Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Dan Schwartzman. Doug
Chrisner's off. This week, we begin in Japan, where sanay
At Takaichi has become the country's first female prime minister.
Takaichi vowed to strengthen the nation's economy and defense capabilities
and enhance relations with the US. However, Takaichi faces several challenges.
Those include discontent over the cost of living, dealing with
(00:33):
the looming visit by US President Donald Trump, and reviving
the fortunes of a ruling party that has lost its dominance.
From more, we hear from Nintao Nishimura, senior associate in
the Asia Group's Japan practice. He spoke to Bloomberg Xaviril
hon Ganna Bell Jewelers on the Asia Trade.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
So, first off, we are seeing her appointing party rivals
in order to secure her leadership in some ways, What
do you make off her strategy so far?
Speaker 4 (01:01):
First of all, thank you for having me. I think
this is a sign of the reality in the Liberal
Democratic Party where any new leader, as we've seen also
with Shigiri Shiva, has to sort of balance out the
power dynamics within the party, and for Takaichi, who won
this election not in an outright majority but in a contest,
(01:26):
has to try and keep unity within the party by
bringing in her rivals. She named two of her rivals
in the or three of the rivals in the cabinet
and also had her other arrival on Takai Ki Kobashi,
in her party leadership lineup. So clearly this is a
sign that she is not on solid foundations and has
(01:49):
to balance out relations with different parts of the party.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
So there could be a lot of negotiation, maybe horse trading.
What is that going to mean for policy making under
her administration and does that affect the expectation that we
will see expansionary fiscal policies.
Speaker 4 (02:11):
I think to an extent it's it might be unavoidable
at the beginning at least to see certain stimulus happening.
Because of the need for inflation relief measures, the diet
will discuss and deliberate on FISCO year twenty twenty five
supplemental budget in order to finance the inflation relief measures,
(02:32):
and because the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party do
not have an outright majority in both houses, they would
need to work with the opposition parties, and naturally that
would require a lot of compromise and probably more spending
along the lines of what opposition parties want. And so
in that sense there will be I think initially a
boost in spending. But Takaiji has mentioned a keyword which
(02:57):
is proactive but responsiblescal So despite this notion that she
is a pro spending lawmaker, she is definitely going to
have to keep in mind the debt ratio and other
factors that will to a certain extent constrain her ability
to spend government budget.
Speaker 5 (03:18):
Yeah, as you said that the partnership that the LDP
has with Ishin isn't really like the coalition that they
had with Kamatos So what's that process of trust building
going to look like and how long do you think
it will take as well?
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Well?
Speaker 4 (03:33):
I think the first big test will be this extraordinary
diet session that started this week. Ishin has been quite
clear that they are not going to jump into a
straight coalition like Komoto, and this would be more of
a confidence and supply agreement in which they would vote
for the LDP or Takaichi in no confidence motions and
(03:56):
on the budget, but on bills on individual legislation, that's
a different story. So essentially Takaichi will have to negotiate
with Ishin and also with other opposition parties to pass legislation,
and so in that sense, the trust building will take
some time, and I think at least until next year's
budget is passed in March. I think Ishin will be
(04:17):
monitoring to see if the policy agreement that the two
parties signed on Monday is carried out. And there are
a couple of non negotiables that Ishin has mentioned, such
as the second Capital Initiative, reducing social insurance fees and
also reducing the number of diet members by ten percent,
which all of these are going to be some challenging
(04:40):
issues that other opposition parties will not want to go
forward with. So this is a tough kind of environment
for Takaitu to be in, but this is where her
leadership will really be put to the test.
Speaker 5 (04:52):
Yeah, there's only a lot of different areas still we
be worked out between Ishan and the ALDP.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Both of these.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
Parties are perceived as big, more right leaning. Does that
also create a barrier for them or an obstacle to
deal with other parties in Parliament when they're trying to
also pass any measures around social security or cost of
living issues, for instance.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
I think that could play a factor in some parties
outright just opposing anything the LDP and Ishin does. There's
already been a lot of noise around the both parties
desired to amend the constitution and insert the Japan Self
Deforces Defense Forces name into the Constitution. There's also talks
(05:35):
of completely overhauling the defense export rules that currently permit
only five categories of exports. So there's clear moves already
and a sense that this new government arrangement will be
much more conservative and also hawkish on defense and security policy,
(05:56):
and that could affect how certain parties vote in the diet.
The same time, because the minority government is only a
few seats shy of the of the majority line, there
are a couple of conservative small conservative parties and also
independents who might be actually more willing to work with
a government that's willing to go beyond what the LDP
(06:16):
was able to do with a party like Kometo.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
That was zen Taaro Nishi Muda, senior associate from the
Asia Group's Japan Practice, speaking of Bloomberg's April Honkan Annabel
Jewelers on the Asia Trade. Coming up is Sanae Takaichi,
Japan's new Iron Lady. We'll hear more from Bloomberg opinion
columnists Gar road Reading. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast.
(06:44):
I'm Dan Schwartzman. Doug Krisner's off this week. As you
already heard, Sanae A. Takaichi has just been confirmed to
Japan's first female prime minister. But more important than her
gender might be her taste for headbanging in music and politics.
That's according to Bloomberg opinion columnist road Read. He spoke
about it with Bloomberg Xander Bell Drulers in April.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Hun.
Speaker 5 (07:03):
I love this connection that you're making so drawer out
for us, and I think at least we can say
we know that she likes playing the drums to relieve stress.
I'm sure she's had a lot to want to pick
the sticks up on in the last ten days.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Well, actually, to your point there, Tuki, she herself says,
or has said in the past, that she does not
get stressed from work. She says that all of her
stress comes from her domestic responsibilities, but Obviously she's in
a bit of a bigger role now, so let's see
how she handles that. Yeah, so I'm trying to draw
the line here between her choice in music and her
(07:39):
way of conducting herself. The football manager Jurgen Club, one
of the most successful football managers in the past decade.
He described his way of playing football, this high intensity,
high pressure game of football, as a heavy metal football.
So I'm attempting to coin heavy metal politics as the
way the Taki. She will do things high intense, high pressure,
(08:01):
and we saw that with her willingness to take risk
in order to become Prime Minister in the first place,
allowing longtime coalition partner Colmeto was to leave the coalition
and to join a new risky coalition with Ishian. That
is maybe a sign of some of the risk taking
and some of the bold choices that we'll see her
(08:21):
taking now that she has the top job.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
How might this inform as well, not just how she
engages with opposition parties or party rivals, but with the
US President, because that meeting might be among the immediate
priorities for her next week.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Yes, it's certainly quite unusual, I think for a Japanese
Prime Minister to become Prime Minister, and within less than
a week, I think she will probably be meeting with
President Trump, and obviously at a time of some tension.
You know, there's a lot of not too much tension
(09:03):
on the surface, shall we say, But obviously there's still
a lot of things to work out with the trade
deal that was agreed earlier with the Ishiba administration. So far,
I think the signs are are pretty positive. Unfortunately, Takichi,
to the best of my knowledge, does not play golf,
unlike her mentor the legions of Abe, who obviously struck
(09:23):
a great relationship with President Trump on the golf course.
But I do think that they'll probably have a lot
in common. The President is known to like, you know, characters,
I think like Takeichi will be people who profess to
be patriots as she does. So I don't envision too
much immediate tension there. But obviously there is a lot
(09:45):
to hammer out with the trade deal that the previous
government signed on to. I think one good sign that
we saw on that is that Takeichi has retained the
services of the Minister in charge of of signing that
trade deal, Rios Akazawa, who is now going to be
in charge of the trade ministry, so she'll be able
(10:06):
to lean on his knowledge of that deal.
Speaker 5 (10:11):
Another immediate challenge is also going to be quelling some
concerns around cost of living crisis, for instance, just inflation
generally sticking with that idea of her love for the drums,
do you think that that's something that can help endear
her to devoters in any way?
Speaker 1 (10:31):
I do think she she has two challenges, as you say, so.
The first one has to be tackling inflation. And she
said as much herself at her first press conference last night,
where I thought she conducted herself quite well. She shied
away from, you know, any suggestions of controversial areas, came
off as being very pragmatic. I think that's one fear
(10:53):
that maybe some sections have. Is she going to, you know,
to go down some of her more nationalistic shall we say, tendencies.
She kept all of that in check anyway last night.
But she does need to do something. She needs to
be seen to be doing something to tackle inflation, and
especially tackling inflation at the checkout food. Inflation is the
(11:18):
big thing that is stressing voters out, shall we say.
She has said that's going to be her top priority.
Let's see how much she could actually get done. Ishibo
was also attempting to tackle it. Didn't really get much
done in the end, talked a lot about these cash
handouts that are now not going to happen. Takechi is
(11:39):
now going to compile an extra budget, and top top
line item in that budget has to be something that
is going to that household are going to be able
to feel that is going to help them feel better
about the inflation that Japan is undergoing.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
That was Bloomberg Opinion columnist Gerode Reedy speaking to Bloomberg's
April Hunk and Annabelle Drulers.
Speaker 4 (12:01):
Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
Asia Edition podcast.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,
and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast
YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. Join us again
tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong
to Singapore and Australia.
Speaker 4 (12:25):
I'm Doug Chrisner, and this is Bloomberg