College Football Week 3 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 767) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.
We're on to week three of the season, and in
this episode, we'll give your early picks and line movement
predictions for the biggest games on the slate. I'm your host,
Seth Wilcox Sporting the Camo today as we're back on
the hunt for some absolute gain or tickets, and I'm
joined by a man who sent me some very strongly

(00:22):
worded text about his feelings towards Mark Stoops over the weekend. Yes,
it's Scott big time Bogman Bogs. How are you following
a very busy weekend of football.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Yeah, I'm doing okay.

Speaker 3 (00:33):
You know.

Speaker 4 (00:34):
My record was bad, but my big my big bet hit,
my parlay hit, so I was righting the things I
put a lot of money on. My sprinkles were not
great this week. So look, we're not here to talk
about the past. I'm gonna Mark maguire this. We're here
to talk about the future and Week three. But yeah,
I do that field.

Speaker 2 (00:54):
Goal, oh man, I was seeing red.

Speaker 4 (00:58):
Because I had them by nine and a half was
my big number that I had.

Speaker 2 (01:03):
There and they were up by ten and the stupid
field goal. It is the right decision. My mark stoops,
but come on, man, just go for the touchdown. What
are y'all doing?

Speaker 1 (01:12):
Well? It also took my under out for that game,
so we are both both pretty upset ending Saturday night.
But we move on. We got a busy, busy program
for you all today. It looks like this. We will
react to week two, give you the biggest risers and
the followers for the betting landscape moving forward, and then
we'll break down the early picks and line movement predictions
for week three's top ten biggest games on the slate.

(01:34):
And as always, shout out to everyone who's back with us,
either on the Bank Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed.
We appreciate it. We see you the easiest freeway support us.
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(01:54):
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(02:15):
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claim your prize if you are that lucky winner. Now
let's go ahead and look back at what really looked

(02:38):
like a pretty, i want to say, mild slate of
games in week two, but turn out to be absolute
cinema on campuses across the country. Number six Oregan They
destroyed Oklahoma State after a little bit of smackless talked
earlier in the week sixty nine to three. Number eight
Clemson they survive Troy twenty seven to sixteen. Illinois they
run away late from Duke forty five to night teen.

(03:00):
The number sixteenth ranked Iowa State Cyclones. They've retained the
Syhawk trophy sixteen to thirteen against Iowa. Baylor takes down
Number seventeen SMU forty eight forty five. Mississippi State upsets
Number twelve Arizona State twenty four to twenty. South Florida
remains giant slayers. They beat number thirteen Florida eighteen sixteen

(03:21):
in the swamp. Number eighteen Oklahoma clears Number fifteen Michigan
twenty four to thirteen in prime time NC State. They
stay undefeated thirty five thirty one against UVA. Missouri wins
the Border War, forty two thirty one against Kansas Army
wins the Battle twenty four to twenty one against Kansas State.
Toledo remains in the G six playoff spot conversation beating

(03:44):
WKU forty five twenty one and Vandy. They dogwalk Virginia
Tech forty four to twenty. Boggs, I ask you this again,
who are your biggest betting risers and fallers following the
Week two action.

Speaker 4 (03:56):
Well, I mean for risers, Illinois looked so strong against
Duke Mississippi State. With the big win, they are no
longer jokes. Florida has to take a big loss. Good God,
we have a home game against a G six team
and you lose this. I mean there were seventeen and
a half point favorites and they lost straight up in

(04:18):
this game.

Speaker 2 (04:18):
That was patheticsville.

Speaker 4 (04:20):
You could say look ahead to LSU, which is part
of the reason why I was on the under in
that one. But this is results over process in that game.
Because I thought that this would be Florida gets up
and leaning's on, you know, their lead in.

Speaker 2 (04:34):
USF has to play catch up. That is not what happened.

Speaker 4 (04:37):
The USF was in this game the whole time and
came back and won, so they definitely moved down. Clemson
looked pathetic against Troy. I know there's a weather delay
in there, but they just clearly looking ahead. Not look
good there. Yeah, I think outside of that, Iowa State
is kind of what we expected. Vandy and Virginia Tech

(04:59):
was surprised. I thought VA Tech was going to be
in that game and they were not at all. Everything
else I think kind of was in the range. You know,
Oklahoma State getting absolutely smacked was a little more than
I thought, But I thought somewhere in that neighborhood was
gonna happen.

Speaker 2 (05:14):
Not quite that.

Speaker 4 (05:15):
I thought maybe like a forty to ten or forty
nine to ten, not quite that bad, but never hurts
to see Mike dundeelus, I don't mind it.

Speaker 1 (05:23):
No, absolutely, and I agree to you like Illinois to
me is one of the biggest risers here. Also in
the AP rankings they move into the top ten as well.
For I don't want to say, I don't know if
that's the first time in my lifetime, but the first
time at least is in maybe my adulthood that they
are a top ten ranked team. And I thought that
was a really big spot for them, considering that many

(05:45):
Diez kind of had a playbook on how to defend
Luke Altmeyer from his time at Penn State. They ran
away with that one late. So really really well done there, Oklahoma, Man,
this looks like a team that's just very sound. I
really liked what we saw from them. John mitch here
looked super poist as compared to kind of what we
expected from you know, the Michigan true freshman there, Bryce Underwood.

(06:05):
So I like that under Yeah, there you go. And
I wanted to delay the points with with Iowa State
or at least bet that money line and dude, like,
I honestly think Iowa State is a real threat to
win the Big Twelve right now, Like, I don't know
who else you would really prefer to win that conference?
Like do you do you have someone? I guess, but
who is Utah played compared to Iowa State?

Speaker 2 (06:27):
Now, I don't care Utah's gonna murder these guys.

Speaker 1 (06:31):
Maybe we'll see, we'll see. Man. I like it a lot,
and overall, I think BOGS was a really fun slate
And like the big surprise to me, which I guess
wasn't a surprise I wasn't willing to bet them, was
that Arizona State team just falling to Mississippi State. I
think it's less about what we saw from Arizona State.
And like Mississippi State man with fluffed devon booth in

(06:53):
the backfield, man like good, like they're legit.

Speaker 2 (06:57):
Oh, that crowd was in it. That place was loud.

Speaker 4 (07:01):
Those announcers had to yell for us to hear them
make those calls, so that environment was insane. Mississippi State
when they're good, are a lot of fun to watch.
So hopefully that's where we're getting blake shape and look good.
But we've heard Kenny Dillingham complain about his team a
little bit.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
Sometimes.

Speaker 4 (07:18):
What I thought going in was this is motivation, you know,
this is just let's get our guys up and all
that stuff. No, he was concerned, and rightfully so. This
was a rough game for his own state, and they
look sloppy in their first game against NAU so tough
spot on the road for them.

Speaker 1 (07:35):
Yeah. One in three for me and my picks man
number fourteen Michigan and number eighteen Oklahoma. The under for
that that was the only bet I hit Mark Soups
as we mentioned dead to me for that field goal. Yes, Also,
I would like to say we'll talk about them later
in the program. Don't need to spend a lot of
time on them. But Rich Froud, you're a fraud man,
Like you're an absolute fraud. The coaching decisions late in

(07:56):
that one, three turnovers off Parker Navarro couldn't score once
they go ahead and move to their backup quarterback.

Speaker 4 (08:02):
In the As sent me one of those texts like
what is West Virginia doing switching this quarterback? This guy
is worse than the first guy. And uh I wasn't
watching any of that game.

Speaker 2 (08:13):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, I.

Speaker 1 (08:14):
Mean either there's probably no reason two unless you're degenerate
mac better like myself. But it was one of those situations, man,
where like we finally get started to get some rhythm
back in that WVU offense late in that game, that
he had his best throw early in that one in
the fourth quarter they take him out, that they bring
this other guy in for two drives. He was he
was pitiful, So that cost me the game. There, how

(08:35):
are your picks overall? And anyone you would like to
uh shout out or you know, mark Off is dead
for the rest of the season.

Speaker 2 (08:43):
The biggest one here go ahead. I was three and
six on my picks on my show.

Speaker 4 (08:48):
So the ones I got, I feel like were results
over process and the ones I lost, a lot of
them were process of results, not all of them like
the ones I just flat out missed. I did not
expect Toledo to put that many point points up, and
I picked the under in that game because they played
such good defense against Kentucky. I thought they would score
like thirty five forty two and hold w BKU to

(09:09):
like maybe ten, and not what happened. They put up
a bunch of points Clemson team total. I had to
over on that one, just complete whiff. That one was
a whiff as well. Yukon in Syracuse Seth infuriates.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
Me win sprints afterwards.

Speaker 4 (09:26):
I had this game locked up. If Yukon doesn't tie
the game and go into overtime, I win the bet.
And they were winning straight up the whole game until
the last second when Syracuse got up. I got back
door on that one ole Miss Kentucky. You know, the
field goal screwed me on that one.

Speaker 2 (09:43):
Illinois and Duke that one was right.

Speaker 4 (09:44):
But SMU Baylor is another game I lost because Baylor
scored with thirty four seconds left, So you know, just
eking out losses piling up for me. But I got
my under on USF. I got Fresno State plus three
and a half to one straight up in that one.
But because of the the wackedness of the fourth courter,
I did not get the under in that game. I
thought I was going to get both those teams running

(10:05):
a lot. So yeah, I believe I was seven and
four on my props and I was three and six
on my okay, So we did okay money wise this
weekend because we had the most I double triple that
USF Florida bet. But you know we're doing okay in units,
but in picks, my record is going to look ugly
after this week.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
Hey, well, we'll keep at it here in week three. Man,
you know, there's no better time than the president to
get after it. So let's do that and the action
gets going on Friday night with the Colorado Buffalo's. They
are four and a half to five and a half
point road dogs to the Houston Cougars and the Buffs. Man,
they got back on track last week they beat Delaware
after losing just a heartbreaker to Georgia Tech and that opener. However,

(10:49):
they're still own to Ats one hundred and fifteenth in
total defense, ninety first in total offense, Houston two and
oh straight up two oh ats so far this season
they have played games again. Sau and Rice are not
the best opponents, but Texas am transfer quarterback Connor Wegman.
He'll be under center here and they do have a
Rice transfer Dean Connors in the backfield. Are really hot.

(11:11):
Name the CFF streets this offseason. They come in eightieth
in total offense but fourth in total defense, which is
pretty representative of what we've come to expect. Of Houston
in this Willy Fritz era bugs. The obvious play for
me feels like the under. But is that a trap?
And where do you see both the total and the
line spread going this week?

Speaker 2 (11:32):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (11:32):
Close game here, roster is insanely close. Roster's saying for
Colorado's thirty five. For Houston, it's forty, and Houston's at home, right,
So that's about us even on the field as you
can get. So I think there are too many questions
right now to take the over because of what you said.
Like Houston, Willie Fritz played defense, and we have a

(11:53):
musical chair situation going on at quarterback in Colorado. Right,
they rotated between three guys, and Houston's look good so far,
but they are untested. Steven f Austin and Rice are
not good opponents. So Wigman has looked good. The offense
has been okay, the defense has been leading them. My
lean here is towards Colorado because when we're looking at

(12:14):
what would break this game open is you know, you
look at the past block grade of the Cougars is
miserable and the best unit on defense for Colorado.

Speaker 2 (12:24):
Is that line. So my lean is towards Colorado. But
I think you're right.

Speaker 4 (12:29):
I think the under is the best play VP has
it at under now. This is trending way towards the
under right now, but I think there's just so many
Colorado betters that'll bet Colorado, so the numbers should get
better for Houston in this week. And I think most
people that are betting Colorado are probably taking overs as well,
so I would say sit on the number. I think

(12:50):
it's going to open up a little bit, even though
the money is going towards it right now. Just the
money is always on the under to start the week.
It's just how everything works. So I think we're gonna
get a better remember for Houston moving forward. We have
this closer to Houston by a field goal than by
four and a half, So if it ducks down under
three to two and a half, then I'd be interested

(13:10):
in Houston a little bit. But my lean is towards
Buffalo plus the point, So if you want them, take
that now. But I think, like you said, the under
is probably the best play here.

Speaker 1 (13:19):
Okay, let's keep it moving, And before we do, I
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Speaker 5 (14:18):
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Speaker 1 (14:44):
Boggs, can you believe it? A presenting sponsor before we
got canceled? I mean, I still can't do that.

Speaker 2 (14:51):
Hey, we're doing something right, so we'll take it.

Speaker 1 (14:54):
Yeah. Absolutely, we appreciate hard rock. Bet we appreciate all
the listeners, all the viewers helped us get to this point.
Very very excited, and let's keep it moving here. In
the noonslate, it's the Wisconsin Badgers on the road against
the nineteenth ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. A lot of experts
coming into this season, they had Wisconsin finishing towards the
end of the Big Ten with one of the most
difficult schedules in the entire Country, but they've taken care

(15:17):
of business so far, winning and covering against Miami, Ohio
and Middle Tennessee. Maryland. Transferred quarterback Billy Edwards Junior, though
he was out in Week two after getting banged up
in Week one. No status update as of now. Tune
back into Wednesday's show and we'll see what we can
get there for Billy's status moving forward. Alabama responded following

(15:38):
that very bad Week one upset to FSU. They won
seventy three to zero over Louisiana Monroe last week. I
would like to mention though, two wide receiver Ryan Williams,
he sat out that game with a concussion, hoping to
see him back on the field, Also hoping to see
him back on the outside. He doesn't need to be
running in the slot getting hospital balls all day long.
Bama won this game last year forty two to ten

(16:00):
as an eight point favorite on the road, Bogs, Will
it be a similar result this go around as a
twenty and a half point favorite? And does this number
get any longer you think as the week progresses.

Speaker 4 (16:10):
I wouldn't be surprised, right, We have a recent history
of this game. We just saw Alabama dominate Wisconsin likely
to be on their backup quarterback here, so I do
think it probably opens up towards Bama. But let's ignore
that and let's take the Alabama team total. I think
that's what we want to do here. Thirty four and
a half is getting you plus money right now, So

(16:35):
I think that's the way I would want to go,
because the system says to take Wisconsin in this game,
which I do not feel comfortable with at all, specifically
after watching last year. And I think the one thing
that systems can't take into account immediately is the fact
that Alabama is gonna be putting up points to try
to get a rhythm in their offense and to dominate

(16:58):
some of these games to look better in the polls
and stuff moving forward. So I think this is a
team that's gonna want to keep piling up points. And
that's why I think the safest thing here is the
team total, because this is a lopsided roster for Wisconsin
right now. There's seventieth on offense, which is a little
below average in the nation, and they're thirtieth on defense.

(17:20):
This is a team that has a strong, strong defense,
So I would rather go with the over in this
game because I think Bama does the heavy lifting or
just take their team total. But I think it does
go towards Bama. But I also think the total is
going to open up.

Speaker 2 (17:34):
A little bit.

Speaker 1 (17:35):
Yeah, after costing me so much money, I just I
can't do it. I can't get back invested with this
game at all. Like I'm gonna sit on the sidelines.
I'm gonna see what I can learn from Alabama. It
seems like, you know, kind of all the negative naysayers
on the internet kind of questioning some things going on
the team hotel, the conditioning, that the effort of the
team really sparks something under them for them to go.

Speaker 4 (17:56):
With that lady that said if she won the lottery,
she was gonna buy out Kaylen DeVore everybody at Bama.

Speaker 1 (18:03):
That's what I'm talking about. So definitely lit a fuse.
I just don't know if it keeps going for two
weeks in a row. But I would feel good with,
you know, laying Bama ten eleven points by twenty and
a half. No way, I can't do that, so but
the team total might be the way to go. So
I like that. We also have an acc banger in
the noonslate with the twelfth rank Clemson Tigers on the

(18:24):
road in Bobby Dodd Stadium against the undefeated Georgia Tech Yellowjackets.
It's been a very disastrous start to Clemson's campaign. They
lost to LSU seventeen to ten in that opener, and
then they just narrowly escape Troy in their last game.
As well as thirty three and a half point favorites.
Their number one wide receiver Antonio Williams, he hasn't played
since early in that Week one matchup. Kid Klubnick has

(18:46):
since struggled as well. He has under a sixty percent
completion rate, two touchdowns, two I INT's for a guy
who's right up there with the top the Heisman favorites
coming into the season. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, they've covered in
two straight. They won by a TD in Boulder in
that opening weekend game and then also they beat Gardner
Web fifty nine to twelve at home last week. However,

(19:06):
they were without quarterback Haines King, who was dressed but
did not play with an injury. Pretty mixed reporting on
that injury is Some have called it like a core
abdomen issue, Others have called it a shoulder issue. All
I know is that he got beat up pretty good
in that game. Was hobbling a little bit at the
end of the Colorado outings, so I could see maybe
something being wrong, but at least he was suited up.

(19:27):
He might play in this one. He's a tough kid,
so I don't think he would want to miss this one.
The Tigers have won nine straight against the Yellow Jackets
and they come in as three and a half point
to four and a half point favorites. Do you expect
this line to remain right around over a field goal? Bogs?

Speaker 4 (19:44):
Yeah, I think it's gonna stay over a field goal,
and I think that's probably where it should go. And
I think you're gonna get smart money coming in on
Georgia Tech from what they look like if we get
a positive note on Haines King, right, sure, yep.

Speaker 2 (19:58):
If we're reading.

Speaker 4 (19:59):
Between the lines, I think this is. Look, he was
really tired against Colorado. We didn't need him against Gardner Web,
so we didn't play him. So we'll put him out
against Clemson because that is where we need him. I
think that is you know, if you're reading between the lines,
that would be my assumption, right, But I want.

Speaker 2 (20:17):
More of an update.

Speaker 4 (20:17):
I want an update on Antonio Williams as well, So
I don't think we can bet this game until we
get updates on these injuries and know for certain where
these guys are fifty to fifty Are they out? Are
they definitely going to play? Are they seventy five percent
to play? Like, just give me something more than what
we have right now. I would say I think the

(20:37):
line probably moves towards Clemson just because there's going to
be more Clemson people betting this game. But I'm not
really sure which way it's gonna go because I don't
know what these injury reports are gonna do. So I'm
gonna stay away until we get updates. But right now,
with if both those guys are banged up and playing
at less than fifty percent, I think I would lean

(20:58):
under we saw clue Nick has been struggling so far
this season to get things right, doesn't mean he can't
get it right here, and he's still an NFL where
they prospect and they have a lot of NFL talent
on that offense, right, so they could do the heavy
lifting towards the total here. But I just think with
them stumbling out of the gate and not looking good.
This is a good matchup. I think Georgia Tech is

(21:18):
a stronger team than I gave them credit for coming
in for sure, So I'm gonna lean the under in
this one right now. I think that's probably where the
total will move is probably more towards the uender because
these guys are banged up. But I don't really want
to mess with this one until we get some entry updates.

Speaker 1 (21:34):
Yeah, I'd like to see a little bit of a
status update on Haines King, I think before I'm invested
as well. I actually think though there could be some
value depending on what it is right now. I haven't
looked at it, but maybe a Georgia Tech team over Like,
I really like this offense man like Haynes King one
hundred and fifty six yards on the ground in that opener.
The dude's a bulldozer. And at the same time, like

(21:54):
we've all talked about Jamal Haynes being that RB one
in the backfield for this team for years, they also
have this new running back Malchi Hoseley who's been excellent
as well, kind of helping them open up things a
little bit, So I think that would be exciting. I
like Eric Rivers. The transfer coming in from FIU as well,
so some really good stuff happening here. Would like to

(22:15):
see like Malik Rutherford back out there too. He hasn't
played since early in Week one, So if we can
get some good status updates on the Georgia Tech offensive pieces,
I think I'm back in on the Yellow Jackets once again.
Let's jump into the three point thirty slate here though, Bogs,
where it's an SEC rivalry game with the number six
Georgia Bulldogs on the road in Knoxville as a three
and a half point favorite against the number fifteen Tennessee Volunteers.

(22:38):
Georgia they have wins over Marshall and Austin p to
start the season, but oh and two ats oh and
two to the over as well. This of course is
under the direction of junior quarterback Gunner Stockton, who has
been responsible for over five hundred yards of combined offense
four touchdowns this season. Tennessee meanwhile, they have looked awesome
this season. They've covered in games both against Syracuse and

(23:00):
East Tennessee State to start the season. This is despite
pretty much a new offensive skills set players coming in.
We got that includes Joey agalor the quarterback transfer coming
from app State being under center. Tennessee the ranked second
in total offense, Georgia is eighth in total defense. So
what wins out here, Bobman, elite offense to start out
the year or elite defense from the Bulldogs? And do

(23:21):
you think this line moves at all?

Speaker 4 (23:23):
I don't know which way the line would move. Tennessee
being at home has a tough place to play. This
is a fun rivalry game here. But for me, I
think I think the under is to play here, right,
because we've seen Georgia put up some yards, but they
haven't got twenty eight points against Austin PA. This is
not good enough, Etsu.

Speaker 1 (23:45):
But were they throttling down on purpose? Do you think
maybe because of this game?

Speaker 4 (23:48):
I don't care you put it more than twenty eight
points on you know it's good point and Marshall like
they have not been tested.

Speaker 1 (23:56):
At all, and I stop point counts.

Speaker 4 (23:58):
Yeah, really don't like Gunner Stockton at this point. Right,
just doesn't seem like your traditional Georgia quarterback. Maybe I'm wrong,
Maybe I'm getting this wrong. And look, George is just
gonna roll over Tennessee because I saw a lot of
cracks in Tennessee against Syracuse.

Speaker 2 (24:15):
They did win that game. They won that game going away.

Speaker 4 (24:18):
There are a couple drives for Syracuse was running down
their throat, which I'd never thought a team like Syracuse
with all of that returning production gone, is you know,
basically a new slate for them on offense to be
able to run on Tennessee even in Week one. I
thought that was curious. So to me, I think if
you want to side on this, take the money line.
That's what I would do. I wouldn't mess too much

(24:40):
with this spread because if you think Tennessee can win
at home, take them on the money line and get
that juice. And if you like Georgia, I just am
not trusting Gunner Stockton. So I think that's a money
line play as well. But I think the best play
is going to be the under here because I think
with the problems of Stockton, I think George is gonna
run the ball, which is gonna bleed the clock, and

(25:01):
I think their defense is good enough to stop Joey Aguilar.
So to me, I think this game is an underplay.
I think we will see it move a little lower
as well, But I'm not one hundred percent sure where
the total is gonna go, because right now, early money
is always on the under. Actually, I can take a
look live and tell you if this has changed.

Speaker 2 (25:25):
Now it's still.

Speaker 4 (25:28):
I mean the cash has coming a little bit more
on the over, but lots of tickets on the ender
right now.

Speaker 1 (25:35):
Yeah, And to your point, like taking the money line too,
Like Georgia has won eight in a row in this rivalry,
but only three and two ats since twenty twenty, So
I don't feel comfortable laying the points. If I want
the dogs, I'm gonna drink the juice. And you know,
I think it's minus one seventy five is the best
money line you're gonna find. Or if I'm taking Tennessee,
I would like that plus money value there too. So

(25:55):
I think you got to pick a side in this
one if you're gonna opt for you know, not going
with the total. But for me, it's to stay away
here early in the week, let's move to the Backyard Brawl, though,
which is also on tap for three point thirty with
the two and zero Pitt Panthers on the Road in Morgantown,
West Virginia as six and a half point favorites. Against
the Mountaineers. Pitt has won and covered at home in

(26:16):
their first two games against Dukane and Central Michigan. Shout
Central Michigan, though they hung really tough in that first
half of that game. Sophomore quarterback Eli Holstein, he leads
the acc in passing touchdowns with eight. He also leads
them in passing efficiency and passing yards per attempt. Senior
running back Desmond Reid, he comes off a season with
over fifteen hundred combined yards and know a lot of

(26:37):
people in Debbie circles are excited about him. And they
also have a couple of really nice wide receivers and
Kenny Johnson and Rafael Williams WVU. They're one and one
after dropping that game to Ohio last week. They failed
to score a single point off all three of Parker
Navarro's turnovers, and they were also out gained by a
MAAC team in Ohio four hundred and twenty nine to
two hundred fifty yards. And I think more importantly, Boggs,

(27:00):
they lost their stud running back Shahem White early in
that game and their top two wide receivers work harded
off the field. Pit is two and one against West
Virginia since this rivalry was renewed back in twenty twenty. However,
they did lose as favorites in the one game that
was played in Morgantown in twenty twenty three. So this
line has already moved about a point and a half
since this morning, so it is moving quickly. Does it

(27:22):
continue to do so in the Panthers favorite Bogman?

Speaker 4 (27:26):
Probably because of the way that WVU looked last week.
You and many other betters were cursing them out, and
you should have been.

Speaker 2 (27:35):
They look miserable. Right.

Speaker 4 (27:37):
There is no way I am touching this game with
my money.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
This is too weird of a game.

Speaker 4 (27:44):
West Virginia is too weird of a place. This is
rife for pitt to beat WVU down at home. I'm
not gonna say that they're gonna do it, no way.
I love Eli Holstein. I think he has been outstanding.
He's wont me some money. I mean my week in
CFF this week as well, So I'm a big Eli

(28:04):
Holstein fan.

Speaker 2 (28:06):
I ain't touching this game with my money or your money.

Speaker 4 (28:08):
If you gave me money to bet, it wouldn't be
on this game. So I'm not touching it. I'm gonna
stay all the way away from this one.

Speaker 1 (28:14):
Yeah, I think I'm with you, man, I just this
is one of those rivalries that is so tight every
single year. Like again, gun to the head. I would
pick Pit, right like. I think it's based on what
we saw. I think we would all pick Pit. But
Morgantown they burn couches there. Man, they don't mess around
out there. It's a rowdy place to play and it
gets no rout.

Speaker 2 (28:32):
Hard travel too.

Speaker 4 (28:33):
You have to take the bus in, right, like you
have to take the bus in. It's harder to travel.
It's annoying that place gets loud.

Speaker 1 (28:40):
Is it hard to travel down the road though? You
know what I mean.

Speaker 4 (28:43):
I heard it's all through the mountains and stuff. Though,
isn't it like windy and weird?

Speaker 1 (28:47):
I mean it is a little bit, but you pretty
much just jump on, like I think. I think it's
seventy nine that continues into whatever West Virginia is there.
So it's like, I don't think it's bad travel, but
I don't know, it's it's weird travel.

Speaker 4 (28:59):
I know that most teams have to fly into Pittsburgh
to then drive there, right right, yeah, yeah, but pitt
is you know you're already there, so it is forty
five minutes away. But it's just it is. It's a
weird travel game, it's a weird rivalry game, strange bounces.
Like you said, my leen is pit, my leen is
the under because we've seen absolutely nothing wvng's offense as well,

(29:20):
So that's my lean. But I've seen this game get
weird too many times to put money on it.

Speaker 1 (29:25):
I think if White and those receivers that were carded
off are both not playing in this one, I think
I would either take the under fifty seven and a
half points you can get minus one ten right now,
or I would just honestly consider betting the West Virginia
team under because, like I do, trust that Pitt will
put up some points here. They put up like thirty,
you know, high twenties and a lot of these, you know,

(29:46):
renewed rivalry games. But I think the under is probably
where I leaned that might make the card. We'll touch
on that later in the week though, when we get
some updates there on the injury front, the Giant slaying
number eighteen South Florida Bowls. They're back on the road
though as sick teen and a half to seventeen and
a half point dogs to the number five Miami Hurricanes
with Byram Brown back at quarterback. Man, the Bulls have

(30:07):
been excellent. They've knocked off both the Boise State Broncos
and Florida as double digit underdogs Miami. They have begun
the Carson Beck era with wins against Notre Dame and
Bethune Cookman, and he's made this new look offense led
by LSU transfer wide receiver CJ. Daniels and true freshman
Malachi Tony, look really really good still though, I think

(30:30):
it's been like Ruben Bain in this entire defensive front
that really impressed me in that first opening game last year.
Miami did win this game fifty to fifteen as eighteen
point favorites. With that said, and the line looks very
similar right now. Do we see it move much again? Bogman?

Speaker 4 (30:47):
I think rain likely in this game as well, at least. Okay,
you know, God, it's so funny coming from Arizona, where
the forecast is it's going to be hot, yeah, and
it's never gonna rain, like okay, well the forecasters is
the forecast that's it moving to Texas. The forecasters are
so unbelievably wrong that it just amazes me that we

(31:09):
even have you know, stuff for a week out. So
as of now, rain is likely in this game to
add just another weird element. But I think this is
where we can we can jump off the USF train,
and it's not completely jumping off, but it's no disrespect
for what they've accomplished. I think being Florida was great,
and I think but I think Florida and Miami are

(31:31):
different this year. Right Lagway is a young guy with
not a lot of starts under his belt. Beck is
a older statesman here at the collegiate level, and you know,
he proved himself against Notre Dame. He looked good there,
and as you mentioned that defenses look good. You know,
christ of Ball can make mistakes as well. So yeah,
well we'll see what happens here. But Miami did a

(31:54):
good job of keeping car in the pocket and forcing
him to pass. Brown is a completely different problem right
there for the defense. But I think this is could
there be a bigger letdown spot? You know, like you're
coming off these two huge upsets and now you're going
to Miami again, Like if USF wins, they're going to

(32:16):
be a top ten team, and why.

Speaker 2 (32:18):
Would you why would you say? What could you say
against them?

Speaker 4 (32:22):
The score might be closer than the spread. So I'll
lean USF on this game. But I think my favorite
bet in this game is, again, let's go with the
team total. Let's have Miami do the heavy lifting here.
Thirty five and a half, like you're getting plus money
or right there? I think I think thirty four and
a half was minus money, thirty five and a half

(32:43):
was plus money. So that's five touchdowns. That's a lot
to put up in a good game here. But as
you mentioned, this game was fifty to fifteen last year,
so that and Byron Brown played in it. So I
think that this is a mismatch. But I don't think
Miami is going to give the mistakes that Florida did.

Speaker 1 (33:02):
I would think not. But there's no way I'm trusting
Carson Beck against a red hot USF team laying sixteen
and a half. I just can't do it. Man.

Speaker 4 (33:11):
So yeah, I said I'd lean USF. Yeah yeah, but
but I team total instead, That's what I would do.

Speaker 1 (33:16):
Yeah, I think that's a better way to opt to.
I hate like, I don't want to be super wishy
Washy this week. But honestly, a lot of these games
we're talking about today, I don't have much action down on.
I'll have a play for you later in the episode.

Speaker 4 (33:29):
But conference play gets harder. There's a lot of conference
games here.

Speaker 1 (33:32):
So yeah, and of course Wilver Parlay's episode later this week,
Box will have his best bet and then put on
my full betting card out on social media later this
week too, so you can get some of those other
games we're not talking about. And I wanted to remind
everyone real quickly as well that you can actually track
your bets, stay accountable, and level up your game by
downloading the Betting Pros app. With Sportsbook Sync, you can

(33:52):
automatically track your bets across all major books in just
one spot. Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and
bet type, including game picks, props and yes parlays. Create
custom betting systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities.
New users, you can get yourself six months for free
of Betting Pros Premium with your first deposit and a

(34:14):
wager at any of our partner sportsbooks. Learn more at
Bettingpros dot com Slash Premium. The Florida Gators hope to
get back on track after dropping the game late against
South Florida last week when they travel to face the
number three LSU Tigers in Death Valley. A one time
Heisman hopeful DJ Lagway looked pretty pedestrian last week, man

(34:35):
completing just twenty three of thirty three passes for two
hundred and twenty two yards, one touchdown and an interception.
LSU got the big win on the road in Week
one against Clemson seventeen to ten, but they did throttle
down last week against Louisiana Tech, failing to cover but
winning twenty three to seven. The usual suspects of Garrett Nuspayer,
Aaron Anderson K. Durham. They've been really up to stuff

(34:56):
so far. But I gotta give a shout out to
the big boys in the trenches man both sides of
the ball, who bully clems in Brian Kelly. He is
two and one ats against the Gators in his tenure
in Baton Rouge. However, the Gators have stunned them last
year twenty seven to sixteen in the Swamp. That and
the fact that this line has already moved towards the Tigers.

(35:16):
It just tells me that this is a place maybe
I don't want to get invested again, but I think
it's going to continue to go in that direction. What
do you think, Bogs with the movement?

Speaker 4 (35:25):
I mean, this feels like the biggest trap game of
the year so far, doesn't it? Like Florida looks pathetic
they're going on the road, But it was a clear
look ahead to this game, right, Like that is why
they lost the USF. But these random losses have been
a staple of Billy Napier's tenure here, and I do

(35:45):
wonder like the players listen and they know what's going on.
They're speaking about Napier being gone as if he's already gone.
So I think that loss to USF at home last
week was so bad that it's one that cool would
bleed into this week. So my lean is going to
be towards LSU.

Speaker 2 (36:06):
Uh.

Speaker 4 (36:06):
My game at LSU is rough as well, So uh,
I think we may be overthinking this. Look the VP
system says it should be closer than this spread at
nine and a half. I'm hoping that nine and a
half is too many points and we can get this
to come back down to if we can get it
at six and a half.

Speaker 1 (36:25):
Man that, oh yeah, I would lay six and a half.
I would lay six and a half. But I don't
think you're getting juice to get there.

Speaker 4 (36:31):
Yeah, I think I think if you want LS, you're
gonna you're gonna have to take them by this nine
and a half or at least eight and a half maybe,
So I don't think it's gonna move that much. So
I think probably a stay away, but about a.

Speaker 1 (36:45):
Gas team total under maybe because of how good LSU's
front looked.

Speaker 4 (36:49):
You know what, great that that's a really good Uh,
that's a really good point.

Speaker 2 (36:53):
And Lagway probably good for.

Speaker 4 (36:55):
A couple of turnovers here as well in a road
game at night. So yeah, I think maybe under team
total for Florida is good. But yeah, nine and a
half feels like too many points. It feels very trappy.

Speaker 1 (37:07):
Lagway's not running at all this year, and like I know,
he's not like an extremely ed up, extremely mobile quarterback,
but he's still more mobile than what he's been this season.
I think it is the injuries, man, I really do,
like we barely saw he definitely.

Speaker 2 (37:19):
Play less than one hundred percent.

Speaker 1 (37:21):
Yeah, so I think that team total that might be
something that makes the card. This is why we do this, man,
we talked these out.

Speaker 4 (37:28):
I see so many DJ Lagway commercials living in Montgomery,
Texas because you really like the next town over.

Speaker 2 (37:35):
Whatever.

Speaker 4 (37:35):
His nil is has got all kinds of commercials in
this area. So he people love him here and he's
a great kid. Very excited for him. But I think
he's playing at less than one hundred percent right now.
So hard to got money on a guy that's less
than one hundred.

Speaker 1 (37:49):
Yeah, and still breaking in some new weapons, right Like
Jane Bow's a great running back out of the backfield,
but you know they're still breaking in these new wide
receivers as well. So I think it's gonna take time,
and I think it's a big spot for maybe two
big here. In week number three, Let's move to the
Battle of oh in Columbus Saturday night at seven pm
Eastern time. Yes, it is actually a prime time matchup

(38:11):
for the Buckeys. You're welcome, Ohio State fans. However, it
does come by way of a game that has a
thirty two and a half point spread against the Ohio Bobcats.
Brian Smith Bobs, they're two to zero ats this season.
I should have known they covered and won outright against
WVU last week. They lost to Rutgers by three in
week one, the defending national chance. Meanwhile, they're once again

(38:34):
the top ranked team in the nation after knocking off
boggs Is, Texas Longhorns and arch Manning in Week one
and then blowing out Grambling State seventy to zero in
week two. Scott, is this another play here with such
a big line and a really solid MAC team in
Ohio that we just have to kind of avoid this spread?
You think, like Parker Navarro's no pushover despite three turnovers

(38:56):
last week against the Mountaineers.

Speaker 4 (38:58):
Avoid the spread. I think take the over in this one.
That's like my initial gut is, Okay, Ohio They're not
gonna win this game. They're probably not gonna make it competitive.
Like Ohio State's best team in the country. I don't
think there's really a doubt about that right now. But
Ohio did just beat West Virginia. They put a four
hundred yards against them and Rutgers. It's two P four
teams that they played so far. Yeah, yeah, obviously way

(39:20):
worse than Ohio State, right, but Ohio State can do
the heavy lifting here. This is a good game to
get Julian Sand's confidence going as well against them back defense.
So I think that, yeah, the over is the play
that I would go with here. Currently it's like that
for lots of the money is on the under. Let
me see if the money has poured in towards the

(39:43):
over as of this morning, because no, it has not.
It is still way on the under here, So maybe
even sit on it and wait for this to get
lower right now, because I mean this is showing all
the money on the under, so really, yeah, it's got
to be ninety nine percent. It can't be a hundred,
but yeah, that's got to be most of the money

(40:04):
on the under right now. So uh yeah, I'd say
wait on it, wait for it to open up, get
up to fifty five, fifty six something like that, and
then hammer that under or over.

Speaker 2 (40:13):
I'm Scott, I'm sorry, it's going down. I said it
the opposite way. My bad. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (40:17):
I can't bet player props here in Pennsylvania and college football,
but is there, like, are there lines out there for interceptions?
Because I would maybe looking at Parker Navarrow throwing at
least one or two honestly, and.

Speaker 2 (40:28):
Like it's always over.

Speaker 4 (40:30):
It's always over unders a half, Like it's never like
one and a half or anything, right, that UD and
all that stuff, so you have to put it with
something else so and a lot of the times in
those mismatches they just won't offer it.

Speaker 1 (40:45):
So yeah, it makes sense I either way, though, I
think the over could set up nicely here. If there
are some short fields for Ohio State, they still want
to continue to feed their guys, right, Like Jeremiah Smith
had a really nice Week two slow Week one, they
got j Donaldson James Peoples in the backfield that they
want to keep going. So I think I do like
that over as well. That might make the card for me.

(41:06):
Two more games for everyone here. First, we've got SEC
grudge match in the primetime slate, the Vandervilt Commodores. They're
on the road in Colombia as five and a half
point dogs against the eleventh ranked South Carolina game Cocks
Vandy two and oh ats and to the over this
season with wins over Charleston Southern and Virginia Tech. South Carolina. Meanwhile,
they're led by a quarterback Lenora Sellers edged Dylan Stewart,

(41:30):
and they also played vaw Tech. But they really relied
on big plays to beat them, they weren't as dominating
as Vandy. They also then failed to cover as a
forty three and a half point favorite against South Carolina
State last week. Since twenty twenty, South Carolina five and
zero against Fandy, but they are also four and one
ats at that time as well, winning by an average

(41:50):
of twenty one point six points. Still, this line has
dropped three points since opening, Bogman, Do we think that
this continues to shrink and is that maybe an opportunity
to jump on with Lenora Sellers and the game Cocks.

Speaker 4 (42:01):
Yeah, we already have this as a what is it?
Is it still five and a half?

Speaker 1 (42:05):
Five and a half? Yep?

Speaker 2 (42:06):
Yeah, okay, so we have this as sc by a
little more than a touchdown.

Speaker 1 (42:10):
So, oh okay, this one.

Speaker 4 (42:12):
We're leaning more towards South Carolina for sure, But I
ain't Vandy is look good. The thing that turns this
to me, and this is just a lean, I haven't
bet any money on this, but the thing that moves
this towards South Carolina to me is that South Carolina
at night is a wild environment. It is a tough

(42:33):
place to go play a lot Like you know, we
just saw Misssippi State and Arizona State, right, that was
a tough one to play, and I think you're going
to see some of the same here. I'm not sure
that they will be able to stop South Carolina. That's
really my thing here. I do think they'll be able
to score with them. Pavios look good and looking at

(42:53):
roster strength. This is a top twenty offense for Vandy
in the nation. So I was disrespecting them a little
bit too much last week. I thought you always did
tech would handle them, and yeah, so I'm not gonna
get got by Terrell this week and his love of Papa.

Speaker 2 (43:10):
So let's just go with the over.

Speaker 4 (43:13):
Right, Like South Carolina's offense, I think is gonna be
able to put up points against Sandy, but Vandy has
not back down. They've been scoring points. They've been putting
them up on the board, and this offense looks great.
So let's just hit the over here and BP he's
leaning towards the over in this one as well, so
it's leaning towards South Carolina and the over. Let's just
not even mess with that line. Let's just take another

(43:34):
total here and go with the over.

Speaker 1 (43:35):
I wouldn't mind like maybe a skinny parlay with the
South Carolina money line. Maybe put in with another heavy
money line, or you know, if it's an NFL prop
or a NASCAR prop, whatever you're doing.

Speaker 2 (43:46):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (43:47):
I'm probably the only one who mixes like college football
props with the NASCAR. Yeah, yeah, I.

Speaker 4 (43:52):
Don't think you're the only one. But there's uh, I
don't know that there's a lot of people here doing that.

Speaker 1 (43:57):
It's a small community. It's a small community for sure.
Let us go down the comments below if you're doing
any money line parlays with some.

Speaker 2 (44:03):
NASCAR cross on college football, Yeah, I'm.

Speaker 1 (44:06):
Sure there's yeah SEC bias down there for sure.

Speaker 2 (44:10):
Boggs.

Speaker 1 (44:10):
We do have one more game here though, and it
is a Top twenty five matchup in South Bend where
the number sixteen Texas A and m Aggies. They are
six and a half to seven and a half point
dogs against the eighth rank fighting Irish Mike Elko's men.
They're owing to ats this season. They failed to cover
against both UTSA and Utah State to open up the season.

(44:30):
Notre Dame they had to buy this past week, but
they did lose in South Beach in that opener to Miami.
I will say though freshman quarterback CJ. Carr, he kept
them in that game while their run game was largely
ineffective against Rubyen Bainn and company. Notre Dame, they got
the best of the Aggies in College Station last year,
twenty three to ten as one and a half point dogs. Boggs.

(44:51):
What are your thoughts on the Irish by under a
touchdown and will we be able to get this number
all week you think? Or is this now the time
we have to jump on Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman's
train if we want them. No.

Speaker 4 (45:02):
I think the Aggies are pretty popular, so I think
that this game will hover right around here. I think
it's going to stay at six, six and a half,
five and a half. I think it'll dance in that neighborhood.
I don't think you can push it over a touchdown.
I think that's a suckers bat. So I'm not gonna
I don't think this moves too much. And I think
the big question in this game is how serious are

(45:23):
the Aggie's issues stopping the run?

Speaker 2 (45:25):
Right?

Speaker 4 (45:25):
Because UTSA ran on them Utah State. They did beat
Utah State in the dirt, but This is also revenge
game narrative for the Aggies who got beat at home
in Week one last year started the Mike Elco era
all that stuff.

Speaker 2 (45:38):
You hated to see it. It was so terrible, right,
No one like that.

Speaker 4 (45:43):
I definitely wasn't doing cartwheels after that game. But we
also have desperation from Notre Dame here as well, because
currently they're not slated to play another ranked team. Now,
USC could easily be ranked by the time they play USC.
There's a couple other teams in there that could be ranked,
but right now as it stands ranked teams I believe
on the schedule unless I looked at it wrong. So

(46:04):
I think the desperation and motivation is on the Notre
Dame side. They need to win this game because we've
seen teams go ten and two, not play anybody and
not make the playoffs. So I think that in this game,
I like the under the most because I think Notre
Dame is going to take advantage of these issues that

(46:26):
Texas A and M has had in stopping the run.
That a lot a lot of their defensive line to
the NFL this season. I think three quarters of it
is gone and they've had issues stopping the run. I
think in Notre Dame still has Love and Price, so
I think they're going to run the ball a lot
in this game. I think the clock is going to bleed.
Notre Dame top twenty in defensive returning production as well.

(46:47):
I think they're going to make things hard for Marcel Reid.
So yeah, I think the under is the play here.
I think Notre Dame is safe. But as you know, Seth,
I consistently get Notre Dame wrong. So I'll let you
bet the game. I'll just take the total.

Speaker 1 (47:03):
Hey, that's all right, man, And like I'll be honest
with you, I lost quite a few units in a week.
One that was my big bet was betting Notre Dame
against Miami. But looking back last season in that run
in the CFP, like, what did the Notre Dame fighting
Irish do better than anyone? Well, they ran the ball
right like Jeremiah Love Jenarian Price. They're two of the
best running backs in the country, especially when you put

(47:25):
them in the same backfield with A and M giving
up over two hundred rushing yards to UTSA. I think
give Notre Dame a week to go back to practice
fix their issues. In the run game. I think they're
gonna lean on them, so give me the Irish. Anything
under a touchdown, I'm gonna lay it pretty heavily, multiple
units down on that one. Once again. I'm gonna try
to win back some of my stake from early in
the season. Love it or hate it, but that's what

(47:45):
I got for this one.

Speaker 4 (47:46):
Boggs, Yeah, yeah, I don't hate it. I would love
to see Notre Dame win going away here. Thirty five
to three would be something like that.

Speaker 1 (47:57):
All right, Well, that's gonna do it for us on
this Early Picks apisode of the Betting Pros College Football Show.
Still to come later this week and every week our
picks and Prediction show with Terrell Firman, Junior Bogs' best
bets and our parlay picks as well. Let us don't
down below in the comments your favorite Week three picks,
and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like
bund and subscribing to the channel if you're new for

(48:19):
Scott Bogman Ipseth Wilcock, take care of y'all.

Speaker 3 (48:22):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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College Football Week 3 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 767)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 3 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 767)