May 22, 2025 • 16 mins
Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran has been a key voice in the Trump administration’s efforts to re-shape US economic policy, from near universal tariffs to a tax bill still in progress.
On today’s Big Take DC podcast, Miran sits down with host Saleha Mohsin to talk about market volatility, the deficit and currency policy.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news for anyone listening. That
paper was written before my consideration for this role.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Stephen Myron went viral in the wonky world of economic policy.
It's all because of a forty one page economic paper
from November that offered some pretty jarring strategies for trade
policy and currency intervention, including what everyone refers to as
the marl Lago Accord. It made huge waves, and to
Myron's dismay, he can't quite shake it.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
It's not advocacy, and nobody should construe it that way.
It's just it's been a zombie that I just haven't
been able to kill.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
There's more going on for this economist. Since the Senate
confirmed him in March as Chairman of the White House
Council of Economic Advisors, Myron has been part of the
administration's efforts to reshape US economic policy, from near universal
tariffs that triggered a massive upheaval in markets to tax
policy still in progress. He's also focused on sharing Trump's
(01:02):
pro growth message and touting the president's transparency.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Almost every single day, the president hosts a press conference
straight from the Oval, and he tells you exactly what
he's thinking exactly what he wants to accomplish, exactly what
he's going to do, and one by one he does
what he says he's going to do, and he's very
transparent about that.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
And as news of fresh trade deals with the US
come through, triggering angst across currency markets, we had some
questions for the chairman himself. I'm Saliah Mousson and this
is the Big Take DC from Bloomberg News. Today. On
the show, I sit down with key White House economists
Stephen Myron to take a deeper look at the volatility
(01:41):
and uncertainty hitting global markets, and I ask him what
every investor is wondering, what's the future of the US dollar?
Chair Stephen Myron, so great to have you here, Thanks
for having me.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
It's great to see you again.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
The world's economic landscape has shifted rapidly since you were
confirmed for your job in March. We've had the shock
of the April second tariffs, the change after the ninety
day pause, and right as the Sell America trade was
starting to look stale, we saw that Moody's cut the
(02:21):
US's pristine credit rating. And I'm curious, what do you
make of all this turmoil.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
It shouldn't be surprising there would be some volatility in
the wake of the president's historic actions. You know, the
move in teriff rates that we've seen has been substantial.
Tariff rates have been used like that by a president
to defend America in many decades. However, that volatility, as
we've seen, doesn't last forever, right it peters out. Policy
has limited effects on the long term. With that, and
the volatility has come around. With respect to Moody's, what
(02:49):
I would say is it's somewhat backward looking. You know,
the fiscal scenario of America really deteriorated a bit during
the Biden administration. One of the issues with both Moody's
as well as well as the CBO scoring. The Congressional
Budget Office puts a score in the legislation that's in
front of Congress. They tend to focus on the tax
legislation in a very narrow sense, and they tend to
(03:11):
miss a number of things that are going on in
the background, which we'll serve to reduce deficits.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
The shift that you're talking about is huge. We're seeing
near universal tariffs for the first time in many, many
decades coming from the US we're seeing an addition to
the deficit from the tax bill, at least in the
short term, until the growth kicks in at a time
when our deficits are expected to be the largest ever. Sure,
(03:39):
it's backward looking, but the outlook ahead is cumulative effect.
You're also talking about doge, but we've seen cuts and
savings in billions, not trillions, in such a small timeframe,
for so many changes to happen, it sounds like a
really big gamble on the shifts that President Trump is
(03:59):
imposed on the economic landscape. How do you deal with
You have such confidence when you're sharing the figures. Are
you worried at all that one little thing shifting? A
black swan event, a pandemic. No one saw that coming,
something could break.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
So look, of course we're concerned about deficits. And this
underlines why it's so unfortunate that we inherited such a
bad fiscal hand from the previous administration, and why previous
administration's policy was so misguided. You want to run deficits
when you're in the middle of a significant emergency. These
are things like a war, right or when you're in
a recession that's so deep that Monterey policy alone can't
(04:39):
handle it, and you want to engage in material degrees
of fiscal support to the economy. This was something like
COVID like the depth of the pandemic with the Cares Act,
when Monterey policy alone wasn't enough to get the economy
through a problems.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Some of the growth forecasts that you're talking about their predictions.
Of course, you don't know what's going to come, but
we're seeing retailers who visited the White House talking about
empty shelves at their stores because of supply chain constraints
depending on what tariffs kick in. We're talking about in
consumers maybe seeing price increases. And Trump has acknowledged that
(05:14):
there's going to be short term pain for long term gain.
That short term pain is going to come at a
time when we are teetering at the edge of deficits
that maybe the US can't handle. We haven't found out
what that threshold is. So talk to me a little
bit about the short term pain. Are you prepared for
(05:36):
a recession, because that's what it sounds like Trump is
talking about.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
I don't expect the deficit to be nearly as bad
as some of these numbers that are being tossed GDP growth.
Do you think we're going to say that short term?
As I said, it's a mistake. It's a mistake to
focus exclusively on something like a CBO score and ignore
all the other things that are going on, like tariff revenues.
I mean, I think that's just bonkers, and yet that's
what people seem to want to do. But I think
it's a mistake. And sometimes, you know, people people live
in narratives, and they focus in a narrative and then
(06:02):
eventually the market realizes it's wrong, and that'll happen in
this case too, And it similarly won't be surprising if
there's volatility in other economic data as well. For instance,
we're in the middle of more than twenty serious trade
negotiations with our partners. There's one hundred others that have
expressed interest in talking. Right These are very material and
we will get resolution on these within coming months, and
(06:23):
we will get resolution on the tax bill, hopefully very soon.
And while we're waiting on resolution, you know, it is
not surprising if a company delays an investment or delays
hiring or whatever, you know, delays some economic activity from
one month to another, from one quarter to another. But
waiting for the resolution dealing with the uncertainty that doesn't
(06:44):
cause a recession, that just pushes activity from one time
period to another.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Talk to me a little bit more about the short
term volatility. The President has signaled, essentially given almost forward
guidance that there could be a couple of quarters of
pain as we work on the long term picture. That
is sort of the essence of any kind of revolution
in economic landscapes. What are you expecting? What's the worst
(07:09):
that could happen? Do you have any estimates of where
you expect the fourth quarter of this year to end?
Speaker 1 (07:14):
So I don't have a precise number, in part because
the policy is still fluid and I can't prejudge the
outcome of those policies, right, and so you know, there
can be differences based on the ability of other countries
to make the concessions they need to keep the teriff
rates where they are or even lower, you know, and
prevent the April second tariffs from snapping back. It really
(07:35):
would be wrong for me to prejudge their outcome and
give a precise number.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Do you have any sense of when we would expect
to see a smaller trade deficit? Since that is the
ultimate goal here.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
Yeah, So first you have to continue making the trade deals,
and I am confident that we will be able to
finish off a number more in coming weeks. And as
we succeed in creating a fairer trade environment in which
other countries treat us the way we treat them, that
will succeed in bringing trade deficits down because we will
be able to export so much more. And that's a
world of more trade. That's a world of more balanced trade.
(08:07):
It's a world of fair trade, and it's still a
world of prosperity for America and prosperity for everyone, for
all countries.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Before we shift gears here, Steve, you're an economist, your
spokesman for the administration's economic agenda. If things get a
little hairy later this year, early next year, as the
trade deals are being hammered out, as tariffs kind of
hit companies, as the world adjusts, what is your message
going to be to investors, to everyday consumers when they're
(08:36):
worried is this a blip or is this a deeper
economic slowdown?
Speaker 1 (08:41):
So, look, I think it's really important to have some
context here. And at the end of the day, imports,
our fourteen percent of the economy. Right, there are limits
to how much fourteen percent of the economy can move
the whole. And you have to look at what we're
doing on the other stuff as well. If you look
at the tax policy, if you look at deregulation, if
you look at energy abundance, these affect eighty six percent
(09:02):
of the economy. Right, they affect everything, and so there
are really just profound limits on the ability of fourteen
percent of the economy to matter so much that it
can create mark.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
It's reacted strongly based on what could happen to this
fourteen percent of the economy.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Well, as I said, I think that financial markets were
a little surprised at the scope of the president's policies.
And also financial markets are maybe a little bit more
dependent on the international environment than the economy is right,
they're not. You know, financial markets in the economy are related,
but they're not exactly the same thing.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
It's a very big shift to do for fourteen percent
of economy based on that number.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Yeah, but I mean stocks have recovered right, most of
their losses. So what I would say is is this
is an extremely pro growth administration. We are focused on
one hundred percent on getting the tax bill over the line,
on creating an investment boom in America, cutting red tape,
which I think is profoundly powerful and really underappreciated by economists.
Economists dramatically underappreciate the importance regulation because it's not quantitative,
(10:01):
and it's difficult to study. The regulations you're subject to
vary based on what line of work you're in, how
big your firm is, how old your firm is, what
your aisstictions you operate in. All of this stuff is qualitative,
and we've made enormous progress already, but it still takes time.
We're a nation of laws. It takes time to change
the rules. It takes time to write regulations, their question periods,
their common periods. This is a process, and so we
(10:24):
think that over the next few years we can get there.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
After the break, I ask CEA chair Stephen Myron about
the Trump administration's plans for currency policy and the possibility
of a Mara Lago accord. There's a lot of talk
(10:51):
about currencies these days. Markets are just it seems insatiable,
there appetite for any kind of detail on this. Oddly,
what is the connection between the trade deals that are
being worked out right now, you said there's twenty currently
being worked out.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
And currency policy, there is none there, you know, there
there is none.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
So when we hear from the Japanese finance minister that
I'm going to bring up currencies when I speak with Besant,
that's the other side bringing you to the.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Table, not the US Secretary. Bessant is the one who
you know, has the policy authority over over the dollar,
and he's been He's been pretty clear in saying that,
you know, the United States continues to continues to have
the same dollar policies it's had for decades, right, the
United States continues to have the strong dollar policy. The
United States will you know, Will Will Will Will continue
(11:43):
with the policies that we've had for a really long time.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
He has been very clear. The nature of currency accords
is that they seem to happen in secret, right, the
Plaza accord, the Liubra accord, they happened when no one
realized that they were being planned. And I think that
is something that's on Trader's minds quite a bit about
what could be happening behind the scenes that we don't know.
But I'm wondering what you're thinking, is that we've heard
from Trump for a long time that he wants a
(12:07):
weaker dollar. I mean, this goes back to the nineteen eighties.
We have people like you and Lutnik and especially Scott Besten,
the Treasure Secretary, saying over and over again that the
US does have a strong dollar policy. We want investments
in the US that drives up the dollar. But the
markets don't seem to believe it. Do you have any
sense as to why.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
I think folks in markets often, you know, they get
these little obsessions and it takes ten thousand reiterations at
the same point to finally get them to believe us
when when we say something. And I think you saw
something similar with this, like a decade ago. I remember
the FED being extremely clear that it was never going
to do negative interest rates, and you know, like every
(12:48):
day they'd come in and get that question, and every day,
you know, they had to say, that's ridiculous, We're never
going to do that. And I remember at the time,
you know, like being really annoyed. Why am I seeing
this red headline on my Bloomberg every day that you know,
FED speaker X says will never do negative interest rates?
And now I have some sympathy because now we have
to do the same thing. Almost every single day. The
president hosts a press conference straight from the Oval, where
(13:11):
he's got lots of reporters directly there, asks him questions,
and he answers those questions, and he tells you exactly
what's on his mind, and he tells you exactly what
he's thinking, exactly what he wants to accomplish, exactly what
he's going to do, and one by one he does
what he says he's going to do.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
It's interesting that there's so much talk about a currency
accord when actually in the nineteen eighties, the last time
we had a real one, central bankers and finance ministers
had a lot more sway in currency markets. Currency markets
were much smaller. Now we have something like eight trillion
dollars changing hands. Even if you wanted to do an accord,
(13:46):
is it even possible because of the some of the
constraints for central bankers and finance.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Ministers in general. I tend to think that policymakers can
be creative when they need to. But like you know, again,
like there's no there's nothing here, right, there's you know,
we're not secretly at work on any of this stuff.
There's nothing there.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
There's no work going on right now on a marlogo
accord or any kind of currency accord.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
This look, you know, Secretary has been has been clear.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
It's a little confusing as to what the dollar policy is.
I know has said several times that the US is
strong dollar policy is intact. But you have said, and
the President has said, and Vesson has signaled that there
are benefits to a week dollar, and that came from
Trump's first term. His first treasure Secretary, Stephen Mnushin also
(14:36):
said some of the same things. Do you think that
a week dollar is okay for America, that it's okay
for the exchange rate to be a little bit lower.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
This is really the type of thing that you should
address the Treasury Secretary and not to me. And you
know what I could do is repeat his words that
you know, a strong dollar is good for America. And
that's not just merely a statement about levels. It's a
statement about the strength of the dollar system and dollar
dominance and the fact that that gives us many other
benefits that come with that.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
It looks like we're seeing finance ministers wanting to talk
to Bassant the right person to talk to you about
currency policy. They want to talk to him about currencies.
We're seeing in Asia that some of the you know,
the South Korean Wan, the Taiwan dollar, they are increasing.
It looks as if economic authorities in those countries are
letting their currencies appreciate, whereas before they targeted them, weaken them,
(15:30):
letting them appreciate against the dollar to kind of pave
the way for a trade deal. So is it kind
of a case of Trump wants a weeker dollar but
he doesn't really have to ask for it.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Now, Look, you know again, I can just say the
same thing, which is that, you know, I think that
we've all been very straightforward in what we say about
this policy, and nothing has changed. There's been no change
in currency policy.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
All right, Well, thanks so much for joining the show.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Steven, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
This is the Big Take DC from Bloomberg News. I'm Salaiavosen.
This episode was produced by Rachel Lewis Chrisky. It was
fact checked by Julia Press and mixed and sound designed
by Alex Sugia. Special thanks to Brendan Palmer, Nicholas Bach,
Susie McCrory and Wendell Thorman. If you like this episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take DC
(16:23):
wherever you listen to podcasts. That helps people find the
show
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news for anyone listening. That
paper was written before my consideration for this role.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Stephen Myron went viral in the wonky world of economic policy.
It's all because of a forty one page economic paper
from November that offered some pretty jarring strategies for trade
policy and currency intervention, including what everyone refers to as
the marl Lago Accord. It made huge waves, and to
Myron's dismay, he can't quite shake it.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
It's not advocacy, and nobody should construe it that way.
It's just it's been a zombie that I just haven't
been able to kill.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
There's more going on for this economist. Since the Senate
confirmed him in March as Chairman of the White House
Council of Economic Advisors, Myron has been part of the
administration's efforts to reshape US economic policy, from near universal
tariffs that triggered a massive upheaval in markets to tax
policy still in progress. He's also focused on sharing Trump's
(01:02):
pro growth message and touting the president's transparency.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Almost every single day, the president hosts a press conference
straight from the Oval, and he tells you exactly what
he's thinking exactly what he wants to accomplish, exactly what
he's going to do, and one by one he does
what he says he's going to do, and he's very
transparent about that.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
And as news of fresh trade deals with the US
come through, triggering angst across currency markets, we had some
questions for the chairman himself. I'm Saliah Mousson and this
is the Big Take DC from Bloomberg News. Today. On
the show, I sit down with key White House economists
Stephen Myron to take a deeper look at the volatility
(01:41):
and uncertainty hitting global markets, and I ask him what
every investor is wondering, what's the future of the US dollar?
Chair Stephen Myron, so great to have you here, Thanks
for having me.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
It's great to see you again.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
The world's economic landscape has shifted rapidly since you were
confirmed for your job in March. We've had the shock
of the April second tariffs, the change after the ninety
day pause, and right as the Sell America trade was
starting to look stale, we saw that Moody's cut the
(02:21):
US's pristine credit rating. And I'm curious, what do you
make of all this turmoil.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
It shouldn't be surprising there would be some volatility in
the wake of the president's historic actions. You know, the
move in teriff rates that we've seen has been substantial.
Tariff rates have been used like that by a president
to defend America in many decades. However, that volatility, as
we've seen, doesn't last forever, right it peters out. Policy
has limited effects on the long term. With that, and
the volatility has come around. With respect to Moody's, what
(02:49):
I would say is it's somewhat backward looking. You know,
the fiscal scenario of America really deteriorated a bit during
the Biden administration. One of the issues with both Moody's
as well as well as the CBO scoring. The Congressional
Budget Office puts a score in the legislation that's in
front of Congress. They tend to focus on the tax
legislation in a very narrow sense, and they tend to
(03:11):
miss a number of things that are going on in
the background, which we'll serve to reduce deficits.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
The shift that you're talking about is huge. We're seeing
near universal tariffs for the first time in many, many
decades coming from the US we're seeing an addition to
the deficit from the tax bill, at least in the
short term, until the growth kicks in at a time
when our deficits are expected to be the largest ever. Sure,
(03:39):
it's backward looking, but the outlook ahead is cumulative effect.
You're also talking about doge, but we've seen cuts and
savings in billions, not trillions, in such a small timeframe,
for so many changes to happen, it sounds like a
really big gamble on the shifts that President Trump is
(03:59):
imposed on the economic landscape. How do you deal with
You have such confidence when you're sharing the figures. Are
you worried at all that one little thing shifting? A
black swan event, a pandemic. No one saw that coming,
something could break.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
So look, of course we're concerned about deficits. And this
underlines why it's so unfortunate that we inherited such a
bad fiscal hand from the previous administration, and why previous
administration's policy was so misguided. You want to run deficits
when you're in the middle of a significant emergency. These
are things like a war, right or when you're in
a recession that's so deep that Monterey policy alone can't
(04:39):
handle it, and you want to engage in material degrees
of fiscal support to the economy. This was something like
COVID like the depth of the pandemic with the Cares Act,
when Monterey policy alone wasn't enough to get the economy
through a problems.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Some of the growth forecasts that you're talking about their predictions.
Of course, you don't know what's going to come, but
we're seeing retailers who visited the White House talking about
empty shelves at their stores because of supply chain constraints
depending on what tariffs kick in. We're talking about in
consumers maybe seeing price increases. And Trump has acknowledged that
(05:14):
there's going to be short term pain for long term gain.
That short term pain is going to come at a
time when we are teetering at the edge of deficits
that maybe the US can't handle. We haven't found out
what that threshold is. So talk to me a little
bit about the short term pain. Are you prepared for
(05:36):
a recession, because that's what it sounds like Trump is
talking about.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
I don't expect the deficit to be nearly as bad
as some of these numbers that are being tossed GDP growth.
Do you think we're going to say that short term?
As I said, it's a mistake. It's a mistake to
focus exclusively on something like a CBO score and ignore
all the other things that are going on, like tariff revenues.
I mean, I think that's just bonkers, and yet that's
what people seem to want to do. But I think
it's a mistake. And sometimes, you know, people people live
in narratives, and they focus in a narrative and then
(06:02):
eventually the market realizes it's wrong, and that'll happen in
this case too, And it similarly won't be surprising if
there's volatility in other economic data as well. For instance,
we're in the middle of more than twenty serious trade
negotiations with our partners. There's one hundred others that have
expressed interest in talking. Right These are very material and
we will get resolution on these within coming months, and
(06:23):
we will get resolution on the tax bill, hopefully very soon.
And while we're waiting on resolution, you know, it is
not surprising if a company delays an investment or delays
hiring or whatever, you know, delays some economic activity from
one month to another, from one quarter to another. But
waiting for the resolution dealing with the uncertainty that doesn't
(06:44):
cause a recession, that just pushes activity from one time
period to another.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Talk to me a little bit more about the short
term volatility. The President has signaled, essentially given almost forward
guidance that there could be a couple of quarters of
pain as we work on the long term picture. That
is sort of the essence of any kind of revolution
in economic landscapes. What are you expecting? What's the worst
(07:09):
that could happen? Do you have any estimates of where
you expect the fourth quarter of this year to end?
Speaker 1 (07:14):
So I don't have a precise number, in part because
the policy is still fluid and I can't prejudge the
outcome of those policies, right, and so you know, there
can be differences based on the ability of other countries
to make the concessions they need to keep the teriff
rates where they are or even lower, you know, and
prevent the April second tariffs from snapping back. It really
(07:35):
would be wrong for me to prejudge their outcome and
give a precise number.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Do you have any sense of when we would expect
to see a smaller trade deficit? Since that is the
ultimate goal here.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
Yeah, So first you have to continue making the trade deals,
and I am confident that we will be able to
finish off a number more in coming weeks. And as
we succeed in creating a fairer trade environment in which
other countries treat us the way we treat them, that
will succeed in bringing trade deficits down because we will
be able to export so much more. And that's a
world of more trade. That's a world of more balanced trade.
(08:07):
It's a world of fair trade, and it's still a
world of prosperity for America and prosperity for everyone, for
all countries.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Before we shift gears here, Steve, you're an economist, your
spokesman for the administration's economic agenda. If things get a
little hairy later this year, early next year, as the
trade deals are being hammered out, as tariffs kind of
hit companies, as the world adjusts, what is your message
going to be to investors, to everyday consumers when they're
(08:36):
worried is this a blip or is this a deeper
economic slowdown?
Speaker 1 (08:41):
So, look, I think it's really important to have some
context here. And at the end of the day, imports,
our fourteen percent of the economy. Right, there are limits
to how much fourteen percent of the economy can move
the whole. And you have to look at what we're
doing on the other stuff as well. If you look
at the tax policy, if you look at deregulation, if
you look at energy abundance, these affect eighty six percent
(09:02):
of the economy. Right, they affect everything, and so there
are really just profound limits on the ability of fourteen
percent of the economy to matter so much that it
can create mark.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
It's reacted strongly based on what could happen to this
fourteen percent of the economy.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Well, as I said, I think that financial markets were
a little surprised at the scope of the president's policies.
And also financial markets are maybe a little bit more
dependent on the international environment than the economy is right,
they're not. You know, financial markets in the economy are related,
but they're not exactly the same thing.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
It's a very big shift to do for fourteen percent
of economy based on that number.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Yeah, but I mean stocks have recovered right, most of
their losses. So what I would say is is this
is an extremely pro growth administration. We are focused on
one hundred percent on getting the tax bill over the line,
on creating an investment boom in America, cutting red tape,
which I think is profoundly powerful and really underappreciated by economists.
Economists dramatically underappreciate the importance regulation because it's not quantitative,
(10:01):
and it's difficult to study. The regulations you're subject to
vary based on what line of work you're in, how
big your firm is, how old your firm is, what
your aisstictions you operate in. All of this stuff is qualitative,
and we've made enormous progress already, but it still takes time.
We're a nation of laws. It takes time to change
the rules. It takes time to write regulations, their question periods,
their common periods. This is a process, and so we
(10:24):
think that over the next few years we can get there.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
After the break, I ask CEA chair Stephen Myron about
the Trump administration's plans for currency policy and the possibility
of a Mara Lago accord. There's a lot of talk
(10:51):
about currencies these days. Markets are just it seems insatiable,
there appetite for any kind of detail on this. Oddly,
what is the connection between the trade deals that are
being worked out right now, you said there's twenty currently
being worked out.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
And currency policy, there is none there, you know, there
there is none.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
So when we hear from the Japanese finance minister that
I'm going to bring up currencies when I speak with Besant,
that's the other side bringing you to the.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Table, not the US Secretary. Bessant is the one who
you know, has the policy authority over over the dollar,
and he's been He's been pretty clear in saying that,
you know, the United States continues to continues to have
the same dollar policies it's had for decades, right, the
United States continues to have the strong dollar policy. The
United States will you know, Will Will Will Will continue
(11:43):
with the policies that we've had for a really long time.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
He has been very clear. The nature of currency accords
is that they seem to happen in secret, right, the
Plaza accord, the Liubra accord, they happened when no one
realized that they were being planned. And I think that
is something that's on Trader's minds quite a bit about
what could be happening behind the scenes that we don't know.
But I'm wondering what you're thinking, is that we've heard
from Trump for a long time that he wants a
(12:07):
weaker dollar. I mean, this goes back to the nineteen eighties.
We have people like you and Lutnik and especially Scott Besten,
the Treasure Secretary, saying over and over again that the
US does have a strong dollar policy. We want investments
in the US that drives up the dollar. But the
markets don't seem to believe it. Do you have any
sense as to why.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
I think folks in markets often, you know, they get
these little obsessions and it takes ten thousand reiterations at
the same point to finally get them to believe us
when when we say something. And I think you saw
something similar with this, like a decade ago. I remember
the FED being extremely clear that it was never going
to do negative interest rates, and you know, like every
(12:48):
day they'd come in and get that question, and every day,
you know, they had to say, that's ridiculous, We're never
going to do that. And I remember at the time,
you know, like being really annoyed. Why am I seeing
this red headline on my Bloomberg every day that you know,
FED speaker X says will never do negative interest rates?
And now I have some sympathy because now we have
to do the same thing. Almost every single day. The
president hosts a press conference straight from the Oval, where
(13:11):
he's got lots of reporters directly there, asks him questions,
and he answers those questions, and he tells you exactly
what's on his mind, and he tells you exactly what
he's thinking, exactly what he wants to accomplish, exactly what
he's going to do, and one by one he does
what he says he's going to do.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
It's interesting that there's so much talk about a currency
accord when actually in the nineteen eighties, the last time
we had a real one, central bankers and finance ministers
had a lot more sway in currency markets. Currency markets
were much smaller. Now we have something like eight trillion
dollars changing hands. Even if you wanted to do an accord,
(13:46):
is it even possible because of the some of the
constraints for central bankers and finance.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Ministers in general. I tend to think that policymakers can
be creative when they need to. But like you know, again,
like there's no there's nothing here, right, there's you know,
we're not secretly at work on any of this stuff.
There's nothing there.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
There's no work going on right now on a marlogo
accord or any kind of currency accord.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
This look, you know, Secretary has been has been clear.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
It's a little confusing as to what the dollar policy is.
I know has said several times that the US is
strong dollar policy is intact. But you have said, and
the President has said, and Vesson has signaled that there
are benefits to a week dollar, and that came from
Trump's first term. His first treasure Secretary, Stephen Mnushin also
(14:36):
said some of the same things. Do you think that
a week dollar is okay for America, that it's okay
for the exchange rate to be a little bit lower.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
This is really the type of thing that you should
address the Treasury Secretary and not to me. And you
know what I could do is repeat his words that
you know, a strong dollar is good for America. And
that's not just merely a statement about levels. It's a
statement about the strength of the dollar system and dollar
dominance and the fact that that gives us many other
benefits that come with that.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
It looks like we're seeing finance ministers wanting to talk
to Bassant the right person to talk to you about
currency policy. They want to talk to him about currencies.
We're seeing in Asia that some of the you know,
the South Korean Wan, the Taiwan dollar, they are increasing.
It looks as if economic authorities in those countries are
letting their currencies appreciate, whereas before they targeted them, weaken them,
(15:30):
letting them appreciate against the dollar to kind of pave
the way for a trade deal. So is it kind
of a case of Trump wants a weeker dollar but
he doesn't really have to ask for it.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Now, Look, you know again, I can just say the
same thing, which is that, you know, I think that
we've all been very straightforward in what we say about
this policy, and nothing has changed. There's been no change
in currency policy.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
All right, Well, thanks so much for joining the show.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Steven, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
This is the Big Take DC from Bloomberg News. I'm Salaiavosen.
This episode was produced by Rachel Lewis Chrisky. It was
fact checked by Julia Press and mixed and sound designed
by Alex Sugia. Special thanks to Brendan Palmer, Nicholas Bach,
Susie McCrory and Wendell Thorman. If you like this episode,
make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take DC
(16:23):
wherever you listen to podcasts. That helps people find the
show
Popular Podcasts
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.