Join Joe Pisapia and Scott Bogman as they highlight their favorite bets to make for Monday Night Football in Week 6!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Nick Chubb Signed Helmet Giveaway Promo - 0:01:35
MNF Game 1 - Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons - 7:15pm ET - 0:02:14
MNF Game 2 - Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders - 8:15pm ET - 0:05:23
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 63.5 Rushing Yards - 0:07:26
Bijan Robinson Over 73.5 Rushing yards - 0:08:25
Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards - 0:09:31
D’Andre Swift Over 43.5 Rushing Yards - 0:10:22
DJ Moore Over 39.5 Rec Yards - 0:12:23
Prop Bet Cheat Sheet Promo - 0:13:45
Hard Rock Bet - 0:14:09
SG-JoeyP: Bijan Robinson Over 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yds, Bijan Robinson Any Time Touchdown Scorer, Deebo Samuel Over 60.5 Receiving Yds - 0:15:46
SGP Tool - 0:17:03
Joe's TD Call: Zach Ertz +210 - 0:17:20
Bogman's TD Call: Khalil Shakir +200 - 0:17:32
Outro - 0:19:30
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey v Joe, Pi's a P
and this is BP NFL. We've gotten not one, but
two Monday night football games to talk about today, and
to help me do it, the proud father of Camp
Scattaboo himself, Scott Bogman, is here. What's it like to
watch your son run all over the Eagles for a
million touchdowns on Thursday night football box? You know?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
I mean, my first born Alejandro Kirk has been on
a great he's been on a great streak in the
playoffs for the Blue Jays, and my other son, Cam
Skataboo is handing out CTE to all the Phillies Philly
defensive players. So uh yeah, it's been a great time
being the big man on Camp Scataboo for the entire offseason.
(00:45):
You were on the train too, man.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Right behind your man. Ye look you were.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
You are early in that one.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
You're the conductor. I was, I was right there, man.
I told you. It was it was the really it
was the game against Texas where it just put out
yes and I'm very careful. I never text Bogman during
Texas games, let alone college football playoff. So I had
to wait because I knew if I had anything to say,
I had to wait till that game was over. And
then it went to overtime as a whole deal. But
we had a long conversation back and forth about him
after that, and it was just it's incredible to watch man,
(01:12):
And it's the vibes of the environment, it's for sure.
And we've got vibes today for these games too, and
we're going to talk about these games. We got Buffalo, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington.
So make sure you are downloading the Betting Pros app,
make sure you are subscribing to our YouTube channel here.
Stay with us all season long for NFL because we
are here to help you cash and look, we've got
(01:33):
good times going on here. Plus we've also got to giveaway.
We've got the Nick Chubb helmet giveaway right now, sign
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(01:54):
Betting Pros on x and on TikTok It's singular No
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the winner of the new Big prize here the Nick
Chubb helmet. All right, Bogs, let's start with game number
(02:15):
one here and by the way, at the record show,
Scot bogwin three and two for Thursday Night Football. Very good,
very good. Unfortunately my boy let me down at the
tight end position there. But that's a yeah, come on,
you know what, I should have known better too that
Like okay, it's like that was really fun. Now it's gonna,
you know, just all be scataboo. I should I should
have known at home it's just gonna be scataboo.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
But yeah, I mean, because everybody on their card had
the Giants dominating this game and running away with it.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
But the one thing we talked about I was like,
I am not comfortable with this eagle seven at all.
Like I am not We talked about that. Go back
and watch check the receipts. I was on the Giants
side of that football game, but I was not comfortable
at all with the Philly points. I thought Philly might
eke it out, but you know, and they might have
had that turnover in the red zone not happened towards
in the fourth quarter. There maybe things change a little
(03:01):
bit there the dynamic. You start to feel a little like,
oh no, like where are we going? But it's in
the past now. All we can do is look ahead
to the future. And the future gives us the four
to one Buffalo Bills against the Atlanta Falcons coming off
of bye Atlanta is a five point underdog at home
minus four for the Buffalo Bills forty nine and a
half the over fifty is the under. You're getting minus
two five on the money line for the Bills and
(03:21):
plus one ninety eight. So the Bills looking their wounds
after a big home loss here, huge one to the
Indivision New York excuse me, the New England Patriots. So
for this one, I'm just gonna stick with the over
in this. I don't love the Buffalo Bills defense. I've
made no qualms about that. I like Atlanta rested off
a bye and starting to play a little better in
that last game leading up to the by So hopefully
(03:42):
we get a rested Byjon Robinson running a muckle over
that Buffalo defense, and if he does, that forces Josh
Allen to play up a little bit. So give me
over forty nine and a half. That's where I am.
Where are you at for this game? Pawks Man?
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I'm him and and hawing in this game because I
think at minus three want on Buffalo, but at plus
five I want Atlanta. So I do think it's going
to be a nice tight one. Atlanta being at home
and coming off of bye week, it's hard to pick
against them. I'll probably just take points in both these games, honestly,
but the first one up I was on Buffalo. I
(04:15):
think if I can get five, if this sixpands anymore
to five and a half, six, I'm definitely taking Atlanta,
and I think it might. Buffalo's obviously very popular team
right now, but you know, Atlanta being at home and
coming off of bye two weeks to prep for this team.
They should have a better effort than a lot of teams,
and most NFL games are pretty close.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Bucks think about this. Let's say that they had pulled
the rabbit out of their hat and they beat the Patriots, Right,
what do you think this number would be?
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Probably seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
That's what I think too. So I think you're getting
value here with Buffalo. So I think people are overestimating
a little bit in this line what happened last week
to the Buffalo Bills. So I think there's value with Buffalo.
I just don't want to bet it because.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Yeah, I don't want to take Atlanta either, because we
saw them lose thirty to zip to Carolina. Right. This
is a wishy, washy team right now. Michael Penix is
a young starter. He's gonna have hits and misses. I
do think that this. I do like your overplay too,
because I think that this Buffalo defense can be taken
advantage of.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Right now. Yeah, if you put the Bills, by the
way minus four and a half with the over forty
nine and a half, you get plus two forty five.
That's an interesting way to just kind of if you're
just gonna go all in on this game. That's the
way to do it.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Now.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Game number two, we have the Chicago Bears two and
two off thereby against the Washington Commanders, who got Jaydon
Daniels and got back on the win column last week.
The Commanders are four and a half point favorites at home,
which makes sense. You're getting plus four and a half
on the Bears. That's the best consensus line at betting
pros forty nine for the over, fifty and a half
for the under, plus two hundred on the money line
for the Chicago Bears, minus two fifteen on the money
(05:44):
line for the Commanders. You know, I'm trying my bet
No McLaurin for this game. Again, I'm trying my best.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
People question now, didn't practice on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Well, I think the debo questionable thing is like, look,
we just need to put debo and bubble rap because
we can't afford to lose anybody else. I'm sure he's
gonna play. I'm not too concerned about that. But again,
I don't love this one. I'm more apt to go
Buffalo in the over than I am to touch this
game at all. But if I had to lean on
this one, my lean right now would be towards Washington
with the four and a half, just because I feel
(06:16):
like the Bears make mistakes and they just they're their
own worst enemy at times. And with the fact that
the Washingt Commanders run the football so effectively, they're leading
the league and rushing this year, people won't realize that
as a team, and that was with Daniel's missing some games.
I think they can control this game a little bit
more and take advantage of some of those mistakes. So
that's my thought. But again, don't love this. I definitely
(06:36):
like the other one more for the over. That's my
favorite of these two games. But Bogs, where do you
stand with this one?
Speaker 2 (06:41):
I feel like this is a field goal game, so
if you're gonna give me more than three, I'm gonna
take points. So I'm gonna take the plus four and
a half With Chicago, they are coming off of buy
as well, a couple weeks to prepare for this game.
But I kind of like an overplay in this one
as well. I might be a little overhappy here, but
you know, we have a lot of injuries in the
Chicago secondary. Obviously they are injuries for Washington's offense as well,
(07:06):
but I think Jayden Daniels, like you said, is going
to be able to have a big game. I like
the fact that we get Ben Johnson for two weeks
to draw plays for this game as well, So I
like a nice back and forth shootout here, So give
me the over in this one. I also take Chicago
plus the points.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
All right, let's start with the props here, and it's
always easier when we get two games to choose from.
Let's start with Bill mister Krosky merrit himself, Tom Brady's
new favorite running back. Sixty three and a half is
the number for the rushing yards. And I was toying
around with this one. The projections have this very close Bogs,
but you're taking an over. So where's the confidence coming here?
Because obviously the projections are very spot on here with
(07:43):
this line. So what is it about that Bears defense?
You think there's a hole in where we can exploit
it the other way?
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Well, I think there's two things. Number One, Grady Jarrett
looks like he's not going to go in this game.
But also the Bears run defense is thirty first in
yards allowed per game, they're twenty eighth and run defense
great on PFF also, Chrisriguez probably not going to play
in this game. And you know, in two of the
three games that Bill has played with Jade Daniels, he's
had much better rushing totals than he had with Mariota.
(08:10):
So I think that you know, Jayden being here plus
being down a couple of weapons, plus a bad Bears
run defense, that's that's three strikes here out. Let's go
get this over.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
Okay, So the over for JCM here in this one.
B Jon Robinson. I've got a Bjon Bett coming later
in the show that I'm very enamored of, But this
rushing prop is seventy three and a half for him,
and you're taking the over. I know it was a
slow first game out of the game for him, but
after that we've been pretty close to this number. So
let's talk about the game log of b Jhon Robinson
and arrested B Jon Robinson against the Bills defense that
(08:44):
frankly is trouble stopping a lot of people.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
And this is the last week. I feel like you're
really going to be able to take advantage of the
front seven for the Bills, Right, Michael Hoyt, Larry Ogunjobi,
two guys that they signed had that six week suspension,
so this is it. This is the last time, this
last game they're going to miss. So you're still down
those two guys at Oliver's banged up. TJ. Sanders looks
to be out. They are definitely less than one hundred
(09:07):
percent if they play in this game. And what do
you do when you are across from Josh Allen? You
run the ball, you slow the pace, you keep the
ball away from Josh Allen. So I think be Sean
is going to have tons of carries in this game.
Obviously he's explosive as well. So if he's getting a
bunch of carries, plus it's still a banged up and
suspended front seven for the Bills here, I think be
(09:29):
Sean's gonna eat all right.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Speaking of Josh Allen, he's gonna have to pull this
team up by the haunches as he always does. The
number is two to twenty eight and a half here
on the passing yards. We want to go over or
under that for Josh.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
I mean I want to go over this. I feel
like this game is going to be a little shootout y, right.
I mean I think that the Buffalo defense last week
was smoked by New England and that was in twenty five,
twenty nine a possession for New England. So this might
need to play a little bit more. Point for point,
Atlanta pass defense has been strong, but after Mayfield, they
faced JJ mccarthen his second start, Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota.
(10:05):
That's why they have good statistical Uh you know, they
look good in the stats and they grade well. Uh,
it's you got to kind of dig a little deeper
and see that strength to schedule. Right, So I think
that Josh Allen will be able to pass all over
this team, and I think this number is set too low.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Yeah, let's get to the next one here on the
list here, which is actually DeAndre Swift. Now it's interesting
because coming out of this buy, I was really looking
forward to seeing what kalle man on Guy might be
able to do in this backfields, a little bit of
a shift there, especially since Swift has not played well.
That touchdown he had kind of masked some of the
bad play in the last game we saw. But unfortunately
Man Guy picked up an injury this week, so some
(10:43):
questionable thoughts whether or not he's going to play again.
We've got more time, but we're recording this Friday morning,
So again we don't know exactly what's going to happen here,
how this backfield does shake out, But there could be
some value here with Swift if indeed Manong Guy is
out to jump on early bogs, So let's talk about it.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
I mean, the real thing here is is that, uh, look,
just Manog Guy is probably not gonna play, and this
is a bye He didn't practice on a Thursday after
a bye week. That's a really bad sign. Like if
you're coming off a game and you want to be
rested because you're playing Monday, sometimes you use Thursday as
a veteran rest day instead of Wednesday as a veteran
(11:21):
rest day, right, Joey. But this is not a veteran
and you're off of a bye week. So I don't
think monag Guy is going to play in this game.
So I think DeAndre Swift gets a lot of run
because Roshan has been on this roster and they've given
him nothing. He hasn't touched the football yet, so he
will definitely get touches in this game. But I think
you know, if you're that if you're if he's that
(11:43):
low in your depth chart, kind of like De Mercado
was for the Cardinals before everybody got hurt there. I
don't know how much you're gonna trust this dude. So
I love Roshan. I think he's a great running back,
power back for sure, my boy from Texas, but doesn't
seem like Ben Johnson likes him. So two weeks to
prep for this game, I think we're going see a
lot of design nice plays here. I think Swift can
(12:03):
get this on like ten to twelve touches. I mean,
you know they're still giving up Washington four yards per
carry even though the defense has been strong. So you
give him twelve carries, thirteen carries. He should get this,
and I think he gets that with no Manangai in
this game.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
Yeah, I think it's the volume. It's just the volume
player right now for him here potentially this one. It's smart,
all right. DJ Moore is the next one here, thirty
nine and a half receiving yards. This one again kind
of tricky. It's been like the Roma Doonesday Show. So
can we get to this low number? I mean every
week we look up and it's less and less for
DJ Moore, feels like and still we have to hold
our breath to see if he can get there? Can
he get there for thirty nine and a half?
Speaker 2 (12:40):
I think so? I mean, look, I know that coming
off of buy, maybe Luther Burden sees a little bit
more in this game. I know people are concerned with that,
but projections are way over Every projection I saw was
way over this for DJ Moore this week. And if
it's if we're putting tree Amos on a doonsday right,
because he's played the best. So if he goes to
cover their best wide receiver, it's gonna be Marshaw the
(13:03):
ghost of Marshaw Lattimore covering Dj Moore here. And I
know DJ Moore hasn't had a great year, but he's
still way better than Latimore at this point in his
career because Latimore is eighty eight of one hundred and
twelve great cornerbacks and coverage this season, so giving up
one of his worst completion percentages in his careers. So
I think that Dj Moore is going to be open
(13:23):
in this game. Like we said, we'd like this to
go a little bit more point for point with some
guys being hurt in the secondary for Chicago and Chicago
coming off of bye with two weeks for Johnson to
drop some plays. I think that this is going to
go point for point. I think I think a lot
of wide receivers eat in this game. It's all the
guys with the bears and whoever the hell plays for
(13:43):
the commanders. And remember prop bet chi chi is available
to help you with all the props bettingpros dot com,
slash props. It's the way you find the best value
there on the board, takes the projections, takes the lines,
gives you the best possible house to vet it in.
That's the whole point of the prop bet chi sheet.
So use the tools there. It's fantastic. Love the prop
bet chie sheet. That's what we use.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Here and we're telling you to do the same thing
that we're doing here. Get out there, download the apps.
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All right, let's take a look at the next one. Here,
it's the step and I've gone stone cold. Week one
(15:50):
was great. I'm a week one wonder. That's it. But
I'm gonna try my best to just put the head down,
keep working. That's all I gotta do. About the past
here talking about your past, talking about the future.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Jon hit you hit two though you're still up units
for the.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
I am, I am, but it doesn't matter. I want
to hit every week. I want to hit one every week.
I know that's ridiculous, but it's just it's the perfections
in me box. I just want to hit it. I
want to be I want to be there for the people.
So it's gonna be s g joep with a lowercase
P pretty soon if we don't get out of this
tail span. So let's take Bjon Robinson to get in
the end zone. If he doesn't go against the Bills,
(16:27):
I'll just be shocked. Then I want to give myself
somewhere outs here one hundred and twelve and a half
rushing plus receiving, So this gives me options here. So
he has a big day rushing to football, great, If
he has a big day receiving the football, great, he
has a big day period all over the place. Great.
I've got a lot of options there, plus the touchdown.
Then I'm gonna add Deebo Samuel over sixteen and a
half receiving cards at minus one fourteen. I do think
(16:48):
he will play. If he does not play, I would
just pin this down to the two to the b
Jon Robinson two stats here and you're not getting plus
three forty nine then, But when you add in debo.
I think you can make that work here for plus
three forty nine and I do think he will play.
So that is the SGP of the week here for
Monday Night Football and Gorse. We got the SGP tool
still going on. Same game parlay tool over on Betting
(17:10):
Pros right now helps you correlate some of the bets
you want to make and how to spin them in
one game into an SGP. So it's a really fun
tool there on Betting Pros which brings us to our
touchdown calls. And I'm going to go look for zach
Ertz to bounce back here. Jane Daniels is back under center.
Eartz has been quiet. I think we get back to
business here with zach Ertz and he gets a tuddy
And I like the number two plus two ten bogs
(17:32):
where you're going for your touchdown call this week.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
I feel like the touchdown calls are juiced to hell
this week, like they are. They want to.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Action on Monday's Nobody don't want anybody to have action
on Monday.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Debo is bad. I just went to double up close
you care got nine targets last week starting to lead
the Bills. Let's just go with him to find the
end zone. Double up our money here. If we're thinking
this is going to be a nice shootout game, both
these games hopefully are nice shootout games, then I think
we can get there. So let's go with Shakir for
a touchdown to double up some money here.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
You know last year of the Bills didn't think they
had enough a wide receiver and they traded for Marii Cooper,
which did not work right right at all? Do you
think they try that again this year where they go,
you know, we still don't have enough a wide receiver,
and if so, who do you think that would be?
Set of curios?
Speaker 2 (18:17):
I don't think they're gonna do it right because I
think we see Kincaid, who's the guy I want to
bet on a lot in this game in particular, but
he's banged up and may not play. I think Kinkaid
is developing. I think they're getting way more from Coleman
than they had last year as well, So I don't
think they are going to make the move. If they
do make them move, I think they trade for somebody big.
I don't think it's like a limp move, like a
(18:39):
Marii Cooper. I think he go after something much bigger,
trade a first or second round pick and lose your
window here.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
If you're the Bills, you know Josh Allen's at his prime.
You know you're still in a division that's relatively soft.
Although my patriot's starting to knock on the door a
little bit getting better there.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
So Miami's better than people give him credit for. And
the Jets are worse than people give him credit for.
It seems like, uh, you know, no one was giving
them much credit.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
Will the Jets be allowed back in the country if
they go oh and six?
Speaker 2 (19:06):
That's a question.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Let me know the answer to that question down in
the comments below. Will the Jets be allowed back in
New York in the airport if they lose another game
here and go to O and six? It's a yes
or no, But still we love to hear from you
and again, go win the new Nick Chubb giveaway we
got going on right now from Pristine Auction dot com,
and of course, don't forget to download the betting pros
app bets Smarter or Not Harder and make all your
(19:28):
bets at hard Rock Bet. That'll do it for us.
But the story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman,
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy
your Monday night football games plural good times good.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
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(20:04):
s
Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey v Joe, Pi's a P
and this is BP NFL. We've gotten not one, but
two Monday night football games to talk about today, and
to help me do it, the proud father of Camp
Scattaboo himself, Scott Bogman, is here. What's it like to
watch your son run all over the Eagles for a
million touchdowns on Thursday night football box? You know?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
I mean, my first born Alejandro Kirk has been on
a great he's been on a great streak in the
playoffs for the Blue Jays, and my other son, Cam
Skataboo is handing out CTE to all the Phillies Philly
defensive players. So uh yeah, it's been a great time
being the big man on Camp Scataboo for the entire offseason.
(00:45):
You were on the train too, man.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Right behind your man. Ye look you were.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
You are early in that one.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
You're the conductor. I was, I was right there, man.
I told you. It was it was the really it
was the game against Texas where it just put out
yes and I'm very careful. I never text Bogman during
Texas games, let alone college football playoff. So I had
to wait because I knew if I had anything to say,
I had to wait till that game was over. And
then it went to overtime as a whole deal. But
we had a long conversation back and forth about him
after that, and it was just it's incredible to watch man,
(01:12):
And it's the vibes of the environment, it's for sure.
And we've got vibes today for these games too, and
we're going to talk about these games. We got Buffalo, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington.
So make sure you are downloading the Betting Pros app,
make sure you are subscribing to our YouTube channel here.
Stay with us all season long for NFL because we
are here to help you cash and look, we've got
(01:33):
good times going on here. Plus we've also got to giveaway.
We've got the Nick Chubb helmet giveaway right now, sign
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Betting Pros on x and on TikTok It's singular No
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Chubb helmet. All right, Bogs, let's start with game number
(02:15):
one here and by the way, at the record show,
Scot bogwin three and two for Thursday Night Football. Very good,
very good. Unfortunately my boy let me down at the
tight end position there. But that's a yeah, come on,
you know what, I should have known better too that
Like okay, it's like that was really fun. Now it's gonna,
you know, just all be scataboo. I should I should
have known at home it's just gonna be scataboo.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
But yeah, I mean, because everybody on their card had
the Giants dominating this game and running away with it.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
But the one thing we talked about I was like,
I am not comfortable with this eagle seven at all.
Like I am not We talked about that. Go back
and watch check the receipts. I was on the Giants
side of that football game, but I was not comfortable
at all with the Philly points. I thought Philly might
eke it out, but you know, and they might have
had that turnover in the red zone not happened towards
in the fourth quarter. There maybe things change a little
(03:01):
bit there the dynamic. You start to feel a little like,
oh no, like where are we going? But it's in
the past now. All we can do is look ahead
to the future. And the future gives us the four
to one Buffalo Bills against the Atlanta Falcons coming off
of bye Atlanta is a five point underdog at home
minus four for the Buffalo Bills forty nine and a
half the over fifty is the under. You're getting minus
two five on the money line for the Bills and
(03:21):
plus one ninety eight. So the Bills looking their wounds
after a big home loss here, huge one to the
Indivision New York excuse me, the New England Patriots. So
for this one, I'm just gonna stick with the over
in this. I don't love the Buffalo Bills defense. I've
made no qualms about that. I like Atlanta rested off
a bye and starting to play a little better in
that last game leading up to the by So hopefully
(03:42):
we get a rested Byjon Robinson running a muckle over
that Buffalo defense, and if he does, that forces Josh
Allen to play up a little bit. So give me
over forty nine and a half. That's where I am.
Where are you at for this game? Pawks Man?
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I'm him and and hawing in this game because I
think at minus three want on Buffalo, but at plus
five I want Atlanta. So I do think it's going
to be a nice tight one. Atlanta being at home
and coming off of bye week, it's hard to pick
against them. I'll probably just take points in both these games, honestly,
but the first one up I was on Buffalo. I
(04:15):
think if I can get five, if this sixpands anymore
to five and a half, six, I'm definitely taking Atlanta,
and I think it might. Buffalo's obviously very popular team
right now, but you know, Atlanta being at home and
coming off of bye two weeks to prep for this team.
They should have a better effort than a lot of teams,
and most NFL games are pretty close.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Bucks think about this. Let's say that they had pulled
the rabbit out of their hat and they beat the Patriots, Right,
what do you think this number would be?
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Probably seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
That's what I think too. So I think you're getting
value here with Buffalo. So I think people are overestimating
a little bit in this line what happened last week
to the Buffalo Bills. So I think there's value with Buffalo.
I just don't want to bet it because.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Yeah, I don't want to take Atlanta either, because we
saw them lose thirty to zip to Carolina. Right. This
is a wishy, washy team right now. Michael Penix is
a young starter. He's gonna have hits and misses. I
do think that this. I do like your overplay too,
because I think that this Buffalo defense can be taken
advantage of.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Right now. Yeah, if you put the Bills, by the
way minus four and a half with the over forty
nine and a half, you get plus two forty five.
That's an interesting way to just kind of if you're
just gonna go all in on this game. That's the
way to do it.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Now.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Game number two, we have the Chicago Bears two and
two off thereby against the Washington Commanders, who got Jaydon
Daniels and got back on the win column last week.
The Commanders are four and a half point favorites at home,
which makes sense. You're getting plus four and a half
on the Bears. That's the best consensus line at betting
pros forty nine for the over, fifty and a half
for the under, plus two hundred on the money line
for the Chicago Bears, minus two fifteen on the money
(05:44):
line for the Commanders. You know, I'm trying my bet
No McLaurin for this game. Again, I'm trying my best.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
People question now, didn't practice on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Well, I think the debo questionable thing is like, look,
we just need to put debo and bubble rap because
we can't afford to lose anybody else. I'm sure he's
gonna play. I'm not too concerned about that. But again,
I don't love this one. I'm more apt to go
Buffalo in the over than I am to touch this
game at all. But if I had to lean on
this one, my lean right now would be towards Washington
with the four and a half, just because I feel
(06:16):
like the Bears make mistakes and they just they're their
own worst enemy at times. And with the fact that
the Washingt Commanders run the football so effectively, they're leading
the league and rushing this year, people won't realize that
as a team, and that was with Daniel's missing some games.
I think they can control this game a little bit
more and take advantage of some of those mistakes. So
that's my thought. But again, don't love this. I definitely
(06:36):
like the other one more for the over. That's my
favorite of these two games. But Bogs, where do you
stand with this one?
Speaker 2 (06:41):
I feel like this is a field goal game, so
if you're gonna give me more than three, I'm gonna
take points. So I'm gonna take the plus four and
a half With Chicago, they are coming off of buy
as well, a couple weeks to prepare for this game.
But I kind of like an overplay in this one
as well. I might be a little overhappy here, but
you know, we have a lot of injuries in the
Chicago secondary. Obviously they are injuries for Washington's offense as well,
(07:06):
but I think Jayden Daniels, like you said, is going
to be able to have a big game. I like
the fact that we get Ben Johnson for two weeks
to draw plays for this game as well, So I
like a nice back and forth shootout here, So give
me the over in this one. I also take Chicago
plus the points.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
All right, let's start with the props here, and it's
always easier when we get two games to choose from.
Let's start with Bill mister Krosky merrit himself, Tom Brady's
new favorite running back. Sixty three and a half is
the number for the rushing yards. And I was toying
around with this one. The projections have this very close Bogs,
but you're taking an over. So where's the confidence coming here?
Because obviously the projections are very spot on here with
(07:43):
this line. So what is it about that Bears defense?
You think there's a hole in where we can exploit
it the other way?
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Well, I think there's two things. Number One, Grady Jarrett
looks like he's not going to go in this game.
But also the Bears run defense is thirty first in
yards allowed per game, they're twenty eighth and run defense
great on PFF also, Chrisriguez probably not going to play
in this game. And you know, in two of the
three games that Bill has played with Jade Daniels, he's
had much better rushing totals than he had with Mariota.
(08:10):
So I think that you know, Jayden being here plus
being down a couple of weapons, plus a bad Bears
run defense, that's that's three strikes here out. Let's go
get this over.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
Okay, So the over for JCM here in this one.
B Jon Robinson. I've got a Bjon Bett coming later
in the show that I'm very enamored of, But this
rushing prop is seventy three and a half for him,
and you're taking the over. I know it was a
slow first game out of the game for him, but
after that we've been pretty close to this number. So
let's talk about the game log of b Jhon Robinson
and arrested B Jon Robinson against the Bills defense that
(08:44):
frankly is trouble stopping a lot of people.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
And this is the last week. I feel like you're
really going to be able to take advantage of the
front seven for the Bills, Right, Michael Hoyt, Larry Ogunjobi,
two guys that they signed had that six week suspension,
so this is it. This is the last time, this
last game they're going to miss. So you're still down
those two guys at Oliver's banged up. TJ. Sanders looks
to be out. They are definitely less than one hundred
(09:07):
percent if they play in this game. And what do
you do when you are across from Josh Allen? You
run the ball, you slow the pace, you keep the
ball away from Josh Allen. So I think be Sean
is going to have tons of carries in this game.
Obviously he's explosive as well. So if he's getting a
bunch of carries, plus it's still a banged up and
suspended front seven for the Bills here, I think be
(09:29):
Sean's gonna eat all right.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Speaking of Josh Allen, he's gonna have to pull this
team up by the haunches as he always does. The
number is two to twenty eight and a half here
on the passing yards. We want to go over or
under that for Josh.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
I mean I want to go over this. I feel
like this game is going to be a little shootout y, right.
I mean I think that the Buffalo defense last week
was smoked by New England and that was in twenty five,
twenty nine a possession for New England. So this might
need to play a little bit more. Point for point,
Atlanta pass defense has been strong, but after Mayfield, they
faced JJ mccarthen his second start, Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota.
(10:05):
That's why they have good statistical Uh you know, they
look good in the stats and they grade well. Uh,
it's you got to kind of dig a little deeper
and see that strength to schedule. Right, So I think
that Josh Allen will be able to pass all over
this team, and I think this number is set too low.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Yeah, let's get to the next one here on the
list here, which is actually DeAndre Swift. Now it's interesting
because coming out of this buy, I was really looking
forward to seeing what kalle man on Guy might be
able to do in this backfields, a little bit of
a shift there, especially since Swift has not played well.
That touchdown he had kind of masked some of the
bad play in the last game we saw. But unfortunately
Man Guy picked up an injury this week, so some
(10:43):
questionable thoughts whether or not he's going to play again.
We've got more time, but we're recording this Friday morning,
So again we don't know exactly what's going to happen here,
how this backfield does shake out, But there could be
some value here with Swift if indeed Manong Guy is
out to jump on early bogs, So let's talk about it.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
I mean, the real thing here is is that, uh, look,
just Manog Guy is probably not gonna play, and this
is a bye He didn't practice on a Thursday after
a bye week. That's a really bad sign. Like if
you're coming off a game and you want to be
rested because you're playing Monday, sometimes you use Thursday as
a veteran rest day instead of Wednesday as a veteran
(11:21):
rest day, right, Joey. But this is not a veteran
and you're off of a bye week. So I don't
think monag Guy is going to play in this game.
So I think DeAndre Swift gets a lot of run
because Roshan has been on this roster and they've given
him nothing. He hasn't touched the football yet, so he
will definitely get touches in this game. But I think
you know, if you're that if you're if he's that
(11:43):
low in your depth chart, kind of like De Mercado
was for the Cardinals before everybody got hurt there. I
don't know how much you're gonna trust this dude. So
I love Roshan. I think he's a great running back,
power back for sure, my boy from Texas, but doesn't
seem like Ben Johnson likes him. So two weeks to
prep for this game, I think we're going see a
lot of design nice plays here. I think Swift can
(12:03):
get this on like ten to twelve touches. I mean,
you know they're still giving up Washington four yards per
carry even though the defense has been strong. So you
give him twelve carries, thirteen carries. He should get this,
and I think he gets that with no Manangai in
this game.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
Yeah, I think it's the volume. It's just the volume
player right now for him here potentially this one. It's smart,
all right. DJ Moore is the next one here, thirty
nine and a half receiving yards. This one again kind
of tricky. It's been like the Roma Doonesday Show. So
can we get to this low number? I mean every
week we look up and it's less and less for
DJ Moore, feels like and still we have to hold
our breath to see if he can get there? Can
he get there for thirty nine and a half?
Speaker 2 (12:40):
I think so? I mean, look, I know that coming
off of buy, maybe Luther Burden sees a little bit
more in this game. I know people are concerned with that,
but projections are way over Every projection I saw was
way over this for DJ Moore this week. And if
it's if we're putting tree Amos on a doonsday right,
because he's played the best. So if he goes to
cover their best wide receiver, it's gonna be Marshaw the
(13:03):
ghost of Marshaw Lattimore covering Dj Moore here. And I
know DJ Moore hasn't had a great year, but he's
still way better than Latimore at this point in his
career because Latimore is eighty eight of one hundred and
twelve great cornerbacks and coverage this season, so giving up
one of his worst completion percentages in his careers. So
I think that Dj Moore is going to be open
(13:23):
in this game. Like we said, we'd like this to
go a little bit more point for point with some
guys being hurt in the secondary for Chicago and Chicago
coming off of bye with two weeks for Johnson to
drop some plays. I think that this is going to
go point for point. I think I think a lot
of wide receivers eat in this game. It's all the
guys with the bears and whoever the hell plays for
(13:43):
the commanders. And remember prop bet chi chi is available
to help you with all the props bettingpros dot com,
slash props. It's the way you find the best value
there on the board, takes the projections, takes the lines,
gives you the best possible house to vet it in.
That's the whole point of the prop bet chi sheet.
So use the tools there. It's fantastic. Love the prop
bet chie sheet. That's what we use.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Here and we're telling you to do the same thing
that we're doing here. Get out there, download the apps.
Think your sportsbooks for free. And speaking to sportsbooks, don't
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That's just one more reason to check out the hard
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Cleveland hasn't covered the spread on road games in seven
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DeAndre Swift has to got a touchdown, by the way
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All right, let's take a look at the next one. Here,
it's the step and I've gone stone cold. Week one
(15:50):
was great. I'm a week one wonder. That's it. But
I'm gonna try my best to just put the head down,
keep working. That's all I gotta do. About the past
here talking about your past, talking about the future.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Jon hit you hit two though you're still up units
for the.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
I am, I am, but it doesn't matter. I want
to hit every week. I want to hit one every week.
I know that's ridiculous, but it's just it's the perfections
in me box. I just want to hit it. I
want to be I want to be there for the people.
So it's gonna be s g joep with a lowercase
P pretty soon if we don't get out of this
tail span. So let's take Bjon Robinson to get in
the end zone. If he doesn't go against the Bills,
(16:27):
I'll just be shocked. Then I want to give myself
somewhere outs here one hundred and twelve and a half
rushing plus receiving, So this gives me options here. So
he has a big day rushing to football, great, If
he has a big day receiving the football, great, he
has a big day period all over the place. Great.
I've got a lot of options there, plus the touchdown.
Then I'm gonna add Deebo Samuel over sixteen and a
half receiving cards at minus one fourteen. I do think
(16:48):
he will play. If he does not play, I would
just pin this down to the two to the b
Jon Robinson two stats here and you're not getting plus
three forty nine then, But when you add in debo.
I think you can make that work here for plus
three forty nine and I do think he will play.
So that is the SGP of the week here for
Monday Night Football and Gorse. We got the SGP tool
still going on. Same game parlay tool over on Betting
(17:10):
Pros right now helps you correlate some of the bets
you want to make and how to spin them in
one game into an SGP. So it's a really fun
tool there on Betting Pros which brings us to our
touchdown calls. And I'm going to go look for zach
Ertz to bounce back here. Jane Daniels is back under center.
Eartz has been quiet. I think we get back to
business here with zach Ertz and he gets a tuddy
And I like the number two plus two ten bogs
(17:32):
where you're going for your touchdown call this week.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
I feel like the touchdown calls are juiced to hell
this week, like they are. They want to.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Action on Monday's Nobody don't want anybody to have action
on Monday.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Debo is bad. I just went to double up close
you care got nine targets last week starting to lead
the Bills. Let's just go with him to find the
end zone. Double up our money here. If we're thinking
this is going to be a nice shootout game, both
these games hopefully are nice shootout games, then I think
we can get there. So let's go with Shakir for
a touchdown to double up some money here.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
You know last year of the Bills didn't think they
had enough a wide receiver and they traded for Marii Cooper,
which did not work right right at all? Do you
think they try that again this year where they go,
you know, we still don't have enough a wide receiver,
and if so, who do you think that would be?
Set of curios?
Speaker 2 (18:17):
I don't think they're gonna do it right because I
think we see Kincaid, who's the guy I want to
bet on a lot in this game in particular, but
he's banged up and may not play. I think Kinkaid
is developing. I think they're getting way more from Coleman
than they had last year as well, So I don't
think they are going to make the move. If they
do make them move, I think they trade for somebody big.
I don't think it's like a limp move, like a
(18:39):
Marii Cooper. I think he go after something much bigger,
trade a first or second round pick and lose your
window here.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
If you're the Bills, you know Josh Allen's at his prime.
You know you're still in a division that's relatively soft.
Although my patriot's starting to knock on the door a
little bit getting better there.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
So Miami's better than people give him credit for. And
the Jets are worse than people give him credit for.
It seems like, uh, you know, no one was giving
them much credit.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
Will the Jets be allowed back in the country if
they go oh and six?
Speaker 2 (19:06):
That's a question.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Let me know the answer to that question down in
the comments below. Will the Jets be allowed back in
New York in the airport if they lose another game
here and go to O and six? It's a yes
or no, But still we love to hear from you
and again, go win the new Nick Chubb giveaway we
got going on right now from Pristine Auction dot com,
and of course, don't forget to download the betting pros
app bets Smarter or Not Harder and make all your
(19:28):
bets at hard Rock Bet. That'll do it for us.
But the story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman,
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy
your Monday night football games plural good times good.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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