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November 27, 2025 • 13 mins

Tokyo's inflation held steady in November, keeping the Bank of Japan on track for an interest rate hike in coming months. Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the capital advanced 2.8% this month from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Friday, as gains in electricity costs accelerated while those for processed food slowed. That was a tad stronger than the median economist forecast of 2.7% and matched the result for the previous month.

And - China's real estate sector suffered another blow after China Vanke Co. proposed delaying repayment on a local bond, sending some of its notes plunging to record lows and fueling concerns about Beijing's willingness to support even the largest distressed developers. For more on what is moving the markets in Asia, we spoke to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. 

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. It's
the final trading day in November, and earlier we got
several key data points for the Japanese economy. First, there
was Tokyo CPI. Core inflation in the Japanese capital was
up in the month of November at an annual rate
of two point eight percent. Now, core excludes fresh food,

(00:32):
but the forecast was only for an increase of two
point seven percent, So a bit hotter than expected in
that regard, and this obviously would support a potential rate
hike from the Bank of Japan. For a closer look
now at markets in the Asia Pacific, I'm joined by
Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. Paul is Executive editor for Asia Markets.
He joins from our studios in Singapore. So what do

(00:54):
you think is this enough, this reading on core CPI
for Tokyo enough to move the needle when we were
considering a boj raid hike in December.

Speaker 3 (01:03):
It still feels to me a little bit, Doug, like
it's too early for the Bank of Japan. You know,
they've backed down, they've been reticent they've taken their time
so far. Yes, there's plenty of evidence that there's an
opportunity here to raise interest rates, but the market expectation
really isn't there, and they tend not to move when

(01:23):
that isn't priced in. And I think that there's a
couple of reasons. One, they don't want to get away,
get in the way of the politics and let Takaichi
kind of set out her plan and her course before
they make their next move. They don't want to slow
the economy too much while she's still bedding in, as
it were. And I think that the other reason is

(01:43):
that their longer term outlook for inflation is that it's
going to slow and come back towards target as well,
so they want to be a little bit careful on
that too. Now. You know, that's despite the evidence that actually,
you know, the inflation is still quite high in the
cost of living is rising, and food price inflation, which
isn't included in the core number, is also high at
the moment. And one of the things that Takaichi actually

(02:04):
wants to do is to put in place measures to
kind of counter that on the fiscal side rather than
on the munetar site. So My view is, and I
guess the market view is that the Bank of Japan
isn't getting ready to move in December, but probably at
the start of next year would be a more realistic
kind of a timeline. And you can see that by
the way in the yen in particular, which remains kind

(02:27):
of weakened under pressure rather than starting to appreciate again.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
From what I understand, Governor Uda will be speaking next
week and we'll see whether or not he endorses the
notion of a rate hike. I found it interesting that
some of the other data points for Japan were far
above forecast. Industrial output at a gain of one point
four percent the street was looking for contraction, and the
retail sales number, with an annual increase of one point

(02:51):
seven percent, was almost double forecast. So there is a
lot to be said about the health of the Japanese
economy despite this situation with tariffs that have been imposed
by the US.

Speaker 3 (03:04):
And that week, that yin that I was talking about
suddenly helps that as well, kind of gives the exporterers
in particular a little bit more of a boost. It's
an interesting situation in the economy at the moment sort
of half looks good half doesn't look quite so good,
and you know, kind of a little bit like we
see in the US with that case shaped economy. You know,
there's there's pockets where where things are looking better than

(03:25):
in other places there. So you know, we've seen in
the stock market pretty decent signs of strength as well,
but there's lots of tensions playing out under the surface,
particularly in the currency market and also of course in
the Japanese government bond space. Really importantly, this week we
heard some more about the extra spending plans from the government,
what it plans to do, how it plans to finance it.

(03:48):
They haven't yet told us exactly how they plan to
allocate the extra cash that they need to raise, and
that will include some extra sales of government bonds. The
market is asking them to put that in the short
end of the year yield curve and to actually slow
the issue and so of the back end of the
yeal curve where there really isn't that demand. And you've
seen that in the very big increase in longer term
interest rates, which is bad news for Japan because it

(04:10):
raises that over the overall cost of financing on the
long term tea.

Speaker 2 (04:14):
What about tension between Japan and China, particularly after Prime
Minister taka ICHI's comments on Taiwan.

Speaker 3 (04:21):
It's been a fascinating thing to watch, hasn't it. I
think from a market perspective, it's hard to read too
much into it just yet, but certainly this idea that
China had that call with Trump and then Trump had
the call with Takaichi and apparently asked her to just
call things a little bit does talk a lot to
policy between US and China relations, how important it is

(04:44):
for Trump to sell these agricultural products into China, and
also what it means for the long term future viability
prospects and so on in Taiwan itself. And so we
heard this week Taiwan talking some more about their own
spending plans for defense and how you know there's going
to be lots of long term investment going in to
try to protect the island, but it probably is feeling

(05:08):
a little bit more vulnerable at the moment. So I
was watching, actually the implied volatility on the Taiwan dollars
see if there's any pickup in stresses in financial markets there.
So far hasn't really registered too much, but I do
think that it's worth monitoring, particularly if you look at
what the contours of the deal for peace in Russia
and Ukraine might look like and what that might mean

(05:30):
as well for how safe and secure Taiwan feels from
investor's point of view and from a policymakers point of
view as well.

Speaker 2 (05:37):
So as long as we're talking about China, Paul I
think we have to tease out what's been happening in
the real estate sector. Guess it suffered another blow recently
after China Von Kah proposed delaying repayment on a local bond.
Is this just kind of reinvigorating the anxiety that existed
or has existed for years now when it comes to
the property market.

Speaker 3 (05:58):
It is, but it's prising, I think on three fronts.
Maybe one Thanka itself was one of the biggest property
developers in China, and it was seen as a bit
of a bell weather as one of the last kind
of companies standing without having defaulted for the market's potential recovery.
Not only that it has sort of semi or quasi

(06:20):
state links because of some of its shareholders being state
owned companies as well. And yet you know the idea
that it also is struggling to repay local debts, wants
to extends some bond payments. Maybe heading into a more
of a crunch for the bond market is a sign that,
you know that really the real estate market has not
been sorted yet, is still in a great deal of pain,

(06:43):
and it's bad news for bond holders in that company
and in any other company which has yet to default.
It sort of tells you that repayment risks are still
out there and is bad, you know, in terms of
consumer confidence in the wealth effect, because what would really
help reinvict right the consumer in China would be a
little bit more confidence in property given that so much

(07:05):
of the household wealth is tied up in real estate
investments and house ownership. So that sort of wigs as
a cloud on the economy. I think that there's one
other thing that you can look at, though, which is
this idea that actually that might not be such a
terrible thing for the stock market. And it goes like
this one for years and years, the first thing that

(07:25):
Chinese people would look to invest in would be the
real estate market because they saw the chance for continuing
capital appreciation, and that's not been there for several years now.
So that kind of confidence has gone to trusting corporate bonds,
and the bond market in general, where yields are very low,
is not so good at the moment. So three, what's
the viable alternative. Maybe it's the equities market, which has
had a really strong year this year, starting to look

(07:46):
a little bit more appealing for people that are trying
to find somewhere safe to put their cash get some
capital appreciation where they can't go in the real estate
and can't go in the bond markets.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
Paul, when we continue the conversation in a moment, I'd
like to focus a little bit on the FED cutting
interest rates faster than the market previously thought, and maybe
we can talk a bit about Bitcoin above ninety one
thousand for the first time in a week. Speaking here
with Paul Dobson, Executive editor for Asia Markets, on the
Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast.

(08:25):
I'm Doug Prisner speaking with Paul Dobson, Executive editor for
Asia Markets, joining from our studios in Singapore. So much
of what we have seen stateside, Paul, in terms of
this recovery or stability in the US equity market has
been tied to kind of further betting on the FED
cutting interest rates at the December meeting. I think the
probability right now if you look at money markets about

(08:48):
eighty percent. How does that filter into what you're seeing
in the price section in Asia.

Speaker 3 (08:54):
Asia's markets have also been buoyed by this. What we
have is a week a dollar as a result of
the prospects of LOFE US interest rates, and so that's
been boosting currencies in the region, and you have that
sort of knock on effect from the recovery in US
equity markets also feeding into Asia. I think in particular,
obviously the tech market, which has had more of a

(09:14):
wobble than most, starting to find a bit more stability
in because Asia's tech heavy gauges, particularly South Korea, Taiwan
and Japan, are so dependent on those global supply chains
and the prospects for AI development in the US and
globally that the recovery stateside has definitely had a beneficial
impact on Asia's markets as well. So interesting, you know,

(09:37):
it's been such a wobbly month, and yet getting towards
the end of it, I think on a global gauge,
we're only point five percent or thereabouts away from erasing
all of the losses for November, So turning it into
a positive month after all of the question marks that
we've had would definitely be, you know, kind of an interesting.

Speaker 2 (09:52):
Development, particularly when you look at how highly correlated the
AI trade here is in the US, with let's say,
the South Korean equity market and names like sk Heinix
and Samsung and also Taiwan and TSMC.

Speaker 3 (10:08):
Absolutely absolutely this kind of integral kind of part of
the supply chain. I do think there's one interesting sort
of additional thing that we saw over the past week
or so, which is just a little bit of a
fragmentation in terms of how people are viewing a future
of AI, more concerns and doubts about one stack and
more favorable for the other. The Google emergence, the strength

(10:32):
of its new AI programs and the prospect of its
selling some of its chips it's TPUs rather than NA
video chips, has quite of caused a little bit of
a consternation I think among investors who are thinking, hang
on a second, you know, this looks like maybe there's
some viable alternatives to the video and that supply chain
and to open AI and that supply chain, and so

(10:52):
you're starting to see just people thinking about, you know,
where's the best opportunity within tech rather than just trading.
Tech has one big unanimous blot.

Speaker 2 (11:00):
When we look for signs of kind of the risk
appetite returning, you don't have to look any farther than bitcoin.
And right now we're above ninety one thousand for the
first time in about a week in your neck of
the woods, and I'm speaking to you from Singapore. How
is the crypto market used as a leading indicator of
appetite for risk?

Speaker 3 (11:21):
It's really interesting, isn't it. Just how much it feels
a bit like the tail wagging the dog or something
like that at the moment, But how much those movements
in crypto fast trigger movements give you that sort of
insight into which way the wind is blowing. And so
all of this draw down that we've seen has certainly
had more of an impact on mainstream markets than we

(11:41):
might have seen in previous crypto booms and busts. I
do think, you know, it's more of a sentiment driven
thing rather than a particular big wealth effect or anything
like that thing. But I do also think that more
of the real economy is invested in crypto now than
it was previously, so there is some more direct read
across and people have been paying attention to it. Crypto itself, though,

(12:03):
doesn't have that many fundamentals, so it is about sentiments.
So I suppose if you're looking to discern the feel
for the market, then that is a pretty true indicator.

Speaker 2 (12:13):
So I mentioned the data points for Japan earlier Tokyo
CPI along with industrial production and retail sales. What are
the other important data points that you're going to be
looking for on this final trading day in November?

Speaker 3 (12:27):
Oh, good question. We have ECB minutes. People are wondering
are they going to try and squeeze another cutout at
some point. We've seen so many policymakers being adamant that
they're done, and yet maybe some arguments might start to
come on to the horizon again pointing in that direction.
But otherwise I think you know, what's going to be
really interesting just is to see where we get to
a month end. Can markets close out in November in

(12:49):
positive or is it going to be the first down
month that we've had for several months, and what does
that tell us about the prospects for that Santa Ralli
that everybody who's bullish on equities is hoping for it.

Speaker 2 (13:00):
There. It's always a pleasure. Thanks so very much. Paul Dobson,
a Bloomberg Executive editor for Asia Markets, joining from our
studios in Singapore here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks
for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,

(13:20):
and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us
on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere
else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on
the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.
I'm Doug Chrisner, and this is Bloomberg
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