Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody, the betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. This is Meet Joey p Joe Pi's Apia,
and this is BP NFL. It's Thursday Night Football. It's
Scott Bogmin and I are going to break down the game.
And this time it's personal because it's the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Scott Bogman's beloved Steelers will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals,
one of his more hated teams. They are not so
(00:23):
much as the Ravens, but I do.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Believe disrespect the Bengals more than you do any other
team in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
But you hate the Ravens. I feel like the Ravens
is like a hatred for you.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
I do hate the Ravens, but I'll tell you what,
beating Cincinnati in Cincinnati is my favorite thing that the
Steelers do, because then I get to watch all those
sad Bengals fans go down the escalator of sadness, right that,
that giant escalator from the third deck down to the
first deck to go to your crappy car. And you
(00:55):
still have to live in Kentucky, you know. That's That's
what I love about these Kentucky.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
I like that you threw that in there. All right,
Remember everybody, while you're watching the show, don't forget we
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you never miss an episode of Betting Pros. All right,
let's take a look at the tail of the tape
here in this contest on BP right now, the consensus
lined minus five and a half for the Pittsburgh Steelers
at plus one oh one, that's the best number you're getting,
and then plus five and a half minus one oh
two for Cincinnati over forty two and a half minus
one fifteen the under a forty three and a half
minus one oh eight minus two forty on the money
(02:05):
line for the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two thirty five for
the Bengals. I've had some strong opinions about the games,
the standalone games the last couple of weeks. Here this one.
I don't love the game itself. I gotta tell you,
I feel like this has a lot of range of
outcomes here. I think the Steelers have been beating up
on some teams that are kind of mid and Frankly, again,
Joe Flacco does change the dynamic here. He's a little
(02:27):
bit more dangerous than Jake Browning and he kind of
proved that last week, which is a couple of days
to prepare. So even though Bagman in the show sheet
wrote the words, come on, Joe, how could you do this? Basically,
come on? If I had a lean, the lean would
be taking the points of the Bengals. I don't think
they win this game. I think the Steelers do, but
five and a half in division games short week, you know,
(02:48):
in their own building. I think Cincinnati tries to make
some kind of a last stand. I don't think it's
all fall short. But when you have Jamar Chase and
T Higgins, there's even garbage time to come back in
these and that's why I don't think this five and
a half is necessarily safe. So honestly, I'm sure that
Bogman will disagree with this wholeheartedly, but it's always business
before personal here, So walk us through your thoughts on
(03:10):
this game, because I don't have a take on the
over under here. Again, I think it's a good number. Heating,
everything is pretty good. I'm not touching the total either,
But you think the five and a half on the
Steeler side minus five and a half is okay?
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I think it is. But I'll say this, You're right.
It's a Thursday night football game and it's Steelers Bangles.
It's divisional weird game. We just saw the Giants. The
favorite I believe the last three weeks in a row
is lost straight out on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
And I was on the Giants last week too. If
you were recall you were, and I said the same thing.
I was like in Division game last stand kind of feeling.
I was like, give it and I think I'm trying
to remember it was it six and a half. I
think it was six and a half we.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Were getting it doesn't matter. The Giants won the Giants.
Speaker 1 (03:49):
One, right, But I'm just saying it was the principle
of they're gonna give it everything they've got here in
Division game Thursday night, short week in their own building,
like they're gonna be out there rocking, and and I
think they sent them mess.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Don't they match up well? I think that. I think
that's what it is.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Nobody matches up well for them because unfortunately the Bengals
defense is terrible.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Well, Turner's been playing okay, but Hendrickson and BJ Hill
are less than one hundred percent. And that is, you
know too much. That's a fifty percent of your line
that already sucks, right like that. That it's it's that's
a difficult thing to overcome. Now, maybe TJ. Watt doesn't
play right. He was, he got hurt at the end
of the game last week. He didn't practice yesterday. On Tuesday,
(04:29):
we're recording this on Wednesday. Don't know what he's going
to do today, so he's questionable for this game as well.
There are a bunch of different mitigating circumstances that make
this not a great bet. I'll say that, But I
think with the you know, what's going on with Pittsburgh
and what's going on with Cincinnati or complete polar opposites.
Doesn't mean that Cincinnati can't win this game straight out
(04:52):
and at least beat the spread. But I just think
the way these two teams are going, the injuries that
the Bengals had to work through, specifically at the quarterback position,
just take away the defense. But the QB position, H
Flacco is a nice you know, I'm I'm as mad
as Tomlin was. Did you see Tomlin in his press conference?
(05:12):
And Tomlins, I don't know why you trade a starting
quarterback to a division opponent. Andrew Berry must be smarter
than us, you know. By the way, that was the
first trade between the Browns and Bengals ever ever? Did
you know that?
Speaker 1 (05:24):
And on top of that, I think it did send
a message to the rest of the Bengals, which is like, hey,
we we are not throwing in the towel on the
seats right, which I think matters, which is, again, do
they have enough necessarily to beat the Pittsburgh steal ours.
I don't think so, but I'll be damned if I'm
gonna take the five and a half of Pittsburgh. I
just don't feel like it's a confident thing. And to
that point, we have seen this trend time and time
again on these Thursday night games. We saw it just
(05:46):
last week we had these. I feel like it's deja
vu all over again.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
It might be like, and the Steelers love to get
into close games, make them one score games, and give
your boy a heart attack every single week. So that's
that's basically clee what happens. I just I think the
big mistake is made from the Bengals side. I don't
think it's made from the Steelers side. In this game,
Bengals are at home. It's weird game, so we'll see.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Yeah, it's the garbage time. Joe Flacco slinging the ball everywhere.
That really scares the pants off me. Knocking a lot,
and he's got Jamar Chase. I mean, go to be honest,
if Joe Flacco had Jamar Chase's whole career, I wonder
what that would have looked like. You know, he's gotta
be sitting there like, man, this is fun. Where was
this my whole life? You know, where was this?
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Ravens so well targets after four days of practice or
whatever is a pretty nice result there. We'll take that. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Well, more on Jamar Chase a little later. Before we
get to the props here, let's talk about hard Rock Bet,
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All right, next up here are the props. So let's
go through these here, bogs, let's talk about them. Last week,
you were three and two on the Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
And Jane Daniels fumble Joe, Yeah, is why I wasn't
four and one?
Speaker 1 (08:22):
You should have been for one.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
You should have been so aggravating.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
I was two, it is, and of course I was
over again last week on the SGPS. I mean, for
the record, I did tell everyone bet the Bijon stuff separately,
you know, add in debo for fun, but the official
one was debo. But it was the Bijeon yardage total
combined over and then the touchdown which basically got in
the first I don't know eight seconds of the game,
(08:46):
I feel like eight seconds in how many seconds and.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Took for it was a real fast eighty one yard touchdown.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
It really was. But anyway, again we keep it real
here on the show. So let's start here with Jalen Warren.
His prop is forty nine and a half for the
rushing yard. Do you want to go over or under this?
Speaker 2 (09:01):
We're going to go over that one. Now, Jalen was
out for the Island game, and he was eased back in,
I believe probably because this game was going to be
on short rest. They gave gain will six carries. He
also gave Caleb Johnson six carries. But Cincinnati twenty seventh
in rush yards allowed for game, twenty seventh in run
defense grade. And as I mentioned before, Trey Hendrickson questionable
(09:23):
and so is bj Hill, a big interior defender for
this defense. So I think a little less in that rotation.
I think Warren gets a little more work in this game,
and I think he can clear this fairly easily because
Cincinnati's run d hasn't been good with everybody out there,
and everybody might not be out there all right.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Speaking a running backs, Chase Brown has been a bit
of a frustrating asset in fantasy this year, that's for sure.
But again, now the dynamic of the offense might change
a little bit here. So let's talk about this offense.
Now that Joe Flacco's under center. The number for him
very low, forty four and a half rushing yards. You
want to go over under.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
There, We're going to go under on this one. Cincinnati's
dead last and rushing play percentage. Brown had thirty seven
carries in the first two weeks and has since had
thirty seven carries in four games. Could have been because
this game, but could have just been because this game
is on short rest. But p Ryan had six carries
to nine for Brown last week and he was in
(10:19):
thirty snaps. For thirty snaps, p Ryan was to thirty
five for Chase Brown, so it might have been to
pass block right. Joe Flacco is brand new there, but
none of these guys are very good at pass blocking
at all. Honestly, if you're gonna put somebody back there
at pass block, you might as well just stick a
tight end because the grades for these guys, I mean
for Chase Brown was like eighteen point eight and it
was like thirty four for Samaje p Ryan. These guys
(10:42):
have not been good at it. But Pittsburgh's un defense
has been decent this year, usually good. They did have
a bad game against Ken Walker. He went thirteen for
one oh five. But Judkins last league twelve for thirty six,
Mason was sixteen for fifty seven. I don't think Brown
gets so many carries in this Anderson eleven for twenty eight,
and then your Patriots combined, you know, Gibson four for
(11:05):
twenty eight, seven four for eighteen. You know, not much there,
and they held Sharps to fifteen rushes for ten yards
in that same game where they gave up all those
yards to Ken Walker. So I do expect Chase Brown
to become a better player with Joe Flacco at the helm,
but this is the first two weeks with them. It's
still barely over a week that he's been with this organization,
(11:25):
so I just don't think he's gonna run that much.
And you know, the spread says Bengal is going to
be down and playing from behind late, So that's just
fewer rushing opportunities for Chase Brown.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
I bet you're glad you already played the Patriots, now, huh,
that's already you know, want to play him going forward?
I bet not the way the Patriots look right now,
you glad that one's in the tank, don't You may
all see in the playoffs, their bogs.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Yeah, right, like either one of us is going to
make it past the first round.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
Hey, both teams are in first place as of today.
Just saying say.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Maybe the Auto, maybe the Auto passed the first We'll see,
all right.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
The Cininnai are the worst team in the NFL in
terms of giving up fantasy points by the way to
opposing tight ends. Therefore, I've already done a video talking
about John new Smith plus three sixty for a touchdown
in this game. But Boggs has a different tight end
that he wants to talk about. So I'm gonna let
you unleash the beast of Darnell Washington on the people
(12:19):
Big wash.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
His number is eighteen and a half receiving yards. If
y'all never watched Darnell Washington, he is a six offensive lineman.
As a tight end.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
He is I'll never forget his combine when he was
doing the sled and I couldn't believe the power of
that human. I was like, this guy's a tight end.
I was like, look at this guy's unbelievable. I'll never
forget it.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
My favorite thing is watching all of these streamers that
you know, they just watch the NFL. They don't watch
the combine or any of that stuff. So they don't
know who Darnell Washington is and they're going, who is
this dude? Why is this old lineman running patterns down
the field. But in the last two weeks, Wash has
(13:03):
been your leader in snaps for the Steelers. They finally
unleashed him. He went from under fifty percent snap rate
in the first three weeks to ninety percent two weeks
ago and eighty percent last week. In those two games,
he mainly blocks, but he ran sixteen and eighteen routes.
He was targeted three times against Minnesota and five times
last week against the brown since he doesn't blitz a lot.
(13:27):
But Washington played more than John and Firemouth two weeks
in a row. And he's just become part of this
Arthur Smith game plan right now. And I tell you
who else loves him, Aaron Rodgers, because that gives him
another offensive lineman and he wants to reward that dude
for blocking most of the time. So he had made
it a point to give Big Wash a couple targets
(13:47):
here in these games. And I gotta tell you he's
ignored in the past game a lot. Last week they
started with a pass to Darnell Washington for like fifteen
yards because they just dated think he was running a route.
They thought he was going downfield the block for the run,
and they ignored him and he was wide open.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
I still feel like the Steelers offense runs like it
would in nineteen ninety five. It's very nineteen it's a
very like nineties Madden offense. I feel like, tell me
I'm wrong, man, tell me.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
You're not wrong. I hate it. I've never d this offense.
It's Arthur Smith's offense.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
It is, it's so Madden ninety five like that's.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Look, I don't I didn't like Bruce arians right because
I thought he spread it out too much and he
got Ben killed. The offensive line was bad for most
of Ben's career, and he got him murdered and injured
a bunch. But I don't want to just go to
ground and pound like we're army. You know this is
a little absurd, but uh, you know it's working right
(14:43):
now there. For and one, I'm not complaining.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
Who was on the cover of Madden ninety five. You
want to take a.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Guess Madden ninety five was that just like the original Madden.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
It wasn't I don't think it was the original.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
No, it was a okay, hold on, hold on? Was
it Garrison Hurst?
Speaker 1 (14:57):
No, it was still John Madden.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
So it was change.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
When did it change over? I'm looking right now, like
what year was that I thought it would so Madden
ninety seven, I was he on there in ninety nine.
I seem to remember them all the way up.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
I think there was because it was when Game Day
came out they started having the player on the cover.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
I think, and that's what changed. That's a great documentary.
By the way, if you're a football nerd, did you
watch that the EA Sports one about Madden? Everybody out there,
I'm telling you right now watching the program today, listening
to the program watch this. I'm try to remember the
name of it. I'll pull it up there. But it
was Eddie George was the first guy, Eddie George. But
that was part of that. They talked about that war
(15:37):
between them and Game Day, and they talked about developing
the game. It was like a four part series. But
if you grew up with that game as we did,
and the evolution of it, and it's it's a must watch,
super entertaining. In fact, I'm probably gonna rewatch it again.
This all right, let's talk about Jamar Chase this one.
I've already put a video out on as well. I
(15:57):
am in on the over on this at seventy three
and a half for sea even yards, I think. And
it's funny because it was less. It was sixty nine
and a half when I put the show together yesterday.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
It was seventy and a half last night when I
was putting this together.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah, now it's every three and a half. So get
it well against good folks.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Yeah, yeah, And this is look just Flacco has never
been afraid to force the ball to his favorite target.
And Chase had twelve targets last week. And the Steelers
secondary is actually much improved. They signed Darius Slay in
the offseason, they traded for Jalen Ramsey, but both those
guys are banged up. I think they'll both play, but
they're both clearly less than one hundred percent. And there's
(16:36):
just been some big games for your target leaders against Pittsburgh.
Judy is the only number one target that hasn't hit
this number against Pittsburgh. Garrett Wilson nine targets, seven catches,
ninety five in a touchdown JSN eight for one oh
three and Cup seven for ninety. In that same game,
even your boy Hunter Henry had eight for ninety and
two scores. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison went for over
(17:00):
for one hundred yards and Fannin had ten targets and
had seven catches for eighty one yards against the Steelers.
So your your leader in targets against Pittsburgh has cleared
this every time except last week we're Cleveland, Jerry Judy
dropped two or three balls. I mean, just the dude
has no hands. It is becoming ridiculous. But everybody else
(17:21):
has passed it, and I expect Jamar Chase to pass
this as well.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
It's in the game on Amazon Prime. That is the
the series Fantastic five stars, amazing, amazing insights about John Madden,
why he wanted it to look good in certain things,
and why you know it's it's John Madden who really
did make the game what it was.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
You know, Yeah, I mean even wanted to make.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
It like a seven on seventy. He's like, well that's
not football. Yeah, they they wouldn't do that.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
He is the reason maybe I did watch this because
now this is coming back to me. I know the
if it's in the game, it's in the game. That's
that was from Matt and he said, if it's in
our game, I want to in our game.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
Yeah, it's amazing. And then the other of it. Then
the game day stuff was really interesting and putting the
players on it, not John Madden and all also just
just fantastic and a good friend of mine now is
one of the main guys over there in terms of
player profiling. Matt Franciskovic used to write for The Black Book,
used to work for NFL dot com for years, and
it's amazing to see the evolution, Like his job is
(18:19):
to make player ratings, like that's that's what he's like
the head of that. It's unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
Welsh And I played a nail binder Madden.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
Oh yeah, how's that going the streams on Twitch Fantasy Pros,
Twitch dot tv, Slash Fantasy Pros. So this is annoying
to me. So this is like my idea and I
don't get to play. Why don't I get to play?
Like we should talk fantasy and betting and stuff while
we played Madden. It would be fun. And the next thing,
I don't know what you're doing.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
It if you want to play Welsh next week, I'll
do play by play.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
You know what, maybe I want to do play by
play with you two yokos. That could be fun too, Okay, yeah,
you know, just kind of ease my way into it.
Figure it out, all right. Aaron Rodgers last, but certainly least,
let's talk about him here passing touchdowns. The numbers one
and a half over or under?
Speaker 2 (19:03):
Yeah, over, I mean, since he has allowed thirteen passing
touchdowns this season. A rod has hit this in three
or five games. Flacco in Week one in Jordan Love
last week were the only two that haven't hit this
against Cincy, so Flacco when Flacco was playing for Cleveland
in Week one. Who is now the quarterback of Sincy.
By the way, if you didn't catch that, but the
(19:24):
Steelers have ten passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns this year,
so when you get down there, it's usually a rod
wanting the glory. So I think they're going to continue
with that. And he has more than two more than
one and a half passing touchdowns because Cincinnati's defense has
not been good at all.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Yeah, I don't think that's a hard sell. I think
this is actually a very good bet right here.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
This is when you just add with something. I feel like,
like the juice isn't even that good in most spots.
The best I found was minus one twenty, but minus
won thirties in most places. So this is just like
a tack on to something else.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
Yeah, no, I like it. Or if you'll just take
him with the money line, you put shoot things together
and just keep it real simple.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Couldn't do that, Yeah, you can do that. I couldn't
find it. But I also, you know, the defensive props
has just been coming out later and later for these games.
But Nick herbig over half a sack, if you can
find that somewhere. TJ. Watt questionable. He dusted Cleveland twice
last week. The dude is just he know what he is,
a Tasmanian devil.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
Low key. I kind of like Aaron Rodgers' touchdown prop
this week of plus fifteen hundred, like only because I
feel like it's like, I don't know why I have
this terrible vision of Aaron Rodgers just like running some
weird bootleg and just kind of walking into the end
zone because Cincinnati's a hot mess defensively.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
So that's a great I love this vision.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
I know, it's like one of the you know what,
I might have to bet that just for s's and g's.
I mean, it's so much, you know, like why not
just put half? Why not? It? There you go. Also,
don't forget prop bet cheat sheet. That's gonna give you
all the s's and the g's and all the insights
you possibly need to score on your props. Go to
bettingpros dot com slash props or just download the Betting
Pros app and check out the prop bet cheat sheet.
(21:03):
Get all the best values on the projections for passing, rushing, receiving,
all the categories, the best line and the best house
to bet them in. So that's what you do. Sink
your sports books for free on Betting Pros and use
the promp bet cheat sheet to help you unlock all
the best in the world of props. All right, once again,
I'm gonna try to keep this simple for the SG.
Joey p Ice cold baby I am. I am colder
(21:27):
than the relationship between Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown. That's
how cold I am right now. Huh give me the over,
jamar cha. And this pisses me off too, because this
was three point fifty when I put it in two
days ago, and now because it's seventy three and a
half and the odds of change now it's plus two
twenty three. But that's it. I'm just I gotta keep
it real now. I already betted at the three fifty
one when it was a smaller number at sixty nine
(21:47):
and a half. So I'm gonna give that to myself
because I was in on this early. So if I
get sixty nine and a half and the Jamar Chase touchdown,
I'm still calling it a win. But I think we
can get seventy three and a half anyway. So here
we go. Jamar Chase score a touchdown, Jamar Chase to
go over seventy three and a half. Those are my
favorite bets. You put him together to get two twenty three.
Not as sexy as the plus three fifty one. But
(22:07):
what am I gonna do? This is all I can do.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
I already zacto? Can I have been an exacto for
Jamar Chase have seventy two yards? Sure? Is that is
that possible?
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Sure? Go for it, jerk all right? So obviously my
touchdown call is Jamar Chase at plus one forty five.
But in all transparency, I did just bet Aaron Rodgers
plus fifteen hundred two. I don't know why. I just
got this weird feeling about it, and if he does,
it will be the only happy moment I have of
Aaron bringing me joy.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Yeah, you'll start your miss Cleo line. If that happens.
Call Joey now him reading.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Why not? Hey throw a buck on it too, get
you fifteen bucks for nothing for fun. That's that's what
you do, all right. So Bog's jamar Chase is my
touchdown call plus one forty five. I also gave the
bonus to I think John is a really good one.
But I feel like you're going somewhere else for a
touchdown call.
Speaker 2 (22:58):
Yeah, look, I think just there there's two easy ones here,
or there's one really easy one. I think the best
bet for a touchdown is t Higgins. He's had more
end zone targets than anybody else between these two teams,
and you're doubling up with a little extra juice plus
two twenty Yeah a touchdown, So I think that's the
best touchdown bet. But big Wash is plus three fifty.
(23:19):
They're using him more. He doesn't have any end zone
targets yet, but they're using him more and more. He's
definitely gonna be in in goal line packages. I think
this could be the week. So I'm gonna have a
little cheese on big Wash to score one as well.
Darnout Washington and plus three fifty. But I do think
t Higgins a plus two twenty is a very goodbye.
So that's that's my official call. But I also like
(23:42):
big Wash here.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
Yeah it's weird too because I actually like the under
for the Flacco yardage, but I like the over for
Jamar Chase. I just feel like it's all going to Chase.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
I know it's not going to get sicky. I know
it's out for that year now, so.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
I know, I know it feels like a like a
weird like it shouldn't be, you know, like, well, you
can't possibly like the under on Flacco, but the over
on Chase, I'm like, yes again, yes again, he can
still get the two hundred and one hundred of it,
give each of Mark Chase half of it's gonna go
his way. I just be like, that's a good bet potentially.
So we're in on the receivers for the Bengals. We're
in on the tight ends of the Steelers. What are
(24:14):
you in on? Drop your comments below? What are your
picks for Thursday night football? Drop the comments in the
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goes on for Scott Bagman. I'm Joey p. We'll see
(24:36):
you next time. Kids. Enjoy your Thursday night football. Thanks
for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
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Speaker 1 (24:48):
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