January 6, 2026 • 34 mins
The gang makes their annual predictions.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Also media.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
So I have pulled up poly Market and Kyle she
We're gonna go through each of the trending predictions right
now and then decide where we're gonna be putting our
last year's profit from cool zone coin. We're gonna be
transferring that on the blockchain to poly market, and I
think we can come out of this year with a
big profit.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
This is how we're relying on funding our operations.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
Jesus, that's going forward. Can you check partly market real quick? Say?
If Morris he's still alive, Jesus, it's been three years
in a row.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
So this is our twenty twenty six predictions episode. Like usual,
I think we should start by reflecting us move our
predictions from last year to see how right and wrong
we were. The big one big prediction that we discussed
the most as a team is when is Elon Musk
gonna distance himself from Trump? Or when are they gonna
break up? What do they have their you know, separation?
(00:58):
And each in every one of the extended cool Zone
media team members who works on it could happen here
put in a date and the most accurate guess was
from it could happen Here's main editor Adam, who said
May which was really spot on. So congrats to Adam
(01:21):
and to all of us stumble through our episodes and
have to edit them.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
All cutting all the burps out.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yeah actually actually, uh, you know, maybe to really give
credit back to us, maybe influenced your your wisdom.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
God, let me reflect on his gloria myself.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Yes, we really made him wiser, and thus we're all
wrong ourselves.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
And taking most psychological da It's a good you know.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
It means that we're smarter as a group entity, as
a hive mind. We're all smarter than our own individual intelligence,
which Adam has the most access to.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
Yes, just like ants.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Yeah, but yeah, no, Adam did pretty good on that
May thirtieth guess, so there you go. Sophie also close
at May sixth, and then Molly congered June tenth, also
kind of in that zone. But Adam definitely hit it
spot on. We had a few other predictions. Some of
(02:18):
them were predictions. Some of them, I guess we're kind
of more hopes and dreams, which sadly did not come
to pass. The meon mar Junta was predicted by me
and James to Junta was predicted by me and James
to Making Out twenty twenty five. They've kind of stuck
on to power.
Speaker 5 (02:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
Yeah, if they've rallied pretty substantially Italy.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
It's unfortunate Yaho's still as Prime Minister. I did predict
that Assad would become a Russia Today host. I think
it's a good prediction, but did not happen.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
That could still happen.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
It still happen in the future.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
I'm waiting for them to hire him for a fucking podcast.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
I don't think I predicted this, but I'm not surprised.
He's just playing video games.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
No, he's just pulled up in a hotel playing video games.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
Now. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
During There's Our Death segment, I laid out a new
theory of death based on Spotify Rapped, which the previous
two years had some important deaths associated with Spotify rap Day.
No big Spotify Rapped deaths this year, unfortunately, though. I
did make a death prediction last episode which did not
fully become true, but slightly became true right after we
(03:23):
record that episode. Last year, before the episode even aired,
I predicted that someone would try to assassinate Nick Fuent
as well. Nick was live streaming, perhaps a deranged fanboy.
Days later, Just days later, someone showed up outside of
Nick's house as he was live streaming with a weapon,
allegedly trying to kill him. This person died later that night,
(03:45):
and in like exchange with police, it became this whole thing.
But that happened just a few days after I made
that prediction, so technically didn't even happen in twenty twenty five.
Happened still in twenty twenty four before we aired that
last episode, But it was close, was close to some
kind of zeitgeist on that. It's unclear that guy was
a fanboy. We really don't know much about him. What's
(04:06):
a few other predictions that have like kind of kind
of come true, But like it's more in terms of
like which degree I guess.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I think my weird terrorism prediction has been pretty Yeah,
area own the money. Yeah, that's that's continued to be
a driver of the discourse.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
We'll return to that in a sec. Sophie talked about,
you know, Trump moving some like White House operations to
mar A Lago, which has partially happened. There's been a
lot of like a like a holiday events done at
mar A Lago. Sometimes he's working out.
Speaker 5 (04:35):
Of there very odd things.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Yeah, But on the other hand, he's also just mar
a lago of fying the White House itself, which with
like the ballroom, So it's kind of going in both directions.
Mia did did put a very firm prediction on like
an economic collapse in twenty twenty five, like in the
United States. Again, it's it's it's it's like a slow
(04:59):
in terms of like one of the key ideas for
our show is like crumbles versus collapse. It certainly continued
to crumble, but I think the actual full collapse point
is still upcoming.
Speaker 6 (05:09):
Yeah, well, we'll get into this more later. I will
say it is kind of baffling to have my prediction
completely derailed literally just solely by AI data center spending.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Yes, which I did not predict.
Speaker 6 (05:24):
That any entire American growth rate would be and I
did set growth.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Yeah, I didn't get that. No, the actual like like
job market and economy has become so separate from like
corporate spending and stock market stuff. And like Robert did,
actually I think hit this little bit on the head.
He talked about how the economy will basically remain identical
to Biden's economy in terms of inflation, but the stock
market will continue to go up and housing will keep
(05:52):
getting more expensive, and the left will start to be
able to hit conservatives on inflation. And yeah, I think
that is pretty much what happened. E Condomy's in a
relatively similar place as it was last year. But you know,
inflation is still ticking. There's some like artificial attempts to
bring it down by Trump, but it's not really working
in terms of prices.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
No, the only thing cropping it up in a numbers
term is fucking Nvidia. Well, in Vidia less so now,
but just irrational exuberance over AI in general. Yeah, but
people are complaining about all the same things they were
under Biden, just more so.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
Yeah. Yeah, I guess I have three other points here.
I talked about a blue governor deployed national Guard troops
against Trump federal troops. Instead you got Trump deployed national
Guard troops against individual cities with like police kind of
caught in between. We still have yet to see the
the cool and based moment where like a blue governor
(06:50):
deploys national Guard against against dhlven.
Speaker 4 (06:53):
Youse deployed his Twitter account today.
Speaker 5 (06:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
No, Still, Sophie talked about there'd be still no clear
left wing Joe Rogan, but so many have tried, a
lot of people try.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
I still feel like I could be it.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
You're gonna have to be a lot more on camera,
I think. Yeahah, well, they'll have to have a lot
a lot more on camera stuff for that.
Speaker 4 (07:13):
More camera less hair, larger gut can't be explained.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
Steroids, different drugs.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Yeah, I mean Adam Freeland is certainly positioning in that direction. Yeah,
I agree here. I agree here.
Speaker 5 (07:26):
Also, I predicted that something would happen to the Paul Brothers,
and unfortunately the only thing that happened is that their
HBO show did not get renewed.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
When was that boxed?
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Bad?
Speaker 3 (07:34):
That was year prior and it wasn't good.
Speaker 5 (07:37):
No, they had a TV show called Paul American.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, are you serious? I didn't even hear about this.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
It was on HBO, but it got canceled.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
I guess I've just had other stuff going on.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Yeah, I'm kind of glad that I've lived a life
where I didn't know that. I have no shame about that.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
Finally, both myself and like a few of us kind
of talked about is that there would be this movement
away from big mobilizations. Some big mobilizations happened in short
periods of time, right, like especially good point like la
I think it's probably the most significant, but in terms
of like like actual like countrywide mass mobilizations, right, there's
a movement away from this and moving towards lone wolf attacks,
(08:20):
which did happen, and specifically I predicted there would be
like a very a very sloppy Luigi copycat in the
next four months, And oh boy, did this happen multiple
in reoccurring times. And this kind of played into this
larger model I was creating, which kind of starts around
(08:41):
the assassination of shinzo Abe, creating this escalating series of
assassinations happening faster and faster, because like after shinzo Abe,
there was you know, two years later, Thomas Crooks trying
to assassinate Onald Trump and bout the Pennsylvania six months later,
the United Healthcare CEO. Three months after that, someone tried
to burn down the home of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
in the middle of the night. One and a half
(09:02):
months after that, there was the assassination of two Israeli
embassy staffers in Washington, d c Two weeks after that,
a Christian missionary named Vance Belter killed in Minnesota House
speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and shot Senator John Hoffman.
Next month was the Prairie Land assault on an ice
facility in July, the exact details of which are still
getting figured out in court. But after this things kind
(09:24):
of tapered down for a bit until September with the
Charlie Kirk assassination and the attack on the ice facility
in Texas which kills two immigrant detainees. So yeah, in
terms of like you know, lone wolf style, pre planned
assassination style attacks, sloppy copycats, write people writing messages on
(09:46):
bullet casings, emulating the United Healthcare CEO assassination, this was
like a super super dominant part of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
It's the same pattern. I talked about this at the
end of my episode on and Manchione after like that
came out right that like there's copycats after every shooting.
This is basically following the same kind of thing we
saw in twenty nineteen with the eight Chan shootings right
where you like this. This has been going on for
much longer than that, but it's a very predictable once
(10:16):
you start to expect it. It's a very predictable thing,
which is, someone carries out a shooting that actually manages
to break through our levels of apathy about violence in
this society and keeps everyone's attention, and then throughout the
year a bunch of different people try iterations based on
that because it's the only way to get attention, and
that's what all these people are craving, right, That's the
(10:37):
only real currency that still has value.
Speaker 6 (10:40):
I will say, I think it says something positive about
the turnoway for mass mobilizations that the lone Wolf stuff
wasn't the only stuff that happened. There was also the
turn towards the thing we talked about in our Q
and a episode about the Ice wrapped response stuff, which is,
you know, there were a few big mobilizations, but then
ICE was forced to change their tactics by the fact
that giant mobilizations by ICE, we're going badly for them.
(11:01):
And this did create a whole bunch of sort of
decentralized rapid response networks and a whole bunch of actions
that were sort of based on this very very decentralized
very we show up and we do this thing at
this place, what's happening. It has stopped some of the
things that is happening. It has not stopped all of
the horrors that have been happening. But I think it
is a positive trend in terms of the way that
(11:23):
ICE has been forced to adjust their tactics to do
things that are harder and get less people at a time.
So I think that's worth as a positive thing worth
sharing of. How yeah, yeah, that the tactical innovations that
activists have been deploying have been forcing ICE to do
less devastating raids.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
We saw various attempts at mass mobilization, most successful with
the No Kings marches, which were vast, but we also
saw those fifty to fifty one things which kind of
were not as successful in turning out a lot of
umbers of people. But like me, it said, like in Ventura, right,
Like we saw huge numbers of people show up when
ICE tried to rate a couple of agricultural facility. He's
(12:00):
up there, and yeah, well like I was up in La.
We've spoken about that extensively. But like Garrison said, that
was probably the biggest mobilization against ICE at one time.
In one place that we saw.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
It's a probably do ad break and then move into
predictions for this upcoming year twenty twenty six. Yep, the
stock market is still trying to keep going, although in
(12:32):
some parts is like, if not going down, flatlining like
a bitcoined did not increase this past year. There's been
a few popular like rising stocks like Netflix, which are
pretty much at the same spot they were at the
start of twenty twenty five, still going up and down.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
Games Workshop is up forty eight percent.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Baby ye, war Hammer, the assassin Oran kingmaker, it's great.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Sixty seven most valuable company in the entire UK, larger
than there a whole fishing industry. Baby really Yeah, that's
Warhammer is load bearing to the British economy. It's the
only thing Noddingham really has left.
Speaker 4 (13:15):
Yeah, so they got rid of the sheriff. It already
went downhill for them. Hey that in Robinhood. Tourism is yeah,
anything you can do in Notingham. Now, Okay, I have
I have a big one about this. And it's not
that the tech bubble is going to collapse. I do
think the tech bubble is going to pop this year.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
At about this year, but within the next twelve months.
I think you're saying, because we've got like three weeks
left in.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
This year, Well, you know, in twenty twenty six. Yeah,
these are these are predictions for twenty twenty six. Yeah,
in twenty twenty six, the tech bubble is going to pop. Yeah,
that's not the prediction.
Speaker 6 (13:44):
The prediction is that, in an attempt to recoup the
value from all of the completely useless data centers that
they will have built that can only run LMS and
can do nothing else, someone is going to invent a
cryptocurrency that can only be mined by large language models.
And this is going to be one of the big
attempts to recoup the hideous, hideous amounts of capital they've
(14:08):
been dumped into all these data centers. Is that they're
going to have someone's going to find a way to
make a kind of token that can only be generated
by large language models, and they're gonna they're gonna try it.
Is it gonna work? I don't think so, But they
are going to try it. It's going to be a
big thing. They're gonna push it. It's gonna suck.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
There's gonna be a bunch of desperate attempts to like
once the money starts falling out and like, which is
not to say that I think that AI is going
to even the AI that annoys me is going to
go away, But a lot of the irrational exuberance is
going to end, and a lot of the startups that
are just burning money are going to fail or get acquired,
and you're going to see tremendous desperation for people to
(14:49):
be like, this is the next thing, This is the
next thing. Throw a bunch of money into this, Like, Yeah,
that's that's gonna be annoying.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
No, I mean, I feel like people have been talking
about the a bubble popping for a while. I have
been hearing things from people who think and track this
more than I do that if it is going to happen,
there's indicators that it's more likely to happen in twenty
six than it was in twenty five. I'm not going
to put money on that on the Calshi betting markets,
(15:20):
but god, it does seem to be more of a possibility.
And you can see this the way people are handling
Navidia stock right now and being advised not to buy
more stock but still hold what you have.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Yeah, and just where Nvidio stock has moved over the
last month or so.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Yeah, so if you look at what's happening with Navidio,
we might have reached the peak and oh yeah, and
it might be so jover for some of these guys.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
Yeah. I think the big open question is how bad
it's going to be. There's going to be at least
one of these big AI companies open aire, anthropic, or
somebody that either goes bust entirely or has to get acquired.
But again, if you're looking at this rationally and wish casting,
both Apple, Google, and Microsoft are all perfectly capable of
(16:04):
sustaining their rates of burn.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Microsoft is still going up.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Yeah, Facebook is as well. And I think what you're
likelier to see is contraction and consolidation, which is not
to say that it's not going to be disastrous for
some group. I think there's a good chance that we
do see some banks fail because there's there's some bad
investments out there.
Speaker 6 (16:23):
Yeah, they have been doing collateralized loan obligations. Yeah, where
the underlying asset is compute time.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
This is more deranged than two thousand and eight.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
I cannot emphasize this enough. This is the most deranged
thing I have seen since the Tulip crisis, Like I
cannot explain just good God, So.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
No, I mean the upside that we have over two
thousand and eight is that the thing that all of
these bad bets are on isn't people's houses, right, Yes, yeah,
And so that does there is a potential that some
good comes out of it in terms of like universities
getting access to a lot more compute that they can
actually use valuable things.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Yeah, and people are already suffering under recession conditions. If
you're like a working class person, like you are already dealing
with the followed effects of this. Just the stock market
itself has been insulated from the rest of the economy
which is in a state of recession. And also it
can get worse, which so a lot of people who
aren't like super wealthy are like pro this bubble popping
(17:23):
and pro this because then if other people, people in
power finally realize how bad it is, they're hopeful that
then something might be done to like fix some of
the material conditions, which I can understand people's like, like
you know point of view there.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Yeah, I am not as worried about this being as
bad for the average person as two thousand and eight was.
I don't think it's going to be as satisfying as
people are hoping it was. It's not going to wipe
out or put an end to the annoyance of AI
in our lives, although it should make it easier to
rationalize some of the shit people have been saying, like
it should make the craziest of the AI boosters being
(17:59):
like this is to replace everything. The whole economy will
be in two years, no one will have a job.
That's going to be a lot harder for anybody who's
not not seem like a crazy person while advocating. But
the Internet's gonna stay annoying, like unfortunate.
Speaker 4 (18:12):
I think it's fucked for a little while.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
I think my girly pop economy prediction is that we're
going to continue to see influencer shopping. What I mean
by that is like influencers have been pushing products like
no other and marketing budgets have been going to influencer
marketing at a rapid pace. And I think we're gonna
see the implementation of AI into that more. And I
(18:36):
think that that is primarily going to be one of
the ways, like we might see less or we'll still
see as much, but targeted ads, and we're going to
see an addition to that, we'll also see like targeted
influencer marketing for products, and like it's already pretty gnarly
on like TikTok and Instagram, but I think we're only
going to see more of that, and it's just gonna,
(18:58):
you know, going to be peak capital them care.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Something that could be really fun is that if it pops,
it's going to line up almost perfectly with two thousand
and eight nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia, which is
already starting to happen in the same time as a
whole economic recession. So we'll have the recessions line up
in time with their nostalgia cycle, and then you know,
(19:23):
it's only a matter of months before you have you know,
like twenty tens like hipster stuff coming coming back in
great So you know, it's right there, We're so close.
We're already at that like like you know, two thousand
and eight level of two thousands of nostalgia. But if
it lines up with the recession, then that could that
could be really exciting.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Now I'm also kind of curious as to whether or
not we're going to start seeing you know, a lot
of the earliest adopters of AI on a regular basis.
We're very young people using it to cheat at school, yes,
and just kind of trawling different teachers, subreddits and online communities.
I'm seeing teachers talk about like younger kids now they're
being a backlash among very young people against the use
(20:04):
of AI and the way it makes people talk. This
is kind of coming alongside as you're starting to see
a recovery in levels of literacy as schools depart from
the bad way of teaching kids to read that fuck
everyone up. I don't have any kind of longitudinal statistical
data on this. This is all very much anecdotal, so
I'm still waiting to see is this a broader trend
(20:25):
or did I just come across some people saying this
is a thing that they're seeing in their area. But
I'm kind of interested. And there's a degree to which
I think some sort of backlash against AI is inevitable
just because of how everyone running society is trying to
push people to replace everything with it like that just
inevitably is going to irritate the kids because the adults
(20:47):
are all doing it right, We'll see.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
I think people are increasingly better at spotting AI, like
intuitively and very quickly. It's something I've seen, like not
in high school, but like teaching at a university level.
People just being like, this is an IR response, and
it's fucking cringe like because the AI always writes in
a particularly cringe way, right, that is very obvious, and
(21:11):
I've seen that. But I genuinely hope more people stop
using AI because it is making education a pretty fucking
miserable place to be right now, which is Tomama, because
I like teaching.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
Let's go on another at break and then return for
some mid term predictions. Hey, is it everyone excited? It's
another election?
Speaker 4 (21:41):
You're already people are saying the most important one of
our lives, Garrison.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
I think, so just what I was starting to miss it.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Yeah, I'm voting Kamala for every single camera.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Single state level position. Yeah, sure, she will be the comptroller.
Speaker 5 (22:00):
You're killing me.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Who do we think is gonna run?
Speaker 5 (22:02):
Gavin Newsome?
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (22:07):
Midterms? Yeah, Unfortunately, Sophie, we have another reporter like talking
about twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
Yeah, we don't have to do that until next year's
I skipped.
Speaker 5 (22:15):
I've skipped the midterms, and I was already going to
the next level of hell, no, no, no, Who's going
to be governor of California?
Speaker 4 (22:23):
James God knows. The Dems have not really been putting
their strongest foot forward. Katie Porter had these like really
pretty nasty videos come out of the way she was
just talking to people who work for her. I don't
think that that is a good leadership great, and I
don't think that that it's a person we should choose.
I don't know. I'm so resigned to being it being
(22:45):
someone's shit, you know that, Like I honestly try not
to put too much of my time and effort into it.
But yeah, I know, maybe I'll be fucking Katy Perry.
Maybe Trudeau will pass on his electoral magic. She's got
some good songs. She could use them with actually, with
the intellectual property licensing, which Trump doesn't do, she could
(23:06):
get that shock. Maybe the shock could be vice governor.
You know, that's the potential there. We have worried about
the shock.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
So obviously the Democrats are protected to do well in
this in this midterm election based on like like like
anti Trump sentiment and like the regular swing away from
the like whoever is in the executive branch in mid terms,
And yeah, I think the Democrats will do well, especially
if you look at the last like a month or
so of election results. I think it's possible they take
(23:37):
both chambers. I think they will absolutely take one. I'm
going split, it's possible they take both chambers. I don't
think it's going to be a landslide. It's not going
to be a blue tsunami blue nay. I think it
may be a blue wave. I think I think a
wave or a small wave is likely. I do not
think it's going to be a complete blowout. But there's
(23:59):
been like especially in the Tennessee's special election, a thirteen
point shift towards Democrats. We've seen other double digit shifts
across the country in the in the past in the
past month. I don't know how much they'll be able
to continue that sort of sentiment in you know, nine
months time, ten months, eleven months time leading into November.
(24:21):
So I think some of that enthusiasm will maybe taper
off a little bit as Trump becomes kind of like
a lame duck presidency.
Speaker 6 (24:29):
But I still think they'll do like Okay. In terms
of like the Democrats, I very much disapear. I think
this is going to be like a generic DE plus fourteen.
This is going to be a fucking massacre. What signs
are pointing towards that? I mean, they just won the
mayorship of Miami.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Yeah, yeah, Well so you're saying it's going to be
good for the Democrats de plus fourteen.
Speaker 6 (24:51):
Yeah, like Democrats plus fourteen. Like I'm talking like an
as a tsunami. Okay, got My prediction is that all
of the polling people are fucking cowards. What's happening right
now at the polling is that they are using the
twenty twenty four electorate. This is not the twenty twenty
four electorate. They have not figured this out yet. They
are still underestimating the exact scale of which everyone fucking
(25:13):
hates them, Like.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
I'ld be surprised if both houses flip. But yeah, here's
the thing.
Speaker 6 (25:19):
The Cuban parts of Miami, Yeah went left by like
fifteen points touch something we talked about in the show.
They are going through and systematically pissing off every single
part of their base, right, Like one of the things
one of the stories I've been tracking is about the
ways in which they've been spystematically pissing off a whole
bunch of farmers who are a very very consistent right
wing voting base, and they're pissing them off a trade
(25:40):
war bullshit because China's not buying swoydeans, right. This is
how they're losing elections in Western Iowa. I think the
other part of this too is and this is how
I think the momentum is going to be sustained, is
that things haven't even gotten as bad as they're going
to get yet. The actual standard of living in this
country right now, it is going to get so much
worse as as all of the inflation stuff sort of
racks up, et cetera, et cetera. Like, the country is
(26:02):
going to be worse. Everyone's going to be more pissed off.
Trump is going to have bombed like four more countries.
We're gonna have like cent troops into Mexico or some shit.
He's going to be so unpopular it's going to be
like it's gonna be the fucking flood out there that's possible.
Speaker 4 (26:17):
Yeah, I think the incompacy advantage becomes less and less
relevant the worse the economy gets and like that was
something Biden got hit with, right, that Trump is is
going to have to wear especially to get further and
further into his term. Right, it's a Trump economy.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
I guess this just requires that the current momentum Democrats
have to be maintained for a while, which is something
that historically Democrats haven't been great at.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Yes, yeah, they have shift at it.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
So this will require effort for you know, people like
organizing with the Democrats and social media messaging, like actual
in person like like electoral organizing to really keep this
momentum pressure going for the next eleven months, which which
is you know, they've they've done a good job at
this the past like six months, but can they like
maintain this to the mid terms. That's the only point
(27:03):
where I start to hesitate in terms of like the
scale of like a blue wave. But I think it's
it's certainly possible that that they end up doing it
quite well, but it's going to be reliant on like
maintaining this this pressure.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
No, there's still some structural difficulties that make flipping Congress
entirely very.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Difficult, especially with the redistricting stuff happening. Yeah, yeah, so
like could they take the Senate quite easily. Yeah, the
House still up in the air. For me, I think
lean the Democrat at this point, certainly leaning Democrat, but
still not confident.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
That'd be great. I just I don't want to get irrationally,
you know, ahead of our skeazier.
Speaker 6 (27:39):
I have watched very very dysfunctional state Democratic parties win
elections and districts that were R plus twenty two.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Anything can happen at this point.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
Like, yeah, no, Yeah, it's not coming from a national strategy.
It's coming from like local candidates doing well on local
issues and people fucking hating Trump. Yeah, it is not
the DNC who is putting Higgins or Mam Damie in office. Well, yeah,
that is, uh, I guess a good thing because the
DNT fucking sucks. It has always fucking sucked, and it
(28:08):
has really reinforced how much it sucks in the last
eight years.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
And being able to hit Trump and Republicans on the
economy with tariffs, this, like all the garky stuff, has
proven to be pretty successful so far, and I think
being able to continue that messaging as the economy trends
in its current direction. Being able to continue that messaging
I think will help the Democrats. Interestingly, a Platner in
Maine still seems to be the front runner for that race,
(28:35):
so I think there's a decent chance we get our
first total cob in the Senate.
Speaker 4 (28:39):
Well, he didn't absolutely dog shit cover up. I'm sorry
if you are listening and you did that yet to you,
but it's probably not your best work. Like he's got
a blob now.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
That stuff just did not prove to be super impactful
to the actual voters in Maine, it seems, and the
actual like focus on his talking points have maintained his lead.
So I think that's something that Democrats can also look
look to. Yeah, in terms of like how much of
these like you know, like tertiary like personal attacks or
like you know, genuine yeah, genuinely valid valid complaints or
(29:12):
issues are are not very dominant based on how much
emphsis is actually getting put on. This is sort of
like affordability messaging.
Speaker 5 (29:21):
To wrap up this Predictions episode, should we do a
quick death pick?
Speaker 2 (29:25):
No one's gonna die.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
I thought you're gonna ask it. Do you think we're
going to invade Venezuela?
Speaker 2 (29:30):
No? See, this is what I'm interested in I'm more
interested in are we going to start any wars? Yes?
Speaker 4 (29:34):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (29:34):
And is his cabinet going to stay the same?
Speaker 3 (29:36):
Kindness already have started.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
To answer your first question, yes, yeh.
Speaker 5 (29:42):
Is the cabit gonna stay the same?
Speaker 2 (29:45):
I'm surprised it's weird, right Trump first term there was
a lot of cabinet turnover in the first year. Sure, Scaramouchi,
this is this is not happening this year. This year
they stayed pretty tight knit, despite a lot of terminils
or like you know, issues around like Cash Battel, Pam Bondi,
RFK Junior, Pete Haig Seth with the double tap war crime.
Speaker 4 (30:06):
Strikes No as well.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
They're pretty tight knit, it seems, so. I don't know
if it's gonna be cabinet turnover. I think Cash Battel
will be out next year.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
Yeah, I think Cash might have Yeah, might be on
the edge of this.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Lost the podcast price he just found the ja Sics
pipe Bomber.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
I don't think it's gonna happen. I think the cabinet's
gonna stay the same, which I predicted against last year.
But I think based on how they've weathered certain controversies,
I do not know if Trump cares enough to do
cabinet turnover.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
Yeah who I was talking to him about these things.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
Yeah, well see, I don't there's no one that I
think is an obvious choice. I think the likeliest turnover
is Paatel.
Speaker 5 (30:47):
Then maybe hag Seth.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
I don't think he's gonna go. I think heg Seth
is too loyal, He's a he's a team player, sure,
and he has absolutely no chance of going into business
for himself. Right.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
This is the big thing is that it's not a
skill or competency that got these people their jobs, which
you know, it's kind of kind of was a factor
in Trump one point zero, in Trump two point zero.
It is just pure loyalty.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
And if they're able to prove that, especially around like
you know, the Epstein stuff really really tested those those loyalties. Yes,
And if they're able to get out of the Epstein
controversy it's like kind of intact, then I think all
these guys will be set for like the next next
little bed. I guess do we think Vance is ever
going to become a president during the next like year
(31:34):
or two.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Trump is like eighties, So I'm not going to say
there's not a twenty or thirty percent chance that just
like if Donald Trump dies, Vance becomes the president, right sure,
and like he's at the age where he could just
drop dead right outside of that, No, I don't think
he's likely to become president.
Speaker 4 (31:50):
Yeah, I do think in the next twelve months, the
US will begin a UAV campaign in the sahell quite
possibly in Nigeria. Like I think, yeah, that's possible in
the next twelve weeks, just looking at flights that they've
had very recently.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
There's a decent chance too that they start expanding the
use of special forces and maybe even keep fobs open
without the willingness of the Nigerian government. But that's a
longer shot.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
Yeah, and the Nigerian government's pretty pretty into it right now. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Do you think they're going to put troops in the
ground at either Mexico or Venezuela.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
I think there's a good chance that we utilize special
forces on the ground in parts of Mexico for brief
periods of time.
Speaker 4 (32:32):
That's a good chance that we already have.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Yeah, I mean we almost certainly already have. I think
there's a chance that we wind up having people on
the ground in Venezuela after a fuck up, right, Like,
but I think that at present their plan is airstrikes
and drone strikes. I think if we were to wind
up having anything on the ground in Venezuela, it would
be as a result of like a strike with a
manned craft going badly and someone going down over Venezuela.
(32:56):
That's not a zero percent chance if they keep fucking around.
But I really don't think they want to have troops
on the ground in Venezuela. I think they want to
be striking targets in Venezuela.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Yeah, it's not a place where they want. You want
largs them by the troops to be to be engaging
like that wouldn't go well. Trump does not want to
wear that, right, Like if we saw in Syria, like
he wasn't willing to deploy large now about the troops.
He was willing to use a lot of drone and
air strikes even when the civilian cost was very high.
(33:28):
And I think that is the model, Like that that
strike cell model that we saw, like like the strike
in Bagus at the end of the Islamic State is
probably a good example of the sort of yeah, quote
unquote collateral damage right killing civilians that we can expect
them to see as acceptable.
Speaker 6 (33:43):
I think the final point on this is that the
Trump administration genuinely believes that they can top of visions
with their strikes. They thought they thought this with the
hoo Us and they think there's a buff venezuela. They
actually think you can do this despite all evidence of
the contrary. So I think it's going to inform a
lot of their decisions.
Speaker 4 (33:59):
Yeah, and I think like kind of not not Syria
with a SAD but Syria with the Islamic State. We're
reinforced that for them, but like obviously overlooking like that
they have an incredible partner for us, so they don't
have in these places.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
Well, I think that's our predictions. First time we're not
doing a desk segment, and you know what, I feel fine,
other Yep, no one's gonna die twenty twenty seven Mars.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (34:21):
Still, I'm not going to say it this time because
I've been inadvertually blessing him with long life.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
It could happen. Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
cool zonemedia dot com or check us out on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
You can now find sources for it could happen here
listened directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.
Also media.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
So I have pulled up poly Market and Kyle she
We're gonna go through each of the trending predictions right
now and then decide where we're gonna be putting our
last year's profit from cool zone coin. We're gonna be
transferring that on the blockchain to poly market, and I
think we can come out of this year with a
big profit.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
This is how we're relying on funding our operations.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
Jesus, that's going forward. Can you check partly market real quick? Say?
If Morris he's still alive, Jesus, it's been three years
in a row.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
So this is our twenty twenty six predictions episode. Like usual,
I think we should start by reflecting us move our
predictions from last year to see how right and wrong
we were. The big one big prediction that we discussed
the most as a team is when is Elon Musk
gonna distance himself from Trump? Or when are they gonna
break up? What do they have their you know, separation?
(00:58):
And each in every one of the extended cool Zone
media team members who works on it could happen here
put in a date and the most accurate guess was
from it could happen Here's main editor Adam, who said
May which was really spot on. So congrats to Adam
(01:21):
and to all of us stumble through our episodes and
have to edit them.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
All cutting all the burps out.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yeah actually actually, uh, you know, maybe to really give
credit back to us, maybe influenced your your wisdom.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
God, let me reflect on his gloria myself.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Yes, we really made him wiser, and thus we're all
wrong ourselves.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
And taking most psychological da It's a good you know.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
It means that we're smarter as a group entity, as
a hive mind. We're all smarter than our own individual intelligence,
which Adam has the most access to.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
Yes, just like ants.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Yeah, but yeah, no, Adam did pretty good on that
May thirtieth guess, so there you go. Sophie also close
at May sixth, and then Molly congered June tenth, also
kind of in that zone. But Adam definitely hit it
spot on. We had a few other predictions. Some of
(02:18):
them were predictions. Some of them, I guess we're kind
of more hopes and dreams, which sadly did not come
to pass. The meon mar Junta was predicted by me
and James to Junta was predicted by me and James
to Making Out twenty twenty five. They've kind of stuck
on to power.
Speaker 5 (02:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
Yeah, if they've rallied pretty substantially Italy.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
It's unfortunate Yaho's still as Prime Minister. I did predict
that Assad would become a Russia Today host. I think
it's a good prediction, but did not happen.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
That could still happen.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
It still happen in the future.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
I'm waiting for them to hire him for a fucking podcast.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
I don't think I predicted this, but I'm not surprised.
He's just playing video games.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
No, he's just pulled up in a hotel playing video games.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
Now. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
During There's Our Death segment, I laid out a new
theory of death based on Spotify Rapped, which the previous
two years had some important deaths associated with Spotify rap Day.
No big Spotify Rapped deaths this year, unfortunately, though. I
did make a death prediction last episode which did not
fully become true, but slightly became true right after we
(03:23):
record that episode. Last year, before the episode even aired,
I predicted that someone would try to assassinate Nick Fuent
as well. Nick was live streaming, perhaps a deranged fanboy.
Days later, Just days later, someone showed up outside of
Nick's house as he was live streaming with a weapon,
allegedly trying to kill him. This person died later that night,
(03:45):
and in like exchange with police, it became this whole thing.
But that happened just a few days after I made
that prediction, so technically didn't even happen in twenty twenty five.
Happened still in twenty twenty four before we aired that
last episode, But it was close, was close to some
kind of zeitgeist on that. It's unclear that guy was
a fanboy. We really don't know much about him. What's
(04:06):
a few other predictions that have like kind of kind
of come true, But like it's more in terms of
like which degree I guess.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I think my weird terrorism prediction has been pretty Yeah,
area own the money. Yeah, that's that's continued to be
a driver of the discourse.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
We'll return to that in a sec. Sophie talked about,
you know, Trump moving some like White House operations to
mar A Lago, which has partially happened. There's been a
lot of like a like a holiday events done at
mar A Lago. Sometimes he's working out.
Speaker 5 (04:35):
Of there very odd things.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Yeah, But on the other hand, he's also just mar
a lago of fying the White House itself, which with
like the ballroom, So it's kind of going in both directions.
Mia did did put a very firm prediction on like
an economic collapse in twenty twenty five, like in the
United States. Again, it's it's it's it's like a slow
(04:59):
in terms of like one of the key ideas for
our show is like crumbles versus collapse. It certainly continued
to crumble, but I think the actual full collapse point
is still upcoming.
Speaker 6 (05:09):
Yeah, well, we'll get into this more later. I will
say it is kind of baffling to have my prediction
completely derailed literally just solely by AI data center spending.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Yes, which I did not predict.
Speaker 6 (05:24):
That any entire American growth rate would be and I
did set growth.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Yeah, I didn't get that. No, the actual like like
job market and economy has become so separate from like
corporate spending and stock market stuff. And like Robert did,
actually I think hit this little bit on the head.
He talked about how the economy will basically remain identical
to Biden's economy in terms of inflation, but the stock
market will continue to go up and housing will keep
(05:52):
getting more expensive, and the left will start to be
able to hit conservatives on inflation. And yeah, I think
that is pretty much what happened. E Condomy's in a
relatively similar place as it was last year. But you know,
inflation is still ticking. There's some like artificial attempts to
bring it down by Trump, but it's not really working
in terms of prices.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
No, the only thing cropping it up in a numbers
term is fucking Nvidia. Well, in Vidia less so now,
but just irrational exuberance over AI in general. Yeah, but
people are complaining about all the same things they were
under Biden, just more so.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
Yeah. Yeah, I guess I have three other points here.
I talked about a blue governor deployed national Guard troops
against Trump federal troops. Instead you got Trump deployed national
Guard troops against individual cities with like police kind of
caught in between. We still have yet to see the
the cool and based moment where like a blue governor
(06:50):
deploys national Guard against against dhlven.
Speaker 4 (06:53):
Youse deployed his Twitter account today.
Speaker 5 (06:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
No, Still, Sophie talked about there'd be still no clear
left wing Joe Rogan, but so many have tried, a
lot of people try.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
I still feel like I could be it.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
You're gonna have to be a lot more on camera,
I think. Yeahah, well, they'll have to have a lot
a lot more on camera stuff for that.
Speaker 4 (07:13):
More camera less hair, larger gut can't be explained.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
Steroids, different drugs.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Yeah, I mean Adam Freeland is certainly positioning in that direction. Yeah,
I agree here. I agree here.
Speaker 5 (07:26):
Also, I predicted that something would happen to the Paul Brothers,
and unfortunately the only thing that happened is that their
HBO show did not get renewed.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
When was that boxed?
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Bad?
Speaker 3 (07:34):
That was year prior and it wasn't good.
Speaker 5 (07:37):
No, they had a TV show called Paul American.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, are you serious? I didn't even hear about this.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
It was on HBO, but it got canceled.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
I guess I've just had other stuff going on.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Yeah, I'm kind of glad that I've lived a life
where I didn't know that. I have no shame about that.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
Finally, both myself and like a few of us kind
of talked about is that there would be this movement
away from big mobilizations. Some big mobilizations happened in short
periods of time, right, like especially good point like la
I think it's probably the most significant, but in terms
of like like actual like countrywide mass mobilizations, right, there's
a movement away from this and moving towards lone wolf attacks,
(08:20):
which did happen, and specifically I predicted there would be
like a very a very sloppy Luigi copycat in the
next four months, And oh boy, did this happen multiple
in reoccurring times. And this kind of played into this
larger model I was creating, which kind of starts around
(08:41):
the assassination of shinzo Abe, creating this escalating series of
assassinations happening faster and faster, because like after shinzo Abe,
there was you know, two years later, Thomas Crooks trying
to assassinate Onald Trump and bout the Pennsylvania six months later,
the United Healthcare CEO. Three months after that, someone tried
to burn down the home of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
in the middle of the night. One and a half
(09:02):
months after that, there was the assassination of two Israeli
embassy staffers in Washington, d c Two weeks after that,
a Christian missionary named Vance Belter killed in Minnesota House
speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and shot Senator John Hoffman.
Next month was the Prairie Land assault on an ice
facility in July, the exact details of which are still
getting figured out in court. But after this things kind
(09:24):
of tapered down for a bit until September with the
Charlie Kirk assassination and the attack on the ice facility
in Texas which kills two immigrant detainees. So yeah, in
terms of like you know, lone wolf style, pre planned
assassination style attacks, sloppy copycats, write people writing messages on
(09:46):
bullet casings, emulating the United Healthcare CEO assassination, this was
like a super super dominant part of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
It's the same pattern. I talked about this at the
end of my episode on and Manchione after like that
came out right that like there's copycats after every shooting.
This is basically following the same kind of thing we
saw in twenty nineteen with the eight Chan shootings right
where you like this. This has been going on for
much longer than that, but it's a very predictable once
(10:16):
you start to expect it. It's a very predictable thing,
which is, someone carries out a shooting that actually manages
to break through our levels of apathy about violence in
this society and keeps everyone's attention, and then throughout the
year a bunch of different people try iterations based on
that because it's the only way to get attention, and
that's what all these people are craving, right, That's the
(10:37):
only real currency that still has value.
Speaker 6 (10:40):
I will say, I think it says something positive about
the turnoway for mass mobilizations that the lone Wolf stuff
wasn't the only stuff that happened. There was also the
turn towards the thing we talked about in our Q
and a episode about the Ice wrapped response stuff, which is,
you know, there were a few big mobilizations, but then
ICE was forced to change their tactics by the fact
that giant mobilizations by ICE, we're going badly for them.
(11:01):
And this did create a whole bunch of sort of
decentralized rapid response networks and a whole bunch of actions
that were sort of based on this very very decentralized
very we show up and we do this thing at
this place, what's happening. It has stopped some of the
things that is happening. It has not stopped all of
the horrors that have been happening. But I think it
is a positive trend in terms of the way that
(11:23):
ICE has been forced to adjust their tactics to do
things that are harder and get less people at a time.
So I think that's worth as a positive thing worth
sharing of. How yeah, yeah, that the tactical innovations that
activists have been deploying have been forcing ICE to do
less devastating raids.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
We saw various attempts at mass mobilization, most successful with
the No Kings marches, which were vast, but we also
saw those fifty to fifty one things which kind of
were not as successful in turning out a lot of
umbers of people. But like me, it said, like in Ventura, right,
Like we saw huge numbers of people show up when
ICE tried to rate a couple of agricultural facility. He's
(12:00):
up there, and yeah, well like I was up in La.
We've spoken about that extensively. But like Garrison said, that
was probably the biggest mobilization against ICE at one time.
In one place that we saw.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
It's a probably do ad break and then move into
predictions for this upcoming year twenty twenty six. Yep, the
stock market is still trying to keep going, although in
(12:32):
some parts is like, if not going down, flatlining like
a bitcoined did not increase this past year. There's been
a few popular like rising stocks like Netflix, which are
pretty much at the same spot they were at the
start of twenty twenty five, still going up and down.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
Games Workshop is up forty eight percent.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Baby ye, war Hammer, the assassin Oran kingmaker, it's great.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Sixty seven most valuable company in the entire UK, larger
than there a whole fishing industry. Baby really Yeah, that's
Warhammer is load bearing to the British economy. It's the
only thing Noddingham really has left.
Speaker 4 (13:15):
Yeah, so they got rid of the sheriff. It already
went downhill for them. Hey that in Robinhood. Tourism is yeah,
anything you can do in Notingham. Now, Okay, I have
I have a big one about this. And it's not
that the tech bubble is going to collapse. I do
think the tech bubble is going to pop this year.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
At about this year, but within the next twelve months.
I think you're saying, because we've got like three weeks
left in.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
This year, Well, you know, in twenty twenty six. Yeah,
these are these are predictions for twenty twenty six. Yeah,
in twenty twenty six, the tech bubble is going to pop. Yeah,
that's not the prediction.
Speaker 6 (13:44):
The prediction is that, in an attempt to recoup the
value from all of the completely useless data centers that
they will have built that can only run LMS and
can do nothing else, someone is going to invent a
cryptocurrency that can only be mined by large language models.
And this is going to be one of the big
attempts to recoup the hideous, hideous amounts of capital they've
(14:08):
been dumped into all these data centers. Is that they're
going to have someone's going to find a way to
make a kind of token that can only be generated
by large language models, and they're gonna they're gonna try it.
Is it gonna work? I don't think so, But they
are going to try it. It's going to be a
big thing. They're gonna push it. It's gonna suck.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
There's gonna be a bunch of desperate attempts to like
once the money starts falling out and like, which is
not to say that I think that AI is going
to even the AI that annoys me is going to
go away, But a lot of the irrational exuberance is
going to end, and a lot of the startups that
are just burning money are going to fail or get acquired,
and you're going to see tremendous desperation for people to
(14:49):
be like, this is the next thing, This is the
next thing. Throw a bunch of money into this, Like, Yeah,
that's that's gonna be annoying.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
No, I mean, I feel like people have been talking
about the a bubble popping for a while. I have
been hearing things from people who think and track this
more than I do that if it is going to happen,
there's indicators that it's more likely to happen in twenty
six than it was in twenty five. I'm not going
to put money on that on the Calshi betting markets,
(15:20):
but god, it does seem to be more of a possibility.
And you can see this the way people are handling
Navidia stock right now and being advised not to buy
more stock but still hold what you have.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Yeah, and just where Nvidio stock has moved over the
last month or so.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Yeah, so if you look at what's happening with Navidio,
we might have reached the peak and oh yeah, and
it might be so jover for some of these guys.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
Yeah. I think the big open question is how bad
it's going to be. There's going to be at least
one of these big AI companies open aire, anthropic, or
somebody that either goes bust entirely or has to get acquired.
But again, if you're looking at this rationally and wish casting,
both Apple, Google, and Microsoft are all perfectly capable of
(16:04):
sustaining their rates of burn.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Microsoft is still going up.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Yeah, Facebook is as well. And I think what you're
likelier to see is contraction and consolidation, which is not
to say that it's not going to be disastrous for
some group. I think there's a good chance that we
do see some banks fail because there's there's some bad
investments out there.
Speaker 6 (16:23):
Yeah, they have been doing collateralized loan obligations. Yeah, where
the underlying asset is compute time.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
This is more deranged than two thousand and eight.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
I cannot emphasize this enough. This is the most deranged
thing I have seen since the Tulip crisis, Like I
cannot explain just good God, So.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
No, I mean the upside that we have over two
thousand and eight is that the thing that all of
these bad bets are on isn't people's houses, right, Yes, yeah,
And so that does there is a potential that some
good comes out of it in terms of like universities
getting access to a lot more compute that they can
actually use valuable things.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Yeah, and people are already suffering under recession conditions. If
you're like a working class person, like you are already dealing
with the followed effects of this. Just the stock market
itself has been insulated from the rest of the economy
which is in a state of recession. And also it
can get worse, which so a lot of people who
aren't like super wealthy are like pro this bubble popping
(17:23):
and pro this because then if other people, people in
power finally realize how bad it is, they're hopeful that
then something might be done to like fix some of
the material conditions, which I can understand people's like, like
you know point of view there.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Yeah, I am not as worried about this being as
bad for the average person as two thousand and eight was.
I don't think it's going to be as satisfying as
people are hoping it was. It's not going to wipe
out or put an end to the annoyance of AI
in our lives, although it should make it easier to
rationalize some of the shit people have been saying, like
it should make the craziest of the AI boosters being
(17:59):
like this is to replace everything. The whole economy will
be in two years, no one will have a job.
That's going to be a lot harder for anybody who's
not not seem like a crazy person while advocating. But
the Internet's gonna stay annoying, like unfortunate.
Speaker 4 (18:12):
I think it's fucked for a little while.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
I think my girly pop economy prediction is that we're
going to continue to see influencer shopping. What I mean
by that is like influencers have been pushing products like
no other and marketing budgets have been going to influencer
marketing at a rapid pace. And I think we're gonna
see the implementation of AI into that more. And I
(18:36):
think that that is primarily going to be one of
the ways, like we might see less or we'll still
see as much, but targeted ads, and we're going to
see an addition to that, we'll also see like targeted
influencer marketing for products, and like it's already pretty gnarly
on like TikTok and Instagram, but I think we're only
going to see more of that, and it's just gonna,
(18:58):
you know, going to be peak capital them care.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Something that could be really fun is that if it pops,
it's going to line up almost perfectly with two thousand
and eight nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia, which is
already starting to happen in the same time as a
whole economic recession. So we'll have the recessions line up
in time with their nostalgia cycle, and then you know,
(19:23):
it's only a matter of months before you have you know,
like twenty tens like hipster stuff coming coming back in
great So you know, it's right there, We're so close.
We're already at that like like you know, two thousand
and eight level of two thousands of nostalgia. But if
it lines up with the recession, then that could that
could be really exciting.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Now I'm also kind of curious as to whether or
not we're going to start seeing you know, a lot
of the earliest adopters of AI on a regular basis.
We're very young people using it to cheat at school, yes,
and just kind of trawling different teachers, subreddits and online communities.
I'm seeing teachers talk about like younger kids now they're
being a backlash among very young people against the use
(20:04):
of AI and the way it makes people talk. This
is kind of coming alongside as you're starting to see
a recovery in levels of literacy as schools depart from
the bad way of teaching kids to read that fuck
everyone up. I don't have any kind of longitudinal statistical
data on this. This is all very much anecdotal, so
I'm still waiting to see is this a broader trend
(20:25):
or did I just come across some people saying this
is a thing that they're seeing in their area. But
I'm kind of interested. And there's a degree to which
I think some sort of backlash against AI is inevitable
just because of how everyone running society is trying to
push people to replace everything with it like that just
inevitably is going to irritate the kids because the adults
(20:47):
are all doing it right, We'll see.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
I think people are increasingly better at spotting AI, like
intuitively and very quickly. It's something I've seen, like not
in high school, but like teaching at a university level.
People just being like, this is an IR response, and
it's fucking cringe like because the AI always writes in
a particularly cringe way, right, that is very obvious, and
(21:11):
I've seen that. But I genuinely hope more people stop
using AI because it is making education a pretty fucking
miserable place to be right now, which is Tomama, because
I like teaching.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
Let's go on another at break and then return for
some mid term predictions. Hey, is it everyone excited? It's
another election?
Speaker 4 (21:41):
You're already people are saying the most important one of
our lives, Garrison.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
I think, so just what I was starting to miss it.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Yeah, I'm voting Kamala for every single camera.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Single state level position. Yeah, sure, she will be the comptroller.
Speaker 5 (22:00):
You're killing me.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Who do we think is gonna run?
Speaker 5 (22:02):
Gavin Newsome?
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (22:07):
Midterms? Yeah, Unfortunately, Sophie, we have another reporter like talking
about twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
Yeah, we don't have to do that until next year's
I skipped.
Speaker 5 (22:15):
I've skipped the midterms, and I was already going to
the next level of hell, no, no, no, Who's going
to be governor of California?
Speaker 4 (22:23):
James God knows. The Dems have not really been putting
their strongest foot forward. Katie Porter had these like really
pretty nasty videos come out of the way she was
just talking to people who work for her. I don't
think that that is a good leadership great, and I
don't think that that it's a person we should choose.
I don't know. I'm so resigned to being it being
(22:45):
someone's shit, you know that, Like I honestly try not
to put too much of my time and effort into it.
But yeah, I know, maybe I'll be fucking Katy Perry.
Maybe Trudeau will pass on his electoral magic. She's got
some good songs. She could use them with actually, with
the intellectual property licensing, which Trump doesn't do, she could
(23:06):
get that shock. Maybe the shock could be vice governor.
You know, that's the potential there. We have worried about
the shock.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
So obviously the Democrats are protected to do well in
this in this midterm election based on like like like
anti Trump sentiment and like the regular swing away from
the like whoever is in the executive branch in mid terms,
And yeah, I think the Democrats will do well, especially
if you look at the last like a month or
so of election results. I think it's possible they take
(23:37):
both chambers. I think they will absolutely take one. I'm
going split, it's possible they take both chambers. I don't
think it's going to be a landslide. It's not going
to be a blue tsunami blue nay. I think it
may be a blue wave. I think I think a
wave or a small wave is likely. I do not
think it's going to be a complete blowout. But there's
(23:59):
been like especially in the Tennessee's special election, a thirteen
point shift towards Democrats. We've seen other double digit shifts
across the country in the in the past in the
past month. I don't know how much they'll be able
to continue that sort of sentiment in you know, nine
months time, ten months, eleven months time leading into November.
(24:21):
So I think some of that enthusiasm will maybe taper
off a little bit as Trump becomes kind of like
a lame duck presidency.
Speaker 6 (24:29):
But I still think they'll do like Okay. In terms
of like the Democrats, I very much disapear. I think
this is going to be like a generic DE plus fourteen.
This is going to be a fucking massacre. What signs
are pointing towards that? I mean, they just won the
mayorship of Miami.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Yeah, yeah, Well so you're saying it's going to be
good for the Democrats de plus fourteen.
Speaker 6 (24:51):
Yeah, like Democrats plus fourteen. Like I'm talking like an
as a tsunami. Okay, got My prediction is that all
of the polling people are fucking cowards. What's happening right
now at the polling is that they are using the
twenty twenty four electorate. This is not the twenty twenty
four electorate. They have not figured this out yet. They
are still underestimating the exact scale of which everyone fucking
(25:13):
hates them, Like.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
I'ld be surprised if both houses flip. But yeah, here's
the thing.
Speaker 6 (25:19):
The Cuban parts of Miami, Yeah went left by like
fifteen points touch something we talked about in the show.
They are going through and systematically pissing off every single
part of their base, right, Like one of the things
one of the stories I've been tracking is about the
ways in which they've been spystematically pissing off a whole
bunch of farmers who are a very very consistent right
wing voting base, and they're pissing them off a trade
(25:40):
war bullshit because China's not buying swoydeans, right. This is
how they're losing elections in Western Iowa. I think the
other part of this too is and this is how
I think the momentum is going to be sustained, is
that things haven't even gotten as bad as they're going
to get yet. The actual standard of living in this
country right now, it is going to get so much
worse as as all of the inflation stuff sort of
racks up, et cetera, et cetera. Like, the country is
(26:02):
going to be worse. Everyone's going to be more pissed off.
Trump is going to have bombed like four more countries.
We're gonna have like cent troops into Mexico or some shit.
He's going to be so unpopular it's going to be
like it's gonna be the fucking flood out there that's possible.
Speaker 4 (26:17):
Yeah, I think the incompacy advantage becomes less and less
relevant the worse the economy gets and like that was
something Biden got hit with, right, that Trump is is
going to have to wear especially to get further and
further into his term. Right, it's a Trump economy.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
I guess this just requires that the current momentum Democrats
have to be maintained for a while, which is something
that historically Democrats haven't been great at.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Yes, yeah, they have shift at it.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
So this will require effort for you know, people like
organizing with the Democrats and social media messaging, like actual
in person like like electoral organizing to really keep this
momentum pressure going for the next eleven months, which which
is you know, they've they've done a good job at
this the past like six months, but can they like
maintain this to the mid terms. That's the only point
(27:03):
where I start to hesitate in terms of like the
scale of like a blue wave. But I think it's
it's certainly possible that that they end up doing it
quite well, but it's going to be reliant on like
maintaining this this pressure.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
No, there's still some structural difficulties that make flipping Congress
entirely very.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Difficult, especially with the redistricting stuff happening. Yeah, yeah, so
like could they take the Senate quite easily. Yeah, the
House still up in the air. For me, I think
lean the Democrat at this point, certainly leaning Democrat, but
still not confident.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
That'd be great. I just I don't want to get irrationally,
you know, ahead of our skeazier.
Speaker 6 (27:39):
I have watched very very dysfunctional state Democratic parties win
elections and districts that were R plus twenty two.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Anything can happen at this point.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
Like, yeah, no, Yeah, it's not coming from a national strategy.
It's coming from like local candidates doing well on local
issues and people fucking hating Trump. Yeah, it is not
the DNC who is putting Higgins or Mam Damie in office. Well, yeah,
that is, uh, I guess a good thing because the
DNT fucking sucks. It has always fucking sucked, and it
(28:08):
has really reinforced how much it sucks in the last
eight years.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
And being able to hit Trump and Republicans on the
economy with tariffs, this, like all the garky stuff, has
proven to be pretty successful so far, and I think
being able to continue that messaging as the economy trends
in its current direction. Being able to continue that messaging
I think will help the Democrats. Interestingly, a Platner in
Maine still seems to be the front runner for that race,
(28:35):
so I think there's a decent chance we get our
first total cob in the Senate.
Speaker 4 (28:39):
Well, he didn't absolutely dog shit cover up. I'm sorry
if you are listening and you did that yet to you,
but it's probably not your best work. Like he's got
a blob now.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
That stuff just did not prove to be super impactful
to the actual voters in Maine, it seems, and the
actual like focus on his talking points have maintained his lead.
So I think that's something that Democrats can also look
look to. Yeah, in terms of like how much of
these like you know, like tertiary like personal attacks or
like you know, genuine yeah, genuinely valid valid complaints or
(29:12):
issues are are not very dominant based on how much
emphsis is actually getting put on. This is sort of
like affordability messaging.
Speaker 5 (29:21):
To wrap up this Predictions episode, should we do a
quick death pick?
Speaker 2 (29:25):
No one's gonna die.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
I thought you're gonna ask it. Do you think we're
going to invade Venezuela?
Speaker 2 (29:30):
No? See, this is what I'm interested in I'm more
interested in are we going to start any wars? Yes?
Speaker 4 (29:34):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (29:34):
And is his cabinet going to stay the same?
Speaker 3 (29:36):
Kindness already have started.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
To answer your first question, yes, yeh.
Speaker 5 (29:42):
Is the cabit gonna stay the same?
Speaker 2 (29:45):
I'm surprised it's weird, right Trump first term there was
a lot of cabinet turnover in the first year. Sure, Scaramouchi,
this is this is not happening this year. This year
they stayed pretty tight knit, despite a lot of terminils
or like you know, issues around like Cash Battel, Pam Bondi,
RFK Junior, Pete Haig Seth with the double tap war crime.
Speaker 4 (30:06):
Strikes No as well.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
They're pretty tight knit, it seems, so. I don't know
if it's gonna be cabinet turnover. I think Cash Battel
will be out next year.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
Yeah, I think Cash might have Yeah, might be on
the edge of this.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Lost the podcast price he just found the ja Sics
pipe Bomber.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
I don't think it's gonna happen. I think the cabinet's
gonna stay the same, which I predicted against last year.
But I think based on how they've weathered certain controversies,
I do not know if Trump cares enough to do
cabinet turnover.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
Yeah who I was talking to him about these things.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
Yeah, well see, I don't there's no one that I
think is an obvious choice. I think the likeliest turnover
is Paatel.
Speaker 5 (30:47):
Then maybe hag Seth.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
I don't think he's gonna go. I think heg Seth
is too loyal, He's a he's a team player, sure,
and he has absolutely no chance of going into business
for himself. Right.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
This is the big thing is that it's not a
skill or competency that got these people their jobs, which
you know, it's kind of kind of was a factor
in Trump one point zero, in Trump two point zero.
It is just pure loyalty.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
And if they're able to prove that, especially around like
you know, the Epstein stuff really really tested those those loyalties. Yes,
And if they're able to get out of the Epstein
controversy it's like kind of intact, then I think all
these guys will be set for like the next next
little bed. I guess do we think Vance is ever
going to become a president during the next like year
(31:34):
or two.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Trump is like eighties, So I'm not going to say
there's not a twenty or thirty percent chance that just
like if Donald Trump dies, Vance becomes the president, right sure,
and like he's at the age where he could just
drop dead right outside of that, No, I don't think
he's likely to become president.
Speaker 4 (31:50):
Yeah, I do think in the next twelve months, the
US will begin a UAV campaign in the sahell quite
possibly in Nigeria. Like I think, yeah, that's possible in
the next twelve weeks, just looking at flights that they've
had very recently.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
There's a decent chance too that they start expanding the
use of special forces and maybe even keep fobs open
without the willingness of the Nigerian government. But that's a
longer shot.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
Yeah, and the Nigerian government's pretty pretty into it right now. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Do you think they're going to put troops in the
ground at either Mexico or Venezuela.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
I think there's a good chance that we utilize special
forces on the ground in parts of Mexico for brief
periods of time.
Speaker 4 (32:32):
That's a good chance that we already have.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Yeah, I mean we almost certainly already have. I think
there's a chance that we wind up having people on
the ground in Venezuela after a fuck up, right, Like,
but I think that at present their plan is airstrikes
and drone strikes. I think if we were to wind
up having anything on the ground in Venezuela, it would
be as a result of like a strike with a
manned craft going badly and someone going down over Venezuela.
(32:56):
That's not a zero percent chance if they keep fucking around.
But I really don't think they want to have troops
on the ground in Venezuela. I think they want to
be striking targets in Venezuela.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Yeah, it's not a place where they want. You want
largs them by the troops to be to be engaging
like that wouldn't go well. Trump does not want to
wear that, right, Like if we saw in Syria, like
he wasn't willing to deploy large now about the troops.
He was willing to use a lot of drone and
air strikes even when the civilian cost was very high.
(33:28):
And I think that is the model, Like that that
strike cell model that we saw, like like the strike
in Bagus at the end of the Islamic State is
probably a good example of the sort of yeah, quote
unquote collateral damage right killing civilians that we can expect
them to see as acceptable.
Speaker 6 (33:43):
I think the final point on this is that the
Trump administration genuinely believes that they can top of visions
with their strikes. They thought they thought this with the
hoo Us and they think there's a buff venezuela. They
actually think you can do this despite all evidence of
the contrary. So I think it's going to inform a
lot of their decisions.
Speaker 4 (33:59):
Yeah, and I think like kind of not not Syria
with a SAD but Syria with the Islamic State. We're
reinforced that for them, but like obviously overlooking like that
they have an incredible partner for us, so they don't
have in these places.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
Well, I think that's our predictions. First time we're not
doing a desk segment, and you know what, I feel fine,
other Yep, no one's gonna die twenty twenty seven Mars.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (34:21):
Still, I'm not going to say it this time because
I've been inadvertually blessing him with long life.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
It could happen. Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
cool zonemedia dot com or check us out on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
You can now find sources for it could happen here
listened directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.
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Robert Evans
Garrison Davis
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