November 27, 2025 • 19 mins
Join Joe Pisapia and Andrew Erickson for their best bets for NFL Week 13!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
MIA -5 - 0:00:47
Tua Tagovailoa Under 31.5 Pass Attempts - 0:01:41
CLE +6.5 - 0:03:37
HOU +4.5 - 0:06:25
CAR/LAR Over 44.5 - 0:08:16
BettingPros Discord - 0:10:00
MIN/SEA Under 41.5 - 0:10:20
Seattle -10.5 - 0:11:24
LV/LAC Over 40.5 - 0:13:25
Brian Thomas Jr. Under 4.5 Receptions - 0:14:06
Hard Rock Bet of the Week - 0:15:16
Joe’s Upset Special - 0:16:59
Joe’s Parlay of the Week - 0:17:45
Outro - 0:18:32
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to play
short bets. It is be Joey p Joe Pisapia and
this is BP NFL. Hope everybody enjoy their holidays. And
of course Andrew Erickson partied a little hard on the holiday,
so he's a little under the weather, but he's still
here for you for the best bets for this coming weekend,
Sunday's NFL Action. We had some fun football on the
holiday Thursdays and Fridays, and now it's time to get
(00:23):
to the Sundays here, and we got a good Sunday
slate as well. We're gonna give the upset specials. By
the way, last week hit the parlay j Ching and
the upset special. Let's go baby. It was a good
week for the joeyp but the rest of my picks
two and three. But that's okay because the ROI from
the parlay that's six to one. It doesn't matter that
I had an extra loss. Andrew Rickson also two and three.
(00:44):
So we're gonna try to be a little bit better
this week, Andrew. And let's start here at the very
top of the show with a game that you know,
my competence of the Dolphins, I gotta say, has not
always been the highest this year. It's it's just a fact.
But recently it's been growing. The defense is starting to
play a little bit better. And I'm going to go
ahead and take a shot here at the Miami Dolphins
(01:06):
minus five you're getting right now on betting pros, and
they're playing the New Orleans Saints in their own building there,
So the New Orleans Saints sev Tyler Schuck traveling on
the road. I'll have a Kamara probably for this game
as we're recording this, and it looks like a situation
here where Devon a Chan should run amok and they
should beat the New Orleans Saints by a touchdown. They
just should. So I actually really like this five. I
(01:26):
think it's a very comfortable number here. Again, confidence and
and the Dolphins is not something I like to utter
in the same sentence this season. But this is where
we are, and it's Week thirteen and stuff's getting weird.
Andrew Erickson, give me your first pick because it also
has to do with the Miami Dolphins this week.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Yeah, so we're not doing a prop specific show this week.
For the Week thirteen slates, So I do have some
props in here for my best bets, and I do
agree with you. I'm fully on board with the Miami
Dolphins covering five and a half points at home. Miami
is a team that you want to bet on when
they're favored and when they're playing in Miami, especially when
it's against the bad team. So it's kind of checking
off all the boxes of Okay, can we trust the
(02:02):
Dolphins this week? I think we can, and we just
look at how the Saints, if they're gonna be able
to score offensively. Their offense ranks thirty second in the
red zone in terms of scoring offense. Miami's defense is
top five in red zone defense. So I just don't
think Saints are gonna be able to put touchdowns on
the board, and I think that gives an edge to
the Miami Dolphins. So I'm there with you laying the
points with Miami. And because I expect Miami to kind
(02:24):
of control this game. You mentioned at the top eight
chan kind of running amuck over the Saints defense. I
think it's that we see less of two of throwing
the football here. So under thirty one and a half
pass attempts is my favorite prop in this game. This
is a five star bet on the prop bet cheat
the cheat cheat this week, which I absolutely love. So
two is under this number in six of his eleven games
played the season, including four of his last five games,
(02:46):
and over that span, the Dolphins are negative eight percent
pass right over expectation. Mike McDaniels kind of trying to
hide too a little bit here because he knows the
more that to a throws, the more like he's he's
going to throw an interception and make it harder for
him to win the game. So in a game where
I expect Miami to play some ball control, they're coming
off a bye week, they should be pretty healthy to
be able to.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Run the football.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
And the Saints, that's how people have attacked them this year.
The Saints, despite being one of the worst teams in
the NFL, it's like teams are not throwing on them.
They've allowed just twenty seven point nine pass attempts per game,
that's fourth lowest in the NFL. And if you look
at some of the betting pro systems that we have
on the site and in the app, Tua eleven to
five towards under in his pass attempts when Miami has
favored this year, and then twenty one to nine over
(03:27):
his last thirty games towards the under of to his
pass attempts. So I really like this one in correlation
with the Miami Dolphins also covering five and a half
point spread.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
All right, Next up for number two, We've got the
Cleveland Browns and I am very much on them this
week taking on the San Francisco forty nine ers. This
one's in Cleveland. They got a little bit of momentum
here with se Door Sanders. Was it perfect? No? Was
it improved?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Yes?
Speaker 1 (03:49):
I think it was, And I think Miles Garrett's been
an absolute menace to society this year. And I'm old
enough to remember a couple of years ago where Brock
Purdy had a struggle bus day in Cleveland. It's a
tough spot to play. The crowd's going to be up.
It's a holiday weekend, right, everybody's going to be rested
and ready to go. And last time we saw that happen,
a lot of these pieces kind of fell off and
(04:11):
got heard around Brock Purty. He was the last man standing,
and the last thing you know is Cleveland Brown's coming away.
With a victory there. Now, I don't know about the
whole victory. Maybe more on that later in the show.
Still pondering that, but I will say this, I think
the six and a half is just too many points.
I think the Cleveland defense is going to keep this
one close. And we all know that that San Francisco
defense is just not what it used to be, Okay,
(04:32):
a lot of injuries, a lot of problems in the secondary.
So I don't want to take too much of what
I saw beating the Carolina Panthers defensively. There's a whole
other situation and Cleveland at home, Andrew always plays good defense.
So what's your take on this game, because I think
you're in on this one as well.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Yeah, I absolutely love the Browns catching the points here
at home. When you talk about home field advantage, which
I think has not nearly been as big a vocal
point in the NFL as it's been in years past
because of the way that teams can travel now. But
Cleveland playing in Cleveland, they have the best record against
the spread at home at fourteen and seven sixty seven percent,
so two of three games they're almost always covering. And
(05:10):
this is despite them always having bad quarterbacks like this
is factoring in that they usually don't ever have the
better quarterback playing in the game, and yet they're covering
in more often than not in their games. So you
love the home field advantage here. And we were talking
about upset special. Look, the Browns are six and six
straight up their last twelve games as a home underdogs,
so fifty percent of the time they're just beating the
(05:30):
other team out right, even though the market expects them
to outright lose. So I don't know what the money
line play is on the Browns, but I think that
there's value on that, especially because we've already seen this before.
Like you said, Purdy went into Cleveland and it was
an absolute disaster for that forty nine ers offense. They're
coming off a short week playing on Monday night football,
McCaffrey of another game with thirty plus touches, like, is
he going to be nearly as good and nearly as
(05:51):
effective with no rest? And they haven't had their buy
week yet. So I just love the Browns here in
this spot. And the thing that I'm also is a
really interesting trend. If you look the forty nine Ers,
they have failed to cover the spread fifteen of their
last seventeen games following a win like so basically they're
a team that after they win, especially on primetime. I mean,
Rock Purdy did not look great. So I love the
(06:13):
Browns here in the spot as well.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
In some markets are already moving on betting pros. I'm
looking at it right now to five and a half.
So get in on this because I think some of
the sharper money's starting to pick up some of the
things that we are as well. Next up here, the
Houston Texans. I want to talk about them because I'm
gonna take them here against the Indianapolis Colts. Now, I
know this one's on the road, but again, these Indivision
games always play very tough, right and the Houston Texans,
(06:36):
I feel like, defensively, you know they're gonna show up.
You know, this team is always going to be prepared
to play. And I'm starting to get the feeling that
I don't want to see the bloom is off the
rows with the Colts, Like they've played a tight game
in Kansas City, you know, could have gone either way,
but of course it's very tough to get a w
in Kansas City. However, I also feel like the leagues
kind of catch it up a little bit to what
the Colts want to do and what they want to
(06:57):
be here, and I think that the Houston Texans are
gonna be very well prepared for this game. Now again,
I'm not necessarily taking the Texans on the money line here,
but I will take the points four and a half.
Houston also does a great job of limiting opposing offenses
to low point totals. That's gonna help this one stay
close as well. So as long as Houston put some
points up on the board, I do think this one's
(07:19):
gonna be tight. I would lean towards the under in
this game as well. However, I think the Houston Texans
just taken the points. Is the smart bet? Andrew? What's
next for you on pick number three? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (07:29):
I do want to ask you a follow up on
the Texans ANDLS game. Is this a game that you
would entertain also kind of like teasing where you moved
the Houston up to like plus ten and a half
and you move the game total up to forty eight
and a half. Take me under, right, because we know
that the Texans all they do is play towards the
under in games always yeah, because their defenses so well,
and that makes those games really close. So I feel like,
(07:51):
maybe if you want to get a better number on Houston,
you just kind of tease a total. I know that's
what I did last week with the Texans on Thursday
night against the Bills, and I mean, that wasn't even
a sweat. I mean and expect the text to win,
but when you have such an elite defense, it's really
hard for to imagine the Colts, even though it's on
the road. Are the Colts gonna blow out the Texans? Like, No,
probably not. So maybe that's another another way to play it.
Speaker 1 (08:11):
I actually think it's a really interesting angle on that game.
And you've got some angle two on the Los Angeles
Rams Carolina Panthers game as well.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Yeah, so Panthers and Rams. I wanted to come on
here and say, Okay, well, double digit dog at home,
you gotta take the Carolina Panthers. But when it's against
the Rams, who are easily the best team in the NFL,
even though it's on the road, like, I just don't
feel comfortable necessarily doing that, especially with how volatile the
Panthers can be on a week to week basis and
(08:39):
the Rams have been one of the best teams against
the spread in terms of playing on the road, ten
and one against the spread since twenty twenty three as
a road favorite. So although the Panthers have covered the
spread in ten straight games as an underdog following a loss,
I think the trends are just too strong in both teams.
So the way I want to play it is I'll
take the over on the game because because I don't
(09:00):
think the Panthers defense, down three starters in their secondary
from last week, is gonna be able to stop Davante
and Puka Nakua in this Rams offense, I just don't
see they could put They could put up a forty
burger it. Yeah, So I think the Rams are gonna
be able to score points here. But to give some
credit to the Carolina Panthers who respond after a losses,
as I kind of just alluded to, they're really good
(09:22):
at covering the number after they lose a game, especially
after a pretty poor performance on Monday night against they
banged up forty nine ers defense. The other trend I
noticed with that after a loss, they're also twelve and
five towards the over in terms of the total, So
I think that you get a bounce back performance from
a Panthers offense here playing at home, a little bit
more control, even think it's a tougher Rams defense. Again,
I still think the Rams are a little bit susceptible
(09:42):
with their secondary just a matter of if the pass
rush gets home or not. So I do think that
the over in this game against pretty low forty four
and a half. And just like you said, if the
Rams put up thirty five on their own, like the
Panthers don't need to do much to get this over
forty five points. The Panthers traditionally at home also play
a lot towards the over. So I like the over
here at forty four and a half points.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
All right, remember everybody too. You can keep the conversation
going on our discord bettingpros dot com slash chat. It's free,
it's fun. You can get advice from expert handicappers like
Matt Perrault over there, and of course there's a lot
of great people in there. It's a very tight knit community.
We're talking props, we're talking picks, we're talking all different
sports too. So join our discord over at bettingpros dot
com slash chat. All right, everybody, it's time to get
(10:22):
to pick number four on our lists, and this one
might be my lock of the week of Minnesota at Seattle.
I'm taking the under forty one and a half. And
here's why. Look, Minnesota, I think it's just quit. I
think it's over. Maybe it's a concussion protocol for JJ McCarthy,
maybe it's just another soft benching. Whatever it is, it's
not been good. And I think it's just over for
the Vikings in twenty twenty five. And that's unfortunate because
(10:43):
this was a team that I thought really could win
this division this year and they've fallen woefully short of that.
And the Seattle Seahawks have been absolutely spectacular. And there's
no way the Vikings defense has an answer for JSN.
I know better than that. The defense has played wonderful
this year or the Seattle Seahawks, and I don't necessarily
have confidence that Minnesota can do their part in this game.
(11:06):
So that's why I'm taking the under on the forty
one and a half. I think this is a comfortable victory.
I think they're coasting through this in the second half,
something like you know, thirty to six or something to
that effect, and I think we call this one a
ball game. So I'm very much on the under here
with Seattle and Minnesota. Bad times for the Minnesota Vikings.
Your thoughts on this contest.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Yeah, I'm taking Seattle laying the points, even if it's
ten and a half points. I don't care because, like
you said, the Viking season is kind of like spiraling
here right, Like the idea was, okay, can Jaj macarthury
be the guy? Can you take a step coming back
off the injury? And the answer has been no this
year like he has been outright disaster. It's why they're
going to Max Brosmer as the starting quarterback and MacArthur
(11:45):
deal in the concussion. We want to bet against rookie
quarterbacks making starts on the road for the first time
in their careers, especially when they're undrafted guys who have
spent five years in college and they're playing at Seattle. Like,
to me, this is I mean, I would lay two
touchdowns with the Seattle Seahawks at home. How is it
even if the Vikings offits is bet? Like, I just
think that this is a total smash spot for Seattle
(12:07):
and the other narrative that I like as well. I
think the Seak could run up the score. It's San
Donald facing his old team, it's in Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
But that's also true. That's an element too.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
You don't think when Kubiak's gonna let San Donald's sling
it against the team that decided no, we don't want you,
we want to do McCart the and that looks like
the worst decision they could have made this offseason. So
I really love Seattle in the spot. Again, they're clearly
the better team. I don't think ten and a half
points is enough.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
Well, in all fairness, the Vikings also gave him a
second life, so I mean, you know he should be
You should be grateful, Sam Donald that you got that. Well,
what's the second chance? It was like the fourth chance,
I feel like for Sam Donald in Minnesota, and I
think that's accurate. That was the fourth stop for him, right,
because it was the Jets, it was Carolina, it was
San Fran for a hot minute, right, and then Minnesota.
So hey man, on the fourth chance, you got it
(12:53):
right and they wrote it all the way and you
kind of fell apart at the end. The wheels came off.
So I don't think Sam Donald should have a negative feeling,
but yes, there will be some pride there. So now
you got me worried about my under damn you Andrew Rickson. Well, look,
if it's forty to nothing, I still I mean.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
That's what I mean. Why don't you just lay the points?
Speaker 1 (13:10):
Come on, lay the points of me. Come on, come on,
lay the points of me. Guy. Now, now I'm gonna
be my own man. Andrew Rickson, all right, last pick here,
and then we'll get to the hard rock best bets
of the week. And of course he got upset specials
for you. We hit it last week and the parlay
of the week as well. So number five here for
me is the over for Las Vegas and the Chargers.
It's forty and a half. It's a very low number.
(13:32):
The Chargers are coming off a bye and speaking of
getting rid of things and putting them in the past,
the next thing that's gone now is chip Kelly. So
let's see if this offense comes out looking a little different,
maybe having a little bit more life. I think that
would be a good idea here for to Las Vegas Raiders.
They stuck with Chip Kelly far too long, and I
(13:52):
think this week they could put up a decent amount
of points on a Chargers team that still has some problems,
still has some offensive line issues as well, so there
could be some turnovers in this game. So I'm gonna
go ahead and take this over on a very low number. Andrew,
what's your fifth and final selection for your best bets
for Week thirteen.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
It was my stone cold lock of the week on
the Prop Show last week, and it was only a
few hours before it totally got nuked because Brian Thomas
Junior got ruled out late on Friday. We're going right
back to it because Brian Thomas Junior plays, he's not
getting over four and a half receptions. He listened back
to the Prop Show, but it's the same spiel over.
Just twice in six of eight games this season has
he had over four and a half catches. And this
(14:29):
offense looks kind of different now that he's been gone.
Jacobe Myers is entrenched as one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite
slot targets. Parker Washington is having kind of like a
mini breakout. Brenton Strange is back from injury preserve as
a tight end that Trevor Lawrence really relies on as
his underneath option. So I just think that there's a
lot of mouths to feed here in this offense. And
Brian Simmons Jr. Just has not shown the rapport with
(14:50):
Trevor Lawrence at all this season, and even dating back
to last season, Btj's gone under four and a half
catches in eight of his ten games played with Trevor
Lawrence as his quarterback. This guy needs mac Jones more
than anyone needs Mac Jones at this point to get
back to level meets of production, and that's just not
going to happen. So Brian Toms Junior fingers crossed, he plays,
and we just smash the under on his reception because
(15:11):
he's also coming off an injury, so I'm not expecting
him to have any sort of big game.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
All right. That brings us to our hard Rock Best
Bets of the Week, and don't forget everybody. You can
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(15:37):
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(15:59):
color Brotto, Illinois. In New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. My
pick of the week, I'm staying with the Minnesota Seattle
under forty one and a half Aeron. Andrew Rickson tried
to put the fear of God him to me that
Sam Darnold's gonna keep throwing the ball and they're gonna
have fifty points in this game, just as the Seattle Seahawks.
I think it's more likely they're up, really, you know,
thirty to three in the third quarter and everyone's just
(16:20):
resting in the fourth. I think that's the smarter play here.
You've got playoff implications here if you're the Seattle Seahawks
and Brosemer, Oh, Bro, I just have no faith in
you here, sorry, buddy, rookie quarterback, third stringer on the road.
Not a good look, So ericson, give me your lock
of the week for Week thirteen.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Brian Toms Junior under four and a half receptions. Like
I said, his last ten games played with Trevor Lawrence
as his quarterback. He's gone under this number in eight
of those ten games, coming off an injury. Not expecting
a big production ro him in his first game back.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
Okay, but everybody, those are the locks of the week
from us from hard Rock Bet again that five bucks
get one hundred and fifteen bonus bets only at hard
Rock Bets Sportsbook. Download the app today. All right, make
a look at the upset special for the week. I'm
five and seven on the year. Close in a little
bit of a run lately, Andrew with these upset specials
here got the Dallas Cowboys last week, had to sweat
(17:09):
it a little bit, but Honestly, I was still confident.
I told you on Monday, I'm still confident. Half that
I was like, man, I don't think Dallas has done
I just don't think so, And sure enough they were not.
This week. I'm gonna go there wasn't a lot to
pick from. We had so many games already on Thursday
and Friday that limited in terms of upsets. So I'm
gonna go with one that I think I feel the
most confident in, which is the Cleveland Browns plus two
of five on the money line against the San Francisco
(17:31):
forty nine ers pulling a rabbit out of their hat,
getting your door a w at home. I think that
would be quite a thrill there for the Cleveland Browns
fans who have not had a lot to cheer about
in the last thirty years. Thirty I feel like pratty.
It's a long time, all right. Let's get to the
parlay of the week too. So if you take our
best bets of this week, which is my under forty
(17:51):
one and a half Minnesota Seattle game Ericson's under on
the four and a half receptions for Brian Thomas Junior,
and you put them together, you get plus two fits.
That's the parlay of the week, but the people's parlay.
We have one of our favorite folks there drop something
on Monday show, and we're gonna take it, which is
the Houston plus four and a half because Andrew and
I both like that. So you put the Houston four
(18:12):
and a half, which is the people's pick. We saw
a couple people actually drop that in the comments on
YouTube last Monday. You put that together for the third
leg of the parleague, get plus five fifty six. So
there you have it. Houston plus four and a half,
BTJ under four and a half. Receptions, Minnesota, Seattle under
four and a half. Oh my god, the Undertaker would
be so happy here, wouldn't Andrew? All these unders so good? Again.
(18:33):
We want to wish everybody a wonderful holiday weekend, and
we'll be back on Monday as always to break it
all down again. That'll do it for us, But the
story of the game goes on for Andrew Erickson. I'm
Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to play
short bets. It is be Joey p Joe Pisapia and
this is BP NFL. Hope everybody enjoy their holidays. And
of course Andrew Erickson partied a little hard on the holiday,
so he's a little under the weather, but he's still
here for you for the best bets for this coming weekend,
Sunday's NFL Action. We had some fun football on the
holiday Thursdays and Fridays, and now it's time to get
(00:23):
to the Sundays here, and we got a good Sunday
slate as well. We're gonna give the upset specials. By
the way, last week hit the parlay j Ching and
the upset special. Let's go baby. It was a good
week for the joeyp but the rest of my picks
two and three. But that's okay because the ROI from
the parlay that's six to one. It doesn't matter that
I had an extra loss. Andrew Rickson also two and three.
(00:44):
So we're gonna try to be a little bit better
this week, Andrew. And let's start here at the very
top of the show with a game that you know,
my competence of the Dolphins, I gotta say, has not
always been the highest this year. It's it's just a fact.
But recently it's been growing. The defense is starting to
play a little bit better. And I'm going to go
ahead and take a shot here at the Miami Dolphins
(01:06):
minus five you're getting right now on betting pros, and
they're playing the New Orleans Saints in their own building there,
So the New Orleans Saints sev Tyler Schuck traveling on
the road. I'll have a Kamara probably for this game
as we're recording this, and it looks like a situation
here where Devon a Chan should run amok and they
should beat the New Orleans Saints by a touchdown. They
just should. So I actually really like this five. I
(01:26):
think it's a very comfortable number here. Again, confidence and
and the Dolphins is not something I like to utter
in the same sentence this season. But this is where
we are, and it's Week thirteen and stuff's getting weird.
Andrew Erickson, give me your first pick because it also
has to do with the Miami Dolphins this week.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Yeah, so we're not doing a prop specific show this week.
For the Week thirteen slates, So I do have some
props in here for my best bets, and I do
agree with you. I'm fully on board with the Miami
Dolphins covering five and a half points at home. Miami
is a team that you want to bet on when
they're favored and when they're playing in Miami, especially when
it's against the bad team. So it's kind of checking
off all the boxes of Okay, can we trust the
(02:02):
Dolphins this week? I think we can, and we just
look at how the Saints, if they're gonna be able
to score offensively. Their offense ranks thirty second in the
red zone in terms of scoring offense. Miami's defense is
top five in red zone defense. So I just don't
think Saints are gonna be able to put touchdowns on
the board, and I think that gives an edge to
the Miami Dolphins. So I'm there with you laying the
points with Miami. And because I expect Miami to kind
(02:24):
of control this game. You mentioned at the top eight
chan kind of running amuck over the Saints defense. I
think it's that we see less of two of throwing
the football here. So under thirty one and a half
pass attempts is my favorite prop in this game. This
is a five star bet on the prop bet cheat
the cheat cheat this week, which I absolutely love. So
two is under this number in six of his eleven games
played the season, including four of his last five games,
(02:46):
and over that span, the Dolphins are negative eight percent
pass right over expectation. Mike McDaniels kind of trying to
hide too a little bit here because he knows the
more that to a throws, the more like he's he's
going to throw an interception and make it harder for
him to win the game. So in a game where
I expect Miami to play some ball control, they're coming
off a bye week, they should be pretty healthy to
be able to.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Run the football.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
And the Saints, that's how people have attacked them this year.
The Saints, despite being one of the worst teams in
the NFL, it's like teams are not throwing on them.
They've allowed just twenty seven point nine pass attempts per game,
that's fourth lowest in the NFL. And if you look
at some of the betting pro systems that we have
on the site and in the app, Tua eleven to
five towards under in his pass attempts when Miami has
favored this year, and then twenty one to nine over
(03:27):
his last thirty games towards the under of to his
pass attempts. So I really like this one in correlation
with the Miami Dolphins also covering five and a half
point spread.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
All right, Next up for number two, We've got the
Cleveland Browns and I am very much on them this
week taking on the San Francisco forty nine ers. This
one's in Cleveland. They got a little bit of momentum
here with se Door Sanders. Was it perfect? No? Was
it improved?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Yes?
Speaker 1 (03:49):
I think it was, And I think Miles Garrett's been
an absolute menace to society this year. And I'm old
enough to remember a couple of years ago where Brock
Purdy had a struggle bus day in Cleveland. It's a
tough spot to play. The crowd's going to be up.
It's a holiday weekend, right, everybody's going to be rested
and ready to go. And last time we saw that happen,
a lot of these pieces kind of fell off and
(04:11):
got heard around Brock Purty. He was the last man standing,
and the last thing you know is Cleveland Brown's coming away.
With a victory there. Now, I don't know about the
whole victory. Maybe more on that later in the show.
Still pondering that, but I will say this, I think
the six and a half is just too many points.
I think the Cleveland defense is going to keep this
one close. And we all know that that San Francisco
defense is just not what it used to be, Okay,
(04:32):
a lot of injuries, a lot of problems in the secondary.
So I don't want to take too much of what
I saw beating the Carolina Panthers defensively. There's a whole
other situation and Cleveland at home, Andrew always plays good defense.
So what's your take on this game, because I think
you're in on this one as well.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Yeah, I absolutely love the Browns catching the points here
at home. When you talk about home field advantage, which
I think has not nearly been as big a vocal
point in the NFL as it's been in years past
because of the way that teams can travel now. But
Cleveland playing in Cleveland, they have the best record against
the spread at home at fourteen and seven sixty seven percent,
so two of three games they're almost always covering. And
(05:10):
this is despite them always having bad quarterbacks like this
is factoring in that they usually don't ever have the
better quarterback playing in the game, and yet they're covering
in more often than not in their games. So you
love the home field advantage here. And we were talking
about upset special. Look, the Browns are six and six
straight up their last twelve games as a home underdogs,
so fifty percent of the time they're just beating the
(05:30):
other team out right, even though the market expects them
to outright lose. So I don't know what the money
line play is on the Browns, but I think that
there's value on that, especially because we've already seen this before.
Like you said, Purdy went into Cleveland and it was
an absolute disaster for that forty nine ers offense. They're
coming off a short week playing on Monday night football,
McCaffrey of another game with thirty plus touches, like, is
he going to be nearly as good and nearly as
(05:51):
effective with no rest? And they haven't had their buy
week yet. So I just love the Browns here in
this spot. And the thing that I'm also is a
really interesting trend. If you look the forty nine Ers,
they have failed to cover the spread fifteen of their
last seventeen games following a win like so basically they're
a team that after they win, especially on primetime. I mean,
Rock Purdy did not look great. So I love the
(06:13):
Browns here in the spot as well.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
In some markets are already moving on betting pros. I'm
looking at it right now to five and a half.
So get in on this because I think some of
the sharper money's starting to pick up some of the
things that we are as well. Next up here, the
Houston Texans. I want to talk about them because I'm
gonna take them here against the Indianapolis Colts. Now, I
know this one's on the road, but again, these Indivision
games always play very tough, right and the Houston Texans,
(06:36):
I feel like, defensively, you know they're gonna show up.
You know, this team is always going to be prepared
to play. And I'm starting to get the feeling that
I don't want to see the bloom is off the
rows with the Colts, Like they've played a tight game
in Kansas City, you know, could have gone either way,
but of course it's very tough to get a w
in Kansas City. However, I also feel like the leagues
kind of catch it up a little bit to what
the Colts want to do and what they want to
(06:57):
be here, and I think that the Houston Texans are
gonna be very well prepared for this game. Now again,
I'm not necessarily taking the Texans on the money line here,
but I will take the points four and a half.
Houston also does a great job of limiting opposing offenses
to low point totals. That's gonna help this one stay
close as well. So as long as Houston put some
points up on the board, I do think this one's
(07:19):
gonna be tight. I would lean towards the under in
this game as well. However, I think the Houston Texans
just taken the points. Is the smart bet? Andrew? What's
next for you on pick number three? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (07:29):
I do want to ask you a follow up on
the Texans ANDLS game. Is this a game that you
would entertain also kind of like teasing where you moved
the Houston up to like plus ten and a half
and you move the game total up to forty eight
and a half. Take me under, right, because we know
that the Texans all they do is play towards the
under in games always yeah, because their defenses so well,
and that makes those games really close. So I feel like,
(07:51):
maybe if you want to get a better number on Houston,
you just kind of tease a total. I know that's
what I did last week with the Texans on Thursday
night against the Bills, and I mean, that wasn't even
a sweat. I mean and expect the text to win,
but when you have such an elite defense, it's really
hard for to imagine the Colts, even though it's on
the road. Are the Colts gonna blow out the Texans? Like, No,
probably not. So maybe that's another another way to play it.
Speaker 1 (08:11):
I actually think it's a really interesting angle on that game.
And you've got some angle two on the Los Angeles
Rams Carolina Panthers game as well.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Yeah, so Panthers and Rams. I wanted to come on
here and say, Okay, well, double digit dog at home,
you gotta take the Carolina Panthers. But when it's against
the Rams, who are easily the best team in the NFL,
even though it's on the road, like, I just don't
feel comfortable necessarily doing that, especially with how volatile the
Panthers can be on a week to week basis and
(08:39):
the Rams have been one of the best teams against
the spread in terms of playing on the road, ten
and one against the spread since twenty twenty three as
a road favorite. So although the Panthers have covered the
spread in ten straight games as an underdog following a loss,
I think the trends are just too strong in both teams.
So the way I want to play it is I'll
take the over on the game because because I don't
(09:00):
think the Panthers defense, down three starters in their secondary
from last week, is gonna be able to stop Davante
and Puka Nakua in this Rams offense, I just don't
see they could put They could put up a forty
burger it. Yeah, So I think the Rams are gonna
be able to score points here. But to give some
credit to the Carolina Panthers who respond after a losses,
as I kind of just alluded to, they're really good
(09:22):
at covering the number after they lose a game, especially
after a pretty poor performance on Monday night against they
banged up forty nine ers defense. The other trend I
noticed with that after a loss, they're also twelve and
five towards the over in terms of the total, So
I think that you get a bounce back performance from
a Panthers offense here playing at home, a little bit
more control, even think it's a tougher Rams defense. Again,
I still think the Rams are a little bit susceptible
(09:42):
with their secondary just a matter of if the pass
rush gets home or not. So I do think that
the over in this game against pretty low forty four
and a half. And just like you said, if the
Rams put up thirty five on their own, like the
Panthers don't need to do much to get this over
forty five points. The Panthers traditionally at home also play
a lot towards the over. So I like the over
here at forty four and a half points.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
All right, remember everybody too. You can keep the conversation
going on our discord bettingpros dot com slash chat. It's free,
it's fun. You can get advice from expert handicappers like
Matt Perrault over there, and of course there's a lot
of great people in there. It's a very tight knit community.
We're talking props, we're talking picks, we're talking all different
sports too. So join our discord over at bettingpros dot
com slash chat. All right, everybody, it's time to get
(10:22):
to pick number four on our lists, and this one
might be my lock of the week of Minnesota at Seattle.
I'm taking the under forty one and a half. And
here's why. Look, Minnesota, I think it's just quit. I
think it's over. Maybe it's a concussion protocol for JJ McCarthy,
maybe it's just another soft benching. Whatever it is, it's
not been good. And I think it's just over for
the Vikings in twenty twenty five. And that's unfortunate because
(10:43):
this was a team that I thought really could win
this division this year and they've fallen woefully short of that.
And the Seattle Seahawks have been absolutely spectacular. And there's
no way the Vikings defense has an answer for JSN.
I know better than that. The defense has played wonderful
this year or the Seattle Seahawks, and I don't necessarily
have confidence that Minnesota can do their part in this game.
(11:06):
So that's why I'm taking the under on the forty
one and a half. I think this is a comfortable victory.
I think they're coasting through this in the second half,
something like you know, thirty to six or something to
that effect, and I think we call this one a
ball game. So I'm very much on the under here
with Seattle and Minnesota. Bad times for the Minnesota Vikings.
Your thoughts on this contest.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Yeah, I'm taking Seattle laying the points, even if it's
ten and a half points. I don't care because, like
you said, the Viking season is kind of like spiraling
here right, Like the idea was, okay, can Jaj macarthury
be the guy? Can you take a step coming back
off the injury? And the answer has been no this
year like he has been outright disaster. It's why they're
going to Max Brosmer as the starting quarterback and MacArthur
(11:45):
deal in the concussion. We want to bet against rookie
quarterbacks making starts on the road for the first time
in their careers, especially when they're undrafted guys who have
spent five years in college and they're playing at Seattle. Like,
to me, this is I mean, I would lay two
touchdowns with the Seattle Seahawks at home. How is it
even if the Vikings offits is bet? Like, I just
think that this is a total smash spot for Seattle
(12:07):
and the other narrative that I like as well. I
think the Seak could run up the score. It's San
Donald facing his old team, it's in Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
But that's also true. That's an element too.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
You don't think when Kubiak's gonna let San Donald's sling
it against the team that decided no, we don't want you,
we want to do McCart the and that looks like
the worst decision they could have made this offseason. So
I really love Seattle in the spot. Again, they're clearly
the better team. I don't think ten and a half
points is enough.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
Well, in all fairness, the Vikings also gave him a
second life, so I mean, you know he should be
You should be grateful, Sam Donald that you got that. Well,
what's the second chance? It was like the fourth chance,
I feel like for Sam Donald in Minnesota, and I
think that's accurate. That was the fourth stop for him, right,
because it was the Jets, it was Carolina, it was
San Fran for a hot minute, right, and then Minnesota.
So hey man, on the fourth chance, you got it
(12:53):
right and they wrote it all the way and you
kind of fell apart at the end. The wheels came off.
So I don't think Sam Donald should have a negative feeling,
but yes, there will be some pride there. So now
you got me worried about my under damn you Andrew Rickson. Well, look,
if it's forty to nothing, I still I mean.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
That's what I mean. Why don't you just lay the points?
Speaker 1 (13:10):
Come on, lay the points of me. Come on, come on,
lay the points of me. Guy. Now, now I'm gonna
be my own man. Andrew Rickson, all right, last pick here,
and then we'll get to the hard rock best bets
of the week. And of course he got upset specials
for you. We hit it last week and the parlay
of the week as well. So number five here for
me is the over for Las Vegas and the Chargers.
It's forty and a half. It's a very low number.
(13:32):
The Chargers are coming off a bye and speaking of
getting rid of things and putting them in the past,
the next thing that's gone now is chip Kelly. So
let's see if this offense comes out looking a little different,
maybe having a little bit more life. I think that
would be a good idea here for to Las Vegas Raiders.
They stuck with Chip Kelly far too long, and I
(13:52):
think this week they could put up a decent amount
of points on a Chargers team that still has some problems,
still has some offensive line issues as well, so there
could be some turnovers in this game. So I'm gonna
go ahead and take this over on a very low number. Andrew,
what's your fifth and final selection for your best bets
for Week thirteen.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
It was my stone cold lock of the week on
the Prop Show last week, and it was only a
few hours before it totally got nuked because Brian Thomas
Junior got ruled out late on Friday. We're going right
back to it because Brian Thomas Junior plays, he's not
getting over four and a half receptions. He listened back
to the Prop Show, but it's the same spiel over.
Just twice in six of eight games this season has
he had over four and a half catches. And this
(14:29):
offense looks kind of different now that he's been gone.
Jacobe Myers is entrenched as one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite
slot targets. Parker Washington is having kind of like a
mini breakout. Brenton Strange is back from injury preserve as
a tight end that Trevor Lawrence really relies on as
his underneath option. So I just think that there's a
lot of mouths to feed here in this offense. And
Brian Simmons Jr. Just has not shown the rapport with
(14:50):
Trevor Lawrence at all this season, and even dating back
to last season, Btj's gone under four and a half
catches in eight of his ten games played with Trevor
Lawrence as his quarterback. This guy needs mac Jones more
than anyone needs Mac Jones at this point to get
back to level meets of production, and that's just not
going to happen. So Brian Toms Junior fingers crossed, he plays,
and we just smash the under on his reception because
(15:11):
he's also coming off an injury, so I'm not expecting
him to have any sort of big game.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
All right. That brings us to our hard Rock Best
Bets of the Week, and don't forget everybody. You can
download the hard Rock bet right now. Bet five bucks,
get one hundred and fifteen bonus bets, win that first
bet hits plus all of your winnings. And of course
they've got amazing things going on their profit boosts, same
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Rock bets, so download the sportsbook today. Payble and bonus
(15:37):
bets not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe
of Florida in Florida, offered by the Seminal hard Rock
Digital LLC. In other states. Must be twenty one and
physically president Arizona, Colorado and Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee,
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(15:59):
color Brotto, Illinois. In New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. My
pick of the week, I'm staying with the Minnesota Seattle
under forty one and a half Aeron. Andrew Rickson tried
to put the fear of God him to me that
Sam Darnold's gonna keep throwing the ball and they're gonna
have fifty points in this game, just as the Seattle Seahawks.
I think it's more likely they're up, really, you know,
thirty to three in the third quarter and everyone's just
(16:20):
resting in the fourth. I think that's the smarter play here.
You've got playoff implications here if you're the Seattle Seahawks
and Brosemer, Oh, Bro, I just have no faith in
you here, sorry, buddy, rookie quarterback, third stringer on the road.
Not a good look, So ericson, give me your lock
of the week for Week thirteen.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Brian Toms Junior under four and a half receptions. Like
I said, his last ten games played with Trevor Lawrence
as his quarterback. He's gone under this number in eight
of those ten games, coming off an injury. Not expecting
a big production ro him in his first game back.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
Okay, but everybody, those are the locks of the week
from us from hard Rock Bet again that five bucks
get one hundred and fifteen bonus bets only at hard
Rock Bets Sportsbook. Download the app today. All right, make
a look at the upset special for the week. I'm
five and seven on the year. Close in a little
bit of a run lately, Andrew with these upset specials
here got the Dallas Cowboys last week, had to sweat
(17:09):
it a little bit, but Honestly, I was still confident.
I told you on Monday, I'm still confident. Half that
I was like, man, I don't think Dallas has done
I just don't think so, And sure enough they were not.
This week. I'm gonna go there wasn't a lot to
pick from. We had so many games already on Thursday
and Friday that limited in terms of upsets. So I'm
gonna go with one that I think I feel the
most confident in, which is the Cleveland Browns plus two
of five on the money line against the San Francisco
(17:31):
forty nine ers pulling a rabbit out of their hat,
getting your door a w at home. I think that
would be quite a thrill there for the Cleveland Browns
fans who have not had a lot to cheer about
in the last thirty years. Thirty I feel like pratty.
It's a long time, all right. Let's get to the
parlay of the week too. So if you take our
best bets of this week, which is my under forty
(17:51):
one and a half Minnesota Seattle game Ericson's under on
the four and a half receptions for Brian Thomas Junior,
and you put them together, you get plus two fits.
That's the parlay of the week, but the people's parlay.
We have one of our favorite folks there drop something
on Monday show, and we're gonna take it, which is
the Houston plus four and a half because Andrew and
I both like that. So you put the Houston four
(18:12):
and a half, which is the people's pick. We saw
a couple people actually drop that in the comments on
YouTube last Monday. You put that together for the third
leg of the parleague, get plus five fifty six. So
there you have it. Houston plus four and a half,
BTJ under four and a half. Receptions, Minnesota, Seattle under
four and a half. Oh my god, the Undertaker would
be so happy here, wouldn't Andrew? All these unders so good? Again.
(18:33):
We want to wish everybody a wonderful holiday weekend, and
we'll be back on Monday as always to break it
all down again. That'll do it for us, But the
story of the game goes on for Andrew Erickson. I'm
Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify.
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