The OUTThinking Investor
When the future becomes increasingly uncertain, investors need to cut through the noise and think beyond the obvious answers. In season three of The OUTThinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM, global thought leaders and PGIM experts will bring their unique perspectives for the year ahead and beyond. Is inflation finally on the retreat? Can labor markets withstand an economic slowdown and demographic headwinds? Will the tense geopolitical climate ease or escalate? What is the outlook for interest rates after the rapid hikes of 2022? Join host Toby Ricketts as we reexamine the past, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities in global capital markets — to help you spot opportunities when markets are stressed and uncover risks when markets are rising.
Episodes
From the polls to prediction markets, market participants must look beyond conventional wisdom to identify investable signals across elections, fiscal policy, trade, and regulation. Market implications from the U.S. midterm elections could be profound for the pace of America's data center buildout, the intensity of risk from foreign policy and tariffs, and the possibility of a debt ceiling impasse in 2027.
AI has the potential to bring a host of benefits to society and the global economy. It has fueled optimism around productivity, disinflation, and debt sustainability. But like many innovations that came before it, AI also brings a new set of challenges. The same technology that might boost economic growth and lift people out of poverty could also serve as a tool for cyberwarfare and fraud. Using AI, digital cri...
Adam Smith introduced his concept of the "invisible hand" in the 18th century, offering a metaphor for how self-interest and competition guide a free-market economy. The case could be made that government policy is an increasingly crucial force in shaping markets today, particularly amid heightened geoeconomic competition and a resurgence in industrial policy. In this way, individuals and entities in both the p...
The AI-driven capex cycle might be the biggest investment story of the past century. The five largest hyperscalers were on track to spend around $800 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, and as a share of U.S. GDP, AI capex has already eclipsed the dot-com boom of the 1990s. Chips are at the center of the AI frenzy – the same chips that also guide precision munitions and power satellite communications. I...
In an era of AI, data centers and electrification, rising power demand presents a range of challenges and investment opportunities across the energy sector. Bottlenecks in the supply chain, such as the backlog in gas turbine production, have grabbed headlines while the power-hungry digital infrastructure buildout lifts energy consumption. With the grid increasingly strained, commercial-grade fusion power is one...
The arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve marked a regime shift. At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dropped its easing bias, opening the door to interest rate hikes as supply shocks collide with hotter demand. The Fed also announced five new task forces to evaluate key priorities, from inflation frameworks to AI's impact on productivity and the labor market. Under War...
The military concept of escalation dominance posits that the side controlling the pace and pain of a conflict determines the outcome. For most of the Cold War era, the U.S. had escalation dominance—militarily, technologically, and economically—but the use of economic statecraft was limited. That era is over. As great power competition intensifies, the relationship between the U.S. and China offers a...
Global conflicts are increasingly playing out in the economic arena, not just on the battlefield. The war in Iran represents a collision of both. Physical and financial chokepoints can be used for strategic leverage; they also raise potential vulnerabilities. To unpack how and why economic warfare is reshaping the macro landscape, Daleep Singh speaks with Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic...
Marc Sumerlin, Managing Partner at Evenflow Macro
Daleep welcomed Kurt for an in-depth look at the U.S.-China relationship and the Iran war's implications for Asia-Pacific. Speaking in front of a live audience, they also discussed how geopolitical shifts are reshaping economies, strategic leverage lurking in critical supply chains, and the outlook for Japan.
Daleep Singh catches up with Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Coun...
Daleep Singh welcomes Jake Sullivan, the Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at the Harvard Kennedy School and former U.S. National Security Advisor, for a conversation about the forces reshaping global power and what they mean for markets and investment strategy.
In this episode, Daleep and Jake discuss:
- Whether the world is moving t...
Markets trade on more than just economic data. They trade on geopolitics, technology, policy, and elections.
In a world searching for a new equilibrium, old assumptions are expensive mistakes. Daleep Singh, Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist at PGIM, has spent his career at the intersection of markets and policy, from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to the White House. Now, Daleep ...
Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, joins us for a special edition of The Outthinking Investor.
Dalio sat down with PGIM's George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Solutions, for a conv...
The technology industry has spent heavily on all things AI, from training large language models (LLMs) to building up the infrastructure required to meet demand. Investments across a range of sectors with exposure to the AI boom, including cloud computing, chips, data centers and the power grid, have lifted economic growth and supported financial markets through a ...
Investors might be witnessing the biggest industrial reshoring effort in
Fiscal policy shifts, from taxes to tariffs, are steering global capital and trade flows. The US, for instance, is attracting investments despite the tariff headlines—illustrating how the impact of these policies continues to evolve. In a dynamic policy environment, taxes and tariffs could...
Sir Isaac Newton was a legendary physicist and mathematician. But even the man known for developing the theory of gravity failed to time the market. It is said that after cashing in his shares of Britain's South Sea Company, Newton bought back into the stock right before it crashed. Avoiding the most common mistakes that harm portfolio returns is essential to success in today's markets, where volatility is test...
The House of Medici, which ruled over Florence for much of the Renaissance period, established a political dynasty with influence built on successful ventures in commerce and banking. The Medicis predated the concept of geoeconomic power, or governments' ability to wield economic might to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. Today, soft power might be giving way to intensifying competition between great pow...
Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today's economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a "complicated logistical dance," as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines' former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investo...
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