November 21, 2025 • 25 mins
Join Joe Pisapia, Andrew Erickson and Chris Welsh for their best NFL prop bets in Week 12!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
AJ Barner Over 25.5 Receiving Yards - 0:03:09
Jameson Williams Over 63.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards - 0:04:41
Andre Iosivas Over 3.5 Receptions - 0:06:33
Chase Brown Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards - 0:08:41
Hard Rock Bet - 0:10:01
Jacoby Brissett Over 1.5 Passing TDs - 0:11:03
Shedeur Sanders Over 15.5 Completions - 0:12:04
BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:13:34
AJ Brown Over 57.5 Receiving Yards - 0:14:40
Jake Ferguson Under 30.5 Receiving Yards - 0:16:34
Breece Hall Over 15.5 Receiving Yards - 0:17:49
Brian Thomas Jr. Under 4.5 Receptions - 0:19:15
TD Calls - 0:20:55
Outro - 0:24:17
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey P, joep z Apia
and this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead
to the props for week twelve and the NFL. And
to help me do it, the Welsh, the Andrew Erickson
and of course meet Joey P. We got touchdown calls
to make, We've got dreams to come true just for you.
We've got it all here and of course we want
(00:22):
you to be with us for all of it. So
subscribe to the YouTube channel and don't forget to ring
the belt to the ghost ding so you never miss
a piece of content on the channel. Download the Betting
Pros app. We're gonna use some of those prop bet
cheat sheet tools here on the show today, gentlemen, before
we begin Thursday night football is in the books. Ericson
you and I talked about it before the show, but
Welsh came into the room a little later. Welsh, are
(00:43):
the Buffalo Bills officially done? Has the window closed on
the Bills dynasty that never was?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Ooh, the never dynasty? Is the dynasty not the dynasty
that it never was? I don't think the windows closed.
They've still got Josh Allen. I think when you've got
Josh Allen and Jamie Cook, it's still there. It's just,
you know, it's like like creeping open a little bit,
you know. I mean, it's not locked, it's not completely done.
Speaker 1 (01:07):
I just don't.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
I don't look at that team and think that they're
completely devoid of being able to do anything. But boy,
their offensive line was horrific sure last time. I mean,
I mean, I don't know how they're gonna be able
to do anything with that offensive line right now. But
I don't know. I kind of think they're always in
it with Josh Allen, just like the Chiefs. Chiefs are
playing horrible. Patrick Mahomes has just been turning the ball
over at least turnover worthy throws and stuff, and it's
(01:30):
like they're still in it, you know, five and five,
they're still in it.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
I don't know, man, I got more faith in the
Chiefs this year, to be honest with you, than I
do the Buffalo Bills Ericson. I got much respect to
the Houston Texas defense. Those guys are dogs. They're fun
to watch, and if you like defense, I do. And
Obogman does. Also Texans are a fun watch, but yeah,
watch it hates hates defense, all offense all the time.
Everybody go deep. But Ericson, they takeaway from Thursday night
(01:53):
before we look ahead to the weekend.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
All is right in the AFC. They put up a
graphic of the AFC play off picture and at the
top Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Broncos. This is the AFC. I
remember before Patrick Mahomee showed up, like, these are the teams.
There was a Peyton Manning went in the division. Ben
Rothsburg went in the division Denver, winning a division that
nobody else wanted to win before Patrick mahomes showed up.
So yeah, all was right in the AFC once again,
(02:18):
with the Bills trailing the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
All right, Ericson, you were four and one last week
on the Best Bet Show. But the inverse on the
Prop show, Welsh didn't want you to be alone, so
he also nopes had one to five. So I want
you guys to stop being together so much.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Okay, I want to And you know what I decided
be great Instead, I decided I would love to get
this stat in. I was like, we're gonna go hair
again because I went hat last week and I was horrible.
So I'm like, ooh, we're done with Maybe that hat
I'm done with forever. But maybe it's an overall hat thing.
So we went full hair. I probably need to go
back and look and see what my record is hat
(02:54):
versus hair so far this season. But we got to
turn it around some way because Bully good.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Well, it's okay everyone. I still gave you a touchdown calls,
So I'm up to twelve right now. Ericson's got eleven.
Welsh is at ten, so still pretty good there on
the TDS, so we'll give you those at the end
of the show. All right, Welsh, Let's start with Seattle.
They've got a match up this week against the Tennessee Titans.
Heavily favored in this one. So how does that affect
some of the players there that you want to wager on. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
I one thing I did not do after this bad
week was be like, I'm not gonna go turn it
around and get a bunch of chalky players. Nope, I'm
just locked into where I want to go. I'm not
taking big, big name players. I'm trying to find the
best Edges and aj Barner feels like one of those.
I'm gonna take his receiving yards over at twenty five
point five over. Barner has gone over this in four
(03:40):
of his last seven games, specifically last week where he
saw ten eleven targets caught ten balls going up against
this Titans defense since Week two. They have given up
this receiving yard prop to opposing tight ends every single
week since Week two, so week one is the only
time they did not do that. Their defense ranks twenty
seventh in no sorry, they are also averaging that's the
(04:02):
next stat. They're averaging five catches forty seven yards to
opposing tight ends on the year, so those work well.
And this is a PFF stat that I like. AJ
Barner ranks fourth among tight ends and receiving yards from
the inline alignments. Titans defense ranks twenty seventh in receiving
yards allowed to inline tight ends this season, so he's
been getting his targets. The Titans are giving this up
(04:25):
on average a lot, and this works really well. I
love AJ Barner. I kind of wanted to get him
in the touchdown calls just because he also plays the
push push quarterback there. But we're gonna go receiving yards
over for aj Barner to kick it off.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Okay, Ericson, I know you and I all week have
talked about this game, the Detroit Lions and the New
York Giants. If things go south for us, I'm telling
you right now, Monday is going to be miserable for
me and Ericson. We are heavily invested, and I know
one player we both like is Jamison Williams, So let's
talk about how we want to approach him in Week twelve.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Well, I do like our Lions odds cause it is
going to be Jameis Winston starting, so like going to
a very turnover prone quarterback, but going to the Lions
offensive pieces. This was part of one of my parlays
for this week, Jameson Williams going over sixty three and
a half rushing and receiving yards. This might be on
my betting guard every single week from here on out
(05:18):
because all the lines have is a bunch of Dome
games coming up. Samuela Porta is out with a back injury.
He's not coming back this season, so that slots in
Jamis Williams and Alman ros Saint Brown as the top
two targets. And an offense is going to be playing
in dome games every single week until Week eighteen. So
Jamison Williams, he's had a bigger role since the team's
by week we've seen his target rate jump dramatically because
(05:39):
he's no longer just running clear out routes like he's
running more stuff underneath crossers and that's able to maximize
his elite speed. He's gone over sixty five or sixty
three and a half rushing and receiving yards four of
his last five games. He's facing the New York Giants
this week, who've allowed the fifth most receiving yards to
wide receivers. They're also twenty fifth worst in terms of
facing play action passes. James Williams is just going to
(06:01):
continue to cook. So every single week, I think the
jmail over needs to be on your card.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Okay, all right, I like it. Feel good about it.
Indoorcat Jared Goff is coming back. Everyone.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I would have put it on mine, but Erickson for
the second straight week got to the sheet before me
gets the worm bab and I showed him that all season.
It was ten weeks of me first, and then he's
gotten to it last two weeks but I would have
one hundred percent put this on. So well, I love that.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
I text you next week before I put the show out,
and then you can get ahead, you can get jump
on it. I'll give you an eta thirty seconds. I'll
let you boys fight it out. It'll be like running man.
It's gonna be a good time. Next up here, Jamar
Chase out for the week because of a suspension because
well you just don't spit on people in class. That'll
get you sent right home, right to the principal's office,
then home for the whole week, and that's where Jamar
(06:44):
Chase is going to stay. So actually on the FP
live stream, we're just talking about Yoshi vas and how
he might have to get a little bit more involved
in this game. So Welsh, what does that mean for
his prop market?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Yeah, we talked, We've talked about it all week long
on the Wide Receiver Rank show ericson Fitzie and I
and you know, getting him into the thirties. We have
to assume there's going to be an uptick in volume
due to Spitgate, and it'll be t Higgins and then
going to Andre Yoshivas is gonna be the number two
here I looked at both sides. We always do our
receptions versus receiving yards battle receiving yards. It's closing in
(07:15):
on forty. The receptions are giving you plus money at
three and a half, so that's where I went. I
went three point five over receptions at plus money, right
around close to one plus one point fifteen. Three times
this season when he has seen five, he has seen
five or more targets, and in two of those he
has got five balls each. He's caught five balls in
each one of those. Higgins is the number two wide
(07:37):
receiver to Chase, who, by the way, has been targeted
more than any wide receiver has. The eighth has seen
eight or more targets in four of his last five games,
so that didn't make sense. Chase number one targeted receiver,
Higgins has seen a boatload of targets as the number two.
If we get burrowback, that makes this even better. But
either quarterback is slinging the ball and Yoshi vas is
(07:58):
going to see an increase in his target It's most
projections specifically, and I look over at like PFF, they
have the lean to this around three point seven. So
I love the for marker here for him to catch
a bunch. I think they're going to be slinging the ball.
It can't just go to t Higgins. T Higgins is
still a pretty solid bet, obviously the Christian Gonzales effect.
But Yoshibas has done this when he has seen an
(08:19):
increase in targets during the year. He's going to see
it in this game. So give me four receptions at
plus money for Yoshibas.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
As of right now recording this, we're still waiting for
word on Joe Burrow right now. They need quote unquote
additional time to decide whether or not he's really ready
to go. But he did practice with the ones on Thursday,
so that's a good indication. So we'll see. Maybe we
do get Joe Burrow back. But either way, we're still
going to have Chase Brown working a lot in this
game potentially. Now here's the thing. When it comes to
(08:46):
the Patriots defense, they've been very good this year, very good,
specifically against the run. So Andrew Erickson, you are the undertaker.
Are we taking under numbers here on Chase Brown? Are
we going over?
Speaker 3 (08:56):
We are going over on Chase Brown. Ninety and a
half rushing and receiving yard Chase Brown has turned into
an absolute workhorse that we drafted him as in the
second round of Fantasy this year. The last couple of weeks,
last four games, four straight over one hundred yards from scrimmage.
I'm expecting him to see as much volume as he
can handle because Samaji Pieren is out yet again. And yes,
(09:16):
Patriots defense has been really tough on running backs as rushers,
not as good against receivers, and we know Chase Brown
has dual usage. He's been catching a ton of passes
out of the backfield from Joe Flacco and I would
expect that not to change. If it's Joe Burrow coming
off a foot injury, we'll see how mobile he is
behind the offensive line for the Bengals. So either way,
I think Chase bar is still going to get peppered
with a lot of targets out of the backfield. And
(09:37):
to the Patriots run defense, I don't think it's going
to be nearly as good because Milton Williams is not
going to be playing in this game. He was placed
on end reserve after he got hurt against the Jets,
So I think that's a huge loss to the interior
of the new England defense. So I think Chase Brown's
going to be a little bit more effective than most
people are giving him credit for as a rusher. And
we know he's explosive in the passing game as well.
So four straight's gonna be five straight after Sunday.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Okay, there you have it, everybody, next up here pick
number three for the boys. Before we get there, just
want to shout out our sponsor of the show, and
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one hundred gambler and a Zona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Welsh.
(11:04):
What do you have up next for the people? For
your third pick of the week On the prop department.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
We're jumping into the quarterback space and in the fantasy
world he's actually a top ten quarterback this week. Just
came off of a record setting game of completions against
the forty nine ers. Jacoby Brissett, and we are going
to play passing touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brissett has
actually done this in five straight games, so every single
games a starter, he has thrown two or more touchdowns.
(11:30):
The Jags have allowed two passing touchdowns in four of
the last five games, and on average are giving up
a little over two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the
entire year. Trey McBride is going to eat in this obviously.
I love Michael Wilson. Brissette's kind of a wildcarp The
running game is also a wild card here, So I
really like this setup defensive matchup to Brissette. He's been
(11:53):
throwing him, they've been giving him up. Give me two
touchdowns for Jacoby Brissett, and I really should have put
Trey McBride on here. Locke Tray McBride down for a
touchdown as well.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Okay. Also making the first start of the NFL this
week is Shador Sanders. So Andrew Erickson. What does that
mean for the Cleveland Browns. I know we talked about
them potentially winning this game against the Las Vegas Raiders,
So what does that mean for sure?
Speaker 2 (12:16):
This has to be an undert right.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Nope, no, no, because I'm a slave to the numbers.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Here.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
This is a five star bet coming in the prop
bet cheap cheap because fifteen and a half completions for
an NFL quarterback, this is too low of a number
the Jets. The Jets offense this season has been averaging
seventeen completions per game, So you're telling me that Shudur
can't even be better than justin fields Tyro Taylor combined
in one game against the Las Vegas Raiders in a dome. Look,
(12:42):
I think that this number is being way too heavily
weighed on based on a half of Shadar Sanders when
he didn't prepare to start that game at all. He's
working with the ones all week to play the Las
Vegas Raiders. He's going to get over fifteen and a
half completions. Dylan Gabriel was over this number four of
his five games as a starter this year. The Raiders
are allowing over twenty two completions per game. Only one
(13:03):
quarterback all year has failed to hit sixteen completions against
the Raiders. So yeah, last week he had four completions.
It was terrible, It was awful. But I think that
you're getting value on this number because of how bad
that that second half was for Suter Sanders, and you know,
if he completes that touchdown pass, I'm sure that the
narrative around Shotter is way different.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
I agree with it. I said that same thing if
that gets completed.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
So I just think we're getting insane value here at
fifteen and a half completions. Again, like I said, five
star bet per the prop bet cheat sheet slave to
the numbers. So I'm taking the over.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
And if you want to see the prop bet cheat
sheet again, it's available for free betting pros dot com
slash props, or you can just download the Betting pros app.
There you'll see all the projections against all of the
prop set numbers there and then the best odds you're
going to find. So sink your sports books for free
on the Betting pros app that wea. You can utilize
the prop bet cheat sheet there. And this is one
of the Again I'm with Andrew here, I think it
(13:54):
is a little bit of a different narrative. A couple
drops down there, Like I'm not stating Shore look good,
but there are a couple of moments where the team
didn't help them out in a full week of practice
with the ones I think could go a long way.
He's better than Dylan Gabriel.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
By the way, I stared at the Browns just all
their receiving AIRD props as well. If you believe this,
if you want to have positive correlation, Fannin's number is low.
He had that twenty five yard or two Fan and
Jerry Judy's reception prop I think it's plus money at
four reception. So if you believe Shador is going to
have a solid game with completions, both Fannin and Judy
(14:27):
are actually really good positive correlations that you could tie in.
And I almost put Fan. I really wanted to put
Fan in on this list. I'm just terrified of Shador.
But I do like both of those and I stared
at them for a long time.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
All Right, let's see what else Welsh is staring at here.
Let's take a look at AJ Brown. Because Welsh, I
think we're in the minority here. I think both of
us think that this is a good situation for AJ Brown,
and we haven't said that a lot now this year,
and a lot has worked out for AJ Brown. But
the numbers all the way down to fifty seven and
a half. I'm in on this one. So are you
you tell the people?
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Yeah, this was one that like the week started now
is just like AJ Brown, Dallas Cowboys, Like we're gonna
find a way. We're gonna find a way to justify this.
There's a couple things that really don't In his first meeting,
he absolutely got shut out, which I think is going
to bounce back. He has hit this in two of
his last four games. This receiving yard prop which isn't
like the most resounding cell, but last week he did
(15:21):
have eleven targets seven catches. Was not able to get
the ball deep. But that's where things start to change
here because Cowboys defense have been pretty straightforward. It's a turnstile.
They're averaging the third most receiving yards given up in
the NFL. An interesting stat from PFF, Jalen Hurtz is
ranking third in completions of twenty yards or more downfield.
(15:42):
Dallas Cowboys defense ranks thirty first in deep completions allowed
in the NFL. So those are big chunk plays. That's
what I'm looking for out of AJ Brown. Fantasy pros
projections absolutely love this has him at sixty nine yards nice.
Other projections like PFF are in the ballpark. On the positive,
like you know, three or four yard cushion, I think
(16:02):
this is a fantastic defensive matchup for it. I'm going
to talk about him in the touchdown range. I know
Deante Smith kind of got you know, shut out and
then obviously because I bet on him, Maybe I shouldn't
bet on Eagles wide receivers now that I think about it,
that this will be like it could be the DeVante
Smith game. But I think this is the potential for
the Eagles to really get the ball in the air
because of how the Cowboys are in their secondary, some
(16:25):
play action, some big plays and just those big chunk plays.
I could get this out of two catches from aj Brown.
So I really like this receiving yard number fifty seven
point five over now.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Staying in this game as I was researching from stuff
this week, Look, philadelph Eagles have been terrific. They've given
out the second few his yards to tight ends this
year and just one touchdown. So what does that mean
that Jake Ferguson has in store for him this week?
Erickson not a lot.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Of production, Jack Ferguson, I'm not expecting a big game
from him in any capacity. Now his number is not
that high thirty and a half receiving yards, but he's
been under and four of seven games at this number
with CD Lamb back in the lineup, including three of
his last four games. The passing game for Dallas has
really focused on the top two wideouts, which I don't
blame Dak, Like these are the guys who want to
throw the football to. They're dynamic after the catch. And
(17:11):
the way that the matchup against the Eagles, Quenyang Mitchell
can only cover one guy at a time, so I
think Dak is okay, who's Queenya Mitchell not covering? I'm
gonna throw it to that guy. So expecting Pickens and
the Lamb to eat here like they have the last
couple of weeks and Ferguson kind of phase out, especially
against the Eagles. He's zeroing three his last three matchups
at thirty and a half receiving yards versut the Eagles,
so they've been able to get him out of the
(17:32):
offensive game plan. And like you said at the top, Joe,
Eagles allowing thirty under three yards per game to tight end,
So Jake Ferguson yat it. Get its a low number
but I don't think he's hitting it this week.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
I don't know either, my friend, he's a fade for
me this week in a big way. Okay, well, one
more pick for everybody to make and then onto the touchdown.
So Welsh, let's talk about Breese Hall. This game for
the Jets, the receiving yards is fifteen and a half.
Are we going over or under that number?
Speaker 2 (17:57):
We are going over? This used to be like a
lock that where Brese Hall was getting the ball out
of the backfield receiving all year long, and then you know,
justin fields continues to happen. So now we get tyron
ed at quarterback Tyrod opportunity for the ball to start
moving down the field a bit more, which is a positive.
I was looking at his checkdown percentage around eight and
a half percent, which definitely not at the top of
(18:17):
the league, but it's like it's like at median or
a little bit above average, which I really like. In
the receiving game for Briess though, the Ravens present a
really good receiving matchup grade according to PFF, and they
seem kind of like what I talked about in that
Cowboys game is this defense seems to give up big
chunk plays to running backs catching out of the backfield.
(18:39):
They're on average giving up around four catches per game
to running backs, but this is for over thirty three
yards seven and a half yards per reception given up
to running backs. So I think this line's in really
really well for Breess Hall to get involved in the game. Obviously,
if they're going to be playing from behind in spots
and not running the ball, you want to get the
ball in Breese's hands. I think Tyrod will do that.
(19:00):
We're gonna go old school with Breefe Hall getting back
into the receiving yard games. And I might even pop
this up a little bit into like the twenty five's
or something like that. But I love this at fifteen
point five over for Briefe Hall receiving yards.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Now, look, we've seen, or I guess we'll see what
Tyrod Taylor will do, but we have seen a lot
of what Brian Thomas hasn't done this year. It's been
kind of disappointing.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
Andrew.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
It's you were the Brian Thomas wisper last year. Okay,
it's been being polite man. Well, it's interesting because you
have been here. Look last year you were the guy
leading the charge of Brian Thomas when I didn't hear
anybody else really leading that at all. And you are
one hundred percent right. And this year, Brian Thomas, just
in this Liam Cohen offense, for whatever reason, things have
not worked out. Health has been an issue too. So
(19:41):
is there a way for us to profit off all
the bad news surrounding him this year?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
In Week twelve, take beyonder under four and a half
receptions for Brian Thomas Junior. He could get ten targets
and we're not even sure if he's going to catch
more than half of them because he's had problems holding
on to the football, like you said, dealing with a
shoulder injury. He's come off an ankle sprain injury. If
he comes back and plays this week, So look we
saw last week Ricky Piersoll missed a bunch of time,
comes back, not involved in the offense whatsoever. So there
(20:08):
are so many outs with this. With Brian Thomas Junior
taking the under, He's only gone over this number in
two of his eight games played this season. And when
you go back to why he was so good his
rookie year, I mean it's because Mac Jones like that
was the connection that was like dialed in because his
last ten games with Trevor Lawrence, he's gone over the
number twice, so he's hitting me under an eighty percent
(20:29):
hit rate, going for five catches in this offense. So
this is another five star bet and I absolutely love it.
Almost fell out of a chair when I saw this
number and it was a plus money when I was
able to get it, So I still think you're getting
great value on it. Look, I hate to label anything's
about my lock of the week because that's a guaranteed
play it's going to buy.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
But this is my lock of the week. Brian okay R.
Don't say it too loud. It's a lowercase L for
the lock of the week. Let's get onto the touchdown calls.
And remember if you want help with the touchdown calls
in your week twelve and hit up the Touchdown score Report.
It is at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown, and I'll
give you the latest and eight time touchdown stats to
(21:08):
prop bet odds and projections to he'll identify the very
best in any time touchdown bets. I'm gonna go with
a guy who's been red hot who's trying to get
the bag, and that's George Pickens. I think the Dallas
Cowboys are gonna beat the Eagles. That's my hot take
of the week. It's my upset special. We'll see if
I'm right or wrong. Plus one sixty for George Pickens
to get in the end zone, and I think he's
going to yet again this week. And then surprise, surprise,
(21:30):
I'm where Ericson is on, Jamison Williams and Welsh too.
I mean, let's be honest, we're all in on this
one plus one fifty five. That's where I'm going for
my two touchdown calls. Two receivers. A little risky. You
think I'd go with one of the running backs, but
I like the value on Williams and Pickens there over
plus one fifty for both of those guys. Wells, where
are you going for your touchdown calls for Week twelve?
Speaker 2 (21:50):
I am also weighted in the wide receivers. I usually
love to sit in the tight end world, but my
two wide receivers first up, I mentioned aj Brown. Cowboys
have given up five touchdowns to wide receivers over the
last three weeks, and seventeen touchdowns to wide receivers on
the year so far. So I love AJ Brown in
a touchdown spot here and this is a higher plus
(22:11):
money and that was plus one thirty five. By the way,
this play is over four to one and I love it.
I think I might like it more than the AJ
Brown one. I'm going with Xavier Legett, ninth most in
zone targets in the NFL. I think you saw two
last week. They are trying to get him the ball.
The forty nine ers secondary is trash. They're going to
(22:33):
have a hyper focus in the red zone if they're there.
Of course on Tetoroa McMillan and Bryce Shump loves to
throw to Xavier Ligette and the forty arews can't stop anyone.
So at over four to one on a guy that
is top ten in the NFL and end zone targets, yep,
Xavier Ligett. That's one of my favorite touchdown calls this week.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
All right, Andrew Erickson, give me two more guys. They're
gonna find paydirt hit the goal line.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
In Week twelve, Hunter Henry anytime touchdown plus one forty.
He's facing the Cincinnati Bengals, who we all know are
the worst defense in the NFL against guarding tight ends,
and Henter Henry was so close to scoring a touchdown
last week against the New York Jets. Drake May was
dropping back to throw it to him and it got
tipped and Hunter Henny was not able to secure the touchdown.
But he will write the wrong from Thursday Night Football
(23:17):
and score against the Cincinnati Bengals here from Drake May.
So I like him plus one forty t Higgins plus
twenty plus one to twenty five in the same game.
To Higgins has scored nine straight home games, five of
his last six games played. There is no Jamar Chase
t Higgins, even if it's getting even if it's chrischickgan
Zales on him in shadow coverage. Well, Ti Higgins can
win fifty to fifty balls even in the red zone.
(23:37):
So whether it's Burrow, whether it's Flacco, I think they're
going to go to him in the red zone. So
I like his odds to score here. And then my
bonus one Taysom Hill plus three twenty the Saints our
favorites at home last time. Tasom Hill faced the Falcons
last season two rushing touchdowns, so they've been talking up
Taysom Hill a lot this week. The offensive coordinator is
talking about Taysom Hill. The head coach is talking about
(23:59):
Taysom Hill. He's back from his injury, full go. He's
so versatile. We love using this guy in the red zone.
So although everyone wants Alvin Kamara to bounce back in
a big way, don't be surprised if it's Taysom Hill
with the vulture touchdowns this week.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Here you go, Taysom Hill action. I'm sure that I'll
throw things way out of whack there, but a good
number on that one as well. All right, everybody, So
make sure if you haven't already, download the Betting Pros
app and the hard Rock bet Sportsbook app to tie
those two things together. Sing all your sportsbooks for free
and let the tools help you get the most out
of Week twelve, and subscribe to the YouTube channel. That'll
do it for us. But the story of the game
(24:32):
goes on for the well should Andrew ericson. I'm Joey p.
We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
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Speaker 2 (25:00):
St
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey P, joep z Apia
and this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead
to the props for week twelve and the NFL. And
to help me do it, the Welsh, the Andrew Erickson
and of course meet Joey P. We got touchdown calls
to make, We've got dreams to come true just for you.
We've got it all here and of course we want
(00:22):
you to be with us for all of it. So
subscribe to the YouTube channel and don't forget to ring
the belt to the ghost ding so you never miss
a piece of content on the channel. Download the Betting
Pros app. We're gonna use some of those prop bet
cheat sheet tools here on the show today, gentlemen, before
we begin Thursday night football is in the books. Ericson
you and I talked about it before the show, but
Welsh came into the room a little later. Welsh, are
(00:43):
the Buffalo Bills officially done? Has the window closed on
the Bills dynasty that never was?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Ooh, the never dynasty? Is the dynasty not the dynasty
that it never was? I don't think the windows closed.
They've still got Josh Allen. I think when you've got
Josh Allen and Jamie Cook, it's still there. It's just,
you know, it's like like creeping open a little bit,
you know. I mean, it's not locked, it's not completely done.
Speaker 1 (01:07):
I just don't.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
I don't look at that team and think that they're
completely devoid of being able to do anything. But boy,
their offensive line was horrific sure last time. I mean,
I mean, I don't know how they're gonna be able
to do anything with that offensive line right now. But
I don't know. I kind of think they're always in
it with Josh Allen, just like the Chiefs. Chiefs are
playing horrible. Patrick Mahomes has just been turning the ball
over at least turnover worthy throws and stuff, and it's
(01:30):
like they're still in it, you know, five and five,
they're still in it.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
I don't know, man, I got more faith in the
Chiefs this year, to be honest with you, than I
do the Buffalo Bills Ericson. I got much respect to
the Houston Texas defense. Those guys are dogs. They're fun
to watch, and if you like defense, I do. And
Obogman does. Also Texans are a fun watch, but yeah,
watch it hates hates defense, all offense all the time.
Everybody go deep. But Ericson, they takeaway from Thursday night
(01:53):
before we look ahead to the weekend.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
All is right in the AFC. They put up a
graphic of the AFC play off picture and at the
top Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Broncos. This is the AFC. I
remember before Patrick Mahomee showed up, like, these are the teams.
There was a Peyton Manning went in the division. Ben
Rothsburg went in the division Denver, winning a division that
nobody else wanted to win before Patrick mahomes showed up.
So yeah, all was right in the AFC once again,
(02:18):
with the Bills trailing the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
All right, Ericson, you were four and one last week
on the Best Bet Show. But the inverse on the
Prop show, Welsh didn't want you to be alone, so
he also nopes had one to five. So I want
you guys to stop being together so much.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Okay, I want to And you know what I decided
be great Instead, I decided I would love to get
this stat in. I was like, we're gonna go hair
again because I went hat last week and I was horrible.
So I'm like, ooh, we're done with Maybe that hat
I'm done with forever. But maybe it's an overall hat thing.
So we went full hair. I probably need to go
back and look and see what my record is hat
(02:54):
versus hair so far this season. But we got to
turn it around some way because Bully good.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Well, it's okay everyone. I still gave you a touchdown calls,
So I'm up to twelve right now. Ericson's got eleven.
Welsh is at ten, so still pretty good there on
the TDS, so we'll give you those at the end
of the show. All right, Welsh, Let's start with Seattle.
They've got a match up this week against the Tennessee Titans.
Heavily favored in this one. So how does that affect
some of the players there that you want to wager on. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
I one thing I did not do after this bad
week was be like, I'm not gonna go turn it
around and get a bunch of chalky players. Nope, I'm
just locked into where I want to go. I'm not
taking big, big name players. I'm trying to find the
best Edges and aj Barner feels like one of those.
I'm gonna take his receiving yards over at twenty five
point five over. Barner has gone over this in four
(03:40):
of his last seven games, specifically last week where he
saw ten eleven targets caught ten balls going up against
this Titans defense since Week two. They have given up
this receiving yard prop to opposing tight ends every single
week since Week two, so week one is the only
time they did not do that. Their defense ranks twenty
seventh in no sorry, they are also averaging that's the
(04:02):
next stat. They're averaging five catches forty seven yards to
opposing tight ends on the year, so those work well.
And this is a PFF stat that I like. AJ
Barner ranks fourth among tight ends and receiving yards from
the inline alignments. Titans defense ranks twenty seventh in receiving
yards allowed to inline tight ends this season, so he's
been getting his targets. The Titans are giving this up
(04:25):
on average a lot, and this works really well. I
love AJ Barner. I kind of wanted to get him
in the touchdown calls just because he also plays the
push push quarterback there. But we're gonna go receiving yards
over for aj Barner to kick it off.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Okay, Ericson, I know you and I all week have
talked about this game, the Detroit Lions and the New
York Giants. If things go south for us, I'm telling
you right now, Monday is going to be miserable for
me and Ericson. We are heavily invested, and I know
one player we both like is Jamison Williams, So let's
talk about how we want to approach him in Week twelve.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Well, I do like our Lions odds cause it is
going to be Jameis Winston starting, so like going to
a very turnover prone quarterback, but going to the Lions
offensive pieces. This was part of one of my parlays
for this week, Jameson Williams going over sixty three and
a half rushing and receiving yards. This might be on
my betting guard every single week from here on out
(05:18):
because all the lines have is a bunch of Dome
games coming up. Samuela Porta is out with a back injury.
He's not coming back this season, so that slots in
Jamis Williams and Alman ros Saint Brown as the top
two targets. And an offense is going to be playing
in dome games every single week until Week eighteen. So
Jamison Williams, he's had a bigger role since the team's
by week we've seen his target rate jump dramatically because
(05:39):
he's no longer just running clear out routes like he's
running more stuff underneath crossers and that's able to maximize
his elite speed. He's gone over sixty five or sixty
three and a half rushing and receiving yards four of
his last five games. He's facing the New York Giants
this week, who've allowed the fifth most receiving yards to
wide receivers. They're also twenty fifth worst in terms of
facing play action passes. James Williams is just going to
(06:01):
continue to cook. So every single week, I think the
jmail over needs to be on your card.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Okay, all right, I like it. Feel good about it.
Indoorcat Jared Goff is coming back. Everyone.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I would have put it on mine, but Erickson for
the second straight week got to the sheet before me
gets the worm bab and I showed him that all season.
It was ten weeks of me first, and then he's
gotten to it last two weeks but I would have
one hundred percent put this on. So well, I love that.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
I text you next week before I put the show out,
and then you can get ahead, you can get jump
on it. I'll give you an eta thirty seconds. I'll
let you boys fight it out. It'll be like running man.
It's gonna be a good time. Next up here, Jamar
Chase out for the week because of a suspension because
well you just don't spit on people in class. That'll
get you sent right home, right to the principal's office,
then home for the whole week, and that's where Jamar
(06:44):
Chase is going to stay. So actually on the FP
live stream, we're just talking about Yoshi vas and how
he might have to get a little bit more involved
in this game. So Welsh, what does that mean for
his prop market?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Yeah, we talked, We've talked about it all week long
on the Wide Receiver Rank show ericson Fitzie and I
and you know, getting him into the thirties. We have
to assume there's going to be an uptick in volume
due to Spitgate, and it'll be t Higgins and then
going to Andre Yoshivas is gonna be the number two
here I looked at both sides. We always do our
receptions versus receiving yards battle receiving yards. It's closing in
(07:15):
on forty. The receptions are giving you plus money at
three and a half, so that's where I went. I
went three point five over receptions at plus money, right
around close to one plus one point fifteen. Three times
this season when he has seen five, he has seen
five or more targets, and in two of those he
has got five balls each. He's caught five balls in
each one of those. Higgins is the number two wide
(07:37):
receiver to Chase, who, by the way, has been targeted
more than any wide receiver has. The eighth has seen
eight or more targets in four of his last five games,
so that didn't make sense. Chase number one targeted receiver,
Higgins has seen a boatload of targets as the number two.
If we get burrowback, that makes this even better. But
either quarterback is slinging the ball and Yoshi vas is
(07:58):
going to see an increase in his target It's most
projections specifically, and I look over at like PFF, they
have the lean to this around three point seven. So
I love the for marker here for him to catch
a bunch. I think they're going to be slinging the ball.
It can't just go to t Higgins. T Higgins is
still a pretty solid bet, obviously the Christian Gonzales effect.
But Yoshibas has done this when he has seen an
(08:19):
increase in targets during the year. He's going to see
it in this game. So give me four receptions at
plus money for Yoshibas.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
As of right now recording this, we're still waiting for
word on Joe Burrow right now. They need quote unquote
additional time to decide whether or not he's really ready
to go. But he did practice with the ones on Thursday,
so that's a good indication. So we'll see. Maybe we
do get Joe Burrow back. But either way, we're still
going to have Chase Brown working a lot in this
game potentially. Now here's the thing. When it comes to
(08:46):
the Patriots defense, they've been very good this year, very good,
specifically against the run. So Andrew Erickson, you are the undertaker.
Are we taking under numbers here on Chase Brown? Are
we going over?
Speaker 3 (08:56):
We are going over on Chase Brown. Ninety and a
half rushing and receiving yard Chase Brown has turned into
an absolute workhorse that we drafted him as in the
second round of Fantasy this year. The last couple of weeks,
last four games, four straight over one hundred yards from scrimmage.
I'm expecting him to see as much volume as he
can handle because Samaji Pieren is out yet again. And yes,
(09:16):
Patriots defense has been really tough on running backs as rushers,
not as good against receivers, and we know Chase Brown
has dual usage. He's been catching a ton of passes
out of the backfield from Joe Flacco and I would
expect that not to change. If it's Joe Burrow coming
off a foot injury, we'll see how mobile he is
behind the offensive line for the Bengals. So either way,
I think Chase bar is still going to get peppered
with a lot of targets out of the backfield. And
(09:37):
to the Patriots run defense, I don't think it's going
to be nearly as good because Milton Williams is not
going to be playing in this game. He was placed
on end reserve after he got hurt against the Jets,
So I think that's a huge loss to the interior
of the new England defense. So I think Chase Brown's
going to be a little bit more effective than most
people are giving him credit for as a rusher. And
we know he's explosive in the passing game as well.
So four straight's gonna be five straight after Sunday.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Okay, there you have it, everybody, next up here pick
number three for the boys. Before we get there, just
want to shout out our sponsor of the show, and
that's hard Rock Bet. Download the hard Rock Bet Sportsbook
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one hundred gambler and a Zona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Welsh.
(11:04):
What do you have up next for the people? For
your third pick of the week On the prop department.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
We're jumping into the quarterback space and in the fantasy
world he's actually a top ten quarterback this week. Just
came off of a record setting game of completions against
the forty nine ers. Jacoby Brissett, and we are going
to play passing touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brissett has
actually done this in five straight games, so every single
games a starter, he has thrown two or more touchdowns.
(11:30):
The Jags have allowed two passing touchdowns in four of
the last five games, and on average are giving up
a little over two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the
entire year. Trey McBride is going to eat in this obviously.
I love Michael Wilson. Brissette's kind of a wildcarp The
running game is also a wild card here, So I
really like this setup defensive matchup to Brissette. He's been
(11:53):
throwing him, they've been giving him up. Give me two
touchdowns for Jacoby Brissett, and I really should have put
Trey McBride on here. Locke Tray McBride down for a
touchdown as well.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Okay. Also making the first start of the NFL this
week is Shador Sanders. So Andrew Erickson. What does that
mean for the Cleveland Browns. I know we talked about
them potentially winning this game against the Las Vegas Raiders,
So what does that mean for sure?
Speaker 2 (12:16):
This has to be an undert right.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Nope, no, no, because I'm a slave to the numbers.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Here.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
This is a five star bet coming in the prop
bet cheap cheap because fifteen and a half completions for
an NFL quarterback, this is too low of a number
the Jets. The Jets offense this season has been averaging
seventeen completions per game, So you're telling me that Shudur
can't even be better than justin fields Tyro Taylor combined
in one game against the Las Vegas Raiders in a dome. Look,
(12:42):
I think that this number is being way too heavily
weighed on based on a half of Shadar Sanders when
he didn't prepare to start that game at all. He's
working with the ones all week to play the Las
Vegas Raiders. He's going to get over fifteen and a
half completions. Dylan Gabriel was over this number four of
his five games as a starter this year. The Raiders
are allowing over twenty two completions per game. Only one
(13:03):
quarterback all year has failed to hit sixteen completions against
the Raiders. So yeah, last week he had four completions.
It was terrible, It was awful. But I think that
you're getting value on this number because of how bad
that that second half was for Suter Sanders, and you know,
if he completes that touchdown pass, I'm sure that the
narrative around Shotter is way different.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
I agree with it. I said that same thing if
that gets completed.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
So I just think we're getting insane value here at
fifteen and a half completions. Again, like I said, five
star bet per the prop bet cheat sheet slave to
the numbers. So I'm taking the over.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
And if you want to see the prop bet cheat
sheet again, it's available for free betting pros dot com
slash props, or you can just download the Betting pros app.
There you'll see all the projections against all of the
prop set numbers there and then the best odds you're
going to find. So sink your sports books for free
on the Betting pros app that wea. You can utilize
the prop bet cheat sheet there. And this is one
of the Again I'm with Andrew here, I think it
(13:54):
is a little bit of a different narrative. A couple
drops down there, Like I'm not stating Shore look good,
but there are a couple of moments where the team
didn't help them out in a full week of practice
with the ones I think could go a long way.
He's better than Dylan Gabriel.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
By the way, I stared at the Browns just all
their receiving AIRD props as well. If you believe this,
if you want to have positive correlation, Fannin's number is low.
He had that twenty five yard or two Fan and
Jerry Judy's reception prop I think it's plus money at
four reception. So if you believe Shador is going to
have a solid game with completions, both Fannin and Judy
(14:27):
are actually really good positive correlations that you could tie in.
And I almost put Fan. I really wanted to put
Fan in on this list. I'm just terrified of Shador.
But I do like both of those and I stared
at them for a long time.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
All Right, let's see what else Welsh is staring at here.
Let's take a look at AJ Brown. Because Welsh, I
think we're in the minority here. I think both of
us think that this is a good situation for AJ Brown,
and we haven't said that a lot now this year,
and a lot has worked out for AJ Brown. But
the numbers all the way down to fifty seven and
a half. I'm in on this one. So are you
you tell the people?
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Yeah, this was one that like the week started now
is just like AJ Brown, Dallas Cowboys, Like we're gonna
find a way. We're gonna find a way to justify this.
There's a couple things that really don't In his first meeting,
he absolutely got shut out, which I think is going
to bounce back. He has hit this in two of
his last four games. This receiving yard prop which isn't
like the most resounding cell, but last week he did
(15:21):
have eleven targets seven catches. Was not able to get
the ball deep. But that's where things start to change
here because Cowboys defense have been pretty straightforward. It's a turnstile.
They're averaging the third most receiving yards given up in
the NFL. An interesting stat from PFF, Jalen Hurtz is
ranking third in completions of twenty yards or more downfield.
(15:42):
Dallas Cowboys defense ranks thirty first in deep completions allowed
in the NFL. So those are big chunk plays. That's
what I'm looking for out of AJ Brown. Fantasy pros
projections absolutely love this has him at sixty nine yards nice.
Other projections like PFF are in the ballpark. On the positive,
like you know, three or four yard cushion, I think
(16:02):
this is a fantastic defensive matchup for it. I'm going
to talk about him in the touchdown range. I know
Deante Smith kind of got you know, shut out and
then obviously because I bet on him, Maybe I shouldn't
bet on Eagles wide receivers now that I think about it,
that this will be like it could be the DeVante
Smith game. But I think this is the potential for
the Eagles to really get the ball in the air
because of how the Cowboys are in their secondary, some
(16:25):
play action, some big plays and just those big chunk plays.
I could get this out of two catches from aj Brown.
So I really like this receiving yard number fifty seven
point five over now.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Staying in this game as I was researching from stuff
this week, Look, philadelph Eagles have been terrific. They've given
out the second few his yards to tight ends this
year and just one touchdown. So what does that mean
that Jake Ferguson has in store for him this week?
Erickson not a lot.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Of production, Jack Ferguson, I'm not expecting a big game
from him in any capacity. Now his number is not
that high thirty and a half receiving yards, but he's
been under and four of seven games at this number
with CD Lamb back in the lineup, including three of
his last four games. The passing game for Dallas has
really focused on the top two wideouts, which I don't
blame Dak, Like these are the guys who want to
throw the football to. They're dynamic after the catch. And
(17:11):
the way that the matchup against the Eagles, Quenyang Mitchell
can only cover one guy at a time, so I
think Dak is okay, who's Queenya Mitchell not covering? I'm
gonna throw it to that guy. So expecting Pickens and
the Lamb to eat here like they have the last
couple of weeks and Ferguson kind of phase out, especially
against the Eagles. He's zeroing three his last three matchups
at thirty and a half receiving yards versut the Eagles,
so they've been able to get him out of the
(17:32):
offensive game plan. And like you said at the top, Joe,
Eagles allowing thirty under three yards per game to tight end,
So Jake Ferguson yat it. Get its a low number
but I don't think he's hitting it this week.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
I don't know either, my friend, he's a fade for
me this week in a big way. Okay, well, one
more pick for everybody to make and then onto the touchdown.
So Welsh, let's talk about Breese Hall. This game for
the Jets, the receiving yards is fifteen and a half.
Are we going over or under that number?
Speaker 2 (17:57):
We are going over? This used to be like a
lock that where Brese Hall was getting the ball out
of the backfield receiving all year long, and then you know,
justin fields continues to happen. So now we get tyron
ed at quarterback Tyrod opportunity for the ball to start
moving down the field a bit more, which is a positive.
I was looking at his checkdown percentage around eight and
a half percent, which definitely not at the top of
(18:17):
the league, but it's like it's like at median or
a little bit above average, which I really like. In
the receiving game for Briess though, the Ravens present a
really good receiving matchup grade according to PFF, and they
seem kind of like what I talked about in that
Cowboys game is this defense seems to give up big
chunk plays to running backs catching out of the backfield.
(18:39):
They're on average giving up around four catches per game
to running backs, but this is for over thirty three
yards seven and a half yards per reception given up
to running backs. So I think this line's in really
really well for Breess Hall to get involved in the game. Obviously,
if they're going to be playing from behind in spots
and not running the ball, you want to get the
ball in Breese's hands. I think Tyrod will do that.
(19:00):
We're gonna go old school with Breefe Hall getting back
into the receiving yard games. And I might even pop
this up a little bit into like the twenty five's
or something like that. But I love this at fifteen
point five over for Briefe Hall receiving yards.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Now, look, we've seen, or I guess we'll see what
Tyrod Taylor will do, but we have seen a lot
of what Brian Thomas hasn't done this year. It's been
kind of disappointing.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
Andrew.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
It's you were the Brian Thomas wisper last year. Okay,
it's been being polite man. Well, it's interesting because you
have been here. Look last year you were the guy
leading the charge of Brian Thomas when I didn't hear
anybody else really leading that at all. And you are
one hundred percent right. And this year, Brian Thomas, just
in this Liam Cohen offense, for whatever reason, things have
not worked out. Health has been an issue too. So
(19:41):
is there a way for us to profit off all
the bad news surrounding him this year?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
In Week twelve, take beyonder under four and a half
receptions for Brian Thomas Junior. He could get ten targets
and we're not even sure if he's going to catch
more than half of them because he's had problems holding
on to the football, like you said, dealing with a
shoulder injury. He's come off an ankle sprain injury. If
he comes back and plays this week, So look we
saw last week Ricky Piersoll missed a bunch of time,
comes back, not involved in the offense whatsoever. So there
(20:08):
are so many outs with this. With Brian Thomas Junior
taking the under, He's only gone over this number in
two of his eight games played this season. And when
you go back to why he was so good his
rookie year, I mean it's because Mac Jones like that
was the connection that was like dialed in because his
last ten games with Trevor Lawrence, he's gone over the
number twice, so he's hitting me under an eighty percent
(20:29):
hit rate, going for five catches in this offense. So
this is another five star bet and I absolutely love it.
Almost fell out of a chair when I saw this
number and it was a plus money when I was
able to get it, So I still think you're getting
great value on it. Look, I hate to label anything's
about my lock of the week because that's a guaranteed
play it's going to buy.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
But this is my lock of the week. Brian okay R.
Don't say it too loud. It's a lowercase L for
the lock of the week. Let's get onto the touchdown calls.
And remember if you want help with the touchdown calls
in your week twelve and hit up the Touchdown score Report.
It is at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown, and I'll
give you the latest and eight time touchdown stats to
(21:08):
prop bet odds and projections to he'll identify the very
best in any time touchdown bets. I'm gonna go with
a guy who's been red hot who's trying to get
the bag, and that's George Pickens. I think the Dallas
Cowboys are gonna beat the Eagles. That's my hot take
of the week. It's my upset special. We'll see if
I'm right or wrong. Plus one sixty for George Pickens
to get in the end zone, and I think he's
going to yet again this week. And then surprise, surprise,
(21:30):
I'm where Ericson is on, Jamison Williams and Welsh too.
I mean, let's be honest, we're all in on this
one plus one fifty five. That's where I'm going for
my two touchdown calls. Two receivers. A little risky. You
think I'd go with one of the running backs, but
I like the value on Williams and Pickens there over
plus one fifty for both of those guys. Wells, where
are you going for your touchdown calls for Week twelve?
Speaker 2 (21:50):
I am also weighted in the wide receivers. I usually
love to sit in the tight end world, but my
two wide receivers first up, I mentioned aj Brown. Cowboys
have given up five touchdowns to wide receivers over the
last three weeks, and seventeen touchdowns to wide receivers on
the year so far. So I love AJ Brown in
a touchdown spot here and this is a higher plus
(22:11):
money and that was plus one thirty five. By the way,
this play is over four to one and I love it.
I think I might like it more than the AJ
Brown one. I'm going with Xavier Legett, ninth most in
zone targets in the NFL. I think you saw two
last week. They are trying to get him the ball.
The forty nine ers secondary is trash. They're going to
(22:33):
have a hyper focus in the red zone if they're there.
Of course on Tetoroa McMillan and Bryce Shump loves to
throw to Xavier Ligette and the forty arews can't stop anyone.
So at over four to one on a guy that
is top ten in the NFL and end zone targets, yep,
Xavier Ligett. That's one of my favorite touchdown calls this week.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
All right, Andrew Erickson, give me two more guys. They're
gonna find paydirt hit the goal line.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
In Week twelve, Hunter Henry anytime touchdown plus one forty.
He's facing the Cincinnati Bengals, who we all know are
the worst defense in the NFL against guarding tight ends,
and Henter Henry was so close to scoring a touchdown
last week against the New York Jets. Drake May was
dropping back to throw it to him and it got
tipped and Hunter Henny was not able to secure the touchdown.
But he will write the wrong from Thursday Night Football
(23:17):
and score against the Cincinnati Bengals here from Drake May.
So I like him plus one forty t Higgins plus
twenty plus one to twenty five in the same game.
To Higgins has scored nine straight home games, five of
his last six games played. There is no Jamar Chase
t Higgins, even if it's getting even if it's chrischickgan
Zales on him in shadow coverage. Well, Ti Higgins can
win fifty to fifty balls even in the red zone.
(23:37):
So whether it's Burrow, whether it's Flacco, I think they're
going to go to him in the red zone. So
I like his odds to score here. And then my
bonus one Taysom Hill plus three twenty the Saints our
favorites at home last time. Tasom Hill faced the Falcons
last season two rushing touchdowns, so they've been talking up
Taysom Hill a lot this week. The offensive coordinator is
talking about Taysom Hill. The head coach is talking about
(23:59):
Taysom Hill. He's back from his injury, full go. He's
so versatile. We love using this guy in the red zone.
So although everyone wants Alvin Kamara to bounce back in
a big way, don't be surprised if it's Taysom Hill
with the vulture touchdowns this week.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Here you go, Taysom Hill action. I'm sure that I'll
throw things way out of whack there, but a good
number on that one as well. All right, everybody, So
make sure if you haven't already, download the Betting Pros
app and the hard Rock bet Sportsbook app to tie
those two things together. Sing all your sportsbooks for free
and let the tools help you get the most out
of Week twelve, and subscribe to the YouTube channel. That'll
do it for us. But the story of the game
(24:32):
goes on for the well should Andrew ericson. I'm Joey p.
We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
Speaker 2 (25:00):
St
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