May 18, 2025 • 9 mins
Finance Minister Nicola Willis will unveil her second budget on Thursday - and she's remaining tight lipped on what could be inside. What can we expect?
Also, Parliament will tomorrow debate the Privileges Committee's recommendation to suspend three Te Pati Maori MPs. How long could this debate go on?
Newstalk ZB political editor Jason Walls joined Nick Mills for the Beehive Buzz.
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Wellington Mornings podcast with Nick Mills
from News Talks ed B Direct from News Talks, Edb's
team that Tolerance the bee Hive buzz Hi bus.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Joining us for the Bee High buzz is news Talk,
said be Political editor Jason Wall's morning.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Jayson, Good morning Neck. How are you today?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I'm doing great? Four day working week. We've just been
talking about four days of schooling week. Do you like
the idea of four day working week?
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Just quickly, it would never work in journalism because everything
always happens all the time. You just kind of need
to be on the idea of having one day off
a week just kind of doesn't fly because everybody still
needs the news, right So in theory, yes, but I
just think it wouldn't be It's not a practicality for
someone in the line of work like I am in.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Yeah, And you know, the interesting thing is this Sunday
thing seems to be this government's big sort of soapbox,
isn't it. I Mean, they always releasing something on a
Sunday so they can get it on the Sunday news,
which is kind of like a little bit frustrating for
someone that works in journalism like you because you don't
get that someday off even But anyway, Tommy.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
They've done it. They've done They've done it deliberately because
you'll notice that the Prime Minister does a Monday morning
media with Hosking and the Lake now, so it's yeah,
it's they've they've kind of changed the whole game a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Yeah, and I mean it's good effect that's working for them.
Let's talk about budget. It's budget week. What can we expect.
I'm going to ask you about the lock up situation
at the end because it's the last chance to talk
to you beforehand. But what what's the big what is
the big thing apart from KIW Saver when everybody's saying
something's going to change with key we saver and when
this rumors like this, we're normally correct.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Yeah, I mean the Nicola Willis has really been dropping
these sort of fiscal breadcrumbs on the way up to
budget day, and this usually happens. They have a bunch
of what are called pre budget announcements where they say, hey,
this is going to be in the budget, this is
how much it's going to cost. And it's just the
way of them sprinkling a few things before they get
to the actual big day itself, because it can be
(02:02):
an overwhelming amount of news. I mean, there is just
all sorts of new funding lines that are in there,
so it's their way of just highlighting a few things early.
But the big things we'll be looking for is, you know,
is there a big, glitzy, glam announcement about some spending
initiative or is it just going to be a complete
sort of sad fest where we have to look at
(02:22):
the numbers and say, we'll hang on a second, there's
actually no money for anything anymore. And now we do
know that the operating allowance, that is the amount of
new money going into the budget is going to be
less than we've seen in previous years, at one point
three billion dollars, which you know, the opposition is called
this austerity, and I don't think the opposition really knows
what austerity is because if it was, that number would
(02:44):
be zero, not one point three billion dollars. But one
thing we are going to be getting is a lot
of savings quote unquote, according to Nikola willis things that
the government have looked at decided that they're going to cut.
So they can fund other things, so we'll be keeping
a close eye on that.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
I would say, Nick, how does one point three billion
compare to the last two budgets of the labor government.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Well, I mean it was Nikola Willis. She had originally
had two point four billion dollars and then she brought
it down to one point three under the Great rob
and the Grant Robertson years. I mean it was anywhere
from about three point four billion dollars to upwards. I mean,
you know, the COVID budget was billions and billions and billions,
So we don't really count that one because it was
a little bit out of the ordinary, but it's certainly
(03:29):
a lot less than we saw under the previous government.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
What do you think is going to be the major shock?
I mean you're in it, you're around it, you hear it.
I mean you know people talk, I mean, what is
the what's the major major thing that you think is
going to happen this budget? Because there's always one thing
that we all talk about on Friday morning, isn't it?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Yeah? And I think it's going to be how much
money the government has saved in these pay equity pay
equity law changes. There will be no surprise to anybody
listening that that was the big news of last week
and the week before, and it's going to be a
big story this week because we've always been told we're
going to have to wait till the budget to get
a sense of how much money has been saved from
(04:09):
changing those pay equity arrangements. So i'd imagine that would
be something that would be high up on people's list
of interest come Thursday afternoon.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
I think they've got themselves in a different difficult position
with that, though, because if they start screaming from the
rooftops how much they're saving because of the pay equity
think situation, that could go further. I mean, it's a
fire that's going they don't need to put petrol on.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
It, exactly. And I think that they know they've taken
a lot of the heat for the last three weeks,
So any sort of criticism on them on the day
might be sort of it might be dampened a little
bit because we know what's happened, and the arguments have
already been made rather than just the number, and I
think the arguments are more newsworthy than the number, even
(04:50):
though the number is going to be very interesting in
terms of how the government's put the whole document together.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Okay, before I get onto what's going on tomorrow, I
want to talk to you about the lockup because a
lot of our listeners will be interested. Once again, how
many people do you think will be in the lockup
for budget all?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Anywhere between two hundred and fifty and three hundred people,
I would say, And that's not all journalists. I mean
there's a lot of industry experts that are there for
the likes of A and Z have got some of
their economists in there famously. Now the CTU has been
allowed back in, as have the Taxpayers Union. But there's
also a small army of Treasury officials who stand along
the outside and are there to answer any questions that
(05:29):
we have about the numbers. You'll never see them referenced
or really talked about because they're there on and off
the record basis, which means that we could say, hey,
what page do I find the new spending initiative for
let's say sixty five thousand new buses across the country,
And they'll say, if you go to page seventy seven,
you'll have the amount of money there that was just
an example, by the way, I have no knowledge if
(05:50):
there's going to be sixty five buses in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
We get that. Hell, I mean, how exact is a
lock up? Can you if you wanted to go out
and use your phone? I mean go out and leave?
Can you leave or not?
Speaker 3 (06:04):
Technically no, once you're in your in, But I will
say back in twenty nineteen, when the Treasury we're having
an issue with a guy called Gabriel mclouth who was
the former Treasury secretary, and there was some issues around
some budget information being leaked. He was under an enormous
amount of pressure and myself and a couple of other
journalists spotted him in the budget lockups. We went a
(06:24):
bee line over to him to ask him some questions
and he left and we followed him out, and technically
we weren't allowed back in, but they allowed us back in.
And I've actually got a letter on my desk from
the then Speaker, Trevor Mallard titled quote apparent breaches of
protocol for filming and interviewing in polmit buildings. So there's
a cautionary tale there that if you leave, you're not
(06:45):
supposed to be allowed back in.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
But I mean, have you got some piece of information
from the budget and you said, oh, no, I'm not
feeling well, I'm leaving, and then go and start writing
about it. I mean, that could have happened, couldn't it.
So it's not technically a locker. It's a lock up.
But once you leave, you can leave him you can't
get back in.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Well, technically yes, but you've signed a waiver and you've
agreed to the term and conditions of a lock up.
So if you leave, even if you're out before the
embargo lifts, you can't publish any information and if you do,
you will never be allowed back in. I mean, poor
Wall Street Journal a couple of years ago one of
their reporters filed a story and because of a quirk
of the system, that story went early and they were
(07:24):
barred from a budget lock up for a number of years.
So you could do it, but I wouldn't advise it
if you ever wanted to get back in.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Okay, really quickly, because I'm running out of time and
I really want to ask you this Parliament tomorrow we're
having a special debate on the suspension of the three
to party MARII MPs. The Speaker says the punishment is
too severe. Could you quickly in one and a half
minutes tell me how boring this could develop into.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Ben I don't think it will develop into being boring,
and the technically the Speaker never said that it was
too harsh. What he did is he looked at the
ruling from the Privileges Committee, which was a recommendation of
a twenty one day suspension for the two co leaders
and a seven day suspension for Hannah at APTI might
be Clarke said that it's unprecedented because it's such a
long time. So he's allowing MPs to have an unlimited
(08:11):
debate on this issue, where so they can take multiple
calls for as long as they want to and make
amendments to that proposed suspension by the MP by the
Privileges Committee. So it's going to be quite it's going
to be fireworks because you're imagining if your TI Party, Marty,
this might be the last time that you're allowed in
the House for a number of weeks. And we do
(08:33):
have the budget coming up later this week as well,
so they're going to get up many times to speak,
and I imagine the Opposition Party members will as well,
and then of course you'll have the likes of David
Seymour Shane Jones that will be arguing for the suspension.
So wait and see. It's going to be dramatic, yes
or no?
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Do you think that they will uphold the twenty one
days and seven days?
Speaker 3 (08:56):
No? I think it's going to be brought down.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Me and you both we always agree, though we always agree,
very seldom disagree to like. There are seldom, very seldom
that we disagree. But I think, but I think tomorrow
is going to be a giant waste of time and
it annoys me that we're spending Parliament time doing this
this particular proceedings tomorrow. But that's that's my humble opinion.
I know, I don't expect you to have an opinion
(09:19):
on it. It's always good to talk to you. Jason
Wall's News Talks at Best Political Editor. Have a great
day on Thursday, Jason. I'll be thinking of you, mate,
don't have too many sausage rolls.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
I'll be thinking, Ah, you don't have to tell me twice.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
For more from Wellington Mornings with Nick Mills, listen live
to News Talks. There'd be Wellington from nine to am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Wellington Mornings podcast with Nick Mills
from News Talks ed B Direct from News Talks, Edb's
team that Tolerance the bee Hive buzz Hi bus.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Joining us for the Bee High buzz is news Talk,
said be Political editor Jason Wall's morning.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Jayson, Good morning Neck. How are you today?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I'm doing great? Four day working week. We've just been
talking about four days of schooling week. Do you like
the idea of four day working week?
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Just quickly, it would never work in journalism because everything
always happens all the time. You just kind of need
to be on the idea of having one day off
a week just kind of doesn't fly because everybody still
needs the news, right So in theory, yes, but I
just think it wouldn't be It's not a practicality for
someone in the line of work like I am in.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Yeah, And you know, the interesting thing is this Sunday
thing seems to be this government's big sort of soapbox,
isn't it. I Mean, they always releasing something on a
Sunday so they can get it on the Sunday news,
which is kind of like a little bit frustrating for
someone that works in journalism like you because you don't
get that someday off even But anyway, Tommy.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
They've done it. They've done They've done it deliberately because
you'll notice that the Prime Minister does a Monday morning
media with Hosking and the Lake now, so it's yeah,
it's they've they've kind of changed the whole game a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Yeah, and I mean it's good effect that's working for them.
Let's talk about budget. It's budget week. What can we expect.
I'm going to ask you about the lock up situation
at the end because it's the last chance to talk
to you beforehand. But what what's the big what is
the big thing apart from KIW Saver when everybody's saying
something's going to change with key we saver and when
this rumors like this, we're normally correct.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Yeah, I mean the Nicola Willis has really been dropping
these sort of fiscal breadcrumbs on the way up to
budget day, and this usually happens. They have a bunch
of what are called pre budget announcements where they say, hey,
this is going to be in the budget, this is
how much it's going to cost. And it's just the
way of them sprinkling a few things before they get
to the actual big day itself, because it can be
(02:02):
an overwhelming amount of news. I mean, there is just
all sorts of new funding lines that are in there,
so it's their way of just highlighting a few things early.
But the big things we'll be looking for is, you know,
is there a big, glitzy, glam announcement about some spending
initiative or is it just going to be a complete
sort of sad fest where we have to look at
(02:22):
the numbers and say, we'll hang on a second, there's
actually no money for anything anymore. And now we do
know that the operating allowance, that is the amount of
new money going into the budget is going to be
less than we've seen in previous years, at one point
three billion dollars, which you know, the opposition is called
this austerity, and I don't think the opposition really knows
what austerity is because if it was, that number would
(02:44):
be zero, not one point three billion dollars. But one
thing we are going to be getting is a lot
of savings quote unquote, according to Nikola willis things that
the government have looked at decided that they're going to cut.
So they can fund other things, so we'll be keeping
a close eye on that.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
I would say, Nick, how does one point three billion
compare to the last two budgets of the labor government.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Well, I mean it was Nikola Willis. She had originally
had two point four billion dollars and then she brought
it down to one point three under the Great rob
and the Grant Robertson years. I mean it was anywhere
from about three point four billion dollars to upwards. I mean,
you know, the COVID budget was billions and billions and billions,
So we don't really count that one because it was
a little bit out of the ordinary, but it's certainly
(03:29):
a lot less than we saw under the previous government.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
What do you think is going to be the major shock?
I mean you're in it, you're around it, you hear it.
I mean you know people talk, I mean, what is
the what's the major major thing that you think is
going to happen this budget? Because there's always one thing
that we all talk about on Friday morning, isn't it?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Yeah? And I think it's going to be how much
money the government has saved in these pay equity pay
equity law changes. There will be no surprise to anybody
listening that that was the big news of last week
and the week before, and it's going to be a
big story this week because we've always been told we're
going to have to wait till the budget to get
a sense of how much money has been saved from
(04:09):
changing those pay equity arrangements. So i'd imagine that would
be something that would be high up on people's list
of interest come Thursday afternoon.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
I think they've got themselves in a different difficult position
with that, though, because if they start screaming from the
rooftops how much they're saving because of the pay equity
think situation, that could go further. I mean, it's a
fire that's going they don't need to put petrol on.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
It, exactly. And I think that they know they've taken
a lot of the heat for the last three weeks,
So any sort of criticism on them on the day
might be sort of it might be dampened a little
bit because we know what's happened, and the arguments have
already been made rather than just the number, and I
think the arguments are more newsworthy than the number, even
(04:50):
though the number is going to be very interesting in
terms of how the government's put the whole document together.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Okay, before I get onto what's going on tomorrow, I
want to talk to you about the lockup because a
lot of our listeners will be interested. Once again, how
many people do you think will be in the lockup
for budget all?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Anywhere between two hundred and fifty and three hundred people,
I would say, And that's not all journalists. I mean
there's a lot of industry experts that are there for
the likes of A and Z have got some of
their economists in there famously. Now the CTU has been
allowed back in, as have the Taxpayers Union. But there's
also a small army of Treasury officials who stand along
the outside and are there to answer any questions that
(05:29):
we have about the numbers. You'll never see them referenced
or really talked about because they're there on and off
the record basis, which means that we could say, hey,
what page do I find the new spending initiative for
let's say sixty five thousand new buses across the country,
And they'll say, if you go to page seventy seven,
you'll have the amount of money there that was just
an example, by the way, I have no knowledge if
(05:50):
there's going to be sixty five buses in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
We get that. Hell, I mean, how exact is a
lock up? Can you if you wanted to go out
and use your phone? I mean go out and leave?
Can you leave or not?
Speaker 3 (06:04):
Technically no, once you're in your in, But I will
say back in twenty nineteen, when the Treasury we're having
an issue with a guy called Gabriel mclouth who was
the former Treasury secretary, and there was some issues around
some budget information being leaked. He was under an enormous
amount of pressure and myself and a couple of other
journalists spotted him in the budget lockups. We went a
(06:24):
bee line over to him to ask him some questions
and he left and we followed him out, and technically
we weren't allowed back in, but they allowed us back in.
And I've actually got a letter on my desk from
the then Speaker, Trevor Mallard titled quote apparent breaches of
protocol for filming and interviewing in polmit buildings. So there's
a cautionary tale there that if you leave, you're not
(06:45):
supposed to be allowed back in.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
But I mean, have you got some piece of information
from the budget and you said, oh, no, I'm not
feeling well, I'm leaving, and then go and start writing
about it. I mean, that could have happened, couldn't it.
So it's not technically a locker. It's a lock up.
But once you leave, you can leave him you can't
get back in.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Well, technically yes, but you've signed a waiver and you've
agreed to the term and conditions of a lock up.
So if you leave, even if you're out before the
embargo lifts, you can't publish any information and if you do,
you will never be allowed back in. I mean, poor
Wall Street Journal a couple of years ago one of
their reporters filed a story and because of a quirk
of the system, that story went early and they were
(07:24):
barred from a budget lock up for a number of years.
So you could do it, but I wouldn't advise it
if you ever wanted to get back in.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Okay, really quickly, because I'm running out of time and
I really want to ask you this Parliament tomorrow we're
having a special debate on the suspension of the three
to party MARII MPs. The Speaker says the punishment is
too severe. Could you quickly in one and a half
minutes tell me how boring this could develop into.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Ben I don't think it will develop into being boring,
and the technically the Speaker never said that it was
too harsh. What he did is he looked at the
ruling from the Privileges Committee, which was a recommendation of
a twenty one day suspension for the two co leaders
and a seven day suspension for Hannah at APTI might
be Clarke said that it's unprecedented because it's such a
long time. So he's allowing MPs to have an unlimited
(08:11):
debate on this issue, where so they can take multiple
calls for as long as they want to and make
amendments to that proposed suspension by the MP by the
Privileges Committee. So it's going to be quite it's going
to be fireworks because you're imagining if your TI Party, Marty,
this might be the last time that you're allowed in
the House for a number of weeks. And we do
(08:33):
have the budget coming up later this week as well,
so they're going to get up many times to speak,
and I imagine the Opposition Party members will as well,
and then of course you'll have the likes of David
Seymour Shane Jones that will be arguing for the suspension.
So wait and see. It's going to be dramatic, yes
or no?
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Do you think that they will uphold the twenty one
days and seven days?
Speaker 3 (08:56):
No? I think it's going to be brought down.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Me and you both we always agree, though we always agree,
very seldom disagree to like. There are seldom, very seldom
that we disagree. But I think, but I think tomorrow
is going to be a giant waste of time and
it annoys me that we're spending Parliament time doing this
this particular proceedings tomorrow. But that's that's my humble opinion.
I know, I don't expect you to have an opinion
(09:19):
on it. It's always good to talk to you. Jason
Wall's News Talks at Best Political Editor. Have a great
day on Thursday, Jason. I'll be thinking of you, mate,
don't have too many sausage rolls.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
I'll be thinking, Ah, you don't have to tell me twice.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
For more from Wellington Mornings with Nick Mills, listen live
to News Talks. There'd be Wellington from nine to am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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