December 2, 2025 • 34 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite Week 14 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Jaguars +1.5 vs. Colts - 0:01:54
Texans-Chiefs under 42.5 points - 0:05:15
Jets +2.5 vs. Dolphins - 0:08:11
Commanders -1.5 at Vikings - 0:10:15
Bears +6.5 at Packers - 0:13:54
Seahawks -7 at Falcons - 0:19:40
Hard Rock Bets - 0:22:52
Survivor Picks - 0:24:10
BettingPros Premium - 0:27:48
Lock It In Now - 0:28:18
BettingPros Premium - 0:31:50
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
How are you welcome into another early bets, Survivor takes
and things you should fire on right now for Week
fourteen of the NFL. He is Pat, It's Morris. I'm
Matt Perultz. We do this every week, guys, Every Tuesday,
we're here breaking everything down. If you haven't yet subscribe
yet on the Betty Pros YouTube channel, you should absolutely
do that so you know when this podcast drops every
single Tuesday afternoon as we break it down, Pat, what
(00:24):
a wild week we had Thanksgiving? We had Black Friday.
It wiped out every Survivor pool. If people are still
left in watching us for Survivor, you're awesome. You're good
and you should be in the money very soon. So
we thank you for coming back to watch Survivor picks
for today because well, at least here in Vegas, everyone
got trashed on Black Friday and on Thanksgiving, favorites go
(00:45):
oh to four straight up over the holiday.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
How are you? I'm doing well? Good to see Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yeah, I think that Eagles Bears game crushed a lot
of people on Black Friday, and you know, speaking of
the Bears, nice to see you trying to get on
my good sid By wearing the Green Bay Packers hat
coupled with your Jamaica warm up. You know, it kind
of works from a color scheme perspective, but you know,
something tells me that people are not going to be
(01:13):
sitting in the sand drinking a red stripe in frozen
lambeau Field on Sunday against the Bears, where you know,
we just got about a foot of snow here in
like Chicago, Wisconsin over the last about eight ten inches Saturday,
another little round of snow yesterday. Yeah, it already feels
like winter up here. So Bears, Packers, snowy conditions, It
(01:37):
just feels.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Right, all right.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Talking about three games that each of us want to
fire on, and then we'll do a locket in game
at the end as well, something you should fire on
from a number perspective for the number of moves. But
for this week, what is your number one play? What
do you want to bet on right now here on Tuesday?
Speaker 4 (01:52):
For Week fourteen?
Speaker 3 (01:53):
I want to bet the Jaguars catching one and a
half points at home from the Colts. I'm still not
in entirely sure what to think about the eight and
four Jaguars, Matt, but they seem more legitimate now than
they did when they were getting out to a four
and one start and living off a huge unsustainable turnover differential.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
But let's take a.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Quick look at the jaguars last three games. They absolutely
smoked the Chargers thirty five to six in Jacksonville. They
went on the road and showed some moxie in pulling
out a twenty seven to twenty four overtime win in
Arizona against the Cardinals team that's been pretty feisty ever
since Jacoby Brissett took over a quarterback, and then this
past weekend they were very business like in winning a
(02:36):
road game against the Titans twenty five to three. Had
a bad opponent handled them easily. So, by no means
do I think the Jaguars are a great team, But
I think they're slowly but surely becoming a pretty good
team under Liam Cohen. The Colts meanwhile, one in three
over their last four games. The only win was an
overtime against the Falcons in Berlin. That was the only
(02:57):
time they scored more than twenty points during this four
game slump.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
And Daniel Jones.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Is playing with a fracture in his fibulla and looks
like he can't move around very well. So the Colts
still have Jonathan Taylor. But the Jaguars are really tough
against the run. Over their last seven games, they've held
opponents to an average it's seventy one point four rushing
yards and only one of those seven opponents had more
than ninety rushing yards. So the Jacksonville rundy is pretty legit.
And on defense, the Colts have given up twenty or
(03:25):
more points in each of their last four and they
just lost sauce Gard near to a calf injury. So
I really like the Jaguars as a home dog.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
I love this play.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
This will be a bet that I will make on
Sunday or Thursday or some point during the week. Everything
you said I agree with the Jaguars, but it's more
of a fade on the Colts. It's Shane Steichen in December.
Historically speaking, Shane Steichen in December is an absolute fade.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
And Daniel Jones, I completely agree with you.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
His weapon with his legs, his ability to pick up
first downs in the early part of the year was
so big, because that's why I really think he was
able to handle the pressure. He was the best quarterback
through ten weeks against pressure. If you blitzed him, he
was either picking up the first down with his legs,
excuse me, or he was throwing the ball accurately to
(04:18):
a wide receiver corps that was on fire. This team
can't move the football right now. This team is having
a hard time scoring right now. And it's December and
it's a fading time for the Colts. I am one
hundred percent with you on the Jaguars. I'm gonna say this.
I think that they go off as a favorite. I'm
not sure this number is gonna hold. I think one
(04:38):
people wake up and start realizing what the number is
going Wait, whoa, whoa. Hold on a second, I'm getting
point with the Jaguars. Give me Jacksonville plus the points.
I think it's a really good play.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
I debated whether to make this the locket and now
pick right. This is one I'm not gonna wait to bat.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I think you should bet it. If you have a
you have your book or your books. If you have
a plus points for Jacksonville, I would take it. I
don't think you need it. I think you bet money line.
I think the Jaguars win the game outright, but sometimes
it's safe to have the security blanket of taking the
points just in case something funky happens in a divisional game,
which they tend to do for me. I'm gonna go
(05:16):
to Sunday night and I'm gonna look at the Houston
Texans and the Casey Chiefs and play the under forty
two and a half. Much like you, this number is
going to move. I think this number is going to
close either forty or below. I think we're gonna see
a lot of money come in here. I don't know
how the Chiefs are going to score against right now,
the hottest defense in the NFL and the team that
(05:39):
nobody wants to make the playoffs. You don't want to
play the Houston Texans. The Patriots don't, the Broncos don't.
Nobody wants to play the Houston Texans because of how
ferocious that defense has been playing. And while I know CJ.
Stroud has struggled, it's why I like the under. But
in the postseason we'll see what they look like from
an offensive standpoint. But up against the chief team with
(06:00):
their backs against the wall, in a game they absolutely
have to have. I'm assuming that defense is going to
put their foot down and say, Okay, no one's scoring
on our watch. I like the under forty two and
a half Texans Chiefs here on Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
I'm with you on this.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
The Texans have had their last three games play under
forty points and for their last five. It's the best
defense in the NFL. Matt like Will Anderson is. I
know Miles Garrett is getting the heavy attention and the
runaway favorite to be Defensive Player of the Year, but man,
Will Anderson is so good. That guy is just and
(06:36):
then you've got daneil Hunter on the other side of him.
I mean, it's just unfair to quarterbacks. I mean, these
guys terrorize opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs can't really run the
ball effectively. They don't have much of a deep passing game.
It's all just intermediate dink and dunk their way down
the field. And that's going to be really hard to
do against the Houston Texans. And meanwhile, the Texans, they've
(06:59):
they've got offensive problems of their own.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Their offensive line's been a little bit better lately.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
It's not the disaster it was early in the season,
but they have trouble running the ball. They have trouble
making big plays in the pass a game, So throwing
some probably pretty inhospitable weather in Kansas City at night, yea,
And yeah, I like the under a lot here.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
And look, the Chiefs might win the game.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Okay, and they win the game like thirteen to seven,
but I still think the Texans have a huge chance
here to end the season.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
For the Chiefs. They lose this game, I think it's over.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
And so I do.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Expect I mean, Andy Reid's saying some really wild stuff
about what the offense is going to look like and
what he's gonna tickle and whatever else. We'll see what
they do on offense. But I do expect the Chiefs
to throw the kitchen sink at the Texans, and I
could lead to turnovers. That's my one little worry about that.
But I think that has more to do with who
wins the game than the high scoring game. To go
(07:57):
over forty two and a half points, But again, that
number is going to move. So if you are listening
to this on Tuesday afternoon and you see a number
at forty two and a half, I would take it
because I don't think that number is going to be
there for long.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
That number two for you, Pat, Where are you going? Jets?
Plus two and a half at home against the Dolphins?
Love it?
Speaker 3 (08:15):
And yeah, the Jets are three and two in their
last five games, and granted they have beaten some pretty
poor teams. But this this is not a talented Jets roster.
But the Jets are playing hard under Aaron Glenn. They
have a little hidden edge in special teams. They rank
number one in the league in special teams.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Dvoa.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
The Dolphins defense has been playing really well and Devon
a Chan has been doing the his best to just
carry this Miami offense.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
But Matt, how do you feel.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
About a team quarterback by Tua toungua Iiloa being favored
in a road game when the game time temperature is
likely to be around forty degrees zero?
Speaker 1 (08:53):
No, yeah, exactly. I mean here's the thing too, to
back you up, the pros.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
As we're talking here, we tape this on Tuesday morning,
it drops Tuesday afternoon. The pros are betting the Dolphins.
It's now three as we're talking, the number has moved
to three. This is great. Okay, I believe this is
a headfake. I don't believe this is a real move.
I think this is just take what the books will
give you. Take the two and a half points, get
it to three, and then the real money will come
(09:17):
in behind it. On the Jets plus three, same number
was last week at Home plus three. I was all
over it. It'll be the same thing this week Jets
plus three. I'm with you, and that was my choice.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Do I take this, Do I take the two and
a half or do I take the money line at
my plus one oh five? And if it's if you're
seeing it at three in some spots, then I'm just
going to take the three points.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, hundred sent take the three. It's just waight take three.
I mean literally, as we're talking, the boards lighting up.
So it's just it's it's the morning of vandos at
three circles, at three super Books, at three South Points,
at three ESPN.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Bet now you know whatever I want to call it.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
The score bet is at three.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
So yeah, I mean it's it's everyone's going to be
at three by the end of Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday evening,
I think the whole world will be at three. And
then I think when the when the limits open up
on Thursday and Friday, I do think you're gonna see
people coming in and take the Take the Jets at
plus three's a good play. Yeah, I agree for my
second play coming up here, and I you know, I
bounced around with a lot of these and I kind
(10:19):
of thought about what I wanted to do with this.
I'm gonna take the Commanders and I'm gonna lay the
one and a half, assuming that Jade Daniels is playing. Okay,
I need Jane Daniels playing. It looks like he's going
to play, and if he does play, I think you
will see. I mean, I think Washington might wind up
going off as the as the favorite here. Circa's gone
(10:40):
to a pick so as the super book. So is
the South Point hard Rock bet actually flipped. They're at
miss one now for Washington, so the favorite. The Commanders
are favored now they were plus one and a half.
I'm sorry the Vikings are done like that. That that's it.
I'm just I'm out. I think the Commanders aren't playing
for much, but they're playing a lot harder and getting
Jade Daniels back I think is a huge deal for
(11:01):
this team, a big pick me up spot for this
team to have him out there in a Dome environment.
I know the Vikings don't lose at home all that often,
but my gosh, has this team fallen apart JJ McCarthy
and company.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
They didn't score last.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Week, Pat, and even the defense hasn't been that great, Matt.
I mean, I know the Seahawks barely did anything through
the air.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
They didn't have to. It was such an easy.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Game for them with their defense, and just let the
running game do the heavy lifting on offense.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Normally, I would be wary about.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
Taking anything short of a playoff team going up against
the Vikings in US Bank Stadium because that has traditionally
been a really hard place for visitors to play. But
JJ McCarthy a beating up offensive line. I don't think
they're going to have Aaron Jones for this game, who
re injured his shoulder. So yeah, and if Jaden and Daniels,
(11:55):
and I know a lot of people are probably thinking,
why would the Commanders let Jadeen Daniels play when they're
pretty much out of the playoffs. I don't know if
they've been mathematically eliminated or not, but they're really close
to it. Yeah, But players play, It's what they do.
They get paid a lot of money to play football.
And it's not week seventeen or week eighteen, it's week fourteen.
So if he can play, and by all accounts it
(12:17):
seems like he was really really close to playing in
week thirteen. Yeah, best to grab this now while there's
still some ambiguity about whether he's going to be in uniform.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
I think he's playing. I think the number tells you
he's playing.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
I think the fact that the move came here on
Tuesday on Washington tells me he's playing.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
And so and I would be very surprised.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
I know you could say it was the same thought
like last night with Jackson Dark playing for the Giants,
like like, why are you playing him? I get it
there's danger there, but I think because Dame Daniels is
a young quarterback and he reps a good rep, get
him out there, let him play, let him get back
into the swing of things. And frankly, they lost a
game to a playoff team in the Broncos in overtime
(12:59):
by going for two with you know, let's be frank
if it's Jadon Daniels running that two point play, he
probably pulls that ball down and runs in for a
two point play. That was wide open. It's Marcus Mariota.
He throws the ball and gets spiked into his face
and the game ends. So I think Daniels probably says,
that's me. We win the game.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
And they were going up, yeah, going up against one
of the best defenses in the NFL. The Commanders had
thirty first downs in that game. Yeah, thirty, Like they
actually looked like a professional outfit. And that was with
Marcus Mariota. Excuse me, Mariota and quarterback.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
So bad? Couldn't so bad?
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Yeah, Chris Collins, Yeah, stop, guys, just make ske Mike
and Chris stop.
Speaker 4 (13:43):
Please, we all have to watch you Onceday night.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
Please, just I implore you stop doing what you're doing
with these broadcast pronunciation pronunciations.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Anyways, number three, play for you. Where are we going?
Speaker 3 (13:54):
Let's go to the NFL's oldest rivalry, Matt Bears Packers,
and let me lay it friend on you. This one
is a oh, this is a personal trend. I moved
to Chicago in the spring of nineteen ninety seven as
a young go getter, and I've lived in the city
of Chicago or in the Chicago suburbs for the vast
majority of my adult life. Since moving to Chicago, the
(14:18):
Packers have gone forty three and fourteen against the Bears.
Straight up, Wow, my friends in Wisconsin sometimes ask me
what it's like to live behind enemy lines.
Speaker 1 (14:28):
Honestly, it's been pretty painless.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
Bears fans, I haven't had a whole lot to chirp
about when it comes to the rivalry with the Packers.
So now, these new loop Bears under Ben Johnson, I
know there are a lot of data points that suggest
the Bears are nowhere near as good as their nine
to three record. And the playoffs started today, they'd be
the number one seed in the NFC. There's six games
over five hundred, and yet they're point differential for the
(14:51):
season is only plus six. The Bears ranked nineteenth in
total DVA. They've gone six and one in one score games.
A couple of points about the Bears. First of all,
they've played most of the season without their two best cornerbacks,
Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
Those guys are back now.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
The Bears have also been dealing with a bunch of
injuries at linebacker. It's possible they could get a couple
of those guys back for this game and the Bears
offensive line has been playing so well. These guys are
doing work. Matt Caleb Williams took a league high sixty
eight sacks last year. This year, he's only been sacked
nineteen times in twelve games, nine times in his last
(15:31):
seven games, barely getting sacked once a game. And the
Bears are second in the league in rushing yardage, just
twenty two yards behind the league leading Bills. Since their
Week five by the Bears have averaged one hundred and
seventy nine point six rushing yards per game, and they've
run for at least one hundred and forty yards in
all but two of those eight games. So we know
(15:52):
the Packers tend to play to the level of their opponents.
We've seen them rise to the challenge and beat the
Lions twice. We've seen them lose to the Panthers and
Browns and barely beat the Cardinals. I think the Bears
are pretty legit. They're kind of like the Jaguars in
the NFC, a team that was doing it with smoke
and mirrors and a big turnover differential early in the
(16:12):
year and since they've kind of actually grown into their
shoes a little bit and Matt as a Packers fan
living in Illinois. Pains me to say all of this,
but I gotta call them like I see them. I
think the Packers should be favored by four and a
half or five, not by six and a half. I
think there's betting value on the Bears, but it seems
like betters like the Packers here, So I'm I'm maybe
(16:34):
holding off another day to see if this line runs
up to seven.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
That's going to be your ceiling.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
Yeah, yeah, seven's going to be your ceiling.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
It is.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
But I would take them at six and a half.
If I don't get seven, I'm good with six and
a half.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
I think there's going to be a lot of disagreements
in the market, and that's I think it's going to
keep this number at below seven five and a half
at open. First move was to the Packers to make
go six and a half, and it's pretty much rock
solid sex six and a half across the country, across
the world, so we don't have right now a lot
of discrepancy in the market. I do think you're gonna
(17:09):
see a lot of people arguing on either side all
week long because it's Lambeau.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
Are we dealing.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Are we selling high on the Bears. I'm done fading
the Bears. Okay, I bet against them on Black Friday?
Was that the Eagles or was that the Bears?
Speaker 1 (17:27):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
I don't care. I'm not gonna bet against them. This
is Chicago or nothing for me. I wore this in
solidarity for you to say, here you go, I'm not
betting the Bears yet, but you took it.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
You are.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
So it makes me feel better to tell about telling
you that, Like I'm not trusting Matt Lafleur here late
in the year, another one of these coaches you simply
cannot trust when the weather, when the calendar turns to December,
it's just really hard. I mean, the Bears are nine
and three. I didn't think they'd be nine and three.
I mean, this is the first time since twenty ten
(18:00):
to twenty eleven where both teams have hit this late
in the year with a win percentage of sixty six
percent or higher.
Speaker 4 (18:09):
Like that is that is wild on this?
Speaker 3 (18:11):
So yeah, you don't get many cold weather games where
these means something. I'm thinking back to, you know, the
NFC Championship game with Jay Cutler losing Tom Packers.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
It's been a while, although.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
We are going to get at least a handful of
viewers watching the show Matt and thinking of themselves, You're
gonna bet against Jordan Love during Toyota than are you thinking?
Speaker 2 (18:33):
I mean, look at home, Matt laflor he wins okay,
ten and one straight up in December and on ten
days prep La floor is four and oh straight up
in December and six and one straight up in December
or later. He's just not that great against the number.
He's thirteen ten and one ats in December, so he's
just he wins though, like you talk about just a win,
(18:55):
the Packers winning this game. Yes, I can see the
Packers winning this game covering. I don't know that that's
my issue with this. It's the number at six and
a half being as high as it is. It feels
heavy on Tuesday here today, it feels heavy for the
Packers at.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Home, and that fits how Matt Lafleur likes to play.
I mean, we saw something a little different on Thanksgiving
Day when the Packers were kind of pass heavy against
the Lions. But for the most part, Matt Lafleur sort
of wants to shorten the game and make it go quickly.
I'm not sure that's always the prudent move, but that's
kind of how he likes to coach, and so I
think that explains the discrepancy between his records straight up
(19:36):
at home in December and against the number.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
From my final one, I am going to the Seattle
Seahawks in one of my favorite trend bets of the year.
It's Mike McDonald, it's Eastern time zone, it's Seattle, it's
a dome game in the one o'clock window. Seattle, entering
this week, have won seven games outright in the one
o'clock window, and when you put it, that's a six
(20:00):
and oh straight up. Since the start of last season,
Mike McDonald with the Seahawks on the road is nine
four and one against the number five to two and
one when playing on the East Coast. I don't know
why this team plays better on the East Coast under
Mike McDonald, but whatever he does to get his team ready,
they're actually worse at home under Mike McDonald than they
(20:21):
are on the road. I know the number is heavy,
I know seven is a big number. I don't care
Sam Donald's playing so well as a favorite of six
points or more in the NFL as a starter. Get
this stat he's ten and oh straight up, and he's
eight and two against the spread. When the books think
that Sam Donald and company are going to score and
(20:42):
going to win, they win, they cover. I like this
Seattle team, but on the road on the East Coast
against a team like the Falcons, I love them.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
I'll lay the seven points with Seattle on the road
as a road favorite.
Speaker 3 (20:55):
You have got me interested in this one, Matt. This
was not initially on my radar. I certainly wasn't interested
in betting the Falcons with Kirk Cousins going up against
the Seattle defense. No, that's a pretty epic mismatch, But
it seems like a lot of points for a road favorite,
especially with a team literally going, you know, about as
far as you can to play this game cross country.
(21:18):
That trend is fascinating. Obviously, Mike McDonald is doing something
to make his players view these as business trips and they're.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Having a lot of success.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
So you have me very interested in this because I
do think Seattle is the far superior team here.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
I would love six and a half.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
I just think we're going to I think this number
is probably going to stay at seven all week. Some
books opened up at seven and a half, Some books
open at seven, some books are still at seven and
a half.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Find the seven, Take the seven.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I don't like the hook there, but I do think
Seattle's going to lay a hurting on the Falcons. And
I don't like Kirk Cousins in this offense at all?
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Do you?
Speaker 3 (21:56):
And it doesn't help that the Falcons a couple of
weeks lost, or maybe it was just last week Billy
Bowman their their slot corner tors Achilles. Not what you
want when you have to face JSN.
Speaker 1 (22:09):
Best receiver in the game. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
And does it matter to you if Drake London is
able to play for the Falcons this week?
Speaker 4 (22:16):
Yeah, no, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
I mean it's great for fantasy or prop bets or
the over maybe if you want to go that with
having London available, It doesn't change who I think wins
the game. I think Sam Darnold's going to put up
a big number against it. Look that the Falcons defense
has been opportunistic. But I like this team a lot.
For Seattle. I mean, I have a fourteen to one
ticket on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, and
(22:40):
now it's four to one, so I like it a lot.
As to what this team looks like right now and
going on the road, I don't think bothers them. One
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Speaker 2 (24:13):
If you guys are alive and survivor, bless you because
you've made it this far. And I don't know how
many people are left in your survivor pool, but it
can't be a ton.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
You gotta have a short number.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
It.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
It feels like it's a hard thing to recommend pat
just because we don't know what people have available. But
if they have these teams available, who do you like
to get a w this week?
Speaker 3 (24:36):
I know how you feel about betting divisional games, but
obviously beggars can't be choosers this deep into the season.
So I think I maybe feel best about Buccaneers against
the Saints, even though the Bucks offense hasn't been humming
of late. I think it really helps that they got
Bucky Irving back last week, and I think they're just
(24:56):
think they're just gonna outclass the Saints at home at home.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Yep, yeah, I agree, Yeah, but no mind and yeah,
I mean other plays that you could consider.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
I mean, certainly the Rams going on the road like
they're another one betting a divisional road Yeah.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
Favorite, Yeah, that's a little tough. I do like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
I mean, it's it's same conversation with the Broncos right
against the Raiders.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
It's the same number. You know, it's a big number.
Rams or eight.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Broncos are eight. They're big numbers. But I think the
Cardinals are playing harder than the Raiders are. So I
think if you're going to be inclined to bet a
divisional game with a big road favorite, I would take
the Broncos if you have them available. Most people will
not have Denver the Rams, the Ravens. Like the problem
for anybody to you know, in Survivor is trying to
(25:47):
find which bad team do you have to take to win?
And I think if you haven't taken the Texans, maybe
you roll with the Texans. If you haven't taken a
complete like you know, Jacksonville probably hasn't been on people's.
Speaker 4 (26:02):
Radar screens all that much.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
You could take Jacksonville potentially on that over the Colts.
But no matter who you play this week, you're not
going to be running to the window excited about who
you have.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
What if you're really down to the felt Matt, you've
used up all these teams with winning records. Could you
take the Browns at home against the Titans?
Speaker 2 (26:20):
Yes, yes you can. The question is I don't. I'm
really worried about that locker room in Cleveland. This Shador
Sanders thing is starting to leak. And if the team
wants to play for Dylan Gabriel and they don't want
to play for Ard shidor Sanders, and Dylan Gabriel is
(26:42):
cleared to play if he gets his concussion protocol cleared,
and the coaching staff puts Shador in, I'm nervous.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
That's my only worry about Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
They're not playing for anything, so you give them a
reason not to be excited or motivated or focused.
Speaker 4 (26:59):
That's my worry about that game.
Speaker 1 (27:01):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (27:01):
That said, I do think Chadour is a better quarterback
than Dylan Gabriel has agreed. But yeah, and it's the
other thing.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
I mean.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Even though I mistakenly liked the Browns against the forty
nine ers in part because the weather was going to
be bad and I thought the Browns would be better
cut out for that turnout, the weather wasn't that inclined.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
I teased it and I lost.
Speaker 4 (27:22):
Yeah, I gave the Browns eleven and a half and
I lost, and I.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
You know, barely hit on the under. It just snuck
under thirty five points. And the weather is not supposed
to be that bad this weekend in Cleveland. It's supposed
to be pretty seasonal. I'm not sure if that's a
good thing or bad thing for the Browns. I think
if you're in a pinch, you could take them. That's
that's the one option that most of the remaining survivor
(27:47):
people would probably have available to them. I doubt they've
used the Browns anywhere else to this point.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
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Speaker 4 (28:06):
Create custom betting systems if I'm winning trends in profitable opportunities.
Speaker 2 (28:09):
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for free with your first deposit in wager and one
of our partners sportsbooks loan more at Bettingpros dot com
slash Premium. All right, let's go to a lock it in?
What bet would you make? Right here on a Tuesday
for Week fourteen.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Colts Jaguars under forty eight and a half points. And
we've already talked a lot about this Colts Jaguars game
and how Daniel Jones is playing hurt for the Colts,
and I think the Jaguars run defense is good enough
to at least slow down Jonathan Taylor. Jaguars offense ranks
twenty first in DVA, the Colts defense ranks thirteenth in DVA,
(28:46):
So I don't think Trevor Lawrence is really going to
be lighting up the Colts defense, even though the Colts
are going to be playing without Sauce Gardner. I just
don't see these teams racing up and down the field, Matt,
especially not with Daniel Jones playing in a compromise state
with that fractured I like the under and I want
to pounce on it now while it's so overinflated. But
then again, maybe I should have switched the over under
(29:08):
in this game with the UH with the line on
the Jaguars two and a half, because, as you mentioned,
that's probably going down to.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
For me, I am going to take the Cowboys at
plus three and a half. It's a number that's going
to come down to three if you can find it,
go and search it. The South Point here in Vegas
has a three and a half. There's others as well
that are at three and a half, but it's coming
down opened up at five.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
It's three.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
That feels like that's going to be the number for
Thursday night, Cowboys on the road against the Lions. I
know everyone is saying, you're gonna bet against the Lions
at home in a must win playoff game.
Speaker 4 (29:44):
That's really dangerous.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Look, the Cowboys just beat the Eagles and the Chiefs
in back to back weeks. They are the hottest team
in football. They have the most momentum going into this game.
They have a defense, they have an offense that can
score on anybody. It is a primetime game for Dak Prescott.
I love betting on Dak Prescott in primetime games. This
guy just simply wins when the lights are the brightest.
(30:07):
Dallas has a chance here to really put a lot
of pressure on the Eagles, who play the Chargers on
Monday Night Football. If Dallas wins and a loss comes
from the Eagles, all of a sudden, we got a
chance here. Okay, the Cowboys are five and one against
the spread as underdogs this season.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
They're better as a dog than they are as a favorite.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
Give me the Cowboys plus three and a half on
the road against the Lions on Thursday night.
Speaker 3 (30:33):
The Lions are probably not going to have Aman Ross
Saint Brown, and the Cowboys run defense has quietly been
very good over the last three weeks.
Speaker 4 (30:41):
Maybe Jerry doesn't know what he's doing. I don't know,
Maybe he does.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Who knows, Well, we really have to admit that.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
He just lucked his way into it. He just fell
into this run defense with two amazing trades, and the
Jets were stupid enough to give him a three time
All Pro defensive tackle, so you know, ends up changing everything.
It's amazing when you get good players playing run defense, right,
like all amazing, Like you got amazing run stopping defensive lineman.
It actually helps your defense out and everybody else can
(31:08):
play better. And you know, draw Bland and go back
to playing what he did with a secondary and whatnot,
so we know they can score and this Lions defense,
everyone's gonna run with the narrative of Jared Goff and
Dan Campbell at home, bet the over.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
It's not horrible played about the over.
Speaker 4 (31:24):
I think most people are gonna say bet the over.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
But given the fact that the Lions offense has not
looked like the Lions offense, Like, let's be frankier. This
offense is someone anemic losing at home in their last
game to the Giants.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
It's like, what are we doing? Like this is not good?
Speaker 3 (31:40):
What a fun Thursday night game? I mean, this is
major playoff implications. This is a good old fashioned pro
wrastling loser. Leaves town match because I don't think whoever
loses this game is making the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Agreed, one hundred percent, Completely agree, guys. One more reminder
that you can score six months of Betting Pros Premium
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to Bettingpros dot com Slash Premium. It's week fourteen as
(32:15):
we wrap here, pat what game are you going to
be watching the closest in week fourteen?
Speaker 1 (32:20):
What is your attention? I mean, we just talked about that.
Speaker 3 (32:25):
Lions Cowboys game that is going to be a fascinating one.
I'm really Obviously Jaguars Colts has major playoff implications, so
does Chiefs Texans, and of course Bears Packers is going
to have my full attention because you know they play
each other twice in the next three weeks and those
games are going to decide the NFC North appears for me.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Can Joe Burrow do the Patriots a huge favor Oh,
can Joe Burrow go on the road and beat the
Buffalo Bills and make the game in two weeks in
Fiborough basically irrelevant that the Patriots. It's a hat and
T shirt game already for the Patriots, but if they
were to have a Bills team that's two and a
(33:12):
half games behind them, the Patriots would need to win
that game to win. And some are saying, you know,
beat Cincinnati and let's set it up for the Bills. Patriots.
Pat's already beat the Bills once. Let's dethrone, you know,
Josh Allen. Let's turn the page back, Let's go back
in time. Let's show the Bills the Patriots are still
owning the division and they're gonna own it for a
very long time. So there is some fun narrative with
(33:32):
that game. But if the Bills were to lose to
the Bengals, that game doesn't matter. The Patriots would need
one more win the rest of the way and they
will clinch the AFC East. So I'll be watching can
Joe Burrow do it again? To Josh Allen, because you
know Burrow can't go to the playoffs, but he could
keep the Bills from going to the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (33:51):
And it will be fun to see what kind of
game that is. The total right now is fifty one
and a half points, Matt and for a December game
in Buffalo Hell. But the weather forecast as of now
looks pretty mild and innocuous, so which I like because
I want to see these two teams race up and
down the field.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Should be good. Should be good. He is Pat fitz Morris.
I am Att Perralt. To make sure you guys are
subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. We're back every Tuesday,
breaking down end of the week, Week fifteen coming up next.
Hope to see you guys back here again on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 6 (34:24):
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Speaker 4 (34:38):
Also subscribe to our YouTube
Speaker 6 (34:39):
Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
How are you welcome into another early bets, Survivor takes
and things you should fire on right now for Week
fourteen of the NFL. He is Pat, It's Morris. I'm
Matt Perultz. We do this every week, guys, Every Tuesday,
we're here breaking everything down. If you haven't yet subscribe
yet on the Betty Pros YouTube channel, you should absolutely
do that so you know when this podcast drops every
single Tuesday afternoon as we break it down, Pat, what
(00:24):
a wild week we had Thanksgiving? We had Black Friday.
It wiped out every Survivor pool. If people are still
left in watching us for Survivor, you're awesome. You're good
and you should be in the money very soon. So
we thank you for coming back to watch Survivor picks
for today because well, at least here in Vegas, everyone
got trashed on Black Friday and on Thanksgiving, favorites go
(00:45):
oh to four straight up over the holiday.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
How are you? I'm doing well? Good to see Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yeah, I think that Eagles Bears game crushed a lot
of people on Black Friday, and you know, speaking of
the Bears, nice to see you trying to get on
my good sid By wearing the Green Bay Packers hat
coupled with your Jamaica warm up. You know, it kind
of works from a color scheme perspective, but you know,
something tells me that people are not going to be
(01:13):
sitting in the sand drinking a red stripe in frozen
lambeau Field on Sunday against the Bears, where you know,
we just got about a foot of snow here in
like Chicago, Wisconsin over the last about eight ten inches Saturday,
another little round of snow yesterday. Yeah, it already feels
like winter up here. So Bears, Packers, snowy conditions, It
(01:37):
just feels.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Right, all right.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Talking about three games that each of us want to
fire on, and then we'll do a locket in game
at the end as well, something you should fire on
from a number perspective for the number of moves. But
for this week, what is your number one play? What
do you want to bet on right now here on Tuesday?
Speaker 4 (01:52):
For Week fourteen?
Speaker 3 (01:53):
I want to bet the Jaguars catching one and a
half points at home from the Colts. I'm still not
in entirely sure what to think about the eight and
four Jaguars, Matt, but they seem more legitimate now than
they did when they were getting out to a four
and one start and living off a huge unsustainable turnover differential.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
But let's take a.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Quick look at the jaguars last three games. They absolutely
smoked the Chargers thirty five to six in Jacksonville. They
went on the road and showed some moxie in pulling
out a twenty seven to twenty four overtime win in
Arizona against the Cardinals team that's been pretty feisty ever
since Jacoby Brissett took over a quarterback, and then this
past weekend they were very business like in winning a
(02:36):
road game against the Titans twenty five to three. Had
a bad opponent handled them easily. So, by no means
do I think the Jaguars are a great team, But
I think they're slowly but surely becoming a pretty good
team under Liam Cohen. The Colts meanwhile, one in three
over their last four games. The only win was an
overtime against the Falcons in Berlin. That was the only
(02:57):
time they scored more than twenty points during this four
game slump.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
And Daniel Jones.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Is playing with a fracture in his fibulla and looks
like he can't move around very well. So the Colts
still have Jonathan Taylor. But the Jaguars are really tough
against the run. Over their last seven games, they've held
opponents to an average it's seventy one point four rushing
yards and only one of those seven opponents had more
than ninety rushing yards. So the Jacksonville rundy is pretty legit.
And on defense, the Colts have given up twenty or
(03:25):
more points in each of their last four and they
just lost sauce Gard near to a calf injury. So
I really like the Jaguars as a home dog.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
I love this play.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
This will be a bet that I will make on
Sunday or Thursday or some point during the week. Everything
you said I agree with the Jaguars, but it's more
of a fade on the Colts. It's Shane Steichen in December.
Historically speaking, Shane Steichen in December is an absolute fade.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
And Daniel Jones, I completely agree with you.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
His weapon with his legs, his ability to pick up
first downs in the early part of the year was
so big, because that's why I really think he was
able to handle the pressure. He was the best quarterback
through ten weeks against pressure. If you blitzed him, he
was either picking up the first down with his legs,
excuse me, or he was throwing the ball accurately to
(04:18):
a wide receiver corps that was on fire. This team
can't move the football right now. This team is having
a hard time scoring right now. And it's December and
it's a fading time for the Colts. I am one
hundred percent with you on the Jaguars. I'm gonna say this.
I think that they go off as a favorite. I'm
not sure this number is gonna hold. I think one
(04:38):
people wake up and start realizing what the number is
going Wait, whoa, whoa. Hold on a second, I'm getting
point with the Jaguars. Give me Jacksonville plus the points.
I think it's a really good play.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
I debated whether to make this the locket and now
pick right. This is one I'm not gonna wait to bat.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I think you should bet it. If you have a
you have your book or your books. If you have
a plus points for Jacksonville, I would take it. I
don't think you need it. I think you bet money line.
I think the Jaguars win the game outright, but sometimes
it's safe to have the security blanket of taking the
points just in case something funky happens in a divisional game,
which they tend to do for me. I'm gonna go
(05:16):
to Sunday night and I'm gonna look at the Houston
Texans and the Casey Chiefs and play the under forty
two and a half. Much like you, this number is
going to move. I think this number is going to
close either forty or below. I think we're gonna see
a lot of money come in here. I don't know
how the Chiefs are going to score against right now,
the hottest defense in the NFL and the team that
(05:39):
nobody wants to make the playoffs. You don't want to
play the Houston Texans. The Patriots don't, the Broncos don't.
Nobody wants to play the Houston Texans because of how
ferocious that defense has been playing. And while I know CJ.
Stroud has struggled, it's why I like the under. But
in the postseason we'll see what they look like from
an offensive standpoint. But up against the chief team with
(06:00):
their backs against the wall, in a game they absolutely
have to have. I'm assuming that defense is going to
put their foot down and say, Okay, no one's scoring
on our watch. I like the under forty two and
a half Texans Chiefs here on Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
I'm with you on this.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
The Texans have had their last three games play under
forty points and for their last five. It's the best
defense in the NFL. Matt like Will Anderson is. I
know Miles Garrett is getting the heavy attention and the
runaway favorite to be Defensive Player of the Year, but man,
Will Anderson is so good. That guy is just and
(06:36):
then you've got daneil Hunter on the other side of him.
I mean, it's just unfair to quarterbacks. I mean, these
guys terrorize opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs can't really run the
ball effectively. They don't have much of a deep passing game.
It's all just intermediate dink and dunk their way down
the field. And that's going to be really hard to
do against the Houston Texans. And meanwhile, the Texans, they've
(06:59):
they've got offensive problems of their own.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Their offensive line's been a little bit better lately.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
It's not the disaster it was early in the season,
but they have trouble running the ball. They have trouble
making big plays in the pass a game, So throwing
some probably pretty inhospitable weather in Kansas City at night, yea,
And yeah, I like the under a lot here.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
And look, the Chiefs might win the game.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Okay, and they win the game like thirteen to seven,
but I still think the Texans have a huge chance
here to end the season.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
For the Chiefs. They lose this game, I think it's over.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
And so I do.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Expect I mean, Andy Reid's saying some really wild stuff
about what the offense is going to look like and
what he's gonna tickle and whatever else. We'll see what
they do on offense. But I do expect the Chiefs
to throw the kitchen sink at the Texans, and I
could lead to turnovers. That's my one little worry about that.
But I think that has more to do with who
wins the game than the high scoring game. To go
(07:57):
over forty two and a half points, But again, that
number is going to move. So if you are listening
to this on Tuesday afternoon and you see a number
at forty two and a half, I would take it
because I don't think that number is going to be
there for long.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
That number two for you, Pat, Where are you going? Jets?
Plus two and a half at home against the Dolphins?
Love it?
Speaker 3 (08:15):
And yeah, the Jets are three and two in their
last five games, and granted they have beaten some pretty
poor teams. But this this is not a talented Jets roster.
But the Jets are playing hard under Aaron Glenn. They
have a little hidden edge in special teams. They rank
number one in the league in special teams.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Dvoa.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
The Dolphins defense has been playing really well and Devon
a Chan has been doing the his best to just
carry this Miami offense.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
But Matt, how do you feel.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
About a team quarterback by Tua toungua Iiloa being favored
in a road game when the game time temperature is
likely to be around forty degrees zero?
Speaker 1 (08:53):
No, yeah, exactly. I mean here's the thing too, to
back you up, the pros.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
As we're talking here, we tape this on Tuesday morning,
it drops Tuesday afternoon. The pros are betting the Dolphins.
It's now three as we're talking, the number has moved
to three. This is great. Okay, I believe this is
a headfake. I don't believe this is a real move.
I think this is just take what the books will
give you. Take the two and a half points, get
it to three, and then the real money will come
(09:17):
in behind it. On the Jets plus three, same number
was last week at Home plus three. I was all
over it. It'll be the same thing this week Jets
plus three. I'm with you, and that was my choice.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Do I take this, Do I take the two and
a half or do I take the money line at
my plus one oh five? And if it's if you're
seeing it at three in some spots, then I'm just
going to take the three points.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, hundred sent take the three. It's just waight take three.
I mean literally, as we're talking, the boards lighting up.
So it's just it's it's the morning of vandos at
three circles, at three super Books, at three South Points,
at three ESPN.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Bet now you know whatever I want to call it.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
The score bet is at three.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
So yeah, I mean it's it's everyone's going to be
at three by the end of Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday evening,
I think the whole world will be at three. And
then I think when the when the limits open up
on Thursday and Friday, I do think you're gonna see
people coming in and take the Take the Jets at
plus three's a good play. Yeah, I agree for my
second play coming up here, and I you know, I
bounced around with a lot of these and I kind
(10:19):
of thought about what I wanted to do with this.
I'm gonna take the Commanders and I'm gonna lay the
one and a half, assuming that Jade Daniels is playing. Okay,
I need Jane Daniels playing. It looks like he's going
to play, and if he does play, I think you
will see. I mean, I think Washington might wind up
going off as the as the favorite here. Circa's gone
(10:40):
to a pick so as the super book. So is
the South Point hard Rock bet actually flipped. They're at
miss one now for Washington, so the favorite. The Commanders
are favored now they were plus one and a half.
I'm sorry the Vikings are done like that. That that's it.
I'm just I'm out. I think the Commanders aren't playing
for much, but they're playing a lot harder and getting
Jade Daniels back I think is a huge deal for
(11:01):
this team, a big pick me up spot for this
team to have him out there in a Dome environment.
I know the Vikings don't lose at home all that often,
but my gosh, has this team fallen apart JJ McCarthy
and company.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
They didn't score last.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Week, Pat, and even the defense hasn't been that great, Matt.
I mean, I know the Seahawks barely did anything through
the air.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
They didn't have to. It was such an easy.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Game for them with their defense, and just let the
running game do the heavy lifting on offense.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Normally, I would be wary about.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
Taking anything short of a playoff team going up against
the Vikings in US Bank Stadium because that has traditionally
been a really hard place for visitors to play. But
JJ McCarthy a beating up offensive line. I don't think
they're going to have Aaron Jones for this game, who
re injured his shoulder. So yeah, and if Jaden and Daniels,
(11:55):
and I know a lot of people are probably thinking,
why would the Commanders let Jadeen Daniels play when they're
pretty much out of the playoffs. I don't know if
they've been mathematically eliminated or not, but they're really close
to it. Yeah, But players play, It's what they do.
They get paid a lot of money to play football.
And it's not week seventeen or week eighteen, it's week fourteen.
So if he can play, and by all accounts it
(12:17):
seems like he was really really close to playing in
week thirteen. Yeah, best to grab this now while there's
still some ambiguity about whether he's going to be in uniform.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
I think he's playing. I think the number tells you
he's playing.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
I think the fact that the move came here on
Tuesday on Washington tells me he's playing.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
And so and I would be very surprised.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
I know you could say it was the same thought
like last night with Jackson Dark playing for the Giants,
like like, why are you playing him? I get it
there's danger there, but I think because Dame Daniels is
a young quarterback and he reps a good rep, get
him out there, let him play, let him get back
into the swing of things. And frankly, they lost a
game to a playoff team in the Broncos in overtime
(12:59):
by going for two with you know, let's be frank
if it's Jadon Daniels running that two point play, he
probably pulls that ball down and runs in for a
two point play. That was wide open. It's Marcus Mariota.
He throws the ball and gets spiked into his face
and the game ends. So I think Daniels probably says,
that's me. We win the game.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
And they were going up, yeah, going up against one
of the best defenses in the NFL. The Commanders had
thirty first downs in that game. Yeah, thirty, Like they
actually looked like a professional outfit. And that was with
Marcus Mariota. Excuse me, Mariota and quarterback.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
So bad? Couldn't so bad?
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Yeah, Chris Collins, Yeah, stop, guys, just make ske Mike
and Chris stop.
Speaker 4 (13:43):
Please, we all have to watch you Onceday night.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
Please, just I implore you stop doing what you're doing
with these broadcast pronunciation pronunciations.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Anyways, number three, play for you. Where are we going?
Speaker 3 (13:54):
Let's go to the NFL's oldest rivalry, Matt Bears Packers,
and let me lay it friend on you. This one
is a oh, this is a personal trend. I moved
to Chicago in the spring of nineteen ninety seven as
a young go getter, and I've lived in the city
of Chicago or in the Chicago suburbs for the vast
majority of my adult life. Since moving to Chicago, the
(14:18):
Packers have gone forty three and fourteen against the Bears.
Straight up, Wow, my friends in Wisconsin sometimes ask me
what it's like to live behind enemy lines.
Speaker 1 (14:28):
Honestly, it's been pretty painless.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
Bears fans, I haven't had a whole lot to chirp
about when it comes to the rivalry with the Packers.
So now, these new loop Bears under Ben Johnson, I
know there are a lot of data points that suggest
the Bears are nowhere near as good as their nine
to three record. And the playoffs started today, they'd be
the number one seed in the NFC. There's six games
over five hundred, and yet they're point differential for the
(14:51):
season is only plus six. The Bears ranked nineteenth in
total DVA. They've gone six and one in one score games.
A couple of points about the Bears. First of all,
they've played most of the season without their two best cornerbacks,
Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
Those guys are back now.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
The Bears have also been dealing with a bunch of
injuries at linebacker. It's possible they could get a couple
of those guys back for this game and the Bears
offensive line has been playing so well. These guys are
doing work. Matt Caleb Williams took a league high sixty
eight sacks last year. This year, he's only been sacked
nineteen times in twelve games, nine times in his last
(15:31):
seven games, barely getting sacked once a game. And the
Bears are second in the league in rushing yardage, just
twenty two yards behind the league leading Bills. Since their
Week five by the Bears have averaged one hundred and
seventy nine point six rushing yards per game, and they've
run for at least one hundred and forty yards in
all but two of those eight games. So we know
(15:52):
the Packers tend to play to the level of their opponents.
We've seen them rise to the challenge and beat the
Lions twice. We've seen them lose to the Panthers and
Browns and barely beat the Cardinals. I think the Bears
are pretty legit. They're kind of like the Jaguars in
the NFC, a team that was doing it with smoke
and mirrors and a big turnover differential early in the
(16:12):
year and since they've kind of actually grown into their
shoes a little bit and Matt as a Packers fan
living in Illinois. Pains me to say all of this,
but I gotta call them like I see them. I
think the Packers should be favored by four and a
half or five, not by six and a half. I
think there's betting value on the Bears, but it seems
like betters like the Packers here, So I'm I'm maybe
(16:34):
holding off another day to see if this line runs
up to seven.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
That's going to be your ceiling.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
Yeah, yeah, seven's going to be your ceiling.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
It is.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
But I would take them at six and a half.
If I don't get seven, I'm good with six and
a half.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
I think there's going to be a lot of disagreements
in the market, and that's I think it's going to
keep this number at below seven five and a half
at open. First move was to the Packers to make
go six and a half, and it's pretty much rock
solid sex six and a half across the country, across
the world, so we don't have right now a lot
of discrepancy in the market. I do think you're gonna
(17:09):
see a lot of people arguing on either side all
week long because it's Lambeau.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
Are we dealing.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Are we selling high on the Bears. I'm done fading
the Bears. Okay, I bet against them on Black Friday?
Was that the Eagles or was that the Bears?
Speaker 1 (17:27):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
I don't care. I'm not gonna bet against them. This
is Chicago or nothing for me. I wore this in
solidarity for you to say, here you go, I'm not
betting the Bears yet, but you took it.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
You are.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
So it makes me feel better to tell about telling
you that, Like I'm not trusting Matt Lafleur here late
in the year, another one of these coaches you simply
cannot trust when the weather, when the calendar turns to December,
it's just really hard. I mean, the Bears are nine
and three. I didn't think they'd be nine and three.
I mean, this is the first time since twenty ten
(18:00):
to twenty eleven where both teams have hit this late
in the year with a win percentage of sixty six
percent or higher.
Speaker 4 (18:09):
Like that is that is wild on this?
Speaker 3 (18:11):
So yeah, you don't get many cold weather games where
these means something. I'm thinking back to, you know, the
NFC Championship game with Jay Cutler losing Tom Packers.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
It's been a while, although.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
We are going to get at least a handful of
viewers watching the show Matt and thinking of themselves, You're
gonna bet against Jordan Love during Toyota than are you thinking?
Speaker 2 (18:33):
I mean, look at home, Matt laflor he wins okay,
ten and one straight up in December and on ten
days prep La floor is four and oh straight up
in December and six and one straight up in December
or later. He's just not that great against the number.
He's thirteen ten and one ats in December, so he's
just he wins though, like you talk about just a win,
(18:55):
the Packers winning this game. Yes, I can see the
Packers winning this game covering. I don't know that that's
my issue with this. It's the number at six and
a half being as high as it is. It feels
heavy on Tuesday here today, it feels heavy for the
Packers at.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Home, and that fits how Matt Lafleur likes to play.
I mean, we saw something a little different on Thanksgiving
Day when the Packers were kind of pass heavy against
the Lions. But for the most part, Matt Lafleur sort
of wants to shorten the game and make it go quickly.
I'm not sure that's always the prudent move, but that's
kind of how he likes to coach, and so I
think that explains the discrepancy between his records straight up
(19:36):
at home in December and against the number.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
From my final one, I am going to the Seattle
Seahawks in one of my favorite trend bets of the year.
It's Mike McDonald, it's Eastern time zone, it's Seattle, it's
a dome game in the one o'clock window. Seattle, entering
this week, have won seven games outright in the one
o'clock window, and when you put it, that's a six
(20:00):
and oh straight up. Since the start of last season,
Mike McDonald with the Seahawks on the road is nine
four and one against the number five to two and
one when playing on the East Coast. I don't know
why this team plays better on the East Coast under
Mike McDonald, but whatever he does to get his team ready,
they're actually worse at home under Mike McDonald than they
(20:21):
are on the road. I know the number is heavy,
I know seven is a big number. I don't care
Sam Donald's playing so well as a favorite of six
points or more in the NFL as a starter. Get
this stat he's ten and oh straight up, and he's
eight and two against the spread. When the books think
that Sam Donald and company are going to score and
(20:42):
going to win, they win, they cover. I like this
Seattle team, but on the road on the East Coast
against a team like the Falcons, I love them.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
I'll lay the seven points with Seattle on the road
as a road favorite.
Speaker 3 (20:55):
You have got me interested in this one, Matt. This
was not initially on my radar. I certainly wasn't interested
in betting the Falcons with Kirk Cousins going up against
the Seattle defense. No, that's a pretty epic mismatch, But
it seems like a lot of points for a road favorite,
especially with a team literally going, you know, about as
far as you can to play this game cross country.
(21:18):
That trend is fascinating. Obviously, Mike McDonald is doing something
to make his players view these as business trips and they're.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Having a lot of success.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
So you have me very interested in this because I
do think Seattle is the far superior team here.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
I would love six and a half.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
I just think we're going to I think this number
is probably going to stay at seven all week. Some
books opened up at seven and a half, Some books
open at seven, some books are still at seven and
a half.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Find the seven, Take the seven.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I don't like the hook there, but I do think
Seattle's going to lay a hurting on the Falcons. And
I don't like Kirk Cousins in this offense at all?
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Do you?
Speaker 3 (21:56):
And it doesn't help that the Falcons a couple of
weeks lost, or maybe it was just last week Billy
Bowman their their slot corner tors Achilles. Not what you
want when you have to face JSN.
Speaker 1 (22:09):
Best receiver in the game. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
And does it matter to you if Drake London is
able to play for the Falcons this week?
Speaker 4 (22:16):
Yeah, no, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
I mean it's great for fantasy or prop bets or
the over maybe if you want to go that with
having London available, It doesn't change who I think wins
the game. I think Sam Darnold's going to put up
a big number against it. Look that the Falcons defense
has been opportunistic. But I like this team a lot.
For Seattle. I mean, I have a fourteen to one
ticket on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, and
(22:40):
now it's four to one, so I like it a lot.
As to what this team looks like right now and
going on the road, I don't think bothers them. One
bip guys before we give you the survivor picks. This
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Speaker 2 (24:13):
If you guys are alive and survivor, bless you because
you've made it this far. And I don't know how
many people are left in your survivor pool, but it
can't be a ton.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
You gotta have a short number.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
It.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
It feels like it's a hard thing to recommend pat
just because we don't know what people have available. But
if they have these teams available, who do you like
to get a w this week?
Speaker 3 (24:36):
I know how you feel about betting divisional games, but
obviously beggars can't be choosers this deep into the season.
So I think I maybe feel best about Buccaneers against
the Saints, even though the Bucks offense hasn't been humming
of late. I think it really helps that they got
Bucky Irving back last week, and I think they're just
(24:56):
think they're just gonna outclass the Saints at home at home.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Yep, yeah, I agree, Yeah, but no mind and yeah,
I mean other plays that you could consider.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
I mean, certainly the Rams going on the road like
they're another one betting a divisional road Yeah.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
Favorite, Yeah, that's a little tough. I do like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
I mean, it's it's same conversation with the Broncos right
against the Raiders.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
It's the same number. You know, it's a big number.
Rams or eight.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Broncos are eight. They're big numbers. But I think the
Cardinals are playing harder than the Raiders are. So I
think if you're going to be inclined to bet a
divisional game with a big road favorite, I would take
the Broncos if you have them available. Most people will
not have Denver the Rams, the Ravens. Like the problem
for anybody to you know, in Survivor is trying to
(25:47):
find which bad team do you have to take to win?
And I think if you haven't taken the Texans, maybe
you roll with the Texans. If you haven't taken a
complete like you know, Jacksonville probably hasn't been on people's.
Speaker 4 (26:02):
Radar screens all that much.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
You could take Jacksonville potentially on that over the Colts.
But no matter who you play this week, you're not
going to be running to the window excited about who
you have.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
What if you're really down to the felt Matt, you've
used up all these teams with winning records. Could you
take the Browns at home against the Titans?
Speaker 2 (26:20):
Yes, yes you can. The question is I don't. I'm
really worried about that locker room in Cleveland. This Shador
Sanders thing is starting to leak. And if the team
wants to play for Dylan Gabriel and they don't want
to play for Ard shidor Sanders, and Dylan Gabriel is
(26:42):
cleared to play if he gets his concussion protocol cleared,
and the coaching staff puts Shador in, I'm nervous.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
That's my only worry about Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
They're not playing for anything, so you give them a
reason not to be excited or motivated or focused.
Speaker 4 (26:59):
That's my worry about that game.
Speaker 1 (27:01):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (27:01):
That said, I do think Chadour is a better quarterback
than Dylan Gabriel has agreed. But yeah, and it's the
other thing.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
I mean.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Even though I mistakenly liked the Browns against the forty
nine ers in part because the weather was going to
be bad and I thought the Browns would be better
cut out for that turnout, the weather wasn't that inclined.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
I teased it and I lost.
Speaker 4 (27:22):
Yeah, I gave the Browns eleven and a half and
I lost, and I.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
You know, barely hit on the under. It just snuck
under thirty five points. And the weather is not supposed
to be that bad this weekend in Cleveland. It's supposed
to be pretty seasonal. I'm not sure if that's a
good thing or bad thing for the Browns. I think
if you're in a pinch, you could take them. That's
that's the one option that most of the remaining survivor
(27:47):
people would probably have available to them. I doubt they've
used the Browns anywhere else to this point.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
Guys, track your bets and get line alerts to your
phone by downloading the Betting Broughs app with sportsbooks Sink
automatically track your bets across all major sportsbook in one spot.
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Speaker 4 (28:06):
Create custom betting systems if I'm winning trends in profitable opportunities.
Speaker 2 (28:09):
New users can get six months of Betting Pros Premium
for free with your first deposit in wager and one
of our partners sportsbooks loan more at Bettingpros dot com
slash Premium. All right, let's go to a lock it in?
What bet would you make? Right here on a Tuesday
for Week fourteen.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Colts Jaguars under forty eight and a half points. And
we've already talked a lot about this Colts Jaguars game
and how Daniel Jones is playing hurt for the Colts,
and I think the Jaguars run defense is good enough
to at least slow down Jonathan Taylor. Jaguars offense ranks
twenty first in DVA, the Colts defense ranks thirteenth in DVA,
(28:46):
So I don't think Trevor Lawrence is really going to
be lighting up the Colts defense, even though the Colts
are going to be playing without Sauce Gardner. I just
don't see these teams racing up and down the field, Matt,
especially not with Daniel Jones playing in a compromise state
with that fractured I like the under and I want
to pounce on it now while it's so overinflated. But
then again, maybe I should have switched the over under
(29:08):
in this game with the UH with the line on
the Jaguars two and a half, because, as you mentioned,
that's probably going down to.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
For me, I am going to take the Cowboys at
plus three and a half. It's a number that's going
to come down to three if you can find it,
go and search it. The South Point here in Vegas
has a three and a half. There's others as well
that are at three and a half, but it's coming
down opened up at five.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
It's three.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
That feels like that's going to be the number for
Thursday night, Cowboys on the road against the Lions. I
know everyone is saying, you're gonna bet against the Lions
at home in a must win playoff game.
Speaker 4 (29:44):
That's really dangerous.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Look, the Cowboys just beat the Eagles and the Chiefs
in back to back weeks. They are the hottest team
in football. They have the most momentum going into this game.
They have a defense, they have an offense that can
score on anybody. It is a primetime game for Dak Prescott.
I love betting on Dak Prescott in primetime games. This
guy just simply wins when the lights are the brightest.
(30:07):
Dallas has a chance here to really put a lot
of pressure on the Eagles, who play the Chargers on
Monday Night Football. If Dallas wins and a loss comes
from the Eagles, all of a sudden, we got a
chance here. Okay, the Cowboys are five and one against
the spread as underdogs this season.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
They're better as a dog than they are as a favorite.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
Give me the Cowboys plus three and a half on
the road against the Lions on Thursday night.
Speaker 3 (30:33):
The Lions are probably not going to have Aman Ross
Saint Brown, and the Cowboys run defense has quietly been
very good over the last three weeks.
Speaker 4 (30:41):
Maybe Jerry doesn't know what he's doing. I don't know,
Maybe he does.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Who knows, Well, we really have to admit that.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
He just lucked his way into it. He just fell
into this run defense with two amazing trades, and the
Jets were stupid enough to give him a three time
All Pro defensive tackle, so you know, ends up changing everything.
It's amazing when you get good players playing run defense, right,
like all amazing, Like you got amazing run stopping defensive lineman.
It actually helps your defense out and everybody else can
(31:08):
play better. And you know, draw Bland and go back
to playing what he did with a secondary and whatnot,
so we know they can score and this Lions defense,
everyone's gonna run with the narrative of Jared Goff and
Dan Campbell at home, bet the over.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
It's not horrible played about the over.
Speaker 4 (31:24):
I think most people are gonna say bet the over.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
But given the fact that the Lions offense has not
looked like the Lions offense, Like, let's be frankier. This
offense is someone anemic losing at home in their last
game to the Giants.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
It's like, what are we doing? Like this is not good?
Speaker 3 (31:40):
What a fun Thursday night game? I mean, this is
major playoff implications. This is a good old fashioned pro
wrastling loser. Leaves town match because I don't think whoever
loses this game is making the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Agreed, one hundred percent, Completely agree, guys. One more reminder
that you can score six months of Betting Pros Premium
for free. Just make a deposit and place your wager
at a part in a sportsbook. Premium gives you access
to sharp ai, the betting systems, the prop bet cheat sheet,
and the same game parlay builder, all the tools you
need to bet smarter. Claim your upgrade now by going
to Bettingpros dot com Slash Premium. It's week fourteen as
(32:15):
we wrap here, pat what game are you going to
be watching the closest in week fourteen?
Speaker 1 (32:20):
What is your attention? I mean, we just talked about that.
Speaker 3 (32:25):
Lions Cowboys game that is going to be a fascinating one.
I'm really Obviously Jaguars Colts has major playoff implications, so
does Chiefs Texans, and of course Bears Packers is going
to have my full attention because you know they play
each other twice in the next three weeks and those
games are going to decide the NFC North appears for me.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Can Joe Burrow do the Patriots a huge favor Oh,
can Joe Burrow go on the road and beat the
Buffalo Bills and make the game in two weeks in
Fiborough basically irrelevant that the Patriots. It's a hat and
T shirt game already for the Patriots, but if they
were to have a Bills team that's two and a
(33:12):
half games behind them, the Patriots would need to win
that game to win. And some are saying, you know,
beat Cincinnati and let's set it up for the Bills. Patriots.
Pat's already beat the Bills once. Let's dethrone, you know,
Josh Allen. Let's turn the page back, Let's go back
in time. Let's show the Bills the Patriots are still
owning the division and they're gonna own it for a
very long time. So there is some fun narrative with
(33:32):
that game. But if the Bills were to lose to
the Bengals, that game doesn't matter. The Patriots would need
one more win the rest of the way and they
will clinch the AFC East. So I'll be watching can
Joe Burrow do it again? To Josh Allen, because you
know Burrow can't go to the playoffs, but he could
keep the Bills from going to the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (33:51):
And it will be fun to see what kind of
game that is. The total right now is fifty one
and a half points, Matt and for a December game
in Buffalo Hell. But the weather forecast as of now
looks pretty mild and innocuous, so which I like because
I want to see these two teams race up and
down the field.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Should be good. Should be good. He is Pat fitz Morris.
I am Att Perralt. To make sure you guys are
subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. We're back every Tuesday,
breaking down end of the week, Week fifteen coming up next.
Hope to see you guys back here again on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 6 (34:24):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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Speaker 4 (34:38):
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Speaker 6 (34:39):
Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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My Favorite Murder is a true crime comedy podcast hosted by Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark. Each week, Karen and Georgia share compelling true crimes and hometown stories from friends and listeners. Since MFM launched in January of 2016, Karen and Georgia have shared their lifelong interest in true crime and have covered stories of infamous serial killers like the Night Stalker, mysterious cold cases, captivating cults, incredible survivor stories and important events from history like the Tulsa race massacre of 1921. My Favorite Murder is part of the Exactly Right podcast network that provides a platform for bold, creative voices to bring to life provocative, entertaining and relatable stories for audiences everywhere. The Exactly Right roster of podcasts covers a variety of topics including historic true crime, comedic interviews and news, science, pop culture and more. Podcasts on the network include Buried Bones with Kate Winkler Dawson and Paul Holes, That's Messed Up: An SVU Podcast, This Podcast Will Kill You, Bananas and more.
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