November 17, 2025 • 31 mins
Ready to dominate your Week 12 NFL bets? Joe Pisapia and Andrew Erickson are here to give you the latest insights! From the best over/under plays to which spreads have value, we’ve got you covered. Get set to boost your bankroll this week!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Bills @ Texans - 0:02:06
Jets @ Baltimore - 0:04:12
Giants @ Lions - 0:05:58
Steelers @ Bears - 0:07:52
Hard Rock Bet - 0:09:46
Patriots @ Bengals - 0:11:03
Vikings @ Packers - 0:13:11
Colts @ Chiefs - 0:14:55
Jaguars @ Cardinals - 0:17:21
Seahawks @ Titans - 0:18:40
Browns @ Raiders - 0:20:56
Eagles @ Cowboys - 0:22:07
Falcons @ Saints - 0:23:51
BettingPros App - 0:25:55
Buccaneers @ Rams - 0:26:11
Panthers @ 49ers - 0:29:04
Outro - 0:30:35
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bet, says me. Joey p Joe p z A
Pia And this is bp NFL Andrew ericson the Undertaker
here with me on a lovely Monday morning after a
whacky and wild week eleven. All the stars, well, they
didn't show up in the sky this weekend. No now,
maybe except for Josh Allen, but the Lamar Jackson's, the
(00:22):
big names. They didn't really do what they were supposed
to do. But we had some crazy performances from some
guys off waiver wires and fantasy, and of course some
guys that really had impacts on totals and some prop
numbers that were just out of this world. Somewhere, somehow,
Jacoby Brissett is still completing a pass somehow at this
(00:42):
very moment. Here Andrew Rickson biggest takeaway for Week eleven,
what was it?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yeah, I was telling you before we started recording, I
was kicking myself after benching Sean Tucker.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
But then I realized that there Michael.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Wilson over Sean Tucker, and I think that it was
point five points so tech that did make the wrong decision.
Kasehawn Tucker was the RB one on the week. Michael
Wilson was right there as the wide receiver two on
the week. So didn't end up meaning or costing me anything.
But yeah, a while and wacky week, and I'm ready
to break it down here for Week twelve.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Yeah, my favorite bet of the week was the under
and Davante Adams like it was like sixty something receiving
yards and I was like, he's never gonna get there.
He's only gotten there twice in the last eight weeks.
It was against the forty nine ers both times, and
he got one yard and it was for a touchdown,
and that's what he did, and instincts were right. I
wish I had laddered it the other way. Is it
still a ladder technically we're just walking down it. Is
that what it is? I don't know. I don't have
the ladder, something escalator. I don't know it's going down.
(01:34):
All I know it's the down elevator. It's the express.
I wish I had been able to bet it in
the opposite direction. That would have been fun. But we're
here to look ahead and shake off the duste Week
eleven look ahead to Week twelve, and we've got a
lot of games to get to make sure you download
the Betting Pros app to help you bet smarter, not harder,
use all the tools that we've got there. A prop
bet cheat sheet is obviously there. The Betting Pros app
(01:56):
is for iOS, is for Android. You could track your bets,
you could do everything there on the app. And he
got a seven day free trial with Betting Pros Premium
when you download it right now and use their promo
code Juice, so use that as well. All right, let's
kick things off here with Thursday night football at Buffalo
Bills back on track, huge win against the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers going against the Houston Texans. Texans are now five
and five, so the Texans you're getting. This one's a
(02:17):
very all over the place plus four and a half
I saw in one spot originally here for the Texans.
When you're looking here at the Buffalo Bills here, you're
getting plus one in some markets, which is a little weird.
Right now, when you're looking around here through some of
these lines to Andrew Erickson, you're getting the over and
the under here forty three and a half on the
over forty seven and a half on the under minus
(02:39):
one eighty five, with the Buffalo Bills on the money
line plus one seventy two. I mean, it's hard not
to like the early value here on the Buffalo Bills.
Am I right?
Speaker 3 (02:47):
I agree?
Speaker 2 (02:48):
I think that's the side that you want to be
on here. I think that we're going to probably see
more money moving on the Texans side when we get
the announcement that CD Strive will probably play in this
game again. He missed two weeks now with the concussion.
It is a short week playing on Thursday, but you're
assuming that after two miss games he probably cleared the
concussion protocol. And that's no lock, but I think that
that's probably what is going to end up happening in
(03:08):
this game. I think it's going to be probably more
of a defensive matchup. I know that the Buffalo Bills
defense is an absolute mess, but I don't have a
lot of faith.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
In the Texans offense. Again.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
They missed the Titans last week and they did not
look great moving the ball. They couldn't run the ball.
I mean, we got all the usage we could want
for what he marks and he was averaging under three
yards per carry, which has kind of been the theme.
I don't think it's all on him. The offensive line
just can't create open holes. Now does that change against
the Buffalo Bills? That just the gaps keep getting wider
and wider against opposing running backs. Maybe that's what we
see here, but I think for me it's I like
(03:39):
the game total going under here at forty three and
a half points. The Texans defense is so so good.
They're playing at.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Home, and we know Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Look, unless Josh Allen just puts on the Superman cape,
which he's definitely more than capable of doing, they're not
going to move the ball with these receivers. James Cook
has kind of been underwhelming the last couple of weeks
since he got hurt on the practice report a couple
of weeks ago. So I think for me it's I
like the game total kind of going under here at
Texans at home.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
I'm just keeping it safe. Give me the Bills plus
one like guy just to find it with for Josh
Allen to find a way to win this game and
be Superman. I think that's the best wage you're here.
Next up, we have our Sunday games kicking off with
pretty huge spread here minus fourteen point favorites are the
Baltimore Ravens against the New York Jets plus fourteen and
a half. Of my Jets have some extra rest, and
the Jets were you know, they lay it all out
(04:25):
there whenever they had left. They gave it a good
try on Thursday against the Newngland Patriots and they came
up short, which is what we would, you know, think
that they would. Obviously in this one, the Baltimore Ravens
big favorites. The question is too big of a number
with that fourteen or that fourteen with the hook that
you're finding over forty four and a half under forty
four and a half plus nine hundred for the amazing
(04:46):
upset and what an upset it would be. But Andrew
ericson the question here is is two touchdowns too much
or is it just right?
Speaker 2 (04:53):
Usually I shy away from these, especially with two touchdowns
as the spread, But I would take the Ravens here
playing two touchd They're playing at home, and as someone
that betted on the Jets against the Patriots, it was close,
like they had a chance to cover the thirteen and
a half or twelve and a half.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
It did spread.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
But as you're watching that game, you just see them
make dumb mistakes. I mean, the reason why they didn't
cover was because they had the botched fumble that turned
into a field goal and that end up being the
difference in the spread.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
So they're that's kind of drops by receivers and eighty
Mitchell drops and Mason Taylor tromp like fields did the
best he could, and I mean nobody helped him out.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
They're going to find a way to make sure the
Ravens cover this game, basically, is what I'm saying when
it comes to the New York Jets. So if I'm
going to pick a side, I will take the Ravens.
Who look, I think that we always have to have
in perspective that when any when we see these AFC
North battles, they're way more harder to score in the
Ravens offense. Again, I don't think it was like a
massive surprise to see them kind of struggle against the
(05:46):
Browns on the Browns at home. The Browns are a
great defense playing at home. I think that playing the
Jets back in the Ravens house, I think this suber
Lamar gets cooking here. I think it's probably blowout, so
I will take the Ravens land the points.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
All right, this should be a fun one. The course
field of the NFL. Well, the Detroit Lions didn't score
much last night because well, Dan Campbell just refuses to
kick field goals or punt or play defense. I mean's
just force down. Well, we get four of them, so
we're gonna use them all. That's how we go. It
strives to be crazy. This is why the Lions will
never win Super Bowl. Lions fans, I hate to tell
it to you, but you cannot You cannot function this way.
(06:19):
Take the points anyway. The New York Giants and Jameis
Winston are coming to town. So that's I mean, if
this isn't a fun game, I don't know what is
minus ten and a half here for Detroit at home.
Plus eleven and a half is the best number you're
getting on the Giants. Forty nine and a half for
the over, fifty for the under flat, and then plus
five fifty for the Giants on the money line. Look,
I know Winston and company came up a little short.
(06:40):
Ten seems about right here. I worry about garbage time
in this game, but to me, this is the classic
Detroit goes home gets right. We've already seen it happen
once this year where they look black lesser and they
came home and put a whooping on people. I think
this is what's gonna happen to that Giants secondary to
cancelop anybody that is this is a bad matchup for
the Giants. I'm more comfortable with this eleven or ten
(07:00):
and a half wherever we are, then, I am with
that number for the ravens of the Jets. To be
honest with you, yeah, you.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Want to buy the Lions after they lose a game,
especially when the yeah back, Yes, yes, this is one
of the popular betting trends is you bet on the
Lions that cover the spread after they lose a game.
They lost the game in prime time, the sky is falling.
But we just saw this play out. We saw a
team not score many points against the Philadelphia Eagles, and
then the next week, what do they do? They score
points on the New York Giants. This is exactly why
(07:27):
I like the Packers and Giants game going over the
total and despite I mean Jordan Love was hurt during
that game and they still score twenty seven points. So
the Giants defense is the gift that keeps on giving.
Detroit is going to take out all their rage on
the Giants defense, and whether it's Jamus, whether it's Jackson Dart,
whoever ends up playing in this game, I think they're
going to push the Lions to score points. So of
course I'm gonna like the over in the Dome, and
(07:48):
of course I like the Lions.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
You're coming off a loss, all right, so you and
I are in agreement on this one too. The Chicago
Bears are seven and three, look at them, top of
the division, rocking and rolling. Here they're two and a
half point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. May or may
not be with Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Warren wrist injury
for Aaron Rodgers, so Mason Rudolf could be that guy.
But again, I think we know what Mason Rudolph is,
(08:09):
and I still think this game is winnable for the Steelers.
They are at plus three of the over is forty
four and a half, the under forty five and a half,
plus one thirty eight the money line for the Steelers,
which is very tempting. I have to say. Obviously, the
health of those two players has a lot to do
with this one, and because it's a quarterback and the
lead running back. Unfortunately for me, this one's a stay away.
(08:29):
There's just too much unknown for me to invest in
it this time. But what do you think, Andrew, Well, I.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
Have a question for you.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
What is this line? If Rodgers is playing? Are the
Bears still favorite? In your opinion?
Speaker 1 (08:40):
They are, but I think it's close. It's like a
one and a half or a pick them, I think.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Okay, So I think that I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Then where the value is probably on the Steelers where
you like them on the money line as opposed to yeah,
laying the points with the Chicago Bears, who are now
more favorites because it's Mason Rudolph. But look, he can
move it. He can steady the ship essentially, that's what
he does. It's not like he's unfamiliar with Mike Tomlins
won playing games with Mason Rudolph as his quarterback, and
(09:07):
you know, underdogs, Mike Tomlin tends to be a good
spot for them and Caleb Williams, although he does play
a lot better at home. So that's kind of what
is kind of shying me away from the Pittsburgh two,
especially if they don't have Jalen Warren. So I think
for me as well, it's probably shy away.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
And look, you know, the Bears are like the cardiac kids.
I get it. They have all these fun victories they find,
you know, these amazingly lucky and inspirational moments where you
know things come together for them. But I don't even
count on that every week either. Steelers on the money
line is my lean right now, So I think I'm
gonna again. I just I want more information, and if
Rogers is out, I think that number grows. So if
(09:43):
I like that, I'm just gonna wait on it and
be a little bit more patient. All right, Before we
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Next up here we have the New England Patriots, our
beloved New England Patriots, taking on the Cincinnati Bengals, or
(11:10):
whatever's left to them. Jamar Chase probably gets suspended this
week for the spidding. Just saying it's probably. I don't
have if the appeal process, I don't know what they're
gonna do whatever. New England Patriots on the road are
six and a half point favorites. They've been great on
the road. Cincinnati plus seven and a half is the number.
Forty nine and a half for the over, fifteen and
a half for the under. You get plus twenty five
(11:31):
for the Bengals on the money line. I gotta say, Erickson,
I kind of like this right now, and I think
before any Jamar Chase news happens, I want to lock
in that six and a half with the Pats, You
know me, I want to lock in the Patriot number
with the Jets early this week because I thought it
was gonna grow and it did. And look, I also
got the Jets team total under just made it, just
made it by the skin of my chitty gin gin.
All right, So what are your thoughts here on the Pets.
(11:53):
Are you with me of the six and a half
or do you like the Bengals side.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I definitely do not like the Bengals side here.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
We've seen this this matchup before Patriots Week one of
last year, the bad Patriots win in.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
Bad painetti Bengals with Joe.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Burrow in Cincinnati, So I think that this is going
to be another w for the Patriots. We talked about
how good they've been against the spread on the road
this season, so even though it is six points, it
feels like a lot. They've covered this number in a
lot of road games this season against equally as bad teams,
So they take care of business against bad teams. And
I think that stylistically X and O's wise, if you
take Jamar Chase out of this game for the Bengals,
(12:28):
the matchup becomes so brutal for Cincinnati because then you
can put Christian Zales Ontie Higgins, lock him down and
make guys like Yoshi vas and all these other ancillary
pieces like the Bengals tight ends. They have to then
beat the Patriots, and we know what the Patriot can
do best is stop the run. So I think that
puts Joe Flacco in a really, really tough spot. If
there is no Jamar Chase Higgins might not be as
effective with Gonzales on him, So I agree. I think
(12:51):
you've got to get this locked in now before we
get an announcement of Chase potentially being suspended, because we saw
it with Jalen Carter. He got suspended for the game
and got their shot on somebody, so I've I think
it's probably likely going to happen again, as the league
set a precedent with that suspension, and you know they've
already come down on a lot of misfire with other things,
so I think they're probably going to try to be
consistent here.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
So I would agree, all right, speaking of consistency, the
Minnesota Vikings can't find any of it. They are now
four and six. They are six and a half point
underdogs traveling to Green Bay. They are six point favorites
in this game. Green Bay coming off a road win
against the Giants when they needed very badly to keep
pace here with the Bears, a statement I can't believe,
I said out loud. Over forty two under forty two
(13:30):
and a half plus two forty on the money line
for the Minnesota Vikings. Look, JJ and JJ, Jefferson and
McCarthy can't get on the same page, so that seems
to be problematic. It feels like there were moments too
where again, things did not break the way for the
Minnesota Vikings in that game, and maybe if a few
of them did, it would have been a little bit
of a different story. Like there's definitely moments and look,
(13:51):
I know there was that comeback there and they went
ahead and then eventually things just went south for them.
But I don't know. I just I don't know if
I feel confident enough in Green, especially with the Josh
Jacobs injury news looming too, that they can win this
game by six. I actually favor still the Minnesota Vikings
with the six and a half. I don't think the
Vikings win this game, but I do think it's gonna
play tighter. But what do you think, Andrew.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Like you under in this game?
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Okay, defense makers, Davids is a lot like the Browns
defense where they play on the road not nearly as
good when they played home. They shut down imposing offenses,
and we've seen enough bad of dij McCarthy where I
don't think we're gonna see McCarthy lead the Vikings offense
on the road in Lambeau, one of the toughest places
to play and score twenty four to twenty seven points.
And we know that the Packers. Every time you look up,
(14:34):
they lose another offensive weapon. Josh Jacobs is out, so
how does that impact the run game? So Jordan Love
also got banged up in the last week, so we'll see.
He'll probably be on the injury pourt this week with
the shoulder injury, even though he came back into the game.
So I think this is going to be lower scoring
outdoors in Green Bay. A dome team on the road.
Give me the under.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Okay, So under is where the undertaker is going. I
should have known better. Next up here, fresh off of
by the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs, now
luck up. The Chiefs drop a tough one there the
Denver Broncos, and they continue to be the chasers here.
They are now five and five. The Colts are eight
and two plus four and a half. Though nobody thinks
the Colts can go into Kansas City and get that
(15:12):
victory the Kansasy Chiefs minus three and a half forty
nine and a half for the over and the under,
and you get plus one seventy seven for the Colts
on the money line minus won seventy five for the
Kansas City Chiefs. I'm still split on this one, Andrew,
because I still feel like in theory, you still got
to beat the Chiefs, And if this one is in Indianapolis,
I might feel a little differently about it. But it's
(15:33):
in Casey. I know it was a tough one. The
Broncos will feel like, always play the Chiefs tight. I
mean they did last year too, right, They took them
to the precipice more than once, and this year they
beat them, right, So I think the Chiefs bounce back here.
The three and a half is tenuous at best. I
think what you do is you take the Chiefs and
the money line minus one seventy five and your favorite
prop and try to get this easily into like that
even money range and just do that. But what are
(15:55):
your thoughts on Chiefs Colts?
Speaker 2 (15:57):
I think I like the Chiefs in this spot. They
go those three games in a row, are really going
to see that?
Speaker 1 (16:03):
I think so. But look, this is what we always say.
Look what do I always say? Every year, the team
that loses the Super Bowl, especially in dramatic, bad fashion,
the next year, things do not go well historically speaking.
And that's exactly where're getting with the Chiefs this year.
They're an older team, they're starting to look at you know,
and they just they're not invincible like they used to be.
And I just think at this point, like that's just
something we've got to come to terms with.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
I would say against the Broncos, they kind of tasted
their own medicine where it was their special teams that
really let them down. They had a miss extra point,
they had a long Marvin Nim's return that turned into
three points for the Denver Broncos. So last year it
was them blocking the kick to let them beat the Broncos.
This year the special teams worked in the reverse, so
that kind of played a contribute part of why they
lost that game against Denver on the road. Again, playing
(16:47):
at Denver's always a tough place to play, but playing
at Arrowhead in November against a Dome team with Daniel Jones,
who has looked more like New York Giants Daniel Jones
over the last couple of games, where he's been fumbling
and sat getting sacked, so that concerns me. So if anything,
maybe it's more of a game total under as well
fifty points. Can we see Chiefs home games go for
fifty points with Daniel Jones on the other side, So
(17:08):
if you don't want to sweat the sides here, I
think that an under here is really really high, and
the Chiefs a pretty good against the run. So Jonathan
Taylor obviously it's gonna be tough to stop, but I
think the Chiefs have the horses up front to potentially
slow him down.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Next up here the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Arizona Cardinals,
So the Cardinals will see if Marvin Harrison Junior returns
or not. They are two and a half point underdogs
at home Jacksonville all of a sudden, Basehall Tooton getting
really involved too, but then he had an injury, so
we'll see what his health status is for this week.
They are two and a half point favorites on the
road here over forty six and a half under forty
(17:42):
seven and a half minus one thirty six for the
Jags on the money line, plus one thirty four for
the Arizona Cardinals. I told you all the time, and
I'm glad I stuck to it. Last week, I said
I cannot bet the Jacksonville Jaguars, so I just stopped
doing it. And guess what, my instincts would have been
wrong this week. And I'm very happy that my instincts
were right. That I knew my instincts would be wrong
when it comes to Jacksonville. So this is another pass
for me because I just don't know what team shows
(18:03):
up every week with them. You're to your take here
on this contest. Here as the Jags are favored on
the road, I don't know if I feel comfortable with that.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
I definitely do not feel comfortable with that either. Too
many there's too much volatility with these two teams, and
the Cardinals are such a backdoor cover type of team
with the fact that they're gonna throw a million times.
Mean Jacob Beepers just broke the record for most completions
in a game with forty seven against the forty nine Ers,
So yeah, this one's a I'm scratching this game off
(18:34):
my my betting car this week.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
All right, I skipped to the four o'clocks, but I apologize.
We actually had one more one o'clock game to get
to Seattle and Tennessee. Another big spread game here obviously. Now, look,
Sam Donald saw the ghost, so he hit Sam Donald.
This is what happens. He makes mistakes. Sam Donald, though,
is still you know, taking the Seattle team probably to
that playoff range. Now they are eleven and a half
point favorites on the road against the lowly Tennessee Titans,
(18:57):
who you know will put up a fight from time
to time. Plus their two means the best number you're
getting for the Titans over forty one and a half.
Under forty two and a half, you're getting plus five
seventy for the Titans on the money line. So, Andrew,
I think this line is just kind of right. I
don't know about the over under two. It's a low number.
So it depends on you know, whether or not you
know the Tennessee Titans can keep pace at all with Seattle,
(19:18):
which I don't. I think I would lean towards the
under here, that would be my instinct. But what's yours.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
Yeah, this one is tough because usually Seattle on the
road is in auto walk. And even last week, somehow
Someway Donald throws four interceptions and they still end up
covering the plus three or plus three and a half
because they only lost by two against the Los Angeles Rams. However,
my big concern with Seattle playing on the road in
this matchup is they're now starting to pile up some
offensive line injuries. Two weeks ago they lost their center
(19:46):
to an injury. Grays Abel got banged up against the Rams.
Don't know if he's going to play, And what do
we just see with a bad offensive line traveling from
West coast to east coast. The Chargers went to Jacksonville
and what happened to their offensive line? It was already
bad and they got just and then they got destroyed
in the game and Justin Herbert barely finished the game.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
So with this big of.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
A number now up to, I mean thirteen and a
half points that you have to lay for a road team, yeah,
I think Seattle finds a way to win. But like
I think Tennessee, we showed a little bit of life
defensively against the Texans. They're at home again, And I
don't think cam Wored is always going to back down.
Speaker 3 (20:21):
So I think this one for me is probably a
shy away.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
But I think as weird as it sounds, I kind
of feel like there's value in Tennessee with two touchdowns
at home.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
Again. I'm a sucker for double digits at home.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
I know you are.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
I know I think it's I think it's Titans for
me unless we get better injury news. Regarding the Seahawks
offensive line.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Yeah, that's true. Like I said, the unders where I'm
living here, I just like, I just don't know if
Tennessee can push. That's totally if it. If you know,
the Seattle stumbles a little bit, I just don't think
Seatle's gonna stumble enough here. I think they come out,
they'll win this game, But do they blow out the Titans.
That's another question to ask ourselves. All Right, Jacksonville Jaguars,
we've done so let's move ahead to the Cleveland Browns
and Shadora Sanders question, I guess versus the Las Vegas Raiders.
(21:02):
We'll see what the Raiders have on tap for us
tonight in Monday Night Football. But the Raiders as of
now are two and a half point favorites plus three
for Cleveland's the best number you're gonna find on betting pros.
Look at this over under thirty seven and a half yikes,
plus one thirty four on the Cleveland Browns money line.
I gotta say, Andrew a little tempted here. I kind
of like the Browns defense. Kind of like the Browns
(21:24):
with Shador or the week of practice if he's the guy.
I think the Browns on the money line is in
the contendership for upset of the week for me. Let's
just put it that way.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
I think that you should bet the Browns right now
because I am very confident that the Raiders are not
going to shower themselves in glory on Monday Night Football
against the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (21:43):
And I think this line is going to.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Move because, dude, the minute that they announced the Shaudar
Sanders are going to start, the Browns might be favored
in this game. Come on, like, we know how this works.
With the amount of Schadur hype that there is, Gail
and gabral a concussion, guys usually don't play the next week,
Wonka now, so it's gonna be Shudar. This line's gonna
move bet the Browns now because this is where you're
gonna get the value.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
Yeah, I mean plus three is pretty good. Money line's
pretty good. I think you just go in your role
with it all.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Next up here we have a big individual game here,
the Philadelphia Eagles going to Dallas again. We'll see what
the Cowboys have in store for us. But we know
who the Eagles are. They play a lot of boring,
low scoring kind of field games like it's just been
a slug fest. Like defense has played really well, so
credit to the defense there. Offense still lackluster ser at times.
Cowboys are four and a half point underdogs in this one.
(22:28):
Eagles favored by four and a half. Fifty one and
a half is the over under, and you're getting plus
one seventy five for the Cowboys on the money line,
So that Cowboys shock the Eagles here potentially, or is
this one of those classic like, hey, we get up
to play the Cowboys moments where the Eagles and they're
gonna put up more points, so we think fifty one.
I mean, look, they're averaging well over thirty right now
(22:49):
at home. The Cowboys are, so you know they're gonna
do their part, even though the Cowboys, you know, look
going back to that Week one matchup early on, you know,
I know things fell apart a little bit for them,
but I think the Cowboys really rocket and rolling right
now offensively. But what's your take on Eagles Dallas here
in this line?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
I don't think I have an early lean here because
I think that maybe we get some money on Dallas.
I just expect Dallas to play really well on Monday Night,
So I think that's going to maybe give some more
optimism that Dallas can come away with the upset. So
I think, actually I'm kind of convince myself that Dallas
catching points at home is the way I want to
approach this here. The Eagles defense has obviously been lights out,
(23:26):
but we know that Dallas can put up points against
some of the top end defenses in the NFL. They're
playing at home in Jerry World, and what's gonna happen
with this Eagles offense. We didn't see a j Brown
have a massive game Week one against Dallas. Is there
defense that much different than it is? I mean, obviously
they've add a couple different pieces here, and they've had
some injuries, so I think it probably is a little
bit different, but I think I'm just gonna take Dallas
(23:47):
with the points here, all.
Speaker 1 (23:49):
Right, Dallas with the points for Andrew. Next up here
we have the Atlanta Falcons, who will be without Michael
Pennix for the rest of the season. It looks like
New Orleans Saints are at home. They're coming off there.
The Atlanta Falcons are two point favorites right now, but
again this could change a little bit. With the Cousins
acumen here plus two and a half, you're getting for
the New Orleans thirty nine and a half of the over,
forty for the under, minus one thirty two for Atlanta
(24:11):
plus one twenty one. This is another contender for me
for upset Special of the Week. I gotta tell you, Andrew,
I just had it with the Falcons just This was
a game against the Carolina Panthers. Man, you are a
head at home, they beat you up already. You gotta
win this football game. They didn't. They lost their quarterback,
Drake London could be out I'll take New Orleans with
the two and a half, but I think winning out
(24:31):
right is also in the carts.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
The Saints are gonna be favored by the time this
line closed. I'm pretty convinced that they're playing at home.
The Falcons are gonna be starting Kirk Cousins. We sock
her Cousins as a heavy favorite. Uponst the Miami Dolphins
lay an absolute third of a game you can't move.
I think that the Saints defense is underrated. They have
home field advantage playing in New Orleans, and Kellen Moore
is coming off.
Speaker 3 (24:54):
A bye week.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
So I think that all the circumstantial factors here are
favoring New Orleans. And I I believe it's also Tyler
Sruck's first home start. He's had two starts on the
road this season. True, you like the rookie quarterbacks playing
at home versus on the road. So I think you're
getting a lot of value here with New Orleans. And
I mean you look up New Orleans two and eight,
talkinso three and seven. I mean, one of the most
(25:15):
disappointing teams. I think, despite the fact they have a
lot of talent.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
I mean, the defense has a lot of talent.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
So I think that Morris I don't know if he's
going to keep his job. I mean, he's underwhelmed dramatically.
All they do is spend top ten picks on offensive players,
they figure out that, oh maybe this is gonna be
the quarterback situation, they find a way to bungle that,
you know, signing Kirk Cousins that massive deal and drafting Penis.
Now Penix is heard again, just an absolute mess. So
I'm going to ride with the Saints here at home.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
You know it's funny, Andrew. I just went to go
double check it too, because the Penix news broke literally
right before we started the show, and this line has
moved since then. So now we are looking at plus
one and a half already for New Orleans minus one
for Atlanta. So it could very well be flip flopped.
And that's why I just logged it right now. When
my betting pros download the app, this is what you do.
I'm logging these beds right now. You can follow us
and Andrew Rickson, Joe Pizabo see what we're betting. Last
(26:03):
week was a rough one. I gotta tell you, I
took a lot of bats last week. But I got
a good feeling about this week coming up here. There's
a lot of early value on some of these upsets
we're talking about. Then we got two primetime games for
you here Sunday Night football at Tampa Bay. Two losses
in a row. Man, you don't want to keep losing games.
But now they got to play the Los Angeles Rams.
The schedule this has been brutal to Patriots, Bills and Rams.
Three weeks in a row for the Box yikes. So
(26:26):
the Rams are six and a half point favorites. Tampa
is again underdog. Baker Mayfield last week did not give
me what I needed, did not give me the upset
special unfortunately. But you're getting even money a plus six
and a half on him forty eight and a half
of the over forty nine a half and the under
plus two eighty two on the money line for the Buccaneers.
(26:46):
This is tough for me. I want to take the
Bucks again to cover here, But Andrew, I feel like
I've just been burned out once but twice this year,
once with the Lions game for them, once with the
Buffalo Bills game. Can you learn to love again with
Baker Mayfield this week?
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Yep, going right back to it, not overthinking it. Look,
this happened sometimes a couple of weeks ago. It was
Mike Tomlin as a home underdog. He didn't deliver what
do you do the next week as a home underdog.
He delivered in a big way. So look, the trends
aren't one hundred percent. Again, even Baker Mayfield's a stounding record,
it wasn't a hundred percent. We talked about it earlier
in the year. He didn't do it against the Lions
as a underdog coming off a loss. But two weeks
(27:20):
in a row, you're not playing with the elements here.
This isn't in a dome game where I don't think
that Los Angeles has as much of a home field
advantage as Buffalo does. And look, give credit to Josh
allen Man. He turned on he put on the Superman
cape and he went absolutely insane. Honestly, that aston post
game he probably, yeah, I blacked out. Don't know what
happened on half of those touchdowns, But I would say
that I was encouraged by Baker Mayfield running more like
(27:42):
he had not been running nearly as much. Yeah, dealing
with a couple of injuries, but he was back to scrambling,
making big plays. He was playing with a lot of
Swaggeran look, the Buccaneers had their chances in that game.
It wasn't they went up to the Buffalo and got
their asses beaten. No like they had a chance to
win that game, but Josh Allen just ended up making
more plays than they did. So I like Buccaneers with
catching basically a touchdown on the road coming off loss.
(28:03):
I'm not gonna jump off the Baker Mayfield bad wagon.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
I don't want to jump off of it. But it
dragged me twice from the back end of the bandwagon
and a little beat up right now. So I'm gonna
take a pass on this one this week pretty much.
There's other things that obviously I've already talked about liking
a lot more. You know, give me the Giants over
this week with the Detroit Lions. In fact, just the
team total of the Lions probably this week might be
(28:28):
my favorite bet of the week all right, last.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
But not opposing forty Burger coming.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
For the probably. I mean you could send it at forty,
I'd be like, I think, I'd think the over just
like it because you know what, what I haven't looked
I don't even know we have it yet, but we
think the team total for the Lions is gonna be
what would you send to that thirty one and a half?
Speaker 2 (28:45):
What? So you have the So the games at fifteen
and a half, they're ten and a half point favorites. Yeah,
it's gonna be over thirty a half points, right, probably
we all know what's gonna happen here.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
We know we do score forty points.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
Yeah, it's gonna be forty one thirty. That'll be the final.
We can get well into the seventies in that game,
pretty much. All right, let's get to last one year
Carolina Panthers again, big victory. Now they go on the
road to San Francisco forty nine forty nine ers certainly
gave up a lot of passing yards. Oh my god,
secondary got roasted in this game.
Speaker 3 (29:15):
But I know so many injuries on that defense.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
Now their six and a half point favorites, Carolinas plus seven.
Like my instincts say Carolina the cover. But again, like
my confidence in the Jekyll and Hyde Panthers is not
there either. Forty seven a half for the over, forty
seven a half of the under, plus two eighty nine
for the money line. The biggest value is the Panthers
just winning outright, But I just don't think you can
find that. So this last Monday night game for me
is going to be a pass. I'm gonna interested to
see what Scott Bogman has to say about it later
(29:40):
in the week, But what do you have to say
about it now? When it comes to early value?
Speaker 2 (29:44):
The forty nine ers tend to be pretty overrated when
they play at home with these larger spreads. So given
that their secondary, their defense is just so gashed with injuries,
effect they give up so much yards. Did Jacoby Brissette
think about it? The two guys that threw for four
hundred fifty yard last week for Jacoby Brissett.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
And Bryce Young.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Bryce Young, I hadn't throw it for like a hundred
He was like averaging one hundred and fifty passing yards
per game. And then he triples it in one game
against a really good Falcons defense that we were like
concerned about some of these matchups because man, the Falcons
are pretty good. It gets the pass this year, and
then you look up Bryce Young in a game where
he got injured twice. He got hurt twice in this game,
goes to the locker room, it comes back, throws for
four hundred and fifty yards. Tetra McMillan has an absolute
(30:24):
monster game wide receiver one on the week, I think
that I can get Panthers plus seven and a half
with the hook and the t a little bit more
than a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
I think that's the side I'm going to take.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Here, all right, everybody, So those are the early lines
hour takes our looks again, make sure you subscribe to
the channel. Drop your comments below. What's your favorite early
line take four week twelve in the NFL. And of
course don't forget to ring that bell to the those
dings so you never missed a piece of content here
on Betting Pros. That'll do it for us, But the
story of the game goes on for Andrew Erks and
I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 4 (30:55):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bet, says me. Joey p Joe p z A
Pia And this is bp NFL Andrew ericson the Undertaker
here with me on a lovely Monday morning after a
whacky and wild week eleven. All the stars, well, they
didn't show up in the sky this weekend. No now,
maybe except for Josh Allen, but the Lamar Jackson's, the
(00:22):
big names. They didn't really do what they were supposed
to do. But we had some crazy performances from some
guys off waiver wires and fantasy, and of course some
guys that really had impacts on totals and some prop
numbers that were just out of this world. Somewhere, somehow,
Jacoby Brissett is still completing a pass somehow at this
(00:42):
very moment. Here Andrew Rickson biggest takeaway for Week eleven,
what was it?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yeah, I was telling you before we started recording, I
was kicking myself after benching Sean Tucker.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
But then I realized that there Michael.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Wilson over Sean Tucker, and I think that it was
point five points so tech that did make the wrong decision.
Kasehawn Tucker was the RB one on the week. Michael
Wilson was right there as the wide receiver two on
the week. So didn't end up meaning or costing me anything.
But yeah, a while and wacky week, and I'm ready
to break it down here for Week twelve.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Yeah, my favorite bet of the week was the under
and Davante Adams like it was like sixty something receiving
yards and I was like, he's never gonna get there.
He's only gotten there twice in the last eight weeks.
It was against the forty nine ers both times, and
he got one yard and it was for a touchdown,
and that's what he did, and instincts were right. I
wish I had laddered it the other way. Is it
still a ladder technically we're just walking down it. Is
that what it is? I don't know. I don't have
the ladder, something escalator. I don't know it's going down.
(01:34):
All I know it's the down elevator. It's the express.
I wish I had been able to bet it in
the opposite direction. That would have been fun. But we're
here to look ahead and shake off the duste Week
eleven look ahead to Week twelve, and we've got a
lot of games to get to make sure you download
the Betting Pros app to help you bet smarter, not harder,
use all the tools that we've got there. A prop
bet cheat sheet is obviously there. The Betting Pros app
(01:56):
is for iOS, is for Android. You could track your bets,
you could do everything there on the app. And he
got a seven day free trial with Betting Pros Premium
when you download it right now and use their promo
code Juice, so use that as well. All right, let's
kick things off here with Thursday night football at Buffalo
Bills back on track, huge win against the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers going against the Houston Texans. Texans are now five
and five, so the Texans you're getting. This one's a
(02:17):
very all over the place plus four and a half
I saw in one spot originally here for the Texans.
When you're looking here at the Buffalo Bills here, you're
getting plus one in some markets, which is a little weird.
Right now, when you're looking around here through some of
these lines to Andrew Erickson, you're getting the over and
the under here forty three and a half on the
over forty seven and a half on the under minus
(02:39):
one eighty five, with the Buffalo Bills on the money
line plus one seventy two. I mean, it's hard not
to like the early value here on the Buffalo Bills.
Am I right?
Speaker 3 (02:47):
I agree?
Speaker 2 (02:48):
I think that's the side that you want to be
on here. I think that we're going to probably see
more money moving on the Texans side when we get
the announcement that CD Strive will probably play in this
game again. He missed two weeks now with the concussion.
It is a short week playing on Thursday, but you're
assuming that after two miss games he probably cleared the
concussion protocol. And that's no lock, but I think that
that's probably what is going to end up happening in
(03:08):
this game. I think it's going to be probably more
of a defensive matchup. I know that the Buffalo Bills
defense is an absolute mess, but I don't have a
lot of faith.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
In the Texans offense. Again.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
They missed the Titans last week and they did not
look great moving the ball. They couldn't run the ball.
I mean, we got all the usage we could want
for what he marks and he was averaging under three
yards per carry, which has kind of been the theme.
I don't think it's all on him. The offensive line
just can't create open holes. Now does that change against
the Buffalo Bills? That just the gaps keep getting wider
and wider against opposing running backs. Maybe that's what we
see here, but I think for me it's I like
(03:39):
the game total going under here at forty three and
a half points. The Texans defense is so so good.
They're playing at.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Home, and we know Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Look, unless Josh Allen just puts on the Superman cape,
which he's definitely more than capable of doing, they're not
going to move the ball with these receivers. James Cook
has kind of been underwhelming the last couple of weeks
since he got hurt on the practice report a couple
of weeks ago. So I think for me it's I
like the game total kind of going under here at
Texans at home.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
I'm just keeping it safe. Give me the Bills plus
one like guy just to find it with for Josh
Allen to find a way to win this game and
be Superman. I think that's the best wage you're here.
Next up, we have our Sunday games kicking off with
pretty huge spread here minus fourteen point favorites are the
Baltimore Ravens against the New York Jets plus fourteen and
a half. Of my Jets have some extra rest, and
the Jets were you know, they lay it all out
(04:25):
there whenever they had left. They gave it a good
try on Thursday against the Newngland Patriots and they came
up short, which is what we would, you know, think
that they would. Obviously in this one, the Baltimore Ravens
big favorites. The question is too big of a number
with that fourteen or that fourteen with the hook that
you're finding over forty four and a half under forty
four and a half plus nine hundred for the amazing
(04:46):
upset and what an upset it would be. But Andrew
ericson the question here is is two touchdowns too much
or is it just right?
Speaker 2 (04:53):
Usually I shy away from these, especially with two touchdowns
as the spread, But I would take the Ravens here
playing two touchd They're playing at home, and as someone
that betted on the Jets against the Patriots, it was close,
like they had a chance to cover the thirteen and
a half or twelve and a half.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
It did spread.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
But as you're watching that game, you just see them
make dumb mistakes. I mean, the reason why they didn't
cover was because they had the botched fumble that turned
into a field goal and that end up being the
difference in the spread.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
So they're that's kind of drops by receivers and eighty
Mitchell drops and Mason Taylor tromp like fields did the
best he could, and I mean nobody helped him out.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
They're going to find a way to make sure the
Ravens cover this game, basically, is what I'm saying when
it comes to the New York Jets. So if I'm
going to pick a side, I will take the Ravens.
Who look, I think that we always have to have
in perspective that when any when we see these AFC
North battles, they're way more harder to score in the
Ravens offense. Again, I don't think it was like a
massive surprise to see them kind of struggle against the
(05:46):
Browns on the Browns at home. The Browns are a
great defense playing at home. I think that playing the
Jets back in the Ravens house, I think this suber
Lamar gets cooking here. I think it's probably blowout, so
I will take the Ravens land the points.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
All right, this should be a fun one. The course
field of the NFL. Well, the Detroit Lions didn't score
much last night because well, Dan Campbell just refuses to
kick field goals or punt or play defense. I mean's
just force down. Well, we get four of them, so
we're gonna use them all. That's how we go. It
strives to be crazy. This is why the Lions will
never win Super Bowl. Lions fans, I hate to tell
it to you, but you cannot You cannot function this way.
(06:19):
Take the points anyway. The New York Giants and Jameis
Winston are coming to town. So that's I mean, if
this isn't a fun game, I don't know what is
minus ten and a half here for Detroit at home.
Plus eleven and a half is the best number you're
getting on the Giants. Forty nine and a half for
the over, fifty for the under flat, and then plus
five fifty for the Giants on the money line. Look,
I know Winston and company came up a little short.
(06:40):
Ten seems about right here. I worry about garbage time
in this game, but to me, this is the classic
Detroit goes home gets right. We've already seen it happen
once this year where they look black lesser and they
came home and put a whooping on people. I think
this is what's gonna happen to that Giants secondary to
cancelop anybody that is this is a bad matchup for
the Giants. I'm more comfortable with this eleven or ten
(07:00):
and a half wherever we are, then, I am with
that number for the ravens of the Jets. To be
honest with you, yeah, you.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Want to buy the Lions after they lose a game,
especially when the yeah back, Yes, yes, this is one
of the popular betting trends is you bet on the
Lions that cover the spread after they lose a game.
They lost the game in prime time, the sky is falling.
But we just saw this play out. We saw a
team not score many points against the Philadelphia Eagles, and
then the next week, what do they do? They score
points on the New York Giants. This is exactly why
(07:27):
I like the Packers and Giants game going over the
total and despite I mean Jordan Love was hurt during
that game and they still score twenty seven points. So
the Giants defense is the gift that keeps on giving.
Detroit is going to take out all their rage on
the Giants defense, and whether it's Jamus, whether it's Jackson Dart,
whoever ends up playing in this game, I think they're
going to push the Lions to score points. So of
course I'm gonna like the over in the Dome, and
(07:48):
of course I like the Lions.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
You're coming off a loss, all right, so you and
I are in agreement on this one too. The Chicago
Bears are seven and three, look at them, top of
the division, rocking and rolling. Here they're two and a
half point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. May or may
not be with Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Warren wrist injury
for Aaron Rodgers, so Mason Rudolf could be that guy.
But again, I think we know what Mason Rudolph is,
(08:09):
and I still think this game is winnable for the Steelers.
They are at plus three of the over is forty
four and a half, the under forty five and a half,
plus one thirty eight the money line for the Steelers,
which is very tempting. I have to say. Obviously, the
health of those two players has a lot to do
with this one, and because it's a quarterback and the
lead running back. Unfortunately for me, this one's a stay away.
(08:29):
There's just too much unknown for me to invest in
it this time. But what do you think, Andrew, Well, I.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
Have a question for you.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
What is this line? If Rodgers is playing? Are the
Bears still favorite? In your opinion?
Speaker 1 (08:40):
They are, but I think it's close. It's like a
one and a half or a pick them, I think.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Okay, So I think that I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Then where the value is probably on the Steelers where
you like them on the money line as opposed to yeah,
laying the points with the Chicago Bears, who are now
more favorites because it's Mason Rudolph. But look, he can
move it. He can steady the ship essentially, that's what
he does. It's not like he's unfamiliar with Mike Tomlins
won playing games with Mason Rudolph as his quarterback, and
(09:07):
you know, underdogs, Mike Tomlin tends to be a good
spot for them and Caleb Williams, although he does play
a lot better at home. So that's kind of what
is kind of shying me away from the Pittsburgh two,
especially if they don't have Jalen Warren. So I think
for me as well, it's probably shy away.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
And look, you know, the Bears are like the cardiac kids.
I get it. They have all these fun victories they find,
you know, these amazingly lucky and inspirational moments where you
know things come together for them. But I don't even
count on that every week either. Steelers on the money
line is my lean right now, So I think I'm
gonna again. I just I want more information, and if
Rogers is out, I think that number grows. So if
(09:43):
I like that, I'm just gonna wait on it and
be a little bit more patient. All right, Before we
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Next up here we have the New England Patriots, our
beloved New England Patriots, taking on the Cincinnati Bengals, or
(11:10):
whatever's left to them. Jamar Chase probably gets suspended this
week for the spidding. Just saying it's probably. I don't
have if the appeal process, I don't know what they're
gonna do whatever. New England Patriots on the road are
six and a half point favorites. They've been great on
the road. Cincinnati plus seven and a half is the number.
Forty nine and a half for the over, fifteen and
a half for the under. You get plus twenty five
(11:31):
for the Bengals on the money line. I gotta say, Erickson,
I kind of like this right now, and I think
before any Jamar Chase news happens, I want to lock
in that six and a half with the Pats, You
know me, I want to lock in the Patriot number
with the Jets early this week because I thought it
was gonna grow and it did. And look, I also
got the Jets team total under just made it, just
made it by the skin of my chitty gin gin.
All right, So what are your thoughts here on the Pets.
(11:53):
Are you with me of the six and a half
or do you like the Bengals side.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I definitely do not like the Bengals side here.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
We've seen this this matchup before Patriots Week one of
last year, the bad Patriots win in.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
Bad painetti Bengals with Joe.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Burrow in Cincinnati, So I think that this is going
to be another w for the Patriots. We talked about
how good they've been against the spread on the road
this season, so even though it is six points, it
feels like a lot. They've covered this number in a
lot of road games this season against equally as bad teams,
So they take care of business against bad teams. And
I think that stylistically X and O's wise, if you
take Jamar Chase out of this game for the Bengals,
(12:28):
the matchup becomes so brutal for Cincinnati because then you
can put Christian Zales Ontie Higgins, lock him down and
make guys like Yoshi vas and all these other ancillary
pieces like the Bengals tight ends. They have to then
beat the Patriots, and we know what the Patriot can
do best is stop the run. So I think that
puts Joe Flacco in a really, really tough spot. If
there is no Jamar Chase Higgins might not be as
effective with Gonzales on him, So I agree. I think
(12:51):
you've got to get this locked in now before we
get an announcement of Chase potentially being suspended, because we saw
it with Jalen Carter. He got suspended for the game
and got their shot on somebody, so I've I think
it's probably likely going to happen again, as the league
set a precedent with that suspension, and you know they've
already come down on a lot of misfire with other things,
so I think they're probably going to try to be
consistent here.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
So I would agree, all right, speaking of consistency, the
Minnesota Vikings can't find any of it. They are now
four and six. They are six and a half point
underdogs traveling to Green Bay. They are six point favorites
in this game. Green Bay coming off a road win
against the Giants when they needed very badly to keep
pace here with the Bears, a statement I can't believe,
I said out loud. Over forty two under forty two
(13:30):
and a half plus two forty on the money line
for the Minnesota Vikings. Look, JJ and JJ, Jefferson and
McCarthy can't get on the same page, so that seems
to be problematic. It feels like there were moments too
where again, things did not break the way for the
Minnesota Vikings in that game, and maybe if a few
of them did, it would have been a little bit
of a different story. Like there's definitely moments and look,
(13:51):
I know there was that comeback there and they went
ahead and then eventually things just went south for them.
But I don't know. I just I don't know if
I feel confident enough in Green, especially with the Josh
Jacobs injury news looming too, that they can win this
game by six. I actually favor still the Minnesota Vikings
with the six and a half. I don't think the
Vikings win this game, but I do think it's gonna
play tighter. But what do you think, Andrew.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Like you under in this game?
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Okay, defense makers, Davids is a lot like the Browns
defense where they play on the road not nearly as
good when they played home. They shut down imposing offenses,
and we've seen enough bad of dij McCarthy where I
don't think we're gonna see McCarthy lead the Vikings offense
on the road in Lambeau, one of the toughest places
to play and score twenty four to twenty seven points.
And we know that the Packers. Every time you look up,
(14:34):
they lose another offensive weapon. Josh Jacobs is out, so
how does that impact the run game? So Jordan Love
also got banged up in the last week, so we'll see.
He'll probably be on the injury pourt this week with
the shoulder injury, even though he came back into the game.
So I think this is going to be lower scoring
outdoors in Green Bay. A dome team on the road.
Give me the under.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Okay, So under is where the undertaker is going. I
should have known better. Next up here, fresh off of
by the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs, now
luck up. The Chiefs drop a tough one there the
Denver Broncos, and they continue to be the chasers here.
They are now five and five. The Colts are eight
and two plus four and a half. Though nobody thinks
the Colts can go into Kansas City and get that
(15:12):
victory the Kansasy Chiefs minus three and a half forty
nine and a half for the over and the under,
and you get plus one seventy seven for the Colts
on the money line minus won seventy five for the
Kansas City Chiefs. I'm still split on this one, Andrew,
because I still feel like in theory, you still got
to beat the Chiefs, And if this one is in Indianapolis,
I might feel a little differently about it. But it's
(15:33):
in Casey. I know it was a tough one. The
Broncos will feel like, always play the Chiefs tight. I
mean they did last year too, right, They took them
to the precipice more than once, and this year they
beat them, right, So I think the Chiefs bounce back here.
The three and a half is tenuous at best. I
think what you do is you take the Chiefs and
the money line minus one seventy five and your favorite
prop and try to get this easily into like that
even money range and just do that. But what are
(15:55):
your thoughts on Chiefs Colts?
Speaker 2 (15:57):
I think I like the Chiefs in this spot. They
go those three games in a row, are really going
to see that?
Speaker 1 (16:03):
I think so. But look, this is what we always say.
Look what do I always say? Every year, the team
that loses the Super Bowl, especially in dramatic, bad fashion,
the next year, things do not go well historically speaking.
And that's exactly where're getting with the Chiefs this year.
They're an older team, they're starting to look at you know,
and they just they're not invincible like they used to be.
And I just think at this point, like that's just
something we've got to come to terms with.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
I would say against the Broncos, they kind of tasted
their own medicine where it was their special teams that
really let them down. They had a miss extra point,
they had a long Marvin Nim's return that turned into
three points for the Denver Broncos. So last year it
was them blocking the kick to let them beat the Broncos.
This year the special teams worked in the reverse, so
that kind of played a contribute part of why they
lost that game against Denver on the road. Again, playing
(16:47):
at Denver's always a tough place to play, but playing
at Arrowhead in November against a Dome team with Daniel Jones,
who has looked more like New York Giants Daniel Jones
over the last couple of games, where he's been fumbling
and sat getting sacked, so that concerns me. So if anything,
maybe it's more of a game total under as well
fifty points. Can we see Chiefs home games go for
fifty points with Daniel Jones on the other side, So
(17:08):
if you don't want to sweat the sides here, I
think that an under here is really really high, and
the Chiefs a pretty good against the run. So Jonathan
Taylor obviously it's gonna be tough to stop, but I
think the Chiefs have the horses up front to potentially
slow him down.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Next up here the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Arizona Cardinals,
So the Cardinals will see if Marvin Harrison Junior returns
or not. They are two and a half point underdogs
at home Jacksonville all of a sudden, Basehall Tooton getting
really involved too, but then he had an injury, so
we'll see what his health status is for this week.
They are two and a half point favorites on the
road here over forty six and a half under forty
(17:42):
seven and a half minus one thirty six for the
Jags on the money line, plus one thirty four for
the Arizona Cardinals. I told you all the time, and
I'm glad I stuck to it. Last week, I said
I cannot bet the Jacksonville Jaguars, so I just stopped
doing it. And guess what, my instincts would have been
wrong this week. And I'm very happy that my instincts
were right. That I knew my instincts would be wrong
when it comes to Jacksonville. So this is another pass
for me because I just don't know what team shows
(18:03):
up every week with them. You're to your take here
on this contest. Here as the Jags are favored on
the road, I don't know if I feel comfortable with that.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
I definitely do not feel comfortable with that either. Too
many there's too much volatility with these two teams, and
the Cardinals are such a backdoor cover type of team
with the fact that they're gonna throw a million times.
Mean Jacob Beepers just broke the record for most completions
in a game with forty seven against the forty nine Ers,
So yeah, this one's a I'm scratching this game off
(18:34):
my my betting car this week.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
All right, I skipped to the four o'clocks, but I apologize.
We actually had one more one o'clock game to get
to Seattle and Tennessee. Another big spread game here obviously. Now, look,
Sam Donald saw the ghost, so he hit Sam Donald.
This is what happens. He makes mistakes. Sam Donald, though,
is still you know, taking the Seattle team probably to
that playoff range. Now they are eleven and a half
point favorites on the road against the lowly Tennessee Titans,
(18:57):
who you know will put up a fight from time
to time. Plus their two means the best number you're
getting for the Titans over forty one and a half.
Under forty two and a half, you're getting plus five
seventy for the Titans on the money line. So, Andrew,
I think this line is just kind of right. I
don't know about the over under two. It's a low number.
So it depends on you know, whether or not you
know the Tennessee Titans can keep pace at all with Seattle,
(19:18):
which I don't. I think I would lean towards the
under here, that would be my instinct. But what's yours.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
Yeah, this one is tough because usually Seattle on the
road is in auto walk. And even last week, somehow
Someway Donald throws four interceptions and they still end up
covering the plus three or plus three and a half
because they only lost by two against the Los Angeles Rams. However,
my big concern with Seattle playing on the road in
this matchup is they're now starting to pile up some
offensive line injuries. Two weeks ago they lost their center
(19:46):
to an injury. Grays Abel got banged up against the Rams.
Don't know if he's going to play, And what do
we just see with a bad offensive line traveling from
West coast to east coast. The Chargers went to Jacksonville
and what happened to their offensive line? It was already
bad and they got just and then they got destroyed
in the game and Justin Herbert barely finished the game.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
So with this big of.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
A number now up to, I mean thirteen and a
half points that you have to lay for a road team, yeah,
I think Seattle finds a way to win. But like
I think Tennessee, we showed a little bit of life
defensively against the Texans. They're at home again, And I
don't think cam Wored is always going to back down.
Speaker 3 (20:21):
So I think this one for me is probably a
shy away.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
But I think as weird as it sounds, I kind
of feel like there's value in Tennessee with two touchdowns
at home.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
Again. I'm a sucker for double digits at home.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
I know you are.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
I know I think it's I think it's Titans for
me unless we get better injury news. Regarding the Seahawks
offensive line.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Yeah, that's true. Like I said, the unders where I'm
living here, I just like, I just don't know if
Tennessee can push. That's totally if it. If you know,
the Seattle stumbles a little bit, I just don't think
Seatle's gonna stumble enough here. I think they come out,
they'll win this game, But do they blow out the Titans.
That's another question to ask ourselves. All Right, Jacksonville Jaguars,
we've done so let's move ahead to the Cleveland Browns
and Shadora Sanders question, I guess versus the Las Vegas Raiders.
(21:02):
We'll see what the Raiders have on tap for us
tonight in Monday Night Football. But the Raiders as of
now are two and a half point favorites plus three
for Cleveland's the best number you're gonna find on betting pros.
Look at this over under thirty seven and a half yikes,
plus one thirty four on the Cleveland Browns money line.
I gotta say, Andrew a little tempted here. I kind
of like the Browns defense. Kind of like the Browns
(21:24):
with Shador or the week of practice if he's the guy.
I think the Browns on the money line is in
the contendership for upset of the week for me. Let's
just put it that way.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
I think that you should bet the Browns right now
because I am very confident that the Raiders are not
going to shower themselves in glory on Monday Night Football
against the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (21:43):
And I think this line is going to.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Move because, dude, the minute that they announced the Shaudar
Sanders are going to start, the Browns might be favored
in this game. Come on, like, we know how this works.
With the amount of Schadur hype that there is, Gail
and gabral a concussion, guys usually don't play the next week,
Wonka now, so it's gonna be Shudar. This line's gonna
move bet the Browns now because this is where you're
gonna get the value.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
Yeah, I mean plus three is pretty good. Money line's
pretty good. I think you just go in your role
with it all.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Next up here we have a big individual game here,
the Philadelphia Eagles going to Dallas again. We'll see what
the Cowboys have in store for us. But we know
who the Eagles are. They play a lot of boring,
low scoring kind of field games like it's just been
a slug fest. Like defense has played really well, so
credit to the defense there. Offense still lackluster ser at times.
Cowboys are four and a half point underdogs in this one.
(22:28):
Eagles favored by four and a half. Fifty one and
a half is the over under, and you're getting plus
one seventy five for the Cowboys on the money line,
So that Cowboys shock the Eagles here potentially, or is
this one of those classic like, hey, we get up
to play the Cowboys moments where the Eagles and they're
gonna put up more points, so we think fifty one.
I mean, look, they're averaging well over thirty right now
(22:49):
at home. The Cowboys are, so you know they're gonna
do their part, even though the Cowboys, you know, look
going back to that Week one matchup early on, you know,
I know things fell apart a little bit for them,
but I think the Cowboys really rocket and rolling right
now offensively. But what's your take on Eagles Dallas here
in this line?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
I don't think I have an early lean here because
I think that maybe we get some money on Dallas.
I just expect Dallas to play really well on Monday Night,
So I think that's going to maybe give some more
optimism that Dallas can come away with the upset. So
I think, actually I'm kind of convince myself that Dallas
catching points at home is the way I want to
approach this here. The Eagles defense has obviously been lights out,
(23:26):
but we know that Dallas can put up points against
some of the top end defenses in the NFL. They're
playing at home in Jerry World, and what's gonna happen
with this Eagles offense. We didn't see a j Brown
have a massive game Week one against Dallas. Is there
defense that much different than it is? I mean, obviously
they've add a couple different pieces here, and they've had
some injuries, so I think it probably is a little
bit different, but I think I'm just gonna take Dallas
(23:47):
with the points here, all.
Speaker 1 (23:49):
Right, Dallas with the points for Andrew. Next up here
we have the Atlanta Falcons, who will be without Michael
Pennix for the rest of the season. It looks like
New Orleans Saints are at home. They're coming off there.
The Atlanta Falcons are two point favorites right now, but
again this could change a little bit. With the Cousins
acumen here plus two and a half, you're getting for
the New Orleans thirty nine and a half of the over,
forty for the under, minus one thirty two for Atlanta
(24:11):
plus one twenty one. This is another contender for me
for upset Special of the Week. I gotta tell you, Andrew,
I just had it with the Falcons just This was
a game against the Carolina Panthers. Man, you are a
head at home, they beat you up already. You gotta
win this football game. They didn't. They lost their quarterback,
Drake London could be out I'll take New Orleans with
the two and a half, but I think winning out
(24:31):
right is also in the carts.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
The Saints are gonna be favored by the time this
line closed. I'm pretty convinced that they're playing at home.
The Falcons are gonna be starting Kirk Cousins. We sock
her Cousins as a heavy favorite. Uponst the Miami Dolphins
lay an absolute third of a game you can't move.
I think that the Saints defense is underrated. They have
home field advantage playing in New Orleans, and Kellen Moore
is coming off.
Speaker 3 (24:54):
A bye week.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
So I think that all the circumstantial factors here are
favoring New Orleans. And I I believe it's also Tyler
Sruck's first home start. He's had two starts on the
road this season. True, you like the rookie quarterbacks playing
at home versus on the road. So I think you're
getting a lot of value here with New Orleans. And
I mean you look up New Orleans two and eight,
talkinso three and seven. I mean, one of the most
(25:15):
disappointing teams. I think, despite the fact they have a
lot of talent.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
I mean, the defense has a lot of talent.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
So I think that Morris I don't know if he's
going to keep his job. I mean, he's underwhelmed dramatically.
All they do is spend top ten picks on offensive players,
they figure out that, oh maybe this is gonna be
the quarterback situation, they find a way to bungle that,
you know, signing Kirk Cousins that massive deal and drafting Penis.
Now Penix is heard again, just an absolute mess. So
I'm going to ride with the Saints here at home.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
You know it's funny, Andrew. I just went to go
double check it too, because the Penix news broke literally
right before we started the show, and this line has
moved since then. So now we are looking at plus
one and a half already for New Orleans minus one
for Atlanta. So it could very well be flip flopped.
And that's why I just logged it right now. When
my betting pros download the app, this is what you do.
I'm logging these beds right now. You can follow us
and Andrew Rickson, Joe Pizabo see what we're betting. Last
(26:03):
week was a rough one. I gotta tell you, I
took a lot of bats last week. But I got
a good feeling about this week coming up here. There's
a lot of early value on some of these upsets
we're talking about. Then we got two primetime games for
you here Sunday Night football at Tampa Bay. Two losses
in a row. Man, you don't want to keep losing games.
But now they got to play the Los Angeles Rams.
The schedule this has been brutal to Patriots, Bills and Rams.
Three weeks in a row for the Box yikes. So
(26:26):
the Rams are six and a half point favorites. Tampa
is again underdog. Baker Mayfield last week did not give
me what I needed, did not give me the upset
special unfortunately. But you're getting even money a plus six
and a half on him forty eight and a half
of the over forty nine a half and the under
plus two eighty two on the money line for the Buccaneers.
(26:46):
This is tough for me. I want to take the
Bucks again to cover here, But Andrew, I feel like
I've just been burned out once but twice this year,
once with the Lions game for them, once with the
Buffalo Bills game. Can you learn to love again with
Baker Mayfield this week?
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Yep, going right back to it, not overthinking it. Look,
this happened sometimes a couple of weeks ago. It was
Mike Tomlin as a home underdog. He didn't deliver what
do you do the next week as a home underdog.
He delivered in a big way. So look, the trends
aren't one hundred percent. Again, even Baker Mayfield's a stounding record,
it wasn't a hundred percent. We talked about it earlier
in the year. He didn't do it against the Lions
as a underdog coming off a loss. But two weeks
(27:20):
in a row, you're not playing with the elements here.
This isn't in a dome game where I don't think
that Los Angeles has as much of a home field
advantage as Buffalo does. And look, give credit to Josh
allen Man. He turned on he put on the Superman
cape and he went absolutely insane. Honestly, that aston post
game he probably, yeah, I blacked out. Don't know what
happened on half of those touchdowns, But I would say
that I was encouraged by Baker Mayfield running more like
(27:42):
he had not been running nearly as much. Yeah, dealing
with a couple of injuries, but he was back to scrambling,
making big plays. He was playing with a lot of
Swaggeran look, the Buccaneers had their chances in that game.
It wasn't they went up to the Buffalo and got
their asses beaten. No like they had a chance to
win that game, but Josh Allen just ended up making
more plays than they did. So I like Buccaneers with
catching basically a touchdown on the road coming off loss.
(28:03):
I'm not gonna jump off the Baker Mayfield bad wagon.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
I don't want to jump off of it. But it
dragged me twice from the back end of the bandwagon
and a little beat up right now. So I'm gonna
take a pass on this one this week pretty much.
There's other things that obviously I've already talked about liking
a lot more. You know, give me the Giants over
this week with the Detroit Lions. In fact, just the
team total of the Lions probably this week might be
(28:28):
my favorite bet of the week all right, last.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
But not opposing forty Burger coming.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
For the probably. I mean you could send it at forty,
I'd be like, I think, I'd think the over just
like it because you know what, what I haven't looked
I don't even know we have it yet, but we
think the team total for the Lions is gonna be
what would you send to that thirty one and a half?
Speaker 2 (28:45):
What? So you have the So the games at fifteen
and a half, they're ten and a half point favorites. Yeah,
it's gonna be over thirty a half points, right, probably
we all know what's gonna happen here.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
We know we do score forty points.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
Yeah, it's gonna be forty one thirty. That'll be the final.
We can get well into the seventies in that game,
pretty much. All right, let's get to last one year
Carolina Panthers again, big victory. Now they go on the
road to San Francisco forty nine forty nine ers certainly
gave up a lot of passing yards. Oh my god,
secondary got roasted in this game.
Speaker 3 (29:15):
But I know so many injuries on that defense.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
Now their six and a half point favorites, Carolinas plus seven.
Like my instincts say Carolina the cover. But again, like
my confidence in the Jekyll and Hyde Panthers is not
there either. Forty seven a half for the over, forty
seven a half of the under, plus two eighty nine
for the money line. The biggest value is the Panthers
just winning outright, But I just don't think you can
find that. So this last Monday night game for me
is going to be a pass. I'm gonna interested to
see what Scott Bogman has to say about it later
(29:40):
in the week, But what do you have to say
about it now? When it comes to early value?
Speaker 2 (29:44):
The forty nine ers tend to be pretty overrated when
they play at home with these larger spreads. So given
that their secondary, their defense is just so gashed with injuries,
effect they give up so much yards. Did Jacoby Brissette
think about it? The two guys that threw for four
hundred fifty yard last week for Jacoby Brissett.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
And Bryce Young.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Bryce Young, I hadn't throw it for like a hundred
He was like averaging one hundred and fifty passing yards
per game. And then he triples it in one game
against a really good Falcons defense that we were like
concerned about some of these matchups because man, the Falcons
are pretty good. It gets the pass this year, and
then you look up Bryce Young in a game where
he got injured twice. He got hurt twice in this game,
goes to the locker room, it comes back, throws for
four hundred and fifty yards. Tetra McMillan has an absolute
(30:24):
monster game wide receiver one on the week, I think
that I can get Panthers plus seven and a half
with the hook and the t a little bit more
than a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
I think that's the side I'm going to take.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Here, all right, everybody, So those are the early lines
hour takes our looks again, make sure you subscribe to
the channel. Drop your comments below. What's your favorite early
line take four week twelve in the NFL. And of
course don't forget to ring that bell to the those
dings so you never missed a piece of content here
on Betting Pros. That'll do it for us, But the
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