October 4, 2025 • 21 mins
Join Joe Pisapia and Scott Bogman as they highlight their favorite bets to make for Monday Night Football in Week 5!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Win our latest giveaway! - 0:02:06
Monday Night Football Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars - 0:02:41
Hard Rock Bets Promo - 0:06:54
Trevor Lawrence U 220.5 Passing Yds - 0:08:40
Travis Etienne O 61.5 Rushing Yds - 0:10:11
Xavier Worthy O 67.5 Rush/Rec Yds - 0:12:11
Patrick Mahomes O 35.5 Pass Att - 0:13:52
Isiah Pacheco U 40.5 Rush/Rec Yds - 0:14:53
Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:16:11
Joe's Same Game Parlay of the Week - 0:16:51
Joe's TD Call: Tyquan Thornton - 0:17:45
Bogman's TD Call: Travis Etienne - 0:18:20
Jaguar vs. "Jaguire" PSA - 0:19:16
Outro - 0:21:23
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Piezapa and this
is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to Monday
Night football. And I think this one is just kind
of close your eyes and believe that the Chiefs are back.
That's the point of view I'm taking. We'll see what
point of view Scott Bogman takes on this game here,
because this is definitely a tricky one. It feels a
(00:22):
little trappy after the first couple of weeks of watching
the Chiefs. But regardless, we're gonna give you props, we're
gonna talk same game parlay, we're gonna talk touchdowns, do
it all. Scott Bogman, coming off a three and two
Thursday night, we shifted over the party prop when he
was out, of course, an hour after he recorded the show.
Of course, brock Perty all of a sudden popped up
is out. But mac Jones went over and Bogman alerted me,
(00:45):
just keep it, let it roll, he said, And damn
it it rolled. Indeed, the only thing that didn't roll, unfortunately,
was the Rams over the forty nine ers. I got
that seven yeah, woo, I could have gotten way more.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Yeah, I think you're coming out like an eight and
a half or nine and a half, Like it got
out there pretty quick after we found out that thirty
playing it.
Speaker 1 (01:07):
Felt like the classic. You know, it shouldn't be The
Rams should be able to just whoop on this team
that's got, you know, falling apart at the seams health wise.
And if I've learned one thing in all my years
of watching the NFL, that's just never how it goes
like that. Script just never seems to pay this and
this is my fault.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
All right, I'm gonna go ahead and take the blame
for this one. I was looking at Survivor this week
in one of my Survivor pools, and I went, I've
used a bunch of the good matchups this week. Let
me go ahead and sneak through the Rams at home
on short rest against a team without their starting quarterback,
any of their starting wide receivers, their Pro Bowl tight end.
(01:45):
All they have is bloodsucking Christian McCaffrey, and somehow they
still win this game. All it took was thirty eight
bananas sent to Mac Jones on the sideline, and he
was good to go.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So yeah, crazy times, but again that's in the past.
This is in the future, so again subscribe to the channel,
drop your comments below, and of course don't forget we've
got a new giveaway. It's the Nick Chubb autographed helmet.
We're giving this one away again. Curtesyre are good friends
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(02:19):
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big winner of the Nick Chubb helmet. All right, box,
(02:41):
let's take a look at this game here on Betting Pros.
Here are the consensus lines for the Chiefs and Jags
as of recording this and hopefully Trevor Lawrence and Patrick
Mahomes will play, and we want to have a repeat
of Thursday night where we record a show and an
hour later the qub's changed. But as of right now,
you got your classic minus three Kansas City Chiefs Goo
Vegas is like, you know what, We're not gonna put
(03:02):
our neck out on this one very much. We're just
gonna say the Chiefs minus three, even though it's on
the road that tells you it should be a Chiefs victory.
Here Jacksonville plus three and a half right now, And look,
Jacksonville's played some good football coming off a big win
last week against the forty nine ers. Right maybe game
they should not have won. Forty six and a half
is the under. Forty five and a half is the
over minus won seventy five on the money line for
(03:24):
the Chiefs plus one seventy for the Jaguars. If you
like the upset, I like Kansas City with the three here.
I think they win this one by a touchdown. I
really do get to see Brian Thomas Junior do anything
here yet. I know the Jaguars defense has been opportunistic
unless BTJ really starts getting going. And this is the
game where it happens. I do think they get into
(03:45):
a tough spot here. I think Xavier Worthy being back
healthy is obviously huge for them. Taekwan Thornton's been emerging.
I'd love to see Bershard Smith touch the football more.
That's my love letter to you, Andy Reid this week.
He seems like the more explosive of any of the
running backs currently are working. Let's get the kid. I
don't know ten to fifteen times he.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Said they're gonna expand his role, so.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
Well, it's about damn time. So let's expand the role
here and hopefully we get that. And if so, I
think this three is comfortable with the Chiefs. Again, Am
I going crazy about it?
Speaker 2 (04:15):
No?
Speaker 1 (04:16):
But Bogs, where's your lean here when you're looking at
Monday night football? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I mean listen, like, the Niners screwed me over two
weeks in a row, and the Jaguars were part of
that last week, right beating the Niners on the road
all the way across the country in a game they
probably had no business winning. They just beat up the
Niners apparently. But yeah, I just I don't have a
great feel for them, and I like you the coaching
(04:41):
definitely goes to Andy Reid and Spagnolo on the Chiefs
side in this matchup. But Cohen has been good in
the Jaguars offense has been really running the ball well.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Like Trevor Lawrence has not played well at all.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Maybe that changes, maybe it doesn't, but the run game
has worked for them, but they we don't match up well.
This is a tough run defense and very good in coverage.
The Chiefs are very good in coverage, right. I do
think that on the offensive side for the Chiefs, they
also match up better against the Jaguars. They can pass
(05:16):
the ball. The secondary is still kind of weak. Run
defense has been good for Jacksonville, but I think they
can get beat specifically deep. So yeah, I just I
like the Jacksonville's at home, But that's about the only
advantage I feel like they have in this one.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
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(05:53):
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(06:14):
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(06:57):
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in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, let's talk
(07:19):
about Trevor Lawrence here. Let's start with two twenty and
a half. This is immediately where I went to. This
is I think the safest and probably best bet you
can make on the prop side here. I do think
he is. He looks he's been struggling Bogs. You like
the under here. I like the under here too, want
you to continue to break down a little bit of
the why too, because again, the strengths of the Kansas
City is the fact that they've been tough there on
(07:40):
these teams throw in the football.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, I mean I think I think this is just
not a great matchup for Trevor Lawrence. And also his
completion percentage has been garbage this year, specifically to BTJ. Right,
we know that, so two and two this season, two
this total, it's two hundred and twenty and a half.
I'm going to take the under. The Chiefs are thirtieth
in RUNDE defense grade, first in coverage grade, so you
(08:03):
know they can be physical against the run. They haven't
been good this year, but I just think that this
is why I like ETN and I don't particularly like
Trevor Lawrence or the pass catches this week, so statistically
Casey is eighth against the pass as well. I just
think they tamp down this already kind of weak Jacksonville
(08:23):
passing game. So I'm gonna go with the under on
this even I think maybe they are playing catchup in
this game a little bit. But Jacksonville's nineteenth and pass
play percentage, Like I said, the run has been working.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
They want to run the ball should work.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Better than the pass against the Chiefs, So I think
that's gonna be the game plan going in all.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Right, So we're in agreement on this one for sure.
Let's say the next one of Travis ATN sixty one
and a half rushing yards now looking over at betting
pros too, He's hit this in three the last four weeks,
so that is huge. So Travis ATN, look he's the
lead guy. Tooton's gonna get his as well. But it's
really been I'm again, I kept coming back to this
and people in the fantasy space did not want to
hear me. I'm like, this guy was RB three two
(09:08):
years ago. We just want to throw that out the
window and not pay attention to that. He was basically
a free square running back and he's gotten off to
a good start so far this year.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Yeah, I just think sixty one and a half is
too low for him. And I agree specifically with the
Chiefs Rundee struggling recently. The only I mean they were
okay against the Eagles, right, like we saw, Chris Jones,
you didn't even get a hundred yards or whatever, you know.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
But we wanted to get.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
Yeah, we won the game.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Yeah, so and then aj Brown came over. No, he
didn't get a hundred yards. You're right, you're right, Chris Jones.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
But I mean, Travis Etn is averaging sixteen and a
half rushing attempts per game right now, so if he's
going to get that in this game. And we talked
about how this team is a below average passing team
in terms of attempts, they run the ball at a
much higher percentage than most teams. So I think Etn
is going to have seventeen to twenty carries in this
(10:02):
game like he typically does, and I think he's gonna
have at least a couple big rips. So I think
he can get to this fairly easily. This was but
this was my Kyron Williams from Thursday, which I saw
him get and then lose, and then get and then
fumble away. His total was sixty seven and a half
and he ended up with sixty six.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Brutal, absolutely brutal. Also, Brian Robinson, what it does too.
I don't know. We have to get for and over
for him. Yeah, but Chris McCaffrey might not make it
to week seven at this point.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
I mean, what were they doing?
Speaker 1 (10:35):
Why'd you acquire the guy if you're not gonna use
I mean specifically.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
In that drive right after the half when you're up
two scores, right, like, run your guy?
Speaker 3 (10:45):
What are you doing?
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Bud?
Speaker 2 (10:46):
That's so complain about that later?
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Yeah, all right, let's talk about Xavier Worthy. He returned
and had a big splash game here last week. So
the number is sixty seven and a half for the rushing,
slash receiving yards, which is interesting here as you could
take this one and cover yourself if they get him
on those jets sweeps moving around a little bit, and
we know Andy Reid does like to be clever when
it comes to worthyse usage.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Yeah, and I think it would be a good thing
to do against this front that has been good is
to motion a little bit right. Maybe no walker in
this game for Jacksonville, which would be nice for Kansas
City's front, But I think with a front that has
been beating people like Jacksonville has, I think it'd be
good to do a couple of those shifts and motions,
(11:29):
and he had thirty eight rushing yards on two attempts
last week, so and that was with only playing fifty
nine percent of snaps. Now, you know they were beating
the brakes off Baltimore at the end of that game,
so I think that that was probably part of it.
But Jacksonville's twenty four statistically against the past their third
and coverage grade. But digging deeper, you see that they
faced Bryce Young, and they injured Joe Burrow, c. J
(11:52):
Stroud and perty off of turf toe, so it's not
like they've really been challenged. So Andy Reid is a challenge.
Xavier Worth is a challenge, specifically now that he's healthy.
So I think sixty seven and a half. I think
he gets the majority of this, probably on a big play,
so like thirty or forty yards on one big one
and then you're just hoping for four or five other
(12:13):
catches and he's gonna sail way past this, and if
he snaps off one of those jet sweeps, that's gonna
be a big chunk of this too. So Worthy can
do this with volume or on a big play. So
this is probably my favorite play out of this game.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
All right, we got another one here lined up after
you have say, if you're worthy, we'll talk about Patrick
Mahomes over thirty five and a half pass attempts. This
ones at minus one oh eight. Again, he sit this
three the last four weeks, So this is I think
a pretty good bet.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Here, and the under is juiced.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
It's wages, yes, so that kind of shades you towards
the over also. But Jacksonville opponents this season, they're attempts
thirty five, forty five, thirty eight, thirty eight. They have
the fifth highest opponents attempts per game against, and they
have the second highest opposite position passing play percentage. So
Jacksonville has been winning a lot of games. So that's
(13:06):
part of it. But I also think that the secondary
is weaker than the front. So like we talked about,
you do those jet motions, you do some quick outs.
That gives you a little bit more time to build
for that deep ball a little bit later in the game.
So yeah, I just think that Mahomes is going to
have a lot of short, easy completions, specifically because the
stupid run game has not been working for Kansas City
(13:27):
at all. Like you said, give me Brishard Smith. None
of these losers have been working.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
Speaking of the stupid run game, let's talk about I
say a pacheco forty and a half rushing slash receiving yards.
I assume if we again believe Andy Reid and he's
telling us the truth and they are gonna get Richard
Smith more action, shouldn't that mean theoretically we're an under
on this Pacheco number.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Yeah, forty and a half and this is total yards.
Like you know, I understand this is a low number,
but this dude was down to thirty seven percent of
snaps and only nine touches last week. So Jacksonville front
has been good against the rush, ninth in rushing yards
yards allowed per attempt three point nine. Rishard Smith, like
you said, is expected to have a more expanded role
(14:13):
or more touches at least this week. And I think
that Mahomes is going to be over on these pass attempts.
So the run game just has not been working for
Kansas City yet. And when they get to the goal line, too,
it's a lot of Kareem Hunt on short yard It's
specifically later in the game because I've been waiting on
those pachecos. Over All, year and they haven't hit because
(14:33):
stupid Kareem Hunt has been in the game late. So
I think let's just take the under and hope this
isn't the Pacheco breakout game, because I don't know. I
don't think he's going to break out. I think he's
still running slow off of that fractured leg from last year.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
All right, Remember, if you need more help with your
prop betting, go to prop bet cheat sheet on the
Betting pros app or just go to bettingpros dot com
slash props. Use it again. All the passing, the rushing,
the receiving, stack categories are all in there. I was
going through it today trying to get my favorite bets,
and there's a great thing there because again, if you're
new to this here or you're watching us for the
first time, you get the opportunity to look at the projections.
(15:12):
You're looking at the numbers, then you're looking at the
best lines, and then you can bet them. So sink
your sports books for free. Use the Betting pros app
bets smarter, not harder. Don't be a tool, use the tools.
Let us help you. Prop betche sheet is one of
the best in the business. If not the best. I
love it. I love it for baseball, specially during the
MLB season. All right, let's get to the SG JOEP again.
(15:32):
Missed it by another one. DeVante Adams no touchdown there.
So it's funny because I thought about the kiren just
putting him instead of DeVante and just you know, making
it less sexy. But I thought, nah, DeVante Adams could
get it done. He couldn't. So again, we're gonna trim
down from the three to the two legs here. I
want to come out with a victory this week. All right,
So let's get Week five here off on a good foot,
(15:55):
and let's get or should I say, leave it on
a good foot. Let's get to Cancery Chiefs minus three
and the Trevor Lawrence under two twelve and a half.
I think those two things together. Again, it's only plus
one eighty four, but I'd rather bet two units on
something that I think is more controllable than one and
just kind of pissed the money away. So I don't
want to do that. I'm not gonna take any chances here.
It's Monday night. I'm gonna keep it simple, stupid, and
(16:17):
I'm gonna go ahead and take the canceling Chiefs minus
three and Trevor Lawrence with the two twelve and a
half passing yards again, that's plus one eighty four bogs.
I was struggling here with touchdown calls, I'll be honest
with you, So I just threw one out there for
Taekwon Thornton at plus four hundred because he's been a
guy that they look at for the big plays and
it's such a big return steal a plus four hundred.
Then I'm like, why not? I mean, Kelsey doesn't make
(16:38):
me feel warm and fuzzy at Pacheco again, I don't
know where we're going with that one. You could look
at Kareem Hunt, but again, does that make me feel great?
I feel like it's Taekwon Thornton. It's Noah Gret. I'm
looking for the weird Patrick Mahomes finds the open guy
touchdowns in the red zone. That's what it feels like
to me anyway. But again, how are you approaching touchdowns?
(16:59):
You're just keeping Yeah, I'm.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Gonna get I'm going to use the kiss method, as
you mentioned before, they keep it simple, stupid. I'm just
going to take Travis Etn and take him at minus
one fifteen. Now I actually did take him at You
can see how much influence I have on the market, clearly,
because I have a whole one unit bet on ETN
to score touchdown already and I got it at plus
(17:21):
one forty five. But it's now down to minus one fifteen. Clearly,
my one unit bet shifted the entire market here. But no,
I think that's uh, it's just the easiest one to
pick this week. I mean, Kansas City scores with all
kinds of different guys. Juju scored a couple of weeks ago.
Sometimes it's cream hunt, sometimes it's the checko. So taekwon Thornton, Like, hey,
(17:43):
let's take him on a deep hitter for plus four hundred.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
That's fine.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Yeah, I'm just going to do the kiss and say
ETN minus one fifteen seems like seems like the most
likely call.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
In this game.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
All right, well, let's learn something here today. At the
end of the show. Kids, you remember our g I
Joe back in the day, he used to do that thing,
would teach you something.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Yeah, I want to do that.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Right, you know the battle don't leave that fire hydrant on, Timmy.
You know the fire Department's gonna come on and they're
not gonna have any water to put out that fire
in your house, and everyone's gonna die a horrible death.
So people pronounce jaguar as jaguar due to folk etymology
and the naturals. From my entomology, You got your entomology on,
(18:28):
So here's what you get. The word jaguar comes from
the indigenous Amazonian language via Portuguese, so I obviously much
more of the Amazonian uh and Portuguese side of things.
And then you are much more of the English sounding
leading to the word jaguar. So there from Dutch Guiana.
But and I'm obviously much more smarty than you. So
(18:49):
there you have everybody. Now we've settled that debate once
and for all, and everybody has learned something called.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
The London Monarchs. In a couple of years when.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Con moves, maybe that'll help taking these jaguars out of
my country. You get, you get the hell out. You
can't win no games, hey man, We're gonna see it.
I mean it's.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Becoming south of half your games you're played in London.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Do you think the players hate it? Do you think
they hate going over there?
Speaker 3 (19:19):
Yes? I listen.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
I think that's completely routine. They're such crazy, that's it.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
I don't think they hate the country or the people
of the fans, but I love the experience.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
But they hate being out of the routine.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
But I mean, how would you like to take your
everything that you do all week for your work and
have to do it in a different country in an
away game Like that just doesn't.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Seem like a lot of that kind of money.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
I think, yes, I agree with that, Like you can't
complain about it. But that's what even call them jaguars
to that. It's like this job, Like you know, someone's like, hey,
can you fill in the shift. I'm never like, oh no,
I can't do that. I don't want to work. I'm
always like yes or no, because we ain't thinking ditches,
we're just talking football.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
This is fun. This is a good time.
Speaker 3 (19:58):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
It's fun and we've earned this position here, all right.
So again, make sure you download the bang pros app,
make sure you subscribe to the channel. Again. Shout out
to everybody helping us get to seventy thousand this week.
Very exciting. Let's get to eighty thousand, Let's get to ninety.
Let's get to one hundred babay, so let's go, so
subscribe to the YouTube channel. Drop your comments below. What
are your favorite picks from Monday Night Football? That'll do
it for us, but the story of the game goes
(20:19):
on For Scott Bogman, I'm Joey P. We'll see you
next time. Kids.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
Follow us on x.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Jo
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Piezapa and this
is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to Monday
Night football. And I think this one is just kind
of close your eyes and believe that the Chiefs are back.
That's the point of view I'm taking. We'll see what
point of view Scott Bogman takes on this game here,
because this is definitely a tricky one. It feels a
(00:22):
little trappy after the first couple of weeks of watching
the Chiefs. But regardless, we're gonna give you props, we're
gonna talk same game parlay, we're gonna talk touchdowns, do
it all. Scott Bogman, coming off a three and two
Thursday night, we shifted over the party prop when he
was out, of course, an hour after he recorded the show.
Of course, brock Perty all of a sudden popped up
is out. But mac Jones went over and Bogman alerted me,
(00:45):
just keep it, let it roll, he said, And damn
it it rolled. Indeed, the only thing that didn't roll, unfortunately,
was the Rams over the forty nine ers. I got
that seven yeah, woo, I could have gotten way more.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Yeah, I think you're coming out like an eight and
a half or nine and a half, Like it got
out there pretty quick after we found out that thirty
playing it.
Speaker 1 (01:07):
Felt like the classic. You know, it shouldn't be The
Rams should be able to just whoop on this team
that's got, you know, falling apart at the seams health wise.
And if I've learned one thing in all my years
of watching the NFL, that's just never how it goes
like that. Script just never seems to pay this and
this is my fault.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
All right, I'm gonna go ahead and take the blame
for this one. I was looking at Survivor this week
in one of my Survivor pools, and I went, I've
used a bunch of the good matchups this week. Let
me go ahead and sneak through the Rams at home
on short rest against a team without their starting quarterback,
any of their starting wide receivers, their Pro Bowl tight end.
(01:45):
All they have is bloodsucking Christian McCaffrey, and somehow they
still win this game. All it took was thirty eight
bananas sent to Mac Jones on the sideline, and he
was good to go.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So yeah, crazy times, but again that's in the past.
This is in the future, so again subscribe to the channel,
drop your comments below, and of course don't forget we've
got a new giveaway. It's the Nick Chubb autographed helmet.
We're giving this one away again. Curtesyre are good friends
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(02:19):
review of the Betting Pros podcasts, or subscribe to our
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big winner of the Nick Chubb helmet. All right, box,
(02:41):
let's take a look at this game here on Betting Pros.
Here are the consensus lines for the Chiefs and Jags
as of recording this and hopefully Trevor Lawrence and Patrick
Mahomes will play, and we want to have a repeat
of Thursday night where we record a show and an
hour later the qub's changed. But as of right now,
you got your classic minus three Kansas City Chiefs Goo
Vegas is like, you know what, We're not gonna put
(03:02):
our neck out on this one very much. We're just
gonna say the Chiefs minus three, even though it's on
the road that tells you it should be a Chiefs victory.
Here Jacksonville plus three and a half right now, And look,
Jacksonville's played some good football coming off a big win
last week against the forty nine ers. Right maybe game
they should not have won. Forty six and a half
is the under. Forty five and a half is the
over minus won seventy five on the money line for
(03:24):
the Chiefs plus one seventy for the Jaguars. If you
like the upset, I like Kansas City with the three here.
I think they win this one by a touchdown. I
really do get to see Brian Thomas Junior do anything
here yet. I know the Jaguars defense has been opportunistic
unless BTJ really starts getting going. And this is the
game where it happens. I do think they get into
(03:45):
a tough spot here. I think Xavier Worthy being back
healthy is obviously huge for them. Taekwan Thornton's been emerging.
I'd love to see Bershard Smith touch the football more.
That's my love letter to you, Andy Reid this week.
He seems like the more explosive of any of the
running backs currently are working. Let's get the kid. I
don't know ten to fifteen times he.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Said they're gonna expand his role, so.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
Well, it's about damn time. So let's expand the role
here and hopefully we get that. And if so, I
think this three is comfortable with the Chiefs. Again, Am
I going crazy about it?
Speaker 2 (04:15):
No?
Speaker 1 (04:16):
But Bogs, where's your lean here when you're looking at
Monday night football? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I mean listen, like, the Niners screwed me over two
weeks in a row, and the Jaguars were part of
that last week, right beating the Niners on the road
all the way across the country in a game they
probably had no business winning. They just beat up the
Niners apparently. But yeah, I just I don't have a
great feel for them, and I like you the coaching
(04:41):
definitely goes to Andy Reid and Spagnolo on the Chiefs
side in this matchup. But Cohen has been good in
the Jaguars offense has been really running the ball well.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Like Trevor Lawrence has not played well at all.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Maybe that changes, maybe it doesn't, but the run game
has worked for them, but they we don't match up well.
This is a tough run defense and very good in coverage.
The Chiefs are very good in coverage, right. I do
think that on the offensive side for the Chiefs, they
also match up better against the Jaguars. They can pass
(05:16):
the ball. The secondary is still kind of weak. Run
defense has been good for Jacksonville, but I think they
can get beat specifically deep. So yeah, I just I
like the Jacksonville's at home, But that's about the only
advantage I feel like they have in this one.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
You know what we do want. We want you to
download the hard Rock Bet app. That's what we want.
How about that for a segue? Hard Rock Bet Sports
Book app right now, download it. Roll with hard Rock
Bet this season. Sign up the hard Rock Bet Way
today and place your first bet five dollars. If it wins,
you get one hundred and fifty bonus bets on top
of your winnings. How about them apples, And it's just
one more reason to check out the hard rock Bet
(05:53):
app and see why I get so many stars and
such great ratings. Again, it's our last show here before
we're going into the Sunday games and Monday Night football.
So if you want more insights, check out the hard
Rock Bet stats hub. It's right there on the app.
Buffalo has won thirteen to row at home, Phillies won
twelve straight at home, Hertz has reached the end zone
six consecutive games. All those stats right at your fingertips
(06:14):
so you could use them to make the best wagers possible.
And on hard Rock Bet you also get the profit
boosts for football parlays every day through Monday night football
back to back with college profit boosts. Today it's Saturday
all over the place. You also get the profit boost
on Sunday's games and another on Monday night, so there's
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(06:36):
you'll be able to get those NFL and college football picks.
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(06:57):
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nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois,
in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, let's talk
(07:19):
about Trevor Lawrence here. Let's start with two twenty and
a half. This is immediately where I went to. This
is I think the safest and probably best bet you
can make on the prop side here. I do think
he is. He looks he's been struggling Bogs. You like
the under here. I like the under here too, want
you to continue to break down a little bit of
the why too, because again, the strengths of the Kansas
City is the fact that they've been tough there on
(07:40):
these teams throw in the football.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, I mean I think I think this is just
not a great matchup for Trevor Lawrence. And also his
completion percentage has been garbage this year, specifically to BTJ. Right,
we know that, so two and two this season, two
this total, it's two hundred and twenty and a half.
I'm going to take the under. The Chiefs are thirtieth
in RUNDE defense grade, first in coverage grade, so you
(08:03):
know they can be physical against the run. They haven't
been good this year, but I just think that this
is why I like ETN and I don't particularly like
Trevor Lawrence or the pass catches this week, so statistically
Casey is eighth against the pass as well. I just
think they tamp down this already kind of weak Jacksonville
(08:23):
passing game. So I'm gonna go with the under on
this even I think maybe they are playing catchup in
this game a little bit. But Jacksonville's nineteenth and pass
play percentage, Like I said, the run has been working.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
They want to run the ball should work.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Better than the pass against the Chiefs, So I think
that's gonna be the game plan going in all.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Right, So we're in agreement on this one for sure.
Let's say the next one of Travis ATN sixty one
and a half rushing yards now looking over at betting
pros too, He's hit this in three the last four weeks,
so that is huge. So Travis ATN, look he's the
lead guy. Tooton's gonna get his as well. But it's
really been I'm again, I kept coming back to this
and people in the fantasy space did not want to
hear me. I'm like, this guy was RB three two
(09:08):
years ago. We just want to throw that out the
window and not pay attention to that. He was basically
a free square running back and he's gotten off to
a good start so far this year.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Yeah, I just think sixty one and a half is
too low for him. And I agree specifically with the
Chiefs Rundee struggling recently. The only I mean they were
okay against the Eagles, right, like we saw, Chris Jones,
you didn't even get a hundred yards or whatever, you know.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
But we wanted to get.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
Yeah, we won the game.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Yeah, so and then aj Brown came over. No, he
didn't get a hundred yards. You're right, you're right, Chris Jones.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
But I mean, Travis Etn is averaging sixteen and a
half rushing attempts per game right now, so if he's
going to get that in this game. And we talked
about how this team is a below average passing team
in terms of attempts, they run the ball at a
much higher percentage than most teams. So I think Etn
is going to have seventeen to twenty carries in this
(10:02):
game like he typically does, and I think he's gonna
have at least a couple big rips. So I think
he can get to this fairly easily. This was but
this was my Kyron Williams from Thursday, which I saw
him get and then lose, and then get and then
fumble away. His total was sixty seven and a half
and he ended up with sixty six.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Brutal, absolutely brutal. Also, Brian Robinson, what it does too.
I don't know. We have to get for and over
for him. Yeah, but Chris McCaffrey might not make it
to week seven at this point.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
I mean, what were they doing?
Speaker 1 (10:35):
Why'd you acquire the guy if you're not gonna use
I mean specifically.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
In that drive right after the half when you're up
two scores, right, like, run your guy?
Speaker 3 (10:45):
What are you doing?
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Bud?
Speaker 2 (10:46):
That's so complain about that later?
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Yeah, all right, let's talk about Xavier Worthy. He returned
and had a big splash game here last week. So
the number is sixty seven and a half for the rushing,
slash receiving yards, which is interesting here as you could
take this one and cover yourself if they get him
on those jets sweeps moving around a little bit, and
we know Andy Reid does like to be clever when
it comes to worthyse usage.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Yeah, and I think it would be a good thing
to do against this front that has been good is
to motion a little bit right. Maybe no walker in
this game for Jacksonville, which would be nice for Kansas
City's front, But I think with a front that has
been beating people like Jacksonville has, I think it'd be
good to do a couple of those shifts and motions,
(11:29):
and he had thirty eight rushing yards on two attempts
last week, so and that was with only playing fifty
nine percent of snaps. Now, you know they were beating
the brakes off Baltimore at the end of that game,
so I think that that was probably part of it.
But Jacksonville's twenty four statistically against the past their third
and coverage grade. But digging deeper, you see that they
faced Bryce Young, and they injured Joe Burrow, c. J
(11:52):
Stroud and perty off of turf toe, so it's not
like they've really been challenged. So Andy Reid is a challenge.
Xavier Worth is a challenge, specifically now that he's healthy.
So I think sixty seven and a half. I think
he gets the majority of this, probably on a big play,
so like thirty or forty yards on one big one
and then you're just hoping for four or five other
(12:13):
catches and he's gonna sail way past this, and if
he snaps off one of those jet sweeps, that's gonna
be a big chunk of this too. So Worthy can
do this with volume or on a big play. So
this is probably my favorite play out of this game.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
All right, we got another one here lined up after
you have say, if you're worthy, we'll talk about Patrick
Mahomes over thirty five and a half pass attempts. This
ones at minus one oh eight. Again, he sit this
three the last four weeks, So this is I think
a pretty good bet.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Here, and the under is juiced.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
It's wages, yes, so that kind of shades you towards
the over also. But Jacksonville opponents this season, they're attempts
thirty five, forty five, thirty eight, thirty eight. They have
the fifth highest opponents attempts per game against, and they
have the second highest opposite position passing play percentage. So
Jacksonville has been winning a lot of games. So that's
(13:06):
part of it. But I also think that the secondary
is weaker than the front. So like we talked about,
you do those jet motions, you do some quick outs.
That gives you a little bit more time to build
for that deep ball a little bit later in the game.
So yeah, I just think that Mahomes is going to
have a lot of short, easy completions, specifically because the
stupid run game has not been working for Kansas City
(13:27):
at all. Like you said, give me Brishard Smith. None
of these losers have been working.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
Speaking of the stupid run game, let's talk about I
say a pacheco forty and a half rushing slash receiving yards.
I assume if we again believe Andy Reid and he's
telling us the truth and they are gonna get Richard
Smith more action, shouldn't that mean theoretically we're an under
on this Pacheco number.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Yeah, forty and a half and this is total yards.
Like you know, I understand this is a low number,
but this dude was down to thirty seven percent of
snaps and only nine touches last week. So Jacksonville front
has been good against the rush, ninth in rushing yards
yards allowed per attempt three point nine. Rishard Smith, like
you said, is expected to have a more expanded role
(14:13):
or more touches at least this week. And I think
that Mahomes is going to be over on these pass attempts.
So the run game just has not been working for
Kansas City yet. And when they get to the goal line, too,
it's a lot of Kareem Hunt on short yard It's
specifically later in the game because I've been waiting on
those pachecos. Over All, year and they haven't hit because
(14:33):
stupid Kareem Hunt has been in the game late. So
I think let's just take the under and hope this
isn't the Pacheco breakout game, because I don't know. I
don't think he's going to break out. I think he's
still running slow off of that fractured leg from last year.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
All right, Remember, if you need more help with your
prop betting, go to prop bet cheat sheet on the
Betting pros app or just go to bettingpros dot com
slash props. Use it again. All the passing, the rushing,
the receiving, stack categories are all in there. I was
going through it today trying to get my favorite bets,
and there's a great thing there because again, if you're
new to this here or you're watching us for the
first time, you get the opportunity to look at the projections.
(15:12):
You're looking at the numbers, then you're looking at the
best lines, and then you can bet them. So sink
your sports books for free. Use the Betting pros app
bets smarter, not harder. Don't be a tool, use the tools.
Let us help you. Prop betche sheet is one of
the best in the business. If not the best. I
love it. I love it for baseball, specially during the
MLB season. All right, let's get to the SG JOEP again.
(15:32):
Missed it by another one. DeVante Adams no touchdown there.
So it's funny because I thought about the kiren just
putting him instead of DeVante and just you know, making
it less sexy. But I thought, nah, DeVante Adams could
get it done. He couldn't. So again, we're gonna trim
down from the three to the two legs here. I
want to come out with a victory this week. All right,
So let's get Week five here off on a good foot,
(15:55):
and let's get or should I say, leave it on
a good foot. Let's get to Cancery Chiefs minus three
and the Trevor Lawrence under two twelve and a half.
I think those two things together. Again, it's only plus
one eighty four, but I'd rather bet two units on
something that I think is more controllable than one and
just kind of pissed the money away. So I don't
want to do that. I'm not gonna take any chances here.
It's Monday night. I'm gonna keep it simple, stupid, and
(16:17):
I'm gonna go ahead and take the canceling Chiefs minus
three and Trevor Lawrence with the two twelve and a
half passing yards again, that's plus one eighty four bogs.
I was struggling here with touchdown calls, I'll be honest
with you, So I just threw one out there for
Taekwon Thornton at plus four hundred because he's been a
guy that they look at for the big plays and
it's such a big return steal a plus four hundred.
Then I'm like, why not? I mean, Kelsey doesn't make
(16:38):
me feel warm and fuzzy at Pacheco again, I don't
know where we're going with that one. You could look
at Kareem Hunt, but again, does that make me feel great?
I feel like it's Taekwon Thornton. It's Noah Gret. I'm
looking for the weird Patrick Mahomes finds the open guy
touchdowns in the red zone. That's what it feels like
to me anyway. But again, how are you approaching touchdowns?
(16:59):
You're just keeping Yeah, I'm.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Gonna get I'm going to use the kiss method, as
you mentioned before, they keep it simple, stupid. I'm just
going to take Travis Etn and take him at minus
one fifteen. Now I actually did take him at You
can see how much influence I have on the market, clearly,
because I have a whole one unit bet on ETN
to score touchdown already and I got it at plus
(17:21):
one forty five. But it's now down to minus one fifteen. Clearly,
my one unit bet shifted the entire market here. But no,
I think that's uh, it's just the easiest one to
pick this week. I mean, Kansas City scores with all
kinds of different guys. Juju scored a couple of weeks ago.
Sometimes it's cream hunt, sometimes it's the checko. So taekwon Thornton, Like, hey,
(17:43):
let's take him on a deep hitter for plus four hundred.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
That's fine.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Yeah, I'm just going to do the kiss and say
ETN minus one fifteen seems like seems like the most
likely call.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
In this game.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
All right, well, let's learn something here today. At the
end of the show. Kids, you remember our g I
Joe back in the day, he used to do that thing,
would teach you something.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Yeah, I want to do that.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Right, you know the battle don't leave that fire hydrant on, Timmy.
You know the fire Department's gonna come on and they're
not gonna have any water to put out that fire
in your house, and everyone's gonna die a horrible death.
So people pronounce jaguar as jaguar due to folk etymology
and the naturals. From my entomology, You got your entomology on,
(18:28):
So here's what you get. The word jaguar comes from
the indigenous Amazonian language via Portuguese, so I obviously much
more of the Amazonian uh and Portuguese side of things.
And then you are much more of the English sounding
leading to the word jaguar. So there from Dutch Guiana.
But and I'm obviously much more smarty than you. So
(18:49):
there you have everybody. Now we've settled that debate once
and for all, and everybody has learned something called.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
The London Monarchs. In a couple of years when.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Con moves, maybe that'll help taking these jaguars out of
my country. You get, you get the hell out. You
can't win no games, hey man, We're gonna see it.
I mean it's.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Becoming south of half your games you're played in London.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Do you think the players hate it? Do you think
they hate going over there?
Speaker 3 (19:19):
Yes? I listen.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
I think that's completely routine. They're such crazy, that's it.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
I don't think they hate the country or the people
of the fans, but I love the experience.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
But they hate being out of the routine.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
But I mean, how would you like to take your
everything that you do all week for your work and
have to do it in a different country in an
away game Like that just doesn't.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Seem like a lot of that kind of money.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
I think, yes, I agree with that, Like you can't
complain about it. But that's what even call them jaguars
to that. It's like this job, Like you know, someone's like, hey,
can you fill in the shift. I'm never like, oh no,
I can't do that. I don't want to work. I'm
always like yes or no, because we ain't thinking ditches,
we're just talking football.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
This is fun. This is a good time.
Speaker 3 (19:58):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
It's fun and we've earned this position here, all right.
So again, make sure you download the bang pros app,
make sure you subscribe to the channel. Again. Shout out
to everybody helping us get to seventy thousand this week.
Very exciting. Let's get to eighty thousand, Let's get to ninety.
Let's get to one hundred babay, so let's go, so
subscribe to the YouTube channel. Drop your comments below. What
are your favorite picks from Monday Night Football? That'll do
it for us, but the story of the game goes
(20:19):
on For Scott Bogman, I'm Joey P. We'll see you
next time. Kids.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
Follow us on x.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Jo
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