September 9, 2025 • 33 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite Week 2 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Week 1 Recap - 0:00:25
Commanders-Packers under 48.5 - 0:02:59
Packers -3.5 vs. Commanders - 0:04:40
Cowboys-Giants under 44.5 - 0:07:08
Steelers -3 vs. Seahawks - 0:09:35
Patriots ML at Dolphins +105 - 0:12:03
Hard Rock Bet - 0:16:30
Buccaneers +3 at Texans - 0:17:26
Survivor Pool Picks - 0:19:48
Lock-it-in-now bets - 0:25:20
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
What's up, guys? How are you welcome into Week two?
It's our early best bets looks at the NFL and
our survivor pools. He'th fitsy, I'm perolt. I'm playing hurt.
It's two guys talking football where baseball hats today? Thanks
for watching, everybody. We hope to give you some early
looks as to what the NFL is gonna look like
and keep you alive in those survivor pools. Fitsy, how'd
(00:23):
the week one go for you?
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Yeah? It was. It was a mixed bag, Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
You know enough that I basically lost the juice and
you know, kind of a five hundred week.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
What about you? How is the betting? And how's the
shoulder winner?
Speaker 3 (00:36):
You're gonna be able to give the Red Sox five innings.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
It's gonna be a while before I can throw anything.
The shoulder is okay, it's it's it's a pictorial tendon
tear surgery that I have so our had. So it's
been an interesting week. I'm not gonna lie. It's uh,
it's coming along. It's definitely different to sit here and
not have the ability to use your right arm. But uh,
we're we're gonna battle ruined. Luckily, I don't dig ditches
(01:01):
for a living, so I'm okay to just sit and talk.
So that's our job here. Week one for me went
pretty well. The Vikings game kind of tapped off what
was a pretty good week for me. To come back
by JJ McCarthy and company in the second half definitely
kind of turned the tide for me, and he played
pretty well. I had him for a couple of touchdown
tosses at plus money, so that was good to get
(01:21):
him to go and complete that. So overall, a good
first week. But what was your biggest surprise? What score
stuck out to you and made you go, huh, that
didn't go the way I thought it was going to go.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Yeah, I mean, it's got to be my green Bay
Packers thumping the Detroit Lions pretty decidedly, because Detroit had
really had their number six and one over excuse me,
five and one for the Lions over the last three
years with Dan Campbell just sort of you know, having
it over Matt lafleur Man. I mean, like women, it
(01:54):
snaps for Micah Parsons. But even when he was not
on the field, the green Bay defense was just lights agreed.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
For me, it was the scoring for the Jets and
the Steelers. I didn't see that coming. That was my
worst bet of the week. I had the under in that.
I bet that early. I thought thirty nine was going
to be good. I expected a ten to seven football
game when we got thirty four to thirty two. So
I was not expecting Aaron Rodgers to throw for four touchdowns,
(02:22):
to throw for over two hundred and forty yards and
no interceptions in his debut, and no one has done
that in sixty years in the NFL. So that was
an eye opener to me. We'll get into that. Week
two for the Steelers here coming up, all right, So
the format for this, guys, We're gonna give you three
bets each that we like right now for week two,
(02:43):
then a survivor play that you guys can look to
lock in, and then a bet you should make right
now as the numbers very well might move on you
in a way to get the best of the numbers
here early in the week. So pad for you bet
number one. What are you looking at for Week two?
Speaker 3 (02:59):
You know I I'm looking at the Commanders and the
Packers on Thursday night going under forty eight and a half.
The Packers have given up seventeen point nine points a
game over their last ten, dating back to last year
and including their playoff game. They just played their first
game with Micah Parsons and held the Lions, who have
one of the best offenses in the league, to thirteen
(03:20):
points and four yards per play. Packers' defensive coordinator Jeff
Hafley is just a sharp guy. He is a future
head coach in the NFL. Giving him Micah Parsons was
just unfair, Like Green Bay is going to have one
of the best defenses in the league this year. Also,
the Green Bay offense operated at a snail's pace in
(03:41):
Week one, the fourth slowest pace in the league. They
were run heavy again, just as they were last year.
So I think the Packers could be kind of an
undermachine this year. And you know the Commanders. They just
won their opener over the Giants twenty one to six.
Their defense looked good, So betting the under here mostly
about the Packers with their excellent d and their slow paced,
(04:03):
run heavy offense, but also about the defenses just generally
being ahead of the offenses across the league. Matt, we
saw a lot of unders hit in week one, and
I think weirdly enough, I'm pretty sure that of the
early afternoon starts on Sunday, Jet Steelers was the only
one that went over.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Yeah, three games in total wound up going over in
week number one, so heavy on the Unders. Defense is
playing way ahead of the offenses. I don't know if
that continues in week two, but I do think the
Packers are going to shut down the Commanders. And that's
the same game I'm looking at as well. And I
don't know if it's because it's your team you don't
want to take them, but I think the Packers are
(04:41):
going to cover that three and a half point spread.
And I know that the books are making you stop
and go. You're sure you want to bet more than three,
and that's why they hook that. They put the hook
on it to kind of keep people off of it.
But I don't think the Commanders are going to move
the football. And I think this is where Micah parsons
in week two. You can build a pack kids ready
to go for him to chase down a very mobile
(05:03):
quarterback and get Daniels to the ground and not allow
him to beat you with his legs. Look, I think
the Giants are a bad football team, and I think
the Giants are going to be a bad football team
all year. I don't care who plays quarterback for the Giants.
That offense is not going to be successful week to week.
So I know they only scored six points. I don't
(05:24):
think Commanders defense is any good. I think the Packers
are going to move the football on that defense. I
think they'll run the football on that defense. I like
your team to go to two and oh here. And
there's going to be a lot of talk about this
Packers team in what they may look like coming up,
say January February. They've got the quarterback, They've got the receivers. Now,
(05:46):
how'd you like Matthew Golden's debut in a Packer uniform?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
A little quieter than I would have liked. Hopefully he'll
be a little.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
More active in the weeks to come, but we kind
of knew it was going to be an ensemble cast
of pass catchers for Green Bay. One thing I'll add, man,
the reason I may eventually wind up betting the Packers
and tailing you on this one is it's just a
more comfortable setup for the Packers. They opened at home,
and they get to stay at home in the short week.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Yeah, Commanders have to travel in the short week.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
So yeah, and it's quick right week one, week two? Like,
think about when you started a new workout regiment, like
what your body feels like after the first week or
the first couple of days. You're like, oh, playing your
first NFL football game and then having to turn around
and play on a Thursday night on the road in
a hostile environment with Micah Parsons and Jordan Love. It's
(06:35):
a recipe for success. I'm actually surprised the number is
not higher than three and a half, to be quite honest,
and I think it's just in the market at the moment.
People think the Commanders are going to be the same
Commander's team as last year. I don't agree with it,
and I think the Packers are going to be a
much better team than people think. We may look back
on this number in a couple of weeks and go man.
We got the Packers at three and a half on
(06:56):
Thursday night against the Commanders. That was a step of
a price. So I like the Commanders. Sorry, I like
the Packers zero over the Commanders lay in three and
a half for number two game for you which.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Is it another under Cowboys Giants under forty four and
a half, And I'm just going to keep betting unders
on Giants games until I lose one. They just lost
to the Commander's twenty one six. The Giants are going
to be an under machine this year. Their offense stinks.
It's possible we see them make a QB change as
early as this week. They don't have Andrew Thomas, their
(07:30):
star left tackle. I don't think they're supposed to get
him back this week, and the rest of the offensive
line is terrible. And on defense, the Giants have Dexter Lawrence,
Brian Burns, Cavon Thibodeau, Abdul Carter wreaking havoc up front.
The Cowboys had a respectable offensive showing against a good
Eagles defense in Week one, although the Eagles lost Jalen
(07:50):
Carter before the game and that one for the spitting episode.
But this is still a pretty one dimensional Dallas offense
with very little punch in the running game. Dak Prescott
is gonna have to try to make plays against this
Giants defense that can really put the heat on quarterback.
So I think this one plays under forty four and
a half.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Yeah, I'm gonna trail you on this. I know I'll
be on the under. There is a pretty good chance
I'm gonna be on the Cowboys as well. Early in
the year, I'm gonna fade the Giants. I'm on the
under five and a half wins for the Giants. I've
been down to them all summer, and nothing happened in
week one that led me to go, Yeah, I want
to go ahead and take the Giants at any number.
(08:30):
And I know eight is heavy, and so that's why
I wouldn't say bet it right away, Like, let's watch
the number a bit and see if you can wind
up getting a better number. Maybe the pro money comes
in on the Giants, because the professionals can help themselves
when it comes to plus money and plus eight, so
they take the Giants, and maybe we get a seven
and a half or a seven on the Cowboys. But
(08:52):
most likely I'm gonna wind up being on the Cowboys.
But from an under perspective, yeah, I mean, the only
fear is that the game gets away from the Giants
and it turns into like, you know, a thirty eight
seven type of game, and it just gets really really ugly.
On New York if there's a lot of interceptions, you know,
if from an under perspective, I'd rather have Russ play
(09:13):
than Jackson Dart just because the interception potential is super
high for Jackson Dart, So I don't want the turnovers
and the short fields and the easy points for Dallas.
So that would be my only concern with the under.
But if it is going to be, like Double said,
if he's going to play at least to start with
Russell Wilson, yeah, I like your bet with the under
(09:34):
a lot. I'm gonna talk about We talked going on
the road, and I think Seattle is going to have
a tough time here going to Pittsburgh in their home
opener with what we just saw out of this offense
with renegade in full throat, because a lot of Pittsburgh
Steeler fans went into Week one going I don't know
about Aaron Rodgers, I don't know about this team, and
(09:56):
I know the defense gave up a bunch of points,
but I feel like that to steel can fix the
defense pretty quickly. And I'm not in love with what
I saw out of Sam Darnold in that Seahawks offense
and look big jumps from week one to week two,
but that's a defensive minded team. I don't mind the under,
but I'm a little gun shy because the Steelers just
burn me. And what happens if Aaron Rodgers puts up
(10:17):
another big game against the defense that we think is
going to be pretty good. So I have not bet
the under yet in this game, but I like the
home Steelers laying just a field goal against a team
going across the country in week number two for the
Steelers and the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Yeah, that's my favorite part of this is that these
Seahawks have to travel coast to coast early in the season.
So I don't know what to make of the Seahawks matn.
I certainly expected a better offensive showing in Week one
with Clint Kubiak, who an offensive coordinator I generally like
and have faith in. They just look kind of ragged
(10:56):
at home against the Niners in Week one. One thing, though,
like I expect their running game to get going a
little bit. I think the running game usually works for
the koobi ACX, whether it's Clinton or his dad Gary
back in the day, and the Pittsburgh run defense did
not look that great in Week one against the Jets.
They let Breece Hall have kind of a big day
(11:16):
on the ground. It seemed like they were missing Keanu
Bent and their their nose tackle. So I'm a little
nervous about this one, Matt. I don't know if I'm
going to be on it. I'm not betting Seattle, but
I don't know if I have enough faith in the
Steelers yet with Aaron Rodgers to take this on.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
You like Seattle, You liked him last week. You liked him,
and then we talked in week one. God, you like Seattle.
I need to see more out of the Seahawks before
I can get to your side. Very clear, Sam Arnold,
I mean, I love Kevin O'Connell. I love the Vikings.
JJ McCarthy had a bad first half, and then JJ
McCarthy played his butt off in the second half. It
(11:57):
gets the Bears on the road and it was like, Okay,
the coach got to the kid, calmed him down, focused him,
got him, you know, in the right mindset. I don't
know if there's anybody like that on the Seattle Seahawks
sidelines with Sam Darnold, so on the road to Pittsburgh,
really tough place to play, in the Steelers defense gave
up over thirty points in Week one. I don't think
that happens again. Coming up in week number two for
(12:20):
game number three. For you pat where are you going?
Speaker 3 (12:23):
I can't wait to hear your take on this one, Matts,
because I am taking your Patriots on the money line,
going to Miami on the road.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
The Patriots plus one oh September in September September.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
Uh oh, Matt.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
This is all about the Dolphins, who are an early
candidate for the Disaster Team of twenty twenty five. I mean,
they were just smoked by the Colts in their season
opener thirty three to eight, and none of us are
really expecting the Colts to be world beaters this year.
The Colts lift gained the Dolphins four hundred and eighteen
yards to two hundred and eleven yards in that game.
(12:58):
To a tongue of I Loo looked awful at quarterback
for Miami. The Dolphins defense made Daniel Freaking Jones look
like a star. I don't think this was a one
off bad performance. Like the Dolphins have been giving off
terrible vibes for a while. I don't think Mike McDaniel
is going to last the season as head coach. And
you know, the Patriots weren't exactly world beaters. In Week one,
(13:21):
they lost their home opener to the Raiders, but the
game was at least competitive throughout. I know, man, I'm
curious about your expectations for the Raiders. I don't know
that I'm expecting a lot of wins this year, but
I do expect them to play respectably all year under
Mike Vrabel. And you know I will happily take them
at plus money to beat this Miami team.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Yeah, it is interesting. The first move came on Miami.
I think that was a historical move because generally speaking,
the Patriots when they play in September in Miami melt
it's normally one hundred degrees. They put the opposing team
in the sun side of the field. Dolphins normally are
very competitive. And then the Patriots returned the favor in
December when the Dolphins must go to New England and
(14:04):
play in the freezing cold. So when it's scheduled out
like this, generally the Patriots split with the Dolphins. However,
effort to go back just a Pop Warner football, what's
the one thing you control and its effort, and there
was no effort there for the Dolphins. In Week number one,
Daniel Jones scored on his first seven possessions. That's Daniel
(14:26):
Jones from the New York Giants scored on seven consecutive
possessions to start his career with the Indianapolis Colts. If
I'm a Dolphin fan, I'm thinking to myself, Okay, how
do we get out of this? And when do we
fire the head coach and try to make something of
this season? Because you can't have to fighting with receivers.
(14:46):
Tarreek Hall was already yelling at people the Patriots should
have Christian Gonzalez back. I think they held him out
knowing who they're playing. In week number two, saying okay,
let's hopefully get past the Raiders without Christian Gonzales didn't happen,
unfortunately the Patriots. I think the Raiders are going to
be better than people think. We'll talk more about them
here in a second. I was not surprised I was
(15:08):
on the Raiders. I took them at plus three. I
think Gino Smith and company are going to surprise some
people early in the defensive line, led by Max Crosby,
has the potential to do some real damage for Vegas.
So the Patriots losing has everybody in my neck of
the woods where I'm sitting right now in New Hampshire,
freaking out. But I'm not freaking out. I like your play.
(15:30):
I think the Patriots are one of the teams that
will make a big step from week one to week two.
And I think Drake may will make a big step
from week one to week two. I think he needs
to learn what this offense looks like under Josh McDaniels
in real time, under fire with the bullets flying, not
in preseason, not in practice, what it's like to quarterback
this offense when you're actually playing in a game. And
(15:52):
I think film study wise, I expect Drake man company
to make a big step forward. I like your play.
I like the Dolphins. Like the Patriots to beat the Dolphins,
even though historically speaking, it's been a house of horrors.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
Yeah, the trends I think are going to keep this low.
I don't think we're going to agree is move in
the direction of the Patriots at all.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah. No, I think that that's a huge point that
you're going to be able to see. People are going
to be a bit scared if you will to go
and say Okay, yeah, go jump on the Patriots and
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(17:36):
For me, and I had a hard time finding a
third one. I'll admit because the Raiders. If I had
to put one in here, it would be the Raiders
game on Monday Night. But we'll get to that in
a second. I really liked what I saw out of Tampa,
and I think their receiving core is going to be
really hard to stop and Baker Mayfield is going to
have a huge year for Tampa. I'm big on them
(17:56):
to win the division. At a couple different points in
that game, they proably should have lost to the Falcons
in Week one, but they found a way to win
on the road in a divisional situation. And so to me,
I go, you know what, I don't like the Texans
I haven't been high on them going into the year,
and I wasn't highing them last year. I'm not high
in them this year. There's a famous joke the people
(18:18):
who know me say that I can't pick Texans games.
That's like my blind spot. So fading the Texans in
Week two maybe a bad idea. But I'll take the
Buccaneers here on Monday night in the early game on
the road to surprise some people. I know it's a
travel for Tampa. Back to back road games always a fear,
but that extra day of rest I think might counteract
(18:40):
that back to back travel because they're playing on Monday night.
How do you feel about the Bucks on the road
to the Texans?
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Pretty good?
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Getting points with a Todd Bowles defense, bringing pressure from
unexpected places against the worst offensive line in the league.
That's what makes me like this game and getting points
with this one. Matt, and you know, like Baker Mayfield.
I do worry a little bit about the Buccaneers being
able to keep Baker Mayfield clean. If they don't have
(19:06):
Tristan Wurf's trying to help block the combination of Will
Anderson and Daniel Hunter, like that could be a problem.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
For Mayfield, but he's also a mobile and you know,
really resourceful quarterback.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Like I.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Respect the ability of Baker Mayfield to operate under duress
and make plays off script. So I'm I'm with you
on this lean like I like this one too. I
just I don't feel good about the Texans offense right now.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
No running game, terrible offensive line. C J.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
Stroud is, you know, kind of a pocket passer who
needs time back there to feel comfortable. And you know
he's got a lot of new receivers too. Just Nico
Collins is really the only incumbent there. So I'm kind
of with you on this one. I think there's value
with the points, all.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
Right, those are our three games, each of us like
early looks for week two. Let's talk survivor pools here.
If you advance past week one, you're alive for week two.
What's a play you would make here for a survivor pool?
Speaker 3 (20:06):
Pat oh Man, I know you've got the policy of
not betting divisional games, but.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
I'll say this, I feel like the schedulers in the
NFL wanted to become hunger game schedulers in week number
two because Week one did not have the chaos. I
sat for a better part of thirty minutes trying to
find what I would take this week in a survivor pool,
(20:33):
because I believe there are three games on the docket
that do not involve divisional opponents. Like it is if
you go by my philosophy, and it's not a unique one,
but to say we're not taking anyone inside of a
divisional game situation, you have three games basically to pick from.
It's brutal this week.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
And I understand the policy of not wanting to bet
divisional games, but I think the clear the layup this
week is the Ravens at home against the Browns. And
you know the way the Ravens lost that game in Buffalo,
you know, and the way their schedule early in the
season is so murderous, like this is the one stepping
(21:14):
stone game they have early in the season, and after
blowing that one at Buffalo, that they cannot afford to
blow this one. So the Browns are going to have
the Ravens full attention this week, and I just I
don't think this one's going to be any contests, So
that would be the first one. And I mean, if
you want to go out a division I guess the
one you have to look at is maybe Cardinals against
(21:36):
the Panthers.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
But I just don't feel.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Very much at ease betting the Cardinals, especially the Panthers
played kind of a disjointed game. They had that long
weather delay in Jacksonville. Like, I think they're a better
team than they showed against the Jaguars in Week one,
So that one makes me a little nervous. I think
you might have to sweat that one if you want
to go out a division and take the Cards.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
Yeah, I think you have to follow your philosophy to
be quite honest. I mean, the Ravens losing the first
two games of the regular season, including their home opener
against Joe Flacco in company, would be stunning. And I
know Joe Flacco has a great history in Baltimore, and
I understand this is a divisional game, but I find
(22:21):
it really hard to believe that the Baltimore Ravens would
lose as double digit favorites at home to the Cleveland Browns. Like,
if that knocks you out of a survivor pool, you
just tip your cap and say, Okay, you got me.
So I think your play is good. The only other
play that came to mind when I was looking at
this is just continue to fade the Titans and take
the Rams. But again, this is a West Coast team
(22:43):
going east. The Titans are horrible. The Rams are going
to be good. Their defense is going to be very good.
But I like what I saw out of cam Ward.
Cam Moore doesn't have a receiving corps. Like cam Moore
doesn't have people to catch the football. If he did,
the Titans would have won and beaten the Broncos because
cam Ward in the second half put the ball on
(23:03):
a platter on a te numerous times for Calvin Ridley
and company and they couldn't catch it. And that I
mean I was on the Broncos. All of my survivor
pools were on the Broncos, and I was petrified because
I was like, thank goodness, no one can catch Because
if the Titans had a receiving core, cam Ward can
only throw the ball, he can't catch it. So I'm
with you on the Ravens. I think that's a good
(23:25):
play if you don't want to do the division, I
think the Rams will win and beat the Titans. I
don't think the Titans are going to have that great
of a year. I liked what I saw out of
the Rams in week number one. Yes, it's on the road,
but I think the Titans are garbage, so I would
go with the Rams as the other play for that.
Is there anything else besides Ravens Browns that jumps off
(23:46):
the page to you?
Speaker 4 (23:47):
No?
Speaker 3 (23:48):
I mean, I think the Lions are going to come
back with a vengeance. But another divisional game, and I
you know, if I'm going to pick a divisional game,
I'd much rather just, yeah, a divisional game with a
really good team, you know, like burning a good team.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
It's gonna I would just rather pick the Ravens than
the Lions this week.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
And finally, we tell you a game that you should
bet right now before the number moves for you, Pat,
what's a game that you would fire on right now
here early in the week.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
It's Lions minus four and a half over the Bears, Matt,
And honestly, I'm surprised the numbers this low after the
Bears collapsing against the Vikings and blowing a game they
shouldn't have blown on Monday night.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
And you know, the Lions laid an egg in Week one.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
But this has been this has become a culture team
under Dan Campbell, like they just a strong team culture,
and I feel like culture teams rarely play two poor
games in a row, and they'll often come back with
sort of a vengeance after one bad game in a
one bad game. So the Bears just can't be in
a great headspace after blowing that game at home. And
(24:56):
I mean, I still think the Lions are really sound
across the board at a good offense. I'm surprised they
couldn't run the ball in the Packers, solid passing game,
good defense. I just I think they're gonna make a
much better showing of it in week two than they
did in Week one and handle the Bears pretty easily
at home. So four and a half, I do think
this money is going to move towards the Lions at
(25:18):
four and a half, Like I expect this to maybe
open up at like five and a half or six.
So I'm jumping on the Lions now.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
My only concern with that is whether the Lions offense
is actually broken in that does Ben Johnson's return does
that play some type of like voodoo magic distraction type
of thing here with that team, because that's the guy
that was calling the plays and that's the guy who
had the offense clicking, and Jared Goff feels like his
ex girlfriend's in the building and he's all distracted. Like
(25:49):
that's my only concern with it, because on paper, I
think the Lions should win the game going away. And
as the as the night went on, you saw the
regression of Caleb Williams. The first quarter, he was tremendous,
and the second quarter things got a little bit shaky,
and then everything just collapsed in the third and the
fourth quarter. And you could say that that was Brian
(26:09):
Flores's defense with the Vikings just kind of figuring out
what was happening for Ben Johnson, but I think a
lot of it was also that Caleb just started to
throw the ball all over the place. And look, I
mean he had touchdown passes wide open that he overthrew
by four or five yards in the second half late
in that game. That could have made it more of
a tighter football game. So I'm not inclined to like
(26:33):
go and run and jump on this and say, hey,
this Bears team is going to go to Detroit on
the road, hostile environment after the team didn't play well
back to back divisional games for the Lions. It wouldn't
just be an zero and two start for the Lions
record wise, it'd be zero to two in the division
for Detroit to start the year. So I like your play.
(26:57):
I'm going to take the points. With the Raiders at
home at three and a half. Now, I think the
hook is important here. The Chargers and the Raiders historically
have played one score games and they've played some unbelievable
Barn Berner coming down to the wire last second type
of contests. Home opener Monday Night, Allegiance Stadium the Chargers.
(27:19):
This is one of the few teams that will come
to Vegas that do not bring road fans. There's actually
going to be a home environment for the Raiders here
on Monday Night. It's hard to imagine, but when the
Chiefs show up or the Broncos show up, that's a
road game for the Raiders. Not so with the Chargers
showing up. The Raiders also will have to feel really
(27:42):
good about themselves as they head home with a one
to zero record, and that means people in Vegas will
pay attention and go, oh, Monday night, let's go to
the game. There's going to be a pretty cool atmosphere
on Monday night in Vegas for this football game. And
I know the Chargers looked really good against the Chiefs,
but that's travel in a national travel and now you're
going on the road. It's a quick little trip to Vegas,
(28:03):
but it's still a road trip. Still not your home
and your bed that you're sleeping in. You're getting up
and playing a football game against a team that maybe
better than people think. Three and a half is important,
But I would take the Raiders at plus three and
a half. How do you feel about Vegas at home?
Speaker 3 (28:17):
I like the narratives you laid out, Matt, and you
know the fact that this has been like there have
been a lot of tight games in this series historically.
But I just talked about Dan Campbell as a culture
builder with the Detroit Lions. I think Pete Carroll's going
to be the same way for the Raiders and you
can kind of see it on the sidelines with the
way he interacted with players in Week one and that
(28:37):
game against the Patriots. So I like this one, you know,
I don't I don't know if I have the guts
to put my own money on it. I know in
a couple of pools where I have to pick every
every game so far, I've locked that one in early
as the Raiders being my play in that one.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
But you know, we'll see you might you might have
talked me into that.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
One, Matt. If the Raiders win this game, they open
up two and zero, I think people are gonna go,
wait a minute, hold on a second. And I made
the point in the preseason that the Raiders might be
the best four seed in football because I don't think
they're as good as the Chiefs, Broncos are Chargers once
at the end of the year, I don't think they're
going to be as good. I think their secondary has
got some issues, and you know, I just think their
(29:18):
defense is not going to be as good. As we
go through the year, they'll be exposed a bit. But
early in the year, getting off to a really fast start,
you can start to build culture. Like you mentioned with
Pete Carroll, guys start to believe and look, Gino Smith
that this was why I took the Raiders last week.
It's because Gino Smith has been sort of like this,
like disrespected quarterback in the NFL for a really long time,
(29:41):
and that fits the narrative of the Raiders. I mean
that that's their whole deal, that we're disrespected and nobody
respects us and no one pays attention to us. And
I've bet every year on the Raiders to go over
their win total in the last three years it's hit.
I didn't bet it this year because I didn't fully believe,
but I'm like, I'm going to bet them week by
week and I probably will wind up more profitable because
(30:04):
I do think this team's going to surprise some people
and to be a home dog in primetime on Monday
Night Football. I think the Raiders are gonna have a
chance to show some people some stuff. And I like
Harball a lot, I like Herbert a lot, but I
felt like the love was maybe a little bit over
the top for the win over the Chiefs and just
what Herbert's going to look like this year and MVP
(30:25):
candidate Herbert and like, okay, hold on a second, like
it's a long year, and maybe more on what the
Chiefs were doing and what they looked like in Week
number one in Brazil than what the Chargers necessarily did.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
So there is like there is the concern that maybe
the Raiders have to play this one without brock Bowers.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
YEP, and the sprain mcl I think that's what he has.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
But the nice thing is, like if Bowers is ruled out,
you're probably getting another point tacked onto this this number,
I mean, like fair, we're talking about lock it in
now numbers, but like I could potentially see this one moving.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
You know's not horrible. I mean, no, he was good
in week FO.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
They've got a good backup, so I know Bowers, but
Bowers wasn't a huge part of the offense. I think
it's all it's about Genty. To me, it's about a
running game and Gino Smith, and I felt like the receivers. Again,
it could be the Patriots without Christian Gonzales, but that
was a team that the Patriots secondary they thought that
was gonna be one of the strengths of the team.
And the receivers were open all over the field for
(31:25):
the Raiders, and they had big plays, Gino throwing the
ball down the field with play action with Genty. So
I think you're gonna see a similar situation. The Chargers
defense is definitely better than the Patriots, there's no debating that.
But I think with the chance to watch what they
did against the Chiefs, I think they'll score. And again,
these teams have played historical games that come down to,
(31:46):
you know, three points or six points, and I think
taking three and a half is a good play and
then if you need to get out of it in game,
you might be able to. So I expect a pretty
fun game on Monday nights. And for me on the
East Coast, my gosh, ten o'clock start time, ten o'clocks
to our time. Oh my gosh, it's gonna kill me
to be up. It's gonna be a one am Monday night.
(32:07):
We're taping this next week, next Tuesday. This is gonna
be a bro I'm gonna be, you know, taping my
eyelids open, trying to get myself set. So bring the coffee, Matt,
bring you absolutely absolutely, guys. That is week number two.
If you like what you see, hit the like button,
subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. All of our
content comes at you. We are fire hosing this this year. Guys.
(32:27):
We're giving you plays, picks, thoughts on so many different plays.
If you haven't gone and downloaded the new Betting Pros
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(32:50):
I am at Parultiple. Talk to you next week for
Week three early looks at the NFL and survivor pool
picks here with Betting Pros.
Speaker 4 (32:57):
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What's up, guys? How are you welcome into Week two?
It's our early best bets looks at the NFL and
our survivor pools. He'th fitsy, I'm perolt. I'm playing hurt.
It's two guys talking football where baseball hats today? Thanks
for watching, everybody. We hope to give you some early
looks as to what the NFL is gonna look like
and keep you alive in those survivor pools. Fitsy, how'd
(00:23):
the week one go for you?
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Yeah? It was. It was a mixed bag, Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
You know enough that I basically lost the juice and
you know, kind of a five hundred week.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
What about you? How is the betting? And how's the
shoulder winner?
Speaker 3 (00:36):
You're gonna be able to give the Red Sox five innings.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
It's gonna be a while before I can throw anything.
The shoulder is okay, it's it's it's a pictorial tendon
tear surgery that I have so our had. So it's
been an interesting week. I'm not gonna lie. It's uh,
it's coming along. It's definitely different to sit here and
not have the ability to use your right arm. But uh,
we're we're gonna battle ruined. Luckily, I don't dig ditches
(01:01):
for a living, so I'm okay to just sit and talk.
So that's our job here. Week one for me went
pretty well. The Vikings game kind of tapped off what
was a pretty good week for me. To come back
by JJ McCarthy and company in the second half definitely
kind of turned the tide for me, and he played
pretty well. I had him for a couple of touchdown
tosses at plus money, so that was good to get
(01:21):
him to go and complete that. So overall, a good
first week. But what was your biggest surprise? What score
stuck out to you and made you go, huh, that
didn't go the way I thought it was going to go.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Yeah, I mean, it's got to be my green Bay
Packers thumping the Detroit Lions pretty decidedly, because Detroit had
really had their number six and one over excuse me,
five and one for the Lions over the last three
years with Dan Campbell just sort of you know, having
it over Matt lafleur Man. I mean, like women, it
(01:54):
snaps for Micah Parsons. But even when he was not
on the field, the green Bay defense was just lights agreed.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
For me, it was the scoring for the Jets and
the Steelers. I didn't see that coming. That was my
worst bet of the week. I had the under in that.
I bet that early. I thought thirty nine was going
to be good. I expected a ten to seven football
game when we got thirty four to thirty two. So
I was not expecting Aaron Rodgers to throw for four touchdowns,
(02:22):
to throw for over two hundred and forty yards and
no interceptions in his debut, and no one has done
that in sixty years in the NFL. So that was
an eye opener to me. We'll get into that. Week
two for the Steelers here coming up, all right, So
the format for this, guys, We're gonna give you three
bets each that we like right now for week two,
(02:43):
then a survivor play that you guys can look to
lock in, and then a bet you should make right
now as the numbers very well might move on you
in a way to get the best of the numbers
here early in the week. So pad for you bet
number one. What are you looking at for Week two?
Speaker 3 (02:59):
You know I I'm looking at the Commanders and the
Packers on Thursday night going under forty eight and a half.
The Packers have given up seventeen point nine points a
game over their last ten, dating back to last year
and including their playoff game. They just played their first
game with Micah Parsons and held the Lions, who have
one of the best offenses in the league, to thirteen
(03:20):
points and four yards per play. Packers' defensive coordinator Jeff
Hafley is just a sharp guy. He is a future
head coach in the NFL. Giving him Micah Parsons was
just unfair, Like Green Bay is going to have one
of the best defenses in the league this year. Also,
the Green Bay offense operated at a snail's pace in
(03:41):
Week one, the fourth slowest pace in the league. They
were run heavy again, just as they were last year.
So I think the Packers could be kind of an
undermachine this year. And you know the Commanders. They just
won their opener over the Giants twenty one to six.
Their defense looked good, So betting the under here mostly
about the Packers with their excellent d and their slow paced,
(04:03):
run heavy offense, but also about the defenses just generally
being ahead of the offenses across the league. Matt, we
saw a lot of unders hit in week one, and
I think weirdly enough, I'm pretty sure that of the
early afternoon starts on Sunday, Jet Steelers was the only
one that went over.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Yeah, three games in total wound up going over in
week number one, so heavy on the Unders. Defense is
playing way ahead of the offenses. I don't know if
that continues in week two, but I do think the
Packers are going to shut down the Commanders. And that's
the same game I'm looking at as well. And I
don't know if it's because it's your team you don't
want to take them, but I think the Packers are
(04:41):
going to cover that three and a half point spread.
And I know that the books are making you stop
and go. You're sure you want to bet more than three,
and that's why they hook that. They put the hook
on it to kind of keep people off of it.
But I don't think the Commanders are going to move
the football. And I think this is where Micah parsons
in week two. You can build a pack kids ready
to go for him to chase down a very mobile
(05:03):
quarterback and get Daniels to the ground and not allow
him to beat you with his legs. Look, I think
the Giants are a bad football team, and I think
the Giants are going to be a bad football team
all year. I don't care who plays quarterback for the Giants.
That offense is not going to be successful week to week.
So I know they only scored six points. I don't
(05:24):
think Commanders defense is any good. I think the Packers
are going to move the football on that defense. I
think they'll run the football on that defense. I like
your team to go to two and oh here. And
there's going to be a lot of talk about this
Packers team in what they may look like coming up,
say January February. They've got the quarterback, They've got the receivers. Now,
(05:46):
how'd you like Matthew Golden's debut in a Packer uniform?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
A little quieter than I would have liked. Hopefully he'll
be a little.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
More active in the weeks to come, but we kind
of knew it was going to be an ensemble cast
of pass catchers for Green Bay. One thing I'll add, man,
the reason I may eventually wind up betting the Packers
and tailing you on this one is it's just a
more comfortable setup for the Packers. They opened at home,
and they get to stay at home in the short week.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Yeah, Commanders have to travel in the short week.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
So yeah, and it's quick right week one, week two? Like,
think about when you started a new workout regiment, like
what your body feels like after the first week or
the first couple of days. You're like, oh, playing your
first NFL football game and then having to turn around
and play on a Thursday night on the road in
a hostile environment with Micah Parsons and Jordan Love. It's
(06:35):
a recipe for success. I'm actually surprised the number is
not higher than three and a half, to be quite honest,
and I think it's just in the market at the moment.
People think the Commanders are going to be the same
Commander's team as last year. I don't agree with it,
and I think the Packers are going to be a
much better team than people think. We may look back
on this number in a couple of weeks and go man.
We got the Packers at three and a half on
(06:56):
Thursday night against the Commanders. That was a step of
a price. So I like the Commanders. Sorry, I like
the Packers zero over the Commanders lay in three and
a half for number two game for you which.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
Is it another under Cowboys Giants under forty four and
a half, And I'm just going to keep betting unders
on Giants games until I lose one. They just lost
to the Commander's twenty one six. The Giants are going
to be an under machine this year. Their offense stinks.
It's possible we see them make a QB change as
early as this week. They don't have Andrew Thomas, their
(07:30):
star left tackle. I don't think they're supposed to get
him back this week, and the rest of the offensive
line is terrible. And on defense, the Giants have Dexter Lawrence,
Brian Burns, Cavon Thibodeau, Abdul Carter wreaking havoc up front.
The Cowboys had a respectable offensive showing against a good
Eagles defense in Week one, although the Eagles lost Jalen
(07:50):
Carter before the game and that one for the spitting episode.
But this is still a pretty one dimensional Dallas offense
with very little punch in the running game. Dak Prescott
is gonna have to try to make plays against this
Giants defense that can really put the heat on quarterback.
So I think this one plays under forty four and
a half.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Yeah, I'm gonna trail you on this. I know I'll
be on the under. There is a pretty good chance
I'm gonna be on the Cowboys as well. Early in
the year, I'm gonna fade the Giants. I'm on the
under five and a half wins for the Giants. I've
been down to them all summer, and nothing happened in
week one that led me to go, Yeah, I want
to go ahead and take the Giants at any number.
(08:30):
And I know eight is heavy, and so that's why
I wouldn't say bet it right away, Like, let's watch
the number a bit and see if you can wind
up getting a better number. Maybe the pro money comes
in on the Giants, because the professionals can help themselves
when it comes to plus money and plus eight, so
they take the Giants, and maybe we get a seven
and a half or a seven on the Cowboys. But
(08:52):
most likely I'm gonna wind up being on the Cowboys.
But from an under perspective, yeah, I mean, the only
fear is that the game gets away from the Giants
and it turns into like, you know, a thirty eight
seven type of game, and it just gets really really ugly.
On New York if there's a lot of interceptions, you know,
if from an under perspective, I'd rather have Russ play
(09:13):
than Jackson Dart just because the interception potential is super
high for Jackson Dart, So I don't want the turnovers
and the short fields and the easy points for Dallas.
So that would be my only concern with the under.
But if it is going to be, like Double said,
if he's going to play at least to start with
Russell Wilson, yeah, I like your bet with the under
(09:34):
a lot. I'm gonna talk about We talked going on
the road, and I think Seattle is going to have
a tough time here going to Pittsburgh in their home
opener with what we just saw out of this offense
with renegade in full throat, because a lot of Pittsburgh
Steeler fans went into Week one going I don't know
about Aaron Rodgers, I don't know about this team, and
(09:56):
I know the defense gave up a bunch of points,
but I feel like that to steel can fix the
defense pretty quickly. And I'm not in love with what
I saw out of Sam Darnold in that Seahawks offense
and look big jumps from week one to week two,
but that's a defensive minded team. I don't mind the under,
but I'm a little gun shy because the Steelers just
burn me. And what happens if Aaron Rodgers puts up
(10:17):
another big game against the defense that we think is
going to be pretty good. So I have not bet
the under yet in this game, but I like the
home Steelers laying just a field goal against a team
going across the country in week number two for the
Steelers and the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Yeah, that's my favorite part of this is that these
Seahawks have to travel coast to coast early in the season.
So I don't know what to make of the Seahawks matn.
I certainly expected a better offensive showing in Week one
with Clint Kubiak, who an offensive coordinator I generally like
and have faith in. They just look kind of ragged
(10:56):
at home against the Niners in Week one. One thing, though,
like I expect their running game to get going a
little bit. I think the running game usually works for
the koobi ACX, whether it's Clinton or his dad Gary
back in the day, and the Pittsburgh run defense did
not look that great in Week one against the Jets.
They let Breece Hall have kind of a big day
(11:16):
on the ground. It seemed like they were missing Keanu
Bent and their their nose tackle. So I'm a little
nervous about this one, Matt. I don't know if I'm
going to be on it. I'm not betting Seattle, but
I don't know if I have enough faith in the
Steelers yet with Aaron Rodgers to take this on.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
You like Seattle, You liked him last week. You liked him,
and then we talked in week one. God, you like Seattle.
I need to see more out of the Seahawks before
I can get to your side. Very clear, Sam Arnold,
I mean, I love Kevin O'Connell. I love the Vikings.
JJ McCarthy had a bad first half, and then JJ
McCarthy played his butt off in the second half. It
(11:57):
gets the Bears on the road and it was like, Okay,
the coach got to the kid, calmed him down, focused him,
got him, you know, in the right mindset. I don't
know if there's anybody like that on the Seattle Seahawks
sidelines with Sam Darnold, so on the road to Pittsburgh,
really tough place to play, in the Steelers defense gave
up over thirty points in Week one. I don't think
that happens again. Coming up in week number two for
(12:20):
game number three. For you pat where are you going?
Speaker 3 (12:23):
I can't wait to hear your take on this one, Matts,
because I am taking your Patriots on the money line,
going to Miami on the road.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
The Patriots plus one oh September in September September.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
Uh oh, Matt.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
This is all about the Dolphins, who are an early
candidate for the Disaster Team of twenty twenty five. I mean,
they were just smoked by the Colts in their season
opener thirty three to eight, and none of us are
really expecting the Colts to be world beaters this year.
The Colts lift gained the Dolphins four hundred and eighteen
yards to two hundred and eleven yards in that game.
(12:58):
To a tongue of I Loo looked awful at quarterback
for Miami. The Dolphins defense made Daniel Freaking Jones look
like a star. I don't think this was a one
off bad performance. Like the Dolphins have been giving off
terrible vibes for a while. I don't think Mike McDaniel
is going to last the season as head coach. And
you know, the Patriots weren't exactly world beaters. In Week one,
(13:21):
they lost their home opener to the Raiders, but the
game was at least competitive throughout. I know, man, I'm
curious about your expectations for the Raiders. I don't know
that I'm expecting a lot of wins this year, but
I do expect them to play respectably all year under
Mike Vrabel. And you know I will happily take them
at plus money to beat this Miami team.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Yeah, it is interesting. The first move came on Miami.
I think that was a historical move because generally speaking,
the Patriots when they play in September in Miami melt
it's normally one hundred degrees. They put the opposing team
in the sun side of the field. Dolphins normally are
very competitive. And then the Patriots returned the favor in
December when the Dolphins must go to New England and
(14:04):
play in the freezing cold. So when it's scheduled out
like this, generally the Patriots split with the Dolphins. However,
effort to go back just a Pop Warner football, what's
the one thing you control and its effort, and there
was no effort there for the Dolphins. In Week number one,
Daniel Jones scored on his first seven possessions. That's Daniel
(14:26):
Jones from the New York Giants scored on seven consecutive
possessions to start his career with the Indianapolis Colts. If
I'm a Dolphin fan, I'm thinking to myself, Okay, how
do we get out of this? And when do we
fire the head coach and try to make something of
this season? Because you can't have to fighting with receivers.
(14:46):
Tarreek Hall was already yelling at people the Patriots should
have Christian Gonzalez back. I think they held him out
knowing who they're playing. In week number two, saying okay,
let's hopefully get past the Raiders without Christian Gonzales didn't happen,
unfortunately the Patriots. I think the Raiders are going to
be better than people think. We'll talk more about them
here in a second. I was not surprised I was
(15:08):
on the Raiders. I took them at plus three. I
think Gino Smith and company are going to surprise some
people early in the defensive line, led by Max Crosby,
has the potential to do some real damage for Vegas.
So the Patriots losing has everybody in my neck of
the woods where I'm sitting right now in New Hampshire,
freaking out. But I'm not freaking out. I like your play.
(15:30):
I think the Patriots are one of the teams that
will make a big step from week one to week two.
And I think Drake may will make a big step
from week one to week two. I think he needs
to learn what this offense looks like under Josh McDaniels
in real time, under fire with the bullets flying, not
in preseason, not in practice, what it's like to quarterback
this offense when you're actually playing in a game. And
(15:52):
I think film study wise, I expect Drake man company
to make a big step forward. I like your play.
I like the Dolphins. Like the Patriots to beat the Dolphins,
even though historically speaking, it's been a house of horrors.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
Yeah, the trends I think are going to keep this low.
I don't think we're going to agree is move in
the direction of the Patriots at all.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah. No, I think that that's a huge point that
you're going to be able to see. People are going
to be a bit scared if you will to go
and say Okay, yeah, go jump on the Patriots and
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(17:36):
For me, and I had a hard time finding a
third one. I'll admit because the Raiders. If I had
to put one in here, it would be the Raiders
game on Monday Night. But we'll get to that in
a second. I really liked what I saw out of Tampa,
and I think their receiving core is going to be
really hard to stop and Baker Mayfield is going to
have a huge year for Tampa. I'm big on them
(17:56):
to win the division. At a couple different points in
that game, they proably should have lost to the Falcons
in Week one, but they found a way to win
on the road in a divisional situation. And so to me,
I go, you know what, I don't like the Texans
I haven't been high on them going into the year,
and I wasn't highing them last year. I'm not high
in them this year. There's a famous joke the people
(18:18):
who know me say that I can't pick Texans games.
That's like my blind spot. So fading the Texans in
Week two maybe a bad idea. But I'll take the
Buccaneers here on Monday night in the early game on
the road to surprise some people. I know it's a
travel for Tampa. Back to back road games always a fear,
but that extra day of rest I think might counteract
(18:40):
that back to back travel because they're playing on Monday night.
How do you feel about the Bucks on the road
to the Texans?
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Pretty good?
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Getting points with a Todd Bowles defense, bringing pressure from
unexpected places against the worst offensive line in the league.
That's what makes me like this game and getting points
with this one. Matt, and you know, like Baker Mayfield.
I do worry a little bit about the Buccaneers being
able to keep Baker Mayfield clean. If they don't have
(19:06):
Tristan Wurf's trying to help block the combination of Will
Anderson and Daniel Hunter, like that could be a problem.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
For Mayfield, but he's also a mobile and you know,
really resourceful quarterback.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Like I.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Respect the ability of Baker Mayfield to operate under duress
and make plays off script. So I'm I'm with you
on this lean like I like this one too. I
just I don't feel good about the Texans offense right now.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
No running game, terrible offensive line. C J.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
Stroud is, you know, kind of a pocket passer who
needs time back there to feel comfortable. And you know
he's got a lot of new receivers too. Just Nico
Collins is really the only incumbent there. So I'm kind
of with you on this one. I think there's value
with the points, all.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
Right, those are our three games, each of us like
early looks for week two. Let's talk survivor pools here.
If you advance past week one, you're alive for week two.
What's a play you would make here for a survivor pool?
Speaker 3 (20:06):
Pat oh Man, I know you've got the policy of
not betting divisional games, but.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
I'll say this, I feel like the schedulers in the
NFL wanted to become hunger game schedulers in week number
two because Week one did not have the chaos. I
sat for a better part of thirty minutes trying to
find what I would take this week in a survivor pool,
(20:33):
because I believe there are three games on the docket
that do not involve divisional opponents. Like it is if
you go by my philosophy, and it's not a unique one,
but to say we're not taking anyone inside of a
divisional game situation, you have three games basically to pick from.
It's brutal this week.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
And I understand the policy of not wanting to bet
divisional games, but I think the clear the layup this
week is the Ravens at home against the Browns. And
you know the way the Ravens lost that game in Buffalo,
you know, and the way their schedule early in the
season is so murderous, like this is the one stepping
(21:14):
stone game they have early in the season, and after
blowing that one at Buffalo, that they cannot afford to
blow this one. So the Browns are going to have
the Ravens full attention this week, and I just I
don't think this one's going to be any contests, So
that would be the first one. And I mean, if
you want to go out a division I guess the
one you have to look at is maybe Cardinals against
(21:36):
the Panthers.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
But I just don't feel.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Very much at ease betting the Cardinals, especially the Panthers
played kind of a disjointed game. They had that long
weather delay in Jacksonville. Like, I think they're a better
team than they showed against the Jaguars in Week one,
So that one makes me a little nervous. I think
you might have to sweat that one if you want
to go out a division and take the Cards.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
Yeah, I think you have to follow your philosophy to
be quite honest. I mean, the Ravens losing the first
two games of the regular season, including their home opener
against Joe Flacco in company, would be stunning. And I
know Joe Flacco has a great history in Baltimore, and
I understand this is a divisional game, but I find
(22:21):
it really hard to believe that the Baltimore Ravens would
lose as double digit favorites at home to the Cleveland Browns. Like,
if that knocks you out of a survivor pool, you
just tip your cap and say, Okay, you got me.
So I think your play is good. The only other
play that came to mind when I was looking at
this is just continue to fade the Titans and take
the Rams. But again, this is a West Coast team
(22:43):
going east. The Titans are horrible. The Rams are going
to be good. Their defense is going to be very good.
But I like what I saw out of cam Ward.
Cam Moore doesn't have a receiving corps. Like cam Moore
doesn't have people to catch the football. If he did,
the Titans would have won and beaten the Broncos because
cam Ward in the second half put the ball on
(23:03):
a platter on a te numerous times for Calvin Ridley
and company and they couldn't catch it. And that I
mean I was on the Broncos. All of my survivor
pools were on the Broncos, and I was petrified because
I was like, thank goodness, no one can catch Because
if the Titans had a receiving core, cam Ward can
only throw the ball, he can't catch it. So I'm
with you on the Ravens. I think that's a good
(23:25):
play if you don't want to do the division, I
think the Rams will win and beat the Titans. I
don't think the Titans are going to have that great
of a year. I liked what I saw out of
the Rams in week number one. Yes, it's on the road,
but I think the Titans are garbage, so I would
go with the Rams as the other play for that.
Is there anything else besides Ravens Browns that jumps off
(23:46):
the page to you?
Speaker 4 (23:47):
No?
Speaker 3 (23:48):
I mean, I think the Lions are going to come
back with a vengeance. But another divisional game, and I
you know, if I'm going to pick a divisional game,
I'd much rather just, yeah, a divisional game with a
really good team, you know, like burning a good team.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
It's gonna I would just rather pick the Ravens than
the Lions this week.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
And finally, we tell you a game that you should
bet right now before the number moves for you, Pat,
what's a game that you would fire on right now
here early in the week.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
It's Lions minus four and a half over the Bears, Matt,
And honestly, I'm surprised the numbers this low after the
Bears collapsing against the Vikings and blowing a game they
shouldn't have blown on Monday night.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
And you know, the Lions laid an egg in Week one.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
But this has been this has become a culture team
under Dan Campbell, like they just a strong team culture,
and I feel like culture teams rarely play two poor
games in a row, and they'll often come back with
sort of a vengeance after one bad game in a
one bad game. So the Bears just can't be in
a great headspace after blowing that game at home. And
(24:56):
I mean, I still think the Lions are really sound
across the board at a good offense. I'm surprised they
couldn't run the ball in the Packers, solid passing game,
good defense. I just I think they're gonna make a
much better showing of it in week two than they
did in Week one and handle the Bears pretty easily
at home. So four and a half, I do think
this money is going to move towards the Lions at
(25:18):
four and a half, Like I expect this to maybe
open up at like five and a half or six.
So I'm jumping on the Lions now.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
My only concern with that is whether the Lions offense
is actually broken in that does Ben Johnson's return does
that play some type of like voodoo magic distraction type
of thing here with that team, because that's the guy
that was calling the plays and that's the guy who
had the offense clicking, and Jared Goff feels like his
ex girlfriend's in the building and he's all distracted. Like
(25:49):
that's my only concern with it, because on paper, I
think the Lions should win the game going away. And
as the as the night went on, you saw the
regression of Caleb Williams. The first quarter, he was tremendous,
and the second quarter things got a little bit shaky,
and then everything just collapsed in the third and the
fourth quarter. And you could say that that was Brian
(26:09):
Flores's defense with the Vikings just kind of figuring out
what was happening for Ben Johnson, but I think a
lot of it was also that Caleb just started to
throw the ball all over the place. And look, I
mean he had touchdown passes wide open that he overthrew
by four or five yards in the second half late
in that game. That could have made it more of
a tighter football game. So I'm not inclined to like
(26:33):
go and run and jump on this and say, hey,
this Bears team is going to go to Detroit on
the road, hostile environment after the team didn't play well
back to back divisional games for the Lions. It wouldn't
just be an zero and two start for the Lions
record wise, it'd be zero to two in the division
for Detroit to start the year. So I like your play.
(26:57):
I'm going to take the points. With the Raiders at
home at three and a half. Now, I think the
hook is important here. The Chargers and the Raiders historically
have played one score games and they've played some unbelievable
Barn Berner coming down to the wire last second type
of contests. Home opener Monday Night, Allegiance Stadium the Chargers.
(27:19):
This is one of the few teams that will come
to Vegas that do not bring road fans. There's actually
going to be a home environment for the Raiders here
on Monday Night. It's hard to imagine, but when the
Chiefs show up or the Broncos show up, that's a
road game for the Raiders. Not so with the Chargers
showing up. The Raiders also will have to feel really
(27:42):
good about themselves as they head home with a one
to zero record, and that means people in Vegas will
pay attention and go, oh, Monday night, let's go to
the game. There's going to be a pretty cool atmosphere
on Monday night in Vegas for this football game. And
I know the Chargers looked really good against the Chiefs,
but that's travel in a national travel and now you're
going on the road. It's a quick little trip to Vegas,
(28:03):
but it's still a road trip. Still not your home
and your bed that you're sleeping in. You're getting up
and playing a football game against a team that maybe
better than people think. Three and a half is important,
But I would take the Raiders at plus three and
a half. How do you feel about Vegas at home?
Speaker 3 (28:17):
I like the narratives you laid out, Matt, and you
know the fact that this has been like there have
been a lot of tight games in this series historically.
But I just talked about Dan Campbell as a culture
builder with the Detroit Lions. I think Pete Carroll's going
to be the same way for the Raiders and you
can kind of see it on the sidelines with the
way he interacted with players in Week one and that
(28:37):
game against the Patriots. So I like this one, you know,
I don't I don't know if I have the guts
to put my own money on it. I know in
a couple of pools where I have to pick every
every game so far, I've locked that one in early
as the Raiders being my play in that one.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
But you know, we'll see you might you might have
talked me into that.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
One, Matt. If the Raiders win this game, they open
up two and zero, I think people are gonna go,
wait a minute, hold on a second. And I made
the point in the preseason that the Raiders might be
the best four seed in football because I don't think
they're as good as the Chiefs, Broncos are Chargers once
at the end of the year, I don't think they're
going to be as good. I think their secondary has
got some issues, and you know, I just think their
(29:18):
defense is not going to be as good. As we
go through the year, they'll be exposed a bit. But
early in the year, getting off to a really fast start,
you can start to build culture. Like you mentioned with
Pete Carroll, guys start to believe and look, Gino Smith
that this was why I took the Raiders last week.
It's because Gino Smith has been sort of like this,
like disrespected quarterback in the NFL for a really long time,
(29:41):
and that fits the narrative of the Raiders. I mean
that that's their whole deal, that we're disrespected and nobody
respects us and no one pays attention to us. And
I've bet every year on the Raiders to go over
their win total in the last three years it's hit.
I didn't bet it this year because I didn't fully believe,
but I'm like, I'm going to bet them week by
week and I probably will wind up more profitable because
(30:04):
I do think this team's going to surprise some people
and to be a home dog in primetime on Monday
Night Football. I think the Raiders are gonna have a
chance to show some people some stuff. And I like
Harball a lot, I like Herbert a lot, but I
felt like the love was maybe a little bit over
the top for the win over the Chiefs and just
what Herbert's going to look like this year and MVP
(30:25):
candidate Herbert and like, okay, hold on a second, like
it's a long year, and maybe more on what the
Chiefs were doing and what they looked like in Week
number one in Brazil than what the Chargers necessarily did.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
So there is like there is the concern that maybe
the Raiders have to play this one without brock Bowers.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
YEP, and the sprain mcl I think that's what he has.
Speaker 3 (30:45):
But the nice thing is, like if Bowers is ruled out,
you're probably getting another point tacked onto this this number,
I mean, like fair, we're talking about lock it in
now numbers, but like I could potentially see this one moving.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
You know's not horrible. I mean, no, he was good
in week FO.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
They've got a good backup, so I know Bowers, but
Bowers wasn't a huge part of the offense. I think
it's all it's about Genty. To me, it's about a
running game and Gino Smith, and I felt like the receivers. Again,
it could be the Patriots without Christian Gonzales, but that
was a team that the Patriots secondary they thought that
was gonna be one of the strengths of the team.
And the receivers were open all over the field for
(31:25):
the Raiders, and they had big plays, Gino throwing the
ball down the field with play action with Genty. So
I think you're gonna see a similar situation. The Chargers
defense is definitely better than the Patriots, there's no debating that.
But I think with the chance to watch what they
did against the Chiefs, I think they'll score. And again,
these teams have played historical games that come down to,
(31:46):
you know, three points or six points, and I think
taking three and a half is a good play and
then if you need to get out of it in game,
you might be able to. So I expect a pretty
fun game on Monday nights. And for me on the
East Coast, my gosh, ten o'clock start time, ten o'clocks
to our time. Oh my gosh, it's gonna kill me
to be up. It's gonna be a one am Monday night.
(32:07):
We're taping this next week, next Tuesday. This is gonna
be a bro I'm gonna be, you know, taping my
eyelids open, trying to get myself set. So bring the coffee, Matt,
bring you absolutely absolutely, guys. That is week number two.
If you like what you see, hit the like button,
subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. All of our
content comes at you. We are fire hosing this this year. Guys.
(32:27):
We're giving you plays, picks, thoughts on so many different plays.
If you haven't gone and downloaded the new Betting Pros
app go and do so right now. It's all shiny
and new picks, plays and stats and information. We've got
curated picks available for you guys as well. It's available
for you wherever you get your apps. Going download the
new Betting Pros app right now. He is Pattist Morris.
(32:50):
I am at Parultiple. Talk to you next week for
Week three early looks at the NFL and survivor pool
picks here with Betting Pros.
Speaker 4 (32:57):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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