Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is be Joey P joe P Zapeia
and this is BP NFL. We're here. We made it
real football, boys and girls, and Thursday Night the season
opens with the reigning, defending, undisputed Philadelphia Eagles raising the banner,
raising the flag at home as the champs, and the
(00:23):
division rival Dallas Cowboys coming to the town a little lighter.
Michael Parson's not there, and we'll see what else. Maybe
not much of a running game either, but we're gonna
talk about all of it. And to help me do it,
of course, my best friend's got Bogman. Every single week,
we're gonna be talking Thursday Night football. We got Sunday
Night Football now too, because this show was so damn popular,
Bogs that they had to give us a standalone just
(00:45):
for Sunday Night too. I mean, the people's show. I
think that's what we are at the end of the day.
Am I right?
Speaker 2 (00:50):
They love to fade me. I'm here for it. Let's go.
This is gonna be another fun year. So excited that
football is back. Joey. We had a full week of
college football last week. I enjoyed that outside of the
result of my Longhorns. And now I get to watch
Aaron Rodgers all year. You know, I'm super excited for that.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
It's gonna be a long season for Scott Bogman. But again, entertaining,
and that's what it's about. It's about the views and
the ratings, and we're gonna get that.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Yeah, we're like the Cowboys. Yeah, as long as it's
a soap opera, business is good.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Right, Well, it's not Marie James. It's Kyle Brand's line
and it's so good, which is the Cowboys are a
content company that does football on the side. It is
the most perfect quintessential Cowboy and the Cowboys fans know it.
But he nailed it. I wish I came up with
that first. I did not, so shout out to Kyle.
Uh good dude. So let's get scream with some of
(01:41):
the picks. Here. We're gonna talk about the game. We
can talk about the props. I got my parlay this SGP.
But of course we want to encourage everybody to download
the Betting pros app use the new tools we got
to refresh on the Betting pros app. This year, just
in time for football season. It just dropped this weekend
and oh baby, it is good. So make sure if
you haven't already check it out if you have the
app up data, because we're in it right now. And
(02:01):
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The Alvin Kamara autographed helmet from Pristine Auction dot Com.
(02:46):
All right, let's get to the game. This is well,
we've been waiting for the Dallas Cowboys. Best number you're
getting on them on Betting pros plus eight and a
half at minus one oh six, the Eagles minus eight
at minus one oh two. The total here over. The
best number I see on VP is forty seven and
a half at even money, and then forty seven and
a half minus one two on the under. That's the
(03:07):
best number you're finding. And the Cowboys on the money
line if you like them and I don't, plus three
eighty one if you're looking for the upset, now, Boggs.
When it comes to these Indivision games, things do get tight.
I'm sure the Dallas Cowboys I've heard a lot.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Are you about to tell me to throw the records
out the window, Joe.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
No, I don't want to throw the records out the window.
But look, it is the first week of the season,
it is an Indivision game, it is Thursday night. There's
a lot happening here. So to me, I'm more interested
in the individual performances than the game itself. From that perspective,
That's where I'm betting this one, and I'm staying very clear.
You can check out the short that I've already put
(03:45):
together two over on our social media, but bogs, walk
me through your thoughts on the spread, on the total
and who knows Cowboys upset? I doubt it.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Yeah, not my favorite game of the week, but I
feel fairly confident in Philly. Dak is back, and Dallas
did get spacked twice last year by Philly. I think
it was uh forty one to six in that last game,
uh forty one to seven, excuse me, in the last game,
thirty four to six in the first game. So they
(04:15):
failed to score double digits against yeah, Philly, quite understatement.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Without they got They got out DAC seventy five to
thirteen in those games.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
But I think I'm pretty sure both those games were
without that, right, So yeah, Look, Dak being back is
enormous for the Cowboys, but losing Micah Parsons on this
defense is you know, it's the impact that everybody says
it is and everyone is making a big deal about it.
You've seen this line move out already well over a
(04:44):
touchdown out at eight and a half, and I think
the Cowboys are going to be a little Bengals ish
this year. I think their defense is better than Cincinnati,
but their offense isn't they have. They lack a run,
a real run game. They lack an offensive line to
dominate a defensive line. So all of this is going
to be on the back of deck. And I think
(05:05):
you're asking this passing game to do too much against
the best defense in the league, one of the best defenses.
Maybe we called Denver or Pittsburgh up there too, but
one of the better defenses in the league Week one. Now,
you know, you get the whole offseason to prepare for
this game. I'm sure we're gonna see some tricky stuff
on both sides, So maybe I'm less likely to love
(05:25):
the under in this game a little bit. But if
it's anything like college, we had a lot of unders
in Week one, a lot of people betting over, so
Vegas made a bunch of money. But I think that
this week I'm okay with Philly. I don't really want
to touch the total.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
I don't want to touch the total. I almost don't
want to touch a spread. But Mike Lee is certainly
the eagle side in the eight.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
I think it has to be.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
I think, look, can they win by ten or something?
I think they can. But again, this is not where
I want to make my strong investment. I'm just being
really just clear, and I'm the king of cave. It
it real. Everybody knows on the show. I love some
things on the weekend, the under on the Jets game.
I love that can't give enough of the Steelers Jets
(06:07):
that pace of play. I think the Giants are gonna cover.
I think that the Seattle is really plucky as a
home underdog. There's a lot of good things. I think
Denver's gonna just kick the crap out of a rookie
QB at home. I think that's a dangerous There's a
lot of stuff on something that's my survivor pick mine too,
mine too, Denver, I mean to make a first start
(06:29):
in Mile High week I don't.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Okay, well, here here's what we differ in this game.
I actually don't think cam wored is gonna be too bad.
I don't think it's.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Gonna be awful. I just think it's gonna be hard
to operate.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
They are not gonna be able to stop Denver at all.
That Denver's gonna run the ball right down their throat
because at the improvements that Tennessee made. The offensive line
is good. Obviously, the quarterback is going to bring everybody
up on offense. No, Harold Landry, I don't know where
they're getting their pass rush from. And Lugarious Need has
just been consistently hurt as a Titan. So the secondary's bad.
(07:03):
The line is bad. I don't know who their second
linebacker is gonna be. It's it's rough in Tennessee right
now on defense.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
So what we're trying to say is pace yourself. It's
the first game. Yes, you know, you don't want to
be like Chris Farley and Tommy Boy Jojo the idiot
this boy, and you're just really excited about every You
don't want to do that, Okay, you just want to
pay It's the first night. Everyone's excited. People bet too much.
Don't do that. We're gonna walk you through some of
the props. Go ahead, box.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
I talked about this on a college football show and
we were talking about, like what do you do early
in the season, And I said, look, you bet less
early because you don't want to, you know, screw up
your whole role that you're gonna bet for for the year.
I know we're all excited We're all we all want
this to be awesome. We all want to all of
(07:47):
our bets to hit. But Week one tells us more
than any other week, right, So we go in more
blind in week one than any other week.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
All see every year stuff that like, I see so
much and bring on the forty nine ers, and I
keep going no, like, I just don't like I like,
maybe maybe I'm wrong. We'll see. We'll talk more about
those games later in the week. Obviously, a Thursday Friday,
we're here to talk about Thursday night football, and we're
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All right, Bogs, let's dig a little deeper here. We
(10:05):
will keep you, of course honest here as we always do.
Bogs is very good. Also about keeping it real. Last
year above five hundred, that's all that matters. At the
end of the day, did we win or we lost?
We won? Hey, above five hundred last year, So take
you through the season and the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Fifty four is incredible in long term betting.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
In long term and again, we have to do this
every single week, right, this is our job. Yes, so
some weeks where again this game. I told everybody I'm
not eating this game. Some of the individual stuff I do. Like,
let's start here with Jalen Hurts first time touchdown score
plus four to twenty five. That's a pretty good number, bogs.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Yeah, listen this, Uh, I like this because of the payout. Right,
this is the one where I look at this and
I go, I don't need a lot of stats. I
did look things up, like I don't know, Saquon scored
a lot of first time touchdowns. I think Hurts maybe
did it twice last year. Cavante Terp is an amazing
kick returning. You might return the opening kickoff back for
(11:02):
a touchdown, like you know, But what happens if the
Eagles get to the one we know, we know exactly
what happens. They tried to ban it, that's how good
they are at the tush push and Jalen Hurts is
going to go over the top and score a touchdown
and get it. So I'm hoping that that is the
first drive of the game for the Eagles. It gets
him down close to the goal line, they get near
(11:23):
the one, and we know exactly what happens. So you know,
paying four to one on that I think is a
pretty good risk. So I love this bat.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Now, look, the anytime touchdown score for Jalen Hurts is
minus one sixty, but I want to find that first time. Yeah, well, Robbie. First,
you know, we all think Jalen Hurts is gonna score,
but I don't like minus one sixty. But Boggs plus
four something is also a little bit more, you know,
cowboys shooting his guns in the air. So I'm gonna
find the happy medium. I'm gonna flip that one sixty
(11:51):
to a plus one sixty five. You can bet him
to score first in the first half. Score for excuse me,
anytime touchdown Jalen Hurts in the first half of this
game at plus one sixty five. So to me, that's
kind of like the happy medium. I'm the more conservative
better And you know what, I'm also making a concertive
effort week one to really be conservative. Last year Week one,
(12:12):
I was way too balls to the wall, way too excited,
and it took me a little while to dig myself
out of that hole. But then I dug myself out
and it was fantastic, But that first week was too much.
I've really honed in on a couple of things I like.
I mentioned them a runny on the show, but this
one in particular, I think is a great way to
get exposure to it in a better number. Take the
first half again, we know what they do when they
(12:33):
get to the one. Is it as sexy as Bogman's? No,
but it's plus money, so I'll take it.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Go ahead, box, Yeah, I mean, I was just gonna say, like,
if you want to go crazy, go crazy week two.
You have at least a whole weeks of a week
of information, a real injury report. You'll see how a
lot of those guys are playing, so you know, I
mean the injury reports for week one are like, you know,
what do they want to tell us?
Speaker 1 (12:57):
The injury off the season of sucked? Okay, the injury
news is just freaking terrible at this point, and I
don't know what. Like, look, NFL needs to do a
better job of this because it's annoying. I'm just annoyed.
From a fantasy investment standpoint, from a wagering investment standpoint,
from a fan investment standpoint, it's annoying. Just tell me
(13:18):
the truth of what's going on, and they have not.
Nobody's forthcoming. I mean, I'm still not even sure what's
wrong with Joe Mason. Nobody's really told me what the
hell's wrong with Joe Mixon's it's an ankle foot, it's
it's somewhere between the knee and his little toe. Something's
wrong there. Can we get a little more information, I'd
love to find out, But anyway, let's talk more Jalen
(13:39):
Hurts here, you've got the twenty six and a half
past attempt going over or under.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Let's go under on this one. I'm not big on unders,
but and this one was twenty seven and a half yesterday.
I think they saw me writing notes for this. But
over the first four weeks in twenty twenty four he
hit this. He did this three times, I think three
times in four weeks, and then over the rest of
the season, including the playoffs, three times for the rest
(14:06):
of the year. Two of those were twenty eight, one
was thirty two. So everything else under this twenty six
and a half, no twenty sevens. So I just think
that a team like Philly at home, if this starts
to get gross. Why would we need Hurts to pass
the ball. This is what happened all fourth quarter last year.
(14:28):
It happened for Zay Flowers as well, you know, like
they just didn't need to pass the ball late the Ravens.
I think the Eagles are that way as well. I
think in their perfect game plan, Hurts probably throws the
ball somewhere between fifteen and twenty times, and they run
the ball the rest of the time, control the clock,
keep the defense fresh and on the sideline. That's the
game plan going in every single game for Philly. I
(14:49):
think it's gonna work against Dallas because I don't like
this defense.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
All right, let's talk about aj Brown. The number for
him for a seving yard seventy two and a half. Now,
he was dealing a little bit of a knee issue,
but it's gonna play in Week one. So Bob, you
want to go over or under the seventy two and
a half receiving.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
Yards, I'll go over on this one. And he hit
this in eight of fourteen games last year, including one
hundred versus Dallas. When it Hurts started in that first
game because that second game they were resting their starters
because they already had home field, so hurts barely. I
can't remember if he didn't play or he barely played.
Whatever it was, it wasn't very long. So AJ Brown
over one hundred yards. I know he's questionable, but he
(15:27):
picks up yard or over seventy two and a half yards.
He picks up yards in big chunks. And if you're
focusing on stopping the run game which you trade for
Kenny Clark, apparently you're say more focus on stopping the
his his grade has gone down four straight years and
he's thirty. So I like Kenny Clark. He's a good player,
(15:49):
but I don't know about this man. And Mozzie Smith
has not made it work. So I think if Philly
is dominating or you know, if Philly is dominating the run,
that's gonna be the concentration you can hit AJ Brown
over the top. One big one for him will get
it most of this, I think, and then it's just
three or four catches after that. So look for the
big one for AJ Brown and then I think he
(16:10):
gets the rest of this on his normal You know,
what's a minimum line for AJ Brown? In most games?
Show you four for fifty three.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Fifty I think somewhere in that range.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Yeah, four, somewhere in that range. Yeah, one big one
and the rest will play out, I think. So let's
just hope for that big one.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
Let's move to the Dallas Cowboys box because there's a
lot of eagle stuff on this game as rightfully, So
let's talk about George Pickens new toy here. I know
sometimes you like to go for the over under on
the largest reception of a certain player. Two and look,
Pickens is a big play kind of guy. It's gonna
be fasting to see how he operates in this offense
with Ceedee Lamb now as the number two target in Dallas.
(16:48):
So where are you going with Pickens here? You got
twenty two and a half of the longest reception you've taken.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
That. Yeah, we're going over on that. He hit this
in twelve to fifteen games last year with Russell Wilson
and by the way, football Russell Wilson rooson ball, those
are great right His A dot last year, Russell's was
eight point four, Daxx was eight point three, and Dak
is going to be by far the best quarterback that
(17:13):
ceed that George Pickens has ever played with right, like
the quarterbacks of Georgia were okay, and then it was
Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky and Russell Wilson is the
ghost of Russell Wilson, the old Russell Wilson is the
best quarterback that he's played with in his career so far. Yeah,
So I think Dak is awesome. You have the number
(17:36):
one guy covering Lamb on probably every single play. I
think he gets this. You know, he is a deep
play guy. And I think you're gonna see more effort
from Pickens this year because he's happy about his situation.
So I think those fifty to fifty balls that he
was let he was under fifty percent contested catches that
(17:57):
I'll never believe that. That is just anything effort from Pickens.
And he is a cry baby. We know that he's
a whiny, you know boy, And I just I don't
like a lot of his antics and stuff like that.
But I was still not happy that the Steelers traded
him because it's a net positive. So I've seen a
lot of Pickens. I think he hits this one easily
(18:19):
in this game.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
All right, let's talk about Davonte Williams. The rushing yards
for him thirty six and a half. The rushing attempts
nine and a half. How do you want to approach
this one? Because it doesn't look like there's a whole
lot of help in this backfield, at least not in
week one.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
That's it, right, Like you know, you have one vet
that isn't wholly and completely washed. Miles Sanders to me
is just nothing. You know, like every once in a
while he'll pop off a big play. I have to
say that because he did, you know, I say he's washed.
I think his last big run was against the Steelers,
of course, for a big touchdown. But I just I
(18:53):
don't believe in him at all. I think Jayden Blue
is a passing yard, passing down back when you're not blocking,
so I think his role is somewhat limited. Already. You
will change of pace for sure if you're holding the ball.
But I think Dallas is going to have to try
to run the ball, at least in the beginning of
the game. So I think Chavante is gonna see some
(19:15):
carries early. His total carries nine and a half. That's it.
Who else is touching the football here? Right?
Speaker 1 (19:21):
I agree?
Speaker 2 (19:21):
Maybe you run some reverses or something, but you're not
running dak Off an injury and so there's not gonna
be RPOs and things like that. I just think as
long as they have the ball for more than twenty
five minutes in this game, there's no way Javonte doesn't
hit this. Now, famous last words, maybe Jayden Blue is
the guy. This is why are tricky. But I just
see no other back that is reliable in Dallas, and
(19:45):
I think if you're playing Philly, you have to at
least show them the run game a little bit. So
nine and a half I think is an easy clear
for Chavante. But like I said, famous last words, it
is week one.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
It is week one. If you're looking for more prop help,
don't forget the prop bet cheat sheet. It allows you
to find the best plays every single day on every
single game of view the rankings based on projections, and
that's the gold right there. So if you haven't used
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Com slash props, or just download the new and improved
(20:20):
Betting Pros app. I'm telling you it's sexy boys and girls,
go get it and use the prop bet cheat sheet. Today,
let's take a look at some more fun here, and
let's talk a little same game parlay. And I got
this bad boy all the way up. If you want
to have some juice and a little bit of fun,
a small wager on this one. Again small, it's week one,
Game one. Pace ourselves, slowly, slowly plus seven seventy eight.
(20:44):
You can get this bad boy up to Jalen Hurts
anytime first half touchdown score. I talked about that before.
You can just bet this one separately. That's what I
want to do first time, first game. Just just bet
that and walk away with plus one sixty five and
just walk away. That's what I would do on Thursday night.
But I know you degenerates out there want more, so
I'm gonna give you more. Uncle Joey's got you. So
(21:05):
take the Hurts anytime first half touchdown score. Take Davonte
Williams over thirty six and a half rushing yards, Jalen
Hurts under to twelve and a half passing yards, and
that's how I get to plus seven seven eight almost
plus eight hundred there on that one bog. So you
want to pick that one apart. You want to interchange,
you want to move out to Gavonte Williams rushing yards
(21:26):
and replace it with the nine and a half rushing attempt.
I don't think that's a bad one necessarily that.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
I think I would do that. And how far down
does this go? If you just do hurts anytime touchdown.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
See, it goes down a lot because I yeah, no,
it's more I think I will do that for it.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
I don't think, yeah, please, please do because I think
it's gonna still be over five. If it's over five,
I would still I would want to change that, just
so we're not relying on one half or all right.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
I'm gonna I'm gonna do this. I'm gonna take Bogman's
attempts here, all right, So let's see, let's go for
the rushing attempts nine and a half at nine and
a half here, let's go for the over on that,
which is actually ten and a half where I'm looking
at it right now, So that might be.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Moving a little bit, a little bit, it is moving
in the right direction. So get it fast, get.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
It fast, folks, get a fast get it all gets good.
I literally just saw it. We started this a half
hour ago, and obviously it's already changed. Things are moving,
and then the under no, so hurts. Actually, I can't
even put the attempts with it. It won't let me
put it with it. See, so let's go back to
the original. We're working. I don't hate and a half.
(22:34):
I mean color. If we can't get the look, if
he gets the ten attempts, he's averaging three and a
half yards per carry. Look, one decent run should get up?
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Is he gonna average? He looked like he was running
in sand last year. That's why I went attempts over yard.
Speaker 1 (22:47):
I normally I would agree with you.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
All right, so let me see this though you put
these together.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Past forty nine. That's your answer, so it's under five.
But you're not.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
You're far off ten and a half. I think ten
and a half versus thirty six and a half. Flip
a coin man like whatever, like you said, like if
he does get one decent one, like, he doesn't have
break it twenty oh, get.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
An eleven, eleven, one eleven, get eleven. You know everything.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
There's a couple of zeros in there.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
So anytime touchdown score for hurts hurts under two twelve
and a half and then Javante over thirty six and
a half plus four to forty nine. If you want
to change that up and get a little bit more conservative,
because it's early and it's weak one and and that's okay,
and it's game one. And if you're looking to build
the same game parlay, don't forget. We've got that for
you too. Over a Betting Pros We've got all that
you can stack, the logic, the high value combinations. Again,
(23:36):
one of the best things you can do when you're
trying to do an SGP is you're taking all these
things that we're talking about, right, what's the story of
the game, how do we tell that story in the props?
And then how do we put those things together? So
the correlations are important here, And if you want to
find help with that, Betting pros dot com slash parlay
is the place to help you. So, Bogs, this was
a really good first effort here. I'm very excited about
(23:57):
Thursday Night Football. I'm even more excited Sunday Night Football
because that, my friends, that's a game I already bet
my Derrick Henry props already. I'm already all in there,
and I rewatched the playoff game too, and I forgot
that Mark Andrews had that big fumble in that big
spot in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
You don't remember that I drop. It was a drop
right now?
Speaker 1 (24:17):
No, No, it wasn't punched out, punched out, ok. And
you know, thinking back on it now, like it was
one of those things like you remember it happens, but
they're like, oh, yeah, that's right, that happened. And then
he had that last moment for him where it fell short.
I wonder if that just got in his head or
he was having trouble with the ball that night because
of the conditions. And I'm just saying, I think the
Ravens are gonna go out there and I think they're
gonna smack her room buffalo. He is.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
He is an Arizona boy. Uh Mark problems. Yeah, he
went to the same high school as the Welsh.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
And Welsh has never seen snow either, right, so.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Uh no, I think he has now he's gone up
to flag Staff. But I didn't see snow in my
life until we were decorating the tree and it snowed
for the Christmas tree, and it snowed for like ten
minutes in Phoenix. Is it snowed twice while I live there.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
Ever, all right, so let's do the touchdown calls where
you're going for your touchdown call here, we'll call it
a day.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
At Javante, you were doubling up plus two fifteen. I
do think if the Dallas Cowboys score, that is the
most decent number for going like anytime touchdown, if we
don't have to attach a half to it, or a
first time or any other weirdness. Javante doubling up I
think is your best odds because I just you not
getting good odds on Squon or Jalen.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
I don't trust that, Okay, I'm all just dark throws
after that. So I'm gonna try to keep it simple.
I'm sticking with my Hurts plus one sixty five anytime,
first half. I've got half a football game to get
a touchdown from Jalen Hurts fingers crossed. We get down there, Saquon,
I want you to stop right at the one. Can
you do that for me? That would be very very
(25:53):
helpful for me. All Right, hopefully we've been helpful for you.
Drop your comments below. Don't forget to get involved to
when you are looking for that. Alvin Kamara helmet. We're
giving away and give some love to our sponsor again.
New sponsor hard Rock is out there for you and
we want you to go ahead and place your first
bet for five bucks at hard Rock Bet and you'll
get one hundred and fifty bonus bets when you win that.
(26:15):
I'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Scott Bogwin. I'm Joey P. We'll
see you next time. Kids football is back, good.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Luck, let's go.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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