December 4, 2024 • 37 mins
James speaks to Wladimir van Wilgenburg about recent changes in the Syrian Civil war, what this means for the democratic project in North East Syria and how to find good information on the conflict online.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Also media. Okay, hi everyone, and welcome to it could
happen here today. We're very lucky to be joined by
Vladimir von Bildenberg, who's an underground journalist who covers Syria,
and Curtis Dan has written two books, including one on
the alliance between the SDF and the Coalition. Is that
is that a fair introduction in Vladimir, Yeah, okay, thank you,
(00:27):
thank you so much for joining us. There has obviously
been a massive increase, in a massive change in the
conflict in Syria in the last week or so, just
under a week, and I think the information that's available
to people is often very bad, very delayed, or one
side or rather putting out propaganda things which mischaracterized the
(00:47):
situation on the ground, especially with regard to the Syrian
National Army, who we're going to talk about. Would you
mind giving us a sort of very brief explanation of
what has happened since last Wednesday when HTS, who will
have to explain later, launch their operation against Aleppo.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Well, in general, I mean the current situation Aleppo came
to a surprise too many many people didn't expect it.
So just after the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Hayata te Rocham,
which is an offshoot of al Qaeda. So they said
they don't have relations with al Qaida anymore. They split
off from al Qaeda. They launched a big operation in
(01:28):
Aleppo against the Serian government or the same regime, whatever
you want to call it. I think initially they didn't
think that they would go so far, all the way
into Alappo city. There have been agreements between Russia, Iran,
and Turkey and Syria in Astana about the deconflection zone
(01:49):
in the northwestern province of Italy. So the HTS insurgents,
they claim they launched this operation towards Aleppo in response
to violation of this Astana agreement. So according to that agreement,
this area will be in control of the HDS and
the other area will be control of the regime and
they wouldn't bother each other. But this agreement was never
really implemented, I mean versus Russia. They were constantly bombing it.
(02:13):
Sometimes the HTS would attack regime positions. Also according to
this deconfliction zone, actually the Serian government and reining back
armed groups they went actually in that the deconfliction zone
was supposed to be controlled by the Seerian insurgents. So
they launched this operation in response to the they say
the violations by the Serian government, and I think because
(02:35):
when they realized that the defenses of the Serian government
very weak, they pushed further into Aleppo and it was
not really planned to take the city of Aleppo, although
there's also a video of Jiulani, the leader of HDS,
saying that my brothers, one day we're going to be
an Aleppo. So maybe it was planned. We don't know
really for sure, but the fact is that the Syrian
(02:55):
government defenses collapsed, and for some people in the reg
that was sort of reminded of the days of Mussol
when the Iraqi army they fled Mussol in twenty thirteen fourteen,
and then Isis took over, although the ht has really
denied that they are similar to ISIS, although they have
a similar Islamish ideology. So they took the city of
(03:17):
Aleppo in three days, and they have been trying to
go up towards Hama, a city more up. So far
they haven't been able to take the city. And on
the other hand, you also have another group called the
Seran National Army, which is groups composed of basic groups
that were supported by the Turkish government. They also started
to move. They also started to carry out operations against
(03:41):
Kurdish lad Forces also known as the Cerrian Democratic Forces.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Of the YPG.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
And also they started to do operations against the Syrian
government in above Albab and also in northern Aleppo. And
they took also several towns in northern Aleppo. And also they.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Advanced and I think their main reach of that.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
So while the HDS is primarily mostly fighting against the
Syrian government, I think the Serian National Army, because it's
back by Turkey, they also have an interest to undermine
the Syrian Democratic Forces because Turkey in the past they
have said they don't want to have a second Kurdish
autonomous region in the region, because you have already won
in Iraq, which was became recognized after the fall of
(04:23):
the damp, So you have a Kurdistan region in Iraq,
and Turkey was sort of afraid to have a second
Kurdistan region in Syria, especially because it's created by a
group which has ideological.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Affiliation with the pik Ak with.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
They followed the idology of the imprisoned leader of the
pik A k Abdulachalan, which Turkey sees is.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
A terrorist organization.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
So it's very complex, which we always keep saying about Syria,
but you basically have two different operations. You have the
Turkish back groups that are trying to stop the Kurts
from linking up with Aleppo, and then you have the HDS,
the Islamist groups that are trying to go up and
they already took Aleapo and they also took many areas
(05:03):
in the countryside of Hama, and actually they now control
all of province. So in the past the certain government
they control some parts of lip but now they control
the it's as they control all of Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
So I think if we start by looking, I think
most people who listen to this will be familiar with
the SDF, with the Autonomous Administration in North East Syria,
and with the ri Java Revolution, and they'll be wondering.
Kind of the question I get mostly is like how
does this impact that? That's what people are asking. So
(05:38):
with that in mind, I think we should explain. Perhaps
we've talked before in this show about Operation Piece Spring,
Euphretty Shield and these Turkish incursions into previously SDF controlled
areas and the genocide or violence that accompanied that, or
ethnic cleansing, however you want to phrase it. Can you
explain what's happened in the areas where they have advanced
(06:01):
and like what that's meant for the Kurdish people who
lived there or in some cases are still there.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Yeah, in the in the northern Aleppo and Aleppo City,
so you have two Kurdish neighborhoods called Ashrafiya and Chech Maksut.
There are around one hundred to two hundred thousand people
living there. Then you have also two small Kurdish towns
called Tel Aran and Tel Hassel, which have changed hands
constantly during the Serian Civil War between the YPG, the
(06:27):
Syrian government and Iran, then by the rebels done by
ISIS than by al Kaida, like it was a big messah.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Then you have also you have like Kurts.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
That were displaced from Afrine because Turkey they carried out
an operation against the YPG in twenty eighteen. So you
have thousands of Kurts that left Afrine. So the statistics
are a bit unclear, but at least there were around
ten thousand IDPs living in camps in northern Aleppo, and
you also have people living outside of the camp, so
the statistics are always a bit unclear, but it's they
(07:00):
now say that they were around ten thousand families that
were displaced, so they were already displaced from Afrine before.
And there's this town of Tara Aphad, which has been
a strategic location in Aleppo because it was sort of
like opening up the way to Aleppo City and the
Kurdish back forces they took actually this town with Russian
(07:22):
support from the Turkish back rebels, so they had like
grievances about this town, but Turkey even during the Afrine
operation they didn't get the green light to take this
town from the Kurkish back groups. Also, the Syrian government
was there by the way after dreamings, so this town
always was like a focal point of contention between the
(07:43):
Kurts and the Syrian insurgents. So what happened after HCS
took Aleppo the Syrian National Army with the backing of Turkey,
they moved on towards Teara Lapad. And also because in
the past there was more balance in Aleppo because you
have also two small towns called Mumble and Zahara.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
They were like prominently.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Inhabited by people from the Shia religion, so there were
Iranian back groups there and they were in the back
of Telarafad, so they were sort of as a balance.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
So they sort of like the curves, were.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Able to hold out in Tarapad despite like many offensive
by the Turkish back groups. So what happened because of
basically all the Syrian government, they were removed from Aleppo
and as a result, like they were very weakend and
completely isolated. I mean until now there's Kurtish forces in
Astrophia and Czech Masud, but they're completely surrounded and embargoed
(08:35):
by the HTS, which is not something new because before
this conflict, this new renewed conflict in Aleppo, the Syrian
government was also imposing embargoes on those two neighborhoods, not
allowing food and topping electricity and bothering people at checkpoints
because they had like always issues with the Kurtish led
forces because they're sort of in the Syrian Civil War,
(08:56):
they have always played sort of a third role, like
they want to have their autonomy. Then you have the
Shiran armed groups. They are trying to topple the Syrian government,
and then you had the Syrian government trying to stop
this from happening. And then yeah, the Kurtish led forces
were trying to create the autonomous administration and they got
some support from the US in the fight against ISIS
(09:16):
since the Battle of Kovaniyah. So yeah, this is like
the situation a lepos. So now what happened is that
thea fat were in twenty sixteen, the Parabs of Telfa,
they fled actually this after as the FYPG took this down.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
So now the Seen rebels they took this down, and.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
This time that the people that fled from after into
these towns that they were living around four or five
six IDP camps there, they were forced to flee. So
the Kurdish groups they were like trying to resist the
SNA advances, but they were not able to resist them
because they were completely surrounded because as I mentioned, Nobel
and Zaka fell, so they were like completely pinched from
(09:54):
all sides.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
But before they had always like.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Nobble and Zaha behind them, so they could not not
be completely surrounded. But this time they were completely surrounded.
They were forced to leave there or not able to
continue the fight. So I think there was like a
de facto deal or something, because you saw like convoys
with actually with fighters with weapons and armed hunvis. They
were like being escorted two checkpoints and they were allowed
to cross the ward. Sabka actually a town in northeast area.
(10:19):
And maybe most likely the US they were involved in
the sort of de facto deal and Turkey, but so
far the US they haven't comment on that, but most
likely there was sort of a deal for the forces
in Tarafa to leave with the civilians and they're now
hosted in camps, in displacement camps in the town of Tabka.
And then there are still Kurts living as I mentioned
(10:40):
in Ashtraphia and Chef Masuda to big neighborhoods in Aleppo.
And then you have also two small Kurdish towns around
thel Hassa which are now controlled by the year National
Army the Turkish back groups, so the hyattas their local administration.
They offered the deal to the Kurdish fighters. They said,
you can leave these two curt neighborhoods and Aleppo without
(11:01):
any issues, and the Curs that are living there, we
respect them and they can stay there.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
But the Kurdish fighters, they have to leave.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
But then there was a statement i think yesterday by
the leader of the SEF, the Muslim Ubdi. He was
saying like we were forced to evacuate the people because
we were trying to create a corridor between these Kurtish
enclaves in Aleppo with the rest of North East area,
because they are like Turkish backed rebels in the certain
government in between trying to trying to make a corridor.
(11:29):
So they said this corridor was actually was broken and
they were forced to evacuate. But he said that the
Kurtish forces were still in Aleppo resisting. So it seems
that the YPG didn't completely follow this offer of the HS.
But of course we don't know if there was maybe
a backdoor deal with the HTS to allow first people
in northern Aleapo to leave and then maybe in a
(11:50):
later phase that they will also leave Aleppo because they
are there in a quite difficult situation.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
Yeah, a very difficult situation.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
But they're now accused by the rebels that there are
position snipers in Aleppo, and then they are still a
Leppo but they never left Czech Masud and Astrapia, and
but I also talked to people. They're saying that civilians
they were offered in Czech Masud and Astrapia to leave
that area if they wanted to leave, so they were
not forced to leave, that they had the option opportunity
(12:16):
to leave that area if they wanted. But then the
buses didn't show up and they didn't leave, because I mean,
they need only not only evacuated Kurdish civilians from northern Lepo,
but I think they also evacuated the Shia population of
Dubo Zakha. There were sometimes also that they were also
evacuated to north east Ayria because they don't feel safe
for their lives if those rebels take those areas.
Speaker 4 (12:39):
Yeah, and they are still there.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
They don't want to be captured by the rebels and
used as hostages or so most likely they left with
the Kurts to north east Syria and what will happen
to them. They probably go to Iraq or to other
areas in Syria.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
Yeah, you meet like in Northeast Aria, you meet sometimes
like either former ratime soldiers or people who have left
regime areas and like they've made their lives there. So
(13:14):
now we have this situation right where, yeah, we have
these two little islands. We'll just call them YPG for
the ease of to not introduce another acronym, right of
like a Kurdish armed folks in Aleppo. To complicate this further,
and people will probably have seen this, I want to
explain it. In the Rezor, we have a different situation, right,
(13:36):
we have their the SDF attacking Iranian back relicious and
the regime. Do you feel comfortable explaining what's going on
in Darrisora where that's a different calculus.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So since former president or the incoming president Donald Trump
when he pulled out troops from Syria in twenty nineteen
when Turkey did an offensive against the Curbs and Talabas
in the US, they left, but then there was so
much criticism from both Democrats and Republicans that he was
forced to come back. So until now, there are still
(14:08):
nine hundred Jewish troops in Detozor Province and in Husska Province,
which is actually not a lot because if you look
to for instance, South Korea, there are thousands of troops
in South Korea and in other places, so it's not
very a lot. But in the US discussions it's always
discussed all we have troops in Syria, but actually compared
to other countries is not a very big number.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Nine hundred people, no, not unto very small footprint.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
So they have this small footprint in Detzor and Hassaka
and they basically they worked with the Kurtish led forces
since the Battle of Kobani to basically defeat the Isis
Kelephate because it was a threat to European security and
US security and they were trying to carry out attacks
in Europe, and there were many attacks in Europe and
when civilians were killed.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
So yeah, Ani Isis fight.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
This is one of the reasons actually why the Kurtish
led forces they were forced to go to Detozor because
it was their last bastion in twenty nineteen when they
defeated the territorial Caliphate of Isis. So since there you
have this the SEF there and they have their own
administration in the Azora and they have like local forces
and Arabs that joined them in the fight against sizes.
(15:13):
So what happened that in the last few years, in
the last one or two years, there have been attempts
by the Syrian government and Iranian back groups basically to
recruit Arab tribes to fight against the SDF, So there
have been several skirmishes and battles since that time. After
also the SDF they arrested a commander of them that
they thought he was like going to portrade them. So
(15:36):
since that time, there were like several skirmishes between these
milasis that are calling themselves the tribal army or something
in that regard. And then you have the SCF, so
you had like fights between the Iranian back groups.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
And the SDF.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
And recently with all the changes in Syria, there were
a number of villages around seven six villages that were
actually Russian army.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
Was based in those villages.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
It was like the line sort of dividing the US
back as theF forces and the Syrian government forces. And
there's also a river, but those villages they were like
in front of the river, so the river is sort
of naturally dividing the areas between the SDF and and
the Syrian government. But there were like still a number
of villages that were not on that line, and actually
there were Russian troops based in that villages. Yeah, but
(16:23):
with the whole crisis with Aleppo and the fight now
between the HCS and the Syrian government in Hannah, the
Russians they moved out from those villages, so those villages
that actually are almost empty, there is nothing there.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
So during this.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Situation they a s UF they just moved in those
villages and there was actually not so much fighting, although
on the social media I see that all there's fighting
and this kind of stuff. So there was some over
these like the last one or two years, they have
been heavy fighting between the SDF and Reign Impact Groups,
but in these villages not so much because it was
just empty villages and they just took them over and
(17:01):
there was no one there.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Yeah, okay, So that leaves us with like I guess
an e s getting a little bit larger in the
south and the smaller in the west.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Yeah, very much smaller in the west.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
And it's even not clear if they can keep their
presence in Aleppo because I mean, Chef Marsuten Aspia is
now completely surrounded by the HDS, and it seems that
the HDS they have been a little bit softer with
the SDF and YPG than the SNA because the SNA,
I mean, they have their issues because they're also backed
by the Turkish government and the Turkish government. They always
(17:37):
said their policy is basically to stop the SDF from
treating autonomous area, and they also said the SDF is
linked to the PIKK, although the SDF they deny links
to the PIKK, although they don't deny their idological affiliation.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
With the prison pick A k here. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
So Turkey always said that they are feeling threatened, and
they have always claimed that attacks were planned on Turkey
from northeast Asyria, from Java on on on Turkey. Yeah,
THEFF deny that. I think there was also there was
not so a long time ago. There was also an
attack in Ankara, and Turkey also claimed that it was
a carry planned from British cities in Syria.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Yeah, so that's that's like the situation.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
Yeah, they gives Yeah, they give us a pretty good
summary of the situation.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
I think.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
So let's talk about HTS a bit, because I think
you're going to see one of two things. Right when
we talk about the SNA and HDS, A lot of
outlets will just collapse them under the same descriptor they
will just say Syrian rebels, and I think people will
think of the original largely secular uprising in Syria in
twenty eleven, and if they have not been paying attention,
(18:55):
they'll realize that ISIS has been and gone. But they'll think, oh,
these must be the same guys. These are not the
same guys, but some of them maybe the same guys
who are originally part of Jiulani was originally sent there
by a back daddy way back to be part of ISIS.
But these are not the secular rebels who originally rose
up in Syria. And so can you explain, like, HTS
(19:16):
has this very interesting kind of legitimacy project right, like
it's trying to build a pseudo state and present like
a kind of gentler Jihadism. I don't know how to
say it, but can you explain a little bit of
this transformation of HTS and what you make of it.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
I mean, as you mentioned that Julani, the current leader
of the HS, he was sent by at that time
I think it was Al Kaida are the Islamic State
of Iraq, and yeah, use area basically to establish like
but at that time there was no ISIS yet I
think so. So later basically he refused to budge allegiance
(19:54):
and he basically did his own thing. He created Jabalta Nostra,
which was the affiliate of al KaiA. But then he
decided to basically split from al Qaeda and he announced
like the links to I think at that time that
leader was Zawahiri, but I'm not sure. So he basically
split from al Qaeda. And you still have a split
(20:14):
off group from al Qaeda in Itlyp. It's called h
Russell Din, which they actually they had issues with. They
had some problems with them. So HDS, although Isis territory
was defeated twenty nineteen, the HTS or they basically with
all the creates in Syria because I mean they have
been fighting out for all the problems between the Serian
(20:36):
government and different armed groups. They managed to sort of
cementa crowd throw in the province of lip and they
created their own little administration there. But despite that, they
say that we don't have any links to al Qaeda.
I mean, they're still listed by for instance, the US
as a terrorist organization.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Yeah, there's a ten million dollar bounty on Julani still, right,
they just never took it away from Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
So I mean it seems that the US doesn't believe
this moderation idea that the HS tries to show them
more moderately. But my idea of the HS, it's more
like a sort of a lighter, softer version of ices.
I mean, they're not like ices that they're gonna broadcast
people being blown up or beheaded on the film screen.
It's just that they do it in the back of
(21:18):
the screen. I mean, there's people being executed according to
the Islamic Shadia a lot.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
There are people being imprisoned.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
I mean you also had protests, actually it left against
Jolani that they were actually opposed to the authoritarian rule.
And I think then you have separate from the sort
of the Islamic Islamics, which you can actually sort of
compare to the Taliban. Yes, I think that's a good comparison, Yes,
to the Taliban. And also I think Taliban they have
some relationhops actually the HS, and they also congratulated the
(21:47):
HTS after they took control of Aleppo, so sort of
it's like a Taliban rual, though of course Taliban is
very different contacts related to Syria culture and Afghan culture,
so it's different, of course, but are both yes, Islamist
projects with a national project at the same time, so
it's Islamist project for Syria and the Taliban have an
Islamist project for Afghanistan, although you also have Pakistani Taliban
(22:10):
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Yeah, so it's not.
Speaker 2 (22:13):
Like a transnational jihad, but you can call it like
a national jihad maybe.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
I think that's the crucial difference, right at least for
the US, like that makes them kind of more amenable
than than ISIS or even Al kaider Is that.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Yeah, they have this nationally contained Jahadi vision.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
So they don't do attacks in Europe or in the US.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
But of course there are several groups in ITLAB that
are sort of falling under the control of HDS that
are possibly could do external attacks, et cetera. And apart
from that, you have the Syrian National Army. So the
Syrian National Army, it's like a mix of different groups.
As you mentioned in the beginning of the series Civil War,
you had the Phisian Army, but then the Freezeran Army.
(22:55):
They split in several groups. I mean some like linked
to Muslim brotherhoods, some linked to Turkmen groups, other groups,
secular groups, et cetera. So all these groups that were
basically fighting in different provinces, they were all gathered because Turkey.
They did several Turkish military did several operations in twenty
sixteen in northern Syria with the main aim is to
(23:18):
stop the YPG from linking up the Kurdish enclaves on
the border with Turkey. So they did I think the
first one I was Euphrad Shield. Then they had I
think Operation All of Brands in Afrin in twenty.
Speaker 4 (23:31):
Eighteen, incredible names.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Then I think the last operation account recalled was in
twenty nineteen when they took Telaviat and Serkania from the
Kurtish Laud forces the YPGSDA. So they had these three operations.
And these groups are sort of a mixed as I mentioned,
a different groups with also different ideologies. Some are more
Turkmen in nature, some of them are more Islamist in nature.
(23:57):
Some of them are like sort of leftovers from secular
groups that USIFI. Some of them even they in the
past they received support from the US from the CIA
against the Seian regimes. So some of them they receive support.
And this is like a sort of umbrella of self organizations.
So HDS is one group and they control also other
groups in but it's one group. But the SNA there
(24:19):
are like a lot of different groups, and they also
have been fighting each other several times in areas and
Turkish control.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
So this is very.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Different and there are more sectarian in nature, let's say more.
I mean, they have also been less under control than
the HTS in the way that there have been a
lot of kidnappings for ransom, a lot of like sexual
violence against woman and rape. This is all documented by
self organizations, Juan organizations. They also have child soldiers, so
(24:48):
they have different kinds of issues, and but they have
been more accused of like more sort of gang style
of activity, and that's why. Also some of them they
were sanctioned by the US and also some of them
they have integrated like former IIS fighters in their ranks.
And you also have like you have some groups that
are frondos or the other are originally for instance from
(25:10):
the area around Mato or Aza. Some of them they
kid they were displaced from Gutta, so a lot of
them there. Also they came because the Serian government they
advanced with Russian support, and then these groups were brought
by buses to the areas under Turkish control. Yeah, so
these areas became a sort of like maybe it's a
bad word or sort of a dumping ground for all
these Syrian rebel groups that were not completely defeated but
(25:33):
displaced by Syrian government and offenses with the Russian support.
So I mean before they were an Aleppo and homes
and Hamma and Damascats in all this group they were
moved with buses through agreements between around Turkey, Russia and
Syria to northern Syria to it and now these groups
they are coming back because they were never completely defeated.
(25:55):
I mean, they had their own administration. So the Serian
National Army they fall under are the Turkish back the
Cerian opposition I think they call it the Serian National
Coalition or in Arabic the ital AF. So they have
their own interim government administration in THEIRS on the Turkish control,
and then you have the Salvation government under the Ahso
the are t two different administrations. And they also doesn't
(26:18):
mean that they agree with so, so just calling them
the rebels it's a little bit like, yeah, it doesn't
really doesn't fit to the reality. But of course you
also have to deal with the fact that for media,
if they want to explain complex situations to a general public,
it's very difficult to just say, Okay, you have this acronym,
(26:38):
and you have this acronym, and you have the White
and the HS and the SNA, so people they.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
Will lose their interest.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
So that's why it always becomes sort of this black
and white. So, oh, you have the Syrian insurgence and
then you have the Serian government, and then it's already
complex enough to also add Kurts to the mix.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
So they also, of course often the Turkish government.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
They got very angry that the media keeps calling the
YPG the Curse, because oh, they don't represent the curse.
But you can't say that with any group in Syria
or anywhere in the world. I mean, I mean you
have in Americans, you have different political parties. You have
different parties in Syria, you have different parties in Turkey.
So these groups don't represent all the Syrians, or all
the Arabs, or all the Kurts or all the Allwais.
(27:18):
There are always different political factions and that's what it
makes so complicated in Syria because a lot of these
based groups got fragmented. But actually with versus the support
of Turkey, they actually united on the one umbrella, which
is called the Syrian National Army, and then of course
even on the Syrian government side, there's many different groups.
I mean you have you have Iranian back armed groups,
(27:38):
you have groups from Lebanon that are helping the Hezbola
alban says Bola. Then you have Iraqi Iranian back groups
that are supporting Syrian government. Then you have also Shias
that were recruited from Afghanistan. And then also in the
Syrian government security structure, I mean, in the past there
was no room for malicious but they have, for instance,
the NDF, which is sort of like a Syrian government
backed militia which even some times part with the Syrian
(28:01):
government itself when they tried to become become more too
much powerful, sort of like what you haven't Wagner in
Russia that we try to challenge the Russian government and
then they got third bailed. So it's like even with
a certain sort of the forces back in the Cerian army,
it's not like so simple. It's also not you have
just a Serian army that's it. You have also different
kinds of militia, some supported by Iran, some supported by Russia,
(28:25):
that are backing the Serian government.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
Yeah, everyone wants. I think Ukraine has really reinforced this.
They want war to be like colors on a map
and a front line, and the front line moves and
that's you know, and that's just not how like oftentimes
there's little lines on a map will be in reality,
it's people driving around and pick up trucks with dishcas
in the back, wondering where the other guys are and
(28:47):
what's going on. You know. It's not like Ukraine, where
you have trenches and people firing each other from trench
lines to gradually move. And as much as it would
be easy to have modelists, we just don't.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
In Syria.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
Yeah, I mean, sorry, it's different because if it's more
there are more religious and ethnic groups done in Ukraine.
I mean Ucrime is you have the the Ukrainians and
the Russians, and I mean you also have people speaking
Russian in other areas of Ukraine. But it's where it's
much more complex in in in Syria. Althoio obviously also
have different groups fighting in Ukraine, but in Syria it's
(29:19):
a bit more complex and it's difficult for the media
to get a grip on that without like you know,
like trying to also explain to a normal reader of
what is going on in Syria.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
But also in.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
General you have all this international media that are cutting
down costs and they're closing there for and bureaus. So
also I mean the money for like extensive reporting in
Syria is also getting less or in general in internationally speaking, yes,
and then you have another problem is that you have
the problem of access in Syria. So if you are
wanted to go to the same government area is very
(29:52):
difficult because if you have reported in Syrian rebel areas,
the same government is not going to give you a visa.
You have to be like very pro Serian government if
you go to the areas under rebel control to be honest, like,
it's very difficult for any journalists to go to HDS
areas or the Eran National Army area.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
So even if a journalist wants.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
To report positively about the rebels, it's very difficult. Then
they have like a press adcutation in Turkey and they
have to cross the boarders very complicated, so there's barely
in very rare cases journalists going into northwest Aria and
then with the Kurdish controlled areas, if you can call
them like that, like Northeast area, it's a bit easier.
(30:31):
I mean, there are people flying to Iraqi, Curtistan and
then they can get like a permission from the Kurdish authorities.
They're in Iraqi, Curtistan and then they can cross the border.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
So it's a bit easier.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
But the number of journals going there is very limited,
and most of the interests actually of the Western media
was not so much about the cern conflict. It was
more about this Western ISIS woman and ISIS fighters that
were jailed or held in camps in Northeast area. So
most of the focus of Western media was most of
the time, okay, what's happening in the whole camp, because
(31:04):
you have thousands of ISIS families there or in verses
in the prison. So, I mean, the American journals were
interested in US DOAH fighters, and the Dutch were interested
in Dutch ISIS families are fighters, and the same for
many other countries.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Yeah, the British media is terrible for that. They'll go
to Northeast Syria and then talk about Northeast Syria and
this our whole just exists as kind of a bubble
outside of context in that reporting.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, they just talk about Shamima Begoon and she became
sort of a celebrity in the UK. Yeah, although I
think even on that actress nowadays it's like very limited
because a lot of these zero countries in the UK,
they have their own domestic issues. So also in general,
the interesting in Syria has gone down a lot, and
I think also with this current conflict and Aleppo, it
(31:48):
will get some intention in the media for a few days,
but at some point it's.
Speaker 4 (31:51):
Gonna go down again, yes, of course, and.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Maybe there will be conflicts and other parts of the
world again, So I think at some point also this
media attention, the media attention for Sir already was like
very low unless it's gonna affect Europe in a large
extent because it could also create new waves of refugees
trying to go to Europe. Yeah, there's many people that
were displaced.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
Again.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
It was a very nice post on X by one
Journeys from I think a Saudi outlet, and he was
saying it's very sad to see. He was basically saying
like at any moment, our people can be displaced at
any time, or can.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
Be displaced again.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
So that's like sort of the life of Syrians that
live in these different like front lines, like anytime they
can displace, like the people are Traffee, they were displaced
in twenty eighteen and now twenty twenty four they were
displaced again. And then you have people displaced by the
Syrian government living in the houses of kurts in Afrine
and they're also victims of this conflict. So yeah, so
(32:50):
it's a very complicated situation, people being displaced, moving in
the houses of displaced, and the displace living in other
people houses that are also displaced. So it's like a
very cynical and sad situation.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
Yeah, and a very very difficult one for civilians. And certainly,
like with the changing government in the US, I mean,
it seems unlikely that we will be reaching out to
help those those displaced civilians in the in the near future.
And certainly we've seen a lot of Kurdish people who
have been displaced either by Turkish aggression or who there's
a whole other situation with the Kurdish areas in Turkey
(33:27):
at the moment and their elections and such which we
don't have time to go into. But many of them
have come to the US and I've interviewed lots of
them for this show, so we've I think people will
be familiar with that, right, I mean, I think that's
probably about all we have time for.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
But I wanted to offer you a chance.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
You have very good tweets, you have a very good
understanding of the whole situation. You have your articles do
an excellent job of making it understandable. So where can
people find your writing and follow you?
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Well?
Speaker 2 (33:53):
I mean, I you can find my tweets on my
personal Twitter page which is my name is blotting me
for Blberg at x Vivan Wrockenberg. And also I write
for different outlets and think tanks like First As, I
write for Middle Least im from the Washington Institute. Also
I've been writing some pieces for Carnegie. So yeah, I've
(34:16):
mean if we're writing for several places on the current situation. Yeah,
and sometimes Side to Interview, Side talked on BBC a
few times on the situation and Aduchavella. So you can
find my work on my Twitter profile. Always post my
articles there and yeah.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
Yep, that's great.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Is there anything else you'd like to maybe suggest that
people follow. I think it could be really easy to
get a lot of propaganda when it comes to two, sirius,
So I think you'd suggest that people kind of get
their news from.
Speaker 2 (34:48):
Well, I mean, I think in general x is still
like a good platform. It has been from the beginning
of the series Civil War, although of course you have
different accounts with different views supporting different facts. So it's
always good to verify any videos posted, although it's like
more difficult to very five videos than the pictures. But
it's always good to verify locations and the background of
(35:11):
people that are posting stuff. And then also I think
it's very interesting and good to follow the maps of
the Serian Civil War because you have several places where
they published maps of the civil war, so it's easier
to follow it on the map than buy tweets or
posts on eggs. But I think in general, I mean,
I mean, there are still like many international media that
(35:32):
are are trying to do reporting on Syria, but I
think in general what I've seen it's becoming more limited,
and it's mostly based on for instance, the Serum Observatory
for Human Rights. Yes, so the same Observatory for Human Rights.
It's a good source. They have a page in English
and Arabic, although sometimes they are the English pages are
a bit difficult to follow for people if they don't
know the background of the conflict because it's more written
(35:53):
for locals.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
And then also you have, for instance, there's there's a
civil side organization that focus on human rights abuses.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
I think it's called Seriance for Justice.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
They are very good reports on the situation, but it's
a bit slow because it's not like twenty four hours.
I mean it's like they're doing investigative reports on abuses
by all sides of the.
Speaker 3 (36:16):
Ceriin civil conflict.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Yeah, so Joheral, I think it is very grud and
also like telegram, I mean a lot of these different
groups they have telegram channels where they post the latest updates,
but of course all of them are quite biased, but
bias you will get anyway in such a conflict as
in over the war.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
So yeah, everyone's biased to a degree. You will see
dead people a lot if if you go following telegram
channels to the Cerian Civil war. So if that's not
something you'd like to see, that's probably not platform to
be on Big Death.
Speaker 4 (36:49):
Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 1 (36:50):
I know it's late with you, and we'll let you
get to sleep, and we do appreciate you joining us,
and hopefully people will follow you on Twitter and and
get good information about what's happening.
Speaker 3 (36:58):
You're welcome.
Speaker 5 (37:02):
It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
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now find sources for It could Happen Here, listed directly
in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.
Also media. Okay, hi everyone, and welcome to it could
happen here today. We're very lucky to be joined by
Vladimir von Bildenberg, who's an underground journalist who covers Syria,
and Curtis Dan has written two books, including one on
the alliance between the SDF and the Coalition. Is that
is that a fair introduction in Vladimir, Yeah, okay, thank you,
(00:27):
thank you so much for joining us. There has obviously
been a massive increase, in a massive change in the
conflict in Syria in the last week or so, just
under a week, and I think the information that's available
to people is often very bad, very delayed, or one
side or rather putting out propaganda things which mischaracterized the
(00:47):
situation on the ground, especially with regard to the Syrian
National Army, who we're going to talk about. Would you
mind giving us a sort of very brief explanation of
what has happened since last Wednesday when HTS, who will
have to explain later, launch their operation against Aleppo.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Well, in general, I mean the current situation Aleppo came
to a surprise too many many people didn't expect it.
So just after the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Hayata te Rocham,
which is an offshoot of al Qaeda. So they said
they don't have relations with al Qaida anymore. They split
off from al Qaeda. They launched a big operation in
(01:28):
Aleppo against the Serian government or the same regime, whatever
you want to call it. I think initially they didn't
think that they would go so far, all the way
into Alappo city. There have been agreements between Russia, Iran,
and Turkey and Syria in Astana about the deconflection zone
(01:49):
in the northwestern province of Italy. So the HTS insurgents,
they claim they launched this operation towards Aleppo in response
to violation of this Astana agreement. So according to that agreement,
this area will be in control of the HDS and
the other area will be control of the regime and
they wouldn't bother each other. But this agreement was never
really implemented, I mean versus Russia. They were constantly bombing it.
(02:13):
Sometimes the HTS would attack regime positions. Also according to
this deconfliction zone, actually the Serian government and reining back
armed groups they went actually in that the deconfliction zone
was supposed to be controlled by the Seerian insurgents. So
they launched this operation in response to the they say
the violations by the Serian government, and I think because
(02:35):
when they realized that the defenses of the Serian government
very weak, they pushed further into Aleppo and it was
not really planned to take the city of Aleppo, although
there's also a video of Jiulani, the leader of HDS,
saying that my brothers, one day we're going to be
an Aleppo. So maybe it was planned. We don't know
really for sure, but the fact is that the Syrian
(02:55):
government defenses collapsed, and for some people in the reg
that was sort of reminded of the days of Mussol
when the Iraqi army they fled Mussol in twenty thirteen fourteen,
and then Isis took over, although the ht has really
denied that they are similar to ISIS, although they have
a similar Islamish ideology. So they took the city of
(03:17):
Aleppo in three days, and they have been trying to
go up towards Hama, a city more up. So far
they haven't been able to take the city. And on
the other hand, you also have another group called the
Seran National Army, which is groups composed of basic groups
that were supported by the Turkish government. They also started
to move. They also started to carry out operations against
(03:41):
Kurdish lad Forces also known as the Cerrian Democratic Forces.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Of the YPG.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
And also they started to do operations against the Syrian
government in above Albab and also in northern Aleppo. And
they took also several towns in northern Aleppo. And also they.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Advanced and I think their main reach of that.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
So while the HDS is primarily mostly fighting against the
Syrian government, I think the Serian National Army, because it's
back by Turkey, they also have an interest to undermine
the Syrian Democratic Forces because Turkey in the past they
have said they don't want to have a second Kurdish
autonomous region in the region, because you have already won
in Iraq, which was became recognized after the fall of
(04:23):
the damp, So you have a Kurdistan region in Iraq,
and Turkey was sort of afraid to have a second
Kurdistan region in Syria, especially because it's created by a
group which has ideological.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Affiliation with the pik Ak with.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
They followed the idology of the imprisoned leader of the
pik A k Abdulachalan, which Turkey sees is.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
A terrorist organization.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
So it's very complex, which we always keep saying about Syria,
but you basically have two different operations. You have the
Turkish back groups that are trying to stop the Kurts
from linking up with Aleppo, and then you have the HDS,
the Islamist groups that are trying to go up and
they already took Aleapo and they also took many areas
(05:03):
in the countryside of Hama, and actually they now control
all of province. So in the past the certain government
they control some parts of lip but now they control
the it's as they control all of Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
So I think if we start by looking, I think
most people who listen to this will be familiar with
the SDF, with the Autonomous Administration in North East Syria,
and with the ri Java Revolution, and they'll be wondering.
Kind of the question I get mostly is like how
does this impact that? That's what people are asking. So
(05:38):
with that in mind, I think we should explain. Perhaps
we've talked before in this show about Operation Piece Spring,
Euphretty Shield and these Turkish incursions into previously SDF controlled
areas and the genocide or violence that accompanied that, or
ethnic cleansing, however you want to phrase it. Can you
explain what's happened in the areas where they have advanced
(06:01):
and like what that's meant for the Kurdish people who
lived there or in some cases are still there.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Yeah, in the in the northern Aleppo and Aleppo City,
so you have two Kurdish neighborhoods called Ashrafiya and Chech Maksut.
There are around one hundred to two hundred thousand people
living there. Then you have also two small Kurdish towns
called Tel Aran and Tel Hassel, which have changed hands
constantly during the Serian Civil War between the YPG, the
(06:27):
Syrian government and Iran, then by the rebels done by
ISIS than by al Kaida, like it was a big messah.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Then you have also you have like Kurts.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
That were displaced from Afrine because Turkey they carried out
an operation against the YPG in twenty eighteen. So you
have thousands of Kurts that left Afrine. So the statistics
are a bit unclear, but at least there were around
ten thousand IDPs living in camps in northern Aleppo, and
you also have people living outside of the camp, so
the statistics are always a bit unclear, but it's they
(07:00):
now say that they were around ten thousand families that
were displaced, so they were already displaced from Afrine before.
And there's this town of Tara Aphad, which has been
a strategic location in Aleppo because it was sort of
like opening up the way to Aleppo City and the
Kurdish back forces they took actually this town with Russian
(07:22):
support from the Turkish back rebels, so they had like
grievances about this town, but Turkey even during the Afrine
operation they didn't get the green light to take this
town from the Kurkish back groups. Also, the Syrian government
was there by the way after dreamings, so this town
always was like a focal point of contention between the
(07:43):
Kurts and the Syrian insurgents. So what happened after HCS
took Aleppo the Syrian National Army with the backing of Turkey,
they moved on towards Teara Lapad. And also because in
the past there was more balance in Aleppo because you
have also two small towns called Mumble and Zahara.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
They were like prominently.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Inhabited by people from the Shia religion, so there were
Iranian back groups there and they were in the back
of Telarafad, so they were sort of as a balance.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
So they sort of like the curves, were.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Able to hold out in Tarapad despite like many offensive
by the Turkish back groups. So what happened because of
basically all the Syrian government, they were removed from Aleppo
and as a result, like they were very weakend and
completely isolated. I mean until now there's Kurtish forces in
Astrophia and Czech Masud, but they're completely surrounded and embargoed
(08:35):
by the HTS, which is not something new because before
this conflict, this new renewed conflict in Aleppo, the Syrian
government was also imposing embargoes on those two neighborhoods, not
allowing food and topping electricity and bothering people at checkpoints
because they had like always issues with the Kurtish led
forces because they're sort of in the Syrian Civil War,
(08:56):
they have always played sort of a third role, like
they want to have their autonomy. Then you have the
Shiran armed groups. They are trying to topple the Syrian government,
and then you had the Syrian government trying to stop
this from happening. And then yeah, the Kurtish led forces
were trying to create the autonomous administration and they got
some support from the US in the fight against ISIS
(09:16):
since the Battle of Kovaniyah. So yeah, this is like
the situation a lepos. So now what happened is that
thea fat were in twenty sixteen, the Parabs of Telfa,
they fled actually this after as the FYPG took this down.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
So now the Seen rebels they took this down, and.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
This time that the people that fled from after into
these towns that they were living around four or five
six IDP camps there, they were forced to flee. So
the Kurdish groups they were like trying to resist the
SNA advances, but they were not able to resist them
because they were completely surrounded because as I mentioned, Nobel
and Zaka fell, so they were like completely pinched from
(09:54):
all sides.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
But before they had always like.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Nobble and Zaha behind them, so they could not not
be completely surrounded. But this time they were completely surrounded.
They were forced to leave there or not able to
continue the fight. So I think there was like a
de facto deal or something, because you saw like convoys
with actually with fighters with weapons and armed hunvis. They
were like being escorted two checkpoints and they were allowed
to cross the ward. Sabka actually a town in northeast area.
(10:19):
And maybe most likely the US they were involved in
the sort of de facto deal and Turkey, but so
far the US they haven't comment on that, but most
likely there was sort of a deal for the forces
in Tarafa to leave with the civilians and they're now
hosted in camps, in displacement camps in the town of Tabka.
And then there are still Kurts living as I mentioned
(10:40):
in Ashtraphia and Chef Masuda to big neighborhoods in Aleppo.
And then you have also two small Kurdish towns around
thel Hassa which are now controlled by the year National
Army the Turkish back groups, so the hyattas their local administration.
They offered the deal to the Kurdish fighters. They said,
you can leave these two curt neighborhoods and Aleppo without
(11:01):
any issues, and the Curs that are living there, we
respect them and they can stay there.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
But the Kurdish fighters, they have to leave.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
But then there was a statement i think yesterday by
the leader of the SEF, the Muslim Ubdi. He was
saying like we were forced to evacuate the people because
we were trying to create a corridor between these Kurtish
enclaves in Aleppo with the rest of North East area,
because they are like Turkish backed rebels in the certain
government in between trying to trying to make a corridor.
(11:29):
So they said this corridor was actually was broken and
they were forced to evacuate. But he said that the
Kurtish forces were still in Aleppo resisting. So it seems
that the YPG didn't completely follow this offer of the HS.
But of course we don't know if there was maybe
a backdoor deal with the HTS to allow first people
in northern Aleapo to leave and then maybe in a
(11:50):
later phase that they will also leave Aleppo because they
are there in a quite difficult situation.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
Yeah, a very difficult situation.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
But they're now accused by the rebels that there are
position snipers in Aleppo, and then they are still a
Leppo but they never left Czech Masud and Astrapia, and
but I also talked to people. They're saying that civilians
they were offered in Czech Masud and Astrapia to leave
that area if they wanted to leave, so they were
not forced to leave, that they had the option opportunity
(12:16):
to leave that area if they wanted. But then the
buses didn't show up and they didn't leave, because I mean,
they need only not only evacuated Kurdish civilians from northern Lepo,
but I think they also evacuated the Shia population of
Dubo Zakha. There were sometimes also that they were also
evacuated to north east Ayria because they don't feel safe
for their lives if those rebels take those areas.
Speaker 4 (12:39):
Yeah, and they are still there.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
They don't want to be captured by the rebels and
used as hostages or so most likely they left with
the Kurts to north east Syria and what will happen
to them. They probably go to Iraq or to other
areas in Syria.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
Yeah, you meet like in Northeast Aria, you meet sometimes
like either former ratime soldiers or people who have left
regime areas and like they've made their lives there. So
(13:14):
now we have this situation right where, yeah, we have
these two little islands. We'll just call them YPG for
the ease of to not introduce another acronym, right of
like a Kurdish armed folks in Aleppo. To complicate this further,
and people will probably have seen this, I want to
explain it. In the Rezor, we have a different situation, right,
(13:36):
we have their the SDF attacking Iranian back relicious and
the regime. Do you feel comfortable explaining what's going on
in Darrisora where that's a different calculus.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So since former president or the incoming president Donald Trump
when he pulled out troops from Syria in twenty nineteen
when Turkey did an offensive against the Curbs and Talabas
in the US, they left, but then there was so
much criticism from both Democrats and Republicans that he was
forced to come back. So until now, there are still
(14:08):
nine hundred Jewish troops in Detozor Province and in Husska Province,
which is actually not a lot because if you look
to for instance, South Korea, there are thousands of troops
in South Korea and in other places, so it's not
very a lot. But in the US discussions it's always
discussed all we have troops in Syria, but actually compared
to other countries is not a very big number.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Nine hundred people, no, not unto very small footprint.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
So they have this small footprint in Detzor and Hassaka
and they basically they worked with the Kurtish led forces
since the Battle of Kobani to basically defeat the Isis
Kelephate because it was a threat to European security and
US security and they were trying to carry out attacks
in Europe, and there were many attacks in Europe and
when civilians were killed.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
So yeah, Ani Isis fight.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
This is one of the reasons actually why the Kurtish
led forces they were forced to go to Detozor because
it was their last bastion in twenty nineteen when they
defeated the territorial Caliphate of Isis. So since there you
have this the SEF there and they have their own
administration in the Azora and they have like local forces
and Arabs that joined them in the fight against sizes.
(15:13):
So what happened that in the last few years, in
the last one or two years, there have been attempts
by the Syrian government and Iranian back groups basically to
recruit Arab tribes to fight against the SDF, So there
have been several skirmishes and battles since that time. After
also the SDF they arrested a commander of them that
they thought he was like going to portrade them. So
(15:36):
since that time, there were like several skirmishes between these
milasis that are calling themselves the tribal army or something
in that regard. And then you have the SCF, so
you had like fights between the Iranian back groups.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
And the SDF.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
And recently with all the changes in Syria, there were
a number of villages around seven six villages that were
actually Russian army.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
Was based in those villages.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
It was like the line sort of dividing the US
back as theF forces and the Syrian government forces. And
there's also a river, but those villages they were like
in front of the river, so the river is sort
of naturally dividing the areas between the SDF and and
the Syrian government. But there were like still a number
of villages that were not on that line, and actually
there were Russian troops based in that villages. Yeah, but
(16:23):
with the whole crisis with Aleppo and the fight now
between the HCS and the Syrian government in Hannah, the
Russians they moved out from those villages, so those villages
that actually are almost empty, there is nothing there.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
So during this.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Situation they a s UF they just moved in those
villages and there was actually not so much fighting, although
on the social media I see that all there's fighting
and this kind of stuff. So there was some over
these like the last one or two years, they have
been heavy fighting between the SDF and Reign Impact Groups,
but in these villages not so much because it was
just empty villages and they just took them over and
(17:01):
there was no one there.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Yeah, okay, So that leaves us with like I guess
an e s getting a little bit larger in the
south and the smaller in the west.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Yeah, very much smaller in the west.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
And it's even not clear if they can keep their
presence in Aleppo because I mean, Chef Marsuten Aspia is
now completely surrounded by the HDS, and it seems that
the HDS they have been a little bit softer with
the SDF and YPG than the SNA because the SNA,
I mean, they have their issues because they're also backed
by the Turkish government and the Turkish government. They always
(17:37):
said their policy is basically to stop the SDF from
treating autonomous area, and they also said the SDF is
linked to the PIKK, although the SDF they deny links
to the PIKK, although they don't deny their idological affiliation.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
With the prison pick A k here. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
So Turkey always said that they are feeling threatened, and
they have always claimed that attacks were planned on Turkey
from northeast Asyria, from Java on on on Turkey. Yeah,
THEFF deny that. I think there was also there was
not so a long time ago. There was also an
attack in Ankara, and Turkey also claimed that it was
a carry planned from British cities in Syria.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Yeah, so that's that's like the situation.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
Yeah, they gives Yeah, they give us a pretty good
summary of the situation.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
I think.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
So let's talk about HTS a bit, because I think
you're going to see one of two things. Right when
we talk about the SNA and HDS, A lot of
outlets will just collapse them under the same descriptor they
will just say Syrian rebels, and I think people will
think of the original largely secular uprising in Syria in
twenty eleven, and if they have not been paying attention,
(18:55):
they'll realize that ISIS has been and gone. But they'll think, oh,
these must be the same guys. These are not the
same guys, but some of them maybe the same guys
who are originally part of Jiulani was originally sent there
by a back daddy way back to be part of ISIS.
But these are not the secular rebels who originally rose
up in Syria. And so can you explain, like, HTS
(19:16):
has this very interesting kind of legitimacy project right, like
it's trying to build a pseudo state and present like
a kind of gentler Jihadism. I don't know how to
say it, but can you explain a little bit of
this transformation of HTS and what you make of it.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
I mean, as you mentioned that Julani, the current leader
of the HS, he was sent by at that time
I think it was Al Kaida are the Islamic State
of Iraq, and yeah, use area basically to establish like
but at that time there was no ISIS yet I
think so. So later basically he refused to budge allegiance
(19:54):
and he basically did his own thing. He created Jabalta Nostra,
which was the affiliate of al KaiA. But then he
decided to basically split from al Qaeda and he announced
like the links to I think at that time that
leader was Zawahiri, but I'm not sure. So he basically
split from al Qaeda. And you still have a split
(20:14):
off group from al Qaeda in Itlyp. It's called h
Russell Din, which they actually they had issues with. They
had some problems with them. So HDS, although Isis territory
was defeated twenty nineteen, the HTS or they basically with
all the creates in Syria because I mean they have
been fighting out for all the problems between the Serian
(20:36):
government and different armed groups. They managed to sort of
cementa crowd throw in the province of lip and they
created their own little administration there. But despite that, they
say that we don't have any links to al Qaeda.
I mean, they're still listed by for instance, the US
as a terrorist organization.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Yeah, there's a ten million dollar bounty on Julani still, right,
they just never took it away from Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
So I mean it seems that the US doesn't believe
this moderation idea that the HS tries to show them
more moderately. But my idea of the HS, it's more
like a sort of a lighter, softer version of ices.
I mean, they're not like ices that they're gonna broadcast
people being blown up or beheaded on the film screen.
It's just that they do it in the back of
(21:18):
the screen. I mean, there's people being executed according to
the Islamic Shadia a lot.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
There are people being imprisoned.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
I mean you also had protests, actually it left against
Jolani that they were actually opposed to the authoritarian rule.
And I think then you have separate from the sort
of the Islamic Islamics, which you can actually sort of
compare to the Taliban. Yes, I think that's a good comparison, Yes,
to the Taliban. And also I think Taliban they have
some relationhops actually the HS, and they also congratulated the
(21:47):
HTS after they took control of Aleppo, so sort of
it's like a Taliban rual, though of course Taliban is
very different contacts related to Syria culture and Afghan culture,
so it's different, of course, but are both yes, Islamist
projects with a national project at the same time, so
it's Islamist project for Syria and the Taliban have an
Islamist project for Afghanistan, although you also have Pakistani Taliban
(22:10):
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Yeah, so it's not.
Speaker 2 (22:13):
Like a transnational jihad, but you can call it like
a national jihad maybe.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
I think that's the crucial difference, right at least for
the US, like that makes them kind of more amenable
than than ISIS or even Al kaider Is that.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Yeah, they have this nationally contained Jahadi vision.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
So they don't do attacks in Europe or in the US.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
But of course there are several groups in ITLAB that
are sort of falling under the control of HDS that
are possibly could do external attacks, et cetera. And apart
from that, you have the Syrian National Army. So the
Syrian National Army, it's like a mix of different groups.
As you mentioned in the beginning of the series Civil War,
you had the Phisian Army, but then the Freezeran Army.
(22:55):
They split in several groups. I mean some like linked
to Muslim brotherhoods, some linked to Turkmen groups, other groups,
secular groups, et cetera. So all these groups that were
basically fighting in different provinces, they were all gathered because Turkey.
They did several Turkish military did several operations in twenty
sixteen in northern Syria with the main aim is to
(23:18):
stop the YPG from linking up the Kurdish enclaves on
the border with Turkey. So they did I think the
first one I was Euphrad Shield. Then they had I
think Operation All of Brands in Afrin in twenty.
Speaker 4 (23:31):
Eighteen, incredible names.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Then I think the last operation account recalled was in
twenty nineteen when they took Telaviat and Serkania from the
Kurtish Laud forces the YPGSDA. So they had these three operations.
And these groups are sort of a mixed as I mentioned,
a different groups with also different ideologies. Some are more
Turkmen in nature, some of them are more Islamist in nature.
(23:57):
Some of them are like sort of leftovers from secular
groups that USIFI. Some of them even they in the
past they received support from the US from the CIA
against the Seian regimes. So some of them they receive support.
And this is like a sort of umbrella of self organizations.
So HDS is one group and they control also other
groups in but it's one group. But the SNA there
(24:19):
are like a lot of different groups, and they also
have been fighting each other several times in areas and
Turkish control.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
So this is very.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Different and there are more sectarian in nature, let's say more.
I mean, they have also been less under control than
the HTS in the way that there have been a
lot of kidnappings for ransom, a lot of like sexual
violence against woman and rape. This is all documented by
self organizations, Juan organizations. They also have child soldiers, so
(24:48):
they have different kinds of issues, and but they have
been more accused of like more sort of gang style
of activity, and that's why. Also some of them they
were sanctioned by the US and also some of them
they have integrated like former IIS fighters in their ranks.
And you also have like you have some groups that
are frondos or the other are originally for instance from
(25:10):
the area around Mato or Aza. Some of them they
kid they were displaced from Gutta, so a lot of
them there. Also they came because the Serian government they
advanced with Russian support, and then these groups were brought
by buses to the areas under Turkish control. Yeah, so
these areas became a sort of like maybe it's a
bad word or sort of a dumping ground for all
these Syrian rebel groups that were not completely defeated but
(25:33):
displaced by Syrian government and offenses with the Russian support.
So I mean before they were an Aleppo and homes
and Hamma and Damascats in all this group they were
moved with buses through agreements between around Turkey, Russia and
Syria to northern Syria to it and now these groups
they are coming back because they were never completely defeated.
(25:55):
I mean, they had their own administration. So the Serian
National Army they fall under are the Turkish back the
Cerian opposition I think they call it the Serian National
Coalition or in Arabic the ital AF. So they have
their own interim government administration in THEIRS on the Turkish control,
and then you have the Salvation government under the Ahso
the are t two different administrations. And they also doesn't
(26:18):
mean that they agree with so, so just calling them
the rebels it's a little bit like, yeah, it doesn't
really doesn't fit to the reality. But of course you
also have to deal with the fact that for media,
if they want to explain complex situations to a general public,
it's very difficult to just say, Okay, you have this acronym,
(26:38):
and you have this acronym, and you have the White
and the HS and the SNA, so people they.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
Will lose their interest.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
So that's why it always becomes sort of this black
and white. So, oh, you have the Syrian insurgence and
then you have the Serian government, and then it's already
complex enough to also add Kurts to the mix.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
So they also, of course often the Turkish government.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
They got very angry that the media keeps calling the
YPG the Curse, because oh, they don't represent the curse.
But you can't say that with any group in Syria
or anywhere in the world. I mean, I mean you
have in Americans, you have different political parties. You have
different parties in Syria, you have different parties in Turkey.
So these groups don't represent all the Syrians, or all
the Arabs, or all the Kurts or all the Allwais.
(27:18):
There are always different political factions and that's what it
makes so complicated in Syria because a lot of these
based groups got fragmented. But actually with versus the support
of Turkey, they actually united on the one umbrella, which
is called the Syrian National Army, and then of course
even on the Syrian government side, there's many different groups.
I mean you have you have Iranian back armed groups,
(27:38):
you have groups from Lebanon that are helping the Hezbola
alban says Bola. Then you have Iraqi Iranian back groups
that are supporting Syrian government. Then you have also Shias
that were recruited from Afghanistan. And then also in the
Syrian government security structure, I mean, in the past there
was no room for malicious but they have, for instance,
the NDF, which is sort of like a Syrian government
backed militia which even some times part with the Syrian
(28:01):
government itself when they tried to become become more too
much powerful, sort of like what you haven't Wagner in
Russia that we try to challenge the Russian government and
then they got third bailed. So it's like even with
a certain sort of the forces back in the Cerian army,
it's not like so simple. It's also not you have
just a Serian army that's it. You have also different
kinds of militia, some supported by Iran, some supported by Russia,
(28:25):
that are backing the Serian government.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
Yeah, everyone wants. I think Ukraine has really reinforced this.
They want war to be like colors on a map
and a front line, and the front line moves and
that's you know, and that's just not how like oftentimes
there's little lines on a map will be in reality,
it's people driving around and pick up trucks with dishcas
in the back, wondering where the other guys are and
(28:47):
what's going on. You know. It's not like Ukraine, where
you have trenches and people firing each other from trench
lines to gradually move. And as much as it would
be easy to have modelists, we just don't.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
In Syria.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
Yeah, I mean, sorry, it's different because if it's more
there are more religious and ethnic groups done in Ukraine.
I mean Ucrime is you have the the Ukrainians and
the Russians, and I mean you also have people speaking
Russian in other areas of Ukraine. But it's where it's
much more complex in in in Syria. Althoio obviously also
have different groups fighting in Ukraine, but in Syria it's
(29:19):
a bit more complex and it's difficult for the media
to get a grip on that without like you know,
like trying to also explain to a normal reader of
what is going on in Syria.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
But also in.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
General you have all this international media that are cutting
down costs and they're closing there for and bureaus. So
also I mean the money for like extensive reporting in
Syria is also getting less or in general in internationally speaking, yes,
and then you have another problem is that you have
the problem of access in Syria. So if you are
wanted to go to the same government area is very
(29:52):
difficult because if you have reported in Syrian rebel areas,
the same government is not going to give you a visa.
You have to be like very pro Serian government if
you go to the areas under rebel control to be honest, like,
it's very difficult for any journalists to go to HDS
areas or the Eran National Army area.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
So even if a journalist wants.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
To report positively about the rebels, it's very difficult. Then
they have like a press adcutation in Turkey and they
have to cross the boarders very complicated, so there's barely
in very rare cases journalists going into northwest Aria and
then with the Kurdish controlled areas, if you can call
them like that, like Northeast area, it's a bit easier.
(30:31):
I mean, there are people flying to Iraqi, Curtistan and
then they can get like a permission from the Kurdish authorities.
They're in Iraqi, Curtistan and then they can cross the border.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
So it's a bit easier.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
But the number of journals going there is very limited,
and most of the interests actually of the Western media
was not so much about the cern conflict. It was
more about this Western ISIS woman and ISIS fighters that
were jailed or held in camps in Northeast area. So
most of the focus of Western media was most of
the time, okay, what's happening in the whole camp, because
(31:04):
you have thousands of ISIS families there or in verses
in the prison. So, I mean, the American journals were
interested in US DOAH fighters, and the Dutch were interested
in Dutch ISIS families are fighters, and the same for
many other countries.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Yeah, the British media is terrible for that. They'll go
to Northeast Syria and then talk about Northeast Syria and
this our whole just exists as kind of a bubble
outside of context in that reporting.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, they just talk about Shamima Begoon and she became
sort of a celebrity in the UK. Yeah, although I
think even on that actress nowadays it's like very limited
because a lot of these zero countries in the UK,
they have their own domestic issues. So also in general,
the interesting in Syria has gone down a lot, and
I think also with this current conflict and Aleppo, it
(31:48):
will get some intention in the media for a few days,
but at some point it's.
Speaker 4 (31:51):
Gonna go down again, yes, of course, and.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Maybe there will be conflicts and other parts of the
world again, So I think at some point also this
media attention, the media attention for Sir already was like
very low unless it's gonna affect Europe in a large
extent because it could also create new waves of refugees
trying to go to Europe. Yeah, there's many people that
were displaced.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
Again.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
It was a very nice post on X by one
Journeys from I think a Saudi outlet, and he was
saying it's very sad to see. He was basically saying
like at any moment, our people can be displaced at
any time, or can.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
Be displaced again.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
So that's like sort of the life of Syrians that
live in these different like front lines, like anytime they
can displace, like the people are Traffee, they were displaced
in twenty eighteen and now twenty twenty four they were
displaced again. And then you have people displaced by the
Syrian government living in the houses of kurts in Afrine
and they're also victims of this conflict. So yeah, so
(32:50):
it's a very complicated situation, people being displaced, moving in
the houses of displaced, and the displace living in other
people houses that are also displaced. So it's like a
very cynical and sad situation.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
Yeah, and a very very difficult one for civilians. And certainly,
like with the changing government in the US, I mean,
it seems unlikely that we will be reaching out to
help those those displaced civilians in the in the near future.
And certainly we've seen a lot of Kurdish people who
have been displaced either by Turkish aggression or who there's
a whole other situation with the Kurdish areas in Turkey
(33:27):
at the moment and their elections and such which we
don't have time to go into. But many of them
have come to the US and I've interviewed lots of
them for this show, so we've I think people will
be familiar with that, right, I mean, I think that's
probably about all we have time for.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
But I wanted to offer you a chance.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
You have very good tweets, you have a very good
understanding of the whole situation. You have your articles do
an excellent job of making it understandable. So where can
people find your writing and follow you?
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Well?
Speaker 2 (33:53):
I mean, I you can find my tweets on my
personal Twitter page which is my name is blotting me
for Blberg at x Vivan Wrockenberg. And also I write
for different outlets and think tanks like First As, I
write for Middle Least im from the Washington Institute. Also
I've been writing some pieces for Carnegie. So yeah, I've
(34:16):
mean if we're writing for several places on the current situation. Yeah,
and sometimes Side to Interview, Side talked on BBC a
few times on the situation and Aduchavella. So you can
find my work on my Twitter profile. Always post my
articles there and yeah.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
Yep, that's great.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Is there anything else you'd like to maybe suggest that
people follow. I think it could be really easy to
get a lot of propaganda when it comes to two, sirius,
So I think you'd suggest that people kind of get
their news from.
Speaker 2 (34:48):
Well, I mean, I think in general x is still
like a good platform. It has been from the beginning
of the series Civil War, although of course you have
different accounts with different views supporting different facts. So it's
always good to verify any videos posted, although it's like
more difficult to very five videos than the pictures. But
it's always good to verify locations and the background of
(35:11):
people that are posting stuff. And then also I think
it's very interesting and good to follow the maps of
the Serian Civil War because you have several places where
they published maps of the civil war, so it's easier
to follow it on the map than buy tweets or
posts on eggs. But I think in general, I mean,
I mean, there are still like many international media that
(35:32):
are are trying to do reporting on Syria, but I
think in general what I've seen it's becoming more limited,
and it's mostly based on for instance, the Serum Observatory
for Human Rights. Yes, so the same Observatory for Human Rights.
It's a good source. They have a page in English
and Arabic, although sometimes they are the English pages are
a bit difficult to follow for people if they don't
know the background of the conflict because it's more written
(35:53):
for locals.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
And then also you have, for instance, there's there's a
civil side organization that focus on human rights abuses.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
I think it's called Seriance for Justice.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
They are very good reports on the situation, but it's
a bit slow because it's not like twenty four hours.
I mean it's like they're doing investigative reports on abuses
by all sides of the.
Speaker 3 (36:16):
Ceriin civil conflict.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Yeah, so Joheral, I think it is very grud and
also like telegram, I mean a lot of these different
groups they have telegram channels where they post the latest updates,
but of course all of them are quite biased, but
bias you will get anyway in such a conflict as
in over the war.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
So yeah, everyone's biased to a degree. You will see
dead people a lot if if you go following telegram
channels to the Cerian Civil war. So if that's not
something you'd like to see, that's probably not platform to
be on Big Death.
Speaker 4 (36:49):
Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 1 (36:50):
I know it's late with you, and we'll let you
get to sleep, and we do appreciate you joining us,
and hopefully people will follow you on Twitter and and
get good information about what's happening.
Speaker 3 (36:58):
You're welcome.
Speaker 5 (37:02):
It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
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