College Football Week 7 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 812) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.
What's been perhaps the most unpredictable season to date rolls on,
which means we've got our Week seven early picks and
line movement predictions coming right at you.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
I wish I had some positive remarks to make at
the top of the program here today, but after another
losing week for the betting card am I Penn State
and innee lines.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
The kid is down bad right now.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
But pulling up next to me is one of our
resident college football gambling experts here at Betting Pros, who
also had a team drop out of the AP rankings
after being the preseason number one ranked team. He's Scott
bet the Total Bogman Boggs. I wish we were back
under better circumstances, but great to see you. Nonetheless, how
are you as we wipe the slate clean here for

(00:49):
Week seven?

Speaker 3 (00:50):
Yeah, I mean, you know, six and seven last week
on my picks, so I've sprayed the board a little
bit more than I typically do. We ended up one
game under, so just okay on the bats. But I
mean the real oppression was not only from losing the
game to Florida but looking like absolute trash for the
entire game. I mean, there were no positive takeaways for

(01:13):
the long orders in that game. And here comes Oklahoma
this week. So yeah, the college football we're playing to
win bets from now on. We're we're not aiming for Natty's.
It seems like a pretty impossible feat for our teams.
Not impossible, but highly unlikely that either one of our
teams is going to make the playoffs at this point.

(01:34):
So let's win some money, babe, let's go.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
Yeah, I'm with you there, man.

Speaker 1 (01:38):
Like it's October sixth, and like the preseason AP rankings,
top five the odds currently to make the college football
playoff Texas plus two to thirty five, Penn State plus
six eighty, Ohio State minus thirty five hundred, Clemson not
even listed, and Georgia minus one eighty eight. So like,
I'm freaking real man, it's been a crazy season. But
we do trudge on here, and today's program does look

(02:01):
like this as well. We'll recap all the Week six action,
the betting risers, the betting followers, plus give you an
early handicap for the top ten games for Week seven
and as always, shout out to everyone who continues to
make us a part of their weekly rotation by tuning
in either on the Betting Pros YouTube channel or the
audio feed the easiest freeway support us. Give this video

(02:21):
a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content,
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(02:42):
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(03:04):
you could be alerted when new episodes are up and
to claim your prize if you are that lucky winner. Now,
let's go ahead and look back at a weekend of
college ball that some of us may never forget. Number
twelve Georgia covers for some against Kentucky thirty five fourteen.
Cincinnati holds off Iowa States comeback thirty eight to thirty.

(03:25):
Number twenty Michigan wins versus Wisconsin twenty four to ten.
Virginia the twenty fourth ranked team in the country. They
eke pass Louisville thirty to twenty seven.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
Zero to four.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
Ucla the upset Number seven Penn State forty two thirty seven.
No crowd there first time played Coler Jerry.

Speaker 3 (03:44):
Even on the field. No didn't have enough people.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
They tried, they tried. It was not a good look.

Speaker 3 (03:49):
More cops than people.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
It felt like absolutely.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
Florida takes down Boggs's Number nine Texas longhorned twenty nine
to twenty one in the Swamp. Number ten Alabama heats
number sixteen Vanderbilt forty to fourteen. Number eleven Texas Tech.
They stay perfect thirty five eleven against Houston, Number six
Texas A and M They up in Mississippi State season
thirty one to nine. Number three Miami holds on twenty

(04:16):
twenty two over number eighteen Florida State and number one
Ohio State crushes Minnesota in the shoe forty two to three. Bogs,
Who are your betting risers and followers here?

Speaker 2 (04:29):
In week number six this season?

Speaker 3 (04:31):
Well, I mean, obviously Penn State had a rough one
going all the way across the country and dropping it
to this is to me, this just brings the legend
of Oregon up a little bit more, right. I feel
like we've talked about and you know, the national media
has made a big deal about the Oregon hangover that

(04:53):
a lot of teams have after playing Oregon. The next week,
they're still beat up and they get smoked. And that's
what happened in Penn State. Now, was it Oregon? Was
it traveling all the way across the country. Was it
just the fact that they kind of let Nico do
his own thing. I mean, Seth, I'm sure you have
been disgusted by this and you haven't really looked too
much into it. But I can't remember the head coach's

(05:15):
name now, but he was talking about how he didn't
even know how to press the button.

Speaker 2 (05:18):
Like the first couple of plays, yep.

Speaker 3 (05:21):
The first couple of plays didn't even get into oh
it was new isilcom plays. They didn't even get into Nico.
He had to make his own plays because he didn't
know which button to hit to call the play. Like
that's where we were at with UCLA and they somehow
win this game. So that one was ridiculous. I think
more of you know, trend down on Penn State, which
you can obviously this was a shocking loss, like you

(05:43):
know Texas loss. It wasn't shocking. Florida is a very
good team. This was surprising. I think I raised Ucla
a little bit more than I dumped Penn State. Obviously,
not a good look for Penn State. But if UCLA
can go and hang with them, I think they're turning
it around there now that the coaching stuff has changed,
so we at least have that. I mean for Ohio State,

(06:03):
just feels like they're sharpening their knives. So with all
these opponents right now, right like they haven't even looked
good until this week, I think they looked excellent right
holding Minnesota to three points, scoring forty two drives.

Speaker 1 (06:15):
They give up any points. It feels like, man, once
you get off script, you cannot score on this Ohio
State defense.

Speaker 2 (06:21):
Man, it is.

Speaker 3 (06:23):
It is really ugly facing this Ohio State defense and
Miami you know for that as well, Like, you know,
I kind of thought, hey, FSU's at home, they're going
to have the crowd. This is as good as they've
been in a long time. And Miami just went in
and that defense looks unstoppable right now. So we're learning
a little bit more about these teams A and M.

(06:45):
Like whatever the defensive issues that A and M had
are gone right these last two home games, they have
been great. A little bit more on that later. I mean,
I expected Alabama to beat Vanderbilt. I just felt that
that was rife for some payback from last year, and
the whole public was on bandy like it just felt

(07:06):
like Bama was definitely gonna beat that spread, and they did.
Texas Tech looks like a national title contender. Since he
thirty eight to thirty is not what that score should
have been. It should have been about sixty to thirty,
so since you should have scored a lot more.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
So.

Speaker 3 (07:22):
Yeah, I mean, we're learning a lot about these teams,
and the deeper we get into conference play, the more
we're gonna learn and probably back off of having such
a big board that I had last week since it
didn't get me on the A and M in Mississippi
State was really bad. But yeah, I think we're learning
a lot here and the picture is, at least in
an unpredictable year, is coming a little clearer right now.

(07:46):
So I'm sure something will change this weekend. But I
think for a lot of these teams, we're kind of
finding out who they are.

Speaker 1 (07:51):
Especially like you know, the power Force becoming clear, but
so are the G five contenders as well. Memphis makes
its way to twenty three in AP rankings this week.
They're six and zero coming out of the American South
Florida as well. From the American they're four and one.
They have a huge game against North Texas, which also
got a couple of receiving votes in this week's AP rankings,
so that's gonna be a huge defining battle for who's

(08:15):
gonna get that G five bid in the college football
playoff this year. And don't count out you and LV
as well. They're still getting some votes there too. Bogs
after right. Yeah, Yeah, so very very fun slate, even
though it didn't go our way. I will say, like,
my final takeaway is like, I'm not gonna fade air
Force again. That was kind of the play here, I

(08:36):
should I was originally like, I need to go with
my gut a little more. I was originally leaning to
go with the Navy team total over. I went with
a spread instead. Charrell talked me off that Cincinnati team total,
which would have hit in the first half.

Speaker 2 (08:48):
So that was a bummer. But air Force, dude, I
was glued to.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
This game in that noon hour bogs because they might
be the best one and four team in the country
along with UCLA, because they have this guy Leam Zarka,
who might the best future academy quarterback in the country.
Didn't start the season as the main guy there for
the Falcons, but he was just going back and forth
with Navy and everything they're thrown at him. So that
was a really fun game there.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
I think air Force has been a good post game
win expectancy team, you know, one of those squads where
theoretically they should have won some of these games. But yeah,
schedule's tough.

Speaker 2 (09:22):
Yeah, I mean that's how it is. Though.

Speaker 1 (09:23):
I mean we're seeing those and I'm sure we'll see
some more teams kind of towards the second half this
season that we're not even talking about currently. I mean
last year Arizona State, right like, this is kind of
right in the time where we started to really know, oh,
Cam scattab who might be a guy and lead this
team down the stretch, and he certainly did.

Speaker 2 (09:38):
So.

Speaker 1 (09:39):
We'll certainly talk more about the futures betting markets potentially
next week's show, Boggs.

Speaker 2 (09:43):
Maybe we'll make some time at.

Speaker 1 (09:44):
The beginning of the program to talk a little bit
more about futures markets. But let's fire things up here,
starting with an SEC Top twenty five matchup in the
noonslate where the number eight Alabama Crimson Tide there two
and a half to three and a half point road
favorites against the fourteenth Frank Misser Tigers. Bama comes off
their four straight cover and second straight Top twenty five

(10:05):
win over Vandy. Quarterback Tys Simpson, he's really made this
an elite passing offense. Their top five in the country
in passing yards per game. They have struggled to run
the ball, though, one hundred and fifth in rushing offense
and stop they'll run eighty eighth in rushing defense.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
Mazoo. They're coming off the buy.

Speaker 1 (10:22):
They're undefeated currently straight up three to two ats this
season and the one that got away from us here
in Happy Valley qb Bo Pabiola. He has this offense
cooking right now. Amaud Hardy is making his case to
be the Doke Walker Award winner as well. Third in
rushing in offense as a whole, he leads the country
in rushing, fiftieth in.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
Passing offense for the Tigers.

Speaker 1 (10:43):
The Tigers d also top ten against the pass and
first against the rush.

Speaker 2 (10:47):
So buggs.

Speaker 1 (10:48):
Bama won this game thirty four to zero in Tuscaloosa
last year, but I think we're all expecting, including the books,
a different result this go round.

Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah, that was also the game. I think their quarterback
was hurt, right, that was a big They had a
lot of issues going on. Burden I think was banged
up as well, so like Missouri had a lot, But
this is a different Missouri team, and I think I
like Missou at home here. You know, they beat Kansas
and South Carolina, but those are pretty middle of the
pack so far. Alabama a little more battle tested obviously,

(11:20):
but the problem that makes me lean to staying away.
I'm gonna have a lean here. I don't think think
I have a play. So I would like to take
Alabama because they won that game last year. I think
they're kind of hitting their stride, especially coming off that
win against Georgia I think was very impressive here, and
you know, they went and dominated Vandy, so they're looking

(11:41):
more like Bama. But the games that they you know,
the game that they lost to FSU, they give up
two hundred and thirty on the ground. They gave up
two hundred and twenty seven to UGA a couple of
weeks ago. And that is what Missouri does well, is
they run the ball, control of the clocks. They've been
rushing the passer well as well. You know, a little
bit weaker of a schedule for me Missouri than Alabama,

(12:01):
but I think Missouri is a very good team and
they're at home. So I kind of like Missouri in
the spot here coming off of bye because they're at home.
But I think Bama might be gearing up to be
you know, their final form here, So this one is
tough for me. Yeah, I'm gonna lean towards Missouri. I
might have a more uh you know, hardened pick by

(12:23):
the time we talked to Terrell. But right now, it's
just gonna be a lean towards Missouri. And let's see
which way this line goes, because I think it's gonna
go towards Alabama. So if it expands a little bit,
the more the more it grows towards Bama, the more
I'm gonna like it for the Missouri side. So I'll
wait and see where the line goes.

Speaker 1 (12:38):
I might offer like a team total here to be
honest with you, Bogs on the Missouri Tigers, just because
I don't know if Alabama can stop him light right,
like Tommy Castellanos ran all over the Spama defense, I
think with both bo and it's twenty four and a half, okay, yeah,
Like again, I'm gonna take twenty good number. Twenty three
and a half is a better number because I've I've
got I got screwed on the hook a couple weeks

(12:59):
ago Penn State against Oregon on that number, So I
would probably opt down to tease that down. But twenty
three and a half sounds very doable for the Tigers.
So that might be especially at home man, this orowdy environment,
and it's just gonna get better and better as the
season progresses. Here.

Speaker 2 (13:14):
I miss you, bo I.

Speaker 1 (13:15):
Miss my little boy, bo I miss over in Champagne.
We also have a top twenty five Big Ten matchup
with the top ranked Ohio State Buck Guys.

Speaker 2 (13:24):
They're laying fourteen and.

Speaker 1 (13:25):
A half to fifteen and a half points against the
seventeenth ranked Illinois fighting a lioni. Ohio State comes off
their fourth cover of the season, forty two to three
winning against Minnesota. Matt Patricia has this defense firing right now,
ranked number one in the country in scoring, allowing just
five points per game, their third and total defense as well.
And this is the slower paced offense that we're seeing

(13:47):
under Brian Hartline as compared to what Chip was running
last year, but it's efficient, ranking twenty eighth in total offense,
twenty second in scoring as well. Illinois, they're coming off
their fifth cover of the season, they won forty three
to twenty seven im Purdue. Aside from that Week four
wallap in Bloomington, like they're starting to put together a
pretty nice resume here fifteenth, toughest strength to schedule so far,

(14:08):
but they ranked ninety fifth in total offense, ninety third
in total defense, bogs. Do you think Luke Altmeyer and
company they have the goods here to keep this one closed?
And is there any chance that this line trinks up
under two touchdowns by kickoff?

Speaker 3 (14:21):
I think it does, just because I don't think a
lot of people want to lay that many points. But
we also saw Illinois get massacred by Indiana earlier this year,
so this is kind of a weird one. The points
has already moved towards Illinois, but it hasn't quite gotten
where we see this game at BP, it's closer to

(14:42):
it's like right around eleven. So I think two touchdowns
might be a bit much, But I like the under here.
I just think that Ohio stated that defense has been unstoppable.
The pass blocking has been rough for the Iliini. It
is really bad against Indiana. And I think Illinois is
kind of a beet plus team right Like they're going
to beat almost every P four's school you put in

(15:05):
front of them, But once you get to that upper
echelon the top twenty the top fifteen, they're not in
those games, I think. And I think Indiana kind of
proved that. I think Ohio State is going to prove
it again. I don't think it's going to get away
from them quite as bad as Indiana did. Right specifically
because you know, Ohio State is looking better on offense,
but they're not quite in their stride. They look better

(15:26):
against Minnesota. Minnesota is really one sided on the offensive
side of the ball, though, so it allowed them to
hold the ball the whole game and all that. So
to me, I think I like the under in this game.
I like an under aliin it. Team total, I haven't
seen where it is yet, I can look it up
real quick, but yeah, I think I'm looking closer towards
unders instead of playing aside in this game, just because

(15:49):
that does kind of seem like a decent amount of points.
So team total right here for Illinois is sixteen and
a half, and I'm playing that under.

Speaker 2 (15:58):
I'm with you, like, don't fix what isn't brogue?

Speaker 1 (16:00):
Man, this is the one market I feel like we've
been pretty good at this year as a whole on
the show. Team totals and especially under in Ohio State games.
I mean, they're averaging allowing what six five points to
season bogs so and I would say they faced offenses
that are just as good, if not better than Illinois,
Like I would take probably Washington's offense right.

Speaker 2 (16:21):
Next to Illinois, so like, yeah, yeah, the.

Speaker 3 (16:23):
Strength of schedule is seventeenth, right, Illinois's got a good
strength to schedules nineteenh So, but I just think I
think Ohio State's defense is too good right now. Illinois
is not a slouch. They're you know, plus seven in
the turnover mark, we had one of the highest in
the nation. They don't get a lot of penalties thirty first,
but Ohio State's eleventh. I just think Ohio State they

(16:46):
have everything on this team except a very strong rushing offense.
That's like the one thing that's missing from them right now.
And they could get that by the end of the
year would not be surprising. So I just I have
no confidence in the Ili ni in this game. So
give me the under and I really like that team
total under for Illinois.

Speaker 1 (17:04):
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Speaker 1 (18:56):
Next up, let's go to the Texas State Fairgrounds for
the Red River Rivalry game, kicking off at three thirty
pm Eastern Time. The number six Oklahoma Sooners they're not
catching two and a half to three points against the
unranked Texas Longhorns. Oh Use triggerman John Mattier expected to
be sidelined for this game, leaving sophomore Michael Hawkins, junior

(19:17):
back under center, coming off a three touchdown performance against
Kent State. And even if this fifty fifth ranked total
defense is a slightly nerf here, I think the Sooners
still have a really good defensive unit. Their top overall
ranked in the total defensive metrics and second in total
scoring defense as well. Texas meanwhile, they are three and
two after a game against Florida and they were out

(19:40):
gained four hundred and fifty seven to three hundred and
forty one. In that game, they took six total sacks
against a Florida team that only had three sacks coming
into that one.

Speaker 2 (19:48):
The long horns thirteenth.

Speaker 1 (19:49):
Ranked total defense was exposed as well, allowing Florida's offense
to I would say Boggs look the best it has
all season playing against FPS opponents, and arch Manning once
again very very underwhelming.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
Both through the air and on the ground.

Speaker 1 (20:03):
So Bogman, is this a spot maybe we can get
back invested with Texas or is it a hands off
approach because it has been such a back and forth rivalry.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
And do you think this spread might tighten up even
throughout the week.

Speaker 3 (20:16):
I don't really care where the spread goes, you can't
take Texas right now, You just can't. I don't think
you can take Oklahoma with at my teer, though, can you.
That's fine, Let's go with the under forty two and
a half. I have never seen a more clear seventeen
to seven game. Then what is looking at me right here?
This Oklahoma defense has been outstanding all year. One of

(20:39):
the best in the country. I mean statistically first in
a lot right so first in total defense, second, pass
defense fifth, and rush defense plus two on the turnover
margin even with offensive mistakes, so very very strong defense.
Texas defense has been strong as well. They clearly were
not ready for Florida to come out and sling the
ball on the field. And Dallas Wilson looks like an

(21:02):
amazing impact freshman for the Gators, but Oklahoma doesn't have that.
They have a good receiving cores and I think Hawkins
is better than he was last year. But Hawkins was
embarrassing against the Longhorns in this game last year. This
was a very very quick smashing.

Speaker 2 (21:19):
Of the Sooner thirty five.

Speaker 3 (21:22):
I have never been more comfortable in a Red River
shootout than I was last year watching this game, I
don't expect that at all. I think this is going
to be a gross field goal game where it comes
down to who holds the ball a lot, which is
usually not the case. Usually this is a big twelve shootout, right,
But now that these teams are in the SEC playing defense,

(21:43):
I'm pretty sure Arch is playing hurt. I think it's
been pretty clear since he's been grimacing week two with
the shoulder thing. I think that's obvious at this point.
It starked out real defensive when they asked him about it,
when he grimaced a couple weeks ago two. I think
that's just like you're playing right into it. It's pretty obvious.
And with Matier being down though, ou offense is just different. Yes,

(22:04):
they look great against Kent, but that's Kent, so yeah.
I mean the Sooners they held Auburn in Michigan under
three hundred yards of offense, and even last week against
Kent State, Hawkins was fifty percent in completion percentage. That's
not great against Kent State, one of the worst teams
in the FBS. So yeah, under on this total, I

(22:25):
just don't think this is going to come anywhere close
to this. I think this is a like if even
if it's a lopsided game. I think it's twenty eight
to three lopsided game, you know what I mean? So
I just do not. I don't know how we can
trust e their offense right now?

Speaker 2 (22:39):
Man, I miss I miss money line with Tier.

Speaker 1 (22:41):
We need him back because because that would be the
play here, right if he was in this I would
I would absolutely be betting for the Sooners here on
the money. I mean they probably be favored though, right
Matier is up for this one.

Speaker 3 (22:51):
I bet so they be favored by a touchdown.

Speaker 1 (22:54):
If you think on a ten point swing, do you
think he's worth ten points?

Speaker 3 (22:57):
I do? Yeah, Like, I don't know why Texas is
What has Texas shown you this year at all to
say that they should be favored in this game. They're
good against Sam Houston, who cares Oklahoma was gonna get
Kent against Kent State, who cares Like I just these
offenses are both pathetic right now, and the defense is
just still pretty good. Even though Texas played terrible this week.

(23:17):
They We're not expecting Lagway to go and throw the
ball down the field that much. I have a much
better game plan against Oklahoma way more familiar rival, and
they're not gonna do anything tricky. They're not coming off
of bye week, so you know, maybe they get some
tricky stuff in there, but I don't think it's gonna
be as embarrassing as they looked against Florida. I just
don't think Hawkins has Lagway's skill so healthy, Lagway's pretty good.

(23:38):
Broken Lagway no good at all. We know that. So
I just no points in this game. Take the under.

Speaker 1 (23:45):
Another banger in the late afternoon, Slate comes by way
of a Top ten Big Ten matchup between the number
seven Indiana Hoosiers and the number three Oregon Ducks. IU
comes off to buy and right now they sit three
and two ATS undefeated straight up. The sig Signetti smoke
is still rolling strong out there in Bloomington. The Hoosiers

(24:06):
currently ranked fifth in total offense, fifth in total defense.
Quarterback heights been hopeful Fernando Mendoza. He leads the Big
Ten in passing touchdowns with sixteen, and he has two
wide receivers, Elijah Serrat and Omar Cooper Junior, who are
tied for the conference lead with six receiving touchdowns apiece.
Oregan also comes in off the by following a white

(24:26):
out overtime victory in Happy Valley. They two have a
ninth ranked total offense and the seventh ranked total defense
in the country, giving them the fourth cover of their
season coming in as well. After that Penn State game, bugs,
do you have a play here? And is there any
early line value out there? With Ayu catching between seven
and a half and eight and a half points depending

(24:47):
where you're looking.

Speaker 3 (24:49):
I don't see it, right, Like, I think this line
is pretty good. I think this is right where it
should be. But I don't know how you can bet
against Oregan right now. Like Indiana is amazing, and I
think they're a very good team, and in roster strength,
I mean, they might actually be a little bit better
than Oregon. Surprisingly, but throughout the too deep in all

(25:10):
of that, it's I think we're it's Oregon, and Oregon
has been beating people so bad that we've invented this
Oregon hangover, right, Like Penn State did give Oregon a
good game, So maybe I'm overblowing the difference in these
teams here, But I just don't think like we just
neither one of these teams have really been greatly tested.

(25:32):
I guess Oregon, I mean, because how good do we
think Penn State is now?

Speaker 1 (25:36):
Right, They're definitely still a top twenty five team, but like,
how good are.

Speaker 3 (25:40):
They closer to Clemson? Are they closer to Oregon? The
same thing with Texas. Yeah, I want to be defensive
about Texas too, but what they've shown us on the
field is they're not that good.

Speaker 2 (25:49):
Right.

Speaker 3 (25:50):
So Indiana's a very good team. I don't see them
going on the road to Oregon and playing their best game.
Can they play a winning game? They can? Yes, they can.
They're a great team. They're a good squad, and they're
very fundamentally sound. Right. Not a lot of misses, but
there's more. There been more misses this year than there

(26:10):
was last year. So I think I'm gonna take orgon here.
But I will not be betting my money. I will
not be betting your money or anybody else's money on
this game. This is one I just want to watch
and see what happens. Maybe I pick a player prop
in this one, but this one is too close for
me to like. Maybe if it gets below a touchdown,
I want Oregon, but it's it keeps I feel like

(26:31):
it's going to expand towards Oregon. If anything, I think
it's going to go eight and a half or nine
and a half. We do have a massive split in
tickets and cash. The tickets not overwhelmingly, they're well over
fifty percent on Indiana. The cash is overwhelmingly on the
Oregon side. So there must be just a couple massive

(26:52):
bets on Oregon so far, and I think that's where
I would lean as well.

Speaker 1 (26:57):
Man, I'm just impressed with what Dan Lann continues to
do because the depth of this program goes beyond the
quarterback position, right I mean, everyone knew switching from Dylan
Gabriel this season as he approaches his NFL career to
Dante Moore could potentially bring a couple of hiccups. It
really hasn't. They also then lose Evan Stewart in the offseason.

Speaker 2 (27:15):
It doesn't matter.

Speaker 1 (27:16):
Gary Bryant Junior has been awesome, Kenny and Sadik is
the best tight end in college football right now. I
think too, and like so much to the fact where
everyone coming in, like we all thought Makay Hughes transferring
in from Tulane was just gonna take over this backfield.
Word is that he's making a business decision. He's not
gonna be on the field here pretty soon. He's red shirting.
So and it doesn't matter. They got Whittington, They got

(27:38):
people in the backfield that can get it done.

Speaker 2 (27:40):
So I mean, dude, they're.

Speaker 3 (27:42):
Just they keep finding, you know, gems underneath the next
gem and all that. But I think I think the
main thing why like Oregon here is because they're gonna
be able to get Indiana out of what then. Typically
do Indiana likes to dominate time and possession. They like
to drag the ball around and hold the ball and
bleed the clock. You're not gonna be able to do
that against Oregon, so I think Oregon throws them off

(28:05):
their game enough to do that. You know, Indiana plays
at the one hundred and tenth pace, Oregon plays at
the eighty fifth pace. So if by some stretch Indiana
can dominate time and possession, they can win this game.
I just don't see how. I don't see anybody dominating
time in possession against Oregon unless Oregon is scoring so

(28:26):
fast that that other team has to all the ball longer.
That's the only way.

Speaker 2 (28:30):
This is one of those games I can't wait to watch.

Speaker 1 (28:32):
I don't think i'll get action down on it, though,
I think, yeah, that's probably the truth for that one.
Let's go ahead and pop off the top of the
primetime slate where we have the Florida Gators traveling to
College Station as seven and a half point dogs. Florida
coming off that big win in the Swamp over Texas,
getting them back to two and three ats this season.
The Gators offense looked explosive for once that return of

(28:54):
Dallas Wilson was legit.

Speaker 2 (28:56):
Jane Baugh went over one.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
Hundred yards for the first time on the ground in
quite some time as well. Florida does remain ninety fourth
in total offense but twenty fourth in total defense, and
they have had the six toughest schedule in the country
so far this season.

Speaker 2 (29:09):
A and M.

Speaker 1 (29:10):
They're coming off that thirty one to nine victory over
Mississippi State. They're covering for just the second time this
season as well. Mike Elko's team is top twenty five
in both total defense and total offense.

Speaker 2 (29:21):
Bogs.

Speaker 1 (29:22):
Do the Aggies keep things rolling here against the Florida
team they beat thirty three to twenty last year in
the Swamp and any thoughts on where we see this
line move.

Speaker 3 (29:30):
Man I can't pick against the Aggies again. Man, I've
done it two weeks in a row and it's been
losing me money. So I don't think I can pick
against them. I think if this moves, I would assume
it moves towards Florida, right, Like, you know, Florida finally
is impressive. A lot of people wanted to like Florida

(29:51):
coming into this year. Right, they were a very big
sleeper national title contender because lagway in this incoming freshman class.
And then lag plays like garbage and the incoming freshman
class is hurt. Right, So like, I think a lot
of people want to buy Florida. So I think maybe
we get some bandwagons on Florida for this game. But

(30:11):
like I was saying before, I think WHATEVER and M's
problem was on defense against Notre Dame. They fixed right Auburn,
they held the ten points and one hundred and seventy
seven yards. They are Mississippi State to two hundred and
nineteen yards and nine points. Maybe they fixed it. Maybe
it's home field advantage. I don't really care because A
and M's at home in this game. So I think
I gotta take the Aggies in this one. You know

(30:34):
Florida looked different. They look better on offense, but they
had two weeks for prepare. Dallas Wilson was a surprise
and he was really good and should be continue to
be a great asset in a field structure for them.
This isn't my favorite game this week, but in specifically
because I've been so wrong about a M and A
and M is still like their second They're the second

(30:54):
worst team in penalties in the country.

Speaker 1 (30:56):
Right, Yeah, They're undisciplined as all get out, man.

Speaker 3 (30:59):
Right, So like there are actenuating circumstances that keep Florida
in this game, specifically, if the offense is better than
I am going to give them credit for against this
A and M defense. But I just can't bet against
the Aggies right now. I've done it two weeks in roads,
lost my money two weeks in a row. I'm not
done it again. So give me the Aggies.

Speaker 2 (31:18):
Lean.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
Yeah, I think I'm with you leaning there, but probably
another opportunity that I'm not going to get invested with,
just because I think there are future days to fade
this Texas A and M team. They're at Arkansas next week,
then they're going to LSU. They're off a week and
then they're going to Missouri. I think LSU and Ama
Zoo are both opportunities on the road we fade them.
I just don't want to fade them here in Kyle Field.

(31:42):
I mean, besides, you know the swamp and well well
used to I used to think was a good, good
place to play up in Beaver Stadium. There aren't maybe
many crazier places to play than Kyle. So yeah, looking
forward to that one. Don't think I will be invested.
But also in the seven thirty slate, we have the
number fifteen Michigan Wolverines. They're catching two and a half
points against the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, Michigan. They've

(32:05):
remained two to three ats this season after failing to
cover in a twenty four to ten win against Wisconsin
last week. And stop me if you've heard this before,
but the Wolverines their fifteenth in rushing offense. They're also
outside the top ninety in the nation in passing offense.
They do have a top twenty defense, though, that is
built to stop the run. They got some big cloggers

(32:26):
up the middle there that might come in handy against
Lincoln Riley's Trojans. I think this is still one of
the most elite offenses we've seen. Their second in total
offense this season. But they continue to struggle on the
defensive side, which is nothing surprising if you know Lincoln Riley,
if you know his background, especially struggling against the pass year.
You will see three and two ats this season coming

(32:47):
off to buy only covers have comeing against Missouri State
and Georgia State. So, bugs, despite getting beat last week,
are you backing on the Wolverines here?

Speaker 2 (32:56):
In under a field goal game?

Speaker 5 (32:58):
Man?

Speaker 3 (32:58):
So did you see I don't know why would you
watch the end of this game, But it was the
same thing that happened to me in that BC game
the week before, where they could have scored at the
end but they decided to let the clock run out
to beat the spread. And you know, like they have
they're gonna run one play and it's like if he
gets in the end zone, it goes over and he

(33:20):
was aiming for it, but they tackled him at the
three and they just let the clock run out.

Speaker 1 (33:24):
Break.

Speaker 3 (33:24):
So yeah, yeah, just you know, just a betting killer
right there. Not my favorite game, right like, because I
think that if this was in Michigan. I'd probably be
taking the wolf raines here, but them having to travel
makes this a little more blurry. We also see it
towards USC, like, but it's gonna be one of two things.

(33:45):
It's either going to be a low scoring gross game
that I think Michigan should win if it gets into
any type of point for point even though USC can't
stop anyone. I don't know if Michigan's offense is good
enough yet to be built to go point for point right,
so I think it's possible, though, Like the USC defense
is real bad, So I don't have a good feel

(34:08):
one way or the other because I think this is
either going to be a high scoring affair close game
or a low scoring drag them in the mud close game.
So it's gonna be a close game no matter what.
It's a one and a half point spread. I just
don't trust Lincoln Riley at all. And this defense is bad.
I know Michigan's traveling here. We're getting points with them, though,
And if this goes out more to like, if this

(34:30):
gets a three to three and a half for USC,
because people like the offense, then I understand that they're
at home. It is a big travel game for Michigan.
And look, Michigan lost a road game to Oklahoma. But
Oklahoma is a defensive team, right, like they stop them
by holding them. I think Michigan's gonna be able to
stemy the offense at least a little. I think I

(34:51):
would go towards more towards the under in this game,
so that'll probably just be my play. Is the under
fifty seven and half yep, exactly, but this is not
my favorite. It's not a game that I will be
betting this weekend. I think it's a little bit too close.
Maybe I'll dig a little deeper and find something that
I like in this game, but I doubt it's going

(35:13):
to be a side of the total.

Speaker 1 (35:15):
I actually think fifty seven and a half going to
the under is a really good play. I think that
might be my first official play of the week here
bogs because look, US sees their pass defense is their weakness.
Michigan cannot really throw the ball super good with Price
Underwood like he's doing everything he can. But you know,
you got samaj Morgan out there dropping passes and fumbling

(35:35):
the ball like nothing comes easy for Michigan.

Speaker 2 (35:37):
Right now, I feel like.

Speaker 1 (35:38):
And USC Wow, It is their passing offense, in myava,
that is really driving this thing. They've still had some
success running the ball. I don't think they'll have that
against Michigan. So I feel like fifty seven and a
half is a really generous number to.

Speaker 3 (35:51):
Get the Well, here's my issue is what if the
Michigan offense all of a sudden comes to life right
like we saw Florida do this weekend. I don't think
that you usually comes at home. It usually comes off
a bye week, so it's not likely, which is why
I still like the under here. But it is within
the realm of possibility. Right This Lincoln Riley defense has
never ever been good and it continues to not be

(36:13):
good this year. And I don't think it's this game
is going to change anything. It's just what underwood do
we get. Do we get a confused on the road
having a difficult time underwood or do we get a calm,
cool and collected dude that sees how he can really
take advantage of a rough defense in usc that that

(36:34):
is going to be the difference in this game. And
it's not a difference I'm willing to bet on just.

Speaker 1 (36:38):
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(36:59):
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The Kansas Jayhawks land in Lubbock as thirteen and a
half point dogs to the ninth ranked Texas Tech Red

(37:22):
Raiders rock chock four and two straight up this season
three and three ats. They are coming off a win
and a cover at UCF in Week six. Jalen Daniels
their quarterback. He's kind of refound something here in year six,
leading the conference in efficiency rating. He's also uncovered the
talent of Alabama transfer wide receiver Emanuel Henderson, who leads

(37:43):
the conference in receiving yards. They've combined to give the
Jayhawks a top forty total offense, but their defense still
outside of the top seventy five in yards allowed. This
might be an issue against the big twelves. Newest wagon
Texas Tech. They are undefeated ats they rank first in
total offense and passing offense, plus they have a top
ten total defense to boot between Dicky Jacoby, Williams, Coleekens,

(38:06):
Caleb Douglas. This is a talented offense with a defense
later with a lot of NFL talent as well, David Bailey,
Romelo height as well. So Boggs, we're sitting at that
key number of thirteen and a half. Is this the
time to get on it?

Speaker 2 (38:19):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (38:20):
I mean I think I want to wait and see
if it shrinks a little bit more. But I'm this
is Texas Tech to me because I think we've seen
this game already, right. We saw Kansas go to Missouri
and get smashed, and that's a rival that wasn't gonna
happen for a while, and they still got smashed in
that game. I think Texas Tech and Missouri probably line
up fairly equally, right likee Missouri doesn't on the ground,

(38:41):
Texas Tech more does it through the air, but Texas
Tech can do it anyway they want to. Right now,
it feels like I think I think the Raiders are
a national title contender. I think they're gonna win the
Big twelve going away. I think their biggest competition is Utah,
who they've already dismantled in Arizona State.

Speaker 2 (38:57):
Arizona State.

Speaker 3 (38:59):
I think Arizona State is in the same zip code
as Texas Tech this year, I don't think it's close.
So I think the Raiders are going to win this
one going away. But I do think that we could
see money come in towards Kansas. I don't think that
the whole country is buying in quite yet. They haven't
had a gigantic marquee matchup. That one game against Utah
was very early, you know, in a weird spot, and

(39:22):
they won that one going away, So I don't know
that everyone has been able to see Texas Tech dominate yet.
So maybe we get a little bit more towards Kansas
because they've been good the last couple of years, and
they have an exciting offense, and they are a good team.
Right I think Tech runs away with this game, So
I'll wait and see which way the line goes I
think it's going to go towards Kansas a little bit,

(39:44):
because I believe it was fourteen and a half yesterday
and you said it's thirteen and a half now, so
we've already lost a point. So if it can start
dipping a little bit more, I like it more. But
I take it at thirteen and a half. I don't care.
I think Texas Tech wins this one going away.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
What about a team total here with Tech Tech? Would
you get down with that?

Speaker 1 (40:01):
It's thirty six and a half, so it's a big number,
but they've just been so good right now, and Kansas's
defense just allows pretty much everyone to score it will Yeah, man.

Speaker 3 (40:11):
I think that's fine. Yeah, you know, if they're gonna
win by two touchdowns, I think they're gonna score way
more than thirty five. So uh. And the way they
the defense is really coming together, that front seven with
Bailey and Rodriguez the linebacker, holy crap, they look so
dominant right now. And Kansas is a good squad, but

(40:33):
I just I think they're like a C level team
in the P four right Like they're gonna enough to
make a bowl, but not to hang with the actual contenders.
And I think Texa contenders, So this one is kind
of easy for me. I'll take Tech, I'll lay the points,
and I don't even care if it goes out a
little bit more, although I do, of course prefer it
at thirteen and a half or under, but I think

(40:56):
I think it's gonna stay right in that range.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
Okay, Down on the South and Auburn, the Tigers are
four and a half point home dogs against the tenth
ran Georgia Bulldogs. The Dogs are coming off their first
cover of the season last week against Kentucky. Still haven't
necessarily looked the part, though, ranking outside of the top
sixty five in passing offense eighty six against the pass
on defense too. They do have those run stuffers up front.

(41:20):
They are using a committee to run the ball at
a pretty good clip as well. But I just honestly
think this offense kind of lacks some skill position talent
outside of Zacharie Branch coming over from USC. Auburn last
played in College Station, coming off a loss against the
Aggies to get to two and three ats. The wild
part about the Tigers I think is like they kind

(41:41):
of feel like the light.

Speaker 2 (41:42):
Beer version of the Bulldogs.

Speaker 1 (41:44):
Here, Bogs like stick with me, like athletic quarterback in
experienced quarterback, though not really the best passing of the
ball offense either one hundred and fourteenth in that they
can't really stop the pass either. Their secondary is pretty shoddy,
and they run the ball pretty well and they stop
the run pretty well. So Boggs, I think we really
have a Spider Man meme situation here that the books

(42:06):
are also seeing that as well. So what do you
think this line does by Saturday?

Speaker 3 (42:11):
I mean, I think it goes towards Georgia, right, And
I think it's because in the Kirby Smart era, they're
nine to one against Auburn. They've routinely thumped them. They
beat them by more than three and a half and
every single one of those wins. The only loss that
they had they got murdered, and that was when they
were ranked number two as well. Auburn took them down,
but that was in twenty seventeen, so that's a long

(42:33):
time ago. I believe that this Auburn roster is way
better than some of the recent struggles have shown us.
They haven't been producing up to their roster strength levels yet.
Oh you and A and M on the Road aren't
easy games, but they couldn't do anything against the used
defense and were even worse against the Aggies. The scheme
and the players, I feel like, specifically with the wide

(42:55):
receivers that they have on this roster and Singleton and Coleman,
that should be good enough to stay in this game,
but it hasn't. Auburn has been consistently inconsistent. I'm a
lean towards Georgia in this game because of the history
of this game and because I just we haven't seen
Jackson Arnold put it all together. Maybe being at home

(43:15):
here in a big game is where he does it,
but based on what we just haven't seen him do
that yet. So it's kind of it's the same way,
Like he could have that Lagway breakout that we saw
this week against Texas, But where's it coming from, right, Like,
at least Lagway comes in with a bye week, right,
where are they coming in from this at that angle?

(43:36):
I just don't see it. So I'm gonna lean towards
the Bulldogs here. This is just Kirby smartest beat them
into the dirt.

Speaker 2 (43:44):
Yeah, I don't hate to play.

Speaker 1 (43:45):
Would you take him ats or would you maybe tease
that down to get a two and a half or
even money line play it.

Speaker 3 (43:51):
I think they went by a score Okay, yeah, every
time they beat him. Every time they beat him, it's
been by way more than this, so I think that
trend just continues.

Speaker 1 (44:01):
We also have another night game in Baton Rouge with
the eleventh ranked LSU Tigers. They are currently eight and
a half nine and a half point home favorites against
the South Carolina game Cocks. This is a game between
two of the most underwhelming offenses given the expectations coming
into the season. South Carolina one and twenty seventh in
total offense under Lenora Sellers. LSU not much better here, man,

(44:24):
under Nuts eighty third right now in total offense, So
LSU they would have the edge on defense, though they're
rating out better in pass defense, rush defense, and total defense.
So Boggs, what are your thoughts on this game? I
think the preseason, like I would have been absolutely glued
to my TV for Nuts versus Sellers, But man, it's
been a pretty slow start for him both.

Speaker 3 (44:45):
Yeah, who has more to gain coming off by weeks here?

Speaker 5 (44:48):
Right?

Speaker 3 (44:48):
I think it's actually South Carolina because they've been so bad, right, Like,
I think LSU is a better team, and you'd like
to see this offense get rolling and get going. But
I think just overall, South Carolina has been bad, dude,
So both these teams going off by week should look better.
But I mean, you know, LSU's offense hasn't been good

(45:11):
and their defense did They did the bend but don't
break against Mississippi, didn't win them the game because their
offense couldn't get camera. They can't do anything. I think
durhams that game. I think he's supposed to be back
for this one, which should improve that run offense. But
you know, South Carolina hasn't done anything. Like their defense
is okay, but they've been getting a lot of penalties.

(45:35):
They're the fifth worst team in time of possession this season.
I mean, they're plus five on the turnovers, but they
can't run the ball. They're one hundred and twenty second
in rush offense. LS he was not better. They're one
hundred and nineteenth.

Speaker 1 (45:46):
As I'd say, they're both like bottom twenty in the
country right now.

Speaker 3 (45:49):
But as bad as LS has been, they're not as
bad as South Carolina. And I feel like it's more
one sided for South Carolina since they never have the
ball either, So I don't know. I think you want
to pass if you're South Carolina and you're not gonna
be able to against LSU. So I like the Tigers here.
I don't hate an underplay either, It's not my favorite.

(46:12):
With both teams coming off of bye, we should see
scripted drive score for both of these teams. You've had
two weeks to prepare, so at the end of the
first quarter of this game should be seven to seven
and giving us fourteen points already. So I might go
like first quarter over because you're both coming off by weeks.
You've schemed up this offensive game plan in the scripted

(46:32):
drive probably one or two, so you probably get a
couple cracks at it as well. So I think first
quarter over for both teams coming off of bye. After that,
I don't really know. I think I'm gonna lay the
points and take LSU just because South Carolina hasn't really
shown me anything.

Speaker 1 (46:46):
Yeah, especially on the road in Death Valley at Nike. Yeah,
it's gonna be bumping. I wish this total line was
a bit higher, Like if it was maybe at forty
seven and a half, I would consider going out on
the under because, like I'm with you out of the
scripted drives. I don't know where they move the chains
with because both these teams are absolutely.

Speaker 2 (47:04):
Garbage at running the ball.

Speaker 3 (47:06):
So I mean, I think that LSU, could, you know,
you give them a bye week. Look what the bye
week did for Florida, right, bring back a couple players too.
I think LSU is a much better offense than Florida,
So I think we could see that, will we? I
don't know, it's a good question, but so I think
I like the first quarter over after that, no, thanks,

(47:26):
pass on the rest.

Speaker 1 (47:28):
Let's go ahead and round out the program in Salt
Lake City, where the Utah Utes host the twenty first
ranked Arizona State sun Devils as three and a half
to five and a half point home favorites. ASU has
kept the train on the tracks after losing two Mississippi
State in Week two with three straight wins and covers
against Texas State, Baylor, and TCU. They're coming off the

(47:49):
buy here and they hope that that maybe can fix
their eighty ninth ranked passing offense their ninety six ranked
passing defense as well, trying to get those back in check.
At Utah got beat pretty badly in week five against
Texas Tech. But then they did go on the road
the next week they beat WVU, winning and covering forty
eight to fourteen. Devin dan Pierre kind of like a

(48:11):
Sam Levitt in this situation. Very mobile quarterback. He can
chuck the ball for days as well. So bogs two
good offenses, maybe a slightly better defense in Utah And
this is in Utah.

Speaker 2 (48:22):
So is that the play.

Speaker 3 (48:24):
Here is not my favorite game? This one feels a
little Spider Man Mimi as well. Right, yeah, yeah, both
you know, play good defense from the ball, can't pass.
Kind of the same deal here. So Kenny Dillingham has
voiced his frustrations with Arizona State this year. They've had
a couple close wins, but that went against Baylor. Baylor

(48:46):
had an eighty nine percent postgame win expectancy. They should
have won that game. Wow, Right, And they had another
tight one last week as well. I just don't think
that this is the same Sun Devils team that we
had last year. I think this is a wild team.
They have large differences in the pass defense versus a
run defense. They're ninety eighth against the pass, they're ninth
against the run. But it doesn't matter. If you're ninth

(49:08):
against the run, nobody has to run against you. You're ninety
eighth against the pass, everybody could pass against you. So
that has been rough so far for them. They've got
some opportunistic turnovers. They're plus five, but they were plus
three last week. So this game should be a tight,
down to the wire type of game. I'd like to
see the total expand to get out over fifty so

(49:29):
we can take the under. I think that is where
I would lean here. So I'm gonna sit and wait
and see which way this total goes, because I think
both these teams are going to want to run the
ball and they're going to want to play strong defense.
And Utah plays a little bit quicker of a pace
at forty eight, but ASU slows it down at eighty
two at an eighty second pace as well. Plus it's

(49:50):
a tight game at night, I think it's going to
be just a little bit. It's going to be specifically
slower moving if you're ASU to make sure you get
everything right with all that crowd noise. So I don't
maybe like a team total under for Arizona State would
be a little bit nicer of a play here. But
this is not my favorite game. I like the under,
but let's see what the line does.

Speaker 1 (50:10):
Yeah, ASU is tough because you look at their offense
and they're really Tyson Levitt specific. And then they got
for Leak Brown out there, who wasn't even supposed to
be the starter coming into this season and he's no Skataboo,
but he's been doing a fine job. He's been getting
you know, anywhere from fifteen to twenty totes a game
and doing a fine job with it. But definitely a
little bit of ways to go. I think they need
to find more playmakers out there.

Speaker 2 (50:32):
On the outside.

Speaker 1 (50:32):
They had a really good veteran tight end coming back
this season. He's done nothing either, So I want to
see more of those players involved, I think before I
get invested in Arizona State. But guys, that is going
to do it for us. On this Early Picks episode
of The Bank Pros College Football Show still to come
later this week and every week on the bank Pros
YouTube channel and audio feed, our picks and prediction show

(50:54):
with Rell Ferma, Junior, Bog's best bets and player props,
plus are parlay picks. Let us know in the comments
below your favorite Week seven Early picks and while you're here,
make sure you're smashing that like bund and subscribing to
the channel. If you're new for Scott Bogman, upset with Wilcock, take.

Speaker 2 (51:10):
Care of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

Speaker 5 (51:14):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on.

Speaker 3 (51:19):
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Speaker 5 (51:20):
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Speaker 2 (51:25):
Also subscribe to our YouTube channel

Speaker 5 (51:27):
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College Football Week 7 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 812)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 7 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 812)