College Football Week 2 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 756) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Benning Pros College Football Show.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
I hope everyone had.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
A fantastic Labor Day and week one of the CFB season.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
We'll certainly chat all about that tonight.

Speaker 1 (00:13):
However, as the season rolls on, we have Week two
to look forward to with our early picks.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
In line movement predictions.

Speaker 1 (00:19):
I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, still licking my wounds a
little bit. Great start to the week three and zero
turned out pretty sour thanks to some of the blue
bloods not coming through for the kid. I am joined
by a man though, who I believe had a pretty
up weekend despite his Texas Longhorns losing. That is the
never better Scott Bogman. Boggs, how are you?

Speaker 2 (00:41):
How are you? As we shift gears into Week two action?

Speaker 3 (00:44):
My friend Yeah, obviously Saturday was not very happy with
my Longhorns results. Disgusting game offensively, penalties in the very
worst times. Defense look good and really like the hype
the all off season was Arch and Arch is the
reason why the long Runs lost that game. So that

(01:05):
was a tough one to swallow. But I mean Texas
can still in the SEC still really good team once
Arch gets rolling. You know, you have to play the
defending national champions. Week one on the road is a
tough test. But that was awful. But look my picks
were five and four, my props for six and three,
My leans were four and four. My Wednesday picks were

(01:26):
two and one. Yeah, I didn't get my favorite bet
that Indiana game. That Indiana game is like the exact
you know process over results that we want. Yeah, because
it was two big plays by Oldminion, one bad play
by Indiana. I could have been thirty four zip, but
we'll get into that when we get there. It's just

(01:46):
I'm still it still chaps me. But I got there,
So that was fun.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
All right, Well, today's program does look like this will
recap week one and all the action that came with it,
and then we'll break down the early picks and line
movement predictions four week twos, Top ten biggest games on
the slate. As always, shout to everyone who's back with us,
either on the bank crro's YouTube channel or the audio feed.
We really appreciate you hanging out with us. The easiest
free way to support us. Give this video a thumbs

(02:12):
up If you enjoy this type of content. Also make
sure if you're new, you should be subscribing so you
don't miss a moment of college football betting content coming
for you this season. Let's go ahead and look back
at what was a fantastic Week one. On Thursday, we
had South Florida beat number twenty five Boise State thirty
four to seven, and then support coaching decisions push Georgia

(02:34):
Tech pass Colorado twenty seven to twenty. On Friday, Ohio State,
as you mentioned, they defend the Shoe fourteen to seven
against the Texas Longhorns. Florida State upsets number eight Alabama
thirty one seventeen, maybe the shocker of the entire season
thus far. Number nine LSU surgis late past Clemson seventeen

(02:54):
to ten. Number four Tennessee still looks like they have
it with a new quarterback at play forty five twenty
six over the Orange and then South Carolina on Sunday
they got it going twenty four eleven over VA Tech
and Miami they take down the Irish twenty seven twenty four.
So bog before I get your full reaction to the Slate,
who were your biggest risers and followers when it comes

(03:16):
to the betting markets moving forward.

Speaker 3 (03:18):
Of Florida State. I mean, Florida State looked so good. Yeah,
this is this is a thing that concerned me. And
then you were on it, Terrell Is on it. I
was like, I'm being a coward. Alabama is definitely gonna
beat the crap out of Florida State. We we kind
of forgot about the revenge that Florida State wanted for
being pushed out of the playoff by Alabama a couple

(03:38):
of years ago, right, like that was motivating, and we
talked about, you know, the change in offensive coordinator for
Alabama two with Ryan Grubb coming over. It's a new system,
a new quarterback. We should have respected roster strength, I
think a little bit more, because, yes, while Florida State
is down and they were two and ten last year,
the perennial great roster, right, kids always want to go

(04:00):
to Florida State and play there. And you know now
that they have a quarterback who backed up all that
smack talk in Tommy Castiano's that was a boy. That
was a fun game to watch if you didn't put
too much money. I didn't put too much on it,
so it was kind of a funny game. To me,
but I know you were not having a good time, seth.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
So yeah, I mean shout out to the Florida State
fans man. They showed up in spades. I know that
stadium has been having some renovations over the past few seasons,
so they been able to fill it up. But it
seems like the crowd really got to a young Ty
Simpson there for Alabama. I liked what I saw at
a high as far as like pocket awareness, right, but

(04:40):
he was just a little bit late, especially when trying
to throw over the middle. It felt like, and you know,
there's some rumors coming out now that a lot of
things were you know, maybe not super cleaned up at
the night before at the Alabama hotel, and maybe that
led some of the lethargic gameplay we saw from the
defenders in that one. So tough all around kids, Yeah, yeah,

(05:02):
it's always tough and you don't want to bury anyone.
A couple other my risers and followers that I put
out here on socials earlier today, Bogs Virginia. I thought
they looked great. Beat the guitar out of Coast, We'll
talk about.

Speaker 3 (05:13):
That looked real bad too. I think that's a little call,
may little call and B. But yeah, Virginia definitely looks.

Speaker 2 (05:19):
Improved Utah Utah looked awso.

Speaker 3 (05:22):
Baby, how do they not searched immediately the favorite for
the Big twelve? I mean they are, they have to
be right now, I means up there, so I think
about very good. But everything that Drell said was correct
about Utah. And you know, I missed the under on
that game by a point and a half. I did
not think that Utah was going to be that good offensively.

(05:43):
I thought defensively they'd be good. I thought a new
quarterback mayb would take a little bit with another P
four defense and UCLA, but nope, UCLA was not an
issue for Utah at all.

Speaker 1 (05:54):
Yeah, and speaking of the Big twelve, man Kansas State
just narrowly surviving a major upset to an FCS team.

Speaker 3 (06:00):
So North Dakota's a really really good Yes, they are
now I'll say this. Iowa State played another really good
FCS team and beat the Brakes off, so I would
say definitely a better team than Kansas State right now,
specifically without Dylan Edwards. We'll see if he's back soon. Here.

Speaker 1 (06:17):
Any final thoughts, any final touts, any victory laps and
he you know, would have been could have bins for you,
bogs for me, like shout out to the Buffalo Bulls
and the Gophers on Thursday night that they couldn't score
any points.

Speaker 2 (06:30):
That was great.

Speaker 1 (06:31):
And then Deon Sanders man, I mean, what a story Like.
I don't think everyone knew how much he was going
through this offseason.

Speaker 3 (06:38):
With an enormous amount.

Speaker 1 (06:40):
Yes, I mean, so I'm so happy he's back, but
definitely some really bad blunders to walk out of that
game with two timeouts in your back pocket. After Haines
King just keeps going down the field scoring with his legs.
They didn't have much other offense there, lost their top I.

Speaker 2 (06:54):
Mean, what was with these top wide receivers going down too?

Speaker 1 (06:56):
We had Antonio Williams, we had Malik Rutherford going down
before they even got touched.

Speaker 2 (07:01):
Fell lot like Dylan Edwards there in week one.

Speaker 3 (07:03):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know, just when you get
out there and you start giving everything, you've got hamstrings,
old injuries, get back out, plus you know, get all
the equipment on. It's still really hot right now, so yeah,
there's conditioning things going on for everybody, and injuries happened.
But I mean the Uh, Trell and I were dming

(07:24):
during that game because you were you were out. You're like,
I'm gonna watch it later, don't send me messages. So
it was Trell and I and uh, your boy, your
boy Haines King had that fumbled snap and uh, and
Trell started giving me garbage. He was like, he was like,
your boy Haines King looks shaky, and I'm like, that's
Seth's guy, right, And then at the end of the game,

(07:45):
I was like, I'm pretty sure we're all Haines King
guys now. So, uh, he was outstanding in that game. Yeah,
that was that one. Was a lot of fun and
nice back and forth game. South Florida looks so good.
I think it's a little trappy. This week we're going
to talk about that game.

Speaker 2 (08:01):
We'll talk about it.

Speaker 3 (08:02):
But yeah, there's a lot of takeaways from Week one
and they're not complete. We're not done being surprised yet.
And I think if there's anything that you've learned, anyone
has learned from a Week one, and you'll learn it
every year if you don't know it, last year was
last year. This year is a completely new year. Ignore

(08:23):
last year. And that's those trends. If you followed the
trend to Brian Kelly losing openers, you lost that game, yeah.

Speaker 1 (08:29):
You know, or Alabama winning every opener since what two
thousand and one or something crazy.

Speaker 3 (08:35):
So lots of busted trends, and this is why.

Speaker 1 (08:38):
We say, you know, it's always good to try to
go in a little conservatively. We grow as our betting
cards do throughout the season. We talked about that in
the Strategies episode. However, it is tough right because we're
staring down down the barrel. We haven't been able to
bet college football live action in month, so got it.

Speaker 3 (08:55):
It's a trigger finger. That's all understandable.

Speaker 2 (08:58):
Yep, yep.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
So it's growing, right, that's part of the process. Let's
go ahead, though, bogs. Let's turn the page here to
our Week two early picks and line movement predictions. And
please keep in mind everyone that these odds and rankings
are courtesy as of Monday, so if something changes by
the time this hits the wire, just kind of keep
that in mind that we're trying to be as most
up to date as we can. And let's start right

(09:19):
there in the noonslate where the Baylor Bears they hope
to get back on track Saturday, when they are two
and a half to three and a half point underdogs
to the sixteenth ranked SMU Mustangs. Baylor coming off that
thirty eight to twenty four loss to Auburn at home
in Week one, but they did have the third most
returning production in the country coming back, including Sawyer robertson

(09:41):
six straight wins to end the regular season last year
as well, So so much hope for this Baylor program. SMU,
on the other hand, they have eight starters returning from
their surprise CFP run last year, including quarterback Kevin Jennings,
but they mostly have a pretty new defense that allowed
East Texas A and M.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
That is a school.

Speaker 1 (10:00):
I did check Bogs three hundred and fifty one total
yards a one fourth down conversion rate on three attempts
as well. So after opening at six and a half,
where do you think this line is heading for two
teams who failed to cover it in Week one and
have not met in nearly ten years.

Speaker 3 (10:16):
Yeah, it's already from what I looked yesterday on Sunday,
it is already down half a point towards Baylor, So
I think money might flow towards Baylor. I think it's
going to be pretty stuck in this two and a
half to three and a half range. Though Baylor struggled
to stop the run, and I know SMU's defense did
not look the same either. But Baylor struggled to stop

(10:37):
the run. They allowed three hundred and seven rushing yards
to Auburn right and they had a major defensive lineman,
Jackie Marshall, go down with a high ankle sprain early.
So SMU last season ran at a fifty three percent pace.
Kevin Jennings doesn't rely on his legs nearly as much
as Jackson Arnold, but he can pull it down and

(10:57):
run with it whenever whenever he needs to. I think
the real difference here in this game to me is
the SMUO line versus the Baylor defensive line. We saw
the Barrel defensive line not be able to stop anything
that Auburn through at them. You know, they are a
good team. I think they you know, a couple bounces

(11:18):
go their way, they could win this game. That's why
this line is very close. But I just see what
Jackson Arnold did to them last week. I know Kevin
Jennings can do a lot of the same I think
I'm going to take SMU and lay the points here.

Speaker 2 (11:30):
All right, let's keep it moving.

Speaker 1 (11:32):
But first I did want to remind everyone that you
can track line movement in real time with the Betting
Pros app. Download the free Betting Pros app for iOS
and Android and with sportsbook Sinc. You can automatically track
bets across all major sportsbooks in just one spot. Easily
monitor your bet performance by sport and bet type, including
game picks, props, and parlays. Create custom betting systems to

(11:56):
find winning trends and profitable opportunities. Get a seven day
free trial of Betting Pros Premium by downloading theapp at
bettingpros dot com slash apps, using the code juice and
activating your trial on the upgrade screen. The Syhawk Trophy
is backup for grabs at noon on Saturday, as the

(12:17):
Iowa Hawkeys will travel to Aims to battle the twenty
second ranked Iowa State Cyclones. The Hawkeys failed to cover
against Albany in the opener, but they did get the
thirty four to seven win.

Speaker 2 (12:28):
Kind of impressive considering it.

Speaker 1 (12:29):
Was South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski as the quarterback
in his first start as a Hawkey. They're also replacing
running back Caleb Johnson and six starters on that defense.
Iowa State, meanwhile, they come in just absolutely hot out
of the gates here this year. Covered in two straight games.
They beat Kansas State in Dublin in Week zero as

(12:50):
three and a half point dogs, and then they beat
up on South Dakota State fifty five to seven. They
were only sixteen half point favorites. I thought about maybe
laying that, but you know, we kind of talked to
I think it most maybe even off camera with Trell
that sometimes coming back there from Dublin, you know, sometimes
there's gonna be trapped games. But Iowa State they kept
it clean.

Speaker 2 (13:06):
Man. They won this game last year.

Speaker 1 (13:08):
But this is a rivalry Bogman that we know bounces
back and forth, back and forth. Four straight seasons of
that usually pretty low scoring affair. And the total tells
you that as well. So Iowa State is a three
and a half to three point favorite. Do you think
that remains the same by kickoff?

Speaker 3 (13:25):
Man, Yeah, I think that's probably gonna be about where
it lands. I don't think, you know, maybe get out
to four, four and a half, but I don't that's.

Speaker 2 (13:36):
Usually don't see it with this game.

Speaker 3 (13:38):
Yeah, yeah, this is going to be a tight game.
To me. I think the total has already moved down
a point. I'm trying to get that as quickly as
I can. I kind of like Iowa State, and if
you're gonna take a team in this game, I mean,
if you want Iowa, fine take the points. But if
you want Iowa State, just take the money line. That's
what I would say. Just take them the win straight up.

(13:59):
There's weird bounces in this game. This game is just
always defensive. I feel like as well, you know, Iowa
unders haven't been the the track star that they used
to be. But I think for this game, I think
this is a game that I like the under. I'm
going to lean towards Iowa State on the money line
and leaning towards the under right now. I did see

(14:22):
some people calling for the over, so maybe we'll get
an investment in the over here and we can get
it to balloon up. But it has already come down
one point, and the betting right now very still too early, right,
but it's heavy on the under. So if you want
the under, you may need to get it now. But
I don't know. I do think that because of the

(14:43):
trend of Iowa hitting some overs recently, that's going to
go back up. But if Mark Gronowski's gonna be eight
for fifteen with less than fifty yards against Albany, I,
you know it has to improve against Ioa State because
that's just miserable. But how much better I think. I
think Iowa he doesn't score a lot, but I think
their defense is still strong, so I think this is

(15:04):
just a low scoring, muddy, gross game.

Speaker 1 (15:06):
Yeah, I might be looking like Iowa State maybe for
like a team total over or something, or in Iowa
under Like I do agree with you. I think Iowa
State should win this game, but it's just something I
don't feel confident enough I think to get invested with
right now. But we'll kind of see how the week
shakes out for us and goes along. But I definitely
do like potentially getting invested somehow, maybe in a team total.

(15:30):
Staying in that noonslate though, we do have the number
twelve Illinois fighting Aliini traveling to face the Duke Blue
Devils under the direction of triggerman Luke Altmeyer.

Speaker 2 (15:39):
Illinois.

Speaker 1 (15:40):
They finished ten and three last season, fifth in the
Big ten, and they've returned sixteen starters, that is the
second most in the Power for They also covered in
four straight to end last season. They covered in Week
one again against Western Illinois, winning fifty two to three. Meanwhile,
Manny Diaz He took the reins for Duke last year,
coming over from State, leading them to a nine to

(16:02):
four record, seventh in the ACC. Darien Mensa he is
now taking over from Alik Murphy, who transferred Mensa coming
in from Tulane, joining eleven returning starters. They failed to
cover the spread against Elon, but they.

Speaker 2 (16:15):
Did cruise to the over in that one.

Speaker 1 (16:17):
So Boggs the I opened as one and a half
point favorites that has since moved to a two and
a half three point line. Does that continue to move
in that direction you think this week?

Speaker 3 (16:29):
I think it should, and I just I do like
Duke this year. I think when Duke gets a good quarterback,
they're a good team. And I do think Darian Mensa
is a good quarterback. I think he's going to do
strong things for this Duke offense, more than Malik Murphy
did for this Yes, I agree, but this is a
too tall of attest, too soon into his reign here

(16:49):
at Duke. So you know you mentioned about the starter's
fourth and total returning production, fourth on offense, tenth on
defense for Illinois, And what I really didn't like from
that I saw from Duke in that game against Elon
where you mentioned they did not cover. They gave up
one hundred and sixty three rushing yards. Oh wow to Elon, Right,

(17:11):
what is Illinois gonna put up on this Duke defense?
If they're gonna play like that against Elon? I think
Illinois is going to possess the ball of bunch. They
have a strong defense. I think if they get on
a lead, it's going to be hard for men's that
have come back on them. So to me, this is Illinois.
I also kind of like the under. I think, you know,
Illinois is a team that plays for the slow pace.

(17:32):
They run a bunch. I think they're going to control
the clock. So I'm big on Illinois in the under
this week.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
Yeah, I think if I had to make a play
on this game, it would be the under. And for me, Bogs, like,
would you suggest getting on Illinois now while we still
have a ticket that's less than a field goal out there? I?

Speaker 3 (17:50):
Yeah, if you could get it right right now, and
it's less than a field goal, I would do it immediately.

Speaker 1 (17:55):
All right, Well, we have an SEC clash in Lexington
at three point thirty with the nonumber twenty one Ole
miss Rebels on the road against Kentucky Lane Kiffin's ReBs.
They finished ten and three last season, fifth in the SEC,
but gone our Jackson, Dart Walter, Nolan, Trey Harris, Trey Amos,
among some others as well, so we now. Sophomore quarterback
Austin Simmons, highly touted coming into this one, made his

(18:19):
starting debut in Week one, winning and covering against Georgia
State sixty three to seven.

Speaker 2 (18:24):
Kentucky.

Speaker 1 (18:25):
Meanwhile, they got their season jump started with a twenty
four to sixteen win against Toledo, but left the back
do were open baby, for those pesky Brockets.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
It's alright, it's alright.

Speaker 4 (18:38):
We were on the opposite sides of that game, so
I understand the Rockets actually outgained the Wildcats as well,
and despite big days from Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan,
the running backs from Kentucky, they were kind of banged
up coming into that one, so was surprised to see
them run as well as they did.

Speaker 2 (18:55):
But big Zach Calzada just ten.

Speaker 1 (18:57):
Of twenty three eighty five yards and a pick in
his return to FBS football. This spread open to nine
and a half points, and it has grown to ten
ten and a half.

Speaker 2 (19:08):
At most places as well.

Speaker 1 (19:09):
So Boggs, do you think this continues to move and
get wide open here?

Speaker 2 (19:13):
For ole Miss?

Speaker 3 (19:13):
First of all, I just want to shout out to
you being on Toledo. I got it leon and a
half early and that safety host me And whose fault
was that? It was Zach Calzatta's fault. It wasn't the
defense's fault, which is why I was betting on this team.
I thought, Eh, cals Lotta is good enough. Like I
was like, this, dude's gonna put up you know, twenty

(19:36):
four to thirty points something like that. That's gonna be fine. Nope, miserable. Uh.
We need to be able to separate the overlook games
in the games that Kentucky will show up for.

Speaker 1 (19:46):
Right.

Speaker 3 (19:46):
This is something that has been a problem. So they
clearly overlooked Toledo for ole Miss. But that being said,
that offense under Calzatta looked so bad. The defense was
strong enough to win the game, but they will have
to do the heavy lifting now. Ole Miss has a
lot of changes as you mentioned ninety fifth and total
returning production, but they still have a roster strength inside

(20:09):
the top thirty right and under Lane Kiffin. They lost
to Kentucky last year at home. Remember that game. So
every game that Lane Kiffin has coached at ole Miss
where they played Kentucky, has been a tight one. But
this game, look, I'm gonna buck that trend right. Ole
Miss should stomp Kentucky into the ground. This is not

(20:31):
a very good team. Calzada was ten to twenty three.
They got twenty six percent of their yards on that
doubtle touchdown run of seventy nine yards. None of the
trends should matter for this one. I think I'm just
When Lane Kiffin was a OC for Bama, they did
smack down Kentucky, so he's beat Kentucky bad in his
coaching career, just not as the head coach of ole Miss.

(20:54):
I think this is the year. I do not believe
in this Kentucky team at all. They are at home.
The trend say that you should like Kentucky. I watched
Kentucky play last week and I do not like anything
about them. The defense is okay, but that offense is
so far behind. I just don't think it's gonna keep
him in this game.

Speaker 1 (21:12):
Even with all the SEC bias that was on the
SEC network coverage of that game, It's still like Kentucky
is still pretty mid for me though, Bogs Like I
do want to go with Old Miss here, but I
just have the same memory of last year's upset. Right,
fifteen and a half point Dogs in Oxford. I think
the best play in this game, and talk me out
of it, maybe the under fifty two and a half

(21:34):
right now, I think.

Speaker 3 (21:35):
That's still money that Old Miss will put up because
they don't. They don't come off the gas. Right.

Speaker 1 (21:41):
You make a good point, But like you got to
keep in mind too, the last two matchups between these
two averages thirty nine points, and those games had Jackson
Dart in him. One of them also quit Shaw Judkins
was in the backfield with Dart. So there are a
few things I will give Kentucky credit for last week.
One Kroger Field, that place was rocking, man, that place

(22:01):
was rocking. You could see it getting it Toledo's way
early on. There also, their defense was forcing turnovers. That's
how Kentucky got on the board very quickly. Right off
the rip is Toledo turn it over? Plus they can
run the ball man. Those running backs were getting after it.
So I liked some sheed clock here potentially, And while
I do think Austin Simmons is a promising young quarterback,

(22:22):
how many times last week did we see for these
ranked teams with young quarterbacks get off to slow start.
So maybe in a first half under is potentially in
play for me, But I definitely think I'm gonna go
under on the total. But there is always the risk
that Lane likes to do what Lane likes to do,
whether that's on his Twitter account, whether that's on the field.
We see it week in and week out.

Speaker 3 (22:41):
It would also make a lot of sense for Zach
Calzada to screw me back to back to this right
like week one and week two, to get me exactly
both sides of it, picking for him and against him.
So that would make a lot of sense as well.

Speaker 1 (22:54):
Okay, all right, Well do you want to track all
your wagers in one place? Well, check out the betting
pros pick trackers up with your sportsbooks to tally which
picks are hitting and which picks are missing. Plus, it
gives you a live look at what the public is doing,
so you can use real time tracking to determine which
play to make and which to fate. Track your picks
today with the Betting Prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com, slash

(23:17):
tracking or on the Betting Pros app. Another cross conference
clash comes into the three point thirty slate, with the
Kansas Jayhawks traveling to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers.
After a pretty disappointing five and seven season for Lance
Leipold's group Rock Chalk, They're off to a hot Tunoh
start one on one ats, winning thirty one to seventeen

(23:39):
against Fresno in Week zero and then forty six to
seven against Wagner in Week one. Of course, they are
led still by dual threat quarterback Jalen Daniels and Missouri.

Speaker 2 (23:49):
They're coming off a ten to three season fourth in
the SEC.

Speaker 1 (23:52):
However, I'd say that was a pretty disappointing result given
they were a preseason top five ranked team last year.
The defense there turning eight starters, the offense has five back,
but they are saying goodbye to their two top rushers,
veteran quarterback Brady Cook, who's banged up a lot of
last season, and then second round NFL draft pick Luther Burden.
The third they would go into the portal, they got

(24:13):
Penn State transfer Bo Privola and crossport athlete Sam Horn,
who was drafted by the Dodgers in this year's MLB draft.

Speaker 2 (24:20):
It was supposed to be a competition, however.

Speaker 1 (24:23):
Privola got the start, looked great against Central Arkansas, completed
eighty two percent of his passes two hundred and eighty
one yards two touchdowns, and then added another two touchdowns
on the ground sixty five yards as well. If you
like Miszoo, you can get them from anywhere between a
six and a six and a half point favorite. This
was right around the five and a half mark this morning, though,

(24:43):
So Boggs.

Speaker 2 (24:44):
Do we continue to see money come in on the
Tigers this week? You think?

Speaker 3 (24:48):
I kind of think so. I think when you think
Kansas versus the SEC, right, I think the main thing
is just the names, right, Missouri's and SEC school. By
the way, the roster strength kind of bears that out
as well. It's eighteen for Missouri to sixty while for Kansas.
So Missouri just a really good squad that hasn't really

(25:09):
put it together recently. I like your boy, bo. Prebula
looked really good last week, feeling in for Sam Horn.
I think Sam Horne was supposed to start that game,
got hurt or sick or something. Before the game, I
didn't play. My Missouri buddy was very, very excited about Prebula.
I drafted Zolors in a CFF league, so I'm excited
about him too. But you know, I think this defense

(25:32):
the top ten in defensive returning production. They're at home,
they have the much higher ross rating. Kansas like this
one might be close. I think in the first half, right,
Kansas has already played two games, they've ironed out some
of the issues already, and Missouri's only played one game
against a much much weaker opponent. It's two weaker opponents

(25:53):
for Kansas, of course too. But I just I think
this is a I'm gonna lean Missouri in this game.
I'll lean the over for the game, maybe the first
half under I don't know. I really don't love this game.
If I'm picking anything, it's Missouri. But this is also
the Border War. This is a throw the you know,

(26:14):
in the first time we're getting it since twenty eleven, Right,
so emotions are gonna be high for both these teams
going into Week two. It's not my favorite game. I'll
pick Missouri. I'll lean Missouri in the over. Don't like
it very much.

Speaker 1 (26:28):
Though, when I think if you want the Tigers, you
have to get in now, right, I feel like that's
probably what we're looking at.

Speaker 2 (26:33):
It's probably gonna as probably wait.

Speaker 1 (26:35):
Yeah, okay, all right, and what a treat we have
here in Gainesville where with the fifteenth ranked Florida Gators,
they're laying sixteen and a half to eighteen a half
points on the South Florida Bulls. South Florida they rolled
over a top twenty five ranked team in Boise State
in Week one, winning thirty four to seven. With Byron Brown,
he was back under center. He looked great, he ran

(26:57):
for two touchdowns, had this offense and averaging.

Speaker 2 (27:00):
Over seven yards a clip.

Speaker 1 (27:01):
And after a long second half where they covered eight
of their last nine games, I feel like the hype
for the Florida Gayors.

Speaker 2 (27:08):
Is just really really beginning.

Speaker 1 (27:10):
And they're led, of course by sophomore quarterback Heights Bean
hopeful DJ Lagway health was kind of the major concern
for him coming into the season. Wasn't always out there
in spring, didn't play in the spring game at one
hundred percent, but he looked fine and Florida's fifty five
to zero win over l Iu I mean talk about
some bad Week one matchups, man, Lu? I mean that

(27:31):
is you're scraping the ball on the barrel there, so
you can't really take much from it other than Lagway
looked healthy. Bogs and these two scoals. They've met twice
since twenty twenty. In twenty twenty two thirty one twenty
eight Florida that was a twenty six point spread that
they obviously didn't cover, and then twenty twenty one forty
two to twenty Florida, again twenty eight and a half
point spread that they did not cover. So what do

(27:53):
you think here, man, Like, giving a USF track record
in this matchup and their big Week one, will there
be some money coming in on them or can we
maybe wait for a longer number.

Speaker 3 (28:04):
Look, this is a leaddown spot for USF, is it not?
You beat your main contender for the G six playoff
spot in Boise State Week one and you beat them down.

Speaker 2 (28:15):
You embarrassed rank by the time we get to Tuesday
or Wednesday could be.

Speaker 3 (28:19):
So they looked so good. Byron Brown had the two
big rushing touchdowns. He didn't turn the ball over, they
had the balls. He fake punt? What a fake punt? Oh?
That was great? Did you hear Golish talking about it?
He said, Look, we just knew our incoming backup quarterback
was kind of skinny white guy like the rest of
the punters, so we assume maybe no one would notice

(28:42):
him go in there, and nobody did, including me. I
was like, what is happening here? Uh?

Speaker 2 (28:47):
Changed the whole game open momentum? Fully did it?

Speaker 3 (28:51):
Really did? And then we talked about how Goalish is
so good in the third quarter, and you saw that
whole second half it was all usf It was not closed.
So Golish is a very very good co This also
might be a look ahead spot for Florida. You see
who they're going on the road against the following week
here le su yep the Tigers. Tigers look like a
national contender. The Gators look like a national contender. With

(29:16):
lagway back, they got a top twenty five returning production
on both sides of the ball Levinton total returning production
for Florida here, I think the number on the game
is correct, But I think the play in this game
is the under. USF shouldn't have those explosive big plays.
I don't think you're gonna see a lot of those,
you know. I think everybody's gonna be ready for their

(29:36):
fake punt now, right, Yeah, So I don't think you
can unleash that twice you burned it. And I think
that Florida, once they get on a lead, they're gonna
want to lean on it and play vanilla. You don't
want to, like, open up your playbook and show LSU
a bunch of stuff that you can do for next week.
You played Long Island. So if you can beat South
Florida without using some of the you know, your trick

(29:57):
of your play some of the stuff you've been working
on the offseason, you can save that for next week.
I think they get pretty conservative and boring in the
second half if they're leaning on a lead. So my
favorite play of the week I think is going to
be the under in this game. Fifty four and a half.
So I just think that I like that USF is
not gonna be able to do what they did against
Boise State against the Florida defense, and I think once
Florida gets the lead, they're gonna kind of ratchet it down.

(30:21):
So under in this game it's my favorite play.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
Yeah, And honestly, I really like the running backs that
Florida was deploying this past week and late into the
season last year that they had coming back here. So
with that and that defense in mind, I think the
under might be a good play. Fifty four and a
half does feel like a big number of their bugs,
so like that that might be something I'm tailing you
on the Week two headliner, though it is the fourteenth
ranked Michigan Wolverines. They're heading to Norman as a four

(30:47):
and a half to five and a half point dog
to the eighteenth ranked Oklahoma Sooners. Michigan was really really
hard to trust last season, finished eight and five straight
up six and seven ats.

Speaker 2 (30:58):
Though five star.

Speaker 1 (31:00):
Recruit number one overall player in the twenty twenty five class,
Bryce Underwood, we know that he is going to be
the starter once again. He got the Week one start
over Fresno transfer Mikey Keane, which I think was somewhat
surprising to some folks around the industry and Michigan. They
also brought in Alabama transfer Justice Haynes in the backfield,
who went for one hundred and fifty nine yards three touchdowns,

(31:21):
and last week's home opener against New Mexico where they
did not cover though winning thirty four to seventeen. I
think you were on that Justice Haynes.

Speaker 2 (31:28):
Anytime touchdown, right, I think it was on your yuard. Okay, yep.

Speaker 1 (31:31):
And meanwhile, Oklahoma they reloaded this offseason as well. They
finished six and seven straight up, had that big upset
winner over Alabama last year, finished thirteenth in the SEC.
Though they go out they bring all five their starting
offensive lineman back. They have a new group of wide
receivers for Wazoo transfer quarterback John Mattier, who led the
nation in touchdowns responsible for forty four last season. Boggs,

(31:55):
We've seen this line move tremendously since opening cruisers already, Yeah,
since it opened closer to two and a half points.
So does it continue that way or do things maybe
you swing back when money comes in on Big Blue.

Speaker 3 (32:10):
I think the thought process is, Look, Oklahoma was pretty
good last year. They fixed the old line, They fixed
the quarterback problem. They're good. I think that's the thought.
I don't believe that. I don't Maybe that's the case,
but you know, who knows. They have not been tested.
So such an interesting game. Both teams were way way

(32:33):
worse on offense than they should have been last year.
Michigan got Underwood. The offense looked much better against New Mexico.
Oklahoma looked really really good against a decent FCS team
in Illinois State under new QB dra Mattier. They had
shade under five hundred yards. They only allowed one hundred
and fifty one yards, So they look good. And you know,
better to look good than bad, even if it's against

(32:54):
some bad opponent. But right, I dug in a little
deeper on the grades for the ou lineman. This is
an offensive line that is just so much better in
pass blocking that it is run blocking interesting. And you know,
if you can't run the ball against a team like Michigan,
are you gonna be able to pass? This defensive line
is still very very very good for Michigan, and this

(33:18):
offensive line they mixed around three pieces. They brought in
Sexton to play left tackle. He's been hurt. They got
a true freshman playing right tackle right now, if everything clicks, oh,
you should smack Michigan. They're at home and all that.
But I'm just not sure that all of these issues
that we saw last year on the old line are
fixed for Oklahoma quite yet. So I'm gonna let this

(33:40):
sit and when it gets up to maybe six and
a half, if it can get over seven, I'm gonna
take Michigan. I'm also gonna take the under because I
think that, you know, Michigan is also starting a true
freshman quarterback against a very very good Oklahoma defensive hostyle
environment too, in a hostile environment exactly, so I don't

(34:01):
think Michigan's going to have a lot on offense. But
I'm not sure that Oklahoma is fixed just because you know,
they played Illinois State and beat the brakes off of
it right one, So this is a true test. This
is a very very good defensive line still. So yeah,
I'm going to lean towards the under in Michigan. I
just want to see how big this can get before

(34:22):
I put money on Michigan.

Speaker 2 (34:24):
Do you have any info on where the money's coming
in on on the total, because I think you if
you can wait on the over, it's on. It's on
the over.

Speaker 3 (34:32):
It's on the over right now, Well it was ten
minutes ago.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
I guarant there's going to be a boost for this game,
either on fandor or Draftking. So like there's a point
you could even tease this under up, right, Like you
could probably get it to like fifty to fifty one,
fifty two maybe, So yeah, I have a little bit
of patience there, but I love the Unders this week.

Speaker 3 (34:50):
Man.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
Hopefully we're not a week week A lot.

Speaker 3 (34:53):
Of defense in Week one too, Like we know that
the defenses are ahead of the offenses right now.

Speaker 1 (34:57):
So another enticing match in primetime is the Vanderbilt Commodores,
who are making the trip to Blacksburg, where they're one
and a half point underdogs to the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Speaker 2 (35:08):
The Built.

Speaker 1 (35:09):
Man. They're coming off their first winning season since twenty thirteen.

Speaker 2 (35:12):
What a ride it was, man.

Speaker 1 (35:13):
They're bringing back fourteen starters, quarterback too Pavia, running back
Cedric Alexander, top wide receiver Junior Shirrett, and then also
maybe the top tight end in the country. If you're
playing Dynasty, if you're playing DEVI, you probably know the
name Eli Stowers. He's great. He was excellent in Week
one as well. Plus they have eight players on the
defensive side. Coming back to they did finish nine to

(35:35):
four ats last season. Plus they won and covered against
Charleston Southern in Week one forty five to three. We've
talked about Virginia Tech already this season. Somewhat of a
disappointing year in twenty twenty four after pretty lofty expectations.
A lot of people had them as a dark horse
in the ACC last year. They fell short of those expectations.
I would say yet again in Week one they failed

(35:56):
to cover the nine and a half point line at
South Carolina on Sunday. Still like we can give credit
where credits due, man, Like Kyron Drones, they played it
pretty well. They ke it tight until that punt return
touchdown that kind of sprung this game open for him,
So Boggs, this line is continued to shrink since open.
So do you think it it's gonna get to a
pick him eventually?

Speaker 3 (36:16):
Oh God, I hope. So I want Votech in this game?

Speaker 2 (36:20):
You do so?

Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yes, of course I do. Two reasons. Number one, I
think Votech's a better team. Number Two, I get to
Trolltterrell it's a Wednesday. I love this so uh this
is one of my favorite parts. But I really like
what I saw from Votech on defense in that game
against South Carolina. Right, yeah, it was the one big
explosive play by Nick Harbor and the punt return. Really
other than that, they held Sellers in Company to three

(36:43):
hundred and twenty eight total yards, They had four sacks.
They dominated time of possession in that game thirty four
h nine to twenty five point fifty one. Now, you know,
one big play a punt return touchdown, So of course
maybe Votech's gonna have a little more, but that's a
pretty big difference. They forced eight penalties and they only
had four against South Carolina. So Vanderbilt is a much
better team than they have traditionally been, right, and they

(37:07):
definitely are in this game. This is a very, very
slight point spread. I don't think that this is going
to be a walk in the park for Virginia Tech.
Vandy can bow up and beat a lot of teams here.
But I like vaw Tech. But I the under too,
I think is in play here as well. It's forty
seven and a half. Money is trending towards the over

(37:30):
tickets are on the under though, lots of tickets on
the under, so probably one big bet towards the over. Maybe.
But Vandy played one of the slowest paces last year,
was so much on offense, and va Tech was very
middling in pace. Vandy was twelfth in rush percentage last year.
Vaughtech was thirty first in rush play percentage last year.

(37:51):
So lots of running, lots of bleeding the clock, lots
of defense in this game. So safest play to me,
and I'll already play it the under. But I also
like faw Tech in this game, and I like that
it's trending towards Vandy. Vandy is a good team, but
beat von Tech at home. I think vo Tech's pretty
strong on defense. This year, we'll see bet.

Speaker 2 (38:13):
The total Bogman. He's back baby on the unders. Give
it to him.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
Another matchup in this window that I just find absolutely fascinating, man,
is the eleventh ranked Arizona State sun Devils. They're gonna
be going up against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starksville.
And what a great run it was last year under
Kenny Dillingham, who had an eleven three record. Last year,
they won the Big twelve championship in their first year
in the conference, projected to get last, and they earned

(38:38):
themselves a spot in the CFP. They retain a power
for high seventeen starters Bogman, including arguably the best quarterback
and wide receiver duo in the country, was on full
displaying Week one. Sam Levitt Shordan Tyson man for offensive linemen,
ten defensive starters as well, and there were some highlight
reels in that game. Against Northern Arizona in Week one,

(39:01):
Sam Levitt took off and scrambled dash pass to everyone,
proved he is that dole threat guy, and then Jordan
Tyson with some amazing grabs as well. However, Arizona State
they still failed to cover.

Speaker 2 (39:12):
In that game.

Speaker 1 (39:12):
They won thirty eight to nineteen. Mississippi State, though, on
the other hand, this was a team dumpster fire, absolute
ball in the barrel in the SEC zero to eight
and SEC played two and ten overall.

Speaker 2 (39:23):
We talked about him last week.

Speaker 1 (39:24):
They lost to Toledo, got blown out in Starksville, but
they brought in a new slate of talent here to
join their eleven starters, including returning quarterback Blake Shapin, and
you know I'll say it right now. One of my
favorite players right now in college football running back Fluff Bothwell.
He's coming off a season where he had over eight

(39:45):
hundred yards thirteen touchdowns at South Alabama as a true freshman.
You don't see those numbers a lot, even at a
G five school for a true freshman there. And he's
joining incumbent starter Javon Booth, who had over seven hundred
and fifty yards of his own last season as well.
So a great back field kind of reminds me of
a light version of what you know, Ohio State's running
out what Penn State's running out right now as well.

(40:07):
The Bulldogs won and covered against Southern Miss in Week one.
They looked really good doing it. But with the fluidity
in the market here, Bogman, you can now get Arizona
State under a touchdown six and a half or Mississippi
State over a touchdown.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
Do you think that remains the case this week, that
there's options for betters.

Speaker 3 (40:23):
I think so. I do think the Mississippi State gets
a lot of disrespect because they're not very good for
the SEC. But as you mentioned, that roster is still
pretty good right like for the country, maybe not for
the SEC. But I really don't like this game, and
you know that because I didn't pick it. When I
sent you the games, I felt like we.

Speaker 1 (40:40):
Had to talk about it because it feels you're such
a good game though, I mean, you are a great matchup.

Speaker 3 (40:45):
I didn't want to pick it because I don't want
to pick it, you know what I mean. I don't
like this game. But this was a close game last
year in Tempe, so it really could go either way.
I do think that Arizona State is a different team
now obviously this year than last year, but way different
from what were early in the season last year to
going to the playoff, and you know, Sam Levitt taking

(41:07):
a step and Tyson taking a step and the year difference,
I think, you know, the roster strength is still close.
Is twenty three for ASU was thirty four for Mississippi State,
but ASU returns almost the entire secondary, their first in
defensive returning production from last year. You saw my boy
Anthony Cooper get that tip pick that seventh years seniors,

(41:29):
My buddy steps on. Good player, good defensive lineman, big
kid too. Levitt was a little sporadic in that first
game of the year, but the new weapon at running
back Tyson Brown. The Welsh text me and said, this
guy is Debo. He looks like Debo run and catch,
very very different than Cam Skap, but very good. And
they mixed in Kanye Judo and a couple other backs there.

(41:51):
Jordan Tyson looks like a first round pick already game
against nau So but two touchdowns. He looked great and healthy.
Mississippi State put the boots to Southern Missing week one,
which there are a couple of people picking some other
missed to upset them, so, you know, not me.

Speaker 2 (42:06):
But they don't know. They don't know Fluffy.

Speaker 3 (42:10):
Yeah, but there there's a possibility for them to rise
out of the cellar in the SEC. I was probably
one of those people not giving Mississippi State enough credit
coming into the year. All being said, I'll lean towards
ASU and the over, but I'm not gonna have a
bet in this game. I don't think this is gonna
be pretty close. And I can feel the Mississippi State

(42:30):
be coming from you. Seth. Is this are you gonna
break your cowboy out for Starkville this week? Man?

Speaker 1 (42:36):
I was so tempted to, like old Seth would just
immediately bet the favorite here under a touchdown if I
could get him right. I see the ranked team. I
know Arizona State, I know Levitt, I know Tyson. It's
big names out there. But my heart wants to tell me, hey, look, look,
maybe we do go to Mississippi State. I just laid
out the case for like. They have interesting pieces here.

(42:56):
The quarterback play is getting better, the running backs are
really good here as well, and that defense is still
an SEC defense and I don't think we can overlook that.

Speaker 2 (43:05):
So I'm not gonna have a play on this yet.

Speaker 1 (43:07):
I'm gonna wait this out, see maybe what happens here,
do a little more research, dig back into some of
these trends here, and maybe I'll come back with something
on our later week show with Terrell on the Picks
and Predictions. But I do like it, man, I'm definitely
gonna be watching this because I love both these guys
and so many good players interesting for them.

Speaker 2 (43:25):
So let's go ahead, though, Bogs.

Speaker 1 (43:27):
Let's round out the show with an acc matchup between
the Virginia Cavaliers and the North Carolina Wolfpack. Both are
coming off very pedestrian seasons. Virginia is missing a bowl
game for the first time in a long time. In
twenty twenty four, that definitely stung for them in NC State,
they just barely got into the bowl game's territory with
six wins, So Virginia they're returning nine starters. They did

(43:49):
move on from Anthony Calandra at quarterback. They're bringing in
North Texas signal caller Chandler Morris, who led the American
Conference last year in both passing yards and passing touchdowns
thirty one of them. The Calves they put the throttle
down on Coastal Carolina and the opener they won forty
eight to seven as just a seventeen point favor as well,
so definitely had had the books caught off guard a

(44:11):
little bit there. Four and fifty total yards for them
held Coastal three point eight yards per place. So it
wasn't just the offense, but their defense showed up too,
and it was another dog fight for the wolf Pack
at home in week one and against ECU. It always is,
right like, that's one of those games where if I
would have thought about it a little harder, nineteen and
a half points spread in that game feels wild. I
don't care if Holt Naylors isn't there anymore? For ECU?

(44:34):
Like NC State, they're returning just six starters. That does
include quarterbacks CJ. Bailey, who, in my opinion, is a
little bit overrated. NC State they won this matchup the
two times they've played it since twenty twenty. They've gone
one in one ats in that span. Three points feels
like way too many for Virginia for me here man,
maybe we could get a better number later in the week, though,

(44:55):
Do you feel that way too, or do you think
some action will come in on the calves.

Speaker 3 (45:00):
I think there's no way to know right now because
Chandler Morris hurt his shoulder in that game against Coastal
and he's gonna play. But what is his percentage? Chat
right like? Is he seventy five? Is he eighties? He ninety?

Speaker 2 (45:15):
I was thinking they said he could have came back
in if he really needed to.

Speaker 3 (45:18):
They probably did. What I heard was we are hopeful
for next week, very hopeful. So ringing between the lines
means he's gonna play to me right the shoulder injury.
Though NC State's defense is very good. You know what
the roster strength is on these teams, forty seven and
forty eight Wow, it is a true coin flip game.

(45:39):
So nc stayed at home minus three. You know what
this game is to me? This is this week's TCU
North Carolina. That's what it is. I am hard pass,
don't want to touch it, don't have a good pull
one way or the other. Roster strengths are so close,
the quarterback is questionable, probably going to play. Let's just

(46:00):
call them ninety percent. They're on the road though, right.
I think Virginia could be a better team, but maybe
NC State just wasn't so great Week one. So with
the teams being this close, this point spread being so close,
I mean I would rather get in on the total
and I'd probably take the under. That's what I would
do again. Yeah another under, Yeah, that's that would be

(46:23):
my lean. But this game one way or the underwell,
I mean, you know, early numbers are usually too high.

Speaker 1 (46:30):
So hey, no, I get it, man, I totally get it.
It's hard for me to take anything away from what
NC State did in that opener, just because that game's
always shippy against the Pirates, man, right, Like every single season,
it's always a barn burner down to the end of it.
So I don't really have much analysis on NC State.
But Virginia, dude, like Coastal was solid in the Sunbelt

(46:51):
last year, Like they weren't a great team, but they
were a Bowl qualifying team and they didn't even have
a chance in Week one, So I mean, it wasn't in,
it wasn't on that turf. But at the same time, man,
I really like what Virginia has been doing. I think
they've added some really good depth through the portal to
help them in that too deep.

Speaker 2 (47:09):
I think they have the talented offense too.

Speaker 1 (47:12):
I mean Exavier Brown last year as they're starting running
back and he had eight touches.

Speaker 2 (47:17):
He's just one of the three running backs they have.

Speaker 1 (47:20):
So I think if Morris is up for this, I
will be down potentially on the Virginia money line and
if not, just on the spread.

Speaker 2 (47:27):
So all right, well that's gonna do it for us.

Speaker 1 (47:29):
On this Early Picks episode of the Betting Pros College
Football Show still to come later this week and every
week right here on Betting Pros Are Picks and Prediction Show,
Trell Furman Junior will join us for that and then
Bog's Best Bets that comes out usually on Fridays, and
then our Parlay picks as well, which has been a
lot of fun.

Speaker 2 (47:46):
Not super successful yet, but we're gonna keep swinging because
that's what we do here.

Speaker 1 (47:49):
Let us go down in the comments below your favorite
early week two picks, and while you're here, make sure
you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel.
If you're new for Scott Bogman, Seth Wilcock, take care
of y'all.

Speaker 5 (48:02):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
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College Football Week 2 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 756)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 2 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 756)