October 7, 2025 • 35 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite Week 6 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Week 5 Recap - 0:00:20
Eagles -7.5 at Giants - 0:03:41
Broncos vs Jets in London - 0:07:05
Colts -6.5 vs Cardinals - 0:09:14
49ers vs Bucs - 0:10:21
Bears +4.5 vs Commanders - 0:14:48
Jaguars -1.5 vs Seahawks - 0:
BettingPros App - 0:21:33
Survivor Picks - Packers and Colts - 0:21:49
Hard Rock Bets - 0:25:34
Lock It In Early - 0:26:39
Betting Pros Pick Tracker - 0:32:47
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's up, guys? How are you welcome to Week six?
It's time for early bet Survivor picks and things you
guys can fire on right now for the upcoming NFL season.
He's Patsmorts. I'm Matt Perultz.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Pat.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
We've been good giving people some plays early in the
week before the lines are moving. Good week last week
for us? How are you week six? I can't believe
Brardy here?
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, season zipping along. I am doing great, Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Aside from the worst Survivor beat, I think it has
to be in history, right, Cardinals. I think a lot
of people got tripped up by that. But the way
it went down was just I mean three or four
of the most comically. The de Mercado fumble that probably
wasn't even a fumble. I don't know how they reversed
(00:47):
the on field ruling because it didn't look like he
clearly lost it before he hit the goal line.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
But never mind.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Should have been focused, should have been running hard and
not slowing down and dropping the ball randomly. I'm not
sure why people have that inclination to drop the ball
like it's five hundred degrees. The snap off Kyler Murray's
helmets the botched interception and fumble recovery with it being
kicked into the end.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
It was just a comedy.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Of errors, Matt, and it was hard to take if
you had the Cardinals and Survivor.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Which I did. I had them in Survivor, I had
them in a teaser. I laid the seven. I've been
betting for a while. Mike Palm, who's the vice president
of Circus Sports, who is one of the Grand poobas
of the Circus Survivor, which is kind of like the
gold standard of all Survivor contests. They lost about seventy
percent last week of the remaining content contestants that were
(01:43):
available for the one thousand dollars per entury winner take
all Survivor pool, which is around eighteen million dollars that's
up for grabs. He called it the worst Survivor beat
in the history of Survivors. And those are guys who
watch it every day, who are around this all the time,
And I would agree with him that that just not
that the upset happened because the Rams were the number
(02:04):
one pick of the week and they lost on Thursday,
so that started the week off badly. But the Cardinals
being the second most popular pick I was on the
Cardinals is the way, like you mentioned, just the way
that everything went in the second half for a game
that was twenty one to six, and you felt me
felt very good about everything. I felt very good about
the seven points I laid, felt very good about the
(02:26):
teaser that I bet, and felt very good about the
survivor pick going in with the Cardinals. And then it
was like a sand castle getting washed away by the tide.
I just I could not believe what I was witnessing
and what I was watching.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
De Mercatto just he scores, it's twenty eight to six.
Then even the Titans, like when they scored to cut
it to nine points and choosing to kick the extra
point there and maybe go for like wrong decision, and
then he misses the extra point, like the Titans didn't
even want to take that game from the Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
Fat yeah, yeah. And you give cam mood his first victory.
You give Brian Callahan some breathing room because he was
on the way out. I could see that team firing
him on the way home because of how poorly things
have gone. You got the quarterback coming out there talking
about how badly they were. They only had six points,
so it could have been a twenty eight to six
loss in the desert and things are just unraveling and
(03:20):
maybe they just make the change. It really could change
the whole fortunes of that entire franchise in Brian Callahan,
if they do put together any type of win streak,
which I don't think they're going to, by the way,
but if they were to, I could change a lot.
I think it was just a lucky break for them.
But we'll see how it goes for this week. All right,
let's get to the game Thursday. The Eagles are on
(03:41):
the road against the Giants. It's seven or seven and
a half pat This number is forty one from a
total perspective. Some books are at forty one and a half.
It opened at forty one and a half. You like
a play in this game early? You want to get
on the Eagles? Now?
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Yes, I do want to get on the Eagles, and
I know taking a bit big road dog, especially one
that hasn't been sharp. I mean the Eagles have been
I believe, outgained in every game they've played this season,
but they did manage to win four of those games
before finally getting tripped up at home against the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
And like not a dishonorable loss.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
The Broncos are a scrappy team, like their quality team,
so I don't think that was an atrocious loss. But
I just look at the competition here, Matt. The Giants
like they have nothing on offense except Cam's kataboo to
grind out, you know, yardage four and five yards at
a pop. No passing game. Jackson Dart is a one
(04:39):
read quarterback. If he doesn't have his first read open,
he's just going to take off and run and he's
going to get sacked a lot.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
He's going to throw some interceptions.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
He has no credible weaponry at wide receiver now that
Malik Neighbors is out for the season. So I just
don't think the Giants have enough firepower to hang in there.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
With the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
The Eagles offensive struggles, you know, they have not been
the Philadelphia Eagles of twenty twenty four, that's for sure,
but they still have a lot more use than the Giants,
and I think they're gonna win big on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I'm with you, and I think, you know, look, seven
or seven and a half has a lot of points
to lay on the road. I'll give it to you.
But the Giants losing against the Saints, and give credit
to our guy, Andrew Erickson, our coworker, who was on
the table telling everybody that the Saints were going to
beat the Giants, and even I was skeptical. On Sunday morning,
we did our livestream and I told him, I was like,
I like to play and I love the play because
(05:33):
I think it could happen. But you know, we're talking
about a quarterback for the Saints and Spencer Ratler who
was zero for ten in his career starting NFL games.
So he gets his first win ever against anyone, and
it's against a Giants team that came off of a
very surprising win the week prior, and now they're back
at home on a short week where the league is now,
(05:55):
as you mentioned, getting some tape on Jackson Dart and
you saw what the Saints were able to do with that,
getting after the quarterback making him uncertain, and he's not
He's a good runner, but he's not like Josh Allen.
You know, he's not gonna go and burn you whenever
you know, the play collapses. He's not going to burn
you the same way. So I think if you do
spy him and you don't make him, don't allow him
(06:16):
to run, you can take away a big weapon for
that offense. And again, I've been on the Giants all
year long, and the move to Jackson's start going to
the under five and a half wins. I bet it
in the summer. I love the fact they went to
him as quickly as they did. The coaching staffs trying
to deflect and say, hey, I got a rookie. You
can't fire us. I got a rookie quarterback. But this
feels like a twenty eight to three type game to me,
(06:38):
Like I don't think the over hits, I don't think
the Giants score very much, and I think it's a
road grading. Just get in there, run the football, score
three touchdowns, four touchdowns, and get home and cover the
seven points. So I'm with you. I think this is
I think the early play. Take the Eagles, lay the seven.
I don't love seven and a half, but lay the
(06:59):
seven for the Eagles. Coming up here on Thursday night
football coming up. We are back to the International Games,
and it's Denver on the road against the New York Jets,
who are an absolute dumpster fire. They're zero to five.
Denver's coming off of a huge win. Speaking of Philadelphia,
they came back, they were down big in the second
half in the Broncos rally to win that game at Philadelphia.
(07:22):
And now they continued on their road trip, second game
in a row away from home, this one going to
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Number opened up at five
and a half. We're up to seven pat with a
total of forty three and a half. We like the
Broncos to go take apart the Jets and drop them
to h to six.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
I think so you said it dumpster fire with the Jets.
That is just one of the doormat teams of the.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
League right now.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
And the Broncos, I think are probably a top ten
team and maybe a little undervalued. Like I was doing
a little tour of some of the power rankings and
a few people didn't have the Broncos as a top
ten team, which prizes me because that defense is top
three for sure, and I know there's not a lot
of faith in bon Knicks, but they also run the
(08:09):
ball pretty well, and Knicks is not asked to do
a whole lot in that offense, you know, and certainly
there might be games where he's forced to do a
lot more, but the Jets, that's probably not an opponent
that is going to force Bonix to bring his a game.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Yeah, this is not on my list, but this is close.
I mean I brought it up because this is if
we were doing four games, this is a game that
I probably would lay the seven with Denver on this
just because the Jets offense is so inept at the moment.
In their defense, which is mostly Aaron Glenn's calling card,
they don't have a takeaway through five weeks. That's a
(08:44):
history making number there, zero to five with no takeaways
through five games. It's first time in the history of
the league that's ever happened. So this defense. Not a
good week to be going overseas, not a good week
to have a shorter week with the Broncos team that
I think this pins the Airs back and really makes
life difficult for justin fields and companies. So, I mean,
(09:05):
Tyrod Taylor, I play in this game. Give it what
the offense looked like last week for the Jets. So
my first play and we were talking about the Cardinals
and the horrible beat. I think the Colts are going
to take apart the Cardinals. I watched it last week.
I don't think that was a fluke. What they did
of the Raiders Indie at home with Shane Steiken in
the Dome with Daniel Jones. This is working. The defense
(09:29):
is good enough to make life difficult on the Cardinals.
I like it under seven at six and a half.
I think you got it now. Colts minus six and
a half against the Cardinals. How do you feel about
that game?
Speaker 3 (09:40):
If the Cardinals can get up off the mats after
that loss they took at home against the Titans last week,
I will tip my hat to Jonathan Gannon and his
staff and take my loss and move on. But I
don't think that's gonna happen, man. I think the Colts
have proved their credibility. They are a legitimately decent, if
(10:03):
not very good team. And yeah, it's hard to imagine
the Cardinals reacting well to the meltdown they had last week.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
You and I are both on this game, but on
different sides. With San Francisco on the road at Tampa.
You like the total, I like the side. Let's start
with your play. What do you like with the forty
nine ers and the Bucks here? It's a four to
thirty kick. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
So the Buccaneers have been over machines the last few weeks.
Their last three games have produced fifty six, fifty six,
and seventy three points. The Buccaneers have scored twenty five
or more points in eight of their last nine home games.
Oddly enough, the one time they didn't score twenty five
points during that stretch was last year at home against
the forty nine Ers. They lost that game twenty three
(10:46):
to twenty. I don't think we see a repeat of
an underscore there. Both of these teams rank in the
top ten in offensive DVA and at the bottom half
of the league in defensive DVA. I think it's gonna
be the offenses here if we get mac Jones again
and not brock Purty, even if the forty nine Ers
are still missing some of their pass catchers.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
I like the Bucks, and I like the laying of
the three points of this game. It opened at one
and a half, it's now three. I don't want it
over three, so I would take it before it does
go over three. Feels like we're already here on a
Tuesday tape. We're at three. There's money coming in here
on Tampa, and I know the Niners. Look. Mac Jones
(11:27):
has played really, really well and you have to be
impressed with his ability to go on the road to
take on a Rams team and beat them when nobody thought,
including me, nobody thought they could do that. That was
the number one Survivor pick. Like I mentioned earlier in
the Circus Survivor here in Vegas, everybody thought the Rams
would win. Didn't happen. This is back to back road
games for mac Jones, and Tampa understands what is happening.
(11:50):
Tampa is still going to be banged up. We'll see
who comes back, if they get their offensive lineman back,
if they get Bucky Irvin back. It's no Mike Evans, like,
what do they look like? But Baker Mayfield I know
better on Baker Mayfield as a favorite is a little
bit dicey last week against Seattle, Baker as a dog.
Everyone I like sometimes when I'm able to talk myself
(12:10):
out of a bet, because I was close to taking
the Seahawks, Like, I was pretty confident when we taped
the show on Tuesday. I was pretty confident I was
going to take the Seahawks against the Bucks. And I'm
glad that I did not, because Tampa scoring thirty eight
points in that game against that defense for Seattle was
eye opening. That was pretty surprising to see that happen.
I really think though that Tampa. I've got a big
(12:32):
ticket on Tampa to win the division. I think Baker's
on off to an MVP type season. He's going to
be in the MVP conversation, I think for most of
the season with the way he is playing right now.
I'll lay the three points. I just think it's the
old adage of teams on the road in back to
back weeks. I know it's a Thursday to Sunday, so
they have extra time to rest. I just think it's
too difficult to ask Mac Jones to go on the
(12:53):
road with a nine ers given the injuries that they've
got to go to Tampa and it could be warm.
We'll see what the weather looks like too for San Francisco,
But I like Tampa. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
On the roading back to back weeks, Matt, and also
the West Coast team traveling east for an early afternoon starts.
And let me ask you this, Matt, what do you
think the number in this game would have been had
the Rams just taken care of business against the forty
nine ers and Thursday Night Football in Week five and
one by a touchdown like this would probably be five
(13:22):
and a half or something, right.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Yeah, I was gonna say six. Yeah, Yeah, I was
gonna say it's gonna be it would be six points.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
So you might be getting a little bit of value here.
And really the only thing that scares me about this
game is betting Baker Mayfield is a favorite.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
That's really right, and maybe that adage is gone. I mean,
maybe that's an overreaction because of the team he's playing
with at the moment, in the fact that Tampa I mean,
going into the season, even with the injuries. Now, I
still feel this way that like you look at this
roster and you look at the coaching, and you look
at the defense and the way that they're playing. I
mean that this is one of the better teams in
the NFC, and they have a chance to remind people
(13:57):
because all eyes are going to be on this game
because it's the Niners and it's Mac Jones and he's
getting all the love and everybody thinks that Mac is
going to take Rock Purty's job, and all these narratives
that have nothing to do with the Bucks, everything to
do with the forty nine ers, And so let's see
how they deal with prosperity. Mac Jones with New England
did not do well with prosperity. When things got good
and the spotlight got bright, mac Jones wilted. So let's
(14:21):
see he's saying all the right things. This is brock Perty,
It's job. I'm just trying to get some wins for Brock.
When Brock comes back. They gave brock Purty one hundred
and eighty one million dollars. So like, if Mac keeps
on playing well, if he goes on the road and
beats the Buccaneers, I mean, this could be more and
more of a difficult choice for that Niner franchise as
to what they do at the quarterback position. But for
(14:42):
this game, I'll take the Buccaneers here. I'll lay the
three points with Tampa. Let's talk Bears and Commanders, and man,
this is going to be a really interesting game. Two
Monday night games we've got again, which I still think
we get rid of Thursday and do this with two
Monday night games Buffalo Atlanta the first, Chicago and Washington
being the second. Pat What do you like about your
(15:03):
Bears against Washington.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
Yeah, so not my Bears.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
I need to clarify that for my Packer fan friends
here before they think I've turned trader on them. But yeah,
so Bears plus four and a half. And I don't
think this is going to jump out as at a
lot of people as a wager they want to make.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
But I like the spot here for the Bears, Matt.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
First of all, Commanders threw a great punch at the
Chargers last week on the road. Can they play two
games that perfectly in a row, Like I just I
like the fact that they're kind of fat and happy
after that convincing win. And now they get a Bears
(15:44):
team coming off a bye. You know, Ben Johnson is
going to have a lot of things cooked up now
that he's had two weeks to prepare for this game.
We're going to see some probably some trickery, some you know,
but like I would expect his early game script to
be pretty a fact against a quality defense. Admittedly, also
(16:04):
for the Bears, Matt, they have a chance to exercise
some demons against the Commanders because they lost that game
with the Hail Mary, the infamous Hail Mary where Tyreek
Stevenson was taunting Commanders fans and then runs back to
make the plane inadvertly tips the ball backwards into the
(16:24):
end zone for a Hail Mary completion to lose the game.
So I think exercising the demons would be pretty important
to this Bears team. I think a lot of guys
in that locker room are probably thinking about how they
lost that game and how nice it would be to
go and beat the Commanders. And the offense has been
clicking pretty well. I mean, they don't have much of
a running game, but everything with the passing game has
(16:46):
looked pretty good lately, and it seems like Caleb Williams
is starting to mesh.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
With what Ben Johnson wants to do.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Big spot for the Bears. I mean, this is big spot,
the Lake game, this is Monday Night. This is a
chants to kind of announce yourself. As you know, Jaden
Daniels was the IT quarterback, young stud quarterback last year.
Caleb goes in there and beats Washington. It's a pretty
big moment for this Bears team in my mind, to
(17:14):
go on the road against the Commanders. I don't have
a play on it, but I'm very interested to see
This is a good spot to watch and learn what
the Bears will look like for the rest of the year,
because if Ben Johnson can do this with Caleb okay,
now you can start some conversations about are they capable
of making the postseason? Are they a wild card team?
Speaker 3 (17:34):
Like?
Speaker 1 (17:34):
Where will the Bears year go from here? If they
go there and lay an egg and get blown off,
blown off the field by the Commanders, things might go
a different direction. So I like the spot. I like
your play. Could be a three point win for the Commanders.
Take the four and a half points with the dog
on the road. I have a hard time seeing the
Bears win the game, but I can see it being
a closer game than the books are giving it to
(17:55):
with a four and a half point number for mine
and I watched it last night. I like the Jaguars.
I think what Liam Cohen's doing here at home again
against Seattle one o'clock start. It's an early kick for
the body clock for Seattle after giving up thirty eight
points at home to the Bucks. This might be just
(18:16):
what the doctor ordered here opened at pick. Now we're
at one and a half or one hard rock bets
at one for the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think you can
jump in and lay the one point here. It's essentially
a money line play on the Jaguars to beat Seattle.
It's just a travel spot for me. I think this
is a tough matchup for the Seahawks to go across
the country, to go into an environment where the Jaguar
(18:37):
fans you saw it last night, they're believing pat they
think they got a team.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Yeah, maybe they do.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
Mat Like, I have a lot of faith in Liam Cohen,
and I know they asked him in the offseason. I
think I was reading an interview with him where they
asked if when he felt like his offense fully kicked
in in Tampa and people understood it, and he said
it took about a month, and so we're at about
a month. So maybe we start to see that offense
(19:06):
comeing to bloom here.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
And the defense has been pretty good too.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Like Josh Heinz Allen and Devin Lloyd, these guys have
been playing out of their minds and they are getting takeaways.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Now.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
I don't know if we can count.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
On the takeaways to continue the way they have fourteen
through five games. That's a lot of takeaways, but I
guess the only hang up I have. Plus, you know
you mentioned the West Coast team traveling east for the
early start, so there is a lot to like with
the Jaguars here. The only hang up I have is
that I think Seattle is undervalued right now, and I
do think they're a really good team. And we saw
(19:38):
the defense slip up a little bit against the Buccaneers
in a game that just wound up being a game
of horse with increasingly difficult shots and just I think
they said in that game mat there were nine touchdowns
and only ten incompletions. Wow, Buccaneers Seahawks. Yeah, crazy back
and forth game. I think the Seattle defense is better
than that, and this offense is really efficient. Sam Donald
(20:02):
has been operating pretty effectively within a run heavy scheme.
The running game hasn't always been great, but it is
making things easier on Sam Donald.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
And it's helped his production.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
So this is probably a stay away from me, but
I get the angle. I understand why you like this game,
and like in the pools, where I'm forced to make
a pick, I'm probably going to take the Jaguars here.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
It's it's a huge way of and I know it's
a shorter week because they played last night on Monday
Night Football against the Chiefs. But and I'm with you
on the on the the interception return for a touchdown
for ninety nine yards and all these turnovers they have
had through the first five weeks is remarkable, and I'm
with you it's not sustainable, But I think there's confidence
growing in that locker room at the moment. And for Seattle.
(20:51):
I like Seattle, okay, I do. I like Mike McDonald.
I like their defense, Sam Darnold on the road Eastern
time zone, like, let's see what he does going there.
And if they go and shut down that Jaguars team
and they get a W, I'll tip my cap and say,
great job, guys, nice bounce back spot. But that loss
to the Bucks worries me about where the Seattle Seahawks
are at the moment. And I mean, I don't want
(21:14):
Seattle in shootouts, Like I don't like the Seahawks offense
to stay in a shootout type situation. That's not how
they're built. They want to run the ball and play
defense and play lower scoring games. And giving up thirty
eight points to the Bucks was okay, a bit eye
opening to me. On that, so I'll take the Jags
lay in just one point, essentially a money line play. Guys,
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Let's talk Survivor and boy oh boy, was a carnage
week last week. So for all those of you who
are still alive in Survivor, tip of the cap, I'm out.
I'm dead. I got tossed by the Cardinals. What do
you like this week? Pat for Survivor picks well.
Speaker 3 (22:15):
With my one Survivor team where I decided to go
with the Colts last week instead of the Cardinals. I'm
gonna go with the Packers. I think they're chalk this
week coming off a bio, though, I should warn that
Matt Lafleur's Packer teams are only three and three off
by weeks.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
They haven't been all that great.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
Yeah, in the first two years he was in Green Bay,
they got their doors blown off in their first game back.
So I guess three and one in their last four
games off by weeks under Lafleur, but not always convincing wins. Still,
you have to think the way the Packers went into
their by the loss to the Browns, the disappointing tie
against the Cowboys, They're probably going to be pretty focused
(22:55):
and fired up coming out at home against this depleted
Bengals team. Bengals can still generate a little bit of
offense with Jamar Chase, but man, their defense can't stop anyone.
Jake Browning is turning the ball over. It's just hard
to see the Packers tripping up here as fourteen and
a half point favorites. And then beyond that, I mean
(23:17):
we talked about the Colton Cardinals, Matt. I mean, I
guess Colts would be second choice for the teams who
have them available, but otherwise, looking at a lot of
road road favorites, big road favorites, like I don't know
how you feel about taking a team in the London
game as a survivor pick, or how about Eagles Giants.
(23:37):
I mean that kind of violates two of your things,
a road team and a division divisional game. Rams At
Do you dare take the rams at the Ravens? I no, Yeah,
so no Raiders.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Unless Lamar is out. If Lamar is out, then maybe,
but until Lamar, until we know about Lamar jackson status.
They have a bye week next week, so probably not
his back, right, Yeah, Lamar sits gets the bye and
then comes back after the bye, but they could very
well be one in five get to the bye week.
So that's the worry that do you really want to?
(24:12):
Don't chance it? Because the offense under Cooper Rush looked
horrific last week for the Ravens, so that's a bit concerning.
I mean, for me, my survivor pick is the Colts.
I think you go turn right around and fade the Cardinals.
And I mean people a lot of people who listen
to Daily Juice called the Cardinals now the Jets of
the West, and I think it's a fair point because
they just can't get out of their own way. And
(24:33):
I think the reaction of the coaching staff following some
of those decisions, following some of those plays kind of
tells you where that team is at the moment. I
don't think they're in a good space mentally, and they're
walking into an environment that I think we do have
to start paying attention to what's going on in Indianapolis
and what Daniel Jones is doing on the road against
(24:53):
the Rams. He was tremendous turning around. Look, the Raiders
are not a good football team, but when you're a
good football team, you're supposed to do that to a
bad football team. They come into your building, you take
them apart systematically, and you make the game into a laugher.
They did that last week. I think it's a good
shot they do it again to Kyler Murray and company here.
(25:15):
I think they've got the pass rush to keep him
in the pocket and make him throw the football. And
I like the Colts defense is a bit underrated, but
the offense is really humming right now. I mean, the
offense is really really doing a good job. So I
think if you have the Colts available, I think that's
a survivor pick to go ahead and jump on the
colts here for this week, guys. Hard Rock Bet is
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Speaker 1 (26:34):
All right, let's talk about a play that you would
lock in right now, Pat, What would you like to
do from a number of perspective that might move as
we get later into the week.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
I want to get the Dolphins as home dogs, catching
four and a half from the Chargers before the public
realizes how beaten up the Chargers are and that maybe
they're not a great investment as a road favorite. We
saw the Chargers really struggle to protect Justin Herbert last
week against the Giants without Joe Alt. They already lost
(27:03):
for Shaun Slater in training camp. Now Joe Alt's gone,
so both of the bookends stud tackles the Chargers had gone.
I think Mkay Beckton got hurt last week too, one
of their starting guards, some sort of hand injury, so
he's going to be out and obviously the loss of
Amarian Hampton is pretty big, so now they can't really
lean on that running game. They've got, you know, the
(27:24):
plotting Hassan Haskins and Kamani Videll at running back. So
don't know how well they'll be able to run, don't
know how well they'll be able to protect Herbert's and
the defense is okay, but I don't know if it
is a lights out defense. I don't think it's the
caliber of Saint Denver's defense and matt Since that thirty
three to eight week one demolition at the hands of
(27:47):
the Colts, the Dolphins have played every game close since then.
Their worst loss over that stretch was that ten point
loss at Buffalo on Thursday night, when we knew that
the Dolphins were right in that game, and had they
not gotten an unfortunate roughing the punter call that gave
the Bills a first down when they were kicking the
(28:08):
ball away in their own territory, things could have been
really tight for the Bills in that one. Other than that,
like Miami's been competitive, this team is not quit on
Mike McDaniel, so I think they can hang with the
Chargers and maybe even pull off the upset this week.
I might consider a money line back here too.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
I like it. I think you know, so much in
the NFL is about spot and who's available. And the
Chargers got off to a really hot start, and we
were talking about them in the West and running away
with the division. And look, they still very well might
win the division, but Denver. If Denver gets the win
over in England, they are in the driver's seat for
the division. After the Chiefs loss to the Jaguars, which
(28:48):
was somewhat surprising, you know, I'm with you. I think
that the Dolphins are playing even without Tyreek and maybe
you know what, I hate to say this. I'm not
saying that you never want anyone injured, but sometimes when
you take away player and you remove certain players from
locker rooms, the teams tend to, you know, pick up
the pace and they get on the same page and
they start to lock in because they know they don't
(29:10):
have one of these players with these elite playmakers, and
also maybe a personality that didn't fit all that well
in that locker room. So I don't love Tua, but
I think I think this is a good spot for
the Dolphins for me, and this is one of those holds,
you'll hold your nose. And I get it when I
say people are gonna go, oh no, you just trashed
Vegas and now you're going to back Vegas. I am.
(29:32):
I don't trust Brian Callahan to keep the Titans off
the strip. I don't We've had the Vegas flu in
the past. I don't trust the Titans to stay away
from the problems here in this city. There is distractions
on distractions, there is you know, this is a young
football team making their first trip out here. I don't
remember the last time the Titans played here in Las Vegas.
(29:55):
And I don't trust the Callahans at all to keep
their guys focused on a football game coming up on Sunday.
And this Raiders team is backs against the wall and
everyone's job is currently I think if they lose to
the Titans at home, we could see some big changes
we could see. I don't think Chip Kelly gets fired,
but I think some coaches might be getting let go
(30:16):
because I don't know if Pete Carroll's going to stick
around long term if this season completely goes south. Remember
he brought in Geno Smith, a veteran quarterback, to win.
Right now, they drafted a running back with a sixth
pick overall when they had multiple problems and they could
have traded down and drafted a whole litany of guys,
they chose to use it on a running back who
(30:38):
is their best offensive player. Okay, I'm not saying that
Ashton Genti has not had a great start to his
NFL career, because he has. But they have bigger problems
than a running back at number six overall, and they
made that decision. So from a GM standpoint, down to
a coach standpoint, down to a distraction standpoint, they're fat
and happy they won. On the road, it's back to
(30:59):
back road trips out West. I don't know if the
Titans are staying out West or not, but I don't
care if they are, it doesn't matter. I want four
and a half. This number is climbing. I would take
Vegas Lane four and a half right now against the Titan.
Speaker 2 (31:10):
You think it's going to go up? Where do you
think it finishes?
Speaker 1 (31:13):
Six? Well, most likely, I think it probably goes up
a good a point in a half rut five at
most books, at some books right now, one books at
five and a half. I just think people are going
to fade back to back road trips for the Titans,
given their youth and the fact that they should have
lost last week to the Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Yeah, I do expect the Raiders to win this game,
but I I just wish I could be a fly
on the wall of the Raiders locker room for a
day to know what the vibe is with this team.
Is Pete Carroll losing the locker room yet or is
he you know, likea in Pete Carroll has been a
big culture guy throughout his coaching tenure in Seattle. Like
(31:51):
we saw, the culture was always good in Seattle, and
I think Pete Carroll's a player's coach, so I do
trust him more than I trust Brian Callahan for sure.
And I think the Raiders probably probably do have the
better roster. You know, they certainly should have the more
competent quarterback, although Gino Smith has not played well. But
it's a scary investment to make Matt. But I do expect,
(32:15):
you know, especially with the game being in Las Vegas,
maybe the money to come in on the Raiders this
the week goes on.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
So getting it now if you like the Raiders makes sense.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
It's a spot. I know they got killed by the
Colts last week. I know things are a dumpster fire
here with the Raiders. It's just if you can't beat
up on the Titans, who are you beating? Like? Who
are you beating the rest of the year If you
can't win this game at home. Given what just happened
on the road to Indianapolis, not not great at all.
I'm very excited to see how this is all going
(32:45):
to play out. Guys want to track all your wages
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(33:05):
slash Trekking, or go to the Betting Pros app pat
Final thoughts before we head off into Week six.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting slate, Matt. I mean,
maybe not my favorite slate of the season so far,
but an interesting one for sure. I just wish that
you were doing the Sunday live stream with Ericson instead
of Terrell this week because I want to see Ericson
kluck his tongue at you for betting Baker Mayfield as
a favorite.
Speaker 1 (33:31):
I get it, I do. I understand his point. I mean,
but I think at some point you just can't play
that narrative all the way. Because the Buccaneers are at home,
and again it's now three. I don't want it over three,
but I think this is a Tampa team. Even though
and Baker has one as a favorite. It's not like
he never wins his favorites. It never covers as a favorite.
He's just a much better bet when he's a dog.
(33:52):
I think the number is seventeen and three now against
the number for Baker Mayfield as a dog in the
NFL last twenty games, so he's been high profitable as
an underdog. But I think of a favorite, he can
take care of business here at home against a banged
up San Francisco team. For me, reminder that Minnesota and Houston,
those are the two teams are on a buy and
(34:12):
that there are two games on Monday Night Football, so
we have Thursday night, Sunday Night, Monday Night with two
games in Minnesota and Houston are on buys. So just
for your fantasy teams and whatever you need to set
from roster standpoint, DFS standpoint, just be aware that that's
what we're in that part of the year.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
And London.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
Don't forget London, yes, good point. Yeah, and another London
game that's a great point. And also don't we're not
to the weather portion of the season yet. We're getting
close where we're not into the wind of Ohio and
the cold of Minneapolis or of Green Bay and the
cold in New England. We're not there yet, but we're
approaching that. So remember we don't bet weather, we bet wind.
So just on that wise, you're watching and we're not
(34:51):
there just yet, but we're getting closer and we have
to start looking at the weather ahead of time, and
we'll do that for you on Tuesday, starting next week,
week seven. He's Pat fitz Morris. I'm Att Parol. Thanks
for watching. Back next week here on the Betting Pros
YouTube channel. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 5 (35:05):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
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What's up, guys? How are you welcome to Week six?
It's time for early bet Survivor picks and things you
guys can fire on right now for the upcoming NFL season.
He's Patsmorts. I'm Matt Perultz.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Pat.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
We've been good giving people some plays early in the
week before the lines are moving. Good week last week
for us? How are you week six? I can't believe
Brardy here?
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, season zipping along. I am doing great, Matt.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Aside from the worst Survivor beat, I think it has
to be in history, right, Cardinals. I think a lot
of people got tripped up by that. But the way
it went down was just I mean three or four
of the most comically. The de Mercado fumble that probably
wasn't even a fumble. I don't know how they reversed
(00:47):
the on field ruling because it didn't look like he
clearly lost it before he hit the goal line.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
But never mind.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Should have been focused, should have been running hard and
not slowing down and dropping the ball randomly. I'm not
sure why people have that inclination to drop the ball
like it's five hundred degrees. The snap off Kyler Murray's
helmets the botched interception and fumble recovery with it being
kicked into the end.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
It was just a comedy.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Of errors, Matt, and it was hard to take if
you had the Cardinals and Survivor.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Which I did. I had them in Survivor, I had
them in a teaser. I laid the seven. I've been
betting for a while. Mike Palm, who's the vice president
of Circus Sports, who is one of the Grand poobas
of the Circus Survivor, which is kind of like the
gold standard of all Survivor contests. They lost about seventy
percent last week of the remaining content contestants that were
(01:43):
available for the one thousand dollars per entury winner take
all Survivor pool, which is around eighteen million dollars that's
up for grabs. He called it the worst Survivor beat
in the history of Survivors. And those are guys who
watch it every day, who are around this all the time,
And I would agree with him that that just not
that the upset happened because the Rams were the number
(02:04):
one pick of the week and they lost on Thursday,
so that started the week off badly. But the Cardinals
being the second most popular pick I was on the
Cardinals is the way, like you mentioned, just the way
that everything went in the second half for a game
that was twenty one to six, and you felt me
felt very good about everything. I felt very good about
the seven points I laid, felt very good about the
(02:26):
teaser that I bet, and felt very good about the
survivor pick going in with the Cardinals. And then it
was like a sand castle getting washed away by the tide.
I just I could not believe what I was witnessing
and what I was watching.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
De Mercatto just he scores, it's twenty eight to six.
Then even the Titans, like when they scored to cut
it to nine points and choosing to kick the extra
point there and maybe go for like wrong decision, and
then he misses the extra point, like the Titans didn't
even want to take that game from the Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
Fat yeah, yeah. And you give cam mood his first victory.
You give Brian Callahan some breathing room because he was
on the way out. I could see that team firing
him on the way home because of how poorly things
have gone. You got the quarterback coming out there talking
about how badly they were. They only had six points,
so it could have been a twenty eight to six
loss in the desert and things are just unraveling and
(03:20):
maybe they just make the change. It really could change
the whole fortunes of that entire franchise in Brian Callahan,
if they do put together any type of win streak,
which I don't think they're going to, by the way,
but if they were to, I could change a lot.
I think it was just a lucky break for them.
But we'll see how it goes for this week. All right,
let's get to the game Thursday. The Eagles are on
(03:41):
the road against the Giants. It's seven or seven and
a half pat This number is forty one from a
total perspective. Some books are at forty one and a half.
It opened at forty one and a half. You like
a play in this game early? You want to get
on the Eagles? Now?
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Yes, I do want to get on the Eagles, and
I know taking a bit big road dog, especially one
that hasn't been sharp. I mean the Eagles have been
I believe, outgained in every game they've played this season,
but they did manage to win four of those games
before finally getting tripped up at home against the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
And like not a dishonorable loss.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
The Broncos are a scrappy team, like their quality team,
so I don't think that was an atrocious loss. But
I just look at the competition here, Matt. The Giants
like they have nothing on offense except Cam's kataboo to
grind out, you know, yardage four and five yards at
a pop. No passing game. Jackson Dart is a one
(04:39):
read quarterback. If he doesn't have his first read open,
he's just going to take off and run and he's
going to get sacked a lot.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
He's going to throw some interceptions.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
He has no credible weaponry at wide receiver now that
Malik Neighbors is out for the season. So I just
don't think the Giants have enough firepower to hang in there.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
With the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
The Eagles offensive struggles, you know, they have not been
the Philadelphia Eagles of twenty twenty four, that's for sure,
but they still have a lot more use than the Giants,
and I think they're gonna win big on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I'm with you, and I think, you know, look, seven
or seven and a half has a lot of points
to lay on the road. I'll give it to you.
But the Giants losing against the Saints, and give credit
to our guy, Andrew Erickson, our coworker, who was on
the table telling everybody that the Saints were going to
beat the Giants, and even I was skeptical. On Sunday morning,
we did our livestream and I told him, I was like,
I like to play and I love the play because
(05:33):
I think it could happen. But you know, we're talking
about a quarterback for the Saints and Spencer Ratler who
was zero for ten in his career starting NFL games.
So he gets his first win ever against anyone, and
it's against a Giants team that came off of a
very surprising win the week prior, and now they're back
at home on a short week where the league is now,
(05:55):
as you mentioned, getting some tape on Jackson Dart and
you saw what the Saints were able to do with that,
getting after the quarterback making him uncertain, and he's not
He's a good runner, but he's not like Josh Allen.
You know, he's not gonna go and burn you whenever
you know, the play collapses. He's not going to burn
you the same way. So I think if you do
spy him and you don't make him, don't allow him
(06:16):
to run, you can take away a big weapon for
that offense. And again, I've been on the Giants all
year long, and the move to Jackson's start going to
the under five and a half wins. I bet it
in the summer. I love the fact they went to
him as quickly as they did. The coaching staffs trying
to deflect and say, hey, I got a rookie. You
can't fire us. I got a rookie quarterback. But this
feels like a twenty eight to three type game to me,
(06:38):
Like I don't think the over hits, I don't think
the Giants score very much, and I think it's a
road grading. Just get in there, run the football, score
three touchdowns, four touchdowns, and get home and cover the
seven points. So I'm with you. I think this is
I think the early play. Take the Eagles, lay the seven.
I don't love seven and a half, but lay the
(06:59):
seven for the Eagles. Coming up here on Thursday night
football coming up. We are back to the International Games,
and it's Denver on the road against the New York Jets,
who are an absolute dumpster fire. They're zero to five.
Denver's coming off of a huge win. Speaking of Philadelphia,
they came back, they were down big in the second
half in the Broncos rally to win that game at Philadelphia.
(07:22):
And now they continued on their road trip, second game
in a row away from home, this one going to
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Number opened up at five
and a half. We're up to seven pat with a
total of forty three and a half. We like the
Broncos to go take apart the Jets and drop them
to h to six.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
I think so you said it dumpster fire with the Jets.
That is just one of the doormat teams of the.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
League right now.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
And the Broncos, I think are probably a top ten
team and maybe a little undervalued. Like I was doing
a little tour of some of the power rankings and
a few people didn't have the Broncos as a top
ten team, which prizes me because that defense is top
three for sure, and I know there's not a lot
of faith in bon Knicks, but they also run the
(08:09):
ball pretty well, and Knicks is not asked to do
a whole lot in that offense, you know, and certainly
there might be games where he's forced to do a
lot more, but the Jets, that's probably not an opponent
that is going to force Bonix to bring his a game.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Yeah, this is not on my list, but this is close.
I mean I brought it up because this is if
we were doing four games, this is a game that
I probably would lay the seven with Denver on this
just because the Jets offense is so inept at the moment.
In their defense, which is mostly Aaron Glenn's calling card,
they don't have a takeaway through five weeks. That's a
(08:44):
history making number there, zero to five with no takeaways
through five games. It's first time in the history of
the league that's ever happened. So this defense. Not a
good week to be going overseas, not a good week
to have a shorter week with the Broncos team that
I think this pins the Airs back and really makes
life difficult for justin fields and companies. So, I mean,
(09:05):
Tyrod Taylor, I play in this game. Give it what
the offense looked like last week for the Jets. So
my first play and we were talking about the Cardinals
and the horrible beat. I think the Colts are going
to take apart the Cardinals. I watched it last week.
I don't think that was a fluke. What they did
of the Raiders Indie at home with Shane Steiken in
the Dome with Daniel Jones. This is working. The defense
(09:29):
is good enough to make life difficult on the Cardinals.
I like it under seven at six and a half.
I think you got it now. Colts minus six and
a half against the Cardinals. How do you feel about
that game?
Speaker 3 (09:40):
If the Cardinals can get up off the mats after
that loss they took at home against the Titans last week,
I will tip my hat to Jonathan Gannon and his
staff and take my loss and move on. But I
don't think that's gonna happen, man. I think the Colts
have proved their credibility. They are a legitimately decent, if
(10:03):
not very good team. And yeah, it's hard to imagine
the Cardinals reacting well to the meltdown they had last week.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
You and I are both on this game, but on
different sides. With San Francisco on the road at Tampa.
You like the total, I like the side. Let's start
with your play. What do you like with the forty
nine ers and the Bucks here? It's a four to
thirty kick. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
So the Buccaneers have been over machines the last few weeks.
Their last three games have produced fifty six, fifty six,
and seventy three points. The Buccaneers have scored twenty five
or more points in eight of their last nine home games.
Oddly enough, the one time they didn't score twenty five
points during that stretch was last year at home against
the forty nine Ers. They lost that game twenty three
(10:46):
to twenty. I don't think we see a repeat of
an underscore there. Both of these teams rank in the
top ten in offensive DVA and at the bottom half
of the league in defensive DVA. I think it's gonna
be the offenses here if we get mac Jones again
and not brock Purty, even if the forty nine Ers
are still missing some of their pass catchers.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
I like the Bucks, and I like the laying of
the three points of this game. It opened at one
and a half, it's now three. I don't want it
over three, so I would take it before it does
go over three. Feels like we're already here on a
Tuesday tape. We're at three. There's money coming in here
on Tampa, and I know the Niners. Look. Mac Jones
(11:27):
has played really, really well and you have to be
impressed with his ability to go on the road to
take on a Rams team and beat them when nobody thought,
including me, nobody thought they could do that. That was
the number one Survivor pick. Like I mentioned earlier in
the Circus Survivor here in Vegas, everybody thought the Rams
would win. Didn't happen. This is back to back road
games for mac Jones, and Tampa understands what is happening.
(11:50):
Tampa is still going to be banged up. We'll see
who comes back, if they get their offensive lineman back,
if they get Bucky Irvin back. It's no Mike Evans, like,
what do they look like? But Baker Mayfield I know
better on Baker Mayfield as a favorite is a little
bit dicey last week against Seattle, Baker as a dog.
Everyone I like sometimes when I'm able to talk myself
(12:10):
out of a bet, because I was close to taking
the Seahawks, Like, I was pretty confident when we taped
the show on Tuesday. I was pretty confident I was
going to take the Seahawks against the Bucks. And I'm
glad that I did not, because Tampa scoring thirty eight
points in that game against that defense for Seattle was
eye opening. That was pretty surprising to see that happen.
I really think though that Tampa. I've got a big
(12:32):
ticket on Tampa to win the division. I think Baker's
on off to an MVP type season. He's going to
be in the MVP conversation, I think for most of
the season with the way he is playing right now.
I'll lay the three points. I just think it's the
old adage of teams on the road in back to
back weeks. I know it's a Thursday to Sunday, so
they have extra time to rest. I just think it's
too difficult to ask Mac Jones to go on the
(12:53):
road with a nine ers given the injuries that they've
got to go to Tampa and it could be warm.
We'll see what the weather looks like too for San Francisco,
But I like Tampa. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
On the roading back to back weeks, Matt, and also
the West Coast team traveling east for an early afternoon starts.
And let me ask you this, Matt, what do you
think the number in this game would have been had
the Rams just taken care of business against the forty
nine ers and Thursday Night Football in Week five and
one by a touchdown like this would probably be five
(13:22):
and a half or something, right.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Yeah, I was gonna say six. Yeah, Yeah, I was
gonna say it's gonna be it would be six points.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
So you might be getting a little bit of value here.
And really the only thing that scares me about this
game is betting Baker Mayfield is a favorite.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
That's really right, and maybe that adage is gone. I mean,
maybe that's an overreaction because of the team he's playing
with at the moment, in the fact that Tampa I mean,
going into the season, even with the injuries. Now, I
still feel this way that like you look at this
roster and you look at the coaching, and you look
at the defense and the way that they're playing. I
mean that this is one of the better teams in
the NFC, and they have a chance to remind people
(13:57):
because all eyes are going to be on this game
because it's the Niners and it's Mac Jones and he's
getting all the love and everybody thinks that Mac is
going to take Rock Purty's job, and all these narratives
that have nothing to do with the Bucks, everything to
do with the forty nine ers, And so let's see
how they deal with prosperity. Mac Jones with New England
did not do well with prosperity. When things got good
and the spotlight got bright, mac Jones wilted. So let's
(14:21):
see he's saying all the right things. This is brock Perty,
It's job. I'm just trying to get some wins for Brock.
When Brock comes back. They gave brock Purty one hundred
and eighty one million dollars. So like, if Mac keeps
on playing well, if he goes on the road and
beats the Buccaneers, I mean, this could be more and
more of a difficult choice for that Niner franchise as
to what they do at the quarterback position. But for
(14:42):
this game, I'll take the Buccaneers here. I'll lay the
three points with Tampa. Let's talk Bears and Commanders, and man,
this is going to be a really interesting game. Two
Monday night games we've got again, which I still think
we get rid of Thursday and do this with two
Monday night games Buffalo Atlanta the first, Chicago and Washington
being the second. Pat What do you like about your
(15:03):
Bears against Washington.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
Yeah, so not my Bears.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
I need to clarify that for my Packer fan friends
here before they think I've turned trader on them. But yeah,
so Bears plus four and a half. And I don't
think this is going to jump out as at a
lot of people as a wager they want to make.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
But I like the spot here for the Bears, Matt.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
First of all, Commanders threw a great punch at the
Chargers last week on the road. Can they play two
games that perfectly in a row, Like I just I
like the fact that they're kind of fat and happy
after that convincing win. And now they get a Bears
(15:44):
team coming off a bye. You know, Ben Johnson is
going to have a lot of things cooked up now
that he's had two weeks to prepare for this game.
We're going to see some probably some trickery, some you know,
but like I would expect his early game script to
be pretty a fact against a quality defense. Admittedly, also
(16:04):
for the Bears, Matt, they have a chance to exercise
some demons against the Commanders because they lost that game
with the Hail Mary, the infamous Hail Mary where Tyreek
Stevenson was taunting Commanders fans and then runs back to
make the plane inadvertly tips the ball backwards into the
(16:24):
end zone for a Hail Mary completion to lose the game.
So I think exercising the demons would be pretty important
to this Bears team. I think a lot of guys
in that locker room are probably thinking about how they
lost that game and how nice it would be to
go and beat the Commanders. And the offense has been
clicking pretty well. I mean, they don't have much of
a running game, but everything with the passing game has
(16:46):
looked pretty good lately, and it seems like Caleb Williams
is starting to mesh.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
With what Ben Johnson wants to do.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Big spot for the Bears. I mean, this is big spot,
the Lake game, this is Monday Night. This is a
chants to kind of announce yourself. As you know, Jaden
Daniels was the IT quarterback, young stud quarterback last year.
Caleb goes in there and beats Washington. It's a pretty
big moment for this Bears team in my mind, to
(17:14):
go on the road against the Commanders. I don't have
a play on it, but I'm very interested to see
This is a good spot to watch and learn what
the Bears will look like for the rest of the year,
because if Ben Johnson can do this with Caleb okay,
now you can start some conversations about are they capable
of making the postseason? Are they a wild card team?
Speaker 3 (17:34):
Like?
Speaker 1 (17:34):
Where will the Bears year go from here? If they
go there and lay an egg and get blown off,
blown off the field by the Commanders, things might go
a different direction. So I like the spot. I like
your play. Could be a three point win for the Commanders.
Take the four and a half points with the dog
on the road. I have a hard time seeing the
Bears win the game, but I can see it being
a closer game than the books are giving it to
(17:55):
with a four and a half point number for mine
and I watched it last night. I like the Jaguars.
I think what Liam Cohen's doing here at home again
against Seattle one o'clock start. It's an early kick for
the body clock for Seattle after giving up thirty eight
points at home to the Bucks. This might be just
(18:16):
what the doctor ordered here opened at pick. Now we're
at one and a half or one hard rock bets
at one for the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think you can
jump in and lay the one point here. It's essentially
a money line play on the Jaguars to beat Seattle.
It's just a travel spot for me. I think this
is a tough matchup for the Seahawks to go across
the country, to go into an environment where the Jaguar
(18:37):
fans you saw it last night, they're believing pat they
think they got a team.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Yeah, maybe they do.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
Mat Like, I have a lot of faith in Liam Cohen,
and I know they asked him in the offseason. I
think I was reading an interview with him where they
asked if when he felt like his offense fully kicked
in in Tampa and people understood it, and he said
it took about a month, and so we're at about
a month. So maybe we start to see that offense
(19:06):
comeing to bloom here.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
And the defense has been pretty good too.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Like Josh Heinz Allen and Devin Lloyd, these guys have
been playing out of their minds and they are getting takeaways.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Now.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
I don't know if we can count.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
On the takeaways to continue the way they have fourteen
through five games. That's a lot of takeaways, but I
guess the only hang up I have. Plus, you know
you mentioned the West Coast team traveling east for the
early start, so there is a lot to like with
the Jaguars here. The only hang up I have is
that I think Seattle is undervalued right now, and I
do think they're a really good team. And we saw
(19:38):
the defense slip up a little bit against the Buccaneers
in a game that just wound up being a game
of horse with increasingly difficult shots and just I think
they said in that game mat there were nine touchdowns
and only ten incompletions. Wow, Buccaneers Seahawks. Yeah, crazy back
and forth game. I think the Seattle defense is better
than that, and this offense is really efficient. Sam Donald
(20:02):
has been operating pretty effectively within a run heavy scheme.
The running game hasn't always been great, but it is
making things easier on Sam Donald.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
And it's helped his production.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
So this is probably a stay away from me, but
I get the angle. I understand why you like this game,
and like in the pools, where I'm forced to make
a pick, I'm probably going to take the Jaguars here.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
It's it's a huge way of and I know it's
a shorter week because they played last night on Monday
Night Football against the Chiefs. But and I'm with you
on the on the the interception return for a touchdown
for ninety nine yards and all these turnovers they have
had through the first five weeks is remarkable, and I'm
with you it's not sustainable, But I think there's confidence
growing in that locker room at the moment. And for Seattle.
(20:51):
I like Seattle, okay, I do. I like Mike McDonald.
I like their defense, Sam Darnold on the road Eastern
time zone, like, let's see what he does going there.
And if they go and shut down that Jaguars team
and they get a W, I'll tip my cap and say,
great job, guys, nice bounce back spot. But that loss
to the Bucks worries me about where the Seattle Seahawks
are at the moment. And I mean, I don't want
(21:14):
Seattle in shootouts, Like I don't like the Seahawks offense
to stay in a shootout type situation. That's not how
they're built. They want to run the ball and play
defense and play lower scoring games. And giving up thirty
eight points to the Bucks was okay, a bit eye
opening to me. On that, so I'll take the Jags
lay in just one point, essentially a money line play. Guys,
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Let's talk Survivor and boy oh boy, was a carnage
week last week. So for all those of you who
are still alive in Survivor, tip of the cap, I'm out.
I'm dead. I got tossed by the Cardinals. What do
you like this week? Pat for Survivor picks well.
Speaker 3 (22:15):
With my one Survivor team where I decided to go
with the Colts last week instead of the Cardinals. I'm
gonna go with the Packers. I think they're chalk this
week coming off a bio, though, I should warn that
Matt Lafleur's Packer teams are only three and three off
by weeks.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
They haven't been all that great.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
Yeah, in the first two years he was in Green Bay,
they got their doors blown off in their first game back.
So I guess three and one in their last four
games off by weeks under Lafleur, but not always convincing wins. Still,
you have to think the way the Packers went into
their by the loss to the Browns, the disappointing tie
against the Cowboys, They're probably going to be pretty focused
(22:55):
and fired up coming out at home against this depleted
Bengals team. Bengals can still generate a little bit of
offense with Jamar Chase, but man, their defense can't stop anyone.
Jake Browning is turning the ball over. It's just hard
to see the Packers tripping up here as fourteen and
a half point favorites. And then beyond that, I mean
(23:17):
we talked about the Colton Cardinals, Matt. I mean, I
guess Colts would be second choice for the teams who
have them available, but otherwise, looking at a lot of
road road favorites, big road favorites, like I don't know
how you feel about taking a team in the London
game as a survivor pick, or how about Eagles Giants.
(23:37):
I mean that kind of violates two of your things,
a road team and a division divisional game. Rams At
Do you dare take the rams at the Ravens? I no, Yeah,
so no Raiders.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Unless Lamar is out. If Lamar is out, then maybe,
but until Lamar, until we know about Lamar jackson status.
They have a bye week next week, so probably not
his back, right, Yeah, Lamar sits gets the bye and
then comes back after the bye, but they could very
well be one in five get to the bye week.
So that's the worry that do you really want to?
(24:12):
Don't chance it? Because the offense under Cooper Rush looked
horrific last week for the Ravens, so that's a bit concerning.
I mean, for me, my survivor pick is the Colts.
I think you go turn right around and fade the Cardinals.
And I mean people a lot of people who listen
to Daily Juice called the Cardinals now the Jets of
the West, and I think it's a fair point because
they just can't get out of their own way. And
(24:33):
I think the reaction of the coaching staff following some
of those decisions, following some of those plays kind of
tells you where that team is at the moment. I
don't think they're in a good space mentally, and they're
walking into an environment that I think we do have
to start paying attention to what's going on in Indianapolis
and what Daniel Jones is doing on the road against
(24:53):
the Rams. He was tremendous turning around. Look, the Raiders
are not a good football team, but when you're a
good football team, you're supposed to do that to a
bad football team. They come into your building, you take
them apart systematically, and you make the game into a laugher.
They did that last week. I think it's a good
shot they do it again to Kyler Murray and company here.
(25:15):
I think they've got the pass rush to keep him
in the pocket and make him throw the football. And
I like the Colts defense is a bit underrated, but
the offense is really humming right now. I mean, the
offense is really really doing a good job. So I
think if you have the Colts available, I think that's
a survivor pick to go ahead and jump on the
colts here for this week, guys. Hard Rock Bet is
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Speaker 1 (26:34):
All right, let's talk about a play that you would
lock in right now, Pat, What would you like to
do from a number of perspective that might move as
we get later into the week.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
I want to get the Dolphins as home dogs, catching
four and a half from the Chargers before the public
realizes how beaten up the Chargers are and that maybe
they're not a great investment as a road favorite. We
saw the Chargers really struggle to protect Justin Herbert last
week against the Giants without Joe Alt. They already lost
(27:03):
for Shaun Slater in training camp. Now Joe Alt's gone,
so both of the bookends stud tackles the Chargers had gone.
I think Mkay Beckton got hurt last week too, one
of their starting guards, some sort of hand injury, so
he's going to be out and obviously the loss of
Amarian Hampton is pretty big, so now they can't really
lean on that running game. They've got, you know, the
(27:24):
plotting Hassan Haskins and Kamani Videll at running back. So
don't know how well they'll be able to run, don't
know how well they'll be able to protect Herbert's and
the defense is okay, but I don't know if it
is a lights out defense. I don't think it's the
caliber of Saint Denver's defense and matt Since that thirty
three to eight week one demolition at the hands of
(27:47):
the Colts, the Dolphins have played every game close since then.
Their worst loss over that stretch was that ten point
loss at Buffalo on Thursday night, when we knew that
the Dolphins were right in that game, and had they
not gotten an unfortunate roughing the punter call that gave
the Bills a first down when they were kicking the
(28:08):
ball away in their own territory, things could have been
really tight for the Bills in that one. Other than that,
like Miami's been competitive, this team is not quit on
Mike McDaniel, so I think they can hang with the
Chargers and maybe even pull off the upset this week.
I might consider a money line back here too.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
I like it. I think you know, so much in
the NFL is about spot and who's available. And the
Chargers got off to a really hot start, and we
were talking about them in the West and running away
with the division. And look, they still very well might
win the division, but Denver. If Denver gets the win
over in England, they are in the driver's seat for
the division. After the Chiefs loss to the Jaguars, which
(28:48):
was somewhat surprising, you know, I'm with you. I think
that the Dolphins are playing even without Tyreek and maybe
you know what, I hate to say this. I'm not
saying that you never want anyone injured, but sometimes when
you take away player and you remove certain players from
locker rooms, the teams tend to, you know, pick up
the pace and they get on the same page and
they start to lock in because they know they don't
(29:10):
have one of these players with these elite playmakers, and
also maybe a personality that didn't fit all that well
in that locker room. So I don't love Tua, but
I think I think this is a good spot for
the Dolphins for me, and this is one of those holds,
you'll hold your nose. And I get it when I
say people are gonna go, oh no, you just trashed
Vegas and now you're going to back Vegas. I am.
(29:32):
I don't trust Brian Callahan to keep the Titans off
the strip. I don't We've had the Vegas flu in
the past. I don't trust the Titans to stay away
from the problems here in this city. There is distractions
on distractions, there is you know, this is a young
football team making their first trip out here. I don't
remember the last time the Titans played here in Las Vegas.
(29:55):
And I don't trust the Callahans at all to keep
their guys focused on a football game coming up on Sunday.
And this Raiders team is backs against the wall and
everyone's job is currently I think if they lose to
the Titans at home, we could see some big changes
we could see. I don't think Chip Kelly gets fired,
but I think some coaches might be getting let go
(30:16):
because I don't know if Pete Carroll's going to stick
around long term if this season completely goes south. Remember
he brought in Geno Smith, a veteran quarterback, to win.
Right now, they drafted a running back with a sixth
pick overall when they had multiple problems and they could
have traded down and drafted a whole litany of guys,
they chose to use it on a running back who
(30:38):
is their best offensive player. Okay, I'm not saying that
Ashton Genti has not had a great start to his
NFL career, because he has. But they have bigger problems
than a running back at number six overall, and they
made that decision. So from a GM standpoint, down to
a coach standpoint, down to a distraction standpoint, they're fat
and happy they won. On the road, it's back to
(30:59):
back road trips out West. I don't know if the
Titans are staying out West or not, but I don't
care if they are, it doesn't matter. I want four
and a half. This number is climbing. I would take
Vegas Lane four and a half right now against the Titan.
Speaker 2 (31:10):
You think it's going to go up? Where do you
think it finishes?
Speaker 1 (31:13):
Six? Well, most likely, I think it probably goes up
a good a point in a half rut five at
most books, at some books right now, one books at
five and a half. I just think people are going
to fade back to back road trips for the Titans,
given their youth and the fact that they should have
lost last week to the Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Yeah, I do expect the Raiders to win this game,
but I I just wish I could be a fly
on the wall of the Raiders locker room for a
day to know what the vibe is with this team.
Is Pete Carroll losing the locker room yet or is
he you know, likea in Pete Carroll has been a
big culture guy throughout his coaching tenure in Seattle. Like
(31:51):
we saw, the culture was always good in Seattle, and
I think Pete Carroll's a player's coach, so I do
trust him more than I trust Brian Callahan for sure.
And I think the Raiders probably probably do have the
better roster. You know, they certainly should have the more
competent quarterback, although Gino Smith has not played well. But
it's a scary investment to make Matt. But I do expect,
(32:15):
you know, especially with the game being in Las Vegas,
maybe the money to come in on the Raiders this
the week goes on.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
So getting it now if you like the Raiders makes sense.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
It's a spot. I know they got killed by the
Colts last week. I know things are a dumpster fire
here with the Raiders. It's just if you can't beat
up on the Titans, who are you beating? Like? Who
are you beating the rest of the year If you
can't win this game at home. Given what just happened
on the road to Indianapolis, not not great at all.
I'm very excited to see how this is all going
(32:45):
to play out. Guys want to track all your wages
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(33:05):
slash Trekking, or go to the Betting Pros app pat
Final thoughts before we head off into Week six.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting slate, Matt. I mean,
maybe not my favorite slate of the season so far,
but an interesting one for sure. I just wish that
you were doing the Sunday live stream with Ericson instead
of Terrell this week because I want to see Ericson
kluck his tongue at you for betting Baker Mayfield as
a favorite.
Speaker 1 (33:31):
I get it, I do. I understand his point. I mean,
but I think at some point you just can't play
that narrative all the way. Because the Buccaneers are at home,
and again it's now three. I don't want it over three,
but I think this is a Tampa team. Even though
and Baker has one as a favorite. It's not like
he never wins his favorites. It never covers as a favorite.
He's just a much better bet when he's a dog.
(33:52):
I think the number is seventeen and three now against
the number for Baker Mayfield as a dog in the
NFL last twenty games, so he's been high profitable as
an underdog. But I think of a favorite, he can
take care of business here at home against a banged
up San Francisco team. For me, reminder that Minnesota and Houston,
those are the two teams are on a buy and
(34:12):
that there are two games on Monday Night Football, so
we have Thursday night, Sunday Night, Monday Night with two
games in Minnesota and Houston are on buys. So just
for your fantasy teams and whatever you need to set
from roster standpoint, DFS standpoint, just be aware that that's
what we're in that part of the year.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
And London.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
Don't forget London, yes, good point. Yeah, and another London
game that's a great point. And also don't we're not
to the weather portion of the season yet. We're getting
close where we're not into the wind of Ohio and
the cold of Minneapolis or of Green Bay and the
cold in New England. We're not there yet, but we're
approaching that. So remember we don't bet weather, we bet wind.
So just on that wise, you're watching and we're not
(34:51):
there just yet, but we're getting closer and we have
to start looking at the weather ahead of time, and
we'll do that for you on Tuesday, starting next week,
week seven. He's Pat fitz Morris. I'm Att Parol. Thanks
for watching. Back next week here on the Betting Pros
YouTube channel. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 5 (35:05):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
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