College Football Week 8 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 823) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football
Show and it's official, folks for her halfway through the
twenty twenty five college football season, So let's turn things up, hoping.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
For a successful second half, starting in this episode with
our week eight early picks and line movement predictions. I'm
your host of Seth Wilcox sporting the Blue and White
today because I stand behind Penn State athletic director Pat
craft decision to fire.

Speaker 1 (00:27):
Head coach James Franklin. And am I just salty because
he killed the parlay once again against Northwestern? Perhaps does
that change anything we've witnessed over the past three weeks?
That's a negative ghost writer and inequally high spirits is
my co host, Texas longhornbacker Scott big time Bogman Scottie,
how are you after another wild weekend of college ball?
My friend Seth, what.

Speaker 3 (00:48):
A great weekend it was here in week seven? I
know not for everybody, but seven and three on my
show Picks, Let's go, it's a good week. The Longhorns
win and smoke Oklahoma. Been over seven hundred and fifty
days since Oklahoma last quarter a touchdown against the Longhorns
and they're gonna have to wait another three to sixty

(01:10):
plus to get there, so not gonna be anytime soon.
We're gonna get over quads there against the Sooners. The
Steelers went on Sunday. So as long as my Monday
night card looks good, all my bets got my parlay too,
my second parlay and it's those bigger odds this time.
Treill got his too, so good week for the Parlay

(01:32):
Show as well. So yeah, man, I'm feeling pretty good.
So ready to be humbled again, I'll tell you that much.
So seeing the field with confidence right now, which is.

Speaker 4 (01:41):
Not always the best thing. You know, sports will humble you.
But I like where we're at.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
Yeah, we're just a Penn State team total over from
getting a three for three on the Parlay Show, so
of course gonna come through for me. But that's Penn
State football, baby. And today's program does look like this.
We'll recap all the week seven action, the betting, the
betting followers, plus we'll give you an early handicap of
the top ten games for Week eight. As always, shout

(02:06):
to everyone who continues to make us a part of
their weekly rotation by tuning in either here on the
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(02:27):
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(02:50):
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So make sure you ring the bell so you can
be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim
your prize if you are that lucky winner. And before
we look ahead, let's look back at the week that
it was in college football Kannessas State. On Thursday night,
they upset Louisiana Tech thirty five to seven. Number twenty

(03:10):
four South Florida. They bet unbeaten North Texas sixty three
thirty six and really fun Friday night game number one
Ohio State. They win and cover against number seventeen Illinois
thirty five to sixteen. Colorado upsets number twenty two Iowa
State twenty four to seventeen. Number twelve Tennessee survives the
dead cap bounce thirty four to thirty one against Arkansas

(03:33):
Number nine. Texas Tech stays perfect forty two to fifteen
against Kansas number four Ole miss They survive at Washington
State in a nail byder twenty four twenty seven and
number seven Indiana they upset Oregon thirty to twenty seven.
Penn State loses twenty two to twenty one to Northwestern
and Happy Valley. They fire James Franklin. As a result,

(03:54):
Texas wins the Golden Hat Trophy once again twenty three
six over Atlholma there number eight Alabama. They win in
Columbia twenty seven to twenty four over Missouri and Georgia.
They get past Auburn here twenty to ten they stay
ranked in the country in the number five Texas A
and M. They run away from Florida thirty four to seventeen,
number eleven, LSU stands tall twenty ten against South Carolina,

(04:18):
and then Utah blows out the Sam Levitt list number
twenty one Arizona State sun devils forty two to ten.
So bogs. Before we get to the elephant in the
room and break down what the changes mean for the
Nitney Lions moving forward, let's talk about the rest of
the betting riders and followers across the nation for you
in week seven?

Speaker 3 (04:37):
Yeah, I mean, let's just find out where Wisconsin is
playing for the rest of the year and take the
team total under for the rest of time. Right Like
that one is paying off so well for me. But obviously,
Ohio State still looks really good. I mean, I thought
they were gonna chunk our Illinois under ooh we were
sweaty two point converse that one way the two point conversion,

(04:58):
and then they were driving at the end for nothing
in Ohio State didn't really seem to care, so didn't
like that. But I mean, Missouri looked good but just
couldn't pull it out at the end. There were a
couple of plays away from making a big upset Oklahoma.
I mean, look, you know, in this maybe we're just
continuing this Heisman curse of whoever is your number one odds?

(05:20):
Because Matier came back and looked god awful throwing the
ball and it wasn't really the ball and the thumb
surgery and all that it did hurt.

Speaker 4 (05:29):
It was bleeding.

Speaker 3 (05:30):
You could see him wiping it on his pants and
all of that, but the decisions with the ball were horrible.
Indiana going to Oregon, it beating the Ducks set was
wild to me. I did not see that coming. I
was one of the three that I missed this week
as well. I mean not only to win, but to

(05:51):
win by double digits going away as well. Like this
was just such a great, complete game from Indiana to
win their So obviously they're up in the number what
is it three spot now, right, so they've been great.
I'm done with Michigan, I can tell you that much
right now. After disappointing me against USC, Auburn is a

(06:13):
complete mess. They couldn't win at home against you know, look,
this is a Georgia is still really good roster. But
Georgia is not the Georgia that they have been in
the past. This was a winnable game for Auburn and
it didn't even look competitive in it. Texas Tech look great,
LSU still has no offense, so we're concerned about that,

(06:33):
and ASU is just a different team without Levitt. So
there's a couple of teams trending down, a couple of
teams trending up. But yeah, this week has a lot
of really good games. I think we have the ten
the best ten, but there's a couple other games that
are good here as well.

Speaker 4 (06:50):
So this is going to.

Speaker 3 (06:51):
Be another fun week set. And we're learning more and
more about these teams every week as we move forward here.

Speaker 1 (06:57):
Yeah, every single week we continue to gain more information
further our notebooks ask betters for what we can continue
to expect from some of these teams. Again, there's always
gonna be surprises bumps along the way, but seems like
we're starting as a unit to you know, see that
field pretty well. So excited about that, Boggs. I do
want to talk about Penn State though here as well.

(07:17):
You know, I put out about a six minute rant
on social media Saturday.

Speaker 3 (07:21):
Some people might have described it as unhinged or too fast.
But yeah, look, you were upset, you had things to say,
and you set them, so let's go.

Speaker 4 (07:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (07:31):
I mean, look, man, you can lose in a tight
spot to Oregon, right and I'm okay with what happened there.
You can go ahead and get upset by UCLA. You
know their trap games all the time. New Housle was
on a heater play calling you can't go home where.
I mean, I don't know if you saw the scenes

(07:51):
from outside Beaver Stadium, Bogs, but it was pretty much
a boycott, Like there was really nobody there. Usually the
front lawn in front of Beaver packed with cars, packed
with peel tailgating. It was a pretty nice day here
October weatherwise, and there was really nobody out there stadium
half empty paper bags being worn.

Speaker 4 (08:08):
So that just as damning as the result. Yes, like, yes,
the result was the final nail.

Speaker 3 (08:14):
But the people not showing up for a program that
is traditionally beloved by the entire town and most of
the state. I mean, you know, it is very very disappointing.
I think that played into the firing just as much
as the result. The result was just the final nail.

Speaker 1 (08:32):
Yeah, and I think when you go out and you
just completely kind of give up, right, That's kind of
how it felt. Felt like they just were like ready
to throw in the towel for Franklin and one of
those situations. You have muff punts, you have unnecessary roughnesses
on the kickoffs that don't make sense. You have unforced
errors in the red zone on the first drive when
you have two of the best running backs in the

(08:53):
country were forcing it on a corner route. So just
a lot of things that kind of led to this.
I mean, obviously it's going to be a long road
ahead for Penn State, like rest of the season betting wise,
are they a fade to you? Do you think they
maybe get a dead cat bounce here Ohio State in
just a couple of weeks and Indiana not too far
passed that as well.

Speaker 4 (09:14):
Who is our quarterback now that Drew allers con.

Speaker 1 (09:18):
He is a young buck. He is a young buck.
He has not played much seventeen Honestly, can't remember his
name Bogs because he hasn't played much action for us.

Speaker 3 (09:26):
That's the thing, right, Like, I don't want to fade
the defense because the defense is still really good, but
I think we're probably going to be looking at your
regular big ten games of the winter, the sevens to thirteen's,
the twenty one to tens, you know what I mean,
Because I just don't think we're going to see a

(09:46):
lot from this Penn State offense, at least passing the
ball moving forward. I mean, the pass catchers that you
got are probably the biggest reason why James Franklin lost
these games and ended up fired anyway, Right, so the
wide receivers aren't good.

Speaker 4 (09:59):
It's Ethan grunken Meyer.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
Drunk Meyer.

Speaker 4 (10:02):
Grunk Meyer.

Speaker 1 (10:03):
Yeah, thirteen career attempts coming into next week.

Speaker 4 (10:08):
He only played spatterings of games here.

Speaker 3 (10:11):
It looks like So, I mean, look, maybe the kid
surprises and he looks great like the kid from Pitt. Right,
We're gonna find out really quick because he's thrown right
into the fire. But I think I would expect unders.
I expect low scoring games, and the defense is still
good at Penn State, so that's expect movies.

Speaker 1 (10:30):
I don't know how good they are, honestly, Like, we
just let Northwestern run down our throat to close out
that game, you know, pick up three four yards every
single play, So.

Speaker 3 (10:40):
I don't know man like defensive performance rating is still
like thirtieth so far this year. Okay, but the roster
is still top fifteen.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
So for under on them to make a ball.

Speaker 4 (10:52):
Do you think, what do you how many wins do
you have right now? Let me look at the schedule.

Speaker 1 (10:55):
We have three wins right now. Rest of the schedule
looks like this.

Speaker 4 (11:00):
Three wins you get, I mean, you gotta make it.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
We have Iowa, we have Penn State, we have Indiana
at when we're at Iowa, so maybe maybe one win
there and then then we would have to and if
we don't get any wins there, we have to run
the table against Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rutgers.

Speaker 4 (11:16):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (11:17):
We might not be going bowling, man, we might not
be going bulling.

Speaker 3 (11:21):
I don't realized this is so bad. You're not beating
Iowa right at Iowa. Nope, not beating Ohio State, not
beating Indiana. So that's three weeks in a row. So
here the thing you could beat Iowa like, it's in
within the Roman possibility dead cat bounce maybe right yep.
Michigan State, you're beating Nebraska, Rutgers are legit questions right

(11:43):
now Nebraska is playing pretty well. I don't trust them
at all, so I would take Penn State in that game.
By the time you get to Rutgers, hopefully you're hitting
on all cylinders and you can make it. But you're
not beating Ohio State or Indiana for sure. So gotta
win three out of those four, and that's a tight window.

Speaker 4 (12:00):
It's tough.

Speaker 3 (12:00):
I still think they're gonna go, you know, like I
said to you yesterday, probably Texas versus Penn State and
the Music City bawl when it was supposed to be
the Natty. So yeah, look, if it's the Music City
ball seth and I are going to try to go yep,
all right, like five dollars tickets, all you gotta pay
for is a flight and then leave right after.

Speaker 4 (12:18):
I'm fine with that.

Speaker 1 (12:20):
So Evan, it's what we do, uh, betting card two
and three for me on the weekend as well. So
like Penn State, we're gonna keep on swinging. Hopefully we
get a little dead cat bounce here and let's kick
it off in week eight and let's get underway with
a Friday night acc clash in South Beach with the
number two Miami Hurricanes. They're hosting the Louisville Cardinals as
twelve and a half to thirteen and a half point

(12:41):
favors Miami coming off the bye. Here, they're currently five
and oh straight up four and one ATS, and it's
really been this top ten scoring defense led by Reuben
Bain Junior, a key messador on that defensive front leading
the way. Carson Beckett quarterback. He's really returned to form
as well. He leads the AEC and completion percentage and
pass or efficiency rating. Louisville the come in off the

(13:03):
buy as well, four and one straight up, but just
one in four ATS this season under Jeff brom transfer
quarterback Miller Moss, he's been okay getting the Cardinals to
the twenty first ranked passing offense, but their defense is
also very much improved here, specifically against the pass. So Boggs,
this has been a fairly contested, high scoring rivalry. What

(13:23):
do you think we'll see this year? And where do
you think this line moves as well?

Speaker 4 (13:27):
I think Miami is a wagon. What do you say
it's at right now?

Speaker 1 (13:30):
Right now? You are anywhere from twelve and a half
to thirteen and a half.

Speaker 3 (13:34):
Yeah, so it's moved towards Louisville a little bit in
some spots, because I saw it thirteen and a half
last night, and it looks like tickets were on Louisville,
but cash was on Miami. But I'm on the Miami
side here.

Speaker 4 (13:46):
I probably I might like the under a.

Speaker 3 (13:48):
Little more because both these teams played a slow pace
eighty ninth for Louisville, one hundred and twenty eighth for Miami.
But the biggest difference in this game is along the
defensive line. As you mentioned, Bain and Door are incredible,
right and this season the offensive line for Louisville has
been bad. They're one hundred and fifth in pass blocking grade.
There are one hundred and twelfth and sacks allowed per

(14:10):
game right now at two point six per game right now,
Miami's getting two point four. They play the run well,
and I think if you start hitting Miller Moss, he'll
start coughing the ball up.

Speaker 4 (14:21):
Making bad decisions.

Speaker 3 (14:22):
And I think at home on a Friday night for Miami,
that's just what it's gonna be. I think Miami is
gonna get to Miller Moss, hit him, he's gonna panic,
He's gonna start throwing interceptions. And Miami starts to.

Speaker 4 (14:33):
Walk away with it.

Speaker 3 (14:34):
So I'm gonna be on the Hurricanes here. Louisville's a
good team, but I don't think they're in the Cane
zip code this year, so Mike lean is going to
be towards Miami. But I hope it, like, let's hope
it just comes down. I would like it to come
down as long as it stays under two touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (14:47):
Though.

Speaker 3 (14:48):
I think I'm gonna be on the Miami side here
in on the under fifty three and a half here,
because both these teams played a slow rate and I
just don't think Louisville is gonna score many points here.

Speaker 1 (14:58):
Okay, if you want something maybe in the futures market
as well, for a Miami player, would you be interested in,
like Ruben Bain maybe to be the first overall draft pick.
He's starting to get some buzz there. I don't see
the odds currently here in Pennsylvania, we don't have draft Dodds,
So is that something if you got.

Speaker 4 (15:15):
To the number to early for it's too early for that.
Like if you want to get to.

Speaker 1 (15:19):
The last last team right now, and they're a defensive
minded head coach.

Speaker 3 (15:23):
I can tell you right now, said they will take
Tys Simpson if he comes out. If the draft was
today and they had to make a pick, it's ty Simpson.
They have Will McDonald Jermaine Johnson on the on the
line here. Uh, they would have to have a quarterback
because field sucks, or offensive lineman because your boy Fashnu
is not that good.

Speaker 1 (15:42):
So I mean I resulting the wound.

Speaker 2 (15:46):
Friend.

Speaker 3 (15:46):
Sorry, sorry, sorry, but yeah, it's been it's been rough
there for them. But I think they would go for
a quarterback, so okay, I mean maybe maybe Tony for
Freshman of the year. Right, okay, but uh, nothing on
draft quite yet. Way too early for that.

Speaker 1 (15:59):
All right, Well, I'm gonna be up my eyes, Field,
because the future.

Speaker 3 (16:03):
Is trying to find something to keep you entertained. Seth,
I see where you're at.

Speaker 1 (16:06):
I get it exactly exactly. We got eyes on that baby.
The Big House will be bumping at noon on Saturday,
with the Wolverines hosting the Washington Huskies as four and
a half to five and a half point favorites. Washington
is five and one straight up three and three ats
this season, with their only outright loss coming to Ohio State.
They've also picked up two big ten wins since that loss,

(16:28):
failing to cover at Maryland and then beating Rutgers thirty
eight to nineteen last week at home. This is a
lethal top twenty offense in the country. They're led by
dole threat quarterback Demond Williams Junior and twenty twenty six
NFL draft prospects Joanah Coleman and wide receiver Denzel Boston. Plus,
Washington has a top ten ranked rushing defense to boot Michigan.

(16:49):
They come off their second loss this season, falling two
four and two straight up two and four ats as well.
The Wolverines are once again carried by their defense and
a top twenty range rushing offense. Washington won this game
twenty seven to seventeen last year in Seattle. So, Boggs,
were you surprised to see them catching over a field
goal here in and Arbor?

Speaker 4 (17:09):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (17:10):
I mean mainly because I've been so wrong about Michigan
this year, right, But after what we saw from Washington
and their comeback, I think Demon Williams is starting to
roll down hill and we just haven't seen Underwood.

Speaker 4 (17:21):
Hit that gear yet.

Speaker 3 (17:22):
Michigan also has a major question running back with Haynes
down as well. So with Demon Williams looking good, a
couple of the fact that don't put pressure on posting
quarterbacks and Washington doesn't stop the pass well in stats
or grade, they're eighty six in pass defense. My favorite
play here is the over right now, it's fifteen one
and a half. I think we're gonna take that, but
cash and tickets are on the over right now, so

(17:43):
it might start to expand Michigan stops the run well,
but USC showed us.

Speaker 4 (17:48):
That they will give up yards and points.

Speaker 3 (17:49):
Four hundred and eighty nine total yards against USC two
hundred and sixty five passing, two hundred and twenty four rushing,
and thirty one points my favorite bet, and it's probably
gonna stay this way. Right now, the Washington team total
is twenty two and a half. I didn't think they
easily can get to twenty four because I just don't
really like what Michigan is doing right now. And Demon

(18:10):
Williams is really It seemed like in that second half
he started to hit a new gear, so I think
it's starting to click for him. That was a road game.
This is a road game, and I'm pretty excited about
the Washington offense. Once we get going, because speak of
the draft man Denzel Boston is so good and he
made a disgusting catch last week, so let's see more

(18:32):
of that.

Speaker 1 (18:33):
Yeah, I almost was leaning to the under again, but
I think maybe that's a little recncy buyas just because
I was on that Michigan under last week. And this
is Justice Haynes for Michigan versus Washington, who has Jonah Coleman,
like what I would say, two of the top five
running backs in the country right now. So I don't know.
It's a tough one. I'm really really interested in it.

(18:54):
I can tell you one thing for sure, though, Bobbin,
neither one of us are gonna lay the points with
Michigan here.

Speaker 4 (18:58):
Yeah, zero chance not taking Michigan again. Now.

Speaker 3 (19:02):
I think they're four and two against the spread and
the two they lost with the ones I took, So
pass on Michigan.

Speaker 1 (19:08):
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Speaker 1 (20:45):
Virginia, It's a top twenty five game in the Music City,
with the seventeenth ranked Vanderbilt Commodore sitting as two and
a half point home favorites against the tenth ranked LSU Tigers.
LSU comes off a home win twenty to ten against
South Carolina, but it's just three and three ats, failing
to cover against the likes of Old Miss, Southeast Louisiana

(21:07):
and LA Tech. The Tigers rely on this bend, don't
break type of top five scoring defense, but continues to
struggle on offense, ranking forty eighth in passing with nuss
still leading the SEC in pass attempts, though, and one
hundred and thirteenth in rushing. Van Dey is four and
two ats. They failed to cover in two straight games
against Utah State and Alabama. Still they're coming off the

(21:29):
buye here. They have a top ten scoring offense and
our thirty second in total defense. Between Pavey under center,
Cedric Alexander in the backfield, plus one of the nation's
top tight ends, Eli Stowers. This is maybe the most
loaded Vandy team in my lifetime. But do they still
warn't being favored in this matchup against LSU Bogman.

Speaker 3 (21:48):
No, not at all, And I am pretty surprised by this,
and I cannot wait for the fight with Terrell on
Wednesday here. But look, I think that LSU is more
than a field goal better than Vandy. But Vandy has
looked strong against everyone but Alabama. If I'm looking for
cracks here for Vandy, I think it's the passing offense,

(22:09):
right Like I think they're just a little vulnerable. And
I also like Nussmeyer, I don't know that he can
take advantage of this pass defense either. But nuts is
only mass two hundred and fifty yards twice this season.
He's throwing five picks already.

Speaker 1 (22:26):
Insane.

Speaker 3 (22:27):
I kind of like the under here NUS looks rough.
The LSU run offense has been non existent. LSU is
one of the best defenses in the country as well. Like,
they are not working on offense right now, but they
are definitely working on defense. Vandy didn't score in the
second half against Bama. I definitely think LSU was overrated

(22:48):
going into the year, and they're probably still overrated right
but so is Vandy. I think Vandy's way overrated right now.
I think people are excited for this story. This is
a good team. Vandy might beat Texas right like that.
They're in that range of like, you're a really good
SEC team. I just don't know if you're competing with
the upper echelon of the SEC. I don't consider South

(23:08):
Carolina in there either, who they have smoked. I think
LSU is I think once LSU's offense gets rolling, they're
a very dangerous team. But that's also if the offense
gets rolling. So let's just stay away from the sides
in this game, Seth and let's take the under. Yeah,
it's already kind of low forty eight and a half,
but I like the under in this one. LSU has

(23:30):
been holding everybody. They haven't been moving the ball well either,
so I mean, maybe this is a game I'm just
reading wrong.

Speaker 4 (23:36):
I've been wrong on Bandy in.

Speaker 3 (23:38):
The past, but I'm not counting on LSU, so I'm
not taking aside here, even though I do think ls
wins this game. That is my heavy lean, which is
the only kind of lean that I have anyway, but
it's a lean that I have on LSU.

Speaker 4 (23:52):
But I love the under here.

Speaker 3 (23:54):
I just really like this LSU defense, and I don't
think that LSU has anything on offense. I think they
will control this game as well. So yeah, uh lean
towards the Tigers, But I love the under here.

Speaker 1 (24:06):
I think this is actually a really sharp play on
the under here, Boggan, because the only game for LSU
this season that has gone over fifty points, it's the
one against Southeast Louisiana, right like even Old Miss twenty
four to nineteen, that that's probably the best offense they
faced so far.

Speaker 3 (24:22):
So yeah, slow in pace to one hundred and eleventh
for LSU and one hundred and seventeenth for Vandy. You know,
they make a lot of checks both these teams pass
a lot, so that is like gets a little dicey.
Fifty six point one for Vandy and sixty percent for LSU,
But LSU passes because of the lack of a run game.
And King Durham was a little better last week, but

(24:43):
I mean they just don't have much there at all.
So yeah, I don't trust either one of these offenses.
Played a slow pace. Both defenses look strong.

Speaker 4 (24:52):
Let's go under favorite better of the week.

Speaker 1 (24:54):
I think right there, you heard it here first, So
tailor fade at your own your own risk, folks. Stuff.
We have the fourteenth ranked Oklahoma Sooners. They hope to
get back on the saddle this weekend as they traveled
to Columbia, where they're three and a half to four
and a half point road favorites depending where you look
against the South Carolina game Cocks. Oh you suffered its
first loss of the season at the hands of Texas

(25:15):
last week at the Cotton Bowl, and they are now
three and three ats as well. John Mattier we talked
about at the top, didn't really look right last week,
turning the ball over three times. The Sooners now ranked
seventieth in total offense. But Brett Venables defense is the
top ranked unit in total yards allowed and second in
scoring defense, allowing under ten points per game. Beamer ball Man,

(25:38):
I mean it's just seen flat lately. They have lost
and failed to cover in three of their last four
games to LSU Maszoo. Vandy didn't really feel like they
were in most of those games for a majority of
them as well. The offense has been stagnant under preseason
Heisman hopeful, with Nora Sellers ranking one hundredth in passing,
one hundred and twelfth in rushing, and one hundred and
fourth in scoring. Their defense is it's been okay as well,

(26:00):
ranking fiftieth in total defense bogs. With that said, is
this a bounce back spot for the Sooners? You think
it could be?

Speaker 3 (26:08):
South Carolina's bad Mattier played hurt last week and if
he's still going this week, he's clearly less than one
hundred percent. The ball didn't even look bad, but the
decision making was terrible, so maybe it's just knocking some
of the rust off here. Sellers has looked rough, and
Oklahoma's still one of the best defensive teams, so the
game cock should be relatively shut down in this one.

(26:29):
Let's go with the under again in this game the
game cox defense is given up thirty points once. That
was against Mandy when Sellers was hurt and they turned
the ball over four times, So that defense still played
well in that game because they were on the field
so much the twenty plus games. Sc has gave last
week twenty to LSU on the road else he was
coming off a bye, and they gave up twenty nine

(26:50):
at Miszoo when South Carolina had negative nine yards rushing.
But they haven't given up thirty points. These offenses are
so stunted. I see this game being seventeen to ten,
fourteen to ten, twenty one to ten. You know, even
twenty one seventeen gets us home because it's forty three

(27:11):
and a half. So uh yeah, man, I just don't
see how either of these offenses are scoring right now.
Maybe Matteer takes a big step up, But even if
he takes a big step up, South Carolina's defense has
been good, their offense has been bad. So again, I
like the under in this game. Another game where let's
just not mess with the side at all because it's
kind of close and take the total and go under.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
Would you feel comfortable with the Maybia South Carolina team
total under, just because I think if there is an improvement,
as you mentioned, it's probably Oklahoma. Like it feels like
South Carolina's kind of stuck in their ways right now,
and I don't think facing the best defense in the
country is going to help them.

Speaker 4 (27:46):
It might be real low.

Speaker 3 (27:48):
That's my only, like, my only caveat So let me
check and see where we can get this number.

Speaker 4 (27:56):
So I would imagine.

Speaker 1 (27:58):
It's probably around seventeen points or so. I if the
total at a hole is forty two, you got Oklahoma
favored by three and a half, I would think it's
probably around seventeen. Eighteen points is probably what it's. I
if I get the hook seventeen and a half, I
think I'll be on the under. Is that what it is?

Speaker 3 (28:13):
Great news it's eighteen and a half, So eighteen and
a half, I think I'm on the under with you
as well. Under eighteen and a half. My only slight
worry in this game is like, what if one of
these quarterbacks turns the ball over a ton? But even
then I still don't know that it matters because neither
offense has been pushing it.

Speaker 4 (28:32):
So if we can avoid the.

Speaker 3 (28:33):
Big turnovers, play a lot in the middle of the field,
obviously a lot of running from South Carolina. I don't know,
Oklahoma has not had a very good run game outside
of a tier.

Speaker 4 (28:43):
So yeah, I think I think the under.

Speaker 3 (28:46):
And if we find out that Hawkins is playing for
whatever reason because Matier looks so him another week, then
run and get the under.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
I will say to him. And Tier's turnovers. Last thing
on ou is like one of those was just like
a you know, end of the half yo loo ball.
The other one was a tip ball. So like, I
think I still trust Jeh Mattier more, at least more
than I do. Leonora sellers as well, So like I
wouldn't even mind maybe a little like, oh, you you know,
money line parlay with that team total under something like that.
We'll see, maybe that's parlay of the weeklyan. So yeah,

(29:16):
we'll touch on that later in the week with THRELLI
get his thoughts. Let's first get to Athens, where College
Game Day will be on the scene to see the
ninth rank Georgia Bulldogs. They are hosting the fifth ranked
and undefeated Almost Rebels as six and a half two
seven and a half point favorites. The Revs come off
a near upset against Washington State last week, and they
sit for into ATS this season, with their signature win

(29:38):
coming in Week five against LSU. Lane Kiffin he has
reopened the door now whether it could be quarterback Trinidad
Shambliss or Austin Simmons starting this game. Either way, this
is a top five total offense. They are led by
sophomore running back Kawan Lacey, who has had an SEC
high one hundred and twenty six carries on the season,
also in the Doke Walker Award. Can see right now

(30:01):
the Dogs. They come off their second straight win and
cover at Auburn last week to get to five and
one straight up two and four ats. Georgia is your
classic Jack of All Master of None program. They ranked
fiftieth in scoring offense nineteenth in scoring defense, but they
are playing at a substantially lower pace than Ole Miss.
So Boggs, we're flowing right around these key numbers right now.

(30:24):
Is this a spot to take some early action or
do you think maybe these lines hold throughout the week.

Speaker 3 (30:29):
I'm gonna stay the hell away from this one. I'll
tell you that, much like this game has been back
and forth in recent history with blowouts in the last
four straight. This game has been won by eighteen or
more points in last four straight games, heating back to
twenty twelve. But this will be the third year in
a row that they've played it, So I guess as
a favorite a home, I think that's right.

Speaker 4 (30:46):
They've been so up and down.

Speaker 3 (30:48):
I feel like the dogs have buckled down since that
Tennessee scare right, like they played ben but don't break
against Bama. They smoked Tennessee and they kept both Kentucky
and Auburn under fifteen points three hundred total yards. Ole
Miss couldn't cover against Kentucky, they barely did against ARCI.
They lost straight up to LSU and one by three.
As thirty point favorites last week against Washington State, Now

(31:11):
we can say that was a look ahead to Georgia.
I think it's pretty obvious that it was. But they
drove down the field, they just didn't score. And Georgia's
defense has played much better recently, so I will lean
on the Georgia side here. But I don't like this number.
I think it's gonna come back towards Old Miss, and
I would rather get it at three and a half

(31:31):
or four and a half than have to take it
at anything over five. But again, I will not be
betting any of my hard earned American dollars on this game.
Maybe some players in this game, but not on this game.
So this one is just gonna be too tight and weird.
It'll probably end up in a blowout one way or
the other, but I don't know which way it goes.
My guess would be towards Georgia.

Speaker 1 (31:52):
Yeah, I should have gone on the Georgia money line
last week and found a way to drink that juice
and pay for it. I was just worried because their
offensive lineman. You know, they had two of them who
were not expected to play in that game. I'm not
sure if they did or not, but I mean they
held serf, so that was probably the way to go
last week, was betting the dog's money line against Auburn.
But yeah, I just won't be getting invested here, and

(32:14):
like I would like to bet the under too, just
you know, potentially. But at the same time, you know
how Lane Kiffin gets bro like. He is a fast
paced play caller and it feels like Ole miss even
though they were relying on the run a lot more
this season that they could still blow up at any minute.

Speaker 3 (32:29):
Yeah, I mean this, I don't I don't trust any
part of this game.

Speaker 4 (32:33):
That's really it.

Speaker 3 (32:34):
Like, yeah, oh, miss just they chunk a game. I
thought that was Kentucky right where. They blew that game
at the end of the cover at least, but Washington
State at home right now, they got to go on
the road and play Georgia.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
I just they're due for a lot. Eventually, they're due.

Speaker 3 (32:51):
For a lot, are They're good for one weird one
out of nowhere and this isn't even weird.

Speaker 4 (32:56):
So yeah, I'm gonna take the dogs.

Speaker 1 (32:58):
At four pm Eastern time, the numbers seven Texas Tech
Red Raiders in Vague, Tempe. They are ten and a
half two twelve and a half point favorites against the
Arizona State Sun Devils. Tech is now just one of
two undefeated teams ats this season. Their head coach Joey Maguire.
He has put big money to good use with this
team ranked second in scoring offense, first in total offense.

(33:21):
They're also six in scoring defense ninth in total defense.
So very much a top ten team. Not much to
nitpick about them. They are one hundred and thirty first
in penalties per game. Need to clean that up. They
have only had the eighty ninth toughest strength of schedule
as well, the authority Pete Famill. He is reporting that
quarterback Baron Morton is day to day after leaving the

(33:41):
game against Kansas last weekend. ASU. Meanwhile, they got killed
last week at Utah without Sam Levitt. He is currently
day to day as well being limited at practice all
last week. They have Jeff Simms under center here potentially,
which could hamper their offenses. Already ranked outside the top
seventy in passing, they're struggling to move the ball, specifically

(34:02):
on third down, so bogs without us knowing or the
books even knowing the full status of these qbs, is
there any early line value out there potentially?

Speaker 3 (34:11):
I mean, I'm just gonna continue to back Texas Tech,
right like, even if Baron Morton doesn't play. Will Ham
has proved himself twice already this year. You know, he
came in, he looked kind of shaky against Kansas right
after Morton went down. Didn't look good throwing the ball,
but he ran it well. And when all you have
to do is turn around to hand the ball to
Cameron Dickie and he's picking up fifteen yards a chunk.

(34:33):
It doesn't matter who your quarterback is. Two hundred and
sixty three yards and two scores on twenty one carries.
Just an incredible run for him and Will Hammond ran
for sixty one yards and two touchdowns.

Speaker 4 (34:47):
Tech will win by.

Speaker 3 (34:47):
Way more than eleven and a half if there's no Levitt,
and I think they might do that even if he
does play. So Tech is the number one run dy
in the country. ASU will want to run it with Sims.
If Levitt was one hundred percent, I might take the
Devils with the points at home. But this is a
sloppy team right now. This is a hurt team right now.
I just don't like what the Devils are doing right now,

(35:10):
and this is disappointing. This was my pick to win
the Big Twelve before the season started.

Speaker 4 (35:14):
I thought I had a playoff Jordan Sam Levitt Man.

Speaker 1 (35:17):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (35:17):
I thought it was going to take a little bit
longer for everything to jel it at Texas Tech.

Speaker 4 (35:21):
But it has not.

Speaker 3 (35:22):
They went into Utah and smacked them around. They're beating
the breaks off of everybody right now, and specifically, if
there is no Sam Levitt.

Speaker 4 (35:30):
I think they're just going to continue this trend. This
is a weird place to play it.

Speaker 3 (35:33):
At any point in ASU, it's probably gonna be pretty hot.
But I just the Red Raiders are are destroying everybody
right now, and I can't come off of that.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
Yeah, I get it, man, they've been printing money for people.
And I mean, shout to my voy Dickie. Man, he
wasn't supposed to be the starter. It was Quentin Joyner
if you remember, coming over from US this season. He
got hurt before. I think it was an acl tair
potentially in the preseason that put him out. And I mean,
Dicky's been unbelievable. He's added a really, really nice element
to this team that already had a great pass catcher.

(36:03):
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The thirteenth rank Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They have their

(36:50):
CFP hopes on the line Saturday at seven thirty pm
Eastern Time in South Bend, as they're laying seven and
a half to eight and a half points against the
twentieth rank USC T Trojans. Lincoln Riley's team. As always
their high flying offense, they rank third in scoring, second
in total yards as well three to three ats, coming
off a win and a cover against Michigan, a team

(37:12):
that struggles to air the ball out. That's something that
Notre Dame has had a lot of success doing this season,
actually averaging the nineteenth most passing yards per game. Like USC,
the Irish have an elite offense led by an improving
quarterback a couple stud running backs, but they struggle on defense,
particularly through the air, So Boggs, this feels like a

(37:32):
really obvious overplay. But sixty one points is a big number.
Any interest there or some other market for this game.

Speaker 3 (37:39):
Hi, USC, We've discussed the Notre Dame schedule or lack thereof,
and the Irish have to win this game if they
have a shred of a chance to make the tourney.
But in US he did lose their leading rusher for
at least a month. But we just saw USC take
Michigan to the woodshed. Backup running back King Miller went

(38:00):
eighteen for one fifty eight in a score. Makaylea Lemon
has the second best odds to win the Ballettnikoff, behind
Jeremiah Smith. Right now, USC just seems unstoppable on offense,
and they've played the run very well, rush the passer
well enough to make up for any issues that they
had in the secondary so far this year.

Speaker 4 (38:16):
So give me USC.

Speaker 3 (38:18):
I'll take the points, but I'm also gonna sprinkle on
the money line as well. I think USC is an
underrated team right now. I didn't expect them to hold
up against Michigan at they were at home in that game.
I didn't expect them to because they got beat so
bad on the ground last year. I didn't think that
was they were gonna be able to stop Michigan again,
and they were, So I understand Notre Dame is throwing

(38:38):
the ball, okay, but Jeremiah Love and Uh Price, those
are your main guys. They're running still over fifty percent
clip and this run d has been pretty good for
USC beat Michigan yesterday. This is a taller task, of course,
but I kind of like USC with the points and
I might take them on the money line as well.

Speaker 1 (38:57):
Yeah, this is a tough one for me. Like, I
think there is some value though with USC based on
what we saw last week, and we'd like to see
a Notre Dame pick it up here. But you know me, Bogs,
I mean, I lost freaking eight units right off the
rip this season on Notre Dame sign getting back invested there.

Speaker 4 (39:13):
And they're so frustrating.

Speaker 1 (39:15):
Yeah, this is it for him too, dude, Like this
is really it. So we'll see what happens there. Up
in South Bend. Also in primetime is the third Saturday
in October, a rivalry matchup between the eleventh ranked Tennessee
Volunteers and the six ranked Crimson Tide. Tennessee comes off
back to back one score wins and failed to cover
against SEC opponents like Arkansas and Mississippi State. They're now

(39:39):
three and three ATS and haven't covered since their overtime
loss to Georgia. Still they're scoring at a high clip.
They lead the country in points per game with forty
eight point two, but their defense is outside of the
top one hundred in points and total yards allowed. Bama.
They have been on a war path since being upset
by Florida State in Week one, winning five straight covering

(40:00):
in four or five as well. These wins include three
ranked wins at Georgia, versus Vanderbilt and in Miszoo. Their
quarterback Tys Simpson. Boggs mentioned him early, maybe as a
potential first round pick, number one overall type of guy.
He is in the Heisman favorites right now, carrying this
offense with his arm. The pass defense has also been sensational,
but their rushing defense did enough to shut down the

(40:23):
number one team on the ground last week in Miszoo.
Bama has won this game in eight of their last ten,
but lost two of the last three, with both those
games coming in Knoxville. So Boggs. When it comes to
Tennessee here, do you think they trimp up Bama once again,
this time in Tuscaloosa.

Speaker 4 (40:39):
I like the team total over in this game here.

Speaker 3 (40:42):
Bama hasn't quite figured out the run game, but they
won't need it against Tennessee this week.

Speaker 4 (40:47):
I do think that that will eventually haunt them, but
not this week.

Speaker 3 (40:49):
The balls have rushed to pass a well, but if
you give a quarterback time against them like the Georgia
Bulldogs did, your wide receivers are gonna dust this secondary.

Speaker 4 (40:58):
And I think that's definitely going to happen.

Speaker 3 (41:00):
Obama has given up some sacks for to Vandy a
couple last week, but they won both those games and
Uga only got them once. Ryan Williams didn't even have
a catch last week, and the run game is starting
to turn a little.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
Yeah, he has dropping the ball all the time too, dude.

Speaker 3 (41:18):
I think he might be playing hurt. So we'll see
what's going on with Ryan Williams, but I don't know
if they need him either. Tennessee is a very strong squad,
but they blew their chance against Georgia. They played a
one score game against Archie and Mississippi State Mississippi State
was just under four hundred yards and scored thirty four
points against them. Arkie had just under five hundred yards

(41:38):
and put up thirty one against them. Bama should control
the clock. They're going to play better in the secondary
than the balls. But the spread, the spread is a
little big for me. You said it's eight and a half.

Speaker 1 (41:49):
Right now, all the way up to nine and a
half too, nine and a half.

Speaker 3 (41:53):
Man, I do think Bama wins, but let's just go
with the team total currently. It was set under thirty
four and a half last night. Even if it goes
up to thirty five and a half, I just think
Bama scores. I think that's the thing. If Tennessee can
get to ty Simpson, then they will have a chance
in this game. I don't think they're going to, So
give me the Bama team total over here. And I

(42:13):
really don't like this creeping towards Bama as well. This
might get up to double digits. I don't like it.
So yeah, just stick with the team total here. I
don't like this line.

Speaker 1 (42:24):
It's funny how things can change a couple weeks ago
before these pretty bad games for Tennessee. If you would
have told me I could get them nine and a
half point dogs against Alabama, I would have been all
over it. And now it's like, I don't know, they
just it feels like two teams kind of trending in
different directions. I do trust Tennessee's offense, like I might
just lay the points here and get in on a

(42:45):
total if I can get it, you know, creeping under
sixty points. I don't think I want to lay sixty
And I'd have to maybe look back at some game
trends to see where this lies. But I'll do some
more you know, recon before Wednesday's show with Terrell and
see what we can scoop up there. But I expect
a lot of points in this one, especially in Tuscaloosa here.
So I don't know if we've talked about a three
and three team more this year than the Auburn Tigers,

(43:06):
who are hosting the Missouri Tigers at seven to forty
five Eastern time Saturday night. And this is a game
we might want to get down early on because you
can actually find this line anywhere from one and a
half points in favor of Auburn all the way down
to pick them, depending where you're looking and it was
the same old story last week for Auburn, right they
couldn't throw the ball with quarterback Jackson Arnold when needed

(43:27):
against Georgia, now ranking one hundred and twenty first in
passing offense. Missouri meanwhile is slightly above average in passing
offense under Bo Papuola, but they are top six on
the ground as well with Doke Walker Award favorite Ahmad
Hardy in the backfield. They also have the second ranked
total defense and are explosive, ranking third and ten plus
yards plays compared to Auburn, who is one hundred and

(43:49):
twenty first in that metric. So Boggs, do we jump
on Miszoo while they're a dog right now? Or is
this potential letdown spot after that close one against Alabama?
Because I feel like I want to lay the points
here with Maszoo and and come in as an underdog.
But I just don't know.

Speaker 3 (44:04):
Your boy has two tickets on the Tigers, Missouri in
the Tiger Ball already. Like I looked at this and
I was like, Okay, something's wrong here. Let me let
me go tell people they have this line wrong. And
then I woke up today and it's still the same
incorrect line. I don't understand why Auburn is favored. They're

(44:25):
at home, they have stopped the run. Well, so those
are that's why. Like I can say, I don't know why.
That's why, but.

Speaker 1 (44:32):
They gave up.

Speaker 3 (44:32):
They were gashed by A and M for two hundred
and seven. The Georgia Bulldogs don't have a run game
this year. Oh you Baylor are both pass heavy teams.
I think Missouri is going to be able to run
the ball effectively. I think MISSOO should be a touchdown favorite,
or at least a field goal favorite in this game.
Auburn has no run game. Jackson Arnold is everything and

(44:54):
he's starting to take a beating this year. As long
as Massoo doesn't let Bama beat them twice like we've
seen some teams do this year, this should be an
easy win for them. I know jord and Hare can
get weird in a night game, but it didn't last week,
and they're not gonna get a crowd like they had
last week.

Speaker 4 (45:12):
So wrong team is favored.

Speaker 3 (45:13):
Here, Give me Missouri and take these points, take the points,
take the money line, and take whatever you want.

Speaker 4 (45:19):
I like Missouri here big.

Speaker 1 (45:21):
Okay, Yeah, I think I'll be riding with that as well.
And do you think it's now? You think it's now,
You think this is number is not gonna last? Probably think, ok,
there's probably gonna be a lot of money coming in
on the zoo.

Speaker 3 (45:30):
I mean, yeah, the cash is overwhelmingly in Missoo's favor.
And by the way, I think this has flipped because
now I'm seeing it as Missoo minus one and a half.
Missoo is minus one and a half everywhere. So it's
too late now. But if you can get them under
a field goal, do it, take them on the money

(45:50):
line whatever like. So it is too late, but I
definitely have them at plus one and a half on
a couple of tickets already. I didn't get this one
at all, and the market is also not understanding it.

Speaker 1 (46:01):
Yeah, very very interesting there, I'm you know, this is
why you gotta be on top of things. It's why
you gotta be connecting with bogs in the discord and
over on social media as well. So mazoo, yeah, yeah,
pretty much everywhere. I'm seeing too minus one and a
half now, So apology is about the inaccurate number. I
just pulled that earlier. This I mean this.

Speaker 3 (46:19):
You pulled us fifteen minutes ago and it switched. Uh,
well right before we start. I did put my bets
on there, so maybe maybe that goes, but I don't.

Speaker 1 (46:27):
Think moving the line, baby big money. Let's round out
the program with a top twenty five in state rivalry
game with the number twenty three UTAI Utes traveling to
Provo as three and a half point favorites against the
number fifteen BYU Cougars. We've been following this Utah team

(46:48):
pretty closely since the preseason because of Terrell's future play
on them. He loves Devin dan Pierre. He's been leading
them to the sixteenth ranked scoring offense. They also have
a top twenty total defense as well. The Utes are
five I haven't won ats and straight up their only
loss and fail to cover coming against that Texas tech
wagon by Use, a team meanwhile that we've yet to

(47:08):
handicap this year, coming in six to zero straight up
four and two ats with some close big twelve wins
coming in Boulder and Tucson. No more Jake Retsaw for
them at quarterback. Instead, it's Bear vack in Meyer. He
is combined for fifteen touchdowns three interceptions, hearing a little
bit of rumbles a Baptis quarterback situation out there right now,

(47:28):
so Bogs, maybe you can shed a little light on that.
But they also have their lead running back LJ. Martin,
who is currently ahead of the conference right now in rushing,
giving the Kuges a top eleven ranked rushing offense to
go with their top thirteen scoring defense. Bogman, this is
a really tough one to get a read on, considering
both programs have faced fairly light schedules to this point.
So any thoughts on the line or game itself.

Speaker 4 (47:51):
I hate this game. You know what they call this one?
The Holy War?

Speaker 3 (47:55):
Yes, yes, uh look, I hate this one. I'm gonna
lead towards Utah. I don't think BYU has played anyone
as you alluded to Portland State, Stanford, ECU, Colorado in
the middle of the QB musical chairs and they barely
won that one WVU at home and then Arizona on
the road. Utah is the same deal, right. The only
real competition that they have had was Texas Tech, who

(48:17):
ran them down at home, and Arizona State without the
quarterback late in the week.

Speaker 4 (48:22):
Yep, right, they went on the road and.

Speaker 3 (48:25):
Beat WVU forty eight to fourteen. I think dam Pier
gets it done in this one. I might wait and see,
because what did we say the line is? Is it
still three and a half? Yeah?

Speaker 1 (48:35):
I mean a less things have flipped again. On mean
if we're looking at three and a half three and
a half, yep.

Speaker 3 (48:39):
No, I'm still seeing three and a half. I might
wait and see if we can get that hooked down,
or I might just the way the money is going,
it's all towards Utah right now, so I might just
wait and take an alt line on this one. But
I don't know that I really trust either one of
these teams, so I don't think i'd want to bet
on either of them. BP shows a slight lean towards

(49:01):
the over. It's a low total of forty seven and
a half. Maybe I like that. Maybe this game gets
a little shootouty, but I don't think there will be
any issues with Byu and bear Bach. Marie through three
touchdowns last week, so I think that's where they stick.
I just really don't like this game, so I'm not
gonna bet it. So lean Utah, but stay away, all.

Speaker 1 (49:20):
Right, Well that's gonna do it for us folks. On
this early Picks episode of the Betting Pros College Football Show,
still to come later this week and every week right
here on the bank Pros YouTube channel and the audio
feed our picks and prediction show with Trell Furman, Junior
Bog's best bets and our parlay picks. Let us know
down in the comments below your favorite week seven picks,
and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like

(49:42):
butt and subscribing to the channel. If you're new for
Scott big Time Bogman, I've set with Wilcock take care
of y'all.

Speaker 6 (49:48):
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College Football Week 8 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 823)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 8 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 823)