October 1, 2025 • 19 mins
Joey P. and Bogs are back with their Week 5 Thursday Night Football breakdown that focuses on the Rams-49ers spread/ML, Matthew Stafford’s Pass TDs, Kyren Williams’ rushing line, and how San Francisco’s injuries (Nick Bosa, WR room) change our card. We also hit props on Brock Purdy, Brian Robinson, and Jordan Whittington. We close the show with same-game parlay ideas and TD calls for Christian McCaffrey and Davante Adams.
Timestamps (may be off due to ads):
Intro - 0:00:00
Nick Chubb Helmet Giveaway - 0:01:06
Rams vs. 49ers Game Bets - 0:02:06
Hard Rock Bet - 0:05:58
Kyren WIlliams O/U 67.5 RuYds - 0:08:00
Brian Robinson O/U 15.5 RuYds - 0:09:51
Jordan Whittington O/U 12.5 RecYds - 0:12:03
Brock Purdy O/U 21.5 Completions - 0:13:05
Matthew Stafford O/U 1.5 Pass TDs - 0:14:31
Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:16:17
Same Game Parlays - 0:16:42
TD Calls - 0:17:48
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
And this meet Joey p Joe Pi's Apia and this
is BP NFL. It's Thursday Night Football and we've got
a really good.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
One on tap.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And of course to help break it down is my
boy Scott Bog. And make sure you subscribe to the channel,
make sure you leave your comments.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Below and like this video. We appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
We're trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers this
year on the channel.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And Bogs come off a really hot Sunday into Monday.
Let me tell you a double hitter.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
On Monday, we did the show, We put the show out,
beautiful thing, five and oh if you only had bet
all of them together.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Still just a few games under.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Five hundred for the year, but the five and zero
Monday Night Football double hit was pretty pretty good.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
There, Bogs.
Speaker 4 (00:44):
We're seeing the field well right now. Doesn't mean that's
gonna stay h but we'll take it. College was decent
this weekend as well, So good weekend. I uh will
move on to the next one. But just like just
like the bad weekends, you burn the good ones and
we're on this week.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
It just like the giveaways too.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
We burn those and we give away more scrap because
the Alvin Kamara Saints helmet giveaway is gone. That's right.
The winner is Adam. Adam, Congratulations. We'll be contacting you
with that prize, so stay on the lookout. Congratulations again
to Adam who won the signed Alvia Kamara helmet from
our good friends at Pristine Auction dot com. And as
(01:22):
the sun is setting on one of the great running
backs of our generation, Nick Chubb Brown's helmet is up
next for free Pristine Auction dot com. That's the place
where can get all the coolest stuff that's autographed helmets,
jerseys and more So. How do you win the Nick
Chubb autograph Brown's helmet, Well, you go to Bettingpros dot
com slash contest like Adam did, complete the form and
(01:43):
either download the Betting Pros app, leave a review of
the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to our social media
channels at Betting Pros on X, on TikTok and Betting
Pros NFL on the IG. The more actions you complete,
the more entries you'll receive, and we'll be announcing the
winner again next month. Right here on the channel. So
make sure you ring that beltill it goes day so
you never miss a piece of content. And we can
let you know if you are the big winner of
(02:04):
this month's new October giveaway. Let's take a look at
the tail of the tape. In Division game a big
one here Thursday night football. We got the Rams three
and one. We got the Friday nine Ers three and one.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
If they're not stupid.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Loss that knock me out of my survivor pools, all right. Anyway,
three and one teams here in Division is a huge game.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Here.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
You're getting plus five and a half here on San
Francisco at plus one oh one. You're getting minus five
at home here for the Rams. Again, not much of
a quote unquote home field advantage for the Rams, but
it's better than the Chargers forty six and a half
for the over, forty seven and a half for the
under on vetting pros consensus line, and then plus two
thirty which is tempting for the upset. We are on
(02:44):
opposite ends of this game, Bogs. I am on the
San France side, the plus five and a half. I
know Piersoll's banged up. I know Purdy just came back.
I just feel like these games get real close. I
think San fran Is gonna leave it all hanging out
there too. I know it's a short week, but the
t is not a big deal. They're still in the
state of California, so that's not as big of a
deal as traveling to the East Coast for either of
(03:06):
these teams. So I do think somehow the forty nine
ers find a way to keep this close. And the
forty nine ers always give the.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Rams a hard time typically as well. So that's my take.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Let's hear yours, because I know we're on opposite ends
of the spectrum, so somebody's going.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
To be right this week, right, Well, these division games
get weird, so this is not my favorite game to bet.
Thursday nights have really become the bane of my existence
in terms of picking a team to win here. I
feel like I've been getting these wrong this whole season,
but this is how I see this game. The Niners
are super banged up, Nick Bosa going out. They had
(03:41):
I think three hurries and one QB hit last week,
no sacks against the Jaguars, and there's just two banged
up on offense right like this is where you see
some of all these parts of these guys all getting hurt.
Welsh has the funny meme of, you know, Christian McCaffrey
as the which pulling the life force out of all
(04:02):
of his teammates and all of that because they keep
getting hurt to let CMC survive. Here, it seems I
just think that this line is too good for the
Rams right now. Jared Verse and Fisk and everybody has
been making things a problem for opposing oh lines, And
I just who is who is getting the ball for
(04:25):
the Niners right now? It's CMC and nobody. It's CMC
and a bunch of water boys out there right now.
Everybody's hurt for this team. It's on short rest. They're
on the road, which you know, I don't really I'm
with you in the terms of the home field advantage
for the Rams is never that that big of an advantage.
But the Niners lost at home to the Jaguars who
had to go all the way across the country last week.
(04:47):
So I just don't I don't believe in the Niners
right now. I think the Rams are a better team.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
I know it.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
Short rest for Matt Stafford with the back but again,
I'm gonna stick to props on this one. I don't
like Thursday night game, so don't like there's any divisional games.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
They have been tough.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
But yeah, I'm I'm on the Rams side here if
I have to pick.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Okay, so opposite ends of the spectrum.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
But I'm a little bit more bullish about my side
than Boxes about his. Like I said, I just these
games are always tight. These teams are built to play
each other. You're one hundred percent right, And everything you're
saying about the health of the forty nine ers is
a problem. The amount of touches that Christan McCaffrey got
on Sunday coming into today is a problem.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
I know we're gonna talk more about that.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Don't you bring that logic into this. This is a
divisional game.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
You listen here, son, you.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Take the bag getting negative seven yards, still want a
game in division?
Speaker 3 (05:41):
These division games don't make no sense.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
They don't. They don't.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
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(06:06):
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Speaker 1 (07:19):
So let's take a look.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Here at where we are again. I'm zero in two
again last week on the SGJOEPS. I've got to get better,
just two and six on the season. I thought turning
it down to the two would be good.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
JK. Dobbins went over, that was easy. You didn't get
the touchdown. All the RJ. Harvey stuff.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Why did they build tall buildings in Vegas? Show?
Speaker 1 (07:39):
It's my It's why.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
But again, good week for Box five and Ohero and
seven and three between the two shows between Thursday and
Monday Night Football. And by the way, audience members who
are watching and listening now, Sunday Night Football show is
officially going to turn into Monday Night Football. I could
did last week, so going forward instead of Sunday Night
Football where we were breaking down Monday Night Football every weekend.
So we'll get ready for that. And let's start with
(08:02):
the running backs here for this Thursday night. Kyen Williams
sixty seven and a half rushing yards. Bob, do you
want to go over or under?
Speaker 4 (08:09):
We got the overfest this week here. This is like
the octover fest is what we're gonna call out here. Look,
Kyron Williams San Francisco right now is allowing one hundred
and fifteen and a half yards per game rushing. The
last two games that the Rams played against the Niners
in the regular season, twenty four and twenty nine carries
for Kyron in those games. So he is the game
(08:32):
plan against the Niners typically, you know, very good pass
rush there, but sixty six rushing yards is the minimum
he has in games this year. You're asking for two
more yards than that. And if this game goes like
I think it's going to, I think there's a lot
of running in the second half of the rams because
I think they kind of run away with this game.
So to me, I think Kyron can hit this, you know,
(08:56):
with a lot of work, and he always gets a
lot of work.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Boggs, what about the presence of Blake Koram Does that
scare you at all? Or do you think that maybe
Korn's are working so much saving Karen Williams a little
bit for a game like this in division that's so
crucial for the playoff run.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
I mean, I think we'll see korm right and h
I think they're mixing him in more, which is a
smart decision, right, Too many carries for Kyron twenty four
and twenty nine against the Niners defense is not a
good strategy. You know, It's it's fine, it's what gets
you the win. It gets you the win, but it's
not a good strategy for your running back. So but
I mean, I think he can get this on twenty touches,
(09:33):
which is typically what's he gets specifically in a game
where I feel like they're going to control the clock
because they get a lot of three and outs from
the niners banged up offense. So I think Kyron just
I think he has a lot of workload, even if
korm is getting worked in, just because I think they're
going to have the ball a lot.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
All right, let's talk a little bit about the backfield
of the San Francisco forty nine ers, because Boggs, we
did mention at the top thirty one touches for McCaffrey.
Now it's a short week, so Brian Robinson fifteen and
a half rushing yards is the prop right now we're
looking at now just for.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
S's and g's.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
In week two, he goes over this with twenty in
week three with twenty two, and in week four also
twenty one. So this seems like a really good timing
here for Brian Robinson.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Over if not now, when I know we just said
that about Penn State and they lost, right, But if
not now, when why do you go and trade for
Brian Robinson? Right if you are not going to use
him in a game specifically like this, CMC is coming
off with thirty one touches. He's getting in the ball way, way,
(10:38):
way too much to start the year. Because everybody on
this Diners team is hurt. You have to take the
ball away from him a little bit. And Brian Robinson
is a very good running back. Still he's not seem
seeing nobody is, but he's very very good, and I
just think that they have to start giving him the
ball a little bit more. You are going to wear
out Christian McCaffrey before halfway through the season if he
(11:01):
keeps getting thirty one touches, specifically on short rest. So
I think I think there's no way. This is my
favorite of all my bets fifteen and a half. I
think he easily sails over this because he should have
ten rushes in this game. He should have ten rushing attempts.
Your ideas should be keep the ball away from Matt Stafford.
That should be your your ideal forty nine ers scenario,
(11:24):
which means running the ball and you can't give it
to CMC on short rest that much. So I really
feel good about this one.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Yeah, in some markets too, I'm even seeing some of
that movement where the forty nine ers are getting you know,
seven points by the way, too, just as we're recording this,
so putting that out there. So keep an eye on
this line as it continues to move.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
He gets over a touchdown, it might start barking up
the other tree.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
But well, plus seven is the number I just saw
pop up just now when we were like just kind
of refreshing some things here and this.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
You know, things are happening lot.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
This is in streaming. I'm not affecting the market that much.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Shoot, come on, my god, you talk the market moves.
It's unbelievable. You're like a young Jim Kramer. All right,
let's talk about a guy.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Maybe people aren't necessarily paying attention to Jordan Whittington. He's
got a receiving yard prop of twelve and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Why do you think he can go over on this?
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Because he played so many snaps last week eighty two
percent of snaps last week, I know to two out.
Well had the big, big, you know, play, So maybe
they give him a couple more. But let's put him
at seventy percent in this week. And I feel like
this team is going to be dowt or. This team
has an easy chance to throw the ball because Nick
(12:33):
Bosa is not putting pressure on anybody. Mikel Williams, their
other rookie who has been really good, is also banged
up going in this game. Those their two best pass
rushers in this game. Matt Stafford is gonna be able
to sit back there and pick these guys apart. So
I think let's get him two catches. I think wit
do you think he get two catches if he's out
(12:54):
there seventy percent of the time and Stafford has time
to look through his progressions, which he's going to. I
think Whittington can easily pass this when he can get
this on one catch as well.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
So Whittington's on the board. What about brock Perdy, how
do you want to approach him?
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Obviously some good and some bad moments there, but as
you mentioned earlier, are a lot of questions about who's
healthy and who's there to really help his stats.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
So twenty one and a half past.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Completions, how do you want to you want to go over?
He said, it's an overfest, So why is this one
in over?
Speaker 4 (13:22):
This one isn't over because I think everything's going to
be short, right, Like I think it's going to be
a lot of tan just over the middle, a lot
of short routes to Christian McCaffrey, and you know, with
like Jennings maybe your only healthy wide receiver out there,
there's going to be a lot of stuff to like
sky Moore and those guys, Like what are we getting
down to on this roster for the Niners, right, So
(13:45):
I think it's going to be a lot of easy, short,
quick hitting routes, keep that clock moving, that type that
type of stuff, because I mean, after it's Kendrick Bourne.
Sky Moore had twelve percent DeMarcus Robinson's, so he's a
vet at least, but.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
A lot of the day.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
I mean maybe maybe this prop it'll say because guys
can catch the ball, but I just think they're gonna
get down.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
I think they're going to pass the ball a lot.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
And brock perty in his two starts this year twenty
two of thirty eight and twenty six of thirty five,
so well over thirty attempts in both those games. So
if they're playing from behind, a lot of passing in
the second half.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
I had my ton just taking out in middle school,
by the way, and they didn't even give me an
ice creak for it.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
It's terrible.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
All right, let's get to the last prop here, Matthew
Stafford over one and a half passing touchdowns. The juice
is heavy on this one, but again you can always
pair with something else.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
It's minus one.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Forty five, so look, Stafford's been pretty solid, you know,
he's in fact. More on Stafford in just a moment
we get to the sg JOEP for the week, because
I'm in on Stafford this week too, especially with Bosa out.
I feel like, again, this is the opportunity here for
him to throw the football a lot. That pass rush
is not going to be quite the same. So let's
talk about this number in Stafford. Why you like this
one so much?
Speaker 4 (15:00):
Well, this one, I'm giving myself a cop out here,
all right. We have no props for pass catchers for
the Niners at all, so they're all gone. I'm looking
through these things. I'm like, I want to take an
under here. I want to be the undertaker. And look
I was five and oh with a couple of hunders
yeah last week, so I want to keep that continuing.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
But they're all The Bengals will give you every over
you could possibly ask for, every over, everything except that JK.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Dobbins touchdown. That's the only thing I can't get.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
But we got the over yards the under receiving, so
rush did. So look, just take this one. This is
one that you pair. The juice is not great on
this it's minus one forty I think minus one thirty
somewhere in that range. Probably gonna be worse with the
spread moving towards the rams anyway. So this is just
something that you add with something else. That's all this is.
(15:52):
So I think this one hits fairly easily. All you
need is for them not to get down to the
one two or three times and hand that ball to
Kyne a bunch or quorum, which is typically what happens.
They get down there and Kyen has just taken eight
carries to get there, and he goes to get a
gatorade and Korm scores the touchdown.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
That's been driving me nuts for all my Kirene shares.
But yeah, that's not.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
The best, all right, So don't forget everybody. If you
need more help too, prop bet cheat sheet is always
there for you. Go to bettingpros dot com slash.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
Props or just download the app again.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
You can sort them by game, you can sort them
by type, passing rushing, receiving all the categories you want,
and it takes the projections along with the best possible
lines you're gonna find, and then you can make the
best possible bet. So use the prop bet cheat sheet.
It's literally cheating. We're helping you cheat. So I mean,
come on, that's the answers to the test right there.
Let's go all right, let's move on here to the
(16:43):
sg JOEP and again I'm gonna stay with the forty
nine ers. In fact, now it's even better because I'm
able to get an even better line with the plus
seven I'm seeing right now. So I'm loving life right now.
So you can get right now the seven. I've got
this locked in at five and a half. But I'll
show you this number two. With the seven, it's gonna
(17:03):
go up a little bit more so, sanfran plus five
and a half, which is what the number was we
started this show here today, you're getting that at plus
one hundred. Then Matthew Stafford over two thirty two and
a half passing yards at minus one fourteen. No, look,
he's gone over this three of his first four games.
I think he goes over it easily in this one.
I think that you only when he did not go
over this, by the way, was against the Eagles, pretty
(17:23):
good defense last time I checked.
Speaker 4 (17:24):
The only reason I didn't take that one, Joe is
because I think they get up a lot, so he
has to have it.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
And because at first half, right yeah, because I think
are I think we're gonna take this over. And DeVante
Adams his favorite targeting the red zone plus one fifteen
to score a touchdown. You put those things together, you're
getting more than five to one.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
And with the seven now maybe it's even a little
bit more of a cushion.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
So check that out right now. And it's time for
touchdown calls. And I already kind of gave mine away.
DeVante Adams plus one fifteen. That's where I'm going, Bogs,
where are you going for your touchdown call?
Speaker 3 (17:54):
This week?
Speaker 4 (17:54):
Never been more annoyed by a touchdown call because I
didn't see that you had Davante. I went and I
looked like Davante, I'm settling on it's DeVante.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
And then I go to the sheet and you have
DeVante plus one. Damn it.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
You can right out with me and called we can
both bet that that's my favorite call.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
So I'm just gonna say.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
That it's also Bogman's favorite call too.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
And that that is I mean, it's on your your parlay,
so obviously I like your parlay as well.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
Outside of on the RAMS side, that's okay, but uh seven.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Let's go now seven and come on, now, let's just
go with Christian McCaffrey plus four to fifty.
Speaker 4 (18:27):
They're giving him the ball way too much. The scripted
drive usually scores the first one. Let's hope the Niners
get the ball first and can score on that scripted
drive to start the game with CMC. So who else
is going to score that touchdown? Maybe Tan just but
uh it's plus four fifty, Like, let's just sprinkle a
little on that and see if.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
It hits there.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
You go to sprinkle a little, see if it hits everybody,
and again, don't forget same game parlay tool also available
on the Betting Pros apps, so download it think your
sports books for free, don't be a tool, use the
tools a Betting Pros and of course make sure you
go to the contest too with the new giveaway for
this month, get in on that. Go subscribe everywhere to
all of our social media spots there and to the
channel as well. We're trying to get to one hundred thousand.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
Hit that like button.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
We appreciate you.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Scott Bogman, I'm Joey P.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
We'll see you next time.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Kids.
Speaker 5 (19:15):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Speaker 3 (19:28):
Also subscribe to our YouTube
Speaker 5 (19:30):
Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
And this meet Joey p Joe Pi's Apia and this
is BP NFL. It's Thursday Night Football and we've got
a really good.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
One on tap.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And of course to help break it down is my
boy Scott Bog. And make sure you subscribe to the channel,
make sure you leave your comments.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Below and like this video. We appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
We're trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers this
year on the channel.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And Bogs come off a really hot Sunday into Monday.
Let me tell you a double hitter.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
On Monday, we did the show, We put the show out,
beautiful thing, five and oh if you only had bet
all of them together.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Still just a few games under.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Five hundred for the year, but the five and zero
Monday Night Football double hit was pretty pretty good.
Speaker 3 (00:43):
There, Bogs.
Speaker 4 (00:44):
We're seeing the field well right now. Doesn't mean that's
gonna stay h but we'll take it. College was decent
this weekend as well, So good weekend. I uh will
move on to the next one. But just like just
like the bad weekends, you burn the good ones and
we're on this week.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
It just like the giveaways too.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
We burn those and we give away more scrap because
the Alvin Kamara Saints helmet giveaway is gone. That's right.
The winner is Adam. Adam, Congratulations. We'll be contacting you
with that prize, so stay on the lookout. Congratulations again
to Adam who won the signed Alvia Kamara helmet from
our good friends at Pristine Auction dot com. And as
(01:22):
the sun is setting on one of the great running
backs of our generation, Nick Chubb Brown's helmet is up
next for free Pristine Auction dot com. That's the place
where can get all the coolest stuff that's autographed helmets,
jerseys and more So. How do you win the Nick
Chubb autograph Brown's helmet, Well, you go to Bettingpros dot
com slash contest like Adam did, complete the form and
(01:43):
either download the Betting Pros app, leave a review of
the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to our social media
channels at Betting Pros on X, on TikTok and Betting
Pros NFL on the IG. The more actions you complete,
the more entries you'll receive, and we'll be announcing the
winner again next month. Right here on the channel. So
make sure you ring that beltill it goes day so
you never miss a piece of content. And we can
let you know if you are the big winner of
(02:04):
this month's new October giveaway. Let's take a look at
the tail of the tape. In Division game a big
one here Thursday night football. We got the Rams three
and one. We got the Friday nine Ers three and one.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
If they're not stupid.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Loss that knock me out of my survivor pools, all right. Anyway,
three and one teams here in Division is a huge game.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Here.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
You're getting plus five and a half here on San
Francisco at plus one oh one. You're getting minus five
at home here for the Rams. Again, not much of
a quote unquote home field advantage for the Rams, but
it's better than the Chargers forty six and a half
for the over, forty seven and a half for the
under on vetting pros consensus line, and then plus two
thirty which is tempting for the upset. We are on
(02:44):
opposite ends of this game, Bogs. I am on the
San France side, the plus five and a half. I
know Piersoll's banged up. I know Purdy just came back.
I just feel like these games get real close. I
think San fran Is gonna leave it all hanging out
there too. I know it's a short week, but the
t is not a big deal. They're still in the
state of California, so that's not as big of a
deal as traveling to the East Coast for either of
(03:06):
these teams. So I do think somehow the forty nine
ers find a way to keep this close. And the
forty nine ers always give the.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Rams a hard time typically as well. So that's my take.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Let's hear yours, because I know we're on opposite ends
of the spectrum, so somebody's going.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
To be right this week, right, Well, these division games
get weird, so this is not my favorite game to bet.
Thursday nights have really become the bane of my existence
in terms of picking a team to win here. I
feel like I've been getting these wrong this whole season,
but this is how I see this game. The Niners
are super banged up, Nick Bosa going out. They had
(03:41):
I think three hurries and one QB hit last week,
no sacks against the Jaguars, and there's just two banged
up on offense right like this is where you see
some of all these parts of these guys all getting hurt.
Welsh has the funny meme of, you know, Christian McCaffrey
as the which pulling the life force out of all
(04:02):
of his teammates and all of that because they keep
getting hurt to let CMC survive. Here, it seems I
just think that this line is too good for the
Rams right now. Jared Verse and Fisk and everybody has
been making things a problem for opposing oh lines, And
I just who is who is getting the ball for
(04:25):
the Niners right now? It's CMC and nobody. It's CMC
and a bunch of water boys out there right now.
Everybody's hurt for this team. It's on short rest. They're
on the road, which you know, I don't really I'm
with you in the terms of the home field advantage
for the Rams is never that that big of an advantage.
But the Niners lost at home to the Jaguars who
had to go all the way across the country last week.
(04:47):
So I just don't I don't believe in the Niners
right now. I think the Rams are a better team.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
I know it.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
Short rest for Matt Stafford with the back but again,
I'm gonna stick to props on this one. I don't
like Thursday night game, so don't like there's any divisional games.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
They have been tough.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
But yeah, I'm I'm on the Rams side here if
I have to pick.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Okay, so opposite ends of the spectrum.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
But I'm a little bit more bullish about my side
than Boxes about his. Like I said, I just these
games are always tight. These teams are built to play
each other. You're one hundred percent right, And everything you're
saying about the health of the forty nine ers is
a problem. The amount of touches that Christan McCaffrey got
on Sunday coming into today is a problem.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
I know we're gonna talk more about that.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Don't you bring that logic into this. This is a
divisional game.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
You listen here, son, you.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Take the bag getting negative seven yards, still want a
game in division?
Speaker 3 (05:41):
These division games don't make no sense.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
They don't. They don't.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
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Speaker 1 (07:19):
So let's take a look.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Here at where we are again. I'm zero in two
again last week on the SGJOEPS. I've got to get better,
just two and six on the season. I thought turning
it down to the two would be good.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
JK. Dobbins went over, that was easy. You didn't get
the touchdown. All the RJ. Harvey stuff.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Why did they build tall buildings in Vegas? Show?
Speaker 1 (07:39):
It's my It's why.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
But again, good week for Box five and Ohero and
seven and three between the two shows between Thursday and
Monday Night Football. And by the way, audience members who
are watching and listening now, Sunday Night Football show is
officially going to turn into Monday Night Football. I could
did last week, so going forward instead of Sunday Night
Football where we were breaking down Monday Night Football every weekend.
So we'll get ready for that. And let's start with
(08:02):
the running backs here for this Thursday night. Kyen Williams
sixty seven and a half rushing yards. Bob, do you
want to go over or under?
Speaker 4 (08:09):
We got the overfest this week here. This is like
the octover fest is what we're gonna call out here. Look,
Kyron Williams San Francisco right now is allowing one hundred
and fifteen and a half yards per game rushing. The
last two games that the Rams played against the Niners
in the regular season, twenty four and twenty nine carries
for Kyron in those games. So he is the game
(08:32):
plan against the Niners typically, you know, very good pass
rush there, but sixty six rushing yards is the minimum
he has in games this year. You're asking for two
more yards than that. And if this game goes like
I think it's going to, I think there's a lot
of running in the second half of the rams because
I think they kind of run away with this game.
So to me, I think Kyron can hit this, you know,
(08:56):
with a lot of work, and he always gets a
lot of work.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Boggs, what about the presence of Blake Koram Does that
scare you at all? Or do you think that maybe
Korn's are working so much saving Karen Williams a little
bit for a game like this in division that's so
crucial for the playoff run.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
I mean, I think we'll see korm right and h
I think they're mixing him in more, which is a
smart decision, right, Too many carries for Kyron twenty four
and twenty nine against the Niners defense is not a
good strategy. You know, It's it's fine, it's what gets
you the win. It gets you the win, but it's
not a good strategy for your running back. So but
I mean, I think he can get this on twenty touches,
(09:33):
which is typically what's he gets specifically in a game
where I feel like they're going to control the clock
because they get a lot of three and outs from
the niners banged up offense. So I think Kyron just
I think he has a lot of workload, even if
korm is getting worked in, just because I think they're
going to have the ball a lot.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
All right, let's talk a little bit about the backfield
of the San Francisco forty nine ers, because Boggs, we
did mention at the top thirty one touches for McCaffrey.
Now it's a short week, so Brian Robinson fifteen and
a half rushing yards is the prop right now we're
looking at now just for.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
S's and g's.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
In week two, he goes over this with twenty in
week three with twenty two, and in week four also
twenty one. So this seems like a really good timing
here for Brian Robinson.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Over if not now, when I know we just said
that about Penn State and they lost, right, But if
not now, when why do you go and trade for
Brian Robinson? Right if you are not going to use
him in a game specifically like this, CMC is coming
off with thirty one touches. He's getting in the ball way, way,
(10:38):
way too much to start the year. Because everybody on
this Diners team is hurt. You have to take the
ball away from him a little bit. And Brian Robinson
is a very good running back. Still he's not seem
seeing nobody is, but he's very very good, and I
just think that they have to start giving him the
ball a little bit more. You are going to wear
out Christian McCaffrey before halfway through the season if he
(11:01):
keeps getting thirty one touches, specifically on short rest. So
I think I think there's no way. This is my
favorite of all my bets fifteen and a half. I
think he easily sails over this because he should have
ten rushes in this game. He should have ten rushing attempts.
Your ideas should be keep the ball away from Matt Stafford.
That should be your your ideal forty nine ers scenario,
(11:24):
which means running the ball and you can't give it
to CMC on short rest that much. So I really
feel good about this one.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Yeah, in some markets too, I'm even seeing some of
that movement where the forty nine ers are getting you know,
seven points by the way, too, just as we're recording this,
so putting that out there. So keep an eye on
this line as it continues to move.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
He gets over a touchdown, it might start barking up
the other tree.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
But well, plus seven is the number I just saw
pop up just now when we were like just kind
of refreshing some things here and this.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
You know, things are happening lot.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
This is in streaming. I'm not affecting the market that much.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Shoot, come on, my god, you talk the market moves.
It's unbelievable. You're like a young Jim Kramer. All right,
let's talk about a guy.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Maybe people aren't necessarily paying attention to Jordan Whittington. He's
got a receiving yard prop of twelve and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Why do you think he can go over on this?
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Because he played so many snaps last week eighty two
percent of snaps last week, I know to two out.
Well had the big, big, you know, play, So maybe
they give him a couple more. But let's put him
at seventy percent in this week. And I feel like
this team is going to be dowt or. This team
has an easy chance to throw the ball because Nick
(12:33):
Bosa is not putting pressure on anybody. Mikel Williams, their
other rookie who has been really good, is also banged
up going in this game. Those their two best pass
rushers in this game. Matt Stafford is gonna be able
to sit back there and pick these guys apart. So
I think let's get him two catches. I think wit
do you think he get two catches if he's out
(12:54):
there seventy percent of the time and Stafford has time
to look through his progressions, which he's going to. I
think Whittington can easily pass this when he can get
this on one catch as well.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
So Whittington's on the board. What about brock Perdy, how
do you want to approach him?
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Obviously some good and some bad moments there, but as
you mentioned earlier, are a lot of questions about who's
healthy and who's there to really help his stats.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
So twenty one and a half past.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Completions, how do you want to you want to go over?
He said, it's an overfest, So why is this one
in over?
Speaker 4 (13:22):
This one isn't over because I think everything's going to
be short, right, Like I think it's going to be
a lot of tan just over the middle, a lot
of short routes to Christian McCaffrey, and you know, with
like Jennings maybe your only healthy wide receiver out there,
there's going to be a lot of stuff to like
sky Moore and those guys, Like what are we getting
down to on this roster for the Niners, right, So
(13:45):
I think it's going to be a lot of easy, short,
quick hitting routes, keep that clock moving, that type that
type of stuff, because I mean, after it's Kendrick Bourne.
Sky Moore had twelve percent DeMarcus Robinson's, so he's a
vet at least, but.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
A lot of the day.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
I mean maybe maybe this prop it'll say because guys
can catch the ball, but I just think they're gonna
get down.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
I think they're going to pass the ball a lot.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
And brock perty in his two starts this year twenty
two of thirty eight and twenty six of thirty five,
so well over thirty attempts in both those games. So
if they're playing from behind, a lot of passing in
the second half.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
I had my ton just taking out in middle school,
by the way, and they didn't even give me an
ice creak for it.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
It's terrible.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
All right, let's get to the last prop here, Matthew
Stafford over one and a half passing touchdowns. The juice
is heavy on this one, but again you can always
pair with something else.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
It's minus one.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Forty five, so look, Stafford's been pretty solid, you know,
he's in fact. More on Stafford in just a moment
we get to the sg JOEP for the week, because
I'm in on Stafford this week too, especially with Bosa out.
I feel like, again, this is the opportunity here for
him to throw the football a lot. That pass rush
is not going to be quite the same. So let's
talk about this number in Stafford. Why you like this
one so much?
Speaker 4 (15:00):
Well, this one, I'm giving myself a cop out here,
all right. We have no props for pass catchers for
the Niners at all, so they're all gone. I'm looking
through these things. I'm like, I want to take an
under here. I want to be the undertaker. And look
I was five and oh with a couple of hunders
yeah last week, so I want to keep that continuing.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
But they're all The Bengals will give you every over
you could possibly ask for, every over, everything except that JK.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Dobbins touchdown. That's the only thing I can't get.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
But we got the over yards the under receiving, so
rush did. So look, just take this one. This is
one that you pair. The juice is not great on
this it's minus one forty I think minus one thirty
somewhere in that range. Probably gonna be worse with the
spread moving towards the rams anyway. So this is just
something that you add with something else. That's all this is.
(15:52):
So I think this one hits fairly easily. All you
need is for them not to get down to the
one two or three times and hand that ball to
Kyne a bunch or quorum, which is typically what happens.
They get down there and Kyen has just taken eight
carries to get there, and he goes to get a
gatorade and Korm scores the touchdown.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
That's been driving me nuts for all my Kirene shares.
But yeah, that's not.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
The best, all right, So don't forget everybody. If you
need more help too, prop bet cheat sheet is always
there for you. Go to bettingpros dot com slash.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
Props or just download the app again.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
You can sort them by game, you can sort them
by type, passing rushing, receiving all the categories you want,
and it takes the projections along with the best possible
lines you're gonna find, and then you can make the
best possible bet. So use the prop bet cheat sheet.
It's literally cheating. We're helping you cheat. So I mean,
come on, that's the answers to the test right there.
Let's go all right, let's move on here to the
(16:43):
sg JOEP and again I'm gonna stay with the forty
nine ers. In fact, now it's even better because I'm
able to get an even better line with the plus
seven I'm seeing right now. So I'm loving life right now.
So you can get right now the seven. I've got
this locked in at five and a half. But I'll
show you this number two. With the seven, it's gonna
(17:03):
go up a little bit more so, sanfran plus five
and a half, which is what the number was we
started this show here today, you're getting that at plus
one hundred. Then Matthew Stafford over two thirty two and
a half passing yards at minus one fourteen. No, look,
he's gone over this three of his first four games.
I think he goes over it easily in this one.
I think that you only when he did not go
over this, by the way, was against the Eagles, pretty
(17:23):
good defense last time I checked.
Speaker 4 (17:24):
The only reason I didn't take that one, Joe is
because I think they get up a lot, so he
has to have it.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
And because at first half, right yeah, because I think
are I think we're gonna take this over. And DeVante
Adams his favorite targeting the red zone plus one fifteen
to score a touchdown. You put those things together, you're
getting more than five to one.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
And with the seven now maybe it's even a little
bit more of a cushion.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
So check that out right now. And it's time for
touchdown calls. And I already kind of gave mine away.
DeVante Adams plus one fifteen. That's where I'm going, Bogs,
where are you going for your touchdown call?
Speaker 3 (17:54):
This week?
Speaker 4 (17:54):
Never been more annoyed by a touchdown call because I
didn't see that you had Davante. I went and I
looked like Davante, I'm settling on it's DeVante.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
And then I go to the sheet and you have
DeVante plus one. Damn it.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
You can right out with me and called we can
both bet that that's my favorite call.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
So I'm just gonna say.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
That it's also Bogman's favorite call too.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
And that that is I mean, it's on your your parlay,
so obviously I like your parlay as well.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
Outside of on the RAMS side, that's okay, but uh seven.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Let's go now seven and come on, now, let's just
go with Christian McCaffrey plus four to fifty.
Speaker 4 (18:27):
They're giving him the ball way too much. The scripted
drive usually scores the first one. Let's hope the Niners
get the ball first and can score on that scripted
drive to start the game with CMC. So who else
is going to score that touchdown? Maybe Tan just but
uh it's plus four fifty, Like, let's just sprinkle a
little on that and see if.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
It hits there.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
You go to sprinkle a little, see if it hits everybody,
and again, don't forget same game parlay tool also available
on the Betting Pros apps, so download it think your
sports books for free, don't be a tool, use the
tools a Betting Pros and of course make sure you
go to the contest too with the new giveaway for
this month, get in on that. Go subscribe everywhere to
all of our social media spots there and to the
channel as well. We're trying to get to one hundred thousand.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
Hit that like button.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
We appreciate you.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Scott Bogman, I'm Joey P.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
We'll see you next time.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Kids.
Speaker 5 (19:15):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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Speaker 3 (19:28):
Also subscribe to our YouTube
Speaker 5 (19:30):
Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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