NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Picks | Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Ep. 899) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to play
shore bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pie's a pea
and this is BP NFL. Scott bog and I are
here to break down Thursday night football, and I gotta
be honest with you, I'm not super excited about the
lines on this one. So hopefully Bogs has some props.
I know I've got an SGP for you, and hopefully
all of our touchdown calls go ahead and rock and roll.

(00:22):
Scott Bogman, Monday night was just as wacky as we
thought it would be. Went to overtime. Didn't need that
and certainly didn't need all the Jalen Hurts turnovers too.
Keep talking about how the Eagles are broken, man, we
talked about for weeks and weeks and weeks, going back
all the way to the upset on Thursday night when
they lost to the Giants. I thought before that they
were broken and they might still be broken.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yeah, that was That was a rough watch from Jalen Hurts.
I mean, he just became unbelievably predictable. Didn't he have
like one interception going into that game?

Speaker 1 (00:51):
I was crazy he had two on the same play.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
Now what he did, He did have two turnovers on
the same play. And yeah, so rough day, I.

Speaker 1 (01:00):
Was like, how many Fantasy points can you lose in
one play?

Speaker 3 (01:03):
Right?

Speaker 1 (01:04):
Right?

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Rough day at the office for Hurts. Right, But we
kind of thought that was going to happen. We talked
about the East Coast going to play prime time on
the West Coast typically down work well for them, and uh,
you know, it was exactly how that happened.

Speaker 1 (01:17):
So I thought the Eagles would just muscle their way
out of it. But it turns out, you know, the
more or just say, the less boring the Eagles are,
the more app they are to lose games, which just
kind of interesting. People go back, run.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
Down your throat, Run down people, throat, that's what you
should go back, because was working in that game too.

Speaker 1 (01:32):
So yeah, he is, all right, let's go break down
the Atlanta Falcons four to nine the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
coming off a loss. Oh my goodness, gracious, Tampa Bay
Buccaneers got to figure some stuff out quickly here, bogs. Uh,
they are four point favorites at home, which makes sense.
I think this is a good number. Plus four and
a half. I don't see a lot of value here
on VP consensus the over under. If you ask me

(01:53):
to send it, I would send it at forty four,
and it's at forty four. You can get forty four
and a half on the under plus two A wait
for the Falcons money line upset. I don't love that either.
It's just this is a hard pass for me. If
I had to lean a certain way, I'd lean towards
the Buccaneers with Bucky Irving and Drake London. As of
recording this, we don't have an answer if he's gonna play.
My guess is he has not. I just don't. I

(02:14):
think I don't think Drake Lene's gonna play again this
year their four win team. What's the point? Why would
you do this? And I think Kirk Cousins makes turnovers
and I'm just gonna allow one of those turnovers to
be the difference of this game. But I'm going to
straight to props. I'm making no bones about this. What's
your take on this one?

Speaker 2 (02:31):
I you know, plus four and a half anything more
than a field goal, I'm gonna take points in a
game with this right. Tampa Bay just has not been
playing their best football at all, Baker Mayfield has not
been the same since he you know, took that shot,
and he's clearly playing it well less than one hundred percent.

Speaker 3 (02:47):
So the offense is still very good.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
I think the roster is better for Tampa Bay as well,
So I do think they'll win this game. They're at home,
they have more to play for all that Kirk Cousins
is not their starting quarterback right, So, like, I do
think Tampa Bay will win.

Speaker 3 (03:02):
But I just have no confidence in them.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
This to me, reminds me of the Denver versus Vegas
game on Thursday that we saw a couple of weeks back,
right where we know this should be a drubbing by
the Broncos.

Speaker 3 (03:16):
It's not the way it plays because you're on short.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
I was on vacation for that game, so I didn't
watch that game.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
It was miserable and all I was you.

Speaker 1 (03:24):
And and everybody just bitching about it. When I came
back about me.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
And seth Man ten to seven was the final of
that game. It was disgusting. I think this game is
probably gonna be fairly similar to that, so more. I
don't definitely higher scoring, but I was gonna.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
Say, maybe it's an under then, after all, it's funny
because I have the public money, I think I'll still
take the Buccaneers, So you're probably right.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
They're at home, so I understand that, But I just like,
I don't have enough confidence to bet the Bucks right now,
not with the way they're playing, specifically, not with the
way the baker is playing. So and it's not his fault.
He's clearly playing at less than one hundred percent, but
fifty percent Teddy of him here, a Baker here is
still better than whatever Teddy's got left.

Speaker 3 (04:07):
It's just not working.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
So yeah, yeah, I think they win, but I think
it's a field goal game, so I'll take Atlanta, but
without a ton of confidence.

Speaker 3 (04:14):
Let's stick to props in this one.

Speaker 1 (04:15):
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All right, so with the Drake London injury and again,
shout out to Scott Bokam. Before you even get to these
props four and one on Monday night football. Great night
for him. Kudos to Scott Bogging care that's right. Climbing
back in, climb back in. That's what we're gonna do
with the Drake London injury. It hasn't really been a

(06:26):
moony step up really anybody else. Kyle Pitts, I feel like,
is the safe, boring guy, and you know me, normally
I'm the receiving yards guy, but I actually prefer the
receptions here like you do in this one, because I
don't have a lot of faith in the explosiveness of
what the Falcons can do, but I do think there's
gonna be a lot of territory there for him to
get targets in this football game. So I love this

(06:48):
over five and a half reception. So talk to me
about Kyle Pitts in this Thursday night matchup.

Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yeah, like you mentioned, looks like London is still going
to be down. We don't have official word, but it's
you know, officially unofficial that he's not going to play here.
Eighteen targets in the line two weeks for Kyle Pitts,
so you know, obviously getting a lot of looks from
Kirk Cousins, and we're just attacking the middle of the
field against Tampa Bay because they have injuries here, right

(07:12):
and it hasn't been good most of the season as well.
Tike Smith has not practiced yet. As we're recording this,
Servas Dennis looks like he's gonna be down as well.
And then you know the slot corner Jacob Parrish, He's
been okay, but he's allowing eighty five point two percent
completion rate when targeted. Levonte David eighty nine and a half,

(07:33):
almost ninety percent when they're out there. These are two
of the worst cover corners in the league right now,
or a cover linebackers in the league right now. So
Tampa Bay also has passes at the six highest percentage,
or opponents against them pass at the six highest percentage.

Speaker 3 (07:50):
Because the rundee is eighth in the league. It's very stout.

Speaker 2 (07:53):
So I think you're gonna see a lot of passes.
I think passes typically over the middle go do Kyle Pitts,
And they have injuries the middle and bad slock corner plays,
so I think Kyle Pitts can go over this five
and a half pretty easy here, all.

Speaker 1 (08:05):
Right, So what kind of night are we in store
in for with Kirk Cousins two six and a half
passing yards? Is the total were going over or under?

Speaker 2 (08:12):
Yeah, I'm gonna go over this one. And look, I
understand I don't have a ton of faith in Kirk Cousins,
and neither should you, right, but this number is low.
It's two o six and a half. He's projected over
everywhere I looked. And the run defense again has been
pretty stout for the Bucks. But they give up two
hundred and thirty seven point eight yards per game passing
and that is twenty seventh in the league, and four

(08:33):
out of the last five games the quarterbacks have gone
way over this total. And the other was Tyler Schuck
with New Orleans last week. So May two seventy, Josh
Allen three seventeen, Stafford two seventy three, and Reset three
to Zho one against this Bucks defense. So you don't
have to get anywhere close to that. All you got
to do is get two oh seven from Kirk Cousins

(08:55):
in this Thursday night game. I think their idea is
going to be to pass the ball here, So I'll
go the over on Kirk Cousins as well.

Speaker 1 (09:03):
All right, so the over on Cousins here, Let's pivot
to the next player that we're going to talk about
on Thursday Night Football, and it is Bijon Robinson. So
how do you want to approach Bijon in Thursday.

Speaker 2 (09:13):
Night's Let's give him reception yards as well, because this
is a good matchup for his receiving yards. We talked
talked to you about the bad linebacker play against the
pass that we've talked about for Tampa Bay, but they
also you know, Bijeon has hit this over thirty six
and a half receiving yards in nine of thirteen games
so far this season. The Bucks are giving up the
most receiving yards per game to running backs fifty three

(09:35):
point nine, and they're twenty six and twenty plus yard
passing plays allowed with forty two this season, and Bijon
has six catches over twenty yards, So I expect him
to get the majority of this on one big rip,
but you know they could feed him as well. Obviously,
no Drake London, these receptions are going to be spread around.
Darneld Mooney did have a touchdown call back last week,

(09:58):
so I have a little more faith in him to
help Kirk Cousins get to this and to open up
the field underneath a little bit more. But I don't
want to depend on Darnell Mooney with my money. I'd
rather put it on be Sean. So thirty six and
a half just seems low to me, specifically since he's
hit this in nine of thirteen games already.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
All Right, we mentioned Baker Mayfield earlier. We know he's
not one hundred percent. He's soldiering through because he's a
warrior that Baker Mayfield. So is he more mistake prone?
Potentially She'll be looking for maybe an I int prop
at plus money when it comes to Bake.

Speaker 2 (10:27):
It's my favorite pick of the week here, Joe Baker
Mayfield over half an interception.

Speaker 3 (10:33):
He only has six on the season.

Speaker 2 (10:35):
I understand that, but four have been in the last
four games for Mayfield, and between weeks three to ten
and seven games he only had eight turnover worthy plays. Well,
the last four games he's had eight turnover worthy plays.
That's two per game. Atlanta is the fifth highest in
hurry percentage at ten point two percent. Atlanta also second
highest blitz behind Minnesota and Baker is twenty one of

(10:58):
twenty five graded quarter backs under pressure this season, and
obviously a little bit of the the you know happy
feat because he's already banged up right now as well.
So I think this leads to one pick at least
for Atlanta. So Jalen Hurts didn't throw a bunch either
before his Monday Night experience, I should have taken that bet.
I think Baker throws a pick here, at least at

(11:19):
least one.

Speaker 1 (11:20):
All Right, Bucky Irving's been back the last few weeks,
which is certainly something the beleaguered offense of the Buccaneers
could use. His rushing prop is said at sixty two
and a half. It feels like it over to me, Bogs.
Do you agree?

Speaker 3 (11:32):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (11:32):
I do.

Speaker 2 (11:32):
Atlanta is twenty fourth and rushing yards allowed. They're allowing
one hundred and thirty one per game. And Bucky went
from thirty eight percent snap shared a forty nine percent
last week. He's had two ten plus yard rips from
Bucky last week we had and you know, we looked
early this offseason in the winning We looked earlier this

(11:53):
season at the winning teams from Thursday Night Football, and
they tend to run the ball a lot late in
the third and fourth quarter. If they're up, and you
know this is the game plan on Thursday night football,
you don't want to do too much. Specifically, if we
have Baker throwing a pick earlier, maybe a close one
as well. If he's making mistakes in this game, they're

(12:13):
going to stick to the ground specifically against Atlanta's blitz
heavy packages here. So we're gonna go with Bucky to
go over this. I think he's just getting more and
more work. He's the lead back now. I think we
could see some Sean Tucker in this one as well,
if they're you know, stepping on the throat slate. I
obviously don't see the playing like that. I think it
is going to be closer because it's a weird Thursday

(12:34):
night division game. But I think Bucky can get this
total and he'll get He'll get a lot of it
in Chunk Gains. I feel like we love Chunk Gaines,
former offensive line.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
Coach for Mississippi State University. Chunk Gains, everybody don't forget.
If you want more help with your betting, make sure
you go over to the betting pros app downloaded today
and use the prop betcheet sheet along with the pross
Bogs gave you. There's a many props on there for
every single category, passing, rushing, receiving and more. So go
check it out right now, go to Betting Pros dot
com slash props. And we also had giving away free

(13:06):
stuff here on the show, so we've got aj Brown
helmet to give away before he's not an Eagle anymore.
You can check it out at pristineauction dot com. All
you need to do is go to Betting Pros dot
com slash contest. That's how you get it. Complete the
form and either download the Betting Pros app, leave review
of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to our social
media channels at Betting Pros on x, on TikTok and
Betting Pros NFL on the IG. The more actions you complete,

(13:27):
the more entries you'll receive, and we'll be announcing the
winner right here on the channel. So make sure you
turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when
new episodes are up and you can claim your prize.
All right, My prize for everybody this week is the
SGP Bucky Irving to score plus money you're getting on
this plus one thirty, so lock me in. For that one,
I think Bucky definitely gets to the end zone in

(13:48):
this game. And the other thing I like the most,
the Baker Mayfield I int is a good one, but
I'm gonna play it a little bit safer with the
Kyle Pitts over five and a half receptions. You put
those two things together, you get plus two seventy nine.
And if you want to put your SGP together, we've
got the same game parlay builder tool available right now.
You can connect all of the different bets. It'll give
you a grade too, which I love in terms of

(14:08):
the correlation which things that'll even suggest to you. If
you like this bet, you should add this one along
with it if you're trying to build an SGP. So
let the tools help you. At bettingpros dot Com slash
Parlay Bogs. I already gave away my touchdown call Bucky
Irving plus one thirty. Who do you have for Thursday night?

Speaker 2 (14:24):
You mean tylent Algier plus one ninety five. He has
eight touchdowns this season. Buck Bejeon excuse me, only has seven.
So when they get down there near the goal line,
give it to the monster. And he is enormous. He
likes to run the guys over, specifically at the goal line.
So I love to see Tyler out here getting the
end zone. And it's paying almost double your money right
now plus one ninety five, So love that number.

Speaker 1 (14:46):
Okay, So there you have it, everybody. Make sure you
subscribe to the channel here at Betting Pros. Ring the
belt that goes ding again. Go to Betting Pros dot
com slash contest try to win that helmet perfect time here.
You know it's the season of giving, and of course
support our sponsor, hard Rock bat. That'll do it for us,
But the story of the game goes on for Scott Bog.
But I'm Joey p We'll see you next time. Kids.
Enjoy your Thursday night foot Paul Solo.

Speaker 4 (15:08):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Picks | Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Ep. 899)

Episode Transcript

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Picks | Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Ep. 899)