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November 30, 2025 • 16 mins

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses following modest US gains on Friday, with investors turning focus to a slew of economic data ahead of an expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this month. And over the weekend, China's factory activity improved but remained in contraction in November, extending its streak of declines to a record as the country's economic slowdown deepens. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.2, remaining below the 50 mark that separates growth and contraction for an eighth month. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 49.4. For more on the week ahead, we heard from Illiana Jain, Economist at Westpac International. She spoke to Bloomberg's Avril Hong and Shery Ahn on the Asia Trade.

Plus - FII Priority Asia Summit is taking place in Tokyo and it brings together key leaders and policy makers from Saudi Arabia and Japan. The summit's focus will be on robotics, AI trade, and global supply chains. And we had the chance to hear from Rishi Kapoor, Vice Chair & CIO Investcorp. He spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Dan Schwartzman. Doug
Prisner has the day off. We begin with markets and
the week ahead, Asian stocks swung between gains and losses
following modest US gains on Friday, with investors turning their
focus to a slew of economic data ahead of an
expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month. The September
PCE Index will be released after a long delay, which

(00:32):
is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and over the weekend,
in China, factory activity improved but remained in contraction in November,
extending its streak of declines to a record as a
country's economic slow down deepens. For more on what the
data released in Beijing means for the Chinese economy, we
heard from Iliana Jane, economist at Westpac International. She spoke

(00:53):
to Bloomberg's Sherry On in April.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
Honk, So, we are watching a number of delayed economic
indicators out of the US infleetion numbers this week. Pmis
across Asia as well, but talk to us about what
you're watching most closely.

Speaker 4 (01:10):
So at the moment we're really focused on what's going
on in China. We saw some of the PMI numbers
come out over the weekend, and as you mentioned, there's
been a slow down in factory activity. But what caught
my attention was really the service's side. We saw some
weakness there as well. Now this is really important because
we saw comments from authorities noting that they wanted consumption

(01:32):
to be a big driving force for GDP over the
next five years, and that weakness and services certainly isn't
going to help. We've seen that consumers in China have
not fared particularly well given the weakness in real estate
prices and what that's meant for household wealth and the
confidence there. And so for authorities to achieve their vision

(01:53):
of having consumption be a bigger part of GDP growth
within China, they'll have to rebuild that. They'll have to
rebuild that confidence among households.

Speaker 3 (02:05):
How can they go about doing so, you think.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
So?

Speaker 4 (02:10):
I think firstly it's all about stimulus, but having very
targeted stimulus response, So putting a floor under real estate
price falls, and that's something that they've been working on
over the last year, and also creating an alternative asset
class that consumers feel comfortable investing into to preserve their wealth. Lastly,
of course, is putting through more stimulus to help stimulate

(02:35):
domestic growth domestic demand there as well.

Speaker 1 (02:42):
Who will be the most effected across Asia? Given the
weakness that we're seeing in China.

Speaker 4 (02:50):
It's a very interconnected region, so it's hard to say
if any particular country is going to be affected. Right now,
most market watchers are looking at Japan and China tensions
and being a little bit concerned about Japan. In Japan,
we can see that they've now got tensions with China
and that's already seen a drop in tourist numbers within Japan.

(03:12):
China is Japan's biggest export partner, followed by the US,
which again they're also having trade tensions there. So for
Japan it looks like a pretty difficult trade outlook for
twenty twenty six.

Speaker 1 (03:27):
Will that derail the Bank of Japan.

Speaker 4 (03:32):
For the Bank of Japan, they're looking at factors both
domestically and internationally. So, like I said, on the international front,
things aren't looking too good given both tensions with their
two biggest trade partners, alongside the global slowdown in growth.
But they've got plenty of domestic concerns as well. So,
for example, wages in Japan, while they have grown in

(03:52):
nominal terms, in real terms, they've gone backwards through most
of twenty twenty five. That's going to be a that's
really hampered consumer confidence across Japan and has meant that
Japanese households maybe don't feel as comfortable engaging engaging in
discretionary spending. At the same time, we've seen inflation be

(04:12):
quite high, driven by food prices, and while that has
meant that the headline number for inflation has been quite strong,
it's again it's another thing that households are concerned about
when they see prices of staple goods such as rice
increase quite dramatically. On the upside, however, we did see
a fiscal package announced by Japanese government, and when we

(04:35):
get a few more details around how that will be
delivered and when that would be delivered, that will definitely
be a tailwind for growth for twenty twenty six for
the country.

Speaker 3 (04:45):
Helena, Aside from Japan, where else in the region do
you think looks vulnerable In terms of China potentially exporting
a bit of its teppit growth to other parts of Asia.

Speaker 4 (04:58):
So we've definitely seen that is redirecting a lot of
the exports it's been sending to the US to other
parts of Asia. And while that has been quite good
for its redirection, it hasn't fully made up for the
demand that the US takes on. So when we're thinking
about regional growth, when we're thinking about growth in China,

(05:18):
the US is still a very key factor for that.
So the outlook for the US there is very important.

Speaker 1 (05:27):
What about when it comes to Australia where you are,
because of course we have seen horn prices extending gains
and inflationary pressures could make it difficult for the IBA
to act.

Speaker 4 (05:40):
Yeah, certainly so, we saw a pretty high number last
week on inflation. However, when we look under the hood,
under that inflation print, a lot of the price increases
came from either energy prices, which were mostly base effects,
but also a lot of administrative prices, so prices that
increase due to policy impacts. Now, if I was the RBA,

(06:03):
look from their perspective, they're not these sorts of prices
aren't likely to persist for a long period of time,
and they're not indicative of demand side pressure. They are
simply policy related price increases. So as such, well, inflation
is quite high right now, it's unlikely to persist through
the course of next year. We are anticipating that inflation

(06:26):
comes down to the middle of the target band by
the middle of next year, and that'll give the RBA
confidence to start cutting rates from May of next year.

Speaker 3 (06:37):
Leanna, how much does what the FED does or is
going to do matter for these other Asia central banks,
because it does seem like maybe they are a little
less synchronized going into the first half of next year.

Speaker 1 (06:56):
Yeah, certainly.

Speaker 4 (06:57):
And look, there has been a lot of times in
history where these Asian central banks have been quite synchronized
with what the FED does. But right now, when you
look at statements from a lot of regional central banks,
whether it be the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank
of India, a lot of it's focused on the domestic
side of things. They're looking at domestic demand and how

(07:17):
that's fearing. They're looking at inflation, and there has been
diverging instances of food inflation across different economies, and so
what we think for next year, a lot of these
Asian central banks are going to be focused on the
domestic picture. Alongside that international picture, and they're probably not
going to take as much que from the FED as

(07:37):
perhaps they have in previous previous hiking cutting cycles.

Speaker 2 (07:43):
That was Ileana Jane, economists at Westbak International speaking with
Bloomberg sherry On and April Hang. Coming up, we will
head to the FII Priority Asia Summit where we will
hear from Rishi Kapor, vice chair and CIO at Investcorp.

(08:03):
Welcome back to the Daybreak GAJA podcast. I'm Dan Schwartzman.
Christner has the day off. FII Priority Asia Summit is
taking place in Tokyo and it brings together key leaders
and policy makers from Saudi Arabia and Japan. The summit's
focused will be on robotics, AI trade and global supply chains.
And we had the chance to hear from Rishi Kapor,
vice chair and CIO of Investcorp. He spoke to Bloomberg's

(08:26):
sherry On in April.

Speaker 3 (08:27):
Hunk, we've just been talking about Japan and some of
the stimulus needs and the push talk to us about
what you are seeing there.

Speaker 5 (08:40):
Well, Hi, good morning and thank you for having me.
I think what we are clearly seeing from our vantage
point as a global private markets focused investment firmat Investcorp.
Is the emergence of this corridor, if I may call it,
that off capital flow, trade flow and investment flow between

(09:03):
Japan and the Middle East, routing itself through and via
India in particular, but Asia and broadly speaking, and that
corridor of bidirectional trade and capital and investment flow is
really what is very interesting for firms like ours to
tap into because for the first time, it's like I said,

(09:24):
it's bidirectional, and more importantly, it's also opening up a
world of opportunity for us to deploy capital behind in
areas and sectors of high conviction and potentially high return
in the future.

Speaker 3 (09:40):
Appreciate Is this flow through the corridors that you speak
of going to be agnostic of the BOJS path? Do
investors need to see hike for more conviction?

Speaker 5 (09:56):
I think that's a great question, And to be honest,
I think the Boj's path is actually one of the
underpinnings for this corridor to emerge and cement itself the
way I described it, because for the longest of times,
for many decades, the growth trajectory for Japan in general

(10:16):
was relatively muted in terms of nominal GDP and with
the emergence of some degree of acceptable normalized inflation in
the Japanese economy, whilst a continuing relatively low interest rate
environment behind, it means that the prospect for strong attractive
returns for equity investors in private markets but also arguably

(10:42):
in public markets are very strong over a medium to
long term horizon. And that's really what is giving rise
to that increasing investor interest. That is of course supplemented
beyond what the BOJ does by the emergence of a
large set of opportunities within certain sectors, many of them

(11:02):
related to technology and innovation, but also related to energy
transition and infrastructure both digital and physical, that support this
increase in interest for capital flows between the Middle East
and Japan. And I think, last but not least, the
work that the BOJ is doing in terms of enhancing

(11:25):
governance in particular and regulatory reform is an important pillar
of how we see this market evolvent.

Speaker 1 (11:35):
How does the weakness of the Japanese yen factor into
your calculations on investments in Japan.

Speaker 5 (11:43):
Well, you know, look, the weakness of the Japanese yen
today obviously provides an attractive entry point for new investment
activity into Japan. But the key over here is what
happens in the future. If the yen continues to be
that would obviously not be a great thing for a
foreign investor denominated in a different currency. So I think

(12:08):
some degree of expected policy stability around the currency as
we look out over a medium term horizon would be
greatly helpful and positively impactful for investors as they consider
investment opportunities in Japan facilitated by the current dy and weakness.
As you said, I'm.

Speaker 1 (12:30):
Sure you've seen opportunities both in China and India, right
We continue to see the economic slump in China in
the economic data that we're getting recently. What are the
opportunities in these two countries and do you have a
ratio of how much of your investments go into these
two economies?

Speaker 5 (12:54):
Well, today, look Asia and aggregate including the Middle East
is a relatively modest part of our overall portfolio, about
ten percent, but it's ten percent from a very small,
very low level over a very very short period of time,
so it's growing really fast. Now. As we look out

(13:15):
into the future, it would not be surprising at all
for us to see a continued growth trajectory in our
inment investment portfolio in Asia, including India, Japan, and China,
all of these economies, by the way, you know, there
are certain macro characteristics that one can debate all day long,
but what is more important is the micro characteristics. Choosing

(13:39):
the right sectors where there is going to be a
flow of capital, there's going to be an appropriate balance
of risk and reward, and where one can expect to
generate some attractive returns over a medium term horizon. As
I said earlier, in Japan, those sectors relate to business services,
technology infrastructure. In China, the energy transition is a very

(13:59):
interesting theme, as is domestic consumption. India is almost all
about domestic consumption across a variety of sectors, so you know,
we see a lot of opportunity there. And last but
not least, in the Middle East. You know, just the
very significant impulse that the local governments are providing to
the build out of regional infrastructure and enhancing domestic consumption

(14:21):
as well as consumer services provides a very interesting backdrop
for investment as well.

Speaker 3 (14:28):
Rishie, what would you say is the biggest risk for
both public and private markets in twenty twenty six.

Speaker 5 (14:40):
I mean, from our vantage point, we think some of
the key risks in twenty twenty six from public and
private markets really are going to be around the degree
of stability or uncertainty related to interest rates, particularly in
the US, because there is a bit of a tussle
right now between you know, whether the FED in particular

(15:02):
is more worried about the inflationary impulse resulting from slightly
more sticky inflation, sticky in wage inflation in particular, but
also the impulse from tariffs to inflation, and on the
flip side, the slowing employment growth is the opposite side
of that same coin. And I think that degree of

(15:24):
uncertainty around the future trajectory of interest rates is probably
an overarching concern for US because to a large extent,
what the markets have underwritten or discanunted currently is a
continued trajectory of lower interest rates. To the extent that
doesn't manifest itself at the levels that the market is anticipating,

(15:45):
that could be somewhat problematic for market levels.

Speaker 2 (15:48):
That was Rishi Kapor invest Corp Wevice chair in CIO
speaking to Bloomberg's sherry On in April. Honk from the
FII prior to Asia Summit.

Speaker 6 (15:58):
Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,
or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore

(16:20):
and Australia. I'm Doug Prisner, and this is Bloomberg
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