October 2, 2025 • 30 mins
Join Joe Pisapia, Andrew Erickson, and Terrell Furman as they make their top picks and predictions for all the football goodness about to ensue!
Get your betting card set for the opening week of professional football with our best bets for NFL Week 5!
Intro - 0:00:00
HOU vs. BAL - 0:01:09
CLE vs. MIN - 0:03:03
Commanders Team Total - 0:05:41
MIA vs. CAR - 0:07:22
Hard Rock Bet - 0:09:03
Jets Team Total - 0:10:41
Saints ML - 0:13:31
BettingPros Discord - 0:16:12
DET vs. CIN - 0:17:21
PHI vs. DEN - 0:21:18
TB vs. SEA - 0:25:43
Joe's Parlay of the Week - 0:28:50
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody, the betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's B Joey P joe pis a PA
and this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead
to week five in the NFL for the best bets.
Andrew ericson the Undertaker is back from the wedding madness
last week, and what a job done by Debro three
and two. There you go above five hundred. That's what
(00:22):
you needed there. And of course Terrell had a very
good week four and one last week. Terrell, how does
it feel to be the man on top of the
mountain right now? Twelve and eight on the year, let's go.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah. Of course the Dallas Cowboys were the one loss,
but you know when you got that offense and forty
forty is the tie game, then you know what it is.
What it is.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
But it's all.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Good, it's all good. Four and one. I'll take it
very I'm very much feeling the pressure. I'm trying to
have a really good week two weeks in a row.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
So let's do it all right, let's kick things off here.
Don't forget to subscribe to the channel. That's we're trying
to get you to do right now, trying to get
the one hundred thousand subscribers this year, we could do
it or help so again, like this video share, subscribe
it to us against the world. So let's get on
board here, Terrel, since you are the big man from
week four, why don't you kick us off for week five? Here,
and let's start with two teams in desperation mode, the
(01:13):
Texans and the Ravens. Somebody's gonna be obsolete after this game,
and Lamar Jackson obviously banged up in this one. So
where are we going for this Texans Ravens contest?
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Yeah, for this one. I watched that game last weekend.
I saw the quit in the Ravens. I saw this
Ravens team give up, and it doesn't look like that
that's gonna be anything that's rectified in one week's time.
This is a team that's quit right now. This is
a team with the horrible defense, and now they are
without their MVP. Ravens are four and nine without Lamar Jackson,
(01:47):
averaging sixteen points six points per game. Defense is not
doing them any favors. Over the course of the season,
averaging thirty three point three points per game, most in
the NFL's second most yards in the NFL going up
against the Texans defensive front that has the number one
scoring defense. And while c J. Stroud has not looked
(02:08):
like c J. Stroud of his rookie year in a while,
he completed seventy nine percent of his passes last week
against that Titans defense. That's really bad. They put up
two points against this team last year in front of Beyonce.
I just want to clarify this. This Texans team put
up two points against the Ravens in front of Beyonce
(02:29):
at home last year. So I think this is a
great revenge bounce back spots. I know that they're still
feeling that and they're saying, hey, we want to go
out here and have a great offensive day. And sure enough,
the Ravens defense is just i mean seven to eleven
always open. So yeah, I'm gonna go with the Texans
here laying one and a half. I think that they
are going to come in and beat the Ravens. This
(02:50):
Ravens team hasn't shown me anything, especially after Lamar Jackson
went down against the Chiefs last week.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
All right, don't forget to thank Beyonce. Everybody make sure
on the way out. All right, Erickson, let's get to
you here, and let's start with your first bet of
the week. And let's start in London, where you have
Dylan Gabriel now taking on the Minnesota Vikings. So change
a QB. Everybody thought it would be after the London game. No, no, no,
So let this kid start on a neutral field. Sure,
(03:16):
why not? By the way, the best bet you can make,
By the way, we could go wrong, Terrell, my favorite bet.
I can't do it right now. I'm just waiting for
it to open up. Carson Wentz pick Dylan Gabriel, pick
over on Judkins Garries. Put those three things together. It's
my unofficial parlay of the week. But Ericson, let's talk
about the Baltimore excuse me, the Cleveland Browns here and
the Minnesota Vikings and how you see this one shaping up.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
I like the Vikings here laying the three and a
half points. I think that traditionally you always want to
bet against rookie quarterbacks making their first starts. Now, this
isn't technically a road start for Dylan Gabriel, but it
kind of is because it's not at home, and that's
really the big thing here.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Is.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
The Cleveland Browns are a very different team when they're
not playing in Cleveland, especially when they play on the
their last seven road games, they're zero and seven against
is Bread on the road. They've played two road games
this year, two games at home. They've been blown out
in both of the road games that they've played this season,
and they've kept both home games very very close. The
defense plays significantly better when they're playing in Cleveland. I
think that makes a big difference against the Minnesota Vikings.
(04:18):
Carson Wentz not the best quarterback in the world, but
can even better than Dylan Gabriel by a little bit
more than a field goal, I think. So Brian Flores
is no easy test for any quarterback, let alone a
rookie quarterback making his first start in the NFL. So
the Browns are down on their offensive line. That's a
big issue for them. So I'm not optimistic about Gabriel
(04:39):
making this first start a memorable one. At least four
Browns fans across the nation. So just the stats when
it comes to rookie quarterbacks. So this is from visen
if you look at them when they make their early
season start, So technically this is an early season start,
but it's Gabriel's first start six twenty six and one
straight up twelve to twenty and one against the spread.
That's thirty six percent in the last twenty four games
(05:02):
weeks one through three, twenty nine to twelve towards the under. Again,
that's why there's this total for this game is very,
very low because we're not expecting a lot of points
from either sides and rookie quarterbacks, specifically on the road.
When you want to back a rookie quarterback like last
week Jackson dart Well who's at home, like that makes
a significant difference. But they're not playing at home. It's
much tougher for these rookies to cover the numbers, so
(05:22):
especially when they're small road dogs forty two percent against
the spread when catching plus four and a half or
fewer points. So I'm going to be rolling with the
Minnesota Viking here to bounce back after the loss last
week against the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
All Right, it could be memorable, Andrew, just maybe not
in a good way. I mean, memorable is the very
eye of the beholder. Term Terrell. Let's go back to
you here. Let's talk about the Commanders. Obviously coming off
a tough game last week, So what do you see
the Commander's doing in a week five?
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yeah, I think it is still going to be a
little bit of sub sledding for the Commanders here. I'm
taking them on the under of their team total in
this game. I don't think that they're going to get
over twenty four points here, So give me under twenty
three and a half for this Commanders team. I think
it's going to be a struggle one because you're going
up against a Chargers defense that won flying around the ball.
(06:15):
You have Jaydon Daniels in this Commander's team who are
or are not good on the road. In fact, the offense
just hasn't looked the same with Jye Daniels, and they
haven't gotten over this line with Jayan Daniels in the
helm in the two games he actually played in this season.
Marcus Mariota, however, to and oh has nothing to do
with anything, But I just want to say Jane Danielson's
line zho and two marks Mario too and oh. It
(06:36):
looks like Daniels is going to play here. I think
he's still really really beat up in this spot. Jim
Harball after a loss, really really good I think that
he's gonna go. And the defense still played really well
for them. It was the fact that they couldn't find
any offense and the Joe All injury and the injuries
along the offensive line really really threw off Herbert and
so if they make the adjustments over the week, the
offense could be better. But I don't need the Chargers
(06:56):
offense to be better. I just need the defense to
stay locked in as they've been all year, and so
I think that they're going to continue to keep this going.
A cross country road spot for this Commander's team as well.
I think this is a nice bounce back for the Chargers,
and I think it's just going to be in terms
of points. So hey, maybe this is a low scoring
game and Daniels has some Daniels magic at the end
of the game. I want nothing to do with the side.
(07:16):
Give me the under on the team total for the Commanders.
I don't think that they're going to put up over twenty,
So give me under twenty three and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
All right, Carolina and Miami are going to lock up.
And Andrew Rickson, if he loves one thing, I know
he loves to bet Carolina Panther football. I hope someday
they let you bang the drum down there, kid, That's
what I want you to be able to do. So
bang the drums for this game here, and let's go
Andrew Rickson.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Yeah, I really thought I really wanted to bet on
the Carolina Panthers here against the spread and probably just
to win out right. And I know that they click
they classify for the closed your eyespecially because they got
blown out by the Patriots last week and points at home.
That being said, Miami is a small favorite here, and
Miami has a track record of winning against bad teams
(07:59):
when they're so that's the only thing that's shying me
away from just betting the sides in this game, because
I'm just not confident enough with Carolina that they're not
a good team. That they just aren't. I don't think
that I'm going out on a limb saying that. But
they do tend to play better at home, and the
Miami Dolphins tend to play better against bad teams. So
what happens when you mix us all together? You get Hey,
(08:21):
I think these offenses can probably score against two of
the worst defenses in the NFL, So I'm going over
forty three and a half points. I think this total
is very, very low when you're looking at two of
the worst defenses in the NFL. Miami's defense ranks thirty
first and pass defensive efficiency. I think it's going to
create opportunities for Bryce Young Tetro McMillan to create splash
plays down the field. The Panthers they can't stop the
(08:42):
run and they can't put pressure on quarterbacks. So if
Tuo has time in the pocket, he can get it
to Jayla Wattle Leak Washington one eight chance should have
a monster game running the football against the Carolina Panthers
defense that can't stop the run. Seven of the panthers
last eight games at home have gone over the total
points line. So I will take the over here. Bet
on both these teams offenses against these terrible defenses.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
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Let's get to number three on the list for the
gentlemen today, and let's start with Jets. Jets. Jets, Jets
(10:48):
take it on the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense thrella is
the team that keeps on given and the team total
is very, very tempting here for the New York Jets.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Yeah, I will take the over on that team total.
Give me Jets team over twenty three and a half here.
I think they're gonna put up an enormous amount of
points here on this Cowboys defense that can't stop the run,
can't stop running quarterbacks, honestly can't stop anything. Couldn't stop
a those bleed if he gave it to him. The
Cowboys giving up most yards allowed per game this season
(11:17):
four to twenty point five. Second most points per game
thirty three points per game. The Jets, they've been moving
the ball, they just jet it up like that's it.
The Jets will move the ball, but then they just
jet up the game. And that's really what the issue
is here. The Jets lost three fumbles and had thirteen
accepted penalties last week and somehow outgained Miami by one
hundred and four yards. This Jets team is actually like
(11:40):
the offense is actually really really solid, and nobody's talking
about it. The third in the NFL in rushing, they're
actually have the fifth most rushing yards in history of
zero to four teams in the NFL. Justin Fields through
two full games. Everybody wants to talk about, Oh, when
Jalen Hurts starts and finishes a game, Well, when Justin
Fields has started to finish a game, This season. He's
(12:00):
seventy three point five percent completion percentage, nine point one
yards per attempt, and two hundred and eighty six and
a half total offensive yards per game, five touchdowns, one interception,
and a one to fourteen passer rating. He's been very good.
Just don't put the ball on the ground. That's all
I ask.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
Just don't put the ball on the ground. That's all
I need, because the Cowboys aren't going to stop anything
on the ground. Justin Fields is a capable passer. He's
gonna put up a bunch of points on this Cowboys
defense that is also lasting opponents third down percentage. So
you're telling me that on third down, you're letting teams convert.
If you let this Jets offense convert on third down,
they're going to get in the end zone. Jets are
(12:36):
three and one to the over this season, and nine
and two to the over their last eleven games. I
like the over overall, but I mean, how would I
feel if I lost this over because the Cowboys offense
decided to not show up for a game. So I'm
just take the Jets.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Give me.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
The Jets team sowed over twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Three and a half all right, there you have. By
the way, should they put the ball on the ground,
Trill just not sure. Don't don't put the ball.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Put the ball on the ground.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
I tell you we wanted the ball. I couldn't tell
from the way you were saying it.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
I don't know what Aaron Gun's gonna do if they
put the.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
Don't put the ball on the ground. All right, Let's
revisit something from our hot take opening Monday show here
on the Betting Pros Network, because Andrew, we kind of
talked about, you know, the Giants riding high and the
emotion of that game, and it feels like it might
be an emotional letdown for the New York Giants as
they travel to New Orleans, who was pretty plucky against
the blow Bills. And I'm glad that Terrell is kind
(13:32):
of already on board with this because it makes me
feel even better about it. But we talked about Saints'
money line just outright, just just take it and see
how it goes. And you are still there on Thursday,
so nothing has changed for you. So for those people
who missed Monday's show, talk to them about why the
Saints on this particular week.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
Well, it's interesting because the lines have moved in favor
of the Saints. When we talked about it on Monday,
the Saints were underdogs at home, and now they are
favorite at home against the New York Giants. So it's
not by a lot. So I'm not going to mess
around with the minus one and a half. I just
want to take the Saints on the money line. That
was my pick on Monday, and I haven't jumped off that.
I already talked about rookie quarterbacks making their early starts,
(14:13):
you want to bet against them when they're playing on
the road. So this is Jackson Dart's first road start.
I don't think that offensively, the Giants can kind of
sneak up on the Saints like they did with the Chargers,
to think a little bit, because there was not a
lot of film on Jackson Dart and what he would
do in this offense. Now he's played a full game,
so I think the Saints can react to that a
little bit more game plan. Where the Chargers were kind
(14:34):
of flying the blind.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
A little bit.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
They had some preseason of Jackson Dart, but the offense
look way different, a lot more RPOs, not exactly what
they were doing with Russell Wilson under center. So I
think that works an advantage for the New Orleans Saints.
Spencer Rattler is zero to ten as a starter. He's
not a get many chances to win a game as
an NFL quarterback. This is a game that both franchises
were circling when they looked at the schedule. Hey, this
(14:57):
is where we can get a w. The Giants they
got their already, they beat the Chargers last week. I
don't know how many games Saints are gonna win this year,
but this is a game that they can win. The
market is telling us that, hey, they expect the Saints
to win this game. You want to looking at what
is the worst unit on the field. I think it's
the Giants run defense.
Speaker 4 (15:14):
It's been terrible.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
It's been terrible all year long. Thirty first in rushing EPA,
actually dead last EPA allowed against the run this year.
And what do we see the Saints unlock last week
against Buffalo the run game, Kamara running, Kendre Miller, Spencer Ratler.
Everyone's talking about how great Jackson Dart is with his legs.
Spencer Ratler can pick up yards too as a runner.
So I think there's enough working in the Saints favor
(15:36):
here that they kind of blow up the Jackson Dart out,
you know, coming out party where oh it's gonna be
the best thing ever. They just lost my Lakighbors. He's
their best player on offense. So I think if this
past game struggles, they can put pressure on Jackson Dart,
force him into some turnovers.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
I like the Saints at home, if.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Neighbors was healthy, you think they would have been still
in favor of the Giants. Do you think they would
have held on?
Speaker 4 (15:59):
I think so.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
I mean I think that he's I mean, he's so
he's such an integral part of this offense. And replacing
him with guys like Wanda Robinson and Darius Slayton, it's
just like those guys aren't need a Moversslak Neighbors when
he's healthy, I mean, he's a top five receiver talent.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Yeah, all right, keep the conversation going, everybody on our
discord betting pros dot com slash chat. It's free, it's fun,
and of course we're talking NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL player props.
All of it live with expert handicappers who can provide
you with free picks for all of the above. So
don't wait right now, go to bettingpros dot com slash
chat and join our discord. Terrell, you you have something
(16:36):
exciting to share with the rest of the class. Is
that what's going on? No? No, no, you know, just
just just.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
It's a it's a good letdown spot for designs. Just
last two seasons, rookie quarterbacks that actually won their first
start completely crap the bit.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
The next dame.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Much I mean Williams, Caleb Williams, Michael Pennix look good,
still lost, and most recently this season. JJ, yeah, I
mean he thinked that he faked an injury.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
He faked it.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
That's how bad it was. He thanked an injury. It's
not looking good from dark. It's not all right.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
It's not looking real good for the Bengals this year either,
speaking of quarterbacks that are hurt. So both the guys
have feelings about this game. But are they the same?
Let's find out. Let's talk about the Lions and Bengals
for all. Why don't you start?
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, I'm taking Lions late and a half. Like what
am I doing here? I have no idea who would
possibly be betting the Bengals in this spot after seeing
what happened on Monday night, and I mean they got
out gay by like five or the yards. Who is
betting the Bengals in this spot? I have no idea
who's putting money on the Bengals. What I will tell
(17:58):
you about the Lions though, since Week one, and they
have won and covered all three of their games, all
by twelve plus points. So they covered the line in
all these games since the started last season, They're fifteen
to five and one ats. They have the fifth highest
pressure rate in the NFL this season. And I think
that Jay Browning is gonna be like a deer in
headlights and have no idea what to do. He actually
(18:18):
might have just gotten a little old like that's just
might would have been. You know sometimes year after year,
them old joints don't get to move in as much anymore.
And I'm selling you he's he just does. He looks
like a shell, like a shell. At one point he
was a competent quarterback. He's no longer competent at all.
And to tell you, I'll add this, the Closer Eyes
Special was so great this season, undefeated, undefeated until the
(18:44):
Cincinnati Bengals that's not a team I want to get behind.
I'm sorry, I can't do nothing with that. So give
me the Detroit Lions. I'm laying ten and a half.
I'm going shock again. We had him last week at
cash and taking them again this week.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
So for the answer to the question who could possibly
like the Bengals, I present lais and gentlemen, mister Ericsson.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
Who me yes, I am taking the Bengals plus ten
and a half points. The process play, you take home underdogs.
If you're getting double digit points, that's just that's just
sports betting. NFL one on one, you take double digit
home dogs. And now I have a bunch of more
reasons why I like the Bengals in this spot. So
they have played three of their four games on the
(19:27):
road this season, they've played one home game.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
Who did they beat? Who is their quarterback?
Speaker 3 (19:31):
From the majority of that game? It was Jake Browning
against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They won that game and their
offense looked great. Because sometimes teams play better at home
than they do on the road. That's been apparent with
the Bengals with Jake Browning as their quarterback. Jake Browning
as a starting quarterback one and seven on the road,
six and two straight up at home. So I'm expecting
these Bengals offense to play significantly better in front of
(19:53):
the home crowd and not on the road. Again, one
of their biggest issues is their offensive line. Offensive lines
bad ones don't travel well. Oh yeah, they have an
advantage when you have the crowd working in your favor
to change up protections at the line of scrimmage. So
that works for the Bengals. Another thing that thought was
really interesting Zach Taylor. Since he took over as the
Bengals head coach in twenty nineteen, no team has performed
(20:14):
better against the spread off rest disadvantage than him. So
where I think the market is overvaluing all the Bengals
playing on a short week, They're going to be tired,
that's not actually been the case. Sixteen four and one
against the spread with rest disadvantage of the Bengals eighty percent.
I'm backing that type of number with double digit points
at home. Back at home for Jake Browning, where he's
(20:36):
performed at a much higher level. Then you just look
at the matchup itself. The lines are down like a
multiple starters in their secondary I don't hear anybody talking
about that. Oh who's going to cover Jamar Chase. I'm
not optimistic that these lines can stop him. So I
am backing the Bengals here because the narrative has gone
way too far calling for Jake Browning's job when he's
had two tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings at Denver
(20:57):
Broncos on the road. A lot of quarterbacks wouldn't play
well in that situation. So I'm taking the Bengals plus
ten and a half.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
All right, So the guys are on different sides of
the spectrum on this one. One will be right though.
We'll have to tune in next week to see who
it is. All right, Terrell, Let's walk through the last
of the five here and then we'll get to the
Upset Special off the Week and the SG Joey p
of the Week two. All right, So let's talk about
the Eagles and Broncos. And the number here is forty
(21:25):
three and a half. He's taking the over or the under.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Yeah, give me the under in this game under forty
three and a half. Here, it's the Vic Fangio revenge game.
He's gonna have the defense at least trying to play
a little bit better. Honestly, this is less about the
Eagles defense and this is more about the Broncos defense
and the huh whatever the heck this Eagles offense is.
Because would you believe that the Philadelphia Eagles four and
(21:53):
oh lead the league in three and out rate north
to fort of their of their drives. They're going three
and out and they are four and oh this team,
Oh my gosh, what if I say it, I'm a hater.
If I say it, I'm a hater. Jalen hurts this
offensive line. Remember when the offensive line for the Eagles
was just the best thing since sliced bread.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Oh.
Speaker 2 (22:13):
He's been pressured on forty three point seven percent of
his drop backs this season. That's fourth highest in the NFL,
only behind justin Fields, brock Perty and cam Ward of
all quarterbacks, whereas the Broncos lead the NFL NQB pressure
rate forty eight point one percent. AJ Brown is going
out there and getting crucified for demanding the ball when
(22:37):
the offense looks like crap and they have the highest
three and out rate in the entire league, and everybody's
mad at AJ Brown for demanding the ball because they're
four and oh, it's gonna wear off at some point.
You're not gonna keep winning these games. You have to
find a way to move the football and you got
to get it to their best player. And guess what,
(22:59):
you can't do that, you can't do it at all.
I predict after this game, Eagles fans will be calling
for the OC's job, as they do every time the
Eagles offense looks a little bit off because they have
no idea what they're talking about. Because they think this
team is good. They're not as good as everybody makes
them out to be. So no, no, they're not gonna
put up a bunch of points. Ultimately, this is also
(23:20):
a fade of Boknicks, who doesn't play as well at
on the road as he does at home. The numbers
drop off two hundred and fifty yards per game at
home and one ninety three per game on the road.
The touchdowns go down on the road as well, so
and the Eagles have dominated the Broncos here at home,
So I don't think that the Broncos are gonna put
up a bunch of points. Honestly, I'm not too big
(23:41):
on the Eagles defense, so I'm not gonna highlight them
as much as the Broncos offense. But I do not
think that this Eagles offense is legit. I think the
Eagles team total under is also in play. But I'll
take the full game. I will take the full game,
and if the Broncos put up fifty points on the
Eagles and make me lose my under, I'll be a
happy man. Not gonna so get me the Broncos Eagles.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
For the man of principle, A Brown would probably I
think he'd rather put up one hundred yards and have
the Eagles win.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Well, I mean I but to Terrell's point, AJ Brown's
not wrong. He's been struggle bust all year. He does
want the ball because he also knows that that also
helps facilitate everything else. The reason why Saequan could do
with sequond is because people are worried about it AJ Brown.
They're not worried about him right now. They're not worried
about anybody taking shots anywhere. And look, winning is at
(24:31):
the end of the day, what's all about. And I
love the Jalen Hurts is willing to put his ego
aside to win football games. That makes great leaders. But
to Terrell's point. If you're going to be an elite
team here and go to the Super Bowl and repeat,
you gotta start fixing some of the problems. It doesn't
belye or hide all the problems that the Eagles are
having offensively despite the fact they keep winning football games.
(24:52):
And I expect the squeaky wheel to get the grease
here this week with aj Brown, I'm taking all the
overs on him this week.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Who just be like a nine to six game Eagles win,
don't cover and then the Eagles are going around, oh yeah,
look we won another game. Everything.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
But but you know what we've seen this story a
million times too, which is when these wide receivers chure
publicly about getting the football, they typically did the football
the next week.
Speaker 4 (25:15):
Yeah, but how is he gonna the squeaky was not?
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Yeah, the squeak we might get the grease, but not
if there's a boot on it, Nan Patrick's or Tan Yeah.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
But you know what, great players make great plays. You know,
I'll always take the great wide receivers and nine targets.
Speaker 4 (25:29):
Last week, I got two catches.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
I understand, I understand, But theo Jalen Hurt's got to
play a little better.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Too, all right, ericson walks by the way, who sucks
to by the way?
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Ye? Fair, fair, all right, Erics will walk us through
your last bet of the week for Week.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Five, tamp the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus three and a half.
You bet on Baker Mayfield when he's on the road,
when he's underdog, when he's out for the count, especially
especially on Sundays when he's facing Sam Dark Like that's
when you wanted that on Baker Mayfield. Here are the
stats of the Buccaneers fifteen to five against the spread
on the road since twenty twenty three. Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers
(26:08):
are eight and seven straight up as road underdogs, twelve
and three against the spray to eighty percent as road underdogs,
and after a loss eleven and four against the spread.
That's seventy three percent. Including nine of their last ten games,
the Buccaneers have covered after a loss. So yes, I
get the optics of the matchup are tougher. Probably no
Bucky Irving, there's no Mike Evans, but Baker Mayfield shows
(26:30):
that he steps up in these situations. He can make
plays with his legs. He still has Chris Godwin, who
should be better in his second game back from his injury.
He still at Mikaebuko, who's going to be in the
Hall of Fame one day. They're already like fitting him
for his jacket. He's gonna be all set to go.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
So I want to.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
Back Buccaneers in the Baker Mayfield here because I think
that what works in Tampa's advantage is their defense matches
up pretty well with Seattle's offense. Seattle wants to run
the football like that is their identity. They don't want
to cut it loose with Sam Darnold and jaysn as
their number one wide receiver. They want to run the
football with Ken of Walker and x Sharbonnae. But the
Tampa Buccaneers like that is where they thrive. Defensively, they
(27:07):
are a great run stopping defense. If you look at
what they've done so far this year defensively seventh and
run defense efficiency this year fifth few is rushing yards
per game allowed, fewest yards after contact per attempt allowed,
third highest stuff rate three point three yards per carry
allowed on outside tackle runs, which is where Seattle has
been most effected trying to get guys like Ken Walker
out in space with the outside zone So if they
(27:29):
can halt the rushing attack for Seattle, make the offense
for the Seahawks a little bit more pass happy, one
dimensional with Jasn maybe for Sam Darnold into a turnover
or two. I think that they can cover the spread
or come out with an upset. And it was interesting
too when I was looking at my Betting pros pick
Insights on the Betting pros app, what sticks out to
me as the first thing Buccaneers. This is your most
(27:50):
profitable team over the last since twenty twenty four. So
what I've bet on the Bucks against the spread since
the beginning of last year, I'm up over five units
ninety one percent return of my investment. So that's somebody
you want to check out as part of Like the
pick insights is, Hey, what has been working for you
and for me, it's been betting on the Buccaneers against
the spread.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
It's one of the great things about the Betting pros app.
Download it Sinker Sportsbooks for free because you could track
all your bets and find out what you're actually good
at betting, and then keep betting it so you keep
winning money. Makes sense, doesn't it. Speaking of upsets, how
about we keep that rolling. The only one I got
right so far this year is what Baker Mayfield on
the road, and I'm gonna stick with that. Let's get
to the one fifty two on the plus side for
(28:31):
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the money line against the
Seattle Seahawks. I know the Seahawks are a good football team.
I know they've got some extra time to prepare and
all that jazz, and I know Bucky Irving's hurt. I
get it. I get all those things. But Baker Mayfield
finds a way. So give me Baker Mayfield for the
upset on the road in Seattle at plus money here
and then the sg JOEP of the week here. Let's go.
(28:53):
We need to get one of these. We're zero and
four to start the year. Man is not good again,
so good.
Speaker 4 (28:58):
So good on the You're great on prime time, great.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Bro.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
I'm the I'm like the opposite of Kirk Cousins. Man
like Kirk Cousins can never be good on those primetime games.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Me.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
I show up, the lights are on, I show up,
man Sunday. Should we get k then I need somebody somebody.
All right, let's see if we can do this, yere,
Let's take my upset special, and let's take it with
two things that I know to be true that I
think are pretty easy. I'm trying not to bite off
more than I could chew and just get a w here.
So as long as Baker Mayfield handles is business plus
(29:30):
one fifty two on the money line, then we take
the Lions on the minus five twenty the money line
and the Bills at minus four thirty. I don't think
the Bills are going to lose to the Patriots, and
I really don't think that the Detroit Lions are going
to lose to the Cincinnati Bengals. You put those two
things together along with Baker, you get plus two seventy.
Is it the highest parlay in the world now? But
(29:50):
is it achievable? I think it is almost three to one.
I think that's a pretty good day at the office.
So there you go hoping to get on the board,
and of course don't forget if you want to check
the board for yourself and all your bets, the best
way to do it is by using the app. Download
the Betting Pros app today, subscribe to the Betting Pros
YouTube channel, and follow us on social media as well.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Andrew Erikson and Torell. I'm Joey P.
(30:12):
We'll see you next time, Kids who Day. Thanks for
listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at
Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
slash Betting Pros
Welcome in everybody, the betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's B Joey P joe pis a PA
and this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead
to week five in the NFL for the best bets.
Andrew ericson the Undertaker is back from the wedding madness
last week, and what a job done by Debro three
and two. There you go above five hundred. That's what
(00:22):
you needed there. And of course Terrell had a very
good week four and one last week. Terrell, how does
it feel to be the man on top of the
mountain right now? Twelve and eight on the year, let's go.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah. Of course the Dallas Cowboys were the one loss,
but you know when you got that offense and forty
forty is the tie game, then you know what it is.
What it is.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
But it's all.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Good, it's all good. Four and one. I'll take it
very I'm very much feeling the pressure. I'm trying to
have a really good week two weeks in a row.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
So let's do it all right, let's kick things off here.
Don't forget to subscribe to the channel. That's we're trying
to get you to do right now, trying to get
the one hundred thousand subscribers this year, we could do
it or help so again, like this video share, subscribe
it to us against the world. So let's get on
board here, Terrel, since you are the big man from
week four, why don't you kick us off for week five? Here,
and let's start with two teams in desperation mode, the
(01:13):
Texans and the Ravens. Somebody's gonna be obsolete after this game,
and Lamar Jackson obviously banged up in this one. So
where are we going for this Texans Ravens contest?
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Yeah, for this one. I watched that game last weekend.
I saw the quit in the Ravens. I saw this
Ravens team give up, and it doesn't look like that
that's gonna be anything that's rectified in one week's time.
This is a team that's quit right now. This is
a team with the horrible defense, and now they are
without their MVP. Ravens are four and nine without Lamar Jackson,
(01:47):
averaging sixteen points six points per game. Defense is not
doing them any favors. Over the course of the season,
averaging thirty three point three points per game, most in
the NFL's second most yards in the NFL going up
against the Texans defensive front that has the number one
scoring defense. And while c J. Stroud has not looked
(02:08):
like c J. Stroud of his rookie year in a while,
he completed seventy nine percent of his passes last week
against that Titans defense. That's really bad. They put up
two points against this team last year in front of Beyonce.
I just want to clarify this. This Texans team put
up two points against the Ravens in front of Beyonce
(02:29):
at home last year. So I think this is a
great revenge bounce back spots. I know that they're still
feeling that and they're saying, hey, we want to go
out here and have a great offensive day. And sure enough,
the Ravens defense is just i mean seven to eleven
always open. So yeah, I'm gonna go with the Texans
here laying one and a half. I think that they
are going to come in and beat the Ravens. This
(02:50):
Ravens team hasn't shown me anything, especially after Lamar Jackson
went down against the Chiefs last week.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
All right, don't forget to thank Beyonce. Everybody make sure
on the way out. All right, Erickson, let's get to
you here, and let's start with your first bet of
the week. And let's start in London, where you have
Dylan Gabriel now taking on the Minnesota Vikings. So change
a QB. Everybody thought it would be after the London game. No, no, no,
So let this kid start on a neutral field. Sure,
(03:16):
why not? By the way, the best bet you can make,
By the way, we could go wrong, Terrell, my favorite bet.
I can't do it right now. I'm just waiting for
it to open up. Carson Wentz pick Dylan Gabriel, pick
over on Judkins Garries. Put those three things together. It's
my unofficial parlay of the week. But Ericson, let's talk
about the Baltimore excuse me, the Cleveland Browns here and
the Minnesota Vikings and how you see this one shaping up.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
I like the Vikings here laying the three and a
half points. I think that traditionally you always want to
bet against rookie quarterbacks making their first starts. Now, this
isn't technically a road start for Dylan Gabriel, but it
kind of is because it's not at home, and that's
really the big thing here.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Is.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
The Cleveland Browns are a very different team when they're
not playing in Cleveland, especially when they play on the
their last seven road games, they're zero and seven against
is Bread on the road. They've played two road games
this year, two games at home. They've been blown out
in both of the road games that they've played this season,
and they've kept both home games very very close. The
defense plays significantly better when they're playing in Cleveland. I
think that makes a big difference against the Minnesota Vikings.
(04:18):
Carson Wentz not the best quarterback in the world, but
can even better than Dylan Gabriel by a little bit
more than a field goal, I think. So Brian Flores
is no easy test for any quarterback, let alone a
rookie quarterback making his first start in the NFL. So
the Browns are down on their offensive line. That's a
big issue for them. So I'm not optimistic about Gabriel
(04:39):
making this first start a memorable one. At least four
Browns fans across the nation. So just the stats when
it comes to rookie quarterbacks. So this is from visen
if you look at them when they make their early
season start, So technically this is an early season start,
but it's Gabriel's first start six twenty six and one
straight up twelve to twenty and one against the spread.
That's thirty six percent in the last twenty four games
(05:02):
weeks one through three, twenty nine to twelve towards the under. Again,
that's why there's this total for this game is very,
very low because we're not expecting a lot of points
from either sides and rookie quarterbacks, specifically on the road.
When you want to back a rookie quarterback like last
week Jackson dart Well who's at home, like that makes
a significant difference. But they're not playing at home. It's
much tougher for these rookies to cover the numbers, so
(05:22):
especially when they're small road dogs forty two percent against
the spread when catching plus four and a half or
fewer points. So I'm going to be rolling with the
Minnesota Viking here to bounce back after the loss last
week against the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
All Right, it could be memorable, Andrew, just maybe not
in a good way. I mean, memorable is the very
eye of the beholder. Term Terrell. Let's go back to
you here. Let's talk about the Commanders. Obviously coming off
a tough game last week, So what do you see
the Commander's doing in a week five?
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yeah, I think it is still going to be a
little bit of sub sledding for the Commanders here. I'm
taking them on the under of their team total in
this game. I don't think that they're going to get
over twenty four points here, So give me under twenty
three and a half for this Commanders team. I think
it's going to be a struggle one because you're going
up against a Chargers defense that won flying around the ball.
(06:15):
You have Jaydon Daniels in this Commander's team who are
or are not good on the road. In fact, the offense
just hasn't looked the same with Jye Daniels, and they
haven't gotten over this line with Jayan Daniels in the
helm in the two games he actually played in this season.
Marcus Mariota, however, to and oh has nothing to do
with anything, But I just want to say Jane Danielson's
line zho and two marks Mario too and oh. It
(06:36):
looks like Daniels is going to play here. I think
he's still really really beat up in this spot. Jim
Harball after a loss, really really good I think that
he's gonna go. And the defense still played really well
for them. It was the fact that they couldn't find
any offense and the Joe All injury and the injuries
along the offensive line really really threw off Herbert and
so if they make the adjustments over the week, the
offense could be better. But I don't need the Chargers
(06:56):
offense to be better. I just need the defense to
stay locked in as they've been all year, and so
I think that they're going to continue to keep this going.
A cross country road spot for this Commander's team as well.
I think this is a nice bounce back for the Chargers,
and I think it's just going to be in terms
of points. So hey, maybe this is a low scoring
game and Daniels has some Daniels magic at the end
of the game. I want nothing to do with the side.
(07:16):
Give me the under on the team total for the Commanders.
I don't think that they're going to put up over twenty,
So give me under twenty three and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
All right, Carolina and Miami are going to lock up.
And Andrew Rickson, if he loves one thing, I know
he loves to bet Carolina Panther football. I hope someday
they let you bang the drum down there, kid, That's
what I want you to be able to do. So
bang the drums for this game here, and let's go
Andrew Rickson.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Yeah, I really thought I really wanted to bet on
the Carolina Panthers here against the spread and probably just
to win out right. And I know that they click
they classify for the closed your eyespecially because they got
blown out by the Patriots last week and points at home.
That being said, Miami is a small favorite here, and
Miami has a track record of winning against bad teams
(07:59):
when they're so that's the only thing that's shying me
away from just betting the sides in this game, because
I'm just not confident enough with Carolina that they're not
a good team. That they just aren't. I don't think
that I'm going out on a limb saying that. But
they do tend to play better at home, and the
Miami Dolphins tend to play better against bad teams. So
what happens when you mix us all together? You get Hey,
(08:21):
I think these offenses can probably score against two of
the worst defenses in the NFL, So I'm going over
forty three and a half points. I think this total
is very, very low when you're looking at two of
the worst defenses in the NFL. Miami's defense ranks thirty
first and pass defensive efficiency. I think it's going to
create opportunities for Bryce Young Tetro McMillan to create splash
plays down the field. The Panthers they can't stop the
(08:42):
run and they can't put pressure on quarterbacks. So if
Tuo has time in the pocket, he can get it
to Jayla Wattle Leak Washington one eight chance should have
a monster game running the football against the Carolina Panthers
defense that can't stop the run. Seven of the panthers
last eight games at home have gone over the total
points line. So I will take the over here. Bet
on both these teams offenses against these terrible defenses.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
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Let's get to number three on the list for the
gentlemen today, and let's start with Jets. Jets. Jets, Jets
(10:48):
take it on the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense thrella is
the team that keeps on given and the team total
is very, very tempting here for the New York Jets.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Yeah, I will take the over on that team total.
Give me Jets team over twenty three and a half here.
I think they're gonna put up an enormous amount of
points here on this Cowboys defense that can't stop the run,
can't stop running quarterbacks, honestly can't stop anything. Couldn't stop
a those bleed if he gave it to him. The
Cowboys giving up most yards allowed per game this season
(11:17):
four to twenty point five. Second most points per game
thirty three points per game. The Jets, they've been moving
the ball, they just jet it up like that's it.
The Jets will move the ball, but then they just
jet up the game. And that's really what the issue
is here. The Jets lost three fumbles and had thirteen
accepted penalties last week and somehow outgained Miami by one
hundred and four yards. This Jets team is actually like
(11:40):
the offense is actually really really solid, and nobody's talking
about it. The third in the NFL in rushing, they're
actually have the fifth most rushing yards in history of
zero to four teams in the NFL. Justin Fields through
two full games. Everybody wants to talk about, Oh, when
Jalen Hurts starts and finishes a game, Well, when Justin
Fields has started to finish a game, This season. He's
(12:00):
seventy three point five percent completion percentage, nine point one
yards per attempt, and two hundred and eighty six and
a half total offensive yards per game, five touchdowns, one interception,
and a one to fourteen passer rating. He's been very good.
Just don't put the ball on the ground. That's all
I ask.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
Just don't put the ball on the ground. That's all
I need, because the Cowboys aren't going to stop anything
on the ground. Justin Fields is a capable passer. He's
gonna put up a bunch of points on this Cowboys
defense that is also lasting opponents third down percentage. So
you're telling me that on third down, you're letting teams convert.
If you let this Jets offense convert on third down,
they're going to get in the end zone. Jets are
(12:36):
three and one to the over this season, and nine
and two to the over their last eleven games. I
like the over overall, but I mean, how would I
feel if I lost this over because the Cowboys offense
decided to not show up for a game. So I'm
just take the Jets.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Give me.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
The Jets team sowed over twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Three and a half all right, there you have. By
the way, should they put the ball on the ground,
Trill just not sure. Don't don't put the ball.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Put the ball on the ground.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
I tell you we wanted the ball. I couldn't tell
from the way you were saying it.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
I don't know what Aaron Gun's gonna do if they
put the.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
Don't put the ball on the ground. All right, Let's
revisit something from our hot take opening Monday show here
on the Betting Pros Network, because Andrew, we kind of
talked about, you know, the Giants riding high and the
emotion of that game, and it feels like it might
be an emotional letdown for the New York Giants as
they travel to New Orleans, who was pretty plucky against
the blow Bills. And I'm glad that Terrell is kind
(13:32):
of already on board with this because it makes me
feel even better about it. But we talked about Saints'
money line just outright, just just take it and see
how it goes. And you are still there on Thursday,
so nothing has changed for you. So for those people
who missed Monday's show, talk to them about why the
Saints on this particular week.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
Well, it's interesting because the lines have moved in favor
of the Saints. When we talked about it on Monday,
the Saints were underdogs at home, and now they are
favorite at home against the New York Giants. So it's
not by a lot. So I'm not going to mess
around with the minus one and a half. I just
want to take the Saints on the money line. That
was my pick on Monday, and I haven't jumped off that.
I already talked about rookie quarterbacks making their early starts,
(14:13):
you want to bet against them when they're playing on
the road. So this is Jackson Dart's first road start.
I don't think that offensively, the Giants can kind of
sneak up on the Saints like they did with the Chargers,
to think a little bit, because there was not a
lot of film on Jackson Dart and what he would
do in this offense. Now he's played a full game,
so I think the Saints can react to that a
little bit more game plan. Where the Chargers were kind
(14:34):
of flying the blind.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
A little bit.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
They had some preseason of Jackson Dart, but the offense
look way different, a lot more RPOs, not exactly what
they were doing with Russell Wilson under center. So I
think that works an advantage for the New Orleans Saints.
Spencer Rattler is zero to ten as a starter. He's
not a get many chances to win a game as
an NFL quarterback. This is a game that both franchises
were circling when they looked at the schedule. Hey, this
(14:57):
is where we can get a w. The Giants they
got their already, they beat the Chargers last week. I
don't know how many games Saints are gonna win this year,
but this is a game that they can win. The
market is telling us that, hey, they expect the Saints
to win this game. You want to looking at what
is the worst unit on the field. I think it's
the Giants run defense.
Speaker 4 (15:14):
It's been terrible.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
It's been terrible all year long. Thirty first in rushing EPA,
actually dead last EPA allowed against the run this year.
And what do we see the Saints unlock last week
against Buffalo the run game, Kamara running, Kendre Miller, Spencer Ratler.
Everyone's talking about how great Jackson Dart is with his legs.
Spencer Ratler can pick up yards too as a runner.
So I think there's enough working in the Saints favor
(15:36):
here that they kind of blow up the Jackson Dart out,
you know, coming out party where oh it's gonna be
the best thing ever. They just lost my Lakighbors. He's
their best player on offense. So I think if this
past game struggles, they can put pressure on Jackson Dart,
force him into some turnovers.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
I like the Saints at home, if.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Neighbors was healthy, you think they would have been still
in favor of the Giants. Do you think they would
have held on?
Speaker 4 (15:59):
I think so.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
I mean I think that he's I mean, he's so
he's such an integral part of this offense. And replacing
him with guys like Wanda Robinson and Darius Slayton, it's
just like those guys aren't need a Moversslak Neighbors when
he's healthy, I mean, he's a top five receiver talent.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Yeah, all right, keep the conversation going, everybody on our
discord betting pros dot com slash chat. It's free, it's fun,
and of course we're talking NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL player props.
All of it live with expert handicappers who can provide
you with free picks for all of the above. So
don't wait right now, go to bettingpros dot com slash
chat and join our discord. Terrell, you you have something
(16:36):
exciting to share with the rest of the class. Is
that what's going on? No? No, no, you know, just
just just.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
It's a it's a good letdown spot for designs. Just
last two seasons, rookie quarterbacks that actually won their first
start completely crap the bit.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
The next dame.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Much I mean Williams, Caleb Williams, Michael Pennix look good,
still lost, and most recently this season. JJ, yeah, I
mean he thinked that he faked an injury.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
He faked it.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
That's how bad it was. He thanked an injury. It's
not looking good from dark. It's not all right.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
It's not looking real good for the Bengals this year either,
speaking of quarterbacks that are hurt. So both the guys
have feelings about this game. But are they the same?
Let's find out. Let's talk about the Lions and Bengals
for all. Why don't you start?
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, I'm taking Lions late and a half. Like what
am I doing here? I have no idea who would
possibly be betting the Bengals in this spot after seeing
what happened on Monday night, and I mean they got
out gay by like five or the yards. Who is
betting the Bengals in this spot? I have no idea
who's putting money on the Bengals. What I will tell
(17:58):
you about the Lions though, since Week one, and they
have won and covered all three of their games, all
by twelve plus points. So they covered the line in
all these games since the started last season, They're fifteen
to five and one ats. They have the fifth highest
pressure rate in the NFL this season. And I think
that Jay Browning is gonna be like a deer in
headlights and have no idea what to do. He actually
(18:18):
might have just gotten a little old like that's just
might would have been. You know sometimes year after year,
them old joints don't get to move in as much anymore.
And I'm selling you he's he just does. He looks
like a shell, like a shell. At one point he
was a competent quarterback. He's no longer competent at all.
And to tell you, I'll add this, the Closer Eyes
Special was so great this season, undefeated, undefeated until the
(18:44):
Cincinnati Bengals that's not a team I want to get behind.
I'm sorry, I can't do nothing with that. So give
me the Detroit Lions. I'm laying ten and a half.
I'm going shock again. We had him last week at
cash and taking them again this week.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
So for the answer to the question who could possibly
like the Bengals, I present lais and gentlemen, mister Ericsson.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
Who me yes, I am taking the Bengals plus ten
and a half points. The process play, you take home underdogs.
If you're getting double digit points, that's just that's just
sports betting. NFL one on one, you take double digit
home dogs. And now I have a bunch of more
reasons why I like the Bengals in this spot. So
they have played three of their four games on the
(19:27):
road this season, they've played one home game.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
Who did they beat? Who is their quarterback?
Speaker 3 (19:31):
From the majority of that game? It was Jake Browning
against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They won that game and their
offense looked great. Because sometimes teams play better at home
than they do on the road. That's been apparent with
the Bengals with Jake Browning as their quarterback. Jake Browning
as a starting quarterback one and seven on the road,
six and two straight up at home. So I'm expecting
these Bengals offense to play significantly better in front of
(19:53):
the home crowd and not on the road. Again, one
of their biggest issues is their offensive line. Offensive lines
bad ones don't travel well. Oh yeah, they have an
advantage when you have the crowd working in your favor
to change up protections at the line of scrimmage. So
that works for the Bengals. Another thing that thought was
really interesting Zach Taylor. Since he took over as the
Bengals head coach in twenty nineteen, no team has performed
(20:14):
better against the spread off rest disadvantage than him. So
where I think the market is overvaluing all the Bengals
playing on a short week, They're going to be tired,
that's not actually been the case. Sixteen four and one
against the spread with rest disadvantage of the Bengals eighty percent.
I'm backing that type of number with double digit points
at home. Back at home for Jake Browning, where he's
(20:36):
performed at a much higher level. Then you just look
at the matchup itself. The lines are down like a
multiple starters in their secondary I don't hear anybody talking
about that. Oh who's going to cover Jamar Chase. I'm
not optimistic that these lines can stop him. So I
am backing the Bengals here because the narrative has gone
way too far calling for Jake Browning's job when he's
had two tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings at Denver
(20:57):
Broncos on the road. A lot of quarterbacks wouldn't play
well in that situation. So I'm taking the Bengals plus
ten and a half.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
All right, So the guys are on different sides of
the spectrum on this one. One will be right though.
We'll have to tune in next week to see who
it is. All right, Terrell, Let's walk through the last
of the five here and then we'll get to the
Upset Special off the Week and the SG Joey p
of the Week two. All right, So let's talk about
the Eagles and Broncos. And the number here is forty
(21:25):
three and a half. He's taking the over or the under.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Yeah, give me the under in this game under forty
three and a half. Here, it's the Vic Fangio revenge game.
He's gonna have the defense at least trying to play
a little bit better. Honestly, this is less about the
Eagles defense and this is more about the Broncos defense
and the huh whatever the heck this Eagles offense is.
Because would you believe that the Philadelphia Eagles four and
(21:53):
oh lead the league in three and out rate north
to fort of their of their drives. They're going three
and out and they are four and oh this team,
Oh my gosh, what if I say it, I'm a hater.
If I say it, I'm a hater. Jalen hurts this
offensive line. Remember when the offensive line for the Eagles
was just the best thing since sliced bread.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Oh.
Speaker 2 (22:13):
He's been pressured on forty three point seven percent of
his drop backs this season. That's fourth highest in the NFL,
only behind justin Fields, brock Perty and cam Ward of
all quarterbacks, whereas the Broncos lead the NFL NQB pressure
rate forty eight point one percent. AJ Brown is going
out there and getting crucified for demanding the ball when
(22:37):
the offense looks like crap and they have the highest
three and out rate in the entire league, and everybody's
mad at AJ Brown for demanding the ball because they're
four and oh, it's gonna wear off at some point.
You're not gonna keep winning these games. You have to
find a way to move the football and you got
to get it to their best player. And guess what,
(22:59):
you can't do that, you can't do it at all.
I predict after this game, Eagles fans will be calling
for the OC's job, as they do every time the
Eagles offense looks a little bit off because they have
no idea what they're talking about. Because they think this
team is good. They're not as good as everybody makes
them out to be. So no, no, they're not gonna
put up a bunch of points. Ultimately, this is also
(23:20):
a fade of Boknicks, who doesn't play as well at
on the road as he does at home. The numbers
drop off two hundred and fifty yards per game at
home and one ninety three per game on the road.
The touchdowns go down on the road as well, so
and the Eagles have dominated the Broncos here at home,
So I don't think that the Broncos are gonna put
up a bunch of points. Honestly, I'm not too big
(23:41):
on the Eagles defense, so I'm not gonna highlight them
as much as the Broncos offense. But I do not
think that this Eagles offense is legit. I think the
Eagles team total under is also in play. But I'll
take the full game. I will take the full game,
and if the Broncos put up fifty points on the
Eagles and make me lose my under, I'll be a
happy man. Not gonna so get me the Broncos Eagles.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
For the man of principle, A Brown would probably I
think he'd rather put up one hundred yards and have
the Eagles win.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Well, I mean I but to Terrell's point, AJ Brown's
not wrong. He's been struggle bust all year. He does
want the ball because he also knows that that also
helps facilitate everything else. The reason why Saequan could do
with sequond is because people are worried about it AJ Brown.
They're not worried about him right now. They're not worried
about anybody taking shots anywhere. And look, winning is at
(24:31):
the end of the day, what's all about. And I
love the Jalen Hurts is willing to put his ego
aside to win football games. That makes great leaders. But
to Terrell's point. If you're going to be an elite
team here and go to the Super Bowl and repeat,
you gotta start fixing some of the problems. It doesn't
belye or hide all the problems that the Eagles are
having offensively despite the fact they keep winning football games.
(24:52):
And I expect the squeaky wheel to get the grease
here this week with aj Brown, I'm taking all the
overs on him this week.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Who just be like a nine to six game Eagles win,
don't cover and then the Eagles are going around, oh yeah,
look we won another game. Everything.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
But but you know what we've seen this story a
million times too, which is when these wide receivers chure
publicly about getting the football, they typically did the football
the next week.
Speaker 4 (25:15):
Yeah, but how is he gonna the squeaky was not?
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Yeah, the squeak we might get the grease, but not
if there's a boot on it, Nan Patrick's or Tan Yeah.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
But you know what, great players make great plays. You know,
I'll always take the great wide receivers and nine targets.
Speaker 4 (25:29):
Last week, I got two catches.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
I understand, I understand, But theo Jalen Hurt's got to
play a little better.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Too, all right, ericson walks by the way, who sucks
to by the way?
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Ye? Fair, fair, all right, Erics will walk us through
your last bet of the week for Week.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Five, tamp the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus three and a half.
You bet on Baker Mayfield when he's on the road,
when he's underdog, when he's out for the count, especially
especially on Sundays when he's facing Sam Dark Like that's
when you wanted that on Baker Mayfield. Here are the
stats of the Buccaneers fifteen to five against the spread
on the road since twenty twenty three. Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers
(26:08):
are eight and seven straight up as road underdogs, twelve
and three against the spray to eighty percent as road underdogs,
and after a loss eleven and four against the spread.
That's seventy three percent. Including nine of their last ten games,
the Buccaneers have covered after a loss. So yes, I
get the optics of the matchup are tougher. Probably no
Bucky Irving, there's no Mike Evans, but Baker Mayfield shows
(26:30):
that he steps up in these situations. He can make
plays with his legs. He still has Chris Godwin, who
should be better in his second game back from his injury.
He still at Mikaebuko, who's going to be in the
Hall of Fame one day. They're already like fitting him
for his jacket. He's gonna be all set to go.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
So I want to.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
Back Buccaneers in the Baker Mayfield here because I think
that what works in Tampa's advantage is their defense matches
up pretty well with Seattle's offense. Seattle wants to run
the football like that is their identity. They don't want
to cut it loose with Sam Darnold and jaysn as
their number one wide receiver. They want to run the
football with Ken of Walker and x Sharbonnae. But the
Tampa Buccaneers like that is where they thrive. Defensively, they
(27:07):
are a great run stopping defense. If you look at
what they've done so far this year defensively seventh and
run defense efficiency this year fifth few is rushing yards
per game allowed, fewest yards after contact per attempt allowed,
third highest stuff rate three point three yards per carry
allowed on outside tackle runs, which is where Seattle has
been most effected trying to get guys like Ken Walker
out in space with the outside zone So if they
(27:29):
can halt the rushing attack for Seattle, make the offense
for the Seahawks a little bit more pass happy, one
dimensional with Jasn maybe for Sam Darnold into a turnover
or two. I think that they can cover the spread
or come out with an upset. And it was interesting
too when I was looking at my Betting pros pick
Insights on the Betting pros app, what sticks out to
me as the first thing Buccaneers. This is your most
(27:50):
profitable team over the last since twenty twenty four. So
what I've bet on the Bucks against the spread since
the beginning of last year, I'm up over five units
ninety one percent return of my investment. So that's somebody
you want to check out as part of Like the
pick insights is, Hey, what has been working for you
and for me, it's been betting on the Buccaneers against
the spread.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
It's one of the great things about the Betting pros app.
Download it Sinker Sportsbooks for free because you could track
all your bets and find out what you're actually good
at betting, and then keep betting it so you keep
winning money. Makes sense, doesn't it. Speaking of upsets, how
about we keep that rolling. The only one I got
right so far this year is what Baker Mayfield on
the road, and I'm gonna stick with that. Let's get
to the one fifty two on the plus side for
(28:31):
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the money line against the
Seattle Seahawks. I know the Seahawks are a good football team.
I know they've got some extra time to prepare and
all that jazz, and I know Bucky Irving's hurt. I
get it. I get all those things. But Baker Mayfield
finds a way. So give me Baker Mayfield for the
upset on the road in Seattle at plus money here
and then the sg JOEP of the week here. Let's go.
(28:53):
We need to get one of these. We're zero and
four to start the year. Man is not good again,
so good.
Speaker 4 (28:58):
So good on the You're great on prime time, great.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Bro.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
I'm the I'm like the opposite of Kirk Cousins. Man
like Kirk Cousins can never be good on those primetime games.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Me.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
I show up, the lights are on, I show up,
man Sunday. Should we get k then I need somebody somebody.
All right, let's see if we can do this, yere,
Let's take my upset special, and let's take it with
two things that I know to be true that I
think are pretty easy. I'm trying not to bite off
more than I could chew and just get a w here.
So as long as Baker Mayfield handles is business plus
(29:30):
one fifty two on the money line, then we take
the Lions on the minus five twenty the money line
and the Bills at minus four thirty. I don't think
the Bills are going to lose to the Patriots, and
I really don't think that the Detroit Lions are going
to lose to the Cincinnati Bengals. You put those two
things together along with Baker, you get plus two seventy.
Is it the highest parlay in the world now? But
(29:50):
is it achievable? I think it is almost three to one.
I think that's a pretty good day at the office.
So there you go hoping to get on the board,
and of course don't forget if you want to check
the board for yourself and all your bets, the best
way to do it is by using the app. Download
the Betting Pros app today, subscribe to the Betting Pros
YouTube channel, and follow us on social media as well.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Andrew Erikson and Torell. I'm Joey P.
(30:12):
We'll see you next time, Kids who Day. Thanks for
listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at
Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
slash Betting Pros
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