October 25, 2025 • 13 mins
The Prime Minister is off to the East Asia Summit in Malaysia today, before he heads to South Korea to attend the APEC summit.
Xi Jinping will be in attendence, and he's due to meet with President Donald Trump on the 30th of October.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks
ab SO.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
The Prime Minister Chris Fhlux and he's off to the
East Asia Summit in Malaysia today known as the Asian Summit,
before he heads to South Korea to attend the APEX Summit.
It's a chance for New Zealand to show where we
stand on trade, security and our biggest trade relationships. There
are many leaders who are going to be attending and
everything will be covered from regional security to climate cooperation
and economic growth. Jijinping will also be there. He's due
(00:32):
to meet with President Trump on the thirtieth. I think
is going to both both summits and the University of
Alkan professor of International Relations, Stephen Hoadley, he joins me.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Now, good afternoon, Good afternoon, Jim.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Hey, what can we expect from these summits? Broadly speaking?
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Lots of words?
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Now that's what you're going to say.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
I don't mean to be cynical, but I've lived through
a number of these APEX summits before and there is
a lot of posturing, a lot of aspirational sentiments, a
lot of promises made and never kept. That's not to
say it's not worthwhile. I mean, Christopher Luxan will meet
(01:18):
his counterparts and more important, his officials, so we never
hear about they'll be meeting their counterparts and they won't
make the news, but they may stitch up some small
deals that will be significant for New Zealand. And this
is where I think the real business is done.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Actually, that was going to be my question as to
who are or what roles that the officials will play,
because as you know, there's the photo opportunities in the
handshakes with heads of state, but are they meaningful deals
that can be done? I guess you know we should
draw a line between aisy And and Ipek, but let's talk
about as what we expect we can get.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Well, there's the same in both cases. The officials will
work up the details, they may find their agreement, they
will get it down on paper, they'll check it with
their negotiating counterparts, and then they'll take it to the
political masters and that's where Todd McLay and Christopher Luxen
will come into play, maybe Winston Peters, and if they
(02:18):
approve it, then that becomes official policy. And that's a
pretty normal process. So a lot of it we don't see.
We'll see the headlines. You and I will talk about
what they would like to do, like peace in the
world and the elimination of tariffs and economic cooperation. This
is all good stuff, but it happens in very small steps.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
I guess, because the headline grabbing sort of questions are
always will we meet with Trump and things like that.
But who should we specifically be focusing on in terms
of getting something meaningful for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Well, again, it depends on the particular issue. I think
the major issue is that New Zealand is encourage a
fifteen percent tariff Australia only a ten percent tariff. That
means the products which are quite similar from the two countries,
agricultural products, dairy products, meat, horticulture, we're at five percent
(03:18):
disadvantage to Australia. And so the officials will be saying
to the American officials, that's unfair. What's the ground, what's
the reason for that? Can that be modified? Can we
make an exception for New Zealand on a particular product?
And that's again we won't hear about that unless it
is agreed to. And that's what New Zealand will be
(03:39):
probing for soft points, if you will. In the American position,
it'll be lobbying more generally in the public talks for
reduction of tariffs, generally for working more closely with China
on economic issues, while at the same time resisting China's economic, military,
(04:02):
and political aggressiveness. And it's going to be a mixed picture.
And that's what diplomacy is all about. And we hope
our dip diplomats are well primed to be on balance
working to New Zealand's interests.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
So I guess they won't be playing any videos of
Ronald Reagan talking about what he thinks tariffs are about.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Well, I think that was very clever of the Ontario premiere,
and it was right on the nose and totally accurate.
That I applaud him. But of course Canada is suffering
the consequences, and the American producers and consumers of Canadian
goods and Canadian raw materials and Canadians spare parts, they're
(04:47):
also suffering. So everybody is suffering from that because of
Donald Trump has taken personal offense to what seems to
ordinary people callon sense.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
How would it work if we were going to try
and get that parody with Australia getting out tariff down
from fifteen to ten percent.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
What it be?
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Does it rely on just the officials? I mean, would
Donald Trump care enough to rubber stampitt or how do
you reckon it would work with that? And of course
Todd McLay is probably the guy who will be doing
a lot of hard heavy lifting.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
There's he's got a lot of experience. This is a
second time around and if anybody can do it, he can.
But to some very good people in Washington, then again
we don't hear very much about. And they've been working
away at this for weeks months prior to this, these
meetings in Asian and in South Korea, so hopefully they'll
(05:41):
have found some ways to accommodate US concerns. There may
be some arguments. Unfortunately. The way the Japanese and others
have gotten big deals is by agreeing to make big
investments in American industry. Well, New Zealand doesn't have that
kind of cash, doesn't It isn't able to bring heavy,
(06:03):
heavy money to bear, only logic, persuasion and being nice.
And that's what New Zealand has. It's real pure diplomacy
in many respects. We can't swing any kind of economic
clubs or military clubs the way the Japanese could. I mean,
the Japanese are an important military partner to hold the
(06:24):
line against China. Now that's very significant for them. We've
got nothing like that. Even Australia can offer more than
we can. So we're in a pretty weak position. But
doubt the officials are going to use every bit of
logic they can and indicate that the trade balance is
in fact becoming more even, and that the Trump administration
(06:46):
should look to the future and say, look, there is
no rationale drop the tariff down to ten percent, or
maybe make an exception for particular products like dairy products
or Kiwi fruit, anything that's popular with the American consumer,
and bring down the prices for the American consumilar at
the grocery store.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Any chance. What are the chances of Luxon actually meeting
with Trump?
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Pretty small A brief meeting. It's possible, but Trump is
going to be very busy. In fact, one commentary from
the CSIS Washington doubted that Trump would even attend that
as he gets the PIP with Hugh Jenping. If he
decides that nothing useful can happen if he doesn't want
(07:35):
to talk to Carney in Canada anymore, he might skip
the whole thing, and and or Ipeg. Well again his
total speculation, and he may go to both meetings. But
on hand he's a bilateralist. Remember he doesn't like international organizations.
He's not a multilateralist, so he may just go straight
(07:57):
and talk to particular leaders and he's ring them up
and say come come and see me in my hotel suite,
and of course they will come running immediately if the
President calls, one by one, and he'll he'll put his
case to them liut of pressure and so forth, and
skipped the bilaterals and the rhetoric entirely. So this is
(08:19):
something we might want to watch.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
I wonder if Christopher Luxan maybe be better if he
took up golf, and then there'll be a chance of
meeting Trumpet on the golf course.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Of course, maclay and stayed home and worked on getting
New Zealand moving again.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
So what is okay? So you've expressed doubts as to
whether the meeting between Trump and Jesi and Pings are
likely to take place as well, I guess depending on
what do we look for from then what are the
big headlines that we might come out of APEC.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Terence and rare earth metals are the two, and then
Taiwan as a side issue. Now, these economic meetings often
morphed into security meetings. They did when APEC was in
Auckland in the year two thousand and East Timor, the
Indonesian aggression towards East Timor was on the table, and
(09:09):
the leaders got together and they set up a peacekeeping
force led by Australia New Zealand as second in command.
And so it is possible that in fact, a lot
of the discussion will quickly morph to what to do
about North Korea's nuclear weapons and nuclear testing and missile tests,
what to do about China's aggression Taiwan because Taiwan is
(09:34):
a member of APEX strangely enough, and so the Chinese
and the Taiwanese leaders will and officials will be in
the same room and hopefully will be civil to each other,
and so there could be security issues that arise. Remember
seven days before it actually happens that they say it
(09:56):
politics A week is a long time. Well, we don't
know what might happen. There might be some military action,
there might be accidents, there might be fatality, There could
be a loss of patience on one side or the other.
The meeting with Trump and she that is scheduled made
and be unscheduled at a moment's notice, and so we
(10:17):
should we should really have this conversation in about six
days tim.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
Okay, aside from Trump, then for us at ipeg, are
there any sort of is there any low hanging fruit
for us to sort of be aiming at, aiming at.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
Well, electronic commerce that's pretty well stitched up. We do
have an electronic commerce agreement in I can't think of
anything except generally trying to reinforce the multilateral nature of
effective trade and to push back against the economic nationalism
(10:54):
that seems to be on the rise, to indicate that
to the Chinese and the North Koreans on the one side,
to Trump and the others on the other side, all
economic nationalists that this is not good for the world economy.
Economists will say, it's not good for consumers, it's harmful,
(11:15):
and it leads to strife that could be political and
military strife. So that kind of urging that New Zealand,
which has always done will continue to do so specific
low hanging fruit, well, I think maybe an interview with
a trade official might be more fruitful. Not to pun Yeah,
(11:40):
but New Zealand's position is quite clear the trade liberalization,
globalization is good for particularly small countries, and that New
Zealand will continue to argue for that line.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Just quickly, This is a slightly different subject. But I'm
not sure if you have a take on this at all,
but the movement of the aircraft carrier gerald Ford being
sent to the Caribbean. What's your take on that, because
it seems on its it's a pretty significant escalation of
pompous overkill.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
There's no need for a carrier off the coast of Venezuela.
There's already half a dozen very heavy warships, cruisers, destroyers
and frigates. No doubt there'll be a few submarines that
we don't know where they are. This is really a
show of force by Trump, just as sending the troops
(12:34):
to Chicago and Washington and Los Angeles is. I deplore it.
I think it is clearly unnecessary against international law to
blow ships or blow boats in the high seas without
any investigation and no evidence that we're aware of that
these were in fact drug boats, and even if they are,
(12:56):
the remedy is arrest and trial rather than immediate assassination.
So I think that the the US military must be
scratching their heads and say, what kind of a commander
in chief do we have that's wasting our time when
we've got rising China, We've got Russia aggression in Ukraine.
(13:18):
We've got so many things the US military could be
doing constructively in the Middle East, for example, to stabilize
the situation in Gaza. But now this is a I
think an utter waste of time and money, and I
don't think you're going to produce a good result.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
The Jingo wester politics of distraction possibly as well. Hey Stephen,
I really appreciate your time this afternoon. Thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
You're welcome to him anytime.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Bye bye. That is Stephen Higley, Professor of International License
at the University of All Kinds.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks it'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks
ab SO.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
The Prime Minister Chris Fhlux and he's off to the
East Asia Summit in Malaysia today known as the Asian Summit,
before he heads to South Korea to attend the APEX Summit.
It's a chance for New Zealand to show where we
stand on trade, security and our biggest trade relationships. There
are many leaders who are going to be attending and
everything will be covered from regional security to climate cooperation
and economic growth. Jijinping will also be there. He's due
(00:32):
to meet with President Trump on the thirtieth. I think
is going to both both summits and the University of
Alkan professor of International Relations, Stephen Hoadley, he joins me.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Now, good afternoon, Good afternoon, Jim.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Hey, what can we expect from these summits? Broadly speaking?
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Lots of words?
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Now that's what you're going to say.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
I don't mean to be cynical, but I've lived through
a number of these APEX summits before and there is
a lot of posturing, a lot of aspirational sentiments, a
lot of promises made and never kept. That's not to
say it's not worthwhile. I mean, Christopher Luxan will meet
(01:18):
his counterparts and more important, his officials, so we never
hear about they'll be meeting their counterparts and they won't
make the news, but they may stitch up some small
deals that will be significant for New Zealand. And this
is where I think the real business is done.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Actually, that was going to be my question as to
who are or what roles that the officials will play,
because as you know, there's the photo opportunities in the
handshakes with heads of state, but are they meaningful deals
that can be done? I guess you know we should
draw a line between aisy And and Ipek, but let's talk
about as what we expect we can get.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Well, there's the same in both cases. The officials will
work up the details, they may find their agreement, they
will get it down on paper, they'll check it with
their negotiating counterparts, and then they'll take it to the
political masters and that's where Todd McLay and Christopher Luxen
will come into play, maybe Winston Peters, and if they
(02:18):
approve it, then that becomes official policy. And that's a
pretty normal process. So a lot of it we don't see.
We'll see the headlines. You and I will talk about
what they would like to do, like peace in the
world and the elimination of tariffs and economic cooperation. This
is all good stuff, but it happens in very small steps.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
I guess, because the headline grabbing sort of questions are
always will we meet with Trump and things like that.
But who should we specifically be focusing on in terms
of getting something meaningful for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Well, again, it depends on the particular issue. I think
the major issue is that New Zealand is encourage a
fifteen percent tariff Australia only a ten percent tariff. That
means the products which are quite similar from the two countries,
agricultural products, dairy products, meat, horticulture, we're at five percent
(03:18):
disadvantage to Australia. And so the officials will be saying
to the American officials, that's unfair. What's the ground, what's
the reason for that? Can that be modified? Can we
make an exception for New Zealand on a particular product?
And that's again we won't hear about that unless it
is agreed to. And that's what New Zealand will be
(03:39):
probing for soft points, if you will. In the American position,
it'll be lobbying more generally in the public talks for
reduction of tariffs, generally for working more closely with China
on economic issues, while at the same time resisting China's economic, military,
(04:02):
and political aggressiveness. And it's going to be a mixed picture.
And that's what diplomacy is all about. And we hope
our dip diplomats are well primed to be on balance
working to New Zealand's interests.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
So I guess they won't be playing any videos of
Ronald Reagan talking about what he thinks tariffs are about.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Well, I think that was very clever of the Ontario premiere,
and it was right on the nose and totally accurate.
That I applaud him. But of course Canada is suffering
the consequences, and the American producers and consumers of Canadian
goods and Canadian raw materials and Canadians spare parts, they're
(04:47):
also suffering. So everybody is suffering from that because of
Donald Trump has taken personal offense to what seems to
ordinary people callon sense.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
How would it work if we were going to try
and get that parody with Australia getting out tariff down
from fifteen to ten percent.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
What it be?
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Does it rely on just the officials? I mean, would
Donald Trump care enough to rubber stampitt or how do
you reckon it would work with that? And of course
Todd McLay is probably the guy who will be doing
a lot of hard heavy lifting.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
There's he's got a lot of experience. This is a
second time around and if anybody can do it, he can.
But to some very good people in Washington, then again
we don't hear very much about. And they've been working
away at this for weeks months prior to this, these
meetings in Asian and in South Korea, so hopefully they'll
(05:41):
have found some ways to accommodate US concerns. There may
be some arguments. Unfortunately. The way the Japanese and others
have gotten big deals is by agreeing to make big
investments in American industry. Well, New Zealand doesn't have that
kind of cash, doesn't It isn't able to bring heavy,
(06:03):
heavy money to bear, only logic, persuasion and being nice.
And that's what New Zealand has. It's real pure diplomacy
in many respects. We can't swing any kind of economic
clubs or military clubs the way the Japanese could. I mean,
the Japanese are an important military partner to hold the
(06:24):
line against China. Now that's very significant for them. We've
got nothing like that. Even Australia can offer more than
we can. So we're in a pretty weak position. But
doubt the officials are going to use every bit of
logic they can and indicate that the trade balance is
in fact becoming more even, and that the Trump administration
(06:46):
should look to the future and say, look, there is
no rationale drop the tariff down to ten percent, or
maybe make an exception for particular products like dairy products
or Kiwi fruit, anything that's popular with the American consumer,
and bring down the prices for the American consumilar at
the grocery store.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Any chance. What are the chances of Luxon actually meeting
with Trump?
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Pretty small A brief meeting. It's possible, but Trump is
going to be very busy. In fact, one commentary from
the CSIS Washington doubted that Trump would even attend that
as he gets the PIP with Hugh Jenping. If he
decides that nothing useful can happen if he doesn't want
(07:35):
to talk to Carney in Canada anymore, he might skip
the whole thing, and and or Ipeg. Well again his
total speculation, and he may go to both meetings. But
on hand he's a bilateralist. Remember he doesn't like international organizations.
He's not a multilateralist, so he may just go straight
(07:57):
and talk to particular leaders and he's ring them up
and say come come and see me in my hotel suite,
and of course they will come running immediately if the
President calls, one by one, and he'll he'll put his
case to them liut of pressure and so forth, and
skipped the bilaterals and the rhetoric entirely. So this is
(08:19):
something we might want to watch.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
I wonder if Christopher Luxan maybe be better if he
took up golf, and then there'll be a chance of
meeting Trumpet on the golf course.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Of course, maclay and stayed home and worked on getting
New Zealand moving again.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
So what is okay? So you've expressed doubts as to
whether the meeting between Trump and Jesi and Pings are
likely to take place as well, I guess depending on
what do we look for from then what are the
big headlines that we might come out of APEC.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Terence and rare earth metals are the two, and then
Taiwan as a side issue. Now, these economic meetings often
morphed into security meetings. They did when APEC was in
Auckland in the year two thousand and East Timor, the
Indonesian aggression towards East Timor was on the table, and
(09:09):
the leaders got together and they set up a peacekeeping
force led by Australia New Zealand as second in command.
And so it is possible that in fact, a lot
of the discussion will quickly morph to what to do
about North Korea's nuclear weapons and nuclear testing and missile tests,
what to do about China's aggression Taiwan because Taiwan is
(09:34):
a member of APEX strangely enough, and so the Chinese
and the Taiwanese leaders will and officials will be in
the same room and hopefully will be civil to each other,
and so there could be security issues that arise. Remember
seven days before it actually happens that they say it
(09:56):
politics A week is a long time. Well, we don't
know what might happen. There might be some military action,
there might be accidents, there might be fatality, There could
be a loss of patience on one side or the other.
The meeting with Trump and she that is scheduled made
and be unscheduled at a moment's notice, and so we
(10:17):
should we should really have this conversation in about six
days tim.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
Okay, aside from Trump, then for us at ipeg, are
there any sort of is there any low hanging fruit
for us to sort of be aiming at, aiming at.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
Well, electronic commerce that's pretty well stitched up. We do
have an electronic commerce agreement in I can't think of
anything except generally trying to reinforce the multilateral nature of
effective trade and to push back against the economic nationalism
(10:54):
that seems to be on the rise, to indicate that
to the Chinese and the North Koreans on the one side,
to Trump and the others on the other side, all
economic nationalists that this is not good for the world economy.
Economists will say, it's not good for consumers, it's harmful,
(11:15):
and it leads to strife that could be political and
military strife. So that kind of urging that New Zealand,
which has always done will continue to do so specific
low hanging fruit, well, I think maybe an interview with
a trade official might be more fruitful. Not to pun Yeah,
(11:40):
but New Zealand's position is quite clear the trade liberalization,
globalization is good for particularly small countries, and that New
Zealand will continue to argue for that line.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Just quickly, This is a slightly different subject. But I'm
not sure if you have a take on this at all,
but the movement of the aircraft carrier gerald Ford being
sent to the Caribbean. What's your take on that, because
it seems on its it's a pretty significant escalation of
pompous overkill.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
There's no need for a carrier off the coast of Venezuela.
There's already half a dozen very heavy warships, cruisers, destroyers
and frigates. No doubt there'll be a few submarines that
we don't know where they are. This is really a
show of force by Trump, just as sending the troops
(12:34):
to Chicago and Washington and Los Angeles is. I deplore it.
I think it is clearly unnecessary against international law to
blow ships or blow boats in the high seas without
any investigation and no evidence that we're aware of that
these were in fact drug boats, and even if they are,
(12:56):
the remedy is arrest and trial rather than immediate assassination.
So I think that the the US military must be
scratching their heads and say, what kind of a commander
in chief do we have that's wasting our time when
we've got rising China, We've got Russia aggression in Ukraine.
(13:18):
We've got so many things the US military could be
doing constructively in the Middle East, for example, to stabilize
the situation in Gaza. But now this is a I
think an utter waste of time and money, and I
don't think you're going to produce a good result.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
The Jingo wester politics of distraction possibly as well. Hey Stephen,
I really appreciate your time this afternoon. Thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
You're welcome to him anytime.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Bye bye. That is Stephen Higley, Professor of International License
at the University of All Kinds.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks it'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
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