October 4, 2025 • 26 mins
Whether it's shooting for the stars or digging in the dirt, profit is out there! Join Joe Pisapia, Andrew Erickson, and Chris Welsh for their best NFL prop bets for Week 5.
Will the Arizona Cardinals hold Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard under 69.5 rushing yards? Can Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan clear 56.5 receiving yards against a banged-up Miami Dolphins' secondary? Plus, does Cleveland Browns WR Isaiah Bond go over 27.5 receiving yards when called upon against the Minnesota Vikings in London?
The Pros search high and low for their next payouts!
Timestamps (may be off due to ads):
Intro - 0:00:00
Tony Pollard Under 69.5 Rushing Yards - 0:01:21
Bo Nix Over 15.5 Rushing Yards - 0:03:10
Omarion Hampton Over 65.5 Rushing Yards - 0:04:09
DeVonta Smith Over 45.5 Receiving Yards - 0:06:24
Hard Rock Bet - 0:07:57
Tetairoa McMillan Over 56.5 Receiving Yards - 0:09:32
Jakobi Meyers Over 54.5 Receiving Yards - 0:10:46
BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:12:38
Justin Fields Over 187.5 Passing Yards - 0:13:05
Jordan Mason under 1.5 Receptions - 0:15:14
Isaiah Bond Over 27.5 Receiving Yards - 0:16:59
Ja’Marr Chase Over 62.5 Receiving Yards - 0:19:39
BettingPros Touchdown Scorer Report - 0:21:42
Garrett Wilson (+130) & Emeka Egbuka (+135) Anytime TDs - 0:22:04
Tetairoa McMillan (+140) & Michael Pittman Jr. (+190) Anytime TDs - 0:22:59
Ja’Marr Chase (+160) & Darren Waller (+225) Anytime TDs - 0:25:02
Outro - 0:26:01
Helpful Links:
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets, and this's be Joey p joe Pizabia and
this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to
the props for week five in the NFL, and we're
gonna call some touchdowns as well. But of course let
me bring in before we can begin. My two boys here,
mister Welsh and mister ericson the Undertaker, Andrew, the best
(00:21):
pick you've made all year is picking Pat Fitzmorris to
pick for you last week, four and one for FITZI
last week on the program. Gotta love that pinch hit,
So Andrew, it's time to have follow that up. Are
you prepared to follow up Fitzie?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Well, I haven't read Fitz's prop article yet that he
posts every week, so I don't feel as a confident
making my picks without having that to my side. But again,
just a reason to go check that article out that
Fitz does every single week, because the guy knows his stuff.
So hopefully I can at least finish three and two
this week.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Speaking of three and two, Welsh was three and two
last week, and just looking through the betting pros app
I am. Let's see plus fifty three three percent ROI
seven and five last week. So let's go with a
sixty three dollars profit there on the on the betting pros.
This is why you follow us, folks. You try to
get in there. Look, we're gonna have some bad weeks.
We're gonna have some good weeks. This is the nature
of the beast. And also it comes to touchdown calls
(01:15):
fifty percent on the year. Right here, just got my
fourth one last year here on the show. We each
picked two at the end. Make sure you stick around. Welsh,
you're up first today for the prop. So let's talk
about yours. And you're gonna begin with Tony Pollard and
the number of sixty nine and a half. So which
direction are you going?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
We are gonna nicely go under. We're gonna kick it
off with it under. This was a smash under. I'll
tell you right now. Line's already moving line. Since I
took it, the line has moved on to sixty seven.
People can't smash that number enough. They cannot. The Cardinals,
which Tony Poller is going up against. Cardinals are currently
ninth in yards allowed on the ground of the NFL,
(01:52):
so they're giving up the ninth least rushing yards. Through
four games, only one running back has eclipsed sixty nine yards,
and that was Walker Pollard has only hit this in
one game this year, while seeing his carries decrease three
straight weeks. We've got the looming spear situation. PFF projections
around fifty eight. Fantasy prose, I think is like around
(02:14):
sixty one. Everything is under this number. We are just
seeing the steady decline. There was a lot of just
volume talk around Tony Pollard, but inefficiency as well, so
you know, defensively, the Cardinals are in a good spot.
I think with the decreased carries in general, I love
this under, and you know me, I don't love unders,
and I'm going to start the show with one, but
(02:35):
I instantly smash this one. It's going to keep going down.
I probably play it to sixty five. I think projections
or would even tell you to go a little bit more,
but my comfort level would be there. So sixty nine
point five is what I get to lock in, and
you can even check that over. I'm betting pros because
that is where I have got that. So under is
my first play of the day.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Boys, shout out to everybody you watch on YouTube. Also,
we just hit seventy thousand subscribers. We appreciate you. If
you walk on YouTube, subscribe or even if you're not watching,
go subscribe anyway to the feed here. Again, we're trying
to get to one hundred thousand, so we just keep
on climbing. We appreciate everybody who's watching on the YouTube.
All right, Andrew Ericson, let's get you our first pick
of Week five in.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
I am not going with an under, but it's a
trend that's to do with underdog, So I'm going to
go with Bonnicks going over fifteen and a half rushing yards.
And the trend that I was alluding to was Bonnicks
runs significantly more when his team is losing and he's
an underdog in the specific matchup. So in the last
eleven games where the Broncos have been underdogs entering the contest,
he's gone over fifteen and a half rushing yards in
(03:35):
nine of those contests. He's gone over this number straight
up in three of his four games this season, with
the one game that he didn't go over was last
week when they were heavy favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals,
so when they're protecting a comfortable lead, Bonnicks doesn't run.
But against the Philadelphia Eagles, where maybe they're going to
be in more trailing game, script, I expect Bonnicks to
(03:56):
use his leg. So I'm gonna go over on fifteen
and a half rushing yards for the Broncos quarter.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
All right, So Andrew Erickson starting with an over. Welsh
starting with an under. What's happening here upside down is
officially here upon us? Welsh walk me through pick number
two for week five. It has to do with Omari
and Hampton's rushing yards. Now, look, we've got not one
but two tackles out now for the Chargers. We know
we lost Slater here at the beginning of the year.
Now Joe all dealing with a high ankle sprain. So
(04:21):
how does that affect Omary and Hampton for you this week?
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Well, I mean volume is the thing that pushes us
in the positive. For him, I'd also say this is
outside of just my notes, but explosive plays. So Marian
Hampton obviously can get He had like a hundred explosive yards.
Twenty five percent percentage of explosive yards come into play
for him. So I mean like he can make the
big plays, but obviously you're gonna have like a general
worry about some of the offensive line coming down. But
(04:45):
as a starter last week, he's on ninety two percent
of the team's rush attempts and he played eighty seven
point five percent of the snaps. By the way, the
line we're looking at here for Amarion Hampton is rushing
yards at sixty five point five. This is slowly creeping.
It was at sixty four point five, which, by the way,
our friends at hard Rock Bet have the best line
had that it is slowly moving up, so go and
check that out. He averaged six point six seven yards
(05:08):
before contact last week, so that could speak a little
bit to the offensive line worry. Like obviously the explosive
play plays into that a bit, but you're like, wow,
six point sixty seven that's elite. That's the offensive line
doing work. If they lose that, that's a little bit
of a negative. Well, he also averaged four yards over
four yards after contact, so big play there, whether it's
(05:29):
the offensive line helping out or him breaking away commanders.
So far this year, they're giving up on average twenty
four carries to running backs. And remember ninety two percent
of the team's rush attempts went to Hampton last week, which,
by the way, might be a rush attempt bet for
you guys. And eighty one yards on average are giving
up to running backs. With three of the first four
games this season, running backs have beat this rushing projection.
(05:52):
The projected numbers whether you go to I always like
to cite PFF versus US as well. I like both
of ours. Fantasy Pro's projection a high number, and the
PFF number is also well over this. Fantasy Pro's aggregate
projection is around eighty one yards rushing. So get on
this early while you can, if you believe it. There
obviously could be some worries about the offensive line, but
(06:14):
this is a guy that breaks tackles, make explosive plays,
and has all of the team's usage. So I'm Marion
Hampton over sixty five point five rushing yards.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Lock it up for number two for Andrew Erickson. We're
gonna go to Philadelphia and the Eagles here, and the
Eagles offense has been a little struggle bus despite the
fact that there're four and oh we had a big
conversation just yesterday on the program for the best bets.
Go check that out. To Roll had a really good diatribe,
and that's a way I can describe it. It's a diatribe.
So if you don't know what that word is, go
look it up. Learn something. Google machines here to help you.
(06:43):
So you think you about to crack the code here
potentially for a wager, Andrew, Let's talk about DeVonta Smith
here why he could have a big day against the
Denver Broncos. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
I prefer a half glass full when I'm looking at
the Eagles because it really depends on which half you're
looking at, if their passing game is doing anything or not.
So devant Just Smith is going to go over forty
five and a half receiving yards. I just based on
the matchup Patrick Stertan, we know will lock up the
number one wide receiver on the opposing offense, and that's
going to be a J.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
Brown.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
So even though he's gonna be throwing his arms up
looking for flags complaining he's not getting the football, well,
DeVante Smith's gonna have the better matchup on paper from
the slot, so I think he's gonna see more targets
in volume in the specific matchup. You just look at
the number two receivers that have faced the Denver Broncos.
They've been much more productive than the number one is
because of that really tough matchup. So although I usually
am betting unders when it comes to DeVonta Smith, when
(07:32):
aj Brown Dallas got it are healthy, Especially when it
comes to his receptions prop. I think that he can
be efficient with the more favorable matchup with an easier
cornerback to go over forty five and a half receiving yards,
which is his lowest receiving yards prop since the beginning
of last season. So it's really been depressed because of
how inconsistent Egos office has been. But given the matchup,
I really think that Smith can fly over this pretty easy.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
All right, So DeVante Smith we are in on. Also
the other thing we're in on hard Rock Bet, and
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in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Let's get to number
three on the list here, and well, we got a
rookie wide receiver that you're tea and up. So let's
talk about tech. McMillan.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Well, don't call him tech, call hin Tete Rowers. Mom's
gonna come after you.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
Well, she knows where I live. Listen, missus McMillan, I'm
waiting for you. Okay, Well, my nd gets.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Her fifty connects the boy fifty six point five as
the receiving yard prop this week, and I like it.
Dolphins rank thirty two of thirty two in cover grades
over on p If you're listening at home, that's not good. Also, PFF,
I love this that Tetoro McMillan. It has on average
five point two yards per route run against man coverage,
(10:11):
which is first in the NFL for wide receivers. They're
going up against the Miami defense that runs man coverage
thirty one almost thirty two percent of the time, which
is tenth most in the NFL. McMillan has also beat
this receiving line in three or four matchups this season.
Projected numbers, they're in favor whether across both sites. You're
looking at your over sixty yards on most places that
(10:32):
I have looked, so you're getting a little bit of
extra juice there. This matchup works really well. They've got
to get him the ball. So Tetoroa McMillan fifty six
point five over receiving yards is bet number three, all right.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
So bet number three in the books for the Welsh.
Let's get to bet number three here for Andrew Erickson Ericson.
Let's talk about Jacobe Meyers. The number for him is
fifty four and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
You want to go over or under I'm gonna go
over for Jigoti Myers is the nimam I like to
get him.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I think workshop that more.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
I just I don't know what else he could do,
but that works work.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
Don't worry.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
I have better names and fun puns coming up.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
So stay tuned. Oh oh good, everybody, everybody get excited.
All right, go ahead, boy. You know, I've never been
a guy who has no kids yet who has more
dad jokes than Andrew Erickson. I just want to point
that out always, for years now, Andrew Erickson has come
to the shows with the dad jokes. Go ahead, talk
about the bed.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
So the Colts lost their number one cornerback from the slot,
Kenny Moore a couple of weeks ago, and they have
been ripped up from the slot. Second most Fantasy points
per game to slot receivers. That's what Jacoby Myers predominantly
runs his routes. He posted a really strong target share
last week and week four thirty three percent. Also saw
fifty nine percent of the team's air yards, and in fact,
(11:47):
he was the targeted receiver on not one, not two,
but all three of Genosmith's interceptions last week. So you
know that Geno Smith is not afraid to just try
to jam targets to Jacoby Myers. He's been over fifty
four and have receiving yards in three of his four
games already this season. And if those last targets not
get intercepted Chacle, Myers would probably be four for four
on his receiving arts. Prop Rock Bowers is still kind
(12:10):
of banged up dealing with this knee injury. He's still
struggling with this knee brace. So I think that means
Myers is going to be the number one pass catcher
in a really favorable matchup.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
So yeah, give me the over. Speaking of Myers too,
just want to point out I think my favorite parlay
of the week is going to be an interception one
and you and I talked about it yesterday. I'd like
to add to it. I want to put Geno Smith
along with Carson Wentz and Dylan Gabriel. It just all
the picks. Pick City. That's the theme of the part.
Like Pixity Parlay, Pick City, parlay Baby, We're coming for
you all right. Speaking of prop bets too, again, prop
(12:40):
bet cheet sheets there for you for all of your
betting needs. Again, it's over at the Betting Pros app.
Just download the app today. That's all you got to do. Bord,
just go to betting pros dot com slash prop. So,
whether it's passing, rushing, receiving, no matter what the staff category,
you're going to see the best numbers, the best lines,
and the projections for the overs of the unders based
on our staff projection. So it's a great way to
(13:00):
bet props. If you're new to it, watch us for
the first time. Use the tools. Don't be a tool.
All right, let's get to Welsh and let's talk about
the Jets Cowboys game, a game that should yield a
fair amount of points. The Jets total I think is
very low. Twenty two and a half against the Cowboys
I think is kind of absurd. Cowboys defense just keeps
giving up giant numbers to everybody. So how do you
(13:20):
want to take that in? Well? Should dish it out
with a prop?
Speaker 2 (13:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (13:23):
Well, my last two we're getting into stink fest where
we start to get stinky. The last one is going
to be my stink bet of the week, which we
hit last week with Jalen Tolbert and the reason.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
I started him in a league, Well should I was
very happy that ball that Dak was trying to throw
away that he caught. I was so proud of you.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
He didn't have a catch in the first half, but
we got them all in the second half, so we
got the over, So we got that stink bet. The
only reason that this is a stink bet is because
it's behind Justin Fields and not his rushing yards. We're
going to go Justin Field's pass yards one hundred and
eighty seven point five over. This is an approved betting
pros bet, by the way, if you check it out
on the cheat sheet. And I think this is going
to be pretty clear for every buddy Cowboys. They've given
(14:01):
up to quarterbacks this at least this number in each
of their last three outings. They have not only had
this number be beat, they've given up two hundred and
ninety eight yards or more in each of the three.
They're averaging over three hundred yards passing to quarterbacks through
all four games, so the first one, obviously they did
not go over this. The interesting thing about Fields is
he's actually broken this two hundred passing yard mark in
(14:22):
two of three games played this season. This is all
about how bad the Cowboys secondary and defense is. The
Cowboys rank and like the bottom five to seven in
between league coverage on corners and running backs, so wide
receivers and running back coverage stinks. They've got brace Hall,
they've got Garrett Wilson projections, and the reason that betting
Pros does like this one is pros projections have him
(14:44):
over two hundred passing yards. So the reason that it stinks.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Is because it's fields.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
Fields could obviously, you know, throw fifteen pass attempts, we
know that in a realm of possibility, but the secondaries
in the coverage is so bad. This gives an opportunity
for Fields to get the ball in the air, probably
going to give him more time to throw. Garrett Wilson
is in line for a half decent day, but we're
going to go over the one hundred and eighty seven
passing yards to one eighty eight plus on justin fields
(15:11):
against this very poorsh Dallas defense.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
All right, let's continue on here with the next pick
on the board for Andrew Rickson. This time we're going
to go to the London game with the Minnesota Vikings
and Jordan Mason. So obviously we have Dylan Gabriel starting
in that game. You've got the Vikings who are staying
over in the United Kingdom. So ericson how does Jordan
Mason equate for you to money in week five?
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Taking the under on Jordan Mason and his receptions under
one and a half catches for Mason, I think that
there's going to be a lot of unders in this game.
Just looking up the really really low total, you have
Carson Wentz going up, it's Dylan Gabriel, and I think
that the Vikings kind of approaches with a pretty conservative
game plan. I don't think they need to do anything extreme.
If they can just play defense, rattle Gabriel, I think
(15:53):
they can escape with a seventeen to ten, seventeen to
seven type of win. Here in London. Mason took a
back seat to Xavier Scott as a receiver out of
the backfield more than running backs. Last week, Mason ran
fewer routes than Scott did. You just drew three targets
to Scott's eight targets. And I honestly think a lot
of these target numbers are just inflated because Carson Wentz
(16:13):
had fifty four dropbacks in that game against the Steelers,
Like that is not what the Minnesota Vikings want to
do like the less drawbacks, Wentz has the better because
the last times he drops back to throw out the
last time he's likely to make a mistake and turned
the ball over to a really stout Cleveland Browns defense.
So the Browns have allowed just three and a half
receptions per game to running backs, which the bottom five
mark in the NFL. So, given that Mason isn't the
(16:37):
primary pass catching back, I don't necessarily think that this
is a matchup where they need to feature him, especially
if the Vikings are playing with the lead, they are favorited.
It isn't a neutral game site, but I think it'd
be more of Mason getting rushing attempts than receptions out
of the backfield. So I'm gonna take the under.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Okay, So yeah, Scott was very active in that game
last week. Want you, to the chagrin of everybody, what
the hell where'd that come from? Let's get to well
just picking, let's stay in London here. Dylan Gabriel that
under center, so we'll see how that works out. But
we also have center Tillman now for that game, so
he's gonna miss some time. That brings up Isaiah Bond
where the hot free agents in the fantasy markets, So
(17:12):
how can we cash in that fantasy when it comes
to Isaiah Bond in this game stink.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Bet of the week we are it was Tolbert last week.
We're going to Isaiah Bonnet feels great.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
If it smells like money, I'm in for the stink bet.
I'm just putting it out there, baby. That's right.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
You know what, in some cheese, it can taste great
and can smell super nasty. And that's going to be
the Isaiah Bond bet here. Receiving yards are twenty seven
point five. Why we like this though, even though Gabriel
is in a quarterback We had six targets last week
obviously with flack O, but six targets last week for
fifty eight yards from Bond. He ended up running seventy
one percent of routes and this is a number I
(17:48):
really like. Running twenty seven routes on thirty seven dropbacks.
And as you mentioned, Tilman is now out, he's kind
of a Bond is listed as a starter. They also
ended up using him in different spots. They put him
in the backfield, going to line them a bit wide receiver,
kind of a gadget playmaker for them. Obviously they got
fan and they're high on these rookies. They're going all
in on it. He also received and hopefully this is
(18:08):
going to carry over from Flacco to Gabriel an almost
twenty one percent first read percentage. So you go and
look at projections as well. We're over forty on PFF,
we're over well over thirty on Fantasy Pro. So both
projection systems that I like to look are really into
this one receptions line between two point seven and three
and a half. But this is an offense that is
(18:30):
going to also use a lot of play action. This
is a playmaker when they're not a lot of playmakers
out there. He had six targets. He's moved, he's a
I think it's ten targets over the last two games.
He's moving up into this offense. And this is an
incredibly incredibly low number. So, yes, it's stinky, but it's
along the lines of Tolbert. This is why I like it.
I gotta tell you two other little parts of this.
(18:51):
I really battled between doing the receptions at two point five.
That's a number that you like as well. But I mean,
Bond is a big playmaker one catch like the iaminor
one last week. He could get this, and you want
to play extra sneaky. I've seen twenty eight point five
rushing and receiving because they use him out of the backfield.
He's only had one rush this year. He had one
rush for nine yards. Would not be surprised, especially because
(19:14):
I know the Vikings are first in Dvoa that if
they try to get the ball in his hands a
little bit more, he could rush. That might be another pivot.
And to be honest with you, I think I might
place that that just in case, because I already like
the receiving yard total over and that gives me one
extra little bump on the rushing. So a couple different ways.
If you want to play in the mud. For Isaiah
Bond from my final bet.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
This week, I think I do. I kind of like it.
The stinky bet of the week. It works for me.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Man.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Let's go to another one too, a player who's terrifically talented,
but certainly the results have been a little stinky for
the Cincinnati Bengals Jamar Chase. Why will the sixty two
and a half finally be it over? For Chase? This week?
Andrew Well.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Jamar Chase guys is averaging one hundred and sixty five
receiving yards at home this season. Yes, he's only played
one game. This is obviously very tongue in cheek, but
he tends to play better at home. Jake Browning is
a much better quarterback at home than playing on the road.
When he's not facing the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota
Vikings and a lot of these tough defitsive matchups. He's
facing the Detroit Lions, who are going to be without
(20:13):
Dj Reed, one of their starting cornerbacks, and Terry On
Arnold is banged up again with another injury. So I
think this Lion's secondary is susceptible to some big plays
from Jamar Chase. We know that he's going to get
a ton of volume, especially after last week when he
was not getting nearly as much as the rock. We'll
talking about this a j brown squeaky wheel. I'm looking
at the Jamar Chase squeaky wheel where the last time
we saw him play at home, Jake Browning was looking
(20:35):
for him on first read, second read, and the third read.
And the other part of this that I want to
highlight is a trend that I'm starting to pick up
on is the certain clamp to Prop Champ. That's what
I'm calling it, because every receiver that has faced Patrick
Surtan the following week has gone over their receiving arts
PROP and that number is always coming depressed because they
(20:55):
have a bad week against the number one cornerback in
the NFL. And this is a trend I like buying
into because it's been bad receivers that have done. Calvin
Ridley went over his receiving arts brought the week after
facing Patrick certain and he has been terrible all season long.
So it is a perfect three to zero. And with
Jamar Chase getting this suppressed number because he went up
against Patrick Surtan on Monday Night Football and everybody saw it.
(21:17):
This is a value proposition for Jamar Chase. You're never
going to see it this low at sixty two and
a half receiving year. So I am hammering the over
and I mean I'm probably gonna I'll bet this too,
because I think that he goes over one hundred yards.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
I think somebody's going to the shed. Welsh. I think
you're taking the ladder out. So it sounds like ladder that.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
It's one of the ladder bet players that are actually
good too.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
It is it is.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
Too bad the quarterback is Jake Browning. So let's go
go ahead to the touchdown scores for Week five and
our predictions there. Remember, you can go to Betting pros
dot com slash touchdown if you're looking for the edge
to bet these tds. Our Touchdown Score report compares anytime
touchdown stats to the PROMP bet odds and projections to
help identify the very best in any time touchdown bet
So again, Betting Pros dot slash Touchdown. That's the place
(22:02):
to get the touchdown score report. And I will kick
things off here since I am on the leader board
with four tuddies on the year and I got I
feel pretty confident we get two for two this week,
that would be way to go. Let's go at Garrett
Wilson plus one thirty right now. You can get for
Garrett Wilson New York Jets against Dallas Cowboys. Look, there's
one place that ball goes when Justin Fields throws it,
(22:23):
and it goes to Garrett Wilson. Folks, this is not
rocket science. I like even for two touchdowns, you could
get first half touchdown. You could play this up however
you want, as many way as you want. But Garrett Wilson,
I think at least gets one score here against the
Dallas Cowboys secondary that's been absolutely atrocious. And Mecca Egg
Buka stick it with my Baker Mayfield upset special of
(22:43):
the week and at buket plus one thirty five himself,
I think a pretty good bet to score a touchdown.
He is a playmaker in that offense. God Wins not
quite up to speed, Evans is out at Buka will
show up even against a tough Seattle defense. He is
gonna show up and make a play because that's what
that man does. Well, let's talk about your time TD
calls four week five in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
Yeah, and by the way, I wanted to make a
note on the touchdown calls, so we were talking about
this off air. One thing we should have done in
tracking was play r OI. But I don't know if
people know this. We don't play minus touchdown bets. Whenever
we do this every single week, we have done a
plus money bet. So just everybody knows when we say, like, hey,
you know this, how many touchdown calls? It's all plus
money plays. And Joe's gotten four plus money plays, which
is positive. So better way maybe in the future is well,
(23:24):
we'll track it.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Minus. We've talked about this on the show, Like, I
think one of the first ones I got that first
week was taking the anytime I'll touch down in the
first half right, cutting them in half. I do that
a lot on the primetime shows. Erickson was making fun
of me. He said, man, you're so good on the
primetime parlays and the touchdown calls. I said, I'm like
the I'm like the anti Kirk Cousins man. I just
I can't. I can on some days, but but I'm
(23:48):
so good when the lights are on. And I got
the standalone What.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Does that mean that you shop though? Kirk Cousins chops that.
What's the opposite of calls?
Speaker 1 (23:54):
I guess Ralph Lauren like, I don't know, I'm very spiff.
I do like the little rack of an ARMANI guy, Okay.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
I don't know what it is, but I just wanted
to make that as like a little caveat just because
like we were talking about it and it was on
my mind. All right, So getting to my touchdown calls
all plus money plays, I mentioned him before Tetoroha McMillan.
I am going to play him at plus one forty
this week. I kind of already gave you all the
stats as far as man coverage goes. Dolphins have also
given up seven passing touchdowns through four games, and at
(24:22):
least one in every single game. You got choot, but
a little bit more banged.
Speaker 1 (24:25):
Um.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
It is Teto McMillan than a bunch of other dudes.
So I like tetorrow to score a touchdown and then
probably my actually favorite this week is almost two to one.
Michael Pittman Daniel Jones, fifth most efficient quarterback in the
NFL against zone coverage. Jones says four hundred and fifty
four passing yards off of play action this year, which
is first among quarterbacks. The Raiders defense ranks thirtieth in
(24:47):
yards per play allowed with play action, and by the way,
Michael Pittman is targeted at the ninth highest rate among
wide receivers against zone coverage, and the Raiders play zone
coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Michael Pittman
plus one ninety any time touchdown?
Speaker 1 (25:02):
All right, Andrew Erickson, let's cap off two more touchdown calls.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
For Week five, I'm going to continue to roll with
my guy Jamar Chase at plus one sixty two, score
a touchdown. I just think he's gonna have a monster game,
so I'm gonna go with that. And then my other
player is a guy who caught two touchdowns on Monday
Night Football, Darren Waller at plus twenty five. He was
put on earth to do two things, make rap albums
and catch touchdowns. So Darren Waller for me in the
(25:27):
red zone, that's his role in this offense. I don't
know how many snaps he's going to play, but when
the Dolphins are going to score, he's going to be
part of the game plan. They're facing the Carolina Panthers,
one of the worst defenses overall and against tight ends.
Hunter Henry score a tight end against them last week
with the Patriots. So Darren Waller, the weeks where he's
healthy are very precious. We don't know how many games
he's gonna last all season long, but I think that
(25:49):
his touchdown chances are are still pretty good, especially after
catching two last week.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
So can you imagine putting us dollars on Darren Waller
in this day and age, It's amazing I'm here for it.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Let's do it. Yeah, I mean certainly, and of course
don't forget everybody. You can also follow us on the
Betting Pros app when you download that, use all the tools,
don't be a tool. And of course you could follow
these tools right here on the Betting Pros app. Just
put our names in right there to see what we're
in on this week. And of course subscribe to the
YouTube channel and the podcast wherever you get your pods.
That'll do for us, But the story of the game
(26:18):
goes on for the Welsh and Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey p.
We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy Week five in
the NFL. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting
Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to
(26:40):
our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets, and this's be Joey p joe Pizabia and
this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to
the props for week five in the NFL, and we're
gonna call some touchdowns as well. But of course let
me bring in before we can begin. My two boys here,
mister Welsh and mister ericson the Undertaker, Andrew, the best
(00:21):
pick you've made all year is picking Pat Fitzmorris to
pick for you last week, four and one for FITZI
last week on the program. Gotta love that pinch hit,
So Andrew, it's time to have follow that up. Are
you prepared to follow up Fitzie?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Well, I haven't read Fitz's prop article yet that he
posts every week, so I don't feel as a confident
making my picks without having that to my side. But again,
just a reason to go check that article out that
Fitz does every single week, because the guy knows his stuff.
So hopefully I can at least finish three and two
this week.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Speaking of three and two, Welsh was three and two
last week, and just looking through the betting pros app
I am. Let's see plus fifty three three percent ROI
seven and five last week. So let's go with a
sixty three dollars profit there on the on the betting pros.
This is why you follow us, folks. You try to
get in there. Look, we're gonna have some bad weeks.
We're gonna have some good weeks. This is the nature
of the beast. And also it comes to touchdown calls
(01:15):
fifty percent on the year. Right here, just got my
fourth one last year here on the show. We each
picked two at the end. Make sure you stick around. Welsh,
you're up first today for the prop. So let's talk
about yours. And you're gonna begin with Tony Pollard and
the number of sixty nine and a half. So which
direction are you going?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
We are gonna nicely go under. We're gonna kick it
off with it under. This was a smash under. I'll
tell you right now. Line's already moving line. Since I
took it, the line has moved on to sixty seven.
People can't smash that number enough. They cannot. The Cardinals,
which Tony Poller is going up against. Cardinals are currently
ninth in yards allowed on the ground of the NFL,
(01:52):
so they're giving up the ninth least rushing yards. Through
four games, only one running back has eclipsed sixty nine yards,
and that was Walker Pollard has only hit this in
one game this year, while seeing his carries decrease three
straight weeks. We've got the looming spear situation. PFF projections
around fifty eight. Fantasy prose, I think is like around
(02:14):
sixty one. Everything is under this number. We are just
seeing the steady decline. There was a lot of just
volume talk around Tony Pollard, but inefficiency as well, so
you know, defensively, the Cardinals are in a good spot.
I think with the decreased carries in general, I love
this under, and you know me, I don't love unders,
and I'm going to start the show with one, but
(02:35):
I instantly smash this one. It's going to keep going down.
I probably play it to sixty five. I think projections
or would even tell you to go a little bit more,
but my comfort level would be there. So sixty nine
point five is what I get to lock in, and
you can even check that over. I'm betting pros because
that is where I have got that. So under is
my first play of the day.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Boys, shout out to everybody you watch on YouTube. Also,
we just hit seventy thousand subscribers. We appreciate you. If
you walk on YouTube, subscribe or even if you're not watching,
go subscribe anyway to the feed here. Again, we're trying
to get to one hundred thousand, so we just keep
on climbing. We appreciate everybody who's watching on the YouTube.
All right, Andrew Ericson, let's get you our first pick
of Week five in.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
I am not going with an under, but it's a
trend that's to do with underdog, So I'm going to
go with Bonnicks going over fifteen and a half rushing yards.
And the trend that I was alluding to was Bonnicks
runs significantly more when his team is losing and he's
an underdog in the specific matchup. So in the last
eleven games where the Broncos have been underdogs entering the contest,
he's gone over fifteen and a half rushing yards in
(03:35):
nine of those contests. He's gone over this number straight
up in three of his four games this season, with
the one game that he didn't go over was last
week when they were heavy favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals,
so when they're protecting a comfortable lead, Bonnicks doesn't run.
But against the Philadelphia Eagles, where maybe they're going to
be in more trailing game, script, I expect Bonnicks to
(03:56):
use his leg. So I'm gonna go over on fifteen
and a half rushing yards for the Broncos quarter.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
All right, So Andrew Erickson starting with an over. Welsh
starting with an under. What's happening here upside down is
officially here upon us? Welsh walk me through pick number
two for week five. It has to do with Omari
and Hampton's rushing yards. Now, look, we've got not one
but two tackles out now for the Chargers. We know
we lost Slater here at the beginning of the year.
Now Joe all dealing with a high ankle sprain. So
(04:21):
how does that affect Omary and Hampton for you this week?
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Well, I mean volume is the thing that pushes us
in the positive. For him, I'd also say this is
outside of just my notes, but explosive plays. So Marian
Hampton obviously can get He had like a hundred explosive yards.
Twenty five percent percentage of explosive yards come into play
for him. So I mean like he can make the
big plays, but obviously you're gonna have like a general
worry about some of the offensive line coming down. But
(04:45):
as a starter last week, he's on ninety two percent
of the team's rush attempts and he played eighty seven
point five percent of the snaps. By the way, the
line we're looking at here for Amarion Hampton is rushing
yards at sixty five point five. This is slowly creeping.
It was at sixty four point five, which, by the way,
our friends at hard Rock Bet have the best line
had that it is slowly moving up, so go and
check that out. He averaged six point six seven yards
(05:08):
before contact last week, so that could speak a little
bit to the offensive line worry. Like obviously the explosive
play plays into that a bit, but you're like, wow,
six point sixty seven that's elite. That's the offensive line
doing work. If they lose that, that's a little bit
of a negative. Well, he also averaged four yards over
four yards after contact, so big play there, whether it's
(05:29):
the offensive line helping out or him breaking away commanders.
So far this year, they're giving up on average twenty
four carries to running backs. And remember ninety two percent
of the team's rush attempts went to Hampton last week, which,
by the way, might be a rush attempt bet for
you guys. And eighty one yards on average are giving
up to running backs. With three of the first four
games this season, running backs have beat this rushing projection.
(05:52):
The projected numbers whether you go to I always like
to cite PFF versus US as well. I like both
of ours. Fantasy Pro's projection a high number, and the
PFF number is also well over this. Fantasy Pro's aggregate
projection is around eighty one yards rushing. So get on
this early while you can, if you believe it. There
obviously could be some worries about the offensive line, but
(06:14):
this is a guy that breaks tackles, make explosive plays,
and has all of the team's usage. So I'm Marion
Hampton over sixty five point five rushing yards.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Lock it up for number two for Andrew Erickson. We're
gonna go to Philadelphia and the Eagles here, and the
Eagles offense has been a little struggle bus despite the
fact that there're four and oh we had a big
conversation just yesterday on the program for the best bets.
Go check that out. To Roll had a really good diatribe,
and that's a way I can describe it. It's a diatribe.
So if you don't know what that word is, go
look it up. Learn something. Google machines here to help you.
(06:43):
So you think you about to crack the code here
potentially for a wager, Andrew, Let's talk about DeVonta Smith
here why he could have a big day against the
Denver Broncos. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
I prefer a half glass full when I'm looking at
the Eagles because it really depends on which half you're
looking at, if their passing game is doing anything or not.
So devant Just Smith is going to go over forty
five and a half receiving yards. I just based on
the matchup Patrick Stertan, we know will lock up the
number one wide receiver on the opposing offense, and that's
going to be a J.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
Brown.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
So even though he's gonna be throwing his arms up
looking for flags complaining he's not getting the football, well,
DeVante Smith's gonna have the better matchup on paper from
the slot, so I think he's gonna see more targets
in volume in the specific matchup. You just look at
the number two receivers that have faced the Denver Broncos.
They've been much more productive than the number one is
because of that really tough matchup. So although I usually
am betting unders when it comes to DeVonta Smith, when
(07:32):
aj Brown Dallas got it are healthy, Especially when it
comes to his receptions prop. I think that he can
be efficient with the more favorable matchup with an easier
cornerback to go over forty five and a half receiving yards,
which is his lowest receiving yards prop since the beginning
of last season. So it's really been depressed because of
how inconsistent Egos office has been. But given the matchup,
I really think that Smith can fly over this pretty easy.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
All right, So DeVante Smith we are in on. Also
the other thing we're in on hard Rock Bet, and
right now is the time to download the app if
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nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois,
in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Let's get to number
three on the list here, and well, we got a
rookie wide receiver that you're tea and up. So let's
talk about tech. McMillan.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Well, don't call him tech, call hin Tete Rowers. Mom's
gonna come after you.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
Well, she knows where I live. Listen, missus McMillan, I'm
waiting for you. Okay, Well, my nd gets.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Her fifty connects the boy fifty six point five as
the receiving yard prop this week, and I like it.
Dolphins rank thirty two of thirty two in cover grades
over on p If you're listening at home, that's not good. Also, PFF,
I love this that Tetoro McMillan. It has on average
five point two yards per route run against man coverage,
(10:11):
which is first in the NFL for wide receivers. They're
going up against the Miami defense that runs man coverage
thirty one almost thirty two percent of the time, which
is tenth most in the NFL. McMillan has also beat
this receiving line in three or four matchups this season.
Projected numbers, they're in favor whether across both sites. You're
looking at your over sixty yards on most places that
(10:32):
I have looked, so you're getting a little bit of
extra juice there. This matchup works really well. They've got
to get him the ball. So Tetoroa McMillan fifty six
point five over receiving yards is bet number three, all right.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
So bet number three in the books for the Welsh.
Let's get to bet number three here for Andrew Erickson Ericson.
Let's talk about Jacobe Meyers. The number for him is
fifty four and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
You want to go over or under I'm gonna go
over for Jigoti Myers is the nimam I like to
get him.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I think workshop that more.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
I just I don't know what else he could do,
but that works work.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
Don't worry.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
I have better names and fun puns coming up.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
So stay tuned. Oh oh good, everybody, everybody get excited.
All right, go ahead, boy. You know, I've never been
a guy who has no kids yet who has more
dad jokes than Andrew Erickson. I just want to point
that out always, for years now, Andrew Erickson has come
to the shows with the dad jokes. Go ahead, talk
about the bed.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
So the Colts lost their number one cornerback from the slot,
Kenny Moore a couple of weeks ago, and they have
been ripped up from the slot. Second most Fantasy points
per game to slot receivers. That's what Jacoby Myers predominantly
runs his routes. He posted a really strong target share
last week and week four thirty three percent. Also saw
fifty nine percent of the team's air yards, and in fact,
(11:47):
he was the targeted receiver on not one, not two,
but all three of Genosmith's interceptions last week. So you
know that Geno Smith is not afraid to just try
to jam targets to Jacoby Myers. He's been over fifty
four and have receiving yards in three of his four
games already this season. And if those last targets not
get intercepted Chacle, Myers would probably be four for four
on his receiving arts. Prop Rock Bowers is still kind
(12:10):
of banged up dealing with this knee injury. He's still
struggling with this knee brace. So I think that means
Myers is going to be the number one pass catcher
in a really favorable matchup.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
So yeah, give me the over. Speaking of Myers too,
just want to point out I think my favorite parlay
of the week is going to be an interception one
and you and I talked about it yesterday. I'd like
to add to it. I want to put Geno Smith
along with Carson Wentz and Dylan Gabriel. It just all
the picks. Pick City. That's the theme of the part.
Like Pixity Parlay, Pick City, parlay Baby, We're coming for
you all right. Speaking of prop bets too, again, prop
(12:40):
bet cheet sheets there for you for all of your
betting needs. Again, it's over at the Betting Pros app.
Just download the app today. That's all you got to do. Bord,
just go to betting pros dot com slash prop. So,
whether it's passing, rushing, receiving, no matter what the staff category,
you're going to see the best numbers, the best lines,
and the projections for the overs of the unders based
on our staff projection. So it's a great way to
(13:00):
bet props. If you're new to it, watch us for
the first time. Use the tools. Don't be a tool.
All right, let's get to Welsh and let's talk about
the Jets Cowboys game, a game that should yield a
fair amount of points. The Jets total I think is
very low. Twenty two and a half against the Cowboys
I think is kind of absurd. Cowboys defense just keeps
giving up giant numbers to everybody. So how do you
(13:20):
want to take that in? Well? Should dish it out
with a prop?
Speaker 2 (13:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (13:23):
Well, my last two we're getting into stink fest where
we start to get stinky. The last one is going
to be my stink bet of the week, which we
hit last week with Jalen Tolbert and the reason.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
I started him in a league, Well should I was
very happy that ball that Dak was trying to throw
away that he caught. I was so proud of you.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
He didn't have a catch in the first half, but
we got them all in the second half, so we
got the over, So we got that stink bet. The
only reason that this is a stink bet is because
it's behind Justin Fields and not his rushing yards. We're
going to go Justin Field's pass yards one hundred and
eighty seven point five over. This is an approved betting
pros bet, by the way, if you check it out
on the cheat sheet. And I think this is going
to be pretty clear for every buddy Cowboys. They've given
(14:01):
up to quarterbacks this at least this number in each
of their last three outings. They have not only had
this number be beat, they've given up two hundred and
ninety eight yards or more in each of the three.
They're averaging over three hundred yards passing to quarterbacks through
all four games, so the first one, obviously they did
not go over this. The interesting thing about Fields is
he's actually broken this two hundred passing yard mark in
(14:22):
two of three games played this season. This is all
about how bad the Cowboys secondary and defense is. The
Cowboys rank and like the bottom five to seven in
between league coverage on corners and running backs, so wide
receivers and running back coverage stinks. They've got brace Hall,
they've got Garrett Wilson projections, and the reason that betting
Pros does like this one is pros projections have him
(14:44):
over two hundred passing yards. So the reason that it stinks.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Is because it's fields.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
Fields could obviously, you know, throw fifteen pass attempts, we
know that in a realm of possibility, but the secondaries
in the coverage is so bad. This gives an opportunity
for Fields to get the ball in the air, probably
going to give him more time to throw. Garrett Wilson
is in line for a half decent day, but we're
going to go over the one hundred and eighty seven
passing yards to one eighty eight plus on justin fields
(15:11):
against this very poorsh Dallas defense.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
All right, let's continue on here with the next pick
on the board for Andrew Rickson. This time we're going
to go to the London game with the Minnesota Vikings
and Jordan Mason. So obviously we have Dylan Gabriel starting
in that game. You've got the Vikings who are staying
over in the United Kingdom. So ericson how does Jordan
Mason equate for you to money in week five?
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Taking the under on Jordan Mason and his receptions under
one and a half catches for Mason, I think that
there's going to be a lot of unders in this game.
Just looking up the really really low total, you have
Carson Wentz going up, it's Dylan Gabriel, and I think
that the Vikings kind of approaches with a pretty conservative
game plan. I don't think they need to do anything extreme.
If they can just play defense, rattle Gabriel, I think
(15:53):
they can escape with a seventeen to ten, seventeen to
seven type of win. Here in London. Mason took a
back seat to Xavier Scott as a receiver out of
the backfield more than running backs. Last week, Mason ran
fewer routes than Scott did. You just drew three targets
to Scott's eight targets. And I honestly think a lot
of these target numbers are just inflated because Carson Wentz
(16:13):
had fifty four dropbacks in that game against the Steelers,
Like that is not what the Minnesota Vikings want to
do like the less drawbacks, Wentz has the better because
the last times he drops back to throw out the
last time he's likely to make a mistake and turned
the ball over to a really stout Cleveland Browns defense.
So the Browns have allowed just three and a half
receptions per game to running backs, which the bottom five
mark in the NFL. So, given that Mason isn't the
(16:37):
primary pass catching back, I don't necessarily think that this
is a matchup where they need to feature him, especially
if the Vikings are playing with the lead, they are favorited.
It isn't a neutral game site, but I think it'd
be more of Mason getting rushing attempts than receptions out
of the backfield. So I'm gonna take the under.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Okay, So yeah, Scott was very active in that game
last week. Want you, to the chagrin of everybody, what
the hell where'd that come from? Let's get to well
just picking, let's stay in London here. Dylan Gabriel that
under center, so we'll see how that works out. But
we also have center Tillman now for that game, so
he's gonna miss some time. That brings up Isaiah Bond
where the hot free agents in the fantasy markets, So
(17:12):
how can we cash in that fantasy when it comes
to Isaiah Bond in this game stink.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Bet of the week we are it was Tolbert last week.
We're going to Isaiah Bonnet feels great.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
If it smells like money, I'm in for the stink bet.
I'm just putting it out there, baby. That's right.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
You know what, in some cheese, it can taste great
and can smell super nasty. And that's going to be
the Isaiah Bond bet here. Receiving yards are twenty seven
point five. Why we like this though, even though Gabriel
is in a quarterback We had six targets last week
obviously with flack O, but six targets last week for
fifty eight yards from Bond. He ended up running seventy
one percent of routes and this is a number I
(17:48):
really like. Running twenty seven routes on thirty seven dropbacks.
And as you mentioned, Tilman is now out, he's kind
of a Bond is listed as a starter. They also
ended up using him in different spots. They put him
in the backfield, going to line them a bit wide receiver,
kind of a gadget playmaker for them. Obviously they got
fan and they're high on these rookies. They're going all
in on it. He also received and hopefully this is
(18:08):
going to carry over from Flacco to Gabriel an almost
twenty one percent first read percentage. So you go and
look at projections as well. We're over forty on PFF,
we're over well over thirty on Fantasy Pro. So both
projection systems that I like to look are really into
this one receptions line between two point seven and three
and a half. But this is an offense that is
(18:30):
going to also use a lot of play action. This
is a playmaker when they're not a lot of playmakers
out there. He had six targets. He's moved, he's a
I think it's ten targets over the last two games.
He's moving up into this offense. And this is an
incredibly incredibly low number. So, yes, it's stinky, but it's
along the lines of Tolbert. This is why I like it.
I gotta tell you two other little parts of this.
(18:51):
I really battled between doing the receptions at two point five.
That's a number that you like as well. But I mean,
Bond is a big playmaker one catch like the iaminor
one last week. He could get this, and you want
to play extra sneaky. I've seen twenty eight point five
rushing and receiving because they use him out of the backfield.
He's only had one rush this year. He had one
rush for nine yards. Would not be surprised, especially because
(19:14):
I know the Vikings are first in Dvoa that if
they try to get the ball in his hands a
little bit more, he could rush. That might be another pivot.
And to be honest with you, I think I might
place that that just in case, because I already like
the receiving yard total over and that gives me one
extra little bump on the rushing. So a couple different ways.
If you want to play in the mud. For Isaiah
Bond from my final bet.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
This week, I think I do. I kind of like it.
The stinky bet of the week. It works for me.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Man.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Let's go to another one too, a player who's terrifically talented,
but certainly the results have been a little stinky for
the Cincinnati Bengals Jamar Chase. Why will the sixty two
and a half finally be it over? For Chase? This week?
Andrew Well.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Jamar Chase guys is averaging one hundred and sixty five
receiving yards at home this season. Yes, he's only played
one game. This is obviously very tongue in cheek, but
he tends to play better at home. Jake Browning is
a much better quarterback at home than playing on the road.
When he's not facing the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota
Vikings and a lot of these tough defitsive matchups. He's
facing the Detroit Lions, who are going to be without
(20:13):
Dj Reed, one of their starting cornerbacks, and Terry On
Arnold is banged up again with another injury. So I
think this Lion's secondary is susceptible to some big plays
from Jamar Chase. We know that he's going to get
a ton of volume, especially after last week when he
was not getting nearly as much as the rock. We'll
talking about this a j brown squeaky wheel. I'm looking
at the Jamar Chase squeaky wheel where the last time
we saw him play at home, Jake Browning was looking
(20:35):
for him on first read, second read, and the third read.
And the other part of this that I want to
highlight is a trend that I'm starting to pick up
on is the certain clamp to Prop Champ. That's what
I'm calling it, because every receiver that has faced Patrick
Surtan the following week has gone over their receiving arts
PROP and that number is always coming depressed because they
(20:55):
have a bad week against the number one cornerback in
the NFL. And this is a trend I like buying
into because it's been bad receivers that have done. Calvin
Ridley went over his receiving arts brought the week after
facing Patrick certain and he has been terrible all season long.
So it is a perfect three to zero. And with
Jamar Chase getting this suppressed number because he went up
against Patrick Surtan on Monday Night Football and everybody saw it.
(21:17):
This is a value proposition for Jamar Chase. You're never
going to see it this low at sixty two and
a half receiving year. So I am hammering the over
and I mean I'm probably gonna I'll bet this too,
because I think that he goes over one hundred yards.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
I think somebody's going to the shed. Welsh. I think
you're taking the ladder out. So it sounds like ladder that.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
It's one of the ladder bet players that are actually
good too.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
It is it is.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
Too bad the quarterback is Jake Browning. So let's go
go ahead to the touchdown scores for Week five and
our predictions there. Remember, you can go to Betting pros
dot com slash touchdown if you're looking for the edge
to bet these tds. Our Touchdown Score report compares anytime
touchdown stats to the PROMP bet odds and projections to
help identify the very best in any time touchdown bet
So again, Betting Pros dot slash Touchdown. That's the place
(22:02):
to get the touchdown score report. And I will kick
things off here since I am on the leader board
with four tuddies on the year and I got I
feel pretty confident we get two for two this week,
that would be way to go. Let's go at Garrett
Wilson plus one thirty right now. You can get for
Garrett Wilson New York Jets against Dallas Cowboys. Look, there's
one place that ball goes when Justin Fields throws it,
(22:23):
and it goes to Garrett Wilson. Folks, this is not
rocket science. I like even for two touchdowns, you could
get first half touchdown. You could play this up however
you want, as many way as you want. But Garrett Wilson,
I think at least gets one score here against the
Dallas Cowboys secondary that's been absolutely atrocious. And Mecca Egg
Buka stick it with my Baker Mayfield upset special of
(22:43):
the week and at buket plus one thirty five himself,
I think a pretty good bet to score a touchdown.
He is a playmaker in that offense. God Wins not
quite up to speed, Evans is out at Buka will
show up even against a tough Seattle defense. He is
gonna show up and make a play because that's what
that man does. Well, let's talk about your time TD
calls four week five in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
Yeah, and by the way, I wanted to make a
note on the touchdown calls, so we were talking about
this off air. One thing we should have done in
tracking was play r OI. But I don't know if
people know this. We don't play minus touchdown bets. Whenever
we do this every single week, we have done a
plus money bet. So just everybody knows when we say, like, hey,
you know this, how many touchdown calls? It's all plus
money plays. And Joe's gotten four plus money plays, which
is positive. So better way maybe in the future is well,
(23:24):
we'll track it.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Minus. We've talked about this on the show, Like, I
think one of the first ones I got that first
week was taking the anytime I'll touch down in the
first half right, cutting them in half. I do that
a lot on the primetime shows. Erickson was making fun
of me. He said, man, you're so good on the
primetime parlays and the touchdown calls. I said, I'm like
the I'm like the anti Kirk Cousins man. I just
I can't. I can on some days, but but I'm
(23:48):
so good when the lights are on. And I got
the standalone What.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Does that mean that you shop though? Kirk Cousins chops that.
What's the opposite of calls?
Speaker 1 (23:54):
I guess Ralph Lauren like, I don't know, I'm very spiff.
I do like the little rack of an ARMANI guy, Okay.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
I don't know what it is, but I just wanted
to make that as like a little caveat just because
like we were talking about it and it was on
my mind. All right, So getting to my touchdown calls
all plus money plays, I mentioned him before Tetoroha McMillan.
I am going to play him at plus one forty
this week. I kind of already gave you all the
stats as far as man coverage goes. Dolphins have also
given up seven passing touchdowns through four games, and at
(24:22):
least one in every single game. You got choot, but
a little bit more banged.
Speaker 1 (24:25):
Um.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
It is Teto McMillan than a bunch of other dudes.
So I like tetorrow to score a touchdown and then
probably my actually favorite this week is almost two to one.
Michael Pittman Daniel Jones, fifth most efficient quarterback in the
NFL against zone coverage. Jones says four hundred and fifty
four passing yards off of play action this year, which
is first among quarterbacks. The Raiders defense ranks thirtieth in
(24:47):
yards per play allowed with play action, and by the way,
Michael Pittman is targeted at the ninth highest rate among
wide receivers against zone coverage, and the Raiders play zone
coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Michael Pittman
plus one ninety any time touchdown?
Speaker 1 (25:02):
All right, Andrew Erickson, let's cap off two more touchdown calls.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
For Week five, I'm going to continue to roll with
my guy Jamar Chase at plus one sixty two, score
a touchdown. I just think he's gonna have a monster game,
so I'm gonna go with that. And then my other
player is a guy who caught two touchdowns on Monday
Night Football, Darren Waller at plus twenty five. He was
put on earth to do two things, make rap albums
and catch touchdowns. So Darren Waller for me in the
(25:27):
red zone, that's his role in this offense. I don't
know how many snaps he's going to play, but when
the Dolphins are going to score, he's going to be
part of the game plan. They're facing the Carolina Panthers,
one of the worst defenses overall and against tight ends.
Hunter Henry score a tight end against them last week
with the Patriots. So Darren Waller, the weeks where he's
healthy are very precious. We don't know how many games
he's gonna last all season long, but I think that
(25:49):
his touchdown chances are are still pretty good, especially after
catching two last week.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
So can you imagine putting us dollars on Darren Waller
in this day and age, It's amazing I'm here for it.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Let's do it. Yeah, I mean certainly, and of course
don't forget everybody. You can also follow us on the
Betting Pros app when you download that, use all the tools,
don't be a tool. And of course you could follow
these tools right here on the Betting Pros app. Just
put our names in right there to see what we're
in on this week. And of course subscribe to the
YouTube channel and the podcast wherever you get your pods.
That'll do for us, But the story of the game
(26:18):
goes on for the Welsh and Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey p.
We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy Week five in
the NFL. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting
Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to
(26:40):
our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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