October 14, 2025 • 29 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Andrew Erickson as they highlight their favorite Week 7 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Week 6 Recap - 0:00:20
Browns -2.5 vs Miami - 0:01:15
Patriots -7 vs Tennessee - 0:03:11
DET/TB over 52.5 - 0:07:06
Bucs +5.5 - 0:08:55
Denver -7 - 0:09:55
Seahawks -3.5 - 0:13:04
BettingPros App - 0:16:44
Survivor Selections - 0:17:14
Hard Rock Bet - 0:22:04
Lock It In Now - Browns & Cowboys - 0:23:10
BettingPros Pick Tracker - 0:27:20
Final Thoughts - 0:27:45
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's up, guys? How are you? It's time for early bets,
survivor and plays to make right now in week seven
of the NFL, he is Andrew Erickson. I am at
pat is much of where patfast Morres is. Pat is
off somewhere today. So Ericsson's in how are you, my friend?
Are Patriots are in first place? It's a good day.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Yeah? No, I rewatching that Bills game. I'm thinking, Wait,
Bills are four and two. Patrick's four and two, Hatred's
beat the Bills. That means at the top of the
AC East, the Jets are at the bottom. All is
right in the world alt.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
It's quite remarkable. Drake may is in the top ten
for MVP options from a betting perspective, which is crazy.
Let's see if it continues. The Patriots and the Titans
get rolling here this week. We'll talk about that game
here in a little bit. But overall, how did week
six go for you? From a betting perspective?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Went three and two on the best bets from the show,
So happy about that a positive A winning week. Didn't
do nearly as well on the props, but yeah, I'm
looking forward to getting back at a week's Yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
I had a good week six sopefully we can continue
with it. I went four to OHO on Sunday, so
we'll see how how this week winds up going. All right,
we do three picks and then a survivor, and then
we get into a play to make right away, let's
start with your first play here on a Tuesday. What
would you make from a bet perspective? Right now? For
Week seven, I want.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
The Browns, everything Browns related against the Miami Dolphins. I
think that Miami the TUA press conference, things are starting
to unravel here, and I think that we'll talk about
Callahan how he got fired. But once one coach gets fired,
I feel like everyone else feels like, Okay, well, now
I don't have to be the first GM or monor
to fire my coach. So I feel like, now it's okay,
(01:42):
Mike McDaniel, are you next? Because you were the first
coach fire? But maybe you're the second coach fired. And
I just think that this is a terrible spot for
the Miami Dolphins. Again, Cleveland plays so much better at home,
especially on the defensive side of the football. I don't
know how his teammates feel about to right now. I
think this Offen is going to strugg immensely. That defense
is trash. We know the Browns can run the football
(02:03):
all over with Quinshaw Judkins. I mean the Browns last week,
it was coming off a terrible spot. They were coming
off a game in London. It was their third road game.
Rookie quarterback making his first start on the road. This
is his first start in home, not overseas, not against
the divisional rival coming off a bye week, but against
the Miami Dolphins. I mean, Dylan Gabriel is a favorite
at home, Like as a rookie quarterback, I think that's tough.
(02:27):
I don't think this line is honestly big enough. Like
I want all the Browns. I think that the Browns
are going to destroy Miami. I think this me McDaniel's
last game as the Dolphins head coach.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
I like it. My only concern is the offense and
what we saw with Gabriel's decision making the last two weeks.
I'm a little bit gun shy on the turnover perspective
for him, but I'd like the two and a half.
I think, if you bet it now, because I think
you're right, I think this thing's going to go to
three or higher. So I think if you can get
in on under three with the Browns, I like it
(02:55):
a lot. I the firing of Mike McDaniel, it's going
to be interesting because the Dolphins are such a mess.
Tyreek Hill is not coming back, and you have so
much money invested into Like, is it really even I
think they should have fired Mike McDaniel a while ago,
and they just have sat on it. And I wonder
if they just gonna let the whole string play out
(03:17):
here and hope for a draft pick, you know, one,
two or three tank essentially, and go down and then
fire Mike McDaniel at the end. But it could happen
mid season. I just don't know if they're trying to
If you fire the coach midseason, are you trying to
save the season. Like That's why I don't get what
the Titans did. I think the Titans. People think I'm
crazy for this, but I think the Titans fired because
(03:37):
Rabel's coming in. They fired Brian Callahan because they didn't
want to have to fire Brian Callahan after the week.
For Vrabel to kind of go and you know, rub
your nose in it, saying two years ago you had
this guy and he rolls back in with the Patriots
and blows your doors off. So I think they fired
him ahead of time to avoid that and to kind
of keep the fan base, you know, at least a
little bit focused on this season. I don't know what
(03:59):
the dolphin is and was thinking about. They're not going anywhere,
so why fire him? Just let him sit there and
lose every football game and then fire him at the
end of the season. But I'm with you on the Browns.
I think it's a good play here with Cleveland at home.
Speaking of the Patriots, I'll lay the seven points. I
just I think this is a different Patriot team. I
know they're on a road trip. Third straight game for
(04:19):
them on the road at Buffalo, at New Orleans, and
now here against a Titans team. But the off the
field focus for the Patriots, I think it's going to
be really high. If this was any other team than
Mike Rabel's former team, I would say this is a trap,
like this is a danger spot. This is a game
I would never get involved with because the Patriots will
(04:39):
most likely lose this game or win by three, just
because we've seen it before. Young football team. Everyone's stinging
their praises, but Vrabel said it on Monday on Boston Radio.
He was like, look, we are focused here going into this,
and anytime you go back to a place you used
to work, you're bringing a little extra moxie. I think
Drake May and company Gino Smith threw a over this team.
(05:00):
The Patriots are gonna be able to run the ball
just like the Raiders did with ash jinenty and come on,
cam Moore just doesn't have weapons. Ridley now is hurt
for them, so now they don't have anybody to throw
to give me the Patriots minus seven.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Yeah, my only concern is just the dead cat bounce
right where we just see teams just like for no
reason whatsoever, because the teams are all bad that when
their coaches get fired. So from a schematic, you're looking
at the players on the field. Yeah, it makes all
the sense in the world. But it is seven points
and is on the road, so that's just a big
number to lay. Again, if Callahan was still the coach,
(05:36):
I would I would feel better about Mike Brabel actually
going down them and covering the larger spreads. So I
think I'm just gonna probably shy away from it just
because of the dead cat bounce. But I think everything
that you pointed out is accurate.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Look, the Tuesday move has been a long standing gambling
tradition to watch because the limits, the first limit move
goes to Tuesday. They open it up, not as big
as they get when they get to Friday, but you
have the opening number, and then Tuesday you get the
limits open up. After Monday Night football, the game was six,
it's now seven and a half. At certain books, you're
seeing where the pro money is coming in. They also
(06:08):
might be driving this thing as high as possible and
taking the Titans. Okay, this is one hundred percent of
head fake potential. But I think if you can get
six and a half or seven on the Patriots, now
get in early, I think you're going to be okay
at the end of the day. I just don't think
cam Ward's going to be able to do much here
against this Patriots defense in the pass rush. We saw
it last week against the Saints and what they did
(06:29):
to another young quarterback, not being able to understand where
the reds are coming from, and then the weapons just
aren't there. They just aren't there for the Titans here,
and who's going to be there if you're a Titan fan,
are you showing up to that game? Like? Are you
excited to sit in the stands and go and watch
an interim head coach and a first year quarterback up
against the guy that was on your sidelines two years ago,
(06:51):
the guy that was the number one seed at one
point in time in the AFC. With the Titans roll
back in with a first place football team and a
young quarterback, bad vibes, bad vibes in that building all
the way around for you play number two of this week,
what do you like?
Speaker 2 (07:06):
I am going to the totals here with the Buccaneers
playing the Detroit Lions. I want the over in this game.
I don't care how high it is, fifty two and
a half, fifty three and a half. I just want
the over. We see this all the time with the
Lions games. It's one of the most profitable bets that
you can make is betting the over when the Lions
are playing at home. And I know that, as we'll
get into is I know you like the Buccaneers as
I do as well, just because you just bet on
(07:28):
Baker Mayfield when he's in a road underdog every single time.
But my hesitance with it is the trends on the
other side, where the Lions are one of the best
teams against the spread, especially after they lose, Like Dan
Campbell knows exactly what to do with his guys. So
I think that you just see both teams to kind
of perform above expectation. Lions offense cooks Baker Mayfield does
it with it doesn't seem like it matters who his
(07:49):
receivers are Tess Johnson, Sterling Shepherd. He's going to get
it done, Kada. And as bad as the receivers are
injury wise for the Buccaneers, it's equally as bad for
the Lions and their secondary, Like who do they have left?
Bryan Branch just got suspended, right, so they're running out
of bodies to cover. So even though it's kind of
like the JV team is out for the Buccaneers at receiver.
And there's a chance also that Mike Evans comes back,
(08:10):
so again getting some potential early line die because if
he plays, that's a massive swing in terms of will
this game go over the total? I think ultimately will
I don't think that I'm going to be sweating the
fifteen and a half, but I want to get on
it right now, because that's just the approach I look
at with these Lions games at home.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
I love that play, but I also like the dog
as well. And I think, you wait, let the public
bet the Lions. Let this thing climb, and I think
you're gonna get six, You could even get six and
a half. You money even get seven by the time
we get to kick off here, because everyone's going to
be on the trends that you're talking about. In terms
of the Lions off of a loss at home, they
have been over the last three seasons. They've been the
(08:46):
most profitable team to bet on against the number in
the NFL, and again, like you said, against the spread
after they lose equally so. But this is Baker and
like you mentioned Branch being out, there's no one left
in that secondary for the Lions. Like again, I don't
care who's out there, there are, they're gonna be professional
wide receivers running around for Baker Mayfield. And Baker is
(09:07):
playing at an MVP level at the moment. I can't
bet against him. The first thing I do is I
look and see where are the Bucks. I have a
big bet on the Bucks to win the division. They're
off to a five and one start. I was at
a bar here in Vegas watching the game last week
for the Bucks and that run that Baker Mayfield had
on third and thirteen to pick up the first down.
(09:28):
The entire bar was on its feet, the entire place.
Whether you bet on him or not, everybody was like,
this guy is on a mission, like he is possessed.
Week prior to go to Seattle. They hang thirty eight
points on that Seattle defense. They come back home against
the forty nine Ers, they beat the Niners. Things are
right right now in Tampa. Give me the points six,
six and a half. I like the Bucks, but I
(09:49):
like you're over two in this game. So two different
levels you can approach. Bet number three for you, where
are you going?
Speaker 2 (09:55):
I Am going to Denver. I'm going to lay the
points with the Denver Broncos against the New York Giants.
One of the trends I've been on this year is
betting against the rookie quarterbacks when they're playing on the road,
and that has been profitable. It's been three to zero
again if you count the neutral start for Dylan Gabriel
against betting against cam Ward again. This was the one
spot where actually didn't work out because the Denver Broncos
(10:16):
just vomited all of themselves in Week one and the
Times ended up covering that spread. But besides that, it's
been very profitable. And the same thing with even Jackson Dark.
I mean, the guy looks completely different when he's playing
at home against more of a depleted defense versus playing
on the road.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Again.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
He lost outright to the Saints on the road as
an underdog, and now going to Denver, one of the
toughest places to play for a rookie quarterback. There is
no laie neighbors. He's not coming back. Denver showed last
week that they're not going to give up exposive plays,
so I don't think that Camp Scattabu is gonna nearly
have as much success rushing against the Denver Broncos. So
even though the Giants are coming off extra rest playing
on Thursday, Denver is coming off a game in London,
(10:52):
I still like laying the Broncos. I mean, Sean Payton
is gonna be riding his guys all week, especially on
the offensive side of the ball, where they were terrible
on off it. They couldn't do anythink Bonicks is making mistakes.
It couldn't run run the football effectively. What can you
do against the New York Giants is run the football,
and that puts the play action back into the offense
makes things a little bit easier for Bonis. So I
think Denver gets takes air business here at home. They
(11:13):
usually beat up on good teams. Think Sean Payt's could
write the ship here and take care of business.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
One thing that I really like about the Broncos team
this week, in particular, is the love of Jackson Dart
in cam Skataboo that the public currently has. So when
you see teams that are getting a ton of hype,
who stink because the Giants stink, This is a great
time to fade them, because I think you might get
(11:38):
six and a half. This number opened up at eight,
it's down to seven. It might get to six and
a half. It might keep on dropping. Everyone's going to
be on the Giants. This is going to be Oh
it's cam Skataboo. Look what this guy is doing. Three
rushing touchdowns. Jackson Dart's going to be able to move
the football on the ground. No, he's not. I don't
believe Sean Payton's at home, going to allow this offense
to do anything. And without Molik neighbors, they don't have
(12:01):
many weapons. Okay. And last week again he's got two
wins at home and then a loss to the Saints
on the road. Okay, the Broncos were a much better
football team and a much more difficult place to play
at Mile High than it is to play in New Orleans. Yes,
I will bet this. I will be on your side.
I'm just waiting. I want six and a half if
I can get a better number. And if it goes
(12:23):
below seven, I want six and a half. And it's
coming down. It's seven here in Vegas. It might get
there because the public is in love.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, I'm seeing right, I see right now in the
betting pros Live odds that Novig has as miney six
and a half so far to see it kind of
go down. So to your point, this is one to
wait on because especially the public money. They love Jackson Dowry,
they love Campskatavo.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
You can have it all you want, Okay, you can
have the craziness all you want. I love going against
the narrative that, oh my gosh, they found their next boy. Wonder.
Sure he's winning home games. Guys, he's got two wins,
both at home. Enjoy it. And you're on the road
against Denver. Yeah, it's gonna be a reality check time
for the New York Giants. From my final, I'm going
to Monday night and I got Seattle at home against
(13:09):
Look that there are I guess it's it's one night. Yeah,
this is a yeah against Houston. I don't like Houston's
offense at all, and it's three and a half down
to three at certain places, it's been a two and
a half point open here for the Sales Seahawks. I
like what I saw last week. I think this offense
is humming at the moment. I know the Texans defense
(13:30):
is really really good, but going in primetime, things are
unraveling in a lot of ways in the tech with
the Texans. I don't like Houston. They're coming off of
a bye. I'll give you that. I know that that's
one little scary factor here. But give me the Seahawks
minus three and Sam Darnold at home in primetime. I
think they get the job done. I want this number
before it client crosses three. Three and a half is possible.
(13:52):
Four could be possible. But time we get the kickoff,
give me the two and a half or the three.
On the Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Agreed on the two and a half or three. I
think that if it's three and a half, that's probably
where I get a little bit more gun shy, just
because I don't think there's gonna be a lot of
scoring in this game. I think that both these teams
identify as hey, we're very very strong defensively, they're both
kind of top heavy when it comes to their receivers.
You have a Nico Collins is the number one, Jason
is the number one, and then after that it's kind
of just like depth pieces. You're expecting Houston to have
(14:19):
some type of answer offensively coming out of their bye week,
you know, in the lab doing something. I think they're
going to try to run the ball, because if they
were just dropping back to throw, they're gonna be screwed.
We saw last week's Seattle on the road against the Jaguars.
They pressure Trevor Lawrence on fifty percent of his dropbacks
fifty So I was like, so every other time he
went back to throw, Withers pressure in his face, and
(14:39):
we know the text offens. The line has been terrible,
specifically past blocking this year, so if they're trying to
run the football again, keep it a closer game. We
know the Texans like to play a lot of close games,
except when they're facing the Ravens backups essentially, so I
think that this game is tight. But I agree I
like the Seahawks with the home team and have anything.
I kind of like the under two. I just don't
(15:00):
think this is an explosive, high flying game, especially with
the ten o'clock window. I'm not watching this game live.
I'm gonna be rewatching this game the next morning, and
I don't think I'm going to be missing a scoring bonanza.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Do you think the NFL is setting us up to
kill Thursday with a number of Monday night games we're
having with two of them. Do you think that they're
kind of testing the waters to see if the games
on Monday night have higher ratings that they might say, okay,
Thursday night football. People have seen the football be crap
for so long that they might move it.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
Yeah, that's an interesting thought. I know I was talking
to my wife about just how you know, there's London games,
there's Thursday games, there's two Monday games, and to me
sometimes it feels like it's kind of like diluting how
great they used to be, Like, oh, Monday football and
it's really special occasion, but well now there's three games
on Monday, so it's not really as special. But at
the same time, to your point, you know, it's all
about the ratings and if you put football on at
(15:52):
six o'clock in the morning, someone's gonna watch. It doesn't
matter just because how popular this sport is. So I
think that the Rings are always going to do well.
But when you're comparing them side by side, yeah, I
think that the NFL may find, well, these Monday games
are doing much better. People are staying up to watch
them at ten o'clock versus watching them at eight fifteen
on a Thursday night kickoff. So yeah, I think it's
a really interesting point to bring out.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
I like the two Mondays way better than Thursdays because
the football is better. Personally, if you're going to go
to an EF you're gonna go do an eighteen game schedule.
I think if that's the ultimate goals to have eighteen
games here for the NFL, I think you have to
figure out, well, when does it break, like, when are
we asking too much of the human body to go
and play this many games? And I think one thing
that might be taking a look at it is saying, Okay,
(16:34):
we're going to play two Monday night games and not
have the Thursday. But the Amazon contract is quite large,
so you know, that's a lot of money for the NFL,
and that's what they like. They like a whole lot
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and all. Like Pat and I talk about every week,
(17:16):
everyone Survivor path is going to be different. So we're
going to give you a couple of different thoughts as
to who can win, depending if you have that team
available or not. But in Survivor, regardless off somebody, if
you have them are not available, where does your eye go?
Eric ericson for a Survivor pick this week?
Speaker 2 (17:32):
So I talked about the Broncos against the spread. I
still like them here as well against the Giants at home.
I think that they're Survivor pick. Obviously. The chalkiest one
is probably the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Just playing at home. Like if you have probably it is.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
That one's pretty easy. It doesn't really require much analysis.
They're going to win. I mean, maybe they don't cover
the now rising like eleven to twelve point spread, but
twelve and a half, yeah, they're they're probably gonna win.
They're playing at home against Ginosmith. So again, the Raiders
won't last week because they're playing the Titans like that,
that's really why. And so I guess my other one
that's maybe a little bit more off the board is
(18:05):
I actually like the Bears at home against the Saints. Again,
Bears are playing on a short week, but yep, I
Spencer Ratler's won one game in his NFL career, and
it was at home against the rookie quarterback. So even
though the Bears are playing a short week, I like
them playing at home at Soldier Field. Caleb Williams is
much better against the number and straight up when he
plays at home. Again, emotional win on Monday night. Maybe
(18:28):
that kind of is the one hesitance. But again, if
you're out of great options, I still like the Bears.
Skin you're betting against the New Orleans Saints who haven't
won a lot of games, Spencer Rattlers, So I think
that's probably where i'd go if I don't have options
like the Chiefs or the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Yeah, I think the easy too on the board, Denver
and Kansas City. As to how you're going to go,
I was on the Colts last week, sort of like
an off the beaten path pick, and I think the
Patriots equally are off the beaten path, you know. Conversation.
Do the Patriots go to Titans to Tennessee and lose?
I'd find it really to see Mike Vrabel's team against
an awful an awful Titans team we just fired their
(19:04):
head coach. Losing. Do they cover the seven? That's debatable.
I just can't see the Patriots losing the game outright
going to the Titans. Drake May would have to play
really poorly or get hurt, or something catastrophic would have
to happen in order for the Patriots to lose this game.
The Titans were handed a victory by the Cardinals. They
should have zero wins. They have one because of the
(19:26):
football gods and dropping ball to at the goal line
and everything else that happened in that football game the
flukiest of fluky things. So I think if you're looking
for that off the beaten path pick, I think the
Patriots over the Titans would be a popular way, But
that would only be if you didn't have Denver, didn't
have Kansas City available to be used. If you do,
(19:47):
I think your Denver pick. I think the pick of
the week should be the Denver Broncos against the Giants.
I love fading Road rookie quarterbacks on this, and I
think Sean Payton is a little bit upset with the
ways to bone Nicks needs to get going, like Bonnicks
needs to start picking it up a little bit for Denver.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
Yeah, agreed, And again I'm thinking bit more about these
Patriots batter because I just think it's really fascinating with
very able going back down to Tennessee. And I think
that in itself kind of counteracts that the dead cat bounce.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
Where I agree, in most situations, it's.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Not this type of setup where it is a head
coach that I don't care who the head coach is.
I don't care if it's Mike McCoy, I don't care
if it was Callahan, Like I want to kill this team,
like it doesn't matter. So I think I'm kind of
changing my tune a little bit there with the Patrio's
see where the number settles. But from a survivor standpoint, yeah,
I think that the Patriots, even if they don't cover,
I think that they are going to win this game.
(20:37):
And to your point, it would take some type of
wackiness where the Tennessee Titans are getting a bunch of
turnovers and things are kind of going off script where
the Patriots don't end up winning this game. But again,
that can happen in any football game. It's it's a
weirdly shaped ball, weird things can happen. But I think
the confidence play would definitely be on the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Boute is playing at a really high level. We've seen
digs have monster games during this stretch. For the Patriots,
I think they get the running game going Drake May.
It's remarkable. I mean, you're a Patriot fan. Watching a
Patriot quarterback be a competent passer and runner of the football.
We've never seen it before. We've seen one of the
other We've seen certain quarterbacks coming who could run. We've
(21:16):
seen Brady for twenty years stand back there and not move.
Now we've got a guy who can throw the deep
ball and can run, and he's a weapon with the legs.
So I just think it's a lot to ask of
this Titans team after going up and I watched closely
in the Raider game and I was like, give me
a break. This team is awful, Like they are just
absolutely horrible. And the only way the Patriots lose this
game is that they beat themselves. And I find it
(21:36):
really hard that this team won't be looking. And I
don't think they can overlook the Titans given who their
coach is, Like Rabel hates the Titans like he hates
the Titans, so I think he's gonna be This is
gonna be a pretty electric week of practice for the Patriots,
and I wouldn't be surprised if Rabel puts on pads
himself and gets out there and starts smacking around some people,
(21:59):
given how far fired up he's going to be to
go back to Nashville to play to play the Titans. Guys,
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Speaker 1 (23:10):
Let's talk about plays you would fire on right now?
Is there a bet you would want to take before
the line moves Browns.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
That's definitely the one I want to say, just because
I think that the vibes of Miami aren't going to
improve throughout the weekend. I think bet people are going
to convince themselves that, yeah, this team is going in
the wrong direction. And I agree. This is just a
bad spot for them on the road. They don't play
well on the road. Usually it's December where they run
into issues. But I think early on this season, meaning
this team went up to Indianapolis in Week one and
(23:38):
just got curve stopped in Week one and in a dome.
Now you're going outdoors against Cleveland. That defense is going
to be pinning its ears to try to rattle to it.
And I know that you were concerned about the Dylan
Gabriel turnovers to it is going to turn them all
over a ton in this game. So I think this
is Miami's This is going to be a bad game
for the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
For me, I want the over for Dallas in Washington.
It's fifty four and a half at the moment right now,
I think that number is going to climb. I really
don't know how high that number is going to go.
But if you're betting an under on a Cowboys game,
good luck. I don't know how you do that at
the moment. In particular at home, Jane Daniels and the
Commanders I think are going to be able to throw
the ball and they may get some of their wide
receivers back we'll see what the injury situation looks like
(24:21):
for the Commanders. But if they score less than twenty
four points against that defense, I'm going to be stunned.
Dallas can't stop anybody, and I think on the flip side,
the Cowboys offense just moves the football. George Pickens is
playing at an incredible level at the moment. They can
run the ball on Washington. We saw what the what
the Brent, what the Bears did last night to that defense.
Give me the over fifty four and a half. Bet
(24:43):
it before it moves, because I think that thing might
close at fifty six.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Yeah, it's only going to go up. I also kind
of like the Dallas team total as well. It's kind
of like a value a way to attack it because
they're underdogs, but they're also at home, so like you,
I feel like you're getting a kind of a value
a little bit on their specific number, but agree they're
there's gonna be points.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Huge opportunity for the Cowboys. They really, I mean they
need a win, like they need a win here and
instincts because like if you're a Cowboy fan, if they
had won that game against the Panthers, which most pros
were hammering the Panthers. But if they'd won that game,
they'd be three to two in one and they'd be
half a game behind the Eagles, who are four and two.
(25:22):
Do the Eagles lose this week, they can lose again.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
See that's the thing with the Eagles. One of their
trends is they don't perform well after a losses like
they they like stack like bad game after bad games,
so complete opposite of the lines too, like always rebound.
The Eagles continue to expire and.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
They're playing the Vikings, who literally have to win this game,
like the Vikings season not completely hinging, but like they
need this game, like this is a big game for
the Vikings to play, coming off of a bye for
last week, they have the Eagles coming to their place.
They're two and a half point dogs at home to
the Eagles. Oh my Goodwe if.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
The Eagles are like Mitchell doesn't play and like Carter
miss it, like, I think the Vikings will win because
the question mark is we still don't know who's starting
a quarterback for the Vikings, like Wentz or McCarthy, And
again I don't think either options Like in a Super.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Powl, it's not going to be McCarthy though, like you,
this is the bye This isn't this why you help
you hold McCarthy out and he plays him in this game?
Do you not like this is when he comes back? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (26:24):
So yeah, especially, I mean, I think it's gonna come
down to just Flores just making magic with his defense
against the Philadelphia Eagles offense. That's that's been struggling. You know,
Barkley hasn't played nearly as well as he did last year.
The offensive line has a bunch of issues. They're at
home off a bye week. Yeah, I mean, if you
just look at a lot of these circumstantial factors, you're like,
why am I not betting on the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Look, it's two and a half again. The reason why
it didn't make my card yet is because of the
quarterback situation. I want to know who's playing quarterback. But
if it's JJ McCarthy, look the numbers coming down. It's
two and a half right now. But you have a
home dog in the NFL. That's been a very profitable
thing for years, but even more so this year. Or
home dogs in the NFL, and the Eagles internally are
a mess, Like they are a mess internally at the moment.
(27:06):
Maybe they go to Minnesota and write the ship, but
that dome is not an easy place to play off
of a buye for the Vikings. If it's McCarthy, I
like the Vikings to win that football game, coming up
here and getting a w and keep the misery in Philadelphia.
Rolling guys, you want to track all your your bets
in one place. You can do so with the Betting
Pros Pick Tracker. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to
(27:28):
tally which picks hits and which miss. Plus, it gives
you a live look at what the public is doing,
so you can use real time tracking to determine which
place to make and which place to fade. Track your
picks today with the Betting Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com,
slash tracking, or on the Betting Pros app on the
way out, my friend, any final thoughts for Week seven?
Speaker 2 (27:49):
No, no, no, no final thoughts again, beware that the
dead cat bounce. But I think that the vraibel I
want to destroy the Titans is going to be a
the thing that probably matters the most we reflect on
that final score of that game.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
I'm really curious to see if the Panthers can beat
the Jets. See if that can happen. The Jets are
without I don't know. I don't know that offense can
get any worse, But I just want to see what's
going to happen in that game. Can the Panthers, who
are just a horrible team on the road, they suck
on the road, can they go to the to the meadowlands,
(28:26):
to MetLife and beat the Jets. Because if Aaron Glenn
loses at home to the Panthers, I know he's a
first year head coach, but that's zero and seven and
that's the bottom of the bottom. And I don't know
what you do if you're the Jets, because you've hired
the wrong guy. Like, if you can't beat the Panthers
at home, see you later. Like, I don't know, I
don't know how in the world you justify keeping Aaron
(28:47):
Glenn in that position if you can't beat the Panthers
at home, even with justin Fields. Because they tried to
play the craziest offensive game plan in the history of
the NFL last week. It almost worked, but it didn't.
They covered you don't play the that's great baron Glenn's
covering No way, ma'am. Guys, remember every week we're here
every Tuesday. Pat Fistmore's be back next week. He's Andrew Erkson.
(29:08):
I am Matt Parolt. To thank you for watching, We're
back next week for Week eight of the NFL Early
Betts to the Betting Pros.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
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Speaker 1 (29:26):
Also subscribe to our YouTube
Speaker 4 (29:28):
Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
What's up, guys? How are you? It's time for early bets,
survivor and plays to make right now in week seven
of the NFL, he is Andrew Erickson. I am at
pat is much of where patfast Morres is. Pat is
off somewhere today. So Ericsson's in how are you, my friend?
Are Patriots are in first place? It's a good day.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Yeah? No, I rewatching that Bills game. I'm thinking, Wait,
Bills are four and two. Patrick's four and two, Hatred's
beat the Bills. That means at the top of the
AC East, the Jets are at the bottom. All is
right in the world alt.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
It's quite remarkable. Drake may is in the top ten
for MVP options from a betting perspective, which is crazy.
Let's see if it continues. The Patriots and the Titans
get rolling here this week. We'll talk about that game
here in a little bit. But overall, how did week
six go for you? From a betting perspective?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Went three and two on the best bets from the show,
So happy about that a positive A winning week. Didn't
do nearly as well on the props, but yeah, I'm
looking forward to getting back at a week's Yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
I had a good week six sopefully we can continue
with it. I went four to OHO on Sunday, so
we'll see how how this week winds up going. All right,
we do three picks and then a survivor, and then
we get into a play to make right away, let's
start with your first play here on a Tuesday. What
would you make from a bet perspective? Right now? For
Week seven, I want.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
The Browns, everything Browns related against the Miami Dolphins. I
think that Miami the TUA press conference, things are starting
to unravel here, and I think that we'll talk about
Callahan how he got fired. But once one coach gets fired,
I feel like everyone else feels like, Okay, well, now
I don't have to be the first GM or monor
to fire my coach. So I feel like, now it's okay,
(01:42):
Mike McDaniel, are you next? Because you were the first
coach fire? But maybe you're the second coach fired. And
I just think that this is a terrible spot for
the Miami Dolphins. Again, Cleveland plays so much better at home,
especially on the defensive side of the football. I don't
know how his teammates feel about to right now. I
think this Offen is going to strugg immensely. That defense
is trash. We know the Browns can run the football
(02:03):
all over with Quinshaw Judkins. I mean the Browns last week,
it was coming off a terrible spot. They were coming
off a game in London. It was their third road game.
Rookie quarterback making his first start on the road. This
is his first start in home, not overseas, not against
the divisional rival coming off a bye week, but against
the Miami Dolphins. I mean, Dylan Gabriel is a favorite
at home, Like as a rookie quarterback, I think that's tough.
(02:27):
I don't think this line is honestly big enough. Like
I want all the Browns. I think that the Browns
are going to destroy Miami. I think this me McDaniel's
last game as the Dolphins head coach.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
I like it. My only concern is the offense and
what we saw with Gabriel's decision making the last two weeks.
I'm a little bit gun shy on the turnover perspective
for him, but I'd like the two and a half.
I think, if you bet it now, because I think
you're right, I think this thing's going to go to
three or higher. So I think if you can get
in on under three with the Browns, I like it
(02:55):
a lot. I the firing of Mike McDaniel, it's going
to be interesting because the Dolphins are such a mess.
Tyreek Hill is not coming back, and you have so
much money invested into Like, is it really even I
think they should have fired Mike McDaniel a while ago,
and they just have sat on it. And I wonder
if they just gonna let the whole string play out
(03:17):
here and hope for a draft pick, you know, one,
two or three tank essentially, and go down and then
fire Mike McDaniel at the end. But it could happen
mid season. I just don't know if they're trying to
If you fire the coach midseason, are you trying to
save the season. Like That's why I don't get what
the Titans did. I think the Titans. People think I'm
crazy for this, but I think the Titans fired because
(03:37):
Rabel's coming in. They fired Brian Callahan because they didn't
want to have to fire Brian Callahan after the week.
For Vrabel to kind of go and you know, rub
your nose in it, saying two years ago you had
this guy and he rolls back in with the Patriots
and blows your doors off. So I think they fired
him ahead of time to avoid that and to kind
of keep the fan base, you know, at least a
little bit focused on this season. I don't know what
(03:59):
the dolphin is and was thinking about. They're not going anywhere,
so why fire him? Just let him sit there and
lose every football game and then fire him at the
end of the season. But I'm with you on the Browns.
I think it's a good play here with Cleveland at home.
Speaking of the Patriots, I'll lay the seven points. I
just I think this is a different Patriot team. I
know they're on a road trip. Third straight game for
(04:19):
them on the road at Buffalo, at New Orleans, and
now here against a Titans team. But the off the
field focus for the Patriots, I think it's going to
be really high. If this was any other team than
Mike Rabel's former team, I would say this is a trap,
like this is a danger spot. This is a game
I would never get involved with because the Patriots will
(04:39):
most likely lose this game or win by three, just
because we've seen it before. Young football team. Everyone's stinging
their praises, but Vrabel said it on Monday on Boston Radio.
He was like, look, we are focused here going into this,
and anytime you go back to a place you used
to work, you're bringing a little extra moxie. I think
Drake May and company Gino Smith threw a over this team.
(05:00):
The Patriots are gonna be able to run the ball
just like the Raiders did with ash jinenty and come on,
cam Moore just doesn't have weapons. Ridley now is hurt
for them, so now they don't have anybody to throw
to give me the Patriots minus seven.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Yeah, my only concern is just the dead cat bounce
right where we just see teams just like for no
reason whatsoever, because the teams are all bad that when
their coaches get fired. So from a schematic, you're looking
at the players on the field. Yeah, it makes all
the sense in the world. But it is seven points
and is on the road, so that's just a big
number to lay. Again, if Callahan was still the coach,
(05:36):
I would I would feel better about Mike Brabel actually
going down them and covering the larger spreads. So I
think I'm just gonna probably shy away from it just
because of the dead cat bounce. But I think everything
that you pointed out is accurate.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Look, the Tuesday move has been a long standing gambling
tradition to watch because the limits, the first limit move
goes to Tuesday. They open it up, not as big
as they get when they get to Friday, but you
have the opening number, and then Tuesday you get the
limits open up. After Monday Night football, the game was six,
it's now seven and a half. At certain books, you're
seeing where the pro money is coming in. They also
(06:08):
might be driving this thing as high as possible and
taking the Titans. Okay, this is one hundred percent of
head fake potential. But I think if you can get
six and a half or seven on the Patriots, now
get in early, I think you're going to be okay
at the end of the day. I just don't think
cam Ward's going to be able to do much here
against this Patriots defense in the pass rush. We saw
it last week against the Saints and what they did
(06:29):
to another young quarterback, not being able to understand where
the reds are coming from, and then the weapons just
aren't there. They just aren't there for the Titans here,
and who's going to be there if you're a Titan fan,
are you showing up to that game? Like? Are you
excited to sit in the stands and go and watch
an interim head coach and a first year quarterback up
against the guy that was on your sidelines two years ago,
(06:51):
the guy that was the number one seed at one
point in time in the AFC. With the Titans roll
back in with a first place football team and a
young quarterback, bad vibes, bad vibes in that building all
the way around for you play number two of this week,
what do you like?
Speaker 2 (07:06):
I am going to the totals here with the Buccaneers
playing the Detroit Lions. I want the over in this game.
I don't care how high it is, fifty two and
a half, fifty three and a half. I just want
the over. We see this all the time with the
Lions games. It's one of the most profitable bets that
you can make is betting the over when the Lions
are playing at home. And I know that, as we'll
get into is I know you like the Buccaneers as
I do as well, just because you just bet on
(07:28):
Baker Mayfield when he's in a road underdog every single time.
But my hesitance with it is the trends on the
other side, where the Lions are one of the best
teams against the spread, especially after they lose, Like Dan
Campbell knows exactly what to do with his guys. So
I think that you just see both teams to kind
of perform above expectation. Lions offense cooks Baker Mayfield does
it with it doesn't seem like it matters who his
(07:49):
receivers are Tess Johnson, Sterling Shepherd. He's going to get
it done, Kada. And as bad as the receivers are
injury wise for the Buccaneers, it's equally as bad for
the Lions and their secondary, Like who do they have left?
Bryan Branch just got suspended, right, so they're running out
of bodies to cover. So even though it's kind of
like the JV team is out for the Buccaneers at receiver.
And there's a chance also that Mike Evans comes back,
(08:10):
so again getting some potential early line die because if
he plays, that's a massive swing in terms of will
this game go over the total? I think ultimately will
I don't think that I'm going to be sweating the
fifteen and a half, but I want to get on
it right now, because that's just the approach I look
at with these Lions games at home.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
I love that play, but I also like the dog
as well. And I think, you wait, let the public
bet the Lions. Let this thing climb, and I think
you're gonna get six, You could even get six and
a half. You money even get seven by the time
we get to kick off here, because everyone's going to
be on the trends that you're talking about. In terms
of the Lions off of a loss at home, they
have been over the last three seasons. They've been the
(08:46):
most profitable team to bet on against the number in
the NFL, and again, like you said, against the spread
after they lose equally so. But this is Baker and
like you mentioned Branch being out, there's no one left
in that secondary for the Lions. Like again, I don't
care who's out there, there are, they're gonna be professional
wide receivers running around for Baker Mayfield. And Baker is
(09:07):
playing at an MVP level at the moment. I can't
bet against him. The first thing I do is I
look and see where are the Bucks. I have a
big bet on the Bucks to win the division. They're
off to a five and one start. I was at
a bar here in Vegas watching the game last week
for the Bucks and that run that Baker Mayfield had
on third and thirteen to pick up the first down.
(09:28):
The entire bar was on its feet, the entire place.
Whether you bet on him or not, everybody was like,
this guy is on a mission, like he is possessed.
Week prior to go to Seattle. They hang thirty eight
points on that Seattle defense. They come back home against
the forty nine Ers, they beat the Niners. Things are
right right now in Tampa. Give me the points six,
six and a half. I like the Bucks, but I
(09:49):
like you're over two in this game. So two different
levels you can approach. Bet number three for you, where
are you going?
Speaker 2 (09:55):
I Am going to Denver. I'm going to lay the
points with the Denver Broncos against the New York Giants.
One of the trends I've been on this year is
betting against the rookie quarterbacks when they're playing on the road,
and that has been profitable. It's been three to zero
again if you count the neutral start for Dylan Gabriel
against betting against cam Ward again. This was the one
spot where actually didn't work out because the Denver Broncos
(10:16):
just vomited all of themselves in Week one and the
Times ended up covering that spread. But besides that, it's
been very profitable. And the same thing with even Jackson Dark.
I mean, the guy looks completely different when he's playing
at home against more of a depleted defense versus playing
on the road.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Again.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
He lost outright to the Saints on the road as
an underdog, and now going to Denver, one of the
toughest places to play for a rookie quarterback. There is
no laie neighbors. He's not coming back. Denver showed last
week that they're not going to give up exposive plays,
so I don't think that Camp Scattabu is gonna nearly
have as much success rushing against the Denver Broncos. So
even though the Giants are coming off extra rest playing
on Thursday, Denver is coming off a game in London,
(10:52):
I still like laying the Broncos. I mean, Sean Payton
is gonna be riding his guys all week, especially on
the offensive side of the ball, where they were terrible
on off it. They couldn't do anythink Bonicks is making mistakes.
It couldn't run run the football effectively. What can you
do against the New York Giants is run the football,
and that puts the play action back into the offense
makes things a little bit easier for Bonis. So I
think Denver gets takes air business here at home. They
(11:13):
usually beat up on good teams. Think Sean Payt's could
write the ship here and take care of business.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
One thing that I really like about the Broncos team
this week, in particular, is the love of Jackson Dart
in cam Skataboo that the public currently has. So when
you see teams that are getting a ton of hype,
who stink because the Giants stink, This is a great
time to fade them, because I think you might get
(11:38):
six and a half. This number opened up at eight,
it's down to seven. It might get to six and
a half. It might keep on dropping. Everyone's going to
be on the Giants. This is going to be Oh
it's cam Skataboo. Look what this guy is doing. Three
rushing touchdowns. Jackson Dart's going to be able to move
the football on the ground. No, he's not. I don't
believe Sean Payton's at home, going to allow this offense
to do anything. And without Molik neighbors, they don't have
(12:01):
many weapons. Okay. And last week again he's got two
wins at home and then a loss to the Saints
on the road. Okay, the Broncos were a much better
football team and a much more difficult place to play
at Mile High than it is to play in New Orleans. Yes,
I will bet this. I will be on your side.
I'm just waiting. I want six and a half if
I can get a better number. And if it goes
(12:23):
below seven, I want six and a half. And it's
coming down. It's seven here in Vegas. It might get
there because the public is in love.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, I'm seeing right, I see right now in the
betting pros Live odds that Novig has as miney six
and a half so far to see it kind of
go down. So to your point, this is one to
wait on because especially the public money. They love Jackson Dowry,
they love Campskatavo.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
You can have it all you want, Okay, you can
have the craziness all you want. I love going against
the narrative that, oh my gosh, they found their next boy. Wonder.
Sure he's winning home games. Guys, he's got two wins,
both at home. Enjoy it. And you're on the road
against Denver. Yeah, it's gonna be a reality check time
for the New York Giants. From my final, I'm going
to Monday night and I got Seattle at home against
(13:09):
Look that there are I guess it's it's one night. Yeah,
this is a yeah against Houston. I don't like Houston's
offense at all, and it's three and a half down
to three at certain places, it's been a two and
a half point open here for the Sales Seahawks. I
like what I saw last week. I think this offense
is humming at the moment. I know the Texans defense
(13:30):
is really really good, but going in primetime, things are
unraveling in a lot of ways in the tech with
the Texans. I don't like Houston. They're coming off of
a bye. I'll give you that. I know that that's
one little scary factor here. But give me the Seahawks
minus three and Sam Darnold at home in primetime. I
think they get the job done. I want this number
before it client crosses three. Three and a half is possible.
(13:52):
Four could be possible. But time we get the kickoff,
give me the two and a half or the three.
On the Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Agreed on the two and a half or three. I
think that if it's three and a half, that's probably
where I get a little bit more gun shy, just
because I don't think there's gonna be a lot of
scoring in this game. I think that both these teams
identify as hey, we're very very strong defensively, they're both
kind of top heavy when it comes to their receivers.
You have a Nico Collins is the number one, Jason
is the number one, and then after that it's kind
of just like depth pieces. You're expecting Houston to have
(14:19):
some type of answer offensively coming out of their bye week,
you know, in the lab doing something. I think they're
going to try to run the ball, because if they
were just dropping back to throw, they're gonna be screwed.
We saw last week's Seattle on the road against the Jaguars.
They pressure Trevor Lawrence on fifty percent of his dropbacks
fifty So I was like, so every other time he
went back to throw, Withers pressure in his face, and
(14:39):
we know the text offens. The line has been terrible,
specifically past blocking this year, so if they're trying to
run the football again, keep it a closer game. We
know the Texans like to play a lot of close games,
except when they're facing the Ravens backups essentially, so I
think that this game is tight. But I agree I
like the Seahawks with the home team and have anything.
I kind of like the under two. I just don't
(15:00):
think this is an explosive, high flying game, especially with
the ten o'clock window. I'm not watching this game live.
I'm gonna be rewatching this game the next morning, and
I don't think I'm going to be missing a scoring bonanza.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Do you think the NFL is setting us up to
kill Thursday with a number of Monday night games we're
having with two of them. Do you think that they're
kind of testing the waters to see if the games
on Monday night have higher ratings that they might say, okay,
Thursday night football. People have seen the football be crap
for so long that they might move it.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
Yeah, that's an interesting thought. I know I was talking
to my wife about just how you know, there's London games,
there's Thursday games, there's two Monday games, and to me
sometimes it feels like it's kind of like diluting how
great they used to be, Like, oh, Monday football and
it's really special occasion, but well now there's three games
on Monday, so it's not really as special. But at
the same time, to your point, you know, it's all
about the ratings and if you put football on at
(15:52):
six o'clock in the morning, someone's gonna watch. It doesn't
matter just because how popular this sport is. So I
think that the Rings are always going to do well.
But when you're comparing them side by side, yeah, I
think that the NFL may find, well, these Monday games
are doing much better. People are staying up to watch
them at ten o'clock versus watching them at eight fifteen
on a Thursday night kickoff. So yeah, I think it's
a really interesting point to bring out.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
I like the two Mondays way better than Thursdays because
the football is better. Personally, if you're going to go
to an EF you're gonna go do an eighteen game schedule.
I think if that's the ultimate goals to have eighteen
games here for the NFL, I think you have to
figure out, well, when does it break, like, when are
we asking too much of the human body to go
and play this many games? And I think one thing
that might be taking a look at it is saying, Okay,
(16:34):
we're going to play two Monday night games and not
have the Thursday. But the Amazon contract is quite large,
so you know, that's a lot of money for the NFL,
and that's what they like. They like a whole lot
of money. Before we get to the Survivor picks, guys,
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(16:56):
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and all. Like Pat and I talk about every week,
(17:16):
everyone Survivor path is going to be different. So we're
going to give you a couple of different thoughts as
to who can win, depending if you have that team
available or not. But in Survivor, regardless off somebody, if
you have them are not available, where does your eye go?
Eric ericson for a Survivor pick this week?
Speaker 2 (17:32):
So I talked about the Broncos against the spread. I
still like them here as well against the Giants at home.
I think that they're Survivor pick. Obviously. The chalkiest one
is probably the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Just playing at home. Like if you have probably it is.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
That one's pretty easy. It doesn't really require much analysis.
They're going to win. I mean, maybe they don't cover
the now rising like eleven to twelve point spread, but
twelve and a half, yeah, they're they're probably gonna win.
They're playing at home against Ginosmith. So again, the Raiders
won't last week because they're playing the Titans like that,
that's really why. And so I guess my other one
that's maybe a little bit more off the board is
(18:05):
I actually like the Bears at home against the Saints. Again,
Bears are playing on a short week, but yep, I
Spencer Ratler's won one game in his NFL career, and
it was at home against the rookie quarterback. So even
though the Bears are playing a short week, I like
them playing at home at Soldier Field. Caleb Williams is
much better against the number and straight up when he
plays at home. Again, emotional win on Monday night. Maybe
(18:28):
that kind of is the one hesitance. But again, if
you're out of great options, I still like the Bears.
Skin you're betting against the New Orleans Saints who haven't
won a lot of games, Spencer Rattlers, So I think
that's probably where i'd go if I don't have options
like the Chiefs or the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Yeah, I think the easy too on the board, Denver
and Kansas City. As to how you're going to go,
I was on the Colts last week, sort of like
an off the beaten path pick, and I think the
Patriots equally are off the beaten path, you know. Conversation.
Do the Patriots go to Titans to Tennessee and lose?
I'd find it really to see Mike Vrabel's team against
an awful an awful Titans team we just fired their
(19:04):
head coach. Losing. Do they cover the seven? That's debatable.
I just can't see the Patriots losing the game outright
going to the Titans. Drake May would have to play
really poorly or get hurt, or something catastrophic would have
to happen in order for the Patriots to lose this game.
The Titans were handed a victory by the Cardinals. They
should have zero wins. They have one because of the
(19:26):
football gods and dropping ball to at the goal line
and everything else that happened in that football game the
flukiest of fluky things. So I think if you're looking
for that off the beaten path pick, I think the
Patriots over the Titans would be a popular way, But
that would only be if you didn't have Denver, didn't
have Kansas City available to be used. If you do,
(19:47):
I think your Denver pick. I think the pick of
the week should be the Denver Broncos against the Giants.
I love fading Road rookie quarterbacks on this, and I
think Sean Payton is a little bit upset with the
ways to bone Nicks needs to get going, like Bonnicks
needs to start picking it up a little bit for Denver.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
Yeah, agreed, And again I'm thinking bit more about these
Patriots batter because I just think it's really fascinating with
very able going back down to Tennessee. And I think
that in itself kind of counteracts that the dead cat bounce.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
Where I agree, in most situations, it's.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Not this type of setup where it is a head
coach that I don't care who the head coach is.
I don't care if it's Mike McCoy, I don't care
if it was Callahan, Like I want to kill this team,
like it doesn't matter. So I think I'm kind of
changing my tune a little bit there with the Patrio's
see where the number settles. But from a survivor standpoint, yeah,
I think that the Patriots, even if they don't cover,
I think that they are going to win this game.
(20:37):
And to your point, it would take some type of
wackiness where the Tennessee Titans are getting a bunch of
turnovers and things are kind of going off script where
the Patriots don't end up winning this game. But again,
that can happen in any football game. It's it's a
weirdly shaped ball, weird things can happen. But I think
the confidence play would definitely be on the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Boute is playing at a really high level. We've seen
digs have monster games during this stretch. For the Patriots,
I think they get the running game going Drake May.
It's remarkable. I mean, you're a Patriot fan. Watching a
Patriot quarterback be a competent passer and runner of the football.
We've never seen it before. We've seen one of the
other We've seen certain quarterbacks coming who could run. We've
(21:16):
seen Brady for twenty years stand back there and not move.
Now we've got a guy who can throw the deep
ball and can run, and he's a weapon with the legs.
So I just think it's a lot to ask of
this Titans team after going up and I watched closely
in the Raider game and I was like, give me
a break. This team is awful, Like they are just
absolutely horrible. And the only way the Patriots lose this
game is that they beat themselves. And I find it
(21:36):
really hard that this team won't be looking. And I
don't think they can overlook the Titans given who their
coach is, Like Rabel hates the Titans like he hates
the Titans, so I think he's gonna be This is
gonna be a pretty electric week of practice for the Patriots,
and I wouldn't be surprised if Rabel puts on pads
himself and gets out there and starts smacking around some people,
(21:59):
given how far fired up he's going to be to
go back to Nashville to play to play the Titans. Guys,
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Speaker 1 (23:10):
Let's talk about plays you would fire on right now?
Is there a bet you would want to take before
the line moves Browns.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
That's definitely the one I want to say, just because
I think that the vibes of Miami aren't going to
improve throughout the weekend. I think bet people are going
to convince themselves that, yeah, this team is going in
the wrong direction. And I agree. This is just a
bad spot for them on the road. They don't play
well on the road. Usually it's December where they run
into issues. But I think early on this season, meaning
this team went up to Indianapolis in Week one and
(23:38):
just got curve stopped in Week one and in a dome.
Now you're going outdoors against Cleveland. That defense is going
to be pinning its ears to try to rattle to it.
And I know that you were concerned about the Dylan
Gabriel turnovers to it is going to turn them all
over a ton in this game. So I think this
is Miami's This is going to be a bad game
for the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
For me, I want the over for Dallas in Washington.
It's fifty four and a half at the moment right now,
I think that number is going to climb. I really
don't know how high that number is going to go.
But if you're betting an under on a Cowboys game,
good luck. I don't know how you do that at
the moment. In particular at home, Jane Daniels and the
Commanders I think are going to be able to throw
the ball and they may get some of their wide
receivers back we'll see what the injury situation looks like
(24:21):
for the Commanders. But if they score less than twenty
four points against that defense, I'm going to be stunned.
Dallas can't stop anybody, and I think on the flip side,
the Cowboys offense just moves the football. George Pickens is
playing at an incredible level at the moment. They can
run the ball on Washington. We saw what the what
the Brent, what the Bears did last night to that defense.
Give me the over fifty four and a half. Bet
(24:43):
it before it moves, because I think that thing might
close at fifty six.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Yeah, it's only going to go up. I also kind
of like the Dallas team total as well. It's kind
of like a value a way to attack it because
they're underdogs, but they're also at home, so like you,
I feel like you're getting a kind of a value
a little bit on their specific number, but agree they're
there's gonna be points.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Huge opportunity for the Cowboys. They really, I mean they
need a win, like they need a win here and
instincts because like if you're a Cowboy fan, if they
had won that game against the Panthers, which most pros
were hammering the Panthers. But if they'd won that game,
they'd be three to two in one and they'd be
half a game behind the Eagles, who are four and two.
(25:22):
Do the Eagles lose this week, they can lose again.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
See that's the thing with the Eagles. One of their
trends is they don't perform well after a losses like
they they like stack like bad game after bad games,
so complete opposite of the lines too, like always rebound.
The Eagles continue to expire and.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
They're playing the Vikings, who literally have to win this game,
like the Vikings season not completely hinging, but like they
need this game, like this is a big game for
the Vikings to play, coming off of a bye for
last week, they have the Eagles coming to their place.
They're two and a half point dogs at home to
the Eagles. Oh my Goodwe if.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
The Eagles are like Mitchell doesn't play and like Carter
miss it, like, I think the Vikings will win because
the question mark is we still don't know who's starting
a quarterback for the Vikings, like Wentz or McCarthy, And
again I don't think either options Like in a Super.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Powl, it's not going to be McCarthy though, like you,
this is the bye This isn't this why you help
you hold McCarthy out and he plays him in this game?
Do you not like this is when he comes back? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (26:24):
So yeah, especially, I mean, I think it's gonna come
down to just Flores just making magic with his defense
against the Philadelphia Eagles offense. That's that's been struggling. You know,
Barkley hasn't played nearly as well as he did last year.
The offensive line has a bunch of issues. They're at
home off a bye week. Yeah, I mean, if you
just look at a lot of these circumstantial factors, you're like,
why am I not betting on the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Look, it's two and a half again. The reason why
it didn't make my card yet is because of the
quarterback situation. I want to know who's playing quarterback. But
if it's JJ McCarthy, look the numbers coming down. It's
two and a half right now. But you have a
home dog in the NFL. That's been a very profitable
thing for years, but even more so this year. Or
home dogs in the NFL, and the Eagles internally are
a mess, Like they are a mess internally at the moment.
(27:06):
Maybe they go to Minnesota and write the ship, but
that dome is not an easy place to play off
of a buye for the Vikings. If it's McCarthy, I
like the Vikings to win that football game, coming up
here and getting a w and keep the misery in Philadelphia.
Rolling guys, you want to track all your your bets
in one place. You can do so with the Betting
Pros Pick Tracker. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to
(27:28):
tally which picks hits and which miss. Plus, it gives
you a live look at what the public is doing,
so you can use real time tracking to determine which
place to make and which place to fade. Track your
picks today with the Betting Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com,
slash tracking, or on the Betting Pros app on the
way out, my friend, any final thoughts for Week seven?
Speaker 2 (27:49):
No, no, no, no final thoughts again, beware that the
dead cat bounce. But I think that the vraibel I
want to destroy the Titans is going to be a
the thing that probably matters the most we reflect on
that final score of that game.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
I'm really curious to see if the Panthers can beat
the Jets. See if that can happen. The Jets are
without I don't know. I don't know that offense can
get any worse, But I just want to see what's
going to happen in that game. Can the Panthers, who
are just a horrible team on the road, they suck
on the road, can they go to the to the meadowlands,
(28:26):
to MetLife and beat the Jets. Because if Aaron Glenn
loses at home to the Panthers, I know he's a
first year head coach, but that's zero and seven and
that's the bottom of the bottom. And I don't know
what you do if you're the Jets, because you've hired
the wrong guy. Like, if you can't beat the Panthers
at home, see you later. Like, I don't know, I
don't know how in the world you justify keeping Aaron
(28:47):
Glenn in that position if you can't beat the Panthers
at home, even with justin Fields. Because they tried to
play the craziest offensive game plan in the history of
the NFL last week. It almost worked, but it didn't.
They covered you don't play the that's great baron Glenn's
covering No way, ma'am. Guys, remember every week we're here
every Tuesday. Pat Fistmore's be back next week. He's Andrew Erkson.
(29:08):
I am Matt Parolt. To thank you for watching, We're
back next week for Week eight of the NFL Early
Betts to the Betting Pros.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
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