August 8, 2025 • 38 mins
Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Guest Host Amy Morris take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.
- In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, along with Cisco earnings.
- In the UK – a look at Europe’s renewable energy sector and Vestas earnings.
- In Asia – a look at ahead to the next RBA decision, and the impact of chip tariffs.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the
top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors
all over the world. Straight Ahead on the program, a
look at some key inflation and retail sales data in
the US. I'm Maybe Morris in Washington.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
I'm callin hetkit Hay in London, where we're looking at
Europe's wind energy sector with the Trump administration's roll back
on maneuables.
Speaker 4 (00:32):
I'm Charlie Pellock with a look at what we can
expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia when they issue
their August Great decision next week.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg
eleven three zero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC,
Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London,
Sirius XM one twenty one, and around the world on
Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Opp Good day to you. I'm Amy Morris. We begin
today's program with some key economic data in the US.
We get USCPI data on Tuesday, the Producer Price Index
is released on Thursday and retail sales data on Friday.
How is this data going to impact FED policy as
(01:23):
we move forward? For more, we are joined by Michael McKee,
Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent Mike always a pleasure
want to start with PPI and take a peek back
at this past week which saw some weaknesses revealed in
the PMI data for July, plus reciprocal tariffs kicked in.
With all of that in mind, what should we be
(01:44):
looking for from the PPI coming up?
Speaker 5 (01:47):
Well, we're going to be looking, certainly in terms of
PPI at whether we have nascent inflation coming from tariffs,
and we'll be looking at the things within the producer
price indix that are considered intermediate goods, things that companies
buy to make other things. And if we see prices
going up there, which we should, then it'll be a
(02:09):
question of how much do they go up? Does it
suggest that we're going to have an outbreak of inflation?
And when you look at the CPI you're going to
have the same sort of questions. But therefore finished goods
for things that consumers are buying, what is it telling
us about the tariff impact on the economy, and that's
why I'll have a big effect for the Fed. It
(02:30):
will matter a lot to the Fed, more than we've
had most CPI and PPI indicators this year because they
put everything on hold waiting to see what the inflation
outcome is from tariffs.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
So these numbers are going to have more of an impact.
Do you think maybe than normally historically they would.
Speaker 5 (02:48):
Yes, they will have an impact one of two ways.
Either they will show inflation is picking up, which will
lead the Fed to be more cautious going into their
next meeting, or they'll show that things are pretty quiet,
as the President insists, and the idea that the jobs
report we had last week shows weakness in the economy
(03:12):
would give them more license to cut rates.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Should we bring up the issue of stagflation? Is there
any risk of a stagflation in our future?
Speaker 5 (03:21):
Well, that's kind of what we're looking at at the
moment now. The problem is is people tend to think
of stagflation in the way we had it in the
nineteen seventies, where inflation was very high and growth was
very low. But it can just basically mean that the
economy is not growing particularly fast and inflation is picking
up a bit, so you could have maybe four percent
(03:45):
inflation or three and a half percent inflation and growth
of a half percentage point or something like that, and
it would still qualify as stagflation. And that's kind of
what the data are pointing at right now. And we
say that because of the jobs the fact that they
were so weak, as a suggestion that maybe consumers won't
be spending as much money and the economy will slow down.
(04:09):
And obviously we're watching the CPIPPI to see if there
is the flation part of stagflation exactly.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Let's turn to the retail sales figures, then are we shopping?
What are you watching for from that? Because everything you
just explained tells me it's sort of all dovetails.
Speaker 5 (04:25):
Well, it's going to be a kind of a weird one,
as July usually is, because July we have the Amazon
Prime Days and the other retailers like Walmart who match
their discounts, and so you could get more people buying
stuff than we normally would expect under the economic conditions
(04:48):
that we have. It may not reflect yet that people
are concerned about the economy and pulling back on their spending,
because everybody likes a deal.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Forgive me, but Amazon Prime Days really have that much
of an impact they can.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
The way they calculate all of this is through dollar volume,
and the Prime days and the other discounters would be
charging less. But what ends up happening is a lot
of people buy stuff they weren't intending to buy that
isn't necessarily on sale, and so you do get an increase,
(05:24):
particularly in the category of online shopping, and so that's
something to keep an eye on. We also are looking
always looking at gasoline prices, which came down and then
started going back up again, so those will have an
impact as well. And we had better than expected auto
sales in July, so that may also suggest that we're
(05:46):
going to have a little more strength in retail sales
than we might otherwise have expected.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Well, Mike, the President did fire the head of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the concern there is that
any suggestion of political bias can and destroy trust, especially
in these numbers. How important is it for the American people, economists,
those who watch this data to have trust in these
numbers that we're going to see.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
Oh, it's vital because we rely on them for so much.
It's not just me sitting here reading the eco go
page on the Bloomberg. They're used in adjusting contracts, the
cost of living. Social security companies make plans on investment
based on what they think the inflation rate is going
to be. So they're very important numbers, and obviously they
(06:32):
matter a lot to the FED, and so being able
to believe in them is very important. Now we know
that the numbers have become a little more less accurate,
but sort of the margin of error has widened because
they're having much fewer responses to their surveys, and they've
(06:56):
also cut back the government's Congress and the presidents of
back on spending on these numbers. So it's been difficult
for the agencies, but they do their best to produce
the gold standard of data, and I don't think anybody
is looking for that to change the way they've set
it up. The commissioner of the BLS doesn't get into
(07:19):
the report, so the fact that the President fired somebody
who's not ultimately actually responsible for the report won't make
much of a change. So I don't think Wall Street's
too worried yet. It would be if somebody came in
and started making major changes in the way they compile
the data that you'd have to worry.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Okay, and we're going to leave it there. Michael McKee,
Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, Always a pleasure. Thank
you so much for your insight. All right, we move
next to corporate earnings from the networking bellwether Cisco. They
report earnings after the market close on Wednesday. For more,
we're joined by Woujin Hoo, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology analyst.
Woujin what are you looking for from Cisco's earnings report?
Speaker 6 (07:58):
Yeah, thanks for having me on. Look. I am actually
looking for a fantastic quarter coming out of coming from Cisco.
There's a couple of high level things that we need
to take into consideration. The enterprise it spending has been
a little bit more resilient than I had anticipated, so
they should easily or I believe they should come at
least come in the high end of the fourteen point
(08:21):
five to fourteen point seven billion dollar guidance for the quarter.
But more importantly, they've actually navigated their tariff situation pretty well,
so there should be you know, minimal downside risk to
earning expectations heading into the print. But more importantly, I
think the focus going into the quarter is going to
(08:42):
be more along the lines of their guidance for fiscal
twenty twenty six. You know, their long term guidance there
is four to six percent, and they have a lot
of tailwinds to help them go to the top end
of that guidance range.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Yeah, I want to ask about that, how they're able
to maintain stable demand and steady growth in this current
AI environment because this is the pool everybody's jumping into.
So how can Cisco maintain all of that set itself apart?
Is it navigating their own tariff deal or is there
more to it?
Speaker 6 (09:16):
Well, you know, one one of the things that Cisco
has done over the past several years since since the
COVID period is essentially distribute their supply chain to be
less concentrated outside of China. But a couple of things
that do help them. They do have some Mexico manufacturing,
so they can get some cover under the U. S.
(09:39):
M c A, so some of their products are going
to be exempt from tariffs. And I think some of
the new tariff rules that came into you know, the
the August first deadline, that's going to help them actually
make their products a little bit more favorable from a
from a tariff perspective, So net net, they'll they'll be
(10:01):
fine from a tire perspective. The one thing that I
will tell you, they're more highly exposed from a revenue
perspective on enterprise spending. Roughly half their revenue come from
commercial businesses. Think about your typical small medium businesses with
over a thousand employees and also your campus networks and
(10:23):
stuff that you know that connects the the PCs in
our desk. That really hasn't pulled back at all. If
I look at other companies, they've actually at least met
expectations and also beaten expectations. And as a tech bell
whether I do think that they're going to benefit as well.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
They also have an ongoing relationship with Nvidia. How has
that helped?
Speaker 6 (10:44):
Yeah, you know, it's it's a it's a new relationship
that they announced that their users conference. If anything, that
actually thrust them deeper into the to the AI story.
A couple of things here. You know, you're not going
to see the multi billion dollar AI deals coming like
a Dell or super Micro, but as corporate enterprises get
(11:10):
into the AI, Cisco and their broad enterprise channel, the
small medium business as well as enterprises that I just
spoke about that will actually help Nvidia get into those
accounts that Nvidia typically cannot get access to. So there
is a channel relationship that helps. That's one and number two,
(11:32):
it is symbiotic because there is a networking component in AI.
Cisco is a networking leader and they can actually get
Nvidia networking gear with Cisco equipment into a lot of
these data center as well as enterprise accounts. That will help.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
This is going to be fun to watch those numbers
coming out on Wednesday. Wou Jinjo, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior technology analyst,
thank you so much for talking with us about this. Take.
Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, we'll look at Europe's
wind energy sector and now it's being impacted by the
Trump administration's roll back on renewables. I'm Amy Morris. This
is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look
(12:25):
ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week.
I'm Amy Morris in Washington. Up later in our program,
we'll look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the
Reserve Bank of Australia but first in the coming days,
the Danish wind turbine maker Vestus will report earnings. It
is expected to solidify its position as Europe's largest wind
(12:45):
turbine manufacturer and the world's second largest by shipments. But
the renewable energy sector faces big political challenges in the
US and in Europe. For more, let's go to London
and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline hepger Amy.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
It's thought that tariff uncertainty will have hit Vestas's orders
in the second quarter, but that may be an issue
largely for Europe because paradoxically, Vestus has seen a surge
in US orders. Has developers rushed to get ahead of
President Trump's deadline to end certain tax credits for new
clean energy projects. When Bloomberg spoke to Vestas's CEO Henrik
(13:24):
Anderson back in May, he had a blunt warning for
Europe either adopt bolder industrial policy or risk watching business
drift elsewhere. Anderson noted that the European Union's fragmented approach
to the sector was jeopardizing the region's chances of achieving
energy independence and competing against other global manufacturers. He emphasized
(13:49):
the need to protect and support the wind energy sector
that Europe has built through its universities and testing sites.
Speaker 7 (13:58):
It's quite interesting and maybe it comes with age. I
don't know, but I'm saying stay calm because there are
some of these things that will be probably spontaneous, probably
fast measures that then will try to find solutions on
over time. And if I look back and also forward,
is we have been and we have created factories and
(14:19):
localization in the US for more than two decades. So
for somebody to sit here and god a really nerve
wrecking Monday morning and now on Friday, we're going to
relocate some of it, that's just not the right thing,
because whatever we do, we still see the demand cycle
for entity. We still see the building and the ramp
up we are doing in the US, and therefore for
(14:39):
that to suddenly be hit by and I often call
it a bit the emotional spirit of this And if
I could encourage still anything out of this, remain a
bit calm, take some responsibility, because direction of setting for
your organization needed right now, because they get off in
the morning, they see news like this and they all
(15:01):
see the world is coming a bit apart. It's being
more fragmented, So I think, actually, as CEOs, one of
the most important thing right now is stick to the direction.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
That was Vestas CEO Henrik Anderson there speaking to Bloomberg's
Ana Edwards critic group to and Guy Johnson back in May.
His comments came as the EU is struggling to cut
carbon emissions whilst more broadly addressing struggling growth and a
crisis of competitiveness. So what are the challenges that Europe's
(15:31):
renewable sector face and what do expect from Vestas in particular.
It's something that I've been discussing with Bloomberg's Climate Change
and Renewable Energy reporter Will Mathis and Bloomberg Intelligence Equity
Research Senior Associate Ales master Andrea Well, can I start
with you?
Speaker 2 (15:50):
What are we.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Expecting from Vestas's earnings?
Speaker 8 (15:54):
Well, I think we're expecting crucially and the first updates
since the changes to the American tax law that was
extremely detrimental to the wind energy sector. It had been
primed for huge growth because of President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act,
and then a lot of the support that the wind
industry was going to get has been paired back. So
(16:16):
now we're going to get an update from Vestas about
what does that mean for wind in the US for
their turbine business there, and also what impact is this
going to have on costs for electricity for the American market.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
So this is the winding back that President Trump has
announced around those tax credits for clean energy projects? What
about them, what we're expecting in terms of orders, especially
for Germany now that it is focused on investment spending.
Speaker 8 (16:47):
Yeah, I think Germany, especially with onshore wind, has been
one of the strongest markets. They've really done a lot
since the energy crisis to restart the onshore wind market
which had been sort of stagnant for a while. And
I think that it's going to be an extremely important
market for Vestas and other wind turbine makers, you know,
(17:09):
in the next for the rest of this decade.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
And let's say that's a little taste of what we're
expecting them from Vestas. How important a business is vest
Us though, actually in Denmark.
Speaker 9 (17:20):
I think it's it's huge. So we're actually in Copenhagen
a couple of weeks ago, and you know, as soon
as you land, as you're landing, you see a bunch
offshore wind farms there's signs everywhere for vestas it's one
of the key businesses in the region and more importantly
just in Europe overall.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
Okay, and the environment then for clean energy firms in
Europe that are doing business with the US given this
kind of anti renewable Trump administration.
Speaker 9 (17:51):
Yeah, So in the US, like we were saying, we
were kind of waiting to see what was going to
happen with the one big, beautiful bill, and now that
we have clarity, we have orders. It announced for Q
two or only about one point one gigawatts, but we
saw that coming in the week since then, we've already
seen a gigawat worth of orders just in the first
month of three q and five hundred megawatts so that
(18:12):
are in the US. So we are seeing that now
we have at least a bit of certainty even though
it's not exactly what we wanted that there's still going
to be a build out in the US.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
So the order flow is coming in and you're starting
to get a bit more visibility on that in terms
of how Europe then is thinking about clean energy policy
given I mean, it's an increasingly sharp elbowed global economy,
isn't it. It's less cooperative, it's more self sufficient. And
this big change in the US. How much influence is
(18:43):
that having. How's Europe thinking about clean energy now?
Speaker 9 (18:46):
So in Europe you can't exactly have something like the
Inflation Production Act where you can give tax and centerves
because it is individual states. Yes, however, there are two
major policy initiatives that have kind of helped spur along
wind and clear and energy growth overall. So you have
Repower EU and the europe Win Action Plan, and those
were really made to kind of cut the red tape
(19:07):
because a lot of what's stopping wind build out is
the bureaucracy to get the permits to get these projects going.
Because overall it only takes one to two years to
build an onshore wind farm. The biggest part is the
bureaucracy piece.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Where's that worst?
Speaker 9 (19:22):
Do you think right now? It's kind of overall, I
can say where it's getting better. So you know, Denmark
is trying to cut a lot of that red tape,
but it's a bit of a double edged sword because
a lot of countries are also scaling back their offshore segment.
We see this in the US. The Biden administration had
a target of thirty gigawatts offshore win by twenty thirty.
(19:42):
The Trump administration basically came in and shut the door
on that and we might only get about five gigawatts.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Okay. Well, in terms of how well Europe's renewable energy
sector is doing in terms of earnings overall this quarter,
have there been big takeaways to you?
Speaker 8 (19:58):
I think that a lot of the noise has been
about what's been happening in the US. It has been
a huge growth market for renewable energy, especially offshore wind
in recent years with the Biden administration, and now that's
been really pulled back. So you know, on the same
day the Vestas reports or Stead, another Danish renewable energy giant,
(20:20):
is going to post their results. They've had huge problems
in the US with cost overruns and now with some
of their projects essentially just being put on ice, and
definitely that they have like seabed leases which are just
areas kind of like a couple of years ago, would
been considered assets and now they're essentially worthless because there's
(20:41):
really no pathway to growth. While there's a Republican administration
in the White House, and that's going to be another
key view into what does this all mean for European
companies that have gone big in the US based on
policy and now are trying to recalibrate and figure out
what their next steps are in this Trump administration.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
Has there been a rush though to get the to
get wind power projects actually done and completed because the
tax credits are going to run out? But it's actually
in some months, it's basically in a year to two
years time, right, twenty twenty seven. When so is there
a rush happening now or has that sort of been abandoned?
Speaker 8 (21:24):
Yeah, I mean that's one of the questions that I'm
going to be asking Henrik Anderson, the CEO of Vestas,
is you know, what are you doing to get these
turbines to your customers as quickly as possible? Because there's
a lot of people who've had developments that maybe they
were thinking, oh, I could build this in the next
five years, and now they're like, oh, I've got like
two years to get this substantially started, and that's going
(21:45):
to really depend on the supply of turbines whether they
can do it or not.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
Yeah, speaking of turbines, I mean I was quite interested
to read that actually there's also an issue around the
energy mix for making this massive bit of equipment, right,
the kind of the energy that it takes to make
the steel that goes into the wind turbine. So sort
of wondering also about the energy efficiency and the sustainable
(22:11):
aspect of vestas his own business or just the business
of these wind turbine makers. What do you think of that, will?
Speaker 8 (22:18):
I mean, wind turbines are big pieces of steel. Steel
is emissions intensive industry, but the emissions that are offset
by using the wind turbine very very quickly compensate for
the emissions inherent in the machines and the transport of
getting them to the market because they're also put on
(22:39):
ships that are powered by oil. But it's something that
those companies want to address. They are looking into like
green steel and other things that could bring down their
carbon footprint, and especially you know, Danish company, sustainability is
very important there. But for now there are emissions, but
it is you know, compared to the benefit of replacing
(23:02):
a qualified power station or a gas power station with
a wind turbine, you know.
Speaker 6 (23:07):
It's.
Speaker 8 (23:09):
Worth it, easily worth it to spend some emissions on
making these things to be able to use them in
the power mix, so the.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Industry kind of factors it in as it were, So
that goes to the energy security issue for Europe. Europe's
recently only had this scare around Iran threatening to close
the Straight of hor Moves and that would affect energy
supplies in Europe. There's also pressure on anyone buying Russian energy.
How big a concern is it around the energy infrastructure
(23:40):
that Europe has energy supplies currently?
Speaker 9 (23:44):
Yeah, I think it's a massive focal point for why
the clean Andrey transition is so important. Yes, it's good
for the environment, but energy security is fundamental. We saw
Europe stepping up with repower EU after Russian vidd Ukraine.
The threat of the closing the sh trade of horror
Moves is maybe not an immediate threat for Europe because
only four percent of gas it comes from Qatar, but
(24:07):
twenty percent of flows go through that strait of Hormuves,
so it would make any imports from other countries more expensive.
And then I think the third piece of that fundamental
part of why the transition is so important is the
build out of AI data centers.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Yeah, absolutely, because how power intensive they are, aren't they? Well,
my thanks to Bloomberg's Climate Change and Renewable Energy reporter
Will Maths and Bloomberg Intelligence Equity Research Senior associate Alessio
Master Andrea for speaking to me, and we will have
full coverage and analysis of Vessus's second quarter earnings for
you here on Bloomberg. I'm Caroline Hepkee here in London.
(24:44):
You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak
here at beginning at six am in London. That's one
am on Wall Street.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Amy, Thank you, Caroline. Now coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend,
we'll look ahead to an interest rate decision from the
Reserve Bank of Australia. I'm Amy Morris. This is Bloomberg.
(25:11):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at
the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm
Amy Morris in Washington. One month ago, the Reserve Bank
of Australia made one of its most surprising decisions in
recent memory by doing absolutely nothing. The Central Bank opted
to hold steady, much to the chagrin of OSSI economists.
(25:33):
For more on what they may do this time around,
let's go to Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett Amy.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Governor Michelle Bullock faced tough questions following the RBA's July decision,
including whether the central bank could betrayed households expecting a
rate cut. Bullock said the decision was about timing of
a move rather than the direction. So what's in store
when RBA policymakers meet next week? Let's take a closer look.
(26:00):
We are joined by Rebecca Jones, Bloomberg News Managing editor
for Australia and New Zealand, also the host of the
Bloomberg Australia podcast. Rebecca joins us from our bureau in Melbourne.
So looking ahead to next week, we raise the question,
are we in for another curve ball from the RBA?
Speaker 10 (26:19):
Well, Charlie Gooday, and you're absolutely right. The RBA stunned everybody,
well almost everybody last month by holding interest rates here
in Australia. It was largely an unexpected move. So when
we start thinking about next week's call, there's really two
massive pieces of the puzzle to consider. Well for any
central bank, of course, but for the RBA it is
(26:42):
the labor market here and also how inflation's doing now.
Back in July, we only had a partial read on
inflation in Australia, and I was actually suggesting that it
was pretty weak, weaker than thought, and that got markets
and a lot of people here jumping on the idea
that hey, well that's going to be enough to pull
the Reserve Bank over the line. On the other hand,
(27:02):
the labor market data one month ago suggested that the
unemployment rate was below projections from the RBA. Ultimately, the
RBA's held the rate. But looking ahead now to next week,
we've got more information, right, like, we've got a full
read on inflation and that's backed up what happened last month.
And we also have the jobs data and that is
(27:24):
telling quite a different story too. Just thirty days ago,
we've had a couple of revisions there, Charlie, and that's
indicating that the unemployment rate is now at four point
three percent, which is the highest in a couple of
years for Australia. I know that that number to people
listening around the world might not seem that bad, but
here we've got an unemployment rate that's not only trending high,
(27:46):
but it's also above what our Central Bank has been projecting.
So it does look like it's not going to be
the curveball of last month, and I just checked the
Bloomberg and all twenty seven economists that we survey are
predicted that we're going to get that twenty five basis
point cut.
Speaker 4 (28:03):
All right, So that is the August decision. What's the
trajectory from here specifically then onto the November meeting.
Speaker 10 (28:11):
So the market at the moment has been predicting at
least one more rate cut for twenty twenty five. That's
where it stands today. That may well change after we
hear what Governor Michelle Bullock has to say next Tuesday,
but for the time being, markets are pricing in at
least one more cut for twenty twenty five. It is
(28:32):
really just about the timing and the nuance. And one
other thing that is brand new last month is that
we now know how each of the members of the
Reserve Bank Board are voting. Last month it was a
vote of six people saying hold out of the nine
people on the board, and that may well sway the
(28:53):
projections from economists going forward for the rest of twenty
twenty five, depending on how the many members vote come Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (29:02):
Now, what about major Australian banks CBA, Westpac, NAB and
a NZ. Are they pretty much in agreement on what
to expect for next week's meeting.
Speaker 10 (29:12):
Well, the thing about the Big four banks, and indeed
we call them the Big four banks here and will
add Macquarie in as well they're a huge Australian company,
is that most mortgage holders, most of the mortgage business
here in Australia is on a variable interest right, and
that's quite unique to Australia, certainly the opposite in the US.
So whenever there is a hike or indeed a cut,
(29:35):
the banks are very quick to pass that on whether
it's good news or bad news for the person holding
the mortgage at the end of that So for the
most part, banks had a cracking year in twenty twenty four.
They really have already priced in these kind of fluctuations
from Australia Central Bank into their forecast for the coming year.
(29:56):
So no surprises really, I would say from the CU
of the Big four bank, I would I has it
a guess they do have their own economists as well,
that they're one of the twenty seven that are predicting
the cut on Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Rebecca, how closely does the RBA mirror what's happening with
sentiments surrounding the Federal Reserve in the United States.
Speaker 10 (30:18):
That's a really interesting question. And I think that we've
seen since the since Michelle Bullock has taken the reins
here in Australia, which you know, she's been in the
job for quite a while, that we are really doing
our own thing, marching by the beat of our own drum.
A lot of other countries are doing that. We have
seen globally less group think from our central bankers. They
(30:40):
are really splitting on their philosophy around good policy. We've
seen the Federal Reserve has stood part throughout the first
half of twenty twenty five, while others like the European
Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, etc.
All easing in recent months, and Australia in that two
we've had the two cuts already in twenty twenty five.
(31:04):
So is there direct relationship there less so than perhaps historically.
Speaker 4 (31:10):
Big picture, how are every day ausies feeling about all
of this? How's the Australian economy holding up, specifically in
terms of the labor market.
Speaker 10 (31:19):
Well, what we can see is that consumers who participants
in the labor market, you know, they're not a very
happy bunch at the moment. And what's showing up in
things like retail and household spending data is what consumers
are doing, and that is that they're not spending. They're
going out and earning their wage, but they're not spending
(31:40):
it in ways that perhaps they used to be consumers.
When you ask them how things are going, one of
the things that they cite is the cost of everyday things.
Aside from things like fuel and core food items, households
are still really really struggle. So to sort of set
(32:01):
the scene for you a little bit, the median price
of a house in Sydney is one point seven million
Aussie dollars. It's up four point two percent this year,
so that's roughly one point one million in US dollars.
And we're not talking more to front homes here, Charlie.
These are modest, modest dwellings. So it's really showing up
(32:24):
in terms of discretionary spending, where people are choosing to
use the extra pennies that they they have. It's most
likely going into the essentials like paying the mortgage, covering education,
the cost of childcare and so on.
Speaker 4 (32:40):
Now Australia is an export driven economy, and there's one
economy that's closely monitored in Australia that is China. What
are the underlying assumptions being made about the Chinese economy.
Speaker 10 (32:53):
So there has been a trend over the last couple
of years around different ways of accessing growth the Chinese
economy away from the traditional manufacturing route, and that has
real world implications for our economy here in Australia being
such a resource rich exporter, and our primary destination for
(33:15):
those exports, along with many other countries around the world,
is of course China. So we saw some you know,
interesting patterns occur with the price of iron ore throughout
the pandemic, and you know, certainly in the last five
or so years that's come off a lot with the
trade tensions between Australia and China forcing Australia to seek
(33:38):
alternative paths for some of these exports. I think what
was proven was that there is other places for these
exports to be sent to. But it's certainly our key
trading partner, China, and one that you know, as evidenced
by Albany'ese's recent six day trip to China, is going
to be very very important for us. Going forward.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
Rebecca, thank you very much for taking time to break
this all down for US. Rebecca Jones, Bloomberg's managing editor
for Australia and New Zealand, also hosts of the Bloomberg
Australia podcast We Move Next. To Trade and Chips, President
Trump says he will impose a one hundred percent tariff
on semiconductor imports, though he would exempt companies moving production
(34:23):
back to the United States. Such a move would place
a heavy strain on the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor, Tokyo
Electron and sk Heinex. And For more on the potential impact,
we heard from Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva
Technology Futures. She spoke with Bloomberg's Haslinda Ahmen in Singapore.
Speaker 11 (34:44):
Emily's all aboud bringing chip production back home. The thing
is the US is offshore that production to Asia since
the nineteen sixties.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
It doesn't have the ability, the.
Speaker 11 (34:55):
Capacity to do it, and it takes years to build
new chip fat.
Speaker 12 (35:00):
That's absolutely right. With one exception, which is sort of
uncomfortable for people who don't really like the direction of
travel right now with US policy, is that TSMC's production
facilities in Arizona are actually beating expectations, and so I
do think the administration has been relatively clear eyed about
the timeline. That being said, they're willing to apply maximum
(35:23):
pressure to the likes of TSMC in order to expedite
what's already a very fast time frame. Again, I do
think there will be carve outs to extend the timeline
of implementation. If you talk to a lot of industry analysts,
I think the four to five to six year timeframe
is more menable for the industry. We also have to
remember that this will directly confront one of the administration's
(35:47):
other hallmark policies, and this was announced two weeks ago
in the AI Action Plan, And here the White House
is saying very publicly that it wants to prioritize AI
build out, it wants to double down on US infrastructure,
and very interestingly, it also wants to package a lot
of that AI tech stact into separate bundles that it
(36:08):
can then export abroad. It of course will need affordable
inputs at the baseline in order to be able to
export these packages, and very interested to see what the
ultimate price impact is on that particular corner of the
administration's policy.
Speaker 11 (36:25):
And emily some say it is about quantity, it's also
about quality, and when it comes to both of them
Taiwan and South Korea asapause, what do you make off
perhaps equality and quantity that can be expected from the US.
Speaker 12 (36:39):
A couple of weeks ago and the lead up to
the expiration of the reciprocal tariff pause, the Administration has
entered into these arrangements where foreign partners seem to be
under the assumption that they would only be subject to
a fifteen percent teriff freight, and that includes a lot
of these sectoral products like semiconductors. So one question will
actually be whether or not this announcement induces further development
(37:04):
on shore by those countries, or whether or not we'll
have to explore further negotiations. I also will note that
the United States actually does not import a lot of
semi conductors directly. Most semi conductors actually enter the United
States in finished goods. So these are items like iPhones
or laptops, and so it'll be interesting to see how
(37:27):
the Administration starts to calculate the actual value and whether
or not each finished item will be subject to that
one hundred percent care free.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures, in
conversation with Bloomberg's has Linda Ahmen. I'm Charlie Pelacascius weekdays
for the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get
your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
Amy, Thank you, Charlie. And that does it for this
edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning,
five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets
over sea and the news you need to start your day.
I Mammie Morris, stay with us. Top stories and global
business headlines are coming up right now
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the
top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors
all over the world. Straight Ahead on the program, a
look at some key inflation and retail sales data in
the US. I'm Maybe Morris in Washington.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
I'm callin hetkit Hay in London, where we're looking at
Europe's wind energy sector with the Trump administration's roll back
on maneuables.
Speaker 4 (00:32):
I'm Charlie Pellock with a look at what we can
expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia when they issue
their August Great decision next week.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg
eleven three zero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC,
Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London,
Sirius XM one twenty one, and around the world on
Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Opp Good day to you. I'm Amy Morris. We begin
today's program with some key economic data in the US.
We get USCPI data on Tuesday, the Producer Price Index
is released on Thursday and retail sales data on Friday.
How is this data going to impact FED policy as
(01:23):
we move forward? For more, we are joined by Michael McKee,
Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent Mike always a pleasure
want to start with PPI and take a peek back
at this past week which saw some weaknesses revealed in
the PMI data for July, plus reciprocal tariffs kicked in.
With all of that in mind, what should we be
(01:44):
looking for from the PPI coming up?
Speaker 5 (01:47):
Well, we're going to be looking, certainly in terms of
PPI at whether we have nascent inflation coming from tariffs,
and we'll be looking at the things within the producer
price indix that are considered intermediate goods, things that companies
buy to make other things. And if we see prices
going up there, which we should, then it'll be a
(02:09):
question of how much do they go up? Does it
suggest that we're going to have an outbreak of inflation?
And when you look at the CPI you're going to
have the same sort of questions. But therefore finished goods
for things that consumers are buying, what is it telling
us about the tariff impact on the economy, and that's
why I'll have a big effect for the Fed. It
(02:30):
will matter a lot to the Fed, more than we've
had most CPI and PPI indicators this year because they
put everything on hold waiting to see what the inflation
outcome is from tariffs.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
So these numbers are going to have more of an impact.
Do you think maybe than normally historically they would.
Speaker 5 (02:48):
Yes, they will have an impact one of two ways.
Either they will show inflation is picking up, which will
lead the Fed to be more cautious going into their
next meeting, or they'll show that things are pretty quiet,
as the President insists, and the idea that the jobs
report we had last week shows weakness in the economy
(03:12):
would give them more license to cut rates.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Should we bring up the issue of stagflation? Is there
any risk of a stagflation in our future?
Speaker 5 (03:21):
Well, that's kind of what we're looking at at the
moment now. The problem is is people tend to think
of stagflation in the way we had it in the
nineteen seventies, where inflation was very high and growth was
very low. But it can just basically mean that the
economy is not growing particularly fast and inflation is picking
up a bit, so you could have maybe four percent
(03:45):
inflation or three and a half percent inflation and growth
of a half percentage point or something like that, and
it would still qualify as stagflation. And that's kind of
what the data are pointing at right now. And we
say that because of the jobs the fact that they
were so weak, as a suggestion that maybe consumers won't
be spending as much money and the economy will slow down.
(04:09):
And obviously we're watching the CPIPPI to see if there
is the flation part of stagflation exactly.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Let's turn to the retail sales figures, then are we shopping?
What are you watching for from that? Because everything you
just explained tells me it's sort of all dovetails.
Speaker 5 (04:25):
Well, it's going to be a kind of a weird one,
as July usually is, because July we have the Amazon
Prime Days and the other retailers like Walmart who match
their discounts, and so you could get more people buying
stuff than we normally would expect under the economic conditions
(04:48):
that we have. It may not reflect yet that people
are concerned about the economy and pulling back on their spending,
because everybody likes a deal.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Forgive me, but Amazon Prime Days really have that much
of an impact they can.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
The way they calculate all of this is through dollar volume,
and the Prime days and the other discounters would be
charging less. But what ends up happening is a lot
of people buy stuff they weren't intending to buy that
isn't necessarily on sale, and so you do get an increase,
(05:24):
particularly in the category of online shopping, and so that's
something to keep an eye on. We also are looking
always looking at gasoline prices, which came down and then
started going back up again, so those will have an
impact as well. And we had better than expected auto
sales in July, so that may also suggest that we're
(05:46):
going to have a little more strength in retail sales
than we might otherwise have expected.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Well, Mike, the President did fire the head of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the concern there is that
any suggestion of political bias can and destroy trust, especially
in these numbers. How important is it for the American people, economists,
those who watch this data to have trust in these
numbers that we're going to see.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
Oh, it's vital because we rely on them for so much.
It's not just me sitting here reading the eco go
page on the Bloomberg. They're used in adjusting contracts, the
cost of living. Social security companies make plans on investment
based on what they think the inflation rate is going
to be. So they're very important numbers, and obviously they
(06:32):
matter a lot to the FED, and so being able
to believe in them is very important. Now we know
that the numbers have become a little more less accurate,
but sort of the margin of error has widened because
they're having much fewer responses to their surveys, and they've
(06:56):
also cut back the government's Congress and the presidents of
back on spending on these numbers. So it's been difficult
for the agencies, but they do their best to produce
the gold standard of data, and I don't think anybody
is looking for that to change the way they've set
it up. The commissioner of the BLS doesn't get into
(07:19):
the report, so the fact that the President fired somebody
who's not ultimately actually responsible for the report won't make
much of a change. So I don't think Wall Street's
too worried yet. It would be if somebody came in
and started making major changes in the way they compile
the data that you'd have to worry.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Okay, and we're going to leave it there. Michael McKee,
Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, Always a pleasure. Thank
you so much for your insight. All right, we move
next to corporate earnings from the networking bellwether Cisco. They
report earnings after the market close on Wednesday. For more,
we're joined by Woujin Hoo, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology analyst.
Woujin what are you looking for from Cisco's earnings report?
Speaker 6 (07:58):
Yeah, thanks for having me on. Look. I am actually
looking for a fantastic quarter coming out of coming from Cisco.
There's a couple of high level things that we need
to take into consideration. The enterprise it spending has been
a little bit more resilient than I had anticipated, so
they should easily or I believe they should come at
least come in the high end of the fourteen point
(08:21):
five to fourteen point seven billion dollar guidance for the quarter.
But more importantly, they've actually navigated their tariff situation pretty well,
so there should be you know, minimal downside risk to
earning expectations heading into the print. But more importantly, I
think the focus going into the quarter is going to
(08:42):
be more along the lines of their guidance for fiscal
twenty twenty six. You know, their long term guidance there
is four to six percent, and they have a lot
of tailwinds to help them go to the top end
of that guidance range.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Yeah, I want to ask about that, how they're able
to maintain stable demand and steady growth in this current
AI environment because this is the pool everybody's jumping into.
So how can Cisco maintain all of that set itself apart?
Is it navigating their own tariff deal or is there
more to it?
Speaker 6 (09:16):
Well, you know, one one of the things that Cisco
has done over the past several years since since the
COVID period is essentially distribute their supply chain to be
less concentrated outside of China. But a couple of things
that do help them. They do have some Mexico manufacturing,
so they can get some cover under the U. S.
(09:39):
M c A, so some of their products are going
to be exempt from tariffs. And I think some of
the new tariff rules that came into you know, the
the August first deadline, that's going to help them actually
make their products a little bit more favorable from a
from a tariff perspective, So net net, they'll they'll be
(10:01):
fine from a tire perspective. The one thing that I
will tell you, they're more highly exposed from a revenue
perspective on enterprise spending. Roughly half their revenue come from
commercial businesses. Think about your typical small medium businesses with
over a thousand employees and also your campus networks and
(10:23):
stuff that you know that connects the the PCs in
our desk. That really hasn't pulled back at all. If
I look at other companies, they've actually at least met
expectations and also beaten expectations. And as a tech bell
whether I do think that they're going to benefit as well.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
They also have an ongoing relationship with Nvidia. How has
that helped?
Speaker 6 (10:44):
Yeah, you know, it's it's a it's a new relationship
that they announced that their users conference. If anything, that
actually thrust them deeper into the to the AI story.
A couple of things here. You know, you're not going
to see the multi billion dollar AI deals coming like
a Dell or super Micro, but as corporate enterprises get
(11:10):
into the AI, Cisco and their broad enterprise channel, the
small medium business as well as enterprises that I just
spoke about that will actually help Nvidia get into those
accounts that Nvidia typically cannot get access to. So there
is a channel relationship that helps. That's one and number two,
(11:32):
it is symbiotic because there is a networking component in AI.
Cisco is a networking leader and they can actually get
Nvidia networking gear with Cisco equipment into a lot of
these data center as well as enterprise accounts. That will help.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
This is going to be fun to watch those numbers
coming out on Wednesday. Wou Jinjo, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior technology analyst,
thank you so much for talking with us about this. Take.
Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, we'll look at Europe's
wind energy sector and now it's being impacted by the
Trump administration's roll back on renewables. I'm Amy Morris. This
is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look
(12:25):
ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week.
I'm Amy Morris in Washington. Up later in our program,
we'll look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the
Reserve Bank of Australia but first in the coming days,
the Danish wind turbine maker Vestus will report earnings. It
is expected to solidify its position as Europe's largest wind
(12:45):
turbine manufacturer and the world's second largest by shipments. But
the renewable energy sector faces big political challenges in the
US and in Europe. For more, let's go to London
and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline hepger Amy.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
It's thought that tariff uncertainty will have hit Vestas's orders
in the second quarter, but that may be an issue
largely for Europe because paradoxically, Vestus has seen a surge
in US orders. Has developers rushed to get ahead of
President Trump's deadline to end certain tax credits for new
clean energy projects. When Bloomberg spoke to Vestas's CEO Henrik
(13:24):
Anderson back in May, he had a blunt warning for
Europe either adopt bolder industrial policy or risk watching business
drift elsewhere. Anderson noted that the European Union's fragmented approach
to the sector was jeopardizing the region's chances of achieving
energy independence and competing against other global manufacturers. He emphasized
(13:49):
the need to protect and support the wind energy sector
that Europe has built through its universities and testing sites.
Speaker 7 (13:58):
It's quite interesting and maybe it comes with age. I
don't know, but I'm saying stay calm because there are
some of these things that will be probably spontaneous, probably
fast measures that then will try to find solutions on
over time. And if I look back and also forward,
is we have been and we have created factories and
(14:19):
localization in the US for more than two decades. So
for somebody to sit here and god a really nerve
wrecking Monday morning and now on Friday, we're going to
relocate some of it, that's just not the right thing,
because whatever we do, we still see the demand cycle
for entity. We still see the building and the ramp
up we are doing in the US, and therefore for
(14:39):
that to suddenly be hit by and I often call
it a bit the emotional spirit of this And if
I could encourage still anything out of this, remain a
bit calm, take some responsibility, because direction of setting for
your organization needed right now, because they get off in
the morning, they see news like this and they all
(15:01):
see the world is coming a bit apart. It's being
more fragmented, So I think, actually, as CEOs, one of
the most important thing right now is stick to the direction.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
That was Vestas CEO Henrik Anderson there speaking to Bloomberg's
Ana Edwards critic group to and Guy Johnson back in May.
His comments came as the EU is struggling to cut
carbon emissions whilst more broadly addressing struggling growth and a
crisis of competitiveness. So what are the challenges that Europe's
(15:31):
renewable sector face and what do expect from Vestas in particular.
It's something that I've been discussing with Bloomberg's Climate Change
and Renewable Energy reporter Will Mathis and Bloomberg Intelligence Equity
Research Senior Associate Ales master Andrea Well, can I start
with you?
Speaker 2 (15:50):
What are we.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Expecting from Vestas's earnings?
Speaker 8 (15:54):
Well, I think we're expecting crucially and the first updates
since the changes to the American tax law that was
extremely detrimental to the wind energy sector. It had been
primed for huge growth because of President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act,
and then a lot of the support that the wind
industry was going to get has been paired back. So
(16:16):
now we're going to get an update from Vestas about
what does that mean for wind in the US for
their turbine business there, and also what impact is this
going to have on costs for electricity for the American market.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
So this is the winding back that President Trump has
announced around those tax credits for clean energy projects? What
about them, what we're expecting in terms of orders, especially
for Germany now that it is focused on investment spending.
Speaker 8 (16:47):
Yeah, I think Germany, especially with onshore wind, has been
one of the strongest markets. They've really done a lot
since the energy crisis to restart the onshore wind market
which had been sort of stagnant for a while. And
I think that it's going to be an extremely important
market for Vestas and other wind turbine makers, you know,
(17:09):
in the next for the rest of this decade.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
And let's say that's a little taste of what we're
expecting them from Vestas. How important a business is vest
Us though, actually in Denmark.
Speaker 9 (17:20):
I think it's it's huge. So we're actually in Copenhagen
a couple of weeks ago, and you know, as soon
as you land, as you're landing, you see a bunch
offshore wind farms there's signs everywhere for vestas it's one
of the key businesses in the region and more importantly
just in Europe overall.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
Okay, and the environment then for clean energy firms in
Europe that are doing business with the US given this
kind of anti renewable Trump administration.
Speaker 9 (17:51):
Yeah, So in the US, like we were saying, we
were kind of waiting to see what was going to
happen with the one big, beautiful bill, and now that
we have clarity, we have orders. It announced for Q
two or only about one point one gigawatts, but we
saw that coming in the week since then, we've already
seen a gigawat worth of orders just in the first
month of three q and five hundred megawatts so that
(18:12):
are in the US. So we are seeing that now
we have at least a bit of certainty even though
it's not exactly what we wanted that there's still going
to be a build out in the US.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
So the order flow is coming in and you're starting
to get a bit more visibility on that in terms
of how Europe then is thinking about clean energy policy
given I mean, it's an increasingly sharp elbowed global economy,
isn't it. It's less cooperative, it's more self sufficient. And
this big change in the US. How much influence is
(18:43):
that having. How's Europe thinking about clean energy now?
Speaker 9 (18:46):
So in Europe you can't exactly have something like the
Inflation Production Act where you can give tax and centerves
because it is individual states. Yes, however, there are two
major policy initiatives that have kind of helped spur along
wind and clear and energy growth overall. So you have
Repower EU and the europe Win Action Plan, and those
were really made to kind of cut the red tape
(19:07):
because a lot of what's stopping wind build out is
the bureaucracy to get the permits to get these projects going.
Because overall it only takes one to two years to
build an onshore wind farm. The biggest part is the
bureaucracy piece.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Where's that worst?
Speaker 9 (19:22):
Do you think right now? It's kind of overall, I
can say where it's getting better. So you know, Denmark
is trying to cut a lot of that red tape,
but it's a bit of a double edged sword because
a lot of countries are also scaling back their offshore segment.
We see this in the US. The Biden administration had
a target of thirty gigawatts offshore win by twenty thirty.
(19:42):
The Trump administration basically came in and shut the door
on that and we might only get about five gigawatts.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Okay. Well, in terms of how well Europe's renewable energy
sector is doing in terms of earnings overall this quarter,
have there been big takeaways to you?
Speaker 8 (19:58):
I think that a lot of the noise has been
about what's been happening in the US. It has been
a huge growth market for renewable energy, especially offshore wind
in recent years with the Biden administration, and now that's
been really pulled back. So you know, on the same
day the Vestas reports or Stead, another Danish renewable energy giant,
(20:20):
is going to post their results. They've had huge problems
in the US with cost overruns and now with some
of their projects essentially just being put on ice, and
definitely that they have like seabed leases which are just
areas kind of like a couple of years ago, would
been considered assets and now they're essentially worthless because there's
(20:41):
really no pathway to growth. While there's a Republican administration
in the White House, and that's going to be another
key view into what does this all mean for European
companies that have gone big in the US based on
policy and now are trying to recalibrate and figure out
what their next steps are in this Trump administration.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
Has there been a rush though to get the to
get wind power projects actually done and completed because the
tax credits are going to run out? But it's actually
in some months, it's basically in a year to two
years time, right, twenty twenty seven. When so is there
a rush happening now or has that sort of been abandoned?
Speaker 8 (21:24):
Yeah, I mean that's one of the questions that I'm
going to be asking Henrik Anderson, the CEO of Vestas,
is you know, what are you doing to get these
turbines to your customers as quickly as possible? Because there's
a lot of people who've had developments that maybe they
were thinking, oh, I could build this in the next
five years, and now they're like, oh, I've got like
two years to get this substantially started, and that's going
(21:45):
to really depend on the supply of turbines whether they
can do it or not.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
Yeah, speaking of turbines, I mean I was quite interested
to read that actually there's also an issue around the
energy mix for making this massive bit of equipment, right,
the kind of the energy that it takes to make
the steel that goes into the wind turbine. So sort
of wondering also about the energy efficiency and the sustainable
(22:11):
aspect of vestas his own business or just the business
of these wind turbine makers. What do you think of that, will?
Speaker 8 (22:18):
I mean, wind turbines are big pieces of steel. Steel
is emissions intensive industry, but the emissions that are offset
by using the wind turbine very very quickly compensate for
the emissions inherent in the machines and the transport of
getting them to the market because they're also put on
(22:39):
ships that are powered by oil. But it's something that
those companies want to address. They are looking into like
green steel and other things that could bring down their
carbon footprint, and especially you know, Danish company, sustainability is
very important there. But for now there are emissions, but
it is you know, compared to the benefit of replacing
(23:02):
a qualified power station or a gas power station with
a wind turbine, you know.
Speaker 6 (23:07):
It's.
Speaker 8 (23:09):
Worth it, easily worth it to spend some emissions on
making these things to be able to use them in
the power mix, so the.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Industry kind of factors it in as it were, So
that goes to the energy security issue for Europe. Europe's
recently only had this scare around Iran threatening to close
the Straight of hor Moves and that would affect energy
supplies in Europe. There's also pressure on anyone buying Russian energy.
How big a concern is it around the energy infrastructure
(23:40):
that Europe has energy supplies currently?
Speaker 9 (23:44):
Yeah, I think it's a massive focal point for why
the clean Andrey transition is so important. Yes, it's good
for the environment, but energy security is fundamental. We saw
Europe stepping up with repower EU after Russian vidd Ukraine.
The threat of the closing the sh trade of horror
Moves is maybe not an immediate threat for Europe because
only four percent of gas it comes from Qatar, but
(24:07):
twenty percent of flows go through that strait of Hormuves,
so it would make any imports from other countries more expensive.
And then I think the third piece of that fundamental
part of why the transition is so important is the
build out of AI data centers.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Yeah, absolutely, because how power intensive they are, aren't they? Well,
my thanks to Bloomberg's Climate Change and Renewable Energy reporter
Will Maths and Bloomberg Intelligence Equity Research Senior associate Alessio
Master Andrea for speaking to me, and we will have
full coverage and analysis of Vessus's second quarter earnings for
you here on Bloomberg. I'm Caroline Hepkee here in London.
(24:44):
You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak
here at beginning at six am in London. That's one
am on Wall Street.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Amy, Thank you, Caroline. Now coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend,
we'll look ahead to an interest rate decision from the
Reserve Bank of Australia. I'm Amy Morris. This is Bloomberg.
(25:11):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at
the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm
Amy Morris in Washington. One month ago, the Reserve Bank
of Australia made one of its most surprising decisions in
recent memory by doing absolutely nothing. The Central Bank opted
to hold steady, much to the chagrin of OSSI economists.
(25:33):
For more on what they may do this time around,
let's go to Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett Amy.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Governor Michelle Bullock faced tough questions following the RBA's July decision,
including whether the central bank could betrayed households expecting a
rate cut. Bullock said the decision was about timing of
a move rather than the direction. So what's in store
when RBA policymakers meet next week? Let's take a closer look.
(26:00):
We are joined by Rebecca Jones, Bloomberg News Managing editor
for Australia and New Zealand, also the host of the
Bloomberg Australia podcast. Rebecca joins us from our bureau in Melbourne.
So looking ahead to next week, we raise the question,
are we in for another curve ball from the RBA?
Speaker 10 (26:19):
Well, Charlie Gooday, and you're absolutely right. The RBA stunned everybody,
well almost everybody last month by holding interest rates here
in Australia. It was largely an unexpected move. So when
we start thinking about next week's call, there's really two
massive pieces of the puzzle to consider. Well for any
central bank, of course, but for the RBA it is
(26:42):
the labor market here and also how inflation's doing now.
Back in July, we only had a partial read on
inflation in Australia, and I was actually suggesting that it
was pretty weak, weaker than thought, and that got markets
and a lot of people here jumping on the idea
that hey, well that's going to be enough to pull
the Reserve Bank over the line. On the other hand,
(27:02):
the labor market data one month ago suggested that the
unemployment rate was below projections from the RBA. Ultimately, the
RBA's held the rate. But looking ahead now to next week,
we've got more information, right, like, we've got a full
read on inflation and that's backed up what happened last month.
And we also have the jobs data and that is
(27:24):
telling quite a different story too. Just thirty days ago,
we've had a couple of revisions there, Charlie, and that's
indicating that the unemployment rate is now at four point
three percent, which is the highest in a couple of
years for Australia. I know that that number to people
listening around the world might not seem that bad, but
here we've got an unemployment rate that's not only trending high,
(27:46):
but it's also above what our Central Bank has been projecting.
So it does look like it's not going to be
the curveball of last month, and I just checked the
Bloomberg and all twenty seven economists that we survey are
predicted that we're going to get that twenty five basis
point cut.
Speaker 4 (28:03):
All right, So that is the August decision. What's the
trajectory from here specifically then onto the November meeting.
Speaker 10 (28:11):
So the market at the moment has been predicting at
least one more rate cut for twenty twenty five. That's
where it stands today. That may well change after we
hear what Governor Michelle Bullock has to say next Tuesday,
but for the time being, markets are pricing in at
least one more cut for twenty twenty five. It is
(28:32):
really just about the timing and the nuance. And one
other thing that is brand new last month is that
we now know how each of the members of the
Reserve Bank Board are voting. Last month it was a
vote of six people saying hold out of the nine
people on the board, and that may well sway the
(28:53):
projections from economists going forward for the rest of twenty
twenty five, depending on how the many members vote come Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (29:02):
Now, what about major Australian banks CBA, Westpac, NAB and
a NZ. Are they pretty much in agreement on what
to expect for next week's meeting.
Speaker 10 (29:12):
Well, the thing about the Big four banks, and indeed
we call them the Big four banks here and will
add Macquarie in as well they're a huge Australian company,
is that most mortgage holders, most of the mortgage business
here in Australia is on a variable interest right, and
that's quite unique to Australia, certainly the opposite in the US.
So whenever there is a hike or indeed a cut,
(29:35):
the banks are very quick to pass that on whether
it's good news or bad news for the person holding
the mortgage at the end of that So for the
most part, banks had a cracking year in twenty twenty four.
They really have already priced in these kind of fluctuations
from Australia Central Bank into their forecast for the coming year.
(29:56):
So no surprises really, I would say from the CU
of the Big four bank, I would I has it
a guess they do have their own economists as well,
that they're one of the twenty seven that are predicting
the cut on Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Rebecca, how closely does the RBA mirror what's happening with
sentiments surrounding the Federal Reserve in the United States.
Speaker 10 (30:18):
That's a really interesting question. And I think that we've
seen since the since Michelle Bullock has taken the reins
here in Australia, which you know, she's been in the
job for quite a while, that we are really doing
our own thing, marching by the beat of our own drum.
A lot of other countries are doing that. We have
seen globally less group think from our central bankers. They
(30:40):
are really splitting on their philosophy around good policy. We've
seen the Federal Reserve has stood part throughout the first
half of twenty twenty five, while others like the European
Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, etc.
All easing in recent months, and Australia in that two
we've had the two cuts already in twenty twenty five.
(31:04):
So is there direct relationship there less so than perhaps historically.
Speaker 4 (31:10):
Big picture, how are every day ausies feeling about all
of this? How's the Australian economy holding up, specifically in
terms of the labor market.
Speaker 10 (31:19):
Well, what we can see is that consumers who participants
in the labor market, you know, they're not a very
happy bunch at the moment. And what's showing up in
things like retail and household spending data is what consumers
are doing, and that is that they're not spending. They're
going out and earning their wage, but they're not spending
(31:40):
it in ways that perhaps they used to be consumers.
When you ask them how things are going, one of
the things that they cite is the cost of everyday things.
Aside from things like fuel and core food items, households
are still really really struggle. So to sort of set
(32:01):
the scene for you a little bit, the median price
of a house in Sydney is one point seven million
Aussie dollars. It's up four point two percent this year,
so that's roughly one point one million in US dollars.
And we're not talking more to front homes here, Charlie.
These are modest, modest dwellings. So it's really showing up
(32:24):
in terms of discretionary spending, where people are choosing to
use the extra pennies that they they have. It's most
likely going into the essentials like paying the mortgage, covering education,
the cost of childcare and so on.
Speaker 4 (32:40):
Now Australia is an export driven economy, and there's one
economy that's closely monitored in Australia that is China. What
are the underlying assumptions being made about the Chinese economy.
Speaker 10 (32:53):
So there has been a trend over the last couple
of years around different ways of accessing growth the Chinese
economy away from the traditional manufacturing route, and that has
real world implications for our economy here in Australia being
such a resource rich exporter, and our primary destination for
(33:15):
those exports, along with many other countries around the world,
is of course China. So we saw some you know,
interesting patterns occur with the price of iron ore throughout
the pandemic, and you know, certainly in the last five
or so years that's come off a lot with the
trade tensions between Australia and China forcing Australia to seek
(33:38):
alternative paths for some of these exports. I think what
was proven was that there is other places for these
exports to be sent to. But it's certainly our key
trading partner, China, and one that you know, as evidenced
by Albany'ese's recent six day trip to China, is going
to be very very important for us. Going forward.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
Rebecca, thank you very much for taking time to break
this all down for US. Rebecca Jones, Bloomberg's managing editor
for Australia and New Zealand, also hosts of the Bloomberg
Australia podcast We Move Next. To Trade and Chips, President
Trump says he will impose a one hundred percent tariff
on semiconductor imports, though he would exempt companies moving production
(34:23):
back to the United States. Such a move would place
a heavy strain on the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor, Tokyo
Electron and sk Heinex. And For more on the potential impact,
we heard from Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva
Technology Futures. She spoke with Bloomberg's Haslinda Ahmen in Singapore.
Speaker 11 (34:44):
Emily's all aboud bringing chip production back home. The thing
is the US is offshore that production to Asia since
the nineteen sixties.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
It doesn't have the ability, the.
Speaker 11 (34:55):
Capacity to do it, and it takes years to build
new chip fat.
Speaker 12 (35:00):
That's absolutely right. With one exception, which is sort of
uncomfortable for people who don't really like the direction of
travel right now with US policy, is that TSMC's production
facilities in Arizona are actually beating expectations, and so I
do think the administration has been relatively clear eyed about
the timeline. That being said, they're willing to apply maximum
(35:23):
pressure to the likes of TSMC in order to expedite
what's already a very fast time frame. Again, I do
think there will be carve outs to extend the timeline
of implementation. If you talk to a lot of industry analysts,
I think the four to five to six year timeframe
is more menable for the industry. We also have to
remember that this will directly confront one of the administration's
(35:47):
other hallmark policies, and this was announced two weeks ago
in the AI Action Plan, And here the White House
is saying very publicly that it wants to prioritize AI
build out, it wants to double down on US infrastructure,
and very interestingly, it also wants to package a lot
of that AI tech stact into separate bundles that it
(36:08):
can then export abroad. It of course will need affordable
inputs at the baseline in order to be able to
export these packages, and very interested to see what the
ultimate price impact is on that particular corner of the
administration's policy.
Speaker 11 (36:25):
And emily some say it is about quantity, it's also
about quality, and when it comes to both of them
Taiwan and South Korea asapause, what do you make off
perhaps equality and quantity that can be expected from the US.
Speaker 12 (36:39):
A couple of weeks ago and the lead up to
the expiration of the reciprocal tariff pause, the Administration has
entered into these arrangements where foreign partners seem to be
under the assumption that they would only be subject to
a fifteen percent teriff freight, and that includes a lot
of these sectoral products like semiconductors. So one question will
actually be whether or not this announcement induces further development
(37:04):
on shore by those countries, or whether or not we'll
have to explore further negotiations. I also will note that
the United States actually does not import a lot of
semi conductors directly. Most semi conductors actually enter the United
States in finished goods. So these are items like iPhones
or laptops, and so it'll be interesting to see how
(37:27):
the Administration starts to calculate the actual value and whether
or not each finished item will be subject to that
one hundred percent care free.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures, in
conversation with Bloomberg's has Linda Ahmen. I'm Charlie Pelacascius weekdays
for the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get
your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
Amy, Thank you, Charlie. And that does it for this
edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning,
five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets
over sea and the news you need to start your day.
I Mammie Morris, stay with us. Top stories and global
business headlines are coming up right now
Popular Podcasts
Fudd Around And Find Out
UConn basketball star Azzi Fudd brings her championship swag to iHeart Women’s Sports with Fudd Around and Find Out, a weekly podcast that takes fans along for the ride as Azzi spends her final year of college trying to reclaim the National Championship and prepare to be a first round WNBA draft pick. Ever wonder what it’s like to be a world-class athlete in the public spotlight while still managing schoolwork, friendships and family time? It’s time to Fudd Around and Find Out!
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.