June 2, 2025 • 16 mins
Asian shares were off to a tepid start at the open Tuesday after a rebound in big tech drove US stocks higher. Bonds fell as the dollar hit its lowest since 2023. Wall Street kept a close eye on the latest twists in the trade war, with the US extending the exclusion of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods until Aug. 31, according to a notice issued by the US Customs and Border Protection. Trump and Xi Jinping will "likely" speak this week, according to the White House. We talk markets with Adam Coons, Chief Investment Officer at Winthrop Capital Management.
Plus - South Koreans head to the polls Tuesday to elect a new president to lead the nation after an attempt to impose martial law at the end of last year triggered its worst constitutional crisis in decades. Opposition Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung was the frontrunner ahead of conservative ruling People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo in final polls conducted last week. A third contender, Lee Jun-seok, a former PPP leader now running for the Reform Party, was splitting the conservative vote. The winner will face the challenges of trying to unite a deeply fractured country and restore growth to a shrinking economy that is among the most vulnerable in the world to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. For more, we hear from M. Jae Moon, Professor of Public Policy and Management at Yonsei University. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn in Seoul.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm deg Prisner. South
Koreans are heading to the polls on Tuesday. They will
elect a new president, and in a moment we'll preview
the election with MJ. Moon. He is professor of public
policy and management at Yonsai University in Seoul. But we
begin with markets. Trade news continues to dominate the headlines.
(00:32):
After the bell, the US said that it was extending
the pause on tariffs for some Chinese goods all the
way to August thirty first. Earlier in the day, the
White House said that Presidents Trump and She are likely
and I put that in air quotes to speak this
week after the two sides traded accusations of breaching a
trade agreement reached in May. Joining me now for a
(00:53):
closer look at how the tariff story is impacting markets
is Adam Koons. He is the chief investment officer at
Winthrop Capital Management. Adam joins US from Indianapolis. I was
struck by the fact that this ism data really underscores
the problems that the tariff regime has created. US manufacturing
contracting in May for a third consecutive month. The group's
(01:15):
measure of imports now at a sixteen year low. And
what's interesting here is that higher material cost do remain
a problem for producers. Sixteen of eighteen industries reported higher prices.
So I guess you have to look no further than
this ISM data to get an immediate read on how
tariffs are impacting the economy. Would you agree with that?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Oh, I totally agree.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
And you know, we were saying from the beginning that
ultimately we thought that tariffs were actually disinflationary because of
this reason. And what I'm getting at is that we
saw tariffs as an economic contractor.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
And that would net net.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
Lead to, you know, a deceleration inflation, not this acceleration
and inflation that a lot of people were talking about,
because at the end of the day, you're going to
see manufacturing contract on two things. One is the uncertainty,
and you hit on the last part is the fact
that those costs are going up. And so when those
(02:21):
things happen, and you see the contraction and manufacturing sector,
and that's actually completely contrary to what the Trump administration
is trying to do. And we see this if this
goes on for too long And what I mean by
that is the narrative, the rhetoric around tariffs in the
back and forth.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
You know, it could spell some tough times for the
US economy.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, no doubt about that. And if you look at
the price action in the bond market, not that yields
were up to a large degree, but I think the
sense is that there is a lot of concern here
over the possibility of stagflation. What if that were to
really take hold.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
Well, saculation is the kind of boogeyman under the bed
for the FED, right, I mean, because that's the scenario
where the Fed's stuck and what you have there is
you've got, you know, unemployment is ticking up, the economy
is rolling over, but at the same time, inflation would
(03:24):
be ticking up in a stackflation environment, meaning that the
FED couldn't use the tools they've used in the past
to try to stimulate the economy because all that would
do is make the inflation part of the equation, you know, worse,
And so that is a big concern for us because
that could lead to some bigger problems. Ultimately, we think
(03:45):
that if the FED is in that kind of stuck
position and can't decrease rates or they don't feel like
they can decrease rates because inflation is ticking higher. Then
that could lead to a much harder landing for the
US economy. I think ultimately that's going to work itself out.
(04:07):
We don't think stagflation is the base case. We don't
think a recession is the base case. But that's all
you conducive on the duration of all this, And if
it continues to kind of go on and on, like
I said that back and forth rhetoric, then we probably
(04:27):
would hit that scenario of stagflation. But I think what
we need to see is we need to see the
Trump administration continue to push on tariffs and the FED
being stuck before we had that kind of scenario.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
We had an interesting piece on the Bloomberg terminal today
some large money managers are steering away from the thirty
year treasury. That list would include Double Line Capital, Pimco,
TCW Group. So these are big firms now and they're
favoring shorter maturities. I think a range here maybe between
the two and the ten. Is that how you would
(05:02):
play the bond market right now and really avoid the
super long end of the curve at all cost well.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
For right now, I would be a little bit cautious
on going all the way out to the thirty year.
I think if there is a buying opportunity there, I
just don't think it's yet. I think you need to
see because part of the issue is all of this
death that's maturing this year and the pressure that just
generally will put on the bond market. Now, it'd say
(05:30):
I was, you know, the sophisticated fixed income investor in
the US, and the globe knows that's there.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
So I think most of it's priced in. So that's
why I think there is a.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
Buying opportunity, and so I wouldn't be selling my long
end exposure right now, but you know, I would be
cautious about actually extending duration at the moment.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
But I do think long run long duration is.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
One of the best bets in the market right now,
because you know, when you're talking about five percent on
the long bond, we haven't seen that in you know.
I know we saw it because in twenty three, but
prior to that, we haven't seen those levels in a decade.
And so I do see this as a as a
point in time and opportunity where the risk for asymmetric
(06:17):
because you know, if we're at five percent, think of
it in terms of what's the risk of six percent
versus four percent?
Speaker 3 (06:26):
US getting to six percent.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
I think is a low likelihood because then you start
to have a lot of the kind of global effects
work into you know, the foreign buyers would want to
buy US treasuries if we're approaching six percent versus there's
probably a higher chance of being at four percent than
that six percent. So I would take the bet that,
you know, clip that five percent coupon and a higher
(06:48):
likelihood that we get to four percent.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
I just wouldn't be going all in yet.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
I think we need to see a little bit of
this uncertainty with the Trump administration die down first.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
I'm wondering how you're feeling about the equity market if
you look at the fact that the S and P
is within four percent of its February record high. I
think the S and P bottomed oalt around April eighth.
That was a pretty sharp decline. How are you feeling
about the overall equity space in the US right now?
Speaker 4 (07:14):
I don't think that the volatility is over, so we
are still being cautious.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Now.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
We had the advantage of coming into the year, we
were very defensive in our equity allocations, and then when
we saw the downturn in March and April, we kind
of shifted back towards a more neutral state, which gave
us the opportunity to write it up. But now we
are aggressively moving back towards that defensive stance because the
extended valuations, the uncertainty, those things really haven't changed for us.
(07:44):
So we still want to be fully invested. We don't
want to sit on the sidelines. We don't want to
be in cash, but our equity allocation it's just been
dialed back, and so we're looking at low vall strategies,
higher dividend paying stocks rather.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Than the growth oriented right now.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
If something changes, like I said, out of the Trump administration,
then we would probably switch out again to growth because
we do think that there are enough catalysts for the
growth type stocks. But right now it's just there's too
much back and forth for us to feel comfortable just
going all in, you know, and turning the dial all
the way back up. So we did move back to
defensive within the last i'd say fifteen days, and if
(08:25):
we saw volatility pick up again, we'd probably just kind
of trade this because this could be you know, a
trader's best environment where we see chopping markets, and that's
that's kind of our base case for the rest of
the summer until we kind of get to that you know,
back half of the year, then we may see things
settle down, but our base cases a volatility will remain
(08:45):
high for the next several months.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
What about foreign markets? Are you being pushed to consider
looking offshore?
Speaker 4 (08:53):
So our offshore exposure is relatively small, and what we're
doing right now now actually is taking that even lower.
And if you look at the what we're looking at
is kind of the evaluation and the divide the delta
between developed international markets and the US markets, And depending
(09:15):
on the day you look, it's running roughly a sixteen
to seventeen percent delta, meaning that international stocks at any
given day are out performing.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
US this year by that amount, and we.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
Haven't seen that and I don't know how many years
where the international markets have outperformed in the US on
a consistent basis, and we think that that delta has
gotten too wide. So we're actually pulling back our international
exposure with that scenario, moving more into the US markets,
looking for that gap to close before we move back
(09:47):
towards international markets again.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
Adam will leave it there, always a pleasure. Thank you
so much for joining us. Adam kons there. He is
the chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management, joining from Indianapolis.
In the end, here on the Daybreak Asia podcast, Welcome
back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. South
(10:13):
Koreans are headed to the polls on Tuesday to choose
a new president. This election comes after an attempt last
year to impose martial law. That event triggered one of
South Korea's worst constitutional crises in decades. Now, today's winner,
we'll be facing the challenges of trying to unite a
deeply fractured country and to restore growth to a shrinking economy,
(10:36):
one of the most vulnerable in the world to President
Trump's trade tariffs. For more, we heard from MJ. Moon.
He is professor of Public Policy and Management at Yonsai
University in Seoul. He spoke with Bloomberg's cherry On Professor.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
Really great to have you with us outside here of
the National Assembly. Thank you so much for coming out
for having me. I have to ask you I mean
it's a public holiday, so thank you so much coming out.
Did you vote already? Are you voting today?
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Well?
Speaker 3 (11:03):
I did the last week.
Speaker 5 (11:04):
We had two days early voting days, so that I did.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
Yeah, that Friday, that was.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
Super high turnout, what the second highest on record, that's.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
Right about thirty five, So that that's the high, second
highest in Korean history.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
That's like give us sort of an indication of where
this election could be headed.
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Yeah, I think so. Well, you know that high turnout
in an early voting, I think that's the the that
symbolized the sentiment and then you know the heightened public
engagement in this election, so that I think that's a
really big turnout and I think that's maybe a signal
to the positive signal to the mister Lee Democratic Party.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Yah, the front runner of the election so far as
we saw in last week's polls. But tell us a
little bit about what.
Speaker 6 (11:54):
We can expect from him because if his election, the
difference is now elections, you will not have a transition
period to put everything in place before he gets into office.
Speaker 5 (12:06):
Yeah, this is snap credential elections, so that there will
be no formal, standardized transition period, so that he should
have taken over the power as soon as the National
Election Commission announced the election result, so that he should
be ready for taking over the administration and ready for
the making policies and also working through in the middle
(12:31):
of very passing domestic and international issues.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Yeah, that was my point because if you have to
work this fast, how soon can you put a working
cabinet in place at a time when you're running out
of time in order to negotiate with the United States
on these twenty five percent tariffs that have been temporarily
lowered to ten percent.
Speaker 5 (12:52):
So that according to the law, all the ministers should
be nominated by the Prime minister, so that we don't
have a prime minister now, so that formality, uh, he
should have waited until he has due prime minister, so
that I think his cabinet formality wise, he will work
with the current ministers, so that I think, you know,
(13:13):
he has his own shadow cabinet already and he has
his own team already, but you know, his formality, he
should have worked with the current ministers. But I think
he will appoint the vice ministers in its ministries so
that they will play key roles in cabinet meetings.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
I think, depending on whether it's Jong or the ruling parties,
Kimunsu or any other third party candidate, what sort of
policies could we see when it comes to dealing with
the United States in these trade negotiations. Well, I think, you.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
Know, that's one of the pressing issues. And the mister
Lee has been emphasizing the significance of the ally relationship
with the US, but at the same time, he really
wanted to have very programmatic relationship with the major players.
Particularly he wanted to have a good relationship with the
(14:05):
China for national interests, and China is the largest trading partner,
so he really tried to balance between military ally relationship
and trading economic relationship with other countries.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
And of course the relationship with China will be tricky.
The relationship with Japan could also change depending on if
we see a change in government.
Speaker 5 (14:27):
Well, geopolitics is really changing. That's major issues, and I
think you know, the really tried to maintain positive trilateral
relationship US, Japan, Korea at the same time, I think,
you know, deal with the frosty relationship with the China.
I think that's one of the major key forwarding policy issues.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
To miss the lead for voters.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Is it all about the economy? Is it about democrassing?
Speaker 5 (14:54):
Yeah, a lot of people really got frustrated with the
down economic downturn and small medium business owners really got frustrated.
So that you know, there's a really big demand from
the people for stimul economic stimulations, so that I think
economic package, police package by the new administration will be
(15:16):
really critical, and I think that's one of the big
things to the voter's mind today.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Thank you so much for joining us today here outside
of the National Assembly. Was really great speaking to you,
And of course this is MJ. Moon Underwood, the swimmers
professor at Jonce University's Department of Public Policy and Management.
Of course, our voters here in South Kolia can get
to the polls until apm Global time to cast their ballads.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube panel,
or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore
(16:07):
and Australia. I'm Doug prisoner, and this is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm deg Prisner. South
Koreans are heading to the polls on Tuesday. They will
elect a new president, and in a moment we'll preview
the election with MJ. Moon. He is professor of public
policy and management at Yonsai University in Seoul. But we
begin with markets. Trade news continues to dominate the headlines.
(00:32):
After the bell, the US said that it was extending
the pause on tariffs for some Chinese goods all the
way to August thirty first. Earlier in the day, the
White House said that Presidents Trump and She are likely
and I put that in air quotes to speak this
week after the two sides traded accusations of breaching a
trade agreement reached in May. Joining me now for a
(00:53):
closer look at how the tariff story is impacting markets
is Adam Koons. He is the chief investment officer at
Winthrop Capital Management. Adam joins US from Indianapolis. I was
struck by the fact that this ism data really underscores
the problems that the tariff regime has created. US manufacturing
contracting in May for a third consecutive month. The group's
(01:15):
measure of imports now at a sixteen year low. And
what's interesting here is that higher material cost do remain
a problem for producers. Sixteen of eighteen industries reported higher prices.
So I guess you have to look no further than
this ISM data to get an immediate read on how
tariffs are impacting the economy. Would you agree with that?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Oh, I totally agree.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
And you know, we were saying from the beginning that
ultimately we thought that tariffs were actually disinflationary because of
this reason. And what I'm getting at is that we
saw tariffs as an economic contractor.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
And that would net net.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
Lead to, you know, a deceleration inflation, not this acceleration
and inflation that a lot of people were talking about,
because at the end of the day, you're going to
see manufacturing contract on two things. One is the uncertainty,
and you hit on the last part is the fact
that those costs are going up. And so when those
(02:21):
things happen, and you see the contraction and manufacturing sector,
and that's actually completely contrary to what the Trump administration
is trying to do. And we see this if this
goes on for too long And what I mean by
that is the narrative, the rhetoric around tariffs in the
back and forth.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
You know, it could spell some tough times for the
US economy.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, no doubt about that. And if you look at
the price action in the bond market, not that yields
were up to a large degree, but I think the
sense is that there is a lot of concern here
over the possibility of stagflation. What if that were to
really take hold.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
Well, saculation is the kind of boogeyman under the bed
for the FED, right, I mean, because that's the scenario
where the Fed's stuck and what you have there is
you've got, you know, unemployment is ticking up, the economy
is rolling over, but at the same time, inflation would
(03:24):
be ticking up in a stackflation environment, meaning that the
FED couldn't use the tools they've used in the past
to try to stimulate the economy because all that would
do is make the inflation part of the equation, you know, worse,
And so that is a big concern for us because
that could lead to some bigger problems. Ultimately, we think
(03:45):
that if the FED is in that kind of stuck
position and can't decrease rates or they don't feel like
they can decrease rates because inflation is ticking higher. Then
that could lead to a much harder landing for the
US economy. I think ultimately that's going to work itself out.
(04:07):
We don't think stagflation is the base case. We don't
think a recession is the base case. But that's all
you conducive on the duration of all this, And if
it continues to kind of go on and on, like
I said that back and forth rhetoric, then we probably
(04:27):
would hit that scenario of stagflation. But I think what
we need to see is we need to see the
Trump administration continue to push on tariffs and the FED
being stuck before we had that kind of scenario.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
We had an interesting piece on the Bloomberg terminal today
some large money managers are steering away from the thirty
year treasury. That list would include Double Line Capital, Pimco,
TCW Group. So these are big firms now and they're
favoring shorter maturities. I think a range here maybe between
the two and the ten. Is that how you would
(05:02):
play the bond market right now and really avoid the
super long end of the curve at all cost well.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
For right now, I would be a little bit cautious
on going all the way out to the thirty year.
I think if there is a buying opportunity there, I
just don't think it's yet. I think you need to
see because part of the issue is all of this
death that's maturing this year and the pressure that just
generally will put on the bond market. Now, it'd say
(05:30):
I was, you know, the sophisticated fixed income investor in
the US, and the globe knows that's there.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
So I think most of it's priced in. So that's
why I think there is a.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
Buying opportunity, and so I wouldn't be selling my long
end exposure right now, but you know, I would be
cautious about actually extending duration at the moment.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
But I do think long run long duration is.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
One of the best bets in the market right now,
because you know, when you're talking about five percent on
the long bond, we haven't seen that in you know.
I know we saw it because in twenty three, but
prior to that, we haven't seen those levels in a decade.
And so I do see this as a as a
point in time and opportunity where the risk for asymmetric
(06:17):
because you know, if we're at five percent, think of
it in terms of what's the risk of six percent
versus four percent?
Speaker 3 (06:26):
US getting to six percent.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
I think is a low likelihood because then you start
to have a lot of the kind of global effects
work into you know, the foreign buyers would want to
buy US treasuries if we're approaching six percent versus there's
probably a higher chance of being at four percent than
that six percent. So I would take the bet that,
you know, clip that five percent coupon and a higher
(06:48):
likelihood that we get to four percent.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
I just wouldn't be going all in yet.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
I think we need to see a little bit of
this uncertainty with the Trump administration die down first.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
I'm wondering how you're feeling about the equity market if
you look at the fact that the S and P
is within four percent of its February record high. I
think the S and P bottomed oalt around April eighth.
That was a pretty sharp decline. How are you feeling
about the overall equity space in the US right now?
Speaker 4 (07:14):
I don't think that the volatility is over, so we
are still being cautious.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Now.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
We had the advantage of coming into the year, we
were very defensive in our equity allocations, and then when
we saw the downturn in March and April, we kind
of shifted back towards a more neutral state, which gave
us the opportunity to write it up. But now we
are aggressively moving back towards that defensive stance because the
extended valuations, the uncertainty, those things really haven't changed for us.
(07:44):
So we still want to be fully invested. We don't
want to sit on the sidelines. We don't want to
be in cash, but our equity allocation it's just been
dialed back, and so we're looking at low vall strategies,
higher dividend paying stocks rather.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Than the growth oriented right now.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
If something changes, like I said, out of the Trump administration,
then we would probably switch out again to growth because
we do think that there are enough catalysts for the
growth type stocks. But right now it's just there's too
much back and forth for us to feel comfortable just
going all in, you know, and turning the dial all
the way back up. So we did move back to
defensive within the last i'd say fifteen days, and if
(08:25):
we saw volatility pick up again, we'd probably just kind
of trade this because this could be you know, a
trader's best environment where we see chopping markets, and that's
that's kind of our base case for the rest of
the summer until we kind of get to that you know,
back half of the year, then we may see things
settle down, but our base cases a volatility will remain
(08:45):
high for the next several months.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
What about foreign markets? Are you being pushed to consider
looking offshore?
Speaker 4 (08:53):
So our offshore exposure is relatively small, and what we're
doing right now now actually is taking that even lower.
And if you look at the what we're looking at
is kind of the evaluation and the divide the delta
between developed international markets and the US markets, And depending
(09:15):
on the day you look, it's running roughly a sixteen
to seventeen percent delta, meaning that international stocks at any
given day are out performing.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
US this year by that amount, and we.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
Haven't seen that and I don't know how many years
where the international markets have outperformed in the US on
a consistent basis, and we think that that delta has
gotten too wide. So we're actually pulling back our international
exposure with that scenario, moving more into the US markets,
looking for that gap to close before we move back
(09:47):
towards international markets again.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
Adam will leave it there, always a pleasure. Thank you
so much for joining us. Adam kons there. He is
the chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management, joining from Indianapolis.
In the end, here on the Daybreak Asia podcast, Welcome
back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. South
(10:13):
Koreans are headed to the polls on Tuesday to choose
a new president. This election comes after an attempt last
year to impose martial law. That event triggered one of
South Korea's worst constitutional crises in decades. Now, today's winner,
we'll be facing the challenges of trying to unite a
deeply fractured country and to restore growth to a shrinking economy,
(10:36):
one of the most vulnerable in the world to President
Trump's trade tariffs. For more, we heard from MJ. Moon.
He is professor of Public Policy and Management at Yonsai
University in Seoul. He spoke with Bloomberg's cherry On Professor.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
Really great to have you with us outside here of
the National Assembly. Thank you so much for coming out
for having me. I have to ask you I mean
it's a public holiday, so thank you so much coming out.
Did you vote already? Are you voting today?
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Well?
Speaker 3 (11:03):
I did the last week.
Speaker 5 (11:04):
We had two days early voting days, so that I did.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
Yeah, that Friday, that was.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
Super high turnout, what the second highest on record, that's.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
Right about thirty five, So that that's the high, second
highest in Korean history.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
That's like give us sort of an indication of where
this election could be headed.
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Yeah, I think so. Well, you know that high turnout
in an early voting, I think that's the the that
symbolized the sentiment and then you know the heightened public
engagement in this election, so that I think that's a
really big turnout and I think that's maybe a signal
to the positive signal to the mister Lee Democratic Party.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Yah, the front runner of the election so far as
we saw in last week's polls. But tell us a
little bit about what.
Speaker 6 (11:54):
We can expect from him because if his election, the
difference is now elections, you will not have a transition
period to put everything in place before he gets into office.
Speaker 5 (12:06):
Yeah, this is snap credential elections, so that there will
be no formal, standardized transition period, so that he should
have taken over the power as soon as the National
Election Commission announced the election result, so that he should
be ready for taking over the administration and ready for
the making policies and also working through in the middle
(12:31):
of very passing domestic and international issues.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Yeah, that was my point because if you have to
work this fast, how soon can you put a working
cabinet in place at a time when you're running out
of time in order to negotiate with the United States
on these twenty five percent tariffs that have been temporarily
lowered to ten percent.
Speaker 5 (12:52):
So that according to the law, all the ministers should
be nominated by the Prime minister, so that we don't
have a prime minister now, so that formality, uh, he
should have waited until he has due prime minister, so
that I think his cabinet formality wise, he will work
with the current ministers, so that I think, you know,
(13:13):
he has his own shadow cabinet already and he has
his own team already, but you know, his formality, he
should have worked with the current ministers. But I think
he will appoint the vice ministers in its ministries so
that they will play key roles in cabinet meetings.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
I think, depending on whether it's Jong or the ruling parties,
Kimunsu or any other third party candidate, what sort of
policies could we see when it comes to dealing with
the United States in these trade negotiations. Well, I think, you.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
Know, that's one of the pressing issues. And the mister
Lee has been emphasizing the significance of the ally relationship
with the US, but at the same time, he really
wanted to have very programmatic relationship with the major players.
Particularly he wanted to have a good relationship with the
(14:05):
China for national interests, and China is the largest trading partner,
so he really tried to balance between military ally relationship
and trading economic relationship with other countries.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
And of course the relationship with China will be tricky.
The relationship with Japan could also change depending on if
we see a change in government.
Speaker 5 (14:27):
Well, geopolitics is really changing. That's major issues, and I
think you know, the really tried to maintain positive trilateral
relationship US, Japan, Korea at the same time, I think,
you know, deal with the frosty relationship with the China.
I think that's one of the major key forwarding policy issues.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
To miss the lead for voters.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Is it all about the economy? Is it about democrassing?
Speaker 5 (14:54):
Yeah, a lot of people really got frustrated with the
down economic downturn and small medium business owners really got frustrated.
So that you know, there's a really big demand from
the people for stimul economic stimulations, so that I think
economic package, police package by the new administration will be
(15:16):
really critical, and I think that's one of the big
things to the voter's mind today.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Thank you so much for joining us today here outside
of the National Assembly. Was really great speaking to you,
And of course this is MJ. Moon Underwood, the swimmers
professor at Jonce University's Department of Public Policy and Management.
Of course, our voters here in South Kolia can get
to the polls until apm Global time to cast their ballads.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube panel,
or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore
(16:07):
and Australia. I'm Doug prisoner, and this is Bloomberg
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