College Football Week 6 Best Bets | Picks & Predictions (Ep. 808) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's going on everybody? Scotpogman here for betting pros to
give you my favorite picks and props for Week six
of the twenty twenty five college football season. Before I
dive in, here to remind you guys that we are
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Speaker 1 (01:52):
All right, So let's start with what happened last week.
Decent week on the picks, my first bad week on
the props, six and three on the picks. Rutgers plus
five and a half at Minnesota. We got that they
lost thirty one to twenty eight. Big comeback by Minnesota,
and that game over fifty one and a half in
that as well, So we got both sides of that.

(02:14):
USC at Illinois over sixteen and a half. We got
that one. It took all the way down into the
final minute, but we got that one. The next one,
next couple we did not get. Auburn in Texas A
and M over fifty two and a half. Auburn could
not score. They had nothing. I thought they were going
to be able to run against Texas A and M.
It was Jackson Arrel doing everything. They didn't do that

(02:36):
and M moved the football very well, but they just
didn't punch it in once they got down there. So
sixteen to ten was the final on that one. A
weird game that just whipped on Indiana minus seven and
a half at Iowa. Obviously that didn't work. It wasn't
as heartbreaking for me as it was for our guys.
Seth right who took the alt line down to six
and a half and then had the safety at the
end of the game. But we didn't get that one.

(02:58):
But the rest of these we did end up getting
LSU and Ole miss under fifty six and a half.
We got that. We took UCLA plus six and a half.
On what happens usually there in those games, the dead
cap bounce for the coaches getting fired. Won that one
plus six and a half. They lost seventeen to fourteen
Mississippi State plus eight and a half ver Tennessee they

(03:18):
lost in overtime by a touchdown. And then we actually
missed this last one.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
I forgot.

Speaker 1 (03:23):
This is my third loss, and this was the most
annoying one. Twenty four to twenty one Alabama at Georgia.
There was a touchdown score with like seven minutes left
in the third quarter. To make it this total of
forty five. All we needed was a touchdown in the
field goal at that point, and we get there and
obviously did not happen. No more scoring after midway through

(03:46):
the third quarter. But six and three we'll take that.
That's a pretty decent week. Looking at the props, we
were four and five on those. We got two three
touchdown calls. We got Haines, King, Cedac Calexander, we did
not get versus TA State, and we got way Jordan
at Illinois. As far as the props go, I was
right on the under for Garrett Nussmeier. I was also
correct on the over for eighth in caliac Manus at

(04:08):
two hundred and forty five and a half. But then
we just bottomed out on the position players here Bryce
and Washington one hundred and seven and a half rushing yards,
he only had like seventy seven. Cardinal Tate only had
thirty and change. Thirty eight I think it was fifty
nine and a half was his total. Jacob Dehaes, who's
had four when I needed five, and Bernard did not

(04:28):
hit his against Georgia either. So not a great day
on the props, but good day on the picks spring me.
After that one rough week, three games below twenty one
and twenty four, we're still seven over on the props
thirty and twenty three. But let's get into some picks now. Huh.
This week, I have a lot of picks, so I'm
going to go through them fairly quick. My props will

(04:51):
be at the same speed. But there's a lot I
feel like I like this week, So this is kind
of a spray the board, right, We're going with a bunch.
Maybe we make our unit. It's a little bit lower
this week since we're playing so much so or you
just obviously you don't have to tail me pick and
choose the ones that you like. But there's a lot
I like this week more than any other week so far.
So let's just start out Michigan minus seventeen and a

(05:14):
half vers Wisconsin. I also don't hate the team total
under for Wisconsin at thirteen and a half. I'm just
gonna make the spread my pick for the show here,
But just let you guys know, I like this one.
I despise this Wisconsin offense, like the defense might be okay, Right,
Michigan has two weeks to prepare for this game, though
they're at home, and Washington still has shown us nothing

(05:35):
on offense, absolutely nothing on offense. Danny O'Neil he got
most of the practice reps this week. They thought maybe
we're gonna get edwards back, but and he came back
in the last game they played, which was also two
weeks ago, and he threw three passes but then Fickle said,
we didn't save him from himself. So I don't know

(05:57):
if that means he reaggravated his injury or what has happened,
but it looks like Daniel O'Neill is gonna get the start,
and he has been miserable for Wisconsin so far. Michigan's
defense is going to be great in this one. I
think they're gonna be able to run up the score.
And this is a good game. You have a true
freshman as your quarterback that you know has been okay,
but he hasn't been outstanding, so you know, if you

(06:17):
start to pound these guys in the ground and get
his confidence up, run it up. So I think Michigan
wins this one going away by a lot. Let's go
to Virginia.

Speaker 3 (06:26):
Louisville.

Speaker 1 (06:27):
We're gonna go over sixty one and a half in
this game. And look, this is just Virginia keeps scoring
and they can't stop anybody. That's kind of the thing here.
Louisville has played very well on defense right now, but
the strength of schedule is very weak comparatively to Virginia,
and Virginia put up points on Florida State last week,

(06:49):
so this is a letdown spot, so I don't want
to take them against the spread here. I know there
are some people sprinkling on the money line because they
just beat FSU. This is a road game. It's gonna
be a little tougher. I think it might get weird
for them. But I really do love this Virginia offense,
and they pace too thirteenth highest, twelfth highest, somewhere in
that neighborhood. I think they're going to be able to score.
I think against Florida State they prove they can score

(07:10):
against anybody. But also I don't think they can stop anybody,
So I think Louisville is going to be able to score.
Miller MOS's gonna put up some yards here, so over
sixty one and a half there, all right? Moving on here,
I'm going to take Cincinnati on the money line against
Iowa State, and I'm just doubling down. This is going
to be a tight one. But Sowersby has been great.
He crushes zone coverage, which Iowa State runs at a

(07:32):
high rate. They haven't been tested by a good passer yet,
and neither one of these teams has put pressure on
the quarterback at all. One hundred and twenty second grade
for since he one hundred and twenty fourth for Iowa
State one sack per game for each of these teams.
The difference is that Iowa State runs the ball at
fifty four point eight percent, and since he is second

(07:53):
in run defense grade and thirty first statistically. So I
really like Sincey in that game. We're gonna go Florida
team total under eighteen and a half ars Texas. Look,
I'm a Texas fan. You can see v Y up
here behind me right. I don't typically take Texas games,
but I think the one thing that we know in
this game is that Florida's offense has been miserable. Texas

(08:14):
defense has been good. I have no idea what's going
to happen with Texas offense against a good defense like Florida.
They could completely fold up like Origami, which is why
I don't really care for the spread, specifically because Texas
is on the road, but I don't think Florida's going
to score many points each a lagway has been fairly miserable.
Texas plays an run really well, and I think it's
going to just be Florida. Lots of three and outs,

(08:36):
lots of punting. They don't make big plays either. Right,
That's the thing is, they're very low in the country
in explosive play rates. So I just don't think Florida
is going to have a lot to score this many points.

Speaker 3 (08:48):
Against a really strong Texas defense.

Speaker 1 (08:50):
We are going to stay in the state of Texas
here or go to the state of Texas out of Florida.
Texas Tech minus eleven at Houston. No. Look, I've lost
money betting against Houston at home this year, but I
took Colorado in that instance, and I was early in
the season and they were switching their quarterback. It was
too big of a reach. But Texas Tech went to

(09:11):
Utah in one. Right. I do think Houston is good,
but I don't think that they're going to be able
to pass very well. Connor Wigman. When Texas Tech is
getting home rushing four and they just have been getting
home rushing four with Bailey and Height all year, I
don't think that's going to change against a weak Houston line.
So I think my thought process for that Colorado game

(09:31):
plays better against a much stronger team in Texas Tech.
So picking on Houston again, hopefully they don't make me
pay again. I don't think they will. I'll tell you
what has been working for me. Taking Mississippi State and
points right. We did it against Tennessee and at worked
last week. We're going to do it against Texas A
and M. This is their first road test, right, But

(09:51):
this is a good team, Mississippi State and catching fifteen
and a half points. We're also going to go over
fifty five and a half again. Maybe I'm just not
learning my lesson on this right because I lost on
the over on Texas A and M last week. But
we saw Jackson Arnold try to run the ball. Auburn
didn't have a lot. Mississippi State has their guys, They
have a Booth and boff Well Shapin has played well

(10:14):
enough to put up some points as well. So I
like Mississippi State plus fifteen and a half. I like
their over twenty one and a half team total, and
we like the over in this game of fifty five
and a half that team total. I'll play off to
the side. I won't count for this show, but I
don't hate it. If you're looking around and just don't
like the over in this game. Ohio State versus Minnesota

(10:37):
under forty three and a half and you know what,
I'm gonna double down. I'm gonna take the Minnesota under
nine and a half team total. This Ohio State defense
is crazy right now. Drake Lindsay has been great, but
Darius Taylor has been out. Their backup running back has
been out from Minnesota as well. I don't know who
is going to play for them. That's going to make
them incredibly one dimensional against the best defense in the

(10:59):
country on the road in a night game. Pass on
Minnesota for me. So you know, the spread is really large,
and Ohio State hasn't been putting up a lot of points,
which is why I'm on the under here. So yeah,
I'm we're gonna rock under forty three and a half
and under nine and a half on the team total.
I mean nine and a half is because like, do

(11:20):
they do more than kick three field goals? Can they
get in the end zone? I don't think they can.
I think this might be a shutout for Ohio State.
So yeah, give me the under forty three and a
half and give me the under team total on Minnesota.
We're gonna take Pitt minus six and a half. First
Boston College. This one is Eli Holstein's gonna play by
the way. He was questionable going into this game, but

(11:42):
he's gonna play. And this is weirdly important for Pitt
to make a bowl. They have two wins right now.
They have at least three on the schedule if we're
counting this one right, and then they have to get
maybe an upset against somebody else looking at the rest
of their schedule. But they have to win this game
because you don't want to count on two upsets to

(12:03):
get to a bowl. So this is a very important game.
I think the coaching staff is gonna stress that this week,
and I expect Pitt to go out and win, and
if they get up I expect them to lean on
it heavily and not take the foot off the gas
because they have to have this win. So we're gonna
go pit minus six and a half at home. We're
also gonna take Memphis minus twenty and a half. First Tulsa.
Tulsa's not a bad team, but they don't have anything

(12:25):
on offense, and Memphis has everything on offense.

Speaker 3 (12:28):
And I think Memphis scores.

Speaker 1 (12:29):
At least probably forty points on this poor Tulsa squad.
I think they I honestly think they run them out
of the Building. I think it's gonna be a gross game,
but I think they put up a lot of points,
and I just don't think that Tulsa can play.

Speaker 3 (12:44):
Point for point with Memphis.

Speaker 1 (12:45):
So we're gonna go ahead and roll Memphis and lay
all those points. We're gonna take points for Maryland at
home against Washington. And this is the case of Washington
maybe getting beat by Ohio State twice. Right, they played
at home, they got whooped at home. It's a physical
loss that they had against Ohio State. Now they have
to go all the way across the country to Maryland,

(13:06):
who's been playing great football. They are unproven, right, they
are a four to zero unproven team. They haven't played
anyone tough yet. But I think they can make a
little bit of a stand at home. I think this
Malik Washington, their quarterback, has been outstanding so far this year.
I think that keeps Maryland in this game. I don't
know if they can win it, but I think this
could be a field goal, this could be an overtime game,

(13:27):
something like that. So yeah, I'm going to take Maryland
plus the points at home with Washington going all the
way across the country, and the last one I'll take
before we get to the props here Notre Dame team
total over forty one and a half Versuspoise State. This
one is just look Notre Dame lost those two games
we talked about this, right, they have to win in

(13:49):
impressive style every single week for the rest of the
year to even be in contention to get a playoff spot,
you know. So they are going to try to keep
the foot on the gap. They're going to try to
put up so many points their team total to forty
one and a half against a good Boise State team,
and I do not care. I'm taking Notre Dame to
put up over forty one and a half points. The

(14:11):
total in this game, I believe is sixty three and
a half, so a little bit more.

Speaker 3 (14:14):
I like that too.

Speaker 1 (14:15):
But my favorite bet in this game is Notre Dame
team total because they just have to pour it on
to look good in voters' eyes, and I think they're.

Speaker 3 (14:23):
Going to do that for the rest of the season.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
Before we get to the props. To remind you guys
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(14:47):
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Speaker 3 (14:55):
Do it today.

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Check it out over at Bettingpros dot com slash chat,
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(15:18):
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All right, props, I've got five touchdown calls for you,

(15:38):
three RBS and two wide receivers. We're gonna go Penn
State running back Nicholas Singleton at UCLA. Obviously UCLA is
a rough team right now. Yes this is on the road,
but I mean.

Speaker 3 (15:50):
Penn State's gonna whoop up on UCLA. That's not gonna
be a tough game for them.

Speaker 1 (15:54):
We're gonna go with Cameron Dicky, the running back for
Texas Tech, to score a touchdown at Houston. I think
Texas Tech is going to run away with that game.
I think Dickie can score a touchdown in this one.
Jeremiah Smith, we saw this working last week, that Saying
and Smith were finally kind of connecting. I think we
see more of that. Minnesota likes to play a lot

(16:15):
of man. You cannot man up on Jeremiah Smith. You
got to double him if you're gonna do that, and
I think he's going to have at least one huge catch,
hopefully it gets in the end zone. Le'Veon Moss, the
running back for Texas A and M scoring against Mississippi State. Hey, look,
I like Mississippi State in this game. Doesn't mean A
and M ain't gonna score. They're gonna score a lot
in this game. I think Mississippi States defense is not

(16:38):
great against the run. So I think that Le'Veon Moss
is going to score against Mississippi State. So I am
playing a little bit of both sides of that game.
And then look, UNC's defense hasn't been good, So let's
go with Clemson wide receiver Bryant Westco. Yes, they got
Antonio Williams back last week, but he's still GIMPI I
think that Westco has been their main guy, and I
think he's going to continue to do that and he

(16:59):
can use score against UNC. All right, some yardage and
player props here. Oh, we're gonna go. I'm doubling down
on this Michigan. Love right, I'm gonna take Danny O'Neil
under one hundred and seventy one and a half passing
yards against Michigan. He's had one twenty or under against
Maryland Bama in Miami, Ohio. He went over only against
Air Force in Middle Tennessee. So those upper echelon or

(17:20):
even halfway good defenses he has been miserable against. In
Michigan is a very good defense coming off of bye week,
So that one I really like, We're gonna stick to Cincy.
We're gonna go over one and a half passing touchdowns
versus Iowa State. He's had ten passing touchdowns in the
last two games. And I told you guys about you know,
iow State playing a lot of his own and sourceman
being able to pick them apart. Illinois running back Cayden

(17:42):
Fagan playing at Perdue. We're gonna go over seventy one
and a half rushing yards here. Purdue is eighty six
in rushing yards allowed per game and one hundred and
fifty eight point three. Vegan is the main guy here.
He is going to get the workload. We're gonna go
for a running back Jade and Ball under sixty two
and half rushing yards versus Texas. Texas d is third

(18:03):
in rushing yards allowed per game at fifty nine point
eight rushing yards allowed per game. That is fewer than
Bow is given in this gape. So I mean this
is one of the better opponents that Texas has played.
But they also played Ohio State, so I don't think
Bob gets there.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
Two one dimensional for Florida.

Speaker 1 (18:22):
Jamari Taylor, the running back for Virginia, We're gonna go
over sixty nine and a half rushing yards for him
versus Louisville. They unleashed him last week with twenty seven carries.
He was physical, he was awesome. Honestly, he needs to
get the football more, and I think he clears this
one fairly easily. And then SMU wide receiver Roumelo Brinson
over sixty two and a half receiving yards ver Syracuse
QS is one hundred and thirty second passing yards allowed

(18:45):
per game. Brinton has the most wide receiver snaps by
a wide margin and the most targets for SMU as well.
So in review, before I let y'all go going back
to the picks, we're going Michigan minus seventeen and a
half versus Wisconsin hosting Virginia over sixty one and a
half Sincy money line versus Iowa State, Florida team total

(19:06):
under eighteen and a half versus Texas Texas Tech minus
eleven at Houston, Mississippi State plus fifteen and a half
and over fifty five and a half at Texas A
and m Ohio State first, Minnesota under forty three and
a half and the Minnesota team total under nine and
a half Pitt minus six and a half, first Boston College,

(19:26):
Memphis minus twenty a half Versut Tulsa, Maryland plus six
and a half, First Washington Notre Dame team total over
forty one and a half firsts Poise State the props.
We got touchdowns for Nick Singleton, Cameron Dicky, Jeremiah Smith,
Leavey on Moss Bryant Westco. We have the unders on
Danie O'Neil passing yards on Jaydon Baugh rushing yards over

(19:48):
swordsby passing touchdowns, Vegan rushing yards, Jamari Taylor rushing yards,
and Romelo Brinson receiving yards. So that is everything for me.
Big slate for me this week, So we're liking it.
We're growing this as the year goes on, which is
exactly what we should be doing. So that is everything
for me. You can follow me on the Twitter app
Bogman Sports and good luck and I'll see you guys

(20:10):
next week.

Speaker 3 (20:10):
Take it easy, everybody.

Speaker 1 (20:12):
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Speaker 3 (20:26):
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Speaker 1 (20:27):
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College Football Week 6 Best Bets | Picks & Predictions (Ep. 808)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 6 Best Bets | Picks & Predictions (Ep. 808)