September 3, 2025 • 42 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite Week 1 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Pre-Season Process Translating to In-Season Success - 0:02:01
Eagles vs Cowboys - Philly favored by nine! - 0:08:25
Chiefs vs Chargers in Brazil - 0:10:30
BettingPros App - 0:12:59
Bets we like - 0:13:35
Texans vs Rams Under 43.5 - 0:13:58
Steelers vs Jets Under 39.0 - 0:15:50
Seahawks +2.5 vs 49ers - 0:17:57
Raiders -3 vs Patriots - 0:19:51
Giants vs Commanders Under 45.5 - 0:22:00
Bengals -6 vs Browns - 0:24:30
BettingPros Systems - 0:26:35
Survivor Pool Picks and Strategy - 0:27:10
BettingPros Pick Tracker - 0:35:30
Seahawks to win the NFC East - 0:36:15
Ashton Jeanty Over 7.5 Touchdowns - 0:38:50
Early Sunday bets we like - 0:40:25
Helpful Links:
BettingPros App - Make winning bets with advice and picks from top sports betting experts. The BettingPros app puts consensus and expert-driven sports betting advice at your fingertips to help you pinpoint the best odds and make winning bets. Download it today on the App Store or Google Play.
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BettingPros Pick Tracker – Want to track all of your wagers in one place? Check out the BettingPros Pick Tracker. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to tally which picks hit, and which miss AND gives you a live look at what the public is doing so you can use real-time tracking to determine which plays to make, and which to fade: bettingpros.com/pick-tracking
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's up, guys? How are you?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Welcome into week number one of the NFL FITZI Peralt.
We're gonna be here with you guys all season. This
is going to be fun as we get into all
the picks, plays, early looks, survivor pools.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
If you guys are in them.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Well, we're gonna give you some options here for us
to talk.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Pat, Great to see you. How are you. It's football
once again?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Doing great, Matt. Great to be on with you again.
And I've been getting ready for fantasy football for a
long time. I feel like I've bet in the weeds
for that for a long time. I forgot how I'm
much I missed preparing for these shows and like studying,
like figuring out what I wanted to bet every week.
You know, I bet some other sports during the offseason,
but like it's just not the same, you know, betting
(00:46):
basketball or what have you. It's just not as enjoyable.
And I love digging into the weeds and doing this,
and that's what we're going to talk about today. I've
I think this is my fourth show I'm recording today,
and this is the one I was most excited about.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Well, it's fun because we have. We're doing some new
stuff here at Betting Pros. Obviously, if you guys haven't
gone and downloaded the new app or updated the app,
you should do so, because there's some really cool features
that drop this week with the Betting Pros app. But
I talked about it on The Daily Juice a little bit.
The fact that you know, we're trying some new things
and trying to test out.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Some new things.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
So we were doing Thursday live streams heading into Thursday,
and we kind of figured, well, look at the whole
week people are talking about these games. We don't have
to wait till Thursday to get into Thursday night. We
can start talking about it on Tuesday morning, and you
know how this come out Wednesday and have a conversation
about what the line might be for Sunday, for Sunday
or Monday, even for Monday Night football. So this is
(01:40):
going to be fun every week to kind of go
deeper into the lines and look at what will happen.
And then Sunday when we do the NFL live stream
live heading into kickoff, we can reference back to this
video as to what we thought might happen. So really
going to be a fun football year. I can't wait
to see it on Thursday when the Eagles drop the banner,
and then we'll see what happens overseas with the Chiefs
(02:03):
game against the Chargers and whatnot. But let me ask
you a little bit about your preseason work for betting,
because it's different than fantasy obviously, right we're talking about
usage and we're talking about what will happen for an
individual player. How much does that help you when it
comes to handicapping and preparing for a season long talking
about a prop bet or a prop market for a
player or team come the whole year versus individually.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah, I mean, I think the fantasy stuff helps with
player prop research for the team wins in totals like
that some of the stuff we've been thinking about and
working on and with the numbers we've dug into, like
that matters for some of this side and total stuff.
But there's also a lot more to consider. The defenses,
the offensive line play, the coaching, the personnel moves, the
(02:51):
coaching moves, like all that factors in the matchups and
the trends, like what happens when two divisional rivals go
at it and how has that series gone in the
last couple of years, So there are definitely more layers
that we have to get into, and like the fantasy
research maybe helps you get a foothold, but there is
a lot more you need to look at.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Was there a major storyline for you? Like for me,
I'm a Patriot fan, so obviously the Patriots getting Mike
Vrabel and getting what looks like a competent coach in
place after what happened with Gerrod Mayo where it was
just a mess and things did not look like it
was going in the right direction. The Patriots cut bait
quickly and added a competent coach. Was there a storyline
(03:33):
for you that made headlines that was bigger than another
one that may help you either bet or fade a team.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
The Micaeh Parsons trade was kind of a big one here,
kinda And yeah, I mean like definitely gives the Packers
a boost. I mean, we saw them go from I
think twenty two to one to win the Super Bowl
to thirteen to one and become the favorite to win
the NFC North overnight with that deal. And you know, Dallas,
(04:01):
I mean I haven't looked at what their win total.
That's the one thing I've neglected to look at what
their team win total is now, but I would imagine
it's kind of crashed from where it was. And I
didn't have great feelings about the Cowboys anyway going into
this season, but man, we saw that. I'm actually kind
of surprised the line didn't move more than two points
(04:22):
after this. But I was lucky enough to get Philly
at minus six and a half and now it's at
minus eight and a half. So it's just you wonder,
I mean, like giving away a key player like that,
if that just crashes morale on that team, and you know,
Dallas kind of becomes a punching bag this year.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
It's going to be wild to watch because I have
made the analogy as a Red Sox fan that when
Raphael Devers was traded, that the Red Sox decided to
remove a cancer and send a player away that was
going to be a major distraction, and the Red Sox
took off after they traded away Raphael Devers. It's different
in football, obviously, in my Parsons is a different player.
(05:01):
He's a better player than Rafael Devers from a defensive
perspective and the impact he makes on the game. Just
for example, The Cowboys are now sixty to one to
win the Super Bowl at Fandel, so they are very far.
They're seven to one to win the Division. I still
like them to win the division. Everyone thinks I'm crazy
about that call. I still like the Cowboys to win
(05:21):
the Division. I think the Egos are going to have
a rough season when it comes to injuries. They had
everything go right last year, and historically speaking, when a
team avoids the injury bug like they did last year
and a running back like Saquon Barkley and a running
quarterback like Jalen Hurts stays away from the injury bug,
I think the injury bug might bite them. I can't
back the Commanders for anything because their defense just is
(05:44):
not something I want to get involved with. And I
think the Jayden Daniels sophomore slump might be real, Like
that could happen when the teams now have a lot
of tape on him to watch and prepare for that
offense for the Commanders. I don't love the Terry McLaurin deal.
I think he's an aging wide receiver, so we'll see
what he's able to put up with from a stat standpoint.
(06:05):
So I still like the Cowboys, not to win, not
to win the Super Bowl, but I do think they
could win the division. And yes, everyone's running away from
the Cowboys. That's kind of a team why. I'm like,
maybe it's a galvanizing factor, you know, maybe it causes
the team to circle the wagons.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
I don't like Jerry Jones, but.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
Like, is it possible that Dak Prescott and company that
they just outscore everybody?
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Yeah, I mean they could do that. I don't know
if their line is as good as it was a
few years ago, but they do have a lot of
well their their passing game is going to be chrisp
with Dak and Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens and Jake Ferguson. Yeah,
and maybe like they could do an ensemble cast job
with the pass rush with you know, Sam Williams and
(06:49):
Azeraku and like they've they've got a volume of pass rushers.
So maybe they can kind of pull everything together and
circle the wagons.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I mean, Cowboys fans obviously are praying that that happens.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Is that going to happen?
Speaker 2 (07:06):
I don't know, but their schedule is a third place schedule,
and I think that that's one big benefit. And look,
Matt Eberflus could not be a head coach, but we
know the guy can coach defense. I mean, he's a
good defensive coordinator, So if that's his role, like Josh
mcdam's with the Patriots, he's a great offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
He's a horrible head coach.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
If eber Flues can get takeaways, which is what his
defenses tend to specialize in. That can change football games,
That can flip seasons if you're leading, you know, if
you're doing the little things to create turnovers. So I'm
not nearly as far out on the Cowboys as everybody
else is.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
And even though I do know that people love to.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Hate on Dallas and I've been called all of a
sudden a Cowboys lover, and I'm not like, I'm a
Patriot fan, so like I like you, just like Jerry Jones,
you're a Cowboys I'm actually not like I don't like
the Cowboys, I don't like the Lakers, I don't like
the Yankees, like I don't like any of those teams.
I just see value in a seven to one ticket
now on the Cowboys to win the division, given that
(08:05):
nobody has gone back to back in the NFC East
since two thousand and three, two thousand and four when
the Eagles did it. So it's it's been a minute.
It's been twenty years over since someone's gone back to back.
But we can talk about the Eagles obviously and get
into what's happening here with the start of the season
Dallas and Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
This number is nine at circa, it's nine.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Pat What do we I mean, we're talking blowout here
on Banner Night where it's a walk in the park
for the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Man, you know, I mean I felt pretty good about
it at six and a half, Matt, yes, at nine.
At nine, I'm not so sure. I mean, that's just
that's a lot of lumber to play, even for a
really good team that has as few weaknesses as the
Eagles too. You know, nine points against a non Patsy
opponent that's a little too tall for me.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Divisional it's a divisional game to start this season. Nine.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
I know, teams that are coming off of championships who
have opened up, generally speaking, do pretty well against the spread.
I think it's fourteen and fourteen, seven and one over
the last twenty two games that we've seen this. But
I mean it's a distracted it's a distraction night. I mean,
it's it's a championship banner night, and you think about
(09:25):
all everything happened last year versus what happened this year,
and you can get caught. I mean, the Patriots got
beat years you know, famously a bunch of years ago
on their banner night. And I don't think the Eagles
win the or lose the game, but I could see,
you know how high doing that number goes.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Can we see ten by the time we get to
kick off?
Speaker 3 (09:44):
We maybe could?
Speaker 1 (09:45):
There's what's different nine and ten.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
There's no real difference from a book perspective, right, and
then ten's the key number.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
And everyone wants to bet the opener, So there's going
to be a big volume of bets coming in, and
I think most of those bets are going on the Eagles.
Maybe it does go to ten, in which case I
might have to think about middling this. Trying to middle it.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
It's a good play. I mean, if you have six
and a half, it's a great play.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
It puts me right on that a seven point Eagles
win and the season gets off to a good start.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
The total it's forty seven and a half. Doesn't it
feel like most games involving the Cowboys will be overs
this year?
Speaker 3 (10:20):
And it seems like haven't the Thursday Night Openers hit
the over pretty consistently in the last few years, So Yeah,
I do think overs maybe the way.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
To go here, Casey and the Chargers overseas. Look, I
hate betting overseas games, and I can't believe that the
Chiefs are giving up and the Chargers are giving up
games like this, the Chargers giving up a home game
on top of that against their biggest rival in the
Chiefs to go overseas one. What do you make of
(10:54):
a handicap involving an overseas team, because last year we
saw it with the Eagles and the turf being a problem.
What do you make of the Chargers hosting the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
Yeah, I kind of don't want to touch it, Matt,
because of the overseas factor, the travel, the fact that
the Packers and the Eagles played on an ice skating
rink last year. In this game, maybe it makes me
want to lean over with the fenders falling down and
things like that, but I'm probably just not.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
Going to touch it.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Yeah, numbers three, it feels right. I think the Chargers.
If they were at home, I think they would be
live to win this game. I think they still have
a really good shot at winning this game. I think
the Chargers are going to be a tough out against
anyone this year. And I think that the Chiefs are
going to have a step back year. Nobody wants to
acknowledge that, but people picking the Chiefs to go to
(11:42):
the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
I kind of laugh at and go, what are we doing?
Speaker 2 (11:46):
Are we just assuming yes, it's Patrick Mahomes. But the
AFC is going to be far more difficult In the
AFC West, It's going to be as difficult as it's
ever been since Patrick Mahomes has entered the NFL. He's
got three teams that all can beat him on any
given Sunday, and that has not been the case for
a while. The Buffalo Bills they got to walk in
the park in the AFC East. But the AFC West
(12:09):
is really really difficult this season with the everyone loving
the Broncos, the Raiders looking comparable, and the Charges. Like
we talked about, any shot in your mind that case
does not win the West.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
I think it's possible, and I think Denver would be
the team that could take them down, because that probably
is the best defense in the NFL right now. But
if the Chiefs have their offensive line fixed, and it
seems like maybe they could. I mean, they stole Josh
Simmons at the end of the first round, like getting
the best pure tackle in the draft because he was
coming off this knee injury and then he turned out
(12:43):
to be aoka and you know, took part in training
camp and all that and is ready to start at
left tackle. Like that's the secret sauce. Like, if they
have the offensive line fixed, I think they're going to
win the division. But Denver could be a problem.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
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(13:20):
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activating your trial on the upgrade screen. Okay, we're going
to give three bets that we're watching that we might make.
(13:41):
Now that it's a capital m might, underscore itele sized might. Okay,
these aren't plays per se, but these are plays that
we might make in numbers that we are watching for Sunday. Pat,
you can go first, what's a market? What's a bet
you're looking to make come Sunday?
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Texans rams under forty three and a half. Matt, I'm
always kind of looking at unders in Week one. I
think the defenses tend to be ahead of the offenses
coming out of you know what little amounts for a
preseason these days. I know our colleague Andrew Erickson has
been on the under for this game for weeks, if
not months. The Texans had one of the worst offensive
(14:20):
lines in the league last year, quite possibly the worst,
and their first big offensive line personnel move of the offseason,
they traded away their best offensive lineman, left tackle Laramie Tonsel.
Like this line is going to be really bad again,
and good luck keeping Jared Verse away from CJ. Stroud
in that opener, and good luck running the ball with
(14:41):
post knee injury Nick Chubb working behind that offensive line.
But the Texans do have a nasty defense. They ranked
third in defensive DVA last season. The edge rushing tag
team of Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter is truly fearsome.
And you know, Rams QB Matt Stafford probably isn't f
to nimble these days with the back issues he's been having,
(15:02):
So the Rams have good cornerbacks to match or excuse me,
the Texans have good cornerbacks to match up with Hukiniku
and DeVante Adams, you know, led by Derek Stingley Junior.
I just think Texans Rams turns into kind of a
low scoring taffy poll. Matt like, I love the under
forty three and a half here.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
I like it a lot, and I think some really
good points about where the Texans are. And I don't
know what to make of the Texans offense, to be
quite honest, I think we've got a big I think
it's a big year for CJ.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Stroud.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
I think it's also a huge year for Tamiko Ryan.
I think to go out there and prove that, like
the start to his career as the head coach, wasn't
a fluke. So I don't know. I'm gonna wait and
see and watch mode. If I'm gonna back the Texans,
I gotta see some improvement here over the next couple
of weeks to start the year. But I like the
under for me. It's also an under. It's Pittsburgh and
(15:53):
New York under thirty nine. I just I don't think
the Jets are going to score at all this year.
I think the just and fields l offense is going
to be run and run and run. I just they
have Garrett Wilson and what else is really part of
that receiving corps that's going to scare teams, And if
you have a decent secondary, you can take away Garrett
Wilson and make them run the football.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
On the flip side, you have.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
A new defensive coordinator slash head coach, and you've got
a guy who did great jobs a great job in
Detroit now coming over and taking over this defense. There's
a lot of talent on that defense for the Jets,
And I don't know what to make Aaron Rodgers. I
have no clue what this offense is going to look
like in Pittsburgh out of the gate.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
It might look great.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
They might run the ball really effectively, but I think
both teams want to run and play defense under thirty
nine and it's been dropping opened up at thirty nine
and a half. It's dropped down a thirty nine or
thirty eight and a half, depending on where you're looking.
But how do you feel about under Jets Steelers?
Speaker 3 (16:53):
Pretty good? I think it's an excellent call. It's hard
to see this game getting the forty points, and you know,
Aaron Rodgers having to get in sync with a new
cast of pass catchers, which isn't really that talented a
cast of pass catchers other than maybe DK Metcalf. Metcalf
doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to
pairwell with Rogers being the timing guy. Rogers loves it
(17:15):
when receivers are in a certain spot at a certain point,
whereas DK Metcalf is just gonna I'm gonna run down
the field and throw it up for me and let
me just snatch it away from whoever's trying to guard me.
So yeah, that and you know, justin fields, I know,
like in what little preseason action he saw wasn't real sharp. Like,
these are two of the worst groups of pass catchers
(17:36):
in the league. I don't know who's going to make
a play in this game, Matt. That's that's the issue.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
I find thirty nine in the market. There's a couple
of them out there, but it opened at thirty nine
and a half. Circus down to thirty eight and a
half already, bet number two for you, Pat, What are
you looking at?
Speaker 3 (17:52):
Seahawks plus two and a half at home against the
forty nine ers, I.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
Mean divisional game?
Speaker 3 (17:58):
Yeah, this, and I know divisional games can be unpredictable.
This line just seems so disrespectful to the Seahawks, Like,
are we just going to pretend the forty nine Ers
didn't finish dead last in the NFC West a year ago?
I mean they were six and eleven, the Seahawks were
ten and seven, And the forty nine Ers are favored
on the road in one of the toughest places to
play in the league. For a road team like the
(18:20):
Seahawks have a better defense than the forty nine Ers,
I'm confident in that.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Yeah, it's going to be a well coached unit under
Mike McDonald and I think Seattle could have a top
five d this year. They have a big special team's
edge based on what we saw last year. The Seahawks
were tenth in special Teams DVA, the forty nine Ers
thirty first. Hello, Jake Moody. I know the forty nine
Ers have a much more well regarded to offense than
(18:46):
the Seahawks, and that's fair. But like new offensive coordinator
Clint Kubiak is going to make a difference for Seattle,
and I think we saw that in the preseason. I
know it's only the preseason, but the Seattle first team
offense looked really good. The Kubiaks always have a good
running game. For years, it was Clint stad Gary working
as run game magic in Denver than in Houston. Now
(19:07):
it's Clint using that same outside zone scheme the great success.
And he's got his dad's old offensive assistant in Rick Dennison,
who's going to help the running game go in Seattle.
And you know that line was always a problem last
year for Seattle. First round pick grays Abel looks like
he's going to be an instant like Pro Bowl type guy.
His preseason tape was incredible. He's just a furniture mover
(19:29):
in the running game. So I love Seattle in the
two and a half points, Matt, I think Seattle wins outright.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Ooh, how about that home look divisional teams right now,
taking home dogs and divisional games early in seasons has
been very profitable, So I like it my second one,
and this is my team, Raiders catching three on the
road against the Patriots. I think everyone is sleeping a
little bit on what the Raiders are going to look like,
in particular early in the season, when they're gonna have
(19:57):
their offensive line healthy and they're gonna have ass gingenty
without having a lot of tread on the tires right
out of the gate. They have a comparable quarterback in
Geno Smith, and everyone is in love with the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
I like the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
I'm not in love with them the same way that
everybody else is because I don't know how quickly Josh
mcdaniels's offense is going to be picked up upon by
Drake May and look, I hope that it's awesome. I mean,
help is quick, but the amount of money that's being
met on the over and the fact that people are
thinking out of the gate, the Patriots are going to
blow the doors off the Raiders. Like, this is not
(20:32):
a mid season trip for a West Coast team going east.
This is the first game of the year, so this
is plenty of you know, fresh legs and get into
your routine. And Pete Carroll is a really good coach.
I like Mike vrabel A lot. I think it's gonna
be really good long term. But out of the gate,
I got big questions about what the Patriots are gonna
(20:52):
look like here, and everyone just thinks that they're gonna
win ten games and this is an automatic w against
the Raiders. I get three points, the Raiders might win
the game outright, and the Patriots are going to be
left going what just happened?
Speaker 1 (21:05):
How do you feel about the Raiders of the Patriots? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Because it's Week one, are you less concerned about the
West Coast team going early for an early start game? Yeah, yes,
Like I would not want to make that bet in
Week eight. Agree, But it's probably not going to be
that big a factor. You figure they're going to be
in town a couple of days early and acclimated the
time change, so it's.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
A peak care revenge game.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
I mean, he's going back to he he hates the Patriots,
the Patriots hates him. There's just so much bad blood here.
I mean, he's his team's going to be ready. I mean,
there's no debate in my mind. The Raiders are coming
into Foxborough focused.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Yeah, I'm with you, Like the Raiders are a live
dog and their personnel is not bad. Like I don't
think their secondary is great, but you know, Ken Drake
May and just a kind of a SOS group of
pass catchers take advantage. I don't know, so I getting three.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Yeah, I kind of like that beat number three play
for you this.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
Oh, it's going to be another under, Matt. It's going
to be Giants Commanders under forty five and a half.
And for me not to want to bet the under
in a Week one game with a total of forty
five or higher, it has to be a couple of
good offenses and a couple of less than stellar defenses,
or maybe just a couple of great offenses. Like I'm
not I'm not interested in betting the under and Ravens
(22:21):
bills for instance, But Giants commanders forty five and a
half seems way too steep for any game involving the
Giants this year. Who I think could be an under machine.
They were the second lowest scoring team in the league
last year. Only the Browns scored fewer points. Their Week
one quarterback is Russell Wilson, who is clearly passed his
(22:42):
Sell by date. The Giants defense looks pretty imposing. I
mean they can come in opposing quarterbacks with Dexter Lawrence,
Brian Burns, Kevon Thibodeau and rookie Studd Abdul Carter like.
That's a pretty fearsome pass rush right there. And no
disrespect to jayde Daniels, who's terrific, but the Giants defense
is legitimately scary.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Now.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
I don't know if this game gets to forty let
alone to forty six, So under forty five and a
half looks real good to me.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Now I'm the Giant hater here, so I'm on the
under five and a half wins for the Giants this year.
But my handicap on that fits right back into what
you're talking about. I do think their defense is going
to keep them in football games. I don't like their
offense at all. You can tell me about Mileague neighbors
all you want, but I just don't think the Giants
have an offense or a quarterback worth really being afraid of.
(23:31):
It could be thirteen to ten. I think most of
the games this year are going to look like that
for the Giants, low scoring, rock fight type football, and
then maybe later in the year they'll start to get
more loose and more developing of younger players on offense.
But I'm with you, I think this game is a
dead under just because I don't think the Giants are
going to score and I don't think the Giants give
(23:52):
up many points. Are you high on the Giants in
the regular season from a win total perspective? Do you
think they over five and a half?
Speaker 4 (24:00):
No?
Speaker 2 (24:00):
No?
Speaker 3 (24:01):
And their early season schedule is murderous, which is going
to give them the whole schedules murder Yeah, which gives
them the perfect excuse to, you know, pull the plate.
Jason Russell Wilson play Jackson Dart late in the season,
just kind of audition him, and like, I don't expect
Dart to be able to win a lot of games,
So I'm with you, Like, I don't have high hopes
for the team, but I do think they're gonna be
(24:22):
in a lot of rock fights with this defense. Like
the defense is pretty fearsome.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Yeah, my final one, I'm going to do it, and
I'm gonna watch this number and if it goes to six,
I'm gonna take it and I'm gonna tease it.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
But after two straight years of the.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Bengals losing on the week the first week of the
season and last year taking out everyone survivor pick and
will do some recommendations for that here in a second,
I'm gonna lay the five and a half or the
six with the Bengals on the road against the Browns
because the entire preseason has been focused on this football game.
(24:58):
They want to end the narrative. They want to get
out there and put up a ton of points. And
I think the Browns are going to be god awful
and I don't think they want to win. I don't
think they're trying to win. Whether it's for Arch Manning
or somebody else. The Browns are fielding a team that
just isn't respectable on both sides of the football. I'll
lay the five and a half points on the Bengals.
(25:18):
Will you follow me? Will you come with me on
this boat, Pat, because we're gonna be alone with some
people because they've been the darlings of the upset world
every week.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
One here's where I'm gonna have to push your boat
out to see and waved you from a shore. That
I just I don't know if I have enough trust
in the Bengals defense, even against a really bad offense
like after I'm kind of haunted by what we saw
in that preseason game against the Washington Commanders, where like
every Commander running back who touched the ball was breaking
(25:47):
off huge gains against the Bengals what I think was
mostly their first team defense at the time.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
So it's just kind of terrified. Do I think Joe
Burrow is going to pick his teeth with the Browns defense?
Probably unless we get some sort of hillacious weather in Cleveland,
and always possible we get the wind tunnel effect there
and the passing game doesn't work.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
So I've just.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
If it was closer to a field goal, I could
maybe go with you there. But it's what do you say,
is it five or five and a half.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
It's five and a half right now and climbing it's
going up. Yeah, it's not going down.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
It's going up, right If you're going to get the
Bengals like now, it's the time to get them. But
I think this one might be a stay away from me.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I think the Bengals in a big way finally get
that monkey off their back. Guys, we talked a lot
about highlighting edges already on this show. You can do
that with betting systems. That is something you can find
on the Betting pros app. Our system tool is designed
to help you find winning strategies to make smarter bets.
You can customize your betting system by sport, by bet type,
(26:48):
and time frame to find the best opportunities. Using real
time data and expert analysis, track the performance of different
betting systems over time and optimize your opportunities to succeed.
Download the Betting pros app today or go to bettingpros
dot com slash systems to elevate your betting strategies and
start making smarter bets, survivor contests, picks, and strategies. Pat,
(27:13):
I'm in a couple. I know you're in a couple.
Let's talk about it. Everyone in their mother Everyone is
going to be fading the Saints all year.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Factor fiction fact in fact, I mean the idea of
taking the Cardinals as a road team and a survivor pool.
I mean, that's counterintuitive to everything we think about survivor pools,
and yet people are going to do it against the
New Orleans Saints in Week one. I personally don't have
the guts to do it, but I think that is
(27:45):
like the bronze medalist pick for me when I'm looking
at survivor pool possibilities in week one.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
Do you have rules about survivor picks? Because I have rules.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
I mean, I generally generally don't like takeing a road
team at any point.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
I'll take road teams. I will never pick a game
involving a divisional rival.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Yes avoided.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
I will.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
I will never, ever, ever ever unless I have to
and I have no choice and nothing is left but
a divisional game. I just I start the schedule by
going through in Dallas and Philly cross it off. You
just go through Chiefs and Chargers cross it off, like
they're not even possible conversations each week for me when
it comes to divisional games, because they are wonky and
(28:30):
they do not go the way that you think they're
gonna go.
Speaker 3 (28:33):
Yeah, so Dallas Philly is the one where, like my
I'm generally with you on that, Okay, but I just wonder, like,
has the Micah Parson's trade coming so soon before the
Seaton was? Was that like a morale wrecker for the Cowboys?
And I just you know, I I don't know if
the Eagles are going to lay an egg on Banner Night,
(28:56):
you know what I mean. So that definitely one of
the one of the games I'm looking at.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
This week, divisional game. I can't do it. Secondly, to
your point, road big road favorites, be really wary, you know,
be be real wary of a seven and a half
point line, eight point line for a team going on
the road. It's it's the level of disrespect and the
fact that players take their foot off their gas and
they think it's going to be an easy w and
(29:22):
it's not.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
So I'm often very very worried about that.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
And then revenge spots like I don't like if there's
a story like Pete Carroll going back to New England
for instance. Okay, those types of angles, whether it's factor fiction,
whether it's real or not, I tend to go and
look for something else because I don't want to get
bit and get knocked out Because somehow a coach was
able to rally and get his troops to go up
and storm the mountain just one time. It's only one game.
(29:48):
If for wrong, once we're dead in Survivor. So I
tend to look around, so you look at Dallas my
number one. The only play that I will make. I
think I'm putting everything, every single Survivor contest I've got
is on the Denver Broncos at home against the tennseee Titans.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
It's a home team. It's a seven to a point spread.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
It's so similar to the Patriots on the road last
year up against the Bengals. Like the scenario. The numbers
are the same, the handicaps the same. But I don't
think Sean Payton gets beat the same way that Zach
Taylor got beat last year. I like Denver to win,
how about you?
Speaker 4 (30:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (30:29):
And having rookie quarterback cam Ward sort of get thrown
to the Wolves in his first game at Mile High.
At Mile High against this defense that can bring the
pass rush from so many different positions and then has
just an ice cold secondary. I mean, the Titans defense
could be pretty decent with Jeffrey Simmons leading the way upfront,
(30:51):
and the offensive line should be better and healthier you know,
and what if cam Ward is good right away? So
I've been trying to like look at reverse engineering this
and figuring out how this could go wrong. But man,
like this does look like a pretty good percentage play here,
Like it's it would be really hard to see the
(31:13):
Titans going in and winning this game.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Anything else I like Denver, you look at Dallas, anything
else you like from a survivor perspective.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Yeah, I mean you mentioned the Bengals as one possibility,
but I know a lot of people got burned by
them last year.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
You got Coohonis, you got stones if you if you
picked the Bengals in Week one last year and lost,
if you go back to the well in particular, if
you're in a high stake survivor pool, you got to
I'm gonna tip my cap, right or wrong. I mean,
you are a gambler if you picked the Bengals.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
Yeah, So, I mean I know a lot of what
a lot of people like. If you don't like picking
division games. I get it. If that is your policy,
I understand it. It's generally good policy, and I do
think a lot of people will want to save the
Eagles for later, looking after their at their schedule like
after Week one road game against the Chiefs, home game
(32:06):
against the Rams, who gave them their toughest battle in
the playoffs, at Tampa Bay home against Denver at the Giants,
at the Vikings home against the Giants in Week eight.
So really none of those games look like layups unless
well until that home game against the Giants in Week eight,
and you know, maybe if you want to take them.
(32:26):
I don't know if you'd ever want to take a
road divisional game against the Giants, So.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
You know, like.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
I do think there's a case for the Eagles right now.
I'm kind of torn between the Eagles and Broncos and
might actually split my three survivor pools on those. So
no Seattle. You were pretty high on the Pingos. There
no Seattle's road or they're a home underdog. So yeah,
(32:56):
I mean I like them, but I don't feel confident
enough to pick them in a survivor.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
I'll give the NFL credit. There are so many divisional
games in week number one. Let's see, there's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
There's eight divisional games, so there's a lot. So like
it makes Week one even more treacherous, and that's why
(33:22):
I think everyone is going to be on Denver. So
if you are a chaos theory person like I am,
I love watching Survivor pools blow up. And that's why
I told everybody all last summer, the Patriots are going
to beat the Bengals. And because everyone was running around
all year long saying take the Bengals, Take the Bengals,
it's a very similar refrain with the Broncos. And I
know I'm running right with the masses, and I could
(33:43):
be running right off the cliff with everybody else. And
so I don't mind your thought of saying, like, well,
everyone's going to be taking the Sunday games, I'll take
the Thursday game and get out of the way, because
the Eagles losing would be somewhat stunning to the Cowboys.
It's just what scares me is if the Cowboys defense,
again with Mett Eberflus, is better than we think, and
(34:04):
then all of a sudden we have Dak throwing a
very good secondary for the Eagles, mind you, but if
Pickens all of a sudden turns into this amazing number
two weapon and the Cowboys are going up that up
and down the field on the on this Eagles defense.
That's my one concern with that game. So none of
these games are easy. It's week one. I mean every
Survivor game is going to be a sweat in a
(34:25):
lot of ways.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
We'll ask you.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
One more, RAMS hosting the Texans. Can you take the
Rams in a Survivor pool? Now what stuffers back?
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Right?
Speaker 3 (34:36):
You can't?
Speaker 1 (34:36):
You can't trust it?
Speaker 3 (34:37):
Yeah, not yet. Just like I the Texans defense is
too good for me to feel comfortable with that game.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
Yeah, it's gonna be. Week one is a minefield.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
This is gonna be fun to do this every week,
but week one it's an absolute mindful just survive in advance.
Like just ess, if you're going to Survivor pool, just
hope you get past week one and week two because
those two weeks last year in the Survivor, in the
Circus Survivor, which this year will be close to twenty
million dollars in the prize pool, last year, thirty five
percent got knocked out in the first week. They had
(35:12):
to go back and off for a rebuy and let
people bought back back in because they had so many
people knocked out in week number one. So if Denver loses,
it's the same scenario, it's gonna knock out thirty forty
percent of the entire field will get knocked out in
week number one. Guys, want to track all your wagers
in one place, check out the Betting Pros Pick Tracker.
It syncs up with your sports books to tally picks
(35:35):
hits in, which misses, and which don't. Plus, it gives
you a live look at what the public is doing,
so you can see real time tracking data to determine
which place to make in which to fade. That's on
our users, by the way, which is kind of neat
you're going to feel for how the Betting Pros users.
It's not like we're going behind the counter of a
sports book. We're actually taking it from our data, our
(35:55):
own people that are using the app, and that's hundreds
of thousands of people who are going to be entering
in these bets. They're going to be able to tell you, guys,
what they're picking to either fade or follow the Betting
Pros community. You can track your picks today with Betting
Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com, slash tracking, or on
the Betting Pros app. All right, let's talk about Sunday
(36:16):
a little bit, and what may be looking as as
a play. Is there a bet that you like, a
bet that you would make right now that you'd lock
in for Sunday, A pick, a prop, a future something
that you'd bet right now.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
One last bet I want to make on a division winner, Matt, Like,
last opportunity before the regular season gets underway. The Seattle Seahawks.
Like I hinted at this earlier, they have the longest
dodts to win the NFC West at five to one
and against you, by the way, Yeah, I bet I
bet the Niners at plus one fifty. Interesting.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Yeah, so I got plus money and the Niners, though,
I was like, you give me plus money at the
Niners gotta take it.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
Yeah, I just I don't know if it's the same
Niners team, Matt, and I think.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
But still McCaffrey though, I mean, you've still got chrisip mcas.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Yeah, it's a running back. Like, I'm not betting a
team to win a division based on a running back. Seattle,
I think just I think they have the best defense
in the division, like with Mike McDonald's who I trust
immensely coordinating it, you know, calling the shots Leonard Williams
and Reid and Dexter Lawrence up front, and these young
(37:21):
up and coming pass rushers and Devon Witherspoon headlining like
one of the more talented secondaries in the league. And
I kind of trust Clint Kubiak to get this offense going.
Like I know, there's still not a lot of love
out there for Sam Donald, even after the even after
the redemptive season he had with the Vikings last year,
but with everything else Seattle has going on, like, I
(37:43):
think Donald will be good enough to get the Seahawks
over the top and at least in contention. And I
like the pot odds here at five to one.
Speaker 2 (37:53):
It is a great numbers play, I'll give you that
in a division that is pretty wide open, with the Rams,
questions at Stafford clearly, the questions around the forty nine ers.
Everyone just thinking they're gonna pick right back up after
one down year, but that defense has still got some
problems and some question marks, and Seattle is a very
tough place to play. I mean, going through Seattle is
really hard. So I just the Sam Darnald thing makes
(38:15):
me worried because I wonder how about Kevin O'Connell, how
much of it was him versus how much of it
was Sam Darnald, So how much was it the offense
and the quarterback whisperer if you will, I mean the
numbers and all the bets on Jj McCarthy. Everyone loves
Jj McCarthy to have a monster year under Koc with
the vikings. I guess we'll see whether it's was it
(38:35):
Donald or was it Koc. We'll find out once we
get to Jj and see what he looks like. So
for me, in terms of extra bets that I would make,
I still would really look at Ashton Genty. If you
haven't gotten involved in the Ashton Genty market yet, I
would really look to do.
Speaker 4 (38:50):
So.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
I bet over seven and a half rushing touchdowns for
Ashton Genty this year, and I think he's going to
vulture a lot of touchdowns from players to get knocked
out at the one or the two, and the Raiders
are going to run the ball like that's just what
they're going to do this year. And I know it's
a rookie, but I don't mind backing rookies that look
like ash Gingenty because I think they have the ability
(39:13):
to break a lot of tackles. And to be highly
effective in the red zone. So ashtonenty over seven a
half touchdowns if you can find it, I think is
a good bet for him.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
And offensive Rookie of the Year isn't a bad.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
Play either with ashtingenty, just because I think of usage,
he's going to be getting a ton of carries. Where
are you on the offensive line for the Raiders. How
big of a concern is that for you?
Speaker 3 (39:35):
Oh, I think it's I think it's adequate. You know,
I don't think it's going to be a problem for genty.
I mean, I just I love the contact balance.
Speaker 2 (39:43):
Man.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
It's like his contact balance is truly extraordinary. Like you
have to just clabber that dude to get him off
his feet. It is not easy, like he does not
want to go down and like I am with you
pretty much slam the any Ashton j over.
Speaker 1 (40:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
I think rushing yards is ten seventy five, which is
not a ton. If he says healthy, he should get that.
So there's a lot of action, gent markets. I think
you guys could could wind up getting into as well.
Anything on Sunday that you think should be bet right
now from a numbers perspective, I mean, any game that
you would fire on right now.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
Yeah, I mean, well, I'm totally with you on the
under on Steelers chats, like I just.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
I would take that now that numbers that that's I'm
with you.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
I'm on the same market where if you can find
thirty nine, take it, because I think might be thirty
six and a half by the time we get to
kick off.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
Yeah, and man, like I'm a Packers fan, but like
Detroit has completely had our number since Dan Campbell has
gotten there. And like for Detroit to you know, they
started as a dog even before the Packers traded for
Micah Parsons, And now Detroit is getting two and a
half points and they're plus one twenty four looking at
(40:56):
DraftKings right now to you know, plus one twenty four
on the money line, Like I'm probably gonna bebut Detroit
on the money line.
Speaker 1 (41:06):
It's gonna be a lot of fun. Week one is here.
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Every single week you're gonna get Pappist Morris and myself,
Matt Parrel's breaking down the NFL lines, the look ahead numbers,
the survivor pick options, and bets that we're going to
be looking to make before we get to the weekend.
Make sure you hit subscribe if you've not done that,
so you're alerted whenever these videos go live all season long.
For pat On Matt, We'll talk to you next week
(41:29):
for Week two of the NFL Early Bets and Survivor Pools.
Speaker 1 (41:33):
Here with Betting Pros.
Speaker 4 (41:35):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
What's up, guys? How are you?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Welcome into week number one of the NFL FITZI Peralt.
We're gonna be here with you guys all season. This
is going to be fun as we get into all
the picks, plays, early looks, survivor pools.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
If you guys are in them.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Well, we're gonna give you some options here for us
to talk.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Pat, Great to see you. How are you. It's football
once again?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Doing great, Matt. Great to be on with you again.
And I've been getting ready for fantasy football for a
long time. I feel like I've bet in the weeds
for that for a long time. I forgot how I'm
much I missed preparing for these shows and like studying,
like figuring out what I wanted to bet every week.
You know, I bet some other sports during the offseason,
but like it's just not the same, you know, betting
(00:46):
basketball or what have you. It's just not as enjoyable.
And I love digging into the weeds and doing this,
and that's what we're going to talk about today. I've
I think this is my fourth show I'm recording today,
and this is the one I was most excited about.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Well, it's fun because we have. We're doing some new
stuff here at Betting Pros. Obviously, if you guys haven't
gone and downloaded the new app or updated the app,
you should do so, because there's some really cool features
that drop this week with the Betting Pros app. But
I talked about it on The Daily Juice a little bit.
The fact that you know, we're trying some new things
and trying to test out.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Some new things.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
So we were doing Thursday live streams heading into Thursday,
and we kind of figured, well, look at the whole
week people are talking about these games. We don't have
to wait till Thursday to get into Thursday night. We
can start talking about it on Tuesday morning, and you
know how this come out Wednesday and have a conversation
about what the line might be for Sunday, for Sunday
or Monday, even for Monday Night football. So this is
(01:40):
going to be fun every week to kind of go
deeper into the lines and look at what will happen.
And then Sunday when we do the NFL live stream
live heading into kickoff, we can reference back to this
video as to what we thought might happen. So really
going to be a fun football year. I can't wait
to see it on Thursday when the Eagles drop the banner,
and then we'll see what happens overseas with the Chiefs
(02:03):
game against the Chargers and whatnot. But let me ask
you a little bit about your preseason work for betting,
because it's different than fantasy obviously, right we're talking about
usage and we're talking about what will happen for an
individual player. How much does that help you when it
comes to handicapping and preparing for a season long talking
about a prop bet or a prop market for a
player or team come the whole year versus individually.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah, I mean, I think the fantasy stuff helps with
player prop research for the team wins in totals like
that some of the stuff we've been thinking about and
working on and with the numbers we've dug into, like
that matters for some of this side and total stuff.
But there's also a lot more to consider. The defenses,
the offensive line play, the coaching, the personnel moves, the
(02:51):
coaching moves, like all that factors in the matchups and
the trends, like what happens when two divisional rivals go
at it and how has that series gone in the
last couple of years, So there are definitely more layers
that we have to get into, and like the fantasy
research maybe helps you get a foothold, but there is
a lot more you need to look at.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Was there a major storyline for you? Like for me,
I'm a Patriot fan, so obviously the Patriots getting Mike
Vrabel and getting what looks like a competent coach in
place after what happened with Gerrod Mayo where it was
just a mess and things did not look like it
was going in the right direction. The Patriots cut bait
quickly and added a competent coach. Was there a storyline
(03:33):
for you that made headlines that was bigger than another
one that may help you either bet or fade a team.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
The Micaeh Parsons trade was kind of a big one here,
kinda And yeah, I mean like definitely gives the Packers
a boost. I mean, we saw them go from I
think twenty two to one to win the Super Bowl
to thirteen to one and become the favorite to win
the NFC North overnight with that deal. And you know, Dallas,
(04:01):
I mean I haven't looked at what their win total.
That's the one thing I've neglected to look at what
their team win total is now, but I would imagine
it's kind of crashed from where it was. And I
didn't have great feelings about the Cowboys anyway going into
this season, but man, we saw that. I'm actually kind
of surprised the line didn't move more than two points
(04:22):
after this. But I was lucky enough to get Philly
at minus six and a half and now it's at
minus eight and a half. So it's just you wonder,
I mean, like giving away a key player like that,
if that just crashes morale on that team, and you know,
Dallas kind of becomes a punching bag this year.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
It's going to be wild to watch because I have
made the analogy as a Red Sox fan that when
Raphael Devers was traded, that the Red Sox decided to
remove a cancer and send a player away that was
going to be a major distraction, and the Red Sox
took off after they traded away Raphael Devers. It's different
in football, obviously, in my Parsons is a different player.
(05:01):
He's a better player than Rafael Devers from a defensive
perspective and the impact he makes on the game. Just
for example, The Cowboys are now sixty to one to
win the Super Bowl at Fandel, so they are very far.
They're seven to one to win the Division. I still
like them to win the division. Everyone thinks I'm crazy
about that call. I still like the Cowboys to win
(05:21):
the Division. I think the Egos are going to have
a rough season when it comes to injuries. They had
everything go right last year, and historically speaking, when a
team avoids the injury bug like they did last year
and a running back like Saquon Barkley and a running
quarterback like Jalen Hurts stays away from the injury bug,
I think the injury bug might bite them. I can't
back the Commanders for anything because their defense just is
(05:44):
not something I want to get involved with. And I
think the Jayden Daniels sophomore slump might be real, Like
that could happen when the teams now have a lot
of tape on him to watch and prepare for that
offense for the Commanders. I don't love the Terry McLaurin deal.
I think he's an aging wide receiver, so we'll see
what he's able to put up with from a stat standpoint.
(06:05):
So I still like the Cowboys, not to win, not
to win the Super Bowl, but I do think they
could win the division. And yes, everyone's running away from
the Cowboys. That's kind of a team why. I'm like,
maybe it's a galvanizing factor, you know, maybe it causes
the team to circle the wagons.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
I don't like Jerry Jones, but.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
Like, is it possible that Dak Prescott and company that
they just outscore everybody?
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Yeah, I mean they could do that. I don't know
if their line is as good as it was a
few years ago, but they do have a lot of
well their their passing game is going to be chrisp
with Dak and Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens and Jake Ferguson. Yeah,
and maybe like they could do an ensemble cast job
with the pass rush with you know, Sam Williams and
(06:49):
Azeraku and like they've they've got a volume of pass rushers.
So maybe they can kind of pull everything together and
circle the wagons.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I mean, Cowboys fans obviously are praying that that happens.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Is that going to happen?
Speaker 2 (07:06):
I don't know, but their schedule is a third place schedule,
and I think that that's one big benefit. And look,
Matt Eberflus could not be a head coach, but we
know the guy can coach defense. I mean, he's a
good defensive coordinator, So if that's his role, like Josh
mcdam's with the Patriots, he's a great offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
He's a horrible head coach.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
If eber Flues can get takeaways, which is what his
defenses tend to specialize in. That can change football games,
That can flip seasons if you're leading, you know, if
you're doing the little things to create turnovers. So I'm
not nearly as far out on the Cowboys as everybody
else is.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
And even though I do know that people love to.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Hate on Dallas and I've been called all of a
sudden a Cowboys lover, and I'm not like, I'm a
Patriot fan, so like I like you, just like Jerry Jones,
you're a Cowboys I'm actually not like I don't like
the Cowboys, I don't like the Lakers, I don't like
the Yankees, like I don't like any of those teams.
I just see value in a seven to one ticket
now on the Cowboys to win the division, given that
(08:05):
nobody has gone back to back in the NFC East
since two thousand and three, two thousand and four when
the Eagles did it. So it's it's been a minute.
It's been twenty years over since someone's gone back to back.
But we can talk about the Eagles obviously and get
into what's happening here with the start of the season
Dallas and Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
This number is nine at circa, it's nine.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Pat What do we I mean, we're talking blowout here
on Banner Night where it's a walk in the park
for the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Man, you know, I mean I felt pretty good about
it at six and a half, Matt, yes, at nine.
At nine, I'm not so sure. I mean, that's just
that's a lot of lumber to play, even for a
really good team that has as few weaknesses as the
Eagles too. You know, nine points against a non Patsy
opponent that's a little too tall for me.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Divisional it's a divisional game to start this season. Nine.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
I know, teams that are coming off of championships who
have opened up, generally speaking, do pretty well against the spread.
I think it's fourteen and fourteen, seven and one over
the last twenty two games that we've seen this. But
I mean it's a distracted it's a distraction night. I mean,
it's it's a championship banner night, and you think about
(09:25):
all everything happened last year versus what happened this year,
and you can get caught. I mean, the Patriots got
beat years you know, famously a bunch of years ago
on their banner night. And I don't think the Eagles
win the or lose the game, but I could see,
you know how high doing that number goes.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Can we see ten by the time we get to
kick off?
Speaker 3 (09:44):
We maybe could?
Speaker 1 (09:45):
There's what's different nine and ten.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
There's no real difference from a book perspective, right, and
then ten's the key number.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
And everyone wants to bet the opener, So there's going
to be a big volume of bets coming in, and
I think most of those bets are going on the Eagles.
Maybe it does go to ten, in which case I
might have to think about middling this. Trying to middle it.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
It's a good play. I mean, if you have six
and a half, it's a great play.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
It puts me right on that a seven point Eagles
win and the season gets off to a good start.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
The total it's forty seven and a half. Doesn't it
feel like most games involving the Cowboys will be overs
this year?
Speaker 3 (10:20):
And it seems like haven't the Thursday Night Openers hit
the over pretty consistently in the last few years, So Yeah,
I do think overs maybe the way.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
To go here, Casey and the Chargers overseas. Look, I
hate betting overseas games, and I can't believe that the
Chiefs are giving up and the Chargers are giving up
games like this, the Chargers giving up a home game
on top of that against their biggest rival in the
Chiefs to go overseas one. What do you make of
(10:54):
a handicap involving an overseas team, because last year we
saw it with the Eagles and the turf being a problem.
What do you make of the Chargers hosting the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
Yeah, I kind of don't want to touch it, Matt,
because of the overseas factor, the travel, the fact that
the Packers and the Eagles played on an ice skating
rink last year. In this game, maybe it makes me
want to lean over with the fenders falling down and
things like that, but I'm probably just not.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
Going to touch it.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Yeah, numbers three, it feels right. I think the Chargers.
If they were at home, I think they would be
live to win this game. I think they still have
a really good shot at winning this game. I think
the Chargers are going to be a tough out against
anyone this year. And I think that the Chiefs are
going to have a step back year. Nobody wants to
acknowledge that, but people picking the Chiefs to go to
(11:42):
the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
I kind of laugh at and go, what are we doing?
Speaker 2 (11:46):
Are we just assuming yes, it's Patrick Mahomes. But the
AFC is going to be far more difficult In the
AFC West, It's going to be as difficult as it's
ever been since Patrick Mahomes has entered the NFL. He's
got three teams that all can beat him on any
given Sunday, and that has not been the case for
a while. The Buffalo Bills they got to walk in
the park in the AFC East. But the AFC West
(12:09):
is really really difficult this season with the everyone loving
the Broncos, the Raiders looking comparable, and the Charges. Like
we talked about, any shot in your mind that case
does not win the West.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
I think it's possible, and I think Denver would be
the team that could take them down, because that probably
is the best defense in the NFL right now. But
if the Chiefs have their offensive line fixed, and it
seems like maybe they could. I mean, they stole Josh
Simmons at the end of the first round, like getting
the best pure tackle in the draft because he was
coming off this knee injury and then he turned out
(12:43):
to be aoka and you know, took part in training
camp and all that and is ready to start at
left tackle. Like that's the secret sauce. Like, if they
have the offensive line fixed, I think they're going to
win the division. But Denver could be a problem.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Like I mentioned, guys, the Betting pros app has been updated.
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(13:20):
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trial of betting pros Premium. That's the code Juice and
activating your trial on the upgrade screen. Okay, we're going
to give three bets that we're watching that we might make.
(13:41):
Now that it's a capital m might, underscore itele sized might. Okay,
these aren't plays per se, but these are plays that
we might make in numbers that we are watching for Sunday. Pat,
you can go first, what's a market? What's a bet
you're looking to make come Sunday?
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Texans rams under forty three and a half. Matt, I'm
always kind of looking at unders in Week one. I
think the defenses tend to be ahead of the offenses
coming out of you know what little amounts for a
preseason these days. I know our colleague Andrew Erickson has
been on the under for this game for weeks, if
not months. The Texans had one of the worst offensive
(14:20):
lines in the league last year, quite possibly the worst,
and their first big offensive line personnel move of the offseason,
they traded away their best offensive lineman, left tackle Laramie Tonsel.
Like this line is going to be really bad again,
and good luck keeping Jared Verse away from CJ. Stroud
in that opener, and good luck running the ball with
(14:41):
post knee injury Nick Chubb working behind that offensive line.
But the Texans do have a nasty defense. They ranked
third in defensive DVA last season. The edge rushing tag
team of Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter is truly fearsome.
And you know, Rams QB Matt Stafford probably isn't f
to nimble these days with the back issues he's been having,
(15:02):
So the Rams have good cornerbacks to match or excuse me,
the Texans have good cornerbacks to match up with Hukiniku
and DeVante Adams, you know, led by Derek Stingley Junior.
I just think Texans Rams turns into kind of a
low scoring taffy poll. Matt like, I love the under
forty three and a half here.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
I like it a lot, and I think some really
good points about where the Texans are. And I don't
know what to make of the Texans offense, to be
quite honest, I think we've got a big I think
it's a big year for CJ.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Stroud.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
I think it's also a huge year for Tamiko Ryan.
I think to go out there and prove that, like
the start to his career as the head coach, wasn't
a fluke. So I don't know. I'm gonna wait and
see and watch mode. If I'm gonna back the Texans,
I gotta see some improvement here over the next couple
of weeks to start the year. But I like the
under for me. It's also an under. It's Pittsburgh and
(15:53):
New York under thirty nine. I just I don't think
the Jets are going to score at all this year.
I think the just and fields l offense is going
to be run and run and run. I just they
have Garrett Wilson and what else is really part of
that receiving corps that's going to scare teams, And if
you have a decent secondary, you can take away Garrett
Wilson and make them run the football.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
On the flip side, you have.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
A new defensive coordinator slash head coach, and you've got
a guy who did great jobs a great job in
Detroit now coming over and taking over this defense. There's
a lot of talent on that defense for the Jets,
And I don't know what to make Aaron Rodgers. I
have no clue what this offense is going to look
like in Pittsburgh out of the gate.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
It might look great.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
They might run the ball really effectively, but I think
both teams want to run and play defense under thirty
nine and it's been dropping opened up at thirty nine
and a half. It's dropped down a thirty nine or
thirty eight and a half, depending on where you're looking.
But how do you feel about under Jets Steelers?
Speaker 3 (16:53):
Pretty good? I think it's an excellent call. It's hard
to see this game getting the forty points, and you know,
Aaron Rodgers having to get in sync with a new
cast of pass catchers, which isn't really that talented a
cast of pass catchers other than maybe DK Metcalf. Metcalf
doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to
pairwell with Rogers being the timing guy. Rogers loves it
(17:15):
when receivers are in a certain spot at a certain point,
whereas DK Metcalf is just gonna I'm gonna run down
the field and throw it up for me and let
me just snatch it away from whoever's trying to guard me.
So yeah, that and you know, justin fields, I know,
like in what little preseason action he saw wasn't real sharp. Like,
these are two of the worst groups of pass catchers
(17:36):
in the league. I don't know who's going to make
a play in this game, Matt. That's that's the issue.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
I find thirty nine in the market. There's a couple
of them out there, but it opened at thirty nine
and a half. Circus down to thirty eight and a
half already, bet number two for you, Pat, What are
you looking at?
Speaker 3 (17:52):
Seahawks plus two and a half at home against the
forty nine ers, I.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
Mean divisional game?
Speaker 3 (17:58):
Yeah, this, and I know divisional games can be unpredictable.
This line just seems so disrespectful to the Seahawks, Like,
are we just going to pretend the forty nine Ers
didn't finish dead last in the NFC West a year ago?
I mean they were six and eleven, the Seahawks were
ten and seven, And the forty nine Ers are favored
on the road in one of the toughest places to
play in the league. For a road team like the
(18:20):
Seahawks have a better defense than the forty nine Ers,
I'm confident in that.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Yeah, it's going to be a well coached unit under
Mike McDonald and I think Seattle could have a top
five d this year. They have a big special team's
edge based on what we saw last year. The Seahawks
were tenth in special Teams DVA, the forty nine Ers
thirty first. Hello, Jake Moody. I know the forty nine
Ers have a much more well regarded to offense than
(18:46):
the Seahawks, and that's fair. But like new offensive coordinator
Clint Kubiak is going to make a difference for Seattle,
and I think we saw that in the preseason. I
know it's only the preseason, but the Seattle first team
offense looked really good. The Kubiaks always have a good
running game. For years, it was Clint stad Gary working
as run game magic in Denver than in Houston. Now
(19:07):
it's Clint using that same outside zone scheme the great success.
And he's got his dad's old offensive assistant in Rick Dennison,
who's going to help the running game go in Seattle.
And you know that line was always a problem last
year for Seattle. First round pick grays Abel looks like
he's going to be an instant like Pro Bowl type guy.
His preseason tape was incredible. He's just a furniture mover
(19:29):
in the running game. So I love Seattle in the
two and a half points, Matt, I think Seattle wins outright.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Ooh, how about that home look divisional teams right now,
taking home dogs and divisional games early in seasons has
been very profitable, So I like it my second one,
and this is my team, Raiders catching three on the
road against the Patriots. I think everyone is sleeping a
little bit on what the Raiders are going to look like,
in particular early in the season, when they're gonna have
(19:57):
their offensive line healthy and they're gonna have ass gingenty
without having a lot of tread on the tires right
out of the gate. They have a comparable quarterback in
Geno Smith, and everyone is in love with the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
I like the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
I'm not in love with them the same way that
everybody else is because I don't know how quickly Josh
mcdaniels's offense is going to be picked up upon by
Drake May and look, I hope that it's awesome. I mean,
help is quick, but the amount of money that's being
met on the over and the fact that people are
thinking out of the gate, the Patriots are going to
blow the doors off the Raiders. Like, this is not
(20:32):
a mid season trip for a West Coast team going east.
This is the first game of the year, so this
is plenty of you know, fresh legs and get into
your routine. And Pete Carroll is a really good coach.
I like Mike vrabel A lot. I think it's gonna
be really good long term. But out of the gate,
I got big questions about what the Patriots are gonna
(20:52):
look like here, and everyone just thinks that they're gonna
win ten games and this is an automatic w against
the Raiders. I get three points, the Raiders might win
the game outright, and the Patriots are going to be
left going what just happened?
Speaker 1 (21:05):
How do you feel about the Raiders of the Patriots? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Because it's Week one, are you less concerned about the
West Coast team going early for an early start game? Yeah, yes,
Like I would not want to make that bet in
Week eight. Agree, But it's probably not going to be
that big a factor. You figure they're going to be
in town a couple of days early and acclimated the
time change, so it's.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
A peak care revenge game.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
I mean, he's going back to he he hates the Patriots,
the Patriots hates him. There's just so much bad blood here.
I mean, he's his team's going to be ready. I mean,
there's no debate in my mind. The Raiders are coming
into Foxborough focused.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Yeah, I'm with you, Like the Raiders are a live
dog and their personnel is not bad. Like I don't
think their secondary is great, but you know, Ken Drake
May and just a kind of a SOS group of
pass catchers take advantage. I don't know, so I getting three.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Yeah, I kind of like that beat number three play
for you this.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
Oh, it's going to be another under, Matt. It's going
to be Giants Commanders under forty five and a half.
And for me not to want to bet the under
in a Week one game with a total of forty
five or higher, it has to be a couple of
good offenses and a couple of less than stellar defenses,
or maybe just a couple of great offenses. Like I'm
not I'm not interested in betting the under and Ravens
(22:21):
bills for instance, But Giants commanders forty five and a
half seems way too steep for any game involving the
Giants this year. Who I think could be an under machine.
They were the second lowest scoring team in the league
last year. Only the Browns scored fewer points. Their Week
one quarterback is Russell Wilson, who is clearly passed his
(22:42):
Sell by date. The Giants defense looks pretty imposing. I
mean they can come in opposing quarterbacks with Dexter Lawrence,
Brian Burns, Kevon Thibodeau and rookie Studd Abdul Carter like.
That's a pretty fearsome pass rush right there. And no
disrespect to jayde Daniels, who's terrific, but the Giants defense
is legitimately scary.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Now.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
I don't know if this game gets to forty let
alone to forty six, So under forty five and a
half looks real good to me.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Now I'm the Giant hater here, so I'm on the
under five and a half wins for the Giants this year.
But my handicap on that fits right back into what
you're talking about. I do think their defense is going
to keep them in football games. I don't like their
offense at all. You can tell me about Mileague neighbors
all you want, but I just don't think the Giants
have an offense or a quarterback worth really being afraid of.
(23:31):
It could be thirteen to ten. I think most of
the games this year are going to look like that
for the Giants, low scoring, rock fight type football, and
then maybe later in the year they'll start to get
more loose and more developing of younger players on offense.
But I'm with you, I think this game is a
dead under just because I don't think the Giants are
going to score and I don't think the Giants give
(23:52):
up many points. Are you high on the Giants in
the regular season from a win total perspective? Do you
think they over five and a half?
Speaker 4 (24:00):
No?
Speaker 2 (24:00):
No?
Speaker 3 (24:01):
And their early season schedule is murderous, which is going
to give them the whole schedules murder Yeah, which gives
them the perfect excuse to, you know, pull the plate.
Jason Russell Wilson play Jackson Dart late in the season,
just kind of audition him, and like, I don't expect
Dart to be able to win a lot of games,
So I'm with you, Like, I don't have high hopes
for the team, but I do think they're gonna be
(24:22):
in a lot of rock fights with this defense. Like
the defense is pretty fearsome.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Yeah, my final one, I'm going to do it, and
I'm gonna watch this number and if it goes to six,
I'm gonna take it and I'm gonna tease it.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
But after two straight years of the.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Bengals losing on the week the first week of the
season and last year taking out everyone survivor pick and
will do some recommendations for that here in a second,
I'm gonna lay the five and a half or the
six with the Bengals on the road against the Browns
because the entire preseason has been focused on this football game.
(24:58):
They want to end the narrative. They want to get
out there and put up a ton of points. And
I think the Browns are going to be god awful
and I don't think they want to win. I don't
think they're trying to win. Whether it's for Arch Manning
or somebody else. The Browns are fielding a team that
just isn't respectable on both sides of the football. I'll
lay the five and a half points on the Bengals.
(25:18):
Will you follow me? Will you come with me on
this boat, Pat, because we're gonna be alone with some
people because they've been the darlings of the upset world
every week.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
One here's where I'm gonna have to push your boat
out to see and waved you from a shore. That
I just I don't know if I have enough trust
in the Bengals defense, even against a really bad offense
like after I'm kind of haunted by what we saw
in that preseason game against the Washington Commanders, where like
every Commander running back who touched the ball was breaking
(25:47):
off huge gains against the Bengals what I think was
mostly their first team defense at the time.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
So it's just kind of terrified. Do I think Joe
Burrow is going to pick his teeth with the Browns defense?
Probably unless we get some sort of hillacious weather in Cleveland,
and always possible we get the wind tunnel effect there
and the passing game doesn't work.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
So I've just.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
If it was closer to a field goal, I could
maybe go with you there. But it's what do you say,
is it five or five and a half.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
It's five and a half right now and climbing it's
going up. Yeah, it's not going down.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
It's going up, right If you're going to get the
Bengals like now, it's the time to get them. But
I think this one might be a stay away from me.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I think the Bengals in a big way finally get
that monkey off their back. Guys, we talked a lot
about highlighting edges already on this show. You can do
that with betting systems. That is something you can find
on the Betting pros app. Our system tool is designed
to help you find winning strategies to make smarter bets.
You can customize your betting system by sport, by bet type,
(26:48):
and time frame to find the best opportunities. Using real
time data and expert analysis, track the performance of different
betting systems over time and optimize your opportunities to succeed.
Download the Betting pros app today or go to bettingpros
dot com slash systems to elevate your betting strategies and
start making smarter bets, survivor contests, picks, and strategies. Pat,
(27:13):
I'm in a couple. I know you're in a couple.
Let's talk about it. Everyone in their mother Everyone is
going to be fading the Saints all year.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Factor fiction fact in fact, I mean the idea of
taking the Cardinals as a road team and a survivor pool.
I mean, that's counterintuitive to everything we think about survivor pools,
and yet people are going to do it against the
New Orleans Saints in Week one. I personally don't have
the guts to do it, but I think that is
(27:45):
like the bronze medalist pick for me when I'm looking
at survivor pool possibilities in week one.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
Do you have rules about survivor picks? Because I have rules.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
I mean, I generally generally don't like takeing a road
team at any point.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
I'll take road teams. I will never pick a game
involving a divisional rival.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Yes avoided.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
I will.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
I will never, ever, ever ever unless I have to
and I have no choice and nothing is left but
a divisional game. I just I start the schedule by
going through in Dallas and Philly cross it off. You
just go through Chiefs and Chargers cross it off, like
they're not even possible conversations each week for me when
it comes to divisional games, because they are wonky and
(28:30):
they do not go the way that you think they're
gonna go.
Speaker 3 (28:33):
Yeah, so Dallas Philly is the one where, like my
I'm generally with you on that, Okay, but I just wonder, like,
has the Micah Parson's trade coming so soon before the
Seaton was? Was that like a morale wrecker for the Cowboys?
And I just you know, I I don't know if
the Eagles are going to lay an egg on Banner Night,
(28:56):
you know what I mean. So that definitely one of
the one of the games I'm looking at.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
This week, divisional game. I can't do it. Secondly, to
your point, road big road favorites, be really wary, you know,
be be real wary of a seven and a half
point line, eight point line for a team going on
the road. It's it's the level of disrespect and the
fact that players take their foot off their gas and
they think it's going to be an easy w and
(29:22):
it's not.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
So I'm often very very worried about that.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
And then revenge spots like I don't like if there's
a story like Pete Carroll going back to New England
for instance. Okay, those types of angles, whether it's factor fiction,
whether it's real or not, I tend to go and
look for something else because I don't want to get
bit and get knocked out Because somehow a coach was
able to rally and get his troops to go up
and storm the mountain just one time. It's only one game.
(29:48):
If for wrong, once we're dead in Survivor. So I
tend to look around, so you look at Dallas my
number one. The only play that I will make. I
think I'm putting everything, every single Survivor contest I've got
is on the Denver Broncos at home against the tennseee Titans.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
It's a home team. It's a seven to a point spread.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
It's so similar to the Patriots on the road last
year up against the Bengals. Like the scenario. The numbers
are the same, the handicaps the same. But I don't
think Sean Payton gets beat the same way that Zach
Taylor got beat last year. I like Denver to win,
how about you?
Speaker 4 (30:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (30:29):
And having rookie quarterback cam Ward sort of get thrown
to the Wolves in his first game at Mile High.
At Mile High against this defense that can bring the
pass rush from so many different positions and then has
just an ice cold secondary. I mean, the Titans defense
could be pretty decent with Jeffrey Simmons leading the way upfront,
(30:51):
and the offensive line should be better and healthier you know,
and what if cam Ward is good right away? So
I've been trying to like look at reverse engineering this
and figuring out how this could go wrong. But man,
like this does look like a pretty good percentage play here,
Like it's it would be really hard to see the
(31:13):
Titans going in and winning this game.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Anything else I like Denver, you look at Dallas, anything
else you like from a survivor perspective.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Yeah, I mean you mentioned the Bengals as one possibility,
but I know a lot of people got burned by
them last year.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
You got Coohonis, you got stones if you if you
picked the Bengals in Week one last year and lost,
if you go back to the well in particular, if
you're in a high stake survivor pool, you got to
I'm gonna tip my cap, right or wrong. I mean,
you are a gambler if you picked the Bengals.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
Yeah, So, I mean I know a lot of what
a lot of people like. If you don't like picking
division games. I get it. If that is your policy,
I understand it. It's generally good policy, and I do
think a lot of people will want to save the
Eagles for later, looking after their at their schedule like
after Week one road game against the Chiefs, home game
(32:06):
against the Rams, who gave them their toughest battle in
the playoffs, at Tampa Bay home against Denver at the Giants,
at the Vikings home against the Giants in Week eight.
So really none of those games look like layups unless
well until that home game against the Giants in Week eight,
and you know, maybe if you want to take them.
(32:26):
I don't know if you'd ever want to take a
road divisional game against the Giants, So.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
You know, like.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
I do think there's a case for the Eagles right now.
I'm kind of torn between the Eagles and Broncos and
might actually split my three survivor pools on those. So
no Seattle. You were pretty high on the Pingos. There
no Seattle's road or they're a home underdog. So yeah,
(32:56):
I mean I like them, but I don't feel confident
enough to pick them in a survivor.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
I'll give the NFL credit. There are so many divisional
games in week number one. Let's see, there's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
There's eight divisional games, so there's a lot. So like
it makes Week one even more treacherous, and that's why
(33:22):
I think everyone is going to be on Denver. So
if you are a chaos theory person like I am,
I love watching Survivor pools blow up. And that's why
I told everybody all last summer, the Patriots are going
to beat the Bengals. And because everyone was running around
all year long saying take the Bengals, Take the Bengals,
it's a very similar refrain with the Broncos. And I
know I'm running right with the masses, and I could
(33:43):
be running right off the cliff with everybody else. And
so I don't mind your thought of saying, like, well,
everyone's going to be taking the Sunday games, I'll take
the Thursday game and get out of the way, because
the Eagles losing would be somewhat stunning to the Cowboys.
It's just what scares me is if the Cowboys defense,
again with Mett Eberflus, is better than we think, and
(34:04):
then all of a sudden we have Dak throwing a
very good secondary for the Eagles, mind you, but if
Pickens all of a sudden turns into this amazing number
two weapon and the Cowboys are going up that up
and down the field on the on this Eagles defense.
That's my one concern with that game. So none of
these games are easy. It's week one. I mean every
Survivor game is going to be a sweat in a
(34:25):
lot of ways.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
We'll ask you.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
One more, RAMS hosting the Texans. Can you take the
Rams in a Survivor pool? Now what stuffers back?
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Right?
Speaker 3 (34:36):
You can't?
Speaker 1 (34:36):
You can't trust it?
Speaker 3 (34:37):
Yeah, not yet. Just like I the Texans defense is
too good for me to feel comfortable with that game.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
Yeah, it's gonna be. Week one is a minefield.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
This is gonna be fun to do this every week,
but week one it's an absolute mindful just survive in advance.
Like just ess, if you're going to Survivor pool, just
hope you get past week one and week two because
those two weeks last year in the Survivor, in the
Circus Survivor, which this year will be close to twenty
million dollars in the prize pool, last year, thirty five
percent got knocked out in the first week. They had
(35:12):
to go back and off for a rebuy and let
people bought back back in because they had so many
people knocked out in week number one. So if Denver loses,
it's the same scenario, it's gonna knock out thirty forty
percent of the entire field will get knocked out in
week number one. Guys, want to track all your wagers
in one place, check out the Betting Pros Pick Tracker.
It syncs up with your sports books to tally picks
(35:35):
hits in, which misses, and which don't. Plus, it gives
you a live look at what the public is doing,
so you can see real time tracking data to determine
which place to make in which to fade. That's on
our users, by the way, which is kind of neat
you're going to feel for how the Betting Pros users.
It's not like we're going behind the counter of a
sports book. We're actually taking it from our data, our
(35:55):
own people that are using the app, and that's hundreds
of thousands of people who are going to be entering
in these bets. They're going to be able to tell you, guys,
what they're picking to either fade or follow the Betting
Pros community. You can track your picks today with Betting
Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com, slash tracking, or on
the Betting Pros app. All right, let's talk about Sunday
(36:16):
a little bit, and what may be looking as as
a play. Is there a bet that you like, a
bet that you would make right now that you'd lock
in for Sunday, A pick, a prop, a future something
that you'd bet right now.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
One last bet I want to make on a division winner, Matt, Like,
last opportunity before the regular season gets underway. The Seattle Seahawks.
Like I hinted at this earlier, they have the longest
dodts to win the NFC West at five to one
and against you, by the way, Yeah, I bet I
bet the Niners at plus one fifty. Interesting.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Yeah, so I got plus money and the Niners, though,
I was like, you give me plus money at the
Niners gotta take it.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
Yeah, I just I don't know if it's the same
Niners team, Matt, and I think.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
But still McCaffrey though, I mean, you've still got chrisip mcas.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Yeah, it's a running back. Like, I'm not betting a
team to win a division based on a running back. Seattle,
I think just I think they have the best defense
in the division, like with Mike McDonald's who I trust
immensely coordinating it, you know, calling the shots Leonard Williams
and Reid and Dexter Lawrence up front, and these young
(37:21):
up and coming pass rushers and Devon Witherspoon headlining like
one of the more talented secondaries in the league. And
I kind of trust Clint Kubiak to get this offense going.
Like I know, there's still not a lot of love
out there for Sam Donald, even after the even after
the redemptive season he had with the Vikings last year,
but with everything else Seattle has going on, like, I
(37:43):
think Donald will be good enough to get the Seahawks
over the top and at least in contention. And I
like the pot odds here at five to one.
Speaker 2 (37:53):
It is a great numbers play, I'll give you that
in a division that is pretty wide open, with the Rams,
questions at Stafford clearly, the questions around the forty nine ers.
Everyone just thinking they're gonna pick right back up after
one down year, but that defense has still got some
problems and some question marks, and Seattle is a very
tough place to play. I mean, going through Seattle is
really hard. So I just the Sam Darnald thing makes
(38:15):
me worried because I wonder how about Kevin O'Connell, how
much of it was him versus how much of it
was Sam Darnald, So how much was it the offense
and the quarterback whisperer if you will, I mean the
numbers and all the bets on Jj McCarthy. Everyone loves
Jj McCarthy to have a monster year under Koc with
the vikings. I guess we'll see whether it's was it
(38:35):
Donald or was it Koc. We'll find out once we
get to Jj and see what he looks like. So
for me, in terms of extra bets that I would make,
I still would really look at Ashton Genty. If you
haven't gotten involved in the Ashton Genty market yet, I
would really look to do.
Speaker 4 (38:50):
So.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
I bet over seven and a half rushing touchdowns for
Ashton Genty this year, and I think he's going to
vulture a lot of touchdowns from players to get knocked
out at the one or the two, and the Raiders
are going to run the ball like that's just what
they're going to do this year. And I know it's
a rookie, but I don't mind backing rookies that look
like ash Gingenty because I think they have the ability
(39:13):
to break a lot of tackles. And to be highly
effective in the red zone. So ashtonenty over seven a
half touchdowns if you can find it, I think is
a good bet for him.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
And offensive Rookie of the Year isn't a bad.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
Play either with ashtingenty, just because I think of usage,
he's going to be getting a ton of carries. Where
are you on the offensive line for the Raiders. How
big of a concern is that for you?
Speaker 3 (39:35):
Oh, I think it's I think it's adequate. You know,
I don't think it's going to be a problem for genty.
I mean, I just I love the contact balance.
Speaker 2 (39:43):
Man.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
It's like his contact balance is truly extraordinary. Like you
have to just clabber that dude to get him off
his feet. It is not easy, like he does not
want to go down and like I am with you
pretty much slam the any Ashton j over.
Speaker 1 (40:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
I think rushing yards is ten seventy five, which is
not a ton. If he says healthy, he should get that.
So there's a lot of action, gent markets. I think
you guys could could wind up getting into as well.
Anything on Sunday that you think should be bet right
now from a numbers perspective, I mean, any game that
you would fire on right now.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
Yeah, I mean, well, I'm totally with you on the
under on Steelers chats, like I just.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
I would take that now that numbers that that's I'm
with you.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
I'm on the same market where if you can find
thirty nine, take it, because I think might be thirty
six and a half by the time we get to
kick off.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
Yeah, and man, like I'm a Packers fan, but like
Detroit has completely had our number since Dan Campbell has
gotten there. And like for Detroit to you know, they
started as a dog even before the Packers traded for
Micah Parsons, And now Detroit is getting two and a
half points and they're plus one twenty four looking at
(40:56):
DraftKings right now to you know, plus one twenty four
on the money line, Like I'm probably gonna bebut Detroit
on the money line.
Speaker 1 (41:06):
It's gonna be a lot of fun. Week one is here.
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Every single week you're gonna get Pappist Morris and myself,
Matt Parrel's breaking down the NFL lines, the look ahead numbers,
the survivor pick options, and bets that we're going to
be looking to make before we get to the weekend.
Make sure you hit subscribe if you've not done that,
so you're alerted whenever these videos go live all season long.
For pat On Matt, We'll talk to you next week
(41:29):
for Week two of the NFL Early Bets and Survivor Pools.
Speaker 1 (41:33):
Here with Betting Pros.
Speaker 4 (41:35):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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