College Football Week 6 Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 806) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.
It's our week six preview episode where we'll give you
our official picks and predictions for the top ten games
on the slate. I'm your host of Seth Wilcock and
once again joined by the lads, including a man who
I'm actually surprised he's not already on the road to
Deskalosa to grab a front row seat for his Vanderbilt

(00:21):
Commodorees to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. He's Treel
Firman Junior. What's going on today? Trell?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Oh, Well, when you've seen it last year, you don't
need to go see it again. You saw this happen
last year, and history is doing to repeat itself, so
I can't wait.

Speaker 1 (00:36):
All right, Well, I'm excited for you to be locked
in load with us today, and we're also tapping back
into the big brain and the high vibes of Scott Bogman. Boggs,
how are you feeling about the upcoming slate as we
approach midweek here?

Speaker 3 (00:47):
I like last week's better because I was six and
three yeah last week, so that can't get taken away.

Speaker 4 (00:52):
We like that this slate is okay.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
There are some stuff that I really like, and there
are also some games that I'm morbidly in between on
so that I can't. I just don't have a good
read on this week as well. So little Callum, a
little Colum b. But in general, I like that we're
learning more and more about these teams every week and
seeing who they are, so you know we're gonna learn
a lot this week too.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Completely agreed. Man, I've been staring at a couple of
tickets on my phone today. Should I place it? You know,
there's one or two things that maybe trip me up
about a game, but there's certainly some things I like
about a few games. We'll talk about a few we
won't talk about it as well as all weas shout
to everyone who continues to make us a part of
their weekly mix by tuning in either on the Bank
Pro's YouTube channel or the audio feed the easiest freeway

(01:38):
support us. Please give this video a thumbs up if
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Speaker 1 (03:43):
Let's start things off in the noonslay up here in
Big ten Country, where we've actually seen no line movement,
leading the number twenty Michigan Wolverines to sit as sixteen
and a half to seventeen and a half point home
favorites against the Wisconsin Badgers. We do have a bevy
of injuries for both teams, though Michigan has both their
guards and starting cornerback as questionable, but they are quote

(04:05):
in a good place right now coming off the buy.
According to schroe More, Wisconsin is starting free safety is out,
plus starting quarterback Billy Edwards Junior and their center at
Jake Frenfrow remain questionable. BP projections have set this line
at nineteen point seven, so showing about eight percent ev
on the Wolverines Bogs. Are you still betting on Big

(04:25):
Blue here, man?

Speaker 4 (04:26):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (04:26):
I just feel like this Wisconsin team is about to
give up, right Like we all know, Luke Fickela is
out here pretty quick. I just think that this is
going to be one of those break the back of
this type of games here. And even if Wisconsin plays
harder than I give them credit for, I think in
the second half they're gonna be so worn out, they're

(04:48):
gonna start giving up big plays, which Michigan is below
average in ten plus yard plays. But they've also only
played four games compared to five for most but they
have five plays over fifty, which is eleventh in the country,
with one fewer game than most teams have played since
they've already had a bye week here. So I just
think that Michigan gets a lead and then poor Danny

(05:08):
O'Neill or Billy Edwards whoever is going to be behind
center here this week, because we just don't really know,
Like Edward's played in the last game two weeks ago,
but then we heard Fickle even admit we didn't save
him from himself and we put him back out there.
So it's just a mess at every level for Wisconsin.
Like the defense is still respectable, they could keep them

(05:30):
in this game, but I just don't think the offense
is And this isn't the best Michigan defense that we've
ever seen, but this is a defense that can lean
on a lead and bury a team. So I just
think that Wisconsin's not in a very good spot right now,
and Michigan is, and they're coming off a bye, it's
a good spot. To get some confidence for Underwood, maybe
run up to score a little bit.

Speaker 1 (05:50):
True, we've seen a slew of head coaching firings over
the past few weeks in college football. Will Luke Fickle
be the next? And is this kind of the start
of that downfall against the Wolverines on Saturday.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
I don't necessarily want to say this is the start
of the downfall. I think the downfall was happening. Is
it started way before this game. But in this instance, like,
I'm not necessarily looking to lay this amount of points
with this Michigan team just because I think that the
Wisconsin Badgers defense is good enough to keep them in
the game. First, you look at Michigan off the buy

(06:23):
here last ten games, they are seven and three straight up,
very good, but three six and one ATS, so they're
not getting the better of the number. And the thing
about this Wisconsin defense is how they can generate pass rush.
They have a very good pass rush. They don't have
to rush five to six seven people all the time.
They can rush for and get to the quarterback. And
that's going to be the difference in the game. Because

(06:44):
Bryce Underwood, he's throwing the ball at thirty eight point
nine percent completion percentage when he's under pressure opposed to
the sixty point seven percent without pressure. So if they
could send you to get pressure like they have been
on the defensive front, Bryce Underwood is going to make
a couple of bad throws and keep them in the games.
So I don't really want to lay all the points
with that. I'll take the plus the points with Wisconsin,

(07:04):
but I like the under more under forty two and
a half. This This just sounds like smash mout Big
ten football up there in Michigan.

Speaker 4 (07:13):
All that's missing is the weather.

Speaker 1 (07:15):
Yeah, it's coming, it's coming. It's especially October, so those
football weather nights are coming. And I'm kind of with
you Torell here that like, I'm looking for a place
to get invested in Michigan, but I don't think it
will be this week against Wisconsin, who has the top
rushing defense in the league, allowing just two point one
yards per carry fifty yards per game. As well. I
haven't faced a bunch of good rushing offenses yet, but

(07:35):
I think that could slow down Justice Haynes and company.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
Here.

Speaker 1 (07:39):
Let's go ahead, though, Let's shift to the SEC, where
we have not seen a lot of line movement between
the twelfth rank to Georgia Bulldogs and the Kentucky Wildcats.
You can still get the Bulldogs as twenty and a
half point favorites at some shops. For our friends over
at hard Rock Bet, they actually have moved this line
to twenty one and a half if you want the Wildcats.
Injuries rather minimal here as well. Kentucky there starting quarterback

(08:01):
DJ Waller he is questionable, and Georgia is starting right
tackle Ernest Green the third He is questionable after missing
last week's game against Bama. BP projections have this line
closer to eighteen points, so shown actually some value on
the Wildcats Andterrell. I know you've been on the right
side of betting against and for Mark Stoops squad a
few times this season. Will you once again have a

(08:23):
play in this matchup?

Speaker 2 (08:24):
Not one that I feel too good about, because if
you've been betting Kentucky against Georgia enough, you know that
Kentucky actually gets the better of Georgia a good amount
of times, actually one in four in the last five
games ats Kentucky is going up against Georgia, they've been
able to keep this game closed and it's just because
that Mark Steus goes out and has a really really
good defense that has been able to battle Georgia, Whereas here,

(08:50):
I think that he's got a lot more work because
you got Cutter Bowley, who clearly is not good at all.
Somehow Gonzada won the job, and so if you can't
beat Conzada out for the job, I just can't think
that you're you know, mid season, they throw you in there,
you're gonna be good. He hasn't looked good at all
at any point this season. The offensive line's not helping
him out at all. They are one hundred and fifty

(09:10):
second graded in PFF. He's got a thirty three percent
adjusted COLI percentage under under pressure, and so I'm looking
to add all of that. On top of all of that,
they have one of the worst pass defenses in college football.
So gutter Stockton over passing yards sounds good. I really

(09:31):
want to sit here and say, yo, just lay to
twenty and a half with Georgia and they're gonna be
able to get it done. But I know Mark Stewkes
has given Georgia games in the past. However, a lot
of those games has come with him not scoring points
and not allowing Georgia to score points. Either. We can
see this be some type of seventeen to three twenty
to three type of game. And so for me, just
give me the Kentucky team total under thirteen and a half.

(09:55):
I Cutter Bowley has to come prove to me that
he can put up two touchdown. Look, although the George
defense is questionable at times this year, he is a
horrible college quarterback compared to his peers.

Speaker 1 (10:08):
Well, we got a team total already out of the
gate from Terrell Boggs. Do you have a play in
this one?

Speaker 3 (10:13):
No, I don't. I hate this game. I hate every
single piece of this game. I am so sick of
losing money on Kentucky, whether I take them or bet
against them. I'm on the wrong side every single damn
time against Kentucky.

Speaker 2 (10:27):
Me.

Speaker 3 (10:28):
Yeah, look what Terrell just said is correct. Let's avoid
this game and take a player prop in it, right
I'll give you a player prop in this game for Friday.
I'm not gonna on Friday. I'm not going to mess
with this game right now. I think, look, in paper,
this should be Georgia thumping Kentucky. It should be that
on paper like every year and it never is. It's

(10:50):
always some close game, and we see Kentucky bow up
and play a good one. Last year was Old Miss,
and also Georgia they played hard last year. So it's
just I don't trust Kentucky at all, but I've lost
too much money betting against them, so I'm just going
to pass on this one.

Speaker 4 (11:07):
I'll give you a player prop on Friday.

Speaker 1 (11:09):
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(11:33):
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We've also seen known line movement in Cincinnati as well,
with the Bearcats still favored by one and a half
points over the fourteenth ranked Iowa state side Clones for

(11:54):
Iowa State on the injury front, their starting cornerback John
tz Walker is out, plus their other starting cornerback, Jeremiah
Cooper is questionable since he's defensive tackle Dante Corleone is
questionable as well. BP projections have Iowa State as two
and a half point favorites. So Boggs, is this a
spot we still get down on the Bear cast despite

(12:16):
the projection saying this should be the other way around.

Speaker 3 (12:19):
I'm walking into danger here picking against rock obect with
Trell on the show.

Speaker 2 (12:24):
But yeah, look on the show, just in general, you're walking.

Speaker 4 (12:28):
Into in life.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
Betting against him is not smart.

Speaker 3 (12:33):
Look, I think this is gonna be a really good game.
This is gonna be and for for the three of us,
this game is gonna be extra enjoyable because Trell and
I am sure are going to be on opposite sides
of it here. I like, since he at home, just
take on the money line. Like, the difference between laying
the one and a half and the money line is
like nothing here, So uh, it could be a one
point game.

Speaker 4 (12:53):
I wouldn't be surprised.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
The difference to me is that Cincinnati's run defense has
played very very well. Runs the ball over fifty percent.
Neither one of these teams are putting pressure on the
quarterback at all. Right, I think it's one hundred and
twenty second grade for Sincy in one hundred and twenty
fifth grade for Iowa State. Both teams are gonna be
able to pass Iowa State run zone at an incredibly

(13:16):
high rate. Sworsby has one of the best better passer
ratings against zone this season as well. I just think
home field and a little bit of an offensive advantage
for Swersby and the Bearcats is the difference in this game.
So that's why I'll take Sincy. If this one was
in Iowa State, I would probably be taking Iowa State.

(13:37):
I think that the home field advantage is a big
difference here in this one.

Speaker 1 (13:40):
Yeah. True, it's a great point the Bogs makes. It
has kind of been two different versions of the Cyclone's
one dominant performance at home it feels like time and
time again, and then when they get on the road
they seem to get a little bit flustered here. I
had them a couple weeks ago to cover against an
FCS squad and they couldn't do it.

Speaker 2 (13:57):
Yeah, but I mean, you guys just don't commit to
the gospel that is Rocoback in college football, and it's okay,
It's perfectly fine. Now, I will admit Roco does have
his faults. Yeah, the decision making under pressure is not there.
He's actually really really struggled when he's gotten under pressure
of forty two percent completion percentage opposed to seventy percent

(14:18):
when his claim. But again, the Sennessee team really struggles
at getting to the quarterback as much as Iowa State,
and sores be over seventy percent when he has a
clean pocket as well. So both of these two qbs
can put up a crazy game. But I just think
that this is going to be about the defenses. These
defenses are going to be so locked in on trying
to keep both of these quarterbacks off of their game

(14:39):
that I think that is actually going to go that way.
And we see both of the both of the offensive
lines which actually aren't too good offensive lines at all.
So it's gonna be which folds first, the defensive line
or the offensive line on both sides of the ball.
But here the Bear casts eleven five and two to
the under when playing ranked opponents. You've got since he
also the last couple of year years they're two and

(15:01):
seven ats as single digit conference favorites. I understand why
you think, you know, since he should go out there
and win the game. I think that it is competitive. However,
what I do know about watching Rocko Bett and Matt
Campbell is that they always just kind of find a
way to win these ugly one point two point three
point games, and that's just not the side of the
ball that you want to be fading here. So I

(15:22):
like under fifty three and a half. I think the
defense is actually going to get into it and this
is going to be more of a defensive game. But
I could not pick against Roco Bett because I just
know what that entails and it's nothing good.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
So is it the money line for you then as well? Charelle,
where you just think I'm on the underside, I'm on
the under Okay.

Speaker 2 (15:43):
I'm not really. I think both of these two teams
are even, and I think that it will be a
lot of momentum for both teams, and then it's a
it's a real game as well. And since he is
laying the points against the ranked team at home as
an unranked team, and that's been about a good sixty
eight sixty seven to sixty eight percent trend over the
last few years, and so I hate fading that, but
I also hate fitting Rono Beck. So I'm not going

(16:05):
to do either one of those things. I do think
it's an undergame though.

Speaker 3 (16:08):
I used one of those trends last week on UCLA
get in the dead Cat bounce after firing Foster and worked.
So some trends work. They just you know, they're friendly
trends for a reason.

Speaker 1 (16:18):
Yeah, I'll tell you what, man. One of the bets
I've been staring at all week, you know, thinking I
might place it was the over on Cincinnati's team total.
I think you talked me off the ledge there with
throwing out that trend there against top twenty five teams.
So I appreciate that. Let's go ahead and get to
Scottie Scheffler's least favorite city in the country, Lowllville, Kentucky,
where the line has moved about a point at hard

(16:39):
Rock Bet, where you can now get the number twenty
four Virginia Cavaliers as six and a half point favorites
against the Cardinals. Not one hundred of injuries to report
for this one. Uvas starting center Brady Wilson he is questionable.
And then Louisville they have a cornerback and they're too
deep questionable. BP projections put this closer to an eight

(16:59):
point line. Some slight value on the Cardinals here is
that where you're heading to row after just a week
away from backing successfully the Virginia calves.

Speaker 2 (17:09):
Yes, and first of all, come on Florida State coming
up into Virginia on the road thinking that they were
gonna get it done.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
It was a great, great job.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
Great Friday doll, great Friday dog there. And so with
that being said, this is now. They dumped the gatory,
they dumped the gatorade. They rushed the field, They partied.

Speaker 1 (17:33):
Quick rushing the field.

Speaker 2 (17:34):
Yeah, oh yeah, I mean scorel White was just disintegrated
into the crowd like he was freaking theys like the
theos snap and he just like just went away and
he was going into the crowd just like that. And
so yeah, no, I gotta fade that that UV eight
team going on the road here playing as little bit
team that somehow, some way found a way to get

(17:55):
it done and gets Pitt like Pitt was really giving
them their number, and they just continue to create turnovers
and give a battle back into the game and found
themselves covering the number. In fact, like I think that
this is a lous team that is here to stay
in the ACC. Right now, Miller Moss is playing okay,
and it's enough to take advantage of the Tony Elliott
defense and the Tony Elliott down spot after beating rank

(18:18):
Florida State at home going on the road here, so
laying seven this is a nice letdown spot for UVA Cavaliers.
I will take Littleville here to get it done.

Speaker 1 (18:29):
Bogs. It's probably been years since I've ever like faded
or backed Jeff Brom. I don't know why you say
a coach that kind of scares me. I don't know
if it's the shiny head or what it really is,
but I usually try to stay away from Aullsville games.
Do you have a play here?

Speaker 4 (18:41):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (18:42):
I like the over in this game, and it's because
of what Virginia offers on offense and defense, which is
a lot of offense and no defense at all. There
are five and oho playing to the over wow this season,
and it's a high over. I believe it's sixty one
and a half still is the number, but I think
what we saw last week from Virginia was the big test.

(19:04):
Can they score against Florida State? Well, obviously they put
up forty six points and four hundred and forty yards.
Now also gave up over five hundred yards to Florida State. Right,
So I think Louisville is going to be able to
move the ball with Miller Moss, but I think Virginia
can score as well. Louisville's defense is good. It's one
of the better defensive teams in the ACC. Louisville is,

(19:25):
but they're not better than Florida State. They're probably right
around the same. So Virginia just scored a bunch of
points against Florida State and look great doing it. Tomory
Taylor looks awesome. Chandler Morris scoring three rushing touchdowns adds
a little juice at the goal line as well. Like
this offense is moving the ball. I know Tony Elliott's
a defensive guy, but give me the over in this game.

(19:45):
I think they go point for point and I think
Chandler Morris is going to continue to move the ball.

Speaker 1 (19:50):
Tuscolosa host College Game Day on Saturday, where we've actually
seen some money come in on the tenth ranked Alabama
crimson tide that has pushed the sixteenth ranked Vanderbilt Commodoors
to eleven point a row dogs. Vandy is healthy coming
in other than their starting defensive tackle is questionable. For Bama,
They're starting linebacker Kua Rusaw. He is out of this game,

(20:13):
and BP projections are calling it to stay away. Our
line is right in line with the book. So Boggs,
do you have an official bet on this big game?

Speaker 3 (20:21):
I mean I have a lean on this game, and
I think that Vandy has been very impressive. But remember
they played the ninety third strength of schedule so far
this season, and Obama has the last week one and
we're not at all crazy impressed by what they have done.
But they beat Georgia and there is no way that
this game is a look ahead spot after what happened

(20:44):
to Bama looking ahead last season in Vandy. So I
think you get a concentrated team here now. Vandy's been
great against the past this season, nineteenth in coverage and
better than average statistically as well. They're allowing fewer than
two hundred yards per game. But Alabama is coming off
a clean game from Simpson where he wasn't sacked and
rarely pressured. If Vandy can put pressure on Simpson, I

(21:06):
think they can stay in this game and beat the spread.
But I think we're gonna see what we have seen
from Alabama is a different offensive line than what we
saw Week one against Florida State. They allowed three sacks
in that game. They've allowed one in the next three games.
So I just think Bama at home with Ty Simpson
is going to be a little bit too strong for

(21:28):
this Vandy team. So I'll lean that way. But you know, look,
I'm confident in Cincinnati. I'm not super confident in Alabama.
I'm not gonna take this game. This is just a
lean for Alabama. So I'll let Terrell have the floor
and tell you why you should take Diego Pavia. It's
way more fun.

Speaker 2 (21:46):
Yeah, because this is clearly a letdown off of the
Georgia win. I mean, to start the season how they
did in a complete no show game against Florida State,
and then to go on the route in Georgie to
hear all those Georgia fans that had complaining about how
Alabama never comes to Athens, neverver comes to Athens, and

(22:11):
they come in there and put a w up on.

Speaker 6 (22:13):
You, simps, I don't need I don't need to look
ahead spot in this game, because they've already got the
letdown spot sitting there right for me.

Speaker 2 (22:25):
They're already riding the high of beating Georgia and we're back.
Alabama football is back. They're on fine baumb talking about Yes,
it's working, We're back. The bower y'all wanted to fire
the Bauer late till you see what happens when he
loses to Vandy two years in a row, this time
at home. Because that offense is rolling and getting pressure

(22:47):
to the quarterback is key. Both lines very shaky for me.
Even though Alabama NFL prospects, they've still been very, very
shaky over the course at the start of the season.
I think that that Vandy defense is legit and can
be able to get to the quarterback. They look good
in SEC play thus far. And Pavia is a baller.
Pavia is able to see pressure and be able to

(23:07):
still perform. Like Pavia throws a little bit better under
pressure that he does.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
Than he has been. Like he's just he's playing at
a different level he is.

Speaker 2 (23:17):
And what happened when they saw a quarterback with that
kind of moxy and that kind of drive in saying
that I'm going to go out here and put up
points on this Alabama defense. They took an O and
get and put up thirty something points against Florida State.
So I think that this is another opportunity where it's
just the style of play is going to be a
lot for Alabama. They're going to it's going to be
a little bit of a back and forth game, and
you better not hope that Diego Pavia gets the ball

(23:39):
with the chance to go up for the league because
it's going to be scary. I mean just taking a
leak all over the Alabama field here, Diego Pavia gets
it done.

Speaker 1 (23:51):
Money line as well as the spread for you.

Speaker 6 (23:53):
Of course, of course you always money silly questions.

Speaker 2 (23:58):
Why would you not money? And this is the thing
that people would be like, oh, I'm not I think
I might cover. I'm not going to play the one.
Let's say you don't bet it and you're watching the game,
You're like, man, they're up fifteen points and I got
plus seven and a half, plus eight and a half. Whatever,
aren't you gonna be sitting there like, man, if I
had that.

Speaker 1 (24:14):
Money line right now, I've over three to one.

Speaker 2 (24:17):
And then it's a great sweat because how many times
imagine if you had the Mississippi State money line like
me last week, that was an amazing sweat, amazing sweat.
I got an overtime knowing that I cashed one bet already,
and then I'm just like, Okay, maybe Mississippi stea can
get it done and get me an out right whin here.
Same thing with the Iowa game. It was a great sweat,

(24:39):
sweating Iowa, very very good sweat. Sorry, Stef, I didn't
even bring that up.

Speaker 1 (24:45):
That's all right, man. We moved forward. And yeah, I
can't give anyone credit for this because I don't remember
who tweeted it, but it was an Alabama beat reporter
or TV anchor someone in the media space down Tuscaloosa,
and they said something along along lines is never in
a million year what I've ever thought college game Day
would come to Tuscaloosa for a game against Vanderbilt. But
here we are, man, here we are.

Speaker 4 (25:07):
So it's a different era of football. Man, it's way better.
Lee is a good coach.

Speaker 1 (25:11):
Man, Yeah, he absolutely is. Let's go ahead, though, Let's
get to Gainesville, where six and a half point tickets
for the number nine Texas Longhorns are slowly disappearing against
the Florida Gators. Injuries could play a big part in
the handicapping here as well. Gentlemen, Texas, they're hoping to
get back running backs Trey Wisner and CJ. Baxter, plus

(25:31):
their wide receiver Emmitt Mosley, who he has not made
his season debut yet. We also have center Cole Hudson
and defensive tackle Alex January who are questionable for the Longhorns.
Florida they hope to get starting wide receiver, flanker back
a J. Michael Sturdivant and his backup Aiden Mazzelli who've
been out for a little while now. We also have

(25:51):
questionable for the Gators nickelback Aaron Gates, linebacker George Gumms Junior,
and a few members of the defenses too deep as well.
VP projections have this closer to an eight and a
half point line. So given Texas just a bit just
I mean just a bit like one percent expected value,
So That's where I'm going here. I just don't think
Florida can get after the quarterback. They are one hundred

(26:13):
and thirty plus in sacks. I think this offensive line
will be able to hold Arch accountable. If you can
get a couple of these running backs back as well,
I think they'll be able to run over this Florida
defense that has some secondary issues and some issues in
that linebacking core right now with hell, So, Terrell, are
you with me here on the Texas long horns or
is this another one of your long horns down spot

(26:35):
for you?

Speaker 2 (26:37):
No? I mean, it's not even fun this year anymore,
to be honest, maybe if you're not taking the Yeah,
it's not even fun this year anymore. But Texas in
this spot one in three eight cs in the last
four games after a bye here, I do think Florida
actually can kind of generate some pressure on the defense

(26:58):
and playing in the swamp, like you gotta add that
aspect of playing on the room. This is a really
big game, both of these qbs. I'm just not really
into right now, And so that's what makes it really
hard for me, Like does somebody have a worse game?
And I'm not sold on the offensive line for Texas,
by the way, I think that there's been too many
spots where they've kind of gotten Arch in some bad

(27:19):
situations and then Arches made. A bad makes bad decisions
sometimes as well. And I just think the Aura Farm
after you know, Sam Houston State and doing what they
did Sam Houston, the Aura Farm of that, and then
coming in here and attempting to do that again against
an SEC defense. I don't think it's gonna work here.
So I think this is a closer game. Maybe Texas

(27:41):
gets the one. Maybe that is not even committing to that,
But I do think that this is gonna be. This
is gonna be in a touchdown. I think this is
gonna be in a touchdown. And this this was one
of those games that got in overtime. And I'm sitting
here sitting on a plus six and a half ticket,
and overtime again, I wouldn't be surprised. So yeah, I
think Floria's in this game.

Speaker 1 (28:00):
Bugs. I'm all about hook them this week, are you
as well?

Speaker 4 (28:03):
Look what do we know in this game?

Speaker 2 (28:06):
Right?

Speaker 4 (28:06):
I think that's the big.

Speaker 1 (28:07):
Thing in Texas defense is awesome.

Speaker 3 (28:09):
Texas defense is really good, right, That's what we know.
We Also, I feel like know that Florida's offense sucks.
It's just not good right now. It could be because
Lagway was playing hurt to begin he's coming off a
bye week. Maybe he's better now, right, that could be it.
But the Texas defense has been great so far to
start the season. Look, laying the points with Texas is

(28:31):
a dangerous proposition until we see them play to their
full ability, which we have not seen yet. So I
don't really like a piece of this game on the side. Here,
give me the under seventeen and a half or sixteen
and a half. I think it's fall into team total
for Florida. That's what I wanted this game. I think
this is going to be the clock is controlled by
the Longhorns. I think you're going to see a lot

(28:51):
of three and outs, and even like you know, if
Florida could develop some big plays, they haven't done it
so far this season. Florida's played the sixteen target strength
to schedule. But the best measure to me is Texas
over six over on defense, eleventh and coverage, sixth and
pass Rutch grade and Florida is having to pass at
sixty two at a sixty two percent clip because they're

(29:14):
losing every single game so far this season. Like they've
been down in every game except for the first one.

Speaker 4 (29:20):
Where they beat whoever.

Speaker 3 (29:21):
It was Long Island fifty five to zip or whatever.
So every other game, uh, they've just been losing and
having to pass. So I just think that Texas gets
a lead early and then they just stand on it.
You force Florida to pass, they haven't been doing it well,
and you hit the crap out of Lagway.

Speaker 4 (29:37):
So I think this is.

Speaker 3 (29:38):
Going to be a slow bleed. You know, maybe the
scripted drive or maybe even the first couple of scripted
drives for Florida are okay. But if Texas can hold
them the field goals and I think they're going to
be able to. I just don't see Florida crossing sixteen
and a half points, So give me the under on
Florida's team total.

Speaker 1 (29:57):
I know Arch hasn't like lived up to expectations or anything,
but when you talk about DJ Lagways, there's just like
a chance guys that like, this guy's accidentally just like
garbage and what we saw last year in that stretch
down this you know towards the end of the season
was just like he didn't know what he didn't know
SEC defenses, you know, hadn't had enough film on him.
They didn't really know what type of quarterback he was
because he's been awful. I mean, he's argued been I mean,

(30:20):
I think it's what I don't.

Speaker 2 (30:21):
I mean, the last two games you went on the road,
You played a bat to back road spot, and you
went on the road LSU and Miami before the bye,
like me, and that's your first, that's your first. That
is your first time on the road in the SEC.
That is your first time going on the road in Miami, Like, like,
how much do we really give you? Yeah? Now, they

(30:44):
had a tough schedule, they had a tough schedule, and
we knew that this schedule was gonna be tough for him.
So I'm not jumping. I'm not jumping to say that
he's the worst thing ever. And I think, if anything,
this is a good bounce back spot, just being at home,
having a chance to go back and get the home
crowd behind you, especially because the last time you were
here you took a very unfortunate loss to a baller
in Yeah, South Florida. So I think the first SEC

(31:08):
home game this place is going to be late, the
atmosphere is gonna be crazy, and they're gonna go out here.
They're gonna put on a performance before we.

Speaker 1 (31:15):
Keep it moving. If you want a chance to score
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(31:37):
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new episodes are up and they claim your prize. If
you are that lucky winner in primetime money must have
come on the Houston Cougars overnight because this line is

(31:58):
shrunk to a point where you can now have the
eleventh ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders as ten and a
half point favorites. Tech gets back Quarterback Baron Morton and
Houston should also be at full strength. BP Projections say
this is another stayaway spot. Projecting this line at eleven
and a half. But Boggs, as it stopped you in
the past from laying some points, is that the move

(32:20):
here for you again?

Speaker 3 (32:22):
Yeah, and listen, I've lost this game betting against Houston
at home before, so take it with a grain AsSalt.

Speaker 4 (32:28):
That was Colorado. Though.

Speaker 3 (32:30):
We saw Texas Tech go into Utah and smokey Utah
right like.

Speaker 4 (32:34):
That is a dangerous game.

Speaker 3 (32:36):
And they went down there and they went up there
and handled it like it was no issue. I don't
think Houston's going to be a problem. The big difference
here to me is that this Houston offensive line and
defensive line just does not match up well either side.
It is just a rough matchup for them against Texas Tech.
Houston is one hundred and thirty fifth out of one

(32:57):
hundred and thirty six in pass block grade and David
Bailey Romelo Height have been stomping people into the ground
for the Raiders and they only have to rush three
or four to get home every single time, which makes
them dangerous.

Speaker 4 (33:10):
And coverage too.

Speaker 3 (33:11):
And Connor Weigman, I feel like is going to have
a rough game in this one.

Speaker 4 (33:15):
So it's more about that side.

Speaker 3 (33:17):
But look, Baron Morton's back when we saw the backup
go in there and just zip it all over the
place like this offense is moving well. This defense, specifically
the line is gonna have a field day with this
Houston O line in my opinion. So I just I
don't see how Houston pulls this game out.

Speaker 4 (33:36):
I'm gonna tease it down a little bit.

Speaker 1 (33:38):
Nine and a half maybe.

Speaker 4 (33:40):
Yeah, I think this is a bit much.

Speaker 3 (33:41):
I got an alt line for my parlay as well
for this game that I'll give you.

Speaker 4 (33:45):
But I'm on the Raiders here winning big.

Speaker 1 (33:48):
What about you, Chrell?

Speaker 2 (33:49):
Yeah, same thing here. I like sex and sex be
able to get it done. It's really the offensive line
for me in Houston. I just don't think that they'll
be able to protect Connor Wigman enough, and that's not
one I want to back, especially with there's a bunch
of guys that like that sex sec defensive line in
his face. So I think I'm glad that they were
able to knuckle up and get the win last week
and didn't outright lose that game because it might have

(34:11):
been a little bit of extra motivation here. But now
I'm feel pretty good about fating this team all the
way here in this spot. I think that's Sex is
gonna roll them on the route.

Speaker 1 (34:20):
Let's head to another top twenty five matchup in Tallahassee,
where the line movement has been absolutely wild between the
number three Miami Hurricanes and the eighteenth ranked Florida State Seminals.
It's now settled in at Miami minus four and a
half at most books. Hard Rock Bet has minus five
and a half as well. Miami should be a full
strength they're coming off their bye week. FSU is just

(34:42):
waiting on the status of their starting flanker wide receiver
Javin Boggs. BP projections have this as another stay away
as well, setting our line at four points.

Speaker 4 (34:51):
So, Terrell, do you have a play.

Speaker 1 (34:53):
In this one?

Speaker 2 (34:54):
Yeah? On Florida State. Definitely on Florida State. This is
this is where you Tommy c to go have that game.
Do you remember in the beginning of the season when
I said, no shot he beat Alabama, especially after talking
about Alabama, and then he went and put his money
where his mouth is and he gave Alabama everything that
he said he was gonna do to them. This is
the spots that you bet him. You bet him in

(35:16):
the spots where he's an underdog. Nobody thinks that he's
gonna be able to go in there, be competitive, get
a win, and he goes and gives them a win.
But in spots like last week where all the pressure
is on him, they gotta go on the road. You
got the fans and everybody's showing up for this top
ten team coming into town, and they completely folded and
the defense never got right. This is one of the

(35:38):
games where I think that they're gonna coach up the
defensive side of the ball. The defense is gonna be solid.
They're gonna get to Carson Beck here, and that's really
the big thing is the Miami offensive line and how
they've been able to protect him. But I think that
Florida defensive line is gonna come in, They're gonna have
something to say. They're gonna rattle Carson Beck. The offense
is gonna be as clean here, and Tommy c is
gonna do what he does, run the football effective, get

(36:00):
this offense moving and makes time he throws down the field.
So I like Florida State plus the points. I think
they went out right.

Speaker 4 (36:07):
Scott.

Speaker 1 (36:07):
We don't have a lot of unbeaten teams currently in
the ACC, just a few of them, including the Georgia
Tech Yellow Jackets as well. So is this where we
lose one of those undefeated teams potentially here in.

Speaker 3 (36:19):
Tallasse I think we could, right, Like, this is a
much more email game and gun to my head, give
me points for Florida State at home.

Speaker 4 (36:27):
So I'm with Terrell.

Speaker 3 (36:29):
I feel like you're with us too here on this one, Sethi, Like,
I just this defensive line.

Speaker 4 (36:35):
The thing that worries me about this and.

Speaker 3 (36:37):
Why I'm a lean and not a pick in this one,
is this Miami defensive line might be the best in
the country. Ruben Bain is the best defensive player in
the country right now by a decent margin, like and
Mesidora has been amazing as well. But Malson designs the
run game to take advantage of defenses. I just don't

(36:57):
know if there's anywhere to take advantage of Miami.

Speaker 4 (37:00):
That's the thing.

Speaker 3 (37:01):
If they get this running game rolling and then Tommy
can play off of that, I think Florida State could
easily win this game out right.

Speaker 4 (37:08):
I'm with Trell. I think that's what's going to happen.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
I think this is going to be a much tighter game,
and people give it credit for and I think Florida
State wins on like a last second field goal or something,
so i'd take them plus the points. But if that
doesn't work, Miami's gonna beat the crap out of Florida State.
So it's gonna be one of those like where it's
either a real tight, narrow margin one way or the other,

(37:32):
or Miami wins this one. It's a joke in the
middle of the third quarter. So I just don't think
Florida State is bad enough to get beat like that.
I think you can surprise them like Uva did, but
they give you your best effort, their best effort every
single time out. We saw that against Alabama week one,
so give me the knowles.

Speaker 1 (37:49):
There's been no line movement for a Big Ten matchup
in Columbus with the top ranked Ohio State Buck Guys.
They're laying twenty three and a half to twenty four
and a half points on the Minnesota Golden Gop. Minnesota
starting running back Darius Taylor he is questionable and they're
running back to aj Turner. He is out of this one.
OSU should be at full strength coming off a West

(38:10):
coast trip here, and this is another staway spot from
the VP projection setting this line at twenty four points.
So I'm rolling with the alt Minnesota team total under
eleven and a half minus one fifty six. What say
you on this one, Boggin?

Speaker 3 (38:25):
Yeah, I mean, look, Drake Lindsay has been very good
to start for the Gophers this season. He led them
in the comeback win against Rutgers. But I mean, that's
all well and good. Now you have Ohio State, so
good luck with that. You have Allo with at night
in Columbus at night with maybe both of your running
backs down. So if Lindsay has to throw the ball

(38:47):
forty one times against the buck Eyes, he is going
to die in this game. That is not you can't
do that against the buck Gys. So if this was
a strong year for the Minnesota defense, they might get
some c it but a true you know, against the
true freshman and Julian saying, but he just went to
Washington and beat them on the road and they look
pretty efficient, and he started to gain his rapport with

(39:09):
Jeremiah Smith finally, and now you're gonna ask Drake Lindsay
to pass into a Caleb Downs led secondary. You're gonna
ask this defense to man up Smith, Tate, and Ennis
and the former Gopher Claire like these teams are one
hundred and twenty third and one hundred and twenty fifth
in pace as well, I can't. I don't know if

(39:32):
I want to lay this many points just because Ohio
States offense hasn't been that yeah master quite yet, But
give me the under in this game. I don't know
if Minnesota scores any points in this game, and if
they do, it's not gonna be fourteen. I bet I
like this team total under the you're on seth, So
I just I don't see a lot of positivity for

(39:53):
the Gophers in this game. So the positivity is that
they the Ohio State Buckeyes have played slow and you
know they're not gonna score an insane amount of points,
but they easily could.

Speaker 4 (40:06):
Here.

Speaker 3 (40:07):
I think there's gonna be a lot of three and outs,
a lot of short fields, and a lot of mismatches
for the Ohio State offense. So yeah, I just give
me the under.

Speaker 1 (40:17):
Here, Okay. Yeah. Ohio State is currently averaging allowing just
under six points per game to opposing opponents. No one
has scored double digit points on them this season. So
with that said Terrell. Is there hope that Minnesota can
maybe cover this number?

Speaker 2 (40:33):
I mean maybe like some type of backdoor covers on
the table here. But I'm good on this game. I
mean I'm not sold on the High State. I'm not
all sold on Ohio State even caring about this game,
to be honest, Like if you sat here and told
me that this was a three point game at halftime
and then Ohio State just kind of sits up in
the gaming chair focuses in a little bit. Next thing

(40:54):
you know is thirty to six or something like that,
I wouldn't be surprised at all. So nothing here from me,
nothing good. I don't even know how this made the car.
How do we end up talking about this?

Speaker 1 (41:05):
It's a big game. You don't get Benny, Ohio State
and Ohims in Columbus. Yeah, come on, baby, let's go
have some respect, have some respect. Let's go ahead, though,
let's round out the program in college station where there's
been no line movement and you can still get the
Mississippi State Bulldogs as fourteen and a half point road
dogs against the sixth ranked Texas A and m Aggie's.

(41:26):
Mississippi State's right tackle Blake Steen he is questionable. A
and m's linebacker Scooby Williams he's out of this one,
and Bryce Anderson, their starting safety, is questionable. BP projections
set this line at ten and a half, giving the
Bulldogs a fifty nine percent chance of covering the spread
at its current number. So is it another lap around

(41:46):
back in the Bulldogs for Terrell?

Speaker 2 (41:48):
No? No, this is Texas A and M all the
way here, boo. It was absolutely everything Mississippi States to
get that game and overtime and to try to go
out there and get the win, and they didn't do it,
and now they have to try to get up again

(42:09):
going on their first game outside of the state of
Mississippi in week six. This is week six. This is
Mississippi State's first game outside of the state of Mississippi
to going to College State.

Speaker 1 (42:22):
Crazy.

Speaker 2 (42:22):
It's because they had the earlier game against USM, so
I'm fading them in this road spot. I think that
they gave it all they could in the Texas game.
I think this is going to be the Texas A
and M explosion on offense at home game where they
put up some thirty forty something points of offense here
at home and Mississippi State really just struggles to find
their footing and being able to consistently move the ball

(42:44):
in the Texas A and M defense, So I think
that this is a smash spot. I love Texas A
and M walk in here and cover two touchdowns Againssissippi.

Speaker 3 (42:52):
State, Wow, what about you, bogmin Yeah, I love this
one moving away from Mississippi State because I think I
want to take them. I have a better bet than
that in this game. But I do like Mississippi State
catching more points and I think we can look at
these teams records against the spread. But digging in, I
think it's going to be another back and forth shootout.
Last week was so low scoring for A and M,

(43:14):
but they moved the ball. They had four hundred and
fourteen yards and it was exactly perfect split two hundred
and seven rushing, two hundred and seven passing.

Speaker 4 (43:21):
They just didn't punch it in.

Speaker 3 (43:22):
Mississippi State's defense is a little better than Auburn's and
grades so far, but the real difference is that their
offense moves fast twelfth quickest pace in the country From
Mississippi State. Their balanced with Bothwell and Booth in the backfield,
along with Blake Shapen under center, so I think they're
going to be able to score.

Speaker 2 (43:39):
Now.

Speaker 3 (43:39):
Texas A and M is running hot with Marcel Reid
and the coverage GRAE grades well. From Misissippi State, Tennessee
moved the ball on them. They had three hundred and
thirty five passing yards and forty one points. I think
this Notre Dame put up forty points on Texas A
and M. I think Jackson Arnold is like the whole
run game for Auburn and it didn't work, and then
therefore nothing else did work for the Auburn Tigers here.

(44:03):
I think this one will be higher scoring, quicker paced,
more of a shootout, therefore a little bit closer as well.
But to Terrell's point, this is a tough road game
for Mississippi State going on the road to College Station,
like you're used to the noise, sure, because Misssippi State
has been super loud in Starkville so far this year,
but now it's going to be against you, not with you,

(44:24):
and so that's tough. But the team total twenty one
and a half for Mississippi State, give me over twenty
one and a half for Mississippi State. I think they
can go over this against A and M because A
m's run defense has been bad when it's not just
the quarterback trying to run the ball. Remember Auburn had
two running backs down last week. So I just think
this is going to be a higher scoring game. Doesn't

(44:44):
mean that Texas A and M doesn't win it going away.
This could be forty two twenty four, and you know,
the Aggies crawl away with this one. But I think
it's going to play a little bit closer. And I
like Mississippi State to be able to score here.

Speaker 1 (44:57):
A lot of team totals on the show today.

Speaker 2 (44:59):
I like it.

Speaker 1 (44:59):
That's really a fun market here, especially in Pennsylvania where
we can't bet player props. It's just a great way
to find some additional value on a couple of teams
on a couple of games. Let's go ahead and get
out of here on best bets for me. I'm sorry
Fogs to do it to you. I'm going to Texas
right now. That's death right now, Boggs, what about you, man?

(45:20):
Do you wanna you want to join me on that?

Speaker 4 (45:22):
Well?

Speaker 3 (45:22):
I was gonna go with the Florida team total under
sixteen and a half, but you know, what because you
just did that, I'm gonna switch it to Mississippi State
over twenty one.

Speaker 2 (45:30):
And a half.

Speaker 4 (45:30):
Okay, that's what I'm gonna do. Okay, let's go Mississippi
State over twenty one and a half. At the Aggies, Trell.

Speaker 2 (45:36):
Louville gets it done laying to seven and eight prime
and I just mean crime let down the spot for
Virginia after knocking off.

Speaker 4 (45:44):
The top six.

Speaker 1 (45:45):
Love it, gentlemen, great stuff today. That is going to
do it for us on this episode of the Betting
FROs College Football Show. Still to come later this week
and every week right here on the VP YouTube channel
and audio feed bogs best bets and props plus our
parlay Pa. Let us know down below in the comments
your favorite week six picks, and while you're here, make
sure you're subscribing to the channel and smashing that like.

(46:07):
But if you enjoyed this video for Scott Bogman Antrell
Firma Junior, I'm Seth Welcock take care of y'all.

Speaker 4 (46:13):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

Speaker 1 (46:15):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
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Speaker 3 (46:20):
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College Football Week 6 Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 806)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 6 Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 806)