March 1, 2020 • 50 mins
Ariel Epstein and Jared Smith break down and preview all of today's NBA and College Basketball games from a betting perspective while providing their outlooks. They also provide their best bets for the day and more.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show and thanks so much for listening. The Window.
(00:27):
I want all of you to get up out of
your chairs, go to the window, open it and stick
your head out of here. Our number two about the
window on this fantastic March First, I'm Ariel Eves seen
(00:48):
here at Studio thirty four in Midtown Manhattan. Jarret Smith
is at the Vandal Sports Book where when it's March
feet at the Vandal Sports Book. Let me tell you
it is one of the most exciting things to be
a part of. It's one of the things where you
walk in, you look it says March first, and you say, wow,
I'm going to be stuck here for the next two
months between the March madness craziness, the NBA Playoffs coming up,
(01:12):
the XFL Championship coming up. It is such an exciting
time for futures. We're talking about today's game. But Jared,
how has the Vandal Sports Book been on this amazing
March first day. Well, we've got actually the Maryland Jockey
Club is about to start a race. I'm watching Gulf Stream.
I've got the honey, We've got the ponies here. We've
(01:33):
got everything going on today, are l I think Sunday's
like this is like they need to come up with
a brunch service. I feel like the millennial flock here
if they offered like a Sunday brunch at the book
right that that's some mimosas yea Formosa's bloody Mary's on
a Sunday and chill out watching the college hoops, especially
(01:54):
March Madness time and tired. We need to be there,
I mean twelve o'clock tip, you need to be there. Well,
they've got you stuck in the studio area. We have
got to talk to the We've got to talk to
the powers that be to get us both here at
the book for the March Madness games coming up. Especially.
I mean I was talking to our people at the
bar over here at Versa in the Renaissance Hotel, and
(02:15):
they said they're going to try to get us a
budget because we're here so much. I agree. I think
that that's Yeah. No, I think open bar is the
only is the only solution there. Yeah, for March madness, craziness,
I mean, we're gonna be losing our minds. It's almost
impossible to pick a perfect bracket. The conference tournaments are
gonna be awesome. We said we want to go to
the Big East Tournament because it's going to be right
here in our own backyard. It's going to be intense.
(02:37):
We were just talking about some NBA games. We spoke
about college at basketball for the whole first hour. Essentially,
what we've been doing is Jared's been trying to get
these NBA lines, and he's actually been pretty close to
hitting a lot of the issue has just been been
doing well in the NBA. No, College, you came within
two points of Everge. Yeah. College I think is a
(02:58):
little easier. But the NBA it's fun. And we talked
about it during the break. I think this is a
more fun and entertaining way than just to go through
each game and and go through the matchups, because it
gives us a chance to make a bet without without
betting on the game. Where I'm betting on what I
think the line is gonna be. It's like I'm betting
on the game when you're when you're kind of wrong,
you can assess why from the initial thought of looking
(03:21):
at the match up exactly. Okay, so this one is
I'm sure the matchup you're actually really intrigued by, and
the matchup that you've been counting down the days until
the Detroit Pistons are at the Sacramento Kings. Yeah, the
Kings have been playing really well. Yeah. Actually, the Kings
have been one of the hottest teams out at the
All Star Break. Yeah. I want to say they've won
(03:42):
seven of eleven. I think they've covered an eight of
eight of eight of those, I think they covered because
they want and didn't they lost and didn't cover the
other His arms crossed, his eyes half over and I
had to, uh, I had to, you know, get get
over the leather jack could face today. Funny you said
that because I was actually just looking at you through
(04:05):
our screen here and I said, I was about to
say you decided to go with the quarter zip without
the leather jacket today, and it kind of kind of
registered at the same time you were saying it. Our
guys over at the Versa bar said the need He's
going to come in here and like completely revamp our
on air staff and how they dressed because he's actually
(04:26):
convinced that there is an entire clothing store of quarter
zip sweaters in our downstairs room. You know what the
funny thing is, and you'll laugh for about this. So
it's my way here. I don't like. I don't like
driving back into the city right at four o'clock as
the traffics pat So a lot of times I hang
in Jersey for a little bit. I had thought to myself,
(04:48):
you know, I really need some more quarter zips for work.
I'm stopping at the mall on the way home and
I'm gonna buy like two or three one like exactly
like this spot. I know it's uh. I think it's
just what everyone going to do in in the summer.
And they can't wear quarter zips anymore. I whear uh
(05:12):
sleeveless quarterships with no sleeves looking like match striker. Um. Alright,
So the the Bistons are at the Kings today at
six ten. Who you got? Well, what's the line? I
I think the Kings are going to be favored by
five and a half Kings minus five and a half
Kings are River by seven and a half. All Right,
(05:33):
that was cool. That was close. I was giving too
much credit to Detroit there. Detroit has been really bad
this year. I'm not surprised that traded away Drummond. I
I might, Yeah, I know. I I think that the
fact that the line is a little bit heavier than
what I thought means that that the you know, the
books are getting a lot of King's action. Maybe maybe
I wouldn't lay the full. Maybe I'd lay first half
and and see what happened in the second. Yeah. I
(05:58):
had the first half under in the rock Its game yesterday.
That was an easy cash and the full game under
still got there. Even though, yeah, I that was that
was Yeah, No, that that was my one of my
better picks of the day. I had a feeling Brad
Stevens was going to figure out that Rockets off and
the Rockets won the game. It was actually the Rockets
defense that really played well against the Celtics offense in
(06:19):
that game, which I think was a little uh. That
was the more surprising part. That's the part of that
game that I did not handicap properly was how well
the Rockets defense would play. But you've got to give
credit to Houston. They've I'll tell Houston right now, I
might actually get to the window on the Rockets at
seven and one to win the West today. Um, I
think they're playing the better basketball of the other two
teams in the West that are kind of contending other
(06:41):
than Lakers and Clippers right now. I think Denver was
that other team. But I think the Rockets are playing
better than the Nuggets right now. And someone that's a
new viewer, it might not be as much of a
gambler as you've been for the last twenty five years.
Why would you do that knowing that the Lakers and
the Clippers or two of the better teams in the West,
and yet you're gonna go and take someone who's seven
to one, And what's your approach at the future? Is bet?
(07:02):
There great question? And the answer is simple. It's it's
it's a numbers game. So right now, the Lakers and
the Clippers are both I want I want to say
they're both slightly favored to win the Western Conference. I
don't want to say there's minus signs and others not.
So the Lakers are plus one sixty five and the
Clippers are plus one nineties. So let's say let's flash
(07:23):
forward to the Western Conference Finals, and of course this
is all contingent on Houston being able to win their
first round series, which would likely be against a six
seed maybe the Mavericks, uh, you know, a team like that,
and then in the second round they would face the
Clippers as the two seed most likely if they continue
to be the three seed. So the bet that you
need to win, that's really the big series you need
(07:43):
to win. If the Rockets can beat the Clippers in
the Western Conference Final in the Western Conference Semifinals, then
they would go to the Western Conference Finals and you'd
have them as seven to one against the Lakers team
that would likely be priced minus one fifty two minus
two hundred to win that series, so it's seven o one.
You can play off of that minus two hundred on
the other side and make a significant amount of money
(08:05):
in the hedge market if you decided to do so,
or you could let the bet ride and hope the
Rockets win. But my point is you are not going
to get that kind of value if you bet the
Lakers or the Clippers to win the West they will
likely be a very similar priced team. The Lakers are
plus one sixty five now they'll probably be minus one
sixty five if it was a series against you're kind
(08:25):
of betting on Houston to make it Astern Conference Finals. Yes,
your bet essentially to make to be profitable in this
situation is seven to one the Rockets to win two
playoff series, which is the first round against probably the
Mavericks or the sixth seed if they're staying in the three,
and then that two seeds series to three Rockets Clippers.
That is essentially your bet at seven to one. If
(08:46):
you win that series, you're seven to one bet will
be profitable. So you can't make a bet on the
Clippers or Lakers and have that same kind of value
because you have to win three series and you still
would only get sixty five cents of so if you
bet the Lakers as a profit on your on your
single line unit bet, so to me, that just just
it's a value game. It's a numbers game where I
(09:07):
think the Rockets have a chance to overachieve past their odds,
where the Lakers are a little bit over priced and
the Clippers I think are a little bit over priced
right now to win the West. So to me, if
you're getting seven to one off a one series bet,
that gives you a lot of wiggle room to play
off of that team. You could bet against the Rockets
in the series. They could win the series and lose
(09:28):
some of the games that you bet against. So there's
just a It gives you flexibility. And in this game,
when you're betting the futures markets, it's all about riding
riding that those streaks and and finding ways to buy
low and sell high. I think the Rockets right now
are that bylow team going to the Eastern Conference of
the same premise. The Bucks right now minus one six
to win the East, but then the Celtics are at
seven to one and the Raptors are at plus seven fifty.
(09:51):
Who would you take in that scenario? And there's even
the Miami Heat who are at plus eight fifty. You know,
I think Miami and Philly have significantly fallen back into
the next tier. I think there's two tiers right now.
I agree. I think there's two tiers in the Eastern
Conference right now. There's the tier there and sorry, actually
there's three tiers. There's the tier that doesn't have a
(10:12):
chance to win and I think Philly and Miami have
fallen back into that where I wouldn't be. I can't
see them getting even to the Eastern Conference Finals, nonetheless winning.
I think the second tier are the contenders, and I
think those two contenders are Toronto in Boston, and then
there's the top tier, obviously the Milwaukee Bucks. I think
there is a a significant gap between Milwaukee and those
(10:34):
other two teams in that second tier, Toronto in Boston,
but the market is not priced efficiently enough to equate
for that gap. Uh minus one two plus seven hundred
for the Celtics. That is way too big of a
spread between those two markets, between those two tiers. And
here's why Boston getting to the Eastern Conference Finals would
(10:57):
be probably plus two hundred, maybe plus one eighty in
a series against the Bucks. So essentially you're betting plus
seven hundred for the Celtics to win two rounds, and
I think they're significantly better than anyone they would face
in round one. Round two would be a good series.
Toronto Boston would probably be that two three matchup. That
would be a very good series, and maybe depending on
(11:19):
who gets home court, that could determine who wins that series.
I have significant futures picks right now on Toronto and Boston.
Those are my two positions, and I'm guessing i'd be
willing to bet that one of those teams is in
the Eastern Conference Finals. I agree, I like both those
teams as well. I think that Boston and Toronto are
definitely the two teams that will end up having to
face the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals. And I
(11:40):
do like what you were saying about Houston. I mean
between James Harden and Russell Westbrook too, really big names
on the Houston Rockets team that could help catapult them
into potentially the Western Conference Finals. However, I think that
the NBA would love to see the Clippers and the
Lakers fight it out to see who goes to the
NBA Finals. We're gonna talk about more NBA. The Raptors
are playing today, the Lakers are playing today. We'll talk
(12:02):
about those games coming up next year on at the
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(13:02):
Welcome back to at the Window. We're previewing today's NBA
slate and we were talking about the future of the
Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference and potentially the Buston Celtics,
which one of those two would go up and face
the Milwaukee Bucks for a chance in the NBA Finals.
I'm Ario Epstey and Jared Smith at the Vandals Sports Book. Jared,
the Toronto Raptors are on the road tonight at the
(13:23):
Denver Nuggets. We've been having you guess these lines before
we analyze them. What is the line in this Raptors
Nuggets game today? That's a really tough one. I don't
even know if I know the favorite in that one.
I would guess the Raptors because of what we've seen
of late, they've kind of given a couple of games back.
I would guess the Nuggets are very small favorite in
this game. Let's say Denver minus two and a half. Oh,
(13:46):
you were one off. The Nuggets are minus three and
a half, and I was hoping you didn't look at
the line because they did have it on the No,
I didn't. I have not. I have not been looking.
I've not been looking. Oh well, luckily, I'm looking at
the ice. Over Keep him on the ice. Don't let
him look at the screen. Yeah, keep me on the ice. See,
I only look at the screen hand like this. Yeah,
don't look. It's just like when we played the uh
(14:07):
what was it the wonderlick when I said don't look.
Oh yeah, So is this is this line justified with
the Nuggets favored by three and a half? Yeah? Absolutely.
I actually think the Raptor I think I kind of
like the Raptors a little bit, but I do. I
do think. I do think Denver deserves to be the
favorite because they've been a really good home team this year,
and the Raptors have not been playing well of late,
(14:28):
so I can see why there'd be a little bit
of public adjustment towards Denver um. But I kind of
like Toronto. I think Toronto is a really tough team.
I think they'll bounce back. So right now I'm gonna
look at Denver at home is twenty three and seven
this season, so it does make sense. They're a good
home team and it's not too much of a spread. However,
(14:48):
Toronto seems to always be an underdog. They're always underdogs
at home, they're always underdogs, of course on the road.
Why is Toronto so undervalued in the market. We'll be
because they're just a gritty team and everyone the public
perception on Toronto was that once Kawhi Leonard was gone,
they would never be able to ascend to the status
that they were in last year. The irony is with
(15:10):
this Toronto team. Their average is an underdog this year,
eight and eight against the number, So I don't necessarily
think that the marketplace is right on them, but I
don't think they're wrong. I think, uh, the fact that
their eight and eight is a dog this year shows
that the marketplace is exactly where it needs to be
on Toronto, which is a young or an experience scrappy
team with good young players, so they've got the experience
(15:30):
at the top. I think Sam has now become a veteran.
He's become a superstar. Kyle Lowry is a veteran. I
wouldn't put him in the superstar uh status, but He's
a really solid player. And then you've got the really
good young players, the Van Fleets, the Norman Powell's, uh, Sergebacca.
I would put him in the veteran status again. These
are really tough nosed players that can lock down defensively.
They can get big buckets in big spots. This is
(15:51):
a deep team. Toronto was one of the few teams
in the NBA that go ten eleven players deep. Chris Boucher,
as the tenth guy off the bench, is having a
great season. Terrence Davis uh, an undrafted free agent, is
gonna log a thousand minutes UH minutes almost with the
Toronto this season. This is a very deep team and
a very dangerous team uh come the playoffs. We saw
(16:11):
it against the Bucks the other night. Milwaukee won the game.
They covered the number. That's good, but we saw one
half of basketball where the Raptors absolutely shut down Janice
and company. And then the second half we saw some
hot three point shooting from Milwaukee. Marvin Williams hit a
bunch of threes in the second half. Uh and Toronto
just couldn't quite score the basketball with efficiency in the
second half of that game. And that's why Milwaukee won
and covered, But if you were gonna ask me to
(16:32):
assess a seven game series between those and two teams,
there is nothing that Milwaukee did in that game last
week that leads me to believe that they are just
gonna run through the Eastern Conference playoffs uh and not
look back on their way to the NBA Finals. They
are going to uh go up against some stiff competition.
They might face a team like Indiana in the second round.
They could face a team like Boston in the second
(16:53):
round if the standings work out, and then Toronto in
the Eastern Conference Finals. I think it will be Boston
and Milwaukee in the East Finals. I think the Celtics
are going to be the two seed in the East,
and I think it will be those two teams battling
it out in a seven game series. And I wouldn't
be rushing to jump to the window on this Bucks team.
I think they're overpriced a little bit, and I think
until they get there, they shouldn't be priced as the
(17:14):
odds on favorite. They deserve to be the best team.
They're going to be the odds on favorite. But I'm
not buying that, uh that hype right now with Milwaukee
just yet. In this Raptor's Nuggets game, to the totals
to eighteen and a half. These are two top ten defenses,
with Toronto allowing the least amount of points in the
NBA at one O six and the Nuggets are giving
up a hundred seven points two opponents this season. Is
(17:36):
do you like the total here at to eighteen and
a half? Would you go over? Would you go under?
I would say under. I think to eighteen is about right.
We've seen a lot of sluggish games in the Mile
High City this season, and I wouldn't be running to
the window on this total. To be perfectly frank, I
think I would pick the Cacers. It's so frustrating to
(17:58):
handicap totals. Yeah, And I think the way I look
at the NBA markets right now is I'm not really
running to play a lot of these individual games. I've
already established where my positions are in the NBA. I
like the prop market a lot, and I like the
undervalue prople market a lot in terms of day to
day and I like to try to find bad numbers
(18:20):
like that Rocket Celtics under the other night. I thought
that was way too high of a total. I think
the total in Toronto Denvers is about right, um, so
I probably will not be playing it. So another a
total that's on the complete flip side is the Lakers
are on the road at the Pelicans, and that's a
really high total at two thirty four and a half. However,
that's not what stood out to me because I think
(18:40):
that that's the same total are very close to what
the last matchup was between these two teams. The Lakers, though,
are laying two points on the road in New Orleans.
Is this to me? I mean, I look at this
and I say, wow, really, Pelicans are hot right now.
But the Lakers coming off of the what was the
last night's game, and I was kind of shocked by
that score and into it being as close as it was.
(19:02):
Now you have l A with Anthony Davis and Lebron
James probably is going to play up against Zion Williamson
and this Pelicans team with Brandon Ingram hot too. I
still think that just the Lakers laying two points is
really low. I agree, I used you. You don't need
me for this. You you just nailed that game right there. Uh,
(19:23):
you're you're you're you're seeing two things. You're seeing over
not an over reaction, but a reaction to what happened
last night in Memphis. And you're seeing a little bit
of play on for Zion Williamson. And we've seen this
line and we drift back towards the bigger You're right,
I actually think Ingram's point prop is a good bet
today at twenty four and a half. Both him and
(19:44):
Zion are both the twenty four and a half. Isn't
it crazy that Zion started his point prop at seventeen
and a half and it's already gone up to a
twenty four and a half in two weeks, three weeks,
his point prop has been inflated by seven points in
the market place. You can't touch the if he gets
over twenty four and a half, great, He hasn't proven
it on a night at night out basis. And he
(20:06):
also isn't a great shooter. He's an okay shoot. He's
not a great shooter. Brandon Ingram, on the other hand,
is an elite shooter and he's facing his former team.
So twenty four and a half to me is a
play on for the over there. I do like uh,
I I do like Ingram's point total prop. Uh the
game me too. I wanted it now because I think
(20:26):
that this could move. I wouldn't maybe, I don't think
it's gonna move that. Do you think that Lebron James plays? Yes, okay,
because I wasn't sure this was potentially I wasn't sure
if this had any indication that Lebron James might not play.
I was no, No, I haven't seen that. Um, I
(20:47):
everyone's gonna play from what I've seen. In fact, uh,
Anthony Davis I think definitely will play because he only
played about twenty minutes last night. And I think Frank
Vogel kind of saw the writing on the wall with
that game in Memphis early Emphis got off to a
hot start, and you actually, Lebron was the only Lakers
player that lobbed over thirty minutes last night. And that's
(21:07):
a very low number. You know, usually Davis and James
and and and the starters are well into the thirties
for the Lakers. So I was a little bit not surprised,
but it is an interesting number when you look at
the minutes total last night. I think Frank Vogel knew
and frankly, I think it was Lebron really that said listen,
We've got a big game tomorrow in New Orleans. Let's
chill tonight. Uh. You know, Memphis needed that game and
(21:29):
they got it. And and I think the Lakers have
something to prove tonight against the Pelicans. And I I
do like l A in that game. Yeah, I do too. Um.
And what about the total at two four and a half,
I'm pretty sure no, it didn't want nine uh seven.
I I think, uh, you know, I think the second
(21:50):
night of a back to back, a first half first
quarter under would be a good play there. Um. I'm
not running in the window about the full game under
because I think you know, these games have a ten
see to get away late. But I think the first
quarter under, especially with the Lakers uh in the second
game of back to back, uh, is a good play.
I saw a stat uh the first quarter under seven
and three uh in the last ten Pelicans games. New
(22:12):
Orleans starting to play a little bit better defensively as
well as their rotation has really tightened up since Zion
has come on board. We're seeing a lot more minutes
for Zion now, so the rotation by design will get
thinner because not do is not as many minutes to
go around and with Zion getting into the mix. I
really like Lonzo Ball a lot in this game to
continue to churn out assists. Uh. He is averaging nine
(22:34):
as he is. And and what we're seeing with Ball
arial is we're seeing finally a point guard uh that
is coming into his own and Drew Holiday has now
been moved to more of a scoring guard now. Drew
Holiday is still great at at finding guys uh and
dishing out of cists and was actually on a Drew
(22:55):
Holiday prop earlier this week for assists that that that
hit rather easily. And but I just think Lonzo Ball
is more of a point guard. Holiday has more of
a scoring touch to him where he can still dish,
but he looks to get his own. Ball is now
strictly the pick and roll guy with Zion, and I
think the two of them continuing to be a cohesive
unit is gonna be is gonna cause problems for a
(23:17):
lot of defenses in the NBA. Zion Williamson is the
real deal. And this is a team in the Pelicans
that if they wouldn't have gotten off to a six
and twenty to start, this is a team we'd be
talking about right now. Is a top four seed, and
they will be a top four seed I think next
season in the Western Conference, or at least the top
six seed. Uh. This is a really good Pelicans team,
and they're as talented as anyone else in the West,
you know, minus Lakers, Clippers, Rockets. Probably, I would say
(23:39):
they're the fourth most talented team in the Western Conference
right now. Record wise doesn't show it. They got off
to that dismal start, but talent wise, I think they are.
I really actually no, I'll say they are the fourth
most talented team in the Western Conference behind the Lakers, Clippers,
and Rockets. Game at eight ten, just real quickly, have
about a minute. Jared gets the line between the Washington
Lizards and the Golden State Warriors. Oh my goodness, where's
(24:02):
that game in in Golden State? Okay, so I think
Golden State can't be favored because they're just really bad.
So but Washington's bad too. Let's say Wizards minus two
and a half. You were giving them a lot of credit.
It's actually the Wizards are favored by six and a
half points on the road today. Oh my god, right
(24:24):
by six and a half. The Wizards for lakes seven
on the road. You can't get to the window with
that no way at the game of the night right
There four d p mmes during time total. They're also
too thirty one and a half between two bottom ten
defenses in the NBA. We're gonna talk about everything else
going on today, helping you out, and we'll give you
an update on the end game stuff too coming up
(24:46):
next year. On at the window, crying at St. John's today,
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(25:36):
ESPN Jeremy Fowler is reporting that the Cincinnati Bengals are
planning on using their franchise tag on wide receiver a
J Green. It hasn't been done yet because franchise tags
have not been It's not that time of year. It's
I think in a week from now. Um, so we
haven't hit approached that date yet. However, Cincinnati plans on
using it on their wide receiver who got injured in
(25:56):
the preseason and did not play all year. A J. Green.
Initial thoughts on the Bengals tagging A J. Green. I'm
fine with it. I mean, I mean, you know, we
we've decided and and we've come to the conclusion that
the NFL is strictly a business. These players are bought
and traded just like stocks are by low sell high.
What's the price, what's the value? You know where they
(26:17):
in relative to the rest of the market, and you
know that that's just that's it's just the business of
the NFL. It's become such big business that you have
to treat these players like blue chip companies, uh and,
and you have to buy and trade them accordingly. I
think A J. Green still has some good years left
in him. We've seen him his career just been decimated
by injuries. But I do think that there's a little
meat left on the bone. And you've got probably Joe Burrow,
(26:37):
maybe Joe Burrow coming in at quarterback for Cincinnati next season.
Why wouldn't a J. Green want at least one year
with a rookie quarterback. We've seen other rookie quarterbacks come
onto the scene and burst onto the scene. Uh, so
why not Joe Burrow considering what we have seen from him,
uh during his college career, especially last year at l
s U. So I'm not shocked by this. I think
Cincinnati would behoove themselves to have an elite playmate wide
(27:00):
receiver coupled in with their number one pick, Joe Burrow.
We'll see if they do in fact go that direction
in the draft, but I don't. And yeah, it's March
ten at four pm, so it's close. Yeah, so it's
next week or during two weeks. So yeah, no, I'm
I'm I'm not surprised by it. And I just hope A. J.
Green can stay on the field the like. To me,
(27:21):
that's the biggest thing is that he has to figure
out a way, uh to stay healthy. I was watching
an interview with A. J. Green that he conducted in
January with a local reporter, and the reporter said, what
would it say to you if the Bengals tagged you?
And he said, well, the initial thought is I'm not
going to turn down seventeen million dollars. However, it makes
me think that they only want me for a year
(27:41):
with someone who was injured all season and didn't play,
and then you want to see what his chemistry is
like with his new quarterback and how he might fit
into the system, which I mean A J. Green should
fit into any system because he's really talented if it
is healthy. But I understand where your frustration is that
they only want you for a year and what is
his future? Except I think that the Bengals have a
(28:03):
right to only look at him for a year because
if he can't stay healthy, then you don't want to
sign him onto a five year deal. I And again,
it's a business decision. You know they are not willing
to invest in A J. Green long term and and
and frankly, the numbers say that they shouldn't based on
how many games he's missed over the last few seasons.
So I think Cincinnati is making just like a lot
(28:24):
of teams will do over the next two weeks. They'll
make their business decisions, and certain players will adjust differently
to them, and certain players will react differently to them
based on how maybe sensitive they are. I think A J.
Green has the right attitude. He should be playing year
to year anyways, based on his situation. I don't think
A J. Green has done anything over the last three
to five seasons to warrant a long term deal. How
(28:46):
much point is it to Joe Burrow to be able
to say we're giving you a J. Green big A
big selling point. I think that needs to be part now. Granted,
I love Joe Burrow, and I think he's got all
the swag, all the moxie in the world. Uh. And
I think he's going to be a successful quarterback at
the next level regardless of hand size. Uh. And what
(29:06):
some people at this network believe about his hand size
that impacting his ability to play quarterback at the next level.
We won't go any further than that. But smaller than
Patrick Mahomes quarter inch, quarter inch? About that much? About
that much smaller? Can we can we go to the
camera here, guys, about that about that much smaller uh
(29:26):
than AJ Green's hands about a quarter of an inch,
So that's about an inch right there. That's about a
quarter of an inch. That's how much bigger uh Patrick
mahomes hands are than than Joe Burrows. If you're telling
me that that much, he's gonna have an impact on
his ability to play quarterback. I think you're crazy, But again,
we won't go any further than that. I think for
Joe Burrow, I think he's overplaying his hand a bit,
(29:47):
to be perfectly frank, no, but no pun intended there.
I don't necessarily buy what I'm hearing from his camp
and the rumblings that we're hearing, the rumors that we're hearing,
and they are just rumors. I'm not confirming any of this,
but we're hearing that he doesn't want to play for
Cincinnati and that the consensus around the league is that
he will cause problems allah Eli Manning did in San Diego.
(30:08):
If you think that, media, I'm not buying it. Yeah,
I just I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it.
I'm not buying then. I don't understand why you think
Miami is a better landing spot for you than Cincinnati.
I don't under like to me, that doesn't make sense
(30:29):
to me unless you just really like Miami is a city.
I don't understand why you think the Miami. I can't
imagine he hate Cincinnati. I mean, he grew up two
and a half half. Well, that's the only exactly to me,
that's the only reason that he doesn't want to play
for the Bengals is that he has some you know,
you know, anger or or or angst against playing in
(30:53):
his home state and he would rather be in the nicer,
warmer weather. That is the only thing I can imagine
the body. That's what I mean. It's you're you're making
a choice based on location and not the better team. Ever.
Had much rather play improved myself in the a f
C North than I would in for having to face
with the New England Patriots and having to face the
(31:15):
Jets and having I mean, I'd much rather have to
come out on top of the No, that's what I'm saying.
I'd rather prove myself. I mean, I know people want
to win. I'm talking about though, If you can come
out top out on top in the a f C North,
you're really proving yourself as a quarterback. If he's going
to contend in the a f C East, why like
(31:36):
you coming out of that? And if Tom Brady leaves
the Patriots, what are you proving that you were a
better quarterback out of a terrible division. I mean, if
I'm a competitor. I want to prove myself in a
better addition, I don't I don't know if that is
going through his head. As much as Cincinnati is gross
and ugly and I hate it and compared to Miami,
which is nice and pretty and I love it, I
mean that as an eighteen, nineteen twenty year old kid,
(31:59):
that would cross my mind. Maybe the ability to go
up against Tom Brady twice a year, if he still
stays in the division, that would be something that year old.
Did you see the video? And yesterday Julian Edelman, Tom Brady,
and Jimmy Ballen were at the Syracuse basketball game and
when they came on camera on ESPN, Julian Edelman said,
(32:22):
he's coming back, He's coming back, and Brady gave him
the well, well, Brady gave him the look like what
are you doing, Bro? There's a camera right in front
of us. What the heck? Like, don't be an idiot?
That was the look Brady gave him, like can we
not air our dirty laundry out to millions of people
on camera? Uh? That was like the old veteran quarterback
(32:42):
looking at the wide receiver being like, Bro, you were
supposed to go in there. You went out like that's
what that book was, uh, and and yeah, like if
I'm Brady, Yeah, I mean Brady's Brady's in negotiations exactly
exactly You're you're If I'm Brady. I'm a little upset.
And I don't think Tom will come back to New
(33:02):
England if if I had to predict it right now,
I really don't. I was saying, m John's is uh
starting to run away with this game? Here by the way,
Oh yeah, so a little update. They're seeing John's up
six nine is what I'm seeing. And the current line
is St. John's free throw line. Yeah, they're going to
(33:23):
the free throw line. A nice outlet play. No, I'm
pray right, I'm justna want to gloat yet. The game's
not over. But I feel really good about my handicap.
My handicap was spot on in this game. It was
I've seen crazier things happen just for someone that might
not have tuned in earlier. And now they're tuning in. Now,
what was it that you liked that you were able
to see pregame? So I just like the line was
(33:48):
moving against Creighton, but the action was in their favor.
Seven over the bets were on Creighton, but the line
was moving slightly towards St. John's. It was subtle went
back to Creighton, but it was about a point five
and a half to four and a half. I don't
really try, don't trust line movements by a hook, but
a point I could trust. I agree, and it actually
got the four at one point and then it drifted back.
(34:10):
We saw late a little bit of late public push
on Creton push it back. But the handicap for me
in this game was I didn't think Creighton's defense would
would be able to uh kind of adapt to St.
John's because it was an early game. Everyone's been talking
about Creton all week is this sleeper darling team. They
were feeling themselves a little bit. Creton's defense statistically has
not been very strong this season. Carna Seca Arena has
(34:32):
been a very play on spot for St. John's this year.
You mentioned the fact that in their two losses they
were by two points or less or two points exactly
both of them, and they're nine and two at Carna
second this season. I thought this game was at the
Garden originally, and that was even more of a play
on for St. John's For me because Creighton had not
been a team that had played well historically at the Garden,
and they're not a team that had played a lot
(34:53):
of games at the Garden. They're new to the Big East.
They don't come east very often. Uh So I thought
it was a tough spot for them. It's an eleven
Ay am start time on their body clock. You know
they're from Omaha, Nebraska, Craton, so coming east early game,
noon game. I thought plus five and a half was
a good spot for St. John's. This is yeah, this
is this is basically their super Bowl today facing a
(35:15):
Creton team that's in the top ten. So I thought
the Johnnies would get I thought you'd get the best
performance from St. John's today. We'll see if they win
the game out right. I do think that they're in
a good spot to cover the number though. And another
game I mentioned to you off air before we even
came on was South Florida at Temple. Temple's up by
one point fifty three at the moment with five minutes left,
and Temple the in game line right now is at
(35:35):
minus two and a half in Temple's favor What have
you been seeing at the book on that? And what
have the number has been telling you? Not a lot. Really,
I haven't really been monitoring that game too much. I
know st I know South Florida has not been a
team that's been very consistent this season. The other the
game that I've actually been looking at a little bit
closer has been the game between Houston uh at Cincinnati.
(35:57):
I think that game is a little bit more prominant
UH in Cincinnati and Houston. Yeaholite, we are. I think Houston.
Houston is actually in my future's portfolio. We've talked about
Kelvin Sampson and company uh in in previous shows, and
I think Houston is a I think Houston's a solid team.
And they they lost a tough game against Memphis last Saturday,
(36:21):
UH they bounced back strong from that, and and I
think Houston actually is a team that people should take
a hard look at. Once we get to the tournament.
They're gonna be one of those teams probably seeded six
or seventh, and they could be one of those six
or seven seeds that that that springs an upset in
the second round over that three seed or over the
two seed, depending on what the matchups is. But Cincinnati
is a good team you're on. Cumberland is a senior. Uh,
(36:43):
and he's the best player on Cincinnati obviously. UH. It
hasn't been as good as years passed with the Bearcats,
who have had Sweet sixteen caliber teams in the past.
I think Houston is the class of the American Conference
this season, and and and I'm gonna look to play
their futures bets uh in the American Conference tournament as well.
We'll continue to all of that game and the end
of the Cretan Saint John's game. So St. John's up
(37:03):
by four at the moment in South Florida Temple right
now is a two point game. Cincinnati Houston still in
the first half, Cincinnati in the lead. Five will keep
track of all these in game numbers coming up next
year on at the Windows. Stay tuned. Are you ready
(37:25):
for the nation's first and only free twenty four hour
network dedicated to you The betting and fantasy sports enthusiast.
Sports Grade will provide you with a real time content,
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Located both in the Hart of New York City and
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(37:48):
the fanatic. This is sports grade. Get on the grid.
(38:12):
Last segment of at the window, but where we transition
into in game live, I'm aria leftin. Jared Smith is
at the Vandal Sports Book. The Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte
Hornets are underway there in the second quarter, tied at
thirty right now, and the Bucks were laying thirteen and
a half points in this game, which seemed like a lot. However,
the highest total on the board right now is at
two forty four, which is the Dallas Life Mavericks at
(38:32):
the Minnesota Timberwolves. Really high line, Jared, crazy high. One
of the highest we've seen. Yeah, the total one of
the one of the highest totals we've seen all season.
And uh, for those of you want to wear Ralph
Michaels is one of the best stat trends you're ever here.
Uh and is so he tweeted this out and and
(38:53):
I give credit to him for finding it because it
is a crazy stat. So in the last twenty one years,
there have only been five other games with a total
set at two forty three and a half or higher.
Two of them have been this season. Both of them
have involved the Pelicans. Both of them have gone under
m So keep that in mind when you're thinking about
(39:13):
betting and over in a game like this one between
the t Wolves UH and the Mavericks, one of the
highest total in any NBA game season. I have no
idea it's too I mean, obviously it's because neither team
plays defense, and both teams have been really good offensively
this season. The t Wolves have been a little bit better.
No Karl Anthony Towns has actually meant more flow from
Minnesota's offense. And of course Dallas with the Don Check
(39:35):
and Porzingis have been very strong offensively this season, and
they don't play a lot of defense, and both teams
run at a fast pace, and they're also two teams
that are not and Porzingis to play, I would assume yes,
based on this total, right, That's what I would assume
as well. Really interesting, So if you had to take,
if you had to lean in this total, would you
(39:56):
take the under and go with the trend? Yes? H percent?
I would take the under. And I know that's scary
to bet an under in a game with a total
that high, but it's a numbers game, and I think
what we're seeing based on that specific trend is that
the numbers in certain spots, when they get to be
this frothy, are just a little bit too hot and
(40:18):
and the only play is to come under it. Or
you've watched the game and you see if you can
find a good live spot to jump in. But there's
no way that you can bet an over based on
what we've seen with the past in these two in
these trends, and the fact that both of the other
totals that were two forty three or higher this season
have gone under. The Mavericks are also favored by six
and a half on the road. Would is there any
(40:39):
correlation between the spread and the total. Yes, I think
the higher that line goes, the more points that that
the books expect to be scored. Usually I like betting
overs in games with bigger spreads because the books expect
there to be a lot of points in the game
to begin with, because of the fact that the spread
is so large. Uh, get into an NFL game, excuse me,
(41:01):
or or college football game, especially a college football game.
Say Alabama's favored by fifty points in a game, well
the total sixty, Well, you know, the books think they're
gonna score fifty at least fifty one at least to
cover that number. Where's the other nine points coming from?
And and you know, obviously the team that they're facing
is probably very poor. Uh. And that's why that line
just big, by the way about it. It It just moved
to seven the total of the line. The line moved
(41:24):
to say. Yeah, No, I mean I I the line
moved to seven. Yeah, I mean I think the home
dog there isn't a bad spot. We've seen the Hornets.
I said that thirteen and a half for a home
dog today was big. Yeah. They had to leave right
now over Milwaukee. They're off to a twelve fourth start
in the second quarter. The only home dog we care
about today though, are the Jannis, who are up seven
with six minutes to go. Wow, that's I mean, great
(41:47):
read by you. They're they're up four with seven minutes
to go. We also see that Cincinnati is up thirty
eight to Houston. And I'm looking at the end game
line and right now Cincinnati is getting one and a
half points even though they're up by two. Are always
so interesting to me, Jared, because oh a, now they're
plus three and a half of by two. Cincinnati So
when you see something like that, what are your thoughts?
(42:09):
When I know you don't want to just jump the
gun and jump in right now. But with Cincinnati up
by two and getting three and a half points, does
that ever intrigue you? It does? Actually, Uh, Brian, Brian,
can you put y sban on? I want to watch
this Houston Cincinnati game? Um, yeah, I think Cincinnati is Uh.
I thought that line was a little hot to begin with.
(42:30):
I think it was five or six pregame. And I
like Houston a lot. I think Houston is a really
good team, and I don't know if they're equipped to
cover big spreads because they're just not an explosive offensive team.
And I thought that that on the road. Uh, Cincinnati's
played decent this year, and they're coming off of a
couple of decent performances, and they've also played Houston tough
(42:51):
earlier this year, So I thought this could be a
close game. And I still think Houston is the better
team on paper, but I wouldn't be surprised if they
covered the number. And the fact that we've seen this
line compress a few points. Uh, you know, it's not
halftime yet, It's almost half time, so oh man, someone
just got teed up in this game. Uh. Cincinnati assistant
coaches really fired up about something. UM Or is that
(43:11):
the head coach. Holy moly, he just like hopped off
the bench and screamed at somebody. I think he just
got teed up. Um. Yeah. Cincinnati is a good team
and and I think both of these teams are gonna
play tough UH in March because they're both they're they're
both good defensive teams. And the American Conference, I think
is a little bit better than people think. No one's
really talking about it. This year doesn't have an elite team,
but I think it's deep UH. And and I think
(43:32):
there's some teams in there that play that play a
legitimate style UH that can that can be effective in March,
which is they slow it down, but they're very efficient offensively.
And that's why I think the American Conference could have
a couple of teams could surprise. And I think the
two teams that are playing today used in the Cincinnati
are those two teams that I would play on. I
can't believe it's two former Penn State students. We have
not spoken about the biggest game of the day, which
is Michigan Takeniano how State and No House State laying
(43:54):
four points today. Actually, your birthday on Friday was the
anniversary of Penn State upsetting Ohio State in Happy Valley
when I was a sophomore in college. So it was
a really fun memory to have because I went to
one of I was one of the only fans at
the Bryce Jordan's Centered watching Penn's Date against Ohio State
because I was working the game, and no one would
have ever thought in a million years that Pen's da
would upset a ranked oh House Date team. However, Michigan
(44:17):
at Ohouse Date today O House Date laing four points.
What are your initial thoughts on the game? Four o'clock game?
Initial thoughts? Initial thoughts are trend, you know, you know,
fade the road teams in the Big Ten. That's what
we've seen, that's been the trend this year. But I
think Michigan can be one of these teams. Sure. I
think Michigan is one of these teams that can buck
(44:37):
some of these trends because of how tough they are,
and they're coming off of a of a of a
loss that I don't want to say it's a bad loss,
but It's a game where they were favored by six
and they lost by seven. So yeah, I mean they
they got outscored on the spread by thirteen points. That's
a pretty bad loss. So uh, you know, and Wisconsin
is a good team, and I think Wisconsin was grossly
undervalued in that game and they won't be undervalued again
(44:57):
the rest of the season because people now know how
good was scot can be. But Ohio State is a
tough team, and I think Ohio State is another one
of those Big Ten teams that can surprise some people
in March. Uh. The Weston Brothers are incredibly gifted, and
I think, uh, I I think Chris altman' is a
is A is a great coach, and and I think
the Big Ten is littered with great coaches. And I
(45:18):
don't think the coaching gets enough credit in the Big
Ten because of how tough the league is. These teams
cannibalize each other between January and March, and then they
get to the light at the end of the tunnel.
Uh in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Tournament, and some
people don't know what's what because it's been such a gruesome, grinding, uh,
you know, gauntlet. Uh. For this regular season in this conference.
(45:41):
But what it does is it makes these teams tournament tested.
The hottest fire forge is the strongest steel area. These
teams when they get to Indianapolis, they are ready to roll.
And I think Ohio States one of those teams. I
think there's five or six teams in the Big ten
UH that can have a legitimate shot to make the
Final four, and a couple of them I think have
legitimate shots to cut down the nets, and I think
Ohio State has the talent to be one of them.
(46:02):
I just think, can they put it together for four
or five six games in a row, we'll see. You know,
they're they're They're in a tough stretch in their schedule
right now. I was looking at Ohiose States schedule earlier.
So they beat Maryland, that was a big win last Sunday.
We talked about that game last Sunday on the show.
Then they beat Nebraska on the road, which is a
relatively easy win for them. But here's their last three games,
Michigan Illinois at Michigan State. We're gonna know a lot
(46:25):
about Ohio State over the last week of the season.
And we talked about not reading too much into these
last regular season games, but the Big Ten, every game
is like a conference tournament game, So every game is important.
And I think Ohio State is going to be tested
over the teams that was on the road and ended
up beating Michigan in in ourbor. They ended up winning
(46:46):
the last time they faced them on February four, So
they're one of the few home teams and road teams
that was able to win on the road. Ohio State exactly.
You know, I'll tell you what Ohio States one team
I have overlooked in the futures market this year. I
have a futures play on Michigan. I have a futures
play on Michigan State. I even have a small futures
play on Penn State. UH. I have overlooked Ohio State
(47:09):
in the market. I've overlooked Wisconsin in the market. I
I think, I I hope those two UH you know,
I don't want to say inconsistencies, but I I hope
those two UH teams don't don't come back to bite
me because I think those are two really good teams.
And and you know, we can't play every team in
the futures market because we won't win anything if if
one of our team's hits, but I think Wisconsin and
(47:31):
Ohio State, I think there's some value there by the
way St. Johns is of eight team, They're gonna win
this game out right going away, and the handicap was
spot on with this one. St. John's gonna drop a
hundred points in against Creighton's defense today. Nothing because it's
a tough game. And again it's a tough spot for
the Blue Jays. But you saw why Crighton is not
(47:52):
a tournament championship contender. They are not defensively sound enough
to win six straight games. They're defensively sound enough to
win one or two games in a row because they
get hot from three and it's sixty two one where
I bought Crighton that if they get to the sweet sixteen,
I feel like I made a good bet. But I
don't think they're good enough to win the national championship
because of what we're seeing today. I don't think they're
(48:13):
I don't think they can start their thirty two one
right now for the championship. Yeah, I got him at
sixty two one two weeks ago. So the closing line
values there and I think they'll and I think they're closing.
Line value will continue uh to to decrease as we
get into March, because they're gonna be a top four seed.
But this is a shot across the bow for Blue
Jay's backers. Today. They don't have the defense that can
(48:34):
really shut down a good offense, and in March that's
a problem. So we have just about two minutes left
and then we're going to transition into in game live. However,
before we've finished our segment, here on at the window,
my best bet of the day is the Los Angeles
Lakers laying two points on the road at the New
Orleans Pelicans. I'm digging the Lakers. It took them last night.
They disappointed me. I don't think that the Lakers are
(48:55):
going to disappoint me for a second night in a row.
So give me l a tonight in New Orleans. Jared,
what's your best bet? That's not John? I mean, I wish,
I wish I was gonna say, come on, yeah, it
should be right now, and I want I'll give another
best bet because I want to give the viewers something fun. Um, Okay,
(49:17):
let's talk about let's talk about the prop market uh in.
In this Lakers Pelicans game. We gave it out a
little bit earlier, but I want to reinforce the point
that brandon Ingram against his former team is not getting
enough off and the fact that him and Zion Williamson
are both priced the same in the point prop market
is a bit of a miscalculation there. I'll take brandon
Ingram over twenty four and a half points tonight. I
(49:37):
got this former team. I love that the Kinston kid,
brandon Ingram. Garret and I have got you covered. For
the next two hours on In Game Live, will be
seeing the end of this Saint John straighton game we
used in Cincinnati game, and we have some NBA action
as well with the Milwaukee Bucks on the road at
the Charlotte Hornet. Stay tuned in Game Live coming up
next
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
listen live, all you have to do is download the
I Heart Radio app and search for Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Also,
if you want to catch this show on video, for
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that's where you can find sports Grids Fantasy Sports Network.
Enjoy the show and thanks so much for listening. The Window.
(00:27):
I want all of you to get up out of
your chairs, go to the window, open it and stick
your head out of here. Our number two about the
window on this fantastic March First, I'm Ariel Eves seen
(00:48):
here at Studio thirty four in Midtown Manhattan. Jarret Smith
is at the Vandal Sports Book where when it's March
feet at the Vandal Sports Book. Let me tell you
it is one of the most exciting things to be
a part of. It's one of the things where you
walk in, you look it says March first, and you say, wow,
I'm going to be stuck here for the next two
months between the March madness craziness, the NBA Playoffs coming up,
(01:12):
the XFL Championship coming up. It is such an exciting
time for futures. We're talking about today's game. But Jared,
how has the Vandal Sports Book been on this amazing
March first day. Well, we've got actually the Maryland Jockey
Club is about to start a race. I'm watching Gulf Stream.
I've got the honey, We've got the ponies here. We've
(01:33):
got everything going on today, are l I think Sunday's
like this is like they need to come up with
a brunch service. I feel like the millennial flock here
if they offered like a Sunday brunch at the book
right that that's some mimosas yea Formosa's bloody Mary's on
a Sunday and chill out watching the college hoops, especially
(01:54):
March Madness time and tired. We need to be there,
I mean twelve o'clock tip, you need to be there. Well,
they've got you stuck in the studio area. We have
got to talk to the We've got to talk to
the powers that be to get us both here at
the book for the March Madness games coming up. Especially.
I mean I was talking to our people at the
bar over here at Versa in the Renaissance Hotel, and
(02:15):
they said they're going to try to get us a
budget because we're here so much. I agree. I think
that that's Yeah. No, I think open bar is the
only is the only solution there. Yeah, for March madness, craziness,
I mean, we're gonna be losing our minds. It's almost
impossible to pick a perfect bracket. The conference tournaments are
gonna be awesome. We said we want to go to
the Big East Tournament because it's going to be right
here in our own backyard. It's going to be intense.
(02:37):
We were just talking about some NBA games. We spoke
about college at basketball for the whole first hour. Essentially,
what we've been doing is Jared's been trying to get
these NBA lines, and he's actually been pretty close to
hitting a lot of the issue has just been been
doing well in the NBA. No, College, you came within
two points of Everge. Yeah. College I think is a
(02:58):
little easier. But the NBA it's fun. And we talked
about it during the break. I think this is a
more fun and entertaining way than just to go through
each game and and go through the matchups, because it
gives us a chance to make a bet without without
betting on the game. Where I'm betting on what I
think the line is gonna be. It's like I'm betting
on the game when you're when you're kind of wrong,
you can assess why from the initial thought of looking
(03:21):
at the match up exactly. Okay, so this one is
I'm sure the matchup you're actually really intrigued by, and
the matchup that you've been counting down the days until
the Detroit Pistons are at the Sacramento Kings. Yeah, the
Kings have been playing really well. Yeah. Actually, the Kings
have been one of the hottest teams out at the
All Star Break. Yeah. I want to say they've won
(03:42):
seven of eleven. I think they've covered an eight of
eight of eight of those, I think they covered because
they want and didn't they lost and didn't cover the
other His arms crossed, his eyes half over and I
had to, uh, I had to, you know, get get
over the leather jack could face today. Funny you said
that because I was actually just looking at you through
(04:05):
our screen here and I said, I was about to
say you decided to go with the quarter zip without
the leather jacket today, and it kind of kind of
registered at the same time you were saying it. Our
guys over at the Versa bar said the need He's
going to come in here and like completely revamp our
on air staff and how they dressed because he's actually
(04:26):
convinced that there is an entire clothing store of quarter
zip sweaters in our downstairs room. You know what the
funny thing is, and you'll laugh for about this. So
it's my way here. I don't like. I don't like
driving back into the city right at four o'clock as
the traffics pat So a lot of times I hang
in Jersey for a little bit. I had thought to myself,
(04:48):
you know, I really need some more quarter zips for work.
I'm stopping at the mall on the way home and
I'm gonna buy like two or three one like exactly
like this spot. I know it's uh. I think it's
just what everyone going to do in in the summer.
And they can't wear quarter zips anymore. I whear uh
(05:12):
sleeveless quarterships with no sleeves looking like match striker. Um. Alright,
So the the Bistons are at the Kings today at
six ten. Who you got? Well, what's the line? I
I think the Kings are going to be favored by
five and a half Kings minus five and a half
Kings are River by seven and a half. All Right,
(05:33):
that was cool. That was close. I was giving too
much credit to Detroit there. Detroit has been really bad
this year. I'm not surprised that traded away Drummond. I
I might, Yeah, I know. I I think that the
fact that the line is a little bit heavier than
what I thought means that that the you know, the
books are getting a lot of King's action. Maybe maybe
I wouldn't lay the full. Maybe I'd lay first half
and and see what happened in the second. Yeah. I
(05:58):
had the first half under in the rock Its game yesterday.
That was an easy cash and the full game under
still got there. Even though, yeah, I that was that
was Yeah, No, that that was my one of my
better picks of the day. I had a feeling Brad
Stevens was going to figure out that Rockets off and
the Rockets won the game. It was actually the Rockets
defense that really played well against the Celtics offense in
(06:19):
that game, which I think was a little uh. That
was the more surprising part. That's the part of that
game that I did not handicap properly was how well
the Rockets defense would play. But you've got to give
credit to Houston. They've I'll tell Houston right now, I
might actually get to the window on the Rockets at
seven and one to win the West today. Um, I
think they're playing the better basketball of the other two
teams in the West that are kind of contending other
(06:41):
than Lakers and Clippers right now. I think Denver was
that other team. But I think the Rockets are playing
better than the Nuggets right now. And someone that's a
new viewer, it might not be as much of a
gambler as you've been for the last twenty five years.
Why would you do that knowing that the Lakers and
the Clippers or two of the better teams in the West,
and yet you're gonna go and take someone who's seven
to one, And what's your approach at the future? Is bet?
(07:02):
There great question? And the answer is simple. It's it's
it's a numbers game. So right now, the Lakers and
the Clippers are both I want I want to say
they're both slightly favored to win the Western Conference. I
don't want to say there's minus signs and others not.
So the Lakers are plus one sixty five and the
Clippers are plus one nineties. So let's say let's flash
(07:23):
forward to the Western Conference Finals, and of course this
is all contingent on Houston being able to win their
first round series, which would likely be against a six
seed maybe the Mavericks, uh, you know, a team like that,
and then in the second round they would face the
Clippers as the two seed most likely if they continue
to be the three seed. So the bet that you
need to win, that's really the big series you need
(07:43):
to win. If the Rockets can beat the Clippers in
the Western Conference Final in the Western Conference Semifinals, then
they would go to the Western Conference Finals and you'd
have them as seven to one against the Lakers team
that would likely be priced minus one fifty two minus
two hundred to win that series, so it's seven o one.
You can play off of that minus two hundred on
the other side and make a significant amount of money
(08:05):
in the hedge market if you decided to do so,
or you could let the bet ride and hope the
Rockets win. But my point is you are not going
to get that kind of value if you bet the
Lakers or the Clippers to win the West they will
likely be a very similar priced team. The Lakers are
plus one sixty five now they'll probably be minus one
sixty five if it was a series against you're kind
(08:25):
of betting on Houston to make it Astern Conference Finals. Yes,
your bet essentially to make to be profitable in this
situation is seven to one the Rockets to win two
playoff series, which is the first round against probably the
Mavericks or the sixth seed if they're staying in the three,
and then that two seeds series to three Rockets Clippers.
That is essentially your bet at seven to one. If
(08:46):
you win that series, you're seven to one bet will
be profitable. So you can't make a bet on the
Clippers or Lakers and have that same kind of value
because you have to win three series and you still
would only get sixty five cents of so if you
bet the Lakers as a profit on your on your
single line unit bet, so to me, that just just
it's a value game. It's a numbers game where I
(09:07):
think the Rockets have a chance to overachieve past their odds,
where the Lakers are a little bit over priced and
the Clippers I think are a little bit over priced
right now to win the West. So to me, if
you're getting seven to one off a one series bet,
that gives you a lot of wiggle room to play
off of that team. You could bet against the Rockets
in the series. They could win the series and lose
(09:28):
some of the games that you bet against. So there's
just a It gives you flexibility. And in this game,
when you're betting the futures markets, it's all about riding
riding that those streaks and and finding ways to buy
low and sell high. I think the Rockets right now
are that bylow team going to the Eastern Conference of
the same premise. The Bucks right now minus one six
to win the East, but then the Celtics are at
seven to one and the Raptors are at plus seven fifty.
(09:51):
Who would you take in that scenario? And there's even
the Miami Heat who are at plus eight fifty. You know,
I think Miami and Philly have significantly fallen back into
the next tier. I think there's two tiers right now.
I agree. I think there's two tiers in the Eastern
Conference right now. There's the tier there and sorry, actually
there's three tiers. There's the tier that doesn't have a
(10:12):
chance to win and I think Philly and Miami have
fallen back into that where I wouldn't be. I can't
see them getting even to the Eastern Conference Finals, nonetheless winning.
I think the second tier are the contenders, and I
think those two contenders are Toronto in Boston, and then
there's the top tier, obviously the Milwaukee Bucks. I think
there is a a significant gap between Milwaukee and those
(10:34):
other two teams in that second tier, Toronto in Boston,
but the market is not priced efficiently enough to equate
for that gap. Uh minus one two plus seven hundred
for the Celtics. That is way too big of a
spread between those two markets, between those two tiers. And
here's why Boston getting to the Eastern Conference Finals would
(10:57):
be probably plus two hundred, maybe plus one eighty in
a series against the Bucks. So essentially you're betting plus
seven hundred for the Celtics to win two rounds, and
I think they're significantly better than anyone they would face
in round one. Round two would be a good series.
Toronto Boston would probably be that two three matchup. That
would be a very good series, and maybe depending on
(11:19):
who gets home court, that could determine who wins that series.
I have significant futures picks right now on Toronto and Boston.
Those are my two positions, and I'm guessing i'd be
willing to bet that one of those teams is in
the Eastern Conference Finals. I agree, I like both those
teams as well. I think that Boston and Toronto are
definitely the two teams that will end up having to
face the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals. And I
(11:40):
do like what you were saying about Houston. I mean
between James Harden and Russell Westbrook too, really big names
on the Houston Rockets team that could help catapult them
into potentially the Western Conference Finals. However, I think that
the NBA would love to see the Clippers and the
Lakers fight it out to see who goes to the
NBA Finals. We're gonna talk about more NBA. The Raptors
are playing today, the Lakers are playing today. We'll talk
(12:02):
about those games coming up next year on at the
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(12:25):
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(13:02):
Welcome back to at the Window. We're previewing today's NBA
slate and we were talking about the future of the
Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference and potentially the Buston Celtics,
which one of those two would go up and face
the Milwaukee Bucks for a chance in the NBA Finals.
I'm Ario Epstey and Jared Smith at the Vandals Sports Book. Jared,
the Toronto Raptors are on the road tonight at the
(13:23):
Denver Nuggets. We've been having you guess these lines before
we analyze them. What is the line in this Raptors
Nuggets game today? That's a really tough one. I don't
even know if I know the favorite in that one.
I would guess the Raptors because of what we've seen
of late, they've kind of given a couple of games back.
I would guess the Nuggets are very small favorite in
this game. Let's say Denver minus two and a half. Oh,
(13:46):
you were one off. The Nuggets are minus three and
a half, and I was hoping you didn't look at
the line because they did have it on the No,
I didn't. I have not. I have not been looking.
I've not been looking. Oh well, luckily, I'm looking at
the ice. Over Keep him on the ice. Don't let
him look at the screen. Yeah, keep me on the ice. See,
I only look at the screen hand like this. Yeah,
don't look. It's just like when we played the uh
(14:07):
what was it the wonderlick when I said don't look.
Oh yeah, So is this is this line justified with
the Nuggets favored by three and a half? Yeah? Absolutely.
I actually think the Raptor I think I kind of
like the Raptors a little bit, but I do. I
do think. I do think Denver deserves to be the
favorite because they've been a really good home team this year,
and the Raptors have not been playing well of late,
(14:28):
so I can see why there'd be a little bit
of public adjustment towards Denver um. But I kind of
like Toronto. I think Toronto is a really tough team.
I think they'll bounce back. So right now I'm gonna
look at Denver at home is twenty three and seven
this season, so it does make sense. They're a good
home team and it's not too much of a spread. However,
(14:48):
Toronto seems to always be an underdog. They're always underdogs
at home, they're always underdogs, of course on the road.
Why is Toronto so undervalued in the market. We'll be
because they're just a gritty team and everyone the public
perception on Toronto was that once Kawhi Leonard was gone,
they would never be able to ascend to the status
that they were in last year. The irony is with
(15:10):
this Toronto team. Their average is an underdog this year,
eight and eight against the number, So I don't necessarily
think that the marketplace is right on them, but I
don't think they're wrong. I think, uh, the fact that
their eight and eight is a dog this year shows
that the marketplace is exactly where it needs to be
on Toronto, which is a young or an experience scrappy
team with good young players, so they've got the experience
(15:30):
at the top. I think Sam has now become a veteran.
He's become a superstar. Kyle Lowry is a veteran. I
wouldn't put him in the superstar uh status, but He's
a really solid player. And then you've got the really
good young players, the Van Fleets, the Norman Powell's, uh, Sergebacca.
I would put him in the veteran status again. These
are really tough nosed players that can lock down defensively.
They can get big buckets in big spots. This is
(15:51):
a deep team. Toronto was one of the few teams
in the NBA that go ten eleven players deep. Chris Boucher,
as the tenth guy off the bench, is having a
great season. Terrence Davis uh, an undrafted free agent, is
gonna log a thousand minutes UH minutes almost with the
Toronto this season. This is a very deep team and
a very dangerous team uh come the playoffs. We saw
(16:11):
it against the Bucks the other night. Milwaukee won the game.
They covered the number. That's good, but we saw one
half of basketball where the Raptors absolutely shut down Janice
and company. And then the second half we saw some
hot three point shooting from Milwaukee. Marvin Williams hit a
bunch of threes in the second half. Uh and Toronto
just couldn't quite score the basketball with efficiency in the
second half of that game. And that's why Milwaukee won
and covered, But if you were gonna ask me to
(16:32):
assess a seven game series between those and two teams,
there is nothing that Milwaukee did in that game last
week that leads me to believe that they are just
gonna run through the Eastern Conference playoffs uh and not
look back on their way to the NBA Finals. They
are going to uh go up against some stiff competition.
They might face a team like Indiana in the second round.
They could face a team like Boston in the second
(16:53):
round if the standings work out, and then Toronto in
the Eastern Conference Finals. I think it will be Boston
and Milwaukee in the East Finals. I think the Celtics
are going to be the two seed in the East,
and I think it will be those two teams battling
it out in a seven game series. And I wouldn't
be rushing to jump to the window on this Bucks team.
I think they're overpriced a little bit, and I think
until they get there, they shouldn't be priced as the
(17:14):
odds on favorite. They deserve to be the best team.
They're going to be the odds on favorite. But I'm
not buying that, uh that hype right now with Milwaukee
just yet. In this Raptor's Nuggets game, to the totals
to eighteen and a half. These are two top ten defenses,
with Toronto allowing the least amount of points in the
NBA at one O six and the Nuggets are giving
up a hundred seven points two opponents this season. Is
(17:36):
do you like the total here at to eighteen and
a half? Would you go over? Would you go under?
I would say under. I think to eighteen is about right.
We've seen a lot of sluggish games in the Mile
High City this season, and I wouldn't be running to
the window on this total. To be perfectly frank, I
think I would pick the Cacers. It's so frustrating to
(17:58):
handicap totals. Yeah, And I think the way I look
at the NBA markets right now is I'm not really
running to play a lot of these individual games. I've
already established where my positions are in the NBA. I
like the prop market a lot, and I like the
undervalue prople market a lot in terms of day to
day and I like to try to find bad numbers
(18:20):
like that Rocket Celtics under the other night. I thought
that was way too high of a total. I think
the total in Toronto Denvers is about right, um, so
I probably will not be playing it. So another a
total that's on the complete flip side is the Lakers
are on the road at the Pelicans, and that's a
really high total at two thirty four and a half. However,
that's not what stood out to me because I think
(18:40):
that that's the same total are very close to what
the last matchup was between these two teams. The Lakers, though,
are laying two points on the road in New Orleans.
Is this to me? I mean, I look at this
and I say, wow, really, Pelicans are hot right now.
But the Lakers coming off of the what was the
last night's game, and I was kind of shocked by
that score and into it being as close as it was.
(19:02):
Now you have l A with Anthony Davis and Lebron
James probably is going to play up against Zion Williamson
and this Pelicans team with Brandon Ingram hot too. I
still think that just the Lakers laying two points is
really low. I agree, I used you. You don't need
me for this. You you just nailed that game right there. Uh,
(19:23):
you're you're you're you're seeing two things. You're seeing over
not an over reaction, but a reaction to what happened
last night in Memphis. And you're seeing a little bit
of play on for Zion Williamson. And we've seen this
line and we drift back towards the bigger You're right,
I actually think Ingram's point prop is a good bet
today at twenty four and a half. Both him and
(19:44):
Zion are both the twenty four and a half. Isn't
it crazy that Zion started his point prop at seventeen
and a half and it's already gone up to a
twenty four and a half in two weeks, three weeks,
his point prop has been inflated by seven points in
the market place. You can't touch the if he gets
over twenty four and a half, great, He hasn't proven
it on a night at night out basis. And he
(20:06):
also isn't a great shooter. He's an okay shoot. He's
not a great shooter. Brandon Ingram, on the other hand,
is an elite shooter and he's facing his former team.
So twenty four and a half to me is a
play on for the over there. I do like uh,
I I do like Ingram's point total prop. Uh the
game me too. I wanted it now because I think
(20:26):
that this could move. I wouldn't maybe, I don't think
it's gonna move that. Do you think that Lebron James plays? Yes, okay,
because I wasn't sure this was potentially I wasn't sure
if this had any indication that Lebron James might not play.
I was no, No, I haven't seen that. Um, I
(20:47):
everyone's gonna play from what I've seen. In fact, uh,
Anthony Davis I think definitely will play because he only
played about twenty minutes last night. And I think Frank
Vogel kind of saw the writing on the wall with
that game in Memphis early Emphis got off to a
hot start, and you actually, Lebron was the only Lakers
player that lobbed over thirty minutes last night. And that's
(21:07):
a very low number. You know, usually Davis and James
and and and the starters are well into the thirties
for the Lakers. So I was a little bit not surprised,
but it is an interesting number when you look at
the minutes total last night. I think Frank Vogel knew
and frankly, I think it was Lebron really that said listen,
We've got a big game tomorrow in New Orleans. Let's
chill tonight. Uh. You know, Memphis needed that game and
(21:29):
they got it. And and I think the Lakers have
something to prove tonight against the Pelicans. And I I
do like l A in that game. Yeah, I do too. Um.
And what about the total at two four and a half,
I'm pretty sure no, it didn't want nine uh seven.
I I think, uh, you know, I think the second
(21:50):
night of a back to back, a first half first
quarter under would be a good play there. Um. I'm
not running in the window about the full game under
because I think you know, these games have a ten
see to get away late. But I think the first
quarter under, especially with the Lakers uh in the second
game of back to back, uh, is a good play.
I saw a stat uh the first quarter under seven
and three uh in the last ten Pelicans games. New
(22:12):
Orleans starting to play a little bit better defensively as
well as their rotation has really tightened up since Zion
has come on board. We're seeing a lot more minutes
for Zion now, so the rotation by design will get
thinner because not do is not as many minutes to
go around and with Zion getting into the mix. I
really like Lonzo Ball a lot in this game to
continue to churn out assists. Uh. He is averaging nine
(22:34):
as he is. And and what we're seeing with Ball
arial is we're seeing finally a point guard uh that
is coming into his own and Drew Holiday has now
been moved to more of a scoring guard now. Drew
Holiday is still great at at finding guys uh and
dishing out of cists and was actually on a Drew
(22:55):
Holiday prop earlier this week for assists that that that
hit rather easily. And but I just think Lonzo Ball
is more of a point guard. Holiday has more of
a scoring touch to him where he can still dish,
but he looks to get his own. Ball is now
strictly the pick and roll guy with Zion, and I
think the two of them continuing to be a cohesive
unit is gonna be is gonna cause problems for a
(23:17):
lot of defenses in the NBA. Zion Williamson is the
real deal. And this is a team in the Pelicans
that if they wouldn't have gotten off to a six
and twenty to start, this is a team we'd be
talking about right now. Is a top four seed, and
they will be a top four seed I think next
season in the Western Conference, or at least the top
six seed. Uh. This is a really good Pelicans team,
and they're as talented as anyone else in the West,
you know, minus Lakers, Clippers, Rockets. Probably, I would say
(23:39):
they're the fourth most talented team in the Western Conference
right now. Record wise doesn't show it. They got off
to that dismal start, but talent wise, I think they are.
I really actually no, I'll say they are the fourth
most talented team in the Western Conference behind the Lakers, Clippers,
and Rockets. Game at eight ten, just real quickly, have
about a minute. Jared gets the line between the Washington
Lizards and the Golden State Warriors. Oh my goodness, where's
(24:02):
that game in in Golden State? Okay, so I think
Golden State can't be favored because they're just really bad.
So but Washington's bad too. Let's say Wizards minus two
and a half. You were giving them a lot of credit.
It's actually the Wizards are favored by six and a
half points on the road today. Oh my god, right
(24:24):
by six and a half. The Wizards for lakes seven
on the road. You can't get to the window with
that no way at the game of the night right
There four d p mmes during time total. They're also
too thirty one and a half between two bottom ten
defenses in the NBA. We're gonna talk about everything else
going on today, helping you out, and we'll give you
an update on the end game stuff too coming up
(24:46):
next year. On at the window, crying at St. John's today,
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(25:08):
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Visit Daily Rodal dot com backslash dunk to learn more.
(25:36):
ESPN Jeremy Fowler is reporting that the Cincinnati Bengals are
planning on using their franchise tag on wide receiver a
J Green. It hasn't been done yet because franchise tags
have not been It's not that time of year. It's
I think in a week from now. Um, so we
haven't hit approached that date yet. However, Cincinnati plans on
using it on their wide receiver who got injured in
(25:56):
the preseason and did not play all year. A J. Green.
Initial thoughts on the Bengals tagging A J. Green. I'm
fine with it. I mean, I mean, you know, we
we've decided and and we've come to the conclusion that
the NFL is strictly a business. These players are bought
and traded just like stocks are by low sell high.
What's the price, what's the value? You know where they
(26:17):
in relative to the rest of the market, and you
know that that's just that's it's just the business of
the NFL. It's become such big business that you have
to treat these players like blue chip companies, uh and,
and you have to buy and trade them accordingly. I
think A J. Green still has some good years left
in him. We've seen him his career just been decimated
by injuries. But I do think that there's a little
meat left on the bone. And you've got probably Joe Burrow,
(26:37):
maybe Joe Burrow coming in at quarterback for Cincinnati next season.
Why wouldn't a J. Green want at least one year
with a rookie quarterback. We've seen other rookie quarterbacks come
onto the scene and burst onto the scene. Uh, so
why not Joe Burrow considering what we have seen from him,
uh during his college career, especially last year at l
s U. So I'm not shocked by this. I think
Cincinnati would behoove themselves to have an elite playmate wide
(27:00):
receiver coupled in with their number one pick, Joe Burrow.
We'll see if they do in fact go that direction
in the draft, but I don't. And yeah, it's March
ten at four pm, so it's close. Yeah, so it's
next week or during two weeks. So yeah, no, I'm
I'm I'm not surprised by it. And I just hope A. J.
Green can stay on the field the like. To me,
(27:21):
that's the biggest thing is that he has to figure
out a way, uh to stay healthy. I was watching
an interview with A. J. Green that he conducted in
January with a local reporter, and the reporter said, what
would it say to you if the Bengals tagged you?
And he said, well, the initial thought is I'm not
going to turn down seventeen million dollars. However, it makes
me think that they only want me for a year
(27:41):
with someone who was injured all season and didn't play,
and then you want to see what his chemistry is
like with his new quarterback and how he might fit
into the system, which I mean A J. Green should
fit into any system because he's really talented if it
is healthy. But I understand where your frustration is that
they only want you for a year and what is
his future? Except I think that the Bengals have a
(28:03):
right to only look at him for a year because
if he can't stay healthy, then you don't want to
sign him onto a five year deal. I And again,
it's a business decision. You know they are not willing
to invest in A J. Green long term and and
and frankly, the numbers say that they shouldn't based on
how many games he's missed over the last few seasons.
So I think Cincinnati is making just like a lot
(28:24):
of teams will do over the next two weeks. They'll
make their business decisions, and certain players will adjust differently
to them, and certain players will react differently to them
based on how maybe sensitive they are. I think A J.
Green has the right attitude. He should be playing year
to year anyways, based on his situation. I don't think
A J. Green has done anything over the last three
to five seasons to warrant a long term deal. How
(28:46):
much point is it to Joe Burrow to be able
to say we're giving you a J. Green big A
big selling point. I think that needs to be part now. Granted,
I love Joe Burrow, and I think he's got all
the swag, all the moxie in the world. Uh. And
I think he's going to be a successful quarterback at
the next level regardless of hand size. Uh. And what
(29:06):
some people at this network believe about his hand size
that impacting his ability to play quarterback at the next level.
We won't go any further than that. But smaller than
Patrick Mahomes quarter inch, quarter inch? About that much? About
that much smaller? Can we can we go to the
camera here, guys, about that about that much smaller uh
(29:26):
than AJ Green's hands about a quarter of an inch,
So that's about an inch right there. That's about a
quarter of an inch. That's how much bigger uh Patrick
mahomes hands are than than Joe Burrows. If you're telling
me that that much, he's gonna have an impact on
his ability to play quarterback. I think you're crazy, But again,
we won't go any further than that. I think for
Joe Burrow, I think he's overplaying his hand a bit,
(29:47):
to be perfectly frank, no, but no pun intended there.
I don't necessarily buy what I'm hearing from his camp
and the rumblings that we're hearing, the rumors that we're hearing,
and they are just rumors. I'm not confirming any of this,
but we're hearing that he doesn't want to play for
Cincinnati and that the consensus around the league is that
he will cause problems allah Eli Manning did in San Diego.
(30:08):
If you think that, media, I'm not buying it. Yeah,
I just I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it.
I'm not buying then. I don't understand why you think
Miami is a better landing spot for you than Cincinnati.
I don't under like to me, that doesn't make sense
(30:29):
to me unless you just really like Miami is a city.
I don't understand why you think the Miami. I can't
imagine he hate Cincinnati. I mean, he grew up two
and a half half. Well, that's the only exactly to me,
that's the only reason that he doesn't want to play
for the Bengals is that he has some you know,
you know, anger or or or angst against playing in
(30:53):
his home state and he would rather be in the nicer,
warmer weather. That is the only thing I can imagine
the body. That's what I mean. It's you're you're making
a choice based on location and not the better team. Ever.
Had much rather play improved myself in the a f
C North than I would in for having to face
with the New England Patriots and having to face the
(31:15):
Jets and having I mean, I'd much rather have to
come out on top of the No, that's what I'm saying.
I'd rather prove myself. I mean, I know people want
to win. I'm talking about though, If you can come
out top out on top in the a f C North,
you're really proving yourself as a quarterback. If he's going
to contend in the a f C East, why like
(31:36):
you coming out of that? And if Tom Brady leaves
the Patriots, what are you proving that you were a
better quarterback out of a terrible division. I mean, if
I'm a competitor. I want to prove myself in a
better addition, I don't I don't know if that is
going through his head. As much as Cincinnati is gross
and ugly and I hate it and compared to Miami,
which is nice and pretty and I love it, I
mean that as an eighteen, nineteen twenty year old kid,
(31:59):
that would cross my mind. Maybe the ability to go
up against Tom Brady twice a year, if he still
stays in the division, that would be something that year old.
Did you see the video? And yesterday Julian Edelman, Tom Brady,
and Jimmy Ballen were at the Syracuse basketball game and
when they came on camera on ESPN, Julian Edelman said,
(32:22):
he's coming back, He's coming back, and Brady gave him
the well, well, Brady gave him the look like what
are you doing, Bro? There's a camera right in front
of us. What the heck? Like, don't be an idiot?
That was the look Brady gave him, like can we
not air our dirty laundry out to millions of people
on camera? Uh? That was like the old veteran quarterback
(32:42):
looking at the wide receiver being like, Bro, you were
supposed to go in there. You went out like that's
what that book was, uh, and and yeah, like if
I'm Brady, Yeah, I mean Brady's Brady's in negotiations exactly
exactly You're you're If I'm Brady. I'm a little upset.
And I don't think Tom will come back to New
(33:02):
England if if I had to predict it right now,
I really don't. I was saying, m John's is uh
starting to run away with this game? Here by the way,
Oh yeah, so a little update. They're seeing John's up
six nine is what I'm seeing. And the current line
is St. John's free throw line. Yeah, they're going to
(33:23):
the free throw line. A nice outlet play. No, I'm
pray right, I'm justna want to gloat yet. The game's
not over. But I feel really good about my handicap.
My handicap was spot on in this game. It was
I've seen crazier things happen just for someone that might
not have tuned in earlier. And now they're tuning in. Now,
what was it that you liked that you were able
to see pregame? So I just like the line was
(33:48):
moving against Creighton, but the action was in their favor.
Seven over the bets were on Creighton, but the line
was moving slightly towards St. John's. It was subtle went
back to Creighton, but it was about a point five
and a half to four and a half. I don't
really try, don't trust line movements by a hook, but
a point I could trust. I agree, and it actually
got the four at one point and then it drifted back.
(34:10):
We saw late a little bit of late public push
on Creton push it back. But the handicap for me
in this game was I didn't think Creighton's defense would
would be able to uh kind of adapt to St.
John's because it was an early game. Everyone's been talking
about Creton all week is this sleeper darling team. They
were feeling themselves a little bit. Creton's defense statistically has
not been very strong this season. Carna Seca Arena has
(34:32):
been a very play on spot for St. John's this year.
You mentioned the fact that in their two losses they
were by two points or less or two points exactly
both of them, and they're nine and two at Carna
second this season. I thought this game was at the
Garden originally, and that was even more of a play
on for St. John's For me because Creighton had not
been a team that had played well historically at the Garden,
and they're not a team that had played a lot
(34:53):
of games at the Garden. They're new to the Big East.
They don't come east very often. Uh So I thought
it was a tough spot for them. It's an eleven
Ay am start time on their body clock. You know
they're from Omaha, Nebraska, Craton, so coming east early game,
noon game. I thought plus five and a half was
a good spot for St. John's. This is yeah, this
is this is basically their super Bowl today facing a
(35:15):
Creton team that's in the top ten. So I thought
the Johnnies would get I thought you'd get the best
performance from St. John's today. We'll see if they win
the game out right. I do think that they're in
a good spot to cover the number though. And another
game I mentioned to you off air before we even
came on was South Florida at Temple. Temple's up by
one point fifty three at the moment with five minutes left,
and Temple the in game line right now is at
(35:35):
minus two and a half in Temple's favor What have
you been seeing at the book on that? And what
have the number has been telling you? Not a lot. Really,
I haven't really been monitoring that game too much. I
know st I know South Florida has not been a
team that's been very consistent this season. The other the
game that I've actually been looking at a little bit
closer has been the game between Houston uh at Cincinnati.
(35:57):
I think that game is a little bit more prominant
UH in Cincinnati and Houston. Yeaholite, we are. I think Houston.
Houston is actually in my future's portfolio. We've talked about
Kelvin Sampson and company uh in in previous shows, and
I think Houston is a I think Houston's a solid team.
And they they lost a tough game against Memphis last Saturday,
(36:21):
UH they bounced back strong from that, and and I
think Houston actually is a team that people should take
a hard look at. Once we get to the tournament.
They're gonna be one of those teams probably seeded six
or seventh, and they could be one of those six
or seven seeds that that that springs an upset in
the second round over that three seed or over the
two seed, depending on what the matchups is. But Cincinnati
is a good team you're on. Cumberland is a senior. Uh,
(36:43):
and he's the best player on Cincinnati obviously. UH. It
hasn't been as good as years passed with the Bearcats,
who have had Sweet sixteen caliber teams in the past.
I think Houston is the class of the American Conference
this season, and and and I'm gonna look to play
their futures bets uh in the American Conference tournament as well.
We'll continue to all of that game and the end
of the Cretan Saint John's game. So St. John's up
(37:03):
by four at the moment in South Florida Temple right
now is a two point game. Cincinnati Houston still in
the first half, Cincinnati in the lead. Five will keep
track of all these in game numbers coming up next
year on at the Windows. Stay tuned. Are you ready
(37:25):
for the nation's first and only free twenty four hour
network dedicated to you The betting and fantasy sports enthusiast.
Sports Grade will provide you with a real time content,
statistics and gaming intelligence unlike anything you've ever seen before.
Located both in the Hart of New York City and
inside the FanDuel Sports Book at the Metal Ends, sports Grade,
He's live eighteen hours a day. Here to serve you
(37:48):
the fanatic. This is sports grade. Get on the grid.
(38:12):
Last segment of at the window, but where we transition
into in game live, I'm aria leftin. Jared Smith is
at the Vandal Sports Book. The Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte
Hornets are underway there in the second quarter, tied at
thirty right now, and the Bucks were laying thirteen and
a half points in this game, which seemed like a lot. However,
the highest total on the board right now is at
two forty four, which is the Dallas Life Mavericks at
(38:32):
the Minnesota Timberwolves. Really high line, Jared, crazy high. One
of the highest we've seen. Yeah, the total one of
the one of the highest totals we've seen all season.
And uh, for those of you want to wear Ralph
Michaels is one of the best stat trends you're ever here.
Uh and is so he tweeted this out and and
(38:53):
I give credit to him for finding it because it
is a crazy stat. So in the last twenty one years,
there have only been five other games with a total
set at two forty three and a half or higher.
Two of them have been this season. Both of them
have involved the Pelicans. Both of them have gone under
m So keep that in mind when you're thinking about
(39:13):
betting and over in a game like this one between
the t Wolves UH and the Mavericks, one of the
highest total in any NBA game season. I have no
idea it's too I mean, obviously it's because neither team
plays defense, and both teams have been really good offensively
this season. The t Wolves have been a little bit better.
No Karl Anthony Towns has actually meant more flow from
Minnesota's offense. And of course Dallas with the Don Check
(39:35):
and Porzingis have been very strong offensively this season, and
they don't play a lot of defense, and both teams
run at a fast pace, and they're also two teams
that are not and Porzingis to play, I would assume yes,
based on this total, right, That's what I would assume
as well. Really interesting, So if you had to take,
if you had to lean in this total, would you
(39:56):
take the under and go with the trend? Yes? H percent?
I would take the under. And I know that's scary
to bet an under in a game with a total
that high, but it's a numbers game, and I think
what we're seeing based on that specific trend is that
the numbers in certain spots, when they get to be
this frothy, are just a little bit too hot and
(40:18):
and the only play is to come under it. Or
you've watched the game and you see if you can
find a good live spot to jump in. But there's
no way that you can bet an over based on
what we've seen with the past in these two in
these trends, and the fact that both of the other
totals that were two forty three or higher this season
have gone under. The Mavericks are also favored by six
and a half on the road. Would is there any
(40:39):
correlation between the spread and the total. Yes, I think
the higher that line goes, the more points that that
the books expect to be scored. Usually I like betting
overs in games with bigger spreads because the books expect
there to be a lot of points in the game
to begin with, because of the fact that the spread
is so large. Uh, get into an NFL game, excuse me,
(41:01):
or or college football game, especially a college football game.
Say Alabama's favored by fifty points in a game, well
the total sixty, Well, you know, the books think they're
gonna score fifty at least fifty one at least to
cover that number. Where's the other nine points coming from?
And and you know, obviously the team that they're facing
is probably very poor. Uh. And that's why that line
just big, by the way about it. It It just moved
to seven the total of the line. The line moved
(41:24):
to say. Yeah, No, I mean I I the line
moved to seven. Yeah, I mean I think the home
dog there isn't a bad spot. We've seen the Hornets.
I said that thirteen and a half for a home
dog today was big. Yeah. They had to leave right
now over Milwaukee. They're off to a twelve fourth start
in the second quarter. The only home dog we care
about today though, are the Jannis, who are up seven
with six minutes to go. Wow, that's I mean, great
(41:47):
read by you. They're they're up four with seven minutes
to go. We also see that Cincinnati is up thirty
eight to Houston. And I'm looking at the end game
line and right now Cincinnati is getting one and a
half points even though they're up by two. Are always
so interesting to me, Jared, because oh a, now they're
plus three and a half of by two. Cincinnati So
when you see something like that, what are your thoughts?
(42:09):
When I know you don't want to just jump the
gun and jump in right now. But with Cincinnati up
by two and getting three and a half points, does
that ever intrigue you? It does? Actually, Uh, Brian, Brian,
can you put y sban on? I want to watch
this Houston Cincinnati game? Um, yeah, I think Cincinnati is Uh.
I thought that line was a little hot to begin with.
(42:30):
I think it was five or six pregame. And I
like Houston a lot. I think Houston is a really
good team, and I don't know if they're equipped to
cover big spreads because they're just not an explosive offensive team.
And I thought that that on the road. Uh, Cincinnati's
played decent this year, and they're coming off of a
couple of decent performances, and they've also played Houston tough
(42:51):
earlier this year, So I thought this could be a
close game. And I still think Houston is the better
team on paper, but I wouldn't be surprised if they
covered the number. And the fact that we've seen this
line compress a few points. Uh, you know, it's not
halftime yet, It's almost half time, so oh man, someone
just got teed up in this game. Uh. Cincinnati assistant
coaches really fired up about something. UM Or is that
(43:11):
the head coach. Holy moly, he just like hopped off
the bench and screamed at somebody. I think he just
got teed up. Um. Yeah. Cincinnati is a good team
and and I think both of these teams are gonna
play tough UH in March because they're both they're they're
both good defensive teams. And the American Conference, I think
is a little bit better than people think. No one's
really talking about it. This year doesn't have an elite team,
but I think it's deep UH. And and I think
(43:32):
there's some teams in there that play that play a
legitimate style UH that can that can be effective in March,
which is they slow it down, but they're very efficient offensively.
And that's why I think the American Conference could have
a couple of teams could surprise. And I think the
two teams that are playing today used in the Cincinnati
are those two teams that I would play on. I
can't believe it's two former Penn State students. We have
not spoken about the biggest game of the day, which
is Michigan Takeniano how State and No House State laying
(43:54):
four points today. Actually, your birthday on Friday was the
anniversary of Penn State upsetting Ohio State in Happy Valley
when I was a sophomore in college. So it was
a really fun memory to have because I went to
one of I was one of the only fans at
the Bryce Jordan's Centered watching Penn's Date against Ohio State
because I was working the game, and no one would
have ever thought in a million years that Pen's da
would upset a ranked oh House Date team. However, Michigan
(44:17):
at Ohouse Date today O House Date laing four points.
What are your initial thoughts on the game? Four o'clock game?
Initial thoughts? Initial thoughts are trend, you know, you know,
fade the road teams in the Big Ten. That's what
we've seen, that's been the trend this year. But I
think Michigan can be one of these teams. Sure. I
think Michigan is one of these teams that can buck
(44:37):
some of these trends because of how tough they are,
and they're coming off of a of a of a
loss that I don't want to say it's a bad loss,
but It's a game where they were favored by six
and they lost by seven. So yeah, I mean they
they got outscored on the spread by thirteen points. That's
a pretty bad loss. So uh, you know, and Wisconsin
is a good team, and I think Wisconsin was grossly
undervalued in that game and they won't be undervalued again
(44:57):
the rest of the season because people now know how
good was scot can be. But Ohio State is a
tough team, and I think Ohio State is another one
of those Big Ten teams that can surprise some people
in March. Uh. The Weston Brothers are incredibly gifted, and
I think, uh, I I think Chris altman' is a
is A is a great coach, and and I think
the Big Ten is littered with great coaches. And I
(45:18):
don't think the coaching gets enough credit in the Big
Ten because of how tough the league is. These teams
cannibalize each other between January and March, and then they
get to the light at the end of the tunnel.
Uh in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Tournament, and some
people don't know what's what because it's been such a gruesome, grinding, uh,
you know, gauntlet. Uh. For this regular season in this conference.
(45:41):
But what it does is it makes these teams tournament tested.
The hottest fire forge is the strongest steel area. These
teams when they get to Indianapolis, they are ready to roll.
And I think Ohio States one of those teams. I
think there's five or six teams in the Big ten
UH that can have a legitimate shot to make the
Final four, and a couple of them I think have
legitimate shots to cut down the nets, and I think
Ohio State has the talent to be one of them.
(46:02):
I just think, can they put it together for four
or five six games in a row, we'll see. You know,
they're they're They're in a tough stretch in their schedule
right now. I was looking at Ohiose States schedule earlier.
So they beat Maryland, that was a big win last Sunday.
We talked about that game last Sunday on the show.
Then they beat Nebraska on the road, which is a
relatively easy win for them. But here's their last three games,
Michigan Illinois at Michigan State. We're gonna know a lot
(46:25):
about Ohio State over the last week of the season.
And we talked about not reading too much into these
last regular season games, but the Big Ten, every game
is like a conference tournament game, So every game is important.
And I think Ohio State is going to be tested
over the teams that was on the road and ended
up beating Michigan in in ourbor. They ended up winning
(46:46):
the last time they faced them on February four, So
they're one of the few home teams and road teams
that was able to win on the road. Ohio State exactly.
You know, I'll tell you what Ohio States one team
I have overlooked in the futures market this year. I
have a futures play on Michigan. I have a futures
play on Michigan State. I even have a small futures
play on Penn State. UH. I have overlooked Ohio State
(47:09):
in the market. I've overlooked Wisconsin in the market. I
I think, I I hope those two UH you know,
I don't want to say inconsistencies, but I I hope
those two UH teams don't don't come back to bite
me because I think those are two really good teams.
And and you know, we can't play every team in
the futures market because we won't win anything if if
one of our team's hits, but I think Wisconsin and
(47:31):
Ohio State, I think there's some value there by the
way St. Johns is of eight team, They're gonna win
this game out right going away, and the handicap was
spot on with this one. St. John's gonna drop a
hundred points in against Creighton's defense today. Nothing because it's
a tough game. And again it's a tough spot for
the Blue Jays. But you saw why Crighton is not
(47:52):
a tournament championship contender. They are not defensively sound enough
to win six straight games. They're defensively sound enough to
win one or two games in a row because they
get hot from three and it's sixty two one where
I bought Crighton that if they get to the sweet sixteen,
I feel like I made a good bet. But I
don't think they're good enough to win the national championship
because of what we're seeing today. I don't think they're
(48:13):
I don't think they can start their thirty two one
right now for the championship. Yeah, I got him at
sixty two one two weeks ago. So the closing line
values there and I think they'll and I think they're closing.
Line value will continue uh to to decrease as we
get into March, because they're gonna be a top four seed.
But this is a shot across the bow for Blue
Jay's backers. Today. They don't have the defense that can
(48:34):
really shut down a good offense, and in March that's
a problem. So we have just about two minutes left
and then we're going to transition into in game live. However,
before we've finished our segment, here on at the window,
my best bet of the day is the Los Angeles
Lakers laying two points on the road at the New
Orleans Pelicans. I'm digging the Lakers. It took them last night.
They disappointed me. I don't think that the Lakers are
(48:55):
going to disappoint me for a second night in a row.
So give me l a tonight in New Orleans. Jared,
what's your best bet? That's not John? I mean, I wish,
I wish I was gonna say, come on, yeah, it
should be right now, and I want I'll give another
best bet because I want to give the viewers something fun. Um, Okay,
(49:17):
let's talk about let's talk about the prop market uh in.
In this Lakers Pelicans game. We gave it out a
little bit earlier, but I want to reinforce the point
that brandon Ingram against his former team is not getting
enough off and the fact that him and Zion Williamson
are both priced the same in the point prop market
is a bit of a miscalculation there. I'll take brandon
Ingram over twenty four and a half points tonight. I
(49:37):
got this former team. I love that the Kinston kid,
brandon Ingram. Garret and I have got you covered. For
the next two hours on In Game Live, will be
seeing the end of this Saint John straighton game we
used in Cincinnati game, and we have some NBA action
as well with the Milwaukee Bucks on the road at
the Charlotte Hornet. Stay tuned in Game Live coming up
next
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