College Football Week 13 Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 876) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.
It's Week thirteen of the season and we're firing up
our official picks and predictions for the top ten games
on the slate. I'm your host of Seth Wilcock, and
for better or for worse, I've got my largest card
of the season already locked in. This is always one
of my favorite Saturdays of the year, just because it's

(00:21):
before things get a little weird and rival every week
in bowl season, and we now have over three months
worth of data to pull from. Someone who's always deep
in those numbers is my partner in crime, Scott big
Time Bogman Boggs. How are you and how are you
feeling about the slate coming up? Are you as excited
as I am?

Speaker 2 (00:37):
I don't know if I'm excited as you are, but
I do have pretty good feelings about a lot of
these games that we're gonna talk about today. I feel
pretty good about Texas, even though it hasn't looked great recently,
and Arkansas has stuck to their SEC opponents very well
this year, but I feel good about that.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
So we're doing okay.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
You know.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
Feel less positive about our Steelers than I do about
this college football weekend?

Speaker 1 (01:01):
Sure? Sure, yeah, beggars can't be chooses though, right.

Speaker 3 (01:04):
That's right. Yeah, We'll take a week and get.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
As always, shout out to all the ball knowers who
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Speaker 1 (02:57):
Let's jump in with two feet and start in collec Umbus, Ohio.
The books have now come to a consensus, with the
top ranked in undefeated Ohio State Buckeys now listed as
thirty one and a half point favorites against the five
and five Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Rutgers. Right now, they have
questionable edge Jordan Walker, and there's nose tackle Derek dehone

(03:18):
Osu right now. A couple big question marks for them
at the wide receiver position Jeremiah Smith and Carnal Tate
both questionable, as are some death players on the defense.
BP projections right now, we have this right around thirty
one points exactly. So I'm not gonna lay this big
of a number, will you, Bogman. No.

Speaker 2 (03:36):
I think the line moved the wrong way for us
to get on board with Ohio State. Like I said,
I would have preferred this to drop below four touchdowns
to like twenty seven and a half something like that.
It was thirty and a half when we checked in.
It was originally thirty three and a half thirty and
a half. When we checked in, I thought, look, if
this gets this to twenty eight, then maybe we can
alter it down to twenty seven or something. Twenty seven

(03:58):
and a half twenty eight and a half obviously, but
it didn't. It went the wrong way. I think this
is just clear look ahead spot for Ohio State. You
mentioned Jeremiah Smith at Carnell tape being questionable, so if
they get up do they pull them? We saw Ohio
State let produce score a late touchdown last week as well.

(04:19):
I just cannot get on board with this big of number.
So I would lean towards Rutgers with this many points,
but I probably won't have any cash on this one.

Speaker 1 (04:28):
Yep, I agree with you. I actually really like Rutgers right.
I like the running back Antoine Raymond. He has over
a thousand rushing yards this season. I like the receiving
core too, DJ duff Ian Strong DT Sheffield. They've been
a pretty nice combination out there for the Rutgers. It's
not like your grandpa's Rutgers team. I always remember, you
know Rutgers growing up that they would get you in
dog fights, and that's how if they were ever gonna

(04:48):
win that, that's usually how they would do it. This
isn't that type of team. I just don't think there's
anything I really want a part of this game, specifically
with those wide receivers, Like do they even play them
or if they play him? Like, is it much? Because
they kind a much bigger opponent next week and then
of course the playoffs coming up.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
Man, Yeah, yeah, I just I can't trust it. It's
it's the look ahead and two of their best offensive
weapons are questionable.

Speaker 3 (05:12):
So just pass on that one for me.

Speaker 1 (05:14):
The spread hashrunk in Norman with the number eight Oklahoma
Sooners now just over a touchdown favor against the number
twenty three Missouri Tigers. What was originally thought to be
a season ending injury for Mazoo quarterback Bo Pribola, it
is not. He is questionable to play on Saturday. Oh
you Right now they have questionable RB three Javante Barnes,
Gentry Williams, and some of the defenses too deep BP projections.

(05:38):
Right now, we're showing some value on the Tigers putting
this game right at six points? Is that the way
you're leaning as well, Bogs.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
I like the under here. I think Missouri has played
one of the cushiest schedules in the SEC. This will
only be their third true road game, right Kansas was
the neutral site, and I hated what we saw in
the field from them when they were on the road.
Auburn held them to seventeen points until over time Vanderbilt
held them to ten. They only completed eight passes last

(06:05):
week against Mississippi State in that dismantling of them, so
and that ain't gonna fly against Oklahoma. However, the Tigers
defense has been outstanding this season. They won the Auburn
game and only allowed seventeen in that game. They only
allowed seventeen to Vandy at home as well. And the
longer I look at this, I don't really care who
the quarterback for Missouri is. I just don't think I

(06:27):
can trust the road Tigers and the defense. You know,
in the defense for Oklahoma that has been outstanding. Oklahoma's
looking better on offense, but they're still not outstanding.

Speaker 3 (06:39):
So I just I like the under.

Speaker 2 (06:40):
This feels like a twenty one seventeen at twenty four
to thirteen type of game to me, Missouri can only
run right now, oh U stops the run. Yeah, but
Missouri they're going to try to control the clock and run.
I just don't know that that is going to work
against Oklahoma. So I'll pick the under here leaning. I
guess it would be towards Missouri because I just don't

(07:01):
like this spread that much. I would like it to
be three and a half, two and a half something
like that. I think this might be a field goal game,
but I just I'm not putting money on Missouri right
now with the quarterback questions and the quarterback play that
they've had, being one dimensional on offense and OHU being
at home, and that O line for Missouri really not

(07:21):
looking good on the road. So yeah, I like the
under in this game.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
Yeah. I think that is the right play in this one,
specifically because I think if anyone can slow down Hardy,
it's got to be the Sooners right top four in
rushing defense, so I would think that would definitely slow
this down. John Mateer hasn't looked the same since that
thumb surgery, really, and I've actually seen a couple of
these projection models, including one of CBS's bogs. It actually

(07:47):
has oh you losing one of these last two games, specifically,
because the offense has been so bad, Right.

Speaker 3 (07:53):
That's tough.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
It could Missouri is a very good team, right, So
Missouri could win this game specifically if you keep it
low scoring. Right, It's just a couple of big plays
at that point. But I just don't. I think mateers
looking better the further away from thumb surgery he gets,
and uh, you know, they obviously have the horses on
offense to do it. So I just I'm not trusting

(08:17):
Missouri on the road. That's kind of what it boils
down to.

Speaker 1 (08:20):
Sure.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
Look, I would love to see Oklahoma lose. Don't get
me wrong. Any week that Oklahoma loses, I'm usually for it.

Speaker 1 (08:25):
So but I don't think I don't think they're gonna lose.
I'm just saying I think if anything holds them back
this season, it's.

Speaker 2 (08:31):
The offense, for sure. The defense has been outstanding. Our
Mason Thomas is a killer wan man. That defense is
really good.

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(09:22):
with the twenty first ranked and Sun Belt leading James
Madison Dukes still thirteen and a half to fourteen a
half point favors against the five and five Washington State Cougars.
Both teams should be at or near full health, and
the BP projections are right in line with the books.
What do you think about this game? Bogs?

Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, I think I'm gonna be on the Washington State side,
which is massively fading the public because we're up over
ninety percent of both tickets and cash on James Madison here,
so really yeah, I mean it is very much in
their favor, So you know, I'm gonna take Washington State,
but I'm gonna wait, it's already fourteen and a half.

(10:00):
I think it's going to get out to fifteen and
a half or sixteen and a half at some point
here because just the money is pouring in on James Madison.
But they did a very good job against Louisville's offense
and the only tough game that they played, but they
were handled by the Cardinals defense, and I think that's
what we might have here. James Madison is very strong
in the run game, but Washington State has also been

(10:21):
very strong against the run. They have continuously played up
and down to competition since the defense and took over
in Week five. We talked about that on Monday, like
they did let up Washington and North Texas both score
fifty nine, but since then they have really buckled down
there three and three in that stretch after those games
with each win coming by at least seventeen points or more,

(10:44):
and then the losses home miss Uva, Oregon State all
by three points or less. Right, and those are all
road games as well for Washington State. So Toledo was
thumped by Washington State. That's one of your better G
five schools, right, And that game was twenty eight to seven.
So Washington State has played with intensity on the road.

(11:06):
They need one more win to get a bowl. They're
pretty desperate here, so I gotta take Wazoo with the
points here, and I think fourteen and a half is
a great number, but I think you can wait. I
feel fine at fourteen and a half, but I think
you can wait and make this number better because I
just think it's going to keep sliding a little bit
towards James Madison because it was I think it was

(11:26):
thirteen and a half. At most books you could get
a fourteen and a half. Now it's fourteen and a half.
Of most books you can get a thirteen and a half.
So I think it's going to continue to move out
that way.

Speaker 1 (11:35):
I think you're actually on the right side of this one, because,
as you mentioned, Wazoo's kind of been the G five killer.
San Diego State probably going to win the Mountain West
this season. They were beat by Wazoo all the way
back in Week one, thirty six to thirteen or we two,
excuse me. And then also right after that Toledo. You know,

(11:55):
they go up against Toledo, who's the MAC favorite.

Speaker 2 (11:58):
So it's a good defensive team yeah, now that they
fixed it after Washington and North Texas those were ugly. Yeah,
but they really have seemed to fix that defense. So
I think it's gonna be low scoring, scrappy, gross game.

Speaker 1 (12:12):
Yeah, okay, And the key number of nine and a
half is still being offered in Eugene in favor of
the number six Oregon Ducks against the number sixteen USC
Trojans USC they have RB one wayman Jordan doubtful and
their center John ree Reid he is also questionable. The
Ducks leading wide receiver Decoryan Moore, their slot wide receiver
Gary Bryant Junior, and their RB four Jaden Lamar and

(12:35):
some of the defensive two D players are questionable. BP projections.
Right now, we are right in line with the odds makers.
So Boggs, this seems like a great game to watch.
I'm excited about it. I'm gonna be on the sidelines, though.
Do you have any action on it?

Speaker 3 (12:49):
Not yet?

Speaker 2 (12:50):
But what I want here is I want this to
go down to seven and a half. So the alt
line of six and a half isn't disgusting, right, That's
that's kind of how I see this game. And you
know this has been oscillating like crazy this line because
for yeah, nine and a half, down to seven and
a half. Now I believe it's eight and a half
at most places, So it's between eight and a half

(13:12):
and nine and a half right now. We want this
to get down to seven and a half. It's not
gonna get below that, right I just think it's highly
doubtful it gets below a touchdown. But I think the
thing that we know about this game is that Oregon
is going to score. USC has only played one elite
offense this season in Notre Dame, and Notre Dame went
for four forty two and thirty four points. The other
really good offense they played was Illinois. Illinois went for

(13:35):
five oh two and thirty four points on them. Michigan
State put up thirty one even perdues scored seventeen on USC.
So the USC defense is better, but it's always been
an issue under Lincoln Riley and that has not changed
very much this season. Oregon is going to score, USC
should score, but Oregon's defense is number one against the pass.

(13:55):
We saw USC struggle against a good coverage group at Nebraska,
but their defense showed up for that game and they
won that game. So I think Oregon wins this one.
I think they win this one going away, but they
do play rival Washington next week. But USC is a
tougher matchup, so it's not a look ahead spot by

(14:16):
any means. I know Washington has given or given organ
some fits recently, but I don't think they can look
past us. You'll get beat that way, so give me
the Ducks. But like I said, I'm gonna see if
it gets to seven and a half, so I can
alter to six and a half without discussing juice. So
eight and a half is fine. I think they win
this game by ten points, so nine and a half

(14:36):
even is not a bad bet to me. But I
would love I would prefer it to get to under
a touchdown, just to save any trickiness because USC's offense
is still really good.

Speaker 1 (14:47):
Do you think the wide receiver death will be an
issue for Oregon? Does that concern you at all? If
Bryant Junior and more aren't.

Speaker 2 (14:53):
Up, No, I think they're gonna run. Okay, okay, the
run game has been really good for them recently.

Speaker 3 (15:00):
You've seen them.

Speaker 1 (15:01):
Waiting very efficient. You think he's averaging like eight yards
per carry or something like that.

Speaker 2 (15:05):
They're eighth in rushing per game right now, two hundred
and thirty three yards per game. I don't know if
you're gonna get that against USC, but I think that
helps you control the clock and it helps it helps
more throw the ball as well. So I just feel
like Oregon is definitely gonna score and US he can score,
but if they're held like Nebraska held them, They're just

(15:27):
not going to be able to keep pace with Oregon.

Speaker 1 (15:29):
I think it's like the bitter Penn State fan in
me that I want to see Oregon lose and I
can see it happening in my head. But at the
same time, I think, just coming off the Iowa game,
you know that was a tough ballgame US he just played. Meanwhile,
for Oregon, they were asleep on Saturday, right they are
resting up after really running into a pretty mediocre Minnesota
team on Friday night. So I think I would go

(15:51):
with the Ducks as well if if I had to
make a pick in that one.

Speaker 2 (15:54):
It's not the best Ducks team we've seen. I think
that's that's what makes it feel weird, right This is
one of the worst Duck teams we've seen over the
last like three or four seasons, but they're still very good.
And I just USC is still they're better, but there's
still one sided. There's still a primarily offensive team.

Speaker 1 (16:12):
I can't wait to bet against Oregon in the CFP.
I can't wait.

Speaker 3 (16:15):
I can't wait.

Speaker 1 (16:16):
It's gonna be great. Nine and a half is also
still available if you want that number in Nashville in
favor of the twelfth ranked Vanderbilt Commodores over the five
and five Kentucky Wildcats. Everyone is up in this one
for Vandy UK. They just have cornerback DJ Walker Junior
and a few players in the defense is too deep
banged up BP projections. We're right at ten points, So

(16:37):
another game where we're not showing a ton of value
either way on the spread. Still, were you able to
sniff any out there?

Speaker 3 (16:43):
Bucks? I? Yeah, yeah, I have.

Speaker 2 (16:45):
I continue to question the validity of this Kentucky over
performing stretch.

Speaker 3 (16:50):
Right.

Speaker 2 (16:50):
Texas isn't good. They lost to Georgia worse than Kentucky did. Okay,
Tennessee's defense sucks and they were up big in the
second half. That's why they allowed Kentucky to score. You know,
Auburn and Florida, those were quick games. They Auburn clearly
quit on Hugh Freeze because look at the thirty eight
points they put up the next week. Yeah right, Florida

(17:12):
clearly had you know, they had won the week before,
didn't care about this Kentucky team, and it showed they
got stomped.

Speaker 3 (17:20):
Right.

Speaker 2 (17:20):
So I just don't know if I'm really buying Kentucky
as you know, a surging team late. I think the
schedule has done them some favors, and Vandy is still
fighting for a playoff spot, like we talked about on Monday, Seth.

Speaker 3 (17:33):
I just.

Speaker 2 (17:35):
I think if they were out of it, fine, but
Vandy has given up seventy two points last two weeks
to two mediocre offenses in Texas and Auburn. So I
like the over here in this game. I leen Vandy
as well, laying the nine and a half. But my
favorite bet in this game is Vandy's team total over

(17:56):
thirty one and a half. They've scored against the good
defenses as well this year, so I just think the
offense for Vanderbilt is somewhat undeniable. The only team to
really hold them was Missouri. They even put up a
bunch of points on Texas in the comeback right third.
That ended up being thirty four to thirty one. So
Vandy's defense is not in their best spot right now.
The side is a little more wishy washy to me.

(18:18):
But Vandy's gonna score. That's something I know. Here in
thirty one and a half I think is too low
against a bottom feeder in the SEC like Kentucky, I
think Vandy gets well over that total.

Speaker 1 (18:29):
Yeah, Fandy has been great to bet on this season
eight and two ats, and as we mentioned earlier this
week that the Kami's offense is just so efficient. Right
they're ninth in scoring. It's not because they're high flying
or anything like that. It's because they continue to churn
out third downs every single time, top five in the
country in third down conversion rate, top thirty five in
the red zone. They're making the most of their opportunities,

(18:50):
and I think they do it against Kentucky as well.
What was that team total.

Speaker 3 (18:53):
Number you had, thirty one and a half.

Speaker 1 (18:55):
Thirty one and a half. Yeah, I don't hate that.
I would probably like it, you know, twenty seven and
a half feels feels better, But yeah, I don't hate
that either. We also have seen the spread considerably shrink
in Austin with the number seventeen. Texas long Horns now
favored by between eight and a half and nine a
half points over the two and eight Arkansas Razorbacks. Archie,

(19:15):
they have about a half dozen players banged up in
the defense's two deep Texas, they're a full strength to
our knowledge BP projections. Right now they have Texas by
nearly eleven points. So is this the time to go
Horns up on the burnt Orange Bogs?

Speaker 3 (19:28):
I think you can. Right.

Speaker 2 (19:30):
We're showing over two points of value towards the long Horns,
so I think that's fine. And you know me, I
have a hard time betting my own team because if
they lose, it's like losing twice. So I don't really
like that. I bet the over on Texas and Georgia
and Texas didn't do their part last week. But I'm
gonna just double down on that. We're gonna go with
an over bet here again. The total in this game

(19:53):
is fifty seven and a half. I just think Arkansas
they stuck close in every game, right except for that
Notre Dame thumping. That's the only game that they have
not stuck close to their opponent in I like the over.
I liked it last week for Texas, as I said before,
but Arki is one hundred and twenty first in scoring defense.
They're one hundred and twenty third in total defense. Right,

(20:16):
Texas defense has been awful over the last few weeks.
They allowed thirty one to Mississippi State, Vandy, and Georgia.
They all scored at least thirty one points on this
Texas defense. And Arkansas can move the ball. They're twenty
fifth and scoring the thirteenth in total offense. They're taking
chances their second and ten plus yard plays. Taylor Green
is also third. He has the third most turnover wheth

(20:38):
he plays in the country, which could lead to short
fields for Texas to score as well, which is why
I do give the benefit of the doubt. They will
turn the ball over in this game most likely, and
you know the Longhorns are twelfth and turnover margin Archie
is one hundred and thirtieth. The Longhorns I think should
win big if you want to bet against them, because

(21:00):
Arkie has been sticking to their opponents, I understand that
just not something I'm gonna do. I like the over
in this game. I think the Longhorns do the heavy
lifting here, but I think Arki's gonna be able to
put up points too.

Speaker 3 (21:10):
They'll have some big plays.

Speaker 2 (21:11):
We've seen Texas be bit by big plays over the
last few weeks as well, So yeah, over in this
game as well.

Speaker 1 (21:17):
Man, I wish I could bet player profts because I
would be betting Ryan Wingo anytime touchdown, like my life
depended on it. He's had two straight games of finding
the an zone when he's been up and healthy, So
I think if they can get him involved, if they
can get a little more. We need some more efficiency
out of the run game, right, Like Arc just really
hasn't been that great on the ground this season, and
neither is Wisner, and like they've kind of turned away

(21:39):
from Baxter since he's been back. Maybe it's just not
one hundred percent, but I.

Speaker 3 (21:42):
Think that's it.

Speaker 2 (21:43):
I also think, you know, you replaced four starters on
the old line. It's just taking a little bit for
these guys to gel so.

Speaker 1 (21:50):
A little bit. It's the whole season, brother.

Speaker 3 (21:51):
Well, I mean it's gonna take more than a season.

Speaker 2 (21:54):
Uh, But but we've we've seen Texas offense improved since
that second half in Missisi State. So the line has
gotten better, but it's not there yet and it's not
all the way home.

Speaker 1 (22:04):
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(22:26):
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alert and we have new shows up and to claim
your prize if you are that lucky winner. Sixteen and
a half point tickets for the thirteenth ranked Utah Utes

(22:48):
over the five and five Kansas State Wildcats are all
but gone. Right now, Kansas State's leading wide receiver Jase
Brown is out. Dylan Edwards, of course, their star running
back he has left the program, the U are at
full strength, and the BP projections right now, we have
this between fifteen and a half and sixteen points. But
I'm pretty confident in Utah. I already laid the number

(23:10):
here at sixteen and a half.

Speaker 2 (23:11):
What say you, Bogs, I am I'm fairly confident in
Utah as well, and I'll have a ticket on this
game for sure. I did like it better at sixteen
and a half, obviously, I'm gonna say that. But Avery
Johnson can show up at any time to make this
game interesting. I just don't think that this is the
time to expect that to happen. After their best wide
receiver goes out for the season, right, So I just

(23:34):
that could happen. I just don't expect this to be
the game. I think this is another Utah stomping. We
are showing value towards k State. The bigger this line
gets too. We have a closer to fifteen and a half, right,
so we're already two points over. Even though I do
think this is going to be stomping, I'm becoming a
little more leery on it because Dan Pierre is still questionable.

(23:56):
He's going to start this game, right he's already said it.
The comments that he made yesterday was, look, I'm going
to go out there and live and die for my guys,
and you know you respect that.

Speaker 3 (24:07):
That's great.

Speaker 2 (24:08):
But if we have to go to Bird, Kansas State
turns the ball over very well on defense, very very
well the top twelve. So I just want to wait
till Saturday, and I want to see and make sure
damp Pier is playing and starting in this game. We've
got weird reports. It's college. The reporting is way more
spotty than it is in the NFL. So I just

(24:30):
want to wait till Saturday to take this game. So
that's what I'm gonna end up doing here, making sure
that damp Pier is going to be the starting quarterback
and we don't have to go down to Bird, because
I know.

Speaker 3 (24:39):
You like Bird.

Speaker 1 (24:40):
I like him.

Speaker 3 (24:41):
He's very good.

Speaker 2 (24:43):
Yeah, but but he is you know, a team that
can get turnovers can take advantage of a guy that
has to play a lot of the game for one
of his first few times. So I just want to
wait and make one hundred percent sure that damp Pier
is going to start this game.

Speaker 3 (24:58):
He is, but I just want to wait for it.

Speaker 2 (25:01):
That's all so, and if we do get any wishy
washing news, it may help the line come back down
under seventeen and a half to sixteen and a half,
which is better anyway. So I think if I do
take this, I will be altering it down to that
role anyway. But I do expect Utah to wing going away.
They've been doing it. They're playing their best football right
now and it shows.

Speaker 1 (25:20):
Yeah, I would not want to be a Kansas State
defender in this one, Bogs, because I think this second
ranked Utah run game is just gonna get after them,
and I think by the end of it, being at
elevation out there in the great state of Utah, there's
gonna be like wind hands on these baby. Yeah, I
just think it's gonna be that. And at the same time,
like I don't really trust Avery Johnson anywhere outside of

(25:44):
Kansas State, and like, let alone here in one of
the best environments in college football. So yeah, you'd up, baby,
you'd up. I'm here for him, and let's keep it
moving where there's still time to get on the number
eighteen Michigan Wolverines as thirteen and a half points over
the four and six Maryland Terrapins injuries right now, this
could be a huge part of this game for Michigan.

(26:05):
Justice Haynes, their running back he's out the rest of
the regular season, won't be back for Ohio State next
week either, but also their running back Jordan Marshall questionable
now as well. Michigan's full back was seen practicing today
at the running back position, if that tells you anything.
We also know that starting left tackle Evan Link and
their tight end to Zach Marshall questionable for the Wolverines.

(26:26):
The Turps right now, they have missing a couple members
of the defensive two deep and also on the offensive
line in the depths, so low banged up there too,
but most of their starters should be good. The BP
projections right now, we came in closer to eleven points.
I made the mistake, Bogs. I had an early trigger
finger in the week before we got the Marshall report.

(26:47):
I'm maybe regretting laying this one, but I have a
thirteen and a half ticket. How do you feel about that?

Speaker 2 (26:52):
I feel like Michigan should overwhelm Maryland right and Marshall's
out even with the running backs out. But I'll tell
you I'm not betting this right. And the reason is
because again massive look ahead spot for Michigan, and they
can win without some of their players playing in this
game because they're just so much better than Maryland, right.

(27:13):
And I think the real problem with Maryland is they're
completely one dimensional. They passed it a sixty five percent clip.
I think when you do that against a team with
the great defensive line like Michigan, you're asking for trouble
when you pass that much. So I just don't think
that's a good matchup offensively for Maryland against Michigan, and
it's really bad for Michigan against Maryland's defense. For Maryland's defense,

(27:39):
they have not been stopping the run at all this year.
This is still a run heavy team even down two backs.
The old line is what makes a difference. But you
also mentioned the injuries along the offensive line for Michigan
as well. So I'm gonna stay away because I have
no faith in Maryland. My thought process says the Wolverines,
but they have screwed me coming in going both ways

(28:01):
this year. So I'm not going to lay points in
this game because this is also a massive look at
spot towards Ohio State for Michigan, so I want to
get on board with Maryland. We're showing value towards Maryland.
I don't trust this offense at all, so can't do it.
I'm gonna stay away. My lean when looking over everything

(28:21):
would be Michigan and lay the points. But They've got
me both sides this year, so I'm not doing it again.

Speaker 1 (28:27):
Yeah. I was kind of like you. I was the
cooler for Michigan last year. I lost a ton of
money on them, betting against them when I would face.
I think I was probably own four last year betting them.
I've only bet on one Michigan game this season. It
was the under in that Oklahoma game and we had
that hit room for us. Yeah, so let's see can
we make it to and oh? Can we can we
get there? Shron? We need your baby, we need you shrunk.

Speaker 2 (28:49):
They're a better team at home. They should win this game.
I just I have or they're on the road here
actually at.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
Mary are right they are?

Speaker 2 (28:55):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (28:55):
Yeah, you know, god, this whole thing.

Speaker 1 (28:58):
So I'm worried about College Park. Dude, College Parks like
they're the freaking JV of the Big Ten. Let's get
not Oklahoma, right, Yeah, that means for you too, wor
he's probably that's our that's our resident Maryland fan here at.

Speaker 3 (29:12):
The Fantasy Rice staff. Yeah, he's our turps guy.

Speaker 1 (29:14):
Yeah, better luck next time, buddy. The line has settled
just under a field goal for win. The seven and
three Pitt Panthers travel to Bobby Dodd Stadium to square
up with the number fifteen Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in
prime time. Pitt still has questionable their safety cruise of
Brookings Tech is at full strength BP projections right now,
we are right in line with the book. So I

(29:36):
don't want to play in this one, Scotty, do you?

Speaker 3 (29:39):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (29:39):
Points man over over over, Like I said before, Yeah,
I would lean towards Georgia Tech at home in this game.
But Tech's two highest point totals allowed of coming the
last two weeks that they play. Yeah that Pitt has
scored thirty one plus in every non Notre Dame game
since Hischel took over a quarterback. Pitt has been strong again.

(30:00):
It's the run, but awful against the pass, and we've
seen Haines King takeover as a passer win needed. Pit
is one dimensional as an extreme pass heavy team, but
Georgia Tech has been awful against the pass. They've been
bad against the pass, and they've been terrible at putting
pressure on quarterbacks. They're eighty ninth and sacks per game
one hundred and thirteenth in PFF pass rush grade. I

(30:22):
just think we're gonna have a lot of points from
both of these teams in this game. Now, Pitt plays
faster twenty seventh pace, sixty ninth pace for Georgia Tech.
But we've seen Haines King put up some big totals here,
and Georgia Tech is top twenty in ten plus yard
plays and big chunk plays. They're seventeenth with one hundred

(30:43):
and sixty one this year. So I just think we're
gonna see both sides of this game be able to
score and put up points.

Speaker 3 (30:49):
So I'm gonna go with the over.

Speaker 1 (30:51):
Okay, Yeah, I love Georgia Tech. I mean I don't
need to say that. I think everyone who listens to
any episodes.

Speaker 2 (30:57):
No, I don't think I said the total. It's sixty
two and a half. By the way, that is the total,
so it's high. Okay, I'm still I think this is
gonna be like a thirty five thirty five going to
overtime type of game, So it.

Speaker 1 (31:09):
Could be it could be the only reason I get
any concern And I don't have any issues with Georgia
Tech getting to the point total they need to to
clear this. It's just it feels like every year, Bogs.
There's just this cycle with the Panthers where we start
out the season not much expectations. We slowly start getting
a little bit momentum, and then it's like by the

(31:31):
time we get to November, there's a little bit of hype. Right,
people in the city are starting to take a little
bit of notice. Right, the Penguins might not be getting
alligate super hot, the Pirates are done in their garbage anyways,
and we get to this point that people start caring
about pitt football and then every single year we get
let down.

Speaker 2 (31:46):
Dude, So it's just a Notre Dame game. They're they're
locked in in these accies.

Speaker 1 (31:50):
Maybe do but last year it was SMU. Remember I
laid so much money on them last year against SMU,
Like in a very.

Speaker 3 (31:56):
Simple spot here, SMU was a playoff team last year,
Jordia texa playoff team.

Speaker 1 (32:01):
Dog.

Speaker 2 (32:02):
Yeah, but this pit is way better than last year's Pit.
I think just what they've done on offense since Heinschel
took over, you know, unless I don't. I just don't
think Georgia Tech is gonna be able to mirror Notre
Dame's defense.

Speaker 3 (32:16):
That's all. There's a reason it's two and a half points. Man.
This could easily be a swing one way or the other.

Speaker 1 (32:21):
It could be. Yeah, I'm just saying the letdown for
Pitt is coming outside of the Kenny Pickett year.

Speaker 3 (32:26):
This is you know, this is number time when it's
thirty five to thirty five.

Speaker 1 (32:29):
Okay, okay, alright, it sounds good to be one more
game for you here, and it's the number eleven BYU Cougars.
They still stand as two and a half point road
favorites against the seven and three Cincinnati Bearcats. BYU's flanker
wide receiver Cody Hagen, their RB two Siona Moa, and
some two deep cornerbacks all questionable coming in sincey right

(32:51):
now according to the reports, coming in expected to actually
get back Evan Pryor, their talented running back. Also their
flanker wide receiver Caleb Goode. He is questionable. BP projections
we like BYU by three and a half so I'll
gladly take them on the two and a half in
this spot. Is this a little squad ride to round
us out in here? Bugs?

Speaker 2 (33:10):
Yes, absolutely, I think since he is still in this
right especially with prior back. But how can we pick
against BYU at this point? Once again, the time and
possession for since he being dead last, BYU being fifteenth,
it's hard to bet against that, dude. I mean, I
just think that since he maybe they're able to run here.
But I think the bigger problem is stopping BYU's run game.

(33:34):
So I think they're gonna run down since his throat,
They're going to control the clock, and once BYU gets
that lead, they're gonna be able to force the Bearcats
to throw, and they're gonna be able to pin their
ears back and get after source B since since he
is first in sacks allowed. But remember their time and
possession is also dead last. So we're just talking about
straight up numbers. In past block grade, they're sixtieth, right

(33:58):
BYU is kind of similar in pass rush they're twenty
six and sacks sixty ninth and pass rush grade, but
they're still thirteenth in scoring defense with a much harder
strength of schedule than what since he has had so far.

Speaker 3 (34:10):
So I think BYU gets a lead.

Speaker 2 (34:12):
I think they exhaust the Sincy defense and I think
they start to impose their will in the second half.
So I like the cougars here in the battle of
cats or bear cats or whatever we're doing. So, yeah,
gimme BYU again. I'm gonna lay the points.

Speaker 1 (34:28):
I think as the season has gone on, the Big
Twelve has become a lot more predictable than I think
some of these other conferences a little bit. It's like
you have that top shelf of Texas Tech, and then
you got BYU, you got Utah, and then since he's
in that third shelf right with the Iowa States, the
TCUs of the world, and I think that's right where
they belong. I think BYU is going to prove that

(34:49):
on Saturday, So looking forward to that one.

Speaker 2 (34:52):
Yeah, the Big twelve was the hardest to figure out
for the first six weeks, but now I think it's
pretty good.

Speaker 1 (34:56):
Yeah, I agree, I agree, BOXS. Let's get out of
here on best bet, that's what do you think?

Speaker 3 (35:00):
Yeah, let's do it all right, what do you have
for us this week?

Speaker 1 (35:03):
What is the best bet for mister Scott Bogman in
week thirteen of the season, only two weeks left, folks
of the Reggie what we got.

Speaker 2 (35:11):
I'm gonna give you two, all right, We're gonna go
with this Vandy over thirty one and a half. I'm
just not buying in a Kentucky and then playing up.
I think that's the schedule. I think two teams quit.
I think Texas isn't that good. We talked about that
Vandy over thirty one and a half I really like,
and then we're just gonna go back to the well
in North Texas over thirty six and a half at Rice, right,

(35:32):
they just keep putting up massive amount of points. So
Rice is okay on defense, better on defense than offense maybe,
But I just I don't think they're gonna be I
don't think anything is stopping North Texas right now. So
this offense is putting up a ton of points. You know,
if they are the representative, they'll probably get crushed I think,

(35:55):
you know, by a team that is way more physical.
But right now they're doing it both in the run
and the pass game, and they're just stacking points. So
give me North Texas over thirty six and a half
at Rice.

Speaker 1 (36:06):
That's so funny that you went with that, because one
of my favorite bets that I almost did for this
is North Texas a Rice over fifty five and a half.
Because I'm with you on everything you're saying about North Texas.
The one thing I'll say, Rice actually a top five
rushing team right now per game, and when you take
that into account, they're going against North Texas, They're one

(36:27):
week spot on defense is really against the run. They're
outside the top one hundred in rushing defense. So I
think Rice is also going to be able to put
up some points in this one. So I'm just taking
the over in general and hoping for all the points,
but I don't hate the number just for North Texas
as well. I was also considering that, So.

Speaker 2 (36:43):
The only reason I didn't do that is because I
did it against Navy. And yes, yeah, the running the
running defense is kind of mediocre for North Texas, but
the tackling is still best in the country. The tackle
grade is still number one, so I considered that. I
think that's another good bet because I think think North
Texas goes forty five anyway, so as long as we
just get two touchdowns from Rice, I think we're okay,

(37:05):
but I just I don't know if we're getting it okay.

Speaker 1 (37:08):
Yeah, I feel you there for my best bet, I
gotta do it. I gotta fade the home team Nebraska
plus ten and a half against Penn State, and I'm
also going with the money line Sprinkle plus two eighty five.
I don't think in all the years of my college
football betting career, I don't think I've ever seen a
line that made less sense than this one. I don't

(37:29):
get how Penn State, who is three and seven ats
five and six straight up. Their only wins box have
come against G five opponents and also Michigan State, so
I don't understand how they're laying ten and a half
in this spot right now. It feels like it's Ktron
Allen in the backfield and they're going to DeVonta Ross
as much as they can out wide, and that's pretty
much the entire offense here.

Speaker 3 (37:49):
Do we have any weather in that game or is
that clear.

Speaker 1 (37:52):
As of earlier this week? Because I actually earlier in
the day I need to put up my new internet satellite,
So we are looking good early in the week. It
might be a little bit of rain here and there.
But we're at least going to be warmer than we
have been up here in Pa. So like at least
probably like in the forties or fifties.

Speaker 2 (38:08):
Yeah, because I mean, I think the key for Penn
State is throwing the ball down field. Now, I'll say
Nebraska has been great in past defense anyway, so that
may not be the way to beat Nebraska.

Speaker 3 (38:21):
But let's see.

Speaker 2 (38:22):
Yeah, very clear, cold, well cold for me, forty thirty seven,
thirty six thirty five.

Speaker 1 (38:29):
That's a nice warm day off fenjured right now.

Speaker 2 (38:31):
No wind at all. That wind is what concerns me. So,
no wind at all. So if Penn State can sling
that rock down field, it's harder against Nebraska than it
is most teams. So I'm I understand that you've watched
more Penn State than anybody. I just I do wonder
if you're being a self hating Penn State fan a
little bit for this one.

Speaker 1 (38:52):
The key to this matchup for me is Ethan Grunkmeyer,
our new quarterback. He's averaging just under one hundred and
fifty passing yards per game four starts, three passing touchdowns,
four interceptions. He did look better last week against Michigan State,
but everyone really does. And for me, it's Nebraska's passing defense.
They're the third best in the country. I don't think
they're gonna be able to open up here. And if

(39:13):
I'm John Butler, I'm stacking the freaking box, man, I'm
stacking the box. I'm playing man and saying Ross Pena,
go beat me. Because they haven't beat many people this year.
So I'm saying, hey, I'm coming right at k Tron
Allen right down the pipe, and I need someone to
stop me. And I just don't think they can, Like, dude, like,
say what you want about in Nebraska. Are they a
great team? No, But at the same time, they've beaten Northwestern,

(39:35):
they've beaten UCLA two teams, Penn State loss too, and
also they beat since he back in Week one, which
is a pretty good win for him. They're better in
total defense, they're better in total offense, better in turnover margin.
Matt roll this season two to zero as a dog,
also one to ozer as a road dog. So ten
plus points for Nebraska is just a gift I think
from the gambling gods, and even plus two eighty five

(39:56):
on the money line feels like a great deal.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
It is Latief. I was looking up his name. I
forgot his name because Raola is out for the year.
So it is the backup quarterback here.

Speaker 1 (40:06):
I'm okay, I'm okay with that.

Speaker 3 (40:08):
It is at Penn State. I'm not messing that up yet.

Speaker 1 (40:10):
Yep, we're in a happy valley.

Speaker 3 (40:13):
Okay, all right.

Speaker 1 (40:15):
I don't know, man, Rayola never really impressed. He hasn't
proved to be the one.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
He's not good. Yeah, you're right about that for sure.
So look, you know Penn State better than me, so
I'll ride with you on this one.

Speaker 1 (40:27):
I appreciate that. Here we go, Here we go. Boys.
I hate to do it, but yeah, it's my biggest
bet of the season since I think Week two when
I was on Notre Dame.

Speaker 3 (40:35):
Oh okay, let's go.

Speaker 1 (40:36):
Yes, We'll see what plays out there that is going
to do it though for us on this episode of
the Betting Pros College Football Show still to come later
this week and every week is Bog's best bets and
player props. Let us know down in the comments below
your favorite Week twelve picks. We want to hear from you,
and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like
button subscribing to the channel. If you're new for Scott
Bogman set will Cock take care of y'all.

Speaker 5 (40:59):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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College Football Week 13 Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 876)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 13 Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 876)