College Football Playoffs & Bowl Games | Early Picks & Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 901) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.
The ties have turned to the postseason. Coaches are arriving
in their new host playoff teams are preparing for their
upcoming matchups, while others are getting ready to go bowling.
Baby Wolf, of course, take an early look at those
CFP Round one games and make our official picks and

(00:21):
predictions for the first wave of bowl games. I'm your host,
Seth Wilcock, coming off with rather disappointing two and three
championship weekend, and I'm joined by a man who is
ready to put his best foot forward after once calling
two G five teams in the playoff quote fan of fiction,
he's got big time Boggin Boggs. How are you as
mid December and the postseason are upon us.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
I mean, I was surprised that it happened, but I mean, look,
it's just the way that it goes, right, So you're
absolutely correct. I was mistaken, and in my mind I
had just put the ACC champion in there, and I
also thought it was fan fiction because I thought, oh, well,
no way, Duke's gonna win this game. Virginia is gonna win,
and they choked. I had a bad conference championship week

(01:05):
after like a good you know, two to three weeks
leading up to it. But we're gonna get better in
bowlseason here, and I like these balls now. And by
the way, some of these massive mismatches make for easy
picks here, So yeah, I agree.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
And I think it was a big missed opportunity for
me because I've been spewing on this how jam you
could get to the playoffs. They were sitting out there
ten to one for a few weeks now and I
didn't get on them.

Speaker 3 (01:28):
So shame on me. I gotta keep my head on swivel.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Don't let me bully you next time. Yeah, go with you, guy,
don't let me bully you.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
So well, we'll see today if you can bully me
in or away from any lines. Today's program does look
like this, bogs. We're gonna recap all the conference championship
risers and followers, plus we'll give you an early handicap
for the first round college football playoff matchups. Will then
take you to our official picks and predictions for the
Army Navy game and that first set of bowl games

(01:58):
happening over the next week or so.

Speaker 3 (01:59):
As all we shout to everyone who's coming up.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
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(02:25):
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(02:46):
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Speaker 3 (02:53):
If you are that lucky winner.

Speaker 1 (02:55):
Now let's go ahead and go talk about what went
down with the conference titles on the line over the weekend. First,
we saw Kennisas State survive Jacksonville State nineteen fifteen in
the CUSA Championship game Number twenty five James Madison. They
beat Troy thirty one to fourteen for the Sun Belt
Championship title. However, they did not cover in that one.

(03:16):
Number twenty two Lane. They beat number twenty four North
Texas thirty four to twenty one for the American Boise
State gets the best of un LV again thirty eight
twenty one for the Mountain West Championship. And then Western
Michigan they mowed down Miami, Ohio twenty three to thirteen
at Ford Field in the MAC Championship game. Number four

(03:37):
Texas Tech. They complete the season sweep of number eleven
BYU thirty four to seven for the Big twelve title.
Number three Georgia they absolutely whacked number nine Alabama twenty
eight to seven in the SEC Championship. And then Duke
cosim Kaos winning twenty seven to twenty over number seventeen
Virginia and the ACC Championship.

Speaker 3 (03:57):
That game got really tight and fun at the end.

Speaker 1 (03:59):
And then number two Indiana they have remained perfect, had
an injury scare on the first drive, first play for
Nando Mendoza. He comes back in leads them thirteen to
ten over number one Ohio State in the Big Ten
championship game. Bogs betting risers and followers from the action
and he surprises.

Speaker 2 (04:16):
Yeah, there were a lot of surprises. I was surprised
Ohio State didn't beat Indiana. That was pretty shocking, I felt,
you know. And it was a great game and the
yardage was close. Ohio States offenses couldn't move the ball
against Indiana. Really, it was three hundred and twenty two yards,
four of twelve on third downs, only seventeen first downs

(04:37):
saying through a pick. It was just it was a
low scoring gross It felt like an outdoor game that
was indoors, right. That's kind of how I felt about
that one. Not surprised at Georgia beat Bam. I just
think the level of football that those two squads have
been playing, that was the way that was going to go.
I was shocked Duke beat Virginia. Now you have all
the incentive to go and ruin someone else's season. I

(05:00):
could not believe Virginia choked that game. That was a
tough one. We got exactly what we thought out of
Texas Tech and BYU. I don't think either one of
us really had a thought that BYU was going to
be in that game. And Texas Tech is clearly a
top four team. So can their offense hold up in
the tournament? That's going to be the question. I was
surprised that I got some of these G five games correct.

(05:21):
I was surprised that I got Kennessaw State because you
were on Jacksonville State, and as soon as you said
Jacksonville State, I went, ugh, maybe I should have gone
with Jacksonville State because you know these schools a little
bit better. But I whipped on North Texas. We both did,
like Jake rets laugh, was just awesome.

Speaker 1 (05:35):
They had one foot out the door. I think hen
is still water. Honestly, North Texas, you're right to show up.

Speaker 2 (05:40):
You're right. And then I was shocked at UNLV again.
This un l V versus Boise State feels like Texas
against Georgia to me right now, like they just have
their number. They can't get past that.

Speaker 3 (05:51):
The Mountain West Championship game, man.

Speaker 2 (05:53):
Yeah, I know, and that is uh again, they do
it again. And then to see Jmu beat down Troy
and not cover was upsetting but not surprising, right, Like
Troy showed up a little bit, but it's still four
hundred and eleven yards to one hundred and seventy seven.

Speaker 3 (06:08):
It was got there at the end, they were on
the twelve yard line.

Speaker 1 (06:11):
We also had Troy have all their timeouts, and I
was thinking they were going to try to use them,
so jam you would have to try to get in
the end zone more time. And then they just you know,
they called mercy role pretty much, stop calling the timeouts. Jami,
you just kneeled it away. But we're about ten yards
away from covering, So I was excited to at least
be you know, within play that last tackle.

Speaker 2 (06:29):
You text me actually after that last tackle on the
sideline because if he wiggles out of that tackle, he's
in yep. So we were of course watching that with
baited breath for us. But it's a game of inches,
even embedding. So good weekend, not for the result, but
I also kind of think they got this playoff somewhat correct, right,

(06:51):
So it's it's not the twelve best teams, but it
never was going to be the twelve best teams, right,
you were going to have that automatic bid anyway. And
since the ACC kicked each other around this entire season
and no one really rose to the cream of the crop, right,
it wasn't surprising to see Duke win this game in
a conference it's so close, So.

Speaker 1 (07:10):
Play stupid games with your tie breakers, win stupid prizes.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
That's how I They gotta fix that one hundred percent,
and they'll fix that in this offseason for sure. I also,
you know, I don't understand this bowing out of bowl game,
cry baby nonsense conference.

Speaker 3 (07:27):
If you want to start, quit crying.

Speaker 2 (07:30):
And also, you know, I saw and I know a
lot of people don't like Emmanuelacho. I understand that Texas
guy I like, but him and Sam both played at Texas,
loved theos. But he was right in what he said recently.
He said, Look, it's not just the football team, it's cheer,
it's color guard, it's banned, it's all the parents for

(07:52):
the seniors didn't know that that was the last game
that their kids were gonna play. So I just think
this is a really bad move by Notre Dame. I
think it's a cry baby move and I really don't
like it, Like with Chris Climb and retiring with Matt
Campbell leaving in the process. I don't like those either,
I'll say that, but they're more understandable. And those teams

(08:14):
are still getting fined a hefty amount. I have no
idea if Notre Dame.

Speaker 3 (08:18):
Is, I don't think there's anything to find them.

Speaker 1 (08:20):
I don't.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
Yeah, they have no conference, right, so they got you know,
because those schools got fined by the Big Twelve. So
and I also I tell you what else happened this
week is the Big Twelve is going to adopt the
ACC replay review, which I love. I think every single
place should do that. Yeah, the NFL should do it,
every single conference should do it. It's just more transparency, specifically

(08:41):
in this land of cambling. I think is very smart.

Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, a ton of head coaching movement over the past
couple of weeks as well.

Speaker 2 (08:46):
We just gott Moore right before we started.

Speaker 3 (08:49):
It is a lot of things going down.

Speaker 1 (08:52):
And before we get out of the conference championship game recap,
I just want to say, like shout to our friends
over at Western Michigan man Maction for life.

Speaker 3 (09:01):
That was.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
That was like the least sweaty game of the week
for US, so I really appreciate them coming through for US.
So maction Man had a really good season betting on
the MAC, probably better than any other conference, so I
can appreciate that, especially after getting to off to kind
of a bad start there, laying a ton of points
with Buffalo against I think it was Kent State in
like week two and that backside, So yeah, really really

(09:23):
fun week. You and I should have probably also bet
that under that we are leaning towards in the IU
Ohio State game. I know we talked about that and
neither one of us went to that, so I think
just something to look back on those defenses. I think
do outweigh the offense is just a little bit but
love this time in the sport.

Speaker 3 (09:38):
Man so fun.

Speaker 2 (09:39):
Who's gonna win the Heisman?

Speaker 3 (09:40):
Oh it's Mendoz after that Hunt, I think so too.

Speaker 1 (09:43):
Yeah. I mean I have a Jeremiah Love eighty to
one ticket from preseason.

Speaker 3 (09:47):
I would love for.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
Him to cash, but it's not happening. So uh, let's
go Fernando.

Speaker 3 (09:51):
I like that kid's moxy. I like to cut of
his jim and.

Speaker 2 (09:54):
I saw a scattering report for him, and it was pros,
it was everything, and then CON's he's a dork. I
was like, that was a I mean, it's pretty accurate.
So good kid, good quarterback.

Speaker 1 (10:05):
So now with the bracket set, though, Bucks, let's go
ahead and get into the early picks and line movement
predictions for the CFP first round matchups. We're gonna start
in Norman, where the books are scattered all around on
this one for a Friday, December nineteenth matchup, listing the
number nine Alabama Crimson Tide anywhere from one and a
half point favorites to one and a half point underdogs

(10:27):
against the eighth ranked Oklahoma Sooners.

Speaker 3 (10:29):
Bama, they come off an.

Speaker 1 (10:30):
SEC championship game against Uga where they were really never
in it, losing twenty eight to seven. That drops them
to ten and three ats and straight up. One of
those losses did come to the Sooners on November fifteenth,
losing twenty three to twenty one. Ty Simpson, he has
fallen off quite a lot inefficiency as of late man
and the running back room. They continue to struggle a

(10:51):
little bit. Jam Miller. He has banged up Ryan Williams.
I talked about it last week. This guy's kind of
a ghost right now. And we also have them rolling
in with a top twenty three passing offense and a
top twelve scoring and total defense. Oh you Meanwhile, they
were off this past weekend, but in rivalry week they
barely got by LSU. I know you were probably hoping

(11:12):
that they would lose that one. Maybe put Texas into
the dance? Did that drop them to seven to five
ats ten to three? Straight up and getting after the
quarterback at a nation high clip converting one hundred percent
of their red zone possessions into scores has carried this
team really throughout the season, especially as John Mattier continues
to turn the ball over at three interceptions against the
Tigers a few weeks ago.

Speaker 3 (11:32):
So bogs. Both these teams are obviously pretty flawed right
coming into the postseason.

Speaker 1 (11:37):
But regardless, one of them will have a date with
Number one Indiana in the quarterfinals.

Speaker 3 (11:42):
Any early lead on who that may be.

Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, I'm gonna go with Alabama in this game. And
I know this is a tough road game in Norman.
That place is going to be rocking. It's going to
be a lot of fun to see football there in December.
Going to be a blast but you know, I know
they lost the last match up to Oklahoma, and you know,
but they did put a four hundred and six yards

(12:04):
in that game. They held Oklahoma at two hundred and twelve.
They possessed the ball for thirty four to twenty eight
to twenty five thirty two. OHU had six punts five penalties.
That was four punts and two penalties for Bama in
this game. Oh you was three for thirteen on third downs.
They only had twelve first downs the entire game. Bama
had the three turnovers. That is what changed the fates

(12:26):
of that game because the box score, you look at
a team that dominated yardage and time of possession. That
was Bama by a lot, Right, So I feel like
Bama is going to play a much more efficient game
this second time around. It's what we see. A lot
of mistakes are made. Obviously, it's hard to beat the
same team twice. Ask Virginia. They'll tell you sure. But

(12:47):
you know this happens all the time in college sports
when a team has to meet in the conference championship.
We just saw with Alabama and Georgia, right, Bama won
that first matchup. Georgia adjusted and won, So I don't
think that Bama is playing their best foot ball. I
understand that, which makes this game a little bit closer
than I like. Yeah, Oklahoma is a very scary defense.
They can get those turnovers as well, but I think

(13:09):
you have extra time to prep here, you have time
to cut down on those mistakes. I feel like Bama
is the better team, and I do think they'll advance.
So I'm gonna take Bama just on the money line
right now. If I can get them plus points, then okay,
but I don't think it matters, So give me Bama
in the money line.

Speaker 1 (13:24):
Do you think if you want Bama you should be
taking now though, because they are out there as underdogs
or favorites really anyway you want to go with this one?
Obviously you would take the underdog at a point and
a half if you want them. So do you think
we no longer see Bama underdog tickets at some point
next week?

Speaker 2 (13:40):
Uh? Yeah, I think the betting is going to go
towards Alabama, But right now I don't know that we
have Yeah, we don't have enough ticket info yet to
tell us which way this is going, but the fact
that it's you know, now, the Sooners are plus one
and a half when they start out is one and
a half point favorites in most books. I think that
is the way it's going. So I do think if

(14:01):
you want Bama plus points, take it where you ever
you can get it now, because a week from now
it's not gonna be available.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
Yeah, this might be a game I have to like
tease the under or something and boost that up and
put it with something else because we are gonna have
an end game live first half betting coverage show here
on the ben pros YouTube channel and on the Fantasy
Pro Twitch channel, So I'm gonna have to have a
play in this game going into it, Bogs, I'm just
not sure exactly what way I want to go. I'm

(14:27):
actually like a little scared. I definitely don't think I
can be on the Bama side, just with what I've
seen from them over the past several weeks. I mean,
Oklahoma hasn't necessarily inspired me either, but their defense is
certainly still there, and I feel like Bama's offense kind
of starting to leak a little bit of oil. So
I think I might try to tease this up as
much as I can see if this total continues to
go up, which I think it could be if people

(14:48):
are gonna continue to bet it, So that's kind of
probably be the way I'm gonna approach this one. But
you know, we'll have another show next week with our
official picks and predictions, and then again BOXX really looking
forward to that live stream on Friday night for this one.

Speaker 2 (15:00):
It's gonna be fun.

Speaker 3 (15:00):
Man.

Speaker 2 (15:01):
Those live streams are always fun. I did one with
Joe last year. I do one every Thursday on ITL,
so it's streaming and talking football during the game is
a lot of fun.

Speaker 3 (15:10):
Man, can't beat a baby.

Speaker 1 (15:11):
Only thing that will make that a little bit better
is beer, right, talking with.

Speaker 3 (15:15):
Your friends and beer.

Speaker 1 (15:16):
Those are the three things that I look forward to
just about every single weekend. Let's go ahead, though, Let's
move to Saturday at noon where the tenth ranked Miami
Hurricanes they roll into College Station to face off with
the seventh rank Texas A and at Maggie's as three
and a half point underdogs. Miami they can think BYU
for getting blown out in the Big twelve championship game
that moved them next to Notre Dame, where the head

(15:37):
to head came into play. They then jumped over the
Irish to get into the dance. They're ten and two
straight up and ATS. Their outright losses came to Louisville
and at SMU earlier in the season.

Speaker 3 (15:48):
Their quarterback Carson Back. This guy's been super hit or
miss really his whole career that continued for the U.

Speaker 1 (15:53):
He leads the acc and completion percentage, but also in
interceptions as well. He does, however, have acc Rookie of
the Year Malachai Tony as disposal and this kid has
been a superstar.

Speaker 3 (16:06):
Man Ruben Bain and also Key Mesador.

Speaker 1 (16:09):
These guys have become one of the best fronts in
the country, putting the U seventh in rushing defense sixteenth
in total defense as well A and M. They took
their only outright loss of the season last time out
against Texas, falling to eleven and one straight up five
and seven ATS. Their quarterback Marcel Reid, who he was
on a podcast this week saying, hey, if someone throws

(16:31):
more money at me, and I have talked to my
parents about what I want to do. But anyway, he
leads the sec in yards per completion and that's thanks
in part due to the stud wide receivers. Casey concepts
Giano transferred in and Mario Craver as well. Their twentieth
in total offense, nineteenth in total defense, but they can't
struggle with being undisciplined in the penalties and turnover department.

Speaker 3 (16:52):
So Boggs, this is another spot where neither team is perfect.

Speaker 1 (16:56):
But I think they have a ton of playmakers on
both sides of the ball. So what's your early read
and what's your thought on the potential line movement we
might see.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yeah, this one is It's the It's the only other
first round game that has a tough pick, right. I
think the other two are extremely easy. We won't have
to go super deep into those games, but in this game,
this one is tough. Miami is six in scoring defense.
We saw Marcel Reid look a little rough in his
last game against Texas with happy feed he's sailing a

(17:25):
little bit of throws. So I think I'm gonna be
on the Miami side here. Bain and Mesdor are going
to challenge the Aggie's offensive line. But left tackle Trey
Zoon he's been the best blocking offensive tackle in the
nation according to PFF grades, and he's only allowed one
sack all year and has had zero penalties, so he's
gonna be tough to get around no matter who is

(17:46):
over there. But however, the rest of the old line
has only allowed two sacks, but they've been penalized a
ton and they've allowed a lot of pressure. Right, So
the rest of the line is not as good as Zoom,
but the line is pretty strong. I think this should
be a tight one. I feel like Miami is a
better team in as long as I'm going to get
the hook on the three and a half, I'm going
to take Miami here. I'm going to be on the canes.

(18:08):
Beck can lose this game. As you mentioned, he's been very,
very hit or miss in his career, and he definitely
can lose this game. But he's been in big time
spots before they've come through. They've had extra time to
prepare for this game. Maybe it's just wishful thinking because
of course I picked against Oklahoma and I'm picking against
ANM here. I understand that everyone needs to take that

(18:28):
with a grain of shirt when it's the Texas fan
picking against A and M and Oklahoma here. But I
just I feel like A and M was exposed against
Texas and Miami should have never been a question to
get in. But again, like I said last week, don't
lose SMU, then you don't want to be a question
and don't lose SMU and fix the weird tiebreaker stuff

(18:50):
in your conference right. So I wouldn't have minded if
Miami did not make it right and they have put
Notre Dame and would have made any difference to me.
I bet Miami would have showed up for their game,
by the way, But the fact that the games have
been in playoff mode probably since that SMU game, and
I heard Jdpickl talk about that. I think that was
a great point that the playoff mindset that they've had

(19:11):
since that SMU game, I think just helps them on
get stepping into the playoffs here. They've had that mindset
for a while. Now AM hasn't had that right. They
had the hey, look we're cruising, we're undefeated. All we
got to do is beat Texas to get the SEC
title game, and that blew up in their face. So
I think this one might two and m is favorite
because they're at home, which gives us the points. I'm

(19:33):
taking those points at three and a half.

Speaker 1 (19:35):
Yeah, I think I will probably end up being on
Miami in this one because like initial first look when
the lines were dropped Bogs, I was like, all right,
like I trust the SEC over the ACC. But then
you think, like, mine doesn't really play like an ACC
team this year, right, They're kind of like an SEC
like team with that defensive front. Their offensive line isn't
half bad either, And like if I could bet player

(19:56):
props Malachai.

Speaker 3 (19:57):
TONI, I think it's gonna have a huge game because
I don't think A and.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
M zero drops this here. Yeah, I not one.

Speaker 1 (20:01):
I just don't think that A and M secondary can
keep up with him, right, He is explosive and like
at the same time too, Like you kind of pointed
it out, like Miami they have a guy in Carson Beck.
While he's not the best in big spots, he's at
least been in big spots before. And how many times
have we seen a team take a late season loss
heading into a conference championship game or into a playoff

(20:24):
like this and then they just drop a second one
in their seasons done? Right?

Speaker 3 (20:27):
So I think I think Miami's playing with house money, right.
They're not even supposed to be here.

Speaker 2 (20:31):
Right, right, They're not supposed to be here today, and
by the way, that line for Miami against Cashus Howell
and you know, we've talked talked about this A and M.
Number one team in the country in sacks per game,
you know, or I don't know if they finished there. Yes,
they did three point four two so per game, so
number one. But this is the second highest graded blocking

(20:52):
offensive line in the country for Miami. So I think
they have issues putting pressure on Beck. I think the
right side of the line is the problem for A
and M. We saw that against Texas. I think those
are the those are the weak points that I find
for A and M. To knock them. They're a very
good team, they're at home. They could easily win this game.

(21:13):
If Carson Beck makes those massive mistakes that we've seen
him make, then they will lose this game. But he
is a veteran, he's been in the spot before, he's
gone through it, He's had a million starts. I expect
him to have a good game.

Speaker 3 (21:25):
Here is three and a half the best number we're
going to get. You think on Miami.

Speaker 2 (21:28):
Absolutely, I think if you want to get that, you
need to get it pretty soon. I think it's going
to go the way of Miami because I don't. I
gotta be honest, I don't think I've heard many people
picking A and M in the public.

Speaker 3 (21:39):
Yeah, so good point.

Speaker 2 (21:40):
I think this line is going to flip towards the
Canes and you're gonna lose that hook pretty quick. Here.

Speaker 1 (21:45):
I saw one young lad on YouTube this past week.
He actually simmed the college football playoff and Miami was
the winner.

Speaker 3 (21:52):
So hey, wow, yeah the whole yet the whole winner, So.

Speaker 2 (21:56):
I think they get drummed down in the next round.

Speaker 1 (22:00):
Folks, make sure you're downloading the free Betting Pros app
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(22:22):
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(22:42):
In Oxford. As the number six Ole Miss Rebels, they
host their first college Football Playoff game as seventeen to
seventeen and a half point favorites over the eleventh seed
two lane Green Wave Lane Kiffen. He has allowed four
assistant coaches to return to Oxford to join new coach
Pete god Holding in preparation for this game. This comes

(23:03):
after a very dominating egg Bull performance to get them
to eleven and one straight up seven.

Speaker 3 (23:07):
To five ats the ReBs.

Speaker 1 (23:08):
They roll out a top three passing offense, led of
course by Tran Dad cham Bliss.

Speaker 3 (23:13):
Their backfield, they got Kawan.

Speaker 1 (23:15):
Lacyne, who leads the SEC in touchdowns, rush attempts, and
plays from scrimmage.

Speaker 3 (23:20):
The Green Wave.

Speaker 1 (23:21):
They come into the CFB with the news that they'll
promote oc Will Hall two head coach, following John Sumral's
departure to Florida. The transition has not phased them, of course,
some are still going to be with them for this
game as well. As They shut down North Texas's top
ranked offense last week, holding them to just twenty one points,
winning the American American Conference Championship by thirteen two lane.

(23:42):
They are now eleven and two straight up six six
and one ats. And their quarterback, Jake Retzlov he is
their dude all man. He's leading the team in rushing,
also has thrown for over twenty eight hundred yards this season. Boggs,
I thought the difference in the AAC Championship for North
Texas would be two lanes, one hundred and twenty third
passing defense, and they've also allowed one hundred and twenty
first a most ten yard plus plays. It wasn't I

(24:06):
think it might work here though.

Speaker 3 (24:08):
Do you think it does?

Speaker 2 (24:10):
I think ole Miss rolls right over to lane. We've
already seen this matchup this year, right, this was forty
five to ten before. So the yardage in this game
five hundred and forty eight yards for ole Miss. They
had two hundred and forty one on the ground, three
hundred and seven through the air. They held to lane
to two hundred and eighty two yards, and they punted

(24:30):
once the entire game. They had twenty three first downs,
seven to eleven on third downs. I mean, it was
just extremely efficient for ole Miss. Do I think it's
gonna be that efficient? Do I think they're gonna win
by thirty five. No, but I do think they're gonna
win by three touchdowns in this game. I just think
the talent is a little bit too overwhelming. We talked
about how the first two games are tough to pick.

(24:52):
I don't think these next two really are. I think
everything's on the line here. You know, maybe Ole Miss
with the coaching issues, and you know, some players probably
have one foot out the door. Maybe two lane makes
this closer because of that, I don't think so. I
think this is still gonna be a beat down. And
I think the next round is where you see Old
Miss maybe get taken advantage of in those in that space. So,

(25:16):
but here I think they roll right over to lane.
I don't think this game is gonna be very close.

Speaker 1 (25:19):
Yeah, this might actually be the second half of my teaser.
I might take this down to thirteen and a half points,
just because I do worry that I'm not sure exactly
if the offense will look as good without lane. Behind
that said, and drawing up the scheme for the week.
But at the same time, like when they did face
two lane earlier in the season, Bogs like that was
when in Trinidad's first started. It might have actually been

(25:40):
his first startup the season when they won forty five
to ten. So I'm with you on ole Miss. It's
just gonna be a matter of what number do I take.
Do you think that this number continues to expand throughout
the week?

Speaker 2 (25:51):
Probably that I don't think. I think it's not the
top number it's gonna be is twenty and a half,
I believe, So I think that that's the highest it
could go.

Speaker 3 (26:01):
Okay.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
I don't think many people are gonna take over three scores,
so twenty one and a half, so I think it
sticks below that, and I'm fine at anything under that.
We're showing value at like right around twenty okay, So
I think that's probably a better number to get it
at nineteen and a half, but I'm fine with anything
less than three touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
The final first round game kicks off from Eugene on Saturday,
December twentieth at seven thirty pm Eastern Time with the
fifth seeded Oregon Ducks. They're hosting the twelve seed James
Madison Dukes as twenty one and a half to twenty
three and a half point favorites. Jam you, they got
here with an eleven and one straight up and eight
and five ATS record, they have become the fifth highest

(26:43):
rank conference champion. That's what pushed them in coming out
of the Sunbelt undefeated in conference play. Head coach Bob
Chesney he is right now, really I think I will
say struggling, but definitely a challenge for him to juggle
both starting his new job at UCLA and preparing for
this game. Of course, we know Billy Napier, the former
Florida Gators head coach. He is ready to take over

(27:04):
after the Duke's playoff run. Jam Us running back Wayne Night,
This guy los sensational last week almost got us that
cover single hand. Lee He is now tenth in the
country and rushing yards after popping off for a two
hundred against Troy. Dual threat quarterback Alonzo Barnett the third
he remains under center, leading this team to the tenth
rank scoring offense, largely predicated on that run game. They

(27:26):
also have the second ranked total defense, but that is
a bit weighted because of their one hundred ninth ranked
strength to schedule, so keep that in mind. Oregon their
only loss this season was to number one Indiana all
the way back in October, so that doesn't look as bad.
They're also eight and four ATS this season. Their ninth
rank scoring offense is led by quarterback Dante More, their
tight end Kenyan Zadik, and running back no Winnington. Their

(27:47):
top four total defense is also littered with a ton
of talent at all three levels.

Speaker 3 (27:52):
Bogs.

Speaker 1 (27:53):
I really wanted to see Jim you make some noise
in the CFP, but here we are in Eugene, tough
environment to play. I'm just not sure there's a way
to get invested other than hoping this line.

Speaker 3 (28:04):
Continues to grow and grow and grow.

Speaker 1 (28:06):
And I can get it at the biggest number I can.
Maybe we'll use a boost for that as well. That's
gonna be my strategy is to sit and wait, see
if this can get any bigger, and then hop on
Jmu at the very last second.

Speaker 3 (28:16):
What about you?

Speaker 2 (28:17):
Yeah, I mean, I'm not taking Jamie in this game.
I think come on, I well, I think you said
it right. Like a coach with one foot out the
door is never a good thing. It's specifically when you
have a mismatch of this magnitude. And to me, we
did see jam you play one before school. That was Louisville.

(28:39):
They got crushed twenty eighth to fourteen.

Speaker 3 (28:40):
The lost Washington State two. I don't know if you
consider them P four or not anymore.

Speaker 2 (28:44):
But yeah, yeah, but they should have lost that game.
They won because they had to pick six in that game.
But they beat Washington State. But that the difference between
Washington State and Oregon is an ocean. It's an abyss, right,
Like it's so huge. So I just don't see how
they're in this game. That's really the thing. And look,
they didn't do bad defensively against Louisville. They held Louisville

(29:06):
to two hundred and sixty four yards. They sacked they
sacked Miller Moss six times. This was a strong defensive
performance for them. They're not gonna have that against Oregon.
They're not gonna have that anywhere close to that against Oregon.
So this is I don't like how big the line is.
We are showing value towards JAMU in this line, which
makes me not love it. But this is a game

(29:27):
where I'm probably gonna have some player props. I don't
think I'm gonna have. I may I may go JMU
team total under. Once we get to see what.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
The toll and a half right now is what I've seen,
so I would actually be inclined to go over.

Speaker 2 (29:38):
Maybe on that, what's the Oregon's team total.

Speaker 3 (29:41):
I couldn't tell you.

Speaker 1 (29:42):
On that, whatever would be the total minus thirteen and
a half, So I'm guessing you're probably looking mid thirties.

Speaker 3 (29:48):
Probably thirty three and a half is probably what you're.

Speaker 2 (29:50):
Gonna find if it's anything under thirty five auto take,
and I think I might take that up to like
forty one and a half for Oregon, so I'll be
on their team total over. I think they're gonna put
the boots to them. The only thing that scares me
is this is a massive line, and if you're crushing
them in the first half, do you just play it

(30:10):
safe and run, run, run, run, run in the first
half and then punt a lot and let them climb
back in right, So the line is too big for
me to love it, But I cannot take James Madison.
So even if this goes up to like I guess,
the number would have to get up to like twenty
four and a half for me to even consider James Madison.
So and I don't think it's gonna get there. I

(30:31):
think it gets up to twenty two or twenty three
and a half. I don't think it goes up to
twenty four and a half. So I'll probably stay away
from this game for the most part. But we'll have
more for this on next week.

Speaker 1 (30:41):
Yes is that twenty three and a half right now?
At our friends from hard rock bet.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
So it is twenty one and a half yesterday, all right,
So maybe maybe there will be wiggle room to get
on JAMU, but I I still won't do it. I
don't think we'll see.

Speaker 1 (30:55):
Listen, I have not been to the beautiful city of
Eugene yet. I've been down there to JFU at time
or two. I've driven through there. It's a good little spot.
They got a nice little town there. I think they're
gonna be buzzing. I think you're gonna see some of
the more well off.

Speaker 2 (31:08):
Are they all gonna go to Eugene? I don't know
all the way across the country, by the way, I
don't know.

Speaker 3 (31:12):
Maybe a time is that game?

Speaker 2 (31:15):
Is that an afternoon seven Eastern time? My friend dude,
just the history of the East Coast going to the
West Coast. We just saw it with the Eagles against
the Chargers on Monday Night football. Your your body clock
is off on Lake games there as well. This all
adds up for bad things for James Madison. So I'm
just I'm gonna be off of James Madison. I don't

(31:35):
know if I want to take Oregon with that many
points on the line, but I just don't like this game.

Speaker 1 (31:39):
Okay, Well, I'm gonna have some way to get invested
back my boy PFT and the entire Duke's Nation up there, Bogs.
I'll have that official play for you next week though,
when I figure out how to get.

Speaker 3 (31:49):
Invested with them. Let's keep it moving though.

Speaker 1 (31:52):
We're gonna now jump into the upcoming bowl games, and
we are shifting from the college football rankings back to
the eighth rankings just so when I throw out some numbers,
you guys know where that's coming from. And we're actually
gonna start with the Army Navy game, which kicks off
this Saturday from M and T and Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
This is at three pm Eastern time. With the number

(32:13):
twenty two Navy midshipmen. They're laying between six and six
and a half points on the six and five Army
Black Knights. This is traditionally a very low scoring game. Navy,
of course, they won last year thirty one to thirteen
the Midshipman They finished third in the American at seven
to one in Conference play ninety two overall four and
seven ATS, and they did lose out on the conference

(32:35):
championship game due to tie breakers. They're the top ranked
rushing offense in the country. They are also bottom eight
and pace converting third down to the twelfth highest clips,
so very hard to get them off the field.

Speaker 3 (32:46):
They do have questionable though, they're.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
Starting right guard, their tight end and their cornerback Army. Meanwhile,
they were four and four in AAC play five and
six ats. They also possess a top five rushing offense
a bottom five pace on offense as well. But they
are one of the top teams in the country at
controlling the clock in time possession and limiting penalties as well.
Very disciplined group, but you know, would you expect anything

(33:10):
else from a Service academy Army.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
Their right guard is banged up.

Speaker 1 (33:14):
BP projections right now we have Navy by five and
a half, so Boggs, you know me, I love watching
the Service academies.

Speaker 3 (33:21):
Unfortunately, though I.

Speaker 1 (33:22):
Was owing three when I got invested with them this year,
so I'm out on this one.

Speaker 3 (33:27):
I will watch it.

Speaker 1 (33:28):
I will have a good time with it, but I'm
just gonna sit on the sidelines.

Speaker 3 (33:31):
Do you have a play?

Speaker 2 (33:32):
I like the over in this game. I think this
is set too low at thirty eight and a half.
Maybe has a little more on offense. You know, Blake
Horvath was impossible for Army to stop last season. I
think that's gonna happen again Horvat. I think Navy can
definitely score, so it's just Army scoring in this game. Obviously,
Like you mentioned, they both played a slow pace, eat
up a lot of clock, they run, they chew it.

(33:54):
It's first versus fifth rushing offense here right like, so
we know this is going to be a lower scoring game,
but it went over last year and all we got
to do is get to forty points here and we're over.
So we're showing value there on our VP system, and
I like I like the over because I know Navy's
gonna score. I think they put up twenty four to

(34:16):
thirty somewhere in that range. So it's just getting more
than a touchdown from Army. And Navy's pretty good, but
they're tackling has been miserable. Oh yeah, I think it's
been real bad. I think the grade one hundred and
twenty fourth. We know that Army is also not getting
penalized there first in the country, only getting one penalty

(34:37):
a game.

Speaker 3 (34:37):
Yeah, it's crazy.

Speaker 2 (34:39):
I like the discipline that we have from Army, and
I like the fact that Navy is a little undisciplined
in their tackling. So it's just getting ten points from Army.
I think Navy does the rest. So I'm gonna go
with the over in this game.

Speaker 1 (34:53):
My heart tells me I should go there as well,
especially because I watched so closely that Navy Air Force
game earlier this season and Navy just could not stop them, right,
Navy could not stop them air Force. They throw the
ball a little bit more than Army does, though, and
they're tackling, as you mentioned, was just atrocious in that
specific game. So for me, like, I want to go
with the over, but the pace, the pace of play

(35:15):
is what scares me. Bogs and I was also on
the Army temple over a couple of weeks ago, maybe
a month or so.

Speaker 2 (35:21):
At this point, does it make you feel only better
than Navy was eight and three to the over this year.

Speaker 3 (35:25):
Well as Army, though they I think they would probably
a born seven. Yeah, no it doesn't. It doesn't no
play for me.

Speaker 2 (35:32):
But we expect Navy to pace this game, don't we,
and their five and a half point favorites.

Speaker 3 (35:36):
I would take.

Speaker 1 (35:36):
I think I think I would take a Navy team
total before I would take the just over on on
the game.

Speaker 3 (35:41):
If that makes sense, that's fair.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
So yeah, let's go ahead, though, Bogs and move over
capital one because the Coca Cola Bowl season kicks off
on Saturday night, a PM Eastern Time from Sofi Stadium
with the LA Bowl the nine to four Mountain West
Championship Boise State Broncos. They're catching between nine and nine
and a half points against the eight and four Washington Huskies. Boise,

(36:04):
they just won their third straight conference title over UNLV.

Speaker 3 (36:08):
They won thirty eight twenty one with quarterback Maddix Maxon
back under center.

Speaker 1 (36:12):
He looked great, and their potential opt outs include safety
tyd Benefield, their left tackle Cage Casey as well be
declaring for the NFL Draft. Washington, they really sputtered it
at the end of the season. They lost to Wisconsin
back in early November and then to Oregon twenty six
fourteen last time out. They potentially have opting out running
back Jona Coleman, wide receiver Denzel Boston, and cornerback to

(36:34):
Cardio Davis. However, Jetfish did come out and say that
he expects everyone to play aside from some of those.

Speaker 3 (36:40):
Long term injuries. That includes Davis.

Speaker 1 (36:42):
So they should be getting back their starting safety and
their center who missed that Oregon game.

Speaker 3 (36:48):
BP projections.

Speaker 1 (36:49):
Right now, we have you dubbed by nearly eleven and
a half points. I would, personally, I think like to
take Boise State if Coleman and Boston are out of
this one. But if they're not, I think I'm just
a gonna be boring another stay away from me.

Speaker 3 (37:01):
What about you, Scotti?

Speaker 2 (37:03):
I mean, dude, this is the exact same thought process
I had. I started writing up this game thinking, no
way DENZELP. Boston plays, no way? Yeah, yeah, And then
Jed Fish says we expect everyone to play, and I
guess his wife was at an award ceremony with Joanah
Coleman recently while he was on a scouting trip or
a recruiting trip or something. I don't know, but like

(37:25):
so they're they're connected, right, Like he I feel like
he knows his players very very well. So it seems
like they're gonna show up obviously. You know, maybe maybe
something happens, but we would have heard about it by now.
They're all gonna play. I'm gonna take Washington in this game.
I think I'm with you. I would have wanted to
take Boise stand yeah, but with Washington playing, I mean,
and just they match up really well here. Like Washington

(37:46):
is not in the upper echelona the Big Ten this
year obviously, but they're still in the USC, Michigan, Illinois
area of this conference that tier, I.

Speaker 3 (37:55):
Would say, but me right in there with Illinois, yeah.

Speaker 2 (37:58):
Call on bottom of that tier. Still that's still way
better than Boise State in my opinion. So they haven't
run the ball very well this season, but Boise State's
run defense is awful. I think they're gonna have They're
gonna have success doing that. And the red zone scoring
for Boise State has also been one of their worst
like statistical things this year. They're one hundred and twenty
fourth allowing red zone scoring. So Boise also blitz is

(38:18):
like crazy, and Demon Williams has a fifty five point
three completion percentage against the Blitz or against win pressured.
That's thirteen out of one hundred and forty nine quarterbacks
ranked with one hundred and fifty drop back Interesting, so
they match up well. They can run the ball and
will be better at running the ball against Boise State.
I think that's gonna give their offense more balance, the

(38:40):
balance that they want against a team like Boise State.
And I think they win this one by two touchdowns.
So give me the Huskies and I'll lay the points here.

Speaker 1 (38:46):
Okay, We've got a couple of conference runner ups squaring
off in the Salute to Veterans Bowl from Montgomery, Alabama,
kicking off on Tuesday, December sixteenth, at nine pm Eastern time.
The eight and five Troy Trojans are three and a
half to four point favorites over the eight and five
Jacksonville State game Cocks. Troy, they just lost to jam
U thirty one to fourteen in the Sun Belt Championship game,

(39:09):
but they did cover, bringing them to nine to four ats.
They did lose quarterback Goose Crowder late in that game.
He was seen on crutches afterwards, and they're starting running
back Trey Meadows.

Speaker 3 (39:20):
He has hit the portal.

Speaker 1 (39:22):
Jack State there clawed their way back into the lead
of the CUSA Conference championship game after being down two
scores late in the fourth quarter, looked all but over,
and then they just gave it right back to Kansas
State to lose. That pushed them to six and seven ATS,
and they could still be without their left guard Adrian
Gumm and their cornerback Tyron Taylor. The BB projections right now,

(39:44):
we have this closer two and a half points.

Speaker 3 (39:46):
So I'm once.

Speaker 1 (39:47):
Again tempted to get invest with jack State, specifically because
they have a top five ranked rushing offense.

Speaker 3 (39:53):
Troy is one hundred twelve against the run. But Boggs,
they've burned me.

Speaker 1 (39:58):
A few times here as of late, and you out
of Kansas State ticket to the window last week, so
well continue to fade the game, Cocks.

Speaker 2 (40:05):
No, I'm rolling with Jacksonville State here. I think your
first assessment is absolutely correct. Right. They have that strong
rushing game against a weak rushing defense, and specifically, with
Goose Crowder probably not playing in this game, there's a
potential that he's been mentioned in the portal as well,
so he may be portaling it. We'll see great name.
By the way.

Speaker 1 (40:25):
Also apparently they sat on that broadcast and hope you
caught it. But he was a big top Gun fan
growing up, so.

Speaker 2 (40:32):
He oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah yeah. I
mean great name for him, absolutely, but I don't think
we see him in this game. And this is what
we were worried about for Troy against James Madison, right,
I kept referencing, Hey, look, they just gave up three
hundred and fifty one rushing yard to ODU. Well, they
gave up three hundred and eighteen to James Madison, so
two hundred and seventeen of Memphis in that loss. Arkie

(40:54):
beat them up on defense, only allowing them to have
one hundred and eighty seven yards. So Jackville State isn't perfect,
but this is the best matchup the roster strength from
my guys that see if you winning edge ninety four
verus ninety five here. So it's tight, but we have
opt outs, transfer portal and injuries for Troy. For Jacksonville State,
their guys are coming back. You know, Troy can still

(41:16):
be in this one because Tucker Killcrease, he started seven
games for Troy this year. They were five and two
in that stretch. But I also love that this game
is in Alabama for both these Alabama teams. It's I
think it's an hour away from Troy and two hours
away from Jacksonville, so it should be represented there. But
give me Jacksonville State to run this ball right down
Troy's throat. I don't know why we're catching points here.

(41:37):
I don't understand why Troy is favored, so we're getting
points for Jacksonville State. I don't think that lasts, So
go ahead and get it as soon as you can.

Speaker 3 (41:44):
Yeah, you may.

Speaker 1 (41:45):
Maybe you talked me into because I my heart wants
to go with Cooking Kreole one more time. But it's
just been so heartbreaking the way they've lost these games
as of late. So all right, let's keep it moving
here to Orlando, which will once again host the Cureble
with the nine three Old Dominion Monarchs. They're catching five
and a half to six and a half points against
the nine to three South Florida Bulls ODU.

Speaker 3 (42:07):
They had a really strong season.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
They finished second in the Sunbelt East Division and it
really should have been.

Speaker 3 (42:12):
In the conference finals if.

Speaker 1 (42:13):
It wasn't for those dang divisions, and they were seven
to five ats and actually blew out Troy, who we
just talked about thirty three zero in mid November. They
were led by twenty twenty five Sunbelt Offensive Player of
the Year quarterback Colton Joseph, who was second in the
conference in passing touchdowns with twenty one, fourth in rushing
yards with over one thousand. So this guy was really

(42:34):
their whole offense and he'll be out of this one right.
So this leaves a freshman Quinn Henikel under center, who
rushed for two hundred yards in his one start in
twenty twenty four. Also questionable is their cornerback bostros A
Lionstrow And what started as the Cinderella season with a
couple upset wins over Boise State ended on a rather

(42:54):
disappointing note.

Speaker 3 (42:55):
For South Florida.

Speaker 1 (42:56):
They dropped AAC games to Memphis and Navy down stretch
head coach Al Golash. He is also heading towards Auburn,
taking his offensive coordinator and some key members of that
staff with him. They're already on the road, so they
are gone and they will not be a part of
the Bowl prep. It's unknown whether quarterback Byron Brown will
be up for this. When he led the country until

(43:18):
touchdowns forty two, he did say, though, while he's still
mulling over whether he's going to transfer or potentially enter
the NFL Draft, that we quote have one more game
following USF's regular season finale. They could also be without
their cornerback James Chanall and their defensive end Denard Flowers,
who are injured.

Speaker 3 (43:37):
BP projections, we set this line at over seven and
a half points. Bugs. This is another spot where I
have a bit of a mixed feel. Specifically with the.

Speaker 1 (43:46):
Opt outs, I think I am leaning towards the under.
Though no Joseph, no USF offensive staff. I think that
puts both these teams at a disadvantage on the offensive
side despite them playing at a very fast paced What
about you, NA, I like.

Speaker 2 (44:00):
The over here because it's Byron Brown, man like, as
long as he's playing, I like the over for the game.
I like the over for USF as well, because I
think if he plays in this game, he's gonna want
to let it rip right, Like, You're not going there
to run the ball a million times, You're not gonna
come and play this game to run the ball a
million times. Now, this is a big if. This is
a massive if, right because it goes to is already

(44:22):
out the door. So we know ODU is not gonna
score their traditional amount of points. I think that USF
can get most of this if Byron Brown is playing
in this game. So that's why you know both both
teams are average on defense. Od you played a week schedule,
USF was seven and five to the over. USF is
number one in pace, ODU is twenty eight. So even

(44:45):
with a backup quarterback with a little bit of extra
time to prepare here, maybe that's gonna be good because
they do pace quickly as well. ODU is strong on
defense statistically and in grade, but they have played one
of the weakest offensive schedules.

Speaker 1 (45:00):
Man.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
They faced Virginia Tech, who's one hundred and fourteenth in scoring, Liberty,
who's eighty first, COLSTU, who's one hundred and third. App
State is eighty fourth, ULM is one hundred and thirtieth.
Georgia State is one hundred and nineteenth. That's fifty percent
of their schedule, right there, is against eight teams in
the eighties or lower in scoring. So just awful schedule

(45:20):
when you really break it down, when they did face
decent offenses, the Indiana game was the only one, and
by the way, they turned them all over twice in
the red zone in that game, so they probably should
have had closer to forty than the twenty seven that
they had. But we saw them just get rocked sixty
three to twenty seven against JAMU forty eight. They gave
it to Marshall as well, So USF is going to win.

(45:43):
I think they're going to score a lot of points,
so I think I would lay the six for USF
with no issue at all. I like the over as well.
If you were concerned about O do you doing their end?
I would say the team total for USF is fine.
Again all if Byron Brown is playing, which right now
it seems like he is playing, so we'll roll with it.

(46:06):
If he opts out, I just take the under for
the game, like Seth said initially, so massive. It's a
massive swing. But Byron Brown, like you said, led the
country in touchdowns this year, so I believe in him.
If he's gonna end up playing in this game, I
think we're.

Speaker 3 (46:21):
Gonna have a grudge match on this one.

Speaker 1 (46:23):
I think either with him, I mean without him, I
love the under. I still like it a lot, though,
even if he's in this game, because none of Odu's
past five games have gone over this fifty five and
a half point total. Also, only four of eleven of
their games have hit this mark this season as well.

Speaker 3 (46:40):
They have the twentieth best scoring defense.

Speaker 1 (46:42):
Again, some of that is predicated on who they've played,
but they also get after the quarterback man at a
top eleven clip, and that's something that may trouble USF,
a program that took the thirty first most sacks per
game this season. ODU is also terrible at scoring in
the red zone one hundred and nineteenth in red zone
scoring percent. Will also likely get worse without Joseph. I

(47:02):
will probably also, you know, throw out a ticket for
South Florida just to cover this line if South Florida's
gonna be with Brown.

Speaker 3 (47:09):
But yeah, I just love the under. I think it's
my favorite play of the week. So that that's oh wow, okay, yeah,
I'm very very high on it.

Speaker 1 (47:15):
I think, dude, oh to you, they're not bad on defense.
The only time they really got you know, the doors
kicked off them. We're against JMU who you know, that's everyone.

Speaker 2 (47:24):
I think the sacks that they give up at USP,
Byron Brown makes up for him, right, And I think
those are obviously those are his his time to throw,
right like that, that's really what it is. And they're
first in pace like it all really does depend on him, right.
They're top twenty four and ten plus yard plays, so
it is oh to you there're seventeenth in UH plays
over ten yards, So like, I think there's explosive plays

(47:46):
available for both these squads. And I just really like
Byron Brown if he's gonna roll in this game, I
think he wants to put up as many points as
he can.

Speaker 1 (47:54):
Does he play the whole game though? Or does he
pull a cam Ward like that's the other thing.

Speaker 2 (47:57):
Well, if he doesn't play the whole game is probably
because they've already before.

Speaker 1 (48:00):
Okay, fair enough, let's head south to the site of
the Senior Bolmobile Alabama for the sixty eight Ventures Bowl,
where things get underway on Wednesday, December seventeenth at eight
thirty pm Eastern time. This is one between the six
and six Louisiana Rag Occasions, favored by two and a
half to three and a half points over the Delaware

(48:21):
fight in Blue Hens. The Cajuns, they finished in the
middle of the pack in the Sun Belt West and
were six and six ats this season. They were very
much relying on their quarterback Lunch win Field and their
running back tandem of Elijah Davis and z Island Perry. The
only player missing for them could be their center Cooper Forum,
who missed their finale game the Blue Hens. Meanwhile, they

(48:44):
just joined Conference USA from the FCS level. Pretty strong
season overall to get to a bowl game. They were
just four to seven and one ats tho their quarterback
Nick Minnesooni. He led the conference in passing attempts and yards.
They also have questionable running back Joe Silver, who played
just twenty three snaps in their regular season finale BP projections.

(49:06):
We have Louisiana by nearly four points. Is that the
side you're on, Scott Boggin.

Speaker 2 (49:11):
Yes, I am, and I was kind of surprised by
it when I looked at it, because Delaware statistically seems,
you know, obviously much better on offense. Yes, Louisiana isn't
great on defense either, Like they're just okay, I was
kind of surprised that they won six games. But this
is again massive travel for Delaware versus Louisiana go all
the way to Alabama, so you know, you think about that,

(49:34):
and also think about the fact that five of delaware
six losses were on the road this year. They love
playing at home. They haven't been as good on the road,
so you know, I think the over is in play
as well because both these defenses have been soft. But
of course we just we have to have for Louisiana
to win this game, we have to have our boy
Lunch out there. Lunch Winfield has to be playing. But

(49:55):
Delaware playing at home is the name of the game.
As the FIU game on September twenty was their only
road win of the season, all the way back in September.
There are other road losses Colorado, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Sam
Houston State is an embarrassing loss to have, even on
the road. Obviously, Wake Forest was a loss that wasn't

(50:17):
surprising there. But it's the Cajuns For me in this game,
I don't have a massive amount of confidence. I haven't
got to watch a ton of Delaware or Louisiana this year.
I watched a little bit of Delaware against wake Forest
because I had their team total under Wake Forest defense.
It's just nasty. But I gotta go with the Cajuns here.
It's just less travel. I think they'll have a bigger crowd,

(50:39):
and Delaware has not been good on the road this year.

Speaker 1 (50:42):
I'm actually going to be on the over of this one.
Bogs fifty seven and a half points.

Speaker 3 (50:46):
Delaware. They had that sixth to rank passing offense.

Speaker 1 (50:48):
I think that will actually carve up the Cajuns eighty
seventh rank passing defense and Louisiana they're really good at
running the ball right twenty ninth right now in the
country at their clip for rushing, and I think that
should be enough to get through the hens eighty ninth
raked rushing defense that is considerably worse on the road,
and five out of the seven last game for the
Hens went over this total. They're also six five and

(51:10):
one to the over and seven of the last nine
Cagun games also went over this total. They're eight and
four to the over on the season, So I really.

Speaker 2 (51:19):
Like the over Delaware twenty six in pace as well,
nice fast pace for them.

Speaker 1 (51:23):
Yes, so I think like that's really I just think
the offenses can line up very nicely and attack both
these as you mentioned, soft defenses.

Speaker 3 (51:31):
So that's gonna be my play and let's hope for points.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
Fingers cross, let's go ahead.

Speaker 1 (51:35):
We'll round it out with the Xbox Bowl kicking off
at nine pm Eastern time in Frisco, Texas the seven
and five Missouri State Bears. They are laying between one
and a half and two and a half points against
the six and five Arkansas State red Wolves. The Bears
also made the jump from FCS to Conference USA and
they fared pretty well at five and three in conference play,

(51:56):
also seven and five ATS on the season. They have
the twenty second ranked passing offense. They are led by
senior quarterback Jacob Clark. This guy's been with them for
his entire career. He also led the Conference USA and
passing touchdowns with twenty four of them. They're starting defensive
tack with Ryan Williams. He is questionable after missing the
past two contests. That could be a big loss for them.

(52:18):
Arkansas State, meanwhile, they're middle of the road coming from
the Sunbelt Conference. They are eight and four ATS on
the back of their junior quarterback Jalen Rayner, who also
led the Conference of passing tempts, yards and interceptions as well.
They have a questionable they're stud left guard Tristan Smith,
who's been out since Week eleven, causing them to drop

(52:39):
three their last four against the spread BP projections.

Speaker 3 (52:42):
Right now, we have the Bears by over a point.
That's where I'm heading. What about you?

Speaker 2 (52:47):
Yeah, I'm on Missouri State here, and this one is
going to be extremely tight, I feel like. But I
do feel like your boy Jacob Clark is the difference
maker in this game, and they really just need to
hold give him enough time to hit those explosive plays
thirty second and ten plus yard plays this season, and
I think they're gonna win this one. The Bears have

(53:08):
five players or twenty five catches or in four hundred
or more yards, but no one over five hundred and
fifty yards. So obviously they spread it around, They find
the weakness and hit it. That's what they do. So
they're gonna spread you out, they're gonna pace you as well.
So I really like this offense. I do think. You know,
Arkansas State is a very good passing offense behind quarterback

(53:29):
Jalen Rainer, but they've struggled to put up points, ninetieth
in scoring and in red zone scoring percentage. So I
do think if Arkansas State wins this game, we're gonna
be hearing about the pressure that DeMarcus Hendrix, Ethan Hasslar,
Coda Siegler. We're putting against Jacob Clark, but they grade
very well in pass blocking this season. Right that it

(53:49):
was thirtieth this season? You said, was it the Missouri
State guard or was it the Arkansas State guard that's
down as.

Speaker 1 (53:57):
The Arkansas State left guard Tristan Smith, And apparently from
all things I'm hearing this guy could be an NFL
caliber player.

Speaker 2 (54:04):
Okay, yeah, so not on the Missouri State side though,
I just wanted to make sure to make that clear.
So that Missouri State offensive line is healthy. I think
they're gonna hold up. Not my favorite confidence, I'll be honest.
I don't think I saw Missouri State play more than
like ten plays this year. Maybe I saw one game
with Archie, but not a lot of these guys this season.

(54:25):
But I do think, based on what we've seen so far,
Missouri State is probably going to pull this game out.

Speaker 3 (54:32):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (54:32):
I actually, for whatever reason, I don't know if it's
just the TV contract, I think CUSA. They have a
deal with CBS Sports Network, so I had a lot
of CUSA games on the TV this season, and Missouri
State was actually when I got to watch a decent
amount of So I'm on the money line here. They
gave Kennesaw State, hell, they gave Western Kentucky a tough

(54:53):
out as well, and they also a good offense CFIU
man like. And then also they beat Marshall on the road.
That's the only Sun Belt team they faced, So I
think they're in a good position here. Arkansas State they
actually lost to every non conference opponent they faced at
the FBS level this year, that includes one from the
Sun Belt. So for me, I think I'm gonna have

(55:16):
to go with them. And like, also, the Bears better
in pretty much like every major statistical category we're weighing
in this as well, especially in that turnover margin. Arkansas
State they have really struggled there. Also, Like, I just
love this Missouri State team. I love the heart they've
shown coming up. Seems like they've really bonded and Clark
is at the heart of it. They talk on every

(55:36):
single broadcast how much this guy means the program. He
might be the future head coach. He might be at
least on the staff in the future. So I just
also believe it. In the Conference, USA teams a lot
more than the Sunbelt aside from JMU, so I think
they're gonna prove it here.

Speaker 3 (55:52):
I'm really excited about the Bears.

Speaker 1 (55:54):
Yeah, let's go and Boggs before we get out of here.
It is time for the hard rock best bets of
the week. And what do you have for us, my friend?

Speaker 2 (56:02):
I'm gonna lay the points with Washington. All those guys
are gonna be playing. I think they're just a much
better team than Boise stayed. Overall, I think I think
there are some P four schools the Boise State could
jump up and get. I don't think Washington is one
of them. So going to an NFL stadium and so far,
if everyone's playing for the Huskies, give me the Husky

(56:22):
is gonna lay the points.

Speaker 1 (56:23):
I'm going against you with that one, and I want
to fight you with Old Dominion versus South Florida under
fifty five and a half minus one oh five.

Speaker 3 (56:30):
Four the curable. Oh do you?

Speaker 1 (56:32):
They lost almost that entire offensive per formance. I think
Colton Joseph he meant so much this team.

Speaker 2 (56:37):
He was great.

Speaker 1 (56:38):
I think they're also one of the better G five
teams on defense. And I think USFS offensive staff being gone,
I think that's really gonna hurt them, take some the
wins out of their sales. So plus, like, who knows
if Brown plays that whole game, I said, maybe he
pulls the camboard.

Speaker 2 (56:52):
So it's caveat for me. Like Byron Brown has to
play to be on that over, and if he does play,
I think they put up most of the total them,
so we'll see.

Speaker 3 (57:01):
Okay, Well, there you have it.

Speaker 1 (57:02):
Washington and the over in the curable As are hard
Rock Best Bets, and of course today's show is brought
to you by our presenting sponsor over there at hard
Rock Bet and Big News. Hard Rock Bet is now
live in Michigan, so no worries. I know it is
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(57:23):
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Speaker 3 (58:05):
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Speaker 1 (58:06):
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Coming to more states very soon.

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Speaker 1 (59:03):
All right, and that's going to do for us on
this episode of the Betting Pros College Football Show. We
will be back next week with our official picks and
predictions for the first round CFP matchups and the next
wave of bowl games. Will also be live with you
on the BP YouTube channel and the Fantasy Pros Twitch
account for the first half of the Oklahoma Alabama game.
Next Friday night, seven forty five pm Eastern Time for

(59:26):
an in game betting experience, so.

Speaker 3 (59:28):
Make sure you mark your calendars for that.

Speaker 1 (59:30):
Let us know down the comms below your favorite picks
for any of the games we handicapp today, and while
you're here, to make sure you're smashing that like button
subscribing to the channel if you're new. Also be sure
down that free Betting Pros app sink your sportsbooks today,
start adding smarter.

Speaker 3 (59:44):
Not harder.

Speaker 1 (59:45):
For Scott Bogman, I've said with well, Cock, take care
of y'all.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
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College Football Playoffs & Bowl Games | Early Picks & Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 901)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Playoffs & Bowl Games | Early Picks & Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 901)