The Desantis Campaign Death Spiral

Robert sits down with James and Gare to talk about the nuts and bolts of Ron's disastrous campaign.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:05):
Ah, welcome to it could happen here a podcast where myself,
Garrison Davis, and James Stout just created a new soon
to be beloved fiction character, racist Sherlock's holmes. And don't worry,
We're not done workshopping at It's not ready to go
public yet. But when this bit drops you people are
gonna lose your minds Ah, how's everyone doing today?

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Much better after learning about racist shadow crimes?

Speaker 1 (00:33):
Uh huh? After no, we didn't learn about him. He
burst fully formed from our heads like Athena from the
brain of Zeus. Ah. Good stuff. Speaking of the Greek
and Roman pagan pantheon, James Garrison, you know who does

(00:55):
kind of have the feel of a malevolent spear it
in Greek mythology is Ron DeSantis.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yeah, not wrong, sure, run, That's what they call him.

Speaker 3 (01:10):
For all my years study studying the papyrie, this is
I can't confirm.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
Yeah, meetball Ron, I'm gonna I have a long essay
on my substack about how meatball Ron and the Egyptian
deity Maat are are really uh directly related to one another.
But that that that'll that'll you can find that on
my substack. My Egyptology focused substack.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, he's not what's this, what's the god of the sun,
the god of the Sun disc the one they tried
to do a monotheism for.

Speaker 1 (01:42):
Oh yeah, that isn't that raw? Yeah?

Speaker 2 (01:46):
Right, yeah, I can see seeing himself in those terms.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
No, Mat, I think.

Speaker 3 (01:52):
The sentence is more of like a Horus figure. Actually yeah,
I mean.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
No, because Matt here's the thing. Matt has wings uh,
and Ronda Santis is currently flying over us, uh, shading
us all in the comfort of his of his mighty
technicolor wingspan.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
I'm seeing, Matt. Let's there's too many colors in these
in these in these wings.

Speaker 4 (02:17):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (02:17):
I don't know why we got onto a comparing Ronda
Santis to this was a mistake anyway, Garrison. You just
last week we closed out on two great episodes about
fash wave and uh, the adoption uh and kind of
reposting of a lot of these aesthetics that had become
popular on the far right via you know, the the

(02:39):
dark branded memes, And a big part of that was
how Ronda Santis somehow allowed some incredibly internet poisoned zoomers
to make an ad for him that was far too
online for a presidential campaign ad and I felt like
it was time to kind of have a discussion about
meatball ron because obvious things in Florida are very ugly

(03:02):
right now. As a fascist, which he definitely is, Ronda
Santis is an effective administrator, yeah, which I mean he's
good at twisting the administrative state that exists into a
weapon to attack marginalized groups. He's been effective at that.
What's happening legally, you know, in the laws, you know

(03:23):
a lot of the anti trans laws, the anti drag
laws in Florida is very frightening. What he's been doing
to the Florida education system, state education system is very unsettling,
And you know that is all of that is worthy
of further discussion. But I think because the most immediate
concern we have is like, is this guy going to
be able to do that on a national scale? Right,
Which is not to say that we should just let Florida,

(03:45):
you know, sink into the ABYSS. I don't believe that.
But at the moment, Rond de Santis is tied for
second place against Donald Trump, So it kind of it
behooves us to ask the questions purely for the purpose
of self deface? Can Ron DeSantis win? Right? Could he
actually become not? Even the first question is like, could

(04:06):
he become the Republican presidential candidate? Can he beat Donald Trump?
And the short good answer to that is I don't
think so. It's not looking good. Not looking good for
all meetball. Ron agreed, and I wanted to get into
why and kind of some of the fundamental flaws as
a guy who is there was kind of this belief fear,
I think a reasonable fear among a lot of liberals
and folks on the left that because of how effective

(04:28):
he's been consolidating and expanding his power in Florida, and
because he's generally seemed like less of a like Donald
Trump has certain competences as an authoritarian. There's things he's
very good at, but he was not good at being
the president. He was not good at using power.

Speaker 3 (04:44):
He's not too much of a fascist in a loss.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
Not an effective fascist, right Like, he wasn't good at
picking people to like do things for him. He wasn't
good at He was good at hurting people in a
blunt way, but he was kind of incompetent at rerat
like a competent fascist like Hitler was a competent fascist, right,
he was not in there long in an elected position
before he had effectively made it impossible to oust him

(05:07):
without military force. And Trump was never good at doing
that stuff. And the worry is that Ronda Santis would
be The good news is that Ronda Santis is incompetent
as a politician and a political candidate. So I wanted
to kind of start with why a lot of his
the people who do form his base, which is quite
shrinking at the moment, he's losing a lot of support,

(05:29):
why they thought he was capable of winning the primary
and the general. And when you look into kind of
why a lot of sort of Republican like legacy Republicans,
the folks who often be called Rhinos, why a lot
of them decided to back Ronda Santis. The best summer
you're going to get comes from Phil Hauffines, who was
a businessman in Texas whose car dealership ran a series

(05:49):
of ads that are like plastered forever in the memories
of everyone who lived in the DFW area in the
late nineties early two thousands, and in a CNN interview
a few days ago, he said this, when one looks objectively,
at who can beat Biden. It's going to be DeSantis.
We already had a match with Biden and Trump. Trump
turns out Democrats better than anybody. DeSantis will be able
to articulate more clearly what Republicans stand for, and he's

(06:09):
not going to be bogged down in other stuff that
Trump brings to the election. I don't think that was
a logical thing to think a year ago, right, because
it is true that Trump turns out the dims. The
idea that like DeSantis isn't gonna get bogged down and
shit has become kind of fundamentally silly. Like he's gotten
bogged down in the fact that a lot of his

(06:30):
you know, backers are invested in culture warship that does
not sell well on a national level. This whole like
anti trans crusade he's on the anti woke shit is
not a big vote getter. It just gets the base
behind you, and like, you're never gonna beat Trump in
a race to the base. You know, Trump has the
core of the hard right Republican Party in his pocket

(06:52):
and they're not gonna like move on from anybody. DeSantis's
hope should have been like going after independence people on
the edge people who are like unhappy with Biden, and
I think when you pick this sort of like hate crusade,
it hasn't worked well. But Huffines decided that like, yeah,
this guy, this is the dude who has a shot.
I think he can actually like pull it out from Trump.

(07:15):
I think he's got the ability to like get a
lot of people in the middle or close to the middle.
This has been proven kind of absurd over the last
couple of months of stagnating poll numbers. Huffine says that
the governor recently held a meeting with about one hundred
and fifty Texas Republicans in Dallas, where he quote impressed
them with his stamina, youth, and performance in recent Florida

(07:36):
state elections. And there's a number of reasons to think
that this is a bad strategy that like really laying
on his performance in the last Florida election is like
a good way for him to win support. One of
these has to do with the fact that like Florida
is the national watchword for crazy right like the rest.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
Of their unan.

Speaker 1 (07:55):
Yeah, even a lot of Conservatives when they're talking about
like madness in America talk about Florida like Florida. Man
is an archetype and like, yeah, there's a lot of
right wing culture warriors who like Ron's anti immigrant and
anti LGBT policies, but moderates and swing voters the people
he has a chance of pulling away from Trump. Like,
if you tell them I want to make New Hampshire

(08:16):
more like Florida, most swing voters are going to be
like that sounds like hell, I don't want to be
anything like that place. Like what a horrible what a
horrible idea. This is a sentiment that you will find
among Republican thought leaders. Quote. One Republican consultant who has
worked on presidential campaign said DeSantis was making a classic
governor's mistake by talking extensively about his past accomplishments. Yeah,

(08:39):
put bluntley. People in Ohio or Iowa do not want
to be Florida. They don't care about Florida, and they
are tired of hearing about Florida.

Speaker 3 (08:46):
Yeah, because he's he's so reliant on the types of
coverage to come out during the past two years of
legislative stuff he's done in Florida, and he's I guess
forgetting the overall view of that people have of Florida
divorce from his own administrative changes.

Speaker 2 (09:03):
Yeah, it's not like people are moving in droves to
Florida Bay because he's defeated the woke menace and he
created a paradise. Like, yeah, he's getting high on his
own supply.

Speaker 1 (09:13):
He's getting high on his own supply. It's one thing.
There's a degree of his campaign that's focused on like
what he calls like the Florida Miracle, the fact that
Florida economically weathered COVID pretty well. And again, this would
be a stronger point if like Florida's economy was booming
and everywhere else was bad. But the US economy overall,
in terms of like the numbers that you know economists

(09:34):
care about at least, is like doing reasonably well. And
like of the shit that is bad in the US economy,
it's not any better, Like inflation is not better markedly
better in Florida than it is in Iowa. Right, there's
just not a good case to be made because like
when you're not when you can't really drive the economic
point home, when you can't be like look at how
much better Flora is doing than your home. You know,

(09:55):
it's a it's a fucking paradise compared to the you know,
shitty economy in Ohio. That's an argument you can make
if there's any evidence for it, But when you're like,
you can't really make the economic argument. It all comes
down to culture war stuff, and most Americans don't want
this culture warshit going on in their backyard because it's
like a gross, weird pain in the ass. So right now,

(10:16):
the bulk of DeSantis support comes from higher income, old
guard Republicans, the kind of were lukewarm for Trump from
the beginning, and the kind to point out rightfully that
he didn't win against Biden. It's time for new blood.
This is true, but current polling indicates it's not what
most GOP voters want, which is kind of the big
problem the Republicans have is that this is why Trump's
definitely gonna win, you know, as the primary campaign, is

(10:40):
that like the hardcore of the GOP cannot be overcome
by the moderates because the hardcore is so in lockstep
about what they want, and what they want is Trump.
The moderates don't have control of the party, but the
moderates are the ones who can like actually win a
general election. So Yeah, it's it's a tough situation for

(11:02):
them to be in. And one of the things that
kind of shows how fucked Ron is is that, like
Ron won reelection in Florida in his last scubernatorial campaign
by about twenty points a year or so ago. In Florida,
Trump currently has a twenty point lead on him.

Speaker 3 (11:17):
Not great, not great.

Speaker 1 (11:18):
So that's a disaster, like because again not only like
should you be able to bring in your home state
as a sitting governor, but like it shows that Ron
is not popular because of his legislative achievements. He's popular
because Florida is just that right wing right. Like that's
like currently like the electoral state or status of Florida

(11:39):
is very conservative. And so Ron won by an overwhelming margin.
But that doesn't mean people love him. They definitely like
Trump more than they like him. Bad situation to be in,
and a number of early backers in DeSantis's orbit have
begun to acknowledge this reality. I'm gonna quote from NBC
News here. Yeah, there are a number of people grumbling
about it, no doubt. A Desantist owner said, there is

(12:00):
an overall sense, including with me, that he just is
not ignited the way we thought he would. And I
find that really interesting because you get versions of that
a lot that like, we were expecting him to really
take off as soon as he started campaigning, and he hasn't,
and that was our only strategy. You get this, and
like if you read interviews with like folks who were
in the DeSantis orbit and people, because a number of

(12:22):
his early backers have like peeled away and rescinded their
their endorsements and given them the Trump it was this
hope they had that like once as soon as he's
out in front of America, Americans are going to love
this guy because he's all the good stuff about Trump
with none of the baggage. And that was just fundamentally
disastrously wrong. And I think one of the things we're

(12:43):
starting to see is that the Dysantis people didn't have
another plan for how to get this guy elected. Like
their plan was that we think that Trump's policies are popular,
but everyone doesn't like Trump, and no, that's actually not accurate.

Speaker 2 (12:57):
He opposite a true almost like some of them just
like Trump as a person.

Speaker 1 (13:02):
Yeah, a lot of them don't care about what he's done.
They like the fact that he owns the Libs, right, they're.

Speaker 3 (13:06):
Not he's a compelling character. Yeah, DeSantis is a void
of charisma.

Speaker 2 (13:13):
He is.

Speaker 3 (13:14):
He is not a compelling character. He's actually like he's
good at being like an administrator in like like yeah,
he's like he's very successful in doing bad things.

Speaker 1 (13:23):
And he's a guy you make your chief of staff
if you're yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 3 (13:27):
He's not like, he's not a compelling character, like the
way Trump is.

Speaker 1 (13:32):
No, and it's it's again, it's so fascinating to me.
It says a lot about like the degree of bubble
that all of the political class are in. And when
I say the political class, I mean the people the
fairly small number of people in the left and the right,
liberals and conservatives who work on political campaigns, right, because
it's actually a pretty small community of people of the

(13:53):
folks who do the different jobs that are running political
campaigns and that are like working as the age and
legislative assistants and all that stuff for elected leaders. And
because to me, to just a guy sitting out there,
like I'm worried about Ron because what he's doing in Florida.
But from the moment I saw the guy speak, I
was like, well, this man has no charisma whatsoever. And

(14:14):
if you can't think about like how a guy could
attract voters. If there's nothing that seems appealing about a
candidate to you, if you can't understand their charisma, that's
probably a good sign that they can't get elected. I
am not mystified by why any president who was won
in my lifetime won. Right, George W. I've been in
a room with George W. Bush and watch him spoke

(14:35):
in immediately made sense why people fucking love George W. Bush.
He had an attitude, he had an air that put
people at ease. He was good at putting on a
character that people found appealing in that time and place.
There's a reason why so many voters who loved him,
you know, especially after the first campaign where it was
kind of a but like, there's a reason why he

(14:57):
got re elected, Like there's in It's the same thing
with like Bill Clinton. Right, you watch old videos of
Bill Clinton on the campaign trail before he was president.
You can see the charisma, you can see the way
he connects to audiences. You can see the things about
him that people find appealing. There's not a mystery. It's
not mysterious why Obama got elected. He's a deeply charismatic man.

(15:18):
And you know, Joe needed a little bit of help.
That's why he lost so many presidential campaigns beforehand. But
next to Donald Trump, he seems like a much more
appealing person. Like, I'm not mystified, and I'm not mystified
by why Trump got elected. Next to Hillary Clinton, Trump
felt not like a politician, not like the same people

(15:39):
who would let us down. There was this degree to
which like, you should never be you should if you're
looking at like whether or not someone can win an election,
you should never be like, well, I don't get it,
but I guess maybe they have. They must have some
sort of charisma, because everybody's talking about them as a
serious candidate.

Speaker 4 (15:57):
Now.

Speaker 1 (15:57):
Honestly, if you can't see anything about appealing about a candidate,
then that might be a good sign that they're they're doomed.
And I think DeSantis is fucking doomed. And this is
kind of a thing that a lot of his early
backups has started to realize. One DeSantis aligned operative told NBC,
from my understanding, if we don't see a bump in
the polls, we're basically going to shut down the idea

(16:18):
of a national operation. This is really something that like
we're probably going to see. I wouldn't be surprised if
he kind of has a blowout politically pretty early in
the primary season next year, because he raised a lot
of money earlier in his campaign. He raised about twenty
million or so between mid May and the end of
June of this year, which actually put him ahead fundraising

(16:38):
wise of Trump by about two million or so. But
the Trump campaign ended last quarter with twice as much
cash on hand as Wrong Alongside is still dominating lead
in the poll. So Ron has raised a lot of money,
which kind of speaks to the number of sort of
like Republican institutional backers who hoped that he could win
where Trump had failed. But he blew all that shit

(17:00):
and it didn't get him anything, right, Like, he didn't
raise a like he crept up a teeny amount in
the polls, but he's still like tied for second with
Donald Trump despite blowing all of that money. And I
think we're going to reach a point pretty quickly where
if he doesn't immediately take you know, a state or
two or three from Trump in the early primaries, any

(17:23):
kind of hope he has for further donations is going
to dry up, because, like, why would you keep wasting
that money? We all saw how much money got wasted
trying to take Trump out of the primaries in twenty sixteen.
I do think people are going to be a little
more gun shy this time. There have already been a
number of recent layoffs of major staffers by DeSantis. He's
kind of purged a big chunk of the people who

(17:45):
started his campaign. One of the things that's a little
interesting about him in his political career is that as
a politician, he has always been kind of noted as
kind of weird within Florida politics because every election he's had,
he's had an entirely new team of people. He does
not work with the same people twice. He does not
have like bring people back for his campaigns, which is

(18:06):
really unusual in US politics for a successful politics. When
you win, you tend to bring him back a lot
of the same people who helped you win the last time.
And so the fact that Ron doesn't do that, that
he's got such basically one hundred percent churn in his
teams suggests a couple of things. One he's not great
to work with, and two the people who work with
him and have been successful and are good don't see

(18:29):
him as someone with national potential, right. They don't want
to keep working with him because then they get kind
of trapped in the loop of being a Desantist guy.
They want to move on somewhere else because they think
governor is as high as this guy can go. You know,
like that is kind of one of the things that
you see when you note this dude has such total
turnover in his fucking teams. Now again, for all of

(18:51):
the money that he spent, Ron's polling numbers have changed
basically nil from when he announced his candidacy, according to
New York Magazine, kind of related a bunch of this together.
In the Real Clear Politics average of polls starting July first,
twenty twenty two, Trump had a thirty four point lead
over Ron DeSantis and fifty two point eight percent of
the vote in national surveys, with DeSantis at eighteen point five.

(19:15):
At present, he's got Trump's lead over to Santas So
a year ago, Trump had a thirty four point lead
over to Santis. Now he's at thirty two, which is
not the speed of movement that you want to see.
After a year of effectively campaigning. On the national surveys,
DeSantis has gone from eighteen point five percent to about

(19:35):
twenty one percent, which again is just kind of like
a disastrous rate of change. Now, this is just one poll.
There's PROBA potentially outliers here. I've seen other polls that
show DeSantis at more like twelve percent and tied with
Vivic Ramaswami, who is another GOP candidate. Like the fact

(19:56):
that Vivek, who is not nearly the kind of national
name DeSantis is, is tight with him and some polls
now is fucking disastrous. He and Trump are pretty close
in terms of funding. Vivec has raised only a fraction
of what DeSantis has raged So that's a pretty bad sign.
Kind of a fucking disaster. One major area in which

(20:17):
Ron lags behind Trump is his ability to draw interest
and what amounts to free advertising from the media. Trump
famously got about a billion dollars in free publicity in
twenty sixteen thanks to relentless media coverage of his every move,
gaff and speech. He understood it didn't matter if it
was negative, It didn't matter that they were shit talking
to me. What matters that they're keeping my face out front, right,

(20:39):
this is a thing that will bring me support, It
will bring me donors, it will make my supporters see
me as like this kind of gladiator fighting for them.
He leaned into this shit. On the surface, Ron and
Trump are kind of the same in their approach to
the media, and that if you go to a Dessanta speech,
you go to a Trump's speech, they're going to call
the media the enemy of the people or some variant there.

(21:00):
They're going to talk about the need to control the press.
They're going to like support authoritarian measures against like free
you know, the free press, like like again, if you're
kind of just looking on the surface, it seems like
they have the same attitude towards the media, but the
way they treat journalists is completely different, and that DeSantis

(21:21):
has no strategy with the media. He just attacks them.
If you're if you're right wing media, if you're some
podcaster he likes, he'll go on your show, he'll talk
to you. But he ignores the liberal media. He ignores
the mainstream media. But that's that's different from having a
tactic for dealing with them. Trump has a strategy with
the media. He will howl that they're the enemy, of
the people in front of crowds. He'll talk about locking

(21:43):
up journalists, but if you like read articles about him
after a speech or whatever, he always gives the press
their time. He knows a lot of these guys by name.
He has relationships with reporters. He's had relationships with like
Maggie Haberman of The Times. He's he's able to be
like friendly with these people and social with them, which
isn't like, doesn't make it's not doing that to be
a good person. He's doing it because like he wants

(22:05):
them to feel comfortable around him and cover him.

Speaker 3 (22:09):
And like and this is this is the thing that
he's been doing longer than he's been a politician, like
Trump is primarily like a media guy.

Speaker 1 (22:16):
Like he is.

Speaker 3 (22:16):
He is someone who's been able to very successfully manipulate
public image and manipulate media in his favor for years.
Especially as like he's not like a good businessman, He's like, no,
he's like a con man who's like really good. He's
a good promoter, so like he knows how to do this.
DeSantis has none of this background, so he's just trying
to copy like the hostile vibe of Trump without understanding

(22:38):
the actual like media backing that Trump puts into his UH,
into his like relationship with UH, with like with like
advertising and with having you know, any any amount of
coverage that will get Republicans be like, oh, this is
a guy that's worth voting for.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
Yeah, and we'll also that will the kind of coverage
that will make independence pay attention to him.

Speaker 4 (22:59):
Right.

Speaker 1 (23:00):
A big thing part of how a lot of negative
media coverage worked for Trump is that people would just
see his name in the fucking news, and you know,
so they would wind up reading and listening to a
lot of what he had to say. And because like,
you know, he's getting so much coverage, and because all
of these media outlets want to present the image of
being unfair and unbiased. Like when Trump would go out

(23:21):
and sit down with a New York Times, sit down
with the post it down, he would often get coverage
that like, let him say his piece, let him make
his case like they would because they didn't want to
feel like they were being biased and he was giving
them some of his time. But when you just cut
the media off like the Santas has done, you don't
get that from them. You don't get any of like
the benefit of this sort of like idea of impartiality,

(23:42):
which cuts down on your ability to actually like reach
people who might be converted to vote for you. This
is highlighted particularly well in a segment from a recent
New York Times article Ontosanta's difficulty getting press coverage. Quote.
Assigned to cover the reelection campaign of Governor Ronda Santas
of Florida, Miles Cohen and the young ABC News reporter
found himself stymied. The governor would not grant him an interview,

(24:04):
aids barred him from some campaign events, and interrupted his
conversations with supporters. When mister Cohen was finally able to
ask a question about the governor's handling of Hurricane Ian,
mister DeSantis shouted him down, stop, stop, stop, and scolded
the media for trying to cast dispersions. The Dessanta's campaign
then taunted mister Cohen on Twitter, prompting a torrent of
online vitriol. So on election night, mister Cohen de camp

(24:25):
to a friendlier environment for the news media mar A Lago,
where former President Donald J. Trump greeted reporters by name.
He came up to us, asked how the sandwiches were,
and took twenty questions, mister Cohen recalled mister Trump, who
heckled the fake news in his speech. That evening elevated
media bashing into a high art for Republicans. But ahead
of the next presidential race, potential candidates like mister DeSantis
are taking a more radical approach, not just attacking nonpartisan

(24:48):
news sources but out ignoring them altogether. And yeah, I
think that kind of like gets at the core of
what a bad strategy this is. And it shows all
of the Republicans right now because of Trump's success in
twenty sixteen, which we do have to remember, was not
based on converting a majority of Americans. It was based
in part on like the electoral system and just raw

(25:11):
luck that shit broke the way it did. But they
are looking at like his success in twenty sixteen and
trying to copy that. But it's like a cargo cult thing, right.
They don't actually understand what he did that work. They
see him bashing the media and his speech, so they're like, well,
I'm gonna be even harder. I'm not going to talk
to the media at all. And it's like, well, you
have eliminated for yourself the primary benefit that Trump drew

(25:32):
out from this.

Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, I think the Coga cult script is great. They're
like they're trying to have the appearance of doing the
Trump thing without understanding why, Yeah, the thing worked.

Speaker 3 (25:42):
And like also importantly, it's not like twenty sixteen anymore.
As much as it feels like twenty sixteen was the
here that never ended, actually a lot has changed. And
also a lot of media has gotten a bit wise
to the tactics that Trump did. Like they're no longer
going to be blasting all of his speeches every time
he says something outrageous because they know that's part of
his strategy. So, yeah, the same tactics. If de Santis

(26:04):
thinks he's going to get publicity for saying some horrible
thing in his speech, the media knows what's up now,
Like they've already seen this, like playbook get played. It's
not like it's you can't treat it like eight years ago.

Speaker 1 (26:18):
Yeah. I think a good example of this is in
twenty sixteen, if it had come out, if Joe Biden
had been the front writer, say he beats you know,
Hillary Clinton, but everything else is the same. So he's
the Democratic primary guy, Say it comes out that his
son has been smoking crack with prostitutes, and like there's
pictures of his hog everywhere and he was involved in
so he gets charges against him for committing a couple

(26:39):
of crimes that might sink a presidential campaign in twenty sixteen.
Nobody gives a shit about Hunter Biden, Like zero moderate
it's not a single vote is being changed as a
result of the Hunter Biden situation in twenty twenty or
it's a different landscape and these people haven't. This is
a good thing. I am frightened for in a new

(27:01):
you know, there's another coup in conservative politics, and somebody
understands that it's a different year. Yea, yeah, but we
are we are fortunate at this moment. And you know
who else is fortunate.

Speaker 2 (27:13):
Who's that robot?

Speaker 1 (27:14):
The sponsors of this podcast, they're fortunate to have great
pitchmen like James Stout. James, why don't you tell the
people which meal box subscription will finally cure the gnawing
pit of anxiety at the center of their life and
and bring them both both peace and the love of
Jesus Christ.

Speaker 2 (27:31):
Yeah. Absolutely, we're pretty gonna have to uh, we're gonna
have to bleat some shit out here, but absolutely when
the uh, I personally love been a big chicken wing
fam my whole life until the baby's arms from yaprint arrived.

Speaker 1 (27:44):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (27:44):
They are delicious, little little fatty ams from freshlyew horbsted babies.
And I've felt better inside and out since I started
eating children.

Speaker 1 (27:52):
Yeah, just remember our our motto. Uh, nothing's wafficking like
human traffic. Shit.

Speaker 3 (28:01):
Go to go to HelloFresh dot com, use promo code
children Arms for a discount.

Speaker 1 (28:07):
Blue Apron actually cut HelloFresh there, they're giving us a
lot of money. It's Blue Apron. We shipp on Ah,
We're back and we're thinking about how there's one food
box company who's been accused of a lot of malfeasance

(28:30):
and another food box company who are I think it's
safe to say Christ like, you know, honestly, and.

Speaker 3 (28:38):
Jesus Jesus inspired to at the very least.

Speaker 2 (28:42):
Yeah, but the reason Jesus actually rose from the dead
was to consume a breakfast. That's right by Blue Apron.

Speaker 1 (28:50):
Jesus. Jacob big omelet guy, huge omlet guy. Anyway, I
don't know, that's not really a joke. So Ron DeSantis
has long ignored any meat and not guaranteed to be
fawningly indulgent of him. For political reasons, this worked well
in Florida. He's been able to get by by attacking
centrist in liberal media and embracing a constellation of far
right podcasters and Fox News. But Florida is not the

(29:12):
United States, and a governor's race is not a federal election.
He simply can't succeed against Trump with the same tactics
that worked in Florida's or against Florida's anemic state Democratic Party.
When he's tried to rebut the naysayers who see his
cause as largely doomed, DeSantis has tried to publicly downplay
the significance of national polls. It is one of my
favorite things. Whenever people point out, like, your polls have

(29:34):
not moved in a year, and you've spent millions and
millions of dollars, He'll be like, I don't trust those polls.
Those polls don't really matter. You can't trust the poll
to get how wrong the polls were in twenty sixteen articles.

Speaker 3 (29:45):
I've seen him use that line a lot. Look, look
how wrong the polls were in twenty sixteen.

Speaker 1 (29:50):
Okay, Ron, Yeah, I don't think they were not off
by thirty four points. You can see clearly how he's
making his case currently to donors in private, because a
memo that he's sent out to a bunch of his
high dollar donors leaked recently. There's been a number of
websites that have written about it. But we have like

(30:11):
this memo, which is fascinating. It was sent out to
a bunch of big dollar donors, to a super pack,
So these are the people who are not limited by
like campaign contributions because it's to a superpack. So these
are like the thick pockets people. So we get an
idea of how he is marketing his campaign right now
that it's in a crisis, and it starts with a

(30:31):
state of the race update with a subtitle the ballot
is very fluid. Early state voters are only softly committed
to the candidates they select on a ballot question this
far out, including many Trump supporters. Our focused group participants
in the Early States even say they don't plan on
making up their mind until they meet the candidates or
watch them debate. Well, we know Trump's flor is twenty

(30:52):
five percent. That leaves three quarters of the electorate willing
to consider other viable options. What has not changed to
the candidates who are realistically being courted by the electorate.
As it has been for the last year, Trump and
DeSantis remain the only viable options for two thirds of
the likely Republican primary electorate. Well, Tim Scott has earned
a serious look at this stage, as Bio is lacking
the fight that our electorate is looking for in the

(31:13):
next president. We expect Tim Scott to receive appropriate scrutiny.
In the weeks of head we found low to no
interest in Vivek Bergham and Nikki, while too many voters
will not consider Pencer Christie for them to be remotely viable. Now,
I agree about pens and Christy. Neither of those people
is going to be the primary candidate. But again Vivek
and some polls is right up there with Ron de Santis.

(31:34):
So yeah, note that neither of them's gonna win.

Speaker 2 (31:38):
Great sign.

Speaker 3 (31:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (31:40):
The MIMO goes on to note and to sort of
admit that their efforts and other primary states have hit
a wall and they're basically like, we're given up in
Iowa and Ohio kind of we're not going to be
putting new resources into them. We're just going to throw
everything we've got into New Hampshire. There's a couple of
reasons for this, but I think it's largely that they
don't think they can win in those other early states,

(32:02):
and they know they desperately need an early wind to
have any hope of building up momentum. Yeah, language like
this from the memo has to have experienced Republican politico's
nervous While Super Tuesday is critically important, we will not
dedicate resources to Super Tuesday. That's slow our momentum in
New Hampshire. We expect to revisit this investment in the fall.

(32:23):
I'm sure you will not a great sign guys the memo.

Speaker 3 (32:28):
I'm sure you'll be revisiting a lot of things in
the fall.

Speaker 1 (32:34):
The memo also claims Governor DeSantis and his messager thriving
in town hall engagements. So basically, when Rod gets in
front of people, they see his magnetic charisma. They really
like him once he gets a chance to shine in
front of them. Now, there's been no evidence in polling.
He's been in front of people quite a bit, and
he's not very impressive. Most of the social media response

(32:55):
to his public appearances have been people making fun of
the way he eats in public, Like there's like six
or seven different videos out that are him trying to
eat something and looking like a goober and people making
fun of him, Whereas like again Trump has because he's
actually charismatic. Trump can like sit in a truck and
look like a dufus playing truck driver and everybody's like,

(33:18):
look at that guy. Even people who hate him are like, well,
that's kind of endearing. Look at him. He's hogging the horn.
He's pretending to be a big truck driver. You know.
Meet ball Ron. I mean we call him meatball Ron
because of a food related gaff.

Speaker 2 (33:31):
Putting Ron.

Speaker 1 (33:32):
Putting Ron too. He's just a disaster in public. There
are some useful bits in this leaked document. This is
the part of the document where the Desanta's campaign is
like trying to lay out what they see as his
assets as a candidate. And again the goal of this
is to get big dollar donors to give him more money.
So this is them making the case as to why
Ron is worth further investment. We found that when voters

(33:56):
hear about the governor's bio, principally as a dad and
as a veteran, they like him and are open to
hearing more about him. This says to say nothing of
his successes on parental rights, his leadership bringing Florida's economy
back during and after COVID, fighting illegal immigration, and ensuring
Border Act security. That he's not just a fighter, but
most importantly a winner. A major paid media effort featuring
the governor's bio will help us to convert three big

(34:19):
issues that you know. That's again, so the three big
issues he's highlighting that he says like, these are the
things that are going to get voters onto us enough
of them that we can overcome Trump's twenty five percent
floor our anti immigration stuff. Well, I'm sorry, man, Trump's
got you beat there. The wall is his.

Speaker 2 (34:36):
Right descentist has tried to go one step further. And
if you saw his press conference in Texas where he
the birthrights team thing, yeah no to shooting people.

Speaker 1 (34:46):
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.

Speaker 2 (34:47):
I think he said quite drop a few of them.

Speaker 1 (34:50):
Yeah, he's trying to. But again he just talked about
what's interesting to me. He opens this memo by starting like, look,
Trump's got a twenty five percent floor of but you know,
there's that other three quarters of people we can get.
And yet when you are talking about gunning people down
at the border, you're just trying to take that twenty
five percent from Trump. You are not reaching out to

(35:12):
like the people who are less maniac right, he's trying,
Like again, it's just bad strategy. It's a bad strategy
within the context of what his people have laid out
as a strategy. Right, Like, if the good strategy is
go for the other seventy five percent of the voters, well,
you probably don't do that by promising to be even
harder on the border.

Speaker 2 (35:34):
Yeah, and he doesn't really even have like obviously Trump
didn't have a coherent border policy either, but he had
a thing, right, Like, he had a sort of shiny thing.

Speaker 3 (35:45):
That he had three words that were very power build
the wall.

Speaker 1 (35:49):
And you know, if desantists thinks Americans are ready for
shoot them, all, right, you can try that. But he's not.
He's like trying to do this weasel thing anyway, it's
just not there's just not any evidence of an actual tactic,
there of an understanding of like what people find appealing
and how to highlight it. He's not doing it yet,
He's not if you're a donor. He's not exhibiting the

(36:11):
idea that he knows how to copy what Trump did
and do it one better, like your goal here at
if you're running against Trump based on kind of what
they lay out, is what their strategy needs to be,
which is get the other seventy five percent of people
to back us instead of Trump. You need to be
you don't need to be yes ending you are acknowledging

(36:32):
by laying that out as the strategy that Trump his
appeal is. He's got a dedicated base of appeal, but
it's limited, and so if you are trying to make
the case that you're more electable than him, you need
to show how you have a wider base of a
wider appeal than he does. And you don't do that
by being like, I'm even shittier on the border, like anyway,

(36:55):
just a bad strategy since he doesn't have a strong
case to make an absolute numbers. Ron's campaign has made
the call to push heavily on the Forgotten Man narrative,
arguing a soft conspiratorial view that a cabal of shady
elites is colluding to ruin American greatness. Here's another quote
from that memo equally important, we will offer an economic

(37:15):
message to disrupt and win economy voters. American decline was
not an accident, It was a choice. Our elites do
not consider themselves Americans so much as they think of
themselves as citizens of the world. Their loyalty is not
to a discrete nation, but to the bottom line on
a balance sheet. And the decisions they made in leading
this country over the past few decades has reflected that worldview.
They have governed in their interests rather than ours. And

(37:37):
I do think there's a germ of something interesting there.
There's this idea of like economic populism, which was a
factor in Trump's campaign. It's interesting to me how close
Ron's idea is to outright anti Semitic conspiracy theory language like, yeah,
they don't recognize borders, they're citizens of the world, which

(38:00):
is a you know, very similar to a lot of
the arguments that like the Nazis would make about the Jews,
is that like they're a borderless people who exist within
this like financial system rather than like our national like
co citizens. Right. It's interesting to me that he's got
that this in that memo. Again, I don't think it's
a good strategy. I think the way Trump, Trump's just

(38:22):
better at doing this right at like he's made himself
like there's a lot of people who consider Trump like
their kind of guy, like a working class dude, even
though he's a billionaire with a gold toilet. I don't
see that DeSantis has the ability to like win that
kind of support from working people.

Speaker 2 (38:41):
Now. He tried really hard to go to push his
like his military record as part of a like, yeah,
sort of I'm a normal dude kind of thing, but
it doesn't seem to have stuck the landing at all. Again,
he just yeah, I just did it in a clumsy
and awkward way.

Speaker 1 (38:56):
Yeah, I mean in part because like the thing he's
got to hang on like that he was this fucking
dude doing sketchy shit at Guantanamo. Isn't like even conservatives
don't feel great about that, right.

Speaker 2 (39:07):
Yeah, he tried earlier to push like he was a leager,
he was a jag officer, like attached to a seal team.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Yeah, he tried to call himself a seal.

Speaker 2 (39:16):
Yeah, I think he like, I think he flew a
little bit too close to the sun on that one.
And again like, yeah, he fucked up and alienated the
people he was trying to appeal to.

Speaker 1 (39:26):
And I also I do kind of wonder it was
like sort of taking as red for some time that
having military experience was like a positive aspect in a
in a campaign that it would like win you a
lot of conservative voters and whatnot. I don't know that
that's really the case. Yeah's a lot of evidence for it,

(39:47):
Like people certainly like shouted when they serve, But I
don't know that it really works for him.

Speaker 2 (39:52):
Yeah, I think that's more of a like a I
don't know if I'm using the right phrasing. He like
a traditional Republican value, not like a post Trump Republican value.

Speaker 1 (39:59):
Because Trump, like on record is being like, no, only
idiots serve in the military. I'm a smart man, and
like that didn't seem to hurt him at all. But
you know who else hates veterans?

Speaker 2 (40:12):
Oh yeah, several of the food box delivery companies. They
actually they just won't give them food.

Speaker 1 (40:19):
They are they are actively every one of our supporters
is wiping their ass with whatever flag the Navy uses.
I assume they have a flag, right.

Speaker 2 (40:29):
Oh definitely, yeah, yeah, yeah, special navy flag. It works
underwater too very special.

Speaker 1 (40:34):
That's good. That's good. And underwater flag that's what we
need to bring nationalism to the fish. We're back. So
I wanted to close out by kind of looking at
a segment of Desanda supporters. You find people behind my

(40:55):
favorite reliable media institution, legal insurrection dot com. Oh good, now,
this is a kind of libertarian right themed news website.
They're like, boy, I do want you to look up
legal insurrection dot com because their website's very interesting, like
starts with this like phonetic breakdown of the phrase legal insurrection.

(41:17):
Like that's their logo that includes like a definition a
rising up against established authority, rebellion, revolt in conformity with
or permitted by law. That's a nonsense phrase, because there's
no such thing as a permitted legal insurrection. We had
this argument actually, like back in around eighteen sixty and
guess where it ended. Like, I'm not saying it's bad

(41:40):
to have an insurrection. I think some insurrections are potentially
really good, but they're never legal. Otherwise they're not an insurrection.

Speaker 2 (41:48):
Yet the same silly idea direction is illegality.

Speaker 1 (41:51):
Yeah, like one way or the other. I think it's
this idea. These people who like pretend to be libertarians,
they still have this like sacred sort of reverence for
the law. They can't just say like, yeah, I believe
in overthrowing the government. No, no, no, what I'm doing is
actually obeying the real law. The people in charge are
obeying laws that are illegal and fake. But like, I
know the real law. So what I'm not. I'm not

(42:13):
a criminal? Like no, man, just be like, yeah, man,
I'm a criminal. I want to I want to overthrow
the government. You know what's cool is being a criminal
who wants to overthrow the government. We all love criminal
This is why Star Wars is the biggest movie series.
We love criminals who want to overthrow the government. That's
who the founding fathers of this country.

Speaker 2 (42:30):
War is a very American thing to love.

Speaker 1 (42:33):
You shouldn't have to be like no, but ours is
a legal and now fuck it, you're a criminal. You're cool.
You're fucking al Capone.

Speaker 2 (42:40):
Like yeah, it's very very cooked.

Speaker 1 (42:45):
It is very cooked. Anyway. Here's an article from legal
insurrection dot com who bafflingly backs Ronda Santis Florida government.
Rond De Santis is serious about restoring executive branch agencies
and rebuilding trust with the American people who've been shocked
and appalled at the weaponization of government by the Biden
administration and before that, the Obama administration. The federal government,

(43:07):
specifically the executive branch alphabet agencies, has been completely corrupted
by the Obama, Biden and now the Biden Harris administrations.
We all know it, and we're all disgusted and disheartened
by the myriad ways the Obama administration targeted political opponents.
That's why Trump's twenty sixteen campaign to drain the swamp
was so potent. We knew the depth and breadth of
the corruption, the partisan Banana Republic style attacks on political opponents,

(43:29):
and we wanted it stopped. Unfortunately, Trump was not able
to drain the swamp at all, not even a little bit.
So when Biden took office in twenty twenty one, he
just got to work picking up Obama's attacks on ascent
with a deep state still fully embedded through the executive branch,
having spent the intervening years openly working as the resistance
to Trump's the duly elected president's agenda. God, it's such,

(43:51):
first off, very funny that they're trying to like make
the resistance to be anything but like Twitter libs like
I do find it by that they're like fucking trying
to treat this like a boogeyman.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
I'm just yeah, like leading the Maquis through to through
that I don't know, forester S Georgia and blowing up
fucking train tracks is extremely amusing to me.

Speaker 1 (44:12):
It's just sad, but it does get it something right.
This attitude among a lot of Republicans, particularly the guys
who really like DeSantis, that the deep state is really powerful.
These federal law enforcement agencies are fundamentally like fighting against us,
and we have to build an ability to compete with them.
And this is I actually think we've been mostly talking
about like the weaknesses and the dumb shit about DeSantis's campaign.

(44:35):
I think a strength he has not maybe capitalized on
enough is this idea, because this is something Trump proved
he was unable to do, like he didn't go in
there and unseat the deep state. And DeSantis has actually
been kind of effective at resisting the federal government and

(44:56):
even sidelining some federal agencies within Florida. And there's some
actual like potential for strength here with Trump's base. I
don't know that this gets you moderates, but like, it's
weird to me that he hasn't pushed this harder. Part
of that maybe the fact that he's, like everything else,
really bad at it. Kind of his strongest attempt to

(45:18):
provide sort of a countervailing force to federal law enforcement
was his activation of the Florida State Guard, which seventeen
or so states have state Guards. It's just kind of
like a state version of a National Guard. Potentially, Florida's
had not been active in a while, and he reactivated them,

(45:39):
claiming that it was going to be a force of
volunteers who could respond to hurricanes and other public emergencies.
But what he was actually doing was trying to create
a paramilitary organization. He is in the process of attempting
to do this now. These people are undergoing like military
training and whatnot. He's trying to get them access to weaponry.
Like this is potentially kind of concerning, but he's really

(46:01):
fucking bad at it. There was a really interesting New
York Times article recently that kind of goes into the
problems the Florida State Guard have had sort of spinning up,
and it's a very funny read, because it's like it's
like a little kid's idea about how you would build
a paramilitary organization. So on paper, the Governor's office has

(46:22):
said that one of the Guard's missions would be quote
to ensure Florida remains fully fortified to respond not only
to natural disasters, but also to protect its people in
borders from illegal aliens and civil unrest. And then the
New York Times article continues, the deployment this spring has
been mired in internal turmoil, with some recruits complaining that
what was supposed to be a civilian disaster response organization
had become heavily militarized, requiring volunteers to participate in marching

(46:46):
drills and military style training sessions on weapons and hand
to hand combat. At least twenty percent of the one
hundred and fifty people initially accepted into the program dropped
out or were dismissed. And if you get into this,
the people dropping out are like the veterans, They're like
military officers and stuff who got into this thing, and
then are like, I was in the military for twenty years,

(47:07):
you know, I did deployments here and here, and I
came into this thing and it's a bunch of civilians
dressed as soldiers yelling at me to do push ups
in march in a field and like trying to be
an asshole to me because they're angry that like I
have military experience and they think they know better. Like
it is so like the volunteers said the training seemed

(47:27):
poorly structured, with an order to minimum amount of time spent,
as one of them described it, marching in fields. Some
of the men said that as veterans with years of
experience in the military, they were offended when they were
yelled at by junior instructors acting like drill sergeants who
disregarded their previous ranks. I find this really fucking funny.
If you guys seen those videos coming out about like

(47:49):
they're these classes where if you're like a rich or
you know, upper middle class dude, you can pay like
ten grand to spend five days doing a fake version
of the Seals Hell week. Like your role you're like incredible,
Like yeah, you're like carrying, like hitting stuff with big hammers,
You're like crawling on your back through rocks. You're doing
all these like shitty, painful exercises, while like some dude

(48:13):
who probably fucking got an other than honorable separation from
the Marine Corps as a private second class like screams
at you a lot, and it's you know, that's what
you feel. Yeah, yeah, rolling around on a one wheel
yelling at you that you're you know, just like making
a bullshit reasons to be angry at you because idiots

(48:34):
honestly have it, Like yeah.

Speaker 3 (48:36):
It sounds like a weird mix of like expensive LARPing
and like a like a repressed kink thing for these guys.

Speaker 2 (48:43):
Like, yeah, watched the.

Speaker 1 (48:49):
Movie Full Metal Jacket, and a number one didn't watch
all of it because like our Lee Ermie or whatever
his name was. Character, they're like, the really mean drill
sergeant gets murdered after like emotionally abusing one of his recruits,
like kind of a big part of the movie, but
just saw him like making fun like yelling at people

(49:11):
and making up fun insults, and we're like, well, that's
got to be key to teaching people how to fight Garrison.
Have you seen Full Metal Jacket?

Speaker 3 (49:18):
I have not seen Full Metal Jacket.

Speaker 1 (49:21):
You'd actually probably like it's good. There's some interesting parts
of that movie well well shot, but yeah, I do
think it's really funny, Like there's potentially this is one
of those things potentially very scary to have a far
right elected leader building his own paramilitary force that is
answerable only to him. Righteah, that is a frightening thing.

Speaker 2 (49:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (49:43):
I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned about him trying this,
but he's so shitty.

Speaker 3 (49:48):
It it's like dictator one oh one. Yeah, yeah, like
it makes sense that he would try it. I mean, like, yeah,
I would never want to be a governor because I
think that's an a moral thing to do. But if
I if I was to be, yeah, pitarian governor, my
own hit squad.

Speaker 1 (50:03):
Step one, make your own army. And it says a
lot about Ron number one that of all of the
different things he's tried to do, this is the only
one that seems like, Oh, you might actually be able
to get a lot of Trump voters to switch over
to you if you promise them I'm going to do
this nationwide. And you, as a guy who didn't join
the army but is pretty sure he would have been
good at it, can like become a militant commander in

(50:27):
your like state guard thing that I'm going to establish.
You might get some votes. I don't think you'd win
a lot of moderates, but you might get the base
away from Trump.

Speaker 3 (50:35):
Right, it's just so clearly a brown Shirts rip off. Yeah,
it's just like it's so blatant that it's like it's
it's like it's like it's like he's like poorly copying
someone else's homework. Yeah, Like, I don't A lot of
his campaign has that vibe and he's like just poorly
copying someone else's homework.

Speaker 1 (50:54):
Like, I don't know that this would work, and I
still think he would have. It would be a long
shot that he would have any chance of beating Trump.
But if you were to be like I'm going to
establish a state Guard where conservatives can get access to
military grade weaponry and the right to carry their handguns everywhere,
you might get I don't again, I don't think you
went a general that way, but you might get the
base away from Trump with that. It's at least more

(51:16):
creative than anything else he's tried. Anyway, this is all
a bad idea. I want to close by reading one
last anecdote from that New York Times article on Ron Meatball.
Ron's attempt to make an Army. A fifty one year
old former Marine captain who had retired from the military
with a disability and later joined the State Guard, also
clashed with instructors during initial boot camp last month, raising

(51:36):
concerns about the training. In an assault complaint filed with
the Clay County Sheriff's office, the man said he was
accused by the State Guard commander of being the leader
of the group that had been criticized in the organization
and its leadership. He was then forcibly pushed into a
van against his objections and driven to the command boost,
where he was fired and escorted off base. Of the
nine original State Guard recruiters and commanders who spent months

(51:58):
recruiting for the organization, fewer things the third remained. The
staff director, who had been a proposion of the less
militarized version of the group appointed in January, was removed
from his post just two days before the inaugural graduation.
The program's personnel director was fired this week.

Speaker 3 (52:12):
So good, sounds like it's going great over there in Florida.

Speaker 1 (52:17):
Sounds like Meatball Ron knows how to make an army.
I don't know, folks. That's that's my episode on on
the Ron De Santis campaign and now he's doing I
hope you all enjoyed this little update. We're done. Cool.

Speaker 2 (52:32):
Stay tuned for a vveck Ramaswani.

Speaker 1 (52:35):
Episode, yeah, which is just gonna be me making fart
noises into the microphone. You'll get everything you need on vveck.

Speaker 4 (52:43):
Here.

Speaker 1 (52:43):
Look, it's gonna be Trump unless he dies, in which case, boy,
that could be interesting.

Speaker 3 (52:49):
I mean, I just like Dessantis could have waited four
years and then he could have had the backing of
Trump to help him. I don't he's such a he's
such a weird little like power goblin because like, yeah.

Speaker 1 (53:02):
I mean, if he was still may try to do that.
Trump has gone back and forth on people in the past,
but it's such a weird call to like make this
doomed play at it, to build like this bad, like
you're gonna piss some people off. Yeah, why.

Speaker 2 (53:20):
Yeah? Anyway, I yeah, I remember us doing an episode
not so long ago about the Santis and being like, well,
he'll just wait four years until Trump's out to the
pit show. But no, he fucking defied our expectations by
torpedoing his own presidential chances.

Speaker 1 (53:33):
Yeah, and uh, That's why I love him.

Speaker 4 (53:41):
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