Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Col Zone Media.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Hello everyone, and welcome to it could happen here. My
name is Dana al Kurd and I'm a writer, analyst,
and researcher of Palestinian and Arab politics. I'm an associate
professor of political science and a senior non resident fellow
at the Arab Center Washington. I'm recording this on October nineteenth,
twenty twenty five. Negotiators from a number of countries and
(00:28):
Israel were in Cairo recently discussing the next phase of
the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Hamas has since
released all remaining Israeli hostages as well as the bodies
of those who were killed, and Israel has withdrawn from
certain parts of the Gaza Strip and started to release
political prisoners as well as the bodies of Palestinians who
(00:50):
have been killed after they were detained since October seventh.
Some of the testimonies from these prisoners is just incredibly
heart to stomach. The degree of the humanization that's been
allowed to take place in these Israeli prisons, the torture
and abuse that they faced, is truly truly harrowing. Some
(01:11):
of the Palestinian bodies that have been released, are mutilated
with extreme signs of torture. Some were released blindfolded and cuffed,
returned with a noose around their neck. Greta Tunberg, who
was on the flotilla recently trying to break the siege
of Gaza, just also returned from Israeli prison where she
was also abused and stripped and mistreated. She said in
(01:36):
a recent interview, if they do this to a white
person with a Swedish passport, we can only imagine what
they do to Palestinians. And of course we are seeing
this play out before our eyes. In a fair and
just world where international law meant something, there would be
consequences for this. Instead, today I want to talk about
this plan that's been proposed by the Trump administration, the
(02:00):
Point Piece Plan for Gaza. Reportedly, ex UK Prime Minister
Tony Blair has been consulting with Trump and his son
in law slash adviser Jared Kushner for some time hashing
this plan out. We'll get back to him in a bit,
as he's quite the character. This plan, as the name suggests,
has twenty points, but it's a little light on details.
(02:23):
It outlines the return of remaining Israel hostages very quickly
within seventy two hours. It says the Gaza Strip needs
to be quote demilitarized. It talks about the creation of
an international stabilization force, an international security force to operate
on the ground in Gaza with the eventual withdrawal of
Israeli troops, but within a buffer zone, and this force
(02:47):
would consist of soldiers from other countries. It also talks
about the formation of a quote technocratic, apolitical Palestinian temporary
government to run the Gaza Strip territory until the peace
process is concluded. But this temporary Palestinian government would only
be allowed to engage in service provision nothing more. That
(03:09):
government would also be overseen by a quote Board of
Peace run by Trump himself, his pal Tony Blair, and
other yet unspecified members. There is some language on the
economic development of a quote new Gaza, and some discussion
of initiatives to promote tolerance, essentially to deradicalize Palestinians. Notably,
(03:34):
the plan does not endorse ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from Gaza,
which was wildly a serious thing on the table for
a few months that Trump endorsed. But what it does
say is still pretty insidious. Essentially, the plan says that
a possible pathway to Palestinian self determination and statehood is
conditioned on advances in quote Gaza's redevelopment and a quote
(04:00):
Palestinian authority reform program that is faithfully carried out. Only then,
the plan says, quote conditions may finally be in place
for a credible pathway to Palestinian self determination and statehood. Basically,
if the Palestinians do good, if they comply with the
International Security Force, if they take orders from the Board
(04:22):
of Peace and quote reform the PA in some way,
and what that means is a really big open question,
then maybe their demands for self determination in statehood will
eventually be discussed. As I've said before on previous episodes,
that statehood part is a bit tricky because statehood means
(04:43):
different things to different people. Apparently, Jared Kushner talked about
maybe giving Palestinians a state without the annoying little detail
of actual sovereignty. The Israeli prime minister that signed the
Oslo Accords yet Zakrabin, which was the first time Palestinians
and Israelis a reed to anything directly said after signing
(05:04):
that Israel would only ever give Palestinians something quote less
than a state. The international community keeps recognizing a Palestinian
state when the Palestinians don't really have control of any territory.
It's like is the state in the room with us now.
It's also important to note here that the plan that
Trump is proposing doesn't really include any Palestinian input, at
(05:28):
least meaningfully. The goal from Israel and the US's perspective
is for Hamas to be removed from the equation altogether.
There's some discussion actually still of whether they will actually
disarm or not, because Hamas has said to the media
that it's not considering this. And as I mentioned, there
is this throwaway line about reforming the Palestinian authority, but
(05:52):
what that means and how the Palestinian people actually factor
in isn't addressed. Here's my educated guess. When Trump, an Israel,
and the international community say they want to reform the PA,
we have to look at what they've been doing and
pushing for in the past couple of months to understand
(06:12):
what that actually means. So for them, if we look
at their track record, reforming the PA means figuring out
an acceptable alternative from their perspective, to replace the octagenarian
Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas, so that the PA can seem
on paper more legitimate and better positioned to sign away
(06:34):
Palestinian rights during future negotiations. They've already been pushing behind
the scenes to set that up. They pressured Abbas to
convene the Palestine Liberation Organization Central Council, change the bylaws,
create a vice president position, and appoint the guy that's
acceptable to the US and Israel to that role. That
man was Sena Cher, Palestinian businessman and former security guy
(06:58):
who polls at two percent with Palestinians. What reforming the
PA does not mean it looks like, is actual democratic
reform where Palestinians can choose not only their president but
also on their legislative representatives and on the PLO legislative body,
the National Council. It looks like reforming the PA doesn't
(07:20):
mean all Palestinians will be allowed to participate if limited
elections are held, and it seems it doesn't mean responding
to what Palestinian civil society has been asking for, which
is reforming the PA by reforming the PLO altogether, so
that all Palestinians can participate in the discussion of national liberation.
(07:42):
We can guess that the US, Israel, and the international
community quote unquote are unlikely to offer any of this
because they've propped up the PA in the past and
seem intent on propping up some puppet government of the
PA in the future. But they need the PA, as
some acceptable Palestinian entity to be even tangentially involved in
(08:04):
future negotiations so that they can say, look, the Palestinians
agree to this is legitimate, even if that PA doesn't
represent people. Even if most Palestinians eighty five percent in
the latest poll are dissatisfied with the PA's conduct and
forty two percent support the the solution of the PA altogether,
this is a dangerous game to play. Any sort of
(08:37):
peace process in the future, as impossible as it seems
at this current moment, that isn't predicated on the complete
annihilation of one side of the conflict, will need some
degree of public support. It will need societies involved in
this conflict to buy into the process. Otherwise you get spoilers,
(08:57):
you get political actors engaging violence to disrupt the peace process,
or you don't really resolve the underlying issues in an
even compromised, satisfactory way, and people get upset and the
conflict continues. So if you don't include people's buy in,
what you're banking on is being able to suppress people,
(09:20):
and what you want isn't really peace. It's authoritarian conflict management.
It's illiberal. It maintains structural violence in the name of
preserving peace. It means Palestinians wouldn't get the rights they
have under international law, the right to self determination, and
it means the occupation in some form doesn't end. The
(09:40):
thing is this is well understood, and it's well understood
by the people involved in this twenty point piece plan
for Gaza. Tony Blair, for example, was Prime Minister of
the UK when the Northern Ireland conflict was being negotiated
and settled. He understood then that public buy in was important.
The Good Friday Agreement, which ended the conflict in Northern
(10:01):
Ireland for the past twenty seven years, had not one
but two referendums, one for the people of Northern Ireland
and one for the people of the Republic of Ireland.
The process of getting to the Good Friday Agreement also
included all groups militant groups from both sides of the conflict.
This is what it takes for a conflict to be
(10:21):
contained in some shape or form. But for some reason,
when international leaders or ex leaders in the case of
Tony Blair, think about conflicts in the Middle East involving Arabs,
then public buy in, democratic processes, sustainable peace no longer
factor into decision making. The buy in an opinion of
(10:42):
the public matters, but apparently only certain publics. In other conflicts, also,
like the breakdown of Yugoslavia, the perpetrators of genophsidal violence
were held accountable by international law. They were taken to
the Hague. They faced repercussions, of course, not perfectly, not entirely,
not everyone. Some parties of the conflict that emerged in
(11:03):
Bosnia after were rewarded for their violence. The vision of
the Serbian leadership that committed war crimes in Bosnia came
to fruition to some degree in the form of Republica
Serpska today, which is a semi autonomous region that divides
Bosnia Herzegovina. But nevertheless, the international community at least understood
the necessity of holding perpetrators accountable for violence and war crimes,
(11:27):
even if the execution was incomplete. In this case, there
is no such discussion. A number of human rights organizations
and the UN Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian
Territory have found Israeli leaders President Isaac Hertzog, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, and then Defense Minister Yuav Gallant personally responsible
(11:48):
for the decisions made in Gaza, the decision to engage
in genocide in Gaza, but the ceasefire plan, which they
are billing as a quote peace plan for a new Gaza,
and their time trying to make the basis of future
negotiations says nothing about accountability for crimes committed. Trump, in fact,
went in front of the Kanesset, the Israeli parliament, and
(12:10):
insisted on his support for Prime Minister Natanieho. He even
got involved in Nataniahu's corruption case that he has domestically
in Israel, addressing President Isaac Hertzog, as Kanesse members clapped
and jeered, hey, I have an idea, mister President. Why
don't you give him a pardon. That's what we're dealing
(12:42):
with here, Just an audacious, outrageous display of corruption on
so many levels. The fact that these guys are the
guys putting together the so called peace plan votes poorly
for the sustainability of this ceasefire agreement beyond the first phase.
Beyond Israel getting what it wants the hostages, a huge
(13:03):
buffer zone that leaves Israel in control of Gaza's former
urban areas, and possibly they might get the neutralization of Hamas,
it's not clear that this ceasefire agreement can actually advance
into a sustainable negotiation that maintains peace in the long run.
It's why scholar Marika Sosnowski at the University of Melbourne,
(13:23):
who studies ceasefire agreements in particular, calls this a strangle contract.
She notes that Israeli withdrawal, release of hostages, and full
aid being led into Gaza is the quote bare minimum
you would expect both sides to acquiesce to as part
of a ceasefire deal. She expresses concern that this agreement
is highly coercive and that it quote enables the more
(13:48):
powerful party to force the weaker party into agreeing to
anything in order for them to survive. This is in
direct contrast to a bargain between two equal parties that
can sustain peace. She also very rightly notes that Israel
could at any time claim the Palestinians are not abiding
by the terms of the agreement and and the ceasefire,
(14:10):
justifying restarting the war. The Palestinians have no leverage at
all in this agreement, and obviously they can't rely on
unbiased international mediation with the Trump and Kushner and Blairs
of the world. At the helm of this Sisnowski quotes
a Palestinian leader from Yermuk camp in Syria who said,
to her quote, if there is a ceasefire, people know
(14:33):
the devil is coming. I think that captures exactly everyone's
fears in this moment. The Palesadian Civil Defense Agency says
forty Palestinians have been killed in Gaza today October nineteenth.
Children have been shot and killed in the West Bank.
After the ceasefire agreement, Israel raided the family homes of
Palestinian prisoners in five districts across the West Bank before
releasing them. Nataniehu has said he won't open the Rafach crossing.
(14:56):
These all seem like Israeli violations to the ceasefire to me,
but that's not how it'll be reported. And because the
Trump administration has twisted the meaning of words where domination
equals peace and injustice equal stability. Once this happens, I
fear very few will question the premise of this agreement
and the entire peace process to begin with a peace
(15:19):
process for Palestinians aren't even allowed to participate. No one
can be surprised when this doesn't last, and no one
can be surprised that this cannot be the basis for
sustainable peace. But hey, I hope I'm wrong. Thank you
for listening to this episode of It Could Happen Here.
Here's hoping for justice and peace.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
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