September 30, 2025 • 31 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite Week 5 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Week 4 Recap - 0:00:25
Rams vs 49ers - 0:01:16
Vikings -3.5 vs. Browns - 0:05:17
Seahawks -3 vs. Buccaneers - 0:08:32
BettingPros App - 0:11:46
Patriots +7.5 at Bills - 0:12:22
Chiefs -3 at Jaguars - 0:17:27
Hard Rock Bets - 0:19:42
Detroit Lions & Arizona Cardinals Survivor Picks - 0:20:45
BettingPros Pick Tracker - 0:26:12
Lock It In Early - 0:26:58
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
What's up, guys? How are you welcome into week five?
It is time for early bets, Early prediction, Live Movement
Survivor plays in more. He is pepits Morse, I'matt Peraltan
we He had to look at the first week in
the NFL with buys pat. It's a smaller schedule and
than what we're used to seeing. But how are you
on this Tuesday as we look forward to happening with
that from Thursday and Sunday.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, doing well, Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
The Broncos helped ensure that I wasn't gonna have a
losing week, close to a losing week, but the Broncos
kind of saved me last night. So feeling good going
into week five. Yeah, shorter slaves the byes already. Man,
seems like the season just started and here we are
in week five.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Bye weeks.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Yeah, last night saved me too. Monday night, I had
the over in the first game and then I had
the Broncos big and took JK. Dobbins over laddered it
a little bit for his rushing totals. So that was
a nice little pick me up after a pretty bad
Sunday for me. So I was excited about what happened there.
I don't know how the Lions game didn't go over
for us. I just don't. I don't get it. We
(01:00):
talked about it on Sunday. It fell forty four. I
laid forty four and a half, forty four and a half,
and we got hooked on that total. So I don't
understand how we lost that. But that's fine, that's gambling.
And we move on here to what we're going to
see today in this week. Let's start with Thursday, because
that's one of the games that I would say you
should fire on right now. It is a divisional game.
(01:22):
It is the Rams against a banged up forty nine
Ers team. Nick Bosa is gone, but I mean the
quarterback situation is very much in flux as to whether
Brock Purty will play in this game or not. Pat,
I think you lay the five and a half right
now and don't wait for this to go to six
or seven or higher with the Rams as the limits
open up. But do you think the Niners have a
shot at keeping this game close?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Boy?
Speaker 3 (01:44):
They got one pressure last week on Trevor Lawrence, one pressure,
and now they don't have Nick Bosa for the entire season,
Like that's a problem. Give Matthew Stafford time and he
will pick you apart. And also the fact that yet
brock Perty just did not look himself like arm strength.
(02:05):
He doesn't really have a rocket arm to begin with,
and it seemed like he had a little less juice,
like something wasn't quite right, and we saw it on
with at least one of the interceptions. So yeah, I'm
a little concerned about the forty nine ers. I don't
mind taking the Rams in this. I'm the Rams. You know,
(02:26):
like they they got a good game from the Colts
and they prevailed, and they've taken the Eagles best punch
and you know, like hung in that game and got
unfortunate with a blocked kick at the end. So like
the Rams are an absolute heavyweight. And I don't know
if the forty nine ers were sort of on fraud
(02:47):
watch after starting three and zero, Like I think they're
kind of on the fraud list now after that home
loss to the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
It's just too many injuries. I don't know how you
overcome the number of injuries they have sustained on offense,
in on defense. It's a short week, I know, it's
a quick travel. It's a quick flight, but it's still travel.
It's still going to La to take on a Rams
team that was at home last week. Who, Yes, Pookin
Nakua's thumb is a little bit of a question. We
want to make sure that he's going to be in
(03:14):
this game, and I do think he'll play. He came
back after going to the locker room with the thumb
and came back and played very well. But DeVante Adams
and Pukin Nacua, this receiving corps with Matthew Stafford and
the offensive line for the Rams is not getting nearly
enough pub as it should because they're giving him tons
of time on top of the fact that they're running
the ball extremely effectively. At the moment. This is a
(03:34):
Rams offense that with Sean McVay, this right now, early
is my is my team to watch out for in
the NFL, and it's a team I want to back.
I backed him last week. Laid the three and a half.
Was that lucky? I mean, hang on to a football,
don't celebrate before you get to the end zone. Might
have been a different game, but Rams w Rams cover
(03:54):
twenty seven to twenty after with a really long touchdown
to win the game. I I like the Rams here
and I think anything less than a touchdown is a
good play here for the Rams, just because the Niners
are really up against it. And frankly, other than Christian McCaffrey,
who I get it is Christian McCaffrey. But who are
you really afraid of right now on this offense? For
(04:15):
the forty nine ers. I mean, no, they'll get better,
they'll get healthy down the line, But right now, are
you afraid of the offense at all?
Speaker 4 (04:21):
No?
Speaker 1 (04:22):
No.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
George Kittle seriously doesn't seem like Ricky Piersoll is going
to play like he's got some sort of knee issue
said he felt instability in the knee. That does not
suggest he's gonna do a quick turnaround and play on
Thursday night. So there's really no one. I mean, they're
down to Juwon Jennings. It's they're only real credible pass catcher, right.
And he took a shot and he's been banged up
(04:44):
all season.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Yeah, he took a shot to the ribs that I
think any boxer cringed, anding, Oh man, that's got to
hurt in the morning. So you don't like playing receiver
with Bruce Ribbs and that's what he's playing with. So
just a lot of problems up and down that roster
right now for sifferences. So Thursday night game, I think
you go ahead and jump on it early. Take the
five and a half, and I know there's been some
(05:06):
movements here today. Going to the dog on the Niners.
I think if you can get five, grab it five
and a half, grab it all right to one of
your plays, Pat and it's the Vikings on the road
again overseas. They become the first team in NFL history
to play two games in two weeks in two different countries.
They played against in Ireland. It took them a half
(05:28):
to wake up. First half they were asleep. Second half
they woke up. Which seems to be a trend right now.
By the way, if you're watching the Viking games, it
feels like the defense of intensity at halftime, whatever is
being said by Brian Flores at halftime is waking up
the defense because they did it against the Bears and
now they did it against the Steelers. But it wasn't enough.
(05:49):
They were down. The mountain was too high for them
to climb. Twenty four to twenty one was the final
now the Vikings are on the road to the Browns.
What do you make of this? A team staying in
Europe is that a big benefit in your mind for
a team like the Browns coming off of a loss
to the Alliance where they're traveling over to Tottenham.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
Yeah, I do think the travel narrative favors the Vikings here.
Having played in Ireland last Sunday, they're staying in Europe
for this London game. Just make the very short trip
to get to London and the Vikings Circadian rhythms have
probably adjusted European time by now. The Browns flying over
this week advantage Vikings. And as far as as last week,
(06:28):
like I do think the Vikings took a well deserved loss.
They were outplayed pretty thoroughly in that first half. We
also saw the Vikings get thoroughly outplayed by the Falcons
in Week two, and they responded by absolutely crushing the
Bengals in week three. And obviously the Bengals have their problems,
and the Browns are certainly a better team than the Bengals.
And who would have thought we'd be confidently saying that
(06:50):
less than a month into the season, but well coached
teams tend not to play two bad games in a row,
and the Vikings are a very well coached team with
Kevin O'Connell at the helm and Flores running the defense.
Joe Flacco is just toast, like he had kind of
a fun let it ripped style when he had stints
as a starter the last couple of years, but that
(07:10):
late career Pizaz has just gone at age forty, like
Flaco can't handle the pressure at all, and the Brian
Flores defense is going to throw all sorts of pressure
at him in unexpected ways. I think the Browns are
going to struggle to score in this one. And while
Carson Wentz isn't really that great at quarterback either, at
least he has playmakers like Justin Jefferson is great, Jordan
(07:32):
Addison is very good, had over one hundred yards and
his first came back from suspension last week. I think
the Vikings roll pretty easily in this one.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
I agree. I don't know what's going on with the
quarterback spot for the Browns. I think if I'm a
Cleveland Browns fan, I would like to see somebody else
besides Joe Flacco play quarterback, and I would like to
see them at least develop a young quarterback and say, look,
this is a lost season anyway, Why are we playing
an aging veteran. Doesn't make any sense. So I think
(08:02):
you're right about the travel and I think this offense
for Cleveland just isn't really all that good. And I
think the Vikings should be able to put up better
numbers and not have the turnover as you would hope.
That happened last week in the first half that really
derailed that offense for the Vikings to put them in
that hole to the Steelers. So don't turn the football over.
I think the Vikings win and the Vikings will cover
(08:22):
that three and a half points. I don't know how
many points to Cleveland Brown's actually score. So I'm with
you on on the Vikings. This next play we both
are on, and that is Tampa Bay and Seattle. This
number is three and climbing. This is why we do
this show because the key number of three is what
you want, not three and a half. At the time
of taping, most books are at three, some have moved
(08:44):
to three and a half. For Seattle, opening number was
one and a half. Tampa Bay is really really banged up,
and now they're going across the country to take on
a Seahawk team that at home is very, very difficult.
I like Seattle, You like Seattle. Why are we all
in on the seat Hawks? Pep.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
I don't think people realize just how good the Seattle
defense is.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Matt like.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
The Seahawks rank number one in defensive DVA. They're number
two against the pass, number three against the run. They
have the fourth best opponent passer rating. They have the
sixth most sacks. They've given up the sixth fewest rushing yards,
and there's only been one run of twenty yards or
more against them all season. They're defensive backfield one of
(09:24):
the best in the league. Buccaneers are down a couple
of starting offensive linemen, and running back Bucky Irving is
dealing with some sort of foot issue. They don't have
Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield is a magician. I always worry
about betting against Baker as a dog, but Baker has
also gotten a little lucky this season. He's had several
(09:45):
interception worthy throws that were not intercepted. Like, you cannot
make those sorts of mistakes against the Seattle defense. They
will make you pay. I believe they have seven interceptions
already on the season. I think the Seahawks win this
one pretty convincingly at home against a visiting Buccaneers team.
More travel narrative here, Matt making about the longest possible
(10:06):
road trip you can make in the NFL, going from
Florida to the Pacific Northwest.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Yeah, yesterday, at the press conference on Monday, Todd Bowles
was asked about injuries, and he said, there's so many
players getting MRIs. I don't know how many I have
to tell you about. Like he couldn't even mention the
number of players it was so high getting MRIs. This
is a really really banged up football team. That is,
as you mentioned, they won three games on last second drives.
(10:35):
That's somewhat fortuitous here in the fourth quarter in the
NFL to come and win games like the way the
Bucks have went. And I love the Bucks, don't get
me wrong. Went healthy the Bucks, I think the best
team in the division. But they're not healthy, and they
don't have Mike Evans you mentioned two up in the line.
They got Tristan Wurf's back, but they still give up
tons of pressure to Baker against the Eagles last week.
(10:56):
Bucky Irvin's injury concerns me because he's been that one
big weapon, a big play, big touchdown, run or catch.
Rather against the Eagles, I'm with you. I don't think
this is a good spot. I'm not saying teams punt
in the NFL, but over seventeen weeks, if you're Tampa
Bay losing at Seattle, there's no there's no real you know,
harm in it. It's just it's a hard place to play.
(11:18):
It's a hard trip, and you're going to be up
against it without having a vast majority of your players
that you would want to have this it was a
playoff game, I might think differently. You're right about Baker
Mayfield record as a dog. He's tremendous as a dog,
awful as a favorite, great as a dog. Look look
what happened last week against the Eagles. But I don't
think this is a good spot. I think this is
(11:39):
this is one of those comeback down to Earth moments.
I'm with you on Seattle to get a big win
here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Guys, track your bets,
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(11:59):
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your third play here, pat and I am really interested
(12:23):
to hear your take on this because my Patriots are
playing in primetime up against the Buffalo Bills, and Drake
may If he throws for two touchdowns and completes seventy
five percent of his passes against Buffalo's defense, I will
be floored. And not only will I be floored, that
(12:43):
will also tie the NFL record for the most consecutive
games with that stat line, tying the one in the
only Tom Brady who did it in two thousand and
seven with the Patriots. I don't see that type of
performance here, but you like the Pats plus eight eight
and a half. Tell me why I do?
Speaker 3 (13:00):
And I do think Drake may can move the ball
against the Bills, and you can absolutely run on the Bills.
They ranked thirtieth in DVOA against the run. Like their
run defense. It's just bad right now.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
And Matt, you know how.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
The Chiefs kind of when they were at their the
height of their powers in the AFC just a few
short years ago, they had this way of not covering
against lesser teams as big favorites, especially at home, And
I think we're starting to see sort of the same
phenomenon with the Bills, like we have seen them play
with their food in each of the last two weeks.
(13:35):
They had a scare thrown into them by the Dolphins
in a Thursday night home game in Week three, didn't cover.
They were big home favorites against the Saints in Week four,
let the Saints hang around well into the second half,
didn't cover. Now for a third straight week, the Bills
are big home favorites, but this time against a pretty
plucky divisional rival that's two and two and really should
(13:58):
be three and one had they not committed a bunch
of costly turnovers and what should have been an easy
win over the Steelers. Yeah, I'm totally.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Sold on Drake may.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
I think he is already one of the ten best
quarterbacks in the league, and it might be in the
you know, on the Josh Allen tier before too long.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
Here.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
You know, it's whether it's whether the Patriots can get
enough stops against this Bell's offense. And you know, the
Patriots have been pretty decent against the run so far.
So I'm looking forward to this game. I think it's
going to be closer than a lot of people are expecting.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Yeah, the Superman cape for Josh Allen worries me, and
I've seen it before, and this is where in prime time,
Josh Allen is the best player on the field and
the Patriots can't stop him running or passing, and it
opens up all sorts of weapons down the field because
they're so worried about Josh Allen's scrambling ability. This is
a big game for the Patriots because they have gone
(14:59):
to Buffalo before and they have shocked the Bills before,
and they've had opportunities to beat the Bills in Buffalo
recently that really changed the course of a season, and
they've made one or two mistakes that just things didn't
work out. Eight and a half, seven and a half,
I think anything over seven. I wouldn't bet seven or less,
but I think seven and a half are higher. I
(15:20):
think is a good number to jump in with the Patriots.
And I'm also going to be watching what happens. You
mentioned the running game. So the Patriots right now have
three good running backs, but Trayvon Henderson is the only
one who hasn't fumbled. So Gibson's fumbled, Stevenson has fumbled.
But yet last week on Sunday, they took care of
the football. Now you can say that's against the Panthers,
(15:41):
but you're supposed to do that against bad football teams.
You're supposed to take them behind the woodshed and blow
their doors off. The Patriots defense looked great, but here's
the one hook that I think could really benefit you.
And we'll see what the Bills look like. I watched
the Saints game. The Patriots have two special teams touchdowns
so far this year. They have a kick return for
(16:01):
a touchdown against Miami and a put return against the Panthers.
They are scoring in that third kind of secret. We
don't talk about special teams all that much offensive defense,
but they have weapons right now in the return game
that I think could really help Drake may in this
offense with short fields against Buffalo. So if that trend
continues and the Patriots special teams continues to be a
(16:23):
big story for them, I'm right there with you. If
it's not, I'm concerned about that number. Concerned that the
Patriots turned the ball over and it turns into a
thirty two, you know, a thirty to seventeen type victory.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
And by the Bills, by the way Bills run defense,
giving up six yards of carry right now, and even
six yards per carry.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Sounds like a Remandroe Stevenson game. That sounds like load
him up and let him a on and see if
he can finally get himself going and not fumble the
football like Patriot fans. He's not Derrick Henry, but he
does have that propensity to run through defenses. And Derrick
Henry lit up this Buffalo Bills defense in week number one,
so they're not the same. But Stevens is a big,
(17:05):
powerful back who once he gets into the open field,
you don't want to tackle him. So if he's rolling,
I think you're right. The Patriots might have a shot
right at the end to win the game, let alone
cover the spread. Patriots might be there to win the game,
and that would be a I mean, you want to
announce your presence, Drake may go to Buffalo and beat
the Bills. Go do that. That would be that would
(17:26):
be wild from my final game for a locket in
now number I go to Monday night and the Chiefs
up against Jacksonville, and look, I know there's been a
lot of talk about the Chiefs on the road and
what they look like versus at home, and they were
at home against the Ravens. But that was a get
right game for the Chiefs offense in my mind. And
the Jacksonville Jaguars they're flying high after a big win
(17:49):
on the road against the forty nine ers. They come
back and I just think in prime time. I'm sorry,
I'm not again faded. I'm fading the Niners as a
theme here. I'm fading the nine. That's one of my plays.
I don't like San Francisco. So I'm not in love
with the Jacksonville Jaguars win last week. I'm not enamored
by it, going like, oh my gosh, this team has
figured it out with Lean Coleen as the coach. I
(18:10):
just think the Chiefs are the better football team, and
I don't want to lay more than three points. So
I think Casey's Casey wins by how much. I don't
think it's much more than a field goal, But I
don't want to get three and a half or four pad.
I want to jump in and lay the three right now.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
With Kansas City, Yeah, I haven't decided if I'm going
to play this one myself or not, Matt, but I
would be inclined to play the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
I think, like I'm we know the Jaguars can't really.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Pass effectively, have not at all this season, and this
quarterback match up Patrick Mahomes against Trevor Lawrence seems like
a pretty epic missmatch. The Jaguars defense, I can't figure
out whether it's legitimate or whether they're just riding on
good turnover lock. I know Josh Allen, Josh Hines Allen,
their edge rusher, is just a freak of nature. He
(18:55):
is like on the he has almost on the Miles
Garrett Micah Parsons type two like he is just I mean,
he abused Trent Williams last week, just abused him.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
And you know, I know Trent Williams is.
Speaker 3 (19:08):
Older, but he's He's been a pretty good tackle and
Josh heinz Allen just picked his teeth with Trent Williams,
so he could be a problem for the Chiefs, but
they're getting a lot of turnovers. I don't know if
that kind of good fortune sustains itself. Let's hope it
was a get right game for the Chiefs offense and
that what we saw against the Ravens was legit and
(19:30):
not just the Chiefs picking on a really banged up defense.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
The Ravens are one in three, amazing one in three
for the Ravens. It really is something. Guys. Today's show
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Speaker 1 (20:46):
All right, let's talk survivor pools here in what could
be an option? Now? Like I said before last week,
and we'll kind of say it again, what you guys
have available to you maybe different than what we are
going to talk about. So We're just giving out ideas
for games that you could use if that team is
available to you. But once you use a team, obviously
you can't go ahead and do that. We hope for
(21:08):
no ties this week, Pat, no ties, because if you're
playing in the Circus Survivor, you're out on both sides
with the Cowboys and the Packers. But who do you
like in Survivor this week?
Speaker 2 (21:18):
I mean, I think the obvious pick if you've got
them available, although you know some people will never take
a road team, but man, like, is there any chance
the Bengals could beat the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
Absolutely not.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
Just doesn't seem like that. So you know, like, I
don't know if I'm going to go that route, Matt.
I think I'm going to. And this one terrifies me
because I do not believe very much in the Cardinals offense,
but I very much don't believe in the Titans or
anything they're doing on offense or defense, and think they're
(21:51):
probably the worst team in football. I am inclined to
take the Cardinals against the Titans this week and not
burn a major team, and like those major teams becoming
a little more precious because I think the Packers have
shown maybe they're not as their operation isn't as air
tight as we had hoped after two weeks. And the
(22:14):
Ravens we thought were going to be one of the
powerhouses and they are not. So the Lions are one
of the few bankable powerhouse teams. I'm not sure I
want to burn them just yet. I think I'm going
to go with the Cardinals and try to skatee by
against the Titans. I also consider the Colts against the Raiders,
but I don't know. I don't think the Raiders are
that bad a team, and maybe this is a letdown
(22:36):
spot for the Colts after their high profile game against
the Rams, which they probably should have won. Matt if
Ady Mitchell doesn't have that horrible fumble, and I think
Adie Mitchell also got a holding call on a long
Jonathan Taylor touchdown run that was negated.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
Tough game for him.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
But like, I don't know, I just I worry a
little bit about the Colts in that spot against the Raider.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
So yeah, the Cardinals are my play.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
I like it. It's a teaser special for me as well.
I mean, I think you just pulled that down from
eight to two, and you tease the Cardinals. If you
don't want to take them and survivor, it has to
be on your card. The Titans changed up offensive play
calling last week and it gave them, let's check up,
no points. So yeah, great job, Brian Callahan.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
Way to go.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
And I had to give up the play calling. I'm
not doing anything wrong. We don't want to give up
the play calling because you know, I need to be
a full coach on it. Yeah, you scored zero points
against the Texans, so yeah, one hundred percent. Fading the
Titans the rest of the way isn't a bad idea.
Cardinals are desperate, they need to win. They're at home,
it's a tough environment to go play out there in
(23:44):
the desert and the big Toaster as it used to
be called. Yeah, I'm with you on that. Equally, the
Bengals are a complete disaster. They are now eight and
twenty four with Zach Taylor as the head coach without
Joe Burrow, and I am I have staked my own
gambling reputation on that. Brian Callahan has no clue what
(24:04):
he's doing, and Zach Taylor without Joe Burrow has no
clue what he's doing. You saw players fighting on the
sidelines on Monday night. You saw Jamar Chase being extremely frustrated. Look,
it's not Jake Browning's fault. The offensive line is horrible,
and they've invested all this money in John Madden esque
types of video game players. When you pay your quarterback
(24:27):
and you pay two wide receivers and you play a
defensive end, you don't have any money left. And then
the star wide receiver, sorry the star quarterback goes down
and so the two star wideouts can't get the football
the way that they want to get the football because
that was your whole triangle for offense. They're in trouble,
like they're in big trouble, and they may be down
in that Browns Titans Saints conversation in terms of the
(24:51):
worst teams in the NFL. So I fade the Bengals,
fade them the rest of the year. The Lions aren't
losing to the Bengals. They may not cover ten, but
pat they're not losing, not losing. The Lions aren't losing
to the Bengals. In my mind, it's hard to imagine.
It is really hard to imagine unless there's major injuries. Right,
(25:11):
And let's like we see a big injury to Jared
Goff or we see something that really like derails their
entire team. If they're healthy and playing up to their capability, Okay,
maybe they don't cover, but the Lions win. So if
you have the Lions available to you, I mean, if
I think it's a good plaint.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
If Jared Goff was out, well would this spread be
I feel like the Lions would still be a road favorite.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Seven six and a half. Yeah, yeah, somewhere in that range.
I mean the.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Bengals have shown no right, nothing, no.
Speaker 1 (25:40):
No, yeah, you heard of the bone. I mean the Broncos.
That was one of the most I think I saw
the stat the Broncos that was the fourth largest discrepancy
in yards gained versus yards given up in the history
of the Broncos franchise on Monday Night. Like it just
it was a completely other mismatch. And that and I
thought bow Knicks didn't play very well. Bon Nicks was okay,
(26:01):
but I thought they could have that a game could
have been a lot more lopsided if bo Nicks had
played better at the quarterback spot for the Broncos. So,
I mean JK. Dobbins ran all over them. I think
you got to look at both running backs Gibbs anytime touchdown, like,
just go and load up if you're looking for any
time touchdowns and yards over for running backs. With that
Lion's offensive line dominating, they're gonna road grade the Bengals.
(26:23):
That's that's gonna be ug glee. Guys. Want to track
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(26:44):
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All right, as we wrap here, what are plays that
you would make right now? I think we've kind of
covered a lot of them, But Pat, what would you
fire on today? Here? On Tuesday?
Speaker 3 (26:57):
As we tape the one I really want to lock
in before for this number moves matt Is Commander's Chargers
under forty seven and a half and I just I
worry that maybe people are going to realize how compromise
the Chargers are now without Joe Alt he was carted
off last week so not expected to play this week.
(27:18):
They had already lost their other starting offensive tackle, ver
Shawn Slater, so down both starting offensive tackles, Like it's
gotta hurt the outlook for Justin Herbert, and he was
under some pretty heavy duress in that loss to the
Giants in Week four. So as much splashy firepower as
(27:39):
the Chargers have With Herbert playing so well, that wide
receiver trio of Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen and Lad McConkie
and O'marion Hampton running really well. Like the offensive line
is a problem now, no question about that. Jaden Daniels
expected back from a knee injury, but we'll see how
that affects his mobility. I don't know whether he gets
(28:00):
Terry McLaurin back from his quad injury this week. And
the Chargers defense is tough. We've seen that like this
is absolutely absolutely a top ten defense. I think they
ranked sixth in DVOA. This just doesn't feel like a
shootout to me, Matt, and we're getting a pretty big
number on it. So I feel like the under is
a pretty good percentage play here, and I want to
grab it now before this number, you know, before we
(28:23):
lose a point of value as the week goes on.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
I concur but I would go to the side as well.
I think the Chargers bounce back and win this game.
You're absolute right about the offensive line being a question,
but at home the wins over the Chiefs and the Broncos.
For the Chargers, I just think the Commanders. I didn't
like them coming into this season. I don't like them now,
and I mean until even if Daniels comes back, I
(28:48):
still would go ahead and take the Chargers, and you
probably get a better number if Jane Daniels does wind
up playing. But it's Marcus Mariota at the moment and
the numbers two and a half, So two and a
half or three on the Chargers, I think he got it.
Take the Chargers before it goes over. I think if
it is going to be Mariota, for sure, this number
is gonna be three and a half or higher. So
I would one hundred percent jump on this now. And
(29:09):
I think even with the offensive line, look, they should
have won the game against the Giants. I mean there's
two games I'm gonna be furious about for the rest
of the year. The Chargers lost to the Giants and
the Packers lost to the Browns. I mean, these are
games that just you know, right now in the NFL,
if you are laying points on the road, you are
getting destroyed. Okay, just FYI. Home teams are dominating right
(29:33):
now in the NFL. Road teams are having a hard
time winning, let alone covering. They're having a hard time
winning game straight up right now. So I would be
careful about Washington any road team. I would be a
little careful about laying big numbers, like the Lions laying
ten for instance. Be careful on those games, just because
what we've seen from a trend perspective in the NFL.
(29:55):
But the other game, I'd say, I think you have
to take it before it goes to six or higher.
Is we talked about it the open. I just think
the Niners are so banged up, and I think the
Rams are licking their chops. The NFC West has been
weird like this, right, I mean, like the Cardinals, they
can't beat the Seahawks to save their life. The Niners
have a hard time beating the Rams. I think the
Rams wind up getting a w and covering that five
(30:17):
and a half six point spread here. I would lock
that in coming up right now if you guys have
a chance to do so that in closing, any final
thoughts as we head towards Week five.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
You know, keep an eye out for injury news that
can always affect things. But feeling pretty good about the
wagers we talked about today.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Matt, Yeah, I'm with you. I like the card this week.
I didn't love the card last week. I do like
the card this week. And remember, guys, we are into
the first week of buys. Okay, this is a shorter
schedule than usual. Bunch of teams in week five, which
feels really early to take bye weeks, but a bunch
of teams are off on buys. So if you have
fantasy lineups and whatnot, make sure you are checking those
(30:55):
because you may have players who are not playing this
week that you got to go ahead and sit them
on the bench. He's beat Fitz Morris. I am at parolt.
We'll talk to you next week for another episode Week
six of the NFL. Next week, as we get into
it here for Betting Pros.
Speaker 5 (31:08):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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What's up, guys? How are you welcome into week five?
It is time for early bets, Early prediction, Live Movement
Survivor plays in more. He is pepits Morse, I'matt Peraltan
we He had to look at the first week in
the NFL with buys pat. It's a smaller schedule and
than what we're used to seeing. But how are you
on this Tuesday as we look forward to happening with
that from Thursday and Sunday.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, doing well, Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
The Broncos helped ensure that I wasn't gonna have a
losing week, close to a losing week, but the Broncos
kind of saved me last night. So feeling good going
into week five. Yeah, shorter slaves the byes already. Man,
seems like the season just started and here we are
in week five.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Bye weeks.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Yeah, last night saved me too. Monday night, I had
the over in the first game and then I had
the Broncos big and took JK. Dobbins over laddered it
a little bit for his rushing totals. So that was
a nice little pick me up after a pretty bad
Sunday for me. So I was excited about what happened there.
I don't know how the Lions game didn't go over
for us. I just don't. I don't get it. We
(01:00):
talked about it on Sunday. It fell forty four. I
laid forty four and a half, forty four and a half,
and we got hooked on that total. So I don't
understand how we lost that. But that's fine, that's gambling.
And we move on here to what we're going to
see today in this week. Let's start with Thursday, because
that's one of the games that I would say you
should fire on right now. It is a divisional game.
(01:22):
It is the Rams against a banged up forty nine
Ers team. Nick Bosa is gone, but I mean the
quarterback situation is very much in flux as to whether
Brock Purty will play in this game or not. Pat,
I think you lay the five and a half right
now and don't wait for this to go to six
or seven or higher with the Rams as the limits
open up. But do you think the Niners have a
shot at keeping this game close?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Boy?
Speaker 3 (01:44):
They got one pressure last week on Trevor Lawrence, one pressure,
and now they don't have Nick Bosa for the entire season,
Like that's a problem. Give Matthew Stafford time and he
will pick you apart. And also the fact that yet
brock Perty just did not look himself like arm strength.
(02:05):
He doesn't really have a rocket arm to begin with,
and it seemed like he had a little less juice,
like something wasn't quite right, and we saw it on
with at least one of the interceptions. So yeah, I'm
a little concerned about the forty nine ers. I don't
mind taking the Rams in this. I'm the Rams. You know,
(02:26):
like they they got a good game from the Colts
and they prevailed, and they've taken the Eagles best punch
and you know, like hung in that game and got
unfortunate with a blocked kick at the end. So like
the Rams are an absolute heavyweight. And I don't know
if the forty nine ers were sort of on fraud
(02:47):
watch after starting three and zero, Like I think they're
kind of on the fraud list now after that home
loss to the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
It's just too many injuries. I don't know how you
overcome the number of injuries they have sustained on offense,
in on defense. It's a short week, I know, it's
a quick travel. It's a quick flight, but it's still travel.
It's still going to La to take on a Rams
team that was at home last week. Who, Yes, Pookin
Nakua's thumb is a little bit of a question. We
want to make sure that he's going to be in
(03:14):
this game, and I do think he'll play. He came
back after going to the locker room with the thumb
and came back and played very well. But DeVante Adams
and Pukin Nacua, this receiving corps with Matthew Stafford and
the offensive line for the Rams is not getting nearly
enough pub as it should because they're giving him tons
of time on top of the fact that they're running
the ball extremely effectively. At the moment. This is a
(03:34):
Rams offense that with Sean McVay, this right now, early
is my is my team to watch out for in
the NFL, and it's a team I want to back.
I backed him last week. Laid the three and a half.
Was that lucky? I mean, hang on to a football,
don't celebrate before you get to the end zone. Might
have been a different game, but Rams w Rams cover
(03:54):
twenty seven to twenty after with a really long touchdown
to win the game. I I like the Rams here
and I think anything less than a touchdown is a
good play here for the Rams, just because the Niners
are really up against it. And frankly, other than Christian McCaffrey,
who I get it is Christian McCaffrey. But who are
you really afraid of right now on this offense? For
(04:15):
the forty nine ers. I mean, no, they'll get better,
they'll get healthy down the line, But right now, are
you afraid of the offense at all?
Speaker 4 (04:21):
No?
Speaker 1 (04:22):
No.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
George Kittle seriously doesn't seem like Ricky Piersoll is going
to play like he's got some sort of knee issue
said he felt instability in the knee. That does not
suggest he's gonna do a quick turnaround and play on
Thursday night. So there's really no one. I mean, they're
down to Juwon Jennings. It's they're only real credible pass catcher, right.
And he took a shot and he's been banged up
(04:44):
all season.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Yeah, he took a shot to the ribs that I
think any boxer cringed, anding, Oh man, that's got to
hurt in the morning. So you don't like playing receiver
with Bruce Ribbs and that's what he's playing with. So
just a lot of problems up and down that roster
right now for sifferences. So Thursday night game, I think
you go ahead and jump on it early. Take the
five and a half, and I know there's been some
(05:06):
movements here today. Going to the dog on the Niners.
I think if you can get five, grab it five
and a half, grab it all right to one of
your plays, Pat and it's the Vikings on the road
again overseas. They become the first team in NFL history
to play two games in two weeks in two different countries.
They played against in Ireland. It took them a half
(05:28):
to wake up. First half they were asleep. Second half
they woke up. Which seems to be a trend right now.
By the way, if you're watching the Viking games, it
feels like the defense of intensity at halftime, whatever is
being said by Brian Flores at halftime is waking up
the defense because they did it against the Bears and
now they did it against the Steelers. But it wasn't enough.
(05:49):
They were down. The mountain was too high for them
to climb. Twenty four to twenty one was the final
now the Vikings are on the road to the Browns.
What do you make of this? A team staying in
Europe is that a big benefit in your mind for
a team like the Browns coming off of a loss
to the Alliance where they're traveling over to Tottenham.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
Yeah, I do think the travel narrative favors the Vikings here.
Having played in Ireland last Sunday, they're staying in Europe
for this London game. Just make the very short trip
to get to London and the Vikings Circadian rhythms have
probably adjusted European time by now. The Browns flying over
this week advantage Vikings. And as far as as last week,
(06:28):
like I do think the Vikings took a well deserved loss.
They were outplayed pretty thoroughly in that first half. We
also saw the Vikings get thoroughly outplayed by the Falcons
in Week two, and they responded by absolutely crushing the
Bengals in week three. And obviously the Bengals have their problems,
and the Browns are certainly a better team than the Bengals.
And who would have thought we'd be confidently saying that
(06:50):
less than a month into the season, but well coached
teams tend not to play two bad games in a row,
and the Vikings are a very well coached team with
Kevin O'Connell at the helm and Flores running the defense.
Joe Flacco is just toast, like he had kind of
a fun let it ripped style when he had stints
as a starter the last couple of years, but that
(07:10):
late career Pizaz has just gone at age forty, like
Flaco can't handle the pressure at all, and the Brian
Flores defense is going to throw all sorts of pressure
at him in unexpected ways. I think the Browns are
going to struggle to score in this one. And while
Carson Wentz isn't really that great at quarterback either, at
least he has playmakers like Justin Jefferson is great, Jordan
(07:32):
Addison is very good, had over one hundred yards and
his first came back from suspension last week. I think
the Vikings roll pretty easily in this one.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
I agree. I don't know what's going on with the
quarterback spot for the Browns. I think if I'm a
Cleveland Browns fan, I would like to see somebody else
besides Joe Flacco play quarterback, and I would like to
see them at least develop a young quarterback and say, look,
this is a lost season anyway, Why are we playing
an aging veteran. Doesn't make any sense. So I think
(08:02):
you're right about the travel and I think this offense
for Cleveland just isn't really all that good. And I
think the Vikings should be able to put up better
numbers and not have the turnover as you would hope.
That happened last week in the first half that really
derailed that offense for the Vikings to put them in
that hole to the Steelers. So don't turn the football over.
I think the Vikings win and the Vikings will cover
(08:22):
that three and a half points. I don't know how
many points to Cleveland Brown's actually score. So I'm with
you on on the Vikings. This next play we both
are on, and that is Tampa Bay and Seattle. This
number is three and climbing. This is why we do
this show because the key number of three is what
you want, not three and a half. At the time
of taping, most books are at three, some have moved
(08:44):
to three and a half. For Seattle, opening number was
one and a half. Tampa Bay is really really banged up,
and now they're going across the country to take on
a Seahawk team that at home is very, very difficult.
I like Seattle, You like Seattle. Why are we all
in on the seat Hawks? Pep.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
I don't think people realize just how good the Seattle
defense is.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Matt like.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
The Seahawks rank number one in defensive DVA. They're number
two against the pass, number three against the run. They
have the fourth best opponent passer rating. They have the
sixth most sacks. They've given up the sixth fewest rushing yards,
and there's only been one run of twenty yards or
more against them all season. They're defensive backfield one of
(09:24):
the best in the league. Buccaneers are down a couple
of starting offensive linemen, and running back Bucky Irving is
dealing with some sort of foot issue. They don't have
Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield is a magician. I always worry
about betting against Baker as a dog, but Baker has
also gotten a little lucky this season. He's had several
(09:45):
interception worthy throws that were not intercepted. Like, you cannot
make those sorts of mistakes against the Seattle defense. They
will make you pay. I believe they have seven interceptions
already on the season. I think the Seahawks win this
one pretty convincingly at home against a visiting Buccaneers team.
More travel narrative here, Matt making about the longest possible
(10:06):
road trip you can make in the NFL, going from
Florida to the Pacific Northwest.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Yeah, yesterday, at the press conference on Monday, Todd Bowles
was asked about injuries, and he said, there's so many
players getting MRIs. I don't know how many I have
to tell you about. Like he couldn't even mention the
number of players it was so high getting MRIs. This
is a really really banged up football team. That is,
as you mentioned, they won three games on last second drives.
(10:35):
That's somewhat fortuitous here in the fourth quarter in the
NFL to come and win games like the way the
Bucks have went. And I love the Bucks, don't get
me wrong. Went healthy the Bucks, I think the best
team in the division. But they're not healthy, and they
don't have Mike Evans you mentioned two up in the line.
They got Tristan Wurf's back, but they still give up
tons of pressure to Baker against the Eagles last week.
(10:56):
Bucky Irvin's injury concerns me because he's been that one
big weapon, a big play, big touchdown, run or catch.
Rather against the Eagles, I'm with you. I don't think
this is a good spot. I'm not saying teams punt
in the NFL, but over seventeen weeks, if you're Tampa
Bay losing at Seattle, there's no there's no real you know,
harm in it. It's just it's a hard place to play.
(11:18):
It's a hard trip, and you're going to be up
against it without having a vast majority of your players
that you would want to have this it was a
playoff game, I might think differently. You're right about Baker
Mayfield record as a dog. He's tremendous as a dog,
awful as a favorite, great as a dog. Look look
what happened last week against the Eagles. But I don't
think this is a good spot. I think this is
(11:39):
this is one of those comeback down to Earth moments.
I'm with you on Seattle to get a big win
here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Guys, track your bets,
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(11:59):
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by going to Bettingpros dot com slash Premium. All right,
your third play here, pat and I am really interested
(12:23):
to hear your take on this because my Patriots are
playing in primetime up against the Buffalo Bills, and Drake
may If he throws for two touchdowns and completes seventy
five percent of his passes against Buffalo's defense, I will
be floored. And not only will I be floored, that
(12:43):
will also tie the NFL record for the most consecutive
games with that stat line, tying the one in the
only Tom Brady who did it in two thousand and
seven with the Patriots. I don't see that type of
performance here, but you like the Pats plus eight eight
and a half. Tell me why I do?
Speaker 3 (13:00):
And I do think Drake may can move the ball
against the Bills, and you can absolutely run on the Bills.
They ranked thirtieth in DVOA against the run. Like their
run defense. It's just bad right now.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
And Matt, you know how.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
The Chiefs kind of when they were at their the
height of their powers in the AFC just a few
short years ago, they had this way of not covering
against lesser teams as big favorites, especially at home, And
I think we're starting to see sort of the same
phenomenon with the Bills, like we have seen them play
with their food in each of the last two weeks.
(13:35):
They had a scare thrown into them by the Dolphins
in a Thursday night home game in Week three, didn't cover.
They were big home favorites against the Saints in Week four,
let the Saints hang around well into the second half,
didn't cover. Now for a third straight week, the Bills
are big home favorites, but this time against a pretty
plucky divisional rival that's two and two and really should
(13:58):
be three and one had they not committed a bunch
of costly turnovers and what should have been an easy
win over the Steelers. Yeah, I'm totally.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Sold on Drake may.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
I think he is already one of the ten best
quarterbacks in the league, and it might be in the
you know, on the Josh Allen tier before too long.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
Here.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
You know, it's whether it's whether the Patriots can get
enough stops against this Bell's offense. And you know, the
Patriots have been pretty decent against the run so far.
So I'm looking forward to this game. I think it's
going to be closer than a lot of people are expecting.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Yeah, the Superman cape for Josh Allen worries me, and
I've seen it before, and this is where in prime time,
Josh Allen is the best player on the field and
the Patriots can't stop him running or passing, and it
opens up all sorts of weapons down the field because
they're so worried about Josh Allen's scrambling ability. This is
a big game for the Patriots because they have gone
(14:59):
to Buffalo before and they have shocked the Bills before,
and they've had opportunities to beat the Bills in Buffalo
recently that really changed the course of a season, and
they've made one or two mistakes that just things didn't
work out. Eight and a half, seven and a half,
I think anything over seven. I wouldn't bet seven or less,
but I think seven and a half are higher. I
(15:20):
think is a good number to jump in with the Patriots.
And I'm also going to be watching what happens. You
mentioned the running game. So the Patriots right now have
three good running backs, but Trayvon Henderson is the only
one who hasn't fumbled. So Gibson's fumbled, Stevenson has fumbled.
But yet last week on Sunday, they took care of
the football. Now you can say that's against the Panthers,
(15:41):
but you're supposed to do that against bad football teams.
You're supposed to take them behind the woodshed and blow
their doors off. The Patriots defense looked great, but here's
the one hook that I think could really benefit you.
And we'll see what the Bills look like. I watched
the Saints game. The Patriots have two special teams touchdowns
so far this year. They have a kick return for
(16:01):
a touchdown against Miami and a put return against the Panthers.
They are scoring in that third kind of secret. We
don't talk about special teams all that much offensive defense,
but they have weapons right now in the return game
that I think could really help Drake may in this
offense with short fields against Buffalo. So if that trend
continues and the Patriots special teams continues to be a
(16:23):
big story for them, I'm right there with you. If
it's not, I'm concerned about that number. Concerned that the
Patriots turned the ball over and it turns into a
thirty two, you know, a thirty to seventeen type victory.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
And by the Bills, by the way Bills run defense,
giving up six yards of carry right now, and even
six yards per carry.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Sounds like a Remandroe Stevenson game. That sounds like load
him up and let him a on and see if
he can finally get himself going and not fumble the
football like Patriot fans. He's not Derrick Henry, but he
does have that propensity to run through defenses. And Derrick
Henry lit up this Buffalo Bills defense in week number one,
so they're not the same. But Stevens is a big,
(17:05):
powerful back who once he gets into the open field,
you don't want to tackle him. So if he's rolling,
I think you're right. The Patriots might have a shot
right at the end to win the game, let alone
cover the spread. Patriots might be there to win the game,
and that would be a I mean, you want to
announce your presence, Drake may go to Buffalo and beat
the Bills. Go do that. That would be that would
(17:26):
be wild from my final game for a locket in
now number I go to Monday night and the Chiefs
up against Jacksonville, and look, I know there's been a
lot of talk about the Chiefs on the road and
what they look like versus at home, and they were
at home against the Ravens. But that was a get
right game for the Chiefs offense in my mind. And
the Jacksonville Jaguars they're flying high after a big win
(17:49):
on the road against the forty nine ers. They come
back and I just think in prime time. I'm sorry,
I'm not again faded. I'm fading the Niners as a
theme here. I'm fading the nine. That's one of my plays.
I don't like San Francisco. So I'm not in love
with the Jacksonville Jaguars win last week. I'm not enamored
by it, going like, oh my gosh, this team has
figured it out with Lean Coleen as the coach. I
(18:10):
just think the Chiefs are the better football team, and
I don't want to lay more than three points. So
I think Casey's Casey wins by how much. I don't
think it's much more than a field goal, But I
don't want to get three and a half or four pad.
I want to jump in and lay the three right now.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
With Kansas City, Yeah, I haven't decided if I'm going
to play this one myself or not, Matt, but I
would be inclined to play the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
I think, like I'm we know the Jaguars can't really.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Pass effectively, have not at all this season, and this
quarterback match up Patrick Mahomes against Trevor Lawrence seems like
a pretty epic missmatch. The Jaguars defense, I can't figure
out whether it's legitimate or whether they're just riding on
good turnover lock. I know Josh Allen, Josh Hines Allen,
their edge rusher, is just a freak of nature. He
(18:55):
is like on the he has almost on the Miles
Garrett Micah Parsons type two like he is just I mean,
he abused Trent Williams last week, just abused him.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
And you know, I know Trent Williams is.
Speaker 3 (19:08):
Older, but he's He's been a pretty good tackle and
Josh heinz Allen just picked his teeth with Trent Williams,
so he could be a problem for the Chiefs, but
they're getting a lot of turnovers. I don't know if
that kind of good fortune sustains itself. Let's hope it
was a get right game for the Chiefs offense and
that what we saw against the Ravens was legit and
(19:30):
not just the Chiefs picking on a really banged up defense.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
The Ravens are one in three, amazing one in three
for the Ravens. It really is something. Guys. Today's show
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Speaker 1 (20:46):
All right, let's talk survivor pools here in what could
be an option? Now? Like I said before last week,
and we'll kind of say it again, what you guys
have available to you maybe different than what we are
going to talk about. So We're just giving out ideas
for games that you could use if that team is
available to you. But once you use a team, obviously
you can't go ahead and do that. We hope for
(21:08):
no ties this week, Pat, no ties, because if you're
playing in the Circus Survivor, you're out on both sides
with the Cowboys and the Packers. But who do you
like in Survivor this week?
Speaker 2 (21:18):
I mean, I think the obvious pick if you've got
them available, although you know some people will never take
a road team, but man, like, is there any chance
the Bengals could beat the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
Absolutely not.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
Just doesn't seem like that. So you know, like, I
don't know if I'm going to go that route, Matt.
I think I'm going to. And this one terrifies me
because I do not believe very much in the Cardinals offense,
but I very much don't believe in the Titans or
anything they're doing on offense or defense, and think they're
(21:51):
probably the worst team in football. I am inclined to
take the Cardinals against the Titans this week and not
burn a major team, and like those major teams becoming
a little more precious because I think the Packers have
shown maybe they're not as their operation isn't as air
tight as we had hoped after two weeks. And the
(22:14):
Ravens we thought were going to be one of the
powerhouses and they are not. So the Lions are one
of the few bankable powerhouse teams. I'm not sure I
want to burn them just yet. I think I'm going
to go with the Cardinals and try to skatee by
against the Titans. I also consider the Colts against the Raiders,
but I don't know. I don't think the Raiders are
that bad a team, and maybe this is a letdown
(22:36):
spot for the Colts after their high profile game against
the Rams, which they probably should have won. Matt if
Ady Mitchell doesn't have that horrible fumble, and I think
Adie Mitchell also got a holding call on a long
Jonathan Taylor touchdown run that was negated.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
Tough game for him.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
But like, I don't know, I just I worry a
little bit about the Colts in that spot against the Raider.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
So yeah, the Cardinals are my play.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
I like it. It's a teaser special for me as well.
I mean, I think you just pulled that down from
eight to two, and you tease the Cardinals. If you
don't want to take them and survivor, it has to
be on your card. The Titans changed up offensive play
calling last week and it gave them, let's check up,
no points. So yeah, great job, Brian Callahan.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
Way to go.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
And I had to give up the play calling. I'm
not doing anything wrong. We don't want to give up
the play calling because you know, I need to be
a full coach on it. Yeah, you scored zero points
against the Texans, so yeah, one hundred percent. Fading the
Titans the rest of the way isn't a bad idea.
Cardinals are desperate, they need to win. They're at home,
it's a tough environment to go play out there in
(23:44):
the desert and the big Toaster as it used to
be called. Yeah, I'm with you on that. Equally, the
Bengals are a complete disaster. They are now eight and
twenty four with Zach Taylor as the head coach without
Joe Burrow, and I am I have staked my own
gambling reputation on that. Brian Callahan has no clue what
(24:04):
he's doing, and Zach Taylor without Joe Burrow has no
clue what he's doing. You saw players fighting on the
sidelines on Monday night. You saw Jamar Chase being extremely frustrated. Look,
it's not Jake Browning's fault. The offensive line is horrible,
and they've invested all this money in John Madden esque
types of video game players. When you pay your quarterback
(24:27):
and you pay two wide receivers and you play a
defensive end, you don't have any money left. And then
the star wide receiver, sorry the star quarterback goes down
and so the two star wideouts can't get the football
the way that they want to get the football because
that was your whole triangle for offense. They're in trouble,
like they're in big trouble, and they may be down
in that Browns Titans Saints conversation in terms of the
(24:51):
worst teams in the NFL. So I fade the Bengals,
fade them the rest of the year. The Lions aren't
losing to the Bengals. They may not cover ten, but
pat they're not losing, not losing. The Lions aren't losing
to the Bengals. In my mind, it's hard to imagine.
It is really hard to imagine unless there's major injuries. Right,
(25:11):
And let's like we see a big injury to Jared
Goff or we see something that really like derails their
entire team. If they're healthy and playing up to their capability, Okay,
maybe they don't cover, but the Lions win. So if
you have the Lions available to you, I mean, if
I think it's a good plaint.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
If Jared Goff was out, well would this spread be
I feel like the Lions would still be a road favorite.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Seven six and a half. Yeah, yeah, somewhere in that range.
I mean the.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Bengals have shown no right, nothing, no.
Speaker 1 (25:40):
No, yeah, you heard of the bone. I mean the Broncos.
That was one of the most I think I saw
the stat the Broncos that was the fourth largest discrepancy
in yards gained versus yards given up in the history
of the Broncos franchise on Monday Night. Like it just
it was a completely other mismatch. And that and I
thought bow Knicks didn't play very well. Bon Nicks was okay,
(26:01):
but I thought they could have that a game could
have been a lot more lopsided if bo Nicks had
played better at the quarterback spot for the Broncos. So,
I mean JK. Dobbins ran all over them. I think
you got to look at both running backs Gibbs anytime touchdown, like,
just go and load up if you're looking for any
time touchdowns and yards over for running backs. With that
Lion's offensive line dominating, they're gonna road grade the Bengals.
(26:23):
That's that's gonna be ug glee. Guys. Want to track
you all your wages in one place, check out the
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(26:44):
Bettingpros dot com, slash tracking or on the Betting Pros app.
All right, as we wrap here, what are plays that
you would make right now? I think we've kind of
covered a lot of them, But Pat, what would you
fire on today? Here? On Tuesday?
Speaker 3 (26:57):
As we tape the one I really want to lock
in before for this number moves matt Is Commander's Chargers
under forty seven and a half and I just I
worry that maybe people are going to realize how compromise
the Chargers are now without Joe Alt he was carted
off last week so not expected to play this week.
(27:18):
They had already lost their other starting offensive tackle, ver
Shawn Slater, so down both starting offensive tackles, Like it's
gotta hurt the outlook for Justin Herbert, and he was
under some pretty heavy duress in that loss to the
Giants in Week four. So as much splashy firepower as
(27:39):
the Chargers have With Herbert playing so well, that wide
receiver trio of Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen and Lad McConkie
and O'marion Hampton running really well. Like the offensive line
is a problem now, no question about that. Jaden Daniels
expected back from a knee injury, but we'll see how
that affects his mobility. I don't know whether he gets
(28:00):
Terry McLaurin back from his quad injury this week. And
the Chargers defense is tough. We've seen that like this
is absolutely absolutely a top ten defense. I think they
ranked sixth in DVOA. This just doesn't feel like a
shootout to me, Matt, and we're getting a pretty big
number on it. So I feel like the under is
a pretty good percentage play here, and I want to
grab it now before this number, you know, before we
(28:23):
lose a point of value as the week goes on.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
I concur but I would go to the side as well.
I think the Chargers bounce back and win this game.
You're absolute right about the offensive line being a question,
but at home the wins over the Chiefs and the Broncos.
For the Chargers, I just think the Commanders. I didn't
like them coming into this season. I don't like them now,
and I mean until even if Daniels comes back, I
(28:48):
still would go ahead and take the Chargers, and you
probably get a better number if Jane Daniels does wind
up playing. But it's Marcus Mariota at the moment and
the numbers two and a half, So two and a
half or three on the Chargers, I think he got it.
Take the Chargers before it goes over. I think if
it is going to be Mariota, for sure, this number
is gonna be three and a half or higher. So
I would one hundred percent jump on this now. And
(29:09):
I think even with the offensive line, look, they should
have won the game against the Giants. I mean there's
two games I'm gonna be furious about for the rest
of the year. The Chargers lost to the Giants and
the Packers lost to the Browns. I mean, these are
games that just you know, right now in the NFL,
if you are laying points on the road, you are
getting destroyed. Okay, just FYI. Home teams are dominating right
(29:33):
now in the NFL. Road teams are having a hard
time winning, let alone covering. They're having a hard time
winning game straight up right now. So I would be
careful about Washington any road team. I would be a
little careful about laying big numbers, like the Lions laying
ten for instance. Be careful on those games, just because
what we've seen from a trend perspective in the NFL.
(29:55):
But the other game, I'd say, I think you have
to take it before it goes to six or higher.
Is we talked about it the open. I just think
the Niners are so banged up, and I think the
Rams are licking their chops. The NFC West has been
weird like this, right, I mean, like the Cardinals, they
can't beat the Seahawks to save their life. The Niners
have a hard time beating the Rams. I think the
Rams wind up getting a w and covering that five
(30:17):
and a half six point spread here. I would lock
that in coming up right now if you guys have
a chance to do so that in closing, any final
thoughts as we head towards Week five.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
You know, keep an eye out for injury news that
can always affect things. But feeling pretty good about the
wagers we talked about today.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Matt, Yeah, I'm with you. I like the card this week.
I didn't love the card last week. I do like
the card this week. And remember, guys, we are into
the first week of buys. Okay, this is a shorter
schedule than usual. Bunch of teams in week five, which
feels really early to take bye weeks, but a bunch
of teams are off on buys. So if you have
fantasy lineups and whatnot, make sure you are checking those
(30:55):
because you may have players who are not playing this
week that you got to go ahead and sit them
on the bench. He's beat Fitz Morris. I am at parolt.
We'll talk to you next week for another episode Week
six of the NFL. Next week, as we get into
it here for Betting Pros.
Speaker 5 (31:08):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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