September 12, 2024 • 32 mins
It was a resounding win for Kamala Harris at Wednesday afternoon's US Presidential debate - but how much can change over the campaign?
And there have been a bunch of job losses in regional New Zealand this week - is there more to come?
Those were the questions for the Friday Faceoff panel this week, with Iron Duke Partners director Phil O'Reilly and NZ Herald deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan.
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Wellington Mornings podcast with Nick Mills
from News Talk said B dissecting the week sublime and
ridiculous Friday faceoff with Quinnovic Property Management a better rental
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Speaker 2 (00:28):
By johny OUs some Friday face Loft this week as
I'm Duke Partner's director fellow Riley, Good morning Phil, I'm
doing well.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
I did ask you because it's a lot of people
say ask him to run for mayor, ask him if
he had run for mayor.
Speaker 4 (00:46):
I did ask him and he said.
Speaker 5 (00:47):
No exactly, so no interest, no hope, I got no.
I'm happy to you my own career.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Mate, Okay, thank you, probably earn about a million times
more than what the may are in and making his
debut on Friday Face Office, New zeal Herald Deputy Political
Editor Thomas Coglan, Morning, Thomas.
Speaker 6 (01:04):
I do will also not be running for Meir, just
rulling myself.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
You why not? Because you know why.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
I know why. I know why you won't run for me,
because you've got to. You've got a red and black
T shirt underneath.
Speaker 6 (01:16):
Your true that is true. I can you know I
will always prefer Christis to Wellington. That might offend and
listeners not a great way to make my dayper on
the show. But I have to admit that that my
heart is as always down south.
Speaker 4 (01:28):
Is it really?
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Because quite often Cantams move to Wellington and fill and
they say, shivers, why the hell didn't we do that
five years earlier?
Speaker 2 (01:35):
I did?
Speaker 5 (01:35):
I did a visit that at Canterbury University the other day.
Is there's some work I'm doing around review the university
system ge that's an impressive place at the moment, really
going well. Is it cheaper housing down because of the
earthquake rebuild and they really together university were really good,
really impressive what they're trying to do there. So I'm
not suggesting it leave VIC students.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
But it is a great we.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Know the city knows that, you know, Canterbury at University
in Canterbury itself, now people are going there by hordes,
you know, they want to go there cheap house.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Is it really just the housings? The university goods, The.
Speaker 6 (02:06):
Universe is fantastic, it's a it's a great university. But
I think the real, the real, the real problem for
the high school students when you're eighteen. You look at
the rents in Wellington, particularly the rents around the university,
like Calbourn ro you know it's expensive to rent there
now and and Ireland lovely part of christ Church much cheaper.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
How long have you lived in Wellington too?
Speaker 6 (02:25):
I have lived here on and off since I moved
here first in two thousand and one, and then I've
been pingponging back and forth for years since then. So
I am a Wellingtonian. I can't. I can't.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
Yeah, no, I'm not trying to make you a welling Tony.
You know I was born in New Plymouth and Ethan
was born in New Plymouth. So we actually we still
say we're from terrec It drives my wife nuts when
we're over. I say, people say where you're from? Myself
and your Plymouth you said you left there when you're five.
You've lived at Wellington all your life, apart.
Speaker 5 (02:52):
From a couple of times resolved decision I have got.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
I think it was where your borders? Where where were
you born? You're Auckland. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
I always knew there was something I did learn about
you wasn't sure what that's what. Okay, let's talk about
the debate It was quite watch wasn't it.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
Thomas.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
I'm going to start with you on this because you
would be exactly like Ethan and probably me. I'm not
the nerd that you and Ethan ab towards the political stuff,
but you would have just sat there and absolutely loved it.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Trump versus Harris. It was almost like a heavyweight title match,
wasn't it.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
The broadcast was amazing, the impeccable star Americans know how
to do this stuff.
Speaker 6 (03:28):
Oh yeah, it's the production values are incredible. I was
Actually it was unhelpfully scheduled during question time, so I
was sitting up there in the press gallery watching it
on my phone. I could see I could see half
the MP's and the debating chambers of phones not really
paying attention to what was going on. But yeah, you're right,
the music, the lighting, that, the production values are incredible.
(03:52):
I personally think there's a bit of a knockout for Harris.
She she didn't have to she was she was on
the attack the whole time. She's she's got a lot
of weaknesses. You know, she's got a very thin policy platform.
She she actually doesn't like talking about policy that much.
Is there is a lot there some of the policies,
the ones that she does have. I quite flawed this
(04:14):
idea of price price freezes. It's a Muldoonist policy. It's
we've we've been there as New Zealanders and it was
a disaster. And and in fact, in America, a lot
of American publications are saying this policy is one that
is she she is unlikely to wear for implement She's
basically planning on not implementing it because she must know
it it won't work. But of course she wasn't talking
(04:36):
about those policies. She wasn't talking about the policies that
that that she she knows won't work. Because the focus,
she was able to shift the focus so effectively to
Trump and turn the whole debate into a referendum on
whether the guy is fit for office, and clearly he isn't.
So massive victory for her.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Come on, Phil, Well, don't let us down, don't let
the Trump support us down.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
I'm sure you're going to have a crack.
Speaker 5 (04:57):
You meant to the theater of politics you know, into
in the modern world. Don't worry about the policies, worry
about the zingers, worry about the lines, worry about the
response worry about the wits, you know, and she was
always going to win on that basis because she's a prosecutor.
She does this stuff. That's what she does. She prosecutes,
she said, she prosecutes purpse, and Trump's the purp right. So,
in terms of just the theater of a political watch,
(05:18):
you're watching a debate, and I didn't see all of it.
I saw chunks of it. She clearly won for that reason.
She's younger, she's she's made a look at it well,
all that stuff, but she's also she had the zingers,
because lawyers do. And to Thomas's point, this will be
a policy light election, but increasingly, of course elections are
policy light. You know, Jesindra Duran got elected having not
(05:38):
much policy other than you know, nuclear free moments or something,
and so that increasingly politics is about the vibe, it's
about the feel, and that's why she's gained this momentum
because she has she does have that. I'm a Thomas,
I think she might't be a great president. She's elected, you.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
Think she could be. We had a few people texting
us saying she could be another Dezender.
Speaker 5 (05:57):
I well, shades of that, because of course the media
is different that though in the US the media won't
give her a free run as they rather did in
New Zealand with j Cinda, and she's got there's a
longer time period where she's she's sitting there. But I
think she's got the right strategy, not not getting too
much into the detail of the policy because to Thomas
the Spoint, she probably doesn't have any very much and
just saying I'm not Trump and I'm really good and
if she does get elected, by the way, the world
(06:19):
should rejoice that a woman of color is the president
of the United States, and that's in a remarkable achievement,
even if but she never mentioned that uty.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
She never mentioned that one, which I thought was a
credit to her. I mean, it could correct me if
I'm wrong.
Speaker 4 (06:31):
I think she might have.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
You know, she gave us that middle class came from
a you know, family, But I don't.
Speaker 6 (06:37):
There was a moment where I think the moderators brought
up Donald Trump's line about the color deciding to be
black recently. The detail of the remarks slightly lost on me,
and she's sort of fopped that off.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
But she didn't actually stand up and say, hey, no,
I'm going to be a black woman and I'm going
to run this country.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
What she was doing that previously though, yes, she's dropped
those lines clearly realizing that at work. So she was
very much it's about me in the politics, you know,
three or four years ago.
Speaker 6 (07:01):
I think she probably learned from Hillary Clinton on that.
On that twenty exteen you know, you could see Hillary
Clinton measuring the drapes in the Oval office. Uh and
and and and there was a lot of commentary that
that Hillary Clinton was playing into about how great it
would be to smash the glass ceiling, and and and
and almost there were moments towards the end there where
(07:23):
where she she almost was getting the tenses wrong that
the ceiling was smashed and she just had to wait
and film to actually to make it official. And that
always plays badly with voters. I was shocked then that
that they were so arrogant about, you know, any even
when you think you deserve to win, treating the public
(07:44):
so contemptuously. It's as if to say, well, look, you know,
I need to smash the ceiling, so get into the
ballot box and you know, vote for me please. Terrible strategy.
And I think Kamla Harris has been quite wise to
just not not go there. It's about you, it's about
the voters of one of her lines of courses. Donald
Trump talks about himself a lot, and I talk about
you a lot. I care about you. Here gets about
himself clever. I think, what did you both make of?
Speaker 7 (08:07):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Come to you, Phil? On this one? First makeup? We've
just heard today.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
I don't know whether you've heard the news, but Trump's
saying no to a rematch, which to me is a defeat.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
Yeah, that's right. Well, he's because he realized he lost
the first one. He says he didn't, but he realizes
he lost. And I see the polling that came out
this morning demonstrated that Harris had had had quite a
significant uptick over the fift few days. Because what Harris
needed to do in that debate was to prove that
she was up for it, was to prove that she
didn't fall over, to prove that she could be president
and hold her ground. And she did that easy, That
(08:37):
was easy, right, And so why would Trump let her
do that again? Why wouldn't he just go back to
his Marga guys and get them out to vote, Because
the selection will be based on about five or six states,
quite small numbers in those five or six states, and
it's about who gets who to vote. And Harris did
a great job of getting her people confident enough to
get out to vote. So Trump's got to just got
(08:58):
to go back and point back at his people say
you've got to vote for me, and he can come
up with all his lies and all his lines on
that basis so unsurprising he turned it down. But the
lictual politics for him will be I'm just going to
go get my goes out to vote. If they vote,
and big numbers them in anyway don't matter.
Speaker 6 (09:12):
Yes, completely, It's it's a it's a funny. I mean
all elections are a wee bit like this, but definitely
American ones. I'm also it's partly it's about, you know,
looking over at some of the Trump people and saying,
vote for me if you're Kamla Harris. But but much
more than that, it is about making sure that your
people actually go out to vote and and his people don't,
rather than convincing people to switch.
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Do you think it's the fetust of him not having
another another go in it?
Speaker 6 (09:35):
Yes, yes I do, but I think it's probably quite
wise because I think you.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Don't think he can beat it in a discussion and debate.
Speaker 6 (09:41):
No, No, I don't. I think I think he isn't
sharp enough and energetic enough, and and and probably more
than that. It's it's the control of his temperament. She
baited him a lot and and made him say, you know,
if you, if you, if you bait him and poke
him in the right way, so he'll sort of explode.
Eating cats, Yeah, the cats stuff that they're eating cats
and dogs in Springfield.
Speaker 5 (10:02):
I think I think of the best Facebook memes of
that year on that stuff, just the credible, brilliant, some of.
Speaker 6 (10:07):
The best if I've ever seen.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
And not mentioning her name. No, it's just a whole
hour and a half. You've never once mentioned her name.
Speaker 6 (10:14):
And he's I think he's wise in his hand, as
are wise to know, you know, if you've got a problem,
and he recognizes he's got the problem with self control,
just to show them.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
Out, Thomas, you've reported on this a bit lately. Two
hundred and thirty people are out of jobs and oakun
it O'rakuoni and Ratahi, about ten percent of the population
of those two towns combined methanecks and Taranaki is also
laying off workers. Both business blame the energy crisis. I mean,
you know you've been getting into the bottom of this,
(10:42):
you've been writing about it. How much more pain is
there to come?
Speaker 6 (10:46):
I potentially quite a bit. I mean I was looking
at it. S's quite hard to find some of this
long term data. But industrial electricity prices have been ticking
up for decades, slowly, and you know, in real terms,
not just some inflation adjusted but in real terms, industrial
electricity prices have have been ticking up slowly but surely
(11:08):
for quite a while, and then this year, as we
all know, they kind of exploded. Now since come back down,
but I think the long term trend is not changing,
so that that really changes the proposition for a lot
of these big industrial producers in New Zealand if they
can't see a future for themselves, if they can't see
any end to this slow rise in industrial electricity prices,
(11:30):
which makes New Zealand manufacturing less competitive because these these
people are often selling their products in New Zealand, but
overseas we are competing with very cheap electricity, you know,
available in China and other parts of the world, so
there seems to be quite a bit of pain to come.
Shane Jones said this week that the Japanese investor in
some Japanese businesses that admit with them saying, you know,
(11:50):
we basically need some some guarantee of lower energy prices
to be able to continue producing here. But it's not
something that government has been able to sort of guarantee
because obviously it takes a long time to build a
new generation to bring those prices down. So yeah, I
think the whole country has dropped the ball on this over.
You know, the government, the gent tailors have dropped the
ball over a long period of time because New Zealand.
(12:12):
One of the gifts of New Zealand was that we
had really cheap electricity, which made our industry very competitive.
And over a couple of decades we've lost that advantage
and now were internationally uncompetitive, and these firms are closing
and small New Zealand towns are suffering because of it.
It's a real tragedy.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Fullough righty, Now you've got a vested interest here, so
I'll let you know.
Speaker 5 (12:32):
I should just declare I worked with Winston Pulp, which
demonstrates how could I am in it the loss of
the debate. But I mean, you say ten percent of
the population of Ohacunion Radhi, it's probably about thirty percent
of the wages actually, because those workers will all be
very highly paid. Some of those workers will be on
six figure salaries, I would think in that stawmill and
the pop mill. So that these energy intensive businesses sitting
(12:52):
in regions are often both the biggest employer but definitely
the highest paid employer by distance. And you can't replace
them once they're gone. They're gone. It's really hard to
go get another big business to go. So we'll block
us themselves down. And you don't think it's an elenational park, No,
well it could be. I mean, I don't want to interfere.
I don't have any special knowledge about that.
Speaker 4 (13:10):
No, no, but you know what I mean.
Speaker 5 (13:11):
But yeah, yes, someone might take over some parts of it,
but it's pretty unlikely. And I think it's an outrage. Actually,
what's going on here. This is a problem of the
energy market. I think this is gen Taylor's you know,
sorry to say it. I think they have been trying
to push the prices up. I think they have been
gaming the system. That's my opinion, and they haven't invested
(13:32):
significantly in energy infrastructure over the years. Add to that,
of course a big shortage and gas. We've got less
gas than we thought we would have and that impacts
a lot of the businesses and certainly impacts the price
of energy in the round. Now, some of that you
can blame on the last government, some silly stuff about
banning oil and gas expiration and of course the silly
idea of building a big lake at la Onslow. According
to the Gentators, slowed them down or stopped them investing
(13:54):
because they didn't have a secure pathway. That's I understand that.
But we are where we are, and I think the
government should have stepped in here and done something. The
reason is, this isn't like the nineteen eighties and nineteen
nineties where the New Zealand economy was going for a
big change and you know we had to move on
and get the change done. This isn't to do with that.
This is actually a healthy business that could keep on
going if only the energy market delivered lower prices, and
(14:16):
it doesn't do.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
You think the government could have done more.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
Absolutely, the government should have steped in here and said
you think they should I say, this is a market's
guy here. I'm proposed to subsidies, but this was clearly
something where you had a spike in energy prices. The
energy prices for that business went from fifteen percent of
their turnover to forty percent. That's ridiculous. You just can't
handle that.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Well, then you put thirty percent in wages on top
of that, You're at seventy percent before we even get
out of bed.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
You just can't. You just cot And Thomas is right.
They're competing with not just low energy producers in China,
but all some places like Canada and Chili, right, So
everybody's prices are a lot lower. So you just can't
make that spin. And I think there was a case
for government stepping and while they sorted that out for
a period of time, and I say that it's absolutely
not my religion, but I looked at the facts of
(14:59):
it and I thought there's something that needs to be
done here. And Thomas is right. I mean, if this
carries on, you are going to see I think more
SIGNI de industrialization of New Zealand particularly and those energy
intensives and they're often in small town New Zealand. They
often might be replaced. And this weekend, and you know
this because you come from there. This weekend, I'll drive
up to New Plymouth and I'll drive through Partier, which
(15:19):
is a dead town these days before bigus And why
is that? Because big industrial left and a freezing work's
left right, and that doesn't come back. So that's what we.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Were told that that would come back. I remember when
that happened. I mean I was you probably do too.
We were told it's only five ten years and someone
else will come to part there and we'll be all
the way again.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
It's got worse, never happened.
Speaker 6 (15:38):
We're quite bad at costing out the social costs of
that as well. And big, big, big firms leave like Philseasio,
maybe you can, maybe you can tie it a business
over until the energy market does what it's meant to do.
And if you don't, you've got benefits, you've got to pay,
You've got your bosial costs. You know. It's a sad truth.
But often when when a big industrial producer leaves the town,
(15:58):
the gangs move in. You have a sort of drug problem.
Where I'm from the South Island, you've seen a bit
of that. The cost of all that lands on the
government's balance sheet, and so you're not really doing a
proper cost benefit analysis. If you just say, well, look,
we're not going to give a firm a subsidy for
five years, but we are going to pay out benefits
and healthcare costs and all that, all the rest of it,
(16:19):
you're not. You're not.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
You think the government should have done more.
Speaker 6 (16:22):
I don't know the facts of what of what was
on the table, but certainly if there's if there is
a pathway which the government seems to be saying there
is to walk to cheaper industrial electricity prices, if you
can get there in a few years time, If if
they say, look, we actually do think there is a
future where we can bend the bend the curve on
industrial electricity prices and go back to cheaper industrial electricity,
(16:44):
which would be a great thing, that would be an
unreservedly good thing for New Zealand. Then yeah, maybe maybe
the answer is that you tied a firm over just.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
Exactly I want to just a yes or no from birth,
because we've got to go to a break. But is
the lifeline of small cities or small towns, small towns
in New Zealand, and a lot of Trouble Film.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Yeap regrettably.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
Yeah, gosh, that's quite scary because I think we're built
from little towns.
Speaker 4 (17:11):
That's part of our DNA.
Speaker 6 (17:14):
Even because it is in New Zealand, a little towns.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Yeah, but you know what I mean, the great towns
of New Zealand. I love using that as an example.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
Phil. I want to start with you on this one.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
Labor leader Chris Hopkins has been on a media buzz
talking tax all week, openly saying that we need some
sort of capital gains tax or wealth tax. What's his
strategy here? Why is he talking so openly about it.
I've got the feeling tell me if I'm right and
wrong he's softening us.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (17:39):
Well, this is a well known political trick. What you
do is you start talking about something and depending on
the public mood, you stop talking about it. You keep
talking about it, right, This happens all the time. The
other thing that's happening, of course, is a massive debate
going on inside Labor about this, and he's having to
moderate that debate. And part of that is about getting
up publicly and talking about it because I suspect he's
been pressured to by the likes of David Parker and
his corcus who are saying, well, we should just get
(18:01):
on and do this. I think it won't work for him.
And I could give you a bit of evidence about this.
I was talking to the UK business community about a
year before the last election when Kiir Starmer was looking
ahead and the Poles over in the UK right, and
I said, what do you make a Kia Starmer? And
they said, oh, we wish you think we can deal
with them. And that was despite the fact he had
some labor relations changes and stuff that the UK business
community hated and hates right. And I said why is that?
(18:24):
They said, because he's up for growth. He talks about
growth a lot. He wants to talk to us about
how we grow the economy. I thought, well, there you go.
And I think that's what's that's what Curcificance is not
doing yet. He's not trying to reach out to say
how can I how can I build a new coalition
around making New Zealand better? And then and then at
that case, maybe tex becomes less of an issue. So
going back to tax just to my mind, actually demonstrates
(18:45):
that their party is still having a debate about that
and not a debate about how to get re elected.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
Yet, Thomas, you're amongst them, You're nine to five every
day of the week, you're amongst them.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
You smell it, you feel it, you're eat it.
Speaker 6 (18:58):
Why are they why?
Speaker 4 (19:02):
I know, well.
Speaker 6 (19:02):
It's not a good smell the.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
White tiles, like that'd be a good spell. But tell
me why there's so much talk and no action.
Speaker 6 (19:11):
Just about everything on the text stuff? Well, the text stuff,
I think, I think, yes, this is a debate that
is not about voters. It is about the Labor Party.
The Labor Party, let's you know, put it out there
like they got their asses kicked last election. And at
the moment, the leader preseptionins is not in a very
(19:33):
strong position because of just how badly that party lost.
He's not like just under Adern He's not like he
was in twenty twenty three when he took over.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Can I just interrupted slightly there because I know our
listeners will be asking, do you think he's not in
a strong position within the party.
Speaker 6 (19:47):
Within the party, Yes, wow, because because I mean, the
best thing he's got going from at the moment is
that no one else wants it and why would you
want it? But obviously if things were to change, then
it wouldn't take too much to roll him. I don't
think that is happening at the moment. I haven't heard
any any whispers that it's happening. But obviously if something
(20:08):
were to happen, then then it wouldn't be too difficult
to do that.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
You really believe that, You really believe that if Karen
mcino he came in one day and he had a
good taking his dog for a good walk and felt
pretty good about his life and said yeah, I'm ready get.
Speaker 6 (20:21):
It, well, it would be. It would be. It's not
clear that whether he'd win it, but it's it is.
They're at the point in the political cycle where where
it is plausible to challenge for it. Now, again, this
isn't happening at the moment. Kieren mcinaughty isn't. But if he,
if he were to like it could happen. So I
(20:44):
think what what is what is happening is that Chrisipkins
isn't talking to the voters he needs to win back.
He's talking to the labor members to say, hey, stick
with me. So that is why that labor members need
to hear him talking about tax They need to hear
him talking about Malori issues. He went quite quite hard
on the sovereignty debate recently, saying that Malory didn't see sovereignty.
(21:04):
He is talking to the Labor base, which is more
left wing than the average New Zealander, and he is
consolidating his position there because that is what he needs
to do right now. It is not about winning people
back from the coalition and that makes politics really messy
because because at the moment in the sort of like
the left wing, if you look at the spectrum of
voters as a third in the middle, third to the left,
(21:25):
third to the right, the third on the left is
being fought over by Labor, the Greens and the Maori Party,
which leaves the coalition to fish for votes and the
other two thirds, which is why they're winning at the moment.
It's why the polling is so strong. Labor probably, if
it wants to win again, probably needs to pivot away
from that left wing third, leave that to the Greens,
(21:46):
the Malorti Party and start fishing in the center again.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
You see, I've always got the had the view since
the election that they fell ow Riley need to actually
try and fish in that Green party part because I
think they lost a lot of their support, their course
of labor support, left wing support to the Greens.
Speaker 5 (22:02):
Elections in New Zealand aus still one in the center.
That's not the case in some other parts of the
world now, but they still are one in the center
in New Zealand. But to Thomas's point, there's this other
thing too, and that is that whenever governments go out
of power, they mourn. They think we were going brilliantly.
Everything we had was fantastic and how dare the public
do this? And all we need to do is wait
(22:23):
and the public will see just how wise and sensible
we are because these new guys coming in and they'll
be useless. You know that happens to true. There's not
a red blue thing. It's a government going out of
power thing. That's what always happens, right, And so it
requires a leader and a group of people inside that
party to say, you know, what we need to do
is stop that, we need to get re elected. And
it's a demonstration. What Chris is doing is a demonstration.
(22:44):
They haven't quite got there yet, but not all of
them have. Let me tell you, some of them are
now reaching out. Barbara Edmonds, for example, is reaching out
to the business community. I'm not trying to cause a
split between her and everybody else, but there are voices
now starting to reach out to say, hey, listen, can
we can we find out what you think? And I
think that's a very very healthy thing. You get to
demonstrates they're starting on their way back. As your gut
telling you that Chris Hipkinson's in trouble, I agree with Tom.
(23:07):
I think where he's at is he is the guy,
but he's got because he is the leader, he's got
the capacity to walk back in and say I'm doing
this thing. I can do this, So I don't think
he's dead man walking. I think he's in a weak position.
I think he can build it back, but he's going
to need to drive that regrowth, which is why I
raised the story of kir Starmer, who came in and
said this is about growth and didn't talk so much
(23:29):
about tax and could get different people thinking, gee, that's
an interesting conversation to have. Right These guys are still
talking about it, but they had three years ago, which
demonstrates their still morning.
Speaker 6 (23:37):
The only thing that they've got going for them on tax,
I think is if they put up a tax policy
with this idea of the tax, which idea if they say, well,
look we'll do a capital gainst tax and the revenue
we raise from that will use to give everyone an
income tax cut. That's that's potentially a threatening policy for
the Coalition because the Coalition will need to find a
way of matching it, and it'll be very hard to
(23:58):
find the money to offer people comparable and come taxt
cut Thoms.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
I want to come to you because you wrote an
amazing article. Now, I've got to confess I only read
the first few lines and thought it's a bit sad
for me to read this right now, but I've got
it and I will read it over the weekend. About
you exploring the question of the mood of Wellington right now,
you almost said, and I only read a little bit
of it, but you almost said that we're blaming. It's
a bit like that, what's that woe me? What's that
(24:23):
woe is me? I love that one?
Speaker 4 (24:25):
You know was that your intention will it?
Speaker 5 (24:28):
Well?
Speaker 6 (24:30):
You know, I admitted to being a contemporary earlier in
the show, but I you know, I love Wellington. I'm
a big I'm a big fan of Wellington and I've
always loved it there is, there is a negative feeling
in the city at the moment, and I wrote that
piece just to have a look at some of the stats,
to to sort of try and objectively calculate whether or
(24:52):
not things are bad in Wellington, whether or not the
city is dying. I've just come from I've just come
from Parliament where a lot of the media were asking
politicians are as Wellington dying? As Wellington dying? And it
just doesn't tell you with my experience of what I
think of Wellington's being right now and the stats doon'et
buried out either unemployment. Unemployment's going up in Wellington, it's
going up around the country. Obviously, interest rates have gone
(25:12):
up a lot, which means that people do lose their jobs.
It's very sad, but unemployment and Wellington's still relatively low,
and it's low by historic standards. Incomes in Wellington are
the highest in the country. Household incomes GDP per capita
is the highest in the country. Welling Wellington is pretty
is relatively unemployed and for decades it's enjoyed low unemployment
(25:34):
and high wages and high wealth. It's a great by
almost every metric. Wellington now and Wellington in the past
has been a great a great place to be. So
what I think really is, you know when last year,
I think as interest rates were going up, the rest
of the country got battered a bit and Wellington probably
had the good times last a bit longer because the
(25:55):
government was continuing to spend here. The government has started
to retract its spending a week bit. So Wellington's just
caught up with where the rest of the country is,
which is, you know, we're in the grips of a
monetary policy tightening cycle and that means that things get
tough and then when the Reserve Bank lowers rates as
they are at the moment, things will get better again.
Speaker 5 (26:12):
It's just the facts.
Speaker 4 (26:13):
Phil.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
You're a spender, You're a guy that goes out. You know,
the feeling of the city. Thomas is right. I mean
now I'm starting to believe that we are beating ourselves up.
Speaker 5 (26:24):
Oh look, I've given my liver to the city for
twenty years mate. So and you and I were just
talking of air about this. For every restaurant you can
see falling over, I'll show you a fantastic one if
you want to turn it around. I mean, I went
to Coji just a free ad to Cogi the other week.
The other day in and Marjorie Bank Street. What it's
a world class restaurant, brilliant. I was in Plank the
other night just as I give my liver for Wellington
(26:46):
going off full, going great, So you can see this.
But what I think has happened is that the city's
lost its swagger, It's lost its spirit. And I'm old
enough to remember Wellington in the nineteen eighties when I
first moved here from Auckland as a young man. I
had more here and less chins back then, young man
about town and fancy free and Wellington was a was
(27:07):
in a slump, and it really was. And I remember
what happened was that Wellington Newspapers, under a great blake
Cordian Wells, a good friend of mine, started an ad
campaign called absolutely Positively Wellington, Unbelievable Archies. Wellington got behind
it and it was a completely private sector initiative. Started
it as an ad campaign and led directly to in
my view, to the building the swagger of Wellington that
I had during the nineties when whole of Courtney Place
(27:29):
got built out. You know well that stadium opened, Stadium open.
All that stuffed led to that swagger about Wellington in
such a way that I would have mates coming over
from Sydney to Wellington for the weekend because Wellington was
a better party town than Sydney.
Speaker 4 (27:41):
Do you know what?
Speaker 3 (27:41):
Do you know what when the sevens were on, there
were people coming from Europe exact, could come to have
a week.
Speaker 6 (27:46):
In a week and again were great.
Speaker 4 (27:47):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 3 (27:48):
I mean, yeah, I'm going to get Ethan to find
that piece of music because I want to play it
to you before we saw it.
Speaker 5 (27:52):
So what's the what's the lesson out of that? I reckon.
The lesson is the business. And I've been talking a
few people over the last few days about this Wellington business.
The private sector just needs to get together. And so
what are we going to do? Don't rely on the
mayor and the council. They're going to go up and
do this always and their stuff that nobody agrees with
very much in the business community. But you know what,
what are we going to do about saying here's what
(28:12):
we're doing. If you want to come with this council,
you can't. You go for your life. But we don't care.
And I think what we've got ourselves into in the
Wellington business community. Is too much asking. We'll ask counsel,
we'll ask Wellington New Zealand, we'll try for a bit
of a subsidy. We'll do a bit of this. Now,
don't do that. Just just get rid of all of that.
What are we going to do to build the vigor
and rebuild the swagger in this town? Who cares?
Speaker 3 (28:33):
Who's being excited? Phil excited? I should be selling from here,
shouldn't You should be saying no? But I'm saying I've
got to replay that back. I've got to get ethan
to put it on a thing. I'm going to repay
it back before I go to bed at nights and
every time I go to bed and might worry about
what we have to do it ourselves.
Speaker 5 (28:46):
Yeah, nobody's built the risk us.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
We built this city on our own, didn't we.
Speaker 5 (28:50):
I was doing a strategization for for a original group
the other day and I wrote down on a piece
of whiteboard to start the session, nobody is coming to
rescue you. And whenever they said, oh, government should I
walk over and point it at the whiteboard. Nobody's going
to rescue you. And nobody's coming to rescue Wennington, and
so the business community and the private sectdo needs to
go on and just get on with it.
Speaker 4 (29:07):
I agree with you. I agree with you. I'm fired up.
Speaker 6 (29:09):
Things probably get better. I think one of the big
one of the one of the big issues at the
moment in this in town. Obviously, Wellington geographically is quite
a small place, and the civic square is basically did
at the moment because half of it's being an earthquake strengthened.
Speaker 7 (29:20):
Now.
Speaker 6 (29:21):
I think that, you know, there are questions about whether
the town hall should have been something else, should should
expensive too late for that. The library that seems to
be on budget. So that's that's okay, probably. But but
once they've both done, you know, and they will be,
those projects will be finished, and that that part of
town will open up again. And when you look at
the business closures that the empty streets, sorry, the empty
shops on some streets, they're really concentrated around that area,
(29:43):
and for good reason, no one's no one's there because
it's a construction stripe.
Speaker 7 (29:48):
The Friday fact, me and Phillow dancing, Thomas probably Thomas
(30:09):
wasn't Boord.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Thomas was at board with this was happening fell alrighty
give us hots and notts please.
Speaker 5 (30:14):
Hot is a great thing to talk about business swagger.
Jeremy Smith from mil Horno came to see me a
few months ago talking about the opportunity of closing Courtney
Place and turn into a bit of a festival. And
they've done it. It's a great example of business getting
on with and saying what's going to happen that the
councilors lent into it New Year's Eve Courtney Place closed party, fantastic.
That's what we need to be doing to build swagger. Yeah,
this ongoing stupidity of Darling Tanner and the Greens. Can
(30:36):
they just move on police? It's just ridiculous and it
doesn't do politics or politicians any good at all. She
should just move on, resign, get out of.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
Ye See, I'm I'm going to argue with that. I'm
on her side. I reckon there's it's a mcbeat's she.
Speaker 5 (30:52):
Should be an adult. She resigned.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
Well, we'll agree to disagree with that. Thomas, I'm sure
has got his own hots and not well my hots.
Speaker 6 (30:59):
When I moved to Wellington, you couldn't really get a
bite to eat down the Parliament end of town. All
the restaurants and bars were down in Cuba Street the
last five years. Contrad to Wellington dying, the whole precinct
around Lampton Key has opened up for dinner a story.
You can get dinner there Woodward where Bougelat used to be.
There's now a bar there, Plank is there, and you
know you can actually come and get a dinner at
(31:20):
Parliament at Bellamies. Now so so hot is the fact
that actually Wellington isn't dying. There's a whole new nightlife precinct.
Well wouldn't exactly called nightlife, but it's a good.
Speaker 4 (31:27):
Place that's stretch a little bit.
Speaker 6 (31:29):
Yeah, I wouldn't got to landon Peter party, but it's
a great place to get a meal now, which which
it wasn't ten years ago.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Not.
Speaker 6 (31:36):
I'm sure you've heard this before in your show. The
road Cones thing is ridiculous. I was coming in here today,
you know, I was nearly like leaving Miramar. It's it's
I think we need to have an adult discussion about
whether or not we've gone a wee bit too crazy
on road Cones.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
You and Peter dudes should go down for coffee because
Peter Dudd.
Speaker 6 (31:51):
Is we're the most original opinion.
Speaker 5 (31:53):
But that's because.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
No, no, but Peter dues say. But every time Peter
Dudes on the show he gets the road codes cub
I'm going to buy him a cone t shirt. Thank
you both for joining us today. It's fabulous to have
you on the show. Thomas Coglan as the first of
you were you were nine and a half out of
ten and in my world, you know what, there's no
such thing as ten out of ten. I don't, So
that's fine, Pillow writer. You're always a nine at a
half out of ten.
Speaker 1 (32:13):
I appreciate you both dissecting the week sublime and ridiculous.
Friday faceoff with Quinovic Property Management a better rental experience
for all. Call eight hundred Quinovic for more from Wellington
Mornings with Nick Mills. Listen live to news talks It'd
be Wellington from nine am weekdays, or follow the podcast
(32:35):
on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Wellington Mornings podcast with Nick Mills
from News Talk said B dissecting the week sublime and
ridiculous Friday faceoff with Quinnovic Property Management a better rental
experience for all. Call on eight hundred Quinnovics.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
By johny OUs some Friday face Loft this week as
I'm Duke Partner's director fellow Riley, Good morning Phil, I'm
doing well.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
I did ask you because it's a lot of people
say ask him to run for mayor, ask him if
he had run for mayor.
Speaker 4 (00:46):
I did ask him and he said.
Speaker 5 (00:47):
No exactly, so no interest, no hope, I got no.
I'm happy to you my own career.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Mate, Okay, thank you, probably earn about a million times
more than what the may are in and making his
debut on Friday Face Office, New zeal Herald Deputy Political
Editor Thomas Coglan, Morning, Thomas.
Speaker 6 (01:04):
I do will also not be running for Meir, just
rulling myself.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
You why not? Because you know why.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
I know why. I know why you won't run for me,
because you've got to. You've got a red and black
T shirt underneath.
Speaker 6 (01:16):
Your true that is true. I can you know I
will always prefer Christis to Wellington. That might offend and
listeners not a great way to make my dayper on
the show. But I have to admit that that my
heart is as always down south.
Speaker 4 (01:28):
Is it really?
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Because quite often Cantams move to Wellington and fill and
they say, shivers, why the hell didn't we do that
five years earlier?
Speaker 2 (01:35):
I did?
Speaker 5 (01:35):
I did a visit that at Canterbury University the other day.
Is there's some work I'm doing around review the university
system ge that's an impressive place at the moment, really
going well. Is it cheaper housing down because of the
earthquake rebuild and they really together university were really good,
really impressive what they're trying to do there. So I'm
not suggesting it leave VIC students.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
But it is a great we.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Know the city knows that, you know, Canterbury at University
in Canterbury itself, now people are going there by hordes,
you know, they want to go there cheap house.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Is it really just the housings? The university goods, The.
Speaker 6 (02:06):
Universe is fantastic, it's a it's a great university. But
I think the real, the real, the real problem for
the high school students when you're eighteen. You look at
the rents in Wellington, particularly the rents around the university,
like Calbourn ro you know it's expensive to rent there
now and and Ireland lovely part of christ Church much cheaper.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
How long have you lived in Wellington too?
Speaker 6 (02:25):
I have lived here on and off since I moved
here first in two thousand and one, and then I've
been pingponging back and forth for years since then. So
I am a Wellingtonian. I can't. I can't.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
Yeah, no, I'm not trying to make you a welling Tony.
You know I was born in New Plymouth and Ethan
was born in New Plymouth. So we actually we still
say we're from terrec It drives my wife nuts when
we're over. I say, people say where you're from? Myself
and your Plymouth you said you left there when you're five.
You've lived at Wellington all your life, apart.
Speaker 5 (02:52):
From a couple of times resolved decision I have got.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
I think it was where your borders? Where where were
you born? You're Auckland. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
I always knew there was something I did learn about
you wasn't sure what that's what. Okay, let's talk about
the debate It was quite watch wasn't it.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
Thomas.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
I'm going to start with you on this because you
would be exactly like Ethan and probably me. I'm not
the nerd that you and Ethan ab towards the political stuff,
but you would have just sat there and absolutely loved it.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Trump versus Harris. It was almost like a heavyweight title match,
wasn't it.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
The broadcast was amazing, the impeccable star Americans know how
to do this stuff.
Speaker 6 (03:28):
Oh yeah, it's the production values are incredible. I was
Actually it was unhelpfully scheduled during question time, so I
was sitting up there in the press gallery watching it
on my phone. I could see I could see half
the MP's and the debating chambers of phones not really
paying attention to what was going on. But yeah, you're right,
the music, the lighting, that, the production values are incredible.
(03:52):
I personally think there's a bit of a knockout for Harris.
She she didn't have to she was she was on
the attack the whole time. She's she's got a lot
of weaknesses. You know, she's got a very thin policy platform.
She she actually doesn't like talking about policy that much.
Is there is a lot there some of the policies,
the ones that she does have. I quite flawed this
(04:14):
idea of price price freezes. It's a Muldoonist policy. It's
we've we've been there as New Zealanders and it was
a disaster. And and in fact, in America, a lot
of American publications are saying this policy is one that
is she she is unlikely to wear for implement She's
basically planning on not implementing it because she must know
it it won't work. But of course she wasn't talking
(04:36):
about those policies. She wasn't talking about the policies that
that that she she knows won't work. Because the focus,
she was able to shift the focus so effectively to
Trump and turn the whole debate into a referendum on
whether the guy is fit for office, and clearly he isn't.
So massive victory for her.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Come on, Phil, Well, don't let us down, don't let
the Trump support us down.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
I'm sure you're going to have a crack.
Speaker 5 (04:57):
You meant to the theater of politics you know, into
in the modern world. Don't worry about the policies, worry
about the zingers, worry about the lines, worry about the
response worry about the wits, you know, and she was
always going to win on that basis because she's a prosecutor.
She does this stuff. That's what she does. She prosecutes,
she said, she prosecutes purpse, and Trump's the purp right. So,
in terms of just the theater of a political watch,
(05:18):
you're watching a debate, and I didn't see all of it.
I saw chunks of it. She clearly won for that reason.
She's younger, she's she's made a look at it well,
all that stuff, but she's also she had the zingers,
because lawyers do. And to Thomas's point, this will be
a policy light election, but increasingly, of course elections are
policy light. You know, Jesindra Duran got elected having not
(05:38):
much policy other than you know, nuclear free moments or something,
and so that increasingly politics is about the vibe, it's
about the feel, and that's why she's gained this momentum
because she has she does have that. I'm a Thomas,
I think she might't be a great president. She's elected, you.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
Think she could be. We had a few people texting
us saying she could be another Dezender.
Speaker 5 (05:57):
I well, shades of that, because of course the media
is different that though in the US the media won't
give her a free run as they rather did in
New Zealand with j Cinda, and she's got there's a
longer time period where she's she's sitting there. But I
think she's got the right strategy, not not getting too
much into the detail of the policy because to Thomas
the Spoint, she probably doesn't have any very much and
just saying I'm not Trump and I'm really good and
if she does get elected, by the way, the world
(06:19):
should rejoice that a woman of color is the president
of the United States, and that's in a remarkable achievement,
even if but she never mentioned that uty.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
She never mentioned that one, which I thought was a
credit to her. I mean, it could correct me if
I'm wrong.
Speaker 4 (06:31):
I think she might have.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
You know, she gave us that middle class came from
a you know, family, But I don't.
Speaker 6 (06:37):
There was a moment where I think the moderators brought
up Donald Trump's line about the color deciding to be
black recently. The detail of the remarks slightly lost on me,
and she's sort of fopped that off.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
But she didn't actually stand up and say, hey, no,
I'm going to be a black woman and I'm going
to run this country.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
What she was doing that previously though, yes, she's dropped
those lines clearly realizing that at work. So she was
very much it's about me in the politics, you know,
three or four years ago.
Speaker 6 (07:01):
I think she probably learned from Hillary Clinton on that.
On that twenty exteen you know, you could see Hillary
Clinton measuring the drapes in the Oval office. Uh and
and and and there was a lot of commentary that
that Hillary Clinton was playing into about how great it
would be to smash the glass ceiling, and and and
and almost there were moments towards the end there where
(07:23):
where she she almost was getting the tenses wrong that
the ceiling was smashed and she just had to wait
and film to actually to make it official. And that
always plays badly with voters. I was shocked then that
that they were so arrogant about, you know, any even
when you think you deserve to win, treating the public
(07:44):
so contemptuously. It's as if to say, well, look, you know,
I need to smash the ceiling, so get into the
ballot box and you know, vote for me please. Terrible strategy.
And I think Kamla Harris has been quite wise to
just not not go there. It's about you, it's about
the voters of one of her lines of courses. Donald
Trump talks about himself a lot, and I talk about
you a lot. I care about you. Here gets about
himself clever. I think, what did you both make of?
Speaker 7 (08:07):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Come to you, Phil? On this one? First makeup? We've
just heard today.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
I don't know whether you've heard the news, but Trump's
saying no to a rematch, which to me is a defeat.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
Yeah, that's right. Well, he's because he realized he lost
the first one. He says he didn't, but he realizes
he lost. And I see the polling that came out
this morning demonstrated that Harris had had had quite a
significant uptick over the fift few days. Because what Harris
needed to do in that debate was to prove that
she was up for it, was to prove that she
didn't fall over, to prove that she could be president
and hold her ground. And she did that easy, That
(08:37):
was easy, right, And so why would Trump let her
do that again? Why wouldn't he just go back to
his Marga guys and get them out to vote, Because
the selection will be based on about five or six states,
quite small numbers in those five or six states, and
it's about who gets who to vote. And Harris did
a great job of getting her people confident enough to
get out to vote. So Trump's got to just got
(08:58):
to go back and point back at his people say
you've got to vote for me, and he can come
up with all his lies and all his lines on
that basis so unsurprising he turned it down. But the
lictual politics for him will be I'm just going to
go get my goes out to vote. If they vote,
and big numbers them in anyway don't matter.
Speaker 6 (09:12):
Yes, completely, It's it's a it's a funny. I mean
all elections are a wee bit like this, but definitely
American ones. I'm also it's partly it's about, you know,
looking over at some of the Trump people and saying,
vote for me if you're Kamla Harris. But but much
more than that, it is about making sure that your
people actually go out to vote and and his people don't,
rather than convincing people to switch.
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Do you think it's the fetust of him not having
another another go in it?
Speaker 6 (09:35):
Yes, yes I do, but I think it's probably quite
wise because I think you.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Don't think he can beat it in a discussion and debate.
Speaker 6 (09:41):
No, No, I don't. I think I think he isn't
sharp enough and energetic enough, and and and probably more
than that. It's it's the control of his temperament. She
baited him a lot and and made him say, you know,
if you, if you, if you bait him and poke
him in the right way, so he'll sort of explode.
Eating cats, Yeah, the cats stuff that they're eating cats
and dogs in Springfield.
Speaker 5 (10:02):
I think I think of the best Facebook memes of
that year on that stuff, just the credible, brilliant, some of.
Speaker 6 (10:07):
The best if I've ever seen.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
And not mentioning her name. No, it's just a whole
hour and a half. You've never once mentioned her name.
Speaker 6 (10:14):
And he's I think he's wise in his hand, as
are wise to know, you know, if you've got a problem,
and he recognizes he's got the problem with self control,
just to show them.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
Out, Thomas, you've reported on this a bit lately. Two
hundred and thirty people are out of jobs and oakun
it O'rakuoni and Ratahi, about ten percent of the population
of those two towns combined methanecks and Taranaki is also
laying off workers. Both business blame the energy crisis. I mean,
you know you've been getting into the bottom of this,
(10:42):
you've been writing about it. How much more pain is
there to come?
Speaker 6 (10:46):
I potentially quite a bit. I mean I was looking
at it. S's quite hard to find some of this
long term data. But industrial electricity prices have been ticking
up for decades, slowly, and you know, in real terms,
not just some inflation adjusted but in real terms, industrial
electricity prices have have been ticking up slowly but surely
(11:08):
for quite a while, and then this year, as we
all know, they kind of exploded. Now since come back down,
but I think the long term trend is not changing,
so that that really changes the proposition for a lot
of these big industrial producers in New Zealand if they
can't see a future for themselves, if they can't see
any end to this slow rise in industrial electricity prices,
(11:30):
which makes New Zealand manufacturing less competitive because these these
people are often selling their products in New Zealand, but
overseas we are competing with very cheap electricity, you know,
available in China and other parts of the world, so
there seems to be quite a bit of pain to come.
Shane Jones said this week that the Japanese investor in
some Japanese businesses that admit with them saying, you know,
(11:50):
we basically need some some guarantee of lower energy prices
to be able to continue producing here. But it's not
something that government has been able to sort of guarantee
because obviously it takes a long time to build a
new generation to bring those prices down. So yeah, I
think the whole country has dropped the ball on this over.
You know, the government, the gent tailors have dropped the
ball over a long period of time because New Zealand.
(12:12):
One of the gifts of New Zealand was that we
had really cheap electricity, which made our industry very competitive.
And over a couple of decades we've lost that advantage
and now were internationally uncompetitive, and these firms are closing
and small New Zealand towns are suffering because of it.
It's a real tragedy.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Fullough righty, Now you've got a vested interest here, so
I'll let you know.
Speaker 5 (12:32):
I should just declare I worked with Winston Pulp, which
demonstrates how could I am in it the loss of
the debate. But I mean, you say ten percent of
the population of Ohacunion Radhi, it's probably about thirty percent
of the wages actually, because those workers will all be
very highly paid. Some of those workers will be on
six figure salaries, I would think in that stawmill and
the pop mill. So that these energy intensive businesses sitting
(12:52):
in regions are often both the biggest employer but definitely
the highest paid employer by distance. And you can't replace
them once they're gone. They're gone. It's really hard to
go get another big business to go. So we'll block
us themselves down. And you don't think it's an elenational park, No,
well it could be. I mean, I don't want to interfere.
I don't have any special knowledge about that.
Speaker 4 (13:10):
No, no, but you know what I mean.
Speaker 5 (13:11):
But yeah, yes, someone might take over some parts of it,
but it's pretty unlikely. And I think it's an outrage. Actually,
what's going on here. This is a problem of the
energy market. I think this is gen Taylor's you know,
sorry to say it. I think they have been trying
to push the prices up. I think they have been
gaming the system. That's my opinion, and they haven't invested
(13:32):
significantly in energy infrastructure over the years. Add to that,
of course a big shortage and gas. We've got less
gas than we thought we would have and that impacts
a lot of the businesses and certainly impacts the price
of energy in the round. Now, some of that you
can blame on the last government, some silly stuff about
banning oil and gas expiration and of course the silly
idea of building a big lake at la Onslow. According
to the Gentators, slowed them down or stopped them investing
(13:54):
because they didn't have a secure pathway. That's I understand that.
But we are where we are, and I think the
government should have stepped in here and done something. The
reason is, this isn't like the nineteen eighties and nineteen
nineties where the New Zealand economy was going for a
big change and you know we had to move on
and get the change done. This isn't to do with that.
This is actually a healthy business that could keep on
going if only the energy market delivered lower prices, and
(14:16):
it doesn't do.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
You think the government could have done more.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
Absolutely, the government should have steped in here and said
you think they should I say, this is a market's
guy here. I'm proposed to subsidies, but this was clearly
something where you had a spike in energy prices. The
energy prices for that business went from fifteen percent of
their turnover to forty percent. That's ridiculous. You just can't
handle that.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Well, then you put thirty percent in wages on top
of that, You're at seventy percent before we even get
out of bed.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
You just can't. You just cot And Thomas is right.
They're competing with not just low energy producers in China,
but all some places like Canada and Chili, right, So
everybody's prices are a lot lower. So you just can't
make that spin. And I think there was a case
for government stepping and while they sorted that out for
a period of time, and I say that it's absolutely
not my religion, but I looked at the facts of
(14:59):
it and I thought there's something that needs to be
done here. And Thomas is right. I mean, if this
carries on, you are going to see I think more
SIGNI de industrialization of New Zealand particularly and those energy
intensives and they're often in small town New Zealand. They
often might be replaced. And this weekend, and you know
this because you come from there. This weekend, I'll drive
up to New Plymouth and I'll drive through Partier, which
(15:19):
is a dead town these days before bigus And why
is that? Because big industrial left and a freezing work's
left right, and that doesn't come back. So that's what we.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Were told that that would come back. I remember when
that happened. I mean I was you probably do too.
We were told it's only five ten years and someone
else will come to part there and we'll be all
the way again.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
It's got worse, never happened.
Speaker 6 (15:38):
We're quite bad at costing out the social costs of
that as well. And big, big, big firms leave like Philseasio,
maybe you can, maybe you can tie it a business
over until the energy market does what it's meant to do.
And if you don't, you've got benefits, you've got to pay,
You've got your bosial costs. You know. It's a sad truth.
But often when when a big industrial producer leaves the town,
(15:58):
the gangs move in. You have a sort of drug problem.
Where I'm from the South Island, you've seen a bit
of that. The cost of all that lands on the
government's balance sheet, and so you're not really doing a
proper cost benefit analysis. If you just say, well, look,
we're not going to give a firm a subsidy for
five years, but we are going to pay out benefits
and healthcare costs and all that, all the rest of it,
(16:19):
you're not. You're not.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
You think the government should have done more.
Speaker 6 (16:22):
I don't know the facts of what of what was
on the table, but certainly if there's if there is
a pathway which the government seems to be saying there
is to walk to cheaper industrial electricity prices, if you
can get there in a few years time, If if
they say, look, we actually do think there is a
future where we can bend the bend the curve on
industrial electricity prices and go back to cheaper industrial electricity,
(16:44):
which would be a great thing, that would be an
unreservedly good thing for New Zealand. Then yeah, maybe maybe
the answer is that you tied a firm over just.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
Exactly I want to just a yes or no from birth,
because we've got to go to a break. But is
the lifeline of small cities or small towns, small towns
in New Zealand, and a lot of Trouble Film.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Yeap regrettably.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
Yeah, gosh, that's quite scary because I think we're built
from little towns.
Speaker 4 (17:11):
That's part of our DNA.
Speaker 6 (17:14):
Even because it is in New Zealand, a little towns.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Yeah, but you know what I mean, the great towns
of New Zealand. I love using that as an example.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
Phil. I want to start with you on this one.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
Labor leader Chris Hopkins has been on a media buzz
talking tax all week, openly saying that we need some
sort of capital gains tax or wealth tax. What's his
strategy here? Why is he talking so openly about it.
I've got the feeling tell me if I'm right and
wrong he's softening us.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (17:39):
Well, this is a well known political trick. What you
do is you start talking about something and depending on
the public mood, you stop talking about it. You keep
talking about it, right, This happens all the time. The
other thing that's happening, of course, is a massive debate
going on inside Labor about this, and he's having to
moderate that debate. And part of that is about getting
up publicly and talking about it because I suspect he's
been pressured to by the likes of David Parker and
his corcus who are saying, well, we should just get
(18:01):
on and do this. I think it won't work for him.
And I could give you a bit of evidence about this.
I was talking to the UK business community about a
year before the last election when Kiir Starmer was looking
ahead and the Poles over in the UK right, and
I said, what do you make a Kia Starmer? And
they said, oh, we wish you think we can deal
with them. And that was despite the fact he had
some labor relations changes and stuff that the UK business
community hated and hates right. And I said why is that?
(18:24):
They said, because he's up for growth. He talks about
growth a lot. He wants to talk to us about
how we grow the economy. I thought, well, there you go.
And I think that's what's that's what Curcificance is not
doing yet. He's not trying to reach out to say
how can I how can I build a new coalition
around making New Zealand better? And then and then at
that case, maybe tex becomes less of an issue. So
going back to tax just to my mind, actually demonstrates
(18:45):
that their party is still having a debate about that
and not a debate about how to get re elected.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
Yet, Thomas, you're amongst them, You're nine to five every
day of the week, you're amongst them.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
You smell it, you feel it, you're eat it.
Speaker 6 (18:58):
Why are they why?
Speaker 4 (19:02):
I know, well.
Speaker 6 (19:02):
It's not a good smell the.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
White tiles, like that'd be a good spell. But tell
me why there's so much talk and no action.
Speaker 6 (19:11):
Just about everything on the text stuff? Well, the text stuff,
I think, I think, yes, this is a debate that
is not about voters. It is about the Labor Party.
The Labor Party, let's you know, put it out there
like they got their asses kicked last election. And at
the moment, the leader preseptionins is not in a very
(19:33):
strong position because of just how badly that party lost.
He's not like just under Adern He's not like he
was in twenty twenty three when he took over.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Can I just interrupted slightly there because I know our
listeners will be asking, do you think he's not in
a strong position within the party.
Speaker 6 (19:47):
Within the party, Yes, wow, because because I mean, the
best thing he's got going from at the moment is
that no one else wants it and why would you
want it? But obviously if things were to change, then
it wouldn't take too much to roll him. I don't
think that is happening at the moment. I haven't heard
any any whispers that it's happening. But obviously if something
(20:08):
were to happen, then then it wouldn't be too difficult
to do that.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
You really believe that, You really believe that if Karen
mcino he came in one day and he had a
good taking his dog for a good walk and felt
pretty good about his life and said yeah, I'm ready get.
Speaker 6 (20:21):
It, well, it would be. It would be. It's not
clear that whether he'd win it, but it's it is.
They're at the point in the political cycle where where
it is plausible to challenge for it. Now, again, this
isn't happening at the moment. Kieren mcinaughty isn't. But if he,
if he were to like it could happen. So I
(20:44):
think what what is what is happening is that Chrisipkins
isn't talking to the voters he needs to win back.
He's talking to the labor members to say, hey, stick
with me. So that is why that labor members need
to hear him talking about tax They need to hear
him talking about Malori issues. He went quite quite hard
on the sovereignty debate recently, saying that Malory didn't see sovereignty.
(21:04):
He is talking to the Labor base, which is more
left wing than the average New Zealander, and he is
consolidating his position there because that is what he needs
to do right now. It is not about winning people
back from the coalition and that makes politics really messy
because because at the moment in the sort of like
the left wing, if you look at the spectrum of
voters as a third in the middle, third to the left,
(21:25):
third to the right, the third on the left is
being fought over by Labor, the Greens and the Maori Party,
which leaves the coalition to fish for votes and the
other two thirds, which is why they're winning at the moment.
It's why the polling is so strong. Labor probably, if
it wants to win again, probably needs to pivot away
from that left wing third, leave that to the Greens,
(21:46):
the Malorti Party and start fishing in the center again.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
You see, I've always got the had the view since
the election that they fell ow Riley need to actually
try and fish in that Green party part because I
think they lost a lot of their support, their course
of labor support, left wing support to the Greens.
Speaker 5 (22:02):
Elections in New Zealand aus still one in the center.
That's not the case in some other parts of the
world now, but they still are one in the center
in New Zealand. But to Thomas's point, there's this other
thing too, and that is that whenever governments go out
of power, they mourn. They think we were going brilliantly.
Everything we had was fantastic and how dare the public
do this? And all we need to do is wait
(22:23):
and the public will see just how wise and sensible
we are because these new guys coming in and they'll
be useless. You know that happens to true. There's not
a red blue thing. It's a government going out of
power thing. That's what always happens, right, And so it
requires a leader and a group of people inside that
party to say, you know, what we need to do
is stop that, we need to get re elected. And
it's a demonstration. What Chris is doing is a demonstration.
(22:44):
They haven't quite got there yet, but not all of
them have. Let me tell you, some of them are
now reaching out. Barbara Edmonds, for example, is reaching out
to the business community. I'm not trying to cause a
split between her and everybody else, but there are voices
now starting to reach out to say, hey, listen, can
we can we find out what you think? And I
think that's a very very healthy thing. You get to
demonstrates they're starting on their way back. As your gut
telling you that Chris Hipkinson's in trouble, I agree with Tom.
(23:07):
I think where he's at is he is the guy,
but he's got because he is the leader, he's got
the capacity to walk back in and say I'm doing
this thing. I can do this, So I don't think
he's dead man walking. I think he's in a weak position.
I think he can build it back, but he's going
to need to drive that regrowth, which is why I
raised the story of kir Starmer, who came in and
said this is about growth and didn't talk so much
(23:29):
about tax and could get different people thinking, gee, that's
an interesting conversation to have. Right These guys are still
talking about it, but they had three years ago, which
demonstrates their still morning.
Speaker 6 (23:37):
The only thing that they've got going for them on tax,
I think is if they put up a tax policy
with this idea of the tax, which idea if they say, well,
look we'll do a capital gainst tax and the revenue
we raise from that will use to give everyone an
income tax cut. That's that's potentially a threatening policy for
the Coalition because the Coalition will need to find a
way of matching it, and it'll be very hard to
(23:58):
find the money to offer people comparable and come taxt
cut Thoms.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
I want to come to you because you wrote an
amazing article. Now, I've got to confess I only read
the first few lines and thought it's a bit sad
for me to read this right now, but I've got
it and I will read it over the weekend. About
you exploring the question of the mood of Wellington right now,
you almost said, and I only read a little bit
of it, but you almost said that we're blaming. It's
a bit like that, what's that woe me? What's that
(24:23):
woe is me? I love that one?
Speaker 4 (24:25):
You know was that your intention will it?
Speaker 5 (24:28):
Well?
Speaker 6 (24:30):
You know, I admitted to being a contemporary earlier in
the show, but I you know, I love Wellington. I'm
a big I'm a big fan of Wellington and I've
always loved it there is, there is a negative feeling
in the city at the moment, and I wrote that
piece just to have a look at some of the stats,
to to sort of try and objectively calculate whether or
(24:52):
not things are bad in Wellington, whether or not the
city is dying. I've just come from I've just come
from Parliament where a lot of the media were asking
politicians are as Wellington dying? As Wellington dying? And it
just doesn't tell you with my experience of what I
think of Wellington's being right now and the stats doon'et
buried out either unemployment. Unemployment's going up in Wellington, it's
going up around the country. Obviously, interest rates have gone
(25:12):
up a lot, which means that people do lose their jobs.
It's very sad, but unemployment and Wellington's still relatively low,
and it's low by historic standards. Incomes in Wellington are
the highest in the country. Household incomes GDP per capita
is the highest in the country. Welling Wellington is pretty
is relatively unemployed and for decades it's enjoyed low unemployment
(25:34):
and high wages and high wealth. It's a great by
almost every metric. Wellington now and Wellington in the past
has been a great a great place to be. So
what I think really is, you know when last year,
I think as interest rates were going up, the rest
of the country got battered a bit and Wellington probably
had the good times last a bit longer because the
(25:55):
government was continuing to spend here. The government has started
to retract its spending a week bit. So Wellington's just
caught up with where the rest of the country is,
which is, you know, we're in the grips of a
monetary policy tightening cycle and that means that things get
tough and then when the Reserve Bank lowers rates as
they are at the moment, things will get better again.
Speaker 5 (26:12):
It's just the facts.
Speaker 4 (26:13):
Phil.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
You're a spender, You're a guy that goes out. You know,
the feeling of the city. Thomas is right. I mean
now I'm starting to believe that we are beating ourselves up.
Speaker 5 (26:24):
Oh look, I've given my liver to the city for
twenty years mate. So and you and I were just
talking of air about this. For every restaurant you can
see falling over, I'll show you a fantastic one if
you want to turn it around. I mean, I went
to Coji just a free ad to Cogi the other week.
The other day in and Marjorie Bank Street. What it's
a world class restaurant, brilliant. I was in Plank the
other night just as I give my liver for Wellington
(26:46):
going off full, going great, So you can see this.
But what I think has happened is that the city's
lost its swagger, It's lost its spirit. And I'm old
enough to remember Wellington in the nineteen eighties when I
first moved here from Auckland as a young man. I
had more here and less chins back then, young man
about town and fancy free and Wellington was a was
(27:07):
in a slump, and it really was. And I remember
what happened was that Wellington Newspapers, under a great blake
Cordian Wells, a good friend of mine, started an ad
campaign called absolutely Positively Wellington, Unbelievable Archies. Wellington got behind
it and it was a completely private sector initiative. Started
it as an ad campaign and led directly to in
my view, to the building the swagger of Wellington that
I had during the nineties when whole of Courtney Place
(27:29):
got built out. You know well that stadium opened, Stadium open.
All that stuffed led to that swagger about Wellington in
such a way that I would have mates coming over
from Sydney to Wellington for the weekend because Wellington was
a better party town than Sydney.
Speaker 4 (27:41):
Do you know what?
Speaker 3 (27:41):
Do you know what when the sevens were on, there
were people coming from Europe exact, could come to have
a week.
Speaker 6 (27:46):
In a week and again were great.
Speaker 4 (27:47):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 3 (27:48):
I mean, yeah, I'm going to get Ethan to find
that piece of music because I want to play it
to you before we saw it.
Speaker 5 (27:52):
So what's the what's the lesson out of that? I reckon.
The lesson is the business. And I've been talking a
few people over the last few days about this Wellington business.
The private sector just needs to get together. And so
what are we going to do? Don't rely on the
mayor and the council. They're going to go up and
do this always and their stuff that nobody agrees with
very much in the business community. But you know what,
what are we going to do about saying here's what
(28:12):
we're doing. If you want to come with this council,
you can't. You go for your life. But we don't care.
And I think what we've got ourselves into in the
Wellington business community. Is too much asking. We'll ask counsel,
we'll ask Wellington New Zealand, we'll try for a bit
of a subsidy. We'll do a bit of this. Now,
don't do that. Just just get rid of all of that.
What are we going to do to build the vigor
and rebuild the swagger in this town? Who cares?
Speaker 3 (28:33):
Who's being excited? Phil excited? I should be selling from here,
shouldn't You should be saying no? But I'm saying I've
got to replay that back. I've got to get ethan
to put it on a thing. I'm going to repay
it back before I go to bed at nights and
every time I go to bed and might worry about
what we have to do it ourselves.
Speaker 5 (28:46):
Yeah, nobody's built the risk us.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
We built this city on our own, didn't we.
Speaker 5 (28:50):
I was doing a strategization for for a original group
the other day and I wrote down on a piece
of whiteboard to start the session, nobody is coming to
rescue you. And whenever they said, oh, government should I
walk over and point it at the whiteboard. Nobody's going
to rescue you. And nobody's coming to rescue Wennington, and
so the business community and the private sectdo needs to
go on and just get on with it.
Speaker 4 (29:07):
I agree with you. I agree with you. I'm fired up.
Speaker 6 (29:09):
Things probably get better. I think one of the big
one of the one of the big issues at the
moment in this in town. Obviously, Wellington geographically is quite
a small place, and the civic square is basically did
at the moment because half of it's being an earthquake strengthened.
Speaker 7 (29:20):
Now.
Speaker 6 (29:21):
I think that, you know, there are questions about whether
the town hall should have been something else, should should
expensive too late for that. The library that seems to
be on budget. So that's that's okay, probably. But but
once they've both done, you know, and they will be,
those projects will be finished, and that that part of
town will open up again. And when you look at
the business closures that the empty streets, sorry, the empty
shops on some streets, they're really concentrated around that area,
(29:43):
and for good reason, no one's no one's there because
it's a construction stripe.
Speaker 7 (29:48):
The Friday fact, me and Phillow dancing, Thomas probably Thomas
(30:09):
wasn't Boord.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Thomas was at board with this was happening fell alrighty
give us hots and notts please.
Speaker 5 (30:14):
Hot is a great thing to talk about business swagger.
Jeremy Smith from mil Horno came to see me a
few months ago talking about the opportunity of closing Courtney
Place and turn into a bit of a festival. And
they've done it. It's a great example of business getting
on with and saying what's going to happen that the
councilors lent into it New Year's Eve Courtney Place closed party, fantastic.
That's what we need to be doing to build swagger. Yeah,
this ongoing stupidity of Darling Tanner and the Greens. Can
(30:36):
they just move on police? It's just ridiculous and it
doesn't do politics or politicians any good at all. She
should just move on, resign, get out of.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
Ye See, I'm I'm going to argue with that. I'm
on her side. I reckon there's it's a mcbeat's she.
Speaker 5 (30:52):
Should be an adult. She resigned.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
Well, we'll agree to disagree with that. Thomas, I'm sure
has got his own hots and not well my hots.
Speaker 6 (30:59):
When I moved to Wellington, you couldn't really get a
bite to eat down the Parliament end of town. All
the restaurants and bars were down in Cuba Street the
last five years. Contrad to Wellington dying, the whole precinct
around Lampton Key has opened up for dinner a story.
You can get dinner there Woodward where Bougelat used to be.
There's now a bar there, Plank is there, and you
know you can actually come and get a dinner at
(31:20):
Parliament at Bellamies. Now so so hot is the fact
that actually Wellington isn't dying. There's a whole new nightlife precinct.
Well wouldn't exactly called nightlife, but it's a good.
Speaker 4 (31:27):
Place that's stretch a little bit.
Speaker 6 (31:29):
Yeah, I wouldn't got to landon Peter party, but it's
a great place to get a meal now, which which
it wasn't ten years ago.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Not.
Speaker 6 (31:36):
I'm sure you've heard this before in your show. The
road Cones thing is ridiculous. I was coming in here today,
you know, I was nearly like leaving Miramar. It's it's
I think we need to have an adult discussion about
whether or not we've gone a wee bit too crazy
on road Cones.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
You and Peter dudes should go down for coffee because
Peter Dudd.
Speaker 6 (31:51):
Is we're the most original opinion.
Speaker 5 (31:53):
But that's because.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
No, no, but Peter dues say. But every time Peter
Dudes on the show he gets the road codes cub
I'm going to buy him a cone t shirt. Thank
you both for joining us today. It's fabulous to have
you on the show. Thomas Coglan as the first of
you were you were nine and a half out of
ten and in my world, you know what, there's no
such thing as ten out of ten. I don't, So
that's fine, Pillow writer. You're always a nine at a
half out of ten.
Speaker 1 (32:13):
I appreciate you both dissecting the week sublime and ridiculous.
Friday faceoff with Quinovic Property Management a better rental experience
for all. Call eight hundred Quinovic for more from Wellington
Mornings with Nick Mills. Listen live to news talks It'd
be Wellington from nine am weekdays, or follow the podcast
(32:35):
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!