September 21, 2023 • 40 mins
Robert sits down with Joe Kassabian to discuss the invasion of Artsakh by Azerbaijan, and what might be the start of a new Armenian genocide.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, everybody, Robert Evans here. The episode you're about to
hear was recorded late last night at like two in
the morning, due to the time difference between me and Joe,
who is based in Armenia. As you may have heard,
Azerbijan launched another attack on the independent Armenian majority region
(00:20):
of Artsak, which is in territory that Azerbaijan claims. Since
we recorded this a couple hours after the Artzok defense
forces have surrendered, there's currently negotiations and something that's being
called a ceasefire, although there continue to be reports of
shelling and other violent acts by the Azeri military. It's
(00:41):
kind of unclear what is going to happen. Tens of
thousands of frightened Armenians have crowded the airport out of Artzok.
Pictures are pretty stunning and sobering, out of fears that
a genocide will be instituted against the Armenian populace in
that area. The episode You're about to hear is Joe
and I kind of talking earlier in the invasion, pretty
(01:04):
soon after it happened, going over some of the history,
what's going on now, fears for the future, so I
thought it was still valuable stuff, but I wanted to
let you know the situation has advanced since we recorded this,
as is often the case when you're talking about, you know,
unfolding events. So thank you. Hey, everyone, welcome to It
(01:30):
could happen here, a podcast about it happening here, And
unfortunately for our guest today it is again this is
not the first time that it has been happening where
this person happens to live. Joe Kasabian, Joe, Hey, how
you doing, Buddy?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Hey, Robert, it's I would like to say, it's good
to be back. But you know this tends to happen
a lot.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
We did you know in between the first time you
were or the last time you were on this show
and now you know, we had a surprise meeting in
Dublin that was a lovely time.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
That is true.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
That is true. Yeah, And now Joe, you uh, you
are a podcaster, a genocide expert and academic studying that
and also you know, the host of the Lions Led
by Donkeys podcast, which is a lovely podcast. And you
are based out of Yerevan, which is the capital of Armenia,
(02:32):
which is a country that is not yet being invaded
but is also in in another way, is being invaded
right now, right, Like it's a it's a complicated situation, basically,
the gist of it is, folks, if you're if you're
kind of tuning in, there is a there are a
(02:55):
number of different like little republics in in the Caucasus region,
and one of the like over the course of the
last like I don't know, a couple of thousand years,
there have been a lot of Armenian people in this
area that we call the Caucuses, right, and you know,
you have your you know, a couple of thousand years
(03:18):
of history, you know, around the eleventh century, you get,
you know, some claims start being made to this area
in what is now called Karbak Artsak, And yeah, now
you've got this kind of area that is an Armenian
majority region where the surrounding Azeri people argue that it
(03:40):
is their land, their territory, that they should be allowed
to take it. And there have been a series of
wars that have been fighting that have been going on
over this area since the fall of the Soviet Union.
And now as we are talking right now, Joe, you
and I, the Azari military has just launched a new
invasion with the prezum goal with the stated goal really
(04:01):
of retaking this entire region and potentially the goal of
engaging the Armenian military in a wider formal way. Right,
that's at least the way the Azaris have discussed it.
The Armenian military, the Armenian government has said like, this
is not you know, Artsak is not Armenia. This is
(04:22):
not like our troops and stuff on the ground here.
But the Azaris have basically just said, like, we are
disabling Armenian military equipment.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Yeah, it's it's you know, it goes back to December
of last year. I mean, obviously this goes back even
before then. But if you start talking about, you know, history,
people's eyes are going to glaze over. Yeah, this the
the war that was fought in twenty twenty obviously Azerbaijan one.
And ever since then, Carlok or Artsak has been cut
(04:53):
off from the Republic of Armenia through this area called
the Lashing Corridor. And yeah, according to the treaty it
was supposed to be maintained by Russian peacekeepers, but it
never was, and specifically, since December of twenty twenty two,
Karbak has been completely cut off by the Azarian Russian
military and is effectively being starved out. So it's been,
(05:16):
you know, quite a long time, and we knew, like
everybody knew the war was going to come again, but
we kind of assumed it was gonna be in like
twenty twenty five when the Russians are mandated to leave,
but sort yesterday, you know, it already yesterday.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
It seems like, I think it like the azeris invaded
right after about twenty three tons something like that of
essentially like bread was brought into like across the latchin corridor,
right like so literally like this, yeah, exactly, yeah, this
tiny amount of food makes it into this starving populace
(05:51):
and then the next day invasion starts.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Since December, they've done as much as they possibly could
to turn Karbak into what is effectively an open air
concert camp and the military operation. Now, what it.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
Is it to me is it's a.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Continuation of the twenty twenty war because they couldn't conquer
Sepanicrits in twenty twenty, which is the capital of Karabak,
due to external pressures as well as military capacity. Because
during twenty twenty, the Republic of Armenia, despite not legally
directly fighting the war was of course helping Karabak with volunteers, soldiers,
(06:33):
military supplies, everything. Sure this time they can't. It's completely
cut off, and that this is not a war of
any kind of near peer powers. The local Karabak defense force,
called the Artsak Defense Army, is a self defense group.
They have some heavy equipment, but the vast majority of
(06:53):
it was destroyed twenty twenty. So this is, you know,
effectively like a local gun club trying to fight.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Yeah, this army, this is more or less a militia
going up against I mean, like the Azaris. One of
their major suppliers of arms is Israel, Israel and Turkey. Yeah, yeah, Russia, Russia,
Russia as well too. Yeah, and Russia is selling obviously
to our media as well.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
They actually aren't that we've we've found out I believe
last year. The government isn't the best at transparency, I
feel like is the best way to word that. And
we have been paying Russia for weapons since twenty twenty.
They have not delivered a single bullet since the war.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Sorry I should have said Armenia is paying Russia for weapons.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Yeah, yeah, we're being fucked by Russia. But yeah, it's
as far as the state of Asari goals are, they're
they're very different. In twenty twenty, when the war ended,
they could frame it as a victory because they took
over all these areas that they lost during the first war.
Months about an area where about one hundred and twenty
thousand people live in Stepanikert and the general outskirts there.
(08:01):
But this time the messaging is much different. It is,
you know, the government must collapse. You know, they only
going tod like this is going quote unquote until the end,
until they see a white flag from stepanic Cart. So
this is because now if they don't do that, they
can't spin it as a victory, right right, And since December,
(08:25):
the Lashing corridor has been shut for everybody. People couldn't leave,
people who live in Karbak, who are in Armenia for
like school or whatever, couldn't go back. And now suddenly
yesterday when the war started again, they are saying there's
a humanitarian corridor through the through Lachen. So the goals
(08:46):
are very very clear here and we know from their
conduct in twenty twenty government propaganda, just the general attitude
of the Azari government towards Armenians, which is they don't
they can't exist here, like this is a liquidation of
the open air concentration camp that they've created.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
So, I mean, Joe, first off, I guess what I
want to ask is, like, what what is it like
in Yerevan right now? Because you know you are you
are not far from from where the fighting is continuing
at the moment, but obviously you are. Armenia is not
technically involved at this point, right Like, that's at least
(09:37):
according to the claims of the Armenian government. These aeries
alleged that they are striking Armenian military targets right now.
What is it like in Yerevan right now?
Speaker 2 (09:47):
I think everybody is. I mean, you can see it
on everybody's faces, like they just they want information, They
want to know what's going to happen next. There's a
lot of protests yesterday and into the night because the
Prime Minister came out and said, like, you know, we're
not going to get involved, and he's not exactly very popular,
despite the fact he kind of is our best option
(10:08):
at the moment, So there's a lot of you know,
rightful anger towards him, towards Russia towards the EU. You know,
you name it. Everybody's mad at everybody. So there was
different protests yesterday. There was you know, fuck Russia protest.
There was fuck Nikol Pashnian, who's our prime minister protest.
(10:28):
There was a combination of the two protests. They all
kind of met in the middle. There was some fighting
with the police. I heard reports that someone quite a
few people tried to break into government buildings. That all
seemed to have cooled off by that because I went
down to the area where there was protesting and I
didn't see any of that, but it seemed to have
(10:48):
also started up again after I left.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
But again, it's.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Only day one. People's anger is only going to get
worse as a situation in Karabak gets worse. Yeah, you know,
the fall of Karabak and Stapana karat If, And when
that occurs, I have a hard time believing that the
current government here in.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Armenia will survive.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
They'll either resign before stouts, you know, an unfortunate third
option might happen, especially with the messaging coming from Russia
where they're blaming Armenia and specifically the Prime Minister for
all of this. Because since September of last year, Armenia
has been doing decent diplomacy in turning towards the West.
(11:33):
There's American soldiers in the Republic of Armenia right now
for training. We've sent supplies to Ukraine. We've all but
left the CSTO, which is like Russia's shitty version of NATO.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Yeah, so this is not very functional, right.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Like yeah, yeah, I mean this is a fact. I mean,
this is a green lit punitive expedition on Russia's behalf effect.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Yeah, and this is you know a couple of things.
So like obviously the way in which the paper on
paper alliances here kind of like chart out is not
friendly to the sort of like sound bite media of
our day, right because Armenia on paper, Armenia's like big
(12:20):
supporter has been Russia recently, right.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
As well as Azerbaijan, like as well, before Russia invaded Ukraine,
they like cemented an alliance. But you know, because Azerbaijan
has been very overt, I guess you could say, and
their support for Ukraine, giving them money and you know,
supplies here and they're non military supplies but humanitarian supplies. Yeah,
this gets spun in the brain dead infosphere as it
(12:47):
being like another Russian ally, that being Armenia is being invaded,
or you know, people equate Klara Bak to Crimea and
Ukraine's war goals, and since Azerbaijan is a pr ally
of Ukraine and supplying the E with gas and supplying
E with Russian gas as well, they gets spun as
(13:09):
like people are cheering for Azerbaijan, which is is absolutely
baffling to me. Like it I wish I could say
I'm confused or surprised, but like when you treat war
like it's a team sport you want to play on
your favorite football jersey or whatever. Yeah, this is how
it goes. When you know, Karabak declared independence from Azerbaijan
(13:30):
during that the Azeri Soviet Socialist Republic when that was
legal to do. And the state that they have created
is one of the most free in the region, whereas Azerbaijan,
according to like the Freedom Index, is one point above
the Taliban controlled Afghan state at the moment. Yeah, so
(13:52):
like this this is not a play. This is not
like a liberation. A dictator cannot be a liberator.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
No, and a lot of what is happening and why
a zerbra Jan is engaging in aggression right now is
due to what's been happening to like the price of
oil and like what that's done to the Azari economy. Right,
Like this is a like I mean, it's it's it's
a pretty standard page in the the authoritarian playbook, right
of course.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
I mean they're a classic fascist dictatorship and so far
as you know, every problem in the state that they have,
of which they have many, because it's effectively a kleptocracy
built around a Petro Petro dictatorship, is caused by Armenians.
They're you know, every single anti Asari piece that gets
published in any media, and you can use the term
(14:37):
anti Asari to mean like literally anything is funded by
the like the Armenian lobbying group, which I mean any
Jewish conspiracy theory that we all know and hear about constantly,
and Azuerbaijan. You just replace Jewish people with Armenians, and
it's a it's functionally the same thing. So you know,
we're this global superpower with our tendrils and everything thing,
(15:00):
but also we're weak and pitiful and need to be destroyed.
It's it's same kind of messaging that we're used to
hearing for like classic fascist propaganda, and you know that
as far as like why they're doing it now is
because they've so ensconced themselves in the European good graces
(15:20):
and over the last little bit they know nobody could
nobody's going to stop them. The EU literally can't, and
the United States, I mean, they're an outside player when
it comes to European politics, at least internal politics, and
they are only loosely connected to Azerbaijehan. They do some
military funding, but it's mostly to do with's like these
(15:42):
weird ghosts of the early global War on Terror where
they're looking for friendly Muslim powers that would act as
counter terror forces. But the Azerbaijan secular this war has
nothing to do with us being Christian or them being Muslim. Yea,
though it does tend to be free frame that way
by the worst people imaginable.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Yeah, it's slots conveniently for a lot of people into
those But like this is I mean, again as I tried,
and you know, this is what we're kind of like
throwing this together in media res but like this is
we're talking about, like this is the result of a
very long period of conflict and movement of peoples in
(16:24):
a region where they have been for thousands and thousands
of years, right, Like that's like, it's not.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
I would say the current conflict is mostly rooted in
about the last thirty thirty five years, I mean the
ancient the ancient history gets thrown around a lot by
like propagandists, But this is a direct result of the
Soviet Union's policies. It has nothing to do with like,
you know, the thirteen hundreds.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Would you take it back though, to like like World
War One? Right where you've got You've got this like
very brief period where like Azerbaijan and Armenia and Georgia
all attempt to have this like almost little like Caucasus
you win, or EU of their own right, and then
they all get like gobbled up, you know, over the
course of the end of the war by by by
(17:12):
Turkey and then by Russia. Like it's this uh, like
that's kind of where it all results from. Right, That's
at least that's my understanding of it.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
If you want to go back that far, it has
more of a result of early Soviet policy and specifically
Joseph Stalin before he took over the Soviet Union. He
was ahead of like the the Office of like minorities. Effectively,
Yeah he he's a Georgian.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Yeah he's it's so is Barria.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
And he he redrew the borders to include what is
today Karabak within the borders of what effectively would become
the Azaria Soviet Socialist Republic. And during the entire period
of the Soviet Union, which you know, a lot of
people like to frame as the there's no problems in
the Soviet Union control these areas, which is magical thinking.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
There were protests by the Armenian populace, right.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
There was a lot of protests during the eighties. You
have what's called the Karabak movement wanted either a Karabak
to become its own Soviet Socialist Republic or b to
be given to the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and away
from these areas. And failing that, they declared independence, which
was within their rights under the Soviet constitution, which did exist,
(18:33):
I mean, it was largely fluid and completely ignored as
we see today, and that's what that triggered a lot
of different programs between Azaris against the Armenian population. Within
Azerbaijan and Armenians did the same thing here as well,
but that started the First War, which ended with Armenia
winning and Artsak becoming a de facto independent republic not
(18:57):
recognized by anybody to include Armenia.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
And it's I mean, it becomes at that point kind
of one of a series of sort of little frozen wars.
During this kind of like early nineties period where the
US was there was this there was some belief that
the US would act if like these conflicts got out
of hand. That was like often proved wrong, right, Like
(19:21):
the best comparison is effectively Kosovo. The only difference is
that because of geopolitics, you're getting involved in this war,
whether it be in the nineties, in twenty twenty or today,
is it's not geopolitically advantageous, Like telling Azerbaijan to go
(19:42):
fuck themselves by supporting art soccer Armenians doesn't help anybody geopolitically.
If it was Russia invading US, it would be raining
weapons from the West, But geopolitically doesn't benefit anybody to
support us. And you know, like there's this concept of
like ethics and morals from superpowers, whether it be you know,
(20:06):
the bastion of democracy in the United States, or this
concept of European ethics and morals in the EU, Like,
that's all propaganda of aprior where it's not real. If
your country is being helped by any of these countries,
it's because it benefits the countries that are helping you geopolitically.
It's not because of they they support whatever it is
(20:27):
that you're doing, you know that, And because the Republic
of Armenia itself is kind of in the situation as well.
But the people of art SoC are certainly in this situation.
And so like right now, I mean honestly, like what
what is there to do? But watch right like, is
(20:50):
there is there? Do you have any kind of like
hope for sort of positive productive action at this point
or are we kind of stuck in this We're going
to see what the next chapter of this conflict looks like,
you know, as it kind of rolls out here.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Well, there's two options, really stop it through military force
or let the largest genocide of the twenty first century
go unimpeded. Right because the reason why our Prime Minister
said that the Republic of Armenia is not going to
get involved is because it literally cannot. You know, we
(21:28):
have Turkey on one border that will almost certainly be
involved if we do. These areas also have guns pointed
at our southern border, which they have said for years
now they want to conquer. The Armenian military is not
a superpower by any stretch of the imagination, and since
we are not connected to Artsock in any feasible way,
(21:52):
it would require a massive counter offensive to just relieve
Stapanak Heart from the current siege. Right There's a reason
why it didn't happen when they're being starved. So Armenia
lacks the ability to stop this. However, there's multiple countries
in the world, mostly France in the United States, that
could end this in five seconds if they truly wanted to.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Yeah, you mentioned at the start that there are US
troops who are in Armenia right now, and I'm my
thoughts are drawn back to in twenty nineteen when Turkey
carried out an expanded invasion of some of the regions
in northeast Syria that composed Rejava, and you know US
peacekeepers pulled out previous to that. Now, the US troops
(22:35):
who were in Armenia were training that were not there
as peacekeepers.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
But right have they have no mandate to do anything,
and there's only like two hundred of them from some
national Guard unit. It's not like it's a you know,
a brigade combat team, and pressure is whatever you want
to call them are not simply not going to happen.
The European Union is not going to sanction Azerbaijan. They
rely on their oil and Azerbaijan has only become more
powerful in this petro diplomacy since Russia invaded Ukraine. The
(23:02):
United States has no functional sanctioning powers over Azerbaijan that
could really affect them. And not to mention, as we've
seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is sanctions don't
stop wars.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Yeah, now, I mean they never had. Like again, this
is something that left is supposed to know right after,
like what happened with Iraq and the nineties, but like
they don't, they don't do anything Like no, of course.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Like if the only thing that stops a genocide is
military force, and there's never been a genocide that has
not ended from military from one actor or another.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
I might push even a little bit to say that
like one thing that in this case I think could
potentially at least reduce the risk of certain kinds of genocide.
Is like keeping US troops in the area, not even
as like a viable combat force, but as a like
all right, a zebra jen if you if you are
going to like disrupt the territorial integrity of the actual
(23:59):
Armenian state, then you know, we've got people who are
in country and and so you'll have to you'll have
to kill them, you know.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
That's That's somethings that probable have been arguing for a
long time now, not necessarily Americans exactly, but some kind
of international peacekeeping mission, because we all knew that what
Russia was doing, like this war benefits them as the
previous instability in the region benefits them because it allows
them to have their hooks into Armenia. Which is why
(24:29):
we're kind of worried of what happens next here because
if Azerbaijean does complete the conquest of stapanic Herit, which
unless someone gets involved, they will, they need to be
like I need to be practical about these things, and
once that happens, Russia won't have the sort of damicles
(24:50):
hanging over the Republic of Armenia's head anymore. So it
does make it does make us wonder like, and everybody
is very very stupid if they I think Azerbaijan stops
with Artsock right that in September of last year when
I was on your show, they were invading the Republic
of Armenia. They were not invading Karabaker Arts. They were
(25:10):
invading the Republic of Armenia. And their stated goals have
not changed. The only thing that would happen is that
this thorn in their side over the last thirty years
would not be there anymore. They would have no impediments
at all within what is considered their own borders. They
could focus everything on the Republic of Armenia. So people
(25:32):
who believe that this ends in Stapanic heart like, You'll
only have to go back to this time last year
to see that is not the case. The only thing
that's going to happen is maybe they'll take a little
bit of time. The war is coming to Armenia. This
massacre will come across our borders. It's only a matter
of is it one year, two years, three years that
(25:53):
that's the only thing. So without some kind of immediate intervention,
this slaughter will continue until they are defeated that you
don't negotiate with people who want to murder you. It's impossible, No,
you can't. And it's it's also this is a very
dangerous situation in part because like the reason why Armenia
(26:16):
is acting now, right, and part is because you know,
they have been watching and I think like keying and
like sort of editing their behavior as a result of
how the Russian campaign in Ukraine has gone.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Right.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Yeah, they definitely see it as a way to get
away from Russia. I mean, like, yeah, like any small
state in Russia's sphere is doing right now, with the
exception of Georgia, who's kind of doing the opposite.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Yeah, and they there is this, I mean, one of
the things that is really unsettling right now is there
is this There has been kind of a freeze and
a number of conflicts around the world that we have
seen thawing out for the last really the last five
six years. It's been particularly like accelerating this kind kind
of like thaw and a bunch of these old frozen conflicts.
(27:03):
And part of why is that there's this understanding by
a lot of these regional powers that like, well, if
I kicked the fucking door and nobody's coming.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
After me, right, and Azerbaijean understands that to a certain extent,
which is why they acted the way they acted last
year in September. I mean, the CSTO is a joke,
but it does have a mutual defense clause, just like
NATO does. So an invasion of our borders should have
triggered it, and that was if people had some kind
(27:32):
of not sure if Russia could commit to other things.
That's meanted it for a lot of people. It's sumitted it.
For Armenia specifically, I mean, we're still technically legal members
of that alliance, but we have no representation in anymore.
We don't take part in trainings, we don't go to meetings.
We're functionally out of it, and we certainly will be
after this, I believe. But I mean the as an
(27:57):
example of how you can't really negotiate with someone with
this kind of ideology in so far as from this position,
like I'm not saying that like this only ends with
international peacekeepers hoisting a flag over Blakhu with this kind
of power discrepancy that the Azaria government has said that
they will negotiate with the government in Stepanekert in Karabak,
(28:21):
once they dissolve and lay down all their weapons. So
once you completely disarm and get rid of all of
the ways you can defend yourself from the obvious slaughter
that's coming your way, then we'll talk. Is that really
a way? Is that a way of any negotiations could
ever happen? Like being realistic, of course it's not. The
(28:42):
government of kara Bak is the only thing. The government
of Karabak and the small local self defense force is
the only negotiating like little crumb that they have because
it's stopping them from being murdered. And for people who
think I'm being we like I'm overreacting or something, look
(29:03):
at how they treated that. Any Armenian civilians that fell
into their hands into the twenty twenty war. They cut
off their ears, they cut off their fingers, they cut
off their noses, They fucking behead of them. It was
like watching Isis videos. But they're wearing multiicam and wearing
fast helmets and they publish them proudly on the internet.
They're not ashamed of this. You can only imagine what
(29:23):
happens when a city of one hundred thousand people falls
into their hands. Yeah, and that is war song in the
nineteen forties.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
Something around like, Yeah, about one hundred, one hundred and
twenty thousand people who are who are still there.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Our media cannot solve this problem. We do not have
the power to force them to the negotiation table to
guarantee the rights of existence for people where they live.
The countries that do are now friends with the country
that is doing it, so it requires some actual diplomatic spine.
(29:57):
And the thing is, you know, the joke is, every
time someone is deeply concerned about something, you take a
drink and then you don't fucking alcoholism, but you can't say,
you know, we call for an immediate cease of the
military offensive without an or or like or what or
fucking what? Like what are you doing? Like? You can't
(30:19):
use strong words to stop a fucking ballistic missile. Yeah,
there needs to be an ore.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
We're staring at about a century since we had a
series of conflicts, many of which were based around different
sort of like regional powers scapegoating and then carrying out
acts of tremendous violence against groups of people, including specifically
the Armenians.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
Like a tale as old as time. It's being treated
as an anti terror operation. And you can go back
to nineteen thirteen during the GENUSI, the first genocide, and
it's the same exact excuse the Ottoman Empire used well.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
And it's being treated you know, that's what how the
Azaris are excusing it. But over here, like when you're
talking about like US politics, about Western politics, it's it's
it's a thing that's happening over there, right, Like it's
a couple of countries that most people don't know very
much about, and like what is what is our Why
are we involved in this? And it's like, well, because
(31:18):
this is the thing that we said, like after one
hundred something million people died, the idea that we all
kind of came together with was, well, we should probably
stop folks from doing some of the things that led
to all of those terrible wars.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
And we just hear people frame it as, oh, those
people have just been fighting forever. Yeah, no, we haven't.
It's been within my lifetime. Like I'm thirty five years old.
This war is not older than i am.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Yeah, Like there was not always mass violence between like
the people in this region, right, Like Azaries and Armenians
have not been killing each other over art Soak for
thousands of years, right like that.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
There's Armenians, and yeah, they used to live next to
one another. We're not intractable millennia long enemy. But this
isn't one of those conflicts that you I mean, you
shouldn't do that with any conflict because it's a scapegoat
to get you to stop caring and educating yourself about it.
But specifically in the context of this episode, certainly not
(32:26):
this conflict. This conflict involves very recent events. Yeah, and
it's it's tied to major geopolitical events happening in the
world right now that whatever country that you're living in
and listening to, your country is involved in.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
And it's I mean, like the the the actual as
far as I can see that, the actual like realistic
solution here because this is not a case, right, I
don't think like shipping a bunch of fucking weapons is
a realistic thing to hope for. Like the actual realistic
case for stopping this is putting people in the country
(33:02):
that uh provide some sort of like barrier to a
Zeri aggression, right, Like that's like it's taking action.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
We need the thing that we did for Kosovo yes, yes,
that's exactly what we need without without any kind of
negotiations or debates like that is the only thing that
will stop what is coming. It's not an if like
and this is coming.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
And hey online left people, you know, the Azaris are
buy in Israeli arms, Like this is a situation in which,
like we're not talking about we don't need we don't
need guys kicking indoors. We literally need dudes standing around
to create a barrier by the sheer political fact of
(33:47):
their existence, right, That's.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
All it takes. And not to mention if you're trying
to frame this in like an anti imperialist context or whatever,
Agema Jhon is literally a fascist fucking dictatorship like the Yeah,
and Armenia. We have our problems, Karabak, they have their problems,
you know, but they're functioning representative democracies and with people
(34:10):
in land that they've lived on. It's I mean, there
are other people who are indigenous to that land as well,
but it's also theirs. It's if you want to think
of it in that way, which I don't really like
to do because it's it's dirt. But the real issue
here is the people. The people's lives are like, it
doesn't fucking matter who controls to PANICRT at the end
(34:32):
of the day, if people are allowed to live there
and live their lives in dignity in the way that
they choose to live them. Yeah, but that's not going
to happen if the fascist dictatorship's genocidal armies come storming through, right.
It's it's simply impossible. And that's one of the main
reasons why Kak Karabak Armenians and the Armenian State as
(34:54):
well has continuously said that Karabak can't exist within the
frameworks of the Azaria Reports public because the Azari Republic
is demonstrously uh anti Armenian. Like for instance, if you
have an Armenian surname like I do, you can't even
go there. It doesn't even matter if you've even been
to this country or not. Simply existing is enough to
(35:16):
be denied entry. It's it's not a place. I mean,
if you want to see how they'll be treated, look
how they treat their own fucking people. Yeah, it's like
asking anyone to be liberated by the fucking forces of
North Korea or Saudi Arabia or something. It's obscene, it's absurd.
The only thing that like and I'm not saying I
(35:37):
support the government in Armenia as any as anybody who
knows me. I don't support any government. But the only
constant track they've had is we support their right for
self determination, as anybody should. And they voted in the
eighties to be on their own, not to be part
of Armenia, not to be part of ANDWJAN, but to
(35:57):
be the republic of art SoC because they're the only
people who care about their own rights, their own degnity,
and their own right to existence. That's all anybody should
ever defend is people's rights to do that. Yeah, And
ever since, they've made a functioning state with free and
fair elections, ministries that handle these things, ministries of health,
ministries of defense, ministries of education. It's a functioning republic.
(36:23):
It's not some statelet that barely functions. And the powers
invading it don't only mean to destroy those the separatist power,
they mean to destroy the people that live there. There's
no room for them to exist in this country.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
So, Joe, what do you expect us to see coming
in the next couple of days here? As you know,
we're about twenty four hours in right now to the
renewed a Zeri attack on art Sock, Like, what is
your kind of expectation for what happens next?
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Well, the art Sock Defense Army is doing their best. Yeah,
I mean, obviously they're fighting as hard as they possibly can. However,
without immediate international intervention in some capacity, I mean physical intervention,
a you will stop or this will occur type situation,
it's only a matter of time until it ends.
Speaker 1 (37:30):
Yeah, Yeah, I think that's.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
And to quote the former head of Doctors without Borders,
you cannot stop a genocide with doctors. Yeah, there's only
one way to stop it. And you know, like I've
said a million times before, I believe before on your show, Yep,
the only thing that's allowing this to go on is
the unwillingness of literally anybody to get involved. And there's
(37:56):
a couple of quotes about that, Yeah, exactly, it's it's
not a new concept.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Yeah. And gide studies.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
As someone who studies war, studies genocide and has fought
in war. War is fucking awful and I don't want
it for anybody. I don't want a Zari kids to
conscripts to be fucking dying for this. I don't want
Armenians to be dying for this. But the only thing
that's going to stop it is someone who is not Armenian,
not as AARI, and certainly not fucking Russian, to say
stop or we will fucking stop it.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
Yep. Yeah, I think that's I think that's as uh
as good a point to close on as there is
as we're gonna find at least. Joe, do you have
anything else you wanted to kind of like bring up
before we roll out here? I would? I would.
Speaker 2 (38:47):
This is normally where I would say you could support
the people involved in this in this way, but unfortunately,
there's they're under siege, they're surrounded, nothing can get to them.
There's I got nothing, man.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Yeah, I mean that that is the reality, right, It's
like there's nowhere to send money, there's nothing to like,
and to be quite frank, I mean, I think people
should be harassing their their representatives over this. But you know,
I'm not overly optimistic. Yeah, the Biden administration has been
making noises, you know, but but I you know, I
(39:22):
have not seen evidence that they're going to do more
than that yet.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
So I will say if the United States gets involved
and they really want to turn Armenia to the West,
which they absolutely should. There's no better time, like now,
this is the chance to do it. You want to
show that, like the West is the way for Armenians
and pull them completely away from Russia because everybody wants
to get the fuck away from Russia. Like, yeah, there's
(39:46):
thousands of people marching down the street literally saying fuck
Russia yesterday. But you need to give them a path
to do so, and this is the way to do it.
Speaker 1 (39:56):
Yeah. Well, shit, thanks Joe. Sorry, sorry we keep having
you on the show in this uh this situation. I
uh well, we'll come on and talk about something. I
don't know. We probably won't.
Speaker 2 (40:12):
Neither of our shows that we're talking about.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Other of our shows talk about anything lighthearted. Check out
Joe's show Lions Led by Donkeys, The Lions Lit by
Donkeys podcast, Great Military History podcast. Joe, thank you for
being on, and please, I don't know, uh, good luck.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
Rob It could.
Speaker 3 (40:38):
Happen here as a production of cool Zone Media. For
more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool
Zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio, app,
Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts, you can
find sources for It could happen here, Updated monthly at
cool zonemedia dot com, slash sources. Thanks for listening.
Hey, everybody, Robert Evans here. The episode you're about to
hear was recorded late last night at like two in
the morning, due to the time difference between me and Joe,
who is based in Armenia. As you may have heard,
Azerbijan launched another attack on the independent Armenian majority region
(00:20):
of Artsak, which is in territory that Azerbaijan claims. Since
we recorded this a couple hours after the Artzok defense
forces have surrendered, there's currently negotiations and something that's being
called a ceasefire, although there continue to be reports of
shelling and other violent acts by the Azeri military. It's
(00:41):
kind of unclear what is going to happen. Tens of
thousands of frightened Armenians have crowded the airport out of Artzok.
Pictures are pretty stunning and sobering, out of fears that
a genocide will be instituted against the Armenian populace in
that area. The episode You're about to hear is Joe
and I kind of talking earlier in the invasion, pretty
(01:04):
soon after it happened, going over some of the history,
what's going on now, fears for the future, so I
thought it was still valuable stuff, but I wanted to
let you know the situation has advanced since we recorded this,
as is often the case when you're talking about, you know,
unfolding events. So thank you. Hey, everyone, welcome to It
(01:30):
could happen here, a podcast about it happening here, And
unfortunately for our guest today it is again this is
not the first time that it has been happening where
this person happens to live. Joe Kasabian, Joe, Hey, how
you doing, Buddy?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Hey, Robert, it's I would like to say, it's good
to be back. But you know this tends to happen
a lot.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
We did you know in between the first time you
were or the last time you were on this show
and now you know, we had a surprise meeting in
Dublin that was a lovely time.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
That is true.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
That is true. Yeah, And now Joe, you uh, you
are a podcaster, a genocide expert and academic studying that
and also you know, the host of the Lions Led
by Donkeys podcast, which is a lovely podcast. And you
are based out of Yerevan, which is the capital of Armenia,
(02:32):
which is a country that is not yet being invaded
but is also in in another way, is being invaded
right now, right, Like it's a it's a complicated situation, basically,
the gist of it is, folks, if you're if you're
kind of tuning in, there is a there are a
(02:55):
number of different like little republics in in the Caucasus region,
and one of the like over the course of the
last like I don't know, a couple of thousand years,
there have been a lot of Armenian people in this
area that we call the Caucuses, right, and you know,
you have your you know, a couple of thousand years
(03:18):
of history, you know, around the eleventh century, you get,
you know, some claims start being made to this area
in what is now called Karbak Artsak, And yeah, now
you've got this kind of area that is an Armenian
majority region where the surrounding Azeri people argue that it
(03:40):
is their land, their territory, that they should be allowed
to take it. And there have been a series of
wars that have been fighting that have been going on
over this area since the fall of the Soviet Union.
And now as we are talking right now, Joe, you
and I, the Azari military has just launched a new
invasion with the prezum goal with the stated goal really
(04:01):
of retaking this entire region and potentially the goal of
engaging the Armenian military in a wider formal way. Right,
that's at least the way the Azaris have discussed it.
The Armenian military, the Armenian government has said like, this
is not you know, Artsak is not Armenia. This is
(04:22):
not like our troops and stuff on the ground here.
But the Azaris have basically just said, like, we are
disabling Armenian military equipment.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Yeah, it's it's you know, it goes back to December
of last year. I mean, obviously this goes back even
before then. But if you start talking about, you know, history,
people's eyes are going to glaze over. Yeah, this the
the war that was fought in twenty twenty obviously Azerbaijan one.
And ever since then, Carlok or Artsak has been cut
(04:53):
off from the Republic of Armenia through this area called
the Lashing Corridor. And yeah, according to the treaty it
was supposed to be maintained by Russian peacekeepers, but it
never was, and specifically, since December of twenty twenty two,
Karbak has been completely cut off by the Azarian Russian
military and is effectively being starved out. So it's been,
(05:16):
you know, quite a long time, and we knew, like
everybody knew the war was going to come again, but
we kind of assumed it was gonna be in like
twenty twenty five when the Russians are mandated to leave,
but sort yesterday, you know, it already yesterday.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
It seems like, I think it like the azeris invaded
right after about twenty three tons something like that of
essentially like bread was brought into like across the latchin corridor,
right like so literally like this, yeah, exactly, yeah, this
tiny amount of food makes it into this starving populace
(05:51):
and then the next day invasion starts.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Since December, they've done as much as they possibly could
to turn Karbak into what is effectively an open air
concert camp and the military operation. Now, what it.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
Is it to me is it's a.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Continuation of the twenty twenty war because they couldn't conquer
Sepanicrits in twenty twenty, which is the capital of Karabak,
due to external pressures as well as military capacity. Because
during twenty twenty, the Republic of Armenia, despite not legally
directly fighting the war was of course helping Karabak with volunteers, soldiers,
(06:33):
military supplies, everything. Sure this time they can't. It's completely
cut off, and that this is not a war of
any kind of near peer powers. The local Karabak defense force,
called the Artsak Defense Army, is a self defense group.
They have some heavy equipment, but the vast majority of
(06:53):
it was destroyed twenty twenty. So this is, you know,
effectively like a local gun club trying to fight.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Yeah, this army, this is more or less a militia
going up against I mean, like the Azaris. One of
their major suppliers of arms is Israel, Israel and Turkey. Yeah, yeah, Russia, Russia,
Russia as well too. Yeah, and Russia is selling obviously
to our media as well.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
They actually aren't that we've we've found out I believe
last year. The government isn't the best at transparency, I
feel like is the best way to word that. And
we have been paying Russia for weapons since twenty twenty.
They have not delivered a single bullet since the war.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Sorry I should have said Armenia is paying Russia for weapons.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Yeah, yeah, we're being fucked by Russia. But yeah, it's
as far as the state of Asari goals are, they're
they're very different. In twenty twenty, when the war ended,
they could frame it as a victory because they took
over all these areas that they lost during the first war.
Months about an area where about one hundred and twenty
thousand people live in Stepanikert and the general outskirts there.
(08:01):
But this time the messaging is much different. It is,
you know, the government must collapse. You know, they only
going tod like this is going quote unquote until the end,
until they see a white flag from stepanic Cart. So
this is because now if they don't do that, they
can't spin it as a victory, right right, And since December,
(08:25):
the Lashing corridor has been shut for everybody. People couldn't leave,
people who live in Karbak, who are in Armenia for
like school or whatever, couldn't go back. And now suddenly
yesterday when the war started again, they are saying there's
a humanitarian corridor through the through Lachen. So the goals
(08:46):
are very very clear here and we know from their
conduct in twenty twenty government propaganda, just the general attitude
of the Azari government towards Armenians, which is they don't
they can't exist here, like this is a liquidation of
the open air concentration camp that they've created.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
So, I mean, Joe, first off, I guess what I
want to ask is, like, what what is it like
in Yerevan right now? Because you know you are you
are not far from from where the fighting is continuing
at the moment, but obviously you are. Armenia is not
technically involved at this point, right Like, that's at least
(09:37):
according to the claims of the Armenian government. These aeries
alleged that they are striking Armenian military targets right now.
What is it like in Yerevan right now?
Speaker 2 (09:47):
I think everybody is. I mean, you can see it
on everybody's faces, like they just they want information, They
want to know what's going to happen next. There's a
lot of protests yesterday and into the night because the
Prime Minister came out and said, like, you know, we're
not going to get involved, and he's not exactly very popular,
despite the fact he kind of is our best option
(10:08):
at the moment, So there's a lot of you know,
rightful anger towards him, towards Russia towards the EU. You know,
you name it. Everybody's mad at everybody. So there was
different protests yesterday. There was you know, fuck Russia protest.
There was fuck Nikol Pashnian, who's our prime minister protest.
(10:28):
There was a combination of the two protests. They all
kind of met in the middle. There was some fighting
with the police. I heard reports that someone quite a
few people tried to break into government buildings. That all
seemed to have cooled off by that because I went
down to the area where there was protesting and I
didn't see any of that, but it seemed to have
(10:48):
also started up again after I left.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
But again, it's.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Only day one. People's anger is only going to get
worse as a situation in Karabak gets worse. Yeah, you know,
the fall of Karabak and Stapana karat If, And when
that occurs, I have a hard time believing that the
current government here in.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Armenia will survive.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
They'll either resign before stouts, you know, an unfortunate third
option might happen, especially with the messaging coming from Russia
where they're blaming Armenia and specifically the Prime Minister for
all of this. Because since September of last year, Armenia
has been doing decent diplomacy in turning towards the West.
(11:33):
There's American soldiers in the Republic of Armenia right now
for training. We've sent supplies to Ukraine. We've all but
left the CSTO, which is like Russia's shitty version of NATO.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Yeah, so this is not very functional, right.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Like yeah, yeah, I mean this is a fact. I mean,
this is a green lit punitive expedition on Russia's behalf effect.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Yeah, and this is you know a couple of things.
So like obviously the way in which the paper on
paper alliances here kind of like chart out is not
friendly to the sort of like sound bite media of
our day, right because Armenia on paper, Armenia's like big
(12:20):
supporter has been Russia recently, right.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
As well as Azerbaijan, like as well, before Russia invaded Ukraine,
they like cemented an alliance. But you know, because Azerbaijan
has been very overt, I guess you could say, and
their support for Ukraine, giving them money and you know,
supplies here and they're non military supplies but humanitarian supplies. Yeah,
this gets spun in the brain dead infosphere as it
(12:47):
being like another Russian ally, that being Armenia is being invaded,
or you know, people equate Klara Bak to Crimea and
Ukraine's war goals, and since Azerbaijan is a pr ally
of Ukraine and supplying the E with gas and supplying
E with Russian gas as well, they gets spun as
(13:09):
like people are cheering for Azerbaijan, which is is absolutely
baffling to me. Like it I wish I could say
I'm confused or surprised, but like when you treat war
like it's a team sport you want to play on
your favorite football jersey or whatever. Yeah, this is how
it goes. When you know, Karabak declared independence from Azerbaijan
(13:30):
during that the Azeri Soviet Socialist Republic when that was
legal to do. And the state that they have created
is one of the most free in the region, whereas Azerbaijan,
according to like the Freedom Index, is one point above
the Taliban controlled Afghan state at the moment. Yeah, so
(13:52):
like this this is not a play. This is not
like a liberation. A dictator cannot be a liberator.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
No, and a lot of what is happening and why
a zerbra Jan is engaging in aggression right now is
due to what's been happening to like the price of
oil and like what that's done to the Azari economy. Right,
Like this is a like I mean, it's it's it's
a pretty standard page in the the authoritarian playbook, right
of course.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
I mean they're a classic fascist dictatorship and so far
as you know, every problem in the state that they have,
of which they have many, because it's effectively a kleptocracy
built around a Petro Petro dictatorship, is caused by Armenians.
They're you know, every single anti Asari piece that gets
published in any media, and you can use the term
(14:37):
anti Asari to mean like literally anything is funded by
the like the Armenian lobbying group, which I mean any
Jewish conspiracy theory that we all know and hear about constantly,
and Azuerbaijan. You just replace Jewish people with Armenians, and
it's a it's functionally the same thing. So you know,
we're this global superpower with our tendrils and everything thing,
(15:00):
but also we're weak and pitiful and need to be destroyed.
It's it's same kind of messaging that we're used to
hearing for like classic fascist propaganda, and you know that
as far as like why they're doing it now is
because they've so ensconced themselves in the European good graces
(15:20):
and over the last little bit they know nobody could
nobody's going to stop them. The EU literally can't, and
the United States, I mean, they're an outside player when
it comes to European politics, at least internal politics, and
they are only loosely connected to Azerbaijehan. They do some
military funding, but it's mostly to do with's like these
(15:42):
weird ghosts of the early global War on Terror where
they're looking for friendly Muslim powers that would act as
counter terror forces. But the Azerbaijan secular this war has
nothing to do with us being Christian or them being Muslim. Yea,
though it does tend to be free frame that way
by the worst people imaginable.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Yeah, it's slots conveniently for a lot of people into
those But like this is I mean, again as I tried,
and you know, this is what we're kind of like
throwing this together in media res but like this is
we're talking about, like this is the result of a
very long period of conflict and movement of peoples in
(16:24):
a region where they have been for thousands and thousands
of years, right, Like that's like, it's not.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
I would say the current conflict is mostly rooted in
about the last thirty thirty five years, I mean the
ancient the ancient history gets thrown around a lot by
like propagandists, But this is a direct result of the
Soviet Union's policies. It has nothing to do with like,
you know, the thirteen hundreds.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Would you take it back though, to like like World
War One? Right where you've got You've got this like
very brief period where like Azerbaijan and Armenia and Georgia
all attempt to have this like almost little like Caucasus
you win, or EU of their own right, and then
they all get like gobbled up, you know, over the
course of the end of the war by by by
(17:12):
Turkey and then by Russia. Like it's this uh, like
that's kind of where it all results from. Right, That's
at least that's my understanding of it.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
If you want to go back that far, it has
more of a result of early Soviet policy and specifically
Joseph Stalin before he took over the Soviet Union. He
was ahead of like the the Office of like minorities. Effectively,
Yeah he he's a Georgian.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Yeah he's it's so is Barria.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
And he he redrew the borders to include what is
today Karabak within the borders of what effectively would become
the Azaria Soviet Socialist Republic. And during the entire period
of the Soviet Union, which you know, a lot of
people like to frame as the there's no problems in
the Soviet Union control these areas, which is magical thinking.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
There were protests by the Armenian populace, right.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
There was a lot of protests during the eighties. You
have what's called the Karabak movement wanted either a Karabak
to become its own Soviet Socialist Republic or b to
be given to the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and away
from these areas. And failing that, they declared independence, which
was within their rights under the Soviet constitution, which did exist,
(18:33):
I mean, it was largely fluid and completely ignored as
we see today, and that's what that triggered a lot
of different programs between Azaris against the Armenian population. Within
Azerbaijan and Armenians did the same thing here as well,
but that started the First War, which ended with Armenia
winning and Artsak becoming a de facto independent republic not
(18:57):
recognized by anybody to include Armenia.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
And it's I mean, it becomes at that point kind
of one of a series of sort of little frozen wars.
During this kind of like early nineties period where the
US was there was this there was some belief that
the US would act if like these conflicts got out
of hand. That was like often proved wrong, right, Like
(19:21):
the best comparison is effectively Kosovo. The only difference is
that because of geopolitics, you're getting involved in this war,
whether it be in the nineties, in twenty twenty or today,
is it's not geopolitically advantageous, Like telling Azerbaijan to go
(19:42):
fuck themselves by supporting art soccer Armenians doesn't help anybody geopolitically.
If it was Russia invading US, it would be raining
weapons from the West, But geopolitically doesn't benefit anybody to
support us. And you know, like there's this concept of
like ethics and morals from superpowers, whether it be you know,
(20:06):
the bastion of democracy in the United States, or this
concept of European ethics and morals in the EU, Like,
that's all propaganda of aprior where it's not real. If
your country is being helped by any of these countries,
it's because it benefits the countries that are helping you geopolitically.
It's not because of they they support whatever it is
(20:27):
that you're doing, you know that, And because the Republic
of Armenia itself is kind of in the situation as well.
But the people of art SoC are certainly in this situation.
And so like right now, I mean honestly, like what
what is there to do? But watch right like, is
(20:50):
there is there? Do you have any kind of like
hope for sort of positive productive action at this point
or are we kind of stuck in this We're going
to see what the next chapter of this conflict looks like,
you know, as it kind of rolls out here.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Well, there's two options, really stop it through military force
or let the largest genocide of the twenty first century
go unimpeded. Right because the reason why our Prime Minister
said that the Republic of Armenia is not going to
get involved is because it literally cannot. You know, we
(21:28):
have Turkey on one border that will almost certainly be
involved if we do. These areas also have guns pointed
at our southern border, which they have said for years
now they want to conquer. The Armenian military is not
a superpower by any stretch of the imagination, and since
we are not connected to Artsock in any feasible way,
(21:52):
it would require a massive counter offensive to just relieve
Stapanak Heart from the current siege. Right There's a reason
why it didn't happen when they're being starved. So Armenia
lacks the ability to stop this. However, there's multiple countries
in the world, mostly France in the United States, that
could end this in five seconds if they truly wanted to.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Yeah, you mentioned at the start that there are US
troops who are in Armenia right now, and I'm my
thoughts are drawn back to in twenty nineteen when Turkey
carried out an expanded invasion of some of the regions
in northeast Syria that composed Rejava, and you know US
peacekeepers pulled out previous to that. Now, the US troops
(22:35):
who were in Armenia were training that were not there
as peacekeepers.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
But right have they have no mandate to do anything,
and there's only like two hundred of them from some
national Guard unit. It's not like it's a you know,
a brigade combat team, and pressure is whatever you want
to call them are not simply not going to happen.
The European Union is not going to sanction Azerbaijan. They
rely on their oil and Azerbaijan has only become more
powerful in this petro diplomacy since Russia invaded Ukraine. The
(23:02):
United States has no functional sanctioning powers over Azerbaijan that
could really affect them. And not to mention, as we've
seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is sanctions don't
stop wars.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Yeah, now, I mean they never had. Like again, this
is something that left is supposed to know right after,
like what happened with Iraq and the nineties, but like
they don't, they don't do anything Like no, of course.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Like if the only thing that stops a genocide is
military force, and there's never been a genocide that has
not ended from military from one actor or another.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
I might push even a little bit to say that
like one thing that in this case I think could
potentially at least reduce the risk of certain kinds of genocide.
Is like keeping US troops in the area, not even
as like a viable combat force, but as a like
all right, a zebra jen if you if you are
going to like disrupt the territorial integrity of the actual
(23:59):
Armenian state, then you know, we've got people who are
in country and and so you'll have to you'll have
to kill them, you know.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
That's That's somethings that probable have been arguing for a
long time now, not necessarily Americans exactly, but some kind
of international peacekeeping mission, because we all knew that what
Russia was doing, like this war benefits them as the
previous instability in the region benefits them because it allows
them to have their hooks into Armenia. Which is why
(24:29):
we're kind of worried of what happens next here because
if Azerbaijean does complete the conquest of stapanic Herit, which
unless someone gets involved, they will, they need to be
like I need to be practical about these things, and
once that happens, Russia won't have the sort of damicles
(24:50):
hanging over the Republic of Armenia's head anymore. So it
does make it does make us wonder like, and everybody
is very very stupid if they I think Azerbaijan stops
with Artsock right that in September of last year when
I was on your show, they were invading the Republic
of Armenia. They were not invading Karabaker Arts. They were
(25:10):
invading the Republic of Armenia. And their stated goals have
not changed. The only thing that would happen is that
this thorn in their side over the last thirty years
would not be there anymore. They would have no impediments
at all within what is considered their own borders. They
could focus everything on the Republic of Armenia. So people
(25:32):
who believe that this ends in Stapanic heart like, You'll
only have to go back to this time last year
to see that is not the case. The only thing
that's going to happen is maybe they'll take a little
bit of time. The war is coming to Armenia. This
massacre will come across our borders. It's only a matter
of is it one year, two years, three years that
(25:53):
that's the only thing. So without some kind of immediate intervention,
this slaughter will continue until they are defeated that you
don't negotiate with people who want to murder you. It's impossible, No,
you can't. And it's it's also this is a very
dangerous situation in part because like the reason why Armenia
(26:16):
is acting now, right, and part is because you know,
they have been watching and I think like keying and
like sort of editing their behavior as a result of
how the Russian campaign in Ukraine has gone.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Right.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Yeah, they definitely see it as a way to get
away from Russia. I mean, like, yeah, like any small
state in Russia's sphere is doing right now, with the
exception of Georgia, who's kind of doing the opposite.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Yeah, and they there is this, I mean, one of
the things that is really unsettling right now is there
is this There has been kind of a freeze and
a number of conflicts around the world that we have
seen thawing out for the last really the last five
six years. It's been particularly like accelerating this kind kind
of like thaw and a bunch of these old frozen conflicts.
(27:03):
And part of why is that there's this understanding by
a lot of these regional powers that like, well, if
I kicked the fucking door and nobody's coming.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
After me, right, and Azerbaijean understands that to a certain extent,
which is why they acted the way they acted last
year in September. I mean, the CSTO is a joke,
but it does have a mutual defense clause, just like
NATO does. So an invasion of our borders should have
triggered it, and that was if people had some kind
(27:32):
of not sure if Russia could commit to other things.
That's meanted it for a lot of people. It's sumitted it.
For Armenia specifically, I mean, we're still technically legal members
of that alliance, but we have no representation in anymore.
We don't take part in trainings, we don't go to meetings.
We're functionally out of it, and we certainly will be
after this, I believe. But I mean the as an
(27:57):
example of how you can't really negotiate with someone with
this kind of ideology in so far as from this position,
like I'm not saying that like this only ends with
international peacekeepers hoisting a flag over Blakhu with this kind
of power discrepancy that the Azaria government has said that
they will negotiate with the government in Stepanekert in Karabak,
(28:21):
once they dissolve and lay down all their weapons. So
once you completely disarm and get rid of all of
the ways you can defend yourself from the obvious slaughter
that's coming your way, then we'll talk. Is that really
a way? Is that a way of any negotiations could
ever happen? Like being realistic, of course it's not. The
(28:42):
government of kara Bak is the only thing. The government
of Karabak and the small local self defense force is
the only negotiating like little crumb that they have because
it's stopping them from being murdered. And for people who
think I'm being we like I'm overreacting or something, look
(29:03):
at how they treated that. Any Armenian civilians that fell
into their hands into the twenty twenty war. They cut
off their ears, they cut off their fingers, they cut
off their noses, They fucking behead of them. It was
like watching Isis videos. But they're wearing multiicam and wearing
fast helmets and they publish them proudly on the internet.
They're not ashamed of this. You can only imagine what
(29:23):
happens when a city of one hundred thousand people falls
into their hands. Yeah, and that is war song in the
nineteen forties.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
Something around like, Yeah, about one hundred, one hundred and
twenty thousand people who are who are still there.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Our media cannot solve this problem. We do not have
the power to force them to the negotiation table to
guarantee the rights of existence for people where they live.
The countries that do are now friends with the country
that is doing it, so it requires some actual diplomatic spine.
(29:57):
And the thing is, you know, the joke is, every
time someone is deeply concerned about something, you take a
drink and then you don't fucking alcoholism, but you can't say,
you know, we call for an immediate cease of the
military offensive without an or or like or what or
fucking what? Like what are you doing? Like? You can't
(30:19):
use strong words to stop a fucking ballistic missile. Yeah,
there needs to be an ore.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
We're staring at about a century since we had a
series of conflicts, many of which were based around different
sort of like regional powers scapegoating and then carrying out
acts of tremendous violence against groups of people, including specifically
the Armenians.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
Like a tale as old as time. It's being treated
as an anti terror operation. And you can go back
to nineteen thirteen during the GENUSI, the first genocide, and
it's the same exact excuse the Ottoman Empire used well.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
And it's being treated you know, that's what how the
Azaris are excusing it. But over here, like when you're
talking about like US politics, about Western politics, it's it's
it's a thing that's happening over there, right, Like it's
a couple of countries that most people don't know very
much about, and like what is what is our Why
are we involved in this? And it's like, well, because
(31:18):
this is the thing that we said, like after one
hundred something million people died, the idea that we all
kind of came together with was, well, we should probably
stop folks from doing some of the things that led
to all of those terrible wars.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
And we just hear people frame it as, oh, those
people have just been fighting forever. Yeah, no, we haven't.
It's been within my lifetime. Like I'm thirty five years old.
This war is not older than i am.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Yeah, Like there was not always mass violence between like
the people in this region, right, Like Azaries and Armenians
have not been killing each other over art Soak for
thousands of years, right like that.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
There's Armenians, and yeah, they used to live next to
one another. We're not intractable millennia long enemy. But this
isn't one of those conflicts that you I mean, you
shouldn't do that with any conflict because it's a scapegoat
to get you to stop caring and educating yourself about it.
But specifically in the context of this episode, certainly not
(32:26):
this conflict. This conflict involves very recent events. Yeah, and
it's it's tied to major geopolitical events happening in the
world right now that whatever country that you're living in
and listening to, your country is involved in.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
And it's I mean, like the the the actual as
far as I can see that, the actual like realistic
solution here because this is not a case, right, I
don't think like shipping a bunch of fucking weapons is
a realistic thing to hope for. Like the actual realistic
case for stopping this is putting people in the country
(33:02):
that uh provide some sort of like barrier to a
Zeri aggression, right, Like that's like it's taking action.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
We need the thing that we did for Kosovo yes, yes,
that's exactly what we need without without any kind of
negotiations or debates like that is the only thing that
will stop what is coming. It's not an if like
and this is coming.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
And hey online left people, you know, the Azaris are
buy in Israeli arms, Like this is a situation in which,
like we're not talking about we don't need we don't
need guys kicking indoors. We literally need dudes standing around
to create a barrier by the sheer political fact of
(33:47):
their existence, right, That's.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
All it takes. And not to mention if you're trying
to frame this in like an anti imperialist context or whatever,
Agema Jhon is literally a fascist fucking dictatorship like the Yeah,
and Armenia. We have our problems, Karabak, they have their problems,
you know, but they're functioning representative democracies and with people
(34:10):
in land that they've lived on. It's I mean, there
are other people who are indigenous to that land as well,
but it's also theirs. It's if you want to think
of it in that way, which I don't really like
to do because it's it's dirt. But the real issue
here is the people. The people's lives are like, it
doesn't fucking matter who controls to PANICRT at the end
(34:32):
of the day, if people are allowed to live there
and live their lives in dignity in the way that
they choose to live them. Yeah, but that's not going
to happen if the fascist dictatorship's genocidal armies come storming through, right.
It's it's simply impossible. And that's one of the main
reasons why Kak Karabak Armenians and the Armenian State as
(34:54):
well has continuously said that Karabak can't exist within the
frameworks of the Azaria Reports public because the Azari Republic
is demonstrously uh anti Armenian. Like for instance, if you
have an Armenian surname like I do, you can't even
go there. It doesn't even matter if you've even been
to this country or not. Simply existing is enough to
(35:16):
be denied entry. It's it's not a place. I mean,
if you want to see how they'll be treated, look
how they treat their own fucking people. Yeah, it's like
asking anyone to be liberated by the fucking forces of
North Korea or Saudi Arabia or something. It's obscene, it's absurd.
The only thing that like and I'm not saying I
(35:37):
support the government in Armenia as any as anybody who
knows me. I don't support any government. But the only
constant track they've had is we support their right for
self determination, as anybody should. And they voted in the
eighties to be on their own, not to be part
of Armenia, not to be part of ANDWJAN, but to
(35:57):
be the republic of art SoC because they're the only
people who care about their own rights, their own degnity,
and their own right to existence. That's all anybody should
ever defend is people's rights to do that. Yeah, And
ever since, they've made a functioning state with free and
fair elections, ministries that handle these things, ministries of health,
ministries of defense, ministries of education. It's a functioning republic.
(36:23):
It's not some statelet that barely functions. And the powers
invading it don't only mean to destroy those the separatist power,
they mean to destroy the people that live there. There's
no room for them to exist in this country.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
So, Joe, what do you expect us to see coming
in the next couple of days here? As you know,
we're about twenty four hours in right now to the
renewed a Zeri attack on art Sock, Like, what is
your kind of expectation for what happens next?
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Well, the art Sock Defense Army is doing their best. Yeah,
I mean, obviously they're fighting as hard as they possibly can. However,
without immediate international intervention in some capacity, I mean physical intervention,
a you will stop or this will occur type situation,
it's only a matter of time until it ends.
Speaker 1 (37:30):
Yeah, Yeah, I think that's.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
And to quote the former head of Doctors without Borders,
you cannot stop a genocide with doctors. Yeah, there's only
one way to stop it. And you know, like I've
said a million times before, I believe before on your show, Yep,
the only thing that's allowing this to go on is
the unwillingness of literally anybody to get involved. And there's
(37:56):
a couple of quotes about that, Yeah, exactly, it's it's
not a new concept.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Yeah. And gide studies.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
As someone who studies war, studies genocide and has fought
in war. War is fucking awful and I don't want
it for anybody. I don't want a Zari kids to
conscripts to be fucking dying for this. I don't want
Armenians to be dying for this. But the only thing
that's going to stop it is someone who is not Armenian,
not as AARI, and certainly not fucking Russian, to say
stop or we will fucking stop it.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
Yep. Yeah, I think that's I think that's as uh
as good a point to close on as there is
as we're gonna find at least. Joe, do you have
anything else you wanted to kind of like bring up
before we roll out here? I would? I would.
Speaker 2 (38:47):
This is normally where I would say you could support
the people involved in this in this way, but unfortunately,
there's they're under siege, they're surrounded, nothing can get to them.
There's I got nothing, man.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Yeah, I mean that that is the reality, right, It's
like there's nowhere to send money, there's nothing to like,
and to be quite frank, I mean, I think people
should be harassing their their representatives over this. But you know,
I'm not overly optimistic. Yeah, the Biden administration has been
making noises, you know, but but I you know, I
(39:22):
have not seen evidence that they're going to do more
than that yet.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
So I will say if the United States gets involved
and they really want to turn Armenia to the West,
which they absolutely should. There's no better time, like now,
this is the chance to do it. You want to
show that, like the West is the way for Armenians
and pull them completely away from Russia because everybody wants
to get the fuck away from Russia. Like, yeah, there's
(39:46):
thousands of people marching down the street literally saying fuck
Russia yesterday. But you need to give them a path
to do so, and this is the way to do it.
Speaker 1 (39:56):
Yeah. Well, shit, thanks Joe. Sorry, sorry we keep having
you on the show in this uh this situation. I
uh well, we'll come on and talk about something. I
don't know. We probably won't.
Speaker 2 (40:12):
Neither of our shows that we're talking about.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Other of our shows talk about anything lighthearted. Check out
Joe's show Lions Led by Donkeys, The Lions Lit by
Donkeys podcast, Great Military History podcast. Joe, thank you for
being on, and please, I don't know, uh, good luck.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
Rob It could.
Speaker 3 (40:38):
Happen here as a production of cool Zone Media. For
more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool
Zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio, app,
Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts, you can
find sources for It could happen here, Updated monthly at
cool zonemedia dot com, slash sources. Thanks for listening.
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