December 9, 2025 • 34 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite Week 15 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Broncos (+2.5) vs. Packers - 0:03:04
Jaguars (-4.5) vs. Jets - 0:06:16
Packers vs. Broncos Under 43.5 - 0:09:45
Chargers (+4.5) at Chiefs - 0:12:55
Colts-Seahawks Under 42.5 - 0:16:55
Seahawks (-13.5) vs. Colts - 0:19:28
Hard Rock Bet - 0:21:52
Survivor Picks - 0:23:06
Lock in the Browns (+7.5) at Bears - 0:27:15
Patriots (+1.5) vs. Bills - 0:28:49
Most surprising outcome? - 0:31:37
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:01):
How are you welcome into a week fifteen breakdown of
the NFL slate here on the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
He is Pat Pis Morrise, Im mapp Peralt.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
We are with you every week every Tuesday, breaking down
the slate. Get three plays from each of us that you,
guys can make a survivor pick and also lock it
in as to what you should betting right now because numbers, well,
they move and frankly this week they can move a lot.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Pat, how are you? This is going to be an
interesting month of football for us.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
A lot of teams trying to make the playoffs to
put some teams also just trying to keep themselves relevant
for a playoff picture.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Yeah, we had some teams with their playoff helped seriously
doused in Week fourteen. So how those teams respond, if
they respond, that's going to be a big storyline for
a Week fifteen.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
How do you handle handicapping?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Because I'm for my three plays, I've got two picks
where I am fading two teams, and I think that
are stunned as to where they are in the playoff conversation,
meaning out of the playoff conversation. How does that handicap
how does that factor into your hand kept going into
a game. If a team is either playing for a
playoff opportunity or maybe is not playing for what they
(01:06):
thought they were going to be playing for.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
It sounds like we might be sympatico on how we
view this. And I am more apt to fade the
teams that sort of had their major aspirations crushed. Then
the teams like the say the Titans and the Browns
who have lost a lot of games, didn't have low expectations. Yes,
now they don't have anything to play for, but those
(01:29):
teams sometimes want to feel good about themselves going into
the offseason and when they're sitting on the beach in
Aruba in a couple of weeks, like they want to
be able to feel good about how they left things
with the season. And you know, there are some other
incentives too, contracts making the roster the following year, so
(01:51):
there is a lot of on the line for these guys.
But I do feel the same way you do about
maybe teams that have just had their dreams shattered.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
It's almost a reverse of preseason, But I think that
factors in a lot in the week seventeen in Week eighteen,
where guys are playing for contracts for next year, and
maybe not even for the team that they're playing for.
They just want to put it on film to say
this is what I've done. I think you're absolutely right
about the Browns, the Titans, the Raiders, teams that have
known for quite a.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
While that they are not going to be in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
But this is where the numbers get out of whack,
where the public just says, oh, they stink, go ahead
and bet against them. And we see the Nines, the Tens,
the eleven point spreads, and some of these teams play hard.
I mean, look at the look at the Browns. I
mean the Browns. If Shad or Sanders keeps on progressing
the way that he is, they're gonna be a difficult
out with that defense. You know, the Raiders is gonna
(02:38):
get fifteen points, sixteen points at some point, and when
they're playing playoff teams. We got align with Seattle in
Indianapolis this week. It's completely at a whack. Like you
have to be a little careful about laying points. I
think as we go forward, because just because you think
it's gonna happen, doesn't mean it's gonna be as big
of a blowout as your mind might be telling you,
So keep that in mind as we go forward over
(03:00):
the next month.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Let's talk about your first play for this week. Where
are you looking?
Speaker 3 (03:04):
I am looking West, Matt, to a game that there's
no shortage of motivation because it's between the two teams
leading their respective conferences, the Packers visiting the Denver Broncos.
So this one is Broncos plus two and a half.
They are home underdogs despite leading the AFC. The Broncos
(03:25):
are eleven to two. They are six and zero at home.
Packers are four to one and one on the road,
but they have not had an easy road win. They
went down to the wire against the Cardinals, the Giants,
the Lions, and they were trailing the Steelers at halftime
before eventually winning by ten. The Packers have been getting
chunk games through the air the last couple of weeks.
That's how they beat the Lions and the Bears. That's
(03:47):
gonna be much harder to do against the Denver defense
that leads the league in sacks by a wide margin.
And I also wonder, Matt, the Packers have had two
big divisional games in a row. It seems weird to
call this a letdown spot when both teams are sitting
number one in their respective conferences fighting for our first
round playoff by but it's it's hard for a team
(04:08):
to come through in big spots three weeks in a
row against high quality opponents.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
So I do feel like this should.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Be more of a pick'em game than Packers minus two
and a half.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
I like the Broncos here.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I think you're right, and I want to watch this
number this week because if if three pops, I'm all
over Denver.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Like two and a half.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
It tells me that they're going to let the pros
dictate which direction it goes. It opened up at one,
it was jumped to two and a half. But I mean,
we haven't seen a ton of line movements so far here.
I mean, if you just look at you know, a book,
you know, you know, let's look at hard rock bet
hard rock bet from from a number perspective.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
It was two, it was two and a half. Now
we're back down to two.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
We've seen some ping ponging going on for this over
the last couple of hours, even here, even today, it
was too early. This morning, you know, at one thirty
in the morning when the guys opened up the you know,
the bets on Tuesday morning, it was two. The first
action that hard Rock bet took was at two and
a half or was that two to move it to
two and a half. So if we get the three,
I like Denver a lot. I don't really understand this
(05:15):
thought because you could say that Denver has a two
game lead on the Chargers, but the Chargers aren't like dead.
I mean, they aren't like the Broncos, can't just coast
like that. I know the Packers need the game more,
but I'm surprised at this number given bo Nix's numbers
at home versus on the road. He is a totally
different quarterback in Denver than he is outside. The defense
(05:39):
plays totally differently in Denver than outside. I'm very surprised
to see a home dog here. I like your play
a lot. I think I think Denver wins the game outright.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
Yeah, I agree, And there might be value to just
betting the money line on this one rather than especially
if it stays at two and a half and does
not get to that three point mark that you're hoping
it will.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Yeah, and I think once we wake up and realize
they're like, oh wait, really, Denver's a home dog, I
think the number might might go away. So this could
be a candidate for a locket in number too that
you want if you want points with the Broncos, to
take it before the public wakes up and realizes, oh wait,
the Broncos are home dogs.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
How's that possible.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
My first play is I'm going to look to the
Jacksonville Jaguars here, and I think if you look at
the big spreads that we have seen over the last
couple of weeks, there's been monster numbers. There's been you know,
this number opened at four and a half way back
when okay, it's been steamed all the way up to
eleven and a half. I'm actually comfortable laying big numbers
(06:37):
this week, and I'm normally not the person to come
in and say lay big numbers. But I don't know
what the Jets are doing at quarterback, and the Jets
are going to have a difficult time scoring against the
Jaguar defense that is going to be motivated. This is
going to be you know, who knows what the weather
will look like. If it's going to be like last
week where it was raining on and off. Is a
difficult play. The Jaguars at nine and four. I I'm
(07:00):
buying in. I'm buying into the Jags. I'm buying into
what they're doing. I think the Jets are done. I
think the Jaguars running attack. I think Trevor Lawrence ETN.
And this defense. Again, this is gonna be my refrain
in another game as well that we'll talk about. I
don't know how the Jets score. And if I don't
how they're gonna score, there's not a point spread. I'm
probably gonna not want to look at. I mean, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen,
(07:23):
I don't care really on this.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
It's a big number.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
And yes, the Jets defense is decent, but there's been
so many injuries and they've traded away so many players
that this is not the same Jet defense that we
have seen. We just saw Miami go up and down
the field on them like they weren't even there at home.
I'll lay whatever points. It's eleven and a half right now,
I'll lay it with the Jags.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
If this had been Tyrod Taylor at quarterbacks for yeah, so,
and even if the number was down at like ten,
I'd actually be interested in taking the points with the
visiting team, Like I just I don't know, Matt. Maybe
I should start trusting the Jaguars. I'm not there yet.
But to your point about the quarterback situation, if it's
(08:05):
Justin Fields at quarterback for the Jets, this plays into
the way the Jaguars play on defense, like they are
really tough against the run, and if you're gonna beat him,
it's gonna be through the air.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
I don't know if Justin Fields can do that.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
He hasn't beaten anyone through the air all year, which
is why Tyrod.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
Taylor was playing quarterback.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
So yeah, I'm as of now, I'm probably gonna lay
off this game.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
But I kind of see it the way you see
it here.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
It's just do I feel comfortable enough laying double digits
with the Jaguars. I'm not sure I do. But if
I was going to play this, I think i'd play
the Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
The books are going to tempt the public to take
dogs this week that this to me looks like a
week in which the books are going to say, all right, fine,
you want to lay a favorite, here's a number.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Let's make you.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
Uncomfortable and you know, to steal a line from my
former co host, he's called an uncomfortable lay. And that's
what this is. Okay, it's not fun to go ahead
and lay eleven and a half, twelve and a half,
thirteen points. But it doesn't matter because the team that
they're playing is completely done and the Jaguars are very
much alive for you know, the division. A wild card
(09:17):
like this is an important game for the Jaguars, maybe
one of the bigger games in recent memory. And if
Lee and Cohen falls in his face, if Trevor Lawrence
gives up all this good will that they just got
from the home win last week, that's a bad sign.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
I'm gonna buy in. I like the first year head coach.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
I like the moxie of these young coaches coming in
and changing the culture. And even Trevor Lawrence is playing
really well at the moment. He struggled in the beginning,
but he has turned the corner. Bet number two for
you for the week where we're.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Going sticking with his Packers Broncos games and game, and
I like under forty three and a half points.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Yeah, that's one.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
We have two of the better defenses in the league.
Squaring off, Broncos are first in the league in sacks,
fifth and pressure rate. Packers are top ten in pressure rate.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
We know Michaeh.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Parsons is gonna make bo Nix's afternoon difficult, and really
the Broncos offense is pretty average. Bo Nix hasn't been
especially good, as you said, Matt, I mean better at
home than on the road. But he's averaging six point
three yards per pass attempt. That's not a very inspiring number.
And four of the Broncos last five games have played
(10:25):
to forty one or fewer points. Now the Packers, on
the other hand, they've scored thirty one and twenty eight
points in their last two games, both very high profile games.
The win over the Lions on Thanksgiving the win over
the Bears in a nationally televised game for the NFC
North lead. I think that's why this total is what
it is, because America has seen Jordan Love in the
(10:46):
Green Bay passing game ball out the last couple of weeks.
But the Packers were hitting on a lot of big
plays in those games, big chunk games through the air.
The lines have allowed the second most passing plays of
twenty or more yards. It's this season, the Bears the
third most. The Broncos, they've a lot of the fifth
fewest completions of twenty or more yards. And oh, by
(11:07):
the way, one of the teams that's allowed fewer big
passing plays than the Broncos the Packers. So you are
not going to see a lot of big chunk plays
through the air in this game. I don't think this
Denver defense is going to let Jordan Love have his way,
and I don't think the Denver offense is going to
fly up and down the field against this Green Bay defense.
So I'll be pretty surprised if this game goes over
(11:30):
forty three and a half points, and it really feels
like more of a seventeen to four K fourteen game.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
To me, I like that play better than your first play.
I think the unders in automatic. I think it's been
unders have been over the last two weeks have been
very profitable. We've seen primetime unders go back to being
how it used to be where primetime unders were very profitable.
The game on Monday Night State Under it should have
gone over, but it was an overtime and then the
pick at the end really iced the under. It was
(11:58):
forty one and a half, a close ended in forty one.
So we've seen a lot of low scoring defensive battles
here over the last couple of weeks. I think this
is right in line with another game that's going to
be in the teams for both teams, not a high
scoring shootout in Denver. Frankly, we haven't seen a shootout
in Denver in a while, Like, we haven't seen games
like that in Denver just because how the Broncos defense
(12:20):
plays and how their offense has been somewhat inept at
really moving the football consistently and even running the ball consistently.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
So I like the under.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Yeah, that Giants Broncos game was the last kind of crazy.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
But that was because of the fourth quarter collapse for
the Giants. That was an under game all the way
unto the fourth quarter. Yeah, because the Broncos did nothing,
and then you know, the Giants became that team now
that we all know, the fourth quarter collapse is on
for the New York Giants, so sitting records for a
number of ten point leads in the fourth quarter that
they blown, that they blew.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
So yeah, that was was an.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Under game until it turned into well, not for my
second bet. And this goes again with kind of a
theme here about teams that I thought that they thought
they were going to be in it and they're not.
I like the Chargers, who are coming off a short week,
off of a emotional, unbelievable overtime victory over the Eagles
(13:12):
in which they were either going to tie that game
or lose that game outright huge pick. That defense turned
the ball over five times, four picks, a fumble recovery.
I think that defense is playing extremely well, and I
do not like the body language out of the case Chiefs,
who are now six and seven, sorry, and have to
(13:33):
look at themselves in the mirror and say what direction
are we going to go? Because this offseason is going
to be the most interesting offseason in Patrick Mahomes's career
thirty one years old. They're going to miss the postseason.
Travis Kelcey, by all accounts, is going to get married
in June and retire and be done. How much longer
(13:55):
does Andy Reid want to coach? This team has got
a lot of holes, This team's got a lot of questions.
They've got a lot of big ticket items like Chris
Jones and Patrick Mahomes, and when you pay your big players,
you don't have the money to pay other players that
need to be on the roster. I like the plus
four and a half Chiefs win maybe, but they do
(14:15):
it's by three. I like the Chargers plus four and
a half, and I could see the winning the game
outright at Arrowhead coming up on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
This was one of the picks that just missed the
cut for me. Matt, Yeah, I feel the same way.
And by all accounts, some of the reporting was that
the Chiefs locker room had a funereal feel to it
after that loss against the Texans on Sunday night, Like
(14:43):
the Chiefs pretty much know it's over, and I think
there are gonna be a lot of big changes. You
mentioned the Travis Kelce thing, and I just I think
the Chiefs need to fundamentally reshape their offense, which just
hasn't worked. And I thought getting Rashi Rice back might
be sort of the the secret, but now it's almost
like too much for she. Rice still just don't have
(15:04):
a running game, and that's a problem because I think
that's where maybe the Chargers are most exploitable. They've been
really tough against the pass this year. So I don't
think Patrick Mahomes is going to have a big day
in the air against the Chargers. And we kind of
saw that with the Chargers against Philly, like they gave
up a few players to the Eagles in the passing
(15:25):
game for the most part, like they caused more problems
for the Philly passing game than they gave up big plays.
So I do the one thing I worry about is that,
you know, the Chargers didn't have a lot of success
through the air in that game.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
I worry about the state of justin.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Mine is the biggest concern, the big problem. Thousand sacks
last night to the Eagles defensive front.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
And Herbert handled the pressure pretty well, Like I don't
know if the hand issue is a problem for him.
He was running around really aggressively.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Rushing last night.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Yeah, so we'll see it. Points might be hard to
come by in this game, but I do think the
Chargers are a good play here, like getting this many
points why against a just morally decimated team like the Chiefs.
And by the way, Matt, the Miami Dolphins have the
(16:20):
same record as the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Six town and one team is jumping up and down
about being six and seven and the other team is
very depressed about being six and seven. There are very
different perspectives of glass half full versus glass half empty.
When it comes to Miami versus Kansas City. One team
is like, all right, we got a shot. Another team
(16:42):
is like, oh my god, what happened to us? We've
fallen apart?
Speaker 1 (16:46):
So yeah, it is.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
It is all about perspective when it comes to the
Chiefs and that record of six and seven for them
and pretty much out of the playoff picture.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Where is your third bet for this week?
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Pet, It's gonna be with the Colts Seahawks under forty
two and a half points. And I had a hard
time deciding whether I like the line more or the
total more in this game. Chose the total. What are
the Colts going to do at quarterback? Daniel Jones tour
his achilles on Sunday. Riley Leonard, who came in in
(17:17):
place of Jones, has some sort of knee issue that
is putting his in doubt.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Yeah, I would say he's not playing.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
I would say Ry Leonard's not going to play in
this game because he's a young quarterback and why risk it?
And by all accounts that knee injury is a bit
more significant, because why are they calling Philip rivers if
they have any shot? I mean, AR fifteen is not
playing okay, right, so forget about Richardson. I don't think
he'll play in a cult uniform ever again, so like goodbye.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
I mean, I think they'd be willing to roll the
dice with him and give him a second chance. But
he does have that orbital bone fracture. This are incident
before a game where he was stretching out with an
elastic band and it snapped back in his face, like
Wiley Coyote, do not get your elastic stretch bans from
the ACME company. Yeah, if the Seahawks get a lead,
(18:10):
and they will in this game, They're going to take
the air out of the ball.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
That's just how they want to play.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
The Seahawks as it is, even in competitive games, like
they have the third lowest pass rate over expected in
the league at minus seven percent, and they are the
only team in the NFL that has had more running
plays than passing plays this year. So I think we
are going to see a game that's thirty to seven,
(18:38):
twenty three to seven, twenty eight to ten, it just
I don't think Seattle is going to push this game
over by themselves. And I don't see the Colts scoring
more than about ten points with a mystery box quarterback.
I mean, are we really going to see Philip Rivers?
Who a friend of mine texting me last night, He's like,
(18:59):
have you seen up Rivers? This guy does not look
game ready, like he's maybe been enjoying retirement.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
So he a grandfather. I'm forty eight, he's forty four.
I'm older than him. He's gonna play in an NFL
football game on a short week? Are you serious? This
is a clown show. I mean, this is a joke.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
Against one of the best defenses in the league, like
a truly fearsome defense. It's not like you're playing the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
And this is my third play. This is my third
play of the week. I don't care what the number is.
They just beat the Vikings twenty six. Nothing name the score.
I mean, I mean the Colts aren't scoring. I mean
they're just not not Again, a Vikings competent offense could
not score against the Seahawks on the road in Seattle.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
I will be stunned if the Colts.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
I don't care if Jonathan Taylor is running the ball
from the wildcat the entire game, they're not going to
score up a kidst So the under is a very
good play. The team total, I don't know what the
book's gonna put the team total at. It's not up
yet for the Colts because my gut, my gut tells
me it's like six and a half, Like the Colts
just aren't gonna score in this game. And Seattle just
went and we talked about it, and it was one
(20:14):
of my plays here last week, and I didn't bet it.
I I this is where good lesson for you guys
who were a little bit new to the gambling space.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I had a phone call with a friend of mine
who I.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Really respect, who is playing in the circum millions, who's
doing pretty well in circum millions, and they stood on
a table for the Falcons, like still on a table,
gave me like a thousand different reasons why to bet
the Falcons, And so I said, all right, I like Seattle,
you like the Falcons. The best play sometimes is the
one you don't make, so I'm gonna get off of it.
So I sat here on Tuesday and said, bet Seattle
(20:46):
bet Seattle, Bet Seattle. Then when it came down to
bet Seattle, I choked. And what did the Seahawks do?
They go and kill the Falcons. They covered the seven
points like it was like it was nothing. I'm not
gonna make that same mistake this week. I'm not gonna
be scared off by the number. I'll lay the thirteen
and a half points Seahawks big over the Colts because
I don't know how a competent offense shows up in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
Yeah, that's funny. You mentioned that about the Seahawks Falcons game.
That was one last bat where I was looking at
my card last Sunday and I'm like, Sarah, any chance
the Falcons are going to hang with Seattle? And I,
you know, and in otherwise pretty bad week, threw some
money on the Seahawks late, and yeah, it mitigated the
damage for Week fourteen.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
I kick it.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
I was watching the game, going, you gotta be kidding me,
like I knew to bet this game, Like why didn't I?
And the in game number was nuts it had run,
so I didn't even bet an end game like it
was I That was a frustration for me on so
many levels, and it just if you feel like you
have a like a good read, just listen to yourself.
Moral of the story is, listen to yourself. Don't let
anybody else influence the bets that you're going to make. Guys,
(21:52):
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Speaker 1 (22:23):
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Speaker 2 (22:24):
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Speaker 5 (22:37):
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and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler
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Speaker 1 (23:06):
If you are alive for Survivor, Bravo.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
I have heard across the country that most these contests
are over given. After what happened on Thanksgiving and what
happened last week in Vegas, the Bucks took out sixty
two percent of the remaining contestants entries for Sorcer Survivor,
which was eighteen point seven million. If you are alive
for a Survivor contest this week, though, Pat, where should
(23:32):
the players go?
Speaker 3 (23:34):
I think we both agree that Seattle looks like one
of the more attractive possibilities. I think number two in
my hierarchy would be the forty nine Ers playing at
home against the Titans with the rest advantage too coming
off the buy. So then the Jaguars. I mean you
mentioned liking the Jaguars. I think they're a reasonable third option,
(23:56):
and then I feel less great about they Could the
Eagles possibly lose to the Raiders at home? Yes, yeah, yes,
that kind of scares me too, and I worry a
little bit.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
The Texans are favored by.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
I think nine and a half at home against the Cardinals.
Like that to the Cardinals have been plucky. I just
the Texans scare me in Survivor pulls because I don't
trust that offense at all. Sure the defense is phenomenal,
but I don't trust that offense. So they'd be pretty
well behind the Seahawks, forty nine Ers, and Jaguars in
(24:31):
my order of preference. But I think the Eagles and
Texans are options too.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Is there anyone go ahead you could do a four
leg moneyline parlay? I think of the big spread getters
this week and feel pretty good about it. I think
I think you know, I don't foresee a major double
digit team losing outright. Maybe they don't cover, but I
think it would be a falling on your face type moment.
(24:55):
If the Texans the Jaguars, like teams are big favorites
at home, can't get it done just to win the
football game, that would be somewhat surprising. I think you're
right to avoid questionable teams like, oh, the Eagles are
gonna pull out of it, right, I don't know. The
Raiders are the worst team in football, so I wouldn't
necessarily take the points, but I wouldn't lay the points
of the Eagles, and I wouldn't take the Eagles money
(25:16):
line either, just because of how poorly that offense is
performing and the Raiders are a dumpster fire. But still
there is I can tell you on the ground here
in Vegas to fallout from that field goal that was kicked.
I can't tell you the last time on the nightly news,
the local five and six o'clock news, that one of
the top stories was the Raiders kicking that field goal
(25:39):
and having all the gambling implications. I've never felt more
like I live in Las Vegas than watching the five
o'clock news, and one of the lead stories is major
fallout from Pete Carroll kicking the field goal at the
end of the game.
Speaker 1 (25:51):
It was like, wait, what, Like where do I live?
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Like?
Speaker 1 (25:53):
This is tremendous living in the right town to have
this happen. But there's some interesting eyeballs on the Raiders
that I think this team will.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
Will come out and play pretty hard this week against
the Eagles and maybe even scare Philadelphia a little bit here.
So I wouldn't have I wouldn't use the Eagles and Survivor,
but I think those are our four very good options
this week. If you are still available, and chances are
you have the Jags left, which is a big one,
and you may have the Texans left as well, depending
(26:20):
on how your your bracket figured out the path you
took for Survivor, you may have the Texans the other ones.
I'd be surprised if you have still available here in
week fifteen, but if you do, I definitely Seattle would
definitely be a team that I would be using for
Survivor against the Colts. Guys, if you have not downloaded
(26:41):
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(27:03):
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dot com slash premium. All right, for a lock it
in pat where are you going for a number you
think might move?
Speaker 3 (27:15):
I'm going to get the Browns plus seven and a
half against the Bears in Chicago, and obviously the seven
and a half that that is the reason I'm dialed
in on this one. And look, we know the Bears
had sort of out kicked their performance with their record,
Like their record far exceeds their you know, net point total,
(27:40):
which is just barely over even like they're plus single digits.
I want to say the Browns offense is more credible
with Shudor Sanders at quarterback. It's less condensed than it
was with Dylan Gabriel. They've got a little bit of
a downfield passing game now with Jerry Judy and Harold Thann.
(28:00):
And the Bears pass defense is not good. We just
saw this in the Green Bay game, not much of
a pass rush. They had gotten their two best cornerbacks
back from injury, Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon. Jalen Johnson
was bad in the Packers game, and Kyler Gordon reinjured
himself and probably isn't gonna play this week. So the
Browns are three to ten, but five of their losses
(28:21):
has been one score games. The Bears are nine to four,
six of their wins have been one score games. And
the weather for this one matt high of eleven degrees
forecast for Chicago on Sunday, with wins of ten to
twenty miles an hour, it is probably going to be
a low scoring, run heavy game. So I like an
underdog getting more than.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
A touchdown here.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
Yeah, I like the under. That game a lot and
dog and under. It's a quarrelat up play. I like
it dogging under and that one for me, I'm gonna
go to the biggest game of the week. Patriots are
catching one and a half points. I don't understand, Like
as a Patriot fan, sure, there's a bit of a
disrespect thing going on here, but a road favorite in
(29:04):
this game for a team off a buy a team
that already beat the Bills, A Bills team that was
lucky to beat the Bengals last week, and if it
wasn't for Joe Burrow throwing two picks in the fourth
quarter of that game, they probably lose to the Bengals
at home. The Bills on the road are a far
different team. They have one home loss this year, that's
(29:27):
to the Patriots. They're three and three on the road,
including some really poor performances away from home. This number,
the Bills may win the game. Okay, and I may
be dead wrong on this, but this is just a
straight numbers play. You're gonna give me a point and
a half for the Patriots at home against a team
they already beat in the biggest game of the year
off a buy now Patriots plus one and a half
(29:50):
simply on a principal play.
Speaker 1 (29:52):
I don't get the number.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
Pat I do think that's the right percentage play, Matt.
Could the Bills win? Absolutely, Like they're a good team,
but they are a little bit of a paper tiger.
This is not as good as Bills team as we've
seen the last couple of years, and especially on the road,
we've seen them look pretty vulnerable. And boy, you know,
the Patriots are going to be pretty pretty geared up
(30:13):
for this one.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Yeah. This is the biggest game in the last five years.
I mean, this is massive. This is a hat and
T shirt game. Patriots haven't had a hat and T
shirt game since Brady.
Speaker 4 (30:23):
And who are you?
Speaker 3 (30:24):
Who are you trusting to get your team up for
a big game? Mike Frabele or McDermott.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
Yeah, so yeah, I think you take the point that
that's going to be gone.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
Okay, I will say this on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
I will be stunned if we go off with the
Bills favored in this game.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
Stunned.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
Like I think the number of moves, I think it
probably closes Patriots minus one when we're all said and done.
Think Patch will be five favored at the end. So
I think you give me plus one and a half. Yeah,
take it, take it now. And maybe that's the books
laying a trap knowing what people are gonna bet, and
they're gonna put out there because they know everyone's gonna
bet to Patriots. So they can't go ahead and and say,
all right, we're not going to you know, let you
get plus points with the bills because the the pros
(31:05):
are going to be on Buffalo and the public to
meet on the Patriots. Fine, but I'm just taking it
on a principal play. Give me the Patriots. I'll buy
my team at plus one and a half. Guys, it's
one more reminder that you can score six months of
Betting Pros Premium for free. Just make a deposit and
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(31:26):
bit cheat sheet, in the same game, parlay builder, all
the tools you need to bet smarter. Claim your upgrade
now at bettingpros dot com Slash Premium. All right, pat
on the way out? Who gets What's what's the story
after week fifteen? What's what's the game that's going to
have your attention that might surprise some people with the outcome?
Speaker 3 (31:48):
What is going to surprise people with the outcome? I
I mean, would it be a shut Like, I don't
think it's going to be surprising if Denver wins that
that game against the pack I'm just I'm shocked that
the Packers are favored in that one. So that's what
that's what my mind is kind of turning to. And
I I'll say that the Dolphins have a pretty good
(32:11):
chance of upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
I think Cleveland beats the Bears. Wow, I think I
think outright Cleland, Cleveland beats the Bears. I think that
all those one score wins, all of that like margin
that was going for the Bears.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
I think end of the year it flips the other way.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
I think I think the law of averages kick in
here for Chicago.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
Yeah, and the Bears win.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
I like that one and the Dolphins Steelers one. And
I'm not sure if I can totally buy this yet,
but the way the Dolphins have been playing with defense
and the running game lately, the only thing that gave
me pause is I don't know if they're gonna have
Devon ah Chan or not. Right otherwise, like the Steelers
might be able to out stealer the Steelers, or the
Dolphins might be about Steeler, the Steelers and they's just
(32:54):
been run and play defense.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
Steelers are gonna need it, and then I'll win that game.
They're gonna have a difficult time. Ravens should wind up
winning this week, and then the Ravens have a chance
to go and they beat Cincinnati, beat the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Baltimore's a two and a half point favorite there. If
they win that game and the Steelers lose to Miami,
we're back to being tied at the top of the division.
(33:20):
And then the Bengals really kicked them Sales for losing
to the Bills because they had a shot to win
the division. If that were to play out, the Bengals
would be right there. This game would be huge for them,
but because that loss last week, that was really costly
for them. He is bet fist Morris, I am at Paralti.
We'll talk to you guys coming up next week. If
you haven't subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, please
(33:40):
do so hit subscribe, leave some comments on what game
you think is going to be shocking for Week fifteen,
and then Pat and i We've back coming up next
week to recap it all here on the Betting Pros
YouTube channel.
Speaker 6 (33:49):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:01):
How are you welcome into a week fifteen breakdown of
the NFL slate here on the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
He is Pat Pis Morrise, Im mapp Peralt.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
We are with you every week every Tuesday, breaking down
the slate. Get three plays from each of us that you,
guys can make a survivor pick and also lock it
in as to what you should betting right now because numbers, well,
they move and frankly this week they can move a lot.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Pat, how are you? This is going to be an
interesting month of football for us.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
A lot of teams trying to make the playoffs to
put some teams also just trying to keep themselves relevant
for a playoff picture.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Yeah, we had some teams with their playoff helped seriously
doused in Week fourteen. So how those teams respond, if
they respond, that's going to be a big storyline for
a Week fifteen.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
How do you handle handicapping?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Because I'm for my three plays, I've got two picks
where I am fading two teams, and I think that
are stunned as to where they are in the playoff conversation,
meaning out of the playoff conversation. How does that handicap
how does that factor into your hand kept going into
a game. If a team is either playing for a
playoff opportunity or maybe is not playing for what they
(01:06):
thought they were going to be playing for.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
It sounds like we might be sympatico on how we
view this. And I am more apt to fade the
teams that sort of had their major aspirations crushed. Then
the teams like the say the Titans and the Browns
who have lost a lot of games, didn't have low expectations. Yes,
now they don't have anything to play for, but those
(01:29):
teams sometimes want to feel good about themselves going into
the offseason and when they're sitting on the beach in
Aruba in a couple of weeks, like they want to
be able to feel good about how they left things
with the season. And you know, there are some other
incentives too, contracts making the roster the following year, so
(01:51):
there is a lot of on the line for these guys.
But I do feel the same way you do about
maybe teams that have just had their dreams shattered.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
It's almost a reverse of preseason, But I think that
factors in a lot in the week seventeen in Week eighteen,
where guys are playing for contracts for next year, and
maybe not even for the team that they're playing for.
They just want to put it on film to say
this is what I've done. I think you're absolutely right
about the Browns, the Titans, the Raiders, teams that have
known for quite a.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
While that they are not going to be in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
But this is where the numbers get out of whack,
where the public just says, oh, they stink, go ahead
and bet against them. And we see the Nines, the Tens,
the eleven point spreads, and some of these teams play hard.
I mean, look at the look at the Browns. I
mean the Browns. If Shad or Sanders keeps on progressing
the way that he is, they're gonna be a difficult
out with that defense. You know, the Raiders is gonna
(02:38):
get fifteen points, sixteen points at some point, and when
they're playing playoff teams. We got align with Seattle in
Indianapolis this week. It's completely at a whack. Like you
have to be a little careful about laying points. I
think as we go forward, because just because you think
it's gonna happen, doesn't mean it's gonna be as big
of a blowout as your mind might be telling you,
So keep that in mind as we go forward over
(03:00):
the next month.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Let's talk about your first play for this week. Where
are you looking?
Speaker 3 (03:04):
I am looking West, Matt, to a game that there's
no shortage of motivation because it's between the two teams
leading their respective conferences, the Packers visiting the Denver Broncos.
So this one is Broncos plus two and a half.
They are home underdogs despite leading the AFC. The Broncos
(03:25):
are eleven to two. They are six and zero at home.
Packers are four to one and one on the road,
but they have not had an easy road win. They
went down to the wire against the Cardinals, the Giants,
the Lions, and they were trailing the Steelers at halftime
before eventually winning by ten. The Packers have been getting
chunk games through the air the last couple of weeks.
That's how they beat the Lions and the Bears. That's
(03:47):
gonna be much harder to do against the Denver defense
that leads the league in sacks by a wide margin.
And I also wonder, Matt, the Packers have had two
big divisional games in a row. It seems weird to
call this a letdown spot when both teams are sitting
number one in their respective conferences fighting for our first
round playoff by but it's it's hard for a team
(04:08):
to come through in big spots three weeks in a
row against high quality opponents.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
So I do feel like this should.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Be more of a pick'em game than Packers minus two
and a half.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
I like the Broncos here.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I think you're right, and I want to watch this
number this week because if if three pops, I'm all
over Denver.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Like two and a half.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
It tells me that they're going to let the pros
dictate which direction it goes. It opened up at one,
it was jumped to two and a half. But I mean,
we haven't seen a ton of line movements so far here.
I mean, if you just look at you know, a book,
you know, you know, let's look at hard rock bet
hard rock bet from from a number perspective.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
It was two, it was two and a half. Now
we're back down to two.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
We've seen some ping ponging going on for this over
the last couple of hours, even here, even today, it
was too early. This morning, you know, at one thirty
in the morning when the guys opened up the you know,
the bets on Tuesday morning, it was two. The first
action that hard Rock bet took was at two and
a half or was that two to move it to
two and a half. So if we get the three,
I like Denver a lot. I don't really understand this
(05:15):
thought because you could say that Denver has a two
game lead on the Chargers, but the Chargers aren't like dead.
I mean, they aren't like the Broncos, can't just coast
like that. I know the Packers need the game more,
but I'm surprised at this number given bo Nix's numbers
at home versus on the road. He is a totally
different quarterback in Denver than he is outside. The defense
(05:39):
plays totally differently in Denver than outside. I'm very surprised
to see a home dog here. I like your play
a lot. I think I think Denver wins the game outright.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
Yeah, I agree, And there might be value to just
betting the money line on this one rather than especially
if it stays at two and a half and does
not get to that three point mark that you're hoping
it will.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Yeah, and I think once we wake up and realize
they're like, oh wait, really, Denver's a home dog, I
think the number might might go away. So this could
be a candidate for a locket in number too that
you want if you want points with the Broncos, to
take it before the public wakes up and realizes, oh wait,
the Broncos are home dogs.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
How's that possible.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
My first play is I'm going to look to the
Jacksonville Jaguars here, and I think if you look at
the big spreads that we have seen over the last
couple of weeks, there's been monster numbers. There's been you know,
this number opened at four and a half way back
when okay, it's been steamed all the way up to
eleven and a half. I'm actually comfortable laying big numbers
(06:37):
this week, and I'm normally not the person to come
in and say lay big numbers. But I don't know
what the Jets are doing at quarterback, and the Jets
are going to have a difficult time scoring against the
Jaguar defense that is going to be motivated. This is
going to be you know, who knows what the weather
will look like. If it's going to be like last
week where it was raining on and off. Is a
difficult play. The Jaguars at nine and four. I I'm
(07:00):
buying in. I'm buying into the Jags. I'm buying into
what they're doing. I think the Jets are done. I
think the Jaguars running attack. I think Trevor Lawrence ETN.
And this defense. Again, this is gonna be my refrain
in another game as well that we'll talk about. I
don't know how the Jets score. And if I don't
how they're gonna score, there's not a point spread. I'm
probably gonna not want to look at. I mean, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen,
(07:23):
I don't care really on this.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
It's a big number.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
And yes, the Jets defense is decent, but there's been
so many injuries and they've traded away so many players
that this is not the same Jet defense that we
have seen. We just saw Miami go up and down
the field on them like they weren't even there at home.
I'll lay whatever points. It's eleven and a half right now,
I'll lay it with the Jags.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
If this had been Tyrod Taylor at quarterbacks for yeah, so,
and even if the number was down at like ten,
I'd actually be interested in taking the points with the
visiting team, Like I just I don't know, Matt. Maybe
I should start trusting the Jaguars. I'm not there yet.
But to your point about the quarterback situation, if it's
(08:05):
Justin Fields at quarterback for the Jets, this plays into
the way the Jaguars play on defense, like they are
really tough against the run, and if you're gonna beat him,
it's gonna be through the air.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
I don't know if Justin Fields can do that.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
He hasn't beaten anyone through the air all year, which
is why Tyrod.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
Taylor was playing quarterback.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
So yeah, I'm as of now, I'm probably gonna lay
off this game.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
But I kind of see it the way you see
it here.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
It's just do I feel comfortable enough laying double digits
with the Jaguars. I'm not sure I do. But if
I was going to play this, I think i'd play
the Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
The books are going to tempt the public to take
dogs this week that this to me looks like a
week in which the books are going to say, all right, fine,
you want to lay a favorite, here's a number.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Let's make you.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
Uncomfortable and you know, to steal a line from my
former co host, he's called an uncomfortable lay. And that's
what this is. Okay, it's not fun to go ahead
and lay eleven and a half, twelve and a half,
thirteen points. But it doesn't matter because the team that
they're playing is completely done and the Jaguars are very
much alive for you know, the division. A wild card
(09:17):
like this is an important game for the Jaguars, maybe
one of the bigger games in recent memory. And if
Lee and Cohen falls in his face, if Trevor Lawrence
gives up all this good will that they just got
from the home win last week, that's a bad sign.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
I'm gonna buy in. I like the first year head coach.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
I like the moxie of these young coaches coming in
and changing the culture. And even Trevor Lawrence is playing
really well at the moment. He struggled in the beginning,
but he has turned the corner. Bet number two for
you for the week where we're.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Going sticking with his Packers Broncos games and game, and
I like under forty three and a half points.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
Yeah, that's one.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
We have two of the better defenses in the league.
Squaring off, Broncos are first in the league in sacks,
fifth and pressure rate. Packers are top ten in pressure rate.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
We know Michaeh.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Parsons is gonna make bo Nix's afternoon difficult, and really
the Broncos offense is pretty average. Bo Nix hasn't been
especially good, as you said, Matt, I mean better at
home than on the road. But he's averaging six point
three yards per pass attempt. That's not a very inspiring number.
And four of the Broncos last five games have played
(10:25):
to forty one or fewer points. Now the Packers, on
the other hand, they've scored thirty one and twenty eight
points in their last two games, both very high profile games.
The win over the Lions on Thanksgiving the win over
the Bears in a nationally televised game for the NFC
North lead. I think that's why this total is what
it is, because America has seen Jordan Love in the
(10:46):
Green Bay passing game ball out the last couple of weeks.
But the Packers were hitting on a lot of big
plays in those games, big chunk games through the air.
The lines have allowed the second most passing plays of
twenty or more yards. It's this season, the Bears the
third most. The Broncos, they've a lot of the fifth
fewest completions of twenty or more yards. And oh, by
(11:07):
the way, one of the teams that's allowed fewer big
passing plays than the Broncos the Packers. So you are
not going to see a lot of big chunk plays
through the air in this game. I don't think this
Denver defense is going to let Jordan Love have his way,
and I don't think the Denver offense is going to
fly up and down the field against this Green Bay defense.
So I'll be pretty surprised if this game goes over
(11:30):
forty three and a half points, and it really feels
like more of a seventeen to four K fourteen game.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
To me, I like that play better than your first play.
I think the unders in automatic. I think it's been
unders have been over the last two weeks have been
very profitable. We've seen primetime unders go back to being
how it used to be where primetime unders were very profitable.
The game on Monday Night State Under it should have
gone over, but it was an overtime and then the
pick at the end really iced the under. It was
(11:58):
forty one and a half, a close ended in forty one.
So we've seen a lot of low scoring defensive battles
here over the last couple of weeks. I think this
is right in line with another game that's going to
be in the teams for both teams, not a high
scoring shootout in Denver. Frankly, we haven't seen a shootout
in Denver in a while, Like, we haven't seen games
like that in Denver just because how the Broncos defense
(12:20):
plays and how their offense has been somewhat inept at
really moving the football consistently and even running the ball consistently.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
So I like the under.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Yeah, that Giants Broncos game was the last kind of crazy.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
But that was because of the fourth quarter collapse for
the Giants. That was an under game all the way
unto the fourth quarter. Yeah, because the Broncos did nothing,
and then you know, the Giants became that team now
that we all know, the fourth quarter collapse is on
for the New York Giants, so sitting records for a
number of ten point leads in the fourth quarter that
they blown, that they blew.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
So yeah, that was was an.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Under game until it turned into well, not for my
second bet. And this goes again with kind of a
theme here about teams that I thought that they thought
they were going to be in it and they're not.
I like the Chargers, who are coming off a short week,
off of a emotional, unbelievable overtime victory over the Eagles
(13:12):
in which they were either going to tie that game
or lose that game outright huge pick. That defense turned
the ball over five times, four picks, a fumble recovery.
I think that defense is playing extremely well, and I
do not like the body language out of the case Chiefs,
who are now six and seven, sorry, and have to
(13:33):
look at themselves in the mirror and say what direction
are we going to go? Because this offseason is going
to be the most interesting offseason in Patrick Mahomes's career
thirty one years old. They're going to miss the postseason.
Travis Kelcey, by all accounts, is going to get married
in June and retire and be done. How much longer
(13:55):
does Andy Reid want to coach? This team has got
a lot of holes, This team's got a lot of questions.
They've got a lot of big ticket items like Chris
Jones and Patrick Mahomes, and when you pay your big players,
you don't have the money to pay other players that
need to be on the roster. I like the plus
four and a half Chiefs win maybe, but they do
(14:15):
it's by three. I like the Chargers plus four and
a half, and I could see the winning the game
outright at Arrowhead coming up on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
This was one of the picks that just missed the
cut for me. Matt, Yeah, I feel the same way.
And by all accounts, some of the reporting was that
the Chiefs locker room had a funereal feel to it
after that loss against the Texans on Sunday night, Like
(14:43):
the Chiefs pretty much know it's over, and I think
there are gonna be a lot of big changes. You
mentioned the Travis Kelce thing, and I just I think
the Chiefs need to fundamentally reshape their offense, which just
hasn't worked. And I thought getting Rashi Rice back might
be sort of the the secret, but now it's almost
like too much for she. Rice still just don't have
(15:04):
a running game, and that's a problem because I think
that's where maybe the Chargers are most exploitable. They've been
really tough against the pass this year. So I don't
think Patrick Mahomes is going to have a big day
in the air against the Chargers. And we kind of
saw that with the Chargers against Philly, like they gave
up a few players to the Eagles in the passing
(15:25):
game for the most part, like they caused more problems
for the Philly passing game than they gave up big plays.
So I do the one thing I worry about is that,
you know, the Chargers didn't have a lot of success
through the air in that game.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
I worry about the state of justin.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Mine is the biggest concern, the big problem. Thousand sacks
last night to the Eagles defensive front.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
And Herbert handled the pressure pretty well, Like I don't
know if the hand issue is a problem for him.
He was running around really aggressively.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Rushing last night.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Yeah, so we'll see it. Points might be hard to
come by in this game, but I do think the
Chargers are a good play here, like getting this many
points why against a just morally decimated team like the Chiefs.
And by the way, Matt, the Miami Dolphins have the
(16:20):
same record as the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Six town and one team is jumping up and down
about being six and seven and the other team is
very depressed about being six and seven. There are very
different perspectives of glass half full versus glass half empty.
When it comes to Miami versus Kansas City. One team
is like, all right, we got a shot. Another team
(16:42):
is like, oh my god, what happened to us? We've
fallen apart?
Speaker 1 (16:46):
So yeah, it is.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
It is all about perspective when it comes to the
Chiefs and that record of six and seven for them
and pretty much out of the playoff picture.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Where is your third bet for this week?
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Pet, It's gonna be with the Colts Seahawks under forty
two and a half points. And I had a hard
time deciding whether I like the line more or the
total more in this game. Chose the total. What are
the Colts going to do at quarterback? Daniel Jones tour
his achilles on Sunday. Riley Leonard, who came in in
(17:17):
place of Jones, has some sort of knee issue that
is putting his in doubt.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Yeah, I would say he's not playing.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
I would say Ry Leonard's not going to play in
this game because he's a young quarterback and why risk it?
And by all accounts that knee injury is a bit
more significant, because why are they calling Philip rivers if
they have any shot? I mean, AR fifteen is not
playing okay, right, so forget about Richardson. I don't think
he'll play in a cult uniform ever again, so like goodbye.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
I mean, I think they'd be willing to roll the
dice with him and give him a second chance. But
he does have that orbital bone fracture. This are incident
before a game where he was stretching out with an
elastic band and it snapped back in his face, like
Wiley Coyote, do not get your elastic stretch bans from
the ACME company. Yeah, if the Seahawks get a lead,
(18:10):
and they will in this game, They're going to take
the air out of the ball.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
That's just how they want to play.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
The Seahawks as it is, even in competitive games, like
they have the third lowest pass rate over expected in
the league at minus seven percent, and they are the
only team in the NFL that has had more running
plays than passing plays this year. So I think we
are going to see a game that's thirty to seven,
(18:38):
twenty three to seven, twenty eight to ten, it just
I don't think Seattle is going to push this game
over by themselves. And I don't see the Colts scoring
more than about ten points with a mystery box quarterback.
I mean, are we really going to see Philip Rivers?
Who a friend of mine texting me last night, He's like,
(18:59):
have you seen up Rivers? This guy does not look
game ready, like he's maybe been enjoying retirement.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
So he a grandfather. I'm forty eight, he's forty four.
I'm older than him. He's gonna play in an NFL
football game on a short week? Are you serious? This
is a clown show. I mean, this is a joke.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
Against one of the best defenses in the league, like
a truly fearsome defense. It's not like you're playing the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
And this is my third play. This is my third
play of the week. I don't care what the number is.
They just beat the Vikings twenty six. Nothing name the score.
I mean, I mean the Colts aren't scoring. I mean
they're just not not Again, a Vikings competent offense could
not score against the Seahawks on the road in Seattle.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
I will be stunned if the Colts.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
I don't care if Jonathan Taylor is running the ball
from the wildcat the entire game, they're not going to
score up a kidst So the under is a very
good play. The team total, I don't know what the
book's gonna put the team total at. It's not up
yet for the Colts because my gut, my gut tells
me it's like six and a half, Like the Colts
just aren't gonna score in this game. And Seattle just
went and we talked about it, and it was one
(20:14):
of my plays here last week, and I didn't bet it.
I I this is where good lesson for you guys
who were a little bit new to the gambling space.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I had a phone call with a friend of mine
who I.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Really respect, who is playing in the circum millions, who's
doing pretty well in circum millions, and they stood on
a table for the Falcons, like still on a table,
gave me like a thousand different reasons why to bet
the Falcons, And so I said, all right, I like Seattle,
you like the Falcons. The best play sometimes is the
one you don't make, so I'm gonna get off of it.
So I sat here on Tuesday and said, bet Seattle
(20:46):
bet Seattle, Bet Seattle. Then when it came down to
bet Seattle, I choked. And what did the Seahawks do?
They go and kill the Falcons. They covered the seven
points like it was like it was nothing. I'm not
gonna make that same mistake this week. I'm not gonna
be scared off by the number. I'll lay the thirteen
and a half points Seahawks big over the Colts because
I don't know how a competent offense shows up in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
Yeah, that's funny. You mentioned that about the Seahawks Falcons game.
That was one last bat where I was looking at
my card last Sunday and I'm like, Sarah, any chance
the Falcons are going to hang with Seattle? And I,
you know, and in otherwise pretty bad week, threw some
money on the Seahawks late, and yeah, it mitigated the
damage for Week fourteen.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
I kick it.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
I was watching the game, going, you gotta be kidding me,
like I knew to bet this game, Like why didn't I?
And the in game number was nuts it had run,
so I didn't even bet an end game like it
was I That was a frustration for me on so
many levels, and it just if you feel like you
have a like a good read, just listen to yourself.
Moral of the story is, listen to yourself. Don't let
anybody else influence the bets that you're going to make. Guys,
(21:52):
today's say show is being brought to you by hard
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Speaker 1 (22:23):
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Speaker 5 (22:37):
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Speaker 1 (23:06):
If you are alive for Survivor, Bravo.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
I have heard across the country that most these contests
are over given. After what happened on Thanksgiving and what
happened last week in Vegas, the Bucks took out sixty
two percent of the remaining contestants entries for Sorcer Survivor,
which was eighteen point seven million. If you are alive
for a Survivor contest this week, though, Pat, where should
(23:32):
the players go?
Speaker 3 (23:34):
I think we both agree that Seattle looks like one
of the more attractive possibilities. I think number two in
my hierarchy would be the forty nine Ers playing at
home against the Titans with the rest advantage too coming
off the buy. So then the Jaguars. I mean you
mentioned liking the Jaguars. I think they're a reasonable third option,
(23:56):
and then I feel less great about they Could the
Eagles possibly lose to the Raiders at home? Yes, yeah, yes,
that kind of scares me too, and I worry a
little bit.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
The Texans are favored by.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
I think nine and a half at home against the Cardinals.
Like that to the Cardinals have been plucky. I just
the Texans scare me in Survivor pulls because I don't
trust that offense at all. Sure the defense is phenomenal,
but I don't trust that offense. So they'd be pretty
well behind the Seahawks, forty nine Ers, and Jaguars in
(24:31):
my order of preference. But I think the Eagles and
Texans are options too.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
Is there anyone go ahead you could do a four
leg moneyline parlay? I think of the big spread getters
this week and feel pretty good about it. I think
I think you know, I don't foresee a major double
digit team losing outright. Maybe they don't cover, but I
think it would be a falling on your face type moment.
(24:55):
If the Texans the Jaguars, like teams are big favorites
at home, can't get it done just to win the
football game, that would be somewhat surprising. I think you're
right to avoid questionable teams like, oh, the Eagles are
gonna pull out of it, right, I don't know. The
Raiders are the worst team in football, so I wouldn't
necessarily take the points, but I wouldn't lay the points
of the Eagles, and I wouldn't take the Eagles money
(25:16):
line either, just because of how poorly that offense is
performing and the Raiders are a dumpster fire. But still
there is I can tell you on the ground here
in Vegas to fallout from that field goal that was kicked.
I can't tell you the last time on the nightly news,
the local five and six o'clock news, that one of
the top stories was the Raiders kicking that field goal
(25:39):
and having all the gambling implications. I've never felt more
like I live in Las Vegas than watching the five
o'clock news, and one of the lead stories is major
fallout from Pete Carroll kicking the field goal at the
end of the game.
Speaker 1 (25:51):
It was like, wait, what, Like where do I live?
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Like?
Speaker 1 (25:53):
This is tremendous living in the right town to have
this happen. But there's some interesting eyeballs on the Raiders
that I think this team will.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
Will come out and play pretty hard this week against
the Eagles and maybe even scare Philadelphia a little bit here.
So I wouldn't have I wouldn't use the Eagles and Survivor,
but I think those are our four very good options
this week. If you are still available, and chances are
you have the Jags left, which is a big one,
and you may have the Texans left as well, depending
(26:20):
on how your your bracket figured out the path you
took for Survivor, you may have the Texans the other ones.
I'd be surprised if you have still available here in
week fifteen, but if you do, I definitely Seattle would
definitely be a team that I would be using for
Survivor against the Colts. Guys, if you have not downloaded
(26:41):
the Betting Pros app definitely go and do so because
you can track your bets and get line alert straight
to your phone. With sportsbooks Sink automatically track your bets
across all major sportsbooks in one spot, easily monitor your
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New users can get six months of Betting Pros Premium
(27:03):
for free with their first deposit in wager and one
of our partner sportsbooks. Learn more by lugging onto Bettingpros
dot com slash premium. All right, for a lock it
in pat where are you going for a number you
think might move?
Speaker 3 (27:15):
I'm going to get the Browns plus seven and a
half against the Bears in Chicago, and obviously the seven
and a half that that is the reason I'm dialed
in on this one. And look, we know the Bears
had sort of out kicked their performance with their record,
Like their record far exceeds their you know, net point total,
(27:40):
which is just barely over even like they're plus single digits.
I want to say the Browns offense is more credible
with Shudor Sanders at quarterback. It's less condensed than it
was with Dylan Gabriel. They've got a little bit of
a downfield passing game now with Jerry Judy and Harold Thann.
(28:00):
And the Bears pass defense is not good. We just
saw this in the Green Bay game, not much of
a pass rush. They had gotten their two best cornerbacks
back from injury, Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon. Jalen Johnson
was bad in the Packers game, and Kyler Gordon reinjured
himself and probably isn't gonna play this week. So the
Browns are three to ten, but five of their losses
(28:21):
has been one score games. The Bears are nine to four,
six of their wins have been one score games. And
the weather for this one matt high of eleven degrees
forecast for Chicago on Sunday, with wins of ten to
twenty miles an hour, it is probably going to be
a low scoring, run heavy game. So I like an
underdog getting more than.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
A touchdown here.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
Yeah, I like the under. That game a lot and
dog and under. It's a quarrelat up play. I like
it dogging under and that one for me, I'm gonna
go to the biggest game of the week. Patriots are
catching one and a half points. I don't understand, Like
as a Patriot fan, sure, there's a bit of a
disrespect thing going on here, but a road favorite in
(29:04):
this game for a team off a buy a team
that already beat the Bills, A Bills team that was
lucky to beat the Bengals last week, and if it
wasn't for Joe Burrow throwing two picks in the fourth
quarter of that game, they probably lose to the Bengals
at home. The Bills on the road are a far
different team. They have one home loss this year, that's
(29:27):
to the Patriots. They're three and three on the road,
including some really poor performances away from home. This number,
the Bills may win the game. Okay, and I may
be dead wrong on this, but this is just a
straight numbers play. You're gonna give me a point and
a half for the Patriots at home against a team
they already beat in the biggest game of the year
off a buy now Patriots plus one and a half
(29:50):
simply on a principal play.
Speaker 1 (29:52):
I don't get the number.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
Pat I do think that's the right percentage play, Matt.
Could the Bills win? Absolutely, Like they're a good team,
but they are a little bit of a paper tiger.
This is not as good as Bills team as we've
seen the last couple of years, and especially on the road,
we've seen them look pretty vulnerable. And boy, you know,
the Patriots are going to be pretty pretty geared up
(30:13):
for this one.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Yeah. This is the biggest game in the last five years.
I mean, this is massive. This is a hat and
T shirt game. Patriots haven't had a hat and T
shirt game since Brady.
Speaker 4 (30:23):
And who are you?
Speaker 3 (30:24):
Who are you trusting to get your team up for
a big game? Mike Frabele or McDermott.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
Yeah, so yeah, I think you take the point that
that's going to be gone.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
Okay, I will say this on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
I will be stunned if we go off with the
Bills favored in this game.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
Stunned.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
Like I think the number of moves, I think it
probably closes Patriots minus one when we're all said and done.
Think Patch will be five favored at the end. So
I think you give me plus one and a half. Yeah,
take it, take it now. And maybe that's the books
laying a trap knowing what people are gonna bet, and
they're gonna put out there because they know everyone's gonna
bet to Patriots. So they can't go ahead and and say,
all right, we're not going to you know, let you
get plus points with the bills because the the pros
(31:05):
are going to be on Buffalo and the public to
meet on the Patriots. Fine, but I'm just taking it
on a principal play. Give me the Patriots. I'll buy
my team at plus one and a half. Guys, it's
one more reminder that you can score six months of
Betting Pros Premium for free. Just make a deposit and
place your wager at a partner sports book. Premium gives
you access to the sharp AI betting systems, the prop
(31:26):
bit cheat sheet, in the same game, parlay builder, all
the tools you need to bet smarter. Claim your upgrade
now at bettingpros dot com Slash Premium. All right, pat
on the way out? Who gets What's what's the story
after week fifteen? What's what's the game that's going to
have your attention that might surprise some people with the outcome?
Speaker 3 (31:48):
What is going to surprise people with the outcome? I
I mean, would it be a shut Like, I don't
think it's going to be surprising if Denver wins that
that game against the pack I'm just I'm shocked that
the Packers are favored in that one. So that's what
that's what my mind is kind of turning to. And
I I'll say that the Dolphins have a pretty good
(32:11):
chance of upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
I think Cleveland beats the Bears. Wow, I think I
think outright Cleland, Cleveland beats the Bears. I think that
all those one score wins, all of that like margin
that was going for the Bears.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
I think end of the year it flips the other way.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
I think I think the law of averages kick in
here for Chicago.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
Yeah, and the Bears win.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
I like that one and the Dolphins Steelers one. And
I'm not sure if I can totally buy this yet,
but the way the Dolphins have been playing with defense
and the running game lately, the only thing that gave
me pause is I don't know if they're gonna have
Devon ah Chan or not. Right otherwise, like the Steelers
might be able to out stealer the Steelers, or the
Dolphins might be about Steeler, the Steelers and they's just
(32:54):
been run and play defense.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
Steelers are gonna need it, and then I'll win that game.
They're gonna have a difficult time. Ravens should wind up
winning this week, and then the Ravens have a chance
to go and they beat Cincinnati, beat the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Baltimore's a two and a half point favorite there. If
they win that game and the Steelers lose to Miami,
we're back to being tied at the top of the division.
(33:20):
And then the Bengals really kicked them Sales for losing
to the Bills because they had a shot to win
the division. If that were to play out, the Bengals
would be right there. This game would be huge for them,
but because that loss last week, that was really costly
for them. He is bet fist Morris, I am at Paralti.
We'll talk to you guys coming up next week. If
you haven't subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, please
(33:40):
do so hit subscribe, leave some comments on what game
you think is going to be shocking for Week fifteen,
and then Pat and i We've back coming up next
week to recap it all here on the Betting Pros
YouTube channel.
Speaker 6 (33:49):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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