March 8, 2020 • 49 mins
Ariel Epstein and Jared Smith break down each of the NCAA tournament divisions from a betting perspective and talk about their preferred bets. They also examine some of the NBA betting lines and more.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening The Window.
(00:27):
I want all of you to get up out of
your chest, go to the window, open it, stick your
head out of here. Welcome into the Sunday edition of
At the Window. I'm Ariel lefteen. It actually joined by
(00:49):
Jared Smith here in studio at Video thirty down Manhattan.
We're so excited to be able to see each other
face to face. Yeah, but we have to look at
the cameras though, so you know it's cameras. You're not here,
we don't exist. It's still the same thing. So, Jared,
we had so many college basketball games yesterday that really
irritated every better I think in America at least me too,
(01:12):
and none. But I had a good late last night.
I didn't tell you about this. It was a surprise.
I hit Washington on the Money Line at Plus four sixty. Yeah,
that was a nice one. Was that a last minute thing?
It was not a last minute thing. I didn't tweet
it out until after the game because I'm every time.
I was really selfish every time I tweet out picks
before the game. They even losing the last couple of those.
(01:33):
So I took a different approach and I waited until
about five ten minutes into the game. It hit, and
it hit, and this Washington team. Listen. If I had
to choose a dog right now to purchase, I would
choose a husky. I love huskies. They're my favorite dog.
I know it's the eyes that means that you have
to be an NC State fan. No, they're wolf Pack, Yeah,
but they're husky. Yeah, that's true, But they're not the
(01:53):
Huskies Washington. I know they really have a picture with
the wolf Pack dog mascot, the Husky dog. It's actually
a husky. But that's that's a that's that's a sidebar.
The real story here is this Washington team. Preseason was
very good. They were picked a finish third in the
Pack twelve. They were a top fifteen team I believe
at one point, and they went on this crazy losing streak.
(02:15):
They lost nine straight games mid season, they were banged up,
they had guys on academic suspension. It was it was
a rough year for the Huskies. But now they're starting
to figure things out. They've won three of their last four.
They just swept Arizona and Arizona State on the road,
and they are seventy five to one to win the
Pac twelve tournament. The Pac twelves wide open. There's no
dominant team in the Pack twelve. Oregon is good. They're
(02:37):
not great, they're good. They're probably the favorite, but the
rest of the Pac twelves wide open. Washington has been
playing well. We hit him last night on the money
line plus four sixty. I rolled those profits into a
seventy five to one bet to win the PAC twelve Attorney.
That's my biggest conference tournament bet thus far. Oregon did
beat Stanford last seven, won the PAC twelve and deservedly. So. Yeah,
(03:01):
Peyton Pritchard's the best player on the team and he's
probably the best player in the conference. Oregon and that
Pack twelve. And I mean, so you're you're seeing that,
you know this Washington team, do you think that they
could be in the at least the finals even and
go up against Oregon or do you like someone else
in that pack? No, I want to see Actually hold on, well,
let's let's pull up the Pac twel bracket right now
since it is set and it's actually a fast Really,
(03:22):
if you would have asked me, are we what are
we open up opening up the show with today, I
would I think it was to one to open up
with when I hit a plus four sixty money line bet.
That's my biggest money line pick of the year. Uh,
it was nice. So right now, Washington is the twelve seed.
They face Arizona. They face Arizona again, that's to that. Yeah,
(03:44):
I don't like that. I already hate my beat. No,
but then they if they do win that game, then
they face USC and then they would have to face
Oregon in the semis. So the way they don't fall
out well, and I will say this though, I'll probably
come off of Arizona Washington a little bit in that
first round game. I'll I mean it was I'll be honest,
because it's all full honestly today it's it's a hundred
(04:07):
bet to win ten grand. It's it's it's a bit.
It's like or something. It's a big it's a big bet.
I actually got denied by fan like they wouldn't let
me put the bed in last night. They like kicked
it back. They only let me put like six dollars in,
and then I put it again in this morning and
it went in. Actually, why do you think that happened?
Because I'm too sharp, I'm moving the line. Yeah, definitely. Okay,
We're gonna beer off of the pack twelve a little
(04:29):
bit right now, and I think we have to go
with one of the bigger games of last night. I
guess we could say it was Utah State beating San
Diego State, the five seed, so UTAs day win six
in Utah State gets the Mountain West title and they
get an automatic bid into the n C Double A Tournament.
How shocked were you at that result, because, to be honest,
(04:51):
I wasn't. Yeah, I wasn't that shocked. I mean I've
been saying I think we actually said this last weekend,
last Sunday, the major favorites, the big favorites to win
these conference tournaments. There's no value there. You're not getting
any bang for your back. I think San Diego State
was minus three fifty to win this tournament. Utah State
was plus three fifty in the championship game. San Diego
State was like minus two twenty minus two thirty. Why
(05:13):
would you lay three fifty to win three games when
you can just lay to twenty thirty to win one game.
Like it just it just doesn't make sense. So so
that's why anyone who was was putting money on them
to win the Mountain West. That was a mistake. Now
if you bet them last night. I actually did like
them last night, San Diego State. I thought they would
win and cover, and they looked really good early. I
(05:33):
think they were up eleven at one point in the
first half, and you know, you feel good for that
Greg Meryll Kid or Sam Merro. I forget his first name,
sanm Merrow, whoever. The I know his last name is
Meryl because it was it makes sense because that's where
I used to work at, so I I associated with
those two names, Merrill Lynch, so I know his last
name is Meryl. He had a big shot. Good for him.
Utah State deserves to be in the tournament. Utah State
(05:55):
covers as five point dogs and it was plus one
ninety on the money line. Ute's day was on a roll.
How are do you see them really going in this tournament? Yeah,
I mean I think yes, matchup dependent and actually I
haven't checked. I haven't checked. Um, I don't know if
Leonardi updated his bracketology from yesterday. He did, actually, so
(06:17):
let's see who we are as Utah State. Um, he
has them right now in the six eleven game against Michigan.
I mean, you know that, and I'll say this, you know,
but here here's the thing. Six the six eleven is
the new five twelve because the eleven seeds now are
almost just as good as the sixes, because the sixes
are usually average mid majors, and the elevens for the
(06:40):
most part are I mean average majors high majors, and
the elevens and twelves for the most part are the
top mid majors. So the top mid major programs and
the average major programs. There's the gap between those programs
have been lessening. I've seen those teams favored, the eleven
seeds favored in the six Michigan, Probably not Michigan. Probably
(07:00):
not Michigan. Yeah exactly. But but I'll say this, Utah
State is a top ten team in height. They're not
gonna get out muscled by Michigan. And they've got this
this kid talking me about height. How much can you
compare them to the Texas Tech team of what last
year or two years ago? The beat UNC. I don't
think Utah States as talented as that team. But they've
got this big man, this quate, a kid who dominated
(07:22):
San Diego State yesterday. And San Diego State's got this
really good big man UH named Yanni Wetzel who had
dominated the tournament up to that point and he got
punched around a little bit yesterday. I think Utah State's
alive dog. I I think I think there's two teams
uh in that conference that can win a game or two.
I think San Diego State can win three or four
and get to the final four. Probably not, but they
(07:43):
have the talent to Utah State can go to Sweet
sixteen if they have the right matchups. They they have
some legitimate they have some legit size, and they've got
a legit score. And now they're hot and they're riding
that wave and we'll see the problem is they get
a week off, they don't play next week. That's being
momentum potentially, especially because these conference tournaments are starting up
for all the exactly, so everyone else gets to play.
(08:05):
But I'll say this though about that. What that means
is everyone else will play, and there will be other
great performances between now and then, and people will forget
a little bit about Utah State, so the the their
lines will not be bet that strongly, probably in the
n Double A Tournament, because there's such a recency bias
with this stuff, and there's such a public swing of
(08:25):
funds that come into the gambling market week of the
n C Double A Tournament them money square money, and
no one's gonna be betting on Utah State that week
because no one's watched them the previous week. So keep
that in mind whenever these like, if it's Utah State
against Michigan, it's gonna be like the action is gonna
be on Michigan, so that that's where you can find
value and a dog. But on the flip side, didn't
(08:47):
make you concerned at all for San Diego State, Yes, absolutely, yes,
san Diego State is kind of limped to the finish line.
We could say the same thing about our Nurney Lions.
But it's it's been a it's been an interesting They looked.
I watched every one of San Diego States games this week.
There was a part in each game first half against
(09:07):
Air Force, first twenty five minutes against Boise State until
like the last like ten when they really turned it on.
And not necessarily yesterday, but there were pockets where they
just kind of looked like they were coasting. And I
understand why in the back of these kids minds, they're
saying that they know they're probably going to be a
number one seed, are going to be a one seed
(09:29):
still and and and to to to just confirm that,
actually Lenardi switched it today. Wow, Yes, San Diego State
is the two in the West. That actually and and
and the funny thing about that is he has Dating
is the one seed in the East. Man Dating in
Kentucky would be a great Elite eight matchup at the Garden. Um.
(09:49):
That's what he has right now. One two in that region.
Dating and Kentucky in the East. Um, that would be awesome. Um.
I mean because the regional rivals to they battle for
a lot of Like tap tappened was Tappened was recruited
a couple of those other SEC schools. He just decided
not to go um because he's from Ohio. UM, so
San Diego State in the West makes sense though Ario
they're in Sacramento, and then they play in l A
(10:12):
against Gonzaga. That's a good like that. I would prefer
that to having to play to be in the one
and play Kentucky in the East at the Garden. So
if you're San Diego State and you're in the Elite eight,
who would you rather play Gonzaga in Los Angeles miles
from home or Kentucky at MSG. I mean, that's a
no brainer. Who would you rather play there? Well, it's
(10:33):
about the rest of the seeding too, and who else
the matchups would be because that's all the way in
the Elite eight, So who else in San Diego State
have to then play as a two? See if if
these and again, ironically enough, this will be a funny one. Um.
To preface this, this is what we're seeing in the bracketology,
and Leonardi is really good at this. I think he's
as good as anyone at this. But it's all hypothetical.
(10:53):
So he has San Diego State in the seven ten matchup,
so the two fifteen, you assuming they win that game
in the seven ten match up, it's Colorado East Tennessee State,
which would be an interesting matchup. But let's say they
get to the sweet sixteen. So the three six is
Seaton Hall and Penn State. Oh, I like this matchup
he has in Albany right now, Seaton Hall and Hofstra
(11:15):
that one. I like that one a lot. And he
has Penn State in the six eleven matchup against the
winner of NC State in Texas. In the playing game
in Albany. We should go. If it's in Albany, I
would be down only like an hour and a half
north here. It's a fun little rod. It's not a
bad rod. I mean hopping the car go up. Speaking
of Seton Hall, because we saw, yeah, Penn State and
Seaton haller on a downward sirral a little bit. I
(11:38):
mean Penn State. Definitely Hall not closing out this season strong,
and it's making me nervous for Seton Hall. We'll talk
about it more on the other side, how Seton Hall's
end of the regular season could potentially hurt them down
the line. Stay here on at the window, Ariel and
Jared Smith keeven you updated for the next four hours.
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(12:53):
Bart and I already arguing over the season tournament. I
think they did. Okay, So we're having this argument over
North Carolina because UNC did they lose? Yeah? Okay, So
un C and Duke played last night and I was
interesting in Greenboro, different different venue. I was irritated because
(13:14):
I took UNC plast today a half because U n C,
no matter how bad they've been, has not lost by
double digits. And I can't even tell you how long
I'm meant to look this up, and I completely forgot
to look up how long ago it was. But these
games are always by very close margins. And this Duke
UNC game the first time went to overtime and UNC
lost by two. I wasn't thinking UNC would lose by
(13:35):
double digits last night. And now Jared is telling me
that there's value on UNC at one to win the
a CC tournament right when the So I'm making two
bets right now. Actually no, I'm not going to make
the second bet. The second bet we're making together. The
first bet that I'm making right now is Virginia at
seven one win the a c C title. I love
their draw, So here's like that more than UNC. Yes,
(13:58):
and that's why I'm actually putting my hard earned money
on this bed. So Virginia seven and want to win
the a SEC title. They're the two seeds. They don't
have to play to the quarters. They'll face the winner
of Notre Dame Boston College, which I think is a
really good matchup for them, and then they'll face probably
Louisville or North Carolina in the semifinals. And they just
beat Louisville last week or yesterday, So I don't the
(14:20):
thing for you in the finals, you're making money. What
scares me with u NC is that they do have
to play that extra day. They have to play on Tuesday,
two extra days, well, two extra days, and what they're
used to, they usually don't start playing until Thursday. They
usually get that double day by, but those bottom four
teams or bottom six teams play on Tuesday, and then
the majority of the teams will start playing Wednesday. But
(14:43):
the top two seeds, I think, play Thursday. Those are
their first games, the top two, top four. No, it's four,
it's a double It's exactly like the Big Ten with
four teen teams. There's a double by. So the top
four teams get the double by and they are into
the quarters. Duke is the four, Louisville the three, Virginia
the two, and Florida State did win it last night.
Virginia's got a really nice draw. Virginia's got a nice draw.
(15:06):
They don't have to face Duke again until the final.
Louisville they just beat and they really match up well
against them defensively. And Notre Dame in Boston College is
a terrible matchup for Virginia. Virginia is gonna slow both
of those teams down. Neither of those teams haven't. Yeah,
so neither of those teams are really good offensive teams.
Virginia is gonna eat that game up. Virginia's playing their
(15:27):
best basketball the season right now. The defending national champs.
They have something to prove. I can't believe I'm saying this.
Virginia won the a CEC Tournament a couple of years ago,
two years ago. Yes, Virginia as the defending national champs
have something to prove, A chip on their shoulder in
the a c C Championship. I never thought I would
say that, but because of the season they've had, they have,
(15:49):
they have a chip on their shoulder in this tournament.
And Florida State, I don't fully trust them to win
big time games against good defenses, but I like Florida
State a lot. I think Florida State in Virginia, i'd
be if that's not the a c C Championship like Virginia. Honestly,
it's so Virginia for them to win the a SEC
tournament and then get knocked out in like the second
round of that. I don't think they're gonna win the
national title again this year, but I get repeating I
(16:11):
think they have something to prove. I think people are
still doubting them, and at seven to one to only
have to win two games to get into the finals.
One of those games is gonna be against either Notre
Dame or Boston College. The other one is going to
be against a team they just beat. I think it's
a really really smart pick for value. If you get
me a seven to one team into the championship game,
(16:33):
I'm gonna make money over under. How many times Syracuse
said coach Jim Beaheim complains about playing in Greensboro. You
would know better than me. You've actually covered that tournament.
I would say two and a half. He'll he'll complain
at the pregame press conference, like the preview, like they do,
like a media availability, like the like tomorrow. Probably he'll
(16:54):
complain then and then if they lose again, So one
and a half over, because they're gonna lose at some
point if they If they win, he won't complain. So
after wins he'll be good. He'll complain pre pre tournament
and then after they lose. So twice. He hates playing
in Greensboro. He loved when they came to Brooklyn next year. Yeah,
(17:18):
two years, two, it's some. It's sometime soon, all right.
We have some games going on right now, though, Jared So,
Michigan and Maryland are playing great game. Maryland's up eight
seven at the moment, Maryland four and a half right
now on the live line. Um, they're laying the points
and then the total one seven and a half. Your
thoughts on this game? Yeah, I'm watching right now. You
(17:39):
know it looks like a kind of a sleepy start.
These Big Ten games. First first half unders are good
bets when you when you got the noon games. Keep
keep that in my next week when they start facing
these tournament games and they're playing at noon in Indianapolis
and it's eleven am. Uh So you know it looks
like Maryland's defense is coming to play today. I was
(18:00):
surprise the line was as high as it was. To
be perfectly, Frank, I missed out on Boston. You that
was the pick I was looking at earlier in the
Northeast Conference. Boston University is having a really good start
against Buck Now, I mean in the Patriot League. Excuse me, um,
but I think Maryland has a little something to prove
in this game. I I think they're better than well
because they've they've lost their last two. Right, I'm just saying, like, why,
(18:22):
like in a game like this where I'd say everything
is pretty much set in stone, for it's actually weird.
In the Big Ten, there's like you there's a little
bit like you really think that they're you think that
they're really over exerting themselves. So yeah, what's Senior Day
for Maryland? So yeah, you know, I mean, I think
this is a weird day for the regular season. This
weekend is weird. You know it is. I agree. How
(18:42):
do you how do you handicap that you can't? You
can hope that you're on the right side of it,
but mindsets really tough. Like we saw Penn State come
out on Senior Night and torch Michigan State in the
first half and then just totally sleepwalked through the second
half and get killed. So it's and some teams are
the opposite where they where they struggle early on Senior
Night because the emotions of the day kind of captured
(19:04):
that early stage, and then they settle in and then
they get better as the game goes on. Very hard
to handicap one or the other. I'm just I'm upset
because I was literally about to text my buddy to
put money on Boston. You minus six and a half
and they're up like nineteen eight in the first eight
minutes of the game. You can still get Boston on
live line eleven and a half though, the other interesting
game today. So Hofstra is the Darling and the Colonial
(19:26):
this year, and Hofstra is like the New York Jets
of the Colonial. Was that was it supposed to be
what you see in Leonardi? Was it Hofstra? You said
against against which would be a fun matchup? Um. I
also saw a Hofstra against Villanova in a bracket earlier
this week, which is the Jay Wright game because he
used to coach at Hofstra. Um. So Hofstra, I've had
(19:48):
the you know, fortunate opportunity to cover the pride many
times over the last few years. This is a program,
no pun intend It has a lot of pride um.
They they continuous lead, do well in the regular season,
and continuously fail in the postseason. Last year they lost.
I think they've lost in the CIA Championship game two
years in a row. Um. I know they lost in
(20:09):
the championship game last year went to overtime. I remember
watching it vividly, like saying, oh my goodness, Hofster is
finally going to get into the tournament. Uh, and they
just can't do it year after year. Hold on, I
want to I want to look this up because I
want to give exact like they they've had like a
jets in history in the CIA tournament, Like it's been
really bad. I need them there we go. So the
(20:31):
Colonial is a really tough league, Like it is a
very tough league. And the prior or good team they
won the tournament or they won the regular season. Last
year number one seed lost in the championship game. In
two thousand eighteen, they were the number three seed lost
(20:51):
in the Semis two thousands. I mean, it's just every year,
it's like just bad beat after bad beat. Last year
was really bad because they were the number one seed.
They now they've in the one eight matchup today and
against dreg souls. They should win this game. But that
don't stop believing segments, you don't stop believing you. I
want hot to win so bad I would I wanted
like this team. Like you know, when you cover programs,
(21:11):
you know, and you covered ECU especially, you get attached
to the smaller programs, like you're you're very attached to
the kids, like you're very attached to the to the
players and the s I D s and all that stuff.
Hofstra like deserves to go to the tournament. They just
deserve it. I hope this is the year. Yes, speaking
of East Carolina does play today, but there is no
shot of East Carolina. No, honestly, like it was actually
(21:35):
more of the Triangle schools. Like when people say to me,
did you like UNC, do Guarantee State? I said, I
actually like all three. It was really fun the a
CC tournament what um yeah, they just like basketball wise,
just weren't you weren't there for the Chris Paul days, No,
I was not. No basketball wake was not really relevant.
(21:56):
They would pull up some they pull some upsets here
and there, but ultimately in the a SEC tournament, it
was really fun to cover them. And um ka bowman
to Bowman was from eastern North Carolina, was not recruited
by any of those North Carolina that name a lot
working with you the last few month, huh. But now
he he sprained his ankle, but he is up at
the Warriors, right, I know, and now he's going he's
(22:16):
hanging out with stuff that must be cool. See, Like
to me, that's like obviously making like these guys. And
that's why you get attached to the smaller schools because
then you see some people make it and it's really
it's really fun and that's why I think, and we
made this point on the Morning After earlier this week,
that it's so important to these players at these smaller
programs in these UM Conference tournaments right now, who like
(22:38):
at a Utah State are now going to get a
chance on the big stage. And those are those storylines
to watch someone at Utah State. How can they maybe
make a name for themselves in the tournament? Maybe someone
and like you can get yesterday and knock one of
those shots down to win, yeah, and you'll get recognized.
You might not make it, but someone might look at
you and give you a shot and let you go
on their practice squad, sign you to the G League.
(22:58):
It's it's an opportunity. Just like who was the the
nun for Loyal Chicago. What was her name? Jean? Sister Jeans?
Mr Jean lost. I know, but they went to the
final four. I meant like they lost yesterday. Oh yeah,
they did lose yesterday. They are not yes. Unfortunately. The
funny thing is on social media everyone was saying, oh
(23:20):
so and so, like Sister Jean lost. They didn't say
that like the school lost the ramblers everyone And here's
and it's actually funny. This is a great gambling nugget.
So this is a good one. This is called the
post tournament hangover team. I saw so much love for
(23:41):
Loyal Chicago and UNBC and these teams on Twitter in
their tournaments for no reason other than people know who
they are. Those are those teams are overvalued in the
market like they are like because they, unlike other mid majors,
are getting a lot of public love. Loyal is the
big one for me because they used to have the
more cognizable pop culture figure in Sister Gene, where people
(24:03):
will literally just bet Loyola for Sister Gene without handicapping
the game at all, like, oh, they won that tournament
like that. I mean, they got so far in the tournament,
and so if they were in the tournament this year,
I would be fading again and on on the lines
because there would be value on names. So just keep
that in mind when you're really is so different than pros.
I mean, these teams are different, and usually teams like
those small programs have senior leadership, which means thereby by
(24:26):
a gun anyway, who are going to back from More
about the games going on right now, NB A huge
matchup coming up at three thirties stay here on the
sport spread and what show are we on at this point?
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(24:48):
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(25:31):
I'm back to at the window with CHARTSTI team. We
have a few basketball games going on in college groups
right now. Yeah, Memphis facing off with Houston. Houston up
thirteen to seven and Houston laying ten and a half points.
It's the first half, buck now, busting you, busting you up.
They're laying nine and a half. And Jared really like
buston you today. I did. And the lines getting back
(25:52):
to a point where I might get him at six
and a half. Maybe we'll get him at lesson six
and a half. I hope up Nell goes on a
little first half. Ron, it's a little late. It's already
you know, more than halfway through the first half, so
I think I missed my boat. I did. I did.
Like Boston, you uh, they had sweat Buckneil twice this year.
They've beat him by twenty on the road earlier this year,
which was a really nice win. Up eleven early. Drexland
(26:14):
Hofstra tied early. Maryland looks really good defensively, they look
really good today. I think they're gonna Michigan's gonna have
a tough time scoring on this big Jalen Smith, Who's
I expected Maryland to put together a good performance today.
I unlike Penn State yesterday we were on the road.
Penn State's been struggling on the road Northwestern, I know
(26:35):
against one of the worst bad loss college basket downward
spiral for Penn State for sure, But we've talked a
lot of college It was the first two segments. I
want to touch on the NBA a bit because there's
a lot going on in the NBA. So yesterday underdogs
were if I haven't won against the spread with four upsets,
a lot of upsets, But today is a huge is
a huge game for the Lakers and the Clippers. At
(26:58):
three thirty, you want to hear the cre easiest stat
have heard all season. The Lakers are seven and one
straight up this year as an underdog. Yeah, that's to me.
That's and they're beating the spread in those games by
an average of thirteen points. Seven points, which means they
(27:18):
are blowing teams out as an underdog. I liked it.
And the Clippers are on fire like they're the Clippers
are playing their best basketball this season. So I look
at this game in two ways. Lakers is an underdodog
is a is a juicy, juicy uh dog. They are
(27:41):
the best underdog in the league, hands down. But I
think the books are really trying to to tell you
something with this line. I don't think this line is
taking into account home court advantage, because let's be frank,
there's no home court advantage at Staple Center for either
of these two teams. If anything, the Lakers have it
at all times regardless of who the home team is,
So unlike the Lakers going to Denver or going to Houston,
(28:06):
there is no home court edge baked into the line,
at least, I don't think. I think the books are
very blatantly telling you that the Clippers are the better
team right now. Well, I think this has a lot
to do also with Milwaukee and l a playing on Friday.
I think that I think that with you mean like
(28:26):
a rest factor after because not even so much rest factor.
It's just like coming off of a game to potential
NBA Finals. And I mean like this is that was
potentially the NBA Finals right there, and the only other
team that potentially could be on the West is the Clippers.
And now the Lakers have to go essentially not back
(28:47):
to back, but you know within three days of each other,
two days of each other, they have to go and
play the two best teams in the NBA. I think
it's a tough task to ask of a team, even
the best team right now in the NBA, which is
of Los Angeles Lakers. I like your handicap, and and
what we just did is we just completed the circle.
Me doing the first part, you're doing the second part.
(29:08):
So I was I'm telling you that the line to
me is very telling here because I'm surprised the Clippers
are laying two and a half, and you brought it
home by saying, well, that's because they're coming off of
their their most physical game of the year, which is
a very good point. These are there. This is their
most physical weekend of the year. Yes, it this is
to me. If the Lakers win this game today, they
(29:32):
can basically close up shop and say, all right, we
showed you guys who the best team in the end
in the West is, and you might start to see
the minutes load. You know, it's crazy to think because
it's been such a the sports gambling calendar rest for
no one area. It feels like yesterday we were crowning
a super Bowl champion Selection Sundays in a week. The
(29:52):
NBA season is a month away from being over. Like
like the season is for the most part, we know
what these teams all. There's fifteen twenty games left max.
For these teams. Not much is going to change. There's
a couple of teams that could play their way into
better positioning. But if the Lakers win this game today,
it's a presumptive positive that they're the number one seed.
(30:13):
I mean, there's almost nothing that can happen to the contrary.
It would almost be a statistical improbability for for them
to not be the one seed if they win today.
If they lose today, I want to say they have
a three and one to say that the Lakers go
one and one on the weekend. That's what my hunch
ones to say, the same way that my hunch said,
I can't see the Lakers going down to nothing in
(30:34):
the series with the Bucks for the season, because even
though I liked Milwaukee as a dog, I wanted to
take the points with Milwaukee on Friday, but I didn't
because they said, can you see in the stats that
the Lakers go down to nothing to the Bucks on
the season. No, and I couldn't. I thought the Lakers
And it sounds like such a weird handicap because there's
no stats. You're not giving information. It's a guts dealing.
(30:56):
But that's my gut feeling was I couldn't see the
Los Angeles Lakers being oh and two against the Milwaukee
Bucks on the season. I've been pushing you to put
more of that kind of you know, analysis into your
handicapping instead of just line movements and trends. I think
that's a I think that's an important part of what
we see on a daily basis. Yeah, and and also
(31:18):
trust what the numbers say. You know the numbers are
telling you something, Sometimes you trust them. Sometimes it's okay
to fade them. Like in this game, I'm picking the Clippers,
even though the Lakers are seven and one straight up
as an underdog this year, like the numbers say the
Lakers are the best underdog in the league. You're getting points,
that's the value. That's where you should side. But I
(31:39):
am saying the line is telling you in this spot
to take the Clippers. So trust that. Sometimes it's okay
to fade it. Sometimes it's okay to trust it. The
more you do this, and you've been doing this a
lot over the last few months, every day you do
it and you see lines, and Vegas has a weird way,
and the odds makers have a weird way of sometimes
giving you the ants that they're giving you. The answer
(32:00):
is to the questions before they give you the test
and Vegas to meet today is saying the Clippers are
the better team. Trust your gut. Right now, they're playing better.
They're they're the better team right now. Today might change.
I'm gonna make you guess the props. Have you looked
at them, because I know that they come out kind
of late. I had. I looked at Kauai's props because
(32:23):
I did. I picked that for the for the writing
segments that I do. So I picked Kai's three point
over two and a half. I'm getna. Well, here's the thing.
Those are easy to get because they are his averages.
It's twenty five and a half or twenty six and
a half. Okay, where's the juice? Probably on the under
most likely because the game's shading under and it's a
low it's a low point total, all right, twenty six
(32:44):
and a half. It's plus one to take the over. Yeah,
I would say, I would say stay away from that.
I like his three point props for some reason, he
doesn't like driving against against Davis and Lebron, he shot
a ton of threes. And actually it's funny because the
replay of the Christmas Day game is on right now
on the screen. Um, he went, I want to say
he went five for seven in that game against the
(33:06):
Lakers earlier this season from three in the Christmas Day games,
Paul George in that game. Everyone played in that game.
I was I was looking at the box score that
game last night, the box score that game last night,
the Laker. I can't believe the Lakers lost that game. Um,
they were up one, they were up by seven with
six minutes left and they scored five points over those
(33:28):
final six minutes. That to me shows you everything you
need to know about who the Clippers are defensively. They
let the Lakers dominate that not let but the Lakers
dominated that game. They dominated that game from start to finish,
and Kauai in the last five six minutes said you're
not scoring and it was a fun That was a
fun finish player props Athony Davis. What do you think
(33:50):
his points total is probably twenty nine and a half
because it's right around thirty and a half, oh a
little lower. I would say the overs that might be
the over right there. Well, that's kind of way I'm
in because Lebron James, what do you think his is
probably five and a half and six and a half
same point total? Interesting, the juice is on the bronze
under interesting. Hold on, I want to pull the I
want to pull up the box score from this game
(34:12):
again because I feel like it on January right now,
it's plus one hundred to take the over on le
Bron James point total twenty six and a half and
plus one hundred to take the over twenty six and
a half for Kawhi Leonard so Leonard went five or
seven from three eleven of nineteen from the fielding at
thirty five points. Lebron struggled to of twelve from the arc.
Davis struggled to one of six from the arc, eight
(34:34):
of seventeen from the field, which is very low for him.
He's usually a fifty biogo shooter. I'm not very low,
but you know, relatively low. Kyle Kuzma actually led the
team and points in that game. Yeah, and and don't
bet on that again. I'll tell you that. Uh, you know,
it might be a good pick in this game. What
is the mark uif Morris point total prop and three
point makes prop. That's one that I've been interested in lately.
(34:57):
I was on Avery Bradley on the Lakers earlier this season.
I think Morris is the new Avery Bradley, as in
that marquis for the Lakers. Yeah, for the for the Lakers.
MARKUEF Morris. He might not be listed. It's too bad.
He's a good he's a good bet because he and
he's If he's not on vanduel, then you know he's
(35:18):
not a good bet because he can't bet it. But
maybe it's on bet three six five. I'm gonna look
at the number on bet three six five because bet
three six fives legal in Jersey too. Marcus Morris two
and a half. He hasn't been scoring, and the handicap
on him has been what we talked about at MSG.
It's just the volumes not there for him. He was
getting volume shots with the Knicks and where for a
(35:39):
guy like him, he needs volume to stay in rhythm
and he hasn't gotten. I mean as like, no surprise.
When you're playing with Kwai Lein and Paul George, you're
not gonna get that much volume shot shooting. And he
I don't think he's adapted as well as a role player.
But the one thing that travels with him is he's
a good defender. And that's why this team has been
so much deeper defensively, because you can throw George Beverley,
Leonard Morris as these four ferocious guards, and then you
(36:03):
could still bring Lou Williams and Montrese Harrold and Reggie
Jackson off the bench. That's why the Clippers are gonna
win this game. They're deeper right now, they're a little healthier,
and they're playing better defensively. Is that where the Lakers
Achilles heel is Jared that like, they're not as deep
as other teams. I would say that Milwaukee and the
Clippers are deeper than the Lakers are. It's funny, and
we'll get to this on the other side, because this
is a very fascinating conversation. The Lakers have depth, but
(36:26):
the problem is Lebron plays so much that he's he
like is like he soaks up a lot of that depth,
which means his role players can't get in rhythm. Lebron
is playing too much this year I and I know
that sounds crazy. He's playing too much during the regular season.
I think it's gonna come back to buy him in
the postseason. I really do. I think he's not going
to be as fresh in May as he should be.
(36:46):
And that's why I think the Clippers are going to
the NBA Finals. I'll ask you why I think that
is coming up after the breaks, stay here on at
the window with Jared Smith and Arie l Ft and
we have a bunch of college whips. Deep track of
today as we're on Aeron till four o'clock. If you
can track of all of these live games and the
live line, stay tuned be of more coming up there?
(37:16):
Are you ready for the nation's first and only free,
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(37:39):
here to serve you the fanatic. This is sports Gride
Get off the grid. Brazilian pro gamer turn her influencer,
(38:03):
but sentenced to a sixteen years in prison on fraud charges.
She's gorgeous. I know that's probably why she was able
to get away with it. So that's not good that
she'll be in prison. Um So she's a presilion pro
East sports player turned influencer with tens of thousands of followers.
She was recently sentenced to a hundred sixteen years in prison. Um.
(38:25):
She was convicted on charges related to an online store
she helped run from seventeen. More than one hundred customers
said they never received orders or refunds from the shop.
Interesting In the meantime, she is no longer on social
I would hope not. Wow, that's not good. That wasn't good.
(38:47):
I just I saw this pop up on my Snapchat
and I said, Jared, this girl. So she's pretty and
she's an influencer, and why could she be going to
jail for a hundred sixteen years there? We figured it
out anyway, not that you care, because you're very zoned
into college basketball, but I've never been more locked into
college to anything on that story, I've never been more
(39:08):
locked in anything in my entire life. Maryland's up by
ten right now on Michigan. We kind of saw it
coming that Maryland would try to put on a show
at home Maryland. I mean, listen, we've seen this. Big
Ten teams have been dominant at home all season. If
you wanted to win some money throughout the course of
the college basketball season, you bet on Big Ten home
teams and you're probably gonna win majority of the time. However,
(39:29):
now we're going to see these teams go to neutral sites.
It's gonna be interesting. And Gabe Maarenzi, who we co
host The Morning After with, thinks that we're going to
see a steep decline of the Big tennis they go
to neutral sites. You agree, No, I don't agree with
many things Gabe says about college basketball these days. But um,
I don't know, Like, what does he mean by decline?
(39:50):
He doesn't think that these Big ten teams are going
to make it far in the tournament. You mean, so
not the Big ten turn Well, I mean someone has
to be someone has the to get to the end
of the ten. I think Gabe is wrong about that.
I I think the Big ten and he says that
all the time they're a bunch of losers because they
don't win the tournament. That's fine. I'm not saying they're
(40:11):
gonna win the tournament, but I would be willing to
stake my claim that you will see a Big ten
team in the final four. I agree with that. How many?
How many make it to the Elite eight? I think
to max the t I and I think Michigan states
that team. So let's go back and again this is
just speculative, but it's fun because we have four hours
(40:33):
to fill. We got to talk about something. So we're
gonna talk about Joe Lonardi's bracket because guess what, We've
got a bracket to look at and break down. Uh,
Michigan State right now continues to climb. I want to
say they were three in the last one in the
last Yeah, So there are three right now in the South.
And here's why that's a great fit for them. This
is why Michigan State, if they are in this bracket,
will go to the final four. But one in two
(40:55):
seeds in the South region are Baylor in Florida State.
I would say those are the weakest of the ones
in the twos. Maybe Throwken Zaga in there as well,
but a Baylor is really struggling right now, and Florida
State has not proven that they can win at the
big stage. They've proven that they have the talent to win,
but they haven't gone out over the hump. And Leonard
Hamilton's has been known for some chokey performances over the years.
(41:18):
So that's about as favorable as a bracket you can
ask for to put them in the South. Now. Granted
you have to play Baylor in Houston. That's a tough game,
but you can't ask for better matchup for Michigan State.
Michigan State has more talent than Baylor. They have more
talent than Florida State. They have they will the Michigan
State will have the best player every time. At this year,
we're so high on Michigan State year. You didn't pick
(41:43):
him last year and they went to the final What
happened the other two or three years? They got knocked
out early? Those other the last a couple of years
before back. Let's go back and look at Michigan State basketball.
I know for sure in two thousand and sixteen they
were knocked out in the first round, and I think
it was the year following to they just until last
year did not live up to the hype going into
the tournament because Tomasos their head coach, and they have talent,
(42:06):
of course, but they've been to the Sweet sixteen three
straight years, and then what else can you ask then
what they've been people when people over hype Michigan State,
they're putting Michigan State in their final four, and they
should be because they've been to the Final four as
recently as last year. And then what it went to
the Sweet six seen the year before, the year before
that they beat number one Kansas and went to the
(42:26):
Sweet six team. I mean, but their season ends in
the Sweet six team, That's fine, There's nothing wrong with that.
I'm just saying that a lot of people will have
Michigan stategan in the four twice in the last five seasons.
There aren't any other programs in college basketball that have
done that, so you would put Michigan State in again.
I'm putting Michigan State in the championship game against Kansas
(42:47):
if the bracket works out that way. Yes, I will
show you my bracket. I'm submitting one. I'm only submitting one.
I onways do one. I don't do the whole like
I know. Well, that's that's okay. As a true Penn
State fan, you should do a Penn State bracketly not
Penn States losing in the first round. I almost won
my bracket the year Syracuse went to the final four.
No one had Syracuse in as a Here's what I
(43:09):
will do. I do a lot of different pools. I'll
submit some weird ones in the free pools that I do. Yeah,
don't have one big money pool that I do every
year where I only submit one bracket. If you pay
for it, I'll submit a second. But I'll submit at
all Penn State bracket where they win the championship. Penn
(43:31):
States listen, Penn State fans. I'm sorry, but they're losing
in the first round. They're losing in the first round. Yeah,
Lamar Stevens is something's wrong, something's wrong with what have
you seen? I test buys on Penn State. That has
been the reason Steven he's been hurt. It's it's been
tough for Lamar. He's had a wrong He went five
(43:53):
for twenty against one of the worst defense in basketball
yesterday in college but in the Big Ten, the worst
defensive the Big Time. And I don't know what it is.
It could be fatigue. He's a senior. He's played in
a lot of games. But man, if you're ever gonna
if you're ever gonna blow your neck for a couple
of weeks, this is it, you know, like you're gonna
get a chance to do something. And I have some
(44:15):
friends that work up there, and I have some friends
that still live up there. If you were to compare
Penn State football playing in the Cotton Bowl this year
to Penn State basketball going to the n c Double
A Tournament, Penn State basketball going to the tournament is
like Marty Gras. It never happens. So it's not like
Marty Gar Marty grappens every year. It's like an eclipse.
(44:37):
Everybody goes out to watch it. Everyone will stop what
they're doing to go outside and watch. All the money
that Penn State had, it made no sense to me
that they couldn't be like a Michigan or a O'house state.
Why was Penn State not able to produce a basketball
product for so many years? But I'm just saying that
they didn't also invest a lot of good money into
(44:59):
I'm sure they didn't put as much money into the
basketball program as they obviously do football. I mean, come
on the money, Yes, penze the football school, but the
Bryce Jordan Center is one of the nicest, like biggest arenas.
It's like a top twenty venue for like capacity, like
it's a big and Penn State's has no shortage of
(45:20):
academic and athletic funding. Like, Yes, the pen made no
sense to me. Pen football program clearly is the bread water.
It should help them. We're going to the tournament, you
get it. Oh wow, Maryland, it should help them. Recruiting wise,
Jalen Smith is doing a little I like his glasses.
I like guys that I like big men that wear glasses.
To me, that's a yeah exactly. Oh yeah, I like
(45:46):
that he's got. He's got, like the cute team is got,
like the cute tip haircut. Like if if my ears
are ever dirty, I would just like, you know, nice shot.
Just can't root from Maryland. Isn't Mr Epstein watching this game?
They rejected me? Actually it's funny. I bet against Maryland
the last two games and he's been mad at me.
And I actually liked them today and I didn't bet them.
(46:06):
And they're going to cover. Yeah, it looks like they're
going to at least I always I usually fade Maryland.
But again, this is only the first half. Let's see
what Maryland does in the second half. And you know what,
that's a great point, and that's a great reason why
Michigan right now, let's see on Maryland. I mean what
Michigan is. What's eleven and a half? Half? Um? You know,
(46:26):
actually the under might be a nice little sneaky little
under it are, Yeah, because it was in the one
thirties pregame and it just ticked up late because of
I could see Maryland getting off to at eight and
a half and right now it's at one forty three.
And let's be real, this game is not going over time.
That's your always, your biggest fear with these games. And
(46:50):
there's two live opportunities that I see right now. I
see the under in the Maryland Michigan game. And Houston
is starting to become intriguing to me. Uh down five
in the first half to Memphis. Houston's really struggled down
the stretch. It's really funny. Right after I bet Houston
on my futures pick, they've been awful. They've lost three
out of the last This went down to Houston menace
(47:11):
one and a half on the live line. If you
can find Houston as a dog out there, that's a
good pick. Today they were I want to say they
were eight or nine point favorites today, but Houston, Houston
was a nine point favorite today. My dad just texted me,
let's go Maryland. I'm Mr Epstein. I'm guessing he's watching. Yeah,
(47:32):
oh wow, I can send some food to the studio.
You brought a sandwich, but I'm I didn't. I had
my breakfast and now now I'm staring at your diet. Snap.
I can't wait to see how Maryland comes out of
the second half. Dad, should we just fade Maryland? I'm
gonna put five bucks. I'm putting five dollars on Michigan
(47:53):
plus and if they win, if Maryland covers the eleven
and a half, Mr Epstein, Uh, you have to you
have to send me five bucks. If they don't, I
if Michigan covers, I'll I'll send you money. How's that
you can't talk back to me, but we're taking advantage
that you can't talk back. That's yeah, take advantage of
(48:14):
that because it won't happen once you get home in
about the five hours. Oh man, um okay, So again
we've talked a lot of college hoops. I want to
switch back over to the NBA just a little bit. Um. Well,
actually we have a minute left, so we'll switch over
to the NBA coming up after the break, because we're
going to break in about a minute or so. So
Jared says, right now he likes Houston on the live line. Yeah,
(48:36):
wait to see if it flips to a dog. Don't
jump on it now it's minus one and a half.
See if Memphis gets you know, if Memphis holds that
lead for a minute or two in the second half,
it should flipped to a dog. But the under you know,
all kidding aside with Mr Epstein, the under in that
Maryland Michigan game does look a little juicy. I can
definitely see Maryland pulling back the reins in the second
half and just clamping down defensively and trying to just
(48:57):
ice that game away. Because right now Marylyn sees the
finish line of the Big ten tournament there, twenty minutes
away from getting a top four seed, and I can
see them really throttling down and just you know, locking
down defensively. So Maryland has to win to lock down
the top four. No, but they I do think that
they would. They would behoove them to stay in the
top two or the top three. Actually, I don't know
(49:19):
how the standing shape the big tens of mess at
the top. I know Wisconsin is the one seed. That's
all I know. I know nothing else about the big flown.
My dad says he got a great chicken palmstrum Bowlie.
That's so mean. That is actually really mean, really mean,
really betting against Maryland. Bade Maryland, that's our gut feel well,
be back when Moore at the window coming up next.
(49:40):
Barry Ellen Dereed
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
listen live, all you have to do is download the
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if you want to catch this show on video, for
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening The Window.
(00:27):
I want all of you to get up out of
your chest, go to the window, open it, stick your
head out of here. Welcome into the Sunday edition of
At the Window. I'm Ariel lefteen. It actually joined by
(00:49):
Jared Smith here in studio at Video thirty down Manhattan.
We're so excited to be able to see each other
face to face. Yeah, but we have to look at
the cameras though, so you know it's cameras. You're not here,
we don't exist. It's still the same thing. So, Jared,
we had so many college basketball games yesterday that really
irritated every better I think in America at least me too,
(01:12):
and none. But I had a good late last night.
I didn't tell you about this. It was a surprise.
I hit Washington on the Money Line at Plus four sixty. Yeah,
that was a nice one. Was that a last minute thing?
It was not a last minute thing. I didn't tweet
it out until after the game because I'm every time.
I was really selfish every time I tweet out picks
before the game. They even losing the last couple of those.
(01:33):
So I took a different approach and I waited until
about five ten minutes into the game. It hit, and
it hit, and this Washington team. Listen. If I had
to choose a dog right now to purchase, I would
choose a husky. I love huskies. They're my favorite dog.
I know it's the eyes that means that you have
to be an NC State fan. No, they're wolf Pack, Yeah,
but they're husky. Yeah, that's true, But they're not the
(01:53):
Huskies Washington. I know they really have a picture with
the wolf Pack dog mascot, the Husky dog. It's actually
a husky. But that's that's a that's that's a sidebar.
The real story here is this Washington team. Preseason was
very good. They were picked a finish third in the
Pack twelve. They were a top fifteen team I believe
at one point, and they went on this crazy losing streak.
(02:15):
They lost nine straight games mid season, they were banged up,
they had guys on academic suspension. It was it was
a rough year for the Huskies. But now they're starting
to figure things out. They've won three of their last four.
They just swept Arizona and Arizona State on the road,
and they are seventy five to one to win the
Pac twelve tournament. The Pac twelves wide open. There's no
dominant team in the Pack twelve. Oregon is good. They're
(02:37):
not great, they're good. They're probably the favorite, but the
rest of the Pac twelves wide open. Washington has been
playing well. We hit him last night on the money
line plus four sixty. I rolled those profits into a
seventy five to one bet to win the PAC twelve Attorney.
That's my biggest conference tournament bet thus far. Oregon did
beat Stanford last seven, won the PAC twelve and deservedly. So. Yeah,
(03:01):
Peyton Pritchard's the best player on the team and he's
probably the best player in the conference. Oregon and that
Pack twelve. And I mean, so you're you're seeing that,
you know this Washington team, do you think that they
could be in the at least the finals even and
go up against Oregon or do you like someone else
in that pack? No, I want to see Actually hold on, well,
let's let's pull up the Pac twel bracket right now
since it is set and it's actually a fast Really,
(03:22):
if you would have asked me, are we what are
we open up opening up the show with today, I
would I think it was to one to open up
with when I hit a plus four sixty money line bet.
That's my biggest money line pick of the year. Uh,
it was nice. So right now, Washington is the twelve seed.
They face Arizona. They face Arizona again, that's to that. Yeah,
(03:44):
I don't like that. I already hate my beat. No,
but then they if they do win that game, then
they face USC and then they would have to face
Oregon in the semis. So the way they don't fall
out well, and I will say this though, I'll probably
come off of Arizona Washington a little bit in that
first round game. I'll I mean it was I'll be honest,
because it's all full honestly today it's it's a hundred
(04:07):
bet to win ten grand. It's it's it's a bit.
It's like or something. It's a big it's a big bet.
I actually got denied by fan like they wouldn't let
me put the bed in last night. They like kicked
it back. They only let me put like six dollars in,
and then I put it again in this morning and
it went in. Actually, why do you think that happened?
Because I'm too sharp, I'm moving the line. Yeah, definitely. Okay,
We're gonna beer off of the pack twelve a little
(04:29):
bit right now, and I think we have to go
with one of the bigger games of last night. I
guess we could say it was Utah State beating San
Diego State, the five seed, so UTAs day win six
in Utah State gets the Mountain West title and they
get an automatic bid into the n C Double A Tournament.
How shocked were you at that result, because, to be honest,
(04:51):
I wasn't. Yeah, I wasn't that shocked. I mean I've
been saying I think we actually said this last weekend,
last Sunday, the major favorites, the big favorites to win
these conference tournaments. There's no value there. You're not getting
any bang for your back. I think San Diego State
was minus three fifty to win this tournament. Utah State
was plus three fifty in the championship game. San Diego
State was like minus two twenty minus two thirty. Why
(05:13):
would you lay three fifty to win three games when
you can just lay to twenty thirty to win one game.
Like it just it just doesn't make sense. So so
that's why anyone who was was putting money on them
to win the Mountain West. That was a mistake. Now
if you bet them last night. I actually did like
them last night, San Diego State. I thought they would
win and cover, and they looked really good early. I
(05:33):
think they were up eleven at one point in the
first half, and you know, you feel good for that
Greg Meryll Kid or Sam Merro. I forget his first name,
sanm Merrow, whoever. The I know his last name is
Meryl because it was it makes sense because that's where
I used to work at, so I I associated with
those two names, Merrill Lynch, so I know his last
name is Meryl. He had a big shot. Good for him.
Utah State deserves to be in the tournament. Utah State
(05:55):
covers as five point dogs and it was plus one
ninety on the money line. Ute's day was on a roll.
How are do you see them really going in this tournament? Yeah,
I mean I think yes, matchup dependent and actually I
haven't checked. I haven't checked. Um, I don't know if
Leonardi updated his bracketology from yesterday. He did, actually, so
(06:17):
let's see who we are as Utah State. Um, he
has them right now in the six eleven game against Michigan.
I mean, you know that, and I'll say this, you know,
but here here's the thing. Six the six eleven is
the new five twelve because the eleven seeds now are
almost just as good as the sixes, because the sixes
are usually average mid majors, and the elevens for the
(06:40):
most part are I mean average majors high majors, and
the elevens and twelves for the most part are the
top mid majors. So the top mid major programs and
the average major programs. There's the gap between those programs
have been lessening. I've seen those teams favored, the eleven
seeds favored in the six Michigan, Probably not Michigan. Probably
(07:00):
not Michigan. Yeah exactly. But but I'll say this, Utah
State is a top ten team in height. They're not
gonna get out muscled by Michigan. And they've got this
this kid talking me about height. How much can you
compare them to the Texas Tech team of what last
year or two years ago? The beat UNC. I don't
think Utah States as talented as that team. But they've
got this big man, this quate, a kid who dominated
(07:22):
San Diego State yesterday. And San Diego State's got this
really good big man UH named Yanni Wetzel who had
dominated the tournament up to that point and he got
punched around a little bit yesterday. I think Utah State's
alive dog. I I think I think there's two teams
uh in that conference that can win a game or two.
I think San Diego State can win three or four
and get to the final four. Probably not, but they
(07:43):
have the talent to Utah State can go to Sweet
sixteen if they have the right matchups. They they have
some legitimate they have some legit size, and they've got
a legit score. And now they're hot and they're riding
that wave and we'll see the problem is they get
a week off, they don't play next week. That's being
momentum potentially, especially because these conference tournaments are starting up
for all the exactly, so everyone else gets to play.
(08:05):
But I'll say this though about that. What that means
is everyone else will play, and there will be other
great performances between now and then, and people will forget
a little bit about Utah State, so the the their
lines will not be bet that strongly, probably in the
n Double A Tournament, because there's such a recency bias
with this stuff, and there's such a public swing of
(08:25):
funds that come into the gambling market week of the
n C Double A Tournament them money square money, and
no one's gonna be betting on Utah State that week
because no one's watched them the previous week. So keep
that in mind whenever these like, if it's Utah State
against Michigan, it's gonna be like the action is gonna
be on Michigan, so that that's where you can find
value and a dog. But on the flip side, didn't
(08:47):
make you concerned at all for San Diego State, Yes, absolutely, yes,
san Diego State is kind of limped to the finish line.
We could say the same thing about our Nurney Lions.
But it's it's been a it's been an interesting They looked.
I watched every one of San Diego States games this week.
There was a part in each game first half against
(09:07):
Air Force, first twenty five minutes against Boise State until
like the last like ten when they really turned it on.
And not necessarily yesterday, but there were pockets where they
just kind of looked like they were coasting. And I
understand why in the back of these kids minds, they're
saying that they know they're probably going to be a
number one seed, are going to be a one seed
(09:29):
still and and and to to to just confirm that,
actually Lenardi switched it today. Wow, Yes, San Diego State
is the two in the West. That actually and and
and the funny thing about that is he has Dating
is the one seed in the East. Man Dating in
Kentucky would be a great Elite eight matchup at the Garden. Um.
(09:49):
That's what he has right now. One two in that region.
Dating and Kentucky in the East. Um, that would be awesome. Um.
I mean because the regional rivals to they battle for
a lot of Like tap tappened was Tappened was recruited
a couple of those other SEC schools. He just decided
not to go um because he's from Ohio. UM, so
San Diego State in the West makes sense though Ario
they're in Sacramento, and then they play in l A
(10:12):
against Gonzaga. That's a good like that. I would prefer
that to having to play to be in the one
and play Kentucky in the East at the Garden. So
if you're San Diego State and you're in the Elite eight,
who would you rather play Gonzaga in Los Angeles miles
from home or Kentucky at MSG. I mean, that's a
no brainer. Who would you rather play there? Well, it's
(10:33):
about the rest of the seeding too, and who else
the matchups would be because that's all the way in
the Elite eight, So who else in San Diego State
have to then play as a two? See if if
these and again, ironically enough, this will be a funny one. Um.
To preface this, this is what we're seeing in the bracketology,
and Leonardi is really good at this. I think he's
as good as anyone at this. But it's all hypothetical.
(10:53):
So he has San Diego State in the seven ten matchup,
so the two fifteen, you assuming they win that game
in the seven ten match up, it's Colorado East Tennessee State,
which would be an interesting matchup. But let's say they
get to the sweet sixteen. So the three six is
Seaton Hall and Penn State. Oh, I like this matchup
he has in Albany right now, Seaton Hall and Hofstra
(11:15):
that one. I like that one a lot. And he
has Penn State in the six eleven matchup against the
winner of NC State in Texas. In the playing game
in Albany. We should go. If it's in Albany, I
would be down only like an hour and a half
north here. It's a fun little rod. It's not a
bad rod. I mean hopping the car go up. Speaking
of Seton Hall, because we saw, yeah, Penn State and
Seaton haller on a downward sirral a little bit. I
(11:38):
mean Penn State. Definitely Hall not closing out this season strong,
and it's making me nervous for Seton Hall. We'll talk
about it more on the other side, how Seton Hall's
end of the regular season could potentially hurt them down
the line. Stay here on at the window, Ariel and
Jared Smith keeven you updated for the next four hours.
(12:10):
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(12:53):
Bart and I already arguing over the season tournament. I
think they did. Okay, So we're having this argument over
North Carolina because UNC did they lose? Yeah? Okay, So
un C and Duke played last night and I was
interesting in Greenboro, different different venue. I was irritated because
(13:14):
I took UNC plast today a half because U n C,
no matter how bad they've been, has not lost by
double digits. And I can't even tell you how long
I'm meant to look this up, and I completely forgot
to look up how long ago it was. But these
games are always by very close margins. And this Duke
UNC game the first time went to overtime and UNC
lost by two. I wasn't thinking UNC would lose by
(13:35):
double digits last night. And now Jared is telling me
that there's value on UNC at one to win the
a CC tournament right when the So I'm making two
bets right now. Actually no, I'm not going to make
the second bet. The second bet we're making together. The
first bet that I'm making right now is Virginia at
seven one win the a c C title. I love
their draw, So here's like that more than UNC. Yes,
(13:58):
and that's why I'm actually putting my hard earned money
on this bed. So Virginia seven and want to win
the a SEC title. They're the two seeds. They don't
have to play to the quarters. They'll face the winner
of Notre Dame Boston College, which I think is a
really good matchup for them, and then they'll face probably
Louisville or North Carolina in the semifinals. And they just
beat Louisville last week or yesterday, So I don't the
(14:20):
thing for you in the finals, you're making money. What
scares me with u NC is that they do have
to play that extra day. They have to play on Tuesday,
two extra days, well, two extra days, and what they're
used to, they usually don't start playing until Thursday. They
usually get that double day by, but those bottom four
teams or bottom six teams play on Tuesday, and then
the majority of the teams will start playing Wednesday. But
(14:43):
the top two seeds, I think, play Thursday. Those are
their first games, the top two, top four. No, it's four,
it's a double It's exactly like the Big Ten with
four teen teams. There's a double by. So the top
four teams get the double by and they are into
the quarters. Duke is the four, Louisville the three, Virginia
the two, and Florida State did win it last night.
Virginia's got a really nice draw. Virginia's got a nice draw.
(15:06):
They don't have to face Duke again until the final.
Louisville they just beat and they really match up well
against them defensively. And Notre Dame in Boston College is
a terrible matchup for Virginia. Virginia is gonna slow both
of those teams down. Neither of those teams haven't. Yeah,
so neither of those teams are really good offensive teams.
Virginia is gonna eat that game up. Virginia's playing their
(15:27):
best basketball the season right now. The defending national champs.
They have something to prove. I can't believe I'm saying this.
Virginia won the a CEC Tournament a couple of years ago,
two years ago. Yes, Virginia as the defending national champs
have something to prove, A chip on their shoulder in
the a c C Championship. I never thought I would
say that, but because of the season they've had, they have,
(15:49):
they have a chip on their shoulder in this tournament.
And Florida State, I don't fully trust them to win
big time games against good defenses, but I like Florida
State a lot. I think Florida State in Virginia, i'd
be if that's not the a c C Championship like Virginia. Honestly,
it's so Virginia for them to win the a SEC
tournament and then get knocked out in like the second
round of that. I don't think they're gonna win the
national title again this year, but I get repeating I
(16:11):
think they have something to prove. I think people are
still doubting them, and at seven to one to only
have to win two games to get into the finals.
One of those games is gonna be against either Notre
Dame or Boston College. The other one is going to
be against a team they just beat. I think it's
a really really smart pick for value. If you get
me a seven to one team into the championship game,
(16:33):
I'm gonna make money over under. How many times Syracuse
said coach Jim Beaheim complains about playing in Greensboro. You
would know better than me. You've actually covered that tournament.
I would say two and a half. He'll he'll complain
at the pregame press conference, like the preview, like they do,
like a media availability, like the like tomorrow. Probably he'll
(16:54):
complain then and then if they lose again, So one
and a half over, because they're gonna lose at some
point if they If they win, he won't complain. So
after wins he'll be good. He'll complain pre pre tournament
and then after they lose. So twice. He hates playing
in Greensboro. He loved when they came to Brooklyn next year. Yeah,
(17:18):
two years, two, it's some. It's sometime soon, all right.
We have some games going on right now, though, Jared So,
Michigan and Maryland are playing great game. Maryland's up eight
seven at the moment, Maryland four and a half right
now on the live line. Um, they're laying the points
and then the total one seven and a half. Your
thoughts on this game? Yeah, I'm watching right now. You
(17:39):
know it looks like a kind of a sleepy start.
These Big Ten games. First first half unders are good
bets when you when you got the noon games. Keep
keep that in my next week when they start facing
these tournament games and they're playing at noon in Indianapolis
and it's eleven am. Uh So you know it looks
like Maryland's defense is coming to play today. I was
(18:00):
surprise the line was as high as it was. To
be perfectly, Frank, I missed out on Boston. You that
was the pick I was looking at earlier in the
Northeast Conference. Boston University is having a really good start
against Buck Now, I mean in the Patriot League. Excuse me, um,
but I think Maryland has a little something to prove
in this game. I I think they're better than well
because they've they've lost their last two. Right, I'm just saying, like, why,
(18:22):
like in a game like this where I'd say everything
is pretty much set in stone, for it's actually weird.
In the Big Ten, there's like you there's a little
bit like you really think that they're you think that
they're really over exerting themselves. So yeah, what's Senior Day
for Maryland? So yeah, you know, I mean, I think
this is a weird day for the regular season. This
weekend is weird. You know it is. I agree. How
(18:42):
do you how do you handicap that you can't? You
can hope that you're on the right side of it,
but mindsets really tough. Like we saw Penn State come
out on Senior Night and torch Michigan State in the
first half and then just totally sleepwalked through the second
half and get killed. So it's and some teams are
the opposite where they where they struggle early on Senior
Night because the emotions of the day kind of captured
(19:04):
that early stage, and then they settle in and then
they get better as the game goes on. Very hard
to handicap one or the other. I'm just I'm upset
because I was literally about to text my buddy to
put money on Boston. You minus six and a half
and they're up like nineteen eight in the first eight
minutes of the game. You can still get Boston on
live line eleven and a half though, the other interesting
game today. So Hofstra is the Darling and the Colonial
(19:26):
this year, and Hofstra is like the New York Jets
of the Colonial. Was that was it supposed to be
what you see in Leonardi? Was it Hofstra? You said
against against which would be a fun matchup? Um. I
also saw a Hofstra against Villanova in a bracket earlier
this week, which is the Jay Wright game because he
used to coach at Hofstra. Um. So Hofstra, I've had
(19:48):
the you know, fortunate opportunity to cover the pride many
times over the last few years. This is a program,
no pun intend It has a lot of pride um.
They they continuous lead, do well in the regular season,
and continuously fail in the postseason. Last year they lost.
I think they've lost in the CIA Championship game two
years in a row. Um. I know they lost in
(20:09):
the championship game last year went to overtime. I remember
watching it vividly, like saying, oh my goodness, Hofster is
finally going to get into the tournament. Uh, and they
just can't do it year after year. Hold on, I
want to I want to look this up because I
want to give exact like they they've had like a
jets in history in the CIA tournament, Like it's been
really bad. I need them there we go. So the
(20:31):
Colonial is a really tough league, Like it is a
very tough league. And the prior or good team they
won the tournament or they won the regular season. Last
year number one seed lost in the championship game. In
two thousand eighteen, they were the number three seed lost
(20:51):
in the Semis two thousands. I mean, it's just every year,
it's like just bad beat after bad beat. Last year
was really bad because they were the number one seed.
They now they've in the one eight matchup today and
against dreg souls. They should win this game. But that
don't stop believing segments, you don't stop believing you. I
want hot to win so bad I would I wanted
like this team. Like you know, when you cover programs,
(21:11):
you know, and you covered ECU especially, you get attached
to the smaller programs, like you're you're very attached to
the kids, like you're very attached to the to the
players and the s I D s and all that stuff.
Hofstra like deserves to go to the tournament. They just
deserve it. I hope this is the year. Yes, speaking
of East Carolina does play today, but there is no
shot of East Carolina. No, honestly, like it was actually
(21:35):
more of the Triangle schools. Like when people say to me,
did you like UNC, do Guarantee State? I said, I
actually like all three. It was really fun the a
CC tournament what um yeah, they just like basketball wise,
just weren't you weren't there for the Chris Paul days, No,
I was not. No basketball wake was not really relevant.
(21:56):
They would pull up some they pull some upsets here
and there, but ultimately in the a SEC tournament, it
was really fun to cover them. And um ka bowman
to Bowman was from eastern North Carolina, was not recruited
by any of those North Carolina that name a lot
working with you the last few month, huh. But now
he he sprained his ankle, but he is up at
the Warriors, right, I know, and now he's going he's
(22:16):
hanging out with stuff that must be cool. See, Like
to me, that's like obviously making like these guys. And
that's why you get attached to the smaller schools because
then you see some people make it and it's really
it's really fun and that's why I think, and we
made this point on the Morning After earlier this week,
that it's so important to these players at these smaller
programs in these UM Conference tournaments right now, who like
(22:38):
at a Utah State are now going to get a
chance on the big stage. And those are those storylines
to watch someone at Utah State. How can they maybe
make a name for themselves in the tournament? Maybe someone
and like you can get yesterday and knock one of
those shots down to win, yeah, and you'll get recognized.
You might not make it, but someone might look at
you and give you a shot and let you go
on their practice squad, sign you to the G League.
(22:58):
It's it's an opportunity. Just like who was the the
nun for Loyal Chicago. What was her name? Jean? Sister Jeans?
Mr Jean lost. I know, but they went to the
final four. I meant like they lost yesterday. Oh yeah,
they did lose yesterday. They are not yes. Unfortunately. The
funny thing is on social media everyone was saying, oh
(23:20):
so and so, like Sister Jean lost. They didn't say
that like the school lost the ramblers everyone And here's
and it's actually funny. This is a great gambling nugget.
So this is a good one. This is called the
post tournament hangover team. I saw so much love for
(23:41):
Loyal Chicago and UNBC and these teams on Twitter in
their tournaments for no reason other than people know who
they are. Those are those teams are overvalued in the
market like they are like because they, unlike other mid majors,
are getting a lot of public love. Loyal is the
big one for me because they used to have the
more cognizable pop culture figure in Sister Gene, where people
(24:03):
will literally just bet Loyola for Sister Gene without handicapping
the game at all, like, oh, they won that tournament
like that. I mean, they got so far in the tournament,
and so if they were in the tournament this year,
I would be fading again and on on the lines
because there would be value on names. So just keep
that in mind when you're really is so different than pros.
I mean, these teams are different, and usually teams like
those small programs have senior leadership, which means thereby by
(24:26):
a gun anyway, who are going to back from More
about the games going on right now, NB A huge
matchup coming up at three thirties stay here on the
sport spread and what show are we on at this point?
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(24:48):
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(25:31):
I'm back to at the window with CHARTSTI team. We
have a few basketball games going on in college groups
right now. Yeah, Memphis facing off with Houston. Houston up
thirteen to seven and Houston laying ten and a half points.
It's the first half, buck now, busting you, busting you up.
They're laying nine and a half. And Jared really like
buston you today. I did. And the lines getting back
(25:52):
to a point where I might get him at six
and a half. Maybe we'll get him at lesson six
and a half. I hope up Nell goes on a
little first half. Ron, it's a little late. It's already
you know, more than halfway through the first half, so
I think I missed my boat. I did. I did.
Like Boston, you uh, they had sweat Buckneil twice this year.
They've beat him by twenty on the road earlier this year,
which was a really nice win. Up eleven early. Drexland
(26:14):
Hofstra tied early. Maryland looks really good defensively, they look
really good today. I think they're gonna Michigan's gonna have
a tough time scoring on this big Jalen Smith, Who's
I expected Maryland to put together a good performance today.
I unlike Penn State yesterday we were on the road.
Penn State's been struggling on the road Northwestern, I know
(26:35):
against one of the worst bad loss college basket downward
spiral for Penn State for sure, But we've talked a
lot of college It was the first two segments. I
want to touch on the NBA a bit because there's
a lot going on in the NBA. So yesterday underdogs
were if I haven't won against the spread with four upsets,
a lot of upsets, But today is a huge is
a huge game for the Lakers and the Clippers. At
(26:58):
three thirty, you want to hear the cre easiest stat
have heard all season. The Lakers are seven and one
straight up this year as an underdog. Yeah, that's to me.
That's and they're beating the spread in those games by
an average of thirteen points. Seven points, which means they
(27:18):
are blowing teams out as an underdog. I liked it.
And the Clippers are on fire like they're the Clippers
are playing their best basketball this season. So I look
at this game in two ways. Lakers is an underdodog
is a is a juicy, juicy uh dog. They are
(27:41):
the best underdog in the league, hands down. But I
think the books are really trying to to tell you
something with this line. I don't think this line is
taking into account home court advantage, because let's be frank,
there's no home court advantage at Staple Center for either
of these two teams. If anything, the Lakers have it
at all times regardless of who the home team is,
So unlike the Lakers going to Denver or going to Houston,
(28:06):
there is no home court edge baked into the line,
at least, I don't think. I think the books are
very blatantly telling you that the Clippers are the better
team right now. Well, I think this has a lot
to do also with Milwaukee and l a playing on Friday.
I think that I think that with you mean like
(28:26):
a rest factor after because not even so much rest factor.
It's just like coming off of a game to potential
NBA Finals. And I mean like this is that was
potentially the NBA Finals right there, and the only other
team that potentially could be on the West is the Clippers.
And now the Lakers have to go essentially not back
(28:47):
to back, but you know within three days of each other,
two days of each other, they have to go and
play the two best teams in the NBA. I think
it's a tough task to ask of a team, even
the best team right now in the NBA, which is
of Los Angeles Lakers. I like your handicap, and and
what we just did is we just completed the circle.
Me doing the first part, you're doing the second part.
(29:08):
So I was I'm telling you that the line to
me is very telling here because I'm surprised the Clippers
are laying two and a half, and you brought it
home by saying, well, that's because they're coming off of
their their most physical game of the year, which is
a very good point. These are there. This is their
most physical weekend of the year. Yes, it this is
to me. If the Lakers win this game today, they
(29:32):
can basically close up shop and say, all right, we
showed you guys who the best team in the end
in the West is, and you might start to see
the minutes load. You know, it's crazy to think because
it's been such a the sports gambling calendar rest for
no one area. It feels like yesterday we were crowning
a super Bowl champion Selection Sundays in a week. The
(29:52):
NBA season is a month away from being over. Like
like the season is for the most part, we know
what these teams all. There's fifteen twenty games left max.
For these teams. Not much is going to change. There's
a couple of teams that could play their way into
better positioning. But if the Lakers win this game today,
it's a presumptive positive that they're the number one seed.
(30:13):
I mean, there's almost nothing that can happen to the contrary.
It would almost be a statistical improbability for for them
to not be the one seed if they win today.
If they lose today, I want to say they have
a three and one to say that the Lakers go
one and one on the weekend. That's what my hunch
ones to say, the same way that my hunch said,
I can't see the Lakers going down to nothing in
(30:34):
the series with the Bucks for the season, because even
though I liked Milwaukee as a dog, I wanted to
take the points with Milwaukee on Friday, but I didn't
because they said, can you see in the stats that
the Lakers go down to nothing to the Bucks on
the season. No, and I couldn't. I thought the Lakers
And it sounds like such a weird handicap because there's
no stats. You're not giving information. It's a guts dealing.
(30:56):
But that's my gut feeling was I couldn't see the
Los Angeles Lakers being oh and two against the Milwaukee
Bucks on the season. I've been pushing you to put
more of that kind of you know, analysis into your
handicapping instead of just line movements and trends. I think
that's a I think that's an important part of what
we see on a daily basis. Yeah, and and also
(31:18):
trust what the numbers say. You know the numbers are
telling you something, Sometimes you trust them. Sometimes it's okay
to fade them. Like in this game, I'm picking the Clippers,
even though the Lakers are seven and one straight up
as an underdog this year, like the numbers say the
Lakers are the best underdog in the league. You're getting points,
that's the value. That's where you should side. But I
(31:39):
am saying the line is telling you in this spot
to take the Clippers. So trust that. Sometimes it's okay
to fade it. Sometimes it's okay to trust it. The
more you do this, and you've been doing this a
lot over the last few months, every day you do
it and you see lines, and Vegas has a weird way,
and the odds makers have a weird way of sometimes
giving you the ants that they're giving you. The answer
(32:00):
is to the questions before they give you the test
and Vegas to meet today is saying the Clippers are
the better team. Trust your gut. Right now, they're playing better.
They're they're the better team right now. Today might change.
I'm gonna make you guess the props. Have you looked
at them, because I know that they come out kind
of late. I had. I looked at Kauai's props because
(32:23):
I did. I picked that for the for the writing
segments that I do. So I picked Kai's three point
over two and a half. I'm getna. Well, here's the thing.
Those are easy to get because they are his averages.
It's twenty five and a half or twenty six and
a half. Okay, where's the juice? Probably on the under
most likely because the game's shading under and it's a
low it's a low point total, all right, twenty six
(32:44):
and a half. It's plus one to take the over. Yeah,
I would say, I would say stay away from that.
I like his three point props for some reason, he
doesn't like driving against against Davis and Lebron, he shot
a ton of threes. And actually it's funny because the
replay of the Christmas Day game is on right now
on the screen. Um, he went, I want to say
he went five for seven in that game against the
(33:06):
Lakers earlier this season from three in the Christmas Day games,
Paul George in that game. Everyone played in that game.
I was I was looking at the box score that
game last night, the box score that game last night,
the Laker. I can't believe the Lakers lost that game. Um,
they were up one, they were up by seven with
six minutes left and they scored five points over those
(33:28):
final six minutes. That to me shows you everything you
need to know about who the Clippers are defensively. They
let the Lakers dominate that not let but the Lakers
dominated that game. They dominated that game from start to finish,
and Kauai in the last five six minutes said you're
not scoring and it was a fun That was a
fun finish player props Athony Davis. What do you think
(33:50):
his points total is probably twenty nine and a half
because it's right around thirty and a half, oh a
little lower. I would say the overs that might be
the over right there. Well, that's kind of way I'm
in because Lebron James, what do you think his is
probably five and a half and six and a half
same point total? Interesting, the juice is on the bronze
under interesting. Hold on, I want to pull the I
want to pull up the box score from this game
(34:12):
again because I feel like it on January right now,
it's plus one hundred to take the over on le
Bron James point total twenty six and a half and
plus one hundred to take the over twenty six and
a half for Kawhi Leonard so Leonard went five or
seven from three eleven of nineteen from the fielding at
thirty five points. Lebron struggled to of twelve from the arc.
Davis struggled to one of six from the arc, eight
(34:34):
of seventeen from the field, which is very low for him.
He's usually a fifty biogo shooter. I'm not very low,
but you know, relatively low. Kyle Kuzma actually led the
team and points in that game. Yeah, and and don't
bet on that again. I'll tell you that. Uh, you know,
it might be a good pick in this game. What
is the mark uif Morris point total prop and three
point makes prop. That's one that I've been interested in lately.
(34:57):
I was on Avery Bradley on the Lakers earlier this season.
I think Morris is the new Avery Bradley, as in
that marquis for the Lakers. Yeah, for the for the Lakers.
MARKUEF Morris. He might not be listed. It's too bad.
He's a good he's a good bet because he and
he's If he's not on vanduel, then you know he's
(35:18):
not a good bet because he can't bet it. But
maybe it's on bet three six five. I'm gonna look
at the number on bet three six five because bet
three six fives legal in Jersey too. Marcus Morris two
and a half. He hasn't been scoring, and the handicap
on him has been what we talked about at MSG.
It's just the volumes not there for him. He was
getting volume shots with the Knicks and where for a
(35:39):
guy like him, he needs volume to stay in rhythm
and he hasn't gotten. I mean as like, no surprise.
When you're playing with Kwai Lein and Paul George, you're
not gonna get that much volume shot shooting. And he
I don't think he's adapted as well as a role player.
But the one thing that travels with him is he's
a good defender. And that's why this team has been
so much deeper defensively, because you can throw George Beverley,
Leonard Morris as these four ferocious guards, and then you
(36:03):
could still bring Lou Williams and Montrese Harrold and Reggie
Jackson off the bench. That's why the Clippers are gonna
win this game. They're deeper right now, they're a little healthier,
and they're playing better defensively. Is that where the Lakers
Achilles heel is Jared that like, they're not as deep
as other teams. I would say that Milwaukee and the
Clippers are deeper than the Lakers are. It's funny, and
we'll get to this on the other side, because this
is a very fascinating conversation. The Lakers have depth, but
(36:26):
the problem is Lebron plays so much that he's he
like is like he soaks up a lot of that depth,
which means his role players can't get in rhythm. Lebron
is playing too much this year I and I know
that sounds crazy. He's playing too much during the regular season.
I think it's gonna come back to buy him in
the postseason. I really do. I think he's not going
to be as fresh in May as he should be.
(36:46):
And that's why I think the Clippers are going to
the NBA Finals. I'll ask you why I think that
is coming up after the breaks, stay here on at
the window with Jared Smith and Arie l Ft and
we have a bunch of college whips. Deep track of
today as we're on Aeron till four o'clock. If you
can track of all of these live games and the
live line, stay tuned be of more coming up there?
(37:16):
Are you ready for the nation's first and only free,
twenty four hour network dedicated to you the betting and
fantasy sports enthusiast. Sports Grade will provide you with a
real time content, statistics and gaming intelligence unlike anything you've
ever seen before. Located both in the heart of New
York City and inside the FanDuel Sports book at the
meadow Lands Sports Grade, He's live eighteen hours a day
(37:39):
here to serve you the fanatic. This is sports Gride
Get off the grid. Brazilian pro gamer turn her influencer,
(38:03):
but sentenced to a sixteen years in prison on fraud charges.
She's gorgeous. I know that's probably why she was able
to get away with it. So that's not good that
she'll be in prison. Um So she's a presilion pro
East sports player turned influencer with tens of thousands of followers.
She was recently sentenced to a hundred sixteen years in prison. Um.
(38:25):
She was convicted on charges related to an online store
she helped run from seventeen. More than one hundred customers
said they never received orders or refunds from the shop.
Interesting In the meantime, she is no longer on social
I would hope not. Wow, that's not good. That wasn't good.
(38:47):
I just I saw this pop up on my Snapchat
and I said, Jared, this girl. So she's pretty and
she's an influencer, and why could she be going to
jail for a hundred sixteen years there? We figured it
out anyway, not that you care, because you're very zoned
into college basketball, but I've never been more locked into
college to anything on that story, I've never been more
(39:08):
locked in anything in my entire life. Maryland's up by
ten right now on Michigan. We kind of saw it
coming that Maryland would try to put on a show
at home Maryland. I mean, listen, we've seen this. Big
Ten teams have been dominant at home all season. If
you wanted to win some money throughout the course of
the college basketball season, you bet on Big Ten home
teams and you're probably gonna win majority of the time. However,
(39:29):
now we're going to see these teams go to neutral sites.
It's gonna be interesting. And Gabe Maarenzi, who we co
host The Morning After with, thinks that we're going to
see a steep decline of the Big tennis they go
to neutral sites. You agree, No, I don't agree with
many things Gabe says about college basketball these days. But um,
I don't know, Like, what does he mean by decline?
(39:50):
He doesn't think that these Big ten teams are going
to make it far in the tournament. You mean, so
not the Big ten turn Well, I mean someone has
to be someone has the to get to the end
of the ten. I think Gabe is wrong about that.
I I think the Big ten and he says that
all the time they're a bunch of losers because they
don't win the tournament. That's fine. I'm not saying they're
(40:11):
gonna win the tournament, but I would be willing to
stake my claim that you will see a Big ten
team in the final four. I agree with that. How many?
How many make it to the Elite eight? I think
to max the t I and I think Michigan states
that team. So let's go back and again this is
just speculative, but it's fun because we have four hours
(40:33):
to fill. We got to talk about something. So we're
gonna talk about Joe Lonardi's bracket because guess what, We've
got a bracket to look at and break down. Uh,
Michigan State right now continues to climb. I want to
say they were three in the last one in the
last Yeah, So there are three right now in the South.
And here's why that's a great fit for them. This
is why Michigan State, if they are in this bracket,
will go to the final four. But one in two
(40:55):
seeds in the South region are Baylor in Florida State.
I would say those are the weakest of the ones
in the twos. Maybe Throwken Zaga in there as well,
but a Baylor is really struggling right now, and Florida
State has not proven that they can win at the
big stage. They've proven that they have the talent to win,
but they haven't gone out over the hump. And Leonard
Hamilton's has been known for some chokey performances over the years.
(41:18):
So that's about as favorable as a bracket you can
ask for to put them in the South. Now. Granted
you have to play Baylor in Houston. That's a tough game,
but you can't ask for better matchup for Michigan State.
Michigan State has more talent than Baylor. They have more
talent than Florida State. They have they will the Michigan
State will have the best player every time. At this year,
we're so high on Michigan State year. You didn't pick
(41:43):
him last year and they went to the final What
happened the other two or three years? They got knocked
out early? Those other the last a couple of years
before back. Let's go back and look at Michigan State basketball.
I know for sure in two thousand and sixteen they
were knocked out in the first round, and I think
it was the year following to they just until last
year did not live up to the hype going into
the tournament because Tomasos their head coach, and they have talent,
(42:06):
of course, but they've been to the Sweet sixteen three
straight years, and then what else can you ask then
what they've been people when people over hype Michigan State,
they're putting Michigan State in their final four, and they
should be because they've been to the Final four as
recently as last year. And then what it went to
the Sweet six seen the year before, the year before
that they beat number one Kansas and went to the
(42:26):
Sweet six team. I mean, but their season ends in
the Sweet six team, That's fine, There's nothing wrong with that.
I'm just saying that a lot of people will have
Michigan stategan in the four twice in the last five seasons.
There aren't any other programs in college basketball that have
done that, so you would put Michigan State in again.
I'm putting Michigan State in the championship game against Kansas
(42:47):
if the bracket works out that way. Yes, I will
show you my bracket. I'm submitting one. I'm only submitting one.
I onways do one. I don't do the whole like
I know. Well, that's that's okay. As a true Penn
State fan, you should do a Penn State bracketly not
Penn States losing in the first round. I almost won
my bracket the year Syracuse went to the final four.
No one had Syracuse in as a Here's what I
(43:09):
will do. I do a lot of different pools. I'll
submit some weird ones in the free pools that I do. Yeah,
don't have one big money pool that I do every
year where I only submit one bracket. If you pay
for it, I'll submit a second. But I'll submit at
all Penn State bracket where they win the championship. Penn
(43:31):
States listen, Penn State fans. I'm sorry, but they're losing
in the first round. They're losing in the first round. Yeah,
Lamar Stevens is something's wrong, something's wrong with what have
you seen? I test buys on Penn State. That has
been the reason Steven he's been hurt. It's it's been
tough for Lamar. He's had a wrong He went five
(43:53):
for twenty against one of the worst defense in basketball
yesterday in college but in the Big Ten, the worst
defensive the Big Time. And I don't know what it is.
It could be fatigue. He's a senior. He's played in
a lot of games. But man, if you're ever gonna
if you're ever gonna blow your neck for a couple
of weeks, this is it, you know, like you're gonna
get a chance to do something. And I have some
(44:15):
friends that work up there, and I have some friends
that still live up there. If you were to compare
Penn State football playing in the Cotton Bowl this year
to Penn State basketball going to the n c Double
A Tournament, Penn State basketball going to the tournament is
like Marty Gras. It never happens. So it's not like
Marty Gar Marty grappens every year. It's like an eclipse.
(44:37):
Everybody goes out to watch it. Everyone will stop what
they're doing to go outside and watch. All the money
that Penn State had, it made no sense to me
that they couldn't be like a Michigan or a O'house state.
Why was Penn State not able to produce a basketball
product for so many years? But I'm just saying that
they didn't also invest a lot of good money into
(44:59):
I'm sure they didn't put as much money into the
basketball program as they obviously do football. I mean, come
on the money, Yes, penze the football school, but the
Bryce Jordan Center is one of the nicest, like biggest arenas.
It's like a top twenty venue for like capacity, like
it's a big and Penn State's has no shortage of
(45:20):
academic and athletic funding. Like, Yes, the pen made no
sense to me. Pen football program clearly is the bread water.
It should help them. We're going to the tournament, you
get it. Oh wow, Maryland, it should help them. Recruiting wise,
Jalen Smith is doing a little I like his glasses.
I like guys that I like big men that wear glasses.
To me, that's a yeah exactly. Oh yeah, I like
(45:46):
that he's got. He's got, like the cute team is got,
like the cute tip haircut. Like if if my ears
are ever dirty, I would just like, you know, nice shot.
Just can't root from Maryland. Isn't Mr Epstein watching this game?
They rejected me? Actually it's funny. I bet against Maryland
the last two games and he's been mad at me.
And I actually liked them today and I didn't bet them.
(46:06):
And they're going to cover. Yeah, it looks like they're
going to at least I always I usually fade Maryland.
But again, this is only the first half. Let's see
what Maryland does in the second half. And you know what,
that's a great point, and that's a great reason why
Michigan right now, let's see on Maryland. I mean what
Michigan is. What's eleven and a half? Half? Um? You know,
(46:26):
actually the under might be a nice little sneaky little
under it are, Yeah, because it was in the one
thirties pregame and it just ticked up late because of
I could see Maryland getting off to at eight and
a half and right now it's at one forty three.
And let's be real, this game is not going over time.
That's your always, your biggest fear with these games. And
(46:50):
there's two live opportunities that I see right now. I
see the under in the Maryland Michigan game. And Houston
is starting to become intriguing to me. Uh down five
in the first half to Memphis. Houston's really struggled down
the stretch. It's really funny. Right after I bet Houston
on my futures pick, they've been awful. They've lost three
out of the last This went down to Houston menace
(47:11):
one and a half on the live line. If you
can find Houston as a dog out there, that's a
good pick. Today they were I want to say they
were eight or nine point favorites today, but Houston, Houston
was a nine point favorite today. My dad just texted me,
let's go Maryland. I'm Mr Epstein. I'm guessing he's watching. Yeah,
(47:32):
oh wow, I can send some food to the studio.
You brought a sandwich, but I'm I didn't. I had
my breakfast and now now I'm staring at your diet. Snap.
I can't wait to see how Maryland comes out of
the second half. Dad, should we just fade Maryland? I'm
gonna put five bucks. I'm putting five dollars on Michigan
(47:53):
plus and if they win, if Maryland covers the eleven
and a half, Mr Epstein, Uh, you have to you
have to send me five bucks. If they don't, I
if Michigan covers, I'll I'll send you money. How's that
you can't talk back to me, but we're taking advantage
that you can't talk back. That's yeah, take advantage of
(48:14):
that because it won't happen once you get home in
about the five hours. Oh man, um okay, So again
we've talked a lot of college hoops. I want to
switch back over to the NBA just a little bit. Um. Well,
actually we have a minute left, so we'll switch over
to the NBA coming up after the break, because we're
going to break in about a minute or so. So
Jared says, right now he likes Houston on the live line. Yeah,
(48:36):
wait to see if it flips to a dog. Don't
jump on it now it's minus one and a half.
See if Memphis gets you know, if Memphis holds that
lead for a minute or two in the second half,
it should flipped to a dog. But the under you know,
all kidding aside with Mr Epstein, the under in that
Maryland Michigan game does look a little juicy. I can
definitely see Maryland pulling back the reins in the second
half and just clamping down defensively and trying to just
(48:57):
ice that game away. Because right now Marylyn sees the
finish line of the Big ten tournament there, twenty minutes
away from getting a top four seed, and I can
see them really throttling down and just you know, locking
down defensively. So Maryland has to win to lock down
the top four. No, but they I do think that
they would. They would behoove them to stay in the
top two or the top three. Actually, I don't know
(49:19):
how the standing shape the big tens of mess at
the top. I know Wisconsin is the one seed. That's
all I know. I know nothing else about the big flown.
My dad says he got a great chicken palmstrum Bowlie.
That's so mean. That is actually really mean, really mean,
really betting against Maryland. Bade Maryland, that's our gut feel well,
be back when Moore at the window coming up next.
(49:40):
Barry Ellen Dereed
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