March 1, 2020 • 49 mins
Ariel Epstein and Jared Smith break down today's betting lines for College Basketball games. They also play a game of "Guess the Line" about today's bets, preview upcoming NBA games from a betting perspective and more.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:28):
I want all of you to get up out of
your chest. Then go to the window, open it, stick
your head out of here. It is to madness. I'm
Ariel and Senior Studio thirty four. I'm so excited that
(00:50):
we're finally at the month of March. February is always
the toughest month of the sports calendar to get through.
Jared Smith is at the Vandal Sports Book joining me now. Jared,
of course already text me and said, my futures bets
are in. It's March. Happy March. Thank you very much, Area,
And you know the futures bets that they're in. But
(01:10):
there never it's like fashion, it's never finished. I'm constantly
rebalancing the portfolio. I did so this morning we saw
that Kansas move I tweeted it out just before the
show Kansas from seven, seven and one to six to
one on FanDuel. So they're now fully established right now
as the best team in college basketball, the odds on
favor to win the title. Uh, you know, and and
and say whatever you will about Bill self and and
(01:32):
and you know the choking of the Jayhawks in Big
March games in the past, but they are now the
team to beat in college basketball. They will be the
number one overall seed when we do get to Selection
Sunday two weeks from today, Area, two weeks from today,
Selection Sunday. Very exciting stuff. It was crazy too, because
you actually tweeted a few days ago that you were
able to get Kansas at plus one ten and then
they weren't like minus one. Wasn't it tend to want
(01:55):
like what was it like minus one thousand or something
that you were able to see it at I don't
know how much? Yeah, what did you see? No, it's
it's not You can't even bet those number one seeds anymore.
And and they might be down just because you know,
some of the games have started and they usually take
those down while the games are being played. But uh
we we we kind of made that made that observation
(02:15):
last Saturday before Baylor played Kansas that Kansas was plus
one oh five. Some of them were even uh a
pick them money line against Baylor, but the number one
seed odds were plus one ten. So if and and
we made the very accurate prediction that if Kansas wins
that game, they will be the number one overall seed,
the number one UH seed in the Incidentble tournaments, basically
a lock for them if they beat Baylor on the road.
(02:36):
They did be Bailler on the road, and immediately the
line went from plus one ten to now minus a
thousand and and and Kansas, uh is a lot to
be a one seed. I think Baylor will be a
one seed as well. So will Gonzaga. I think it's
the fourth one seed, which well, I know we're gonna
talk about later. Uh, that's kind of up for grabs.
And there's certainly some teams that are in that mix,
Craton and St. John's that are tipping off right now.
(02:57):
Twelve o'clock was tips, So we're gonna actually of you
that game and talk about what to look for in game,
because even though we have in game live coming up
from two to four, we're pretty much in game live
here as well. We're gonna go over all the games
that happened last night major upsets just before we go
to the update, Jared, what was the upset that stood
out to you the most yesterday? Obviously it was Baylor
(03:18):
and TCU. Uh, you know, the Florida State Clemson game
was a bit unique. I think Clemson has been a
little bit better at home this year than than TCU.
That's why the horn Frogs win was a little bit
more surprising. And I think Baylor has a little bit
better of a pedigree at this point than Florida State does.
I'm not surprised that those teams went on the road
and lost in conference play. It happens all the time
in college basketball. I don't think those losses hurt uh
(03:41):
their their tournament chances at all. I think those are
things that just happened over the course of conference ploy,
and the a c C in the Big Twelve certainly
are good conferences in their own right. But I would
say Baylor's lost because of what they were unable to
do to stop TCU, who doesn't have a great offense,
and Baylor's defense is really good. That was the more
surprising result. We should have an update from the guys
in the pit. Guys in the pit that we have
(04:02):
an update to give right now. Nope, alright, Jared, we're
gonna keep this segment going. Maybe not ye, no update today. Okay,
we're gonna keep it going. So let's just keep talking
about this create in St. John's game, which is going
on right now. So creating at minus five and a half,
what line movement had you seen so far? I know
(04:22):
that you've seen some kind of crazy lad movements that
might have been going in a direction that the public
might not have thought would go in. Yeah, you know,
I was a little bit surprised. Uh, the majority of
the public, as they should be, is on creating in
this game. Uh. The Blue Jays have kind of been
one of those teams over the last few weeks. They're
on a long winning street. They have climbed the Big
(04:44):
East standings. Uh, they will most likely be the number
two seed in two weeks when we played the Big
East tournament, or I guess in a week and a half.
Now that's crazy how it will be a fantastic tournament.
But we did see the line move towards St. John's.
The Johnny's opened at five and a half. I saw
that dip to four and a half at some spots
this morning. It closed right around five, so we did
(05:07):
see a little bit of contrarian movement there towards St. John's.
I mean the Johnny's are nine into a Carnesseca arena
this year. That's been with Mustapha here and he won't
play today. But LJ. Figureau has been really strong for
the Johnnies this season. And I think Crab I mean
Craighton's in my future's portfolio. I think the Blue Jays
are one of those teams that can make a run
because of their offense. But this is a weird spot
(05:27):
for them at noon. They haven't played well at the
Garden of late and I know this game is not
at the Garden, it's in Queens, but I think there
is something to be said about a team that just
doesn't play well in this area and and and we'll
see if that continues today. I am on the Johnny's
plus five and a half, uh, and I'm trying to
get will it's on Fox, not on We don't have
it in their last ten and they've had three big
(05:50):
road wins. They've one against Villanovacin and Marquette. How much
does that make you like the Blue Jays today? Yeah,
I mean I think again. I think the Blue Jays
are a very strong team. I I think ty Sean
alexander Is is the biggest player of the year. Uh
and and I think Creighton, with the top ten adjusted offense,
can certainly be one of those teams likened to Auburn
(06:12):
last season that just gets hot from three, that just
figures out a way to score points in bunches over
the course of a four or five six game stretch
and make it to the Final four. I don't think
they are deep enough defensively to win the national championship,
but this is a Craton team that I could see
making a run to the final four. So I do
love them in the futures market. In this particular matchup,
(06:32):
laying six points on the road early spot in New
York City, an area they have not done well, I
think it is a good contrarian spot for St. John's.
We do see the Johnny's out to an early six
four lead. I don't see any adjustment, or at least
too big of an adjustment on the live line just yet.
But I am on St. John's plus five and a
half pree game if things changed throughout the course of
the day. Obviously, the live betting markets are are available
(06:56):
to me here, but I I do think the Johnny's
as a home dog today a good spot for them
to cover the number against the Creton team that's getting
a lot of the action and that certainly deserves the action.
But might not, uh might probably shouldn't be laying this
many points on the road. And I like it too
because St. John's two losses on their Queen's campus have
only come by two points, and they've only had two
(07:16):
losses on the Queen's campus there nine and two, So
it's not a bad spot. I actually really like that
pick because it is a lot of points. Yeah, No,
I mean and and and I think at this stage
in the college basketball season, these teams that are set
in terms of their playoff position, and crighton knows there
will be no less than a four seed in the
incident of like tournament, regardless of what happens this week
(07:38):
and regardless of what happens next week at the Garden,
they have done enough with their resume, like some of
these other teams that we've seen win and not cover
over the last week dating in San Diego State or
two that come to mind. Right out of the gates
that are established in their positioning, they have done it
off over the course of their regular season to tell
the committee, Hey, we are worthy of our seed. We
don't need to win out and and and blow teams
(07:59):
out and get style points down the stretch. We just
need to keep stringing together wins. And I think Creighton
has that mentality right now. So six points is a
lot to lay on the road. Uh, we'll see very
early on in the game. It's tied up at six
right now, We'll see if the Johnnies can continue to
play well at home where we keep previewing what we're
actually recapping yesterday's games. What are things that someone should
(08:20):
look for who's watching this Cretan St. John's game that
you would say, go in game and bet this one live.
I wouldn't. I mean, I guess we'll see it when
it happens. I think if if Craton is not shooting
it well from three, that is their indication of whether
or not they're gonna have a good day. Uh. And
they're over two so far to start, so you know, well,
(08:42):
and to me, that's the indication if if they don't
shoot it well from three, they're not gonna cover a
lot of numbers. Their defense isn't good enough uh to
sustain a lead unless they are just blowing the doors
off of their opponent. Uh. They're one of the more
unbalanced teams that I like to make a run in March.
And there are historical example of teams like that, like
like like Auburn that had a top five offense last
(09:03):
year and their defense was somewhere in the thirties, you know,
somewhere around forty. Craton's at fifty. So they're not quite
as as defensively sound as an Auburn team was last year,
but their offense is just as good, So to me,
that's the indication. So so look at Craton's three point
shooting numbers. Uh See, if they're struggling Carna Seca arena
is a bit of a cozier uh Jim, then maybe
(09:24):
Craton's used to be playing, and especially out there in
the Midwest. Uh in omaham No, not as overwhelming as
the Garden. And actually my my original handicap was that
they had struggled at the Garden last year, they were
only averaging sixty three and a half points in two
games at Madison Square Garden. They lost to Creighton at
the Garden, or they lost the St. John's at the
Garden last year, and then they lost the Xavier in
the first round of the Big East Tournament at the Garden.
(09:46):
One so they had so they're really good offense had
been held down uh in in the in those you know,
different circumstances. Some teams just don't play well at the
Garden area. Some things play really well at the Garden.
It is an interesting handicap because of the mystique of
the Mecca. It makes sense. And it's gonna be really
fun to watch this Big East Tournament at the Garden
in a couple of weeks because I really think that
(10:08):
it's a toss up between a bunch of teams. And
from someone who graduated from Syracuse and heard all of
the hype about Syracuse University in the Big East, and
it's really fun to watch history kind of repeat itself
and this conference to pull itself out of the woodworks
because it did face a downward spiral for a while.
Yeah no, and and they'll get you come back next year.
(10:31):
I don't think they'll ever get Syracuse back because of
the football scenario in the a SEC gives you, such
as someone who grew up Yeah, well, they have their
own network. The Big East does not, UH, And and
that is the difference, and that will continue to be
the difference that drives UH the landscape of college sports
football rules all and and it's just because of the
bottom well, I mean, you just can't compete. And and
(10:53):
one of my favorite UH documentaries about this is that
is that a thirty for thirty about the recoience and
the East and how it kind of split up. Yeah,
it's it's one of the best. UH. And thirty for
thirty does a great job with with with all other
documentaries and and I recommend anyone who's a sports UH
fan to watch a lot of them, especially that one,
because it really does show uh the rise and fall
(11:16):
of of what what I considered the greatest conference college
basketball conference of all time. And and and no one
will ever convince me otherwise. I grew up as a
Syracuse fan area. I don't know if you knew that
my cousin, uh, my older cousin went to Syracuse and
he was kind of always my big brother, because I'm
the oldest of of two siblings. So uh and and
and he took me to a lot of Jets games
(11:36):
growing up. That's why I'm a Jets fan. And he
also took me to a lot of Syracuse games. So
two thousand three was my junior either sophomore junior in
high school. Uh when Carmelo Anthony then won the tie
exactly Craig fourth, Billy etal in Josh Pace, I can
name the entire team. Uh. But yeah, I was a
big Syracuse fan growing up, So I I missed the
Big East. I missed those old days of the Garden.
We are going to talk more about today's slate of games,
(11:58):
and we're going to talk about yesterday's upsets and how
the implications are going to play a factor in the
odds market and for your pocket and for the sense
of these teams as well, because it's going to be
an interesting march. I want to be the next Daily
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(12:39):
donc to learn more. Welcome back to at the Window.
It is March first. We are talking so much college basketball.
(13:01):
There is NBA today, the XFL continuing into day two
of the weekend. However, college basketball the big story, especially
after two big upsets yesterday, for especially one team that
in my opinion, is in major contention for the national championship.
Jared Baylor falls to TCU seventy two yesterday. TCU covers
at plus twelve and the over hits at one seven.
(13:23):
How much does this have implications on Baylor's futures? Because
I know your Mr Futures over there at the Pandel
Sports Book, Mr Future. It's actually got a nice little ring.
I do smitty with the futures. Now you're gonna get
into store here, I do. I mean, I think if
(13:44):
there's anyone that's a master of the futures market that
we work with, I definitely think it is me, and
I think the reason Watchington Nationals exactly exactly. I didn't
how about Kansas City Chiefs as well. I mean, I
think I think in general, the reason that I feel
like I can identify with that specific style of betting
(14:04):
is because I have a macro approach to this, and
that is a perfect lead into what your question is
about Baylor and TCU. If you are a backer of
Baylor in the futures market, or you want to back
Baylor in the futures market, you should not be afraid
of a loss in the regular season, especially one like
this that's on the road in conference play against the
team that was hungry that you're gonna get there. You're
(14:26):
gonna get their best shot because they're not going to
the tournament. You're a top seed. It's the it's their
super Bowl. Basically, that was TCU, that was Jamie Dixon's
super Bowl yesterday, and they wanted congratulations to the horn Frogs.
But point you should, yes, exactly, you should welcome those
types of things because in in any financial market, the
goal is to buy low and sell high, and these teams,
(14:49):
you're crazy if you don't think they're they're they're they're
bought and traded like stocks. They are there there's an
open market. We view them every day and you might
not see the upticks and downticks, but they been on
a daily basis, whether these teams win or lose. I've
had I've seen situations where teams have lost and their
and their futures odds go down the next day because
just of the exposure in the marketplace. So uh, you know,
(15:11):
keep it eye on where Baylor's lines go. No, nothing
from Baylor yesterday. The one line movement we saw that
I tweeted out was Kansas and also Michigan State, and
that you know, we we we will talk about Michigan
State later because I do have a lot to say
about the Spartans. But you know, I think it is
surprising or nor maybe not surprising. Maybe it's intriguing to
(15:32):
note that Baylor lost yesterday Kansas one close game, they
didn't cover either, and it was Kansas that got the
bump in the futures market, not Baylor going down. And
I think that is more indicative of what we saw
last night, which was people weren't running off of Baylor,
they were running to Kansas. And and that's you know,
maybe maybe a bit of a you know, a left
(15:53):
in in the fork in the road when maybe you
thought it was gonna go right. So just keep those
things in mind. Don't necessarily think that just because a
team lost their futures market value will plummet. And and
if they do, sometimes it's an ovalreaction and you might
want to play on that team. So you know, keep
it up, you know, just just be mindful of these things,
and don't only think about the last game. This is
a broad market that we're trying to you know, handicap
(16:17):
here and and there's there's little things that happened throughout
the course of the season that will adjust it. But
I don't think one loss to TCU on the road
in conference play, when Baylor had been absolutely lights out
this season, with the exception of their big game against
Kansas UH is going to affect their future's odds that significantly,
Nor should it. I still think Baylor is a very
good team that Big twelve tournament. How much then, does
(16:37):
that match up if we see a rematch between Kansas
and Baylor have implications on potentially a one seed in
the tournament or do you think that they could both
have a one or you think they could both be
a one seed? That to me is the best question
of all of this, because what we're seeing in the
market place, at least what we had seen up until yesterday,
was that Baylor and Kansas were still priced the same
(16:59):
to be a one seed at minus a thousand, and
I think that's twofold. I think a those are the
two best teams from top to bottom what we've seen
from the beginning of the season until now. But also
it is indicative of the Big Twelve as a whole
being a very powerful conference in the r p I,
and that is where a lot of the seeding is based.
The tournament committee does a good job in separating the
(17:20):
teams in terms of Okay, they're in a large team,
they're not on that large team. But the seatings are
very much decided by regionality and also by what your
rating is. So I'm not surprised to see Baylor and
Kansas continue to be proised as major favorites to be
one seeds. I think they both will be one seeds
even with this loss to t c U yesterday. For
the Bears, because it is interesting to me, I thought
(17:41):
that the loss to Kansas didn't really affect them too much,
except it didn't make them the better team. It made
Kansas the better team. I just didn't think that, you know,
losing to each other really has major implications on their
futures or their one seed implications. I think, if anything,
it's more about placement and where you're gonna be regionalized. Yeah, no,
I totally agree. I mean, if if you look at
(18:03):
Baylor schedule and it's it's one of the more fascinating
schedules to break down because of the early loss to Washington,
who has not been a very good team this season.
So you know, early on in the year, people thought
Washington might be one of the best teams in the Pack,
well if not the best team in the Pack. Welvel
their thirteen and sixteen this year. They have really struggled.
They've got an elite level defense, but they have really
(18:24):
struggled to score the basketball this season. And the Pack twelve,
I think it is being undervalued a bit. So some
of these other teams in the Pack twelve they had,
I want to say, like a ten game losing streak
Washington did uh midway through the conference season. Uh, and
they have continued to struggle. They lost their Apple Cup
rivalry game against Washington State the other night. So Washington
is the only other team besides Kansas and TCU two
(18:44):
beat Baylor this season. Granted that was way back, uh
in in basically the first week of the regular season.
So it's almost even hard to compare the two losses
now and then because of you know, you're a totally
different team in November than you are in Mark now
for Baylor's schedule. On the back half, what we've seen
is absolute domination on the defensive end. That's something we
(19:06):
did not see yesterday against TCU. I was very, very surprised,
uh to see TCU continue to score and score seventy
five points against Baylor. Uh, they haven't given up seventy
points in I can't even find one on their on
their calendar. They haven't given up seventy five points since
novembery against Villanova. I mean, this is a team in
(19:26):
Baylor that has really held their opponents to under their
averages this season. They didn't do that yesterday against CCU.
That's why they lost. Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to
watch the Big Twelve. But another tournament that's interesting is
the a c C. Because the a c C is
usually the tournament where we say, okay, Duke, Carolina and
Virginia and Florida State even sometimes are fighting for that
one seed out of the a SEC. Who's it going
(19:48):
to be this year? It's more about is someone going
to come out of the a CEC that might have
been on the bubble, like Virginia. It's gonna be interesting.
And yesterday we saw Florida State lose to Clemson by
one point a d to sixty nine. So Clemson covers
at plus four and a half and the overcatches at
one thirty nine. I'm looking though, at just the final score.
Clemson beats Florida State, who is potentially a two seed
(20:11):
in the tournament. How impressed were you with Clemson being
able to come out and be at Florida State. We've
seen Clemson already this year. They were able to beat
UNC for the first time in Chapel Hill. Now they're
being in Florida State. Is Clemson a contender at all
for hurting someone's chances in the a SEC tournament or
are you just thinking Florida States not as strong as
(20:32):
we could have thought they could have been. Again, I'm
not too concerned with what happened against against Clemson. For
Florida State, and and I cautioned betters to take this
last week and really, you know, digest it with you know,
the best teams in the country going up against some
of the bottom feeders in their conference season, especially if
(20:55):
they're at home. So a team like Clemson that has
no chance to make the tournament, Uh, the a c
C has had a really down year. I don't I'm
not Clemson. And I've looked at Clemson as if, like
in the a SEC tournament, they could really hurt someone's chances.
I mean, between Duke and Florida Stay losing their two
games yesterday, you're looking at a team that could potentially
be fluctuating between a two and a three seed in
(21:16):
the n C Double A Tournament if they were to
lose early to Clemson in the second round. I mean,
I again, I just I caution better is to worry
too much about what happens with these big teams early
on in the conference tournaments and the last week of
the regular season. There's some big numbers out there. And
and just keep in mind that a team like Florida
State is not going to get impact, you know, to
(21:37):
like to them. They're not like, oh no, if we're
not gonna be a two seed, we're gonna be a
three seed instead. I just don't think that impacts the
games themselves. Florida State is trying to get through this
last week healthy because they're the one of the deepest
teams in the country. So it doesn't worry you at all,
not at all, absolutely not. It was a one point
game and on on a in a road in a
road atmosphere, in a tough atmosphere, in a conference game,
(21:59):
and there was a little some some funny business at
the end with Florida's stay. I just uh and and
and same goes for Duke. I mean, you know, Duke
has really struggled too, But I'm just and and credit
to Virginia for, you know, playing a really great game yesterday,
especially defensively, especially in the second half. And we nailed
the under in that game during in game lot because
I knew that the Duke was going to really be
the defensive uh staple in that game after giving up
(22:20):
one ten awake the other day. But Virginia also is
a very good defensive team. Just for these for these
really good teams, the top twenty five teams in the
last week of the regular season, your goal is to
stay healthy. The conference tournament is a little different, and
we'll handicap that when we get there. But there's one
week left in the regular season for all these teams
to maybe three games left Max. The goal is, let's
(22:42):
make sure that the same healthy team we have today
is playing in the conference tournament. Creating Florida State, Baylor.
These are teams with national title hopes. You know this
week is not You're not gonna win the national title
this week. You're not gonna lose it this week, either
from Virginia and then being able to beat do yesterday.
Can you see Virginia going into the a SEC tournament
(23:04):
with all the experience that they have in their head
coach as in the winning nature of that UM program.
Can you see Virginia being a contender for the a
SEC title? Absolutely? I think. I think if this is
a year where a team like Virginia can win six
in a row with no offense, continue to play well defensively,
(23:27):
they're the national champs. They are the reigning national champs.
So until somebody in a one and done scenario, I
I know it does, but you know you you've got
to you know this is a team, and this is
a team that got bounced from the a SEC tournament
early last year. They lost in the second round to
Florida State, so you know, and then they went on
to win the national title. Everyone was selling on Virginia
(23:48):
after that loss. Everyone thought Virginia was done. Then they
went sixth straight games. So I just don't like to
fade teams that have done it before. And that leads
me into a point against Michigan State that will get
to later that I think is very important to make.
I think Virginia definitely is a playoff team in the
a CEC tournament. We've seen the a CC really struggle
this year. Florida State, Duke Louisville, They've been very inconsistent.
(24:10):
They've been they look great at times. Those three teams
at their best have looked way better than Virginia. But
are we gonna get their best in the conference tournament?
In the n C Double A tournament, it's a little
inconsistent Virginia, I know what we're getting. Every game, they're
gonna they're gonna lock you down defensively. It's gonna be
interesting because the a CEC Tournament is definitely one of
those tournaments where the top contenders don't seem to really
(24:31):
care because they're eight teams to be set. At that point,
We're gonna talk about Jared's favorite conference though. Coming up next,
I have some beef with Spartans a tune. I want
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(25:26):
at the Window. I'm aery l f C and Jared
Smith is at the Vandal Sports Book. We just talked
about the Big East and how it's making a comeback.
We spoke about the a c C. We talked about
Baylor TCU and that upset with TCU upsetting Baylor yesterday.
A bunch of upsets in the A c C as
well with Duke losing and Florida State losing. That's a
small recap. However, we have the Big Ten to get
(25:47):
to as well. So last night Michigan State picks up
a big win beating Maryland. They really beat him up
in College Park. How much did that make you like
the Spartans more, Jared, I'm obsessed with the Spartans. I
am absolutely obsessed with Michigan State right now. I was
running I literally I think, Thank goodness, I have people
(26:08):
that I I friendly with that live in New Jersey
that I trust to log in and make bets for
me when I'm in New York City. Because Cassius Winston is,
in my opinion, when operating at full potential, the best
player in the country. I don't see anyone control the
game like he does. I think Peyton Pritchard does that
(26:29):
in Oregon a little bit, but he isn't as athletic
and as dynamic as Cassius Winston is. I think Winston
is gonna be an elite level pro. I think he
can do it all, and I love him and Xavier Tilman.
By the way, it's a package deal with the two
of them, the two of them together, like Dotson and
as a bookie for Kansas can control a game for
(26:51):
Michigan State. And what I like about Kansas is the
same as what I like about Michigan State. Role players
that can shoot the three. Kansas has them, Michigan State
has him. Kansas has the elite Guarden Dotson. Michigan State
has the elite Guarden Winston. Kansas has the elite Big
and has a bookie. Michigan State has the elite Big
and Tillman. They are mirror images of each other. And
(27:12):
I think if the bracket works out properly, it will
be Kansas in Michigan State in the n C Double
A Championship game. Uh in the first weekend, the first
Monday of April. Wow. Yeah. So I was telling you this, Jared,
because every single year I take Michigan Seed to go
to the Final four. Michigan State. I did not take
them to go to the Final four last year because
(27:33):
I was absolutely sick they go to the Final four.
I'm a little nervous to call them a final four team.
But it seems that you're very confident that tom Zzo
and his Spartans are getting there again. Oh, I and
guys in the pit, you can record this one for
the for the promo. Michigan State, with what they've done
(27:54):
this season, is probably the best value you will ever
get on a team with their level talent to win
the national title at this stage on March one. They
were twenty seven one last night to win the title.
To put that in perspective, the line moved down last night,
as you would expect after a big road went at Maryland.
(28:15):
And that is the other movement that we saw in
the futures market last night that I did not tweet out.
I was saving it for this segment because I knew
we were gonna talk about Michigan State. Uh well, you know,
I like to look out for our show. Sometimes I
don't put at all. I don't put all the free
information out on Twitter. Sometimes I do. I am very
generous with my information. Um, Michigan State, in my opinion,
has the same level of talent as Kansas, Gonzaga, all
(28:37):
these other teams that are priced to win the title,
but they are sitting well, believed, well beneath them because
of that incredible losing. I mean, it was one of
the most unique losing streets. I want to say. They
lost six straight games at one point during the regular season.
I want to confirm that, No, it was only it
was only three and four out of five. You you
usually do not see that from a Michigan State team
(28:58):
during the regular season. So they lost in the middle
of the season. They were basically a five team in
the Big Ten, and then they went on on a
nice little run. They've won three in a row, four
or five and they're five I think four either four
or five games over five in the Big Ten right now.
Uh And and they I think will not win the
Big Ten, but I think if they there'll be the
two seed, maybe they'll overtake Maryland. I'm not sure what
(29:20):
Maryland schedule is down the stretch, but that doesn't matter.
What matters is Michigan State is playing their best basketball
of the season right now. They are peaking at the
right time. And what Cassius Winston showed me last night
was that he can take over a game at any point.
He can take over a game. And what I mean
by that is not only scoring the basketball, but setting
up his opponents or setting up his teammates. And what
(29:43):
what Cassius Winston has that Peyton Pritchard also has this
incredible feel for the game. When his teammates are feeling
the hot hand, he knows it's time to dish. When
his teammates are struggling a bit, that's when he becomes
more aggressive and takes the ball to the basket, gets
to the basket, gets to the free throw line, or
is able to knock down shot. He just has an
incredible feel for the game, and that, to me is
(30:03):
what is so important in March, to be able to
know dictate tempo. This is the time for me to
take over. This is the time to let my teammates
who are playing well take over. And that's why Michigan said,
I think is an elite team, a Final four caliber team. See,
I actually like Michigan State more than I like Maryland.
I don't think Maryland's gonna go find this tournament yet.
If I'm looking at the odds, Maryland's at seventeen to
one and like we mentioned, Michigan State's at twenty five
(30:25):
to one to win the national championship. How much does
this make you dislike Maryland more? In a loss to
Michigan State at home, I really don't see Maryland making
it past the sweet sixteen. I really think Maryland is
is a very unique team this season because of what
they've been able to do late in games, and I
(30:46):
think that gives them a bit of an extra push.
Uh then I normally would give a team with their
personnel and with their pedigree. This isn't a Maryland team
that has had a lot of success in March. This
is a Maryland team that has a lot of talent, though,
and that's why if they continue to be consistent, they
can win some games in the tournament. I just don't
know if they have the ability to string it together
(31:08):
for forty minutes. What I've seen from Maryland this year
twenty great exactly, twenty great minutes and twenty four minutes
in March. That will get you bounced. You will not
overcome that in a tournament game against the quality opponent.
We've seen them have some late comebacks against Minnesota the
other night, that was a crazy one. We saw them
come back against Indiana very late. But what are those
teams have in common area? Those are not quality opponents.
(31:30):
If you face a Kansas or a Michigan State or
a Kentucky and you play twenty really poor minutes, you're
down twenty. The game's over. So I like, that's the
issue I have with Maryland. Can they string it together
for forty minutes? If they can? There is talented as
any of these other teams we're talking about. But what
I haven't seen from Maryland over the last month, which
is the meat of the Big Tent schedule, and the
(31:51):
Big Tent schedule is a proving ground for how to
win games in the tournament. It is deep, it is big,
it is physical, it is talented, and it is really
hard to win on the road. And that's what we've
seen from Maryland is they just felt string forty minutes together.
The home teams in the Big Ten have been dominant
this season, and I don't have the updated stats since yesterday,
but I do know majority of the hometown teams. Of
(32:13):
the home teams have won these games. I look at it.
Maryland lost on the road at Penn State. They beat
Ohio State at home and then lost to Ohio State
on the road. They lost at Wisconsin at Iowa. These
road losses are really big, and the only thing that's
funny is that they actually want at Michigan State and
then Michigan State won in Maryland. The Big Ten Tournament
to me is going to be super interesting because you're
(32:35):
on a neutral court and we're gonna see that there's
no home court advantage anymore for these Big Ten teams,
which is where they have all been thriving all season.
Right now, if you had to pick, are you going
Michigan State to win the Big Ten Tournament or do
you think that they don't care as much about these
conference tournaments and someone like a Maryland might win or
someone like a Michigan could come out on top and win.
(32:55):
There's two teams that I like to win the Big
Ten Tournament. I will be betting both of these teams
to win the Big Ten Tournament once the odds are released.
It is Michigan State, it is Wisconsin. I think if
you look back over time, these are the two most
consistent teams that have played in the Big Ten Tournament.
We've seen no Hall State Michigan have some success, but
I think this year it's Michigan State and Wisconsin that
are peaking right now at the right time. The Badgers
(33:17):
have won five straight. Greg Guard has been as consistent
of a head coach as you will ever see at
any level, and nobody talks about him. John Rostein calls
him the silent assassin. Literally, nobody, even some people don't
even know Greg Guard as the head coach at Wisconsin.
I bet if you pulled a hundred college basketball fans
that considered themselves legit fans, they could not tell you
who the head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers was. I
(33:37):
think de Metrir Trice has been a very underrated guard
for them. He's an upperclassman. What do we talk about
in March? Experienced talented guards win you games. Cassius Winston,
de Metri Trice, those are the two best guards in
the Big Ten Conference right now. I was a sleeper.
Luca guards that can take over a game at any moment, anytime.
Iowa is a sleeper. In fact, Iowa to me is
a is an n C double A as well, because
(33:59):
there's not I'm I'm I'm off our bandwagon. We can't
score right now, area, We're I'm not done. I think
we're gonna win a game in the tournament. I hope
we're gonna win a game in the tournament. I don't
think we can make a deep run. I just don't
think Penn State consistently now. He's scoring the basketball at
a level where they can control the game and golf,
and they're letting, they're letting teams run on them. Luca
Garza and Iowa absolutely demolished Penn State's defense in the
(34:23):
second half. Now, Guards is a really good player, and
that's why I do want to get to Iowa at
some point. Uh. In terms of a tournament team, I'll
probably bet on some Iowa Sweet six team props when
the bracket has released, matchup dependent. I think Iowa is
a team that can surprise some people. I think the
Big Ten will get more teams than any other conference
in the Sweet sixteen. When it's all said and done,
all right, we have two minutes before we go into
the NBA next segment. I want to ask you to
(34:46):
We're gonna play a little game and I want to
test really your knowledge on the odds because we have
about two minutes and I'm going rapid fire down some
games of some random teams that people wouldn't really look at.
So I want you to get to look up the
teams online. First though, I want you to give me
at least the second to look up the Ken palm.
I know, but that's fine, but you have to let
(35:06):
me at least give me. I have to at least
look at some because these some of these teams are
really off the beaten path. So go ahead, go ahead, Okay.
So the first one is Florida International is taking on
Charlotte in Charlotte today. Charlotte Charlotte forty niners have actually
been better. Okay. So Charlotte's fifteen and eleven this season
home against De Fiu has not been good. I'm gonna
(35:28):
say this is Charlotte minus three and a half Charlotte
minus five, Okay, was closed a little close one and
a half. All right, Marie's at Quinnipiac. For my goodness,
you're gonna get me with the MAC games, all right.
Maris is one of the worst teams in college basketball
this season. They're ranking is three O eight. They have
one of the worst offenses in college basketball this season.
(35:49):
They're definitely underdogs in this game. Quinnipiac has been decent,
but I think I think it's gonna be Marist. No
to be Quinnipiac minus seven and two off minus five. Okay.
Next one that's not that's not bad for being blind,
it's not bad at all. Our next one is Manhattan
(36:11):
at Monmouth. You love these Northeastern Games. Okay, uh Manhattan
another really bad offense under five team Mommouth. What does
Mammoth's deal this year? Momouth is okay, but they're not
a tournament team. The max has been a little down
this year than usual. Um, Mamouth is at home. They're
definitely be favored. Manhattan's the worst team, so it's at
(36:34):
least six. Let's say let's say Mommth minus seven, minus
five and a half. But you're getting the favorites, right,
So that's good. Well, yeah, I have to do that.
I mean that. If I don't do that, I don't
deserve to be sitting in this chair. Yeah. No, it's
I'm very impressed. All right. Last one before we go
to break, I'm going to give you uh St Louis
(36:55):
at Rhode Island Games. This is actually a good game.
Um So, Rhode Island I think is definitely the better team.
Let's say Rhode Island minus five and a half. Oh
my gosh, I was your closed this line. It was
minus six, But Jerry did get all the favorites, right,
So a plot a plod NBA talk Next Daily Rhodo
(37:16):
dot Com learned from the game's best dfs players. We
don't just give you premier advice. We play every day,
all major sports, all year round. We never stopped industry
leading DFS tools and custom projections, and now the Daily
Rhodo dot Com optimized in minutes, building optimized line up,
(37:37):
cast games and turneys learned from the game's best DFS players.
Joined Daily Rhodo dot Com Saturday night. Welcome back to
(38:04):
at the Window. The Jared Smith did the Vandal Sports
book where he's hoping to do some dancing, because right
now we are seeing St. John's up for thirty four
over Craighton and Jared feeling good could be an outright
dog winner there area. I feel good. I mean, listen,
(38:26):
I'm I'm getting hot tun on in the NBA last night.
The uh yeah, I'm getting hot right now. And I've
been lying. I mean, we've been down this road over
the last month. We've really like now that the Super
Bowl is done and we've had a full month to
really dive into hoops. You can tell there's a difference
between Cap and coop hoops during the NFL season. During
(38:48):
football season compared to February and beyond. There's just a
different level of intensity because unlike the NFL, NBA, and
college basketball's every single day, so you really get into
a rhythm. The NFL out in college football could be
a little disjointed sometimes. So I feel good about my picks.
I feel good about where I am in the futures market.
And March, I'm really excited. It's gonna be really busy month.
(39:09):
But man on man area, we've had a lot of
fun and we're winning some money. We're gonna a lot
of winners over the last few weeks on these networks,
in these shows. But we were having some fun a
little bit before with guessing the line. And I'm going
to throw some more at you because you said that
you wanted to keep guessing. You haven't hit any of
these lines. I want to hit one. I want to
hit one, So I'm gonna give you a little bit
(39:31):
of an easier one. We'll see if I hope you
don't know this one yet. But Indiana is at Illinois
at two o'clock. I did look at this earlier. It's
I think it's Indiana minus five and a half. Right, Yeah,
you're right. I was trying to give you a time.
I looked, I looked at all. No, no, no are
more fun. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the more obscure ones are better.
(39:53):
I want to obscure ones. Give me the craziest game
on the board. Middle Tennessee State is at right at
three o'clock. Alright, Middle Tennessee stayed at Rice. Let's look
up Middle Tennessee. So, uh, really bad defense. Uh, ranked
three twelve in the country and defense this year. Uh,
they've lost four of their last five. They're definitely gonna
lose at Rice, who was about a hundred spots better
(40:14):
than them in the polls. So it's I don't want
to say it's a full ten. Let's go nine and
a half. Let's go Rice minus nine and a half.
You really like them, No, it's race minus six and
a half. Alright, as normal I did. I did too
much credit there. I'm gonna value a Rice during yeahs
(40:34):
During Kentucky is at North Texas at two o'clock. Alright.
Western Kentucky has actually been a really good team in
Conference USA this season. Uh. North Texas has also been
very good. Uh, so this is gonna be a fun game,
exciting game. Both teams of nineteen wins. West North Texas
won five of the last six. Uh, They're the home team,
they're favored. Let's say let's say North Texas minus six
(40:57):
and a half. You got it right on the money.
He gets the line. We are one for I think
like eight. But you guess you've had all the favorites
so far. You have not been wrong in a favorite yet.
That's to me, that's the most important thing. And the
numbers could fluctuate too. So I'm looking at like projections
because teams favorites. That's true, you're right. Um, alright, another
(41:23):
looking at records and projections. That's it, all right, go ahead,
another obscure one. Let's give you there's not really any
more obscure ones. Um, Southern Miss at you tap good?
I feel like the Conference USA. We haven't talked about
Conference USA one. So Southern myth is Southern Miss and
you temper bad, like you're not gonna hear myth, myth, myth,
(41:43):
you're not gonna hear about any of these teams in
March past the conference tournament. Um, obviously, uh, you tap as.
The home team will be favored because they're the better
team in the rankings. So we're gonna say, we're gonna
say it looks like a five to seven point MARCHI,
So we'll spot the difference. We'll say we'll say Southern
miss Um. No, you tap minus six, you tap minus sex.
(42:06):
So close, you just have to add the hook six
and a half. Okay, really close though, Wow, this is
really impressive. Um Okay, you A B is at Texas
San Antonio at three o'clock. Okay, um U T s ah,
this is a really close game in terms of the
(42:30):
hire you No. I mean, it's not hard because you
just have to look at the ken palm does a
good job with giving you like what the projected score
will be, and then you have to adjust it based
on your handicap of those teams. So usually I tweak
it a couple of points in either direction depending on
where I feel. Um, I definitely think. I definitely think
San Antonio will be favored in this game at home,
(42:51):
because I don't think U T. S A is a
slightly better team in the U A B is a
slightly better team in the rankings, but not enough to
overcome a home court advantage. So we're gonna keep it
really close. We're gonna say U T S A minus
two and a half. Again, so close, you're off by
a hook so it is Texas and Antonio minus three.
(43:12):
Boom good. One thing that's standing out to me very
I'm very very confident about this. This is like fantastic.
I'm very impressed with this, and I think that our
MSG segments on the MSG network have to transition now
from Hey, Jared, what do you think of this line?
To Jared? What is this line? And all that's all
I have to we have we have to. NBA is
(43:33):
a little different because there's so much more public movement
in the NBA. I actually I don't know. I think
there's there's movement in college troops to NBA would be harder.
I think. I don't think I'd be as good as
the NBA college These projections are spot on. Camp Bomb's
projections are very close to what the Vegas lines usually are.
You think that right now? Test me on the NBA.
(43:55):
I have no I have not looked at much NBA
to have it other than the Pelicans game. I know
the Alicans line. I know the Pelicans. Okay, so I'm
not asking you. Yeah, because that one was really strange,
we'll talk about that. UM. I was actually very thrown
off by how like how little points um the Lakers
were laying, so very interesting there. But the first game
of the day is that one ten, So in about
(44:16):
twenty minutes, the Bucks are at the Hornets. Yeah, the
Bucks are gonna be favored. About Middleton's out, I'm gonna
same bucks minus seven and a half maybe, no, no,
no eight, let's go nine and a half, nine and
a half, nine and a half. I think they're a
little higher because Charlotte's been bad. Even higher than that
ten and a half, eleven and a half, twelve and
a half, Oh my goodness, thirteen and a half. Wow,
(44:46):
that's a lot of points. Do you like the Hornets
considering the horn No, but I can't bet the Hornets.
But that's a lot of point. I wouldn't lay the Bucks.
I wouldn't lay the four team with the box, but
I can't bet the Hornets. The Hornets been awful. That's insane.
So we're actually we're seeing a few of those and
Middleton's out. I could see you, honest, I could see
(45:08):
Honice only playing like twenty five minutes in that game.
The Bucks play the Lakers next week, so reduced work
when I mean Johanna's points totals at thirty and a half.
Would you stay away then because you think that he'd
be out? Yeah, because he's not exactly exactly. Okay, So
the next game, the Dallas Mavericks are at the Minnesota
(45:28):
Timberwolves at three forty today Eastern time. Dallas definitely will
be favored. Let's say Dallas minus four and a half. Oh,
that was really generous to Minnesota. No, they are the
Dallas Mavericks are favored at seven and a half on
the road. Okay, so three points off not great, but
(45:48):
not bad. See at the NBA's harder. The NBA's harder
College basketball college basketball the lot there's not as much
opinion with the lines. The college basketball lines are strict,
there's so many teams. The college basketball lines are strict
solely all in power rankings. So I can see the
power rankings, and you have to have some kind of,
you know, information about a team before you can guess
(46:10):
a line. So looking at the power rankings almost as
like a cheat code for guessing the line. NBA is
very different. The power rankings are what they are, but
there's a lot more adjustments based on injuries and matchups
and back to backs and this, and that's so the
NBA is a lot harder to get. It's really hard
to project the NBA, especially this early in the day.
I mean, fortunately, it's a Sunday, so we're gonna see
(46:30):
that those one o'clock and three o'clock games. However, during
the week, it's very frustrating because these some of the times,
like yesterday, we didn't know if the Lebron James was
playing until within what an hour the game, and the
only thing they gave us any indication of Lebron James
playing was that we saw the line move from the
Lakers minus eight to the Lakers minus nine. And that's
(46:50):
why guessing the line is pointless because we guess yeah,
because we could guess the line right now at one
o'clock for an eight o'clock game, and then Lebron gets
announced that he gets played, and then the line moves
three points, so you know. The NBA actually it's it's
actually funny of all the sports to handicap on a
daily basis, I actually think the NBA is the hardest
because it's every day and because there is so much
dependent on who you played last, who you're playing next,
(47:12):
and what the back to back load management, who's playing
who's not the NBA lines, there's so much variance. So
with that being said, a team that's been struggling with injuries,
the Philadelphia seventies Sixers there without Ben Simmons, they are
without Joel Embiid. Now they're on the road at the
Los Angeles Clippers. What's the line, oh man, big nine
(47:33):
and a half Clippers minus nine and a half. It's
even more, Wow, twelve and a half seen one, you're
one off, it's at thirteen and a half. So the
Sixers are getting thirteen and a half points in l
A today against the Clippers because of the loss of
Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. That's crazy, absolutely crazy. What
do you think this line would have been? Four? Five?
(47:58):
That's incredible six when I saw that point for each guy.
Maybe it's one of those things where you look at
it and your your mind that doesn't really process it
because you're seeing the Philadelphia seventies Sixers are getting thirteen
and a half points in a game, and then I
hate to say it, I kind of like that's a
contrarian spot for Philly Online. Remember they have one of
(48:20):
the worst on the road this season. There nine twe
the Knicks on the road before the Knicks lost in Philly.
Unlike this is uh, and that's fine. They don't have
to win the game thirteen and a half. They can
lose by thirteen and still cover. I'm not as concerned
with them winning the game. What what concerns me on
(48:42):
the other side, if you're if you're laying on the
Clippers is the Clippers have a really tough schedule coming up.
So you know, they play the Lakers I think next week,
So I I just I can't see them just blowing
the doors off of this game. Um, and they haven't
been blowing the doors off of a lot of teams lately.
They're they're winning Denver kind of aside from that, Actually,
you know what, they actually have been playing really well
(49:03):
the lad Maybe I will get to the window on
the Clippers today. Man, Philly, it really gets down early.
They might just quit in that game. I don't know.
I gotta look at it. I need to look into
what what George and Kauai did against Denver if they
I think George didn't really play that much, but I
think uh Kauai actually had a really I don't know.
I let me get back hill on that, but thirteen
and a half, that's a big number. That's a big number.
(49:23):
It is a huge number. We're going to talk about
some more NBA games. Jared's been guessing these lines. He's
done really well on college NBA. He's done okay, except
that there's been some injuries and there's some weird lines
in the NBA today. We're gonna talk more about it
coming up at the top of the next hour. I
really I've seen Jared Smith here on at the windows.
Stay tuned, we have a whole another hour left coming
(49:44):
up next on Sportscrip
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening the window.
(00:28):
I want all of you to get up out of
your chest. Then go to the window, open it, stick
your head out of here. It is to madness. I'm
Ariel and Senior Studio thirty four. I'm so excited that
(00:50):
we're finally at the month of March. February is always
the toughest month of the sports calendar to get through.
Jared Smith is at the Vandal Sports Book joining me now. Jared,
of course already text me and said, my futures bets
are in. It's March. Happy March. Thank you very much, Area,
And you know the futures bets that they're in. But
(01:10):
there never it's like fashion, it's never finished. I'm constantly
rebalancing the portfolio. I did so this morning we saw
that Kansas move I tweeted it out just before the
show Kansas from seven, seven and one to six to
one on FanDuel. So they're now fully established right now
as the best team in college basketball, the odds on
favor to win the title. Uh, you know, and and
and say whatever you will about Bill self and and
(01:32):
and you know the choking of the Jayhawks in Big
March games in the past, but they are now the
team to beat in college basketball. They will be the
number one overall seed when we do get to Selection
Sunday two weeks from today, Area, two weeks from today,
Selection Sunday. Very exciting stuff. It was crazy too, because
you actually tweeted a few days ago that you were
able to get Kansas at plus one ten and then
they weren't like minus one. Wasn't it tend to want
(01:55):
like what was it like minus one thousand or something
that you were able to see it at I don't
know how much? Yeah, what did you see? No, it's
it's not You can't even bet those number one seeds anymore.
And and they might be down just because you know,
some of the games have started and they usually take
those down while the games are being played. But uh
we we we kind of made that made that observation
(02:15):
last Saturday before Baylor played Kansas that Kansas was plus
one oh five. Some of them were even uh a
pick them money line against Baylor, but the number one
seed odds were plus one ten. So if and and
we made the very accurate prediction that if Kansas wins
that game, they will be the number one overall seed,
the number one UH seed in the Incidentble tournaments, basically
a lock for them if they beat Baylor on the road.
(02:36):
They did be Bailler on the road, and immediately the
line went from plus one ten to now minus a
thousand and and and Kansas, uh is a lot to
be a one seed. I think Baylor will be a
one seed as well. So will Gonzaga. I think it's
the fourth one seed, which well, I know we're gonna
talk about later. Uh, that's kind of up for grabs.
And there's certainly some teams that are in that mix,
Craton and St. John's that are tipping off right now.
(02:57):
Twelve o'clock was tips, So we're gonna actually of you
that game and talk about what to look for in game,
because even though we have in game live coming up
from two to four, we're pretty much in game live
here as well. We're gonna go over all the games
that happened last night major upsets just before we go
to the update, Jared, what was the upset that stood
out to you the most yesterday? Obviously it was Baylor
(03:18):
and TCU. Uh, you know, the Florida State Clemson game
was a bit unique. I think Clemson has been a
little bit better at home this year than than TCU.
That's why the horn Frogs win was a little bit
more surprising. And I think Baylor has a little bit
better of a pedigree at this point than Florida State does.
I'm not surprised that those teams went on the road
and lost in conference play. It happens all the time
in college basketball. I don't think those losses hurt uh
(03:41):
their their tournament chances at all. I think those are
things that just happened over the course of conference ploy,
and the a c C in the Big Twelve certainly
are good conferences in their own right. But I would
say Baylor's lost because of what they were unable to
do to stop TCU, who doesn't have a great offense,
and Baylor's defense is really good. That was the more
surprising result. We should have an update from the guys
in the pit. Guys in the pit that we have
(04:02):
an update to give right now. Nope, alright, Jared, we're
gonna keep this segment going. Maybe not ye, no update today. Okay,
we're gonna keep it going. So let's just keep talking
about this create in St. John's game, which is going
on right now. So creating at minus five and a half,
what line movement had you seen so far? I know
(04:22):
that you've seen some kind of crazy lad movements that
might have been going in a direction that the public
might not have thought would go in. Yeah, you know,
I was a little bit surprised. Uh, the majority of
the public, as they should be, is on creating in
this game. Uh. The Blue Jays have kind of been
one of those teams over the last few weeks. They're
on a long winning street. They have climbed the Big
(04:44):
East standings. Uh, they will most likely be the number
two seed in two weeks when we played the Big
East tournament, or I guess in a week and a half.
Now that's crazy how it will be a fantastic tournament.
But we did see the line move towards St. John's.
The Johnny's opened at five and a half. I saw
that dip to four and a half at some spots
this morning. It closed right around five, so we did
(05:07):
see a little bit of contrarian movement there towards St. John's.
I mean the Johnny's are nine into a Carnesseca arena
this year. That's been with Mustapha here and he won't
play today. But LJ. Figureau has been really strong for
the Johnnies this season. And I think Crab I mean
Craighton's in my future's portfolio. I think the Blue Jays
are one of those teams that can make a run
because of their offense. But this is a weird spot
(05:27):
for them at noon. They haven't played well at the
Garden of late and I know this game is not
at the Garden, it's in Queens, but I think there
is something to be said about a team that just
doesn't play well in this area and and and we'll
see if that continues today. I am on the Johnny's
plus five and a half, uh, and I'm trying to
get will it's on Fox, not on We don't have
it in their last ten and they've had three big
(05:50):
road wins. They've one against Villanovacin and Marquette. How much
does that make you like the Blue Jays today? Yeah,
I mean I think again. I think the Blue Jays
are a very strong team. I I think ty Sean
alexander Is is the biggest player of the year. Uh
and and I think Creighton, with the top ten adjusted offense,
can certainly be one of those teams likened to Auburn
(06:12):
last season that just gets hot from three, that just
figures out a way to score points in bunches over
the course of a four or five six game stretch
and make it to the Final four. I don't think
they are deep enough defensively to win the national championship,
but this is a Craton team that I could see
making a run to the final four. So I do
love them in the futures market. In this particular matchup,
(06:32):
laying six points on the road early spot in New
York City, an area they have not done well, I
think it is a good contrarian spot for St. John's.
We do see the Johnny's out to an early six
four lead. I don't see any adjustment, or at least
too big of an adjustment on the live line just yet.
But I am on St. John's plus five and a
half pree game if things changed throughout the course of
the day. Obviously, the live betting markets are are available
(06:56):
to me here, but I I do think the Johnny's
as a home dog today a good spot for them
to cover the number against the Creton team that's getting
a lot of the action and that certainly deserves the action.
But might not, uh might probably shouldn't be laying this
many points on the road. And I like it too
because St. John's two losses on their Queen's campus have
only come by two points, and they've only had two
(07:16):
losses on the Queen's campus there nine and two, So
it's not a bad spot. I actually really like that
pick because it is a lot of points. Yeah, No,
I mean and and and I think at this stage
in the college basketball season, these teams that are set
in terms of their playoff position, and crighton knows there
will be no less than a four seed in the
incident of like tournament, regardless of what happens this week
(07:38):
and regardless of what happens next week at the Garden,
they have done enough with their resume, like some of
these other teams that we've seen win and not cover
over the last week dating in San Diego State or
two that come to mind. Right out of the gates
that are established in their positioning, they have done it
off over the course of their regular season to tell
the committee, Hey, we are worthy of our seed. We
don't need to win out and and and blow teams
(07:59):
out and get style points down the stretch. We just
need to keep stringing together wins. And I think Creighton
has that mentality right now. So six points is a
lot to lay on the road. Uh, we'll see very
early on in the game. It's tied up at six
right now, We'll see if the Johnnies can continue to
play well at home where we keep previewing what we're
actually recapping yesterday's games. What are things that someone should
(08:20):
look for who's watching this Cretan St. John's game that
you would say, go in game and bet this one live.
I wouldn't. I mean, I guess we'll see it when
it happens. I think if if Craton is not shooting
it well from three, that is their indication of whether
or not they're gonna have a good day. Uh. And
they're over two so far to start, so you know, well,
(08:42):
and to me, that's the indication if if they don't
shoot it well from three, they're not gonna cover a
lot of numbers. Their defense isn't good enough uh to
sustain a lead unless they are just blowing the doors
off of their opponent. Uh. They're one of the more
unbalanced teams that I like to make a run in March.
And there are historical example of teams like that, like
like like Auburn that had a top five offense last
(09:03):
year and their defense was somewhere in the thirties, you know,
somewhere around forty. Craton's at fifty. So they're not quite
as as defensively sound as an Auburn team was last year,
but their offense is just as good, So to me,
that's the indication. So so look at Craton's three point
shooting numbers. Uh See, if they're struggling Carna Seca arena
is a bit of a cozier uh Jim, then maybe
(09:24):
Craton's used to be playing, and especially out there in
the Midwest. Uh in omaham No, not as overwhelming as
the Garden. And actually my my original handicap was that
they had struggled at the Garden last year, they were
only averaging sixty three and a half points in two
games at Madison Square Garden. They lost to Creighton at
the Garden, or they lost the St. John's at the
Garden last year, and then they lost the Xavier in
the first round of the Big East Tournament at the Garden.
(09:46):
One so they had so they're really good offense had
been held down uh in in the in those you know,
different circumstances. Some teams just don't play well at the
Garden area. Some things play really well at the Garden.
It is an interesting handicap because of the mystique of
the Mecca. It makes sense. And it's gonna be really
fun to watch this Big East Tournament at the Garden
in a couple of weeks because I really think that
(10:08):
it's a toss up between a bunch of teams. And
from someone who graduated from Syracuse and heard all of
the hype about Syracuse University in the Big East, and
it's really fun to watch history kind of repeat itself
and this conference to pull itself out of the woodworks
because it did face a downward spiral for a while.
Yeah no, and and they'll get you come back next year.
(10:31):
I don't think they'll ever get Syracuse back because of
the football scenario in the a SEC gives you, such
as someone who grew up Yeah, well, they have their
own network. The Big East does not, UH, And and
that is the difference, and that will continue to be
the difference that drives UH the landscape of college sports
football rules all and and it's just because of the
bottom well, I mean, you just can't compete. And and
(10:53):
one of my favorite UH documentaries about this is that
is that a thirty for thirty about the recoience and
the East and how it kind of split up. Yeah,
it's it's one of the best. UH. And thirty for
thirty does a great job with with with all other
documentaries and and I recommend anyone who's a sports UH
fan to watch a lot of them, especially that one,
because it really does show uh the rise and fall
(11:16):
of of what what I considered the greatest conference college
basketball conference of all time. And and and no one
will ever convince me otherwise. I grew up as a
Syracuse fan area. I don't know if you knew that
my cousin, uh, my older cousin went to Syracuse and
he was kind of always my big brother, because I'm
the oldest of of two siblings. So uh and and
and he took me to a lot of Jets games
(11:36):
growing up. That's why I'm a Jets fan. And he
also took me to a lot of Syracuse games. So
two thousand three was my junior either sophomore junior in
high school. Uh when Carmelo Anthony then won the tie
exactly Craig fourth, Billy etal in Josh Pace, I can
name the entire team. Uh. But yeah, I was a
big Syracuse fan growing up, So I I missed the
Big East. I missed those old days of the Garden.
We are going to talk more about today's slate of games,
(11:58):
and we're going to talk about yesterday's upsets and how
the implications are going to play a factor in the
odds market and for your pocket and for the sense
of these teams as well, because it's going to be
an interesting march. I want to be the next Daily
Fantasy Millionaire. Dunk on your NBA DFS competition with Daily
(12:19):
Rodal dot com and dominate on fandel and draft kings
this season. Compete with the pros with Daily Rodal dot
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(12:39):
donc to learn more. Welcome back to at the Window.
It is March first. We are talking so much college basketball.
(13:01):
There is NBA today, the XFL continuing into day two
of the weekend. However, college basketball the big story, especially
after two big upsets yesterday, for especially one team that
in my opinion, is in major contention for the national championship.
Jared Baylor falls to TCU seventy two yesterday. TCU covers
at plus twelve and the over hits at one seven.
(13:23):
How much does this have implications on Baylor's futures? Because
I know your Mr Futures over there at the Pandel
Sports Book, Mr Future. It's actually got a nice little ring.
I do smitty with the futures. Now you're gonna get
into store here, I do. I mean, I think if
(13:44):
there's anyone that's a master of the futures market that
we work with, I definitely think it is me, and
I think the reason Watchington Nationals exactly exactly. I didn't
how about Kansas City Chiefs as well. I mean, I
think I think in general, the reason that I feel
like I can identify with that specific style of betting
(14:04):
is because I have a macro approach to this, and
that is a perfect lead into what your question is
about Baylor and TCU. If you are a backer of
Baylor in the futures market, or you want to back
Baylor in the futures market, you should not be afraid
of a loss in the regular season, especially one like
this that's on the road in conference play against the
team that was hungry that you're gonna get there. You're
(14:26):
gonna get their best shot because they're not going to
the tournament. You're a top seed. It's the it's their
super Bowl. Basically, that was TCU, that was Jamie Dixon's
super Bowl yesterday, and they wanted congratulations to the horn Frogs.
But point you should, yes, exactly, you should welcome those
types of things because in in any financial market, the
goal is to buy low and sell high, and these teams,
(14:49):
you're crazy if you don't think they're they're they're they're
bought and traded like stocks. They are there there's an
open market. We view them every day and you might
not see the upticks and downticks, but they been on
a daily basis, whether these teams win or lose. I've
had I've seen situations where teams have lost and their
and their futures odds go down the next day because
just of the exposure in the marketplace. So uh, you know,
(15:11):
keep it eye on where Baylor's lines go. No, nothing
from Baylor yesterday. The one line movement we saw that
I tweeted out was Kansas and also Michigan State, and
that you know, we we we will talk about Michigan
State later because I do have a lot to say
about the Spartans. But you know, I think it is
surprising or nor maybe not surprising. Maybe it's intriguing to
(15:32):
note that Baylor lost yesterday Kansas one close game, they
didn't cover either, and it was Kansas that got the
bump in the futures market, not Baylor going down. And
I think that is more indicative of what we saw
last night, which was people weren't running off of Baylor,
they were running to Kansas. And and that's you know,
maybe maybe a bit of a you know, a left
(15:53):
in in the fork in the road when maybe you
thought it was gonna go right. So just keep those
things in mind. Don't necessarily think that just because a
team lost their futures market value will plummet. And and
if they do, sometimes it's an ovalreaction and you might
want to play on that team. So you know, keep
it up, you know, just just be mindful of these things,
and don't only think about the last game. This is
a broad market that we're trying to you know, handicap
(16:17):
here and and there's there's little things that happened throughout
the course of the season that will adjust it. But
I don't think one loss to TCU on the road
in conference play, when Baylor had been absolutely lights out
this season, with the exception of their big game against
Kansas UH is going to affect their future's odds that significantly,
Nor should it. I still think Baylor is a very
good team that Big twelve tournament. How much then, does
(16:37):
that match up if we see a rematch between Kansas
and Baylor have implications on potentially a one seed in
the tournament or do you think that they could both
have a one or you think they could both be
a one seed? That to me is the best question
of all of this, because what we're seeing in the
market place, at least what we had seen up until yesterday,
was that Baylor and Kansas were still priced the same
(16:59):
to be a one seed at minus a thousand, and
I think that's twofold. I think a those are the
two best teams from top to bottom what we've seen
from the beginning of the season until now. But also
it is indicative of the Big Twelve as a whole
being a very powerful conference in the r p I,
and that is where a lot of the seeding is based.
The tournament committee does a good job in separating the
(17:20):
teams in terms of Okay, they're in a large team,
they're not on that large team. But the seatings are
very much decided by regionality and also by what your
rating is. So I'm not surprised to see Baylor and
Kansas continue to be proised as major favorites to be
one seeds. I think they both will be one seeds
even with this loss to t c U yesterday. For
the Bears, because it is interesting to me, I thought
(17:41):
that the loss to Kansas didn't really affect them too much,
except it didn't make them the better team. It made
Kansas the better team. I just didn't think that, you know,
losing to each other really has major implications on their
futures or their one seed implications. I think, if anything,
it's more about placement and where you're gonna be regionalized. Yeah, no,
I totally agree. I mean, if if you look at
(18:03):
Baylor schedule and it's it's one of the more fascinating
schedules to break down because of the early loss to Washington,
who has not been a very good team this season.
So you know, early on in the year, people thought
Washington might be one of the best teams in the Pack,
well if not the best team in the Pack. Welvel
their thirteen and sixteen this year. They have really struggled.
They've got an elite level defense, but they have really
(18:24):
struggled to score the basketball this season. And the Pack twelve,
I think it is being undervalued a bit. So some
of these other teams in the Pack twelve they had,
I want to say, like a ten game losing streak
Washington did uh midway through the conference season. Uh, and
they have continued to struggle. They lost their Apple Cup
rivalry game against Washington State the other night. So Washington
is the only other team besides Kansas and TCU two
(18:44):
beat Baylor this season. Granted that was way back, uh
in in basically the first week of the regular season.
So it's almost even hard to compare the two losses
now and then because of you know, you're a totally
different team in November than you are in Mark now
for Baylor's schedule. On the back half, what we've seen
is absolute domination on the defensive end. That's something we
(19:06):
did not see yesterday against TCU. I was very, very surprised,
uh to see TCU continue to score and score seventy
five points against Baylor. Uh, they haven't given up seventy
points in I can't even find one on their on
their calendar. They haven't given up seventy five points since
novembery against Villanova. I mean, this is a team in
(19:26):
Baylor that has really held their opponents to under their
averages this season. They didn't do that yesterday against CCU.
That's why they lost. Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to
watch the Big Twelve. But another tournament that's interesting is
the a c C. Because the a c C is
usually the tournament where we say, okay, Duke, Carolina and
Virginia and Florida State even sometimes are fighting for that
one seed out of the a SEC. Who's it going
(19:48):
to be this year? It's more about is someone going
to come out of the a CEC that might have
been on the bubble, like Virginia. It's gonna be interesting.
And yesterday we saw Florida State lose to Clemson by
one point a d to sixty nine. So Clemson covers
at plus four and a half and the overcatches at
one thirty nine. I'm looking though, at just the final score.
Clemson beats Florida State, who is potentially a two seed
(20:11):
in the tournament. How impressed were you with Clemson being
able to come out and be at Florida State. We've
seen Clemson already this year. They were able to beat
UNC for the first time in Chapel Hill. Now they're
being in Florida State. Is Clemson a contender at all
for hurting someone's chances in the a SEC tournament or
are you just thinking Florida States not as strong as
(20:32):
we could have thought they could have been. Again, I'm
not too concerned with what happened against against Clemson. For
Florida State, and and I cautioned betters to take this
last week and really, you know, digest it with you know,
the best teams in the country going up against some
of the bottom feeders in their conference season, especially if
(20:55):
they're at home. So a team like Clemson that has
no chance to make the tournament, Uh, the a c
C has had a really down year. I don't I'm
not Clemson. And I've looked at Clemson as if, like
in the a SEC tournament, they could really hurt someone's chances.
I mean, between Duke and Florida Stay losing their two
games yesterday, you're looking at a team that could potentially
be fluctuating between a two and a three seed in
(21:16):
the n C Double A Tournament if they were to
lose early to Clemson in the second round. I mean,
I again, I just I caution better is to worry
too much about what happens with these big teams early
on in the conference tournaments and the last week of
the regular season. There's some big numbers out there. And
and just keep in mind that a team like Florida
State is not going to get impact, you know, to
(21:37):
like to them. They're not like, oh no, if we're
not gonna be a two seed, we're gonna be a
three seed instead. I just don't think that impacts the
games themselves. Florida State is trying to get through this
last week healthy because they're the one of the deepest
teams in the country. So it doesn't worry you at all,
not at all, absolutely not. It was a one point
game and on on a in a road in a
road atmosphere, in a tough atmosphere, in a conference game,
(21:59):
and there was a little some some funny business at
the end with Florida's stay. I just uh and and
and same goes for Duke. I mean, you know, Duke
has really struggled too, But I'm just and and credit
to Virginia for, you know, playing a really great game yesterday,
especially defensively, especially in the second half. And we nailed
the under in that game during in game lot because
I knew that the Duke was going to really be
the defensive uh staple in that game after giving up
(22:20):
one ten awake the other day. But Virginia also is
a very good defensive team. Just for these for these
really good teams, the top twenty five teams in the
last week of the regular season, your goal is to
stay healthy. The conference tournament is a little different, and
we'll handicap that when we get there. But there's one
week left in the regular season for all these teams
to maybe three games left Max. The goal is, let's
(22:42):
make sure that the same healthy team we have today
is playing in the conference tournament. Creating Florida State, Baylor.
These are teams with national title hopes. You know this
week is not You're not gonna win the national title
this week. You're not gonna lose it this week, either
from Virginia and then being able to beat do yesterday.
Can you see Virginia going into the a SEC tournament
(23:04):
with all the experience that they have in their head
coach as in the winning nature of that UM program.
Can you see Virginia being a contender for the a
SEC title? Absolutely? I think. I think if this is
a year where a team like Virginia can win six
in a row with no offense, continue to play well defensively,
(23:27):
they're the national champs. They are the reigning national champs.
So until somebody in a one and done scenario, I
I know it does, but you know you you've got
to you know this is a team, and this is
a team that got bounced from the a SEC tournament
early last year. They lost in the second round to
Florida State, so you know, and then they went on
to win the national title. Everyone was selling on Virginia
(23:48):
after that loss. Everyone thought Virginia was done. Then they
went sixth straight games. So I just don't like to
fade teams that have done it before. And that leads
me into a point against Michigan State that will get
to later that I think is very important to make.
I think Virginia definitely is a playoff team in the
a CEC tournament. We've seen the a CC really struggle
this year. Florida State, Duke Louisville, They've been very inconsistent.
(24:10):
They've been they look great at times. Those three teams
at their best have looked way better than Virginia. But
are we gonna get their best in the conference tournament?
In the n C Double A tournament, it's a little
inconsistent Virginia, I know what we're getting. Every game, they're
gonna they're gonna lock you down defensively. It's gonna be
interesting because the a CEC Tournament is definitely one of
those tournaments where the top contenders don't seem to really
(24:31):
care because they're eight teams to be set. At that point,
We're gonna talk about Jared's favorite conference though. Coming up next,
I have some beef with Spartans a tune. I want
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(25:26):
at the Window. I'm aery l f C and Jared
Smith is at the Vandal Sports Book. We just talked
about the Big East and how it's making a comeback.
We spoke about the a c C. We talked about
Baylor TCU and that upset with TCU upsetting Baylor yesterday.
A bunch of upsets in the A c C as
well with Duke losing and Florida State losing. That's a
small recap. However, we have the Big Ten to get
(25:47):
to as well. So last night Michigan State picks up
a big win beating Maryland. They really beat him up
in College Park. How much did that make you like
the Spartans more, Jared, I'm obsessed with the Spartans. I
am absolutely obsessed with Michigan State right now. I was
running I literally I think, Thank goodness, I have people
(26:08):
that I I friendly with that live in New Jersey
that I trust to log in and make bets for
me when I'm in New York City. Because Cassius Winston is,
in my opinion, when operating at full potential, the best
player in the country. I don't see anyone control the
game like he does. I think Peyton Pritchard does that
(26:29):
in Oregon a little bit, but he isn't as athletic
and as dynamic as Cassius Winston is. I think Winston
is gonna be an elite level pro. I think he
can do it all, and I love him and Xavier Tilman.
By the way, it's a package deal with the two
of them, the two of them together, like Dotson and
as a bookie for Kansas can control a game for
(26:51):
Michigan State. And what I like about Kansas is the
same as what I like about Michigan State. Role players
that can shoot the three. Kansas has them, Michigan State
has him. Kansas has the elite Guarden Dotson. Michigan State
has the elite Guarden Winston. Kansas has the elite Big
and has a bookie. Michigan State has the elite Big
and Tillman. They are mirror images of each other. And
(27:12):
I think if the bracket works out properly, it will
be Kansas in Michigan State in the n C Double
A Championship game. Uh in the first weekend, the first
Monday of April. Wow. Yeah. So I was telling you this, Jared,
because every single year I take Michigan Seed to go
to the Final four. Michigan State. I did not take
them to go to the Final four last year because
(27:33):
I was absolutely sick they go to the Final four.
I'm a little nervous to call them a final four team.
But it seems that you're very confident that tom Zzo
and his Spartans are getting there again. Oh, I and
guys in the pit, you can record this one for
the for the promo. Michigan State, with what they've done
(27:54):
this season, is probably the best value you will ever
get on a team with their level talent to win
the national title at this stage on March one. They
were twenty seven one last night to win the title.
To put that in perspective, the line moved down last night,
as you would expect after a big road went at Maryland.
(28:15):
And that is the other movement that we saw in
the futures market last night that I did not tweet out.
I was saving it for this segment because I knew
we were gonna talk about Michigan State. Uh well, you know,
I like to look out for our show. Sometimes I
don't put at all. I don't put all the free
information out on Twitter. Sometimes I do. I am very
generous with my information. Um, Michigan State, in my opinion,
has the same level of talent as Kansas, Gonzaga, all
(28:37):
these other teams that are priced to win the title,
but they are sitting well, believed, well beneath them because
of that incredible losing. I mean, it was one of
the most unique losing streets. I want to say. They
lost six straight games at one point during the regular season.
I want to confirm that, No, it was only it
was only three and four out of five. You you
usually do not see that from a Michigan State team
(28:58):
during the regular season. So they lost in the middle
of the season. They were basically a five team in
the Big Ten, and then they went on on a
nice little run. They've won three in a row, four
or five and they're five I think four either four
or five games over five in the Big Ten right now.
Uh And and they I think will not win the
Big Ten, but I think if they there'll be the
two seed, maybe they'll overtake Maryland. I'm not sure what
(29:20):
Maryland schedule is down the stretch, but that doesn't matter.
What matters is Michigan State is playing their best basketball
of the season right now. They are peaking at the
right time. And what Cassius Winston showed me last night
was that he can take over a game at any point.
He can take over a game. And what I mean
by that is not only scoring the basketball, but setting
up his opponents or setting up his teammates. And what
(29:43):
what Cassius Winston has that Peyton Pritchard also has this
incredible feel for the game. When his teammates are feeling
the hot hand, he knows it's time to dish. When
his teammates are struggling a bit, that's when he becomes
more aggressive and takes the ball to the basket, gets
to the basket, gets to the free throw line, or
is able to knock down shot. He just has an
incredible feel for the game, and that, to me is
(30:03):
what is so important in March, to be able to
know dictate tempo. This is the time for me to
take over. This is the time to let my teammates
who are playing well take over. And that's why Michigan said,
I think is an elite team, a Final four caliber team. See,
I actually like Michigan State more than I like Maryland.
I don't think Maryland's gonna go find this tournament yet.
If I'm looking at the odds, Maryland's at seventeen to
one and like we mentioned, Michigan State's at twenty five
(30:25):
to one to win the national championship. How much does
this make you dislike Maryland more? In a loss to
Michigan State at home, I really don't see Maryland making
it past the sweet sixteen. I really think Maryland is
is a very unique team this season because of what
they've been able to do late in games, and I
(30:46):
think that gives them a bit of an extra push.
Uh then I normally would give a team with their
personnel and with their pedigree. This isn't a Maryland team
that has had a lot of success in March. This
is a Maryland team that has a lot of talent, though,
and that's why if they continue to be consistent, they
can win some games in the tournament. I just don't
know if they have the ability to string it together
(31:08):
for forty minutes. What I've seen from Maryland this year
twenty great exactly, twenty great minutes and twenty four minutes
in March. That will get you bounced. You will not
overcome that in a tournament game against the quality opponent.
We've seen them have some late comebacks against Minnesota the
other night, that was a crazy one. We saw them
come back against Indiana very late. But what are those
teams have in common area? Those are not quality opponents.
(31:30):
If you face a Kansas or a Michigan State or
a Kentucky and you play twenty really poor minutes, you're
down twenty. The game's over. So I like, that's the
issue I have with Maryland. Can they string it together
for forty minutes? If they can? There is talented as
any of these other teams we're talking about. But what
I haven't seen from Maryland over the last month, which
is the meat of the Big Tent schedule, and the
(31:51):
Big Tent schedule is a proving ground for how to
win games in the tournament. It is deep, it is big,
it is physical, it is talented, and it is really
hard to win on the road. And that's what we've
seen from Maryland is they just felt string forty minutes together.
The home teams in the Big Ten have been dominant
this season, and I don't have the updated stats since yesterday,
but I do know majority of the hometown teams. Of
(32:13):
the home teams have won these games. I look at it.
Maryland lost on the road at Penn State. They beat
Ohio State at home and then lost to Ohio State
on the road. They lost at Wisconsin at Iowa. These
road losses are really big, and the only thing that's
funny is that they actually want at Michigan State and
then Michigan State won in Maryland. The Big Ten Tournament
to me is going to be super interesting because you're
(32:35):
on a neutral court and we're gonna see that there's
no home court advantage anymore for these Big Ten teams,
which is where they have all been thriving all season.
Right now, if you had to pick, are you going
Michigan State to win the Big Ten Tournament or do
you think that they don't care as much about these
conference tournaments and someone like a Maryland might win or
someone like a Michigan could come out on top and win.
(32:55):
There's two teams that I like to win the Big
Ten Tournament. I will be betting both of these teams
to win the Big Ten Tournament once the odds are released.
It is Michigan State, it is Wisconsin. I think if
you look back over time, these are the two most
consistent teams that have played in the Big Ten Tournament.
We've seen no Hall State Michigan have some success, but
I think this year it's Michigan State and Wisconsin that
are peaking right now at the right time. The Badgers
(33:17):
have won five straight. Greg Guard has been as consistent
of a head coach as you will ever see at
any level, and nobody talks about him. John Rostein calls
him the silent assassin. Literally, nobody, even some people don't
even know Greg Guard as the head coach at Wisconsin.
I bet if you pulled a hundred college basketball fans
that considered themselves legit fans, they could not tell you
who the head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers was. I
(33:37):
think de Metrir Trice has been a very underrated guard
for them. He's an upperclassman. What do we talk about
in March? Experienced talented guards win you games. Cassius Winston,
de Metri Trice, those are the two best guards in
the Big Ten Conference right now. I was a sleeper.
Luca guards that can take over a game at any moment, anytime.
Iowa is a sleeper. In fact, Iowa to me is
a is an n C double A as well, because
(33:59):
there's not I'm I'm I'm off our bandwagon. We can't
score right now, area, We're I'm not done. I think
we're gonna win a game in the tournament. I hope
we're gonna win a game in the tournament. I don't
think we can make a deep run. I just don't
think Penn State consistently now. He's scoring the basketball at
a level where they can control the game and golf,
and they're letting, they're letting teams run on them. Luca
Garza and Iowa absolutely demolished Penn State's defense in the
(34:23):
second half. Now, Guards is a really good player, and
that's why I do want to get to Iowa at
some point. Uh. In terms of a tournament team, I'll
probably bet on some Iowa Sweet six team props when
the bracket has released, matchup dependent. I think Iowa is
a team that can surprise some people. I think the
Big Ten will get more teams than any other conference
in the Sweet sixteen. When it's all said and done,
all right, we have two minutes before we go into
the NBA next segment. I want to ask you to
(34:46):
We're gonna play a little game and I want to
test really your knowledge on the odds because we have
about two minutes and I'm going rapid fire down some
games of some random teams that people wouldn't really look at.
So I want you to get to look up the
teams online. First though, I want you to give me
at least the second to look up the Ken palm.
I know, but that's fine, but you have to let
(35:06):
me at least give me. I have to at least
look at some because these some of these teams are
really off the beaten path. So go ahead, go ahead, Okay.
So the first one is Florida International is taking on
Charlotte in Charlotte today. Charlotte Charlotte forty niners have actually
been better. Okay. So Charlotte's fifteen and eleven this season
home against De Fiu has not been good. I'm gonna
(35:28):
say this is Charlotte minus three and a half Charlotte
minus five, Okay, was closed a little close one and
a half. All right, Marie's at Quinnipiac. For my goodness,
you're gonna get me with the MAC games, all right.
Maris is one of the worst teams in college basketball
this season. They're ranking is three O eight. They have
one of the worst offenses in college basketball this season.
(35:49):
They're definitely underdogs in this game. Quinnipiac has been decent,
but I think I think it's gonna be Marist. No
to be Quinnipiac minus seven and two off minus five. Okay.
Next one that's not that's not bad for being blind,
it's not bad at all. Our next one is Manhattan
(36:11):
at Monmouth. You love these Northeastern Games. Okay, uh Manhattan
another really bad offense under five team Mommouth. What does
Mammoth's deal this year? Momouth is okay, but they're not
a tournament team. The max has been a little down
this year than usual. Um, Mamouth is at home. They're
definitely be favored. Manhattan's the worst team, so it's at
(36:34):
least six. Let's say let's say Mommth minus seven, minus
five and a half. But you're getting the favorites, right,
So that's good. Well, yeah, I have to do that.
I mean that. If I don't do that, I don't
deserve to be sitting in this chair. Yeah. No, it's
I'm very impressed. All right. Last one before we go
to break, I'm going to give you uh St Louis
(36:55):
at Rhode Island Games. This is actually a good game.
Um So, Rhode Island I think is definitely the better team.
Let's say Rhode Island minus five and a half. Oh
my gosh, I was your closed this line. It was
minus six, But Jerry did get all the favorites, right,
So a plot a plod NBA talk Next Daily Rhodo
(37:16):
dot Com learned from the game's best dfs players. We
don't just give you premier advice. We play every day,
all major sports, all year round. We never stopped industry
leading DFS tools and custom projections, and now the Daily
Rhodo dot Com optimized in minutes, building optimized line up,
(37:37):
cast games and turneys learned from the game's best DFS players.
Joined Daily Rhodo dot Com Saturday night. Welcome back to
(38:04):
at the Window. The Jared Smith did the Vandal Sports
book where he's hoping to do some dancing, because right
now we are seeing St. John's up for thirty four
over Craighton and Jared feeling good could be an outright
dog winner there area. I feel good. I mean, listen,
(38:26):
I'm I'm getting hot tun on in the NBA last night.
The uh yeah, I'm getting hot right now. And I've
been lying. I mean, we've been down this road over
the last month. We've really like now that the Super
Bowl is done and we've had a full month to
really dive into hoops. You can tell there's a difference
between Cap and coop hoops during the NFL season. During
(38:48):
football season compared to February and beyond. There's just a
different level of intensity because unlike the NFL, NBA, and
college basketball's every single day, so you really get into
a rhythm. The NFL out in college football could be
a little disjointed sometimes. So I feel good about my picks.
I feel good about where I am in the futures market.
And March, I'm really excited. It's gonna be really busy month.
(39:09):
But man on man area, we've had a lot of
fun and we're winning some money. We're gonna a lot
of winners over the last few weeks on these networks,
in these shows. But we were having some fun a
little bit before with guessing the line. And I'm going
to throw some more at you because you said that
you wanted to keep guessing. You haven't hit any of
these lines. I want to hit one. I want to
hit one, So I'm gonna give you a little bit
(39:31):
of an easier one. We'll see if I hope you
don't know this one yet. But Indiana is at Illinois
at two o'clock. I did look at this earlier. It's
I think it's Indiana minus five and a half. Right, Yeah,
you're right. I was trying to give you a time.
I looked, I looked at all. No, no, no are
more fun. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the more obscure ones are better.
(39:53):
I want to obscure ones. Give me the craziest game
on the board. Middle Tennessee State is at right at
three o'clock. Alright, Middle Tennessee stayed at Rice. Let's look
up Middle Tennessee. So, uh, really bad defense. Uh, ranked
three twelve in the country and defense this year. Uh,
they've lost four of their last five. They're definitely gonna
lose at Rice, who was about a hundred spots better
(40:14):
than them in the polls. So it's I don't want
to say it's a full ten. Let's go nine and
a half. Let's go Rice minus nine and a half.
You really like them, No, it's race minus six and
a half. Alright, as normal I did. I did too
much credit there. I'm gonna value a Rice during yeahs
(40:34):
During Kentucky is at North Texas at two o'clock. Alright.
Western Kentucky has actually been a really good team in
Conference USA this season. Uh. North Texas has also been
very good. Uh, so this is gonna be a fun game,
exciting game. Both teams of nineteen wins. West North Texas
won five of the last six. Uh, They're the home team,
they're favored. Let's say let's say North Texas minus six
(40:57):
and a half. You got it right on the money.
He gets the line. We are one for I think
like eight. But you guess you've had all the favorites
so far. You have not been wrong in a favorite yet.
That's to me, that's the most important thing. And the
numbers could fluctuate too. So I'm looking at like projections
because teams favorites. That's true, you're right. Um, alright, another
(41:23):
looking at records and projections. That's it, all right, go ahead,
another obscure one. Let's give you there's not really any
more obscure ones. Um, Southern Miss at you tap good?
I feel like the Conference USA. We haven't talked about
Conference USA one. So Southern myth is Southern Miss and
you temper bad, like you're not gonna hear myth, myth, myth,
(41:43):
you're not gonna hear about any of these teams in
March past the conference tournament. Um, obviously, uh, you tap as.
The home team will be favored because they're the better
team in the rankings. So we're gonna say, we're gonna
say it looks like a five to seven point MARCHI,
So we'll spot the difference. We'll say we'll say Southern
miss Um. No, you tap minus six, you tap minus sex.
(42:06):
So close, you just have to add the hook six
and a half. Okay, really close though, Wow, this is
really impressive. Um Okay, you A B is at Texas
San Antonio at three o'clock. Okay, um U T s ah,
this is a really close game in terms of the
(42:30):
hire you No. I mean, it's not hard because you
just have to look at the ken palm does a
good job with giving you like what the projected score
will be, and then you have to adjust it based
on your handicap of those teams. So usually I tweak
it a couple of points in either direction depending on
where I feel. Um, I definitely think. I definitely think
San Antonio will be favored in this game at home,
(42:51):
because I don't think U T. S A is a
slightly better team in the U A B is a
slightly better team in the rankings, but not enough to
overcome a home court advantage. So we're gonna keep it
really close. We're gonna say U T S A minus
two and a half. Again, so close, you're off by
a hook so it is Texas and Antonio minus three.
(43:12):
Boom good. One thing that's standing out to me very
I'm very very confident about this. This is like fantastic.
I'm very impressed with this, and I think that our
MSG segments on the MSG network have to transition now
from Hey, Jared, what do you think of this line?
To Jared? What is this line? And all that's all
I have to we have we have to. NBA is
(43:33):
a little different because there's so much more public movement
in the NBA. I actually I don't know. I think
there's there's movement in college troops to NBA would be harder.
I think. I don't think I'd be as good as
the NBA college These projections are spot on. Camp Bomb's
projections are very close to what the Vegas lines usually are.
You think that right now? Test me on the NBA.
(43:55):
I have no I have not looked at much NBA
to have it other than the Pelicans game. I know
the Alicans line. I know the Pelicans. Okay, so I'm
not asking you. Yeah, because that one was really strange,
we'll talk about that. UM. I was actually very thrown
off by how like how little points um the Lakers
were laying, so very interesting there. But the first game
of the day is that one ten, So in about
(44:16):
twenty minutes, the Bucks are at the Hornets. Yeah, the
Bucks are gonna be favored. About Middleton's out, I'm gonna
same bucks minus seven and a half maybe, no, no,
no eight, let's go nine and a half, nine and
a half, nine and a half. I think they're a
little higher because Charlotte's been bad. Even higher than that
ten and a half, eleven and a half, twelve and
a half, Oh my goodness, thirteen and a half. Wow,
(44:46):
that's a lot of points. Do you like the Hornets
considering the horn No, but I can't bet the Hornets.
But that's a lot of point. I wouldn't lay the Bucks.
I wouldn't lay the four team with the box, but
I can't bet the Hornets. The Hornets been awful. That's insane.
So we're actually we're seeing a few of those and
Middleton's out. I could see you, honest, I could see
(45:08):
Honice only playing like twenty five minutes in that game.
The Bucks play the Lakers next week, so reduced work
when I mean Johanna's points totals at thirty and a half.
Would you stay away then because you think that he'd
be out? Yeah, because he's not exactly exactly. Okay, So
the next game, the Dallas Mavericks are at the Minnesota
(45:28):
Timberwolves at three forty today Eastern time. Dallas definitely will
be favored. Let's say Dallas minus four and a half. Oh,
that was really generous to Minnesota. No, they are the
Dallas Mavericks are favored at seven and a half on
the road. Okay, so three points off not great, but
(45:48):
not bad. See at the NBA's harder. The NBA's harder
College basketball college basketball the lot there's not as much
opinion with the lines. The college basketball lines are strict,
there's so many teams. The college basketball lines are strict
solely all in power rankings. So I can see the
power rankings, and you have to have some kind of,
you know, information about a team before you can guess
(46:10):
a line. So looking at the power rankings almost as
like a cheat code for guessing the line. NBA is
very different. The power rankings are what they are, but
there's a lot more adjustments based on injuries and matchups
and back to backs and this, and that's so the
NBA is a lot harder to get. It's really hard
to project the NBA, especially this early in the day.
I mean, fortunately, it's a Sunday, so we're gonna see
(46:30):
that those one o'clock and three o'clock games. However, during
the week, it's very frustrating because these some of the times,
like yesterday, we didn't know if the Lebron James was
playing until within what an hour the game, and the
only thing they gave us any indication of Lebron James
playing was that we saw the line move from the
Lakers minus eight to the Lakers minus nine. And that's
(46:50):
why guessing the line is pointless because we guess yeah,
because we could guess the line right now at one
o'clock for an eight o'clock game, and then Lebron gets
announced that he gets played, and then the line moves
three points, so you know. The NBA actually it's it's
actually funny of all the sports to handicap on a
daily basis, I actually think the NBA is the hardest
because it's every day and because there is so much
dependent on who you played last, who you're playing next,
(47:12):
and what the back to back load management, who's playing
who's not the NBA lines, there's so much variance. So
with that being said, a team that's been struggling with injuries,
the Philadelphia seventies Sixers there without Ben Simmons, they are
without Joel Embiid. Now they're on the road at the
Los Angeles Clippers. What's the line, oh man, big nine
(47:33):
and a half Clippers minus nine and a half. It's
even more, Wow, twelve and a half seen one, you're
one off, it's at thirteen and a half. So the
Sixers are getting thirteen and a half points in l
A today against the Clippers because of the loss of
Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. That's crazy, absolutely crazy. What
do you think this line would have been? Four? Five?
(47:58):
That's incredible six when I saw that point for each guy.
Maybe it's one of those things where you look at
it and your your mind that doesn't really process it
because you're seeing the Philadelphia seventies Sixers are getting thirteen
and a half points in a game, and then I
hate to say it, I kind of like that's a
contrarian spot for Philly Online. Remember they have one of
(48:20):
the worst on the road this season. There nine twe
the Knicks on the road before the Knicks lost in Philly.
Unlike this is uh, and that's fine. They don't have
to win the game thirteen and a half. They can
lose by thirteen and still cover. I'm not as concerned
with them winning the game. What what concerns me on
(48:42):
the other side, if you're if you're laying on the
Clippers is the Clippers have a really tough schedule coming up.
So you know, they play the Lakers I think next week,
So I I just I can't see them just blowing
the doors off of this game. Um, and they haven't
been blowing the doors off of a lot of teams lately.
They're they're winning Denver kind of aside from that, Actually,
you know what, they actually have been playing really well
(49:03):
the lad Maybe I will get to the window on
the Clippers today. Man, Philly, it really gets down early.
They might just quit in that game. I don't know.
I gotta look at it. I need to look into
what what George and Kauai did against Denver if they
I think George didn't really play that much, but I
think uh Kauai actually had a really I don't know.
I let me get back hill on that, but thirteen
and a half, that's a big number. That's a big number.
(49:23):
It is a huge number. We're going to talk about
some more NBA games. Jared's been guessing these lines. He's
done really well on college NBA. He's done okay, except
that there's been some injuries and there's some weird lines
in the NBA today. We're gonna talk more about it
coming up at the top of the next hour. I
really I've seen Jared Smith here on at the windows.
Stay tuned, we have a whole another hour left coming
(49:44):
up next on Sportscrip
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