November 6, 2020 • 41 mins
We are finally on the other side of the 2020 presidential election and it was — as promised — unprecedented. And a big part of that is because of you! Voters from all over the country came out (and mailed in ballots) in record numbers. 2020 is projected to have the highest turnout rate of eligible voters in more than a century. In this episode of Turnout with Katie Couric, we’ll hear some of your voting stories, which capture a moment in history that will be analyzed for years to come. Then, Katie shares her conversation with political consultant Brian Goldsmith, which took place on Instagram Live starting at 6 pm EST on Nov. 6. And while the news over the next few days may change in big and small ways, Brain and Katie help put this week and the weight of what happened into context.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Yeah, leaving this message for Katie Curic. This is for
this week's episode of Turnout. I'm leaving my voting story.
We're finally on the other side of the presidential election,
and it's been, as promised, unprecedented because of highly engaged
voters like you. I live here in Rule Tennessee, just
(00:24):
outside Nashville. I'm calling you from Connecticut, Virginia, Chicago, Illinois,
and snati Ohio. You turned out in record numbers Dale,
North Carolina, Michigan, Denver, Colorado, Rooklyn, when all is said
and done, is projected to have the highest voter turnout
rate in more than a century. I'm a game mill
(00:45):
from Kentucky. I have some special health needs. I'm blind.
To live in the battleground state, I live in the suburb.
I have voted both parties in the past. My husband
and I we voted. It was great to hear for
so many of you this week who called in to
share your voting stories. This really is a moment in
(01:05):
history that will be talking about and analyzing for years
to come. I'm nineteen years old and this was my
first time voting in a presidential election. With COVID rates
on the rise, I decided to vote by mail. We
voted abstince T about two weeks ago and dropped it
off at our city clerk's box. I have a twenty
year old son who rushed home from college to get
(01:27):
his ballot in the box. I voted early this year,
back in September, three weeks ago. Two weeks ago, so
I actually voted in person, in person on my birthday.
My man ballot actually got lost in the mail. But
after ring to my local election office, I was able
to do a limited voting and there was no wait.
We were in and out within under ten minutes, simple, easy, greasy,
(01:51):
hive minutes. But the line was moving smoothly. Had to
wait in life for forty five minutes, about two hours.
I was just glad I was able to vote early
and get it out of the way. I want my
vote fatikins for a T shirt. It was an excellent experience.
Kudos to the arena and the NBA for making it happen.
As a member of a marginalized community, it was just
good to like have my vote count and my voice heard.
(02:14):
As cliche as it sounds, there's a lot of places
in my life where you know, um, I don't always
feel that way. I was able to check online tracked electronically,
so I know that my local Board of Elections has
already received my ballot. But I received a text message
from the Register of Voters the very next day confirming
that they were in receipt of my ballot. I'm good
to go and that it will be counted. It felt
(02:35):
so so great to finally be able to vote, and
especially in such a critical effection. I'm Katie Couric and
this is Turnout. It's Friday, November six and today on
the podcast a conversation I just had over Instagram Live
with Brian Goldsmith. Now Brian, many of you know, is
a really good friend of mine. We used to do
a podcast together. He worked with me at CBS, later
(02:58):
at Yahoo. He helped me enormously prepare for my Sarah
Palin interview, my infamous or famous interview, depending on your perspective,
and he's my go to guy whenever I have a
question about national politics. In fact, I tease him because
he was grounded in high school for sneaking out of
(03:19):
his room to watch c SPAN. Yeah, he's that big
of a political nerd. So I thought it would be
really instructive and helpful for us to do a post
mortem on what happened this week. And since the news
is changing so fast and furiously, we wanted you to
know that we recorded this conversation at six pm Eastern
(03:42):
Time again on Friday. So enjoy. Let's talk about the election. Okay,
so just give us a quick update. It feels like like,
when are they going to call this thing? UM? Help us.
I don't know why they haven't called it. I mean,
I think I know why, but it doesn't really make
sense because if your Fox or the A P and
(04:04):
you've already called Arizona um, Biden wins the presidency just
with Nevada. Nobody who's looked at the numbers thinks that
Nevada is going to flip back to Trump. So with
Nevada and Arizona, Biden hits to seventy. You know that's it.
Game over, Fat Ladies, etcetera. Okay, if you're all the
(04:26):
other networks you haven't called Arizona UM. Take a look
at Pennsylvania, where Biden's lead is pretty substantial and is
getting bigger, not smaller. Now, is there like an insane
scenario with provisional ballots? UM? Contradicting, you know, the historic
(04:49):
patterns of previous provisional ballots, contradicting the counties from which
they came. Yes, I mean I also could be struck
by lightning right here, right now. That is receivably possible.
But Biden's gonna win Pennsylvania. And once you've accepted that,
you know, you get over to seventy even under the
(05:10):
count that ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN are keeping. And
that way. Sorry to interrupt Bryant, but Arizona, it seems
I haven't really looked at it in the last hour.
I went to the grocery store instead. Arizona is it
seems like it's tightening up? Um, isn't it a little bit?
And I guess maybe in the event that Arizona gets
(05:33):
too close to call Um that's why maybe the networks,
as you said, are waiting for Pennsylvania. So, but he
doesn't need Arizona. So even if you were to assume no,
I know, he doesn't need Arizona. But what I'm saying
is maybe they're waiting for Pennsylvania, where he has a
more sizeable lead. Since they didn't call Arizona and not
(05:53):
that Arizona. I don't know. Is Arizona a little up
for grabs? I don't think so. I mean, everybody, say,
is who's looked at this has said that, you know,
Biden's lead may narrow a bit. It's I mean, it's
over one point now, it's one point three percent um,
and it may shrink a little bit. But I don't
think anyone expects Trump to overtake Biden in Arizona. But okay,
(06:17):
so let's but then even if you take even if
you say Arizona is too uncertain, And that's why NBCCBS, ABC,
CNN have not called Arizona. You don't. You know, you
go over here to Pennsylvania and Biden's lead is about
fourteen thousand votes and growing, and then you know, okay,
I'm gonna dip down into that. You know where the
(06:38):
rest of the votes are. Um, you know, you still
have a bunch of Philadelphia votes yet to count. Yes,
you have some provisionals, but they are not gonna be
strongly Republican enough to overcome the eight twenty margin that
Biden is getting from a lot of votes out of Pennsylvania.
(06:59):
I mean, I think there's actually, you know, most people
think that Biden's margin in Pennsylvania is going to be
significantly bigger in the end than Trump's margin was in
that state four years ago when all the Republicans were
proclaiming a landslide. You know, was this election a huge
repudiation of Donald Trump? When you see that the Republicans
(07:20):
gained seats in the House. When you see that they
it looks right now with the Georgia runoff expected to
Georgia runoffs expected, uh, that they're holding the Senate majority.
But yet the president uh wasn't able to pull it off.
So was this really about Donald Trump and Donald Trump only? Well,
(07:46):
it certainly was not a huge repudiation of Republicans. Um.
Republicans down ballot, you know, for the most part seemed
to outperform the top of the ticket a little bit.
Um often you'll see the opposite um. And in terms
of the presidential race itself, Uh, Trump performed pretty respectively.
(08:08):
I mean, he won Ohio, he won Florida, He won
Florida pretty comfortably. UM, he won uh North Carolina. Um.
He kept it close in a number of the other
key battleground states. Now, in terms of the popular vote,
it's not going to be that close. I think Biden's
on track to win the popular vote by five or
(08:30):
six or even seven million. I think it's gonna be
a bigger popular vote margin than Obama's over Romney in twelve.
But the electoral college, which is where this has really
fought and decided, was was a bit closer, you know.
I think Biden's on track for three oh six, which
is precisely the numbers we've discussed that Trump got four
(08:51):
years ago. So I think there's gonna be some soul searching, frankly,
in both parties about you know, what they got right
and what they got wrong, and it's it's really a
mixed bag for both You're right. I mean, I think
President Trump did much better than a lot of people expected,
and I think it just underscored once again how divided
(09:12):
this country is that so many people still really felt
more comfortable with Donald Trump than Joe Biden for a
host of reasons. What primarily do you believe were the reasons, Brian,
I think it was primarily ideological. I think there were
a number of voters who were uncomfortable with Trump personally
(09:36):
and temperamentally. They had doubts about his capacity for the job,
but they were convinced, based on their own predispositions to
be kind of center or center right, that the Democrats
were a little too extreme, that Biden was a trojan
horse for the radical left. I mean, I worked in
Florida this cycle, and you know, we did seven or
(09:57):
eight focus groups with Trump voters who were considering voting
for Biden, and that argument resonated with them. They were
scared by what they saw. You know that the media
was focusing heavily on Bernie and Warren and AOC. You know,
they had gone through this kind of summer of racially
(10:18):
charged protest, of riots of um, you know, defund the police,
which is perhaps the worst political slogan in American history,
with the possible exception of socialists. Um. And and they
heard both those things, you know, and I thought it
was striking. Abigail Spanburger, who's a congresswoman from your home
(10:40):
state of or home commonwealth, I should call it, right, Um,
she was on this call with other House Democrats kind
of hashing over the election return she barely survived. You know,
she's from a tough red to blue district and she erupted.
And she's a pretty mild man or you know, national
(11:00):
security professional, moderate Democrat, and and she just said, you know,
unless we exercise socialism, defund the police, this kind of
hard left um stench from our party. Um, we're going
to get you know, bleeping walloped or something to that effect,
(11:21):
uh in two years. And it is a problem. I
worked at congressional race which is still too close to
call in a Republican district in northern California, and what
are the Republican independent groups choose to focus on in
the last two weeks of the campaign. It was defund
the police, it was socialism, it was riots, it was anarchy.
And I think for a lot of you know, and
(11:43):
rightly or wrongly, for a lot of white swing voters
in suburban communities, that whole line of argument was really scary.
And I think and you also saw finally in the
exit polling the voters who decided at the and just
as in broke for Trump. Now we'll see how the
(12:04):
exit poll evolves as it's kind of reweighted and adjusted
as we go, but I think that's pretty significant too.
And I think that's probably a word of warning for
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in terms of how they
approach governing. If in fact, Joe Biden is elected as
it appears, he will be uh that when it comes
(12:25):
to you know, holding onto progressive principles is one thing
like healthcare pre you know, fixing healthcare pre existing conditions,
even universal healthcare, potentially something like the Green New Deal,
as long as it doesn't put a ton of people
out of work. I mean, I think all those things
(12:46):
are going to have to be seen through a new lens,
don't you. Uh not that they're not important issues to tackle,
but it has to be done carefully, right, Yeah, I mean,
and Biden was thoughtful during the campaign about distancing himself
from some of these ideas. He did not endorse the
Green New Deal. He said he had his own plan.
(13:08):
He uh publicly repeatedly broke from defund the police. He
said rioters should be prosecuted. Um. And he needed to
do all of those things. Um. The question is why
did he need to do all of those things. Why
was that even a conversation that was happening, And it
was because some activists who were almost exclusively from deep
(13:31):
blue urban areas were pushing those issues to the detriment
of politicians who had to compete on much less friendly terrain,
and in order for the Democrats to govern, uh, to
win the Senate, to have a significant majority in the House,
they got to win a lot of areas that are
center center right in this country, and this stuff is challenging.
(13:55):
I think that Claire McCaskill talked about that this morning.
I saw her saying that the progressive wing of the
party has to appreciate people who are running in much
more conservative areas. I thought about my sister who was
running for lieutenant governor with Mark Warner before she was
diagnosed with cancer and had to drop out of the race.
(14:15):
But she was really good at kind of I mean,
she was quite a moderate Democrat of of working with
people in Charlottesville, but also in larger Alba Marle County,
which was quite you know, had a lot of conservative
voters there as well. And you know, I think sort
of we talked about it last night, Brian sort of
(14:36):
cancel culture and this self righteous smugness that you're an
idiot if you don't see things my way, um, which
I think can can feel like it's coming from uber
uber progressives can be very off putting to more moderate voters.
I mean, you can believe two things at the same time.
You can believe there is a history of systemic racism
(14:59):
in this country, that's stomach racism is a problem here
now today that has to be addressed. That there needs
to be more economic opportunity. Those are majority positions. Black
Lives Matter has a majority favorability rating in the country,
So you don't want to overlearn the lesson. You know,
voters of color are the core of the Democratic Party.
You don't want to push them away, But you also
(15:20):
don't want to push away Uh the SEV the electorate
that is white. Um, and it feels like, um, they're
being blamed. Um, they're being excluded, they're being chastise school.
You know, I don't know whether I told you this, Brian,
but I saw I feel the same way that it
(15:41):
is possible everything has become so black, white left right
that you can you can want to reform the police
department and feel that that it's patently unfair that black
men are uh subjected to profile and police brutality much
(16:02):
more often than white people. You can also respect and
appreciate what the police do and support Black Lives Matter.
And there was a Vin diagram that Billy Gene King
put on her Instagram. I don't know if I told
you this. It might have been David Brooks I was
talking to. I get all you guys mixed up, used
for each other all the time, so anti semitic of you,
(16:23):
Katie in the middle. In the middle, it said me,
and it was Billy, you know, And I thought, yeah,
why why do we have to necessarily pick sides and
say you're either pro police or pro black Lives Matter?
And I guess a lot of um, you know, activists
will say, well, you can't be both, But I think
that's honestly, where a lot of people are. You know,
(16:46):
they want to respect and appreciate good policing and good
officers and also help them be better officers and weed
out bad officers. And you know, but as somebody who
is not a black person, you know, I have a
different outlook and a different life experience, so I cannot necessarily, uh,
(17:07):
you know, appreciate what it's like to be a black
man in America. And so I understand the anger that
has been built up over years and years and years
of racial profiling and just late you know, out and
out racism. Anyway, I complete agree with that, But let
me just say, if you listen to the voices of
(17:28):
black people, uh and Latinos, support for defund the police
was actually significantly less among those groups than among the
white left. This is uh more of a kind of
white elite left issue than it is among actual black
and brown voters. UM. You know, my favorite example of
(17:51):
this is the term latin x um, which is, you know,
the very kind of hip woke term for Latinos and
Latinos in this country. The only problem with it is
if you actually listen to Latinos and Latinos Hispanics, they
identify those terms with those terms, they understand those terms.
(18:11):
They don't know what latin x is. And Reuben Gayego,
who's a Hispanic member of Congress from working class Latino
district in Arizona, the day after the election, tweeted, you
know one thing we've got to start doing, uh if
we want to win over more Hispanic voters or Latino voters,
(18:33):
is stop using the term latin x because they don't
understand it. Q did a pull that showed that only
three percent of Americans actually I think it was three
percent of Latinos had ever heard the term or use
the term Latin X, So to me, that's like exhibit
A of the disconnect sometimes between you know, what are
note as like extremely online people who are primarily upscale
(18:54):
and white and urban, and the voters that Democrats need
to win. So let's talk about some other uh lessons
(19:17):
that we've learned here. So we've realized that that the
socialism message, the antisocialism message, really resonated with a lot
of voters. What about the economy? Do you think that
the Biden campaign made a strong enough connection between getting
COVID nineteen, getting the pandemic under control, and jump starting
(19:39):
the economy. I think they tried. Biden gave a number
of speeches and interviews on this topic. UM. I think
they were aware of the challenge. I'm not going to
fault what they did or didn't do, but the net
result was insufficient. Um. You know, even coming off the
worst economic collapse in history, he and with the worst
(20:00):
jobs record of any president since Hoover. You know, Trump
went into election day with a consistent advantage on who
do you trust to handle the economy? Um, and that
that was a problem. You know, the economy is usually
one of the biggest issues, if not the biggest issue.
I believe that once all the exit poll data is
(20:21):
kind of weighted and compiled, we will see that it's
the biggest issue again. And and Democrats cannot lose on
the economy. That's kind of the core of of of
of who we are. We're fighting for more economic opportunity.
And I sometimes worry, or at least I worried over
(20:42):
the course of the Trump presidency that a number of
Democrats were so distracted by the horror show of Trump
Um that the message kind of boiled down to this
is not who we are. America is better than this.
Trump's behavior is a omitable and a lot of people
would agree with that, and then they would still support
(21:03):
Trump because they thought that Trump was more able to
deliver economic improvements for them, um in their lives. And
and so you know, a huge focus for Joe Biden
from day one has got to be um helping people
rebuild economically, helping the country rebuild economically. And and this leads,
(21:24):
unfortunately to the discussion about you know, in all likelihood,
Democrats are not going to have the Senate, and it's
going to be very, very difficult for Democrats to get
things done legislatively. Having said that, as I said last night,
is there a chance because of Biden's personal relationships with
some of these folks that it will just be less
(21:45):
rancorous and it will um or do you think they're
going to be complete obstructionists? You and I? Of course,
I interviewed Mitch McConnell at Yahoo and asked him about saying,
as soon as Barack Obama was elected, we're going to
has been you know, our our number one job for
the Republican Party is to make sure he isn't reelected,
(22:07):
which you know, not even a honeymoon period of saying
what can we do together? And of course health Care
pass with not one Republican vote, and so um you know,
are you do you have any optimism that after an
exhausting four years that the parties possibly could work together.
(22:28):
I think it is possible on a few issues that
a few Republicans, you know, Susan Collins or Meant Romney
or you know, Republicans without any kind of national political ambitions,
Republicans who are not afraid of their base, Republicans who
do you know, feel a sense of responsibility to the country. Um,
(22:50):
you know, may work with him on those things. But
I hope I'm wrong. I think, by and large with
the Obama presidency taught us is that the Republicans, for
the most part, have decided that the best political strategy
is to oppose the Democratic president at every turn. And therefore,
when the Democratic president can't get certain things done um
(23:14):
and gets no bipartisan support, the Republicans are able to
blame him for those things, and voters blame the president
for those things. So, you know, Obama, I think, over
and over again, was willing to meet the Republicans halfway,
sometimes even more than that. They weren't willing in many
(23:34):
cases to move an inch. And yet the voters blamed
Obama for being unable to produce, you know, bipartisan legislative successes.
So it's a kind of a cynical strategy, of course,
but it's an effective one. And I think, you know,
McConnell and most of the Senate Republicans are going to
(23:55):
look very quickly too, when they have the opportunity to
span their majority potentially in the Senate, to win back
the House, which is far more possible today than it looked,
you know, before this election. And I think the obstruction
strategy is going to feel like the right strategy to them.
And also with the runoffs if the two Democrats win
(24:18):
in Georgia, and you were saying before in another conversation
we had that turnout is very difficult, Uh, when you
don't have a presidential election, so it might be more difficult.
Although Stacy Abrahams has built quite an organization in Georgia,
and I'm sure we'll be working very hard for these
(24:38):
for these Senate races, It's not impossible. I think there's
a chance. I do think there's a chance. I think
you know, Biden's gonna win Georgia, so the votes are there. UM.
But you know, do all those votes from a from
a presidential election turnout in January for a Senate runoff,
Maybe it's possible. UM. If I had to bet money,
(25:00):
I would bet that the you know, the Republicans tend
to turn out more. Republicans historically do better in these
off your elections because they show up UM, over and
over and over again. And Democrats tend to be tend
to vote more intermittently UM and and mostly in presidential years. UM.
And so you know, Biden certainly knows the stakes. UM.
(25:23):
I don't think they're gonna want for money. I think
Act Blue will funnel you know, millions and millions of
dollars to these two you know, very impressive, attractive Democratic candidates. Uh.
But I just I think it's it's a heavy lift.
But but you know, we should try. We should certainly try.
But I'm trying to give you honest analysis about what
(25:44):
I think the likelihood is. By the way, a lot
of people are asking about Kamala Harris's Senate seat. Brian, Yeah,
it's funny. I was just talking about this actually, UM
on a on a different interview, And I think, Um,
I think there are two frontrunners, Um Newsom, the governor
of California, gets to pick uh communist successor Vice President
(26:07):
elect Harris. In my view, UM, and Uh, I think
those are Karen Bass who was a runner up for
the VP slot, who is an enormously impressive person, a
master legislator. UM, the first black woman Speaker of the
California Assembly. Um. You know, I know her. I like her.
(26:31):
She'd be a terrific choice. UM. And the and and
by the way, you then get another black woman in
the Senate to replace the only black woman in the Senate. Now, Um,
the second choice, who I think is probably more likely
to get picked is Alex Padilla, who is California's Secretary
of State, who would be the first Latino Senator ever
(26:54):
from California. UM. That is you know, isn't it. It
is hard to believe. And we're a majority minority state.
Latinos are actually, by proportion of population, the biggest group
in California, slightly edging out whites. Um, but in terms
of voters have been quite underrepresented over the years. And
(27:17):
I think, um, the governor feels a deep sense of history.
He also goes back a long way with Padilla, who
actually and the six junkies watching this will appreciate it.
When Newsom ran for governor in the primaries against Jerry
Brown ten years ago, Alex Padilla was actually the chairman
of Newsom's campaign. So they go back a long way.
(27:39):
And I think, you know, and he's very impressive, and
I think, you know, if I had to bet, he
would probably get picked. Let's talk about turnout. Uh, I
understand this is going to be the largest turnout in
something like one hundred years. Uh. And UM, I think
people were more, perhaps more engaged in in this election
(27:59):
than they have in any election of my lifetime certainly. Uh,
do you have any idea about the turnout numbers? Did
a lot of young people come out and vote, did
a lot of seniors or is it hard to tell
until all the mail in ballots are are are accounted
and we can really analyze the people who voted. It's
(28:21):
hard to tell accurately demographic by demographic. But I can't
say overall turn out his way up. We know that,
I mean, and on both sides, which is I think
a surprise to a lot of people. People were expecting
a blue surge, they weren't expecting a red surge, and
we got both. So you know, Trump is now just
under seventy million votes. I think he got sixty three
(28:42):
or sixty four million last time. UM, Hillary got I
think sixty six million last time. Biden is now at
seventy four million. I mean, I think he's gonna get
to seventy five million once California is fully counted. UM.
So huge increase in turnout on both sides, and I
would be shocked if it weren't, you know, driven by
(29:04):
young people as well as older people. But you know
the thing that the Trump people got mocked for UM
for years saying that they were going to bring out
a lot more white, non college voters. Um, it turns
out they probably did. I think the Blue surge was
was clearly bigger, and and and overtook them. But you know,
(29:27):
the Republicans turned out and and and Trump's supporters turned
out and and and they are going to be a
force in our politics, a huge force for years to come.
And I would not bet against anyone whose last name
is Trump in Republican primaries. In fact, I saw last
night there was an article that said he had already
(29:48):
been discussing. By the way, I can't vouch for this,
but it was I think media saying that he had
already been floating the idea of if he lost, about
running in twenty four I was going to tweet it
and say too soon. I think it's very possible. I
think it's very very possible, and a lot of people
(30:09):
are talking about that. Um he uh. He would be
seventy eight, which is about Joe Biden's age. Um, he
would want to of course avenge his loss. Um. I
think if the Democratic nominee is Vice President Kamala Harris,
he would relish the opportunity to have a full on
(30:30):
race and gender war against somebody who symbolizes the America
that he is fighting against tooth and nail. Um. You know,
David Axelrod had this great line that, you know, uh
Joe Biden was very culturally inconvenient for Donald Trump. And
it's true, you know, working class kid from Scranton, p A.
Not part of the sixties protest movement, not part of
(30:53):
the woke squad. You know, it was very hard to
demonize uh Joe Biden or to make him a scary figure.
I mean, in fact, you know, Donald Trump bought himself
an impeachment trying to disqualify Joe Biden because he knew,
I mean give him credit, he knew very early on
that Biden was going to be a deeply problematic opponent
(31:15):
for him. Well, I don't think he views uh Kamala
Harris the same way. Now, he may be really underestimating her,
and she may build an equally if not more powerful
coalition driven by you know, different demographics. But I just
think from the you know, from inside you know, Trump's
kind of prejudiced, adult, uh heat seeking brain. Um. You know,
(31:39):
I think the possibility of running against a woman and
a black woman. Um, I think is probably in a
sick way, very appealing to him. Let's talk about criminal
charges that any of the Trump family may face. Is
that a possibility at all? Given all the investigations that
are going on in this Southern District of New York
(32:02):
about you know, improprieties which his charities, certain things that
have been done tax wise. Um, do you think that
those will go anywhere? Yeah? I think they might. Um.
I think you have the New York State Attorney General
looking into Trump's business and his charity, his fraudulent charity.
(32:23):
I think you have the Southern District of New York
looking into this stuff. And I think the great unanswered
question is, Um, does Trump try to pardon himself? I
actually have very little doubt that he's going to try
to pardon everyone around him. I think that's how he's
going to try to buy the loyalty of all these
people who haven't kind of you know, flipped to use
the mafia parliance. Um. But I think it is it
(32:47):
is kind of uncertain legal ground for a president to
try to pardon himself. You know, that could go to
the Supreme Court. Is Amy Coney Barrett the deciding vote
on that. I don't know, can a president, a president
can in fact pardon himself for one day herself. Well, no,
no one has tried before. Nixon, you know, had enough
(33:08):
propriety that he wouldn't even dream of trying. Um. But
I don't think Trump respects these you know, these norms
and traditions at all. Um. And so if it's a possible,
I mean, I certainly don't think Bill Barr is going
to stand in his way. I think he's going to
get a favorable opinion from bars Justice Department, um, and
then it'll probably be you know, fought out in the courts.
(33:31):
And and you know, if if there's anything we know
about Trump that you know, he pushes the limits and
most of the time he gets away with it. Um.
You know, you just can't even remember it, like washes
over us all of the stuff that he's done, any
one of which would have been like a presidency ending
(33:51):
scandal for previous presidents. And yet he just, you know,
like old man River, he just keeps rolling along. And
you know, I think, uh, I think he may try.
(34:14):
What about these claims of voter fraud that seemed to
have absolutely no merit. It saddens me to see people
on this live interview, still claiming fraud. We've heard that
there have been no incidents, or very few incidents, or
I guess zero incidents. I'm sure there have been some
(34:34):
cases of sketchy things going on. I mean, can you
really have an election with zero point zero cases of
of kind of questionable voting behavior. There's got to be
a there's got to be a few. But you know,
no one has presented any evidence of anything significant. I mean,
(34:56):
I don't think anyone's presented any evidence of a single
ballot in this cycle being you know, fraudulent in the
sense that somebody tried to like double vote or cancel
out somebody else's vote or something like that. I mean,
people make plenty of mistakes, of course, and we're seeing
that all over Pennsylvania in a way that, by the way,
advantaged Donald Trump, not Joe Biden, because you know, people
(35:20):
had to kind of go through this complicated new procedure
with an inner envelope and an outer envelope signatures, and
I mean, it was a whole it was a whole thing. Um.
But you know, I give great credit to Pat to me,
the conservative Republican senator from Pennsylvania who went on the
Today Show this morning and said, you know, there's no
(35:41):
evidence for what the president is saying, and he ought
to quit saying. He ought to quit saying it. Um.
But you know, there is a divide in the Republican
party between you know, the retiring Republicans to me's not
running again in two who are being honest about this stuff? Um?
You know, or the or the retired Republicans who you know,
many of them supported Biden, and the Republicans with ambition, Um,
(36:06):
who are you know, in some cases fanning the flames? Now?
I will say Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican leader, went
on Fox last night, said that Trump won the election,
you know, definitively said that Trump won the big Fox
primetime audience. I think he was on lor Ingram Show.
He then posted that on social media, knowing exactly what
(36:27):
he said, spread it around, and then today walked it back.
Today he said he was misunderstood and what he meant
was that Trump had won by helping down ballot House
and Senate Republicans, which of course was not what he meant.
But I do think it's noteworthy that he felt the
need to walk it back that you know, you you
(36:48):
have the news voices on Fox who are mostly being
pretty responsible here. I mean, apparently Trump is calling Rupert
Murdoch and others and and yelling about the Fox coverage
that they're not parenting his line that the whole thing
was stolen. I think Fox, you know, on some level
he is already looking a little bit past Trump and
(37:11):
and they may actually have a you know, set aside
whatever their moral views are, they have a business interest
and potentially being kind of the the opposition party because
historically their ratings have gone up, not down when of
Democrats and in the White House. So let's talk about
the concession speech. Will it? Do you think there will
(37:32):
be one? I don't think there's ever gonna be one.
That's my question. At something, do you think if Donald
Trump has lost, that he really wants to go down
in history as the most churlish, most bitter defeated president
of all time. Um, it's it's such. I know, I know,
(37:56):
I know, I know, I know better than being a loser,
you know. I And for Donald Trump, there were always
only two outcomes to this election. Either he won or
it was stolen. That was the only two he was
setting that he was setting the foundation for that for
months and months and months, despite the fact that mailan
voting was always going to have to be a necessary thing,
(38:19):
especially in the midst of a pandemic. I was watching
John McCain's concession speech in two thousand and eight. I
saw you posted that Harry Clinton's in two thousand sixteen,
which someone said was not gracious, and that could not
be further from the truth. It was moving, but she was,
you know, very magnanimous towards Donald Trump. So you think,
(38:42):
what what is going to happen in the next two
months before the inauguration. I think he's going to be
churlish and uncooperative. I think he's not going to like
be physically dragged out of the White House. I think
he's going to leave. But I think that is the
most he will do. I think, and again I hope
(39:04):
to death that I am wrong. I don't think he's
gonna uh send the message to you know, the dregs
and crooks who populate his administration to cooperate in any
sense with the the incoming administration. I think Biden, based
on the combination of COVID and the economy and Donald Trump,
(39:27):
is going to have by far the worst and most
difficult transition of any incoming president ever. I think Trump
is going to say that, you know, the deep State
plotted against him, the fraudulent votes, and and big media
and big Tech and all this stuff that he's using
(39:47):
is what pushed him out of the White House. But
he knows he won, and you know he won, and
this is all a fraud and Biden's illegitimate. Um. I
don't think he's going to invite the Bidens in for
the traditional coffee before the inauguration. I don't think he's
going to attend Biden's inauguration. I'd be surprised if he
did that. Uh, you know, traditionally, of course, Um, the
(40:11):
outgoing president invites the president elect shortly after the couple
of days after the election to the White House for
a very civil and cordial meeting. You know, the last
election like this was when Obama defeated Romney, and I
think a couple of weeks after the election, Obama invited
Romney in for lunch and they had a very you know,
(40:33):
by all accounts, a very friendly, cordial conversation for about
an hour. President Obama invited President elect Trump to the
White House. I think two days after the election and
had him to lunch and and I just think he's gonna,
you know, he's just blowing up all the norms and
and that the real loser is our is our institutions
(40:55):
and our democracy and public trust and this is really
dangerous stuff. Well, Brian, it's been so fun, uh talking
to you about all this stuff. You guys can see
why I always call Brian when I have quite political
Thank you all right, I'll talk to you soon, bye, Brian.
Turnout is a production of I Heart Media and Katie
(41:16):
Currik Media. The executive producers are Katie Curic and Courtney Littz.
Supervising producers Lauren Hansen. Associate producers Derek Clements, Eliza costUS
and Emily Kento. Editing by Derreck Clements and Lauren Hansen,
Mixing by Derrick Clements. Our researcher is Gabriel Loser and
special thanks to my right hand woman Adriana Fasio. You
(41:40):
can follow me in all my election coverage at Katie Curry. Meanwhile, yes,
I'm Katie Curry. Thanks so much for listening. Everyone. We'll
see you next time.
Yeah, leaving this message for Katie Curic. This is for
this week's episode of Turnout. I'm leaving my voting story.
We're finally on the other side of the presidential election,
and it's been, as promised, unprecedented because of highly engaged
voters like you. I live here in Rule Tennessee, just
(00:24):
outside Nashville. I'm calling you from Connecticut, Virginia, Chicago, Illinois,
and snati Ohio. You turned out in record numbers Dale,
North Carolina, Michigan, Denver, Colorado, Rooklyn, when all is said
and done, is projected to have the highest voter turnout
rate in more than a century. I'm a game mill
(00:45):
from Kentucky. I have some special health needs. I'm blind.
To live in the battleground state, I live in the suburb.
I have voted both parties in the past. My husband
and I we voted. It was great to hear for
so many of you this week who called in to
share your voting stories. This really is a moment in
(01:05):
history that will be talking about and analyzing for years
to come. I'm nineteen years old and this was my
first time voting in a presidential election. With COVID rates
on the rise, I decided to vote by mail. We
voted abstince T about two weeks ago and dropped it
off at our city clerk's box. I have a twenty
year old son who rushed home from college to get
(01:27):
his ballot in the box. I voted early this year,
back in September, three weeks ago. Two weeks ago, so
I actually voted in person, in person on my birthday.
My man ballot actually got lost in the mail. But
after ring to my local election office, I was able
to do a limited voting and there was no wait.
We were in and out within under ten minutes, simple, easy, greasy,
(01:51):
hive minutes. But the line was moving smoothly. Had to
wait in life for forty five minutes, about two hours.
I was just glad I was able to vote early
and get it out of the way. I want my
vote fatikins for a T shirt. It was an excellent experience.
Kudos to the arena and the NBA for making it happen.
As a member of a marginalized community, it was just
good to like have my vote count and my voice heard.
(02:14):
As cliche as it sounds, there's a lot of places
in my life where you know, um, I don't always
feel that way. I was able to check online tracked electronically,
so I know that my local Board of Elections has
already received my ballot. But I received a text message
from the Register of Voters the very next day confirming
that they were in receipt of my ballot. I'm good
to go and that it will be counted. It felt
(02:35):
so so great to finally be able to vote, and
especially in such a critical effection. I'm Katie Couric and
this is Turnout. It's Friday, November six and today on
the podcast a conversation I just had over Instagram Live
with Brian Goldsmith. Now Brian, many of you know, is
a really good friend of mine. We used to do
a podcast together. He worked with me at CBS, later
(02:58):
at Yahoo. He helped me enormously prepare for my Sarah
Palin interview, my infamous or famous interview, depending on your perspective,
and he's my go to guy whenever I have a
question about national politics. In fact, I tease him because
he was grounded in high school for sneaking out of
(03:19):
his room to watch c SPAN. Yeah, he's that big
of a political nerd. So I thought it would be
really instructive and helpful for us to do a post
mortem on what happened this week. And since the news
is changing so fast and furiously, we wanted you to
know that we recorded this conversation at six pm Eastern
(03:42):
Time again on Friday. So enjoy. Let's talk about the election. Okay,
so just give us a quick update. It feels like like,
when are they going to call this thing? UM? Help us.
I don't know why they haven't called it. I mean,
I think I know why, but it doesn't really make
sense because if your Fox or the A P and
(04:04):
you've already called Arizona um, Biden wins the presidency just
with Nevada. Nobody who's looked at the numbers thinks that
Nevada is going to flip back to Trump. So with
Nevada and Arizona, Biden hits to seventy. You know that's it.
Game over, Fat Ladies, etcetera. Okay, if you're all the
(04:26):
other networks you haven't called Arizona UM. Take a look
at Pennsylvania, where Biden's lead is pretty substantial and is
getting bigger, not smaller. Now, is there like an insane
scenario with provisional ballots? UM? Contradicting, you know, the historic
(04:49):
patterns of previous provisional ballots, contradicting the counties from which
they came. Yes, I mean I also could be struck
by lightning right here, right now. That is receivably possible.
But Biden's gonna win Pennsylvania. And once you've accepted that,
you know, you get over to seventy even under the
(05:10):
count that ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN are keeping. And
that way. Sorry to interrupt Bryant, but Arizona, it seems
I haven't really looked at it in the last hour.
I went to the grocery store instead. Arizona is it
seems like it's tightening up? Um, isn't it a little bit?
And I guess maybe in the event that Arizona gets
(05:33):
too close to call Um that's why maybe the networks,
as you said, are waiting for Pennsylvania. So, but he
doesn't need Arizona. So even if you were to assume no,
I know, he doesn't need Arizona. But what I'm saying
is maybe they're waiting for Pennsylvania, where he has a
more sizeable lead. Since they didn't call Arizona and not
(05:53):
that Arizona. I don't know. Is Arizona a little up
for grabs? I don't think so. I mean, everybody, say,
is who's looked at this has said that, you know,
Biden's lead may narrow a bit. It's I mean, it's
over one point now, it's one point three percent um,
and it may shrink a little bit. But I don't
think anyone expects Trump to overtake Biden in Arizona. But okay,
(06:17):
so let's but then even if you take even if
you say Arizona is too uncertain, And that's why NBCCBS, ABC,
CNN have not called Arizona. You don't. You know, you
go over here to Pennsylvania and Biden's lead is about
fourteen thousand votes and growing, and then you know, okay,
I'm gonna dip down into that. You know where the
(06:38):
rest of the votes are. Um, you know, you still
have a bunch of Philadelphia votes yet to count. Yes,
you have some provisionals, but they are not gonna be
strongly Republican enough to overcome the eight twenty margin that
Biden is getting from a lot of votes out of Pennsylvania.
(06:59):
I mean, I think there's actually, you know, most people
think that Biden's margin in Pennsylvania is going to be
significantly bigger in the end than Trump's margin was in
that state four years ago when all the Republicans were
proclaiming a landslide. You know, was this election a huge
repudiation of Donald Trump? When you see that the Republicans
(07:20):
gained seats in the House. When you see that they
it looks right now with the Georgia runoff expected to
Georgia runoffs expected, uh, that they're holding the Senate majority.
But yet the president uh wasn't able to pull it off.
So was this really about Donald Trump and Donald Trump only? Well,
(07:46):
it certainly was not a huge repudiation of Republicans. Um.
Republicans down ballot, you know, for the most part seemed
to outperform the top of the ticket a little bit.
Um often you'll see the opposite um. And in terms
of the presidential race itself, Uh, Trump performed pretty respectively.
(08:08):
I mean, he won Ohio, he won Florida, He won
Florida pretty comfortably. UM, he won uh North Carolina. Um.
He kept it close in a number of the other
key battleground states. Now, in terms of the popular vote,
it's not going to be that close. I think Biden's
on track to win the popular vote by five or
(08:30):
six or even seven million. I think it's gonna be
a bigger popular vote margin than Obama's over Romney in twelve.
But the electoral college, which is where this has really
fought and decided, was was a bit closer, you know.
I think Biden's on track for three oh six, which
is precisely the numbers we've discussed that Trump got four
(08:51):
years ago. So I think there's gonna be some soul searching, frankly,
in both parties about you know, what they got right
and what they got wrong, and it's it's really a
mixed bag for both You're right. I mean, I think
President Trump did much better than a lot of people expected,
and I think it just underscored once again how divided
(09:12):
this country is that so many people still really felt
more comfortable with Donald Trump than Joe Biden for a
host of reasons. What primarily do you believe were the reasons, Brian,
I think it was primarily ideological. I think there were
a number of voters who were uncomfortable with Trump personally
(09:36):
and temperamentally. They had doubts about his capacity for the job,
but they were convinced, based on their own predispositions to
be kind of center or center right, that the Democrats
were a little too extreme, that Biden was a trojan
horse for the radical left. I mean, I worked in
Florida this cycle, and you know, we did seven or
(09:57):
eight focus groups with Trump voters who were considering voting
for Biden, and that argument resonated with them. They were
scared by what they saw. You know that the media
was focusing heavily on Bernie and Warren and AOC. You know,
they had gone through this kind of summer of racially
(10:18):
charged protest, of riots of um, you know, defund the police,
which is perhaps the worst political slogan in American history,
with the possible exception of socialists. Um. And and they
heard both those things, you know, and I thought it
was striking. Abigail Spanburger, who's a congresswoman from your home
(10:40):
state of or home commonwealth, I should call it, right, Um,
she was on this call with other House Democrats kind
of hashing over the election return she barely survived. You know,
she's from a tough red to blue district and she erupted.
And she's a pretty mild man or you know, national
(11:00):
security professional, moderate Democrat, and and she just said, you know,
unless we exercise socialism, defund the police, this kind of
hard left um stench from our party. Um, we're going
to get you know, bleeping walloped or something to that effect,
(11:21):
uh in two years. And it is a problem. I
worked at congressional race which is still too close to
call in a Republican district in northern California, and what
are the Republican independent groups choose to focus on in
the last two weeks of the campaign. It was defund
the police, it was socialism, it was riots, it was anarchy.
And I think for a lot of you know, and
(11:43):
rightly or wrongly, for a lot of white swing voters
in suburban communities, that whole line of argument was really scary.
And I think and you also saw finally in the
exit polling the voters who decided at the and just
as in broke for Trump. Now we'll see how the
(12:04):
exit poll evolves as it's kind of reweighted and adjusted
as we go, but I think that's pretty significant too.
And I think that's probably a word of warning for
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in terms of how they
approach governing. If in fact, Joe Biden is elected as
it appears, he will be uh that when it comes
(12:25):
to you know, holding onto progressive principles is one thing
like healthcare pre you know, fixing healthcare pre existing conditions,
even universal healthcare, potentially something like the Green New Deal,
as long as it doesn't put a ton of people
out of work. I mean, I think all those things
(12:46):
are going to have to be seen through a new lens,
don't you. Uh not that they're not important issues to tackle,
but it has to be done carefully, right, Yeah, I mean,
and Biden was thoughtful during the campaign about distancing himself
from some of these ideas. He did not endorse the
Green New Deal. He said he had his own plan.
(13:08):
He uh publicly repeatedly broke from defund the police. He
said rioters should be prosecuted. Um. And he needed to
do all of those things. Um. The question is why
did he need to do all of those things. Why
was that even a conversation that was happening, And it
was because some activists who were almost exclusively from deep
(13:31):
blue urban areas were pushing those issues to the detriment
of politicians who had to compete on much less friendly terrain,
and in order for the Democrats to govern, uh, to
win the Senate, to have a significant majority in the House,
they got to win a lot of areas that are
center center right in this country, and this stuff is challenging.
(13:55):
I think that Claire McCaskill talked about that this morning.
I saw her saying that the progressive wing of the
party has to appreciate people who are running in much
more conservative areas. I thought about my sister who was
running for lieutenant governor with Mark Warner before she was
diagnosed with cancer and had to drop out of the race.
(14:15):
But she was really good at kind of I mean,
she was quite a moderate Democrat of of working with
people in Charlottesville, but also in larger Alba Marle County,
which was quite you know, had a lot of conservative
voters there as well. And you know, I think sort
of we talked about it last night, Brian sort of
(14:36):
cancel culture and this self righteous smugness that you're an
idiot if you don't see things my way, um, which
I think can can feel like it's coming from uber
uber progressives can be very off putting to more moderate voters.
I mean, you can believe two things at the same time.
You can believe there is a history of systemic racism
(14:59):
in this country, that's stomach racism is a problem here
now today that has to be addressed. That there needs
to be more economic opportunity. Those are majority positions. Black
Lives Matter has a majority favorability rating in the country,
So you don't want to overlearn the lesson. You know,
voters of color are the core of the Democratic Party.
You don't want to push them away, But you also
(15:20):
don't want to push away Uh the SEV the electorate
that is white. Um, and it feels like, um, they're
being blamed. Um, they're being excluded, they're being chastise school.
You know, I don't know whether I told you this, Brian,
but I saw I feel the same way that it
(15:41):
is possible everything has become so black, white left right
that you can you can want to reform the police
department and feel that that it's patently unfair that black
men are uh subjected to profile and police brutality much
(16:02):
more often than white people. You can also respect and
appreciate what the police do and support Black Lives Matter.
And there was a Vin diagram that Billy Gene King
put on her Instagram. I don't know if I told
you this. It might have been David Brooks I was
talking to. I get all you guys mixed up, used
for each other all the time, so anti semitic of you,
(16:23):
Katie in the middle. In the middle, it said me,
and it was Billy, you know, And I thought, yeah,
why why do we have to necessarily pick sides and
say you're either pro police or pro black Lives Matter?
And I guess a lot of um, you know, activists
will say, well, you can't be both, But I think
that's honestly, where a lot of people are. You know,
(16:46):
they want to respect and appreciate good policing and good
officers and also help them be better officers and weed
out bad officers. And you know, but as somebody who
is not a black person, you know, I have a
different outlook and a different life experience, so I cannot necessarily, uh,
(17:07):
you know, appreciate what it's like to be a black
man in America. And so I understand the anger that
has been built up over years and years and years
of racial profiling and just late you know, out and
out racism. Anyway, I complete agree with that, But let
me just say, if you listen to the voices of
(17:28):
black people, uh and Latinos, support for defund the police
was actually significantly less among those groups than among the
white left. This is uh more of a kind of
white elite left issue than it is among actual black
and brown voters. UM. You know, my favorite example of
(17:51):
this is the term latin x um, which is, you know,
the very kind of hip woke term for Latinos and
Latinos in this country. The only problem with it is
if you actually listen to Latinos and Latinos Hispanics, they
identify those terms with those terms, they understand those terms.
(18:11):
They don't know what latin x is. And Reuben Gayego,
who's a Hispanic member of Congress from working class Latino
district in Arizona, the day after the election, tweeted, you
know one thing we've got to start doing, uh if
we want to win over more Hispanic voters or Latino voters,
(18:33):
is stop using the term latin x because they don't
understand it. Q did a pull that showed that only
three percent of Americans actually I think it was three
percent of Latinos had ever heard the term or use
the term Latin X, So to me, that's like exhibit
A of the disconnect sometimes between you know, what are
note as like extremely online people who are primarily upscale
(18:54):
and white and urban, and the voters that Democrats need
to win. So let's talk about some other uh lessons
(19:17):
that we've learned here. So we've realized that that the
socialism message, the antisocialism message, really resonated with a lot
of voters. What about the economy? Do you think that
the Biden campaign made a strong enough connection between getting
COVID nineteen, getting the pandemic under control, and jump starting
(19:39):
the economy. I think they tried. Biden gave a number
of speeches and interviews on this topic. UM. I think
they were aware of the challenge. I'm not going to
fault what they did or didn't do, but the net
result was insufficient. Um. You know, even coming off the
worst economic collapse in history, he and with the worst
(20:00):
jobs record of any president since Hoover. You know, Trump
went into election day with a consistent advantage on who
do you trust to handle the economy? Um, and that
that was a problem. You know, the economy is usually
one of the biggest issues, if not the biggest issue.
I believe that once all the exit poll data is
(20:21):
kind of weighted and compiled, we will see that it's
the biggest issue again. And and Democrats cannot lose on
the economy. That's kind of the core of of of
of who we are. We're fighting for more economic opportunity.
And I sometimes worry, or at least I worried over
(20:42):
the course of the Trump presidency that a number of
Democrats were so distracted by the horror show of Trump
Um that the message kind of boiled down to this
is not who we are. America is better than this.
Trump's behavior is a omitable and a lot of people
would agree with that, and then they would still support
(21:03):
Trump because they thought that Trump was more able to
deliver economic improvements for them, um in their lives. And
and so you know, a huge focus for Joe Biden
from day one has got to be um helping people
rebuild economically, helping the country rebuild economically. And and this leads,
(21:24):
unfortunately to the discussion about you know, in all likelihood,
Democrats are not going to have the Senate, and it's
going to be very, very difficult for Democrats to get
things done legislatively. Having said that, as I said last night,
is there a chance because of Biden's personal relationships with
some of these folks that it will just be less
(21:45):
rancorous and it will um or do you think they're
going to be complete obstructionists? You and I? Of course,
I interviewed Mitch McConnell at Yahoo and asked him about saying,
as soon as Barack Obama was elected, we're going to
has been you know, our our number one job for
the Republican Party is to make sure he isn't reelected,
(22:07):
which you know, not even a honeymoon period of saying
what can we do together? And of course health Care
pass with not one Republican vote, and so um you know,
are you do you have any optimism that after an
exhausting four years that the parties possibly could work together.
(22:28):
I think it is possible on a few issues that
a few Republicans, you know, Susan Collins or Meant Romney
or you know, Republicans without any kind of national political ambitions,
Republicans who are not afraid of their base, Republicans who
do you know, feel a sense of responsibility to the country. Um,
(22:50):
you know, may work with him on those things. But
I hope I'm wrong. I think, by and large with
the Obama presidency taught us is that the Republicans, for
the most part, have decided that the best political strategy
is to oppose the Democratic president at every turn. And therefore,
when the Democratic president can't get certain things done um
(23:14):
and gets no bipartisan support, the Republicans are able to
blame him for those things, and voters blame the president
for those things. So, you know, Obama, I think, over
and over again, was willing to meet the Republicans halfway,
sometimes even more than that. They weren't willing in many
(23:34):
cases to move an inch. And yet the voters blamed
Obama for being unable to produce, you know, bipartisan legislative successes.
So it's a kind of a cynical strategy, of course,
but it's an effective one. And I think, you know,
McConnell and most of the Senate Republicans are going to
(23:55):
look very quickly too, when they have the opportunity to
span their majority potentially in the Senate, to win back
the House, which is far more possible today than it looked,
you know, before this election. And I think the obstruction
strategy is going to feel like the right strategy to them.
And also with the runoffs if the two Democrats win
(24:18):
in Georgia, and you were saying before in another conversation
we had that turnout is very difficult, Uh, when you
don't have a presidential election, so it might be more difficult.
Although Stacy Abrahams has built quite an organization in Georgia,
and I'm sure we'll be working very hard for these
(24:38):
for these Senate races, It's not impossible. I think there's
a chance. I do think there's a chance. I think
you know, Biden's gonna win Georgia, so the votes are there. UM.
But you know, do all those votes from a from
a presidential election turnout in January for a Senate runoff,
Maybe it's possible. UM. If I had to bet money,
(25:00):
I would bet that the you know, the Republicans tend
to turn out more. Republicans historically do better in these
off your elections because they show up UM, over and
over and over again. And Democrats tend to be tend
to vote more intermittently UM and and mostly in presidential years. UM.
And so you know, Biden certainly knows the stakes. UM.
(25:23):
I don't think they're gonna want for money. I think
Act Blue will funnel you know, millions and millions of
dollars to these two you know, very impressive, attractive Democratic candidates. Uh.
But I just I think it's it's a heavy lift.
But but you know, we should try. We should certainly try.
But I'm trying to give you honest analysis about what
(25:44):
I think the likelihood is. By the way, a lot
of people are asking about Kamala Harris's Senate seat. Brian, Yeah,
it's funny. I was just talking about this actually, UM
on a on a different interview, And I think, Um,
I think there are two frontrunners, Um Newsom, the governor
of California, gets to pick uh communist successor Vice President
(26:07):
elect Harris. In my view, UM, and Uh, I think
those are Karen Bass who was a runner up for
the VP slot, who is an enormously impressive person, a
master legislator. UM, the first black woman Speaker of the
California Assembly. Um. You know, I know her. I like her.
(26:31):
She'd be a terrific choice. UM. And the and and
by the way, you then get another black woman in
the Senate to replace the only black woman in the Senate. Now, Um,
the second choice, who I think is probably more likely
to get picked is Alex Padilla, who is California's Secretary
of State, who would be the first Latino Senator ever
(26:54):
from California. UM. That is you know, isn't it. It
is hard to believe. And we're a majority minority state.
Latinos are actually, by proportion of population, the biggest group
in California, slightly edging out whites. Um, but in terms
of voters have been quite underrepresented over the years. And
(27:17):
I think, um, the governor feels a deep sense of history.
He also goes back a long way with Padilla, who
actually and the six junkies watching this will appreciate it.
When Newsom ran for governor in the primaries against Jerry
Brown ten years ago, Alex Padilla was actually the chairman
of Newsom's campaign. So they go back a long way.
(27:39):
And I think, you know, and he's very impressive, and
I think, you know, if I had to bet, he
would probably get picked. Let's talk about turnout. Uh, I
understand this is going to be the largest turnout in
something like one hundred years. Uh. And UM, I think
people were more, perhaps more engaged in in this election
(27:59):
than they have in any election of my lifetime certainly. Uh,
do you have any idea about the turnout numbers? Did
a lot of young people come out and vote, did
a lot of seniors or is it hard to tell
until all the mail in ballots are are are accounted
and we can really analyze the people who voted. It's
(28:21):
hard to tell accurately demographic by demographic. But I can't
say overall turn out his way up. We know that,
I mean, and on both sides, which is I think
a surprise to a lot of people. People were expecting
a blue surge, they weren't expecting a red surge, and
we got both. So you know, Trump is now just
under seventy million votes. I think he got sixty three
(28:42):
or sixty four million last time. UM, Hillary got I
think sixty six million last time. Biden is now at
seventy four million. I mean, I think he's gonna get
to seventy five million once California is fully counted. UM.
So huge increase in turnout on both sides, and I
would be shocked if it weren't, you know, driven by
(29:04):
young people as well as older people. But you know
the thing that the Trump people got mocked for UM
for years saying that they were going to bring out
a lot more white, non college voters. Um, it turns
out they probably did. I think the Blue surge was
was clearly bigger, and and and overtook them. But you know,
(29:27):
the Republicans turned out and and and Trump's supporters turned
out and and and they are going to be a
force in our politics, a huge force for years to come.
And I would not bet against anyone whose last name
is Trump in Republican primaries. In fact, I saw last
night there was an article that said he had already
(29:48):
been discussing. By the way, I can't vouch for this,
but it was I think media saying that he had
already been floating the idea of if he lost, about
running in twenty four I was going to tweet it
and say too soon. I think it's very possible. I
think it's very very possible, and a lot of people
(30:09):
are talking about that. Um he uh. He would be
seventy eight, which is about Joe Biden's age. Um, he
would want to of course avenge his loss. Um. I
think if the Democratic nominee is Vice President Kamala Harris,
he would relish the opportunity to have a full on
(30:30):
race and gender war against somebody who symbolizes the America
that he is fighting against tooth and nail. Um. You know,
David Axelrod had this great line that, you know, uh
Joe Biden was very culturally inconvenient for Donald Trump. And
it's true, you know, working class kid from Scranton, p A.
Not part of the sixties protest movement, not part of
(30:53):
the woke squad. You know, it was very hard to
demonize uh Joe Biden or to make him a scary figure.
I mean, in fact, you know, Donald Trump bought himself
an impeachment trying to disqualify Joe Biden because he knew,
I mean give him credit, he knew very early on
that Biden was going to be a deeply problematic opponent
(31:15):
for him. Well, I don't think he views uh Kamala
Harris the same way. Now, he may be really underestimating her,
and she may build an equally if not more powerful
coalition driven by you know, different demographics. But I just
think from the you know, from inside you know, Trump's
kind of prejudiced, adult, uh heat seeking brain. Um. You know,
(31:39):
I think the possibility of running against a woman and
a black woman. Um, I think is probably in a
sick way, very appealing to him. Let's talk about criminal
charges that any of the Trump family may face. Is
that a possibility at all? Given all the investigations that
are going on in this Southern District of New York
(32:02):
about you know, improprieties which his charities, certain things that
have been done tax wise. Um, do you think that
those will go anywhere? Yeah? I think they might. Um.
I think you have the New York State Attorney General
looking into Trump's business and his charity, his fraudulent charity.
(32:23):
I think you have the Southern District of New York
looking into this stuff. And I think the great unanswered
question is, Um, does Trump try to pardon himself? I
actually have very little doubt that he's going to try
to pardon everyone around him. I think that's how he's
going to try to buy the loyalty of all these
people who haven't kind of you know, flipped to use
the mafia parliance. Um. But I think it is it
(32:47):
is kind of uncertain legal ground for a president to
try to pardon himself. You know, that could go to
the Supreme Court. Is Amy Coney Barrett the deciding vote
on that. I don't know, can a president, a president
can in fact pardon himself for one day herself. Well, no,
no one has tried before. Nixon, you know, had enough
(33:08):
propriety that he wouldn't even dream of trying. Um. But
I don't think Trump respects these you know, these norms
and traditions at all. Um. And so if it's a possible,
I mean, I certainly don't think Bill Barr is going
to stand in his way. I think he's going to
get a favorable opinion from bars Justice Department, um, and
then it'll probably be you know, fought out in the courts.
(33:31):
And and you know, if if there's anything we know
about Trump that you know, he pushes the limits and
most of the time he gets away with it. Um.
You know, you just can't even remember it, like washes
over us all of the stuff that he's done, any
one of which would have been like a presidency ending
(33:51):
scandal for previous presidents. And yet he just, you know,
like old man River, he just keeps rolling along. And
you know, I think, uh, I think he may try.
(34:14):
What about these claims of voter fraud that seemed to
have absolutely no merit. It saddens me to see people
on this live interview, still claiming fraud. We've heard that
there have been no incidents, or very few incidents, or
I guess zero incidents. I'm sure there have been some
(34:34):
cases of sketchy things going on. I mean, can you
really have an election with zero point zero cases of
of kind of questionable voting behavior. There's got to be
a there's got to be a few. But you know,
no one has presented any evidence of anything significant. I mean,
(34:56):
I don't think anyone's presented any evidence of a single
ballot in this cycle being you know, fraudulent in the
sense that somebody tried to like double vote or cancel
out somebody else's vote or something like that. I mean,
people make plenty of mistakes, of course, and we're seeing
that all over Pennsylvania in a way that, by the way,
advantaged Donald Trump, not Joe Biden, because you know, people
(35:20):
had to kind of go through this complicated new procedure
with an inner envelope and an outer envelope signatures, and
I mean, it was a whole it was a whole thing. Um.
But you know, I give great credit to Pat to me,
the conservative Republican senator from Pennsylvania who went on the
Today Show this morning and said, you know, there's no
(35:41):
evidence for what the president is saying, and he ought
to quit saying. He ought to quit saying it. Um.
But you know, there is a divide in the Republican
party between you know, the retiring Republicans to me's not
running again in two who are being honest about this stuff? Um?
You know, or the or the retired Republicans who you know,
many of them supported Biden, and the Republicans with ambition, Um,
(36:06):
who are you know, in some cases fanning the flames? Now?
I will say Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican leader, went
on Fox last night, said that Trump won the election,
you know, definitively said that Trump won the big Fox
primetime audience. I think he was on lor Ingram Show.
He then posted that on social media, knowing exactly what
(36:27):
he said, spread it around, and then today walked it back.
Today he said he was misunderstood and what he meant
was that Trump had won by helping down ballot House
and Senate Republicans, which of course was not what he meant.
But I do think it's noteworthy that he felt the
need to walk it back that you know, you you
(36:48):
have the news voices on Fox who are mostly being
pretty responsible here. I mean, apparently Trump is calling Rupert
Murdoch and others and and yelling about the Fox coverage
that they're not parenting his line that the whole thing
was stolen. I think Fox, you know, on some level
he is already looking a little bit past Trump and
(37:11):
and they may actually have a you know, set aside
whatever their moral views are, they have a business interest
and potentially being kind of the the opposition party because
historically their ratings have gone up, not down when of
Democrats and in the White House. So let's talk about
the concession speech. Will it? Do you think there will
(37:32):
be one? I don't think there's ever gonna be one.
That's my question. At something, do you think if Donald
Trump has lost, that he really wants to go down
in history as the most churlish, most bitter defeated president
of all time. Um, it's it's such. I know, I know,
(37:56):
I know, I know, I know better than being a loser,
you know. I And for Donald Trump, there were always
only two outcomes to this election. Either he won or
it was stolen. That was the only two he was
setting that he was setting the foundation for that for
months and months and months, despite the fact that mailan
voting was always going to have to be a necessary thing,
(38:19):
especially in the midst of a pandemic. I was watching
John McCain's concession speech in two thousand and eight. I
saw you posted that Harry Clinton's in two thousand sixteen,
which someone said was not gracious, and that could not
be further from the truth. It was moving, but she was,
you know, very magnanimous towards Donald Trump. So you think,
(38:42):
what what is going to happen in the next two
months before the inauguration. I think he's going to be
churlish and uncooperative. I think he's not going to like
be physically dragged out of the White House. I think
he's going to leave. But I think that is the
most he will do. I think, and again I hope
(39:04):
to death that I am wrong. I don't think he's
gonna uh send the message to you know, the dregs
and crooks who populate his administration to cooperate in any
sense with the the incoming administration. I think Biden, based
on the combination of COVID and the economy and Donald Trump,
(39:27):
is going to have by far the worst and most
difficult transition of any incoming president ever. I think Trump
is going to say that, you know, the deep State
plotted against him, the fraudulent votes, and and big media
and big Tech and all this stuff that he's using
(39:47):
is what pushed him out of the White House. But
he knows he won, and you know he won, and
this is all a fraud and Biden's illegitimate. Um. I
don't think he's going to invite the Bidens in for
the traditional coffee before the inauguration. I don't think he's
going to attend Biden's inauguration. I'd be surprised if he
did that. Uh, you know, traditionally, of course, Um, the
(40:11):
outgoing president invites the president elect shortly after the couple
of days after the election to the White House for
a very civil and cordial meeting. You know, the last
election like this was when Obama defeated Romney, and I
think a couple of weeks after the election, Obama invited
Romney in for lunch and they had a very you know,
(40:33):
by all accounts, a very friendly, cordial conversation for about
an hour. President Obama invited President elect Trump to the
White House. I think two days after the election and
had him to lunch and and I just think he's gonna,
you know, he's just blowing up all the norms and
and that the real loser is our is our institutions
(40:55):
and our democracy and public trust and this is really
dangerous stuff. Well, Brian, it's been so fun, uh talking
to you about all this stuff. You guys can see
why I always call Brian when I have quite political
Thank you all right, I'll talk to you soon, bye, Brian.
Turnout is a production of I Heart Media and Katie
(41:16):
Currik Media. The executive producers are Katie Curic and Courtney Littz.
Supervising producers Lauren Hansen. Associate producers Derek Clements, Eliza costUS
and Emily Kento. Editing by Derreck Clements and Lauren Hansen,
Mixing by Derrick Clements. Our researcher is Gabriel Loser and
special thanks to my right hand woman Adriana Fasio. You
(41:40):
can follow me in all my election coverage at Katie Curry. Meanwhile, yes,
I'm Katie Curry. Thanks so much for listening. Everyone. We'll
see you next time.
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