NAB Morning Call
Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Episodes
Monday 29th April 2024
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The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could al...
Friday 26th April 2024
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Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy...
Wednesday 24th April 2024
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Is stagflation on the horizon for America? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed doubl...
Wednesday 24th April 2024
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PMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europ...
Tuesday 23rd April 2024
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The force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Ba...
Monday 22nd April 2024
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The magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Euro...
Friday 19th April 2024
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This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europe’s a little lower. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist ...
Friday 19th April 2024
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Fed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested he’d entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. That’s coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterday’s emp...
Thursday 18th April 2024
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Markets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping the need to impose ...
Wednesday 17th April 2024
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There’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might...
Tuesday 16th April 2024
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The latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by m...
Monday 15th April 2024
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How markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there hasn’t been much resp...
Friday 12th April 2024
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Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, ...
Friday 12th April 2024
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Christine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanw...
Thursday 11th April 2024
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US inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Master...
Wednesday 10th April 2024
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US CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss y...
Tuesday 9th April 2024
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10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs...
Monday 8th April 2024
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US non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. He says, surely they’d be happy ...
Friday 5th April 2024
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China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country steeped in debt, with large scal...
Friday 5th April 2024
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The latest building approvals for Australia show just how bad the housing situation is becoming. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a structural problem that adds to the difficulties the RBA faces in slowing inflation. He talks through the latest NAB forecasts for CPI ahead of the next release later this mo...
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