Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. Markets
in Japan are reacting to the election over the weekend
of Sinai taka Ichi as the leader of the Liberal
Democratic Party. Take Ichi will soon become Japan's first female
prime minister, and she's likely to be supportive of more
fiscal stimulus. She's already expressed an aversion to further rate
(00:33):
hikes from the Bank of Japan. In a moment, we'll
get the views of Christopher Lafleur. He is the chairman
of am CHAM Japan. But we begin in Singapore with
Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. Paul is executive editor for Asia Markets. Paul,
thank you so much for being with us. Obviously, the
equity market is rallying. We've got a much weaker yeen.
It seems as though markets were a little surprised by
(00:55):
this outcome.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
I think that you know, although Takaichi had the pulp votes,
the way that the the LDP uses its leader is
a little bit complicated and also requires lawmakers to give
their nod, and they had been seen as being more
minded to go with more of a centrist choice and hence,
(01:17):
you know, I think the market was caught out a
little bit by the fat attack AHG. And the end
secured the victory. And you know, what we're seeing is,
like you said, a pretty violent reaction, the end weakening
more than one percent from the open, and the flip
side of that being a rally in equities markets. And
I think that it's two things. One, she's seen as
(01:38):
being likely to, as you said, push for more fiscal stimulus,
which should be supportive for the economy and supported supported
for equity markets. But at the same time, if she
is discouraging in some way the Bank of Japan from
pushing those interest rates higher than that may cause the
end to weaken as we've been seeing, and that also
may help exporters in Japan when they're selling they go abroad.
(02:00):
The key, though, the key thing to watch is the
reaction in the bond market, which is at the moment
a little bit uncommitted. That will really tell us whether
you know, she can get away with her policies, because
if there's enough fiscal space to do it, or if
investors are going to keep on demanding higher yields, If
the Japanese government wants to increase borrowing in order to
(02:21):
fuel that fiscal stimulus.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
Yeah, no doubt about that. But I'm curious to get
your view on the probability of the BOJ remaining on
the sidelines now in the face of inflation that's well
above target. I mean, I understand that there is concern
about trying to keep the cost of credit as low
as possible, but Japan really really doesn't have much to
worry about on a relative basis. I mean, interest rates
(02:43):
are still very, very low. The bigger problem is inflation.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
It's true, and inflation is unpopular in Japan, and part
of what takeis she wants to do is to help
people to manage those inflation risks. So it's an interesting
one from that perspective. The Bank of Japan and has
been pretty clear and pletly adamant that as long as
the economy turns out the way that it's expecting, then
it will continue to push interest rates higher. And it
feels like it wants to raise interest rates again sooner
(03:12):
rather than later. You know, is going on a pretty
slow course as it adjusts to this new environment where
it's able to have higher interest rates. It's still being
very cautious in the way that it moves, and yet
you know, kind of we've heard from several policymakers that
have been hinting at the idea that it's time to
get going again. So whether the politics leaves them wanting
(03:36):
to wait a little bit longer and just see what
comes out before they act or not, could you know,
kind of give us some sort of way to trade
around it. And I think that people will be very
attumed to what the BOJ policymakers are saying in terms
of how they trade government bonds and currencies. Going forwards
from here.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
I want to change gears talk a little bit about
the crypto space because over the weekend early Sunday in
the States, we had bitcoin setting an all time high
and the positivity seems to be continuing now in Asian trading.
What are people saying about bitcoin?
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Yes, so I don't think that the two are completely unconnected, Doug.
I think, you know, one of the sort of hot
topics at the moment in not just the crypto space,
but in financial markets in general, is this idea of
a debasement trade that people don't want to own fiat
currencies and so they're looking for alternative assets to that.
Not very keen on owning the dollar because of the
(04:30):
pressures from the US government shut down, the disagreements there
and the fact that the Fed is going to be
cutting interest rates. Not really keen on only the yeen
And of course for all of the reasons that we
discussed about tak Aechiese government and the boj not keen
on owning the euro either. That's got its own fiscal
problems at the moment, particularly if you look at France
where the government seems to be in this complete sort
(04:51):
of standoff at the moment and a bit of a gridlock,
not able to get things done. British pounds, you know,
has its own problems as well that we've been talking
about for a long time. There's a budget coming up
in November that the market is anxious about. People thinking,
you know, we don't really want to own any of those.
We would much rather own gold, which continues to skyrocket higher,
pushing towards four thousand dollars. Announce we want to own
(05:12):
bitcoin because you know, that gets us out of the
other currency system, and so we're seeing recordis in the
crypto space as well. I think beyond that, you know,
if you look at silver and other precious metals, they're
also having a good right. So I think that you know,
that's one of the narratives, and it's standing the market
in good stead for people that are looking at alternatives
outside of the currency space.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
At the moment, Well, you mentioned the government shut down
here in the US. I think it's fair to say
it's created somewhat foggy conditions given the lack of official
government data. I mean, the employment report from last Friday
has already been delayed. If this shutdown were to persist,
maybe the consumer Price Index report is in doubt that's
due on October fifteenth. The question is whether markets have
(05:53):
become a little complacent in the face of all of this.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
So well, I suppose, you know, if you're thinking about
equity space where stocks continue to go higher, then you
could certainly detect a little bit of complacency there. Although
I think that the stocks narrative is really about this
AI enthusiasm. Every day we seem to be seeing more deals,
more agreements, more tie ups between the various players involved,
and every single one of those seems to give the
(06:17):
market a new catalyst for pushing towards higher highs. I think,
you know, the other thing that you have to keep
in your mind and factor into those calculations and considerations
is if the Federal Reserve policymakers don't get any more
new information from those sort of public data points and
only from the private sector surveys and so on, does
(06:40):
that make them less likely or more likely to continue
with the path of cutting interest rates. Feels like, you know,
if you looked at the dot plot at the end
of the last FED meeting, there were more people minded
to pursue another two cuts over the course of the year.
On the other hand, we don't know how many of
those were voting members, and some of the policymakers we've
(07:00):
heard from still been quite adamant about their caution over
inflation risks. So I feel like it would be a
very difficult FED decision at the end of the month
without a little bit more data. On the other hand,
if we do get that inflation data and it does
show the inflation is starting to moderate or at least
holding in check, then probably the market will believe that
the FED is going to keep on cutting interest rates,
(07:20):
in which case you could say that we're not complacent,
We're just reasonably priced for that.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Well, we'll see about that because at the end of
the week we'll get the Consumer Centerate survey from the
University of Michigan, So maybe a view on job opportunities
as well as inflation expectations. I have to ask you
about the higher oil price that we're seeing right now.
We had an OPEC plus meeting over the weekend. Not
really surprising that the cartel agreed to a modest increase
(07:46):
in production beginning in November. What are people saying about
the price action of the oil market today?
Speaker 3 (07:51):
Yeah, modest, I think is the keyword to focus on
their doug because although people were expecting them to continue
to increase production that after we had the big drop
in prices over recent days, they responded by deciding, you know,
not to go full tilt on continuing to push that
output higher. And so maybe that suggests that there's a
(08:12):
little bit of a price floor objective some of that
sort of to play in mind at the back of
the OPEK officials minds. And therefore, you know, although we're
going to continue to see more oil seeping into the market,
you know, perhaps it will be at that slightly st
more slow, slow pace. I think it's interesting on the
supply side as well. We're continuing to see China gobble
(08:33):
up large amounts of the oil that's coming into the market,
and so that actually, you know, it seems like putting
it into storage most likely, although we don't have very
clear data on that, and so that seems to be
counterbalancing a little bit, or at least at helping to
provide that flaw for prices.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
We'll leave it there, Paul, It's always a pleasure. Thanks
very much, Paul Dobson there. Paul is executive editor for
Asia Markets, joining from Singapore. Here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.
Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm dek Krisner.
We continue now with reaction to the victory of Senai
(09:10):
Takichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan.
She's on track to become the country's first female prime minister.
For more on the election, we heard from Christopher Lafleur.
He is the chairman at the American Chamber of Commerce
in Japan. He spoke with Bloomberg TV host Cherry On
in April Hong on the Asia trade.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Give us your reaction for Satakaichi's win here because you've
had a few conversations with her over the past couple
of years already.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Certainly well over the years, and particularly when she served
as the Minister for Economic Security I in the Japanese government,
we've maintained a very good dialogue with her on the issues.
I recall personally attending a meeting it which she delivered
an excellent speech in fluent English add to our group
(10:02):
to reassure us the Japanese government was fully cognizant of
our concerns with regard to recently enacted Japanese economic security legislation. So,
as I say, we have a good dialogue with her
over the years, and we certainly congratulate her on becoming
the Liberal Democratic Party's first female leader. And as you've vindicated,
(10:28):
we'll see what the Diet decides later this month, but
of course there is high expectation that she will eventually
become the next Prime Minister of Japan.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
Her fluent English, as you mentioned, could also come in
handy if she does in fact get to meet President
Trump later in the month. She has talked about potentially
renegotiating the trade deal if needed. What do you make
of that?
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Well, I think that was a reference to a comment
she made in one of the debates that was held
for the LDP presidential candidates. But I think she was
carefully coveyating that, and I expect that she and her
government will continue to try to implement faithfully the agreement
(11:19):
between the two governments, because I'm quite confident that she
wants to maintain the best possible relationship with the United States.
You'll recall that she was a very strong supporter and
indeed served in the cabinet of former Prime Minister Abbe,
who is also well known for having a strong relationship
(11:40):
with President Trump. So I expect that she will start
off by having just as strong a relationship going forward.
Speaker 5 (11:50):
What about the relationship with other regional trading partners, we
know what has stannced towards China.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
Might look like.
Speaker 5 (11:59):
Are you expecting any developments towards South Korea or even
to China against this backdrop.
Speaker 4 (12:07):
My sense was that she took great care during the
party presidential campaign to avoid creating an additional tension in
Japan's relations with its East Asian neighbors, and I would
anticipate that as Prime Minister, particularly given her other priorities,
(12:29):
that that will continue to be her posture.
Speaker 5 (12:32):
What are you hearing among businesses about the potential for
addressing some of the challenges that they're already facing, including
cost pressures or labor issues. We know what she said
previously about immigration as well.
Speaker 4 (12:49):
Right, The expectation, of course, is that she's going to
pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy, and I think for
businesses in general in Japan that's going to be a positive.
You've already seen in the Tong Kan a few days
ago that Japanese business confidence is picking up now that
(13:14):
the US Japan tariff steel has been concluded, and I
think her ascension to the leadership will further encourage business
to invest, even as she considers ways that the government
can be more supportive.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
What are some of the supportive government measures that your
business members would like to see from this new administration.
Speaker 4 (13:43):
Well, we're very must focus on general business conditions in Japan,
of course, and naturally we would like to see our
markets here expand further as they do that. We also
want to continue encouraging the Japanese government to continue its
structural reform efforts. And in this area also, I think
(14:05):
it's important to recall that the new LDP president was
very much a supporter of former Prime Minister Abbe's Albinomics program,
which included very importantly encouraging further structural reforms in Japan.
Along those lines, we'd certainly want to encourage the Japanese
(14:29):
government to ensure that it's becoming economic security measures continue
to take the importance of foreign company participation and eleven
level playing field as a key element. We certainly would
like to see improved policies encouraging innovation and stable supply
(14:52):
in the pharmaceuticals area, and we certainly also hope that
as the Japanese economy further picks, held an even greater
market for aerospace products from US manufacturers.
Speaker 5 (15:08):
Christopher, thank you so much for your insight. It's great
to hear from you on what her policies might entail
in what the business community wants to see. Christopher Laflow
is Cham d a AmCham Japan.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,
or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore
(15:44):
and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg