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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. Tech
is once again dominating the conversation in markets, especially as
it relates to AI in Japan. Shares and soft banker
trading higher on where the company is studying potential acquisitions,
including the data center operator SWITCH. We are told SoftBank
has held discussions with leadership at Switch and the company's
(00:35):
been conducting some due diligence on Switch. Stateside, we had
some tech weakness that seemed to be the blemish on
an otherwise record setting session, with the S ANDP and
the Dow Industrial Average each closing at all time highs. However,
the Nasdaq comp was in retreat thanks to a drop
in Oracle. Those shares were down nearly eleven percent on
(00:55):
concern over Oracle's plans for vast capital outlays on infrastructure.
For a closer look at the price action, I'm joined
by Steven Schoenfeld. He is the CEO of Market Vector Indexes. Stephen,
thank you so much for making time to chat with me.
What did you make of the price action today?
Speaker 3 (01:14):
It was encouraging despite Oracles drop and holding the nastac back.
I think, you know, there's definitely rotation. Value stocks are strong,
small cap is actually leading, and you know, we didn't
have a record in Nasdaq, but we didn't in the
(01:34):
Dow and S and P. Also, the transports are at
new highs they haven't been in almost two years, so
it feels like a healthy market. The jitters are mostly
in tech, just like you just said with Broadcom.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
So are they justified though? I mean, if you look
at what Broadcom had to say, EPs for the quarter
was above estimates for the latest quarter. However, the outlook
for revenue where AI is concerned, maybe did not meet
the most lofty expectations. Do we need to discuss valuations here?
Speaker 3 (02:07):
I think we can, because you know, tech is still
priced to perfection, and US and developed markets in general
are very very highly valued historically, right, So the talking
points I sent you, you know, tell the story. Even
though emerging markets have had a good year, they're still
(02:27):
dramatically cheaper than developed markets, and US is really the
tip of the sphere of developed market valuations.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
So, Steven, if you're optimistic on the US equity market
going into the new year, I'm curious about how much
of that is predicated on much easier FED policy. Just
the other day we had the Fed maintaining its outlook
for just one rate cut in twenty twenty six. That
despite the fact that the swaps market is sticking to
the bet for two rate cuts in the new year.
(02:59):
What is your view on the outlook for rates?
Speaker 3 (03:01):
You know, I think they'll be a new FED president,
and I think that will have some influence. The market
reacted well to the you know, it was like a
soft talkish kind of press conference by Powell. So I
think I do think the market will be okay with either.
(03:22):
I think the fundamentals of earnings and that the US
economy is not as weak as people feared, even as
recently as a month ago, is what's holding up the market.
You would not you would not see small cap and
value performing the way they are if that was the case.
If that wasn't the case.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
So you mentioned emerging markets a moment ago. What's your
outlook for EM in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Broadly speaking, So, obviously emerging markets are heterogeneous. Different markets
show greater or less potential, but as a whole, the
valuations in emerging markets are really attractive. The forward pe
is about half of the US and developed markets. Cyclically
(04:11):
adjusted PE or CAPE is also in the twelve to
thirteen compared to twenty four to twenty five for developed markets.
And then you look at some specific markets. Brazil has
performed very well despite being hit with US tariffs. India
is one of the few large emerging markets that is flat,
(04:35):
and I believe it has huge potential. And Vietnam has
had a great year, almost up to fifty percent, but
it has a structural change coming up next year. The
potential to be graduate well, not the potential the reality
of being graduated to emerging market status by the Footsea benchmark.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Now, the direction of EM, as we know, often comes
down to the relative strength or weakness of the US dollar.
Today it was a story of dollar weakness, and the
Bloomberg Dollar Spot index right now is on pace for
its third weekly decline. If we can assume the dollar
remains on the back foot, does that necessarily create more
bullishness for you when it comes to EM.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Yeah, that is the case. Emerging market performance is generally
helped by a weaker dollar as well as Emerging market
currencies in general have been strong this year, and we've
had a role reversal the fiscally responsible countries around the world.
In general, it's more emerging markets than developed markets, so
(05:44):
it is the market speaking about the relative health of
emerging markets.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
In my opinion, what's your biggest concern is we go
into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
To start their geopolitical concerns are not only not diminish,
but they've increased. We now have the possibility of a
hot war in the Caribbean as well as continuation of
the Ukraine Russia War. I do expect the Middle East
(06:12):
to be somewhat attenuated compared to the last two years.
I believe the ceasefire will hold, but trade tensions will
continue to be a factor. The US and China are
seeming to signal mutual understanding and accommodation, so that could
be a positive. And it's a midterm election year, there's
(06:36):
a lot of unpredictability about that and what the White
House will do in order to try to maintain a
Republican control of the House and Senate.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
So you've highlighted a few of the risk and given
those risks, maybe you could address some of the more
defensive or perhaps hedging strategies that you're using.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
Right now.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
Sure, well, as a global index provider.
Speaker 5 (07:01):
We.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Encourage investors to use our indexes and make their own decisions,
But what we really strive to do is create asset
class choices for our investors. So, for example, gold and
gold mining stocks as well as silver and silver mining
stocks have been an excellent hedge this year. I do
think the trends in metals and now coppers coming up
(07:25):
are going to continue to be of value. In contrast,
crypto has not added value to anyone's portfolios this year.
It could be a good time to allocate just a
few percentage to diversified crypto. And then finally, emerging markets
broadly defined are definitely a hedge against debt and potential
(07:52):
overvaluation and develop market.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Steve will leave it there, Thank you so much. Steven
Schoenfeld is the CEO at Market Vectors in dex Is
joining us here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back
to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. Uber is
looking for some new avenues of growth in the Asia Pacific,
(08:17):
especially in Japan and Hong Kong, and the focus of
the strategy will involve self driving cars. Uber CEO Derek
Kasper Shahi is in the region. He spoke with Bloomberg's
Annabelle Droolers.
Speaker 5 (08:30):
It's been a very busy week for you today if
you've been Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong. What's doing this
sort of standout so far? The key takeaways, well, the.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Key takeaways for US is growth the Apak market and
in particular the North Asia markets as well. They are
huge growth markets for US. And if you look, for example,
in the rideshare business, over thirty percent of our global
first trips coming into the category come from the Apak region.
(09:01):
The area is growing very quickly, including taxi as well,
which is actually one of our newest products on the platform.
So for me coming here, seeing the teams, meeting with
local business people and regulators and talking about how we
can be part of the future growth of the region
is really what my agenda is.
Speaker 5 (09:22):
Early this year you also put out a statement on
the robot taxi push as well, and so the Middle
East and Asia were the markets for twenty twenty five
to launch, and we've seen of course that initial deployment
in the Middle East already.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
What's happening on the Asia side, well, lots of discussions.
On the Asia side, I think what's really important is
to set up a regulatory framework to go forward. For example,
Hong Kong has various trials and pilots going on, and
in many other markets, we're talking to regulators about how
we can be a part of shaping ride share and
(09:57):
autonomous ride shair going forward. The technol ology is absolutely
getting there. These are the robot driver. It doesn't get tired,
doesn't get distracted, and we very much look forward to
working with various authorities to introduce rod shair into the markets.
We're now live in four markets now as we speak,
in the US and in the Middle East, and I
(10:20):
expect to be in ten plus markets by next year,
and we want those markets to be in the Asia
Pacific region as well.
Speaker 5 (10:28):
Where then, in Asia do you think is the most
likely place.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
We'll see I think that certainly Japan has great potential,
you know, with.
Speaker 5 (10:39):
They are behind on their regulation.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
They are behind in their regulation, but I think that
they also understand that with an aging population, there's a
real need for transportation, not just in the large cities
but in.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
The rural areas.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
And for example, I experienced that personally going to Kaga
city and where we have communal rod share and kind
of took a ride share trip and understood what the
needs are there. So we're talking with various countries regulatory authorities.
I think Japan is going to be part of it.
I certainly hope that Hong Kong is going to be
a part of it. Australia, where we were just talking about,
(11:13):
is a huge market for us. So we're having those
dialogues and I think that the picture will shape up
over the next two years because the technology is definitely
getting there.
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Speaking of Hong Kong, because we do see the trials
that are underweight and they're being conducted by Baydu's Apollogo program.
Would you be looking to work with them on that
or are you working with them on that?
Speaker 1 (11:34):
By Do is a partner of ours, so we partner
with Baidun we ride for example in Abadhabi and expanding
their ponies another partner of ours. So we absolutely expect
to be on the road with all three of them.
When you look at Chinese autonomous technology and the development there,
they are one of the leaders on a global basis,
(11:56):
and for us, we want to partner with a whole
autonomous ecosystem to bring this technology to reality.
Speaker 5 (12:03):
So, just to clarify, you're expecting to ramp up the
markets that you're into ten autonamous driving markets ten plus
yes by next year, and you anticipate that those could
also come from the Asia region.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
They could come from the Asia region, and they could
also involve some of the partners that we talked about.
Speaker 4 (12:19):
By do we ride a pony?
Speaker 5 (12:22):
And if not Hong Kong, then where else? Do you
think in Japan? As I said, it's really is behind
on the regulatory.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Side, every major market in which we operate, we are
having discussions with autonomous partners and then most importantly regulators
as to how we can introduce autonomous either in a
pilot way or within some restricted operational domain. You know,
everyone wants this product. It's a product that's delightful in
(12:47):
markets for example, in Atlanta, in Austin and Abu Dhabi.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Our consumers love the product.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
They feel safe, and this technology is hitting primetime now
in every major city in the world.
Speaker 4 (13:00):
To be a part of that.
Speaker 5 (13:00):
Revolution, I do find it interesting by in particular with
the Apollogo program, because they are conducting the trials here,
they're already starting to remove the human drivers across some
of their markets in mainland Shiner and the way that
you can get a buy to apologo ride in mainland
China is often through a buy do control platform. Do
(13:21):
you see that risk of them maybe pursuing that strategy
here instead of teaming up with you on it.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
I don't think it's going to be black and white
in terms of the strategy. I think that there could
be many hybrid approaches, and you know, I compare it
to the food delivery business. For example, we work with
Starbucks or McDonald's that has a direct app and customers
go direct to get the food there. At the same
time they also participate in the marketplace. So I think
(13:49):
the autonomous ecosystem will be the same way. There will
be some direct kind of some customers going direct, and
we think that with the Uber market place, we can
bring the kind of demand that over two hundred million
monthly active platform customers can bring to autonomous, so that
we get those cars on the road and incredibly busy
(14:12):
with very high utilization.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
Let's talk about the US as well, because you're partnering
there with Weimo as well in certain cities. Perfect partner, Yeah,
terrific partnering. Actually in the latest earnings, I think you
said excellent as well. But in some places, Weimo is
expanding into new cities without you and becoming a direct competitor.
And that's something that was highlighted even by Webbush earlier
this week as being a potential risk for your business
(14:37):
next year. How are you assessing that.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Well, I think it's the same example that I gave
you that in some ways the McDonald's app is a
competitor to Uber Eats and the two can coexist. And
it's very very early in the development of autonomous we
have to make sure that we have access to autonomus
technology in the major cities that have the right regulatory
framework to allow autonomous and we're very confident as we
(15:01):
look at our roadmap and we look at our partners.
We have over twenty partners autonomous partners globally that we
will have access to autonomous technologies in the large cities
and markets that really count.
Speaker 5 (15:14):
When you say access to twenty different partners, do you
think that that is the way that the industry will
continue to evolve or do you expect consolidation on the
robotaxi side as well, or the autonomous driving software.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Side we're seeing is this is a trillion dollar plus
market in terms of autonomous mobility. I think delivery eventually
will be of a similar size. And when you have
markets that are that large, you usually don't have winner
take calls.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
It's the same way with these LLM models.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
There are many to choose from, whether it's an open
AI or a Gemini, and I think the same will
be true of autonomous It's an exciting technology, but there
are many players getting to the finish line. We just
have to make sure that the players that we work
with are safe and that again we're working with the
regulators in constructive manner.
Speaker 5 (16:04):
Part of the strength of Uber, of course is your
data mode and just how much information you're collecting on
users and in the rise they're taking and their behavior patterns.
But other competitors in the market, like Way more like
Tests are still continuing to build up that infrastructure as well.
So how secure do you see that data mode being?
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Well, there's nothing secure about the technology space. There's always innovation,
and so we just have to move fast and isay.
Actually the more important factor in Uber is our global coverage.
We are operating in seventy countries. The demand that we're
bringing every day, We've got millions of consumers opening our
app all over the world, and we can point that
(16:44):
demand not just to our current driver partners and delivery partners,
but as autonomous comes in to autonomous partners.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
You know, these are.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Very expensive cars, it's a very expensive technology, and you
want to amortize the upfront, spend it as many transactions
as possible. And Uber certainly is the leader around the
world in terms of the demand that we can point
to our autonomous partners.
Speaker 5 (17:08):
Yeah, when you talk about a capital and just general
capital raising plan, an interesting move that you made earlier
this year was raising one point two billion dollars by
selling those exchangeable senior bonds linked to your stake in
Aurora for a few details in that one, but do
you see yourself doing that again in twenty twenty six
something similar again just to it was really seen as
(17:29):
an innovative and creative way I guess to raise money.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Well, we have a very creative team. I think the
good news for us is we're now free cash flowing
close to ten billion dollars, and we expect that to
increase substantially over the next couple of years. So through
a combination of the substantial free cashroow that we have
and also monetizing some of the equity stakes that we
have in other companies. Now it's over ten billion dollars.
(17:54):
We think we have plenty of capital to be able
to continue to invest in our autonomous technology part or
building out a fleet presence and or vehicles across the
autonomous ecosystem so that we can continue to be a
leader in the space.
Speaker 5 (18:10):
You're well capitalized. That's sort of taking away from that,
But would you look to do something similar with your
stakes in DD and GRAB in particular.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
I think we'll be opportunistic.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Certainly, we love GRAB and it's a strategic partner of ours.
D D of course hasn't gone public yet, so to
the extent we have an opportunity, we will look to.
You know, we call it recycling the investments that we've made.
But at the same time, we don't need to do
that because the company continues.
Speaker 4 (18:38):
To throw off cash flow. We have a lot of
options ahead of us.
Speaker 5 (18:42):
I want to talk about also the sparsa geography's strategy
and the importance of that. Can you maybe spell it
out a little bit for people exactly what you mean
by that because it is interesting, as you make sort
of a push into lots of different centers, it actually
seems to be less the centers that are doing well
for you as a company.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Well, the urban centers continue to grow. But I do
think that we as I reflect on Uber's growth, we
used to be a big city company, and what we're
seeing is there's enormous demand for both mobility and delivery
outside of the large cities, in the more sparse markets,
the suburbs, et cetera. And our growth in the sparse
(19:24):
markets is anywhere from two to three times faster for
mobility and delivery than in the big urban markets, even
though the urban markets are growing at the same time.
Some governments actually need access to mobility. You know, there
isn't great taxi service in some of these rural destinations
in Japan, bus services is also not readily available, so
(19:49):
you know, as Uber, obviously we run a business, but
we want to be there for stakeholders and we want
to help address some of the needs of the government
in Japan. Particular, rural transportation is a real need, and
we wanted to step up and give back to Japanese
society because that market has been such a great market
for us, and that's what communal ride share in these
(20:11):
rural destinations like Carga City is all about. I experienced
it myself. The countryside is absolutely beautiful and you know,
our driver was so thankful. Assually runs a soba shop
that's on Uber Eats as well. He delivers for Uber Eats.
He's a part of our ecosystem and it's amazing to
see that happen not just in the big cities but
also in a lot of small cities and rural destinations.
Speaker 5 (20:32):
What do you make then for India in particular, because
of course you big competitor there is rapid of and
then they've been very successful with a slightly different operating model,
but including going down into the lower tier or solar
tier cities, how do you also stay competitive there? And
does that sparse a geography strategy also fit for India?
Speaker 4 (20:52):
Yeah, very much so so with India.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Really the fastest growing part of the Indian market is
two wheelers and three wheelers, and the business man is different.
Actually it's not a commission model, but it's actually a
subscription model as well. Rapido's a real upstart there, but
over the past months we've been pushing back against them,
and India continues to be a hugely promising market for us,
(21:14):
so we're very happy about the recent results that we're seeing.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
That is Uber CEO Derek Koswershahi speaking with Bloomberg's Annabelle
Droolers in Hong Kong here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast.
Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak
Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story
shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You
(21:39):
can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,
or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for
insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore
and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner, and this is Bloomberg