August 29, 2025 • 43 mins
Join Matt Perrault and special guest Raheem Palmer from The Ringer as they preview the NFL season from a betting perspective and hit on a number of trending gambling topics!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Handicapping The Preseason - 0:00:48
The Betting Industry: Changes With Legalization - 0:05:26
Betting In September - 0:10:00
Bet Teasers - 0:15:45
Favorite Win Total - 0:18:50
Making The Playoff Jump - 0:22:58
New York Giants - 0:24:15
Dallas Cowboys - 0:28:22
Betting in Contests - 0:31:44
Super Bowl Prediction - 0:38:05
Outro - 0:42:18
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:01):
How are you welcome into the August episode of the
Sharps re Porch.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
I'm your host, Matt Perolchi.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Guys normally see me on the Daily Juice podcast, but
we are going to give you an NFL football preview.
Raheem Palmer does a ton of work for The Ringer
and he's been kind enough to help us break down
the upcoming NFL football He's a game. How are you
great to see you. Thank you for the time today.
Another football year about to start.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Yeah, thanks for having me on. I mean, everything's great.
Speaker 4 (00:26):
I just did some F four or five training, so
I'm trying to get shape mentally, physically, and spiritually for
the football season.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
So I'm excited, all right.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
So we are taping this Unfortunately on the same day
that Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift announced it that they
are engaged. So I'm glad that this will come out
later because if it came out today, nobody would watch
because everybody's just talking.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
About that particular story.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
But as we head towards this NFL football season, what
do you do when it comes to handicapping the preseason? Like,
do you use it? Is it helpful? For you, or
do you just say, look, that was fake football. We're
gonna play real football starting in a week.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
So it's not really helpful or hurtful.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
But occasionally you just see certain things and they'll be
like like just a light bulb for you. You know,
one of the things that I saw this preseason, actually,
let me take that back. It is helpful. And the
reason why I will say that is because first things first,
if you look at the last couple of years, starting quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Who doesn't don't.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
Play in the preseason, they don't tend to do well
in the first half. So you look at last year
QB's in the preseason, they went one in five against
the spread in the first half and three and three
against the spread for the full game. Let's go back
the year before that, quarterbacks who didn't play in the preseason,
they were two and seven against the spread in the
first half and six and three against the spread for
(01:51):
the full game. So you're seeing these quarterbacks who didn't
play in the preseason and they come out a little
bit rusty and they tend to go undergirts under their
player prop. And there's non quarterbacks this year who didn't play. Now,
unfortunately this year, six of them play against each other.
So Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, they played dakt and
(02:11):
the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Neither one played. Lamar Jackson or Ravens didn't play.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
They played Josh Allen he didn't play, Baker Mayfield Browns
didn't play, Michael Pennix didn't play.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
But there's three more.
Speaker 4 (02:24):
Matthew Stafford he never plays, Aaron Rodgers he didn't play,
and then Jarret Golf and Jered Goffin is the most
concerning because he has a new offensive coordinator. And not
only doesn't does he have a new offensive coordinator, he
lost his Hall of Fame center Frank rad Now, so
that offensive line isn't the same. So I'm really concerned
(02:44):
about him. And just to go back to last year,
Matthew Stafford didn't play last year. I know he never plays,
but the Rams were down thirteen to seven to the
Seahawks and ended up winning that game thirty to thirteen.
So after halftime he completely turned it on. But before
halftime he was in the same quarterback So that's one
thing I looked at. But also the other thing I
(03:06):
will say that I do like sometimes you just something
you'll see a player two and it'll just like it'll
be like a light bulbing ahead. And a couple of
them that I saw where I watched the Kansas City
Chiefs against the Bears, and there's always talk about how
Super Bowl losers they have that hangover. It ain't gonna
(03:26):
be no hangover because I mean, it ain't gonna be
no hangover because Patrick Mahomes it looked like me and
you were playing defense out there, and I saw that
he was firing on all cylinders. Obviously you got Rashid Rice,
who's not suspended right now, you got Hollywood brown Back.
I think this Chiefs offense is going to be a
misseason form. But on the other side of the coin,
(03:49):
I watched that Bengals defense. Oh my god, that Money
Night game against the Commanders. I swear to guy, every
single play was explosive. So you'll see things like that
and it'll just be a sign of things to come.
But then obviously there's other teams who just aren't trying,
so you kind of have to just you know, you
pay attention to certain things, but then other things you
throw out. But that was the Bengals first team defense
(04:11):
and they sucked. So I don't see them getting it together.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
What do you do?
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Okay, So, like Joe flaccol played a little bit, but
Joe Flacco didn't play a lot in the preseason. Does
that matter to you if they don't play very much,
because the Bengals are starting to they're trying to start fast.
The last two seasons under Zach Taylor have been disasters
and it's come back to bite them in December last year. Obviously,
the survivor story.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
We all know.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Everybody on the Bengals and the Patriots one on the
road in Week number one, the Bengals are on the
road against the Browns, who will start Joe Flacco who
didn't play very much. Do you think that's a Bengal
first half play because well, the offense did see Joe
Burrow play a lot in the preseason and Joe Flacco
did not play much for the Browns.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Yeah, I think that's definitely a good way to handicap
it because I do think you know a lot of
these quarterbacks they're not playing much or they haven't played
at all, then they're rusty. And I mean you got
to remember the quarterbacks aren't getting hit, they're not get
it in the scrimmages and the practices, so it still
takes a little bit to get used to. And I
think we saw this over the course of the last
(05:16):
three seasons. I gave you guys the numbers. I mean,
I think they're pretty telling. I mean, even though it's
a small sample size, I think we've seen enough of
a sample size to say these quarterbacks aren't playing it well.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
I want to take a step back and talk about
the industry for a second, Rahiem, because you've been doing
this for a long time. What is what is it
like for you when it comes to in the legalized market?
And obviously Nevada has been legal for a long time,
but I know you used to come in to town
to do a lot of work and do things and
get down on certain games, and then legalization happened, And
obviously now you are living in Philly at times and
(05:48):
bouncing around into the country to different states which are
now legal. And obviously it's now in thirty nine states
where sports betting is legal.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
What's it like for you and how is things?
Speaker 2 (05:56):
How has life changed for you as a gambler in
the legalized world.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
So it was great initially, like that first couple of
years was amazing. It was all types of free money
thrown being thrown around, all types of free bets, and
then you quickly realize that none of these books they
want winning players. And I think it's it's worse than
it was before, Like it's almost I mean, I'm fortunate
(06:22):
to be able to have a job in sports betting,
so I wouldn't have had that without legalization, right all
of us, Yes, yeah, but I mean in terms of
just actually betting, it's horrible now.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Like I mean, like nobody will take a bet.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
I mean, obviously you have Circa obviously, I mean Caesars
will take action from some people, but I mean there's
people being cut off at Caesars as well. But there's
just a lot of books to where are you being
limited to ten dollars? You're being limited to a dollar
eighty seven, And it's just like y'all are cleaning up
with these same game parlays twenty five to thirty percent
(06:59):
hold and you can't even make a five hundred dollars
bet on an NFL game.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
It's it's just frankly absurd.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
It's frustrating, I think for a lot of people who
have who saw it before, and now see it the
way it is now and thinking that this is going
to be this great opportunity. But come betting in September
when we see the bonuses, when we see these books
roll out the welcome matt essentially because they know the
first two weeks of the NFL football season is the
(07:27):
most heavily bet time of the entire calendar. Do you
have opportunities? Do you shop for books you haven't used before?
Do you think there's opportunities in September at the front
of the NFL season when the books are more willing
to take action.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
Honestly, at this point, it doesn't even feel like a
lot of like they're given. They're not even giving the
level of promos that they used to get. I mean
that's what I'm seeing. Like I'm just not seeing like
like there was a book out there and it was
the greatest thing ever, and I kind of, you know,
I was.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
They have the fan duel connection, so I can't really
talk about both too much. But there was a.
Speaker 4 (08:04):
Book out there back in like twenty twenty where, well
this is probably twenty nineteen. Literally they had a promo
that if your team was winning an NBA game by
the end of.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
The third quarter, they would pay you out.
Speaker 4 (08:18):
Yeah, and it's just like it was stuff like that,
or it was just all types of free play. Like
I have friends who don't even get free play anymore, right,
and they're not even like big winners or anything like that.
So it's just it feels like they're just without New states.
They're pulling a lot of the promo spend a ton
(08:39):
now out here in Vegas. Obviously we never got. Yeah,
we never got that.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
We never got that here, So it's here we never got.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
And I mean obviously I was in Pennsylvania for half
the time, so.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
But yeah, out here in Vegas, it's kind of like
you got a couple of books that you can go to.
Obviously you got CIRCA, you got Caesars, you got MGM,
you got stations. But it's not Yea, you got Westgate's.
It's not a lot of it's just not a lot
of competition here, which is kind of unfortunate because I
(09:12):
remember the days where I could stay at the Cosmopolitan
and they were CG technology and then I can run
across the street to William Hill and then I can
go across to Caesars, or I can go across to
what else was there, and there were just so many
books and now it's just it. Caesar is an MGM
own an entire strip pretty much, and I.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
Think hopefully there's going to be I mean, here in town,
there's a new book called Boomers which is starting and
that's going to be a local joint.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
So hopefully we do see.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Some more innovation. Missouri coming online in December. It's going
to be an interesting market to look at because of
Saint Louis and Kansas City on either side of the state.
So you've got some pretty big population centers that could
drive handle in Missouri.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
So we'll see how that state does.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
But obviously we're still waiting on some of the bigger
states population wise, Texas, California, Florida and whatnot for that.
So in September, the book the lines can be a
little bit soft. The books don't know a whole lot, right.
Everybody's in price discovery mode. Everybody's trying to figure out
who is good and who is not. It's why Survivor
is such a difficult thing to come through because of
(10:14):
how complicated and difficult September is. But how do you
look to approach and attack the NFL in September.
Speaker 4 (10:22):
So first things first, I do look at the market,
and obviously I do have a model, and my model
is it is.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Based off last year's data.
Speaker 4 (10:31):
But I think when you're looking at these division games,
obviously the division games are key because divisional home underdogs
in Week one, I mean, they've historically been a monster.
Like that is that is where you want to look
in terms of, you know, where I can get a
bet down, Like I think divisional home underdogs since twenty ten,
(10:51):
twenty two and seven seventy five percent against the spread
in Week one since twenty ten, So that is a
place to look. But obviously you really want to look
at some of the additions, some of the takeaways.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Who do you think got better? Who got worse?
Speaker 4 (11:07):
I think one of the things that I like to
do is obviously I think all of us play season
win totals, yep. A lot of times those are the
teams that I'm looking to buy on or sell on
week one. So if I have, you know, a season
win total on a team going under, a lot of times,
(11:27):
I'm probably playing against them week one. If they're playing
another team that I think I'm going to buy on
now it's not always the case because it is obviously
a market and there's a point spread, But you know,
I find myself approaching things that way as well.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
I think also the way I tend to look at it,
and I think historically speaking, there are teams that start
fast and there are teams that start slow. I mean
the Bengals being obviously the most obvious team that has
started slowly and they want to change that narrative as
to what they're going to look like. But I think
also for teams like let's talk about the Patriots for
a second, because that's my team, the Patriots. If you
(12:05):
look at ESPN bet or you look at some other books,
I mean, people are betting the over on the win
total for the Patriots, like it's already happened, and as
a Patriot fan, I'm not in love with that. And
they play the Raiders in Week one out of the
gate with Pete Carroll, a revenge game for him former
Patriot head coach. Obviously, we know what happened in the
Super Bowl with the Seahawks against the Patriots, and we
(12:25):
got askedjin genty and we have a new running back
in a new offense in Chip Kelly, who's from New
Hampshire coming back. I feel like that could be kind
of in your point. You bet the over on the
Patriot win total, but in Week one you take the
Raiders plus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Is that like, is that a fair assessment?
Speaker 3 (12:41):
It is, I mean it is, but I.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
Mean I think for me, I was looking at it like,
let's just say, I want to fee I want to
fade the Saints this year. I think the Saints have
the worst quarterback room in the league. I'm a really
high on Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Oo, Okay, I.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
Love the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (12:57):
As you see that line went from four and a
half up to six in some places.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
So I think that is a team that kind of
fits the bill of ur.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
There's a lot of sharps on the Arizona Cardinals to
go over their win total, and they're buying on them
week one.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
I don't hate that. I mean, milely good turn with
the Cardinals is Kyler Murray. It's their quarterback. One is
health to his play. And but defensively, people have said
they've taken some big steps Defensively, They're gonna better than
people think. Defensively, they'll run the ball more effectively, and
then may be that team out west than no one's
talking about that could jump up and surprise some people.
(13:35):
You mentioned Matthew Stafford not playing in the regular season.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
What is your outlook for the Rams? Let's stay in
that same division, because I bet the forty nine ers
already yet plus one ten. That number has flipped to
minus one ten or miss one twenty at certain books
and then shot up to one fifty to plus one fifty,
where I was annoyed because I got it at plus
one ten.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
But Rams money came in late, as if they know
something about Matthew Stafford. What is your outlook on the Rams?
Speaker 3 (14:01):
I think the Rams are overrated, like I really do.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
I think Matthew Stafford he's I mean, he's been a
great quarterback, but I think the wheels.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Are starting to fall off.
Speaker 4 (14:12):
Yeah, I think you're starting to see, like I mean,
he's getting up there in age and now he's coming
into the season with a bad back, and now it's
just like at any given time, this whole thing can
fall apart. So I didn't necessarily play them under but
they are a team that I have my eye on,
and I could see them slipping and I'm higher on
(14:34):
the Cardinals than I am on the Rams. And personally,
there's a part of me that once Houston Week one,
because if Matthew Stafford is coming into the season with
a bad back, he got an epidoro and now you
probably have to play one of the best defenses in
the league and you didn't play preseason. I just I
think that's a spot where Houston, especially on a teaser
(14:56):
and I'm not a big teaser guy. And that's another
thing that goes back to our first timeres about the
state of sports betting. You can no longer get minus
one ten on teasers. I think there's one book out
there ten that's gone.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, that's a dinosaur that's gone.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
You can barely get one twenty. Now.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
I think there's one book that gives you one twenty.
I think everybody else is one twenty five, thirty even,
But yes, so, I mean that's that's another thing about
the state of legalized sports betting. But I think when
it comes to the Houston Texans, I think that's a
great teaser leg over under forty four and a half
Texans catching two and a half, one of the best
(15:35):
neefers in the league. They're playing a quarterback who is
coming off of epidural in a bad bat. I think
they keep this within the teaser number and they probably
even win this game out right.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
I think with teasers that is such an interesting thing
from a book perspective, is that And this comes from
Dave Sherripan, my my co host on BVB, who used
to always say that, look at books who are afraid
to take teasers. It doesn't make any sense because yes,
the sharps ex one you know in parentheses, are the
ones that would come in and really hammer you. But
(16:06):
you want that action because it loses so often you
it's more difficult to win. And even though there's like
this new theory that's out there that everyone can win
betting teasers, that's not actually true.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
It still is.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
It's a fun bet to make. I'll give it to you.
But it's not like it's an automatic win if you
tease a game or tease you know, two different games together.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Right, Yes, it's not at all, especially in the modern NFL,
where you have more teams going for it on fourth down,
more teams going going for two. It's actually scary, Like
I like, honestly, I've quit teasers a couple of years ago,
Like I literally just I just I'm like, I can't
play them. And then because I was betting so big,
it got to the point where the juice added up.
(16:47):
Like if you like, it's one thing, if you have
fifty dollars or one hundred dollars on a teaser, I
mean your juice is what ten dollars or something like that, right,
I bet a teas ones for ten thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
Is expensive.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
That's an expensive expensive is crazy, Like I can't pay
all his juice.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Like and I just I was like, you know what,
I quit. Yeah, Like, I just I couldn't do it.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
I am a sucker for a same game teaser. Okay,
I'm not gonna lie. I absolutely love doing it. I'm
not going to tell you that it's the most intelligent
way of gambling, and it's not the most you know,
so often I'm sitting there at the end of a game,
sweating out of total either an over or an under,
and I've got the.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Side right, but the total burns me or vice versa.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Like I've teased it up to nine from a three
point number and gone over nine, so I cross get
out for three cross seven.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
I'm sitting on nine.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
And I'm just sweating, and I'm going, oh, like no
field goal, no field goal, Like, don't put it to ten.
So it's not that easy. Like everybody thinks it's like
an automatic deb it's not.
Speaker 4 (17:52):
And the public and the crazy thing about the public
is the public is not just teasing two games, yea.
They want to tease four, five, and six like so
it's just like they just need to. I don't know,
I just I just think they should be a little
bit more fair to the player.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
I would agree with you. And two leg teasers can
be profitable. The long teaser meth that everybody knows it
now and so do the books. So they play defense
now and don't tell me a two and a half
or three and a half point numbers not a teaser number,
because they do look to do that and keep it
below ten or keep it below nine, trying to keep you,
you know, keep their their edge when it comes to
teasing games. So there's all sorts of ways that the
(18:29):
books play defense. And juice is the other one that
they make it really expensive for you to go. And
even in Vegas, I mean, like I thought forever we'd
have you know, mis one twenty teasers and even the
sharp books here in town have gone to one thirty.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
It's like, what are we doing on a two leg teaser?
One thirty?
Speaker 2 (18:44):
But that's the price, and that's how they're they're protecting
themselves when it comes to that. So give me a
win total that you have bet already that you like
that maybe is not.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
We haven't talked about it yet. Give me a win
total that you like.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Let's go with. I got a list here, I got a.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
List, right. You like the Cardinals?
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Right, I say the Cardinals. You know what, let's go.
This is kind of like an adjusted win total. I
don't think I've given this out anywhere else. Let's go
Vikings under nine and a half wins.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
Oh my, you're not a KOC believer.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
So the biggest thing is that they forced thirty three
takeaways last year, first in the NFL plus twelve turnover differential.
You got a rookie quarterback coming in that's already going
to flip on his head nine in one on one
score games.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
Yes, they were great last year.
Speaker 4 (19:44):
You combine all three of those things and the defense
is probably not gonna be as good.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
I just I think it has a recipefore an under.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Oh, I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I just I've talked to enough people that believe that
JJ McCarthy could like not just the comeback player of
the year, but like MVP type numbers for JJ McCarthy,
which I don't.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
Necessarily agree with, but they think the koc.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
Did it last year with a quarterback not nearly as
talented as he's got now. And as long as JJ
stays healthy with the receiving cord that he's got in
the running game, they're going to have that the Vikings
are going to put up big numbers on everybody. I'm
not necessarily a believer in that, but the Vikings defense
was good last year, and frankly the division. I don't
(20:29):
know where the Packers are going to be. I know
the Bears have a ton of question marks, and you
brought up the Lions. I just watched the final episode
of The Quarterback last night to kind of refresh where
I was, and you know, that five turnover game against
the Commanders was wild to watch because Jared Goff played
horrendously and that was with Ben Johnson.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
You know, I think he had it. I think he
was concussed in that game.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
He got smacked on the interception he did.
Speaker 4 (20:56):
Yep, it's so crazy. I like this under too. This
was another one I was gonna get. Like they're right
next to each other on my list. I like the
Lions under ten and a half wins, Like, I think.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
That's a good play. I think it's a good bet.
I think I think the Vikings. But if you don't
like the Vikings, you don't like the Lions. Who wins
the division? Like, so is it are? You're going Bears
and Ben Johnson?
Speaker 1 (21:20):
Year one, it's.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Bears or Packers, one of those two, Like, like, I
like the Bears over, Like it's so crazy, I'm playing
almost the whole division, but I like the Bears over
and I've really I've really liked this Lions under seven
to two and one score games. Like everybody talks about
how the Lions defense got banged up last year twenty
four offin of just the games lost six worst injury
luck on defense like the last twenty five years, but
(21:44):
people don't remember that they had. They were like the
second they had the second few wast injuries on offense,
so all of their injury luck came on came on offense.
But not on defense, and without Ben Johnson and the
fact that Frank ragnow retired Kevin Zeitler left, They've gone
(22:05):
from a top tier offensive line to you know, maybe
middle of the pack, maybe top ten. And then you're
seven to two and one score games and they won
four games when trailing or tied within the twenty seconds
of the game. And this year they're only going to
play ten indoor games compared to fourteen or the last eighteen.
Like if you look at the Lions schedule, yeah, the Lions,
(22:26):
Like honestly, they start the season off against Green Bay
and then they play the Bears, the Ravens, the Browns,
the Bengals, and the Chiefs. They could almost be out
of it, Like that could be three and three, that
could be a losing record, Like they could almost be
out of it right there.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
Possibly. Yeah, look, I think it's gonna be.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
That division is so interesting to me just because of
the topsy turvy nature of the NFL and how you know,
last year, every year there are four teams that missed
the playoffs last year that will be in the playoffs
this year. So I'm always on the hunt for finding
those four teams, Like, what are the four teams that
were out that will now be in. And it feels
like the Bears could be that one of those four
(23:13):
teams that makes the playoffs. If Caleb Williams takes that
big jump, if their defense performs, and if Ben Johnson
has you know, that quarterback whisper mentality or that ability
to bring Caleb up to where we thought he could be. Okay,
maybe the Bears are going to be the sleeper team
in that division to go ahead and win. And if
the hand injury it's not the throwing hand, but still
(23:34):
hand injury for Jordan Love, if that turns out to
be a more significant thing, all right, maybe the Packers
are going to take a step back.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
And it's the Bears division here, which would.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Be amazing given where they were last year with the
number of sacks they had. But they invested in the
offensive line. The one thing about the Bears everyone's forgetting
that's not going to be the same offensive line that
Caleb played behind last year. They invested big capital in
that line, and I think and Ben Johnson talked about it.
He said, look it we're not going to make the
mistake that we've made in previous years. Other teams I'm
(24:05):
not going to forget about the offensive line and his
center and guards. I mean, that's a hell of an
offensive line for the payer, So I don't hate that
at all. All Right, let's talk about the team that
everyone hates me. But well, I got two I got
two questions. The first is the New York Giants. I
am way down on the New York Giants. I have
them under five and a half wins. I do not
think they're going to be competitive. I think they're going
(24:26):
to be playing Jackson Dart early, and I think this
is going to be a developmental year for him. Whether
or not that's Brian dable the next season to develop
him or not that will be a debate. But where
are you on the Giants? And what is, in my mind,
the hardest schedule.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
In the NFL.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
This is very difficult for me because I like the roster.
I particularly like the pass rush. Dexter, Lawrence kvon Thibodeau,
Brian Burns, Abdor corner to that, and I think that
pass rush is going to keep them in some games.
I think the obviously you add some guys in the secondary,
and I think that makes their secondary stronger.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
I think they can be competitive.
Speaker 4 (25:02):
The problem is, like you said, they have the worst
schedule in the NFL, Like it's like it just almost
feels unfair. Yeah, I agree on the road to the
Commanders in the Cowboys, then you have the Chiefs and
the Chargers, and then I mean, you're on the road
in New Orleans, which is.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
The only game.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
You better win that game.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
If you don't win that game, when do you win?
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Right? Yep?
Speaker 3 (25:28):
But I like them week one.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Do you like your Week one outright or the points?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Probably both?
Speaker 4 (25:37):
Oh my, I mean I'm not necessarily picking them to
win Week one, but I think they cover that number.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Okay, number doesn't make any sense too high.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
Look at what the game if you look at their
games last year, so obviously these two teams played last year.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
Yeah, it's divisional. I mean it's six. It's pain six everywhere.
At the time of us taping here, it's Commander's minus six.
They're at home, they're on the road. I mean, if
the Commanders follow up an NFC Championship Game appearance with
an opening loss to the Giants, that's not gonna sit
well in that market. Like that's a huge stub of
a toe for the Commanders. They lose won last year.
Speaker 4 (26:18):
Last year they played Week two on the road. The
Commanders were laying the Commanders were laying one. The Giants
should have won that game. They lost eighteen to twenty
one because their their field goal kicker.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Got hurt right right.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
And they literally couldn't kick extra points and they couldn't
kick a field goal, so they couldn't kick a field
the game winning field goal. They went for it on
fourth and two. They didn't get it. The Commanders come
down and kicked the game winning field goal. They play
again on November third, they lose by four. How do
you get the seven seven?
Speaker 3 (26:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (26:51):
West seven is six six and a half? Now, how
do you get there? Other than just perception?
Speaker 1 (26:57):
Right? I mean they have gotten better obviously.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
I mean they've added receiving receivers, They've added some running
backs that they're obviously looking to run more. With Jayden Daniels,
they're looking to be more explosive in the passing game
this year, you know, going into a year two with him,
to see what he's going to look like and what
is the follow up. So I think a lot of
people are wondering, is there a regression to do Teams
now have film on Jadon Daniels or is this team
(27:20):
gonna keep on getting better and better. I think they're
going to score on anyone in the NFL. I just
don't think they stop anybody. And so the Giants offense,
I mean, it's Russell Wilson, it's Elik Neighbors.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
Let's see what they can do to stop that.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
That's got to be better than Daniel Jones.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Better, you would think, I don't know, though, I'm not
positive you would think, but I'm not positive it's going
to be given the way Russ played in Pittsburgh last year.
Speaker 4 (27:45):
And then I mean the Commanders they were twenty of
twenty three on fourth down.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
Oh that's amazing.
Speaker 4 (27:52):
You get really like if you get any regression, and
then six and nine in the postseason, if they get
any fourth down regression, that that's a that's a game changer.
So it's just like, I just this line is probably
one of the most perplexing lines of Week one.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
Take the dog of you if you get back to seven.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I think seven is a good number to take for
or maybe even buy it up if you want, or
tease the Commanders down. If you think they're gonna win
the game. You can pull them down to basically a
pick and take the Commanders to win the game. The
other team is your team, and everyone is all up
in arms with me over this. I've taken the Cowboys
to win the East at plus six fifty. It's been
over twenty years since a team in the NFC East
(28:34):
has gone back to back. It was the Eagles in
three to four. The Eagles won it last year, the
Cowboys won it the year before. Everyone thought going into
last year it was gonna be the Cowboys again, and
then they fell on their face.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Everyone thinks it's the Eagles again.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
And I think six point fifty is really a good
value to jump on the Cowboys. I know it's your team,
but how are you How do you feel about Deck
and the Boys?
Speaker 4 (28:58):
So I took them over seven and a half wins
just because you know, we talked about this before we
went on air. I just think the baseline for Dak
Prescott is very, very high, like you have a high
floor when he's playing. You know, since he's coming to
the league. You're talking about a guy who's won thirteen games,
nine games, ten games, eight games. He got injured and
(29:21):
they only won six. They won twelve they went twelve
and five three years in a row, and then the
Cowboys won seven last year and he got injured as well.
So the thing that we've seen as consistent is that
when Dak Prescott is in a Cowboys unit form and
he's playing, they're going to their baseline is eight nine
wins minimum. So I like them over seven and a
(29:42):
half wins. I'm just kind of concerned with the run
game and I'm concerned with the defense. Like, actually, yeah,
I don't know what you get from them now.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
I think you get an offense.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
It's gonna throw the football a ton with George Pickens
and Ceedee Lamb, and I think that they're gonna look
to pick up you know, I think Dak throws for
over four thousand yards with his eyes closed, and I
think they're gonna look to outscore people. And I do
think the Micah Parsons deal, I think Micah comes back.
I do think they get that deal done before the
start of the year, and I do think he's gonna
have a decent season, if not a great out of
(30:14):
the gate first month. I think eventually he'll get into
form and help that Cowboys team come By the time
we get that get to Halloween, I would expect that
defense to be better. Then they'll they won't be good,
but they'll be good enough to keep them in games
to allow that offense to go and win.
Speaker 4 (30:30):
You know what, I think you make a good point though,
because they did at Matt Everfus. He's not a good
head coach, but his defense does specialize in turnovers. And
you saw the last year. I mean, obviously they regress
heavily in the turnover differential because the year before that
they were first in EPA game from turnovers. Last year
(30:52):
it was just a total departure from that. So if
he can just you know, get this team back towards
you know, forcing some turnovers and you know, trade Trayvon
Days could come back healthy, Michael Parson could come back healthy.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
I think their floor is really really high.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
So and actually I like the Eagles under I like
the Eagles, like I know, I'm betting against human human
achievement a lot, but I've really liked the Eagles under
eleven and a half wins.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
So your bet when the Cowboys definitely makes sense.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
If Hurts gets hurt or if Barkley gets hurt, and
both those guys stayed healthy all year and they play
a physical brand of football. They were fortunate with a
lot of luck in the turnover world. I'm sorry in
the injury world and turnover no matter two. But I
just I don't think the injury luck is going to
be there for the Eagles this year. I think they're
going to suffer some pretty significant injuries and it's going
to cause them a lot of problems to come in
(31:43):
and do that. All right, Before I let you go here,
one final topic that I want to address. If somebody's
in a contest, whether it be the Circa Million Circus survivor,
whether it be Westgate, whether it be a different, you know,
a local contest that they are in, how do you
approach betting in contests versus betting for real when it
comes to dollars.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
So I think if you're betting for real, at least
in the NFL, you kind of want to get out early,
and often you just want to get out early.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
You want to get the best of the number. If
you can't get the best of.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
The number early in the week, I think you're probably
you know, you're betting towards game time. Maybe if you're
because the calculus kind of changes because obviously the limits
grow right close to the game time, so you're kind
of balancing getting the best of the number early in
the week versus at the end of the week. You're
(32:34):
also getting injury news and you're trying to maximize your
value depending on how much you bet, Like I'm pretty
sure Billy Walters as his time where he's just betting
on Sunday, right because that's when the higher limits is.
So you have to balance all of that and a contest,
you also have to be cognizant of who everybody else
(32:55):
is betting, and not that you don't have to do
that when you're betting for real, but you're you're actively
competing against these people. So there will be a time
where you know a side is going to be public,
and I think a good public side is probably the
Bengals against the Browns in Week one, Like who wants
to bet on met on Joe Flaco versus Joe Burrow,
(33:18):
So I imagine that's going to be a heavy public side.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
You kind of want to stay away from that one.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
I mean, with Survivor picks, I mean, you're going you've
got to have some serious stones to go back and
take the Bengals again. If you're in the in the
Circus Survivor contest and you have a thousand dollars entry
and you're going to go back to the well with
the Bengals again in week one, I don't know if
you can do that. I mean that that play.
Speaker 4 (33:46):
It's not just for Survivor, it's for circum Millions too,
because if everybody's going to be you know, maybe what's
another one that's probably like, honestly, Washington might be a
Denver Washington, those might those might be the biggest sides. Yeah,
and you kind of want to avoid those and hope
they lose. And circum Millions and in the.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Survivor, Yeah, I can't believe the Denver number already is eight.
I mean we're here, we're taping this on the twenty
sixth of August, and the numbers already eight. What that
tells me that number is gonna close at ten. And
that's ridiculous in week one out of the gate. And
I know the Titans aren't gonna be good, and I
know cam Ward is starting his first year and I can't
stand the Callahans. So I am as out on the
(34:27):
Titans as anybody, But whoa, that's a big number in
week number one.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
Crazy. Yeah, I don't know if I'm that out on
the Titans.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
Oh you should be, Oh, you really should be. It's
the Callahans, It's Brian Callahan. I can never be in
on the cow I was one of my favorite bets
last year was to bet the under on the wind
total for the Titans. I haven't bet it this year
because you think he's that bad. I think the Kalahans
are clueless. I both Brian and Billy both on the
coaching staff. Brian's the head coach, Bill's the offensive line coach.
(34:59):
I think both the number completely clueless. But cam mord
just might be because I think Zach Taylor is clueless,
but Joe Burrow makes up for it. Cam Ward could
be the similar deal where cam Ward could make up
for the Callahan ineptitude and thus they go over their
win total because cam Ward is that dude. So I
don't love cam Ward, but he does carry himself and
(35:21):
he does have some moxie, and if the kid balls
out in his rookie year in the NFL, he'll cover
up a lot of problems that the Titans have.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
So here's here's my case for the for the over,
they went two and fifteen against the spread last year. Yep,
this is a market, and with this being a market,
at some point in time, it naturally. I mean, I
think if you if you were to look, you know,
through the last twenty five years, a team who's this
bad against the spread, they probably do better than that
(35:49):
the following year.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
So I think that's what I mean.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
That number is ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
Eight is like already we opened at seven and a half,
or already at eight, we're gonna go eight and a half. Nine, Like,
when do we get a bet on the Dog's gonna
be the question? When does somebody want to take the Titans?
And I guess it's probably ten, get to ten and
then people start betting it back down with the Titans.
So I don't hate to play in the Titans in
week number one. That's what I mean. I think everybody
I get, I.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Get, I get the impact.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
I can understand why people want to play the win
total over just based on you know division, Yeah, division,
you know, just regression. I mean you're gonna get turnover regression,
like they threw he had thirty turnovers and like twenty
one interceptions, Like, like.
Speaker 1 (36:29):
I think, how many picks is Cam Moore is gonna throw?
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Though?
Speaker 1 (36:31):
That's the worry, right, you got a rookie starting Game one.
Speaker 4 (36:34):
I mean, he's not gonna be up seven and throw
the ball completely to the other team when he's.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
Thrown like, he's like, that's not gonna have it. I
hope not.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
He's a he's a risk taker. I mean, we'll see
if it works out for him. But he's gonna put
the ball in harm's way. We know that from his
college days. He's gonna put the ball in harm's way.
The question will be whether or not he gets to
pay the price for it, or does he get lucky
breaks and doesn't throw interceptions. That's my worries that Cam
Moored does throw as many picks as the quarterbacks playing
last year did for the Titans, which was a ridiculous amount.
(37:05):
So I don't know. I haven't betted. I will bet
against the Titans this year.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
I'm betting against them in Week one, however, because the
love I like the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
I have the Broncos over on their win total.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
I'm I'm riding that train over nine at two, I'm
just not as in love with everybody. I'm as not
like this team's gonna be thirteen and four and they're
gonna be They're gonna be de throwing the chiefs and
everything else.
Speaker 1 (37:28):
So all right for letting gold.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
But before we, before we, yeah, I gotta say one thing.
Speaker 4 (37:33):
Yeah, I think if you like the Titans under, you
play them now? Oh okay, fair, because I think if
you don't like, if you like the Titans over, and
I know a lot of people like the Titans over, Okay.
The thing that's keeping me off the over is because
I think they're gonna lose week one in.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
Two okay, and better number.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
That's what I was hoping to do. I was hoping,
you know, they lose week one and two and then
I come back week three and I played them over.
That's kind of how I was thinking of approaching it.
Not hold if they look competent.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
Right, I'm not gonna hold you to it because it's
it's obviously just just a prediction.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
But who is holding?
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Who is in Senate, who is in San Francisco slash
Santa Ana, wherever the hell Levice Stadium is these days?
Who wins it? All, who's who's the chip? I think
I know what you're gonna say, but who wins it all?
Speaker 3 (38:28):
It's it's honestly, I think the best team in the
league is Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Finally I thought you say Chiefs. I was ready to
use it the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (38:36):
But it's just like it's it's it's it's Lamar's time.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
If it's gonna ever do it, it's now.
Speaker 4 (38:43):
It's either it's like, honestly, Travis kelcey and and Teller
Swift got married today, So I just not married yet.
They got engaged today. I feel like they should just
get married during halftime.
Speaker 5 (38:59):
Oh, Like, like you know, the conspiracy theory right that
she's playing the halftime show. Wow, the conspiracy theory is
that she's playing the halftime show and she's gonna do
a residency here at the Sphere in Vegas, and that's
and that's where she's gonna go. She's gonna play the
halftime show for the first time, that she'll play the
Sphere right afterwards and start going in and do that.
Speaker 1 (39:21):
The two things she has not done yet.
Speaker 2 (39:22):
Everyone thinks she's going to do Life of a Showgirl,
her new album, Vegas Showgirl and then her to go up.
The colors of the album is orange and everything else
that goes into it, and it's all the forty nine
or Boloney that's out there with the Swifties.
Speaker 1 (39:34):
That's the rumor that she's gonna.
Speaker 2 (39:36):
Play the halftime show and then she'll play here in Vegas,
So he might be on something there.
Speaker 4 (39:40):
You know what, I'll say this, there's three teams who
can win the super Bowl. Okay, it's the three superhuman
quarterbacks in the AFC. One of those guys are winning it.
Speaker 3 (39:49):
I don't know who think Burrow?
Speaker 1 (39:52):
No, oh girl, who's the other?
Speaker 4 (39:54):
It's I don't I don't include him in this. I'm sorry.
I like I like Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1 (40:00):
He's not superhuman.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
There's a clear tier to me.
Speaker 1 (40:04):
Okay. I think it's Patrick and Josh.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
I think that's the tier.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
I think it's just on a different level. And I
think Joe Burrow is right below him.
Speaker 1 (40:16):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
I do think there is a surprising lack of attention
on the bills this year, which I'm very surprised at.
Normally people talk a lot about the bills. People aren't
talking about the bills nearly as much as they used to.
They think the windows closed, which might be the perfect
thing for an underdog type city and underdog type team
to go and shock everybody.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
And this is the year finally for Josh Allen and
the Bills.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
I'm not subscribing to it, but I am surprised at
the lack of attention that Josh Allen has received. He
got married in the off season, his personal life is
all settled.
Speaker 4 (40:47):
It weak, like the division is so weak that it
just puts them in a position to where they should
be able to. I mean, they're going to win a division,
and they they're going to have a home playoff game
if they can just you know, beat up, continue to
beat up on a division. I think they have a
real shot. Honestly, I just want Super Bowl futures on
all three of those teams. I think one of those
teams is winning. I don't think the NFC is very good.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
I hope it's Lamar. I hope it's the Ravens. I
would love to see it. I bet him last year.
I'll bet him again. It's just one of those things
I am. I do believe in Lamar Jackson. I believe
in the offense. I believe in the running attack, I
believe in the defense. I believe that that team that
Lamar has done incredible things in the NFL, and the
last thing he needs is a Lombardi. And if he
(41:32):
gets a Lombardi, it changes and cements his legacy and
changes the whole conversation around him for the rest of
his life. So I hope this is the year for him.
I'm not sure, but I hope this. But I'm with
you on the NFC. I think that there's some big
question marks in the NFC this year, and the AFC
has taken a step. I'm out on the Dolphins, I'm
(41:52):
out on the Jets, So I'm with you on that.
I don't think the Patriots are going to be as
good as everyone thinks they're going to be. I don't
think there are a ten win football team, and everyone is.
I hate the fact how much it's bet on it.
So for the Bills perspective, they could go six to
o in the division and that puts them right smack
in the one seed conversation and having a home playoff
game or home playoffs throughout the entire the entire run.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
Because the AFC West is going to be a bear
for the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (42:15):
To get there, so it's going to be brutal.
Speaker 1 (42:17):
Very different situations.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Raheem for folks that want to follow you throughout the
NFL football season with the Ringer work and they get
your work.
Speaker 3 (42:23):
Okay, we just launched the Ringer YouTube page Ringer Gambling YouTube,
so you can go on Ringer Gambling on YouTube. Obviously,
you can catch us on Spotify Ringer Gambling Show, and
you can catch me on Twitter and Instagram. I am
Rostra Damas, so check me out.
Speaker 4 (42:38):
We're still going to be doing a Sunday NFL preview
show every Sunday. We did one last year and the
year before. This is our third season, so it's just
really exciting stuff, so I'm glad to keep it going.
Speaker 2 (42:49):
Check out Raheem stuff for sure. Guys, thank you for
watching this. If you have been at this long, do
us a favor.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
Hit the like.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
Button, hit the thumb, subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
We're trying to get this thing to one hundred thousand
subscribers by the end of the year and twenty twenty five,
so make sure you subscribe. Hit the little bell so
you're notified every month when the Sharp report drops. I'm
at Peralta Raheem Palmer. We'll talk to you next month
for another episode of The Sharp Report.
Speaker 6 (43:14):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:01):
How are you welcome into the August episode of the
Sharps re Porch.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
I'm your host, Matt Perolchi.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Guys normally see me on the Daily Juice podcast, but
we are going to give you an NFL football preview.
Raheem Palmer does a ton of work for The Ringer
and he's been kind enough to help us break down
the upcoming NFL football He's a game. How are you
great to see you. Thank you for the time today.
Another football year about to start.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Yeah, thanks for having me on. I mean, everything's great.
Speaker 4 (00:26):
I just did some F four or five training, so
I'm trying to get shape mentally, physically, and spiritually for
the football season.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
So I'm excited, all right.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
So we are taping this Unfortunately on the same day
that Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift announced it that they
are engaged. So I'm glad that this will come out
later because if it came out today, nobody would watch
because everybody's just talking.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
About that particular story.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
But as we head towards this NFL football season, what
do you do when it comes to handicapping the preseason? Like,
do you use it? Is it helpful? For you, or
do you just say, look, that was fake football. We're
gonna play real football starting in a week.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
So it's not really helpful or hurtful.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
But occasionally you just see certain things and they'll be
like like just a light bulb for you. You know,
one of the things that I saw this preseason, actually,
let me take that back. It is helpful. And the
reason why I will say that is because first things first,
if you look at the last couple of years, starting quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Who doesn't don't.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
Play in the preseason, they don't tend to do well
in the first half. So you look at last year
QB's in the preseason, they went one in five against
the spread in the first half and three and three
against the spread for the full game. Let's go back
the year before that, quarterbacks who didn't play in the preseason,
they were two and seven against the spread in the
first half and six and three against the spread for
(01:51):
the full game. So you're seeing these quarterbacks who didn't
play in the preseason and they come out a little
bit rusty and they tend to go undergirts under their
player prop. And there's non quarterbacks this year who didn't play. Now,
unfortunately this year, six of them play against each other.
So Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, they played dakt and
(02:11):
the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Neither one played. Lamar Jackson or Ravens didn't play.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
They played Josh Allen he didn't play, Baker Mayfield Browns
didn't play, Michael Pennix didn't play.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
But there's three more.
Speaker 4 (02:24):
Matthew Stafford he never plays, Aaron Rodgers he didn't play,
and then Jarret Golf and Jered Goffin is the most
concerning because he has a new offensive coordinator. And not
only doesn't does he have a new offensive coordinator, he
lost his Hall of Fame center Frank rad Now, so
that offensive line isn't the same. So I'm really concerned
(02:44):
about him. And just to go back to last year,
Matthew Stafford didn't play last year. I know he never plays,
but the Rams were down thirteen to seven to the
Seahawks and ended up winning that game thirty to thirteen.
So after halftime he completely turned it on. But before
halftime he was in the same quarterback So that's one
thing I looked at. But also the other thing I
(03:06):
will say that I do like sometimes you just something
you'll see a player two and it'll just like it'll
be like a light bulbing ahead. And a couple of
them that I saw where I watched the Kansas City
Chiefs against the Bears, and there's always talk about how
Super Bowl losers they have that hangover. It ain't gonna
(03:26):
be no hangover because I mean, it ain't gonna be
no hangover because Patrick Mahomes it looked like me and
you were playing defense out there, and I saw that
he was firing on all cylinders. Obviously you got Rashid Rice,
who's not suspended right now, you got Hollywood brown Back.
I think this Chiefs offense is going to be a
misseason form. But on the other side of the coin,
(03:49):
I watched that Bengals defense. Oh my god, that Money
Night game against the Commanders. I swear to guy, every
single play was explosive. So you'll see things like that
and it'll just be a sign of things to come.
But then obviously there's other teams who just aren't trying,
so you kind of have to just you know, you
pay attention to certain things, but then other things you
throw out. But that was the Bengals first team defense
(04:11):
and they sucked. So I don't see them getting it together.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
What do you do?
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Okay, So, like Joe flaccol played a little bit, but
Joe Flacco didn't play a lot in the preseason. Does
that matter to you if they don't play very much,
because the Bengals are starting to they're trying to start fast.
The last two seasons under Zach Taylor have been disasters
and it's come back to bite them in December last year. Obviously,
the survivor story.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
We all know.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Everybody on the Bengals and the Patriots one on the
road in Week number one, the Bengals are on the
road against the Browns, who will start Joe Flacco who
didn't play very much. Do you think that's a Bengal
first half play because well, the offense did see Joe
Burrow play a lot in the preseason and Joe Flacco
did not play much for the Browns.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Yeah, I think that's definitely a good way to handicap
it because I do think you know a lot of
these quarterbacks they're not playing much or they haven't played
at all, then they're rusty. And I mean you got
to remember the quarterbacks aren't getting hit, they're not get
it in the scrimmages and the practices, so it still
takes a little bit to get used to. And I
think we saw this over the course of the last
(05:16):
three seasons. I gave you guys the numbers. I mean,
I think they're pretty telling. I mean, even though it's
a small sample size, I think we've seen enough of
a sample size to say these quarterbacks aren't playing it well.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
I want to take a step back and talk about
the industry for a second, Rahiem, because you've been doing
this for a long time. What is what is it
like for you when it comes to in the legalized market?
And obviously Nevada has been legal for a long time,
but I know you used to come in to town
to do a lot of work and do things and
get down on certain games, and then legalization happened, And
obviously now you are living in Philly at times and
(05:48):
bouncing around into the country to different states which are
now legal. And obviously it's now in thirty nine states
where sports betting is legal.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
What's it like for you and how is things?
Speaker 2 (05:56):
How has life changed for you as a gambler in
the legalized world.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
So it was great initially, like that first couple of
years was amazing. It was all types of free money
thrown being thrown around, all types of free bets, and
then you quickly realize that none of these books they
want winning players. And I think it's it's worse than
it was before, Like it's almost I mean, I'm fortunate
(06:22):
to be able to have a job in sports betting,
so I wouldn't have had that without legalization, right all
of us, Yes, yeah, but I mean in terms of
just actually betting, it's horrible now.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Like I mean, like nobody will take a bet.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
I mean, obviously you have Circa obviously, I mean Caesars
will take action from some people, but I mean there's
people being cut off at Caesars as well. But there's
just a lot of books to where are you being
limited to ten dollars? You're being limited to a dollar
eighty seven, And it's just like y'all are cleaning up
with these same game parlays twenty five to thirty percent
(06:59):
hold and you can't even make a five hundred dollars
bet on an NFL game.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
It's it's just frankly absurd.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
It's frustrating, I think for a lot of people who
have who saw it before, and now see it the
way it is now and thinking that this is going
to be this great opportunity. But come betting in September
when we see the bonuses, when we see these books
roll out the welcome matt essentially because they know the
first two weeks of the NFL football season is the
(07:27):
most heavily bet time of the entire calendar. Do you
have opportunities? Do you shop for books you haven't used before?
Do you think there's opportunities in September at the front
of the NFL season when the books are more willing
to take action.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
Honestly, at this point, it doesn't even feel like a
lot of like they're given. They're not even giving the
level of promos that they used to get. I mean
that's what I'm seeing. Like I'm just not seeing like
like there was a book out there and it was
the greatest thing ever, and I kind of, you know,
I was.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
They have the fan duel connection, so I can't really
talk about both too much. But there was a.
Speaker 4 (08:04):
Book out there back in like twenty twenty where, well
this is probably twenty nineteen. Literally they had a promo
that if your team was winning an NBA game by
the end of.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
The third quarter, they would pay you out.
Speaker 4 (08:18):
Yeah, and it's just like it was stuff like that,
or it was just all types of free play. Like
I have friends who don't even get free play anymore, right,
and they're not even like big winners or anything like that.
So it's just it feels like they're just without New states.
They're pulling a lot of the promo spend a ton
(08:39):
now out here in Vegas. Obviously we never got. Yeah,
we never got that.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
We never got that here, So it's here we never got.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
And I mean obviously I was in Pennsylvania for half
the time, so.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
But yeah, out here in Vegas, it's kind of like
you got a couple of books that you can go to.
Obviously you got CIRCA, you got Caesars, you got MGM,
you got stations. But it's not Yea, you got Westgate's.
It's not a lot of it's just not a lot
of competition here, which is kind of unfortunate because I
(09:12):
remember the days where I could stay at the Cosmopolitan
and they were CG technology and then I can run
across the street to William Hill and then I can
go across to Caesars, or I can go across to
what else was there, and there were just so many
books and now it's just it. Caesar is an MGM
own an entire strip pretty much, and I.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
Think hopefully there's going to be I mean, here in town,
there's a new book called Boomers which is starting and
that's going to be a local joint.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
So hopefully we do see.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Some more innovation. Missouri coming online in December. It's going
to be an interesting market to look at because of
Saint Louis and Kansas City on either side of the state.
So you've got some pretty big population centers that could
drive handle in Missouri.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
So we'll see how that state does.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
But obviously we're still waiting on some of the bigger
states population wise, Texas, California, Florida and whatnot for that.
So in September, the book the lines can be a
little bit soft. The books don't know a whole lot, right.
Everybody's in price discovery mode. Everybody's trying to figure out
who is good and who is not. It's why Survivor
is such a difficult thing to come through because of
(10:14):
how complicated and difficult September is. But how do you
look to approach and attack the NFL in September.
Speaker 4 (10:22):
So first things first, I do look at the market,
and obviously I do have a model, and my model
is it is.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Based off last year's data.
Speaker 4 (10:31):
But I think when you're looking at these division games,
obviously the division games are key because divisional home underdogs
in Week one, I mean, they've historically been a monster.
Like that is that is where you want to look
in terms of, you know, where I can get a
bet down, Like I think divisional home underdogs since twenty ten,
(10:51):
twenty two and seven seventy five percent against the spread
in Week one since twenty ten, So that is a
place to look. But obviously you really want to look
at some of the additions, some of the takeaways.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Who do you think got better? Who got worse?
Speaker 4 (11:07):
I think one of the things that I like to
do is obviously I think all of us play season
win totals, yep. A lot of times those are the
teams that I'm looking to buy on or sell on
week one. So if I have, you know, a season
win total on a team going under, a lot of times,
(11:27):
I'm probably playing against them week one. If they're playing
another team that I think I'm going to buy on
now it's not always the case because it is obviously
a market and there's a point spread, But you know,
I find myself approaching things that way as well.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
I think also the way I tend to look at it,
and I think historically speaking, there are teams that start
fast and there are teams that start slow. I mean
the Bengals being obviously the most obvious team that has
started slowly and they want to change that narrative as
to what they're going to look like. But I think
also for teams like let's talk about the Patriots for
a second, because that's my team, the Patriots. If you
(12:05):
look at ESPN bet or you look at some other books,
I mean, people are betting the over on the win
total for the Patriots, like it's already happened, and as
a Patriot fan, I'm not in love with that. And
they play the Raiders in Week one out of the
gate with Pete Carroll, a revenge game for him former
Patriot head coach. Obviously, we know what happened in the
Super Bowl with the Seahawks against the Patriots, and we
(12:25):
got askedjin genty and we have a new running back
in a new offense in Chip Kelly, who's from New
Hampshire coming back. I feel like that could be kind
of in your point. You bet the over on the
Patriot win total, but in Week one you take the
Raiders plus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Is that like, is that a fair assessment?
Speaker 3 (12:41):
It is, I mean it is, but I.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
Mean I think for me, I was looking at it like,
let's just say, I want to fee I want to
fade the Saints this year. I think the Saints have
the worst quarterback room in the league. I'm a really
high on Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Oo, Okay, I.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
Love the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (12:57):
As you see that line went from four and a
half up to six in some places.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
So I think that is a team that kind of
fits the bill of ur.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
There's a lot of sharps on the Arizona Cardinals to
go over their win total, and they're buying on them
week one.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
I don't hate that. I mean, milely good turn with
the Cardinals is Kyler Murray. It's their quarterback. One is
health to his play. And but defensively, people have said
they've taken some big steps Defensively, They're gonna better than
people think. Defensively, they'll run the ball more effectively, and
then may be that team out west than no one's
talking about that could jump up and surprise some people.
(13:35):
You mentioned Matthew Stafford not playing in the regular season.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
What is your outlook for the Rams? Let's stay in
that same division, because I bet the forty nine ers
already yet plus one ten. That number has flipped to
minus one ten or miss one twenty at certain books
and then shot up to one fifty to plus one fifty,
where I was annoyed because I got it at plus
one ten.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
But Rams money came in late, as if they know
something about Matthew Stafford. What is your outlook on the Rams?
Speaker 3 (14:01):
I think the Rams are overrated, like I really do.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
I think Matthew Stafford he's I mean, he's been a
great quarterback, but I think the wheels.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Are starting to fall off.
Speaker 4 (14:12):
Yeah, I think you're starting to see, like I mean,
he's getting up there in age and now he's coming
into the season with a bad back, and now it's
just like at any given time, this whole thing can
fall apart. So I didn't necessarily play them under but
they are a team that I have my eye on,
and I could see them slipping and I'm higher on
(14:34):
the Cardinals than I am on the Rams. And personally,
there's a part of me that once Houston Week one,
because if Matthew Stafford is coming into the season with
a bad back, he got an epidoro and now you
probably have to play one of the best defenses in
the league and you didn't play preseason. I just I
think that's a spot where Houston, especially on a teaser
(14:56):
and I'm not a big teaser guy. And that's another
thing that goes back to our first timeres about the
state of sports betting. You can no longer get minus
one ten on teasers. I think there's one book out
there ten that's gone.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, that's a dinosaur that's gone.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
You can barely get one twenty. Now.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
I think there's one book that gives you one twenty.
I think everybody else is one twenty five, thirty even,
But yes, so, I mean that's that's another thing about
the state of legalized sports betting. But I think when
it comes to the Houston Texans, I think that's a
great teaser leg over under forty four and a half
Texans catching two and a half, one of the best
(15:35):
neefers in the league. They're playing a quarterback who is
coming off of epidural in a bad bat. I think
they keep this within the teaser number and they probably
even win this game out right.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
I think with teasers that is such an interesting thing
from a book perspective, is that And this comes from
Dave Sherripan, my my co host on BVB, who used
to always say that, look at books who are afraid
to take teasers. It doesn't make any sense because yes,
the sharps ex one you know in parentheses, are the
ones that would come in and really hammer you. But
(16:06):
you want that action because it loses so often you
it's more difficult to win. And even though there's like
this new theory that's out there that everyone can win
betting teasers, that's not actually true.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
It still is.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
It's a fun bet to make. I'll give it to you.
But it's not like it's an automatic win if you
tease a game or tease you know, two different games together.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Right, Yes, it's not at all, especially in the modern NFL,
where you have more teams going for it on fourth down,
more teams going going for two. It's actually scary, Like
I like, honestly, I've quit teasers a couple of years ago,
Like I literally just I just I'm like, I can't
play them. And then because I was betting so big,
it got to the point where the juice added up.
(16:47):
Like if you like, it's one thing, if you have
fifty dollars or one hundred dollars on a teaser, I
mean your juice is what ten dollars or something like that, right,
I bet a teas ones for ten thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
Is expensive.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
That's an expensive expensive is crazy, Like I can't pay
all his juice.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Like and I just I was like, you know what,
I quit. Yeah, Like, I just I couldn't do it.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
I am a sucker for a same game teaser. Okay,
I'm not gonna lie. I absolutely love doing it. I'm
not going to tell you that it's the most intelligent
way of gambling, and it's not the most you know,
so often I'm sitting there at the end of a game,
sweating out of total either an over or an under,
and I've got the.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Side right, but the total burns me or vice versa.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Like I've teased it up to nine from a three
point number and gone over nine, so I cross get
out for three cross seven.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
I'm sitting on nine.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
And I'm just sweating, and I'm going, oh, like no
field goal, no field goal, Like, don't put it to ten.
So it's not that easy. Like everybody thinks it's like
an automatic deb it's not.
Speaker 4 (17:52):
And the public and the crazy thing about the public
is the public is not just teasing two games, yea.
They want to tease four, five, and six like so
it's just like they just need to. I don't know,
I just I just think they should be a little
bit more fair to the player.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
I would agree with you. And two leg teasers can
be profitable. The long teaser meth that everybody knows it
now and so do the books. So they play defense
now and don't tell me a two and a half
or three and a half point numbers not a teaser number,
because they do look to do that and keep it
below ten or keep it below nine, trying to keep you,
you know, keep their their edge when it comes to
teasing games. So there's all sorts of ways that the
(18:29):
books play defense. And juice is the other one that
they make it really expensive for you to go. And
even in Vegas, I mean, like I thought forever we'd
have you know, mis one twenty teasers and even the
sharp books here in town have gone to one thirty.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
It's like, what are we doing on a two leg teaser?
One thirty?
Speaker 2 (18:44):
But that's the price, and that's how they're they're protecting
themselves when it comes to that. So give me a
win total that you have bet already that you like
that maybe is not.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
We haven't talked about it yet. Give me a win
total that you like.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
Let's go with. I got a list here, I got a.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
List, right. You like the Cardinals?
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Right, I say the Cardinals. You know what, let's go.
This is kind of like an adjusted win total. I
don't think I've given this out anywhere else. Let's go
Vikings under nine and a half wins.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
Oh my, you're not a KOC believer.
Speaker 4 (19:23):
So the biggest thing is that they forced thirty three
takeaways last year, first in the NFL plus twelve turnover differential.
You got a rookie quarterback coming in that's already going
to flip on his head nine in one on one
score games.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
Yes, they were great last year.
Speaker 4 (19:44):
You combine all three of those things and the defense
is probably not gonna be as good.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
I just I think it has a recipefore an under.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Oh, I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I just I've talked to enough people that believe that
JJ McCarthy could like not just the comeback player of
the year, but like MVP type numbers for JJ McCarthy,
which I don't.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
Necessarily agree with, but they think the koc.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
Did it last year with a quarterback not nearly as
talented as he's got now. And as long as JJ
stays healthy with the receiving cord that he's got in
the running game, they're going to have that the Vikings
are going to put up big numbers on everybody. I'm
not necessarily a believer in that, but the Vikings defense
was good last year, and frankly the division. I don't
(20:29):
know where the Packers are going to be. I know
the Bears have a ton of question marks, and you
brought up the Lions. I just watched the final episode
of The Quarterback last night to kind of refresh where
I was, and you know, that five turnover game against
the Commanders was wild to watch because Jared Goff played
horrendously and that was with Ben Johnson.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
You know, I think he had it. I think he
was concussed in that game.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
He got smacked on the interception he did.
Speaker 4 (20:56):
Yep, it's so crazy. I like this under too. This
was another one I was gonna get. Like they're right
next to each other on my list. I like the
Lions under ten and a half wins, Like, I think.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
That's a good play. I think it's a good bet.
I think I think the Vikings. But if you don't
like the Vikings, you don't like the Lions. Who wins
the division? Like, so is it are? You're going Bears
and Ben Johnson?
Speaker 1 (21:20):
Year one, it's.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Bears or Packers, one of those two, Like, like, I
like the Bears over, Like it's so crazy, I'm playing
almost the whole division, but I like the Bears over
and I've really I've really liked this Lions under seven
to two and one score games. Like everybody talks about
how the Lions defense got banged up last year twenty
four offin of just the games lost six worst injury
luck on defense like the last twenty five years, but
(21:44):
people don't remember that they had. They were like the
second they had the second few wast injuries on offense,
so all of their injury luck came on came on offense.
But not on defense, and without Ben Johnson and the
fact that Frank ragnow retired Kevin Zeitler left, They've gone
(22:05):
from a top tier offensive line to you know, maybe
middle of the pack, maybe top ten. And then you're
seven to two and one score games and they won
four games when trailing or tied within the twenty seconds
of the game. And this year they're only going to
play ten indoor games compared to fourteen or the last eighteen.
Like if you look at the Lions schedule, yeah, the Lions,
(22:26):
Like honestly, they start the season off against Green Bay
and then they play the Bears, the Ravens, the Browns,
the Bengals, and the Chiefs. They could almost be out
of it, Like that could be three and three, that
could be a losing record, Like they could almost be
out of it right there.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
Possibly. Yeah, look, I think it's gonna be.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
That division is so interesting to me just because of
the topsy turvy nature of the NFL and how you know,
last year, every year there are four teams that missed
the playoffs last year that will be in the playoffs
this year. So I'm always on the hunt for finding
those four teams, Like, what are the four teams that
were out that will now be in. And it feels
like the Bears could be that one of those four
(23:13):
teams that makes the playoffs. If Caleb Williams takes that
big jump, if their defense performs, and if Ben Johnson
has you know, that quarterback whisper mentality or that ability
to bring Caleb up to where we thought he could be. Okay,
maybe the Bears are going to be the sleeper team
in that division to go ahead and win. And if
the hand injury it's not the throwing hand, but still
(23:34):
hand injury for Jordan Love, if that turns out to
be a more significant thing, all right, maybe the Packers
are going to take a step back.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
And it's the Bears division here, which would.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Be amazing given where they were last year with the
number of sacks they had. But they invested in the
offensive line. The one thing about the Bears everyone's forgetting
that's not going to be the same offensive line that
Caleb played behind last year. They invested big capital in
that line, and I think and Ben Johnson talked about it.
He said, look it we're not going to make the
mistake that we've made in previous years. Other teams I'm
(24:05):
not going to forget about the offensive line and his
center and guards. I mean, that's a hell of an
offensive line for the payer, So I don't hate that
at all. All Right, let's talk about the team that
everyone hates me. But well, I got two I got
two questions. The first is the New York Giants. I
am way down on the New York Giants. I have
them under five and a half wins. I do not
think they're going to be competitive. I think they're going
(24:26):
to be playing Jackson Dart early, and I think this
is going to be a developmental year for him. Whether
or not that's Brian dable the next season to develop
him or not that will be a debate. But where
are you on the Giants? And what is, in my mind,
the hardest schedule.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
In the NFL.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
This is very difficult for me because I like the roster.
I particularly like the pass rush. Dexter, Lawrence kvon Thibodeau,
Brian Burns, Abdor corner to that, and I think that
pass rush is going to keep them in some games.
I think the obviously you add some guys in the secondary,
and I think that makes their secondary stronger.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
I think they can be competitive.
Speaker 4 (25:02):
The problem is, like you said, they have the worst
schedule in the NFL, Like it's like it just almost
feels unfair. Yeah, I agree on the road to the
Commanders in the Cowboys, then you have the Chiefs and
the Chargers, and then I mean, you're on the road
in New Orleans, which is.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
The only game.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
You better win that game.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
If you don't win that game, when do you win?
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Right? Yep?
Speaker 3 (25:28):
But I like them week one.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Do you like your Week one outright or the points?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Probably both?
Speaker 4 (25:37):
Oh my, I mean I'm not necessarily picking them to
win Week one, but I think they cover that number.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Okay, number doesn't make any sense too high.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
Look at what the game if you look at their
games last year, so obviously these two teams played last year.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
Yeah, it's divisional. I mean it's six. It's pain six everywhere.
At the time of us taping here, it's Commander's minus six.
They're at home, they're on the road. I mean, if
the Commanders follow up an NFC Championship Game appearance with
an opening loss to the Giants, that's not gonna sit
well in that market. Like that's a huge stub of
a toe for the Commanders. They lose won last year.
Speaker 4 (26:18):
Last year they played Week two on the road. The
Commanders were laying the Commanders were laying one. The Giants
should have won that game. They lost eighteen to twenty
one because their their field goal kicker.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Got hurt right right.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
And they literally couldn't kick extra points and they couldn't
kick a field goal, so they couldn't kick a field
the game winning field goal. They went for it on
fourth and two. They didn't get it. The Commanders come
down and kicked the game winning field goal. They play
again on November third, they lose by four. How do
you get the seven seven?
Speaker 3 (26:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (26:51):
West seven is six six and a half? Now, how
do you get there? Other than just perception?
Speaker 1 (26:57):
Right? I mean they have gotten better obviously.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
I mean they've added receiving receivers, They've added some running
backs that they're obviously looking to run more. With Jayden Daniels,
they're looking to be more explosive in the passing game
this year, you know, going into a year two with him,
to see what he's going to look like and what
is the follow up. So I think a lot of
people are wondering, is there a regression to do Teams
now have film on Jadon Daniels or is this team
(27:20):
gonna keep on getting better and better. I think they're
going to score on anyone in the NFL. I just
don't think they stop anybody. And so the Giants offense,
I mean, it's Russell Wilson, it's Elik Neighbors.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
Let's see what they can do to stop that.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
That's got to be better than Daniel Jones.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Better, you would think, I don't know, though, I'm not
positive you would think, but I'm not positive it's going
to be given the way Russ played in Pittsburgh last year.
Speaker 4 (27:45):
And then I mean the Commanders they were twenty of
twenty three on fourth down.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
Oh that's amazing.
Speaker 4 (27:52):
You get really like if you get any regression, and
then six and nine in the postseason, if they get
any fourth down regression, that that's a that's a game changer.
So it's just like, I just this line is probably
one of the most perplexing lines of Week one.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
Take the dog of you if you get back to seven.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I think seven is a good number to take for
or maybe even buy it up if you want, or
tease the Commanders down. If you think they're gonna win
the game. You can pull them down to basically a
pick and take the Commanders to win the game. The
other team is your team, and everyone is all up
in arms with me over this. I've taken the Cowboys
to win the East at plus six fifty. It's been
over twenty years since a team in the NFC East
(28:34):
has gone back to back. It was the Eagles in
three to four. The Eagles won it last year, the
Cowboys won it the year before. Everyone thought going into
last year it was gonna be the Cowboys again, and
then they fell on their face.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Everyone thinks it's the Eagles again.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
And I think six point fifty is really a good
value to jump on the Cowboys. I know it's your team,
but how are you How do you feel about Deck
and the Boys?
Speaker 4 (28:58):
So I took them over seven and a half wins
just because you know, we talked about this before we
went on air. I just think the baseline for Dak
Prescott is very, very high, like you have a high
floor when he's playing. You know, since he's coming to
the league. You're talking about a guy who's won thirteen games,
nine games, ten games, eight games. He got injured and
(29:21):
they only won six. They won twelve they went twelve
and five three years in a row, and then the
Cowboys won seven last year and he got injured as well.
So the thing that we've seen as consistent is that
when Dak Prescott is in a Cowboys unit form and
he's playing, they're going to their baseline is eight nine
wins minimum. So I like them over seven and a
(29:42):
half wins. I'm just kind of concerned with the run
game and I'm concerned with the defense. Like, actually, yeah,
I don't know what you get from them now.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
I think you get an offense.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
It's gonna throw the football a ton with George Pickens
and Ceedee Lamb, and I think that they're gonna look
to pick up you know, I think Dak throws for
over four thousand yards with his eyes closed, and I
think they're gonna look to outscore people. And I do
think the Micah Parsons deal, I think Micah comes back.
I do think they get that deal done before the
start of the year, and I do think he's gonna
have a decent season, if not a great out of
(30:14):
the gate first month. I think eventually he'll get into
form and help that Cowboys team come By the time
we get that get to Halloween, I would expect that
defense to be better. Then they'll they won't be good,
but they'll be good enough to keep them in games
to allow that offense to go and win.
Speaker 4 (30:30):
You know what, I think you make a good point though,
because they did at Matt Everfus. He's not a good
head coach, but his defense does specialize in turnovers. And
you saw the last year. I mean, obviously they regress
heavily in the turnover differential because the year before that
they were first in EPA game from turnovers. Last year
(30:52):
it was just a total departure from that. So if
he can just you know, get this team back towards
you know, forcing some turnovers and you know, trade Trayvon
Days could come back healthy, Michael Parson could come back healthy.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
I think their floor is really really high.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
So and actually I like the Eagles under I like
the Eagles, like I know, I'm betting against human human
achievement a lot, but I've really liked the Eagles under
eleven and a half wins.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
So your bet when the Cowboys definitely makes sense.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
If Hurts gets hurt or if Barkley gets hurt, and
both those guys stayed healthy all year and they play
a physical brand of football. They were fortunate with a
lot of luck in the turnover world. I'm sorry in
the injury world and turnover no matter two. But I
just I don't think the injury luck is going to
be there for the Eagles this year. I think they're
going to suffer some pretty significant injuries and it's going
to cause them a lot of problems to come in
(31:43):
and do that. All right, Before I let you go here,
one final topic that I want to address. If somebody's
in a contest, whether it be the Circa Million Circus survivor,
whether it be Westgate, whether it be a different, you know,
a local contest that they are in, how do you
approach betting in contests versus betting for real when it
comes to dollars.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
So I think if you're betting for real, at least
in the NFL, you kind of want to get out early,
and often you just want to get out early.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
You want to get the best of the number. If
you can't get the best of.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
The number early in the week, I think you're probably
you know, you're betting towards game time. Maybe if you're
because the calculus kind of changes because obviously the limits
grow right close to the game time, so you're kind
of balancing getting the best of the number early in
the week versus at the end of the week. You're
(32:34):
also getting injury news and you're trying to maximize your
value depending on how much you bet, Like I'm pretty
sure Billy Walters as his time where he's just betting
on Sunday, right because that's when the higher limits is.
So you have to balance all of that and a contest,
you also have to be cognizant of who everybody else
(32:55):
is betting, and not that you don't have to do
that when you're betting for real, but you're you're actively
competing against these people. So there will be a time
where you know a side is going to be public,
and I think a good public side is probably the
Bengals against the Browns in Week one, Like who wants
to bet on met on Joe Flaco versus Joe Burrow,
(33:18):
So I imagine that's going to be a heavy public side.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
You kind of want to stay away from that one.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
I mean, with Survivor picks, I mean, you're going you've
got to have some serious stones to go back and
take the Bengals again. If you're in the in the
Circus Survivor contest and you have a thousand dollars entry
and you're going to go back to the well with
the Bengals again in week one, I don't know if
you can do that. I mean that that play.
Speaker 4 (33:46):
It's not just for Survivor, it's for circum Millions too,
because if everybody's going to be you know, maybe what's
another one that's probably like, honestly, Washington might be a
Denver Washington, those might those might be the biggest sides. Yeah,
and you kind of want to avoid those and hope
they lose. And circum Millions and in the.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Survivor, Yeah, I can't believe the Denver number already is eight.
I mean we're here, we're taping this on the twenty
sixth of August, and the numbers already eight. What that
tells me that number is gonna close at ten. And
that's ridiculous in week one out of the gate. And
I know the Titans aren't gonna be good, and I
know cam Ward is starting his first year and I can't
stand the Callahans. So I am as out on the
(34:27):
Titans as anybody, But whoa, that's a big number in
week number one.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
Crazy. Yeah, I don't know if I'm that out on
the Titans.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
Oh you should be, Oh, you really should be. It's
the Callahans, It's Brian Callahan. I can never be in
on the cow I was one of my favorite bets
last year was to bet the under on the wind
total for the Titans. I haven't bet it this year
because you think he's that bad. I think the Kalahans
are clueless. I both Brian and Billy both on the
coaching staff. Brian's the head coach, Bill's the offensive line coach.
(34:59):
I think both the number completely clueless. But cam mord
just might be because I think Zach Taylor is clueless,
but Joe Burrow makes up for it. Cam Ward could
be the similar deal where cam Ward could make up
for the Callahan ineptitude and thus they go over their
win total because cam Ward is that dude. So I
don't love cam Ward, but he does carry himself and
(35:21):
he does have some moxie, and if the kid balls
out in his rookie year in the NFL, he'll cover
up a lot of problems that the Titans have.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
So here's here's my case for the for the over,
they went two and fifteen against the spread last year. Yep,
this is a market, and with this being a market,
at some point in time, it naturally. I mean, I
think if you if you were to look, you know,
through the last twenty five years, a team who's this
bad against the spread, they probably do better than that
(35:49):
the following year.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
So I think that's what I mean.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
That number is ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
Eight is like already we opened at seven and a half,
or already at eight, we're gonna go eight and a half. Nine, Like,
when do we get a bet on the Dog's gonna
be the question? When does somebody want to take the Titans?
And I guess it's probably ten, get to ten and
then people start betting it back down with the Titans.
So I don't hate to play in the Titans in
week number one. That's what I mean. I think everybody
I get, I.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Get, I get the impact.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
I can understand why people want to play the win
total over just based on you know division, Yeah, division,
you know, just regression. I mean you're gonna get turnover regression,
like they threw he had thirty turnovers and like twenty
one interceptions, Like, like.
Speaker 1 (36:29):
I think, how many picks is Cam Moore is gonna throw?
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Though?
Speaker 1 (36:31):
That's the worry, right, you got a rookie starting Game one.
Speaker 4 (36:34):
I mean, he's not gonna be up seven and throw
the ball completely to the other team when he's.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
Thrown like, he's like, that's not gonna have it. I
hope not.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
He's a he's a risk taker. I mean, we'll see
if it works out for him. But he's gonna put
the ball in harm's way. We know that from his
college days. He's gonna put the ball in harm's way.
The question will be whether or not he gets to
pay the price for it, or does he get lucky
breaks and doesn't throw interceptions. That's my worries that Cam
Moored does throw as many picks as the quarterbacks playing
last year did for the Titans, which was a ridiculous amount.
(37:05):
So I don't know. I haven't betted. I will bet
against the Titans this year.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
I'm betting against them in Week one, however, because the
love I like the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
I have the Broncos over on their win total.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
I'm I'm riding that train over nine at two, I'm
just not as in love with everybody. I'm as not
like this team's gonna be thirteen and four and they're
gonna be They're gonna be de throwing the chiefs and
everything else.
Speaker 1 (37:28):
So all right for letting gold.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
But before we, before we, yeah, I gotta say one thing.
Speaker 4 (37:33):
Yeah, I think if you like the Titans under, you
play them now? Oh okay, fair, because I think if
you don't like, if you like the Titans over, and
I know a lot of people like the Titans over, Okay.
The thing that's keeping me off the over is because
I think they're gonna lose week one in.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
Two okay, and better number.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
That's what I was hoping to do. I was hoping,
you know, they lose week one and two and then
I come back week three and I played them over.
That's kind of how I was thinking of approaching it.
Not hold if they look competent.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
Right, I'm not gonna hold you to it because it's
it's obviously just just a prediction.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
But who is holding?
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Who is in Senate, who is in San Francisco slash
Santa Ana, wherever the hell Levice Stadium is these days?
Who wins it? All, who's who's the chip? I think
I know what you're gonna say, but who wins it all?
Speaker 3 (38:28):
It's it's honestly, I think the best team in the
league is Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Finally I thought you say Chiefs. I was ready to
use it the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (38:36):
But it's just like it's it's it's it's Lamar's time.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
If it's gonna ever do it, it's now.
Speaker 4 (38:43):
It's either it's like, honestly, Travis kelcey and and Teller
Swift got married today, So I just not married yet.
They got engaged today. I feel like they should just
get married during halftime.
Speaker 5 (38:59):
Oh, Like, like you know, the conspiracy theory right that
she's playing the halftime show. Wow, the conspiracy theory is
that she's playing the halftime show and she's gonna do
a residency here at the Sphere in Vegas, and that's
and that's where she's gonna go. She's gonna play the
halftime show for the first time, that she'll play the
Sphere right afterwards and start going in and do that.
Speaker 1 (39:21):
The two things she has not done yet.
Speaker 2 (39:22):
Everyone thinks she's going to do Life of a Showgirl,
her new album, Vegas Showgirl and then her to go up.
The colors of the album is orange and everything else
that goes into it, and it's all the forty nine
or Boloney that's out there with the Swifties.
Speaker 1 (39:34):
That's the rumor that she's gonna.
Speaker 2 (39:36):
Play the halftime show and then she'll play here in Vegas,
So he might be on something there.
Speaker 4 (39:40):
You know what, I'll say this, there's three teams who
can win the super Bowl. Okay, it's the three superhuman
quarterbacks in the AFC. One of those guys are winning it.
Speaker 3 (39:49):
I don't know who think Burrow?
Speaker 1 (39:52):
No, oh girl, who's the other?
Speaker 4 (39:54):
It's I don't I don't include him in this. I'm sorry.
I like I like Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1 (40:00):
He's not superhuman.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
There's a clear tier to me.
Speaker 1 (40:04):
Okay. I think it's Patrick and Josh.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
I think that's the tier.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
I think it's just on a different level. And I
think Joe Burrow is right below him.
Speaker 1 (40:16):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
I do think there is a surprising lack of attention
on the bills this year, which I'm very surprised at.
Normally people talk a lot about the bills. People aren't
talking about the bills nearly as much as they used to.
They think the windows closed, which might be the perfect
thing for an underdog type city and underdog type team
to go and shock everybody.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
And this is the year finally for Josh Allen and
the Bills.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
I'm not subscribing to it, but I am surprised at
the lack of attention that Josh Allen has received. He
got married in the off season, his personal life is
all settled.
Speaker 4 (40:47):
It weak, like the division is so weak that it
just puts them in a position to where they should
be able to. I mean, they're going to win a division,
and they they're going to have a home playoff game
if they can just you know, beat up, continue to
beat up on a division. I think they have a
real shot. Honestly, I just want Super Bowl futures on
all three of those teams. I think one of those
teams is winning. I don't think the NFC is very good.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
I hope it's Lamar. I hope it's the Ravens. I
would love to see it. I bet him last year.
I'll bet him again. It's just one of those things
I am. I do believe in Lamar Jackson. I believe
in the offense. I believe in the running attack, I
believe in the defense. I believe that that team that
Lamar has done incredible things in the NFL, and the
last thing he needs is a Lombardi. And if he
(41:32):
gets a Lombardi, it changes and cements his legacy and
changes the whole conversation around him for the rest of
his life. So I hope this is the year for him.
I'm not sure, but I hope this. But I'm with
you on the NFC. I think that there's some big
question marks in the NFC this year, and the AFC
has taken a step. I'm out on the Dolphins, I'm
(41:52):
out on the Jets, So I'm with you on that.
I don't think the Patriots are going to be as
good as everyone thinks they're going to be. I don't
think there are a ten win football team, and everyone is.
I hate the fact how much it's bet on it.
So for the Bills perspective, they could go six to
o in the division and that puts them right smack
in the one seed conversation and having a home playoff
game or home playoffs throughout the entire the entire run.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
Because the AFC West is going to be a bear
for the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (42:15):
To get there, so it's going to be brutal.
Speaker 1 (42:17):
Very different situations.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Raheem for folks that want to follow you throughout the
NFL football season with the Ringer work and they get
your work.
Speaker 3 (42:23):
Okay, we just launched the Ringer YouTube page Ringer Gambling YouTube,
so you can go on Ringer Gambling on YouTube. Obviously,
you can catch us on Spotify Ringer Gambling Show, and
you can catch me on Twitter and Instagram. I am
Rostra Damas, so check me out.
Speaker 4 (42:38):
We're still going to be doing a Sunday NFL preview
show every Sunday. We did one last year and the
year before. This is our third season, so it's just
really exciting stuff, so I'm glad to keep it going.
Speaker 2 (42:49):
Check out Raheem stuff for sure. Guys, thank you for
watching this. If you have been at this long, do
us a favor.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
Hit the like.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
Button, hit the thumb, subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
We're trying to get this thing to one hundred thousand
subscribers by the end of the year and twenty twenty five,
so make sure you subscribe. Hit the little bell so
you're notified every month when the Sharp report drops. I'm
at Peralta Raheem Palmer. We'll talk to you next month
for another episode of The Sharp Report.
Speaker 6 (43:14):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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