October 10, 2025 • 31 mins
Become the next propstar! Join Joe Pisapia, Andrew Erickson, and Chris Welsh for their best NFL prop bets for Week 6.
Does Green Bay Packers TE Tucker Kraft smash 5+ receptions and over 45.5 receiving yards? Can Cincinnati Chase Brown go over 3.5 receptions with QB Joe Flacco now under center? Plus, does Las Vegas Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty clear 73.5 rushing yards against the Tennessee Titans?
The Pros rock out to a new picks drop!
Timestamps (may be off due to ads):
Intro - 0:00:00
Tucker Kraft 5+ Receptions - 0:03:17
Tucker Kraft Over 45.5 Receiving Yards - 0:05:36
Stefon Diggs Over 60.5 Receiving Yards - 0:06:43
Chase Brown Over 3.5 Receptions- 0:09:06
Hard Rock Bet - 0:11:04
Tua Tagovailoa Under 223.5 Passing Yards - 0:12:46
Bo Nix Under 20.5 Rushing Yards - 0:15:07
BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:16:46
Ashton Jeanty Over 73.5 Rushing Yards - 0:17:01
Tony Pollard Under 56.6 Rushing Yards - 0:18:47
Hassan Haskins Over 33.5 Rushing Yards - 0:20:36
Kenneth Walker III Over 9.5 Receiving Yards - 0:23:03
BettingPros Touchdown Scorer Report - 0:23:52
Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+185) & Bijan Robinson First-Half TD (+145) - 0:24:18
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+130) & Tucker Kraft (+185) Anytime TDs - 0:25:12
Tucker Kraft (+185) & Malik Washington (+425) Anytime TDs - 0:26:18
Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD (No Line) - 0:26:08
Outro - 0:30:23
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey b Joe Pizipi and
this is BP NFL. It's week six in the NFL,
and it's time to look ahead to the props. And
of course two guys in are hot right now in
the prop department, the Welsh, the Undertaker Andrew Erickson. Really
good weeks, gentlemen, coming off from last week. Let's go
(00:21):
to the board here because you guys are both fourteen
and eleven on the season, so there you go above
five hundred. Look in September sometimes a little bit of
a slow start, but we're rocking and rolling right now.
Welsh coming up a four and one week. Ericson was
positive as well at three and two. I was five
and oh all my bets last week, So make sure
you follow me over on Betting Pros along with the
guys when you download the app. It's easy. You just
(00:41):
go in there and just follow us and bet with us.
Have some fun touchdown calls too. Joey p still the
leader on the board. Yeah, let's go six tds. I
want to get two more this week. I want to
be perfect. We'll see if we could do that, but
we want you to subscribe to the channel hang out
with us, talkball and gentlemen, I really quick. I just
want to talk about last night, can we? Because it
feels like if Jackson Dart and Camscataboo don't start like
(01:03):
a mid nineties hip hop group, like cover band kind
of thing, I feel like we're just missing out. I
feel like that's the vibe Welsh and I can only
really talk to you about this because Ericson was in
grade school then.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Would either want them to be like the Beastie Boys
or something like that.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Yeah, it's just like it's very this is how we
chose from ninety three till infinity kind of feel about
those guys together. It's a vibe, man, and Cam'sgataboo's a vibe.
And they just beat the Eagles. That's the first win
in eleven tries, by the way, against Indivision opponents for
the Giants in the last twelve games. That's crazy, right, That.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Is actually a wild stat I mean in shout out,
like Camskataboo has already taking this thing over, like you know,
shout out to you and Bogman. Bogman especially, he's the
number one Cam Scataboo guy, and people gave so much
crap about it, and what do we week six and he
just scored three touchdowns against the Eagles. Like, we're in
a pretty good spot for Cam and in the betting market,
(01:56):
it's gonna be hard not to want to play Jackson
Dart rushing yards every single week or even in the
touchdown or I cannot believe like that first breakaway touchdown,
Like how do you let him be that open?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
But hey, they're a fun team, man.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Well, and that's weird because Bogs and I was a
one of the things last night on the show that
we disagreed on. He still was going for the under
on that I was looking for the over because I
didn't think thirty six was quite enough. I didn't it
was going to go, you know, above fifty necessarily. But
he's been so mobile, and look the Eagles right down
scuffling a little bit, you know, Rickson, You and I
kind of talked about like I feel like the Eagles
are like the Chiefs a couple of years ago of
(02:30):
off the Super Bowl win, big victory, and then the
next year the schedules is kind of tough and you're
just kind of chipping away winning some games, but you
see like the underlying weaknesses. How do you feel about
the Eagles going forward in the betting market after these
back to back.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Losses, Probably a team that you want to be betting against,
is the way that I would put it, especially because
they were dealing with some injuries on the defensive side
of the football. Kiln Carter didn't play, so that obviously
helped contribute to a monster game from Camp Skataboo. And
then Quenya Mitchell didn't play in the entire second half.
I mean, he's their best corner. So you lose so
many pieces and then you look up and say, wait,
this isn't the Eagles defense that I wants newt similar
(03:03):
like what happened to the Ravens, Right, You look up
and this isn't the same team that we were talking
about in the off season. Because it's so many different
guys that are now filling in crucial spots. So almost
Eagles can get healthy. Yeah, definitely concerned about them rest
of season.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
All right, everybody, let's get after it here, and let's
start with the first prop for Week six. As we
continue to look ahead and look at this the guys
are agreeing right out of the gate on a player.
We got Green Bay going against oh, the Cincinnati Bengals
and new quarterback Joe Flacco. So Welsh, how do we
want to approach this one? What prop do you see
that you just can't stay away from.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Welcome to Tucker Craft Week, everybody, because it's all Tucker
Craft all day. Me and Erickson are both gonna jump
on it and hopefully we can continue the hot streak
and just keep destroying the haters Tucker Craft. I Am
going to go and play receptions, but I'm gonna move
it up a marker because it is actually a pretty
nice three and a half if you just want to
play that straight. But there's some juice to it. But
(03:59):
if you altered up little bit in some places. By
the way, it is going to be at four and
a half right now. Getting plus one fifty two on
five receptions for Tucker Craft. Cincinnati currently is averaging almost
ten targets per game to tight ends and almost seven
catches to tight ends. In five matchups, three tight ends
(04:20):
have caught five or more passes, and the Denver tight
ends went over this. There was like a combo of
Troutman and Ingram. So in the five matches, tight ends
are crushing this, especially the three individuals. Kraft On himself,
he has hit this marker in two of four matchups.
He's had five catches. And if we look at the
coverage rates in here, Cincinnati's linebacker coverage is thirty two
(04:44):
of thirty two according to PFF, the worst in the NFL.
Safety coverage twenty nine of thirty two, so both spots. Obviously,
corner coverage can help a little bit. But we know
that Love is going to get him the ball. We
know that they stink against it, and we are getting
one and a half on five receptions for Tucker Craft,
which he has done this, which is defense has given up.
(05:06):
The only negative to this is if the Packers absolutely
blow this out and they start to get some of
these other guys involved. But even in some cases where
like the Lions went up against them and were hitting
them up, Sam la Porter ended up getting five receptions.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
So I really like this marker.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
I like being involved in betting on Tucker Craft, and
it's going to open up the discussion here in a
second of the age old receptions versus receiving yards, and
I went with the high plus return on receptions today.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
All right, now, Andrew Erickson, you're on the other side
of this board still with Tucker Craft, but the over
on the forty five and a half receiving yards, which
again that's the easy way out. Now, you're not gonna
get quite the same juice that Welsh is getting probably
on the five plus receptions, but it is a safer bet.
So look, there's nothing wrong with taking both of these
approaches here to Tucker Craft in this game because Cincinnati
(05:57):
is definitely the gift that keeps on giving.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Yeah, it's one of the worst defenses in the NFL
against tight ends that Welsh kind of laid out, but
specifically two receiving yards sixty nine yards per game allowed
to tight ends. That's a nice number. We love to
see that when we're attacking tight ends. So I guess
for me, it's Tucker Craft. How does he win? And
a lot of it's yards after the catch, like he
rips off a lot of big plays, So I get
I'm a little bit more hesitant just on the reception,
(06:20):
just because if we see the Packers just totally destroy
the Cincinnati Bengals, you know, is Craft even in the
game in the fourth quarter, Like, that's my only concern
for the volume. But like Welsh played out, you are
getting plus money on the receptions bet So even though
there is more risk, the reward is there. And either way,
Craft is going to eat in some capacity with yardage
receptions and maybe a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
One guy that's been eating quite a bit in the
last two weeks Stefon Diggs. Oh wait, the yards, the receptions,
everything's been there, and now he gets a game against
the New Orleans Saints. Now, look, I don't know if
this is an emotional letdown scenario here against the New
Orleans Saints, but Welsh clearly you see a trend line
going here with Stefan DAGs, who looks good, looks healthy,
looks like that ramp up is finally complete after offseason surgery,
(07:05):
a little slow in September, and then towards the end
of September really turning things on here as we head
into October. So how do we approach Stefan Diggs in
week six?
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Yeah, and you could play it almost like a college
how you were kind of laying it out like there
could be an emotional letdown, Like I'm not going to
play that because the thing I'm betting on is Stefan
Diggs is the number one in this offense. There's not
a question anymore. And that used to also not be
a good thing with the Patriots, like it didn't really
matter who was the number one. The beginning of the year,
he was trying to find his footing where he was
(07:35):
in the offense. They were spreading the ball out. The
last two weeks that kind of went away, specifically even
this week where in Week five he was the third
highest first read percentage of any wide receiver in the NFL.
Over the last two weeks, he's had two straight weeks
of one hundred yards or more receiving and he's had
sixteen targets over that time. So he is the alpha
(07:57):
number one. Drake May said very early on in the year,
I did to get the ball to Digs and see
what he does. And Diggs looks super, super comfortable. So
we take the number one in there, a guy that
has been crushing this over the last couple of weeks.
And you go to New Orleans who has given up
this receiving yards prop to team's top four wide receivers
in four or five games this year, So four or
(08:17):
five games that number one receiver killed this prop. And
if we want to look at matchup ratings, PFF gave
this a great matchup rating, ranking the Saints twenty.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Four to thirty two in coverage.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
So I think everything really speaks to this. Stephan Diggs
is making big plays.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
After the catch. He does a little bit of a both.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
He can have a lower ad dot and get the
receptions after he can make the big plays. I think
they're going to be able to kind of move a
little bit at will, and.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Diggs is the first rate option.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
So sixty point five receiving yards for Stephan Diggs, it's
a good spot. I wish it was lower. That would
be super super cool. But I had Diggs is, like
I said, killed this in the two, I'm not going
to be surprised if he has this at half.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
So Stefan Diggs receiving yard prop is my second.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
I think it's a pretty low number still, even if
it's a slightly underwhelming day, I think we can hit
this one, all right, Andrew, Let's go back to that
game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers
for a moment. One guy that had high expectations going
into the year was running back Chase Brown, and unfortunately
we haven't reached anything close to those expectations. But new
quarterback under center, I don't know how that changes the
(09:21):
dynamic of the offense. But when you have somebody who's
coming in here and just kind of learning the playbook
and figuring out the personnel, it seems like you'd have
to lean a little bit maybe on the running backs.
How do you see Chase Brown potentially working with Joe
Flacco in this one?
Speaker 4 (09:33):
I think he's going to catch a lot of targets
and a lot of receptions from Joe Flacco. I don't
have a lot of confidence trying to handicap this game
about what Flacco is going to do to this offense.
How many points are the Packers going to win? By
My most confident approach to this game is that Chase
Brown is going to catch over three and a half receptions.
Green Bay ranked second among defenses in terms of running
back receptions allowed per game at six point five. And
(09:55):
we look at what Flacco did with the Cleveland Browns,
again trying to copy and paste to figure out what
you could with the Bengals. Well, both are really bad
offensive lines and Flacco behind the Browns on bad offensive
line was targeting running backs at a twenty three percent
target share, that with the seventh highest mark in the NFL.
All three running backs on the Browns, we're seeing at
least three targets per game between Ford Sampson and Quinjohn Judkins.
(10:16):
So now if you're kind of condensing that into one guy, well, okay,
now we're cooking with gas here with Chase Brown getting
involved a lot from receptions if they have negative game script,
just more fuel to the fire for Chase Brown being
peppered with targets. So Chase Brown also has at least
three catches and all of his non Joe Burrow starts,
because hey, if you're not Joe Burt, you're basically gonna
checking down to running backs at a really high rate
(10:37):
behind this terrible Bengals offensive line. So that's my most
confident bet when it comes to well, besides Tuckercraft on
the Cincinnati offense.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
All right, so we're heavily involved in that game already,
three of the four bets in that contest, and I'm
not sure I haven't looked yet with the overunder on
the Micah Parsons, the sacks are going to be but.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
I think I want well, we have more tackles than
Jamar chays.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
He doesn't so far know because we've already proved that
the other show we talked about the other day. All right,
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Let's get to the next one on our list. Here
to a tango. Biloa is next year going against a
(12:52):
Charger team that's going in the wrong direction. Talk about injuries, Well,
this team has been ravaged by them the last couple
of weeks. I already told Terrell we argue about this yesterday.
I got a bad field about this game. I'm just
staying away from it. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see, But
how do you want to approach Tua in this game
against Again, it's not just the offense here, but it's
also the defense, missing guys like Khalil Mack.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
I am regardless of everything. You don't you have a
bad feeling about it. I got a bad feeling about
Tua getting behind the center and taking a couple steps
and trying to throw the ball because we are going
to go passing yards under too twenty three and a half,
which I think is what you're talking about with some
of the defensive concerns is why that number is high,
because it really shouldn't be. Projections PFF projections around two
(13:35):
oh seven on the passing yards, most are under the
two to twenty marker. TUA has hit this under in
two of three games so far this season.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
I'm missing one in.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Their Chargers averaging just one hundred and eighty eight passing
yards per game to quarterbacks, obviously with some of the injuries,
but also ranking inside the top five and least passing
yards given up so far. Looking at the defensive grades,
this puts two matchup as a poor and they're going
up against now. Obviously this alters a little bit with
where the injuries are going to go. But you're looking
(14:07):
at defense that has a top ten coverage and wide receiver,
running back, and tight end. So the problem where this
bet can go a little bit awry is really like
a Devon Achan where a Devon Chen can rip off
a seventy yard but you had Malik Washington have no
coverage whatsoever. Four catches for zero yards. I think three
of them were negative. You've only got Jayalen Waddle. I mean,
(14:29):
I guess we can talk about Warren if you want.
He does his magical disappearing act in the second half.
They just don't have the big passing options. And I
think to what you were saying, there's a lot of
injuries and it's actually going to kind of lead to
my ugly, disgusting, sicko bet of the week at the
end is that this team, this Chargers team, is going
to try to slow this pace back down. They've been
one of the highest paced passing teams in the NFL.
(14:51):
I think you're going to have to get some of
it on the ground. So maybe this one smells and
reeks a little bit, but that's just the smell of
Tua trying to get at the ball downfield. And I'm
going to go with his under passing yards to twenty
three point five.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
All Right, there you have it. Let's get to the
next bet here. Bow Nicks is going to be in
the international game against the New York Jets. Still winless here,
So Andrew, let's talk about bo Nicks here for a moment. Obviously,
he hasn't quite played up to his potential. We saw
a slow start last year, but a big win obviously
last week against the Philadelphi Eagles has no doubt about that.
(15:25):
So what does all this mean here we're trying to
figure out betting on bon Knicks. What prop stands out
to you because he is a mobile quarterback. But of
course you are the undertaker.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
Yes, I am the undertaker. And when it comes to
bow Knicks, he has very stark splits when it comes
to whether he's a favorite or whether he's an underdog.
And you see that when how he performs. When he
plays bad teams, he plays really well, and when he
plays really good teams, he tends to struggle. The Broncos
are one of these teams that feasts on the week,
and they're facing the New York Jets this week, so
(15:56):
I'm expecting the Broncos to kind of steamroll. Here was
one of my best bets with Furman as well on
the Best Bet Show, the Broncos laying the points in London.
And that's why I'm going under on his rushing yards
because when he is a favorite, we bet the under.
Last week we bet the over and it came through
because they were underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles last three games.
Is a favorite. This season, Bonix has been under twenty
and a half rushing yards. He's been under that number
(16:18):
and the last eight of eleven games when the Broncos
have been favorite. So again, we just trust the process
here and this is all part of it. And the
reason I can find these splits is with the prop
bet cheat sheet, you can add a filter favorite or underdog,
and I think that helps a lot when you're trying
to figure out which trends are going to stick because
you just look at the overall rushing Bonix is a
really really up and down. But when you narrow by
underdog or favorite, you're flying. Oh there is a pattern here,
(16:41):
and that's something that I've been really profitable betting on
Bonicks when he's a favorite and underdog.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
He saved me a read just now or Andrew, I
love you now. I don't have to tell everybody online
about the prop bet cheat sheet, so yeah, I mean
go check it out bettingpros dot com slash props. So
what are you waiting for? Download the app, sak your
sports foks for free, do all that stuff. Prop bet
cheat sheet elite, that's what it is, all right, Let's
get to Ashton genty for pick number four. The rushing
yard total is seventy three and a half. All right,
(17:07):
welsh over or under for Genty in Week six.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Guys, my unders done. I got my under out of
the way.
Speaker 4 (17:13):
That was two up.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
You get one under out of me per week at best,
So my unders done. So we're in over territory right now.
We're gonna go over rushing yards for Ashton genty seventy
three point five. That number is starting to move. Projections
like it. Pff, they've got their singular projections. It's around
eighty or I'm sorry, seventy nine point two pros. Fantasy
(17:34):
Pros have an aggregate projection eighty point nine, so both
of those are already over third most yards. Ashton genty
has had it between weeks four and five, so the
last two weeks he kind of changed his stance, they
changed kind of the approach. He's averaging over one hundred
yards on the ground, has an almost fifty percent rate
of runs going for five yards or more during that
(17:55):
period of time. So it is dumb as it's kind
of seemed just his comfortability and obviously matchup based has
really gotten him into a good spot the Titans, where
on some rating grades have this as not the best matchup.
They're giving up over one hundred and twenty two yards
to running backs per game on the ground, and in
each game a running back has beat this rushing prop
(18:17):
or the split backfield where there's two backs have at
least had forty yards each or more. So singular backs
are beating this, or if you've got kind of a split,
both backs are eating.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
So this is a pretty good spot.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
They're leaning on him a bunch, obviously, they're kind of
riddled with injuries. Get the ball out of Gino's hands
and put it into Ashton Gent's let him rush and
we've got under eighty I think is a good marker here.
So Ashton Gent rushing yards is my fourth bet.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
All right, the next one, Undertaker, you're gonna have to
explain to me because Tony Pollard might not have been
spectacular this year, but the number he's facing at fifty
six and a half that you found here for the
under he has actually gone sixty seven last week, sixty
four of the week before then he was under this
of forty five, but then over with ninety two and
over in week one with sixty working our way backwards here,
(19:08):
So why do things come to a halt against the
Las Vegas Raiders this week for him?
Speaker 4 (19:12):
Well, how many of those games. Did you play with
Tajai Spears. Wow?
Speaker 1 (19:16):
The answer to that would be yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
And that was just last week and we saw the
number nine dramatically beat his closing line prop. And twenty
five of those yards came in the fourth quarter when
the Titans should have already lost that game against the
Arizona Cardinals. So I'm going to betting against Tony Pollider
under fifty six and a half rushing yards the Raiders
I think have been under the raider A run defense
this year tenth fewest rushing yards allowed per game. Paul
(19:40):
has only hit this number twice in the last seven
games he's played with Tajai Spears, and all of the
coach speak out of the Titans camp has been that
Taji Spears role is going to increase another game back
from his ankle injuries. So I'm expecting closer to a
fifty to fifty split or sixty forty split in favor
of Pollard. I don't like the matchup. If you look
at the running backs that have actually gone over this
(20:00):
number against the Raiders this season, one vot was Jonathan
Taylor and he's still actually finished under his rushing prop.
He was over fifty six and a half yards but
still under what his closing line prop was. And Jerry
McNichols he was the other guy and was on that
really weird play where it looked like he got tackled
and then all of a sudden, you look, I'll be
like rush for like a seventy yard touchdown. So kind
of a fluky play. And both those games are on
the road, so the Raiders at home have been a
(20:21):
very stout run defense. I like the Raiders in this
spot as weird as it sounds, and I like the
bet on Ashton geny as well here. So if they
play ball control, they win this game. I think the
Titans struggled to run the football taking the ender on
Tony Pollard.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
All right, Well, going back for our last pick here
before we get to the touchdown calls layer in the show, here,
let's talk about that Chargers team again, because obviously Naji
harras done for the year, Amaro Hampton done for a
few weeks now, so now we're looking at Kamani Vidal
and Hassan Haskins. So do you have any lean here
in which how you might be able to make some
cash on them?
Speaker 2 (20:54):
This week I do and every week my fifth bet
I've just turned into my sicko bet of the week,
and we cashed it last week on the last play
of the game that we cashed it. Before we've been
cashing them Isaiah Bond got there. So we're going back sickos.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
I mean, if we're back in a thousand, what the
hell are you doing here? Just all Siico one.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
I'm tempted we'll have a Sicco week. We'll totally do
a Siico week.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
But I think that's one of those situations where if
you your efficiency is really good, but when you boost
the volume, the efficiency doesn't fall off.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
Fair Yeah, okay, we're gonna vomit.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
We're gonna be two sick So we're gonna we just
go with one sicko bet and this week it is
going to be banking on Hassan Haskins. Hassan Haskins rushing
yards thirty three point five over, that's the play. Obviously,
there's a big question about Vidal or Haskins. The team
has shown some early lean to Haskins, but I think
what you're also going to see is you're gonna see
Haskins do a lot of the like the early down
(21:44):
dirty work, and Vidal might be more of like a
third down back. But as I mentioned, like you know,
they've got some injuries, I think they're gonna want to
have some pace control, and I think it's gonna end
up going to Haskins here. The matchup works well for
a back that's gonna to get some volume, So that's
going The thing that's gonna kill me is if it
does go to vital or I don't know, if they
do just decide to pass the living crap out of
(22:06):
the ball and they rush nine times. But Miami is
currently giving up the third most rushing yards per game
per game right now. I mean you can absolutely run
across the board on them rankings. They're thirtieth of thirty
two in defensive grade, their defensive front is twenty eight
of thirty two, and most projections are over this are
aggregate MPFF, the two I like to kind of site between.
(22:27):
They're over this number. So this to me feels like
we are going to get ten plus maybe ten to
twelve carries on Haskins against this defensive matchup. I think
you can get over to forty and I think both
of these running backs are going to be involved to
a level that you know, I don't want to bet
on Vidal, but I think Haskins is going to get
that like first and second down work.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Maybe they're gonna.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Split series, but I really just love the matchup that's
going on here against Miami, and I'm banking that we're
gonna have ten plus carries for Haskins and then we're
we're gonna slam it. So sickle bet of the week
because on Haskins rush yards.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
Let's go all right, let's go Andrew Ricks and you
got one more in the bank here for the props
before we start to look at it for the touchdowns.
So where are you going for your last pick of
the week? Is it a sick o bet? Who knows?
Speaker 4 (23:11):
We're going to do all with the Seattle Seahawks and
the Jacksonville Jaguars from taking the over on Kenneth Walker
going over nine and a half receiving yards. The Jaguars
defense has a lot of the fourth most yards and
catches to running backs this season. Six different running backs
they have faced have gone over ten receiving yards against them,
and Walker. If you look at the propat Chiejet you'll
see that he's gone for thirteen plus receiving yards in
(23:32):
three of his last four games. However, he did actually
hit the over last week. He had a twelve yard catch,
but it was called back because of an offensive penalty.
But the usage suggests, hey, no, this is still part
of their game plan. If there was no penalty, he
would have gone over in four straight games. So aggression
to the meme here, He's going to go over in
a really good matchup. I saw like ken Walker with
the receiving yards all right.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
Before we get to the touchdown calls, remember the Touchdown
score Report is available at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown.
If you're looking for an edge, and I know you are,
for your touchdown bets, use the score report. It compares
anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to
help you identify the very best in any time touchdown
bet So again bettingpros dot com slash touchdown. That's the
place to find the help with the TD calls. Or
(24:14):
you could just follow me every week. Since I'm on
the leaderboard at six, let's go. I'm keeping it simple
this week. I am looking to get look. Stefan Diggs
has been great. It's been a great run. I'm very
excited about it, but I want to get back to
some basics here for the Patriots to get Hunter Henry
a touchdown, and I'm getting a nice number here plus
one eighty five. I know Debro has a lot of
glowing things in the primer over on fantasypros dot Com
about this matchup against the Saints this week, so I'm
(24:36):
gonna try to take advantage of that. See what happens
when you read kids, you learn things. And then I'm
gonna go with John Robinson, who is a really good
matchup against Buffalo Bills. He's rested, he's coming off a bie.
I just think they're gonna feed the beast here over
and over and over again. The problem is it's heavily juice.
So what do we do when the juice is heavy
on a guy that's a lock to score a touchdown? Well,
(24:56):
we chop the game in half and we take our
chances with the plus money plus one forty five for
Bijon Robinson this week to score a touchdown in the
first half. Again, if he scores it in the second half,
not the first. I don't get this, but I'm willing
to make that risk. All right, well, let's get to
you and your touchdown calls. I can only assume for
the two of you, everybody's just betting Tucker Craft. Is
(25:18):
that where we are already? We come full circle on
the show.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
Hey, I was first on the sheet and I immediately
put Tucker Craft, and then I said, let's figure everything
else out.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
So I do have a play.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
I got plus one eighty five on Tucker Craft. As
mentioned before, this is a phenomenal matchup. We love the targets.
I mean, get us five catches fifty yards in a
score and we can just go three and zero on
our Tucker Craft bets. So I'm gonna try to get
back in it. You guys have definitely been the touchdown callers.
I am lagging here, so I'm not gonna make any
room on ericson because he's gonna join me on that one.
(25:48):
But I'm also gonna go with Jackson Smith and Jigbo.
I believe has like you know, a second or third
highest on the projected totals just kind of across the board.
And how he's gonna eat the Jags. I think actually
given up receiving touchdowns, so wide receivers over the last
two weeks, but that was against the Niners and the
Chiefs Bengals. Texans have kind of ate them up. Jackson
Smith and Jigga is going to get a million million targets.
(26:10):
Matchup rating is really really good for him. So I
like that at plus one thirty. So Jasin and Tucker
Craft for me.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
All right, touchdown, calls Erickson, who do you have for
week six?
Speaker 4 (26:20):
So, like Welsh mentioned, I'm also on the Tucker Craft
bandwagon here because that's how we're going to catch you, Joe.
We're just gonna bet on Tucker Craft to catch touchdown.
So that's we're going to close the gap and the
touchdown far.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
I got news for you boys. If he doesn't score
a touchdown and I get too, well, boy, you can
see me starting to pull away. It's like it's like
it hurts through that pick six last night. That guy
and flat just kept running and run and running. Cocky,
they did catch him by it. Let me let me
rephrase that.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
But I do have actually a quick story with that.
So we're watching the game and it was right after
the broadcasters and now it's like, oh yeah, like the
Eagles have like an eighty eight or the Giants have
an eighty eight percent chance to winning this game. And
then I'm starting to see the Eagles drive down the
film like eighty eight percent, Like what's going on? Immediately
throws the pick six on the interception. I'm like, oh,
(27:08):
that's why they have an eighty eight percent chance of
leading this game.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
A little bit behind sometimes on there. Look, it's just
it's amazing how the I like, well, I'm gonna get
back to the touchdown calls for but just one second.
It's amazing how the vibes in that stadium are so different.
And and look, New York is one of those places, man,
when you capture the crowd and and they are into
the game. It's tough man. Tough day for Philadelphia too, Boy,
Eagles lose the Philly's elimited for the playoffs. Welsh, it
(27:32):
is a tough, tough day. You're gonna go get in
your hogies and your coke and your feelings over there
in Philadelphia.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
It's a lot of screaming about Jalen Hurts and O'Ryan
kirkring going on right now.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
A lot of everyone's really upset about.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
Batteries are going to be sold out everywhere across Philly, so.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
They can everyone go home cry in your cokes. All right, ericson,
let's talk about touchdown costs. Go ahead, fist.
Speaker 4 (27:53):
So Craft has scored a touchdown in both the Packers'
home games this year, so he's been working on his
Lambeau leap and he's ready to go. Bangals upot four
touchdowns the tight ends in their last three games. So
that's just fueling more for the Tucker Craft love. And
then I'm doing a longer shot here plus four to
twenty five, so I'm not taking any easy minus money.
(28:14):
I'm going big. Malik Washington wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins.
Tyreek Hill is no longer part of this offense, and
Malik Washington didn't see necessarily expanded role. We thought that
he would see whoever, he did run more routes. He
saw more targets than Nick Westbrook a kine, so he
was still kind of operating as that wide receiver too.
And he also had two red zone targets last week.
So again he generated a lot of negative yards because
(28:36):
he didn't rip off any yards after the catch. But
the Chargers defense is one of the worst defense in
the NFL in mistackle rate. And you know who scored
against them last week, a guy who profiles very similar
to Milik Washington, Deebo Samuel. So I think that in
a game that could get kind of whacky, like you
kind of indicated Joe between the Chargers of Dolphins. I
think Lake Washington could be a sneaky guy to score.
And if you look at the Betting Pros Anytime Touchdown Report,
(29:00):
sixth highest EVY bet for the report, leak Washington.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Interesting stuff there, very good. Like I said, I'm just
got you're feeling about that game. By the way, I
wanted to bet this touchdown, but it's not on there.
So this is just my bonus for everybody. As soon
as you have Mecha Buka one shows up, just bet it. Please.
It's not on there right now because God One's now out.
They're still waiting about who's gonna play quarterback for the
forty nine ers. It happens every week. It should just
be mac Jones. Just play mac Jones, right well, should
(29:25):
be the great quarterback in the history of our our
lifetime is Wade mac Jones.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne are going to be on
my betting card. I think I saw that our friend
Kelly posted that Bucky Evans and Godwin have actually all
been ruled out.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
Yeah, so Chub just went out too for the week.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
So all those Reco Dowdle that is the one right now.
I could not put on this. I could not put
on this card because they would not release it. But
that's my freebee. Rico'dowdle's something touch down, rushing yard, receiving yard,
do something with.
Speaker 1 (29:57):
In the early two thousands, Reco Dawdle something spoor and
they were.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Hey, you know what that that could be the camp
Scataboo and Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
You know cover band.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
Sounds like an Oasis song.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
Actually, no, the Camp Scattoo and Jackson our cover band.
It needs to be called like the Blue Medical Tent
or something like, because that's all that's real. They all
want to go to party. Because I was like, you
got darting there, then Scattaboo's trying to get in there.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
I think that's the party in the Blue Tent is
definitely the first single off that album, without a doubt.
All right, make sure you drop your comments below your
favorite props your touchdown calls four Week six of the
NFL We Love hear from all you. Let's have some
fun here. Subscribe to the channel again Ring the belt
Lickos Ding so you never miss a piece of content.
Here go download hard Rock bet app and don't forget
everybody as well. Download the Betting Pros app. Use the
(30:41):
prop bet cheet sheet to help you bet all your props.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for the Welsh and the Undertaker. Andrew
ericson I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time, kids, peace.
Speaker 5 (30:51):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey b Joe Pizipi and
this is BP NFL. It's week six in the NFL,
and it's time to look ahead to the props. And
of course two guys in are hot right now in
the prop department, the Welsh, the Undertaker Andrew Erickson. Really
good weeks, gentlemen, coming off from last week. Let's go
(00:21):
to the board here because you guys are both fourteen
and eleven on the season, so there you go above
five hundred. Look in September sometimes a little bit of
a slow start, but we're rocking and rolling right now.
Welsh coming up a four and one week. Ericson was
positive as well at three and two. I was five
and oh all my bets last week, So make sure
you follow me over on Betting Pros along with the
guys when you download the app. It's easy. You just
(00:41):
go in there and just follow us and bet with us.
Have some fun touchdown calls too. Joey p still the
leader on the board. Yeah, let's go six tds. I
want to get two more this week. I want to
be perfect. We'll see if we could do that, but
we want you to subscribe to the channel hang out
with us, talkball and gentlemen, I really quick. I just
want to talk about last night, can we? Because it
feels like if Jackson Dart and Camscataboo don't start like
(01:03):
a mid nineties hip hop group, like cover band kind
of thing, I feel like we're just missing out. I
feel like that's the vibe Welsh and I can only
really talk to you about this because Ericson was in
grade school then.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Would either want them to be like the Beastie Boys
or something like that.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Yeah, it's just like it's very this is how we
chose from ninety three till infinity kind of feel about
those guys together. It's a vibe, man, and Cam'sgataboo's a vibe.
And they just beat the Eagles. That's the first win
in eleven tries, by the way, against Indivision opponents for
the Giants in the last twelve games. That's crazy, right, That.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Is actually a wild stat I mean in shout out,
like Camskataboo has already taking this thing over, like you know,
shout out to you and Bogman. Bogman especially, he's the
number one Cam Scataboo guy, and people gave so much
crap about it, and what do we week six and he
just scored three touchdowns against the Eagles. Like, we're in
a pretty good spot for Cam and in the betting market,
(01:56):
it's gonna be hard not to want to play Jackson
Dart rushing yards every single week or even in the
touchdown or I cannot believe like that first breakaway touchdown,
Like how do you let him be that open?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
But hey, they're a fun team, man.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Well, and that's weird because Bogs and I was a
one of the things last night on the show that
we disagreed on. He still was going for the under
on that I was looking for the over because I
didn't think thirty six was quite enough. I didn't it
was going to go, you know, above fifty necessarily. But
he's been so mobile, and look the Eagles right down
scuffling a little bit, you know, Rickson, You and I
kind of talked about like I feel like the Eagles
are like the Chiefs a couple of years ago of
(02:30):
off the Super Bowl win, big victory, and then the
next year the schedules is kind of tough and you're
just kind of chipping away winning some games, but you
see like the underlying weaknesses. How do you feel about
the Eagles going forward in the betting market after these
back to back.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Losses, Probably a team that you want to be betting against,
is the way that I would put it, especially because
they were dealing with some injuries on the defensive side
of the football. Kiln Carter didn't play, so that obviously
helped contribute to a monster game from Camp Skataboo. And
then Quenya Mitchell didn't play in the entire second half.
I mean, he's their best corner. So you lose so
many pieces and then you look up and say, wait,
this isn't the Eagles defense that I wants newt similar
(03:03):
like what happened to the Ravens, Right, You look up
and this isn't the same team that we were talking
about in the off season. Because it's so many different
guys that are now filling in crucial spots. So almost
Eagles can get healthy. Yeah, definitely concerned about them rest
of season.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
All right, everybody, let's get after it here, and let's
start with the first prop for Week six. As we
continue to look ahead and look at this the guys
are agreeing right out of the gate on a player.
We got Green Bay going against oh, the Cincinnati Bengals
and new quarterback Joe Flacco. So Welsh, how do we
want to approach this one? What prop do you see
that you just can't stay away from.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Welcome to Tucker Craft Week, everybody, because it's all Tucker
Craft all day. Me and Erickson are both gonna jump
on it and hopefully we can continue the hot streak
and just keep destroying the haters Tucker Craft. I Am
going to go and play receptions, but I'm gonna move
it up a marker because it is actually a pretty
nice three and a half if you just want to
play that straight. But there's some juice to it. But
(03:59):
if you altered up little bit in some places. By
the way, it is going to be at four and
a half right now. Getting plus one fifty two on
five receptions for Tucker Craft. Cincinnati currently is averaging almost
ten targets per game to tight ends and almost seven
catches to tight ends. In five matchups, three tight ends
(04:20):
have caught five or more passes, and the Denver tight
ends went over this. There was like a combo of
Troutman and Ingram. So in the five matches, tight ends
are crushing this, especially the three individuals. Kraft On himself,
he has hit this marker in two of four matchups.
He's had five catches. And if we look at the
coverage rates in here, Cincinnati's linebacker coverage is thirty two
(04:44):
of thirty two according to PFF, the worst in the NFL.
Safety coverage twenty nine of thirty two, so both spots. Obviously,
corner coverage can help a little bit. But we know
that Love is going to get him the ball. We
know that they stink against it, and we are getting
one and a half on five receptions for Tucker Craft,
which he has done this, which is defense has given up.
(05:06):
The only negative to this is if the Packers absolutely
blow this out and they start to get some of
these other guys involved. But even in some cases where
like the Lions went up against them and were hitting
them up, Sam la Porter ended up getting five receptions.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
So I really like this marker.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
I like being involved in betting on Tucker Craft, and
it's going to open up the discussion here in a
second of the age old receptions versus receiving yards, and
I went with the high plus return on receptions today.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
All right, now, Andrew Erickson, you're on the other side
of this board still with Tucker Craft, but the over
on the forty five and a half receiving yards, which
again that's the easy way out. Now, you're not gonna
get quite the same juice that Welsh is getting probably
on the five plus receptions, but it is a safer bet.
So look, there's nothing wrong with taking both of these
approaches here to Tucker Craft in this game because Cincinnati
(05:57):
is definitely the gift that keeps on giving.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Yeah, it's one of the worst defenses in the NFL
against tight ends that Welsh kind of laid out, but
specifically two receiving yards sixty nine yards per game allowed
to tight ends. That's a nice number. We love to
see that when we're attacking tight ends. So I guess
for me, it's Tucker Craft. How does he win? And
a lot of it's yards after the catch, like he
rips off a lot of big plays, So I get
I'm a little bit more hesitant just on the reception,
(06:20):
just because if we see the Packers just totally destroy
the Cincinnati Bengals, you know, is Craft even in the
game in the fourth quarter, Like, that's my only concern
for the volume. But like Welsh played out, you are
getting plus money on the receptions bet So even though
there is more risk, the reward is there. And either way,
Craft is going to eat in some capacity with yardage
receptions and maybe a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
One guy that's been eating quite a bit in the
last two weeks Stefon Diggs. Oh wait, the yards, the receptions,
everything's been there, and now he gets a game against
the New Orleans Saints. Now, look, I don't know if
this is an emotional letdown scenario here against the New
Orleans Saints, but Welsh clearly you see a trend line
going here with Stefan DAGs, who looks good, looks healthy,
looks like that ramp up is finally complete after offseason surgery,
(07:05):
a little slow in September, and then towards the end
of September really turning things on here as we head
into October. So how do we approach Stefan Diggs in
week six?
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Yeah, and you could play it almost like a college
how you were kind of laying it out like there
could be an emotional letdown, Like I'm not going to
play that because the thing I'm betting on is Stefan
Diggs is the number one in this offense. There's not
a question anymore. And that used to also not be
a good thing with the Patriots, like it didn't really
matter who was the number one. The beginning of the year,
he was trying to find his footing where he was
(07:35):
in the offense. They were spreading the ball out. The
last two weeks that kind of went away, specifically even
this week where in Week five he was the third
highest first read percentage of any wide receiver in the NFL.
Over the last two weeks, he's had two straight weeks
of one hundred yards or more receiving and he's had
sixteen targets over that time. So he is the alpha
(07:57):
number one. Drake May said very early on in the year,
I did to get the ball to Digs and see
what he does. And Diggs looks super, super comfortable. So
we take the number one in there, a guy that
has been crushing this over the last couple of weeks.
And you go to New Orleans who has given up
this receiving yards prop to team's top four wide receivers
in four or five games this year, So four or
(08:17):
five games that number one receiver killed this prop. And
if we want to look at matchup ratings, PFF gave
this a great matchup rating, ranking the Saints twenty.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Four to thirty two in coverage.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
So I think everything really speaks to this. Stephan Diggs
is making big plays.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
After the catch. He does a little bit of a both.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
He can have a lower ad dot and get the
receptions after he can make the big plays. I think
they're going to be able to kind of move a
little bit at will, and.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Diggs is the first rate option.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
So sixty point five receiving yards for Stephan Diggs, it's
a good spot. I wish it was lower. That would
be super super cool. But I had Diggs is, like
I said, killed this in the two, I'm not going
to be surprised if he has this at half.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
So Stefan Diggs receiving yard prop is my second.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
I think it's a pretty low number still, even if
it's a slightly underwhelming day, I think we can hit
this one, all right, Andrew, Let's go back to that
game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers
for a moment. One guy that had high expectations going
into the year was running back Chase Brown, and unfortunately
we haven't reached anything close to those expectations. But new
quarterback under center, I don't know how that changes the
(09:21):
dynamic of the offense. But when you have somebody who's
coming in here and just kind of learning the playbook
and figuring out the personnel, it seems like you'd have
to lean a little bit maybe on the running backs.
How do you see Chase Brown potentially working with Joe
Flacco in this one?
Speaker 4 (09:33):
I think he's going to catch a lot of targets
and a lot of receptions from Joe Flacco. I don't
have a lot of confidence trying to handicap this game
about what Flacco is going to do to this offense.
How many points are the Packers going to win? By
My most confident approach to this game is that Chase
Brown is going to catch over three and a half receptions.
Green Bay ranked second among defenses in terms of running
back receptions allowed per game at six point five. And
(09:55):
we look at what Flacco did with the Cleveland Browns,
again trying to copy and paste to figure out what
you could with the Bengals. Well, both are really bad
offensive lines and Flacco behind the Browns on bad offensive
line was targeting running backs at a twenty three percent
target share, that with the seventh highest mark in the NFL.
All three running backs on the Browns, we're seeing at
least three targets per game between Ford Sampson and Quinjohn Judkins.
(10:16):
So now if you're kind of condensing that into one guy, well, okay,
now we're cooking with gas here with Chase Brown getting
involved a lot from receptions if they have negative game script,
just more fuel to the fire for Chase Brown being
peppered with targets. So Chase Brown also has at least
three catches and all of his non Joe Burrow starts,
because hey, if you're not Joe Burt, you're basically gonna
checking down to running backs at a really high rate
(10:37):
behind this terrible Bengals offensive line. So that's my most
confident bet when it comes to well, besides Tuckercraft on
the Cincinnati offense.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
All right, so we're heavily involved in that game already,
three of the four bets in that contest, and I'm
not sure I haven't looked yet with the overunder on
the Micah Parsons, the sacks are going to be but.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
I think I want well, we have more tackles than
Jamar chays.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
He doesn't so far know because we've already proved that
the other show we talked about the other day. All right,
speaking of stats and speaking of having some fun when
you're placing your wagers, make sure you head up our sponsor,
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Let's get to the next one on our list. Here
to a tango. Biloa is next year going against a
(12:52):
Charger team that's going in the wrong direction. Talk about injuries, Well,
this team has been ravaged by them the last couple
of weeks. I already told Terrell we argue about this yesterday.
I got a bad field about this game. I'm just
staying away from it. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see, But
how do you want to approach Tua in this game
against Again, it's not just the offense here, but it's
also the defense, missing guys like Khalil Mack.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
I am regardless of everything. You don't you have a
bad feeling about it. I got a bad feeling about
Tua getting behind the center and taking a couple steps
and trying to throw the ball because we are going
to go passing yards under too twenty three and a half,
which I think is what you're talking about with some
of the defensive concerns is why that number is high,
because it really shouldn't be. Projections PFF projections around two
(13:35):
oh seven on the passing yards, most are under the
two to twenty marker. TUA has hit this under in
two of three games so far this season.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
I'm missing one in.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Their Chargers averaging just one hundred and eighty eight passing
yards per game to quarterbacks, obviously with some of the injuries,
but also ranking inside the top five and least passing
yards given up so far. Looking at the defensive grades,
this puts two matchup as a poor and they're going
up against now. Obviously this alters a little bit with
where the injuries are going to go. But you're looking
(14:07):
at defense that has a top ten coverage and wide receiver,
running back, and tight end. So the problem where this
bet can go a little bit awry is really like
a Devon Achan where a Devon Chen can rip off
a seventy yard but you had Malik Washington have no
coverage whatsoever. Four catches for zero yards. I think three
of them were negative. You've only got Jayalen Waddle. I mean,
(14:29):
I guess we can talk about Warren if you want.
He does his magical disappearing act in the second half.
They just don't have the big passing options. And I
think to what you were saying, there's a lot of
injuries and it's actually going to kind of lead to
my ugly, disgusting, sicko bet of the week at the
end is that this team, this Chargers team, is going
to try to slow this pace back down. They've been
one of the highest paced passing teams in the NFL.
(14:51):
I think you're going to have to get some of
it on the ground. So maybe this one smells and
reeks a little bit, but that's just the smell of
Tua trying to get at the ball downfield. And I'm
going to go with his under passing yards to twenty
three point five.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
All Right, there you have it. Let's get to the
next bet here. Bow Nicks is going to be in
the international game against the New York Jets. Still winless here,
So Andrew, let's talk about bo Nicks here for a moment. Obviously,
he hasn't quite played up to his potential. We saw
a slow start last year, but a big win obviously
last week against the Philadelphi Eagles has no doubt about that.
(15:25):
So what does all this mean here we're trying to
figure out betting on bon Knicks. What prop stands out
to you because he is a mobile quarterback. But of
course you are the undertaker.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
Yes, I am the undertaker. And when it comes to
bow Knicks, he has very stark splits when it comes
to whether he's a favorite or whether he's an underdog.
And you see that when how he performs. When he
plays bad teams, he plays really well, and when he
plays really good teams, he tends to struggle. The Broncos
are one of these teams that feasts on the week,
and they're facing the New York Jets this week, so
(15:56):
I'm expecting the Broncos to kind of steamroll. Here was
one of my best bets with Furman as well on
the Best Bet Show, the Broncos laying the points in London.
And that's why I'm going under on his rushing yards
because when he is a favorite, we bet the under.
Last week we bet the over and it came through
because they were underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles last three games.
Is a favorite. This season, Bonix has been under twenty
and a half rushing yards. He's been under that number
(16:18):
and the last eight of eleven games when the Broncos
have been favorite. So again, we just trust the process
here and this is all part of it. And the
reason I can find these splits is with the prop
bet cheat sheet, you can add a filter favorite or underdog,
and I think that helps a lot when you're trying
to figure out which trends are going to stick because
you just look at the overall rushing Bonix is a
really really up and down. But when you narrow by
underdog or favorite, you're flying. Oh there is a pattern here,
(16:41):
and that's something that I've been really profitable betting on
Bonicks when he's a favorite and underdog.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
He saved me a read just now or Andrew, I
love you now. I don't have to tell everybody online
about the prop bet cheat sheet, so yeah, I mean
go check it out bettingpros dot com slash props. So
what are you waiting for? Download the app, sak your
sports foks for free, do all that stuff. Prop bet
cheat sheet elite, that's what it is, all right, Let's
get to Ashton genty for pick number four. The rushing
yard total is seventy three and a half. All right,
(17:07):
welsh over or under for Genty in Week six.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Guys, my unders done. I got my under out of
the way.
Speaker 4 (17:13):
That was two up.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
You get one under out of me per week at best,
So my unders done. So we're in over territory right now.
We're gonna go over rushing yards for Ashton genty seventy
three point five. That number is starting to move. Projections
like it. Pff, they've got their singular projections. It's around
eighty or I'm sorry, seventy nine point two pros. Fantasy
(17:34):
Pros have an aggregate projection eighty point nine, so both
of those are already over third most yards. Ashton genty
has had it between weeks four and five, so the
last two weeks he kind of changed his stance, they
changed kind of the approach. He's averaging over one hundred
yards on the ground, has an almost fifty percent rate
of runs going for five yards or more during that
(17:55):
period of time. So it is dumb as it's kind
of seemed just his comfortability and obviously matchup based has
really gotten him into a good spot the Titans, where
on some rating grades have this as not the best matchup.
They're giving up over one hundred and twenty two yards
to running backs per game on the ground, and in
each game a running back has beat this rushing prop
(18:17):
or the split backfield where there's two backs have at
least had forty yards each or more. So singular backs
are beating this, or if you've got kind of a split,
both backs are eating.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
So this is a pretty good spot.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
They're leaning on him a bunch, obviously, they're kind of
riddled with injuries. Get the ball out of Gino's hands
and put it into Ashton Gent's let him rush and
we've got under eighty I think is a good marker here.
So Ashton Gent rushing yards is my fourth bet.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
All right, the next one, Undertaker, you're gonna have to
explain to me because Tony Pollard might not have been
spectacular this year, but the number he's facing at fifty
six and a half that you found here for the
under he has actually gone sixty seven last week, sixty
four of the week before then he was under this
of forty five, but then over with ninety two and
over in week one with sixty working our way backwards here,
(19:08):
So why do things come to a halt against the
Las Vegas Raiders this week for him?
Speaker 4 (19:12):
Well, how many of those games. Did you play with
Tajai Spears. Wow?
Speaker 1 (19:16):
The answer to that would be yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (19:17):
And that was just last week and we saw the
number nine dramatically beat his closing line prop. And twenty
five of those yards came in the fourth quarter when
the Titans should have already lost that game against the
Arizona Cardinals. So I'm going to betting against Tony Pollider
under fifty six and a half rushing yards the Raiders
I think have been under the raider A run defense
this year tenth fewest rushing yards allowed per game. Paul
(19:40):
has only hit this number twice in the last seven
games he's played with Tajai Spears, and all of the
coach speak out of the Titans camp has been that
Taji Spears role is going to increase another game back
from his ankle injuries. So I'm expecting closer to a
fifty to fifty split or sixty forty split in favor
of Pollard. I don't like the matchup. If you look
at the running backs that have actually gone over this
(20:00):
number against the Raiders this season, one vot was Jonathan
Taylor and he's still actually finished under his rushing prop.
He was over fifty six and a half yards but
still under what his closing line prop was. And Jerry
McNichols he was the other guy and was on that
really weird play where it looked like he got tackled
and then all of a sudden, you look, I'll be
like rush for like a seventy yard touchdown. So kind
of a fluky play. And both those games are on
the road, so the Raiders at home have been a
(20:21):
very stout run defense. I like the Raiders in this
spot as weird as it sounds, and I like the
bet on Ashton geny as well here. So if they
play ball control, they win this game. I think the
Titans struggled to run the football taking the ender on
Tony Pollard.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
All right, Well, going back for our last pick here
before we get to the touchdown calls layer in the show, here,
let's talk about that Chargers team again, because obviously Naji
harras done for the year, Amaro Hampton done for a
few weeks now, so now we're looking at Kamani Vidal
and Hassan Haskins. So do you have any lean here
in which how you might be able to make some
cash on them?
Speaker 2 (20:54):
This week I do and every week my fifth bet
I've just turned into my sicko bet of the week,
and we cashed it last week on the last play
of the game that we cashed it. Before we've been
cashing them Isaiah Bond got there. So we're going back sickos.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
I mean, if we're back in a thousand, what the
hell are you doing here? Just all Siico one.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
I'm tempted we'll have a Sicco week. We'll totally do
a Siico week.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
But I think that's one of those situations where if
you your efficiency is really good, but when you boost
the volume, the efficiency doesn't fall off.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
Fair Yeah, okay, we're gonna vomit.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
We're gonna be two sick So we're gonna we just
go with one sicko bet and this week it is
going to be banking on Hassan Haskins. Hassan Haskins rushing
yards thirty three point five over, that's the play. Obviously,
there's a big question about Vidal or Haskins. The team
has shown some early lean to Haskins, but I think
what you're also going to see is you're gonna see
Haskins do a lot of the like the early down
(21:44):
dirty work, and Vidal might be more of like a
third down back. But as I mentioned, like you know,
they've got some injuries, I think they're gonna want to
have some pace control, and I think it's gonna end
up going to Haskins here. The matchup works well for
a back that's gonna to get some volume, So that's
going The thing that's gonna kill me is if it
does go to vital or I don't know, if they
do just decide to pass the living crap out of
(22:06):
the ball and they rush nine times. But Miami is
currently giving up the third most rushing yards per game
per game right now. I mean you can absolutely run
across the board on them rankings. They're thirtieth of thirty
two in defensive grade, their defensive front is twenty eight
of thirty two, and most projections are over this are
aggregate MPFF, the two I like to kind of site between.
(22:27):
They're over this number. So this to me feels like
we are going to get ten plus maybe ten to
twelve carries on Haskins against this defensive matchup. I think
you can get over to forty and I think both
of these running backs are going to be involved to
a level that you know, I don't want to bet
on Vidal, but I think Haskins is going to get
that like first and second down work.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Maybe they're gonna.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Split series, but I really just love the matchup that's
going on here against Miami, and I'm banking that we're
gonna have ten plus carries for Haskins and then we're
we're gonna slam it. So sickle bet of the week
because on Haskins rush yards.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
Let's go all right, let's go Andrew Ricks and you
got one more in the bank here for the props
before we start to look at it for the touchdowns.
So where are you going for your last pick of
the week? Is it a sick o bet? Who knows?
Speaker 4 (23:11):
We're going to do all with the Seattle Seahawks and
the Jacksonville Jaguars from taking the over on Kenneth Walker
going over nine and a half receiving yards. The Jaguars
defense has a lot of the fourth most yards and
catches to running backs this season. Six different running backs
they have faced have gone over ten receiving yards against them,
and Walker. If you look at the propat Chiejet you'll
see that he's gone for thirteen plus receiving yards in
(23:32):
three of his last four games. However, he did actually
hit the over last week. He had a twelve yard catch,
but it was called back because of an offensive penalty.
But the usage suggests, hey, no, this is still part
of their game plan. If there was no penalty, he
would have gone over in four straight games. So aggression
to the meme here, He's going to go over in
a really good matchup. I saw like ken Walker with
the receiving yards all right.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
Before we get to the touchdown calls, remember the Touchdown
score Report is available at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown.
If you're looking for an edge, and I know you are,
for your touchdown bets, use the score report. It compares
anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to
help you identify the very best in any time touchdown
bet So again bettingpros dot com slash touchdown. That's the
place to find the help with the TD calls. Or
(24:14):
you could just follow me every week. Since I'm on
the leaderboard at six, let's go. I'm keeping it simple
this week. I am looking to get look. Stefan Diggs
has been great. It's been a great run. I'm very
excited about it, but I want to get back to
some basics here for the Patriots to get Hunter Henry
a touchdown, and I'm getting a nice number here plus
one eighty five. I know Debro has a lot of
glowing things in the primer over on fantasypros dot Com
about this matchup against the Saints this week, so I'm
(24:36):
gonna try to take advantage of that. See what happens
when you read kids, you learn things. And then I'm
gonna go with John Robinson, who is a really good
matchup against Buffalo Bills. He's rested, he's coming off a bie.
I just think they're gonna feed the beast here over
and over and over again. The problem is it's heavily juice.
So what do we do when the juice is heavy
on a guy that's a lock to score a touchdown? Well,
(24:56):
we chop the game in half and we take our
chances with the plus money plus one forty five for
Bijon Robinson this week to score a touchdown in the
first half. Again, if he scores it in the second half,
not the first. I don't get this, but I'm willing
to make that risk. All right, well, let's get to
you and your touchdown calls. I can only assume for
the two of you, everybody's just betting Tucker Craft. Is
(25:18):
that where we are already? We come full circle on
the show.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
Hey, I was first on the sheet and I immediately
put Tucker Craft, and then I said, let's figure everything
else out.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
So I do have a play.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
I got plus one eighty five on Tucker Craft. As
mentioned before, this is a phenomenal matchup. We love the targets.
I mean, get us five catches fifty yards in a
score and we can just go three and zero on
our Tucker Craft bets. So I'm gonna try to get
back in it. You guys have definitely been the touchdown callers.
I am lagging here, so I'm not gonna make any
room on ericson because he's gonna join me on that one.
(25:48):
But I'm also gonna go with Jackson Smith and Jigbo.
I believe has like you know, a second or third
highest on the projected totals just kind of across the board.
And how he's gonna eat the Jags. I think actually
given up receiving touchdowns, so wide receivers over the last
two weeks, but that was against the Niners and the
Chiefs Bengals. Texans have kind of ate them up. Jackson
Smith and Jigga is going to get a million million targets.
(26:10):
Matchup rating is really really good for him. So I
like that at plus one thirty. So Jasin and Tucker
Craft for me.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
All right, touchdown, calls Erickson, who do you have for
week six?
Speaker 4 (26:20):
So, like Welsh mentioned, I'm also on the Tucker Craft
bandwagon here because that's how we're going to catch you, Joe.
We're just gonna bet on Tucker Craft to catch touchdown.
So that's we're going to close the gap and the
touchdown far.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
I got news for you boys. If he doesn't score
a touchdown and I get too, well, boy, you can
see me starting to pull away. It's like it's like
it hurts through that pick six last night. That guy
and flat just kept running and run and running. Cocky,
they did catch him by it. Let me let me
rephrase that.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
But I do have actually a quick story with that.
So we're watching the game and it was right after
the broadcasters and now it's like, oh yeah, like the
Eagles have like an eighty eight or the Giants have
an eighty eight percent chance to winning this game. And
then I'm starting to see the Eagles drive down the
film like eighty eight percent, Like what's going on? Immediately
throws the pick six on the interception. I'm like, oh,
(27:08):
that's why they have an eighty eight percent chance of
leading this game.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
A little bit behind sometimes on there. Look, it's just
it's amazing how the I like, well, I'm gonna get
back to the touchdown calls for but just one second.
It's amazing how the vibes in that stadium are so different.
And and look, New York is one of those places, man,
when you capture the crowd and and they are into
the game. It's tough man. Tough day for Philadelphia too, Boy,
Eagles lose the Philly's elimited for the playoffs. Welsh, it
(27:32):
is a tough, tough day. You're gonna go get in
your hogies and your coke and your feelings over there
in Philadelphia.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
It's a lot of screaming about Jalen Hurts and O'Ryan
kirkring going on right now.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
A lot of everyone's really upset about.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
Batteries are going to be sold out everywhere across Philly, so.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
They can everyone go home cry in your cokes. All right, ericson,
let's talk about touchdown costs. Go ahead, fist.
Speaker 4 (27:53):
So Craft has scored a touchdown in both the Packers'
home games this year, so he's been working on his
Lambeau leap and he's ready to go. Bangals upot four
touchdowns the tight ends in their last three games. So
that's just fueling more for the Tucker Craft love. And
then I'm doing a longer shot here plus four to
twenty five, so I'm not taking any easy minus money.
(28:14):
I'm going big. Malik Washington wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins.
Tyreek Hill is no longer part of this offense, and
Malik Washington didn't see necessarily expanded role. We thought that
he would see whoever, he did run more routes. He
saw more targets than Nick Westbrook a kine, so he
was still kind of operating as that wide receiver too.
And he also had two red zone targets last week.
So again he generated a lot of negative yards because
(28:36):
he didn't rip off any yards after the catch. But
the Chargers defense is one of the worst defense in
the NFL in mistackle rate. And you know who scored
against them last week, a guy who profiles very similar
to Milik Washington, Deebo Samuel. So I think that in
a game that could get kind of whacky, like you
kind of indicated Joe between the Chargers of Dolphins. I
think Lake Washington could be a sneaky guy to score.
And if you look at the Betting Pros Anytime Touchdown Report,
(29:00):
sixth highest EVY bet for the report, leak Washington.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Interesting stuff there, very good. Like I said, I'm just
got you're feeling about that game. By the way, I
wanted to bet this touchdown, but it's not on there.
So this is just my bonus for everybody. As soon
as you have Mecha Buka one shows up, just bet it. Please.
It's not on there right now because God One's now out.
They're still waiting about who's gonna play quarterback for the
forty nine ers. It happens every week. It should just
be mac Jones. Just play mac Jones, right well, should
(29:25):
be the great quarterback in the history of our our
lifetime is Wade mac Jones.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne are going to be on
my betting card. I think I saw that our friend
Kelly posted that Bucky Evans and Godwin have actually all
been ruled out.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
Yeah, so Chub just went out too for the week.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
So all those Reco Dowdle that is the one right now.
I could not put on this. I could not put
on this card because they would not release it. But
that's my freebee. Rico'dowdle's something touch down, rushing yard, receiving yard,
do something with.
Speaker 1 (29:57):
In the early two thousands, Reco Dawdle something spoor and
they were.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Hey, you know what that that could be the camp
Scataboo and Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
You know cover band.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
Sounds like an Oasis song.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
Actually, no, the Camp Scattoo and Jackson our cover band.
It needs to be called like the Blue Medical Tent
or something like, because that's all that's real. They all
want to go to party. Because I was like, you
got darting there, then Scattaboo's trying to get in there.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
I think that's the party in the Blue Tent is
definitely the first single off that album, without a doubt.
All right, make sure you drop your comments below your
favorite props your touchdown calls four Week six of the
NFL We Love hear from all you. Let's have some
fun here. Subscribe to the channel again Ring the belt
Lickos Ding so you never miss a piece of content.
Here go download hard Rock bet app and don't forget
everybody as well. Download the Betting Pros app. Use the
(30:41):
prop bet cheet sheet to help you bet all your props.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for the Welsh and the Undertaker. Andrew
ericson I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time, kids, peace.
Speaker 5 (30:51):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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